Europe repositioning between US and China in new global order – Asia Times

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The term that perhaps best describes the international impact of the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s second term is “disruption.”

His tariff policy, his abolition of USAID, his questioning of the transatlantic alliance, and his attempted rapprochement with Russia have neither destroyed the liberal international order nor established anything new in its place.

But the prospects of liberal internationalism under Trump are vanishingly small. And Trumpism, in the guise of an “America First” foreign policy, is likely to outlast Trump’s second term.

That the US is no longer the standard bearer of the liberal international order has been clear for some time. Trump and his Russian and Chinese counterparts, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, appear to see themselves as dominant players in a new multipolar world order. But it is not clear that a grand bargain between them is possible – or that it would endure.

Europe is particularly vulnerable to these changes in the international order. Having been able to rely for the past eight decades on an iron-clad American security guarantee, European countries have chronically underinvested in their defense capabilities, especially since the end of the Cold War.

Defense spending as a proportion of GDP may have increased over the past decade, but remains lackluster. And investment in an independent European defense industrial base faces many hurdles.

These deficiencies predated Trump’s return to the White House. Addressing them will only be possible in a time frame beyond his second term. With no dependable partners left among the world’s great powers, Europe’s predicament – unenviable as it may be for the moment – nonetheless offers an opportunity for the continent to begin to stand on its own feet.

Early signs of a more independent Europe are promising. In March, the European Commission released a white paper on defense which anticipates defense investment of €800 billion ($903.5 billion) over the next four years.

The bulk of this will rely on the activation of the so-called “national escape clause”. This allows EU member states to escape penalties if they exceed the normal deficit ceiling of 3% of GDP.

Once activated for the purpose of defense spending, they can now take on additional debt of up to 1.5% of their GDP. By the end of April, 12 EU member states had already requested that the national escape clause be activated, with several more expected to follow.

Defense is clearly the most urgent problem for Europe. But it isn’t the only aspect to consider when it comes to achieving greater strategic autonomy, something that the European Union has grappled with for more than a decade. In other areas, such as trade and energy, the starting point is a very different one.

Regarding energy independence, the EU has achieved a remarkable and quick pivot away from Russia. It has just released a final plan to stop all remaining gas imports from Russia by the end of 2027.

On trade, Trump’s America First tariff policy has done significant damage to the global system. This has, in turn, created opportunities for the EU, as one of the world’s largest trading blocs, including greater cooperation with China, already one of its largest trading partners.

Complex relationships

China and the EU clearly share an interest in preserving a global trade regime from which both have benefited. But their economic interests cannot be separated easily from their geopolitical interests. So far, China has sent very mixed signals to Europe.

Beijing has, for example, proposed to lift sanctions against some members of the European Parliament who have been critical of China in a show of goodwill. But China’s support for Russia continues as well, most recently with Xi’s commitment to visit Moscow for the Victory Day parade on May 9.

Standing with Moscow may benefit Beijing in its rivalry with the US by solidifying the “no-limits partnership” that Xi and Putin announced on the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. But it does little to win the EU over as a partner in defense of the open international order that Trump is trying his best to shutter.

On the contrary, in reaffirming China’s commitment to its partnership with Russia, Xi may well have lost whatever chances there were for a European realignment with China.

The complexities of the EU-China and EU-US relationships – a curious mix of rapidly shifting interests – reflect the EU’s position as the natural center of gravity of what is left of the West.

This is evident in the rapid evolution of the “coalition of the willing” in support of Ukraine, which brings together 30 countries from across the EU and NATO under French and British leadership.

Beyond Europe, Trump’s tariff policy has given plans for a strategic partnership between the EU and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) a new lease of life.

The CPTPP is a group of 11 Indo-Pacific countries and the UK, which joined last December. It is one of the world’s largest free trade areas, accounting for approximately 15% of global GDP.

Even without US and Chinese membership, a partnership between the EU and the CPTPP would wield significant power in the global economic system and could play a future role in shielding its members from an intensifying US-China trade war.

Limited alternatives

None of the steps taken by the EU and its partners on the continent and elsewhere require the breakdown in the transatlantic relationship that the Trump administration appears keen to engineer. But speeches by both US Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were clear that America’s relationship with Europe is changing.

Washington, under its current leadership, increasingly leans towards the political forces in Europe that are opposed to the values on which the continent has been oriented since 1945. This leaves Europe few options but to seek more independence from the US.

A more independent Europe is unlikely to become a global superpower on par with the US or China. But it will be better able to hold its own in a geopolitical environment that is less based on rules and more on power.

The EU currently enjoys historically high approval ratings among its citizens – who also support more unity and a more active role for the EU in protecting them from global security risks.

It’s increasingly clear that EU leaders and their partners have a unique opportunity – and an obligation – to carve out a more secure and independent space in a hostile global environment.

Stefan Wolff is professor of international security, University of Birmingham

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Albanese win opens the way for a Trump bromance – Asia Times

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Anthony Albanese eventually received the much-awaited phone visit from US President Donald Trump on Monday after winning the election.

The leader thanked the president for “reaching out” at a press conference, calling the conversation “warm and good.”

” I won’t go into all of the individual comments he made, but he was very kind in his kindness and praise for me. He fully understood the [election ] outcome and expressed his desire to work with me in the future.

While they discussed taxes ( as well as AUKUS), the in-depth discussion of that contentious subject was postponed.

According to popular culture, Trump adores a success. Trump responded to a question about the American election that he had in Washington before that day by saying he was “very helpful” with Albanese.

The president said,” I don’t know anything about the poll other than the person that won, he’s quite good, he’s a friend of mine.” Albanese described her as being “very, very good to me, and very polite to me.” I have no idea who the other man was who attacked him.

Given all the efforts made by the government and his other foes to portray Peter Dutton as” Trump-lite,” there is more than a touch of humor in this.

Trump is likely to meet with the prime minister immediately, possibly in June. Alberta has been given a gathering invitation at the G7 in Canada. Trump might or might not be present, but there might be a meeting to discuss this.

After Trump announced a 100 % tax on all shows entering the United States, the government is ready to defend the local movie industry.

No one should be questioned that we will stand up for the right of the American monitor industry, according to Arts Minister Tony Burke, who stated,” Nobody should be in doubt.”

Albanese’s first fresh term overseas visit will be to Indonesia.

Albanese stated that his first international trip would be to Indonesia. Given the significance of the diplomatic relationship and the new rejection of Indonesia’s request to basic planes in Papua, this will be a particularly significant attend.

Prabowo Subianto, the president of Indonesia, thanked Albanese for his victory in a telephone on Sunday.

Albanese asked the president to make his first overseas visit during the call, and the president responded that it would be” a great honor” to do so.

In the meantime, Labor’s rival groups may be tussling over the victory’s rewards in the coming days. Although the factions generally agree on the frontbench account, Albanese, given his enormous power and the big win, will be able to establish his will wherever he wants to in this process. The primary minister assigns the portfolio.

Although there will be modifications, work options anticipate a lot of stability between the new and old ministries, particularly at the higher levels.

Best case users have recently been confirmed by Albanese, including Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Defense Minister Marles, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher, and Trade Minister Don Farrell. They will be in their current departments.

