No assurances for Taiwan under Trump 2.0 – Asia Times

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The nomination of China hawks like Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, and Elbridge Colby for top leadership positions by the incoming Trump 2.0 administration seems to have good things for Taiwan. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Sydney Morning Herald&nbsp, journalist Lisa Visentin is among those who&nbsp, conclude&nbsp, that” Trump has sent an early information to Beijing that Washington is doubtful to leave Taiwan”. A recent&nbsp, Taipei Times&nbsp, editorial&nbsp, exulted&nbsp, that the content of Trump’s proposed management team “indicates that the US would maintain its strong support for Taiwan”.

Alas, the reality is more complicated. Washington is currently anticipating wet climate on two sides in Taiwan.

The first is a requirement that Taiwan raise its defence spending from its current 2.5 % of GDP. Trump&nbsp, said&nbsp, the number may be 10 %. Lest we dismiss that as everyday Trumpian rhetoric, Colby, the recently appointed secretary of defense for plan, has &nbsp, said&nbsp, the same thing.

A resumptuous US-China trade war, which would directly harm Taiwan among different US friends by stifling China’s earnings from the US market and therefore stifling China’s ability to buy the goods from other Asia-Pacific nations, is the next anticipated tsunami.

But there’s more. Trump 2.0 is more likely than any US state since the Korean War to end US support for an automatic Taiwan despite the presence of China hawks in the Oval Office.

The US’s present support for Taiwan times up to 1950. In 1949, the Chiang Kai-shek state and the Republic of China under Mao Zedong’s control had taken control of mainland China, forcing the Republic of China state and its remaining troops to relocastate Taiwan. &nbsp,

Beijing planned to end the Chinese Civil War by attempting to win Taiwan in the fall of 1950 after Washington’s assurance had declined. However, the Korean War’s onset in June of that year persuaded US President Harry Truman to place the US Navy to stop PRC troops from crossing the Taiwan Strait. Thereafter, Taiwan became a US territory.

Fast forward to the current, and for a while, there are several reasons why once-reliable US assistance immediately seems unsure.

Second, Trump rejects the bipartisan isolationist perspective that has dominated US foreign policy since the end of World War II. The US’s great strategy has long allowed Taiwan to choose its own global social destiny.

Taiwan turned into a successful Chinese progressive democracy, exemplifying the kind of change that Washington promotes globally as its original Leninist government effectively implemented land reform and later replaced it with political liberalization. This project is based on America’s self-image, but it also reflects a well-known theory that democracy promotes harmony because democratic governments have a tendency to avoid conflict. &nbsp,

An independent Taiwan also aids in establishing the democratic social order that is supported by the US in Asia. &nbsp, As for, acquiescing to a hostile PRC invasion of Taiwan may diminish, perhaps fatally, America’s placement of corporate leadership in the Asia-Pacific area. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Trump’s thinking about Taiwan, but, is not relatively based on intellectual or strategic views that make Taiwan’s independence beneficial to the United States.

Trump rather emphasizes&nbsp his hatred toward Taiwan for allegedly stealing semiconductor production from the US and for failing to pay for US military protection, despite the US-Taiwan Relations Act’s prohibition against military defending Taiwan and Taiwan’s responsibility to pay for the weaponry the US provides. &nbsp,

On four times, Biden&nbsp, said&nbsp, officially he would give US forces to protect Taiwan in the event of a PRC harm. Trump, in contrast, frequently expresses reluctance to defend Taiwan because it is too little, too near to China, and unimportant in comparison to that country. On the other hand, Trump touts his regard for and connection with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and has &nbsp, also admitted&nbsp, to taking guidance from Xi.

Another reason to doubt whether the US will continue to support an intelligent Taiwan is that Trump’s China bird advisors does not really dictate US plan. True, Trump allowed his team to impose a tougher US position on China during his first word.

They altered the language of important US policy statements to present China as an antagonistic state determined to stifle America’s rise to worldwide influence. According to a technique report released by the incoming Trump presidency in January 2021, the US has a strong curiosity in preventing the PRC from seizing Taiwan. The Uyghur Muslim minority’s harassment was also referred to as “genocide” in the previous Trump White House.

Trump, but, also showed that he was willing to compromise corporate objectives in the search for a bilateral trade agreement with Beijing. Trump&nbsp, decided&nbsp, to cut US sanctions against Chinese communications large ZTE as a favour to Xi in 2018. He also&nbsp, reportedly&nbsp, told Xi he endorsed China’s severe cure of Uyghurs.

However, the anti-China, pro-Taiwan eagles in the Trump 2.0 management may not last long. The turnover rate among senior officers was incredibly high during Trump’s first name. &nbsp,

Third, the effect of other top advisors in the incoming Trump presidency less friendly toward Taiwan, quite as mega-billionaire Elon Musk and near-billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy, may outweigh the influence of the pro-Taiwan advisors. &nbsp,

Ramaswamy has &nbsp, said&nbsp, Taiwan matters to the United States only because it makes advanced semiconductors and that after ramping up its own chip production, America should stop protecting Taiwan. Meanwhile, Musk is thoroughly compromised by his business interests in China, where his most profitable Tesla factory is located. &nbsp,

Musk has &nbsp, called&nbsp, himself “kind of pro-China” .&nbsp, He takes the PRC government’s position that Taiwan is part of China, equating Taiwan’s relationship to the PRC with the US federal government’s relationship to the US state of Hawaii.

Musk wants Taipei to comply with Beijing’s demands to prevent a cross-strait conflict that would disrupt the supply chains Musk’s businesses rely on. Ramaswamy and Musk can be expected to place a higher value on avoiding a US war with China in their advice to Trump as opposed to preserving Taiwan’s democracy.

Or, there’s a chance that the China hawks will vehemently despise Taiwan because of how much they control US policy in Asia. Beijing is deeply concerned that US efforts to prevent Taiwan from being forcibly annexed by the PRC serve as a cover for an alleged American plot to slash the country into pieces to secure Taiwan’s independence. &nbsp,

Some China hawks are known to engage in elaborate symbolic gestures intended to disparage or humiliate China, as if this was based on the idea that the Chinese government would consent if the US showed signs of strength and commitment. Then-Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022 was one such example.

China responded by stepping up rather than by ceasing to expand and enhance the size and standard of its military exercises close to Taiwan. US Indo-Pacific commander Admiral Samuel Paparo&nbsp, observed&nbsp, that in 2024 he” saw the most rehearsal and the most joint exercises from the People’s Republic of China that I’d ever seen” .&nbsp,

US supporters of Taiwan should aim for policies that, ideally without stoking hysteria in Beijing, actually improve Taiwan’s security and defensibility. If completely empowered, the China hawks might not have the restraint to stay on this prudent middle path, which is best for Taiwan’s well-being.

There is also a non-trivial possibility that Trump and Xi could reach a mega-deal to reset US-China relations. By purchasing tens of billions of dollars worth of additional US products, Beijing would promise to redress China’s enormous trade surplus with the US, which Trump has discussed most. This would be a rehash of the” Phase One” trade agreement that was broken just before the Covid pandemic began. &nbsp,

In addition, China would reassure Trump that trade between China and the US would continue to be free in an East Asian nation. In return, Trump would abandon US strategic leadership in Asia. He already has a strong belief that the costs of US leadership abroad outweigh the advantages that regular Americans can expect. &nbsp,

Washington would cease selling arms to Taiwan as part of this restrenchment and give up its alliances and military installations on the western rim of the Pacific. Of course, many members of the US Congress would object. However, as the Trump phenomenon has demonstrated, we shouldn’t underestimate how much Republican Party politicians will give up their core beliefs and principles in order to maintain Trump’s favor. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Although America has never been tougher on China, this occurs amidst an anti-internationalism that is part of Trump’s” Make America Great Again” package. Therefore, Taiwan’s enduring fear of being snuffed out by America is more relevant than ever. Koreans have a tradition of describing their nation as a” shrimp among whales.”

