Where is American empire’s fall taking us all? – Asia Times

Evidence suggests that civilizations frequently overextended their coping methods when they are in decline.

The declining kingdom may therefore combine or clash with defense actions, infrastructure issues, and social welfare demands, accumulating costs and negative effects.

Plans aimed to improve empire—and that previously did—now destroy it. Modern cultural changes inside and outside the empire does strengthen, slow, or invert the decline.

However, when drop leads officials to claim its life, it can become self-accelerating. In the early years of dynasties, officials and the led may suppress those who stress or even notice drop.

Cultural problems may also be denied, minimized, or, if admitted, blamed on practical scapegoats—immigrants, foreign powers, or cultural minorities—rather than linked to royal drop.

The US kingdom, ingeniously proclaimed by the Monroe Doctrine shortly after two liberation wars won against Britain, grew across the 19th and 20th ages, and peaked during the years between 1945 and 2010.

The US empire’s expansion and decrease merged with one another’s. There were never any significant economic opposition or threat, but the Soviet Union did, at least, present a minimal number of political and military challenges.

The Cold War was a tense battle whose result was predetermined from the beginning. World War II devastated the US emperor’s possible financial rivals or threats in total.

Europe lost its territories in the years that followed. The exclusive worldwide position of the United States then, with its excessive place in world trade and investment, was anomalous and good untenable.

At the time of the drop, a rejection attitude was all but certain, but it has since changed to one that is now completely denial.

In its combat there in 1950-1953, the United States was unable to physically overthrow all of Korea. The US lost its following wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. None of those benefits could be altered by the NATO ally.

The US’s extensive sanctions against Russia and the US military and financial aid for Ukraine are both failures and likely will continue to be. Cuba, Iran, and China have all fallen short of US restrictions.

However, the BRICS empire counteracts US policies to protect its kingdom, including its sanctions war, with increasing usefulness.

In the realms of business, investment, and financing, we can calculate the decrease of the US empire separately. The reduction in the US dollars as a central banks reserve having is one score. Another is its collapse as a means of business, debts, and expense.

Finally, consider the US currency’s drop alongside that of dollar-denominated goods as abroad desired means of holding success. Across the Global South, countries, business, or businesses seeking business, money or investments used to go to London, Washington or Paris for decades, they now have various options. They may get rather to Beijing, New Delhi or Moscow, where they often secure more attractive words.

The region that holds the empire’s dominance has a number of advantages that lead to amazing profits for local businesses. The 19th centuries was remarkable for its never-ending conflicts and conflicts between civilizations that fought for country and, in turn, for their higher profits.

Any declines in any one kingdom may open up more opportunities for competing civilizations. If the latter grabbed those prospects, the latter’s reduction may increase. In the last century, a number of competing civilizations resulted in two world war. Another generation seems to be being driven to have worse, potentially nuclear world war in this century.

Before World War I, there were rumors that the formation of multinational corporations based on only federal mega-corporations may end or lessen the danger of war. As a natural expansion of their profit-maximizing strategies, owners and directors of exceedingly worldwide corporations may work against war between nations.

The season’s two world wars undermined those beliefs ‘ presence of truth. The fact that global mega-corporations increasingly leased government and subordinated position plans to those firms ‘ competing growth strategies also made sense.

State laws were governed by entrepreneurs ‘ opposition at least as much as the opposite. Out of their conversation emerged the warfare of the 21st centuries in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Ukraine, and Gaza. In addition, as a result of their discussion, rising US-China tensions have grown in the South China Sea and Taiwan.

China presents a special logical problem. Similar to those in agitating economies, where 90 % to 100 % of businesses are privately capitalist-informed, are growth imperatives in the private capitalist portion of its hybrid economic system.

The state-owned-and-operated companies comprising the other third of China’s economy exhibit various drives and desires. Revenue is less important to them than it is to personal bourgeois businesses.

Also, the Communist Party’s rule over the state—including the state’s regulation of the whole Chinese economy—introduces other goals besides income, ones that also govern business decisions.

China’s uniqueness may result in a outcome different from previous clashes of empires because it comprises the entity currently competing with the declining US empire and its major economic allies ( G7 ).

In the past, one empire often supplanted another. That may be our future with this century becoming” China’s” as previous empires were American, British and so on. However, China’s history includes earlier empires that rose and fell: another unique quality.

Could China’s hybrid economy and past have an impact on the country’s ability to transition from one empire to a truly multipolar global organization? If and when China makes that happen, will the hopes and dreams that underpin the League of Nations and the United Nations become reality?

Or will China emerge as the next global hegemon in the face of US-intensified resistance, increasing the threat of a nuclear war?

A rough historical comparison might provide some additional insight into the potential future of today’s class of empires from a different perspective. Britain was irritated enough by the country’s desire for its North American colony’s independence that it waged two wars ( 1775–183 and 1812–15 ) to stop it. Both wars failed.

Britain uncovered the valuable lesson that peaceful coexistence with some mutually beneficial planning and accommodations would enable both economies to function and grow, including in terms of trade and investment both ways across their borders. That peaceful coexistence resulted in a shift in the imperial reach of the one over the other.

Why not suggest that US-China relations will continue to develop in a similar manner over time? Except for ideologues detached from reality, the world would prefer it over the nuclear alternative.

Dealing with climate change and inequality in the distribution of wealth and income are two enormous, unwelcome consequences of capitalism, and there are projects for a US-China partnership that the world will support.

After 1815, capitalism drastically changed in both Britain and the US. After 2025, it is likely to do it once more. The opportunities are attractively open-ended.

Richard D. Wolff is visiting professor in the Graduate Program in International Affairs at the New School University, New York, and professor of economics emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

Wolff’s weekly show, “Economic Update”, is syndicated by more than 100 radio stations and goes to millions via several TV networks and YouTube. Understanding Capitalism ( 2024 ), his most recent book, is Democracy at Work, which responds to inquiries from readers of his earlier books, Understanding Socialism and Understanding Marxism.

The Independent Media Institute’s Economy for All project produced this article. It is republished here with kind permission.

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China’s Sharp Sword combat drones cutting into US airpower – Asia Times

China is ramping up development of its GJ-11 Sharp Sword, a stealthy flying-wing uncrewed combat air vehicle (UCAV ) with the potential to reshape the future of drone warfare, The Warzone reported.

Two GJ-11s are visible at Malan Air Base in northern Xinjiang state, a well-known Chinese hub for uncrewed system tests, according to Planet Labs satellite pictures reviewed by The Warzone.

The GJ-11, designed for strike missions and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance ( ISR ) tasks, has been increasingly linked to future operations with crewed J-20 stealth fighters and potential deployment from People’s Liberation Army–Navy ( PLA-N) aircraft carriers.

The US government’s lack of comparable formally acknowledged projects contrasts starkly with China’s rise in UCAV screening activity, according to The Warzone.

The GJ-11’s development includes rigorous testing for joint operations and higher autonomy, according to The War Zone. It notes that the GJ-11’s development, from its less subtle design first seen in 2013 to its more sophisticated iterations, underscores China’s large ambitions in uncrewed underwater engineering and commitment to advancing its UCAV capabilities.

The US has switched its focus to low-cost robots intended to work closely with manned jets, according to the report, leaving a gap in the development of subtle flying-wing UCAVs.

