Time’s nearly up for TikTok – Asia Times

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One of the most intriguing National legends is about to come to an end. TikTok, a widely-used social media platform, has sometimes stop operating or be sold by January 19.

The US Supreme Court should reverse the law that makes this option, according to TikTok’s Chinese proprietor. According to the inquiries the magistrates made during oral arguments, the court appears to have the best chance of upholding the law in its place.

The Chinese landlord, ByteDance, has opposed selling. With legal options exhausted, although, it may feel it has no option but to buy. There are rumored to be potential consumers waiting in the wings.

President-elect Donald Trump, who was primarily on the side of shutting TikTok along, now says he would like to keep it. He requested a pause in the Supreme Court’s decision, but the court rejected him. However, it wouldn’t be surprising to discover him helping dealer a sale.

The TikTok account has always been interested. The US supports freedom of speech for American, but it hasn’t always given that right to foreigners, especially not to those from hostile countries. Needless to say, China prohibits the use of British social media sites like Facebook.

Almost a decade ago Congress greatly limited the ability of foreigners, actually green-card recipients, to own more than a majority interest in radio and television stations and sites. Even so, TikTok, which claims 170 million American viewers, which is much larger than any other American television channel, has been permitted to operate openly in the US for a while.

Finally, next April, Congress got around to passing the law requiring a purchase or a shutdown. That, also, was wondering, as I pointed out in a blog a few months ago.

For one thing it’s strange, if never unprecedented, for Congress to enact a business out of life. For another, Congress acted in disobedience of public-opinion surveys indicating the rules may be controversial.

Despite the lack of law and common support, it wasn’t a close contact. The policy passed the House 360-58 and the Senate 79-18. Big, bi-partisan majority in both houses were sufficiently concerned about a well-known social network having a Chinese user to complete an extraordinary law. Committees in both homes held sessions and heard expert testimony, not to mention the ballot was impulsive or hurty.

Why did legislators chose that TikTok posed a threat to national security after all of this? The company’s subjection to the Chinese authorities and the Chinese Communist Party led to two risks, both of which were made worse. One is the system’s ability to collect enormous amounts of information on Americans.

Another benefit is the ability to influence the content to China’s advantage, something TikTok claims is currently doing and may improve if tensions increase with the US.

A traditional New York Times journalist, David French, imagines a strained position in the Taiwan Strait where TikTok is carrying bogus requests for US soldiers and sailors. In eminent TikTok video, important TikTok video lambast the US for its involvement in world peace and label Taiwan as as many a part of China as Hawaii is.

” There’s no shooting war – yet – but the information war is underway, and the People’s Republic of China has an immense advantage”, French wrote. ” If it has the same degree of control over TikTok as the US government does, it has control over the social media feeds of about half the population,” the US government said.” It’s going to apply that power to sow as much confusion and division as it can.”

The reasoning for allowing ByteDance to possess TikTok offers concerns for First Amendment rights with the realization that much of what is on TikTok isn’t politically motivated. Though the First Amendment does not apply to Foreign nationals, it does defend the more than 100, 000 National “influencers” on TikTok, some of whom make their living that way.

The Supreme Court, then, may be weighing regional protection against freedom of speech. The magistrates appeared to want to follow Congress’s assessment of the risks during oral claims. But upsets are generally possible. The foundation of American independence is the First Amendment’s privileges.

Given the January 19 date, expect a determination any day now. Whichever way the prosecutor laws, TikTok may also continue to operate. If the legislation is overturned by the court, it will be with a Taiwanese owner. If the judge upholds the law, it will be with an operator that isn’t, in French’s terms,” controlled by a hostile foreign power”.

Previous longtime Wall Street Journal Asia journalist and editor&nbsp, Urban Lehner&nbsp, is writer professor of DTN/The Progressive Farmer.

This&nbsp, content, &nbsp, initially published on January 12&nbsp, by the latter news business and then republished by Asia Times with authority, is © Copyright 2025 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved. Follow&nbsp, Urban Lehner&nbsp, on&nbsp, X @urbanize&nbsp,

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China continues to shift exports to Global South – Asia Times

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China’s exports grew 10.7 % year-on-year in December, outpacing November’s 6.7 % gain and beating analyst forecast of 7.3 % growth. The main driver of Chinese exports remains the Global South, particularly to nations where China is building system, but restocking in anticipation of taxes accounted for a small portion of the gain. In 2023, China’s export to the Global South outpaced its supplies to all developed markets, and the trend toward developing countries is still there.