Tanya Plibersek, the culture secretary, is most interested in moving. When asked about her future in the environment during the battle, Albanese said he had already confirmed she would be in the cabinet.

Over the years, Albanese and Plibersek have had a subpar connection. After the previous vote, she had anticipated becoming training minister, but she was shocked to be given the position of environment minister.

I want Labor to be the biological party of state, Albanese stated at his press conference.

Watch out for Angus Taylor.

What revolves revolves revolves about. Hollie Hughes, a Democrat lawmaker from NSW, has stoked Taylor’s management ambitions after blaming ghost treasurer Angus Taylor for her preselection defeat because he supported the candidate who beat her.

On Monday, Hughes stated to the ABC that she would not help Taylor as the party’s replacement head.

She claimed that the opponent’s economic storyline “was just absolutely non-existent.” What has Taylor been doing for three decades, I’m not entirely convinced.

There was no taxes plan, and I believe the financial team considerably let down the political team, our members, our supporters, and Australians in general because they had no money to sell, not to say, and had obviously never done the work that was needed.

She praised assistant chief Sussan Ley for doing” a fantastic job over the past three ages” and for which we can firmly rely on her.

Peter Dutton, who lost his seat to Dickson in Saturday’s retreat, has four names in the running for the position. They are Taylor, Ley, Andrew Hastie, and Dan Tehan, the defense official, for immigration. No candidates have already submitted their nomination.

I definitely want to be able to influence change within the party itself, according to Hastie, who told The West Australian over the weekend, and what that looks like may be up to my colleagues to decide.

Michelle Grattan is a professor at the University of Canberra.

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Which Roman emperor was most like Donald Trump? – Asia Times

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According to what I’ve heard, US President Donald Trump may adore being a Roman king. It would be seductive to follow the myth of unbridled power and sycophants doing his will.

However, Roman emperors were severely reliant on organisations, the business, and public opinion. Yes, some people challenged and marginalized the establishments of their day, but this frequently sparked a strong reaction.

I’ve just been asked which Roman prince resembled Donald Trump the most in terms of my years of study of Ancient Rome. He resembles a number of Roman rulers in some ways.

Julius Caesar

Of training, Julius Caesar was not emperor. When the Roman Republic was in its final years, he was a military head and legislator.

Some people have compared Trump to Caesar despite the lack of his martial service. The allure of this comparison is explained by English historian Mary Beard for both Trump’s supporters and foes.

The Roman Republic was conceived as a system of shared social power at the beginning. The electorate, the electorate, and the Senate all had one voice. However, effective and personable figures gained more and more traction in the first century BC. The previous power-sharing provisions were broken.

A sculpted bust of Julius Caesar by Andrea di Pietro di Marco Ferrucci, 1465–1526, Florence.
The final populist was Caesar, who overthrew the traditional means of Democratic rule. The Metropolitan Museum of Art’s Bequest to Benjamin Altman, 1913

Caesar was one of these characters who had the most significance. He overthrew the traditional means of Democrat government, becoming the best political. Caesar completely broke the system according to his defense victories, great fortune, and huge popular appeal.

Caesar accelerated the growth of executive power in a single individual. The Roman Republic itself would never recover from this.

Trump has even diminished important corporations and expanded the authority of a singular executive branch. The seat of the Federal Reserve and the harassing judges are additional instances of meddling.

Trump relies on famous charm to avoid having negative consequences for these deeds. His TV job, political rallies, and dominance of the media cycle all contribute to a cult of personality.

Caesar apologised for concentrating executive authority solely on himself. He was fatally stabbed by a group of enraged lawmakers. Nevertheless, the state was beyond saving.

Trump and America were distinct from Caesar and the Roman Republic. Trump is not a blue-blooded aristocratic like Caesar was. While America is in decline, Rome had its most potent centuries before it.

Trump has no defense training, but some people have compared him to Caesar. AP via The Conversation / Julia Demaree Nikhinson;  

Augustus: the transformation of Octavian

Caesar failed to make the transition from the nation to the monarchy. Octavian, his brother, did that, according to him. Following Caesar’s murder in 44 BCE, there were more than ten civil wars that followed, and Octavian eventually became Augustus ( 27 BCE–14 CE ) or emperor.

Augustus lacked the most powerful person in the world, over the troops, social institutions, and courts, despite his claim to recover the republic. He completed the process that Caesar and another began, dominating the Senate and previously powerful jobs like consulships.

Similar comparisons can be drawn between Trump and Augustus ‘ dominance of the entire political system. Trump is compared to Augustus by some spectators. They observe Trump’s institutional coercion, including that of the courts and media, that places restrictions on political power.

A cult of personality developed by Augustus, which is a hallmark of Trump’s increase.

Nero: from a nationalist to a pariah

Nero, a vibrant successor to Augustus, used advisors without political backgrounds ( 54–68 CE). For instance, Epaphroditus, a past slaves, was Nero’s minister. He managed the flow of information between the king and himself. He became extremely powerful and devoted a lot to Nero.

Trump has displayed related instincts. Consider the numerous authority to slash government spending that Elon Musk and his lackadaisical staff have been given.

Like Trump, Nero has a talent for entertaining. He sang and recited poetry in public, which past emperors did not do. The populace as a whole loved it, but the leaders detested it. Additionally, Naro hosted beautiful banquets at the castle.

However, by the time he died by suicide at the age of 30, Nero had completely isolated all.

Trump is overly simplistic to call him a Nero, as other people have done, nevertheless. Trump’s victory in the presidential poll shows that he still has a huge support base.

Florence, Italy, January 4, 2024: Bust of Nero
Like Trump, Nero has a talent for entertaining. Shannon/Ivan Moreno

Roman kings were constrained by laws.

The institutions of state were also enshrined by Roman emperors despite their dominance. Some people had shameful consequences because of the army, the most significant state institution.

The unhappy emperor Caracalla was killed while attempting to rest himself in 217 CE.

Severus Alexander, the Emperor, was killed by his own army in 235 CE while he was clutching his family’s hand.

Some people think that the US troops might intervene to defend Trump’s constitutional rights. However, the military’s relation with the US government is more complicated than that of Rome’s.

Some rulers lost appeal to the public because of their haughty behavior toward the Senate, judge officials, and their own lieutenants.

Domitian was killed in a court chancellor crime in 96 CE. Some people praised his dying for displaying his authoritarian behavior.

Additionally, in 192 CE, Emperor Commodus was murdered by a champion boxer despite being well-known for his eccentric antics and open games. His girlfriend, the court chamberlain, and the prefect of the Praetorian orchestrated it. Commodus was labeled a “public opponent” by the Senate.

The sluggish influence of professional power

Trump’s subsequent expression is likely to be defined by the excessive use of executive power. However, he cannot overlook some restrictions. Some of the most effective people have operations abroad. A significant indication of this is China, the second-largest nation in terms of debt-holders.

The Trump trend may be dead before the end of the world is reached. I sincerely hope it doesn’t come to an end with the cruelty some of the kings experienced.

Important institutions may be threatened forever by executive overreach and harassment, which could permanently damage America’s reputation. We are aware of the benefits in the case of old Rome. What will come second in America is a great mystery.