According to The Warzone statement, this strategic difference suggests a significant change in aerial fight technology, with China probably gaining a competitive advantage in uncrewed stealth capabilities.

Parth Satam mentions the UCAV’s cunning features and innovative design, including a large flying aircraft architecture and top-mounted air intake, in an August 2024 essay for The Aviationist. Satam says that the GJ-11 you work from China’s Model 075 amphibious assault ships, enhancing its flexibility.

He claims that satellite pictures and mockups indicate that the aircraft may be used for carrier aviation and could be used to operate the new Type 076 amphibious war ship. According to Satam, the GJ-11’s stealth and reconnaissance capabilities make it a significant asset for the People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ), particularly in the Western Pacific, where it could carry out surveillance and strike missions.

China may use parties of drones to attack Taiwan’s air defense systems, both on land and at sea, in the event of a potential war. Following this, more substantial air and missile attacks, and probably even an amphibious assault, might be planned.

Guo Yilun and Ma Quan emphasize the integration of manned and unmanned systems in a June 2022 content for the PLA Daily to allow China to develop a wider range of capabilities. Guo and Ma mention that the interaction between human-operated and intelligent platforms will alter battlefield strategies as a new period of clever warfare dawns.

They say that manned-unmanned partnering, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and intelligent technology, enhances operating agility and performance.

In line with that thinking, Mandeep Singh mentions in a March 2022 DefStrat article that China’s GJ-11 represents a significant advancement in manned-unmanned teaming ( MUM-T) capabilities.

While Singh notes that the GJ-11’s specific capabilities remain largely unfamiliar due to the classified nature of China’s defense programs, the GJ-11 is expected to enhance China’s MUM-T operations by probably acting as a “loyal friend” to guarded aircraft like the J-20S or another carrier-based fighters.

Singh points out that this integration aims to make use of the UCAV’s advanced sensors and autonomous capabilities to support manned missions, increasing situational awareness and reducing risks for human pilots.

The US Navy is advancing its uncrewed capabilities by integrating them aboard its supercarriers as China increases its development of the GJ-11 stealth drone for integration with manned platforms and potential carrier operations, indicating a new level of competition for naval and aerial warfare dominance.

Beyond conventional aircraft carriers, drone carriers offer power projection advantages, according to Asia Times in June 2024. These benefits are made possible by enabling unmanned aerial operations to be carried out far afield, extending the range of tactical, operational, and strategic options.

Unmanned systems are safer, more cost-efficient and well-suited for high-risk missions. Drone carriers, meanwhile, provide a practical and cost-effective way to improve aerial capabilities over extended distances for middle-income countries that lack land-based facilities.

Nevertheless, drones have limitations in areas with strong air defense systems and electronic warfare capabilities.

The US Navy is advancing its naval warfare capabilities by integrating a dedicated Unmanned Air Warfare Center ( UAWC ) on the USS George H. W. Bush ( CVN-77 ), according to an article from Asia Times in August 2024. This is the first supercarrier to feature a facility like this.

This development, reported by The War Zone in August 2024, is part of a broader plan to equip all Nimitz and Ford-class carriers with UAWCs. The UAWC will act as the operational hub for MQ-25 Stingray tanker drones and upcoming collaborative combat aircraft (CCA ) in the future.

The initiative aims to reduce reliance on F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighters for refueling tasks and expand the carrier air wing’s reach. Early in the year, the USS George H. W. Bush is scheduled to begin conducting at-sea testing of the UAWC’s operational networks.

This action highlights the growing need for aerial refueling capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region, where extensive distances and changing threats necessitate increased force projection.

The US Navy’s strategy also includes a significant shift towards uncrewed aircraft, with plans for carrier air wings to comprise 60 % uncrewed aircraft, aligning with the broader Next Generation Air Dominance ( NGAD ) program.

The US is redefining its carrier fleet with autonomous systems, while China’s GJ-11 stealth drones represent a significant step toward military dominance in the near future. This tit-for-tat has set the stage for a high-tech aerial and naval power projection competition.

In a June 2024 CIMSEC article, Brent Sadler mentions that aircraft carrier design has changed throughout history due to evolving threats, emphasizing the crucial role of integrating unmanned platforms, long-range weapons and advanced data processing.

Sadler says drones, such as the MQ-25, are repurposed for tanking roles, extending the operational range of manned aircraft like the F/A-18 and F-35. This shift, he says, necessitates design changes, including larger ammo elevators and advanced launch systems like EMALS.

He emphasizes adaptability and flexibility in carrier design to modern challenges, such as drone swarms and anti-ship ballistic missiles.

Sadler points out that in order to maintain operational superiority, carrier warfare will need to be conducted in a networked manner, integrating sensors and weapons from various platforms.

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Huawei struggling to make enough chips for Mate70 – Asia Times

Huawei Technologies, a Shenzhen-based communications producer, is apparently struggling to secure adequate high-end cards for the next edition of its Mate70 premier smartphone, the latest outcome in the US-initiated device war on China. &nbsp,

According to The Information, Huawei and its local chip-making partner Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp ( SMIC ), both sanctioned by the US, planned to produce 2.5 million chips before releasing the Mate70 for a September product launch, but the goal was met due to limited manufacturing capacity and productivity issues, The Information reported. &nbsp,

According to the Information Report, the” continuing influence of a four-year-old US restrictions on the source of chip manufacturing equipment to Huawei and SMIC” is the root cause of the missed goal.

Huawei would release the Mate70 smartphone in China on September 10, a moment after Apple Inc. unveiled the iPhone16 in the US on September 9. However, according to Chinese media, the Mate70 smartphone is then anticipated to be released in November. &nbsp,

Huawei properly still choose to showcase its Mate70 the following week, according to The Information, but only a select few phones will be made quickly available for purchase. &nbsp,

It stated that the company would allow users to pre-order and waited for delivery, a policy similar to the one used to build the Mate60 Pro in late August while US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo was in Beijing.

In September 2023, Raimondo, the prospect US national behind the device war, said she was “upset” by the release of Mate60 Pro, which is powered by 7nm Kirin 9000s bits and showed China had found alternatives on US high-end device restrictions.

She claimed at a hearing in the US House of Representatives that her team had no idea that China could produce 7nm cards at the range. Last October, she told the Senate that the launch of Mate60 Pro was “incredibly disturbing” .&nbsp,

If the Mate70 is actually launched in November, Raimondo might not have to deal with legislative scrutiny before the US national elections on November 5. &nbsp,

Chinese IT websites reported on Thursday ( September 5 ) that Huawei will unveil the world’s first triple-fold smartphone, known as Mate XT, at a marketing event on September 10. They said the long-awaited Mate70 or Mate70 RS will not be unveiled at the occasion. &nbsp,

Cailian Press, a Chinese economic media company, reported citing unnamed resources on August 28 that Huawei will release the Mate 70 in November. The smartphone may use a fresh Kirin computer and HarmonyOS NEXT, an Android operating system developed by Huawei without the use of Android code, according to the statement. &nbsp,

The Mate70 is anticipated to use a 7nm device known as Kirin 9100, according to popular belief. &nbsp,

A Guangdong-based IT columnist&nbsp, says&nbsp, there are several types of Kirin 9100, but even the lowest-end another has a performance relative to Qualcomm’s Android 8 Gen 1 computer. The blogger asserts that the Kirin 9100 can produce video smoothness comparable to that of the Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 and 3 chips.