Exports to the US now comprise just 15 % of China’s total shipments, down from 20 % in 2018. In December, China sold$ 137 billion in goods to the Global South, compared with just$ 108 billion to all developed markets.

The biggest year-on-year get in December came from Indonesia, whose payments from China were off 50 % on the past December. In Southeast Asia’s largest nation, China is building high-speed road and telecom equipment.

The shift in full exports for 2024 compared to overall exports for 2023 is shown in the above chart. Brazil and Indonesia, which together have almost half a billion people, both rose by 18 % over the period, along with Vietnam. Kazakhstan, the largest market in Central Asia, also increased its payments from China by nearly 20 %. By contrast, increases in export to the US and Europe were little, and Japan showed a tiny drop.

The US in December took only 15 % of China’s exports, down from a peak of 20 % in 2018.

With China’s business shifting to the Global South, Washington has lost the ability to impose tariffs or other trade restrictions on the country.

Indonesia is a striking in China’s trade page. In the last four decades, China’s payments have increased by$ 9 billion per month, or$ 108 billion annually. The Carnegie Endowment wrote in December 2023,” Over the past century, China has made&nbsp, large investments&nbsp, in Indonesia through Belt and Road, spanning various&nbsp, sectors&nbsp, such as equipment and mine. The Public framework has solidified China’s status as one of Indonesia’s largest buying partners…. Chinese opportunities have the potential to boost Indonesia’s economic development, especially when directed toward system development”.

Chinese investments in Indonesia include the Jakarta-Bandung high frequency railroad, a nationwide 5G wifi networking, box ports and integrated warehouses. With a 5 % growth in GDP over the years, it was among the highest in the area.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative’s long-term practicality and the hopes for its trade deal with the Global South depend on whether its dealing colleagues can use exports to fuel future progress. There are any number of failures in the Belt and Road investment, but Indonesia appears to be succeeding.

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Trump’s Panama Canal canard obscures hard China truths – Asia Times

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Donald Trump, the newly elected US president, has frequently criticized what he perceives as China’s overstated dominance of the Panama Canal, a crucial sea corridor connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

On December 25, 2024, Trump fraudulently claimed that Taiwanese men were “operating” the Panama Canal, wishing them a “merry Christmas”.

Trump has also straight criticized the Filipino government, arguing that US fees for using the canal were excessive. He added that if his needs on river management were not met, the US may request that the property be “returned to us, in total, and without problem.” He even considered using defense force to seize the river.

Officials in the nation have been quick to point out that a lot of Trump’s statements regarding the Panama Canal are fake. There was no Foreign influence or involvement in the canal’s management, according to Panamanian President José Raul Mulino. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman disputed Trump’s claims while reiterating the canal’s independence.

What is the current level of US and Foreign control in Panama, besides social language? We conducted fieldwork in Panama as experts on US security cooperation for a new book on US military deployments globally. This included conversations with US military and diplomatic employees stationed in Panama in 2018 as well as government officials and journalists.

We think the picture that a nation was aware of the value of its most important political asset and eager to balance its own desire to run the canal without getting too much of a kick out of Washington or Beijing is what came next and continues to exist today.

Panama Canal’s narrative

Without having to go through the remainder of South America, the Panama Canal serves as a passing place for ships moving between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

King Carlos V of Spain explored the idea of a waterway through Panama for the first time in 1534. France began building the river in 1881, but it ceased because of its large financial and human costs, three centuries later.

After backing Filipino freedom from Colombia a year before as a way to safe the right to construct the river, the United States restarted the initiative in 1904.

The Panama Canal Zone, or 5 miles of Nicaraguan place on either side of the canal, was immediately under the control of the United States.

A major US military presence was present in the Canal Zone.

In 1964, a group of Filipino students attempted to raise the Filipino flag alongside the US symbol at the high class inside the Canal Zone, a human assembly that was failing to fly the flag alongside it in violation of a US-Panama deal.

Numerous Nicaraguan people were killed in a violent altercation with the families of the American learners. The day is still referred to as” Martyrs ‘ Day” in Panama.

Negotiations between Panama, which was under the military dictatorship of Omar Torrijos, and the United States, which were sparked by persistent conflicts and local protests.

In the end, it led to the signing of the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties, which guaranteed that the river would continue to be accessible to ships of any and all nations, established a temporary percentage to oversee it, and secured the canal’s final return to Filipino jurisdiction on December 31, 1999.

