The empty fighting between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and its largest coalition partner, Bhumjaithai, has prompted an opposition group to go on the defense, according to observers.
Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai have not experienced a more difficult relationship since forming the alliance more than two years ago.
Over the years, the two parties have come to terms with one another, starting with Bhumjaithai’s attempt to legalize marijuana, which Pheu Thai attempted unsuccessfully to overturn under Srettha Thavisin’s management, moving from the election law’s dual majority necessity, which Pheu Thai wanted to change to a second majority need, to the most recent casino legalization bill, which Pheu Thai is pushing hard but has met resistance from Bhumjaithai.
The fighting had put the two parties ‘ connection to the check, as had the claims of land encroachments by leaders of the two events. According to the spectators, the allegations were rumored to have been made by members of the two parties as part of a plot to prevent one party from gaining more democratic bargaining power than the other.
Despite both events minimizing their love-hate marriage, there has been more rumors among experts that the state, in its present form, does not serve out its four-year name.
Debate was rife that Bhumjaithai, with 70 MPs to its name, was about to be thrown out of the partnership. But, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the party’s leader, has said that the party will not be allowed to attend, at the very least for the time being.
The watchers said it is still to be seen whether Ms. Paetongtarn’s confidence may be valid given that her father, previous top Thaksin Shinawatra, has a lot of influence in Pheu Thai and is accused of being the wire puller.
Many political experts have conjured up a scenario in which Bhumjaithai is replaced as a coalition partner by the 150-MP main opposition People’s Party ( PP ).
The coalition may control a pleasant majority if the two largest events came together. With 36 tickets and the 25-MP Democrat Party, a Pheu Thai-PP empire could actually afford to clean the ultraconservative United Thai Nation Party.
Yet, the experts agreed that the possibility of the PP being enthused by the prospect of joining Pheu Thai and playing second fiddle is isolated, considering there are hardly two years left before the next general election.
The PP has every reason to believe it may continue to be in opposition and have the advantage over Pheu Thai, which is increasingly under pressure for failing to stop the country’s vital industries, including crops, where farmers of important vegetables are suffering from lower costs.
The PP has never been in power, just like its political president, the Move Forward Party. The presence of a damaged report could be the PP’s ticket to a significant victory in the next general election as some voters are fed up with wheeling and dealing politics and may be tempted to voting for a party which may claim a fresh slate, according to the experts.
Talks about Bhumjaithai and the PP being excluded from the mix have fueled rumors that the Palang Pracharath Party ( PPRP ), which is currently in power, may be re-elected as the government.
However, the party led by former deputy prime minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon is likely to view the PPRP as unforgivable because they were kicked out of the Pheu Thai-led coalition at the end of Srettha Thavisin’s administration.
The PPRP leadership felt the party had been double-crossed by a faction controlled by former PPRP secretary-general Captain Thamanat Prompow, who, along with more than 20 MPs, split from the party over a conflict with Gen Prawit. The PPRP was split down by the departure of the Thamanat group, leaving it with just 20 MPs.
Later, Capt. Thamanat’s group changed to the Kla Dharma Party, which Pheu Thai subsequently chose as a coalition partner after purging the PPRP.
The bitterness evidently still lingers as deputy PPRP leader Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn recently declared the PPRP reuniting with Pheu Thai was out of the question.
We haven’t a single thought about making up with the government, according to our colleagues.
We don’t agree with the casino industry’s [entertainment complex legalization], he said, adding that the government has always been poorly positioned to run the nation and that the highly contentious casino bill being proposed is bound to undermine it.
” When a boat is about to sink, it would be insane to even think about hopping on board.
The Pheu Thai Party has never considered weighing the benefits and drawbacks of the proposed casino project. The hundreds of billions of dollars in baht that the project was going to generate was all that it was interested in, Mr. Chaiwut said.
It’s more than just Thaksin
The medical council of Thailand’s (MCT) decision regarding the controversy surrounding former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s hospital detention is not just about one man’s fate.
Paetongtarn: potential fallout
It is about the very survival of the Pheu Thai-led government and Thaksin’s daughter, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, according to observers.
Due to concerns that the prison sentence may not have been properly enforced, the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions recently ordered an investigation into Thaksin’s detention at the Police General Hospital ( PGH).
The MCT made disciplinary decisions against three doctors who had been transferred from Bangkok Remand Prison and then placed in a six-month hospital after that.
One was given a formal warning, while the other two had their medical licences suspended for providing inaccurate medical information and documents.
In light of the findings from the MCT, there has been a lot of speculating about Thaksin going to prison. If that is the case, it would have a negative impact on Ms. Paetongtarn’s ability to lead the coalition government.
Critics have long accused Ms Paetongtarn, Thaksin’s youngest daughter, who took office in September last year, of lacking independence and requiring “guidance” from her father, if not being his puppet.
The Paetongtarn administration will be dead in the water if Thaksin is imprisoned, according to Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer in political science at Burapha University.
The government is currently under fire for using debt repayment funds to fund the digital wallet scheme, and Thaksin’s imprisonment could derail Ms. Paetongtarn’s political career.
Mr Olarn said this scenario may prompt Thaksin to flee again and could spell doom for the Pheu Thai Party and crush the chances of fugitive former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra returning home. Thaksin claimed that he anticipated that his sister would travel to Thailand this year to celebrate the Songkran festival.
Yingluck fled the nation in 2017, just before the Supreme Court sentenced her to five years in prison for failing to stop government-to-government rice sales that were allegedly corrupt.
Mr Olarn pointed out that in such a scenario, Ms Paetongtarn may also go down with Thaksin and face charges for allegedly lying or concealing her father’s condition.
The Supreme Court’s investigation into Thaksin’s protracted stay is widely regarded as a crucial opportunity to restore public trust in a system of justice that many people believe is flawed, according to the analyst.
Thaksin spent the entire sentence of his jail sentence in the PGH’s premium ward until he was granted parole in February of last year. When he was discharged, he was spotted wearing a neck collar. However, he showed signs of fitness days later, despite the fact that he had just recovered from life-threatening illnesses.
Thaksin’s protracted stay has raised questions about whether the DoC had actually enforced the prison sentence imposed on him.
However, the analyst acknowledged the possibility that Thaksin could be detained at his home under Department of Corrections ( DoC ) regulations approved during the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration.
As the alleged de facto leader of Pheu Thai and allegedly responsible for launching a campaign to defeat the progressive People’s Party, known as the “orange camp,” Thaksin has a chance to escape, according to Mr. Olarn.
” The orange camp needs him to oppose,” the conservatives claim. The Bhumjaithai Party has yet to win the hearts of the middle class. Thaksin will be their best option as long as they can’t find anyone with the same level of respect and credibility as Gen Prayut, who ruled for nine years.
According to Mr. Olarn, the coalition’s failure to resolve its economic issues, border security issues, the southern insurgency, and internal conflicts is putting the government in a state of paralysis.
He said Pheu Thai is trying to regain its image as a defender of democracy by pursuing a probe into alleged vote rigging in last year’s Senate election. However, this action has strained relations with Bhumjaithai.
Mr. Olarn stated that the two parties’ power fight is a high-stakes one, and both will strike deals to defend their own interests.
Under these circumstances, there are growing concerns that some elements might see a chance to reset politics, a reference to a power seizure, he said.
A certain group of people may be considering it, while most people don’t want one [a power seizure]. The analyst claimed that what we are seeing are early indications of a dead-end situation.