Increasingly, that metaphor applies at least as well to Taiwan, with a potentially fickle US as one of the whales.

Denny Roy is Senior Fellow at the East-West Center, Honolulu

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Biden fires grand finale chip war salvo at China – Asia Times

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The Biden administration announced a deal exploration into Chinese tradition semiconductors, which generally refer to 28 millimeter or higher chips, to defend America’s chip-making business. &nbsp,

According to a fact sheet released by the White House on Monday ( December 23 ), the Office of the US Trade Representative will launch a Section 301 investigation to examine the People’s Republic of China ( PRC )’s ( PRC ) plan to target foundational semiconductors or mature node chips for dominance and the impact on the US economy. &nbsp,

The USTR probe will protect Chinese semiconductors integrated as components into upstream products for vital industries like defense, mechanical, medical devices, aerospace, telecommunications, and power generation and the electric grid. &nbsp,

It will also examine whether the impact of China’s actions, policies, and methods on the production of silicone carbide materials ( or other chips used as inputs to semiconductor fabrication ) contributes to any unjustifiableness, discrimination, or burden or restraint on US commerce.

US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, the Biden-Harris Administration’s official, praised the investigation as” a powerful tool for standing up for American workers and firms, strengthening the resilience of important supply stores, and supporting unmatched investment in this sector.”

The Biden presidency was reportedly preparing to investigate China’s identity cards, according to a December 16 article in The New York Times. According to the report, the investigation does take at least six months to complete, so the incoming Trump leadership will be in charge of making that decision.

The USTR’s upcoming tradition chip sensor was criticized by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce (MC) on Monday.

Through the Device and Science Act, a MoC director claimed that the US part has given its chip business “heavy incentives.” The US accuses China of having so-called non-market techniques and exaggerates the risk of the Chinese chip industry, noting that its businesses account for nearly half of the global chip industry.

Washington should take into account the fact that American chips are imported from China much more than American chips are.

” The Biden administration wants to create a fine net to contain China’s chip sector”, Lai Jiaqi, a columnist at Guancha.cn, said in a recent article. &nbsp,

” In the past, the US government’s curbs against China’s chip industry were focusing on the ban of the shipment of advanced US chips”, Lai said. China is gradually increasing its investments in the production of its own mature chips as the US tightens its regulations.

According to the author, it’s unlikely that there will be an oversupply of Chinese mature chips in the next two to three years, according to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS), a think tank based in Washington.

Overcapacity concerns

The three reasons why overcapacity concerns are either exaggerated or misunderstood as coming from China are described in the CSIS report:

  1. The purpose of Chinese companies expanding their capacity is to primarily supply domestic demand. China still imports the majority of its domestic semiconductor consumption requirements.
  2. Domestic demand in China is still high and will increase significantly through 2030. Domestic chip capacity will be able to meet about 90 % of domestic demand by 2030, compared to 37 % in 2020, assuming all of the previously announced factories in China are finished and operational by 2030.
  3. For some consumer electronics applications, Chinese foundries ‘ products are becoming more expensive, but they are still far less reliable for end-use applications like cars. Foreign companies will continue to dominate the Chinese market.

The White House announced on Monday that it would strengthen federal supply chain security in addition to looking into Chinese legacy chips by forbidding executive federal agencies from purchasing or obtaining products or services that include chips from specific Chinese factories and other relevant entities. &nbsp,

Additionally, it added that it will work with its international partners to improve cooperation in semiconductor supply chains and address shared concerns about China’s alleged unfair practices.

CHIPS for America

The Biden administration has introduced a number of new measures to combat China’s chip sector ahead of Republican President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

Following two previous rounds in October 2021 and 2022, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security ( BIS ) released a third package of chip export regulations against China on December 2. &nbsp,

Additionally, the BIS added 140 Chinese chip manufacturers and suppliers to its” Entity List,” as well as new export controls for 24 different types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, three different software tools for creating or producing semiconductors, and high-bandwidth memory ( HBM ) chips. &nbsp,

To determine the best ways to encourage government contractors, especially those with commercial IT products and services, to increase their use of domestically produced chips, the US Office of Management and Budget ( OMB) released a Request for Information ( RFI ) on December 10.

The White House released its first-ever Quadrennial Supply Chain Review on December 19 to provide an in-depth analysis of the nation’s crucial supply chains, recommendations for improvement over the past four years, and recommendations for further improvements to US resilience in the future. &nbsp,

Additionally, US President Biden has accelerated the pace of funding qualified chipmakers for the construction of foundries. &nbsp,

According to the government, the CHIPS for America initiative has so far provided over US$ 26 billion in incentives to boost domestic production of semiconductors and their supply chains. It said this made America home to all five of the world’s leading-edge logic and memory providers, while no other economy has more than two. &nbsp,

‘ A fool’s errand’

Four Chinese industry organizations demanded their members not to purchase American legacy semiconductors due to” safety” concerns after the US announced new export controls to prohibit the shipping of high-end US chips to China on December 2. &nbsp,

The Internet Society of China, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the China Association of Communications Enterprises, and the China Association of Semiconductor Industry Association are just a few of the industry groups. &nbsp,

Concluding the Biden administration’s four-year efforts to boost the US chip sector, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told the Wall Street Journal on December 21 that” trying to hold China back is a fool’s errand”.

She claimed that China’s export controls were only” speed bumps” and could not slow China’s development of its own semiconductor capabilities. She claimed that the only way for the US to win the chip war is to out-innovate China and stay ahead of it. &nbsp,

Liu Lanxun, a military columnist from Hubei, claimed that Raimondo finally admitted at the conclusion of her term that the US chip ban against China is a waste of time. However, he claimed that because China is also investing heavily in its chip industry, the US might not always succeed in the end.

Yong Jian contributes to Asia Times. He is a Chinese journalist who specializes in Chinese technology, economy and politics.

Read more about the anti-US chips campaign by China-based business groups.

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‘Trumpflation’ already wreaking havoc on Bank of Japan – Asia Times

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Before it even arrives, the Bank of Japan has a very common feud with Donald Trump’s 2.0 White House.

Tokyo is now putting the brakes on the following Trump presidency, which will take place in four weeks. Governor Kazuo Ueda is leading Asia’s second-largest business toward the total unfamiliar at BOJ office in Tokyo, where it is more evident.

Certainly, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may dispute this classification. However, Ueda is securely in the driver’s seat with approval levels in the 20s and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party rarely hanging on to power.

The issue is figuring out when Trump will visit the White House on January 20. Door No. 1 is contextual Trump, ready to negotiate a “grand deal” business cope with China and perhaps others. Door No. Second: a” Tax Man” period that sparks trade wars that no one has seen before.

This doubt explains why Ueda’s plan board kept rates unchanged next year. And why it’s probably not even a question to consider a price trek for January. The BOJ stated in a speech last week that “uncertainty persists regarding the country’s economy and rates.”

Local problems are bad much. Team Ishiba is scrambling to implement innovative fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand as Chinese growth declines. Not exactly a good place for the BOJ to raise prices.

China’s economic downturn is its own conundrum. Tokyo is deeply alarmed by the recession that Asia’s biggest sector exports. For years, Japan was accused of generating more challenges than development. Then it’s China, by much Japan’s leading export market.

India fears about the mix of Trump’s affected trade conflict and domestic plans to arrest millions of illegal immigrant workers. The great possibilities this will make what industry observers have coined” Trumpflation” has Ueda’s BOJ in a spin.

That includes legislators from European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde to Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong.

” In Japan, industrial production likely fell 3 % in November from October”, says Stefan Angrick, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. ” Business forecasts for November have looked bad, with companies pointing to falling production across machinery, autos and technology”.

The bigger issue is income. The enthusiasm over the previous year’s wage negotiations for the spring has long since waned. The union workers ‘ biggest increases in 33 years didn’t stop the virtuous cycle of inflated salaries and increased use that many had hoped for. As 2024 begins, inflation-adjusted give is smooth.