This dispatch took position as planned. However, the US continues to be the main recipient of the path, with the majority of traffic passing through the river coming from or going to a US interface.

Foreign control in Panama

However, the river is of great importance to other nations as well, with 2.5 % of international commerce taking place in its waters on average each year. Panama has also grown to be a more significant country to Beijing as China has expanded its market over the past four years and begun to concentrate more on exports.

Trump’s claims that China is in charge of the river allegedly stem from the fact that Chinese businesses do own shares in the canal. The Balboa and Cristóbal slots, which are the canal’s entry and exit points, are now managed by the Panama Ports Company, a company of Hutchison Ports in Hong Kong. The company’s rent to handle these ports will be renewed until 2047.

The Panama Canal Authority, a branch of the Filipino authorities, maintains control over the slots and the waterway despite the Hong Kong firm’s management of these ports.

When conducting interviews in Panama, we asked government officials and citizens alike about Foreign control in Panama. At the time, during the summer of 2018, much of the conversation was about China’s plans to build a new embassy overlooking the entrance to the canal. Though the US eventually pressured the Panamanian government to not allow the construction, the population’s openness to China was clear.

In general, the persons we spoke to said views of China were good in Panama. The largest ethnic Chinese people in Central America is represented by a major ethnic Chinese population in Panama, many of whom are descended from Chinese refugees who came to the country in the 1800s.

Some Filipino officials who we spoke with claimed that the rise in Chinese investment in Panama has heightened US concerns about losing control to China. They even argued that the US was acting unfairly in response to the rise of foreign influence, such as in Brazil or in Europe.

One US official standard who we spoke with had concerns about Chinese purchase, claiming it could lead to fraud and reduced Panama’s economic opportunities.

At the same time, local leaders we interviewed didn’t fully believe China sometimes. They asserted that they were always concerned about the US or China being fair in their interactions with Panama.

The second ship to sail over the expanded Panama Canal was the vessel vehicle COSCO Shipping Panama from China COSCO Shipping Corporation Ltd, which made history on June 26, 2016. Photo: YouTube / New China News

How Panamanians view the US

According to both US and Nicaraguan officials who spoke with us, Panamanians typically have positive opinions of the US.

A Filipino journalist we spoke to referred to Troops as “gringueros” – meaning they have an affection for Americans. Some respondents noted that fewer and fewer Panamanians have powerful memories of the US controlling the Panama Canal Zone or the US invasion of Panama in 1989, despite there still be some anti-US attitude among younger and left-leaning parties.

While US ties with Panama are usually strong, they are not immune to problems. One former US ambassador to Panama asserted that the US government frequently didn’t get regular Panamanians ‘ concerns about US action seriously enough. He noted, for instance, that related local protests may turn into anti-American rallies if they occur at the same time as US military activities.

China has significantly increased its efforts to expand its influence worldwide over the past ten years. This has resulted in a dramatic rise in mortgages and Chinese-funded infrastructure projects to governments all over the world.

We spoke with US officials who were stationed in Latin America, and they had a lot of concerns about how Foreign investment is gaining ground there. US coverage analysts have long expressed concern about China’s “dual-use” tasks like those found in ports, where supposedly human projects can be easily adapted for military purposes.

At a time when, in the terms of one previous Nicaraguan authorities national we spoke with, the US “generally neglects Latin America, and neglects the demands of Panama, specifically”, China has seized the opportunity to expand its presence in the region.

One of the interviews we conducted was with a previous Panamanian leader who had been involved in the discussions of the Torrijos-Carter Treaties before he took business. He was pleased to say that Troops valued their independence and their independence very highly.

This attitude has only been strengthened by Trump’s subsequent responses. As Esmeralda Orobio, the daughter of one of those killed in the 1964 crime, told investigators during this year’s Martyrs ‘ Day remembrance:” The Panama Canal is theirs, and we are going to support it”.

Carla Martinez Machain is professor of political research, University at Buffalo, Michael A Allen is professor of political science, Boise State University, and Michael E Flynn is professor of political science, Kansas State University

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Stage theory, macrohistory and surviving the Kali Yuga – Asia Times

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Our time has all the marks of the Kali Yuga, a dark era of individualism, alienation, injustice and social collapse. But there is trust.

In Hindu cosmology, the Kali Yuga ( Age of Conflict ) is the last of four epochs described in the Vedas. The next epoch will be the Satya Yuga ( Age of Truth ), the equivalent of the Second Coming in Christianity.

