UK view of dangerous global strategic trends – Asia Times

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This content was first published by Pacific Forum. It is republished with authority.

The UK recently published the seventh edition of&nbsp, Global Strategic Trends&nbsp, ( GST7 ), an early milestone in the new government ‘s&nbsp, Strategic Defense Review. GST, a program launched by the previous Labor government, provides geostrategic environment to tell corporate reviews that are conducted every four to five years.

Over the course of its 21 years, GST has expanded to include use in several different countries and gained significant international traction as a result.

Edition seven is the most comprehensive but, covering all international regions and shared spaces (oceans, Arctic, Antarctic, area and cybersecurity ), as well as emerging changes in societies, economy, the atmosphere, technology, conflict and security.

The new version is also far more geostrategic than its predecessors, reflecting a planet that has &nbsp, changed significantly&nbsp, since Labor next came to power in 1997. This more uncertain and risky prospect was the inspiration for the development of GST7.

The development of the world’s population has been a major contributor to that change, with the number expected to increase to 10 billion by 2055, tenfold since World War II. This has already led to the growth of new military and economic forces. Russia, some nations in East Asia, and a large portion of Europe are on the verge of a traditional turning point, when Africa, together with South and Southeast Asia, may begin to experience rapid population decline.

Therefore, as new countries leverage on youth bubbles to increase creative and service capacities, the balance of financial power may change even more. The competition for employees among developed nations perhaps even rise, but growing legal and illegal immigration may also add to already existing social, economic, and social pressures.

With international demand set to&nbsp, boost, the politics of energy could transform deeply. While hydrocarbons may be a major resource for the foreseeable future alongside nuclear power, the&nbsp, green transition&nbsp, could modify the landscape significantly. While positive in terms of carbon pollution, this change also brings new issues.

These include an expansion of equipment in previously congested and contested estates and&nbsp, lakes, opposition over clean technologies and markets, and exposure to the&nbsp, important minerals&nbsp, required to make these technologies, bringing innovative global regions into focus.

For example, 60 % of the country’s now identified&nbsp, sodium debris, an essential component for chargers, is under Latin America, while exposure to these sources is already impacting security&nbsp, in other areas.

Although estimates vary on how much will 3-D printing and automation innovations contribute to onshoring of manufacturing, the majority of economists anticipate that the majority of products will still be produced along extended value chains that span the globe.

New&nbsp, emerging nations&nbsp, poised to take on the mantle of the “world’s factory”, however, mean overall patterns of global trade could&nbsp, change significantly&nbsp, by mid-century as new routes and&nbsp, ports&nbsp, open in the coming decades. These configurations could be further altered by a shift in supply chains brought on by rising geopolitical tensions.

The availability of commodities may also increase competition in shared spaces. Significant deposits of critical minerals and&nbsp, hydrocarbons&nbsp, under the poles and across the&nbsp, ocean floors&nbsp, could see new races to mine these fragile ecosystems emerge, placing increasing strain on the international treaties that protect them.

Global food demand is also expected to increase by&nbsp, 50 % by 2055, creating increasing pressures for land farming and on the seas, including through&nbsp, illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.

Meanwhile, the race for high-tech leadership and control of digital standards and protocols is already growing, particularly given the dual-military potential of many of these technologies.

The development of digital services and communications also presents new potential risks. Artificial intelligence, for example, could prove both the&nbsp, great disruptor&nbsp, of traditional work while creating new forms of employment, with significant implications for economic and social stability.

Digital infrastructure is expanding all over the world. More satellites were&nbsp, launched in the first six months of 2022 than during the previous 60 years, for example, largely by commercial actors.

Subsea cable networks, already carrying&nbsp, 95 % &nbsp, of global internet traffic, continue to expand particularly&nbsp, in the southern hemisphere. These crucial networks will be both more crucial to how the world functions and ever more vulnerable to accidents as well as cyber and physical attacks.

The more frequent, violent, and permanent effects of climate change will cut across these drivers. This coincides with the population expanding and, possibly, shifting to coastal urban areas, the areas that are most susceptible to be impacted by rising sea levels and more destructive storms. In addition, impacts to&nbsp, critical national infrastructure&nbsp, could become more prevalent and damaging.

Meanwhile as ice melt opens up the&nbsp, possibility of new trading lanes&nbsp, across the Arctic, traditional routes such as the Panama Canal are already being&nbsp, impacted&nbsp, by changing temperatures.

Drought and storms could see&nbsp, millions becoming climate refugees&nbsp, in the coming decades, while the viability of some coastal regions and small island states may increasingly be challenged. More recently scientists have warned that some climate tipping points could be&nbsp, reached by mid-century, which could change weather patterns dramatically.

Near universal ownership of portable electronic devices combined with ubiquitous internet access will make the world&nbsp, increasingly connected&nbsp, but also more aware of rising inequality. Although some people will venture into space, the oceans, and the mysteries of life in the coming decades, it’s unlikely that everyone will benefit from these discoveries.