Minimal production capacity

Since 2019, the US has asked ASML, the world’s largest chip equipment supplier based in the Netherlands, to stop shipping extreme-ultraviolet ( EUV) lithography machines to China. In a single exposure, EUV lithography can produce 2-3nm chips in various exposures, and 7nm chips can be produced in one.

A team led by Liang Mong-Song, managing director of SMIC and a former engineer at TSMC and Samsung, later successfully made 7nm chips using deep-ultraviolet ( DUV) lithography machines and multiple exposure techniques. &nbsp,

In June this year, The Data reported that Huawei had faced roadblocks in manufacturing its Ascend 910B, a 7nm device that is said to be equal to 80 % of Nvidia’s A100 in terms of AI-training performance. It said the situation was a result of the US Commerce Department’s device trade controls. &nbsp,

But, a calculation made by Asia Times using common figures&nbsp, showed&nbsp, that Huawei is also simply end its goal of making 400, 000 to 500, 000 Ascend 910B chips&nbsp, this time even if its supply is as low as 20 %. In case Huawei needs more capacity to make AI chips, it can reduce the production of HiSilicon’s Kirin chips.

Whether Huawei and SMIC have slowed the development of Kirin chips to accommodate Ascend 910B is still undetermined. &nbsp,

Despite a difference in yield, SMIC’s capabilities are only three years behind TSMC’s, based on the performance of the Chinese chips that were shipped, according to Hiroharu Shimizu, CEO of Tokyo-based TechanaLye, a semiconductor research company that disassembles and analyzes 100 electronic devices a year.

Shimizu told Nikkei in an interview last month that HiSilicon’s design capabilities have also improved, given that its 7nm chips perform comparable to TSMC’s 5nm products. &nbsp,

More chip export rules

The Dutch government has stopped granting ASML licenses to export to China its NXT: 2000i and subsequent DUV immersion systems since the start of this year. &nbsp,

The Dutch government announced on Friday that ASML will need to submit an application for export licenses with it rather than the US government for shipments of its vintage DUV immersion lithography machines, NXT: 1970i and 1980i, respectively. The new rule will become effective on September 7.

” I am making this decision for our security. When exporting this particular production equipment, we observe that technological advancements present greater safety risks. Dutch Foreign Trade Minister Reinette Klever stated in a statement released on Friday, particularly in the current geopolitical climate.

” The Netherlands has a unique and leading position. That comes with a responsibility that we must take seriously”, he said. &nbsp,

Klever noted that the expansion of the licensing requirement affects specific equipment that is only produced by a select few businesses in the Netherlands. The company licensing requirement “requires a small portion of the total product portfolio of the companies that fall under this scheme.”

The updated license requirement, according to ASML, is only a technical change intended to “harmonize the approach for issuing export licenses.” China may fall under this new rule, according to some media reports, adding that the Hague will evaluate export license applications “on a case-by-case basis.” &nbsp,

38 country coalition

On Thursday, the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security ( BIS ) announced new export controls on quantum computers, advanced chip-making equipment and Gate All-Around Field-Effect Transistor ( GAAFET ) technology that can be used to make chips for supercomputers.

The BIS stated in a press release that it has worked diligently to establish relationships with like-minded nations abroad and to form a 38-country coalition to improve the impact of export controls on degrading Russian military capabilities and its supporters, including Belarus and Iran. &nbsp,

China is not mentioned in the press release, but it appears that all curbs point to it. On Friday, Mao Ning, a representative of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, criticized the US for politicizing and stifling economic issues and stumbling upon global supply chains. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Read: China threatens chip war retaliation against Dutch, Japanese

Follow Jeff Pao on X: &nbsp, @jeffpao3

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What the Pope didn’t see in Indonesia – Asia Times

Pope Francis said,” The way we are called to follow is the way we are called to follow,” while on a visit to Jakarta’s Istiqlal Mosque, the largest mosque in Southeast Asia, on September 5.

The papal visit to Indonesia, the second since 1989, was characterized by religious compassion as the cleitmus. For many in Indonesia, a nation usually embroiled in religious strife, the priest’s concept of compassion has been a pleasant one.

The leaders of Indonesia are at least figuratively committed to the idea, as seen in the tunnel that connects Istiqlal to the Catholic church same or in the pope’s speech praising” Unity in Diversity,” which he praised while meeting with President Joko Widodo.

But while there is much to admire in Indonesia’s linguistic embrace of compassion, critics say day to day experiences are less forgiving for religious minorities. Some also worry that politicians will continue to be divided.

In this 80 % Muslim country, the answer to the papal visit has been overwhelmingly positive. The pope had already cultivated kindness for the plight of Rohingyas and Palestinians thanks to his outcry.

His somewhat understated manner impressed a community that is accustomed to leaders surrounded by extravagant extravagance. Indonesians were appreciative of the priest’s choice to abandon a fancy car for a more practical purpose, opting instead for a simple Toyota Innova Zenix, where he was then sat in the front desk and waved to masses from a lightly rolled-down window.

Pope Francis ‘ decision to travel commercially rather than by personal jet, his cheap observe, and his boots have been thoroughly dissected by mainstream media and social media users.

Near GBK facility, where the bishop held a size, a handful of Muslims may be spotted accompanying Catholic buddies. A woman paired a robe with deely-boppers with messages of pleasant and the priest’s face.

Perhaps a government request that TV channels refrain from broadcasting the customary evening call to prayer and instead display a text message on the screen failed to stoke many unanimity.

The Prosperous Justice Party, Indonesia’s just Islamist group, grumbled. However, its leaders were careful not to condemn the bishop, suggesting it had been the government’s concept and framed their issues in terms of compassion.

” Truthfully, continuing as usual may show the beauty of compassion in this region”, said Jaizul Juwaini, the party’s political leader. There is no issue as long as the size is going on, and the call to prayer can still be broadcast.

In the meantime, representatives from various significant Muslim organizations made it clear that giving a Catholic a sign of courtesy was not an issue.

Indonesia has long been cultivated as a country that values modest Islam and intercultural tolerance. Over half of Indonesia’s population lives in Java, where Islam has a distinctive local twang when it sits behind and even if it is in sync with existing Hindu-Buddhist lifestyle and other localized beliefs.

Politics has even a part to play. The country may be largely Arab, but Indonesia’s leaders, much worried their inland nation could balkanize, are keenly aware that non-Muslims form majorities or big minorities in different areas.

To prevent issue, the constitution guarantees freedom of religion. Obviously, the law also says the position is based on “one great God” – a request to Islamist groups who wanted to establish an directly Muslim condition post-independence.

But for administrative purposes, the express recognizes six religions – recently given some standing to other beliefs – stretching one divine heaven to somehow include acknowledgement of not just Muslims, Protestants, and Catholics but likewise Hindus, Buddhists, Confucians and several nearby religious groups.

While there was a worrying rise in spiritual murder in the country in the first decade of the 20th century, effective counterterrorism efforts have managed to largely control this once-potential danger.

Hindu, Buddhist, and various religious communities are not subject to the persecution that has led to the migration of minority religious populations from large areas of the Middle East.

We need to look at how things are here, says Ihsan Ali-Fauzi, a leading advocate for the Freedom of Religion or Belief,” so we ca n’t just compare ourselves to the Middle East, but we ca n’t just compare ourselves to other foreign countries.”