Amazingly, contemporary macrohistorical and stage theories provide a comparable framework for understanding the evolution of humanity and closely coincide with old spiritual prophecies, providing guidance on how to navigate this transforming era.

One of the oldest level ideas in the world is the Hindu prophecy that humankind develops in four distinct phases. Ancient Indian scholars predicted a period whereby the philosophies of the four varnas—teacher, warrior, trader, and worker—take turns “ruling the planet”. This Varna period is a reflection of the Vedas ‘ continuous science.

When the cycle is completed, it starts fresh.

In Hindu science, the four Varnas follow a seasonal pattern.

The last judgment, the development of a new heaven and earth, and the return of Christ as a linear growth toward holy fulfillment are all depicted in the Bible. Various religions have similar prophecies. While their idioms differ, they all anticipate a world of harmony, justice, unity and justice.

Over time, there have also been liberal level theories. For starters, Confucius described royal cycles, charting the surge, maximum, decline and fall of dynasties. Also, Greek historian Polybius proposed the theory of anacyclosis, describing recurring political advancement from king to elite to politics and their respective crooked forms—tyranny, elite and ochlocracy.

Modern Tales

In the 19th century, European philosophy developed several stage theories and macrohistories, including Hegel’s dialectical model of historical progress ( thesis, antithesis, synthesis ), Comte’s Law of Three Stages ( theological, metaphysical and positivist ), and Marx’s modes of production ( primitive collectivism, slave society, feudalism, capitalism and communism ).

In the early 20th centuries, German writer Oswald Spengler presented his seasonal theory of societies, likening them to biological organisms with predictable cycles of birth, growth, age, collapse and death. The rise and fall of big civilizations were the subjects of Toynbee’s macrohistory.

Although level theory and macrohistory are related, both deal with human development.

By the mid-20th era, macrohistories and level ideas gained popular interest. Francis Fukuyama, Samuel Huntington, and Alvin Toffler all gained acclaim.

Toffler identified society’s change from hunter-gatherer and agrarian societies to professional and post-industrial eras. Huntington argued that future conflicts would be influenced by social and spiritual identities, while Fukuyama famously declared the “end of history,” implying that Western liberal democracy represented the turning point of intellectual evolution.

Development of perception

The Stage Theory of Cognitive Development, a Swedish psychologist’s theory of mental development, which describes how children’s considering develops over time as they mature, had a significant impact on contemporary period ideas in the 1920s. His theory had a significant impact on the study of individual mental development.

In the second half of the 20th centuries, thinkers Jean Gebser and Ken Wilber extended level principles to human consciousness. Gebser described humanity’s progression through unique” buildings” of consciousness, old, magical, mythical, psychological and integral levels.

Gebser, whose concept relied heavily on art story, pointed at Cubism as a metaphor for expanding awareness. Cubism replaced the one-point view of the Renaissance with “multiple ideas”.

By embracing the difficulty, duality, and interconnection of life, Gebser came up with the term “aperspectival,” a way of experiencing fact that goes beyond the boundaries of distinct and fixed perspectives.

Various techniques to the development of perception have been proposed by Gebser and Wilber.

Ken Wilber’s essential concept identifies three stages of development: pre-personal, private and transcendental.

The transpersonal emphasizes the potential for people to move past their ego-driven, personal problems and accept a deeper feeling of interdependence with the world. Wilber sees this evolution as essential for addressing global issues and fostering a more included, sympathetic, and spiritually awakened world.

Gebser and Wilber were both influenced by Indian cosmology and ideas about spirituality and consciousness, and particularly by contemporary Indian spiritual teacher Sri Aurobindo ( 1872-1950 ), the pioneer of Integral Yoga and one of the first advocates of an integral approach to spirituality.

Gebser and especially Wilber used key concepts from Indian cosmology and consciousness, among them the Sanskrit terms Sat-Chit-Ananda ( being-consciousness-bliss ), Atman ( true self ), Maya ( illusion ) and Turiya, ( pure awareness ). Wilber used the term Turiya to describe a sublime state of consciousness, a breakthrough in metaphysical study and revelation.

Reviving the Varna routine

Based on the original Varna model, Indian spiritual teacher Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar created the socio-spiritual model PROUT ( Progressive Utilization Theory ). Sarkar restored the original interpretation of the Varna idea after the initial idea had degenerated into the harsh, genealogical caste system. &nbsp,

In the Vedic revelation, the four Varnas (teachers, soldiers, retailers and workers ), are emotional characteristics. One of the four Varna forms is the dominant inclination for all people. Although there are characteristics of two or three Varnas, one of the four usually predominates in each person.

