Beware of the’ violet’ group
The country’s two largest parties are concerned about a potential threat from the third-ranked Bhumjaithai Party, which is based on the results of the June 26 Senate election and the June 30 Provincial Administrative Organization ( PAO ) chairman election in Pathum Thani.
Bhumjaithai, led by Anutin Charnvirakul, who is also the deputy prime minister and interior minister, has outperformed both Pheu Thai and the main opposition Move Forward Party ( MFP ) in the Senate election and possibly Pheu Thai in the PAO race, to stun observers.
The surveys proved to be a wake-up telephone for Pheu Thai and the MFP, which, until the end of last month, were thought to have the best odds of leading a coalition government after the next general election less than four years from now.
After a close examination of how both contests spanned out, it was determined that the two votes shattered this idea.
According to a cause, it would not be off the mark to state that the election to choose 200 legislators from among 20 specialist organizations had perplexed most watchers and politicians.
In the last and regional square of election in the Senate surveys, more than 120 winners were apparently linked to the “blue” group, a guide to Bhumjaithai. There were about 20 people who reportedly shared the MFP’s stance with Pheu Thai, or about 20 others who shared the same stance.
The remainder were described by some media outlets as” the people,” which is what the others are.
The source said that although senators are required by law to become independent of a social group or celebration, a dark area exists where they might have had a previous working partnership or had politicians as family friends or business partners. Some senator-elects may even be supporters of a group’s philosophy.
The Election Commission (EC ) has been flooded with complaints ranging from unqualified candidates not being able to register for the election, candidates signing up for the wrong professional organizations, to illegal lobbying of members within and across professional organizations, allegedly orchestrated by those affiliated with political parties.
The source said advocacy had taken position even before the EC formally declared the start of the Senate surveys. A motion head identifying the names of those who planned to run as candidates had facilitated the lobbying. This was done so that ample people would be able to get involved and cast their election. The supporters had then give their vote to these applicants during the international and inter-group voting at the area, provincial and national levels.
Despite the carefully planned schedule, the poll results were unsatisfactory for some parties, who were hoping to see like-minded applicants make the cut and then take seats in the upper room to “assist” them in their drive for the passing of significant pieces of legislation.
The EC was forced to postpone the release of the formal Senate poll results due to legal controversies, which had originally been anticipated for July 2.
The payment was on the receiving end of cooked complaints from past poll watchers, prolific petitioners and Senate applicants. Some of them argued that the Senate surveys may be invalid and that everything should go back to square one, while others argued that any senators-elect who had broken the election laws should be handled separately.
Regardless of how the surveys disaster turns out, the “blue” party may have gotten used to being a force to reckon with, according to the source.
The biggest shock, however, was that the blue group had managed to wield significant lobbying power appropriate under the noses of the big events.
The MFP is expected to have a difficult time if the blue party wins the Senate election, trying to pass some contentious charges, including one that would grant a blanket amnesty to criminals and prisoners accused of violating Section 112 of the Criminal Code or the der guess rules.
The main opposition party loses a lot of its potency without the full exploitation of social media to spread its message and win support, which may give credence to.
It is thought any Senate lobbying will hinge mainly on conventional patronage support, which relies heavily on person-to-person relationships rather than random, propagandistic effects achieved via social media communication, according to the source.
In contrast, the PAO chairman poll in Pathum Thani gave Pheu Thai a sigh despite the ruling party emerging as the losers barely a week after the Senate election.
Some observers thought Pheu Thai’s victory was disappointing because it was only able to defeat its closest rival, Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit Toopkrajang from the Khon Rak Pathum ( Love Pathum ) group, by less than 2, 000 votes.
” In political terms, winning by a hair’s breadth essentially amounts to a defeat”, one observer said of Charn Phuangphet, Pheu Thai’s candidate.
In addition to being suspended once he took over the position of PAO chairman, Mr. Charn was also indicted in a graft case prior to taking office.
According to opinion polls, the June 30 local election was in fact close. The observer said Mr Charn, with the resources and manpower made available to him by the ruling party, as well as endorsement from former premier Thaksin Shinawatra, should have been well ahead of Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit.
Prior to the last year’s general election, the MFP almost won the province over with a clean sweep. Pathum Thani was once a Pheu Thai stronghold.
However, it was reported that Bhumjaithai, which is eager to spread its wings in lower Central Plains constituencies, has reportedly established close ties with Pol Lt Gen Kamronwit.