The primary concern for him is a need for social harmony that, when needed, can override liberties. Indonesia’s model essentially relies on allowing formally recognized religions to live without allowing for intermingling or heterodoxy.

Relationships, for example, remain spiritual affairs in laws. Interfaith organisations are therefore prohibited by law, with a Supreme Court decision last month closing a legal gap by attempting to file marriages in court. The best course of action for couples is typically one group getting married abroad, often reverting, or getting married there.

A 2006 ministerial decree, which makes religious minority reliant on the majority’s consent for construction of new houses of worship, is another significant problem. The end result can be a powerful reject in some circumstances.

Just west of Jakarta, for example, the John the Baptist Catholic church has been waiting for like rights since 1993. Sometimes, passes that are granted may consider themselves subject to restrictions, such as avoiding them in areas where they are accessible to passersby.

Yet Muslims may consider themselves affected by these laws, mainly the Ahmadis, Bahais or perhaps Shia who are viewed as sinners by some Sunnis, who represent the majority of Indonesia’s Muslims.

However, in Jayapura in the Indonesian province of Papua, a major mosque was forced to close its tower in 2018 because it was taller than the spires of all the churches where local Christians, who made up the majority of the population, were gathered.

Interestingly, the Indonesian Ulema Council, an important Muslim system, truly argued Christian requirements should be respected provided that they were “appropriate”.

With political devolution post-democratization in 1998, dynamics are often hyper-local. Christin Rinawati, an Indonesian Catholic, described the stark difference between living in the province of Yogyakarta, in southcentral Java, and Bekasi, West Java, just a few hours away.

In the former, her Muslim neighbors are pleased to have a welcome Christmas visit. Some in the latter were receptive to this, and local Catholics were concerned about gathering for choir practice in private homes.

Even in Yogyakarta, dynamics can be starkly different because there is only one cemetery for both Christians and Muslims in some areas. Others segregate grave sites or even object to the arrival of Christian residents.

On a national level, some worry that Indonesia is slowly becoming less tolerant. ” Things may have been easier for religious minorities under Suharto’s dictatorship”, says Ihsan.

” This is n’t necessarily because mentalities have changed. However, because of that, we were governed with an iron fist. Ihsan says that democracies have given hardline groups the chance to spread their ideas and stoke up opposition. &nbsp,

Indonesia’s strict blasphemy laws, which ban insult to any religion, have become a rallying point for Islamic hardliners. A Muslim influencer who filmed himself trying to eat pork on social media and a bar that foolishly attracted attention by offering free drinks to anyone named Muhammad have fallen foul of these accusations.

More gravely, in 2017, Indonesia was rocked by accusations that the Chinese Christian governor of Jakarta, Basuki” Ahok” Purnama, then running for reelection, had committed blasphemy.

While some Muslim leaders expressed opposition to the demonstrations, other important leaders backed them, either out of genuine belief or fear of being outflanked in piety.

Purnama would ultimately lose the election and face blasphemy-related sentencing after serving two years in prison.

” These religious tensions are often caused by political factors”, argues Father Baskara, a senior Jesuit in Indonesia. ” We are ok as long as politicians do n’t use religious issues as their way of getting things,” he said.

The priest, in fact, believes that Indonesia’s tolerance is improving, claiming that things have. Even the resurgence of the Israel-Palestine conflict has n’t had repercussions for religious harmony in Indonesia in the same way it has in the past, he claims.

In North Sulawesi, there was a conflict between pro-Israeli evangelical Christians and Islamic organizations, but the government intervened quickly to stop the conflict.

Although the measures taken against them raised some difficult questions about religious freedom, the government’s crackdown on hardline Islamist groups may have also contributed to maintaining the order.

Others, however, take a gloomier view. ” You have to look at the number of discriminatory regulations”, says Andreas Harsono, a researcher with Human Rights Watch.

He contends that these are gradually expanding as laws restrict Ahmadis ‘ ability to practice freely or force Muslim girls to wear headscarves wherever they choose in school, despite regulations that affect not just houses of worship.

Communities can engage in numerous minor conflicts and suffer minor injustices, of which few actually make the news, within the bounds of these laws.

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Russia’s new nuke doctrine – tactical use risk or another empty threat? – Asia Times

Russia’s news this week that its nuclear weapons doctrine will be revised has skepticism about what this means and whether it represents a major escalation of its conflict in Ukraine.

Sergei Ryabkov, deputy foreign minister, stated in an interview that the change in the nuclear doctrine was “related to the increase course of our American adversaries.”

President Vladimir Putin’s order from 2020 established Russia’s nuclear philosophy. In it, it is stated that Russia may employ nuclear weapons in the event of an enemy nuclear attack or if a normal assault” threatens the existence of the state.”

The report also opens the possibility of developing nuclear weapons if Russia is informed of a potential nuclear strike, rather than just after assurance that Russian goals had been hit.

They can also be used in response to normal attacks on vital services ( for instance, an early-warning radar system ), which might make it difficult to find and react in response to a nuclear attack.

Russia’s customization of the theory in 2020 was obviously driven by martial factors, including advances in normal missile systems.

The most recent announcements about philosophy changes, in comparison, seem more in line with a pattern of Russian saber-rattling intended to detract and stifle the support of Ukraine from the West.

Nuclear saber-rattling

Nuclear challenges are everything new for the Putin state. Since the full-scale conquest of Ukraine in February 2022, more than 50 top Russians have made direct or indirect nuclear threats, according to a website.

When he announced his” specific military activity” on day one of the war, for example, Putin placed Russian nuclear forces on “high fight call”. He warned:

Whoever tries to encircle us [must be aware that the Russian response may be fast and have effects unlike any other time in history.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev has even aired many risks, both obscure and certain. One of the things he has suggested might lead to a radioactive reaction is:

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued a similar nuclear reminder about Ukraine’s F-16 fighter jet provide next year.

Some Putin supporters also speculated about a nuclear attack on the United Kingdom or as a caution against Ukrainian locations to show Russia’s contempt for what it claims to be American anger.

These rhetorical storms have also been followed by deeds that show Russia’s severity, such as conducting training with its nuclear weapons or arming tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.

Most of these Russian “red ranges” have already been crossed, but, making Medvedev and the others look like the proverbial boy who cried wolf.

Ukraine’s recent invasion into Russia’s Kursk place, for example, crossed the line of affecting Russia’s territorial integrity, although any Russian progress is hardly possible to” threaten the living” of the Russian condition.

And while Moscow boasts in public that the invasion is a “provocation” or “escalation,” it has also invaded and occupied almost one-fifth of Ukraine’s place as authorized by a diplomatic agreement, giving it a difficult job program to identify other than as fascist.

Russian rhetoric has made the West careful

In his interview, Ryabkov did not elaborate on what changes to the atomic theory might be under account. He later claimed that NATO’s “disregard for our potential in this area and a belief ] that… [ …] requires a more precise and crystal-clear statement of what might happen if they continue to ignore]our potential.”

This echoes one Russian hawk’s call to lower the bar for using nuclear weapons to” calm up our critics.”

An updated theory may also embrace the idea of “escalating-to-deescalate”, which has been advanced by some Russian military philosophers. The rationale is that the use of nuclear weapons could “de-escalate” a standard conflict in ways that are advantageous to Russia.