For a working world, Sarkar argued that all four Varnas are required. As we have seen in recent past, when one or more of the four Varnas is sidelined, cultures lose their stability and strength. Socialism is failing because it minimizes the employer, and capitalism failed because it minimized the merchants.

Sarkar’s model rejects notions of order, superiority and inferiority. He focuses instead on the idea of cooperation. All Varnas may help because they are dependent on one another.

They must build a mutual relationship. Peter Hayward and Joseph Voros, two researchers from Australia, created a design based on Sarkar’s concept to teach organizations about the value of cooperation and mutual respect.

The healthy and unhealthy emotions of the four varnas are illustrated by Peter Hayward and Joseph Voros.

In the 1980s, the American macrohistorian Lawrence Taub, artist of” The Spiritual Imperative”, made the extraordinary state that the Varna period can be mapped to real people background.

As the diagrams below indicate, Taub made connections between the four castes and particular historical eras. ( Taub used the original sequence of the four Varna ages mentioned in the Vedas: teacher, protector, merchant, worker. )

Taub compared the historical context to the Varna cycle. His prediction for the Kali Yuga’s end was optimistic and more likely to occur after 2050.
Taub’s diagram of the four Varna with their distinct worldviews, ruling elite, social ideal, etc.

In Taub’s model, we have just emerged from the Merchant Age. Because of how closely its worldview aligns with the Merchant type, The West was preeminent in the Merchant Age. The Worker Age is about to reach its height. For the same reason, Confucian Asia will be in the spotlight because its worldview most closely resembles that of the worker.

In the 1970s, China reintegrated the traders into society and created a hybrid system based on communism and capitalism. In barely a generation, it became the world’s largest producer and preeminent trading nation.

China has grown to be the world’s largest trading partner for almost all nations, and it has a significant influence on people’s physical well-being. People who live in slums or are in daily battles for survival are at a disadvantage. ( Spiritual development is challenging. ) &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Taub argued that India will guide us into the Satya Yuga, a renewed age of enlightenment, and that Confucian Asia will help us leave the Worker Age ( and thus the Kali Yuga ). India will be a leader in the new spiritual era because it has the largest body of spiritual wisdom and understanding of the nature of human consciousness.

incorporating stage theory and macrohistory

Stage theories and macrohistories offer new insights into how humanity developed over time. Macrohistory looks for broad, overarching patterns and trends in history, often over centuries or millennia. It attempts to identify recurring themes, structures, and dynamics across time and cultures in an effort to predict possible future events, which is closely related to futurism. &nbsp,

Stage theory argues that history progresses through a series of distinct, sequential stages, often based on specific criteria like consciousness, economics or social organization. When combined, stage theory and macrohistory can provide insight into seemingly contradictory contemporary developments. For example:

* What explains the rise of religious fundamentalism in recent decades, not only in Islam but also in Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism and Buddhism?

* In a world where everything is becoming more and more connected, why do nationalist politicians like Donald Trump, Marine Le Pen, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi prosper?

* Why does a growing number of people in developed countries experience psychological issues as a result of increasing material well-being?

Separately, macrohistories and stage theories can’t explain these seemingly counter-intuitive developments. However, integrated” macrohistorical stage theories” can offer a wider framework for understanding global human development across cultures.

First, macrohistorical stage theories would promote interdisciplinarity and advance our understanding of societal, cultural, and developmental patterns. This would give rise to a more nuanced understanding of how societies move through stages in longer historical cycles.

Second, macrohistories span disciplines like history, sociology and anthropology, while stage theories often incorporate psychology, philosophy and organizational studies. They are integrated, which promotes a holistic view of complex questions.

Third, stage theories frequently emphasize moral, spiritual, or cognitive development, while macrohistories emphasize the larger effects of societal choices made over time. These ideas would be boosted by the incorporation of values-driven approaches to developments that balance short-term goals and short-term actions.

Lastly, macrohistorical stage models should include post-colonial theory, an academic field developed by scholars from previously colonized countries. Post-colonial theory examines the power imbalances and exploitation that occurred both before and after colonialism.

Forgetting the Kali Yuga requires replacing systemic injustices and global inequality with reciprocity and mutuality.

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Putting a price tag on Greenland – Asia Times

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It’s doubtful you’ve missed the account. Donald Trump, the newly elected US president, has stated on numerous occasions that he wants to take “ownership and power” of Greenland, a sovereign nation of the Danish Kingdom.