Peter Edwell is Macquarie University’s associate professor of historical past.

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Russian clout fading, China reshaping Central Asia energy sector – Asia Times

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Over the past few years, China has been establishing closer relations with countries in Central Asia. In 2023, trade between China and the Central Asian region increased by 27 % to US$ 89 billion. With every nation that except Turkmenistan, Chinese business increased.

In a study that examined the effects of China’s sprawling Belt and Road Initiative in lower- and middle-income nations, I examined how Foreign investment is affecting Uzbekistan’s energy field.

Since 2020, Chinese funding in Uzbekistan has increased considerably. By the year’s close, it had surpassed US$ 2.8 billion, increasing from US$ 2.8 billion. Over 3, 450 Chinese companies are currently present in Uzbekistan, making up about 20 % of all international companies it.

One of the main factors contributing to China’s growing presence in Central Asia is to enhance strength cooperation. China hopes to lessen its dependence on nations like Russia by becoming a big client, provider, and investor in the country’s energy sector.

Since the Soviet Union’s 19th-century invasion of the area, Central Asia has a political and economic reliance on Russia. Much of its system was constructed to sell goods like cotton and power to Russia, with the latter selling it for higher rates to Europe. This network has mostly remained unchanged up until recently.

Yet, some Central Asian nations have been able to reduce their reliance on Russia over the past ten or thus. With a maximum communicate of more than 80 %, China has grown to be the major supplier of Uzbek gas. And in 2022, Uzbekistan exported nearly US$ 2 billion worth of goods to China, matching its volume of trade with Russia.

These business patterns are reflected in the investment in energy system. Central Asia has substantial oil and gas reserves. However, the majority of the pipes in the area were primarily directed to Russia and, in some cases, to Turkey.

With China’s assistance, east-oriented pipes have been constructed and maintained. These pipes have made it easier to deal with China and helped to reduce operating spend in Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan’s energy industries.

In 2025, China intends to begin building of a network that runs through Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan pending the conclusion of a contract for oil supply with Turkmenistan. This will improve China’s ties to the area in terms of strength.

I conducted plan interviews with Uzbeks and those involved in the Uzbek power sector a few years ago while conducting fieldwork there. Offers with China were viewed as more trustworthy than those with Russia, which has historically renegotiated the terms of long-term power agreements with Central Asian nations or added harsh terms to its favor.

For instance, the Uzbek authorities needed more gas to meet local demand in 2018. Uzbekistan will receive the oil from a mutual Lukoil-Uzbek production facility, but at a high price, according to the Russian energy company Lukoil Energy. Lukoil owed the Uzbek government$ 600 million in debt.

China’s role in the Uzbek power sector has an indirect impact on the country’s natural economy. Users were exposed to the risk of relying on a single power supply because of the pandemic, which caused Uzbekistan’s gas exports to China to decline considerably.

Since 2021, China’s fuel exports have recovered. However, this horror spurred politicians to look into ways to diversify Uzbekistan’s power generation away from fossil fuels. Uzbekistan has invested more than US$ 4 billion in renewable energy production over the past few years, with China frequently providing the technology and expertise needed.

With the assistance of Chinese firms, large solar power plants have been planned and constructed close to the Afghan capital, Tashkent, as well as other places like Navoi. Foreign companies have provided wind turbines for jobs in Ferghana, which is close to Kyrgyzstan.

In addition to speakers, transportation providers, and professionals, there is a growing need for qualified and semi-skilled labor thanks to Chinese-led investment in the renewable energy sector. My respondents noted good, albeit negligible, effects on work and income in the sector.

New difficulties lie away

Nevertheless, Chinese involvement in the energy sector in Central Asia has its benefits. Political and economic risk may be a result of Uzbekistan’s oil trade with China.

Energy companies are more lucrative because the trade cost of Uzbek fuel is more successful than the regional government subsidy, so exports have taken precedence over the local market. Consumers in Afghanistan frequently have to deal with rationed fuel supplies or no exposure to any gas, especially during the winter when demand is at its highest.

This has caused unsatisfaction in the Afghan population, particularly in rural areas where individuals have had to burn alternative fuel sources like coal, firewood, and animal dung. These power options harm the environment and the health of the planet.

Russian oil and gas have been subject to additional competition from Uzbek gas due to European sanctions since 2022, the same year Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Russian fuel suppliers have searched for other markets in Asia to evade sanctions. According to industry flow information, India, Turkey, and perhaps China have increased the amount of Soviet fossil fuels they purchase.

However, overall, the state of play in the world power sector appears to be changing. Central Asia has a significant chance of succeeding.

At SOAS, University of London, Lorena Lombardozzi is a senior lecturer in the political economy of international growth.

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As global players focus on the Arctic, US icebreakers are scarce – Asia Times

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Nothing on earth is the Arctic Circle where global warming is occurring more quickly than there is. Over the past two years, the Arctic has grown five degrees Fahrenheit cooler. Additionally, the tendency is getting more and more rapid, with the Arctic warming nearly four times as quickly as the rest of the world.

Arctic middle temperatures are expected to rise by up to 2 degrees Celsius annually over the next ten years, according to climate experts.

Although temperature normally change with glacier rate, in the Arctic those transformations are then visible to the naked attention: Last year marked a concerning increase in northern wildfires and flood.

The lakes of the Arctic Sea, which run from Russia’s northern Siberian coasts to Greenland, are opening at an extraordinary rate as climate change spreads apace. For the first time in observed history, regular industrial tracking is now available in the Arctic.

Efforts to traverse Eurasia are certainly not novel. Vitus Bering explored the antarctic lakes nearly three centuries ago in 1728, rounding the sea between Alaska and Siberia that bears his name.

The Northern Sea way across the Arctic’s Russian coastline was only fully mapped out by adventurers until the 1870s. And only in 2013 did a commercial vehicle basically make the entire extended north trek from Europe to Asia, even with an opener bodyguard. &nbsp,

However, the Arctic Seas have drastically improved in the last ten years as a result of this. As a result, politics is fast arriving in the region, a pattern that I outline in my new book, Eurasian Maritime Geopolitics.

The financial stakes are, for one, higher than previously. The Arctic is a huge, untapped resource hub for natural elements essential to 21st centuries competitors. The region harbors roughly a quarter of the unexplored oil and natural gas reserves on earth, as well as 150 rare earth deposits, valued at around$ 1 trillion. The high-tech industries, and therefore the countries and businesses attempting to preserve professional power status, are dependent on platinum, nickel, and other rare metals kept underground.

With 240 species of fish in abundance, the Arctic Sea, which is about 1.5 days the size of the United States, is comparatively shallow, making it suitable for abuse when weather conditions are favorable.

The political-military bets are as high as the economical ones, with the international structure increasingly divided and the Arctic a perfect bone of contention. Due to its unique significance and its normal issue, the Arctic Ocean is a region of strange value. The closest proximity to the United States and Russia lies across the North Pole, making the Arctic seas a natural breeding ground for conflict in the atomic age.

The same political real has sequentially made Greenland critical: it is not accidental that the US submitted a bid to buy Greenland in 1946, that the US has maintained a big Strategic Air Command center in northern Greenland since 1951, or that President Donald Trump has been obsessed with Greenland as well.