During the pandemic, for example, the world witnessed&nbsp, reversals&nbsp, in the indices of human betterment that had hitherto risen for decades. During that same period, however, &nbsp, 131 global billionaires doubled their wealth. In some areas, the state and the current systems of economic management and governance are now being increasingly questioned.

Combined, these pressures mean the future of geopolitics and security looks increasingly uncertain. The global balance of power is expected to become more congested and contested in the coming decades, even though the US, China, Russia, and other major powers in Europe and East Asia appear to continue to play a significant role. That could lead to larger-scale, emerging medium and small powers playing a more significant role in international affairs in the future.

Pressures on states, however, could also create gaps in governance for other actors to exploit. That includes transnational criminal gangs as well as violent extremism of all kinds. The corporations and the elites that own these assets could also become more powerful global actors as digital, space, and other technologies take a bigger part in how states operate.

The power’s future direction seems to be getting more uncertain at the same time. Earlier conceits that China will surpass all other countries in terms of importance. 1 economy, for example, now look less certain. Russia’s future depends on the outcome of its illegal conflict with Ukraine, as well as the price that China might demand for continued support. The US may face an increasing array of international demands, even if it avoids a turn back to isolationism. which all have more than a “rhyme” of history to them.

But if global order is less certain than at any time&nbsp, since the end of the Cold War, what are the alternatives? GST7 offers five scenarios. Instead of developing strategies based solely on a preferred future, which is frequently a common approach, they are prepared for less palatable world orders as well as the types of actions that might prevent them.

The world might turn to multilateral solutions in the event of a future existential crisis. It is the kind of world that the UN Secretary General requested at his Summit for the Futures.

Alternatively, the current rules-based international order endures, albeit increasingly competed.

However, growing conflict could also result in the creation of competing” spheres of influence” where major global powers impose rules on trade, diplomacy, and security for the nations in their orbits. Given the interdependence of trade and other issues, such a world might not quite be as oppressive as the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Of course, that arrangement could lead to even more bloody wars, and edition seven is the first GST to consider the possibility of a new global conflict. Alternatively, a succession of crises could place states under increasing pressure, with other actors then taking a more prominent role in global affairs.

All these potential futures will need to be taken into account as the new UK government prepares to release the results of its Strategic Defense Review next year. It may not take long to act in the wake of the potential new crises that are a result of ongoing wars in the Euro-Atlantic and Middle East.

Peter Olive&nbsp, ( [email protected]. former Royal Navy officer and senior defense leader, and former senior adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum. Up until July 2024, Peterson oversaw the UK’s Global Strategic Trends program.

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German state election affirms right-wing AfD’s rise – Asia Times

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Brandenburg’s voting on September 22 was the third and final status vote in Eastern Germany this month, following vital votes in Saxony and Thuringia.

Collectively, these elections have highlighted a major shift in the political landscape of eastern Germany. As in the other two states, the right-wing AfD has risen to prominence while Sahra Wagenknecht’s newly formed Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht ( BSW) is emerging as a key power broker.

Although the governing Social Democrats ( SPD ) outpolled the AfD by a whisker, the Brandenburg election cements the AfD’s position as Germany’s second-largest party and largest party among young voters.

European support for the Ukraine war and for more immigration restraints were the AfD and BSW’s main campaigns. The SPD largely avoided political disaster because Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed preliminary support for a quick resolution to the conflict.

The emerging proper function of the BSW is a notable outcome from the three elections. No lot may be formed in Saxony, Thuringia, and now in Brandenburg without the BSW’s cooperation, as both the SPD and the CDU have ruled out participation with the AfD.

The results from Brandenburg reinforce the trends that were observed earlier in September, and they also have significant proper implications for the direction of German and foreign politics, where Wagenknecht’s influence is expanding as her party becomes crucial to governing majority points.

Greens kicked out of congress

In a dramatic turn of events, the Greens in Brandenburg have fallen below the 5 % threshold, making their return to the state legislature increasingly unlikely.

According to the latest estimates, the Greens will get just 4.2 % of the vote, down from 10.8 % in the last election – a staggering decline of over 60 % of their help.

Given that the Greens are one of the most vocal supporters of military aid for Ukraine, this decline is especially important. Their attention to this issue appears to have alienated a sizable portion of Brandenburg’s electorate, where foreign military engagement is becoming increasingly unpopular.

This outcome not only signals the end of the current three-party partnership consisting of the Greens, SPD, and CDU, but also indicates a more significant change in the public.

The challenge for second place between the SPD and AfD consumed much of the political power, leaving other functions, such as the CDU, in collapse. The CD U’s losses, 3.5 percentage points to 12.1 %, reflect the party’s broader struggles as it lost ground in the contest between the two frontrunners.