Soviet saber-rattling has undoubtedly sparked a lot of caution in the West’s reaction, stifling its flow of desperately needed weapons to Ukraine and preventing Russian forces from using them inside Russia or against particular Russian goals. The motives given by Washington for these regulations continue to change and be unrealistic, as The Economist points out.

The Americans are” caught in a pit of their own doing” and appear unsure how to get out of it, according to UK proper professional Laurence Freedman, who takes on a quasi-supervisory part in how munitions are used.

Russian nuclear threats may be entirely ignored, but it seems unlikely that the proposed changes will provide any more ambiguous evidence of Russian activities. The track record of saber-rattling rhetoric, muddied with ordinary disclaimers about having no purpose to employ nuclear weapons, comes across as a grisly” good cop, bad cop” program.

It seems absurd to me that Russia would only use nuclear weapons to supply Ukraine with weapons against NATO nations. If Russia is forced out of its occupied territory in Ukraine, a strike on Ukraine with tactical nuclear weapons is more likely. However, this would undoubtedly have disastrous effects on Russia internationally because of its unimportant military gains.

If Russia is successful in capturing more of Ukraine’s territory or halting its current occupation, it will send the message that only nuclear weapons can be used to defend itself from nuclear powers. More nuclear saber-rattling only reinforces that message.

In exchange for guarantees of security and border integrity, which have obviously proved meaningless, Ukraine itself gave Russia the Soviet-era nuclear weapons it owned in 1994 in exchange.

Jon Richardson is a visiting fellow at the Australian National University’s Centre for European Studies.

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Rejecting China’s bullying at Second Thomas Shoal – Asia Times

This post originally appeared on Pacific Forum, and it has since been republished with authority. Read the original around.

A “provisional agreement” was signed by the Philippines and China on July 21 to end a conflict over a submerged reef in the South China Sea and within the Philippines ‘ Exclusive Economic Zone ( EEZ ).

The Philippines would be able to replenish the BRP Sierra Madre that was grounded on Minute Thomas Shoal with the help of the deal. Evidently, China sought to perceive the agreement to support its improper states within the Philippines ‘ EEZ. On July 27, the Philippines was able to replenish the Sierra Madre.

While nine Chinese ships ( including three&nbsp, People’s Liberation Army Navy warships ) shadowed the mission, the Philippines claim there was no interference. China, on the other hand, claims to have undertaken “on-the-scene” audits of the sale.

Whether or not China harmed this specific recharge goal, it is likely to harmed these missions once more by asserting a right to inspection.

The Philippines does reject the interim agreement for this reason, and it should supplies the BRP Sierra Madre with whatever materials and methods it deems appropriate. If China continues to interfere, the Philippines may take up the United States’&nbsp, present to help in the resupply&nbsp, operations.

In its interpretation of the interim agreement, China wants to compel the Philippines to take ipso post the claim that China has constitutional authority over the South China Sea.

China claims it must be informed in advance of any supplies operations, that Manila you simply take “living needs”, and that China is entitled to “on-site validation” of the materials sent.

This basically confirms China’s legitimate ownership of the Next Thomas Shoal as well as indirectly gives legitimacy to China’s possession of a variety of additional characteristics in the Philippines ‘ EEZ.

Manila would acknowledge that China is legally owned and that all decisions made by the Philippines are made by China’s great practices. This is&nbsp, improper in global law&nbsp, and undesirable for the Philippines ‘ national interests.

Another issue with Beijing’s view is that it renounces both the Philippines ‘ apparent need for natural resources as well as legal authority.

The Philippines is a fresh and growing state (unlike China ) that needs to supply its people. It will also significantly need the&nbsp, power tools available&nbsp, from the South China Sea.

To give up these tools not only sets a law that discredits the rule-based world order, but it also discredits the Philippines ‘ financial future.

What’s really going on below?

China’s actions in the South China Sea has received a lot of controversy since 2014, but its actions has constantly been revisionist over the past 50 years. For instance, in January 1974, China attacked and seized certain&nbsp, Vietnamese-occupied functions in the Parcel Islands.

In the late 1980s, China&nbsp, skirmished with the Vietnamese&nbsp, at Johnson Reef in the Spratly Islands. And of course, in violation of international law, it started building territories inside of the Philippines EEZ in 2014. Different states like as&nbsp, Indonesia have faced Chinese abuse.

China wants to expand its safety perimeter and manage the South China Sea because it wants to manage the assets there.

China’s actions not just violates the&nbsp, United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, per the&nbsp, Permanent Court of Arbitration’s 2016 decision, but it is also possibly a contravention of the UN Charter, &nbsp, Article 2, Part 4. China is attempting to undermine the now stressed rule-based global order by violating international laws on a number of levels.

The issue with the temporary agreement is that it provides legal justification for China’s often improper deeds. It is another case of China’s extended use of “lawfare“. It grants power to China where it lacks all legitimate standing. This is the first move in a slog to acknowledge China’s ownership of the Philippines ‘ EEZ.

Otherwise, the Philippines may continue to reject all of Beijing’s says inside the Philippine EEZ. It may continue to assert its right and&nbsp, demand with the United States&nbsp, on aid in resupplying the BRP Sierra Madre. In fact, the Philippines and the US may use force rather than force white zone maneuvers.

Manila’s legal say should be backed by lasting and effective job. Therefore, the Philippines may create a more permanent existence at the Second Thomas Shoal in addition to continuing the resupply operations.

There are a number of possibilities that the Philippines and the US may choose in terms of law enforcement. Second, the Philippines may resolve some of its pending sea disputes with its neighbors. The Philippines has previously&nbsp, settled specific disputes through negotiation.

This strategy is useful inasmuch as it is peaceful. However, using internationally recognized dispute resolution mechanisms to resolve various unresolved issues would be a great step in demonstrating the value of the democratic order as opposed to China’s dismissal of the rule of law.

Next, the Philippines can continue to apply the rule of law to proclaim its freedom, such as it did in June when it&nbsp, filed a claim&nbsp, with the UN to expand its continental shelf. This once demonstrates the option to China’s method.

Third, the Philippines might file a new lawsuit with the Permanent Court of Arbitration in relation to China’s death of wildlife. &nbsp, The Philippines considered this in later 2023. &nbsp, The US, for its part, has the tools and legal knowledge to provide the Philippines help. Also, it has the ability to impact world view in a way that asserts continuing consciousness of China’s sophistry.

The rule of law is no respected in Beijing. However, it cannot because of the autocratic nature of its program. The PRC’s attempt to secure legal support for its then unsupported and illegal South China Sea claims is the subject of the interim agreement.

By negotiating privileges that China has no legal state to, the Philippines and other like-minded countries may not support or otherwise justify China’s actions. Doing so would destroy the world rules-based purchase.

Michael Tkacik ( [email protected] ) holds a JD from Duke University School of Law and a PhD from the University of Maryland. He is Stephen F. Austin State University’s doctor of state, and he also serves as the head of the School of Honors.

His study interests focus on the Indo-Pacific. He has published widely in publications such as Analytical Strategy, Defense &amp, Security Analysis and International Relations.

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Why German reunification is still a good idea – Asia Times

When asked what I think of European reconciliation, I typically respond that I believe it is a good idea and that we should pursue it. This is, of course, a prank, as Germany is today united with no formal inside edges.