Chinese CEOs could be prevented from raising pay in the coming year by competing concerns about China’s decline and Trump’s bombardment of tariffs. This danger is making the BOJ’s price increase timeline more challenging.

Previously, economists thought a December price climb was a done deal. Finally, a group of BOJ officials stepped up to the microphone to announce that there would be no tightening. Though” Trump business” challenges weren’t highlighted particularly, they were written between the lines in bold font.

With the Trump threat to impose$ 60 transfer taxes on Chinese goods, Japan would be at the middle of the collateral damage area. Any significant decline in the biggest customer for Japan had destroy it in 2025.

Japan Inc concerns, also, that Trump may teach his tariffs its approach. Trump has refused Ishiba’s noted many demands for a pre-inauguration meet. Due to this, Japan is concerned that Trump doesn’t view Ishiba as a crucial mate in the same way that he did Shinzo Abe, the prime minister for 2020.

And that the 100 % taxes Trump plans for Mexico-made trucks might remain aimed next at Toyota, Honda and Nissan. That may hinder the former two businesses ‘ efforts to combine to raise global market share.

For Ueda’s BOJ, dread must be the experience of the time. Ueda dragged his legs on raising prices to 0.2 %, where it is now, in the 15 weeks after taking the helm in April 2023. Despite robust economic growth and the favorable environment for higher Asian rates, this is true.

Having squandered that window of opportunity, Ueda today finds himself on the defense. With Ishiba’s gathering on the run, social pressure against price hikes is definitely mounting. The LDP’s current reliance on criticism party help to hold onto power is not all that helpful.

On the other side, there’s a real danger of” Trumpflation” that lingers back Japan’s manner. As Trump introduces laws that appear to be sure to increase global sales pressures, the threat has been brought up by economists, including Nobel prize Paul Krugman.

Trump’s taxes “would lead to a significant increase in consumer prices in the US.” We estimate that the proposed tariff increases would increase core PCE prices by 0.9 % if implemented using our rule of thumb, which states that every 1[percentage point ] increase in the effective tariff rate would raise core PCE prices by 0.1 %.

Or even more if Trump makes good on capturing millions of undocumented workers, thereby tightening US workers markets even more.

The author of” The Contest for Japan’s Economic Future,” Richard Katz, claims that domestic price trends, along with Trumpflation and a weaker yen, are putting the BOJ at a disadvantage. The BOJ is therefore holding off until more proof is available.

Ueda’s plan board “faces a dilemma”, Katz says. Objectives of higher prices in Japan typically lead to the BOJ raising interest rates. That would not only filter the level gap, but also help to counteract the yen’s yen’s upward pressure, and also help to combat inflation.

Katz continues, adding that” for the most part, the weaker yen and other components have been reducing true wages and, consequently, customer paying for the past five years. That prevents economic development, and the BOJ must maintain low interest rates to maintain afloat the business.

Katz adds that it’s even more concerning how and when Trump may put the laws he campaigned and won on into practice.

It’s unclear whether the benefits in minimum wage increases that employers granted this year will be repeated following year on the local Japan entrance. Because of the magnitude of imported inflation, it’s unclear whether minimum increases will result in higher real wages.

All of this is putting pressure on the renminbi. Last year, Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said he was “deeply” concerned about the dollar’s new fall.

Katz argues that the BOJ’s entire prices plan depends on maintaining minimum wage increases at 3 % annually in the hopes that this will result in increases in real income. It will take many months to see the 2025 fiscal pay picture. Therefore, at least for this month, the BOJ is adopting a wait-and-see attitude”.

Daisuke Karakama, general business analyst at Mizuho Bank, says” I’m not certain if yen failure may be contained until March”. He adds that there’s” no assurance” the yen didn’t break through 160 to the money by January.

Trump Japan may encounter this in January, but there is no guarantee. And the degree of the” Trumpflation” that might follow.

Following William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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YouTube populists driving South Korea’s political instability – Asia Times

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In the past three weeks, South Korea has experienced a brief period of military rules, its abrupt reform, and Yoon Suk Yeol’s senate.

One underrated driver of the current crisis is the increase of YouTube-based agitators, activists and influencers, who both profit from and power a new brand of populism. South Korea has a severe impact, but the pattern is widespread.

An exceedingly online electorate

In South Korea’s 2022 poll, Yoon trailed his opposition for much of the plan. His intense populist policies attracted some help, but he appeared to be going to fail.

Then he discovered a novel district: a group of passionate young people who are passionate about abolition of the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family. These protestors used platforms like YouTube and others to transmit their ideas.

This demographic, in addition to traditional liberal voters, allowed Yoon to get a close election and retain control of South Korea’s most potent social position. The female department was then formally overthrown, and he claimed architectural discrimination was” a thing of the past.”

Yoon issued arrest warrants for a number of his alleged political competitors after gaining strength. Among these was Kim Eo-Jun, a vital and aggressive YouTube blogger, and a controversial populist find tied to progressive politics. Kim’s regular videos send millions of active followers reports, guest appearances, and sleazy commentary.

We’ve come to terms with the notion that social media platforms influencing political processes by promoting specific content and spreading reports and analysis. However, the rising social acclaim of platform actors like Kim suggests that the impact is becoming more clear.

Populist systems

Social media platforms give access to a wide range of news and media producers, from established newspapers to separate commentators at the most extremes of the social spectrum. However, not all of the information gets similar interest.

Research indicates that fake news receives more loves and interactions than factual information, at least in South Korea. ” Real information” tends to collect dislikes and scorn.

More recent research from South Korea indicates that people may contempt political decisions or groups on platforms to find out conspiracy theories. Customers are also infamously primary against issues like women’s rights.

South Korea is just one of these issues. International trends exist in populist and controversial news and analysis.

Traditional news media’s reputation is declining, in part because of concerns that it is associated with prominent and elite figures. These concerns are frequently confirmed by social media influencers who are attempting to get the new view leaders.

Online celebrities are fantastic tools for populist politicians. They have personal contacts with their viewers, tend to suggest straightforward solutions, and often resist responsibilities and fact-checking.

Platforms are frequently more likely to persuade viewers to watch controversial and perhaps radical content, eroding otherwise more balanced content.

Nevertheless, these polarising numbers are not alone in these areas. Native editors and outsiders are adapting to systems while maintaining accuracy of information.

On YouTube, past major journalists, such as Australia’s Michael West and the British Phil Edwards, have amassed followings while blending private and informal articles with more standard journalism.

Non-journalists, such as Money &amp, Macro and the English Tom Nicholas, have expanded their control through adopting some main editorial techniques. With the help of their numerous viewers, they create articles that investigates, explores, and explains current affairs reports and evaluation.

These YouTube news influencers demonstrate how literary content can help the new news media ecosystem and draw huge audiences without relying on nationalist and polarizing content.

” Newsfluencers” producing news on systems, such as YouTube, tailor their information to the norms of the websites.

Newsfluencers and the upcoming

Newsmakers frequently shoot in casual settings rather than conventional models, and they establish a friendly rapport with their viewers. They utilize “authenticity”, going out of their approach to “avoid looking like smooth business media”.

Their many revenue channels include ads, sponsors, product and, most importantly, primary audience contributions. These efforts may be made through members or through third-party programs like Patreon and Substack.

Even major media outlets have begun to follow YouTuber guidelines, including ABC from Australia. The current matters radio If You’re Listening, for instance, significantly outperforms traditional written material because of its everyday style and focus on giving the visitors what it wants while being produced under the canopy of the national presenter.

YouTube channels in South Korea like VoiceOfSeoul use avenue reporting, casual talk-show panels, and investigative reporting to combine road coverage. Video and breaking news styles are combined on OhMyTV, which includes links for individual donations and sponsorships.

Legacy advertising like KBS maintains a strong following through TV and site websites like Naver at the same time. KBS’s traditional format, but, struggles to maintain viewership on these extremely popular platforms, where these innovative journalists have succeeded.