Throughout the battle, Brandenburg’s SPD secretary leader distanced himself as much as possible from the national SPD and Chancellor Scholz.

In order to combat growing unsatisfaction with the federal government’s management of pressing issues like immigration and Ukraine, the state party purposefully avoided Scholz’s campaign appearances.

More tellingly, users of the Brandenburg SPD apparently called on the SPD’s regional director, Saskia Esken, not to appear on television, reflecting the heavy split between the regional and national arms of the group.

With 30.7 %, an increase of 4.5 points, the SPD continued to lead in Brandenburg thanks to this separation plan. The SPD received a sizable portion of the voting among over-70s, which was especially prosperous among older voters.

A power change: Sahra Wagenknecht’s growing affect

The election results represent a significant shift in Wagenknecht’s and her newly formed Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht ( BSW). With 13.4 % of the vote, the BSW has become a key person in the Brandenburg state legislature.

Interestingly, no majority coalition may get formed without either the AfD or the BSW. The BSW is the only viable lover for either party because the SPD and CDU both strongly oppose cooperation with the AfD, giving Wagenknecht considerable influence in upcoming partnership agreements.

This newly acquired effect allows the left-nationalist BSW to enhance its platform, especially its foreign policy stance, which stands in stark contrast to the current administration.

The BSW has been outspoken in its opposition to defense support for Ukraine, calling for urgent peace agreements and a shift in Germany’s position within NATO.

Wagenknecht’s group is also calling for a readjustment of Germany’s sanctions against Russia, arguing that they are hurting the German market more than Russia’s.

A pro-AfD children storm

While the SPD dominated among older voters ( 50 % of the vote among 70 -year-olds ), the AfD emerged as the clear favorite among younger voters in Brandenburg, securing 32 % of the vote among 16-24-year-olds.

This is a piece of a wider pattern in eastern Germany. The AfD has strengthened its status as the region’s most powerful group following the elections in Saxony and Thuringia earlier this year.

In each of these state elections, the AfD won around 30 % of the ballot, reflecting common frustration with the federal government’s policies, particularly on issues such as movement and Ukraine.

The AfD has solidly established itself as the dominant political force in eastern Germany now that Brandenburg is now on the same direction as Saxony and Thuringia.

The AfD’s regular electoral victory demonstrates that it is a power that cannot be ignored despite the group’s isolation from possible coalition negotiations despite neither the SPD nor the CDU being willing to cooperate with it.

The benefits of the Brandenburg vote, combined with those of Saxony and Thuringia, confirm a big social change in eastern Germany.

The AfD is currently the region’s most powerful party, consistently receiving about 30 % of the vote in each election. The social environment in eastern Germany is extremely shaped by nationalist movements and a refusal of Berlin’s laws as established events continue to lose ground.

The region is still very divided due to the AfD’s growing attractiveness among younger voters and the SPD’s extended supremacy among older voters. Without the AfD or the BSW, but, forming a stable state in Brandenburg may be difficult.

As the only practical coalition partner left, Wagenknecht’s BSW does get even more effect, making her gathering a key person in shaping Brandenburg’s democratic potential.

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Bigger than Blackwater: Privatization of security goes worldwide – Asia Times

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In August 2024, due to a US$ 4 million budget deficit, Idaho’s Caldwell School District terminated its$ 296, 807 deal with the local police department, opting instead for military troops from Eagle Eye Security.

The$ 58, 000 deal represents only the latest addition to the$ 50, 000 private security sector, which is expanding law enforcement globally, and$ 248, 000 is a global market.

While private military companies ( PMCs ) like Blackwater ( now Academi ) and Wagner have gained notoriety in war zones, private security companies ( PSCs ) are rapidly expanding in non-combat settings.

Despite some overlap between the two, PSCs usually protect property and people. The success and social norms of PSCs vary widely, and military soldiers are becoming more and more prevalent. They frequently collaborate with law enforcement. In the US, security guards surpassed authorities by about 3:2 in 2021.

People plan is also catching up. PSCs operate under deal rather than immediate taxpayer money, unlike police forces. They also do n’t have the same level of regulation, oversight, or accountability.

Exclusive security officers are often the target of criticisms of the police, including excessive force and inadequate training. Some former police officers with contentious pasts work for PSCs, where access barriers are minimal. Turnover, however, remains large, while pay are minimal. But the sector’s continued expansion appears inevitable.

Government organizations and private safety organizations have been a part of world for ages. Government forces frequently relied on volunteers to combat unrest more than stop crime.

Employing soldiers and bounty hunters as part of private security options was also a common method of enforcing protection, as well as community initiatives like the “hue and weep” ( where villagers collectively chase down criminals ) were common.

With increasing industrialization, though, standard law enforcement practices became less successful, prompting the creation of the first present police force, the London Metropolitan Police, in 1829. Distinct from the defense, more accountable to city officials and business interests, and focused on murder protection, this concept was adopted by Boston in 1838 and spread to almost all US locations by the 1880s.

