What’s a journalist to do when the facts don’t matter? – Asia Times

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The majority of people believe that true events, such as debates, discussions, and reporting, matter. When facts are gathered, verified and distributed, informed decision-making can resume in such critical exercises as election.

But what happens when essential, verified details are published and broadcast frequently, but the resulting effect proves underwhelming – or perhaps meaningless? If important information fails to be communicated to the intended readers?

After November 5, 2024, American media will have a problem similar to this.

Even the most honest and accurate reporting can have a limited impact, according to my experience and research as a previous journalist and historian of media effects history. Very often, critics and scholars assume that providing what they perceive to be the “right” knowledge, while properly policing “misinformation”, you address the technical challenges in political governance.

But fact is not that easy. There are numerous historical instances of British news consumers receiving verified information about provocative figures or events, but the journalistic excellence of the article has little to no impact.

A USA Today edition from 2019 with a headline, 'Cohen: Trump 'was telling me to lie''
Trump’s behavior over the years received a lot of coverage in the media. Photo: Robert Alexander / Getty Images via The Talk

Terrible – and unfounded – problems

In the run-up to the war in Iraq in 2003, for example, one news network distinguished itself with moral, dubious investigating on the fact of whether Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction, as the Bush administration asserted.

There is little evidence that the writers at Knight-Ridder convinced their leaders, their audiences, or regional politicians that their ultimately vindicated frame of the issues was more accurate than the dramatic and ultimately essentially discredited stories in The New York Times despite their careful and accurate method. In fact, the details were ignored, and misinformation devastatingly informed the population.

According to Donald Trump’s victory on November 5, 2024, the issue of literary quality and its effect or influence on current events has once more arisen.

Many academics and journalists argued that American journalism failed to adequately inform the public about Trump’s deceit and his immediate and immediate threat to democracy and constitutionalism.

Some bitterly complained that” the identity advertising” were involved in the “relentless quantization” of Trump’s “extremism, crazy and nastiness”. Others blamed Trump’s defeat on journalism’s social loss” to make a compelling case for democracy” when confronted by Trump’s “extreme, autocratic agenda”.

” Horse-race coverage is back in full force”, wrote The Intercept’s James Risen in August,” and the threat Trump poses to democracy is now an afterthought”.

The New York Times published a thorough list of Trump’s proposed policies two months before Risen wrote that, which clearly outlined how they swore to be in violation of fundamental democratic and constitutional norms.

Even former Times journalist Margaret Sullivan credited the newspaper with producing such impressively detailed and specific reportage.

However, Sullivan also argued that” too frequently, the coverage of Trump has been an embarrassing failure – sanewashing his lunacy, falsely equating him to his traditional rivals, or treating him as some sort of amusing sideshow.”

‘ Widely reported’ and broadcast

Throughout the fall of 2024, you can easily find journalistic examples of truthful and fact-based reporting about Trump.

In every publication, including USA Today, which warned readers about Trump’s unconstitutional “deployment of US troops to combat” the enemy within,” to ABC News World News Tonight, which ran advertisements for various authoritarian and unconstitutional aspects of Trump’s plans if elected, including his declaration that he would be a “dictator on day one” if elected, there are numerous articles and broadcast stories.

And during his first term in office, Trump’s behavior – and his illegality – was covered extensively. He allegedly abused the country’s war dead in Europe, he allegedly abused his wife with an adult film actress, he cheated on his wife with an adult film actress, he allegedly abused the president’s family in Europe, he insulted the country’s military, and he is accused of breaking the law by hiding top secret federal documents in his Florida home, among other unlawful acts.

A New York Times edition with the headline 'Trump Engaged in Suspect Tax Schemes as He Reaped Riches From His Father.'
According to a New York Times investigation from October 2018,” President Trump engaged in dubious tax schemes during the 1990s, including instances of outright fraud.” Photo: Robert Alexander / Getty Images / The Conversation

Trump was previously recorded on a recording talking about grabbing women’s genitalia, and he was also found guilty of sexual abuse by a jury.

All of this information about the president-elect was widely reported and broadcast by reputable, established news outlets in the US. His lawyer and a senior financial official at his company were found guilty and serving time in prison, and additional serial reporting has continued throughout the string of court cases that have taken place over the past two years as a result of this ethical and professional reporting. I’d assume that most Americans are aware that Trump has been sentenced to prison.

The news media did a good job.

Yet despite such constant and widespread coverage, it failed to dent Trump’s popularity with the American people. For some critics, this was seen as clear evidence of journalistic failure, for surely if the citizens realized” the truth” about Trump, his career would be over.

Yet that’s not how the news process works.

You can be certain that millions of Americans who are aware that Trump poses a threat to democracy and constitutional authority still voted for him now that he received more than 70 million votes on November 5, 2024.

Knowing that he has sexually assaulted women, it’s possible that women who have been sexually assaulted voted for him. Business owners who pay their taxes and follow legal and regulatory guidelines are aware that Trump has avoided both obligations and continued to support him. Those who are aware of what Trump has said about their deceased predecessors and heroes like John McCain continue to support him.

Millions of well-informed, moral, ethical and law-abiding Americans who know all about Trump’s behaviors, malfeasance and illegalities, and his threat to democracy and constitutionality, voted for him.

Their voting behavior somehow disregarded their knowledge despite reading and absorbing factual accounts and accurate reporting about Trump. That’s not the fault of the news media. They did their job.

Perhaps Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs best explains why so many newsreaders who learned about Trump’s dishonesty chose him. Here’s how that hierarchy works: Long before we can satisfy our desire to live morally, ethically and with spiritual meaning, Maslow reasoned that physiological needs – e. g., food and shelter, safety and security, employment and health – must be met.

So just as the Covid-19 pandemic threatened health and job security, the rising price of food, medicine and housing destabilized people’s sense of security. Families who ca n’t afford to purchase an expensive ramshackle house or an old used car would consider seriously considering Trump’s behavior or morality or the way he appeared to have threatened democratic governance and the constitutional order almost four years ago.

For most Americans, Washington, DC, is distant from their local grocery store, and although inflation has diminished, many Americans seem to have voted on the memory of the less expensive world that existed during Trump’s presidency.

Rein in expectations

Humility is perhaps the most valuable lesson a journalist can learn.

If viewers do n’t get the news as they want to, and act accordingly, being more realistic and modest about the ultimate impact of any factual and verified report, no matter how sensational or significant it may be to national security.

You can lead a horse to water, but you ca n’t make it drink. The media ca n’t guarantee a politician’s election by repeatedly publishing or broadcasting numerous disqualifying truths about them. No matter what happens next, journalists need to understand how releasing accurate and useful information into the world can provide its own rewarding service.

Ultimately, the First Amendment protects the right of journalists to report, publish and broadcast, but it ca n’t force citizens to read, listen, absorb or learn. In that sense, journalism did n’t fail us – we failed journalism.

Michael J Socolow is professor of communication and journalism, University of Maine

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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India giving RCEP free trade pact a needful second look – Asia Times

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” India should be a part of RCEP and CPTPP”, according to B V R Subrahmanyam, CEO of the National Institution for Transforming India ( NITI ) Aayog, the Indian government’s top public policy think tank and nodal agency for catalyzing economic development.

Speaking recently to the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India ( Assocham ), Subrahmanyam said inclusion in the Asia-centric trade blocs” …will be best for India’s micro, small &amp, medium enterprises sector…40 % of India’s exports are from MSMEs. Great corporates are not great producers”.