However, 35&nbsp, years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the division between West and East Germany remains clearly visible, with the victory of the far-right Alternative for Germany ( AfD ) in the state of Thuringia in Sunday’s state parliamentary elections a case in point. These schisms show no sign of fading in the near future, according to a quick look at economic and social records.

Now, compared with the East, West Germany has higher income degrees, lower unemployment rates, more firms, fewer hours worked, more millionaires, higher vehicle equity, higher voter membership, less inclination for serious political parties, higher share of younger citizens, higher proportion of immigrants, higher number of religious affiliations and more spend produced.

Historical significance

The former border between West and East Germany, now known as the Former Federal Republic’s and the New Länder, respectively, is where the differences clearly intersect. After World War II, Germany’s historical division caused two nations with opposing economic and social systems that diverged for more than 40 years.

The reasons behind the current differences are more complicated than just this shocking shock, though. In fact, a trio of authors has demonstrated that the same regional disparities existed prior to the founding of the German Democratic Republic ( GDR). For example, in 1925, the” West” already had a lower share of working-class workers, more self-employment, lower voting shares in extreme parties, higher church attendance and lower female labor participation. Additionally, World War II had a larger destructive impact in the East, and there was a limited migration from the East to the West just before the wall was raised.

Approximation but no lasting convergence

Reunification’s claim that it would lead to long-term convergence was probably overstated.

It is accurate to say that West Germany inherited well-functioning institutions. Additionally, it underwent a better than initially anticipated privatization process and received significant financial transfers from the West to finance social expenditure and investment.

However, after an initial improvement in living standards in the East, economic conditions quickly deteriorated, and the population shrank. Although fiscal transfers may have reduced the divergence between the two regions, they failed to produce sustained convergence.

This is hardly surprising, given that disintegration was a much more significant shock than reunification. After more than four decades of separation, the production infrastructure did not revert to its original spatial arrangement following reunification. Furthermore, the manner in which reunification was conducted likely exacerbated these disparities.

Unanticipated psychological impacts

Convergence is not just about money; it also involves psychology, which is a crucial and challenging task in economic affairs, and some measures that may have seemed justified from a strictly economic perspective have had unexpected effects.

For example, job losses related to the privatization of state-owned enterprises in the East decreased individual trust, reduced political engagement and increased support for radical parties, as Kellermann’s work has shown. These fears of distrust have now become deeply ingrained.

Support for extreme parties is not diminishing, and many of these voters oppose the European project. On September 1, the AfD won the state election in Thuringia, marking its first-ever victory in a state election, and came a close second in Saxony. A recently formed populist left-wing party, BSW, came third in these elections.

Thirty-five years after reunification, there is no clear path back to convergence for the former East German states. On the contrary, we are currently experiencing political and policy paralysis. This has been made worse by significant geoeconomic shocks that have affected Germany in recent years, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which boosted inflation, and the Fortress China strategy, which slammed German exports to China.

Political, economic and social fragmentation is back.

European inequalities

Even worse, German reunification occurred in a context of more general divergence between European regions. The German situation is not a singular case within the European Union, which is worrying as it may be.

Around the same time, another unification took place in Europe. The Maastricht Treaty, which went into effect on November&nbsp, 1, 1993, marked the foundation of the European Union ( EU). It paved the way for the development of a common currency, the euro, and a stronger cooperation between member states and the development of European institutions. However, much like German reunification, it did not lead to regional convergence within the European Union, as one might have expected.

Similar divides to those between West and East Germany exist in other European countries, such as the urban-rural divide in France, but also within the European Union, where peripheral regions have struggled, with a few exceptions. These peripheries ‘ paths to a sustainable recovery are unsure.

Instead, as the recent Brexit-related experience shows, several factors make us worry that we are moving in the direction of political and economic disintegration within European countries and Europe.

Better allocation of funds

I would like to suggest two options for further investigation, despite the fact that these issues cannot be resolved quickly. The effectiveness of EU funds is a promising area. Beyond just setting future climate change goals, there is a pressing need to significantly alter the level and use of EU funds, as discussed in my joint article with Jérôme Creel” ThisGenEU.”

We now have much more information about how to use EU funds effectively. Some local governments may be persuaded to reduce public spending in response to these funds, which could undermine their intended effects. Therefore, it is crucial to target funds that foster medium-term growth and to combine them with policies that enable peripheral regions to use them more productively, in order to avoid a” Dutch disease” type of situation.

Dutch disease

This phrase describes a situation where financial inflows cause economic distortions, such as rising wage costs, overheating the real estate market, or excessive concentration of investments in low-productivity sectors, which ultimately result in a country’s economy being negatively impacted over the long run. Politically, it can also lead to an institutional” Dutch disease”, where excessive reliance on external funds weakens incentives to reform local institutions, creating institutional blockages and ineffective governance.

For example, European funds should be supervised by Europeans and not by local authorities. It is crucial to disengage their management and use from local political authorities. In order to balance competition and coordination among various regions, industrial policy should be put in place at the European level. Regional governments could also be given more authority over the supply of public goods to promote healthy regional competition.

More free trade?

Second, the European Union is still far from being fully integrated. There are too many trade restrictions, despite the EU’s commitment to free trade and a single market. Even in terms of trade in goods, the reality is far from a real single European market. Services are a much bigger untapped market. From the current EU version of “free trade,” it is essential to free trade.

For example, reducing regulatory differences, labor market restrictions, infrastructure asymmetries and improving cross-border connections, as well as strengthening capital market integration, would allow EU economies and regions to specialize more in the production of goods and services for which they have a genuine comparative advantage.

This would lead to a more efficient allocation of resources within the EU and a greater convergence of prices across Europe, according to the factor price equalization ( FPE ) theorem found in many economics textbooks. Wages and other sources of income are likely to be a part of the convergence.

Of course, more research and discussion are required to explore these and other options for resolving the current problems of economic divergence. These are existential concerns for both Germany and the EU, particularly in the current state of heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

The answer to the problem of German reunification may not be in Germany, but rather within the European Union. Effective European funding and greater European integration have the potential to bring about economic convergence and strengthen both Germany and the EU’s political and social fabric. We all stand to gain from the fact that Germany’s reunification is still a good idea.

Gonçalo Pina is a visiting associate professor for global economics at the ESCP Business School.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Chinese, Russian anti-US disinformation flourishing in Africa – Asia Times

One of the biggest dangers to cultures is the spread of propaganda. Current examples include conspiracies about Covid-19 treatments and false promises about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The conflict between the earth powers, which is also occurring in Africa, is a contributing factor.

Across the globe, many foreign powers, including China, France, Russia, the US and people, are competing to shape public opinion. States typically communicate their ideas through reasonable means. However, there have been numerous new instances in which foreign powers have propagated false or misleading information about current affairs.

For instance, Meta revealed in 2020 that the French army was behind a Russian-Centre online strategy. And in 2022, the US was accused of leading a propaganda campaign targeting Arab-speaking areas.

Russian employees are effective spreaders of misleading information throughout the Sahel, according to evidence. China has also used state-controlled internet to provide its own proper stories on the continent of Africa.

Social actors use proper narratives, some real or false, to advance their goals and values and influence how people perceive worldwide events. They are basically stories that political actors use to shape their perceptions and behaviors. The question then arises: what elements influence the success of corporate stories?