The development of the modern personal security industry coincided with the establishment of the common police force. The Pinkerton National Detective Agency, as it was later known, is regarded as the first modern PSC, which was established in the US in 1850.

With its global reach, analytical skills, and role in safeguarding businesses, Pinkerton distinguished itself by protecting businesses from fraud, theft, and damage.

More regulatory scrutiny resulted from its controversial part in occasions like the Homestead Strike of 1892, which the organization “essentially went to war with thousands of stunning workers,” but the company remained a leader in business growth.

The increase in PSC usage in US home neighborhoods after World War II increased desire, which was accelerated by the racial-tinted civil unrest of the 1960s and 1970s, which encouraged private efforts to police places.

Deregulation and professionalization were brought about by the 1980s, when many businesses established internal safety agencies and PSCs gave former law enforcement officers precedence over those with military background.

Private security currently has a global reputation, offering services ranging from bouncers and bodyguards to group control units and professional military teams. PSCs are typically less expensive than deploying police forces, and the widespread use of security and other technology has increased the playing area.

However, personal personnel generally serve as a visible barrier, discouraging murder through their existence rather than direct intervention. They frequently concentrate on prowling and monitoring, which can divert unlawful activity rather than stop it. As personal security’s demand grows, there is still a lot of debate about their function and wider socioeconomic impact.

Around the start of the 2000s, the ratio of police staffing to human population in the US reached its peak, and police organizations claim shortages are now common. PSCs have bridged the gap while police agencies have struggled to raise their rates.

Allied-Universal, with 300, 000 National people, is one of the largest private companies in the country. However, for high-net-worth people like Mark Zuckerberg, individual security charges can exceed$ 14 million annually.

PSCs have stepped in to listen to a variety of conditions, including rallies at colleges. Apex Security Group employees demolished pro-Palestinian camps at UC Berkeley in January 2024, before clearing comparable locations at UCLA and Columbia University in April.

Many PSCs, but, do more lucrative long-term agreements. UC San Francisco spent$ 3.5 million on CSC in 2023, according to watchdog organization American Transparency, and the University of California has paid Contemporary Services Corporation ( CSC ) for campus patrols for years.

PSCs are also frequently used to combat theft and handle the unhoused in California. Following a surge in the state’s homeless people by 40 percent since 2019 and an increase in petty violence, PSCs have secured important agreements with local governments, private firms, people, and individuals.

The state’s security and investigative services are in charge of the sector, but incidents continue to raise questions. In May 2023, an Allied Universal guard fatally shot Banko Brown, an unarmed Black person suspected of shoplifting. The San Francisco district attorney’s office chose not to file charges, sparking public outcry.

In Portland, police budget cuts, which were spurred by defunding initiatives following the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests, resulted in the disbandment of special units and a wave of officer resign and retire. Between 2019 and 2023, hold times for 911 increased fivefold, with more lenient policies allegedly contributing to a rise in crime rates.

In response, thousands of private security personnel now patrol the city, and the number of people who are authorized to carry weapons has increased by nearly 40 % since then. More than 400 local businesses pay Echelon, a Portland-based PSC, to deploy dozens of guards around the clock.

Echelon and its employees have made efforts to establish relationships with the homeless and those who are addicted to drugs and mental illnesses by providing food, preventing overdoses, and de-escalating conflicts. Portland’s crime rate has decreased since its highest level in 2022, reflecting trends across the country and its push to reinstate police numbers.

American PSCs are rescheduling more positions throughout the nation. Protective Force International established its own squad in Las Vegas in May of this year to remove squatters from an apartment building as well as its other security services. In New Orleans, Pinnacle Security is one of many firms operating, with roughly 250 security guards patrolling neighborhoods, businesses, and government buildings.

Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s claim that businesses were failing to implement adequate theft prevention measures in Chicago sparked more private initiatives in 2021. Private patrols with P4 Security Solutions were introduced by the Fulton Market District Improvement Association in 2024, a local organization supported by local restaurateurs and developers. P4 personnel operate both on foot and by car and provide security to other Chicago neighborhoods, with plans to expand further.

Private security, however, is not just a US phenomenon. PSCs are well established globally, no more so than in Latin America. The War on Drugs fueled extensive transnational criminal empires and widespread police corruption from the 1970s.

The transition to democratic governments in Latin America frequently resulted in weak institutions, which in turn led to instability and security challenges as military dictatorships ended in the 1990s. In response, private security boomed, primarily serving the wealthy.

Today, Latin America is home to more than 16, 000 PMCs and PSCs employing more than 2 million people, often outnumbering police forces in poorly regulated markets. Their rapid expansion has caused serious problems, including claims of extrajudicial killings in Guatemala and criminal infiltration of PSCs in Mexico and El Salvador. Western resource companies have also used PSCs to protect their operations and confront protesters in the area in concert with local authorities.