The NITI Aayog CEO even claimed that higher taxes prevented India from fully exploiting the expanding supply chain growth away from China. ” I do n’t think we have captured the’ China plus one ‘ opportunity as much as we could have”, he added.

The American government participated in the negotiations that ultimately led to the 15-member Asia-Pacific free trade agreement, which has the highest GDP in the world. But, it decided against joining on the idea it would set American company and agriculture at a net-net downside.

However, as the world business environment enters a precarious new time, perceptions appear to be shifting in New Delhi. &nbsp,

India’s first role in forming RCEP, which took power in January 2022, gives the rest to widely held notions the union is, at its base, a China-led program aimed at rewriting the rules of international business to Beijing’s advantage.

In actuality, RCEP originated in August 2011 at the ASEAN 3 ( China, Japan, South Korea ) conference, which adopted a joint Japanese-Chinese proposal known as the” Initiative on Speeding up the Establishment of an East Asia Free Trade Area ( EAFTA ) and Comprehensive Economic Partnership in East Asia ( CEPEA )”.

All of the Asia-Pacific governments were involved in the lengthy procedure of RCEP’s growth, and all, barring India, signed it on November 15, 2020. The RCEP includes Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam

RCEP will remove taxes on about 90 % of traded commodities within 20 years and regulate many customs, purchase, intellectual property and e-commerce rules. Covering almost 30 % of the world economy, it is also the first trade agreement linking Japan, China and South Korea.

The benefits of RCEP were summarized by the New Zealand authorities because:

  • Greater certainty and lower difficulty are enhanced by a second set of trade and investment regulations that apply to the entire RCEP place.
  • the possibility for our manufacturers to enter local RCEP-wide value chains.
  • More business exposure opportunities, specifically for companies and investment into China and some ASEAN member state.
  • Less red audio for manufacturers, and more refined trade, and
  • New guidelines on federal procurement, competition policy and electronic business, which will help New Zealand producers take advantage of increased business possibilities.

Operate could do the same for India.

The CPTPP ( Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ) is a separate free trade agreement comprised of 11 countries around the Pacific Ocean, including Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

The US was instrumental in developing the Trans-Pacific Partnership ( TPP ) under President Barack Obama but abandoned under Donald Trump in January 2017; it became effective at the end of December 2018.

The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity ( IPEF ) promoted by the US government as an alternative to the CPTPP is long on feel-good jargon but short on measures to lower tariffs and improve US market access for its 13 other participants: Australia, Brunei, Fiji, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. In May of this year, IPEF was launched.

In the words of the Office of the United States Trade Representative ( USTR ),” This framework will advance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness for our economies. Through this program, the IPEF partners aim to lead to assistance, security, happiness, development and peace within the region”.

According to the USTR, this will be accomplished through” …negotiations on the following pillars: ( 1 ) Trade, ( 2 ) Supply Chains, ( 3 ) Clean Energy, Decarbonization, and Infrastructure, and ( 4 ) Tax and Anti-Corruption. Because of its flexibility, IPEF partners are not required to participate in all four pillars. Neither India nor China participated.

Then, in November 2023, Biden abandoned the IPEF trade pillar. And as a result, Trump, the new president, intends to raise tariffs across the board as well.

Robert Lighthizer, a former US trade representative who served under the first Trump administration and is now expected to serve under the second, outlined the bipartisan US embrace of protectionism in an essay that the Financial Times published on November 1:

” In the last three decades, millions of jobs have been lost, many of which are highly paid in the manufacturing sector. We have seen median wages stagnate…. Communities across America have been destroyed … We have run up giant&nbsp, trade deficits every year for decades. We are losing the future innovation that comes with manufacturing because of this, which sends trillions of dollars of our wealth overseas.

After distinguishing nations that “adopt industrial policies that are designed to increase their standard of living from those that adhere to free trade,” Lighthizer comes to the conclusion that” countries that consistently run large surpluses are the protectionists in the global economy.” Others, like the US, that run perennial huge trade deficits are the victims”.

Never mind that outsourcing to low-cost foreign suppliers has long been a key factor in the rise in economic growth and the rise in living standards in Germany, Japan, South Korea, China, and other nations.

Additionally, the US itself prospered for the majority of its history and established its own industrial base behind a wall of tariffs as high as 40 %. And unlike quotas and sanctions, tariffs are a market-based instrument that simply change price incentives. In any case, Trump has decided to change, and other nations must follow suit.

India has the world’s fifth-largest national economy in US dollar terms, ranking between Japan and the UK, but the third-largest in purchasing power parity terms, behind only China and the US. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts a 6.9 % increase in GDP for all of them this year, and it is outgrowing them all.

If participating in regional trade agreements gave its own companies comparable access to new markets, India might eventually replace it as a source of demand with more than four times the population of the US.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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Laser wars: US-China in drone-killing, directed-energy arms race – Asia Times

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Both superpowers are competing to outsmart helicopter swarms, which are poised to transform the world of war, in a high-stakes battle between the US and China.

This quarter, The War Zone reported that China’s directed-energy counter-drone initiatives are advancing, with many high-power micro systems showcased at the Zhuhai Airshow 2024.

Among the shows were three large smart ground-based high-power microwave-directed power weapons, designed mainly to destroy drones.

The War Zone report mentions these systems, developed by China South Industries Group Corporation ( CSGC ) and Norinco, include a microwave system mounted on an 8×8 light armored vehicle and another on a Shacman SX2400/2500-series 8×8 truck. It points out that these systems have radars and rectangular arrays for monitoring and tracking of targets.

The Zhuhai Airshow occurrence underscored the rising global demand for counter-drone features, driven by the increasing use of the arms in military problems, somewhat in Ukraine.

Although the capabilities of these new systems are still unsure, according to The War Zone report, their creation and use reflect China’s proper strategy to combat flying threats.

The US Army’s 170 effective drone kills were documented in a report from The War Zone this month, underscoring how crucial it is to combat uncrewed underwater threats.

According to the US’s report on the War Zone, Coyote interceptors have been stationed at 36 unspecified locations outside of the country, including those that fall under US Central Command ( CENTCOM), US Africa Command ( AFRICOM), and US European Command ( EUCOM).

The report says that the Coyote Block 2, produced by US defense contractor Raytheon, uses a high-explosive warhead and is part of the Low, Slow, Unmanned Aircraft Integrated Defeat System ( LIDS ), which includes mobile and fixed-site components.

By 2029, the US Army intends to increase its army with up to 6,700 fresh Coyote ships and more launchers and radars.

According to The War Zone, Block 3 variants with non-kinetic loads are being developed by the US Army, along with other anti-drone systems, including directed energy arms and digital warfare systems.

The inclusion of LIDS into wider air and missile defense networks demonstrates this folded approach’s focus on evolving device threats.

Directed-energy weapons ( DEW ) such as high-power microwaves ( HPM) and small drone interceptors present distinct advantages and challenges in countering drone swarms.

DEWs like HPMs have the ability to launch various drones at once with the help of their fast-paced, precise targeting and potentially limitless ammunition. They can deal with threats that are beyond the scope of normal projectiles and have minimal collateral damage.

But, they face important limitations in terms of energy requirements and environmental conditions. Continual operation demands considerable energy supplies, which can be impossible in rural areas or high-intensity engagements.