On YouTube and other related websites, there is a distinct place for news. But, it will need to adjust. The moment may be nearing when program journalism is essential for democracy, as the North Korean experience demonstrates.

Timothy Koskie is doctoral researcher, School of Media and Communications, University of Sydney and Christopher James Hall is PhD Researcher, Centre for Media Transition, University of Technology Sydney

The Conversation has republished this essay under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Long, hard road to de-weaponizing Syria’s economy – Asia Times

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The Arab government’s fall on December 8, 2024 marked a turning point for the Middle East. It is still unclear how the insurgent alliance, which is a diverse group of political and ideological organizations supported by local powers, quickly overpowered government forces.

However, it is obvious that the government’s downfall has been largely caused by the frequent social and economic decay, which has worsened every aspect of Arab life over the past 13 years.

The humanitarian crises that displaced the majority of Syria’s people and destroyed the government’s system also contributed to this deterioration as well as the weaponization of regional and global supply chains through economic restrictions.

Since 2011, numerous tides of sanctions have been imposed on Syria, aimed at draining state money and causing harm to nearly all of the nation’s economic and social activities. The outcomes of the steps were a general deindustrialization and a serious decline in the economy.

It’s still unclear whether Syria, a country of corporate global importance, is on the verge of lasting peace or will experience another prolonged period of instability.

The origins of turmoil

When the Arab Revolution started in 2011, Syria was on a fairly good financial trajectory. Poverty was at about 8 % and the middle class formed about 60 % of the community.

But, economical developments were mostly concentrated in urban facilities, while remote areas — home to most Syrians — lacked social and economic system.

The most attractive business activities in Syria were dominated by government elites, despite the growth of small and medium-sized businesses. Common institutions were rife with corruption and government.

This disparity led to anger, and the rural community eventually emerged as a driving force behind the start of the Arab Revolution. In the end, a series of events that culminated in a difficult international proxy war were the product of the revolution.

On both sides, some people were imprisoned or disappeared, and many others fled to neighboring states or sought shelter in Europe.

The position gotten worse as the battle wore on. In 2024, the United Nations described the Palestinian issue as “one of the country’s most complex situations”. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians feared losing their lives in locations all over the world.

Syria’s economic decline

Since 2011, Syria’s GDP has fallen by 87 %, its currency has lost more than 99 % of its value, and its inflation rate has soared above 300 % on basic consumer goods.

Arab corporations have fully been disconnected from regional and global supply chains as a result of the deteriorating economic and social problems in Syria, which have been made worse by increasingly strict restrictions. The majority of companies had to close, and just a small number were able to do so in neighboring nations.

Businesses that were able to succeed have turned into zombie companies, meaning they are no longer commercially viable but are being kept alive by using alternative sources, such as government subsidies.

Improper economic activity flourished, there were uncovered supply chains, and corruption was deeply entrenched within common organizations.

Rebel partnership rule

In the midst of the Arab government’s collapse, experts — though positive — remain wary about the country’s future.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ( HTS), a former branch of al-Qaida and the principal force in the rebel coalition, is the new ruler in Damascus. Units used to be competent to govern Idlib, a city in northwest Syria, but it now relys on Turkish assistance to provide simple services to its citizens.

Detractors argued the Units authorities in Idlib was “dictatorial” and “authoritarian” enough to flash rally earlier this year. Units requested on December 9 that the Idlib state, which is made up entirely of HTS unionists, continue to rule Syria until March 2025. Beyond that day, the organization has never made any changes.

Idlib, a remote, traditional province in Idlib, is a vastly different thing from managing a complicated nation like Syria. However, despite growing concerns about HTS’s one-party interim state, the party is likely to capitalise on the government’s pleasure at the death of Assad’s regime and the end of 13 years of civil war to create short-term political stability.

Another opposition groups, some with violent histories, appear to support HTS’s short-term program, seeking to discuss their role in the new political arrangement. However, early indications suggest Units, while adopting diverse speech, continues to adhere to an totalitarian and authoritarian style of governance.

Challenges ahead

HTS’s key backers, Turkey and Qatar, will likely provide financial aid and funds to boost public opinion in the short term. However, long-term political stability in Syria hinges on sustained public support, which is deeply tied to the country’s economic situation. The new rulers in Damascus must tackle the difficult task of reviving the economy.

The de-weaponization of regional and global supply chains, which includes more than removing Syria’s economic sanctions, is a necessary prerequisite for the revival of the country’s economy. It requires revitalizing small and medium-sized businesses and rebuilding public organizations that can support regional and global supply chains.

Small and medium-sized businesses and the middle class have been destroyed over the course of 13 years of civil war, which is easier said than done. Public and private organizations in Syria have already gone through the zombification process, relying heavily on aid to survive.

Zombie firms typically exhibit sub-optimal production performance, low innovation and a negative impact on economic activity. In this context, it’s likely that local organizations are unable to participate in and/or strengthen regional and global value chains. Establishing a robust innovation ecosystem and effective domestic supply chain governance will be necessary to restore these capabilities.

Early signs point to HTS’s desire to rule both social and economic activities in favor of its loyalists. Such an approach risks recreating an Islamic version of Assad’s economic governance, long characterized by a state-directed economy, capital controls and cronyism. Important regional players, Arab nations, and international players have already expressed concerns about working with Syria’s economy under the new Islamic regime.

Throughout the past 13 years, the Assad regime emphasized a winner-takes-all approach — a stance that HTS appears now to adopt. HTS has no choice but to abandon such a mindset in order to revive the Syrian economy and de-weaponize supply chains. Otherwise, the new ruler in Damascus will soon face the same challenges that led to the previous regime’s collapse.

Hassan Wafai is associate professor, Faculty of Management, Royal Roads University

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Trump tariffs as confrontation, deterrence and art of the deal – Asia Times

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The next day Donald Trump was US senator, he entered trade war with China and Europe. But despite his bombast and taxes, the US trade deficit did not improve.

In fact, it deteriorated from US$ 195 billion in the first quarter of 2017 to$ 260 billion in the same period of 2021.

A number of selected items were subject to the Trump tariffs, which were set at a maximum of 25 %. However, his current strategy seems to be that the US will impose tariffs of 10 % or 20 % on the majority of imported goods. Taxes in Canada and Mexico could be 25 %, and tariffs on Chinese goods could be 60 %.

This revision appears to be drastically different from the previous one. What are the potential cases for the US, the UK, and the world economy then?

Situation 1: Fight

Taking the president-elect’s expression to the email, if Trump stands his ground on across-the-board taxes one effect may be that the US market faces higher costs because of more expensive goods. The desire for US-produced goods may rise, which will probably result in higher domestic wages and a spiraling inflationary trend.

It is not difficult to imagine the US market accelerating. But, there are also opposing causes. Higher taxes and significant US investment are likely to cause the money to rise, resulting in imports becoming less expensive at the frontier before tariffs are imposed. This may eat away at prices.

The common sector’s claim of massive layoffs may also lessen the strain on the job market. Technology advancement, such as the press for autonomous vehicles, might also have an impact.

Lastly, easing environmental laws in the energy industry and potential serenity with Russia and perhaps even the Middle East could increase energy prices.

Scenario 2: The art of the bargain

Donald Trump’s interpersonal elections are well-known. This translates to being unburdened by the foreign regulations that have guided global industry since the Second World War.

This trend is further heightened by the election of Scott Bessent as treasury secretary. In his thoughts, taxes are a” sanctions resource” in wider political and economic game.

In trade for a wide range of possible concessions, the US good dangles somewhat attractive terms to get its business in a good scenario for potential trade relations with the rest of the world. These might include more options for US investment or exports, as well as a stronger political position and significant US investment.

Nevertheless, supply chains could undergo significant restructuring, with imports from the most effective nations being replaced by less efficient ones. This may lower the US’s trade deficit with China while reducing its trade imbalance with the EU, UK, Mexico, and Canada.

May these agreements been extended to China, and likely China accept them? is a looming question. If not, it is possible to see two economical alliances, one centered on China and the other centered on the US.