During the War on Terror, many US PMCs employed personnel in Latin America, which is typically where the private security sector has traditionally attracted talent. Recently, the region has also become a market for foreign PSCs. Chinese PSCs, while restricted domestically, are increasingly involved in China’s Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ) projects in the region, as well as in private ventures.

Zhong Bao Hua An Security Company, for example, has contracts with businesses in El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Panama. The Mexico-Chinese Security Council was established in 2012 to safeguard Chinese businesses and employees from violence, while Tie Shen Bao Biao provides personal protection services in Panama.

Both PMCs and PSCs found employment thanks to the collapse of security states in Eastern Europe in the 1990s and the rise of capitalism. In Bulgaria, early PSCs were often founded by sportsmen, particularly wrestlers, with connections to organized crime.

Unemployment rates in Bulgaria were estimated to be 9 % of working men by 2005 in a UN report, a pattern found throughout the former Eastern Bloc.

Though growth has been slower in Western Europe, PSCs have still expanded. France recently sent 10,000 security personnel to Paris for the 2024 Olympics, but many of them left after working conditions weeks before the ceremony’s opening ceremony.

PSCs have become increasingly important in the management of the European Union’s migrant crisis, helping the sector make significant profits. While backing policies that foster instability abroad, private actors quickly referred to migration as a threat to security.

Major arms dealers and security firms like Airbus and Leonardo, for example, sell weapons in conflict zones that fuel violence and displacement. Then, by selling security equipment to European border agencies, they make a second profit.

In contrast to the recent decline in violence across Africa, localized instability has resulted in a rise in the security sector. PSCs frequently find themselves playing quasi-military roles like convoy protection, protection of natural resource extraction sites in hostile areas, and armed confrontations, making the distinction between PSCs and PMCs frequently fuzzy on the continent.

In contrast to Russia’s use of conflict-focused PMCs in Africa, Chinese PSCs have become more common to make up for the security gaps left by African governments for BRI investments. Regulating is varies, with less oversight in nations like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and more stringent controls in Uganda.

Since the end of apartheid in the 1990s, South Africa’s PSC industry has grown in particular. Citizens are more reliant on the private sector for safety and asset protection as a result of rising crime rates and declining police numbers.

There are 2.7 million registered private security officers in South Africa, out of which there are 4:1. Services include patrolling neighborhoods, providing armed guards, and tracking and recovering stolen vehicles.

The PSC industry’s rise has been fueled by gaps in state security measures. However, crime rates frequently remain high in the PSCs ‘ operations because they place a premium on keeping private property and people safe as opposed to maintaining public order.

Financial incentives can also lead to problems being managed tactfully rather than seriously. Additionally, PSC employees frequently face burnout, low pay, and negative working conditions. PSCs and private prisons intersecting, which has raised more questions about their growing influence and overlapping roles.

Despite its growth in recent decades, the PSC industry’s progress has proven reversible in the past. By 2001, Argenbright Security controlled almost 40 % of US airport checkpoints, but the creation of the Transportation Security Administration ( TSA ) after 9/11 centralized airport security back under government control, with limited private sector involvement.

Nevertheless, the industry is likely to continue expanding, particularly as new initiatives find uses for them. India, which has the world’s largest private security force at approximately 12 million, is expected to continue seeing strong industry expansion, especially in securing its increasing number of private communities, colloquially termed “gated republics“.

Private security is already a significant component of private cities, which are expanding all over the world. In these cities, boards and CEOs are largely responsible for governance rather than elected officials, and profit goals frequently outweigh public needs. As security becomes a commodity rather than a public concern, the safety gap between the rich and the poor is further exacerbated.

The island of Roatán in Honduras is at the center of a dispute between the government and local communities, on the one hand, and international business owners who are building a private city on the island, on the other. The rising tensions highlight the reality of under-resourced government forces fighting well-funded businesses supported by heavily armed private guards.

Regulations must change at the same rate as the expansion of the field of private security. With regulations primarily implemented at the state level and lacking uniformity, there is a need for more oversight to effectively address potential issues in the US. By allowing private companies to operate with minimal restrictions, failing to do so will undermine public accountability and cause further societal divisions.

John P Ruehl is an Australian-American journalist living in Washington, D. C., and a world affairs correspondent for the Independent Media Institute.

He is a contributor to several foreign affairs publications, and his book, Budget Superpower: How Russia Challenges the West With an Economy Smaller Than Texas ‘, was published in December 2022.

The Independent Media Institute’s Economy for All project produced this article. It is republished here with kind permission.

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Global depopulation: saving the Earth while killing the economy? – Asia Times

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Right now, animal community development is doing something much thought impossible –&nbsp, it’s hesitating. It’s then possible world population was top much earlier than expected, topping 10 billion in the 2060s. Therefore, it may begin to fall.