Small drone ships bring versatility and adaptability, especially in cluttered or industrial settings. They can manoeuvre to close-range drones, which allows for defense maneuvering in tight, complex environments. They can also be quickly deployed and operate independently, making them flexible and adaptable.

However, their strength is limited by power life, while engaging big, fast-moving swarms you immediately fuel interceptor stocks.

In high-intensity cases, ships may struggle to keep pace with big, organized flocks, particularly against increasingly complex attack drones, positioning DEWs like HPMs as possibly more effective against high-volume attacks.

The possible decisive effect of drone swarms over Taiwan Strait could give the US and China substantial motivation to develop anti-drone technologies. In a Business Insider post from October 2024, Tom Porter discusses the crucial role aircraft crowds would perform in a fight like the growing risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Porter says that China, a leading aircraft manufacturer, could deploy large fleets of autonomous underwater and marine drones to destroy Taiwan’s defenses and manual precision missile strikes.

He points out that the US and Taiwan, now lagging in aircraft features, are working to boost their threats through activities like the US’s” Hellscape” program, which aims to fill the Taiwan Strait with robotic submarines, surface ships and aerial drones.

To counter China’s numerical and technological drone superiority, Porter calls on Taiwan and the US to improve their production and air defense systems. He emphasizes the need for Taiwan and the US to develop autonomous drones and electronic warfare capabilities to combat the threat from Chinese drones.

Experts are divided on whether drones have a strategic impact on warfare despite the fact that the Ukraine war has become a hallmark of its ongoing use of small, disposable drones. This has significant implications for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

On the one hand, Dominika Kunertova says in a September 2024 Center for Security Studies report that large and small drones have shown remarkable adaptability in tactical applications, making high-intensity, cost-effective aerial support widely accessible.

Kunertova details how inexpensive, commercially available drones have empowered Ukrainian forces by enhancing real-time battlefield awareness and enabling innovative, low-cost attack strategies.

She points out how small drones, such as quadcopters and loitering munitions, have proven valuable for reconnaissance and precision strikes, often operating as disposable assets.

She mentions the development of AI-enabled autonomous drones as a step toward full-spectrum drone warfare and argues that integrating these systems into military strategies would require ethical, operational, and policy issues.

According to Kunertova, this evolution signals a shift toward algorithmic warfare, with Ukraine serving as a testing ground for future drone-based conflict dynamics​.

On the other hand, Stacie Pettyjohn argues in a February 2024 Center for a New American Security ( CNAS ) report that drones in the Ukraine war represent an “evolution” rather than a “revolution” in warfare.

According to Pettyjohn, drones have not yet brought about the transformative change that characterizes a military revolution, despite having altered the battlefield and introducing new tactical capabilities and capabilities. She argues that the majority of drones used in Ukraine were hand-piloted, underpowered, and lacked significant networking capabilities, limiting their impact to local effects.

She mentions that the Russian and Ukrainian forces are constantly innovating and adapting, quickly emulating each other’s technological advancements, which severely limits either side’s ability to take home a significant advantage.

Additionally, she claims that due to the widespread use of commercial and dual-use technologies, new drone developments have quickly become available to both sides.

Pettyjohn points out that drones in Ukraine are primarily used as intelligence platforms and artillery spotters, supplementing conventional artillery but lacking in their ability to replace mass artillery fire.

She claims that drones may change military strategies and organizations as they become more autonomous and integrated with other weapons. She contends that their contribution to the military has n’t yet been a radical change in comparison to the current ones.

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TSMC’s 7nm chip ban targets China’s AI chipmakers – Asia Times

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The largest chip contract manufacturer in the world, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co ( TSMC), is rumored to stop providing semiconductors made of 7 nanometers or lower to Chinese companies that produce graphics processing units ( GPUs ).

The decision, successful from November 11 in line with US punishment, is aimed at blocking China’s Huawei Technologies from being able to spot purchases with TSMC via next events, island IT site Jiwei.com reported on November 8.

But, TSMC will still be able to offer Chinese companies that produce cards for use in smartphones and cars. &nbsp, &nbsp,

TSMC said it has no opinion on the information, saying only it is law-abiding and completely complies with all applicable laws and regulations, including appropriate trade control regulations.

Foreign fabless chip designers that use TSMC’s production companies to create AI/GPU chips&nbsp, include Alibaba’s T-Head, Baidu’s Kunlunxin, Iluvatar, Enflame, MetaX, Black Sesame International, Jaguar Micro, Nio, Xiaopeng and Horizon Robotics, according to TMTPost.com, a Taiwanese IT news site.

Three major Chinese AI chip makers, including Cambrian Technologies, Biden Intelligent Technology and Moore Threads Technology, had used TSMC’s foundry services until they were added to the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security’s ( BIS )” Entity List” in 2023.

But, it’s not clear whether these three Chinese companies have continued to order from TSMC through third parties in an effort to avoid the punishment. &nbsp, On November 8, the Shanghai-listed shares of Cambrian fell 9.5 % while the Shenzhen-listed shares of Horizon dropped 2.7 % after Jiwei.com published its report.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp ( SMIC ), Dawning Information Industry Co ( Sugon ), and Naura Technology Group, three Chinese chipmakers, experienced rapid increases in shares at the same time. &nbsp,

In the third quarter, revenue from making 3nm, 5nm and 7nm chips accounted for 20 %, 32 % and 17 % of TSMC’s total revenue, respectively. In contrast to 12 % for the entire year of 2023, TSMC’s revenue from sales to China came in at about 11 % in the third quarter of this year. &nbsp,

Wafer destroyed

Jiwei.com’s statement came after TechInsights, a Canada-based data platform for the device business, said in a statement on October 9 that it found the Ascend 910B device on a Huawei Atlas 300T A2 AI training cards.

Midway through October, TSMC reported the incident to the US Commerce Department and reported the package of chips to Chinese fabless microprocessor manufacturer Xiamen Sophgo, a subsidiary of Bitmain, as a result. Huawei has not had a business partnership with Sophie or Bitmain. &nbsp,

It’s questionable whether the Chinese chipmakers involved in this tragedy may place more purchases with TSMC, despite Jiwei.com’s announcement on November 8 that all of the wafers involved have been destroyed. &nbsp,

Foreign chip designers now need to wait for the thorough delivery regulations, which are being discussed by TSMC and the US Commerce Department, before applying for certificates if they want to “tape out” or make their AI chips and GPUs using TSMC’s facilities, even though these items do not break US export regulations. ” Taping out” is a procedure that makes sample chips before mass production.

” I think it’s a good thing that TSMC will stop making 7nm and more advanced chips for Chinese customers”, Xiang Ligang, an IT expert with the Research and Development International, a think tank under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, says in a Weibo post.

Chinese companies are developing their GPUs and chip designs only in its early stages. It’s natural that they prefer to work with TSMC”, Xiang says. Their orders have been rejected by TSMC, which will then be taken over by Chinese chip foundries.

” Xiang Ligang seems to have underestimated the impact of TSMC’s latest decision”, a Guangdong-based columnist using the pseudonym” Xinyifei” says in an article. ” Given that the yield of China’s 7nm chip-making processes remains unknown, it is impossible that Chinese foundries can satisfy the demand of all local chip designers” .&nbsp,

According to the author, TSMC currently has the best 7nm and lower chips in the market, while Samsung in South Korea has a much lower yield. He claims that SMIC in China has limited production capacity and low yields, despite the country’s SMIC’s claim. &nbsp,

” In the short run, many Chinese fabless chip makers that make 7nm AI chips will have to shut down or downsize”, he opines.