Scenario 3: Punishment

In a second – undoubtedly doubtful situation, the Chinese government may recognize US demands to adjust their bilateral deal imbalance in the belief that the moment is not yet right to challenge US supremacy.

Maintaining an export-led development design, building power, breaking into international markets and only sitting out the Trump administration may be China’s best plan. The Chinese authorities would have to consent to larger and more quickly purchased American-made goods and services than the previous arrangement between the Trump and Xi governments.

chess pieces and us and chinese currency
China will have to carefully consider its second step. Pla2na/Shutterstock

But what about the UK and Europe? UK export to the US may face a 20 % tariff, reducing profits and impacting on those British suppliers exporting goods the US buys, like medicine or equipment, for example. The UK will have to decide whether to fight and impose levies on US products. And if so, at what levels?

The UK’s objectives are not in conflict with the US, but what will happen then will depend on the demands the Trump administration makes. In the event that regional trade blocs emerge as a result of various nations ‘ hostile actions, there is already talk about whether the UK should choose the US or the EU.

Although there will be a significant difference, the consequences may be comparable for the EU. The EU as a whole has a similar-sized business to the US and its own business plan. The EU and US are thus strongly motivated to launch retribution and a business battle.

The UK may find it more difficult if the EU decides to proceed in that direction. In this situation, the English may later need to choose a part. It would have to decide between its unique partnership with the US and a more decline in trade with the EU, which is its closest marketplace. Or it would have to choose to become more politically and economically connected to the EU.

Unfortunately, when countries close their borders to business, they are also – apparently mistakenly – readying themselves for fight.

Agelos Delis is senior teacher in finance, Aston University and Sami Bensassi is audience in trade and development finance, University of Birmingham

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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South Korea entangled in a sticky and politicized legal web – Asia Times

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SEEOUL – With the death of dismissed President Yoon Suk Yeol weighing a pending Constitutional Court decision, there is a rise in rumors about potential new presidential primaries in South Korea.

South Koreans had cast ballots within 60 days to choose a new national leader if the judge upholds senate’s impeachment motion earlier this month and fully unseats Yoon in the weeks that come.

In that scenario, opposition Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung would be the apparent front-runner at 37 %, according to a Gallup Korea poll conducted between December 17-19 on “future political leader” preferences.

He’s trailed frequently by Han Dong-hoon, the lengthy displaced ruling People Power Party head, and Hong Joon-pyo, the colorful liberal mayor of Daegu, both of whom notched only 5 % on the same Gallup Korea surveys.

While South Korean politics are extremely uncertain, Yoon’s exceedingly good resignation would evidently pave the way to a new communist leader’s election.

New record items in that direction. Following Park Geun-hye’s abrupt demise, communist Moon Jae-in won a significant success in an earlier presidential election in May 2017.

But this time round, Yoon’s right-wing drop is no guarantee of Lee’s left-wing increase. Because criticism head Lee is grappling with legal issues that may pose considerable challenges for a possible presidential bid.

In November, Lee was convicted of violating election rules, a judgement that, if upheld by the Supreme Court before the next presidential election, did bar him from running.

Decisions in the second and third studies of cases of election violations must be rendered within three weeks of the past court statement, per the Public Official Election Act.

This means that the appeals court hearing Lee’s event must rule by November 15 after three months of the test judge’s ruling. The Supreme Court will have three more months to decide Lee’s ultimate fate if he chooses to charm that decision.

Although this timeframe has previously been casually observed, it is anticipated to be more strictly enforced in accordance with the Chief Supreme Court Justice’s order in September.

The Constitutional Court’s decision may cause a presidential vote to take place as early as April or May of next year if Yoon falls. As such, Lee is working to postpone his trial deliberations while maneuvering for Yoon’s court-ordered impeachment.

After two failed attempt, the appeals court eventually served Lee with a observe of receipt of the dispute information on December 18. He then has 20 days to file an appeal against his conviction for violating the election laws.

Lee moved houses, leaving his fresh tackle ambiguous, so the first shipment attempt failed. A second try was ineffective due to the patient’s presence.

Only after the judge dispatched an execution commander to hand-deliver the files to Lee’s Yeouido office, the latest effort was unsuccessful. Without the realize, the appeal process could not continue.

Lee is likewise facing a third-party corruption trial where the presidential hopeful is accused of asking North Korean underwear business Ssangbangwool Group to illegally cone US$ 8 million to North Korea in order to accomplish his planned trip to Pyongyang while serving as governor of Gyeonggi Province.

In connection with the situation, a former deputy government of Gyeonggi Province was given a nine-and-a-half year sentence. Lee was charged that same quarter, and he has since been refrained from doing so because he allegedly purposefully delayed court proceedings.

Lee’s legitimate group filed a motion to recuse courts from presiding in his case earlier this month. Lawyers have criticized the action, warning it may cause “unprecedented difficulties” to the test. An appeals court recently affirmed the ex-deputy president’s criminal conviction.

If Lee is found guilty of third-party corruption, it would severely tarnish his social standing and further tarnish his chances of winning the president, especially given that he is still tangled up in three additional criminal investigations.

While carefully prolonging his own lawful battles, Lee is bidding to quicken Yoon’s prosecution trial—and for good reason. Yoon’s resignation would open the door for him to take control of the ruling People Power Party because his communist enemy, Cho Kuk, is currently imprisoned and the People Power Party is completely disorganized.

Lee and his station are now desperate to fill three seats on the Constitutional Court that were formerly anxious. Now, the court is operating with a six-member board after three of the judges ‘ career expired in October.

With its current structure, it has decided to learn the president’s impeachment case, but Yoon will need to be removed by a majority vote. At least six of nine seats may be required for his resignation if the jury were entirely staffed. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Complicating matters for Lee is that Yoon’s appointee, Justice Cheong Hyungsik, is the presiding and commissioned justice to handle his impeachment case.

Two justices are considered liberal, three lean center-right and Cheong is firmly right-wing. If even one justice rejects parliament’s impeachment motion, Yoon, now suspended from his presidential duties, will be reinstated.

Thus, the three open seats that were put up for election by the parliament have become hot political bargaining chips. By sending two more liberal-leaning justices to the bench, the opposition hopes to boost the chances of Yoon’s removal from office.

The process, however, could take weeks and will require an acting president’s appointment.

To be fair, the opposition’s leader is also one who tactfully stifles his trial. Yoon and his legal team have also employed what critics perceive as a number of judicial “delay tactics” ( ).

Despite the president’s insistence on his innocence and public confidence in facing his legal battles head-on, he has reportedly refused to accept orders and documents from the Constitutional Court.

However, the court’s spokesperson announced on Monday that the trial would continue regardless, with the first hearing against the former public prosecutor general now scheduled for December 27.

South Korea has been jolted by a number of dramatic events in recent weeks, with likely more political shock and awe on the horizon, from Yoon’s short-lived martial law decree to his subsequent impeachment by parliament to Lee’s own colorful legal troubles.

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All the power in God-Emperor Elon Musk’s hands – Asia Times

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The US social structure was &nbsp, designed by its founders&nbsp, to have a system of checks and balances, so that no individual or organization would have total energy.

But that system was designed with only&nbsp, government&nbsp, leaders and&nbsp, government&nbsp, institutions in brain — although the founders did care about private individuals controlling the authorities, this wasn’t their primary focus, and they eventually ended up declining to throw institutions in place precisely to guard against financial power. &nbsp,

James Madison believed, for instance, that the governmental system of the US state was protection much against little cabals of rich oligarchs. In recent years, especially in the wake of the Supreme Court ‘s&nbsp, Citizens United&nbsp, choice, some have voiced concerns that the US has become an elite, where wealthy people are capable of buying power and influence — either by plan efforts, lobbying, or other means.

These issues came mostly from the liberal left, who&nbsp, generally claimed&nbsp, that the US has become an aristocracy. However, many on the right were also concerned about George Soros and other democratic entrepreneurs ‘ effect.