Bhumjaithai’s strategy is to secure Pathum Thani and work its way up the Chao Phraya River to win seats in neighbouring Ayutthaya, which shares a border with Ang Thong, currently represented in parliament by Paradorn Prissanananthakul from Bhumjaithai.
Could it be that the time has come to an end?
Pol Capt Chalerm Ubumrung, a stalwart of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, appears to be coming to an end with his son Wan’s resignation from the party, according to observers.
A disgruntled Mr Wan tendered his resignation with the Election Commission (EC ) early this week after he was summonsed to explain himself to party executives and leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra on July 9 about his appearance at the Provincial Administrative Organisation ( PAO ) chairman election in Pathum Thani on June 30.
After the polls closed, the former Bangkok MP visited family friend and former MP Kamronwit Toopkrajang. Later, Pheu Thai’s candidate, Charn Phuangphet, informed Polo Lt Gen Kamronwit that he had lost the election.
” I ca n’t stay on now that the party executives are no longer happy with me”, Mr Wan was quoted as saying. He continued, saying that he was hoping that the party would expel his father, an MP from the Pheu Thai list, so Pol Capt Chalerm could defect.
Pol Capt Chalerm and the party may only have a few days left, according to some observers. This is not the first time the Ubumrung family has felt discontent with Pheu Thai.
Pol Capt Chalerm declared in November of last year that he had permanently turned his back on Thaksin Shinawatra, a figure regarded as a powerful force within the ruling party. He even asked Thaksin to formally kick him out of Pheu Thai if he believed he should be disowned.
Pol Capt Chalerm was reportedly angered after learning from a news report that Thaksin did not want Pol Capt Chalerm and Mr Wan to have cabinet portfolios because they were” troublesome”.
In what was thought to be an attempt to clear the air, Ms. Paetongtarn visited them a few weeks later, and it was widely speculated that the party leadership and the Ubumrung family had reconciled.
The Ubumrungs ‘ relationship with Pheu Thai is effectively over, according to Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute. There is no chance for the family and the party to reunite.
” If the head of the Ubumrung family ca n’t do what the head of the Thienthong family did, his future with the Pheu Thai Party looks bleak. The Ubumrungs ‘ time in the party appears to be coming to an end, according to Mr. Thanaporn.
The analyst was referring to veteran politician Sanoh Thienthong, who managed to reunite with Pheu Thai despite having a troubled relationship with Thaksin.
Mr Sanoh left Thai Rak Thai, which was founded by Thaksin, in 2005 and became a sworn enemy of the former premier. He addressed the crowd about Thaksin’s alleged corruption at the anti-Thaksin rally being organized by the now-defunct People’s Alliance for Democracy ( PAD ).
However, Mr. Sanoh’s political family made a second appearance in the 2011 general election and won the election under Pheu Thai’s banner.
The faction was also awarded a number of cabinet seats in the Yingluck Shinawatra administration.
In her effort to transform Pheu Thai, the analyst believes that Ms. Paetongtarn needs to take action when dealing with party veterans who no longer make their contributions.
These individuals must leave. Otherwise, younger politicians will not have the opportunity to rise through the ranks, preventing the party from evolving and effectively competing with the main opposition Move Forward Party.
If Pheu Thai does n’t try to reinvent itself, it might struggle to do so even with Bhumjaithai, the third-largest party, who is rumored to have become a formidable force, based on the results of the most recent Senate election, where more than half of the senators are said to be party supporters.
The coalition party has vehemently denied interfering with the Senate election process, which has been widely dissented from.
On the Ubumrungs ‘ political future, Mr Thanaporn doubts that the father and son will defect to Bhumjaithai considering the bitter history between Pol Capt Chalerm and Newin Chidchob, the de facto leader of the coalition partner.
He recalled the time when Mr. Newin was thrown out of the Muan Chon Party by Pol Capt Chalerm in the middle of a political upheaval in the 1990s.
Mr. Newin, the leader of the then-powerful Group of 16– primarily young, aspiring politicians, was linked to the Bangkok Bank of Commerce scandal. The Chart Thai Party led by the late Banharn Silpa-archa did not want to field him, while Muan Chon declined to take him.
Before joining Thai Rak Thai, Mr. Newin joined the Solidarity Party.
” Pol Capt Chalerm supporters should ask Mr. Newin if he has let go of the past,” remarked Mr. Thanaporn.