More curbs ahead

Some analysts predicted that as soon as Donald Trump, widely viewed in the Chinese media as a” china hawk,” is elected, the Biden administration would tighten its and its allies ‘ chip export regulations.

Meanwhile, the coming debut of Huawei’s Mate70 smartphone may prompt the US Commerce Department to strengthen its chip export rules. Huawei may release the Mate70 on November 18 or 20, according to Chinese media.

They said the flagship product will use HiSilicon’s 7nm Kirin 9100 chip, which is said to match the performance level of Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 and 8 Gen 1 for computing processing unit ( CPU) and GPU, respectively.

But Huaweicentral.com said on November 9 that Huawei may use the previously launched Kirin 9010 chip in the Mate 70 as it has failed to secure enough Kirin 9100 chips.

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo was surprised and dejected by the Huawei Mate60 smartphone’s launch during her China trip in August 2023. &nbsp, TechInsights later found that the Kirin 9000s chip inside the Mate60 was made by SMIC with its 7nm ( N 2 ) process. &nbsp,

Read more: China boxed out of high-NA lithography race to 1nm chips

Read more: China’s Sophgo, Bitmain deny ties with Huawei’s supply chain

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Blood on the tracks of India’s railways – Asia Times

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Your level of devotion to it determines the success of a structure.

Audrely&nbsp, Moralez

No matter how advanced or well-organized a system may be, the emphasis on personal relationship is crucial to its usefulness.

India has the fourth-largest rail network in the world, following the United States, Russia and China. It serves around 23 million people on 14, 000 trains everyday. However, Indian Railways ‘ record is severely subpar in terms of customer services and road safety in comparison to its international competitors.

Over 100, 000 train-related deaths occurred in India between 2017 and 2021, according to a 2022 review published by the National Crime Records Bureau. In addition to educate collisions, this figure includes instances of passengers being struck by speeding trains and fell from vehicles. &nbsp,

Most lately, on October 27, at least 10 people were injured, with two in critical condition, following a panic at Mumbai’s active Bandra Terminal triggered by a wave of travellers returning to their communities for the future Diwali and Chhath events. The event was captured on video, which became popular on social media. &nbsp,

Major Indian facilities have experienced a sizable passenger increase. During breaks, people who have migrated to major cities like Delhi, Mumbai and Bangalore for several reasons—mainly employment—head house by train. &nbsp,

A report 7, 345 fresh special railways are operating during the holiday season, according to Union Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw. But, the reality on the ground reveals that procedures are limited.

People are being forced to sit in toilet due to overcrowding. Similar circumstances were observed last year and in previous years, but this problem is not fresh. It is prevalent across some trains.

Despite the Narendra Modi government’s increased railroad investment, the majority of the funding has been focused on developing new trains ( like the Vande Bharat and Amrit Bharat ), improving speed and comfort, with little particular attention being paid to maintaining or improving the safety of thousands of older trains.

Overworked and accident-prone

The Ministry of Railways reports that in the 2023-24 fiscal year, there were 313 customer deaths and four railway worker fatalities in&nbsp, 40 station accidents, the highest quantity in a century.

In 2024, there have already been 12 railroad injuries. The&nbsp, 2022 annual report by India’s top inspection body, CAG, cites critical evaluation shortfalls, delayed investigation reports, misuse of dedicated railway funds, declining track renewal funding and unsatisfactory staffing in safety operations as essential factors behind these accidents.

According to the bridge president’s claims in Parliament, there are 312, 000 non-gazette American Railways posts vacant across the country. More than 27, 763 coaches ( 62 % ) lack fire extinguishers, violating regulations. This&nbsp, indicates weak control, resulting in the loss of lives and livelihoods.

Also, ticket prices and accessibility raise additional concerns. Under the Modi government, the average fare per train passenger per kilometer has surged by 107 % ( from 0.32 rupees in 2013-14 to 0.66 in 2021-22 ).

In contrast, during the Manmohan Singh government, the average fare increased only 33 % ( from 0.24 in 2003-04 to 0.32 in 2013-14 ). Despite this suffer boost, implying higher earnings and funds to invest, support value has declined, never improved, over time.

India’s carriages are also bywords for overcrowding, poor health and difficulties. Individuals frequently share videos that show that they cannot use their reserved seats despite having reserved seats.

Is there something more at play than just increased need and the railroad’s inability to accurately determine customer power, or does it raise a bigger issue?

Scam in illusion

Railway tickets can be purchased in India at railway stations or online through the official website (e-ticketing ). Reservation offices are located at every main railroad depot.

Tickets are typically categorized as Unreserved or Reserved, with the latter divided into three types: Confirmed, RAC ( Reservation Against Cancellation ), and General Waitlist ( GNWL ).

A confirmed ticket guarantees a reserved seat, RAC indicates that you will be sharing a berth, and GNWL indicates that you do n’t have a confirmed seat but may be given one in the event of a cancellation.

The Modi government’s policy of changing the cancellation policy in 2020 will encourage paperless ticketing and stop agencies and touts from selling on the black market. Under the new rules, cancellation charges for unreserved, RAC, and waitlisted tickets are 30 rupees for unreserved ( second class ) and 60 rupees for second class ( reserved ), plus goods &amp, service tax ( GST ), if canceled more than 30 minutes before the train’s scheduled departure. If canceled within 30 days of departure, no payment is granted.

This means that Indian Railways is making money off of passengers for the cancellation of a berth that was n’t even scheduled. What many consider to be an unfair exercise, if not a complete fraud, is also further enhanced by the inclusion of GST.

Indian Railways made an astonishing$ 1, 229.85 crore ( approximately$ 153.7 million ) from customers who purchased tickets from the waiting list but ultimately chose not to travel, according to recent Right to Information filings. This averages out to over ₹400 crore ($ 50 million ) per year.

This suggests that Indian Railways might purposefully withdraw cancellation fees from overall fares for passengers by keeping more RAC and waiting names. For example, during Halloween year last month, from November 5 to 17, the Railways recorded 9.618 million solution delays, including confirmed, RAC, and waitlisted cards.

4.78 million delays, or 49 %, came from enrolled people, according to the Center for Railway Information System, across all limits. In addition, Indian Railways made 10 crores ($ 1.18 million ) from ticket cancellations that had a final waiting list status during that week.

As 99 % of road tourists come from poor and middle-income background, the thousands generated from waiting seat cancellations gouge the world’s most vulnerable. This withdrawal cost places a burden on the average person, especially bad migrant workers who rely on trains to get around town to support their families.

This essentially undermines the Modi government’s ability to make road travel a safe and convenient method of public transport.

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New Cold War driving hot new nuclear arms race – Asia Times

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As the high-stakes activity of punishment and supremacy enters a risky New Cold War phase, the world’s nuclear giant are testing new long-range missiles with their muscles. &nbsp,

In recent international intercontinental ballistic missile ( ICBM ) launches and strategic exercises, the US, Russia, and China showcased their nuclear capabilities, which show how each country is working to modernize and strengthen its capabilities in the face of rising international tensions.