But the studies backing up the “oligarchy” state was &nbsp, very uneven and weak&nbsp, — in reality, most political researchers found that coverage in the US tends to connect strongly with the objectives of the center class. And common problem was vague and scattered — Americans will tell you that their financial program “unfairly favors the strong interests”, but this could mean something, and most Americans&nbsp, are no concerned&nbsp, about the prosperity of billionaires.

Yet in the past week, we have witnessed a single wealthy man making important decisions in real time regarding US national government policy. In order for the US federal government to spend money, it has to pass “appropriations” bills. There are always big fights over those bills, so sometimes they just pass a” continuing resolution” to keep spending going.

If the CR doesn’t pass, the government shuts down, and its employees— including the people in the US Military — stop getting paychecks. In a number of instances over the past three decades, the party in charge has threatened to refuse to pass a bill and impose austerity on the government, or worse, to exceed the “debt ceiling,” which prevents the government from borrowing money.

Elon Musk, president Trump’s most significant donor and political ally, and the owner of one of the largest social media networks, had a different take on the most recent CR. Musk&nbsp, launched an all-out attack&nbsp, on the resolution:

Musk, who&nbsp, spent more than US$ 250 million &nbsp, getting Trump elected, posted about his opposition to the original spending deal well over 100 times over the past two days, with threats to fund primary challenges to anyone who voted for the plan, which was six weeks in the making.

Any member of the House or Senate who supports this outrageous spending bill should be re-elected in two years! Musk was posted on X on Wednesday afternoon.

Later in the day, Trump himself&nbsp, came out against it, making it clear the bill was done.

What’s interesting about this is that&nbsp, everyone&nbsp, seems to&nbsp, agree&nbsp, that it was Musk, not Trump, who torpedoed the CR. &nbsp, Fox News reports:

After Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy allegedly engaged in congressional discussions regarding government funding, some House Republicans are privately expressing their anger.

If Elon and Vivek are freelancing and shooting off the hip without working with [President-elect Trump], according to a second GOP lawmaker, they are getting dangerously close to undermining the actual 47th President of the United States.

Overheated rhetoric is common, so we shouldn’t take this as gospel. And it’s also worth noting that Musk&nbsp, approved&nbsp, of a modified CR, but that one was torpedoed by conservatives in Congress. Also, &nbsp, Musk’s threat&nbsp, to primary anyone in Congress who voted against the approval of Matt Gaetz wasn’t enough to keep Gaetz from withdrawing. So Musk actually isn’t the all-powerful emperor he’s depicted as in the header image of this post — at least, not yet.

But it’s undeniable that Musk has influence that goes far beyond that of any typical super-rich political influencer. He’s not just the owner of X but its poster-in-chief, who manipulates the platform’s algorithm to&nbsp, show everyone his own tweets&nbsp, first and foremost.

Additionally, he is the owner of SpaceX, which the US government largely depends on for its entire space program. And he’s more or less the leader of&nbsp, a right-wing faction in the tech industry &nbsp, that has become a key Republican constituency over the last election cycle.

Therefore, Musk has a lot of extremely powerful tools for directly influencing American policies. He has the authority to threaten to primary any Republican who deviates from his personal goals ( and frequently does ). He has the power to launch right-wing instant mobs on X to attack any Republican who floutes his rules.

He can ( and does ) dump hundreds of millions into elections. He could probably use SpaceX’s government contracts as leverage as well, if he chose. And with Donald Trump, the oldest President ever elected, clearly in his final years, Elon’s energy and activity level frequently make him the ideal stand-in.

It’s clear to both foreign and domestic leaders where the power is in the incoming U.S. regime, but this isn’t just supposition on my part. House Speaker Mike Johnson&nbsp, called up both Trump and Musk&nbsp, to try to get a CR passed. And Musk now&nbsp, regularly accompanies Trump&nbsp, to his meetings with foreign heads of state. The American public as a whole is now accepting this reality after watching Musk kill the continuing resolution.

What does it mean for the nation to have so much of the government’s power firmly rooted in the hands of a single, unelected private individual? It’s hard to say.

There may be some historical precedents here, as Mark Hanna had a significant influence in the McKinley administration and William Randolph Hearst’s control of the print media terrified politicians over a century ago. Various industrial-age tycoons wielded a lot of influence in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Fox News was created by Rupert Murdoch. But Musk’s clout may eclipse them all — X is a new kind of media, Trump is a different kind of President, and so on.

Many in the tech sector I know are enthralled by Elon’s authority. But I believe that this is scary for many regular Americans because they won’t be able to trust Elon to do the right thing, as many other tech professionals do. To see this, let’s do a thought exercise: What if Elon were evil?

Imagining” Evil Elon”

In a post back in October, I wrote that America’s future could hinge on whether Elon Musk decides to play the superhero or the supervillain.

Musk’s friends and confidantes expect the former. They probably know him as a reasonable guy — a&nbsp, Reaganite&nbsp, conservative who was &nbsp, driven to the center-right&nbsp, by the excesses of wokeness, who loves&nbsp, free speech&nbsp, and free enterprise and small government and responsible fiscal and monetary policy and&nbsp, peace between nations, who wants to bring human civilization to Mars and accelerate tech progress and so on.

Let’s refer to this variation of Elon as” Real Elon.”

However, one might also think of Elon, who lives in the fervent imaginations of his foes. Let us call this” Evil Elon”. Regular people, observing Elon’s actions in the public sphere, can’t always tell the difference between Real Elon and this fantasy supervillain.

Whereas Real Elon opposed the CR because of concerns over government spending and legislative complexity, Evil Elon opposed it because it contained national security provisions that&nbsp, would have nixed&nbsp, some of Tesla ‘s&nbsp, planned investments in China:

Cynics note&nbsp that Elon supported’s shorter replacement CR would have actually spent more money than the one Elon killed, with the main difference being that the replacement CR didn’t have restrictions on US investment in China:

Real Elon is a consistent and dedicated ally of the Chinese Communist Party, despite his admiration for individual freedoms and capitalism. When Real Elon calls for Taiwan to become a” special administrative zone” of China, he does it because he likes authoritarian rule and because the Chinese Communist Party has paid him off. Evil Elon does it because he wants to avoid World War 3.

On Ukraine, similar, Real Elon&nbsp, just wants to end the conflict&nbsp, and stop more Ukrainians from dying. After all, Russia is strong and determined enough to almost certainly hold onto a piece of Ukraine at the end of the conflict. So why not just trade land for peace and be done with it?

However, Evil Elon, who shares his sympathies with authoritarian rulers in general, wants Putin to succeed. No one is aware of what Elon and Putin discussed in their frequent conversations since 2022. However, Evil Elon’s supporters believe they conspired to smuggle the Russians into the conflict.

Real Elon and Real Elon both accused Vindman of treason and threatened him with” the appropriate penalty” because we all get upset on social media and like to rippling people who criticize us. However, Vindman was right when Evil Elon did it.

When Real Elon&nbsp, declared his support&nbsp, for the German far-right party AfD, it was because he saw Germany spinning into&nbsp, industrial decline&nbsp, and suffering from an immigration policy that failed to exclude&nbsp, violent criminals. But Evil Elon did it because he likes that AfD is&nbsp, vocally pro-Putin&nbsp, and&nbsp, pro-CCP.

In fact, believers in Evil Elon suspect that his support for AfD might also be due to the whiff of&nbsp, Nazi apologia&nbsp, and&nbsp, antisemitism&nbsp, that hang around some of the party’s candidates. Real Elon is a stand-up guy — when he agreed with a tweet about Jewish communities pushing anti-White hatred, he&nbsp, publicly apologized, declaring it the worst tweet he’s ever done, and declaring himself a “philosemite”. And when Real Elon accidentally endorsed a Tucker Carlson interview with a Hitler apologist, he&nbsp, quickly deleted the endorsement&nbsp, once he realized what it actually contained.

