Myanmar’s military leader Min Aung Hlaing is on his first visit to China since he ousted the elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021.
The significant losses his regime has suffered in the civil war at the hands of poorly-armed insurgents has raised questions over how long he will remain at the helm.
Thus, the offer to attend China- an important supporter, housemate and Myanmar’s largest investing partner- is important, although it is not a state visit.
Although it is far from a Chinese support of his fatal handling of the post-coup uprising in Myanmar, it does suggest that Beijing considers him as a necessary component of a solution to the conflict it.
Min Aung Hlaing, who is accompanied by a sizable group of government officials and business images, arrived on Tuesday in Kunming, a town in Yunnan’s state with a long border with Myanmar.
He is a participant in a small mountain of the’Greater Mekong Sub-region’s members.
Since the coup, the troubled president has cut a close relationship with a distant figure, and local gatherings, typically attended by Burmese leaders, have shunned him.
The couple overseas outings he has made since 2021 have generally been to Russia, then a fervent ally.
During his visit, he is expected to meet Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who is presiding over the mountain. But this is usually a low-level event, attended by heads of government from other authoritarian governments in the region, for as Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.
China often takes the metaphoric significance of political process really, and it will be aware of the message sent out by Min Aung Hlaing’s appearance at a Chinese-hosted meeting.
Given that Beijing has been a target of the civil war, it may be preparing to wash its arms of Min Aung Hlaing.
The ethnic insurgent alliance which has inflicted the greatest defeats on the Myanmar military operates along the border with China, and launched its offensive a year ago with the declared objective of shutting down scam centres of which thousands of Chinese citizens had become victims.
It was commonly believed that China had given the insurgents the go-ahead to enter and move in after the regime’s refusal to work.
Since then, though, China has tried to grip in the insurgents, to prevent an illegal decline of the military regime in Nay Pyi Daw.
Beijing is known to become urging Min Aung Hlaing to create a schedule for votes that would end military rule. It wants cross-border business restored, and optimistic Chinese investment strategies for Myanmar protected.
Numerous organizations that are battling the military takeover of Myanmar have pledged not to deal with the revolution leaders. They contend that a new national political system must be established and that the army must be put under human control.
The National Unity Government ( NUG), which represents the ousted coup-erased elected administration, has opposed China’s invitation to Min Aung Hlaing’s implicit recognition.
” Myanmar’s citizens want balance, harmony and economic expansion. It is Min Aung Hlaing and his team who are destroying these points”, said the NUG’s director, Kyaw Zaw.
” I am concerned that]the visit ] may unintentionally inspire a misinterpretation of the Chinese government among Myanmar’s public”.
However, the opposition is still far from defeating the dictatorship, and China fears that if it were to fall, even worse panic may result from various military rivalries battling for control.
It looks like China is willing to work with the junta, despite the military regime’s record of brutality and incompetence.
And for now, Chinese-led geopolitics is all there is because European influence is small.
India, Myanmar’s another huge neighbour, has concerned itself mostly with localised boundary issues.
And the work of Myanmar’s Association of South East Asian Nations, which is basically a five-point consensus reached with Min Aung Hlaing just three weeks after his revolt, have failed.
Only China can exert the willpower and control necessary to end Myanmar’s civil war.