On November 5, the US Air Force launched a Minuteman III ICBM from Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, to examine multi-warhead features and nuclear deterrent stability. The weapon travelled 6,700 kilometers to the Reagan Test Site, and it is anticipated that the LGM-35A Sentinel will be able to move from here.

The US check follows Russia’s large-scale nuclear drilling on October 29, overseen by President Vladimir Putin, who framed the exercise—featuring Yars ICBMs, radioactive boats and Tu-95 bombers—as a model of retaliatory attacks in response to American engagement in Ukraine. Putin stressed maintaining a available, present nuclear power.

Russia’s ICBM test was preceded by China’s People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) Rocket Force test on September 25, which launched an ICBM into the Pacific in a rare public demonstration. China’s exam was seen as a concept amid US missile defence improvements, showcasing China’s growing nuclear arsenal.

A fresh arms race is emerging as radioactive nations demonstrate their military prowess and revise their strategic opportunities. In a rapidly altering worldwide security landscape, they compete to exhibit their strength and hinder potential risks.

In response to China’s rapid nuclear proliferation, according to Asia Times ‘ article from March 2024, the US might consider replacing its missiles with several independently targetable reentry vehicles ( MIRVs ) in order to potentially violate the New START arms control agreement with Russia.

US Strategic Command (STRATCOM) has highlighted the need to examine MIRV implementation to counter China’s expanding atomic army, which is projected to reach 1, 000 warheads by 2030.

The LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBMs, already equipped with a second bomb, have the capability for MIRV implementation. Potential LGM-35A Sentinel ICBMs may be configured also.

In a March 2024 content for the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Hans Kristensen and various authors mention that Russia is about to complete a decades-long effort to replace its Soviet-era atomic systems with current ones.

This effort is motivated by a desire to keep US membership level, make up for weaker regular forces, and fend off rumors of US missile defense threats.

According to Kristensen and others, Russia’s development includes the implementation of advanced ICBMs like the RS-28 Sarmat, which has a wider range and greater load capacity.

They claim that Russian authorities assert that these new systems improve national security and deterrence abilities despite losses, including stalled testing and difficulties.

They point out that Russia’s decision to withdraw from the New START accordya has made it harder to confirm its nuclear arsenal’s precise position.

Russia’s nuclear arsenal development, coupled with explicit nuclear risks amid the Ukraine conflict, has heightened international concerns about Russia’s long-term corporate objectives and the potential for an arms race.

In an article for the Bulletin of Atomic Experts in October 2024, Hui Zhang points out that China’s September ICBM check demonstrates its corporate motivations to improve its nuclear deterrent capabilities.

Zhang says that the check, involving a DF-31AG missile launched from Hainan Island, marks China’s second full-trajectory ICBM check into foreign waterways since 1980.

He mentions that this action, which is being promoted as part of regular monthly training, aims to demonstrate China’s administrative and credible nuclear force in the face of recent internal struggles and rumors from outside.

In terms of capacity, he says the DF-31AG, a road-mobile weapon with a range of up to 12, 000 meters, enhances China’s ability to reach target in the western US, reinforcing its punishment tone.

He points out that China’s military capabilities are now more transparent and confident in the public launch of launch pictures.

Zhang says the test sends a clear message to the US, highlighting China’s readiness to combat any radioactive threats, particularly in the wake of possible conflicts in Taiwan.

He points out that President Xi Jinping’s evolving nuclear strategy, which emphasizes maintaining a strong second-strike capability and deterring US atomic use, highlights China’s evolving atomic strategy.

A new age of multi-front nuclear deterrent is redefining world power relationships as nuclear arsenals are expanding and relationships are tightening.

In a June 2021 content, Xi Luo examines the US, Russia, and China’s growing nuclear relationships, which points to a transition from a depressive to a triadic nuclear power system.

Luo claims that China has emerged as a major nuclear person despite having a much smaller army as the US and Russia promote nuclear modernization and strengthen their armaments with superior weapons like low-yield weapons and hypersonic missiles.

He points out these advancements coincide with the abandonment of several arms control treaties, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces ( INF ) Treaty, which previously helped curb missile proliferation.

Luo mentions China’s rise challenges the US-Russia nuclear balance, making for a complex trilateral relationship. China has declined to participate in arms control negotiations despite the US’s pressure to do so because of its relatively small nuclear stockpile and preference for multilateral disarmament talks with the five permanent UN Security Council members.

In a February 2024 article for Joint Force Quarterly, Kaye Jansen points out that the US needs to modernize its strategic deterrence frameworks in response to the nuclear threat posed by China, Russia, and other potential nuclear-armed adversaries, underscoring the necessity of moving away from earlier Cold War-era nuclear deterrence frameworks.

According to Jansen, the US is facing unprecedented difficulties in maintaining effective deterrence as these quasi-peer adversaries and their partners develop their nuclear weapons and intensify cooperation.

She claims that the US nuclear arsenal and command infrastructure are being completely overhauled by the US Departments of Defense ( DOD ) and Energy ( DOE).

She points out, however, that intellectual revitalization is equally important because decades of focusing on militarily inferior adversaries have undermined the strategic thinking required to effectively deter today’s nuclear-armed rivals.

Jansen points out that the interconnected and multifaceted nature of potential conflicts requires new deterrence strategies because of the complexity of contemporary threats.

She advocates a comprehensive strategy that incorporates all major powers, stressing the importance of understanding adversaries ‘ strategic cultures to manage escalation and keep credible deterrence in the midst of fierce power competition.

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Ethnic slurs, Bo Yang, The Ugly Chinaman and national character – Asia Times

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Here’s to the Chinaman, intelligent and ancient
Here’s to the Eskimo, valiant and warm
Here’s to the Jew in the sacred area
Here’s to the Arab in his wagon
Here’s to the American, strong and proud

Todd rundgren

What the heck is a” Pajeet”? Before recognizing that the word was an racial slur directed at Indians, Han Feizi may have read it a few days on Twitter. When you’re not more on the cutting edge of racial slurs, you’re able to tell when you’re getting older. The term “global politics” is most likely to have been tossed about by creepy crawly accounts with ethnic flame wars, according to Denizens of Twitter ( now X ).

Some Indians have been caught off-guard by the fresh condescending. Indians have a history of being the target of small-ball prejudice, much like Apu and Mujibur in David Letterman and Sirajul on David Letterman.

The new epithet is conceitedly directed at Hindus despite the fact that many Indians have suffered from post-9/11 anti-Muslim credit damage. Somewhat suddenly, harmful anti-brown discrimination has unexpectedly become&nbsp, all the rage on social media.

Only yesterday, ethnic Indians basked in the global sun while:

  • serving as British prime minister, first minister of Scotland and taoiseach ( prime minister ) of Ireland,
  • running for US leader, and
  • gracing the CEO couches of major global firms ( Google, Microsoft, IBM, Pepsi among some ).

And now we’re dealing with a” Pajeet” situation. We can drill down and discover fast causes, such as the recent rise in Indian immigrants to the Anglo-Western earth, the China-India boundary issue, and millions of newly online Indians who engage in raucous trolling on social media.

On some rates, this insult means Indians have arrived. Indians ‘ responses to this innovative prejudice range from being horrified by the sudden vitriol to feeling sorry for the suffering Indians must endure, before frightened diving headlong into a Psychological sludge of self-loathing, telling everyone who will listen that Indians deserve all the hatred and more. &nbsp, &nbsp,

This part will not concentrate on Indians and their Pajeet position, about which Han Feizi has much experience. It will be about the” Chinaman” condition, which has dogged the Chinese for 150 years.