The economic and military ramifications of Arctic competition are amplifying in the current international conflicts.

In particular, Russia has a lot of room for improvement in the rapidly developing Arctic sea lanes. Fifty-three percent of the Arctic shore lies in Russia ( compared with less than four percent for America’s Alaska ). As the continent’s temperature rises more quickly than that of the US-Canadian border, making it navigable along Russia’s northern Arctic shores.

Crucially, Russia has sought unimpeded access to the open sea since Peter the Great to Vladimir Putin for centuries, but which it has never been able to achieve elsewhere in the world.

The Arctic has likewise become a zone of strong geo-economic and geopolitical interest for China in recent years. The largest energy consumer on earth, of course, is naturally drawn to Arctic energy resources. China is especially motivated to win the race for the Arctic because it imports a lot of oil from the Persian Gulf via dangerous Indo-Pacific sea lanes, which are dominated by the United States.

Once accessible to China, the Arctic would solve the problem of American strangulation of chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca. Additionally, it would make Beijing’s important minerals leader more difficult, putting pressure on Washington’s efforts to compete effectively. Additionally, Beijing’s friendly ties to Russia, a powerful force in the Arctic, are a further geopolitical plus.

Global economic and political-military stakes driving today’s Arctic geopolitical competition began in slow motion. Russia placed a titanium flag on the North Pole in August 2007. Moscow is now secretly claiming more than 50 % of the Arctic Ocean floor.

Two decades ago, with Vladimir Putin in power, Russia began refurbishing Cold War military bases in the North, and building more icebreakers. It currently has well over 40 bases, which is roughly a third of the total for all the major NATO allies in the near-Arctic, including Finland, Canada, and the United States, combined.

In 2009, the Russian North Pole research station was helped by the atomic icebreaker Yamal.

On the economic side, Russia has also pioneered exploitation of energy resources along the Arctic shores– with China’s help.

Moscow’s original proposals, which included Western multinationals like Exxon, Shell, and British Petroleum, were made 20 years ago with their superior drilling technology for Arctic climes. However, Western businesses quickly vanished, both for economic reasons and as a result of the sanctions imposed by the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea.

In 2013 Russia began construction on the massive$ 27 billion Yamal LNG project on the Arctic shores, with China’s CNPC as a 20 percent shareholder. The first Yamal LNG train was finished in 2017.

Russia started working on the nearby Gydan Peninsula Arctic II project in 2018 with East Asian support, once more. In exchange for the provision of capital and equipment, China receives Russian oil from these specific projects today– and does so illicitly through the Northern Sea Route.

Economic logic: Russian’s vast resources, combined with the economic expansion of Asia, fueled the gradual development of the Arctic sea-lane for fifteen years in the early twenty-first century. However, the age of serious Arctic maritime geopolitics is now in full swing because of short, sharp periods of structural transformation like war. &nbsp,

One catalytic event was the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, but much more significant was the Western sanctions following Russia’s occupation of Crimea. That resulted in a number of significant geo-economic and geo-political adjustments that are currently influencing the intense Arctic maritime geopolitics that are emerging.

Climate change, as noted above, is a quiet background factor raising the stakes of geopolitical conflict: When the seas are opened, economic and political-military opportunities become &nbsp, more realistic.

However, the decisive actions of key players in the new Russian aggression gave stale geopolitical rivalries new life. The most significant additions to NATO were the addition of Sweden in March 2024 and Finland in April ( April 2023 ). Following their actions, seven of the eight nations directly bordering on the Arctic were members of NATO, with only Russia – with the longest Arctic coastline and the strongest economic stakes – excluded.

Unsurprisingly, Russia used its own countermeasures to address the new geopolitical environment surrounding the Ukraine conflict. Due to its strategic importance and economic potential, Russia is an “indisputable priority” with Russia, as Putin himself has already stated.

To consolidate its position in a vital region, Moscow has both escalated provocative actions of its own in the Arctic, as in the Baltic seas also, and simultaneously teamed up with China to put pressure on NATO and on the US bilaterally.

In 2023, Russian and Chinese ships jointly patrolled the Arctic Seas, and in July of that year, Russian and Chinese bombers launched a joint investigation in the US ADIZ over the Bering Sea within 200 miles of the Alaskan coast.

Russian and Chinese Arctic brinkmanship has naturally influenced the United States. In 2013, following the first Arctic seaway transit of China’s icebreaker Xue Long ( Ice Dragon ) and the inauguration of Russia’s Yamal LNG project, the Obama administration articulated a US Arctic strategy.

Washington made major Crimea sanctions a result of controls over &nbsp, the supply of cutting-edge US cold-water oil drilling technology. In 2024 the Biden administration’s Department of Defense issued an update to the 2013 strategy, mentioning both Russia and China as primary challengers, with the goal o curbing Russia’s long-term Arctic development capacity.

The US has steadily put more of a focus on the Arctic and has put an increasingly bipartisan emphasis on the area.

Despite making foolish diplomatic gestures and having a laudable concern about &nbsp, environmental dangers, the United States has remained silent about the pressing geo-economic issues that are now afoot along the Arctic sea lanes.

Most importantly, the US has failed to build up its domestic icebreaker capacity, nor has it begun developing related naval capabilities that would allow it to actively contest and contain the rapid Russian and Chinese buildup along the Arctic sea lanes.

And it has done remarkably little to support its Arctic friends with regard to infrastructure investment support up until recently. For instance, the US does not have any deepwater ports in the Arctic that can accommodate large container ships. Canada has only one, lying 500 miles south of the Arctic Circle.

Russia currently has more than 40 heavy or medium-duty icebreakers operating in the Arctic, with several of them being nuclear-powered. The Great Lakes are the only places that the US’s icebreaker capacity is concentrated.

The July, 2024 ICE agreement with Canada and Finland, concluded at the 2024 Washington NATO summit, does begin to address the icebreaker crisis in multilateral fashion. Despite the obvious shortcomings of America’s own domestic shipbuilding sector, which are rooted in its own flagrant shortcomings, it continues to be a deficient.

Too many of the high cards still ominously lie in Russian and Chinese hands in the new game of Arctic maritime geopolitics.

Kent Calder is Director of the Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at Johns Hopkins University SAIS, former Special Advisor to the US Ambassador to Japan and the recent author of&nbsp, Eurasian Maritime Geopolitics&nbsp, ( Brookings, 2025 ).

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Before the missiles: How disinformation could spark Asia’s next war – Asia Times

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” The issue with false information is not that citizens believe it. The issue is that they no longer assume anything.
— Yuval Noah Harari, 21 Training for the 21st Century

The largest Western issue since World War II was sparked by Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, this conflict is more than just being won with tanks and missiles; it is also a constant struggle between reality and understanding.

Propaganda, propaganda, and media exploitation have become essential tools of contemporary war from Kyiv to Moscow, and from Washington to Beijing.

The battle for tale dominance is fundamentally influencing the war’s course even though the focus is still largely on natural battlegrounds. The fight against details is occurring all over the world, and Asia is carefully watching.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict teaches somber lessons about how disinformation can be used to destroy, separate, and rule as geopolitical tensions increase throughout the Indo-Pacific, especially in Taiwan, the South China Sea, and as always the Korean Peninsula.

