SWEEP UNDER RUG
Collin Koh, a security fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, predicted China would continue to respond vigorously to US military reconnaissance patrols but stop short of confrontation.
Even in calmer moments, Chinese forces actively shadow US military patrols, particularly at sea, amid tensions over Taiwan and the disputed South China Sea, say regional military attaches.
“Against manned platforms we might expect China to exercise restraint, but against unmanned ones it becomes more uncertain – especially if Beijing believes that it’s possible to contain fallout since it involves no crew,” Koh said.
He noted China’s seizure of a US underwater glider deployed by an oceanographic research ship off the Philippines in December 2016. The Chinese navy later returned it to a US warship.
Christopher Twomey, a security scholar at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California, said any Chinese response would be limited.
“I’d expect they’d protest moderately but hope to sweep this under the rug and reinstate progress on senior-level visits within months,” Twomey said, speaking in a private capacity.
Zhu Feng, executive dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University, said US officials should stop “hyping” events to ensure a smooth return to the normalised communications they earlier requested from Beijing.
Zhu expressed hope “the two governments can turn the page as soon as possible so that Sino-US relations can return to an institutionalised channel of communication and dialogue”.
Some analysts are watching Chinese state media and online activity for hints at any clamour for a tougher response, as China’s mainstream state media have stuck to reporting official statements.
On China’s heavily censored social media, there was little evidence that nationalistic anger was being stirred up over the incident, with many netizens asking what the fuss was over one balloon.
“Now, China can retire its satellites!” one user joked.