Pajeets may consider themselves lucky because, according to internet origins, the slur first appeared in the dark of 4Chan and then spread like wildfire through Twitter’s cesspool. It is less than a decade old.

As a slur, a” Pajeet” and a” Chinaman” are pretty much the same creature – a quasi-human living in squalor, benighted by despotism, unscrupulous in character, out of step with the modern world and ineffectual in all endeavors. Despite these shortcomings, both Pajeets and Chinamen are prone to foolish confidence and boastfulness, facile in their aspirations and self-delusion.

The Ugly Chinaman and the Crisis in Chinese Culture, a self-flagellating series of articles about the depressing state of Taiwanese people, was Bo Yang’s most well-known reserve in 1992. Bo Yang’s analysis of Chinese tradition is less lurid screed than it does a revered contemporary writer’s work that has themes akin to those of Lu Xun.

Contrary to what happened with Lu Xun, who simply blared around the bush, the idea was to surprise the Chinese consciousness. Bo Yang’s contemporaneous responses to him were either a vitriolic defensiveness ( which of course confirmed his point ) or a eureka recognition that he was completely correct ( and frequently both at the same time, which further confirmed his even more correct ). &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

” The Taiwanese people continue to grow extremely basic and despicable”, Bo Yang wrote,” How can a country whose conscience has degenerated to this stage ever regain its self-respect”?

Han Feizi and all Gen-X Chinamen have crowd-shoving, queue-jumping and open quarreling knowledge that, although they may include atrophied since we were in our prime, would have matched those of the most vulgar Pajeet. We paid money, hustled each other in company, came to brawls in the streets and behaved boorishly at intoxicated dinners. What could have caused Bo Yang to be incorrect?

Let us begin these:” Chinese people’s ability to co-operate and their proclivity for fighting among themselves are deep-rooted, dangerous traits”. Sure there was much fighting, up stabbing and unnecessary elections. But, by heaven, did fighting obstinate Chinamen walk heaven and earth! If that’s what Chinamen you achieve by bickering and failing to engage, finally let’s have a lot more of it! &nbsp,

The Ugly Chinaman&nbsp, has no aged properly. The essays band wooden on a 2024 reading. It’s not just that delicate 2024 China is unidentifiable from the chaos of the 1990s and the depravity of the 2000s, rather, it’s that the change was humdrum and mundane. China’s thinking changed from one of abundance to one of scarcity as a result of economic growth. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The Chinese did not undergo a national spirit searching, prodding people to maintain taste and judgment, as Bo Yang insisted they had:

Each of us must develop our own unique personality and wisdom in order to improve the situation of the Ugly Chinaman. If we’re bad stars, we can at least like going to works. Those who do n’t understand what’s happening on stage can enjoy the music, lights, costumes and scenery, while those who do understand can appreciate drama as an art form. Making these similarities is a great accomplishment in and of itself. Whether the federal grants me my freedoms and rights or not, I do.

While it resonated in the 1990s, Bo Yang’s prescribing for China’s forgiveness is cringeworthy in 2024. For dressed infection by the Westoid mind-virus. Thus romantic. But awkward. If anything, Bo Yang saw China’s transition from a swarm of misbehaving Ugly Chinamen to its present elegant order, where city murder is nonexistent, excellent service is expected, and self-driving Vehicles follow all the traffic laws.

Bo Yang was a delicate person, deflecting his private ressentiment onto contrived failings of his comrades, writing: &nbsp, &nbsp,

Narrow-mindedness and a lack of altruism can create an unequal personality which frequently wavers between two extremes: a persistent feeling of inferiority, and extraordinary arrogance. In his inferiority, a Chinese person is a slave, in his arrogance, he is a tyrant.

Such a cliché, to be honest, is the above lamentation. Han Feizi has heard versions of it used to describe Indians, Germans, Nigerians, American Southerners, investment bankers and Koreans. Bo Yang must have owned the unbalanced personality because it is so unoriginal.

If Bo Yang had been born in the 1990s, he would have avoided many historical indignities. In fact, his youth would have coincided with China’s epic rise. A young 2024 Bo Yang would undoubtedly be a nationalist who would ostensibly champion” the supreme greatness of the Han Chinese people” and continue to gloat about the promotion of Chinese traditional culture worldwide. ” Living in the 1990s, Lu Xun would have felt no need to celebrate or denounce the Chinese people, making a good young doctor and not a writer for the nation.”

Bo Yang would be regarded by supporters of China’s Industrial Party as an example of the Sentimental Party, ineffective crybabies who constantly complain about nebulous inadequacies of the Chinese nation and for which a” change in mentality” is required to “become powerless to usher in.

Sentimental Party members waded idiotic about how one or more of China’s impoverished public latrines represented a character flaw or defect in the 1990s. The loos have been spotless ever since Shanghai mayor Zhu Rongji’s directive to personally clean the subpar ones that were available to city officials. &nbsp,

Under President Hu Jintao, Sentimental Party members worked to create market-based non-resolutions to China’s widespread corruption for ten years. President Xi Jinping prosecuted 2.3 million officials, imprisoning thousands and executing dozens. Significantly lessening corruption is happening. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Pajeets have their own Bo Yangs, whose armchair sociology reveals at least as much about India’s illnesses as their own tortured psychology. Tagore and the Bhagavad Gita are also present in pajeets, just as Confucius and Lu Xun are present in Chinamen. Han Feizi wo n’t go further in the comparisons because he is not an expert on India. The way” Chinaman “lost its resonance may or may not be replicable with” Pajeet” – every slur is different. India evolved into its new slur and, in contrast to China and” Chinaman,” will also develop. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

In the meantime, Pajeets and Chinamen can take a moment to smack our chins, turn on the amateur sociology, and talk about the insane train wrecks known as” Wypipos,” in the spirit of lessening tensions on the China-India border.

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Wishful Chinese see possible Trump 2.0 window to resolve Taiwan – Asia Times

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Some Chinese commentators and media speculate that Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential poll on November 5 will open the door for conversation of China’s unification with Taiwan.

Since Trump won the election, American internet have been eager to know Beijing’s views on the Ukrainian-Russia war, a probable 60 % tax to be imposed on Chinese products and Taiwan things.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry’s spokeswoman, Mao Ning, said in a statement that the following is the official language for the three problems:

    China supports all initiatives that promote social resolution to the Ukrainian crisis and maintains neutrality.

  • China does not respond to fictitious inquiries about fresh US taxes, but it wants to stress that there is neither a trade conflict winner nor a global gain.
  • The Taiwan issue is China’s most pressing and delicate of all bilateral ties, and China is vehemently opposed to standard relations between the US and Taiwan.

Trump received gratitude on becoming the 47th US President on November 7 from Chinese President Xi Jinping. &nbsp,

In the new era, Xi argued that China and the US should find the best way to get down, both domestically and internationally.

” Record teaches that China and the US get from cooperation and gain from fight”, said Xi. A firm, sound, and long-term relationship between China and the US serves the two nations ‘ common goals and fulfills the aspirations of the global community.

Absence of enthusiasm

It’s been eft to experts to see that Xi’s and Mao’s formal words, while pleasant, by no means add up to a rousing cheer.