Trump first made a point of getting the US to buy Greenland again in 2019. At the time, he argued, very accurately, that he was not the first US senator to come up with the idea.

Modern-day country sales are unique. It remains to be seen whether Trump may bring them back. However, the query is interesting: How would one choose to offer something for an entire state, territory, or nation?

Not a novel concept

Since the beginning of the Cold War, Greenland’s strategic location has been of enormous benefit to the US.

In 1946, then-President Harry Truman offered to buy the Swedish place for US$ 100 million in gold. According to reports, the Danes responded to that sell in much the same way as they did in 2019 and again in 2025:” No, bless you.”

One royal state purchasing place from another may appear strange at the time, but there are numerous instances where this has happened over period.

In the earlier 19th century, the US largely seized control of its European growth.

This included the” Louisiana Purchase“, vast swathes of land in North America, bought from France in 1803 for US$ 15 million ( an estimated$ 416 million in 2024 figures ).

After the Mexican-American War, the US paid Mexico for significant amounts of place. The US also bought Alaska from Russia in 1867, for$ 7.2 million ( over$ 150 million today ).

And it bought the US Virgin Islands from Denmark in 1917 for$ 25 million ( over$ 600 million today ) in gold coin.

It isn’t just the US. Japan, Pakistan, Russia, Germany and Saudi Arabia have all purchased place, transferring control over local citizens and gaining area, access to essential waterways or just physical buffers.

What is a country’s price?

Valuing a country ( or an autonomous territory like Greenland ) is no simple task. Countries have a mix of tangible and intangible factors that resist simple financial measurement, in contrast to companies or assets.

A logical place to start is gross domestic product, or” GDP”. Simply put, GDP is the total value of all the goods and services that are produced in an economy over a given period of time (usually a month ).

But does this actually capture the true “value” of an business? When we buy things, the benefits derived from it next – we hope – into the future.

Therefore, based on the value produced over a given time period, a purchase price does not accurately reflect the buyer’s purchase price ( in this case, the value of the entire business ). We must think about whether or not we can continue to add value in the future.

Greenland’s productive resources include not only the existing businesses, governments and workers used to generate its current GDP (estimated at about$ 3.236 billion in 2021 ), but also its ( difficult to measure ) ability to change and improve its future GDP. How useful these tools are going to be in the future will determine this.

Aerial view of skyline at port of Nuuk, the capital of Greenland
Components that aren’t easily included in GDP include how much an entire business is worth. Photo: Yingna Cai / Shutterstock via The Talk

Another value-added characteristics are not included in GDP. These include the value of its investment ( both people and network ), quality of life, natural resources and strategic location.

Beyond what is already there, from a business perspective, it’s the as-yet unexploited tools that make Greenland important.

Greenland has been mining fuel for centuries, with big, proved resources. The soil has been shown to contain rare rocks, precious metals, tungsten and uranium.

In addition to fuel mine, there is platinum, silver, brass, lead, copper, graphite and stone.

Lastly, there is the potential for big oil abuse off the lakes of Greenland. None of this possibility is reflected in Greenland’s present GDP.

Federal resources are easier

Putting a price on a large national asset, such as the Panama Canal ( which Trump also wants under US control ), is a much easier prospect.

View of the Panama Canal with a ship approaching
The state of Panama owns the Panama Canal, which connects the Caribbean Sea to the Pacific Ocean. Photo: jdross75 / Instagram

The financing discipline’s tenets date back to the 18th century, and the concept of asset valuation is one of its most important.

The “asset sales design” has evolved over time, but ultimately, it’s about estimating the future gross income flows from an asset, based on a few inputs.

This may involve estimating the potential future gross income for the Panama Canal based on factors like costs generated by its use and the volume of traffic that is anticipated.

Therefore, you would take action to subtract any predicted harm to the waterway’s health from the projected costs of maintaining the equipment. The risk of really realizing that online income is another factor in determining what you would give.

Working out the present value of all of these future ( net ) income flows is typically used to determine the value or “price tag” of such an asset.

Current country sales are uncommon.

There are a number of reasons why the geographical sales are declining. Generally, land sales typically benefited ruling elites more than ordinary citizens. It is almost impossible to buy land in modern democracies if local residents are against the idea.

For governments operate on the theory that national property may serve the people, not the government’s coffers. Selling a place now may need demonstrating obvious, tangible benefits to the population, a challenging job in practice.

Patriotism is another important factor. Property is closely linked to its regional personality, and selling it off is frequently viewed as a betrayal. Institutions, as custodians of national satisfaction, are anxious to amuse offers, no matter how tempting.