However, those who believe in Evil Elon believe that these are just the kind of public relations stunts a supervillain would employ to cover his tracks. They worry that the massive wave of antisemitism that has swept X&nbsp since Elon took control is the result of deliberate boosting rather than just the unavoidable result of more indulgent moderation policies combined with the response to the Gaza war. 1&nbsp, They do not buy&nbsp, Real Elon’s protests&nbsp, that other platforms have even more antisemitism.

And so on. Essentially, Evil Elon is a somewhat cartoonish supervillain, who wants to set himself up as the ruler of one of three great dictatorships, ruling the world with an iron fist alongside his allies Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin — a new&nbsp, Metternich System&nbsp, to enshrine right-wing values and crack down on wokeness and progressivism and obstreperous minorities all over the world.

I had Grok draw this new Metternich System for fun, and the end result was pretty good. I feel like I have to share it:

Art by Grok

But anyway, the point here is that when normal Americans look at Elon and his words and deeds, they can’t be 100 % certain that he ‘s&nbsp, not&nbsp, Evil Elon. A few progressives will be very convinced that he&nbsp, is&nbsp, actually evil, but I think most people will simply wonder and be uneasy. Evil Elon will continue to exist in a sort of quantum superposition with Real Elon in their minds — a Schrödinger’s oligarch who will&nbsp, probably&nbsp, turn out to have been a good guy all along, but&nbsp, might&nbsp, ultimately turn out to have been very bad from day 1.

And that will scare them. In fact, all powerful people have this same property— even some of the people who voted for them didn’t entirely trust Bill Clinton, George Bush, Barack Obama, and so on. &nbsp, Powerful people are simply inherently untrustworthy, because the consequences of misplacing your trust in them are so grave.

There have been checks and balances on these leaders for the majority of modern American history, which means that if they did prove to be bad, there would be plenty of institutions and opponents in place to limit the damage.

So who or what can check Elon’s power?

One flaw of the US political system, as I mentioned at the beginning of this post, is that there are few mechanisms in place to restrict the political influence of private actors. This is why some people worry about the U. S. becoming an oligarchy, especially in the years after&nbsp, Citizens United.

Up until now, I believe those worries have been unfounded because powerful figures like the Kochs, Soros, and Murdoch have, of course, had a hand in politics and some sort of canceled out each other. But in the age of X, SpaceX, and Trump, we may be looking at a very different situation.

Musk is a singular figure because he has already demonstrated himself to be the one who can create large, successful new high-tech manufacturing companies in the United States. He might also prove himself to be the one who can successfully convert a vast fortune and a corporate empire into effective dominance of US politics.

So who or what could balance out Elon’s power? Prior to his primary threats and online assaults, Congress appears prostrate. Trump may have fired and denounced him in 2017 as he did Steve Bannon, but that Trump has long since passed away. This Trump is aging, bedeviled, and abandoned by many of his former allies. Democrats are still dealing with the collapse of 2010s-era progressivism, and in a few days they will control zero branches of the federal government.

It’s possible that a bunch of&nbsp, other super-rich people&nbsp, will unite to balance out Musk. Although the idea of needing oligarchs to stop other oligarchs is not particularly appealing, it might be preferable. So far, though, even super-rich people who have had rivalries with Musk in the past&nbsp, seem inclined to bend the knee&nbsp, and live as best they can under the new regime.

What about the press? Traditional media — newspapers, TV, and radio — has declined steeply, &nbsp, replaced by social media. Musk&nbsp, owns one of America’s main news platforms&nbsp, ( and a second one, TikTok, is&nbsp, effectively controlled by the CCP). Meanwhile, more progressive media outlets still seem to be in a state of paralysis over conflicts with their activist staffers and their subscribers over Gaza, trans issues, and general election-related recriminations.

Ultimately, of course, power resides with the American people. Musk’s power comes from his ownership of capital, but the way he exercises it is fundamentally a&nbsp, democratic&nbsp, one — if he’s able to primary Congressional Republicans, it’s because his primary challengers are able to win votes, and if he’s able to start a rage-mob on X, it’s because people like what he says.

This means that if enough people get tired of Musk’s attempts to influence American politics, he’ll lose his influence. X is somewhat influential, but even with Musk’s algorithmic changes, it’s not a mind-control device, and it’s also&nbsp, <a href="https://mashable.com/article/elon-musk-x-declining-user-base-2025″>not actually that widely used. Musk is America’s most successful and successful entrepreneur, but even the most successful of men is powerless if he is turned down by the populace. 2&nbsp,

The fracas over the CR this week have a chance of alienating Musk because the American public has never liked shutdown brinksmanship. If Elon pulls a few more stunts, Trump’s second term could be defined by a protracted backlash against his overreach.

Vox populi, vox dei, as they say.

Notes

1. In reality, I have a third theory that claims that Russian and Chinese bots are the primary culprits of antisemitism in order to wedge American society. Right after the election, I’ve noticed that antisemitism largely vanished. This could have been attributable to an Elon crackdown.

2. I wouldn’t bet on it, though, but a few techlords might one day be able to use AI to rule the world in defiance of the vast majority of humanity.

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

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How much Chinese cyber sabotage will Trump tolerate? – Asia Times

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US President-elect Donald Trump has named most of the people of his suggested case. But, he’s still to reveal important appointees to America’s effective cyber warfare and cleverness institutions.

These positions include those held by the National Security Council’s computer lead, the director of the CISA, and the national security council’s cyber director. These figures may be crucial to ensuring the safety of the United States ‘ computer protection at a crucial time.

For the coming leadership, we think there are three potential trouble spots:

  • how Trump does compromise his security and economic interests.
  • how his presidency can effectively stop the electric disturbance in China
  • how it will handle the suspicions that some MAGA supporters have of the intellect “deep state” powers.

Intensifying Chinese digital spy

Foreign electronic surveillance and spy actions against the US have reached an all-time large in terms of level of effort and, most importantly, success.

These spy actions have succeeded in capturing:

  • the most important intellectual property that gives the US a competitive advantage in terms of both financial and national security
  • older US government and military personnel’s private communications, as well as
  • the specific information of tens of millions of Americans.

According to recent reports, the Chinese government has targeted key state systems by utilizing flaws in the country’s aging telecommunications infrastructure.

Hackers from the” Salt Typhoon” organization were able to gain access to the personal contacts of senior officials, including Trump, and to reveal the names of US intelligence agencies both domestically and internationally.

Additionally, it appears that Salt Typhoon has allegedly extorted US telecommunication companies ‘ call data files. These provide a detailed record of all network users ‘ calls and related phone numbers.

These powerful breaches come after years of vicious cyberattacks that have harmed US patents and state secrets involving crucial technologies. These include unnatural knowledge, next-generation plane, biology and power systems.

However, according to research, the majority of Chinese spy operations against the US have been centered on the theft of proprietary information and technologies since 2000.

In addition to this, the US government thinks Beijing is trying to improve its ability to track electronic data on Americans.

A number of steps were taken by the Biden administration to protect America’s tech ecosystem from Chinese-made devices and software that might have hidden security features. The reaction included restrictions and bans on products produced by TikTok, the social media platform, and Hikvision, Dahua, and Hytera.

All of this sets the stage for confrontations between Trump and China, as well as Trump and the technology industry in America.

For instance, the Trump presidency will almost certainly have to convince communications giants AT&amp, T, Verizon, T-Mobile and others to tackle longstanding deficits in their system. This includes the frequent use of unshielded parts that date back to the 1970s and 1980s.

Together, the individual targeting of Trump, his Cabinet, and senior government officials and their solutions will require a violent reaction to deter potential businesses.

How much will the Trump presidency become willing to do in response to Chinese aggression, though?

President Joe Biden has responded to China by criticizing its semiconductor sector and restricting its ability to access another important systems. Beijing is likely to try to have these steps removed in any conversations between Trump and Taiwanese leader Xi Jinping regarding business and taxes.

If it does, Trump’s wish for a better financial “deal” with China does come into conflict with national safety issues.