Propaganda as a means of corporate warfare

Propaganda has long been used to stifle opposition, support anger, and elicit acceptance. However, thanks to digital platforms, analytic synthesis, and a squabbling media environment, its scope and scale have grown rapidly in the 21st century.

Russian position advertising sources like RT and Sputnik have become a key component of the Kremlin’s tale planning. These platforms condition reality rather than just broadcasting information.

Moscow has swung local support and soiled international waters by portraying Russia’s actions as “defensive” and portraying Ukraine as a European marionette state.

However, each country’s narrative is unique. The issue is described by US and Western media as an unprovoked war of a royal state, a view that NATO, EU institutions, and international human rights organizations have reinforced.

The outcome? Competing experiences where viewers watch vastly various adaptations of the same function.

” Misinformation and disinformation” are among the biggest threats to global security, according to the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024. This danger is even greater in conflict areas.

False stories, elaborated theories, and coordinated promotions blur the line between fact and fiction, lowering public confidence in journalism, governance, and yet democracy itself.

This distrust is way beyond Ukraine. Governments in Asia have faced and used disinformation campaigns, both domestically and internationally, that polarize cultures and misrepresent votes.

China’s online advertising in Taiwan aims to denigrate and divide the country. These aren’t just isolated incidents; they represent a vision of the unseen war that will shape the world.

Russia and the West internet conflict

How people interpret fight in the media is a crucial part of the equation. How how information is presented, in Erving Goffman’s Framing Theory, affects how people perceive truth.

Consider the missile attack launched by 2022 against a shopping mall in Kremenchuk, an Ukrainian capital. According to the Western press, it was a deliberate Russian invasion on citizens, citing satellite imagery and Russian sources. Russian media accused American media of fabricating information and claimed the destination was a military installation.

The incident demonstrates how the same event can lead to two contradictory conclusions, one for the West and the country’s private audience.

Propaganda produces compromise rather than just manipulating information. State media claimed 95 % of people supported the proceed during Russia’s 2014 annexation, despite reports of persuasion and a lack of international spectators.

The purpose of the conquest was to silence opposition by presenting unification as fact rather than just to justify it.

Similar strategies have been employed in Asia to window contentious activities. How institutions use internet control to create the illusion of national compromise while marginalizing opposition voices are shown by China’s management of the protests in Hong Kong, India’s narrative surrounding Kashmir, or Myanmar’s protection of the Rohingya crisis.

International fragmentation and horizontal realities

The design of horizontal realities is one of the most disturbing outcomes of information warfare.

The invasion of Ukraine is widely regarded as a” special military operation” by Russia to defend ethnic Russians from NATO anger. It is viewed as a flagrant violation of international law in the West.

This fragmentation makes political exchange almost unattainable. When people are fed jointly exclusive philosophies, settlement turns out to be a sign of weakness rather than development.

This style is present in Asia as well, from China and Taiwan’s cross-Strait ties to domestic disagreements over international legislation in Japan and South Korea.

Ukrainian public opinion has remained mostly pro-Western despite Russian media’s and its allies ‘ constant pushback. 89 % of Ukrainians support joining NATO, according to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in 2023. Support for Russian independence is rising even in previously pro-Russian regions.

However, the stress of battle is beginning to percolate. Gallup reported that the percentage of people who supported fighting until they won the battle dropped from 73 % in 2022 to 38 % in 2023. These shifting sentiments identify the psychological impact of persistent issue, which authoritarian governments frequently exploit through info adjustment.

Asia’s conundrum of propaganda

Unregulated disinformation can do harm, not just to countries at war, but also to the international system as a whole, with the Russia-Ukraine war providing a terrible forecast for what unregulated disinformation can do.

The implications for Asia are clear: if disinformation persists, it may continue to undermine public trust, undermine political institutions, and aggravate local tensions.

The Indo-Pacific is now a location for narrative conflicts. A potential where electric influence operations become the norm, as evidenced by China’s growing media coverage, North Korea’s growing private disinformation, and Southeast Asians ‘ growing private disinformation.

To combat this unknown war, Asia may engage in media education, cybersecurity, and cross-border collaboration. Then, Asia might be the front line, and the next major conflict might be won with words rather than weapons.

The Russia-Ukraine issue redefines how wars are fought and understood, not just by reinventing Eastern Europe. The greatest danger, as Harari suggests, may not be that people stop believing everything, but rather that they do so in spite of what Harari suggests.

The stakes don’t get higher for Asia. The region has take decisive action to safeguard truth, transparency, and trust as information becomes more and more a weapon.

Zaheer Ahmed Baloch is a professor of international relations with a focus on media dynamics in world affairs and security.

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IMF: Economic uncertainty is now higher than it was during Covid – Asia Times

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Even among some of the world’s leading economic thinkers, confident predictions are currently hard to come by, according to the International Monetary Fund ( IMF)’s ( IMF) just released its World Economic Outlook.

A fortnight of seminars, presentations, and press events focusing on the worldwide economy, foreign growth, and world financial markets are held each flower in Washington, DC. The IMF releases its global economic growth prediction at both the flower discussions and the annual meetings, which are held each fall.

The IMF has released a foundation estimates and an clause analyzing the tax events that occurred between April 9 and April 14 for its spring meeting in 2025. According to the fund’s report, world GDP will grow by 2.8 % in 2025 and 3.0 % in 2026. For the euro area, growth will be 0.8 % and 1.2 % for 2025 and 2026 respectively.

These projections are significantly revised from IMF data that was released just three months ago. Growth in the euro area is down 0.2 % compared to the fund’s January update, and growth globally is down by 0.5 %.

We live in a much more ambiguous world than we did three months ago, so understanding the most recent IMF document and its negative estimates is essential.

Trump, taxes, and doubt

The term “unpredictable” may be sufficient if one had to total up the new US tax scheme in one word. The largest price increase in modern history occurred on April 2, 2025, referred to as” Liberation Day.”

The US leader next made two more presentations only one year later. Second, a 90-day ban on tax increases, which he allegedly did in search of bilateral treaties with the nations to which he had applied levies above 10 %. Next, that China would not be subject to this restriction, with the price increases on its goods increasing to 145 %.

This freeze means that until July, EU products that are sold to the US will be subject to a 10 % tariff rather than the 20 % that was announced on April 2. The new US administration’s 10 % application is still significantly higher than the standard tariff of 1.34 % that was in effect before April 5th, though.

But what will the price get after these 90 time? What will happen in December? What will happen in two centuries? What products will not be subject to the exemption? How far will China’s trade war with the US come? Nobody knows the answer to all of these issues. The IMF’s flower forecast for this uncertainty is clear.

Confusion is unstoppable.

The world industry doubt index from the IMF is now seven times higher than it was in October 2024, which is significantly higher than the pandemic.

This uncertainty affects the economy more severely than a large but clear tariff. Companies can at least restructure their manufacturing processes with a price, and customers can look for alternative goods. There is a charge, but at least businesses and consumers can make plans.