In wealthier states, it’s currently happening. Japan’s population is falling quickly, with a net loss of 100 people every minute. In Europe, America and East Asia, fertility rates have fallen quickly. Some developing nations with lower or middle incomes are on the verge of a decline.

This is an amazing change. Practitioners had predicted that our figures, which were away from around 8 billion immediately, could reach 12.3 billion ten years ago.

Some campaigners have tried to save the setting by halting world population growth for the past 50 years. In 1968, The Population Bomb forecast large epidemics and called for large-scale baby power.

Population growth is slowing without community control, and rich countries ‘ populations are declining, triggering furious but largely inefficient efforts to encourage more babies. What might the culture be affected by a declining global people?

Depopulation is currently happening

For much of Europe, North America, and some of Northern Asia, emigration has been live for centuries. While longer life expectancies mean that the proportion of very old people ( over 80 ) will double in these areas in the next 25 years, fertility rates have steadily decreased over the past 70 years and have remained low.

China was until lately the world’s most populous state, accounting for a fifth of the global community. But China, too, is then declining, with the drop expected to quickly expand.

By the end of the century, China is projected to possess two-thirds fewer people than yesterday’s 1.4 billion. The long neck of the One Child Plan, which ended in 2016, is to blame for the unexpected fall, which was too late to stop the decline. Japan was once the country’s 11th most filled state, but is expected to reduce before the end of the century.

shibuya crossing
For then, Tokyo’s Shibuya Crossing is one of the busiest in the world. However, Japan is starting to suffer a lot from emigration. Photo: Takashi Images / Shutterstock via The Talk

What’s going on is known as statistical change. As countries move from being mostly agrarian and agrarian to business and service-based economies, reproduction drops quickly. Communities begin to decline when low birth rates and lower fatality rates combine.

Why? Option is a significant factor. People are having more children later in life and, on average, have fewer because of better options and freedoms in terms of learning and careers.

Why are we immediately focused on emigration, given birth rates in wealthy countries have been falling for years? Most countries experienced a slight decline in birth rates before the Covid pandemic hit in 2020, while fatality rates rose as well. That strategy helped to accelerate the general trend of people drop.

A falling people poses real difficulties financially. There are fewer personnel accessible, and more senior citizens require assistance.

Countries in rapid decline may begin to halt migration to ensure they stay the fewest workers at home and stop the population from getting older and declining. The need for qualified employees will grow worldwide. Of course, migration does n’t change how many people there are –&nbsp, just where they are located.

Are these all prosperous country problems? No. People rise in Brazil, a huge middle-income state, is now the slowest on record.

By 2100, the earth is expected to have just six states where babies outweigh deaths – Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad, and Tajikistan. The other 97 % of the world’s fertility rates are thought to be below replacement levels ( 2,1 children per woman ).

Bad for the business –&nbsp, good for the environment?

Fewer of us means a break for character –&nbsp, correct? No. It’s not that easy.

For example, the per capita energy consumption rate drops between 35 and 55, then drops, and then rises again at age 70 as a result of older people’s longer-term indoor habit and living only in larger homes. Population declines caused by population declines could be offset by this century’s incredible population growth.

Then there’s the great gap in reference use. Your carbon footprints is nearly twice as large as it is for residents of the United States or Australia, the world’s biggest total transmitter.

Eat more in wealthy nations. Therefore, it’s good that more of the world’s population will be higher emitters as more countries become wealthier and healthier but with fewer kids. Unless, of course, we decouple financial rise from more pollution and other economic costs, as many countries are attempting – but very carefully.

Hope more lenient immigration laws to increase the number of people who are working. This is already happening; movement has now past projected levels for 2050.

Migration to a developed nation can be useful for both the new country and the country where they were born. Environmentally, it does improve per capita emissions and economic effects, given the website between income and emissions is pretty obvious.

line at airport
As communities fall, states will compete for experienced workers. Image: PeopleImages.com – Yuri A / Shutterstock via The Talk

Then there’s the looming tumult of climate shift. As the planet heats up, forced movement– where people have to leave home to avoid drought, conflict or another climate-influenced disaster –&nbsp, is projected to jump to 216 million people within a quarter century. Forced movement may change pollution patterns, depending on where individuals find shelter.

Putting all of these things away, it’s possible that a declining global population will lower overall consumption and lessen the strain on the environment.

Environmentalists have long hoped that the world’s population will decline despite concerns about urbanization. They might shortly receive their wish. Not through imposed baby control laws, but mainly through the options of educated, wealthy women choosing to live in smaller families.

Is whether declining population may lessen the pressure on the environment remains a mystery. This is not a guaranteed outcome unless pollution reduction and consumption patterns change in developed nations.

Andrew Taylor is associate professor in population, Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University and Supriya Mathew is postdoctoral scholar in climate change and health, Charles Darwin University

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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China-India-US power balance at stake in 2 elections – Asia Times

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The rectangular balance of power between China, India, and the US may change after two elections this time.