Cyber damage on critical equipment

Chinese organizations have also been sabotage-infiltrating critical infrastructure in the United States and other countries ( including the cyber security facilities in the” Five Eyes” partners ).

The goal is to install powerful ransomware that can be activated to destroy and destroy necessary systems in order to pre-position themselves in the target sites. This includes in a time of conflict.

The most prominent of these initiatives has come from Volt Typhoon, a Chinese state-sponsored thief party.

These intrusive and destructive measures of destruction of essential equipment are in line with China’s long-standing policy of secret action, which states that “win without fighting”

As we get closer to 2027, these destroy initiatives are commonly anticipated to get worse. This is the most important time when the People’s Liberation Army of China is anticipated to be ready to launch an conquest of Taiwan.

A potential escalation into a military discord between the US and China poses the greatest threat to this electric damage campaign.

If Foreign malware is used to target the events for America’s 250th day in 2026 or the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028, for example, how many restraint had Trump had?

Renewing America’s computer spy law

The last point will be one that is congressional.

The US has long been the subject of heated debate about the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act ( FISA ). The majority of this is centered on Area 702, which is the foundation for America’s extensive selection of unusual intelligence.

This section enables US intelligence agencies to catch phone calls, letters, and other electronic communications from non-Americans outside the US.

Congress has mandated these firms to “minimize” the money collection of data on Americans. In practice, but, this has been difficult to achieve in the age of modern secrecy and international challenges.

FISA is viewed as necessary to national protection organizations that are battling to keep America and its allies protected by nonpartisan supporters. The MAGA-aligned House Freedom Caucus, nevertheless, has cast the work in a different light. They think it gives rise to an inexplicable heavy state that wants to spy on regular people.

Trump has, at times, aligned himself with this perspective. He claimed in April of this year that Congress should “kill FISA” because it was suspected of allowing spying on his political campaign for 2020.

If Congress doesn’t pass a new part 702, Section 702 will expire in April 2026. Although there will be Democratic majority in both houses of Congress, the divergent viewpoints within the party do not maintain passage.

The growing threats to national security that a second Trump administration may encounter are even more dangerous. According to intelligence officials, the need for FISA-sourced knowledge has never been greater.

However, outsiders like Tulsi Gabbard ( presumptive director of national intelligence ), Kash Patel ( presumptive FBI director ), Pam Bondi ( presumptive attorney-general ) and Kristi Noem ( presumptive secretary of homeland security ) may oppose re-authorizing the legislation.

However, America’s allies rely greatly on knowledge shared by US companies using FISA warrants.

Trump may want to compel NATO and other allies to spend more money on their own protection, just as he may require that Five Eye and other intelligence organizations also conduct more surveillance.

William A Stoltz is teacher and specialist associate, National Security College, Australian National University and Michael Rogers is older brother and alternative doctor, Kellogg Executive Leadership Institute, Northwestern University

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Zelensky retirement would be a final act of heroism – Asia Times

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The American diplomat Henry Kissinger, who passed away almost precisely a year ago, said he wished both sides of the Iran-Iraq battle of the 1980s was shed. As 2024 comes to an end and everyone is preparing for Donald Trump’s returning to the White House on January 20, Kissinger’s saying looks dreadfully fitting for the Russian combat in Ukraine: both sides are losing.

The previous 12 months of terrible, protracted conflict have left both flanks exhausted, and neither has gained a major advantage. Russia’s forces have gained some province in eastern Ukraine.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, by early December, Russian troops had seized 2, 700 square meters of Ukraine this year, which is a huge boost on the 465 square kilometers it seized in 2023 but represents a simple 0.4 % of Ukraine’s total land area.

Russia has seized less than half a percentage of Ukraine at an estimated value of 350, 000 deaths. Russia lost 1,500 soldiers every time, according to the UK Ministry of Defense, which is a much lower fatality rate than it experienced in 2022 or 2023, according to a report from the ministry of defense. Media critics have often predicted that in the face of this stress Ukraine’s threats were about to decline, but so far, this has not happened.

In August, Ukraine launched its own invasion of Russia by crossing the Russian frontier and capturing roughly 1,400 square kilometers of place in the Kursk region. This forced Russia to give an estimated 50, 000 soldiers, including 12, 000 Northern Korean soldiers, to try to push the Ukrainians out, which thus far they have failed to accomplish. However, the place occupied by Ukraine has shrunk to about 800 sq km.

At the same time, the two factors have been attacking deep inside each other’s land. Ukraine has focused on attacking hands shops, oil refineries, and the management of Russia’s causes, while Russia has continued to focus its missile strikes on Ukraine’s electricity grid and its cities.

In the biggest coup of the year, Ukrainian spies have recently spied on Moscow, killing a top missile designer and the head of the country’s chemical, biological, and imaging forces, as well as this week.

The battle is between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties are aware that the first few months of the year could see democratic transitions that might be beneficial for them: President Putin may become anticipating Donald Trump’s resumption of the US president, given that this makes it unlikely that the US Congress will grant any additional authorization for the use of American-provided weapons for long-range strikes inside Russia.

For whatever it may be fair, the Financial Times later reported that Trump’s” near foreign policy aides” had informed European counterparts that their employer is presently inclined to continue military aid to Ukraine.

According to polls, President Zelensky may become anticipating Germany’s February 23 general election, in which Olaf Scholz may be replaced by Friedrich Merz of the Christian Democrats, who is much more popular.

New social changes among his own allies have weakened President Putin: the decline of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria was triggered by the failure of either of Assad’s major supporters, Iran or Russia, to engage physically.

Iran has had a bad time, as the violent groups it wings and funds have been crushed or weakened, one by one, by Israel: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran’s personal forces in Syria. Putin was unable to send planes or soldiers to Syria because Russia’s forces are so stretched out by the conflict in Ukraine.

If both sides are losing, both are now putting forward conditions for peace talks, which both must know are unrealistic. Putin made the claim at his annual press conference on December 19 that he was open to compromise, but that the end result of negotiations must be the complete reversal of Russia’s territorial claims.

Zelenskyy insisted at a meeting with EU and NATO leaders in Brussels on the same day that a peace deal could only be reached if the US received a security guarantee and Ukraine received a NATO membership in the future.

Negotiations always begin with extravagant, unrealistic claims. The most likely scenario is that if real discussions do occur next year, there will be stronger bargaining positions in Ukraine than in Russia, but that President Zelensky will have to step down in order for Ukraine to get the best possible outcome.

Trump will enter office with a Russia that has been weakened by Syria, no longer has a strong ally in Iran, and will look an easy target for a self-declared deal-maker like him to push around, which makes its position look more likely to be stronger.

If, between now and late January, Ukraine’s intelligence agencies and military forces can pull off more surprises like their Moscow assassinations, Russia will look all the weaker. Trump will be aware that he can use Putin’s authorization to launch long-range Ukrainian strikes [or continued weapons deliveries ] as a bargaining chip.

Trump will go a long way in favor of allowing Ukraine to join NATO, or even to aspire to join, because it goes against his long-held desire for America to lessen its responsibilities to defend Europe.

He won’t interfere with European NATO members ‘ offering Ukraine security guarantees, but whether Germany, France, the UK, Italy, or Poland will feel compelled to do so must be a subject for debate.

President Zelensky has played a heroic role in Ukraine’s fight for survival. Although he continues to enjoy a lot of support, the country’s martial law continues as a result of the invasion of 2022, which required the waiver of any presidential elections scheduled for April 2024. This enables Putin to assert that Zelensky’s position is unsupported, and that no peace agreement could be reached.

Which opens the door to a final act of heroism: that Zelensky could choose to announce his retirement in order to demonstrate what a resilient democracy it really is by holding presidential elections in which he would not run.

Nobody can dispute Zelensky’s and his family’s right to a holiday and a respectable retirement.

This is the English translation of an article La Stampa published in Italian that was originally published in English on Bill Emmott’s Global View. It is republished with permission.

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