We examined the prevalence of Russian and Chinese corporate stories in a lengthy published research. We even describe their appeal. Our results are based on a study of 4, 600 citizens in four American nations– Angola, Ethiopia, South Africa and Zambia – at the end of 2022.

These four nations have very distinct political scenery, differing degrees of cooperation with China and Russia, and distinct traditional contexts with international influence.

Most people, in our opinion, thought the popular Russian and Chinese proper disinformation stories to be accurate. The main reason they did but was anti-US mood. That is, the more people believed that the US was an army or that they had a negative impact on their nation, the more likely they were to accept that the Chinese and Russian stories were real.

These studies also matter for counter-disinformation methods. Simple disinformation debunking using fact-checking or media education campaigns is unlikely to succeed on its own when tactical narratives make use of deep-seated attitudes, political histories, and alliances.

Soviet propaganda is popular

Our research builds on earlier studies on propaganda and its impact on global South public opinion.

We have recently identified the causes of some people sharing deception, what people from various backgrounds do when they encounter social disinformation, and what can be done to stop the spread of false information.

In our most recent research, we discovered that Western media outlets frequently portrayed Russia as a proponent of autonomy and traditional beliefs while dishonest or imperialist.

Also, Chinese internet – CGTN, China Daily and Xinhua – emphasized China’s position as a companion in Africa’s development while dismissing or denying bad aspects of Chinese influence.

We discovered that Russian tales were more broadly accepted in all nations than Chinese people. We questioned the validity of two remarks that exemplified Russia’s propaganda theory. The comments were:

  • The conflict in Ukraine is a consequence of NATO’s expansion in Eastern Europe, and
  • The main reason for the latest food and energy crises is Russia’s use of restrictions.

More than 70 % of poll respondents responded to the question, saying they believed the claims to be accurate with certainty.

These claims are not true, but they are frequently used by Moscow to improve its own corporate interests, according to several fact-checking organizations.

Foreign stories were more controversial and revealed the most egregious regional differences. When asked about the speech,” If a war breaks out in Taiwan, it would be the United States ‘ problem”, only 3 in 10 Zambians said that it was real, compared with 6 in 10 Africans.

When we examined this speech,” European causes organized anti-government protests in Hong Kong in 2019,” differences between nations were significantly smaller.

More than 50 % of people in South Africa and Ethiopia found this to be real, which is only true.

Screenshot

Looking at the wider political position in each nation at the time the survey was conducted is one way to view these distinctions.

Russian narratives found significant support in South Africa despite Russia Today (RT ) being blocked on the satellite television service provider DStv in March 2022. This was likely influenced by the country’s participation in the BRICS ( Brazil, Russia, India, China South Africa ) gathering, and the president’s unwillingness to part with the West in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia also draws on “memory politics” by reminding American consumers of its previous support for American independence movements, such as the African National Congress, to raise support for its battle on Ukraine.

South Africa appears to have shifted from its neutrality toward greater assistance for China and Russia.

By opening a commission in Johannesburg, the Russian media intends to capitalize on this mood.

In comparison, Zambia and Angola displayed more weight to international tales. Angola’s traditional ties with Russia, dating back to the Cold War, did not translate into solid support for Russian narratives, probably due to the country’s continued efforts to expand its international partnerships.

Anti-US attitude a major factor

In Ethiopia, a key drivers of the benefits appears to be anti-US attitude. We found that 33 % of Ethiopians believed the US to be an “enemy” ( compared to 4 % in Angola or 8 % in Zambia ), and 65 % thought that US influence in their country was negative ( compared to 17 % in Angola or 22 % in Zambia ).

Anti-US speech has been especially prevalent in African internet and the political landscape in common in recent years, especially after Washington ‘s&nbsp, censure of the conflict in Tigray.

We came to the conclusion that anti-US mood was the most reliable indicator of believing Russian and Chinese proper narratives after considering various possible factors.

In other words, those who perceived the US negatively were much more likely to accept these accounts as accurate.

Additionally, we discovered that those who watched Russian or Chinese advertising did not have an impact on those who supported these stories. This implies that those who regularly watched Chinese and Russian media were not more likely to believe these stories than those who did n’t.

China and Russia have made significant investments in continent-wide distribution of their media content, but both countries ‘ people and their understanding of their messages are unmet.

Complex image

Our research reveals the subtle and intricate ways in which public opinion spreads throughout Africa. Deception does not work in a vacuum. It is influenced by regional social landscapes, historical ties, and economic dependence.

So, counterstrategies should place an emphasis on fostering positive behaviour and strengthening political ties in order to lessen the vulnerability to disinformation narratives.

Herman Wasserman is a professor and chair of Stellenbosch University’s Department of Journalism. Dani Madrid-Morales is a teacher in media and international communication. Nanyang Technological University‘s associate professor of communication and information is Saifuddin Ahmed.

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The case for Sheikh Hasina’s extradition from India – Asia Times

Sheikh Hasina, the former prime minister of Bangladesh, fled to India in earlier August after being forced to step down by a large revolt. Her departure came after days of unrest that resulted in the deaths of nearly 650 people and numerous more injuries.

Since then, at least 94 legal situations have been lodged against Hasina and her case users, fans and assistants. The claims against them range from murder, rape, enforced disappearance and violence, to crimes against humanity and genocide.

Authorities do have the authority to hold a test in Hasina’s presence. However, this is unlikely to be successful because there will be questions about credited process, justice, and the purpose of the test. At the same time, implementing the judge’s purchases may be difficult if Hasina not been present.

But, there have been requests to surrender her to a test for the acts that took place under her command since the time she fled Bangladesh. However, it’s still a mystery whether India did arrest her if Bangladesh requested her abduction.

Bangladesh can, in theory, demand the transfer of Hasina from India. An abduction treaty was signed between New Delhi and Dhaka in 2013 that was later amended to make things simpler.

Both nations were excited to see a treaty of this nature. Two of the criminals involved in the 1975 death of Hasina’s father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who was also the second leader of Bangladesh, were at the moment hiding in India. Hasina’s state wanted to surrender the gentlemen to Bangladesh for implementation.

Some states, like Canada, refuse to apprehend captives if there is a chance that they will be executed. But, because India still has the death penalty, abduction was granted regardless of whether the prisoners were scheduled to receive execution upon their return. In 2020, the two gentlemen were handed over to Bangladesh.

India, on the other hand, sought the transfer of Anup Chetia, the general director of the banned United Liberation Front of Assam violent business. Chetia, who had spent 18 years in prison in Dhaka, was returned to India in 2015.

Just crimes that are punishable by a minimum of one time in prison can be extradited acts, according to the agreement. The offense had been punished in both places. Hasina can be extradited on these grounds because the charges against her are prosecuted in India, and the punishments she allegedly underwent are even severe.

The treaty’s content 10 makes it even simpler for the requesting state. It states that a court of law arrest warrant may suffice for the repatriation of the offender without providing any specific material evidence against the criminal. That being said, Hasina is not currently on an arrest warrant for her.

Never a simple task

However, the convention itself also contains many provisions that may enable India to fail an attractiveness for Hasina’s repatriation. It may, for instance, decline to transfer her on the grounds that the acts are political in nature.