After the American elections, which are scheduled for April 19 to June 1, Prime Minister Narenda Modi is expected to be reelected. Donald Trump, who is vying for re-election as US senator in November, and Modi have a close connection.

During his first term as president, Modi established a close connection with Trump. Both men have powerful political credentials, own larger- than- living personas and concentrate on immigration policies. If Trump and Modi are elected, India-US relationships are most likely to be stronger than ever.

However, the China- US connection is not doing well. Trump’s taxes, which remained in place throughout Biden’s president, may be increased if Trump re-enters the White House. Trump stated in an interview with Fox News ‘ Sunday Morning Futures that tariffs on Chinese products may rise to 60 % if he is re-elected.

But that’s not all. Trump wants to increase US dependence on the Chinese business by doing so.

Additionally, it is likely that Trump will do the same under his second administration because he prohibited US companies from funding Chinese companies that may compromise US stability during his first presidency.

China needs foreign aid to strengthen its ailing business and boost exports as the country’s children poverty rate is still high at 14.9 % and the economy’s is weakening. However for Beijing, Trump’s plan would not only harm China’s economic treatment, but US restrictions on American tech companies from investing in China may also harm Beijing’s efforts to become a world leader in synthetic knowledge by 2030.

Fall of India

The high tariffs imposed on Chinese goods offer enormous trading options for India, despite Trump’s intentions to impose a baseline tax of 10 % on all imports. US businesses will look to expand their supply chains by sourcing products from abroad as the US economy becomes more disconnected from the Chinese market.

India is poised to become China’s solution for three factors:

Given how Beijing’s influence in southern Asia has increased as a result of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s effort to build a global business networking, advancing ties with the US would be well received by Delhi.

The US has always been interested in supporting India as a” counter to China,” and it works with the security organization the Quad, which has four people: the US, India, Japan, and Australia, to halt China’s effect.

The price issue

Trump imposed a 25 % tariff on Chinese imports in January 2018, starting an unprecedented trade war with China. Beijing retaliated by imposing its personal taxes on US products, and Sino-US relationships deteriorated culminating in the 2019 recalls of Chinese giant panda from the San Diego zoo in California ( a highly symbolic sign by the Chinese government ).

The taxes, which duty Chinese imports, were supposed to protect American interests. However, US consumers and businesses have had to spend more for items because the US economy depends heavily on Chinese exports. By 2019, Trump’s taxes cost the US an estimated 300, 000 tasks. The US business shrank, and in 2020 the taxes cost the US a staggering US$ 316 billion.

Beijing is worried about a second Trump presidency. Since 2018, China has sought to minimize the effects of Trump’s trade conflict by adopting a plan of self- reliance. This resulted in a decrease in China’s imports of production inputs into the high tech, electric, and automotive sectors.

However, China’s ability to minimize its dependence on the international community is highly limited. According to experts, the Chinese leadership is aware of this, and Xi’s main motivation for attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in San Francisco was to rekindle ties with the West and entice much-needed foreign investment.

The Taiwan problem

The phrase” The Supreme Art of War is subdue the enemy without fighting” was a well-known line from the Chinese classic Sun Tzu’s Art of War in 2012. But if he had read the rest of Sun Tzu’s work, he would be aware of the following:” When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Avoid pressing a desperate opponent too hard.

Trump should realize that Washington’s increased aggression towards China may only undermine Taiwan’s security. Beijing’s desire to unite with Taiwan was largely a nationalistic exercise meant to legitimize the “one China policy.” Given the island state’s advancement in semiconductor technology and China’s current economic problems, the need to acquire Taiwan has transcended historical fervor to economic desire.

Artificial intelligence is important because it will confer major economic, technological, and military benefits to China. China needs to acquire semiconductor chips if it wants to be the world’s AI leader by 2030. China may forcefully occupy Taiwan if it ca n’t access that through trade.

Chee Meng Tan is a visiting assistant professor of business economics at the University of Nottingham in Malaysia.

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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What six BRICS new members are buying into

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One key outcome of the 15th BRICS summit, hosted by South Africa, is the decision to invite six more countries to join the group with effect from January 2024. They are Argentina, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.

All six had applied for membership. The enlargement will grow the association’s membership to 11 and increase its envisaged role as a geopolitical alternative to global institutions dominated by the West.

The five current member countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – have argued that their size, in economic and population terms, is not represented in the world’s institutions, particularly the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The BRICS five represent about 42% of the world’s population and more than 23% of world GDP. The enlarged grouping will account for 46.5% of the world population. Using the IMF’s 2022 GDP data, we can deduce that it will account for about 30% of global GDP.

The disparate nature of the six new members is bound to spark debate about the real nature of BRICS.

In his welcoming remarks at the summit (22-24 August), the host, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, stated:

BRICS stands for solidarity and for progress. BRICS stands for inclusivity and a more just, equitable order. BRICS stands for sustainable development.

The group has been remarkably consistent on these values and aspirations.

