Proposal to legalise playing in pleasure structures risks undermining the unification of the alliance government
The casino–entertainment difficult costs has become a political time-bomb for the Pheu Thai-led state, but issues remain as to which group will bear the brunt when the proposed legislation is put to a vote in parliament.
A second reading of this very questionable costs in the House of Representatives was originally scheduled for April 9, but the president’s attempt to fast-track its deliberation met with resistance, leading to a postponement until the next legislative session.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, likewise Pheu Thai president, insisted the state has never withdrawn the bill, but it has serious problems to focus on, including the United States ‘ mutual taxes.
She said the government would maintain gathering open input and evidently talk the project’s aims, while opponents of the bill– which involves legalising casinos as part of entertainment complexes– demanded it be scrapped completely.
How this political time-bomb unfolds largely depends on how each party handles it when the next session convenes on July 2.
There are possible scenarios for how this matter, widely seen as threatening coalition unity, plays out.
First, if the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration decides to bide its time and wait until society is ready, the government is expected to complete its term without strong pressure from street protests or from within the coalition. It only needs to ensure that its economic strategy works as it waits for the next general election.
If the government pushes ahead with the bill with all coalition parties on board, the entire government will be the target of critics who oppose casinos. The ruling Pheu Thai Party and Bhumjaithai, the second-largest party in the coalition, will have to close ranks and work harder to win back support.
If Bhumjaithai distances itself from the bill, the Pheu Thai-led government will be without Bhumjaithai with a razor-thin majority in the House. It will have to bargain with smaller parties for support to be able to see out its term.
However, Bhumjaithai, which currently oversees the Interior Ministry, will also have a price to pay for rejecting the bill. It will be forced to leave the coalition and lose control of the ministry and possibly connections with major political families, widely seen as major tools to strengthen political support.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said the bill is a dilemma for the government and the Bhumjaithai Party, which will face setbacks no matter what decision it makes.
Bhumjaithai has been caught in the middle since party secretary-general Chaichanok Chidchob’s announcement that he would not support casinos, he said.
If the party acts as an opponent within the government, it cannot afford to remain in the coalition. However, if the party supports the bill, Mr Chaichanok will be in the hot seat, Mr Thanaporn said.
Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul will also face heavy criticism as he portrays himself as a conservative, and supporting casinos will raise doubts about his ethics.
” Even if Bhumjaithai doesn’t support the bill, the government is unlikely to fall apart. It would still hold a majority, albeit a razor-thin one. It can lobby the Palang Pracharath Party [PPRP] to fill the gap. Deep down, no party wants to be in the opposition,” he said.
Mr Thanaporn brushed aside concerns that the casino-entertainment complex bill will trigger a flood of complaints about ethics, which can undermine government stability. He said the bill is sponsored by the government, and ethics complaints can be lodged anytime.
The Bhumjaithai Party has a tough choice to make and has more to lose than gain, he noted.
” Can the party make a fuss about the bill and yet stay in the coalition? Does it dare walk away? I don’t think so. And if it makes a U-turn to support the bill, it is doomed,” he said.
Mr Thanaporn said he has no doubt the Pheu Thai Party will push ahead with the casino-entertainment complex project, as it must have studied the risks and determined the benefits outweigh the risks.
The bill was approved by the cabinet on March 27, which is part of the government’s plan to drive the economy by reducing the dependency on seasonal tourism.
It is expected to bring in 119–283 billion baht a year and increase the number of foreign travellers to Thailand by 5–10 %.
The complexes will mostly comprise concert halls, indoor sports arenas, water parks and/or hotels, while casinos will only account for 10 % of the space.