” Compared with the last people in 2016, the Chinese party’s latest thanks to Trump have skipped the niceties”, Hua Dianlong, a Hubei-based journalist, says in an essay published on November 7.

This, Hua adds, shows that” China is not positive about the steady growth of Sino-US relationships. The formulation shift demonstrates reality.

” Before Trump won the election in 2016, China and the US had maintained a great relationship”, Hua says. But now with his re-election in 2024,” Sino-US relationships have reached a traditional low level. In the event that Trump retakes the presidency, we are pretty watchful.

He claims that a growing trade war between China and the US and continued US work to halt China appear to be unavoidable.

But, like some other critics, Hua thinks there is a probable ray of light. &nbsp, The Taiwan problem, he says, may be a subject for Beijing and Washington to use to break the deadlock as Trump has a different perspective from the Biden-Harris management. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Liang Xun, a Henan-based writer also looking for a beautiful place, says in an essay that the Chinese party’s congratulations to Trump may be summed up in one Foreign word – cooperation.

The US will continue to support China in the Trump 2.0 era, she says, adding that it may perhaps intensify its opposition and competition there and present several challenges and pressures on the country’s economy.

Trump may need to ask China for political assistance in order to meet its promise to end the Ukraine war, she adds. Trump may acquire a comparatively pragmatist stance on the Taiwan issue and refrain from taking drastic measures to stop the Taiwan Strait’s situation from worsening.

She claims she came to this conclusion in response to Trump’s repeated pleas for Taiwan to give “protection fees.”

” Taiwan should compensate us for protection. You know, we’re not different than an insurance company. Taiwan does n’t give us anything”, Trump told Bloomberg Businessweek in an interview in July. &nbsp,

Trump also claimed that Taiwan had “almost 100 %” of the US chip industry. However, some device experts refuted Taiwan’s claim that it had made a lot of money to grow its chip market.

Protection charges

Last month, Trump told the Wall Street Journal that if China goes into Taiwan, the US will impose 150-to-200 % tariffs on Chinese products. &nbsp,

Taiwan could change from being a pawn to an outcast at any time, according to Zhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office ( TAO ).

China may gain from Trump’s Taiwan legislation, according to some Chinese observers. &nbsp,

Yan Mo, a Guancha.cn journalist, claims in an post that the US is levy “protection fees” on Taiwan by imposing tariffs to compel Taiwan’s chipmakers to spend more in or travel to the US.

” In the past few years, Biden had successfully lured the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co ( TSMC) to build factories in Arizona for US$ 65 billion”, Yan says. ” But for investment will not be enough to meet Trump’s hunger, what he wants is Taiwan’s full electric supply chain”.

” After Trump has sucked all the industrial power out of the island, it’ll be time for mainland China to make its move – forcing Taiwan to discuss reunification”, Yan says. &nbsp,

He claims that Trump will refrain from increasing arms sales to Taiwan because he is aware that Beijing would launch an island-specific attack, which would cost the US significantly more. He comes to the conclusion that China might have a chance to resolve Taiwan issues in the Trump 2.0 era. &nbsp,

Of course, not everyone agrees with Yan’s prediction. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Taiwan’s Premier Cho Jung-tai, for example, has stated that it would defend itself and accept more responsibility. &nbsp,

The Asia Times has Yong Jian as a contributor. He is a Chinese journalist specializing in news of technology, the economy and politics.

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US Fed chief Powell says he won’t bow to Trump – Asia Times

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US President-elect Donald Trump has consistently threatened to fire the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. That may have seemed like a remote and absurd idea up until this year. Then, we again have to take it seriously.

Powell himself is undoubtedly one of them, and he has already started to rebel. Responding to the risk on Thursday, he insisted he did not withdraw. Additionally, he claimed that Trump’s repeated threats to remove him were” never permitted under the law.”

May Trump’s attempts to carry out his threat be a crucial first check for any possible authoritarian tendencies.

Powell’s departure had breach long-standing standards of central banks independence. If successful, this development may have significant effects on global democracy and the separation of powers.

An ancient conflict

Trump and Powell’s conflict is not novel. Powell was really appointed governor of the Federal Reserve by Trump in 2018. Yet, like many of his various appointees, Trump quickly turned against Powell.

Criticizing&nbsp, the Federal Reserve for never cutting interest rates fast enough in 2019, Trump called Fed leaders “boneheads”, accusing Powell of having” No’ guts,’ no impression, no eyesight”!

Beyond Trump, some economists have praised Powell’s administration of economic policy, which has effectively reduced soaring inflation rates. Joe Biden, the president, was convinced enough to assign Powell to a second four-year expression as head starting in 2022.

Trump, while, only stepped up his accusations, many of which became uneven with his earlier place. He was instantly criticizing Powell for even considering interest rate reductions in February of this year.

Trump falsely claimed that Powell, a longtime Republican, made the claim that the election was a political stunt to aid Democrats ‘ victory.

Had Trump actually flames Powell?

Trump has asserted on numerous occasions that he should have control over the building of interest rates and that Powell may be fired.

A part of the Federal Reserve table may be “removed for induce by the leader,” according to the appropriate legislation. But in this context, courts have interpreted” for cause” to refer to misconduct or impropriety. The president has the authority to appoint members only for social or policy reasons.

Trump may attempt to remove Powell from the head and appoint a new one as governor. Ok, there is less of a constitutional law. Previous leaders have often assumed that they lack the authority to do this.

The Federal Trade Commission commissioner’s firing effort by President Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1933 is the closest historical precedent. Here, the judges eventually found in favour of the judge’s independence.

But the constitutional landscape has changed. A Supreme Court with a favorable opinion of Trump, which has recently ruled in favor of an expanded professional presidency, may come in with various opinions.

Inflation, prices, inflation

If Trump makes an effort to oust Powell, it will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s freedom. That has a significant impact on its ability to regulate interest rates without involving strong political interference.

In the long run, this is likely to cause inflation to rise. Buyers can anticipate lower interest rates in the future if they think officials are likely to tamp down interest rates in favor of their own short-term social goals.

This assumption alone does not lead to inflation, which is a significant factor in the majority of established nations ‘ policy of isolation from strong political influence.

Unfortunately, promising to lower prices was a central plank of Trump’s powerful election campaign. How Trump approaches Powell’s future may, therefore, be carefully watched by businesses.

Checks and balances

Supreme Court Building, in Washington D.C. United States of America
The US government’s” separating of forces” has historically been a significant idea. Image: Orhan Cam / Shutterstock

Trump’s “populist” philosophy of politics is reflected in his assertion that the leader should have authority over both separate government bodies and interest charges.

Populist officials claim to be a representative of the political will. They frequently oppose administrative checks and balances, arguing that they interfere with the political authority they claim to represent.

Traditional checks and balances have always existed in the US social structure. The goal is to restrict the electricity that a single politician or group can hold.

The” separation of powers” – a appreciated principle in the United States and beyond – seeks to distribute power out across various organisations such as the judiciary, the legislature, the president and other independent institutions.

If Trump fires Powell, it will be a clear indication of how a minute Trump administration will view the separation of powers, and it will help to justify his concern about Trump’s upcoming autocratic purposes.

Henry Maher is professor in elections, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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China’s .4 trillion debt swap girds for Trump tariffs to come – Asia Times

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The US$ 1.4 trillion debt swap package announced by China today ( November 8 ) may have a more significant impact than what might seem.