Understanding the nature of BRICS

“What is it?” often is one of the first questions about BRICS. This is telling. This question does not come up, for example, about the European Union or even the G20.

BRICS is not an organization. (It has no headquarters, secretariat or treaty.) But it does have a formal institution that is jointly owned – the New Development Bank. Confusion about BRICS’s precise nature is understandable.

At various points it has referred to itself as a forum, a platform, a mechanism, a partnership, or a strategic partnership, to name a few.

Others have called it an alliance or a bloc, but it is neither of those. In international relations, both terms are strictly defined. The term “alliance” refers to a mutual defense pact and implies military cooperation. A “bloc” refers to ideological consistency (political bloc) or a free trade agreement (trade bloc). BRICS has none of these characteristics.

The members also disagree on some key issues. China and Russia are noncommittal (at best) on the aspirations of India, Brazil and South Africa to become members of the UN Security Council. Their declarations have over the years reiterated the same phrase:

China and Russia understand and support the aspirations of India, Brazil and South Africa to play a greater role in the United Nations.

This shows there is some serious disagreement within the group.

As a political scientist interested in global politics, I have written about BRICS and its potential for changing the status quo. With hindsight, I can assert that certain principles have informed it since its establishment and first summit in 2009. In my view, at a material level, the 15 years of summit declarations point to four fundamental values:

  • mutual development
  • multilateralism
  • global governance reform
  • solidarity.

The association self-reportedly seeks secure sustainable development for itself and the global south, to safeguard and advance multilateralism, to institute reform for the goal of representative institutions and to achieve solidarity among members.

Economic development

Economics comes first in the group; at its root, it is a collective of emerging economies eager to sustain and improve their economic trajectory. Their insistence on reform is, after all, based on their perceived disproportionate under-representation in global financial institutions.

The group’s first, and so far only, notable establishment is the New Development Bank, primarily to finance infrastructure development.

BRICS’s New Development Bank in Brazil. Photo: La Prensa

There’s also a contingent reserve that members can draw from in emergencies. It is valued at US$100 billion.

Multilateralism

The second value refers to the group’s concern about the use of entities outside the UN to pursue global objectives. Most notable is the use of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) to invade Afghanistan in 2001 following the 9/11 attacks in the US, and the invasion of Iraq in 2003 by the US and the UK, circumventing the UN Security Council.

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed this concern in his speech to the 2007 Munich Conference on Security:

The use of force can only be considered legitimate if the decision is sanctioned by the UN. And we do not need to substitute NATO or the EU for the UN.

Global governance reform

Thirdly, the BRICS countries have long pushed for leaders of global institutions to be elected in a transparent and democratic way. For example, the president of the World Bank has always been an American, and the managing director of the IMF a European. The World Bank has 189 member states and the IMF 190.

The idea of the New Development Bank was not to substitute it for the World Bank but to “supplement” existing international financial institutions. BRICS still envisions a World Bank in which its members have voting rights proportional to their economic weight, and with staff drawn from across the world in a geographically balanced way.

Solidarity

Finally, the members have articulated solidarity with one another in a number of declarations, beginning in 2010. It comes down to mutual assistance in times of humanitarian disasters, respecting one another’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

In light of criticism of, and sanctions plans against, China, for its alleged suppression of the Uighur-Muslim population, and Russia, for invading Ukraine, solidarity has come to mean silence or nonalignment.

A blank slate

BRICS is a nebulous entity. This has proved beneficial for member countries hosting BRICS summits. They get to set the agenda and use it for their ends – without upsetting the consensus. One common pattern has been the use of summits to set overarching themes that are favorable to the host country’s domestic policy and regional leadership or foreign policy stance.

Thus, for example, all BRICS summits hosted by South Africa foregrounded Africa in their names: “BRICS and Africa: Partnership for mutually accelerated growth, sustainable development and inclusive multilateralism” in 2023. Brazil and Russia have inserted issues that are important to their regions, and often invited leaders of neighboring countries to retreats.

This shows how much clout they enjoy, as they get to funnel access to a now-renowned association that is simultaneously well established but also evades easy definition. With the addition of the six new members, such evasiveness is set to continue.

Bhaso Ndzendze is an associate professor of international relations at the University of Johannesburg.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Georgia’s anti-Russia protests a cry to the West

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The Georgian government has been forced to withdraw its controversial “foreign agent” law after days of mass protests against what many saw as Russian-inspired legislation which would limit press freedom, making its chances of ever joining the European Union near impossible. Over two nights this week, thousands of protesters have packed the streets of Tbilisi […]Continue Reading

Learning lessons from dependency on a hostile power

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Many of us who live in liberal democracies used to believe in something we called “engagement” with authoritarian powers such as China and Russia. Germans had a more specific phrase for it: “Wandel durch Handel”, which means change through trade. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, however, has taught us to replace these phrases with a different […]Continue Reading