False THINKING
Needless to say, those statements proved to be quite early. More than any goal analysis, it most reflected hopeful thinking. Even then, 12 weeks later, some observers are insisting that the coup is “in end drop”.
Despite its countless difficulties, the junta has proven remarkably resilient. It also controls Myanmar’s financial heartland and the bulk of the population. It is supported by China and Russia, both of whom are providing hands and political defense. The junta enjoys major export revenues and is able to dodge the majority of its sanctions. It has also demonstrated that, when required, it can be flexible, and may affect ceasefire talks with its competitors.
The criticism movement has made significant defense gains, but it still has squabbled over strategic goals. Although the tribal armed groups and NUG have a common objective, little has been agreed on other issues. Despite military successes, the opposition also suffers from a lack of sources. The NUG has been unable to secure destructive assistance or official recognition from any international institutions.
What will happen in 2025 is a challenge to foresee. Myanmar has always been able to surprise spectators. One important factor to observe, however, will be the continuing devotion and unity of the armed forces, which holds the key to the regime’s success. There are obviously deep holes in the Tatmadaw but, to time, it has maintained its domestic discipline and, so-called “defectors” away, obeyed the regime’s purchases.
In that respect, however, the detection last year of a latent recruitment law constitutes a major gamble. Great care has been taken for years to shape and influence the thinking of the armed troops rank and file. Therefore, the introduction of more than 20 000 angry and possibly mutinous men and women, who are probably all trained and armed, must be seen as a real threat. It suggests that the military’s workforce shortfall is still a significant issue.