In this author’s view, Jokowi has implemented this strategy so that Prabowo and Ganjar would clear the first round of the presidential election and go head-to-head in a second round.
For months, various credible polls have indicated that none of the three leading candidates – Prabowo, Ganjar, or Anies – will be a dominant contender sweeping up more than 50 per cent of the national vote.
By touting Ganjar and Prabowo as a possible successor, Jokowi might be hoping that both would easily advance to the run-off. Often in third place in recent polls, former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, who is running on a campaign platform as the candidate of change and is clearly Jokowi’s least favoured, is expected to lose in a three-way race.
Given his huge popularity, Jokowi’s clear endorsement of either Ganjar or Prabowo would certainly influence the 2024 election outcome. Two prominent survey organisations, LSI and SMRC, recently reported that public approval of Jokowi has reached 82 per cent.
JOKOWI’S PERSONAL STAKE
In recent polls, increases in support for Prabowo might be attributable to Jokowi’s repeated endorsement of Prabowo as a potential candidate, while Ganjar’s popularity decreased especially after he (and PDI-P) opposed Israel’s young athletes’ participation in the under-20 FIFA World Cup (originally planned to be held in Indonesia) earlier this year.