People seen singing as part of Greenland's National Day festival
The purchase of a place like Greenland doesn’t occur without the people’s express permission. Photo: Lasse Jesper Pedersen / Shutterstock

A strong international standard against changing borders serves as a powerful endorsement of this, which was created out of concern that one regional adjustment might lead to a wave of disputes and conflicts abroad.

In today’s world, buying a state or one of its provinces may be little more than a notion test. Governments are social, cultural and historical companies that resist commodification.

Greenland may potentially have a cost, but the actual question is whether or not such a transaction always complies with contemporary values and realities.

Susan Stone is credit union SA head of finance, University of South Australia and Jonathan Boymal is interact professor of Economics, RMIT University

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Will Japan win or lose under Trump 2.0? – Asia Times

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Japan is experiencing something of an economic judgment that government officials seem to be omitted yet before Donald Trump’s resumption of office.

In at least four of the last five weeks of the year, Japan’s household saving fell. ” At least” is used here because the December numbers aren’t yet known. In November, real spending dropped 0.4 % year on year. There is no compelling reason to believe that stuff improved in the final 30 days of 2025.

The point is that the “virtuous cycle” Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba‘s Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) has promised since 2012 still hasn’t arrived. That’s despite all the vodka cork-popping from the flower when labor organizations received their biggest increase in 33 years.

Ishiba has merely led since October 1st. And with approval ratings in the mid-20s, he might not be about much longer. Maybe that’s why Ishiba didn’t even get a meeting with Trump, despite meeting with nearly every planet leader imaginable, including Prince William. Just not that of Japan, Trump 1.0’s leading supporter among democratic governments.

It’s on Ishiba’s see, nevertheless, that Japan’s pre-existing financial circumstances are catching up with the area. These include obstinate efforts to increase productivity and meritocracy in the labour force, lessen bureaucracy, revive the innovation that Japan Inc. was again famous for, empower women, and encourage more foreign corporations to relocate to Tokyo.

More than address these financial problems, the LDP continues to fiddling with the signs. Look no further than the Bank of Japan’s ( BOJ) interest rate policies, which have been stifled around zero for 25 years. The BOJ still lacks the will to raise rates above the current 0. 25 %.

Whatever happened to Shinzo Abe’s strong prepare 12 years ago to recreate Japan’s economic model? Sure, the late prime minister cajoled companies to increase shareholder price, driving the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to all-time peaks. However, as 2025 draws near, worldwide investors are realizing that their optimism is not being matched by recent and bold reform initiatives in Tokyo.

Nor is Asia’s second-biggest business firing on some cylinder. Regular wages aren’t keeping up with inflation, which is one reason why house spending is sluggish. What makes everyone believe they’ll feed their paychecks as the Trump 2.0 era begins if CEOs were unwilling to do so in 2024?

According to Takafumi Fujita, an economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute,” It’s feared that higher taxes that President Trump has promised on China and other nations could stifle the global business and eventually hit Japan.”

Along with financial stability, international cooperation initiatives seem very much at risk.

” The US, Europe and Japan reconnected in a revitalized, cohesive G7 on issues such as financial sanctions, cybercrime, anti-money laundering and helping Ukraine against Russia”, says Mark Sobel, &nbsp, US chairman at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum ( OMFIF ). ” But that unification, too, is likely to fight as Trump 2.0 introduces uncertainty and fluctuation”.

The same holds true for governmental evils that threaten the global financial system. As Sobel puts it:” Public debt is high in the US, many of Europe, Japan and China. In the US, the macroeconomic direction is unsustainable. Trump is likely to increase imbalances from the already excessively high level of 7 % of GDP, pushing up longer-term rates, hurting funding and causing business nausea. Does bond vigilantes gain”?

The BOJ is in a specially difficult status because of this. It is possible for the BOJ to delay the rate increase and maintain the policy for a while if the Chinese economy is adversely impacted by the US price boost without a matching depreciation of the yen, according to Hitoshi Asaoka, senior strategist at Asset Management One.

Frank Benzimra, mind of Asia capital approach at Societe Generale, notes that “in the coming months, the capital markets look set to be shaped by China –the level of governmental support – the US – the dollar, trade, diplomacy and the Bank of Japan – the possible catalyst for carry-trade sleeping – policies. The goal won’t have to be “bearish” in any way.