No one can determine these expenses now, though, because no one is aware of the impact of tariff changes. A US company might choose to purchase a particular product from the EU immediately assuming the price will be 10 %, but it turns out that the price has increased to 100 % once the product has arrived in the US because a political advisor predicted raising tariffs on that product would benefit the US economy.

Although it may seem incredible, the levies are being decided and put into effect in reality. According to one theory, Peter Navarro, the government’s financial advisor and tax idealist, was in another room at the time, so they were only able to persuade Trump to stop new tax increases.

Silence is ultimately the best course of action for both consumers and businesses because of this volatility.

Anxiety and turbulence

It should come as no surprise that financial markets are so unstable because of these regular plan changes. Financial areas are now experiencing levels of uncertainty and anxiety comparable to those seen during Covid-19, despite Trump’s proudly humblingly praising rising share prices soon after the price freeze was announced.

Five years ago, uncertainty was linked to a rise in the demand for US government bonds as a result of the “flight to health” effect, which forces investors to sell higher-risk investments and purchase safer assets like gold and government bonds in times of doubt.

We are now seeing the exact same. Since” Liberation Day,” the price of US bonds has decreased, which indicates that investors are selling them. In other words, the US government’s bill is no longer viewed as a protected asset. This paradigm shift may lead to even more financial volatility in the future given the impact of the money and US bill on global industry.

Supply stores are suddenly bridging.

One thing shares the recent situation with Covid-19, the next big global economic crisis, with the upheaval of global supply chains. Production was compelled to cease during the pandemic due to confinement. It is the imposition of tariffs as of right now.

There is, nevertheless, a second significant change. People were aware that there would only be so long before vaccines would be accessible and normal would return during Covid. Today, President Trump’s own advisors sell him all kinds of plans to protect US economical interests, hardly any disease, but rather instability in financial markets.

At the Universitat de Barcelona, Sergi Basco is the head of economics.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Choosing the next Pope Francis – Asia Times

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He was a tower, a pillar, and a beacon for the typical people, the underprivileged, the have-nots, and those who faced discrimination in any way who wanted to live in harmony, love, and unity with other people and the natural world. Regardless of their faith, Francisco ( Jorge Bergoglio ) was not just the head of the Catholic Church. He was also a voice for the eight billion people who lived on Earth.

Every bishop has attempted to live up to this part, but probably never has a pope put so much effort into it and succeeded in it since early Christianity. So, the first question for his successor is clear: May he chose to change his course or continue on this path? Many in the Church thing, arguing that too much effort to engage non-Christians affects the Church’s integrity.

Francis’s mentoring to Muslims, Hindus, and agnostics did not increase the number of people attending Mass. Temples remained empty, especially in the traditional Catholic regions of Latin America and Europe. His opponents contend that attracting people outside the Church will be futile if they don’t care for the people who currently exist, leaving the organization as a barrel.

The second pope may try to strike a balance between these two trends, but it’s not clear how that will be achieved. The task facing the future pope could be enormous because of such an overall and enormous reach to every person on the planet. The difficulties are possibly more sobering than previously.

Conservatives and Disciples are expanding their influence wherever Catholics again had hold in history, not just in Latin America but also in developing nations like Africa, India, and China. For example, there may be ten million Christians in China, but there could be hundreds of millions of pseudo-Christians or self-proclaimed Christians.

The Church hasn’t been unified on how to process this phenomenon so much. Some claim that it presents a problem and that the faithful may be resurrected with the true faith. Some claim that it is useless; instead, people are more in tune with pastors and communities who have much needs. As more people convert to Christianity and distance themselves from their initial non-Christian beliefs, this conflict grows.

Additionally, there is the complicated problem of mega-states, which hold 40 % of the country’s population, namely, China and India. Francis requested an invitation from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but Francis was not invited, citing concerns raised by the nearby Catholic Church.

In this context, it is obvious that India is more successful in fostering ties with the upcoming bishop. If Modi and the nearby Catholics come to terms, India might be able to ally itself more with the Church, which could have significant political benefits. Modi aims to build a new American identification that is rooted in Hindu nationalism, which frequently contrasts with Christian and Islamic beliefs.

Catholicism has been a part of the subcontinent’s personality since the first century AD, with legends claiming that Jesus traveled to India to study with regional specialists before coming back to Israel at the age of 30.

Christianity is woven into the fabric of American personality, and it might encourage Modi and his friends to accept this reality. India might gain a competitive advantage over China if it practices Catholicism.

Regarding China, the Church might put relations with Beijing on the back burner unless some strong initiatives from China are taken, though such a growth seems implausible. This circumstance may have an effect on China’s standing globally.

As the UN waned and major power engaged in arm-wrestling over several problems, the Church became a centre for speech and covert intervention under Francis. Beijing might find it uncomfortable to be kept out of Vatican conversations.

The cardinal may then choose the next pope to manage these decisions. They are incredibly diverse, with Iran, Pakistan, and Mongolia among the more diverse nations there are than previously. Franciss hoped for a more diverse audience worldwide.

Many of these cardinal have not met and scarcely understand one another, making it challenging to come to a compromise. With 19 chiefs out of 138, with two of them stationed overseas in Jerusalem and Ulaanbaatar, the largest one union is made up of the Italians. They may assist in organizing the conference, but it’s still not clear whether they will fit their preferred prospect in the white robe.

Americans, who have ten chiefs, make up the second-largest party. They were key in choosing Francis, but they are now divided into liberal and conservative parties, making it unclear whether they can exert the same influence.

18 American chiefs are present. The Church’s immediate future is shaped by a number of conversions, pressing issues, and competing political interests between emerging powers like China and historic colonial powers, as well as by migration and other pressing issues.

But, it’s not certain whether a powerful, global-minded number will join this group because the Pope needs to serve as a pastor to the entire world. Secondly, it’s not clear whether the next pope will use traditional criteria when choosing him.

A bishop was traditionally expected to have significant experience in a big Catholic bishop, which would reduce individuals like Cardinal Parolin, the Secretary of State, who has never served as a catholic priest, or Cardinal Bo from Myanmar, whose Christian population is in the minority. Both are viewed as personable and socially knowledgeable, which makes them attractive candidates.

These classic standards may no longer apply because there are more cardinal from nations where Catholics frequently make up small groups and in a world where the majority is in the minority.

Finally, the new pope will have to understand the delicate relationship with the Vatican, which is the world’s greatest superpower, the bulwark of the West, and the one-time biggest donor.

The second bishop must not blindly follow American principles, which may alienate the rest of the world. In contrast, being aggressive might turn off thousands of honest.

The terrible conflict within the American Catholic Church, which traditionalists oppose Francis and liberals back him, all contributes to the state itself, which is racked up by President Donald Trump.

The second bishop may also have to perform a difficult task of bringing America together again.

This content was originally published on Appia Institute, and it has since been republished with authority. Read the original right below.

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Australians hate Trump’s policies and distrust US: poll – Asia Times

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Australians strongly disagree with important procedures of US President Donald Trump, and have largely lost faith in the United States to behave appropriately in the world, according to the Lowy Institute’s 2025 surveys.

Despite this, 80 % of people say the alliance is “very ” or “fairly ” important for Australia’s security, only fractionally down on last year’s 83 %.