It is accepted that political or military acts will not be eligible for abduction. This is justified because states must maintain their social unrest while also safeguarding a state’s right to offer political refugees asylum.

The convention does dictate that an effort to commit murder, murder, kidnap, false incarceration or incitement to murder may not be regarded as a social offense. And the majority of the charges brought against Hasina thus much fall under these umbrella terms.

Even so, the agreement guarantees that a ask may still be rejected if Indian courts find that the accusation was made in the interests of justice. If Hasina is suspected of facing political oppression, unfair trials, or cruel therapy upon her return to Bangladesh, judges may reject extradition.

This will not be simple for Bengal to refute. Some of the Hasina’s government officials who have been detained in recent weeks were allegedly physically assaulted by bystanders in court, and apparently did not have the option of having their cases represented by a lawyer.

There are also reports that a number of death circumstances were connected to out of anger and resentment. When it’s unclear whether the real criminals have been charged or no, some individuals, including batsman Shakib Al Hasan and ousted senator Shakib Al Hasan, have been charged as conspirators or abettors.

As a result, there are plenty of problems over Hasina’s surveillance and the justice of any trial should she be returned to Bangladesh.

Protesters gather in front of a picture of Sheikh Hasina that has been covered in red paint.
Bangladeshi demonstrators demanding Sheikh Hasina step down. Photo: MDSABBIR / Shutterstock via The Talk

If Hasina’s health is not guaranteed, then there is a possibility she may be granted political asylum in India or abroad. Asylum may make it pointless to discuss her extradition because those who have refugee status may be extradited did lose their minds. Hasina has previously properly sought political hospital from India following the death of her father.

However, her remain in India has changed over the years. The time authorities in Bangladesh has revoked political documents, including Hasina’s.

She is now apparently trying to request asylum in one of the UK, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia or Finland. But, her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, has told the media that Hasina has not yet sought hospital anywhere and will “certainly get up” to Bangladesh when votes are declared.

The convention itself don’t always appoint an extraditioner. In practice, it basically provides a legal model for mutual assistance. Legitimate claims may be more important than political discussions and the political will of both governments in making the final decision.

Raisul Islam Sourav is PhD Member in lawful analysis, University of Galway

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Israel’s economy battered and bruised by 11 months of war – Asia Times

Israel is now facing its biggest financial challenge in a long time after 11 times of war. According to data, Israel’s economy is experiencing the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD )’s wealthiest nation’s economy’s slowest contraction.

Its GDP contracted by 4.1 % in the months after the October 7 Hamas-led problems. And the slump continued into 2024, falling by an additional 1.1 % and 1.4 % in the first two rooms.

A nationwide attack on September 1 that, albeit for a brief period of time, brought the nation’s economy to a halt in the midst of popular public outcry over the government’s handling of the war will not have helped this situation.

A graph showing the quarterly GDP growth for several OECD countries alongside the OECD average.
A graph illustrating the OECD average and the monthly GDP growth of various OECD nations. Between October and December 2023, Israel experiences the most severe fluctuation. Amr Saber Algarhi &amp, Konstantinos Lagos / OECD, CC BY-ND

Israel’s financial challenges, of training, pale in comparison to the total destruction of the market in Gaza. But the protracted war is also hurting Zionist finances, company investments and consumer confidence.

Prior to the start of the war, Israel’s business was rapidly expanding, mainly thanks to its technology sector. The country’s annual GDP per capita rose by 6.8 % in 2021 and 4.8 % in 2022, much more than in most Western countries.

But things have since changed significantly. In its July 2024 forecast, the Bank of Israel revised its growth predictions to 1.5 % for 2024, down from the 2.8 % it had predicted earlier in the year.

The Bank of Israel has predicted that the battle’s price may reach US$ 67 billion by 2025 as the battle in Gaza continues to rage on and the Hezbollah conflict growing in Lebanon. Even with a$ 14.5 billion military aid package from the US, Israel’s finances may not be enough to cover these expenses.

Israel will have to make difficult decisions regarding how to manage its assets. It may, for example, need to cut spending in some regions of the business or take on more debt. In the future, more loans will increase the amount of money borrowed and make it more expensive to support.

Due to the country’s deteriorating governmental position, major credit rating organizations have been asked to lower Israel’s position. In August, Fitch cut Israel’s credit score from A to A on the grounds that a rise in its military spending had resulted in a rise in the fiscal deficit to 7.8 % of GDP in 2024, an increase from 4.1 % the previous year.

Additionally, it has the potential to undermine Israel’s ability to carry out its latest defense strategy. Boots on the ground, advanced weapons, and regular logistical support are necessary for this technique, which involves long-range operations in Gaza in an effort to annihilate Hamas. All of these things cost a lot financially.

A figure showing how Israel's military expenditure compares to other countries in the Middle East.
Israel’s military spending has regularly been the Middle East region’s highest. Amr Saber Alarhi &amp, Konstantinos Lagos / SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, CC BY-NC-ND

Apart from economic indicators, the conflict has had a tremendous impact on certain sectors of Israel’s market. The construction market, for instance, slowed down by almost a fourth in the first two months of the war. Additionally, crops has suffered a quarter-percentage decline in some industries.

At the start of the war, about 360, 000 conscripts were called up, but many of them have since returned house. More than 120 000 Israelis have been forced to leave their homes in frontier regions. Additionally, since the October 7 strikes, 140 000 Palestinians from the West Bank have been denied entry to Israel.

The Jewish government has attempted to bridge the gap by bringing in staff from Sri Lanka and India. However, some important work are bound to remain empty.

It is estimated that up to 60, 000 Jewish companies may have to close in 2024 according to staff shortages, supply chain disruptions and waning business confidence, while some companies are postponing new jobs.

Tourism, although certainly a crucial part of Israel’s market, has also been greatly affected. Tourist bookings have drastically decreased since the start of the war, with one in ten resorts across the nation now facing the possibility of closing down.

How this conflict impacts the place as a whole

The war does had battered Israel’s business. However, the impact has been much worse for the Arab business, and it will take decades to recover.

Some Palestinians who reside in the West Bank have lost their jobs in Israel. The Palestinian Authority is now in short supply of cash as a result of Israel’s determination to reduce the majority of its revenue revenue collected by Palestinians.

Palestinian workers queuing in a line in front of a fence.
Palestinian workers entering Israel for job in September 2023. Anas-Mohammed / Shutterstock via The Talk

Many Palestinians today rely on help because trade in Gaza has stopped. While simultaneously, essential equipment and communication programs have been destroyed and shut down.

The effects of the conflict extend far beyond Israel and Palestine. In April, the International Monetary Fund said it expected rise in the Middle East to become “lackluster” in 2024, at only 2.6 %. The conflict in Gaza and the possibility of a full-fledged local fight were both cited as the causes.

Economic destruction has been caused by a recent uprising in crime in Gaza, which has already caused even more damage. Israel’s assault of Gaza in 2008, for instance, pushed up the price of petrol by roughly 8 % and caused issue for businesses all over the world.

Israel’s battle in Gaza, which is quickly approaching its second anniversary, is taking a big financial toll. Just a permanent peace can repair the damage and open the door for healing in Israel, Palestine, and the region as a whole.

Amr Saber Algarhi is senior lecturer in finance, Sheffield Hallam University and Konstantinos Lagos, top teacher in Business and Economics, Sheffield Hallam University

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