The shift to mortgage regional authorities bill, approved by the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, marks the first such effort since 2015 to increase the debt roof for communities.

It comes amid concerns about a new Donald Trump presidency that will restore world trade wars, inflationary pressures, and great youth unemployment.

The swap agreement, according to Finance Minister Lan Fo’an, “is a big policy decision taking into account international and domestic advancement environments, the need to maintain the stability of the financial and fiscal operations, and the actual development situation of nearby governments.”

Lan reckons the swap might save roughly 600 billion yuan ( US$ 84 billion ) in interest payments over five years, freeing additional resources to boost investment and consumption. As of the close of 2023, Lan estimates, China’s excellent hidden debt was 14.3 trillion yuan.

Some economists think Friday’s action is enough to revive assurance, as evidenced by a fall in stocks and the renminbi. Most people do n’t believe that this will be the final attempt to alter the story.

As Carlos&nbsp, Casanova, scholar at Union Bancaire Privée, sees it,” the local authorities debt swap program remains inadequate, but extra measures could inspire a recovery in personal investment and a broadening of local consumption”.

Some economists believe that there might still be room for more immediate action to increase home need. What the transfer system may do, though, is get Xi’s Communist Party some time to implement critically needed changes.

Everyone is aware that Team Xi needs to concentrate on strengthening money markets and repairing the property market. Beijing has act more quickly to lessen its hold on power over state-owned enterprises and create more room for startups to stifle the economy. Additionally, authorities had create stronger social safety nets to encourage families to invest more and keep less.

However, despite the desire for these improvements, international investors rarely grant Beijing the patience to carry them out. And efforts to fix, change or adapt China’s economic engines are sure to lower rise significantly. Markets, though, wo n’t hear of it.

Any hint of disappointing island progress causes Chinese stocks to be sold off by international investors. It encourages economists all over to describe the decline in global progress, trade flows, and commodity prices in frequently depressing, market-deflating conditions.

It results in Xi becoming the financial relative of a CEO struggling to produce quarterly earnings. This pattern fosters short-termism, which is one that contributes to Beijing’s gradual progress with China Inc.

Granted, Xi’s group does itself no privileges by continuing to reveal annual development goals. Setting subjective GDP goals year after year distorts incentives and causes policymakers to promote trigger over supply-side retooling.

With this most recent trigger explosion, Xi’s reform team may gain some reluctance from global markets. It’s ambitious enough to convince skeptical people that China is committed to permanently putting an end to recession.

Restoring trust “relies on fiscal and monetary policy help lifting minimum demand”, says Alex Muscatelli, scientist at Fitch Ratings. ” If present trends in the home market are exacerbated, price falls may be entrenched”.

Muscatelli adds that there is a chance of sustained value declines as a result of the “potential exacerbation of recent supply and demand styles coupled with demographic and debts overhang challenges.”

Avoiding that “exacerbation” means pairing monetary and fiscal stimulus with strong revamping moves to increase China’s dynamic activity.

Premier Li Qiang stated in a statement at the China International Import Expo that Beijing has “ample room for fiscal plan and financial policy,” adding that the country will meet the country’s 5 % goal this year. ” The Taiwanese government has the ability to push sustained financial improvement”, Li said.

However Trump’s re-election ups the ante on Beijing. Travel January 2025, when he’s sworn in, Trump will be on the time to hit 60 % levies on Asia’s biggest economy, as he vowed he would on the plan path.

” To mitigate rising US taxes on the market, we believe Beijing had probably scale up governmental stimulus”, says Robin Xing, a planner at Morgan Stanley. Xi may feel compelled to do something about them the more Trump raises trade tensions, according to Xing.

With a Trump success, ING Bank’s main China analyst Lynn Song adds that” the chances for a larger policy assistance package will increase fairly.”

Although China is more prepared to stifle global trade, Eurasia Group’s China practice’s managing director Rick Waters claims Beijing may struggle to stop the collateral damage.

According to Waters,” I believe the challenge is that China is still at a structural disadvantage in a trade war because they lack symmetry.” When the US imposes tariffs on them, they are unable to do so.

Song counters that” the first trade war was a game changer, many companies were caught off guard, and investors were left scrambling. Trump’s proposed tariffs have been in discussion for some time, so they should n’t surprise you much this time around.

Yet the magnitude of the trade tariffs to come could be unprecedented. Take the 100 % tariffs Trump has threatened on Mexican-made cars. How long do Toyota and Hyundai CEOs anticipate that Trump will extend their agreements to South Korea and Japan?

Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, says,” the world’s second-largest economy is already underperforming, and Beijing is feeling increasingly defensive about the tariff threats coming from hawks like former Trump trade czar Robert Lighthizer”.

The Chinese, Bremmer adds, “are going to be frantically trying to establish back channels to China-friendly Trump allies like Elon Musk, hoping they can facilitate a less confrontational relationship. Trump’s hawks will gain favors and demand an even more confrontational strategy, or both? Beijing will move cautiously and slowly in this environment”.

Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, notes that an “insufficient stimulus package, coming on the heels of Trump’s re-election” would backfire, meaning China “needs to find other sources of growth because trade will not make it”.

Another concern is how these and other Trump levies might conflict with Wells Fargo &amp, Co.’s strategy to lower interest rates, writes Brendan McKenna.

More tariffs could fan inflation, he says, adding that the Fed easing “less aggressively” than currently forecast could “act as a tailwind for the dollar”.

China is hardly recession-bound. Data on exports in October, for example, signaled a healthy acceleration — the biggest upshift in activity since mid-2022. In response to Trump’s tariffs, some analysts wonder if Beijing might devalue the yuan in retaliation.

” Beijing might look to devalue the yuan as they did in 2018-2019 to counter tariff effects and boost export competitiveness”, says Dilin Wu, a research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone.

It’s a difficult balancing act. China, after all, is facing multiple challenges from several angles. And if the yuan falls, the biggest of all might get worse. If the yuan drops significantly, property developers who have sizable offshore debt may find it more difficult to make payments.

China’s obsession with annual growth goals plays a major role in the weaker yuan argument. It’s become a particular distraction since the 2008-2009 Lehman Brothers crisis era.

Since then, China’s growth model has relied heavily on municipal leaders around the nation ordering up huge projects: six-lane highways, monorails, international airports, stadiums, conference and shopping centers, city hall complexes, corporate campus districts, five-star hotels, massive museums.

For local government leaders, making China’s annual numbers has dominated the economic incentive structure. A motivated local powerbroker can consistently turn in above-average GDP rates, which is the quickest way to capture Beijing’s attention.

When Xi rose to power in 2012, he pledged to let market forces play a “decisive” role in economic policymaking. Beijing has worked for the past five years to lessen risk in the financial system and reduce risks for property developers to demonstrate this. However, the GDP goal contradicts that priority.

The problem, argues Thomas Helbling, deputy director of the International Monetary Fund’s Asia-Pacific unit, is that” the economy is very investment heavy”.

The biggest headwinds China’s way is being slowed by the property crisis and falling global demand, according to the IMF. Yet, so is a growth model that encourages unproductive borrowing.

Beijing, Helbling says, must level the playing field for private businesses to compete with state-owned enterprises. To encourage consumption and boost investment in education and technology, it must create a strong social safety net. Pension reforms are also crucial to dealing with China’s aging population.

” If you do those reforms, there is an upside to growth”, Helbling concludes.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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