The poll also found people nearly evenly divided on whether Peter Dutton ( 35 % ) or Anthony Albanese ( 34 % ) would be the better leader to manage Australia’s relations with Trump.

But Albanese rated much more strongly than Dutton as better able to manage Australia’s relationship with China and President Xi Jinping ( 45 % to 25 % ).

2025 Lowy Institute Poll

Albanese was also well ahead ( 41%-29 % ) when people were asked who would be more competent at handling Australia’s foreign policy over the next three years.

The surveys comes as the “Trump impact” has overshadowed the battle and exceedingly worked against Dutton.

Labor has cast Dutton as having looked to the US for procedures, such as his proposed cuts to the public support. It has labelled him “DOGEy Dutton”, a reference to Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency ( DOGE ).

The Lowy surveys of 2,117 folks was taken between March 3 and 16. This was after Trump had announced plans for a 25 % tariff on steel and aluminium imports, and other tariffs, but before his “Liberation Day ” regime, which saw a 10 % general tariff hitting all countries.

2025 Lowy Institute Poll

Trust in the US has plummeted since the last Lowy poll in 2024, with nearly two-thirds of respondents ( 64 % ) having little or no trust in the US to act responsibly in the world, compared with 44 % a year before.

This is a new lower in the poll’s two-decade past. Trust fell drastically among older citizens. Trust was now comparatively small among younger citizens, and fell by a smaller percentage.

On various Trump stances, the poll found Australians most disapproving (89 % ) of Trump’s pressure on Denmark to sell or hand over its self-governing territory of Greenland to the US.

2025 Lowy Institute Poll

More than eight in ten ( 81 % ) disapproved of Trump’s use of tariffs to pressure other countries to comply with his administration ’s objectives. Three-quarters disapproved of the US withdrawing from the World Health Organization ( 76 % ) and from international climate change agreements ( 74 % ).

In addition, three-quarters ( 74 % ) disapproved of Trump negotiating a deal on the future of Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin that might require Ukraine to accept a loss of territory.

The extraordinary Oval Office battle between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance took place just before the review.

Australians also disapproved of the US cutting spending on foreign aid ( 64 % ) and undertaking mass deportations of undocumented migrants ( 56 % ).

On Trump’s demand that US allies spend more on defense, people were, however, evenly divided ( 49 % approved/disapproved ).

Michelle Grattan is academic brother, University of Canberra

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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When Pope Francis spoke to Asia Times on China – Asia Times

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Pope Francis gave his first-ever meeting on China and the Chinese people on January 28, 2016, to then-Asia Times journalist and China Renmin University senior scientist Francesco Sisci. The Pope urged the world not to worry China ’s rapid rise in a traditional one-hour appointment at the Vatican.

He said the Taiwanese people are in a good time and delivered a message of hope, peace and reconciliation as an alternative to battle, hot or cold. The pope even sent Foreign New Year’s welcome to the Chinese people and President Xi Jinping, the first extended by a Pope to a Chinese president for the Lunar New Year in 2,000 years.

Sisci’s special interview took place in a Vatican house decorated with a mural of the Holy Mary Undoer of Knots, in which she performs the mystery of untying difficult twists. It is republished here on the situation of the Pope’s departure.

ROME– He felt it quickly, or but I sensed, and he tried to put me at ease. He was best. I was in fact frightened. I had spent long periods hammering down every aspect of the questions I was going to ask, and he had wanted time to think and churned them over.

I asked for an appointment on broad social and intellectual issues concerning all Taiwanese, of which over 99 % are no Catholic. I did n’t like to touch on religious or political concerns, of which another Popes, at other times had spoken.

I hoped he could present to frequent Chinese his enormous animal emotion by speaking for the first time ever on issues that worry them regularly – the rupture of the classic relatives, their difficulties in being understood and understanding the western world, their sense of guilt from earlier experiences such as the Cultural Revolution, etc. He did it and gave the Chinese and citizens concerned about China ’s hard fall motives for hope, peace and mediation with each other.

The Pope believes the Chinese are in a good action. He says they should not be scared of this, nor does the rest of the world. He also believes the Chinese have a wonderful legacy of knowledge that will strengthen them and everyone and will support all to find a quiet way ahead. This appointment is, in some respect, the Pope’s manner of blessing China.

Sisci: What is China for you? How did you think China to become as a young man, given that China, for Argentina, is not the East but the far West? What does Matteo Ricci mean to you?

Pope Francis :  For me, China has always been a research point of glory. A wonderful country. But more than a state, a wonderful culture, with an unlimited wisdom. For me, as a child, whenever I read something about China, it had the ability to persuade my enthusiasm. I have enthusiasm for China.

Eventually, I looked into Matteo Ricci’s career and I saw how this man felt the same thing in the specific method I did, admiration, and how he was able to enter into speech with this wonderful society, with this age-old knowledge. He was able to “encounter ” it.

When I was young, and China was spoken of, we thought of the Great Wall. The rest was not known in my homeland. But as I looked more and more into the matter, I had an experience of encounter which was very different, in time and manner, to that experienced by Ricci.

Yet I came across something I had not expected. Ricci’s experience teaches us that it is necessary to enter into dialogue with China, because it is an accumulation of wisdom and history. It is a land blessed with many things. And the Catholic Church, one of whose duties is to respect all civilizations, before  this  civilization, I would say, has the duty to respect it with a capital “R. ” The Church has great potential to receive culture.

The other day I had the opportunity to see the paintings of another great Jesuit, Giuseppe Castiglione– who also had the Jesuit virus ( laughs ). Castiglione knew how to express beauty, the experience of openness in dialogue: receiving from others and giving of one’s self on a wavelength that is “civilized ” of civilizations.

When I say “civilized”, I do not mean only “educated ” civilizations, but also civilizations that encounter one another. Also, I don’t know whether it is true but they say that Marco Polo was the one who brought pasta noodles to Italy ( laughs ).   So it was the Chinese who invented them. I don’t know if this is true. But I say this in passing.

This is the impression I have, great respect.   And more than this,   when I crossed China for the first time, I was told in the aircraft: “Within ten minutes we will enter Chinese airspace, and send your greeting”. I confess that I felt very emotional, something that does not usually happen to me. I was moved  to be flying over this great richness of culture and wisdom.

Sisci:  China, for the first time in its thousands of years of history, is emerging from its own environment and opening to the world, creating unprecedented challenges for itself and for the world. You have spoken of a third world war that is furtively advancing: what challenges does this present in the quest for peace?

Pope Francis :  Being afraid is never a good counselor.   Fear is not a good counselor. If a father and a mother are fearful when they have an adolescent son, they will not know how to deal with him well.

In other words, we must not fear challenges of any kind, since everyone, male and female, has within them the capacity to find ways of co-existing, of respect and mutual admiration. And it is obvious that so much culture and so much wisdom, and in addition, so much technical knowledge – we have only to think of age-old medicinal techniques– cannot remain enclosed within a country; they tend to expand, to spread, to communicate.

Man tends to communicate, a civilization tends to communicate. It is evident that when communication happens in an aggressive tone to defend oneself, then wars result. But I would not be fearful. It is a great challenge to keep the balance of peace. Here we have Grandmother Europe, as I said in Strasbourg. It appears that she is no longer Mother Europe. I hope she will be able to reclaim that role again.

And she receives from this age-old country an increasingly rich contribution. And so it is necessary to accept the challenge and to run the risk of balancing this exchange for peace. The Western world, the Eastern world and China all have the capacity to maintain the balance of peace and the strength to do so. We must find the way, always through dialogue; there is no other way. ( He opens his arms as if extending an embrace. )

Encounter is achieved through dialogue. The true balance of peace is realized through dialogue. Dialogue does not mean that we end up with a compromise, half the cake for you and the other half for me. This is what happened in Yalta and we saw the results. No, dialogue means: look, we have got to this point, I may or may not agree, but let us walk together; this is what it means to build. And the cake stays whole, walking together.

The cake belongs to everyone, it is humanity, culture. Carving up the cake, as in Yalta, means dividing humanity and culture into small pieces. And culture and humanity cannot be carved into small pieces. When I speak about this large cake I mean it in a positive sense. Everyone has an influence to bear on the common good of all. ( The Pope smiles and asks: “ I don’t know if the example of the cake is clear for the Chinese? ”, I nod: “ I think so. ” )

Sisci: China has experienced over the last few decades tragedies without comparison. Since 1980, the Chinese have sacrificed that which has always been most dear to them, their children.

For the Chinese, these are very serious wounds. Among other things, this has left enormous emptiness in their consciences and, somehow, an extremely deep need to be reconciled with themselves and to forgive themselves. In the Year of Mercy, what message can you offer the Chinese people?

Francesco Sisci interviewing Pope Francis in a 2016 photo. Image: Author Supplied.

Pope Francis :  The aging of a population and of humanity is happening in many places. Here in Italy the birth rate is almost below zero, and in Spain too, more or less. The situation in France, with its policy of assistance to families, is improving. And it is obvious that populations age.

They age and they do not have children. In Africa, for example, it was a pleasure to see children in the streets.   Here in Rome, if you walk around, you will see very few children. Perhaps behind this there is the fear you are alluding to, the mistaken perception, not that we will simply fall behind, but that we will fall into misery, so therefore, let’s not have children.

There are other societies that have opted for the contrary. For example, during my trip to Albania, I was astonished to discover that the average age of the population is approximately 40 years. There exist young countries; I think Bosnia and Herzegovina is the same. Countries that have suffered and opt for youth. Then there is the problem of work. Something that China does not have, because it has the capacity to offer work both in the countryside and in the city.

And it is true, the problem for China of not having children must be very painful; because the pyramid is then inverted and a child has to bear the burden of his father, mother, grandfather and grandmother. And this is exhausting, demanding, disorientating. It is not the natural way. I understand that China has opened up possibilities on this front.

Sisci: How should these challenges of families in China be faced, given that they find themselves in a process of profound change and no longer correspond to the traditional Chinese model of the family?

Pope Francis :  Taking up the theme, in the Year of Mercy, what message can I give to the Chinese people? The history of a people is always a path. A people at times walks more quickly, at times more slowly, at times it pauses, at times it makes a mistake and goes backwards a little, or takes the wrong path and has to retrace its steps to follow the right way.

But when a people moves forward, this does not worry me because it means they are making history. And I believe that the Chinese people are moving forward and this is their greatness. It walks, like all populations, through lights and shadows.

Looking at this past – and perhaps the fact of not having children creates a complex – it is healthy to take responsibility for one’s own path. Well, we have taken this route, something here did not work at all, so now other possibilities are opened up.

Other issues come into play: the selfishness of some of the wealthy sectors who prefer not to have children, and so forth. They have to take responsibility for their own path. And I would go further: do not be bitter, but be at peace with your own path, even if you have made mistakes. I cannot say my history was bad, that I hate my history. ( The Pope gives me a penetrating look. )

No, every people must be reconciled with its history as its own path, with its successes and its mistakes. And this reconciliation with one’s own history brings much maturity, much growth. Here I would use the word mentioned in the question: mercy. It is healthy for a person to have mercy towards himself, not to be sadistic or masochistic.

That is wrong. And I would say the same for a people: it is healthy for a population to be merciful towards itself. And this nobility of soul … I don’t know whether or not to use the word forgiveness, I don’t know.

But to accept that this was my path, to smile, and to keep going. If one gets tired and stops, one can become bitter and corrupt. And so, when one takes responsibility for one’s own path, accepting it for what it was, this allows one’s historical and cultural richness to emerge, even in difficult moments.

And how can it be allowed to emerge? Here we return to the first question: in dialogue with today’s world. To dialogue does not mean that I surrender myself, because at times there is the danger, in the dialogue between different countries, of hidden agendas, namely, cultural colonizations.

It is necessary to recognize the greatness of the Chinese people, who have always maintained their culture. And their culture – I am not speaking about ideologies that there may have been in the past – their culture was not imposed.

Sisci: The country ’s economic growth proceeded at an overwhelming pace but this has also brought with it human and environmental disasters, which Beijing is striving to confront and resolve.

At the same time, the pursuit of work efficiency is burdening families with new costs: sometimes children and parents are separated due to the demands of work. What message can you give them?

Pope Francis :  I feel rather like a “mother-in-law ” giving advice on what should be done ( laughs ). I would suggest a healthy realism; reality must be accepted from wherever it comes. This is our reality; as in football, the goalkeeper must catch the ball from wherever it comes. Reality must be accepted for what it is. Be realistic. This is our reality.

First, I must be reconciled with reality. I don’t like it, I am against it, it makes me suffer, but if I don’t come to terms with it, I won’t be able to do anything. The second step is to work to improve reality and to change its direction.

Now, you see that these are simple suggestions, somewhat commonplace. But to be like an ostrich, that hides its head in the sand so as not to see reality, nor accept it, is no solution.   Well then, let us discuss, let us keep searching, let us continue walking, always on the path, on the move. The water of a river is pure because it flows ahead; still water becomes stagnant. It is necessary to accept reality as it is, without disguising it, without refining it, and to find ways of improving it.  

Well, here is something that is very important. If this happens to a company which has worked for twenty years and there is a business crisis, then there are few avenues of creativity to improve it. On the contrary, when it happens in an age-old country, with its age-old history, its age-old wisdom, its age-old creativity, then tension is created between the present problem and this past of ancient richness.

And this tension brings fruitfulness as it looks to the future. I believe that the great richness of China today lies in looking to the future from a present that is sustained by the memory of its cultural past. Living in tension, not in anguish, and the tension is between its very rich past and the challenge of the present which has to be carried forth into the future; that is, the story does n’t end here.

Sisci: On the occasion of the upcoming Chinese New Year of the Monkey, would you like to send a greeting to the Chinese people, to the Authorities and to President Xi Jinping?

Pope Francis :  On the eve of the New Year, I wish to convey my best wishes and greetings to President Xi Jinping and to all the Chinese people. And I wish to express my hope that they never lose their historical awareness of being a great people, with a great history of wisdom, and that they have much to offer to the world.

The world looks to this great wisdom of yours. In this New Year, with this awareness, may you continue to go forward in order to help and cooperate with everyone in caring for our common home and our common peoples. Thank you!

Francesco Sisci  is currently director of the Appia Institute think tank.

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