However, optimism abounds in Asian business circles. According to a Kyodo News survey, nearly 80 % of Japan’s top companies believe that the local market will continue to grow in 2025 as wage increases stimulate consumer spending.

However, every zig-and-zag may require a lot of market adaptation. ” Markets will be quite volatile but without much significant net direction, as the perceived odds of these different]tariff ] scenarios oscillate”, says Phil Suttle, principal at Suttle&nbsp, Economics.

That goes, also, for northern banks from Tokyo to Washington. According to Daniel McCormack, head of research at Macquarie Asset Management,” a significant amount of core bank easing is currently priced into most rates markets, while credit spreads have tightened in recent months and are now somewhat thin by traditional standards.”

This, according to McCormack, “limits the upside in terms of returns for bonds, and equity asset classes are likely to benefit more from the macroeconomic environment that we anticipate seeing in 2025.” That said, yields have improved significantly in recent years, and absolute returns in 2025 should be healthy by historical standards.

Bond markets have moved to price in aggressive easing cycles by most major central banks in the upcoming quarters, with the notable exception of the Bank of Japan, for which further increases are priced, following clear signals from central bank officials that further easing is likely.

As such, many BOJ watchers still think it’s full speed ahead for rate hikes. Takeshi Yamaguchi, chief Japan economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG, says”, we retain our base-case forecast of a rate hike in January.”

The BOJ will need to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation, according to BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who recently stated that “if economic activity and prices continue to improve, the BOJ will need to do so.”

And that “uncertainties regarding the incoming US administration’s economic policies” and how the annual Spring labor management wage negotiations will develop will have the final say on Japanese rates.

Izumi Devalier, an economist at Bank of America, says that Ueda’s comments” gave a stronger indication that the central bank may need to wait until at least the March&nbsp, monetary policy meeting to gain&nbsp, sufficient information&nbsp, to make the judgment for a hike.”

With a BOJ rate hike unlikely until March at the earliest, says Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG Australia”, the risk of dollar-yen testing extending its rally towards 160/162 in early 2025 remains elevated “from 157 now.

Asaoka anticipates that the BOJ will increase the policy rate, which is regarded as neutral, to 1 % by the end of 2025. ” He adds that” if the Trump administration’s policies lead the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts in 2025, the BOJ will find it relatively easier to proceed with rate hikes.”

Some investors are betting on the return of the good times for Japanese stocks given that scenario.

” We expect the Nikkei 225 will reach 45, 400 and TOPIX to 3, 190 by the end of 2025 “from 39, 190 now, says Hisashi Shiraki, strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management.

He continues,” While foreign investors ‘ appetite for Japanese stocks appears sluggish, a sizable amount of share buybacks, up to 17 trillion yen in fiscal year 2024, could protect the downside and boost the stock market going forward.”

There’s an argument, too, that Japan Inc could benefit from deeper troubles being suffered elsewhere, says Junichi Inoue, head of Japanese equities at Janus Henderson Investors.

” Due to Japanese stocks ‘ comparatively low valuations versus global equities, and ongoing governance reforms contributing to return-on-equity improvements, we expect the market to demonstrate a certain level of resilience,” Inoue says.

Inoue also points out that” for these reasons, we think that Japanese equities can be seen as attractive risk-reward asset classes, deserving of an allocation in a diversified portfolio, particularly those that are exposed to global markets and global growth.”

However, such views may be deflated by global risks. Japan would absorb a lot of economic shrapnel, perhaps even more, despite Trump’s threatened trade war targeting China. For all China’s challenges, Xi Jinping’s team has been busily diversifying exports to Global South economies around the globe.

Shunsuke Kobayashi, chief economist at Mizuho Securities, acknowledges hope that Trump’s proposed tax reductions will help Japanese companies with significant US exposure offset the risks and increase profits. But either way, a giant trade war would slam Japan’s gross domestic product.

According to Kobayashi,” If that happens, capital investment would decline because we anticipate that exports will decline, ultimately affecting the broader economy.”

That could make Japan Inc. even less willing to raise wages. Japan has been more reluctant to turn its back on the American consumer. In Tokyo, there are no signs that the Fed will not be cutting interest rates as quickly as it had hoped.

Indeed, the Trumpian headwinds to come make 2025 a perilous time for Japan. Last month, the BOJ chose not to hike rates, which it later confirmed. Ahead of that December 19 decision, traders were primed for Ueda to tighten. Many felt its refusal to act smacked of fear, not pragmatism.

For the first time since 2011, traders last week pushed 10-year yields above 1.1 %, a clear indication that the BOJ erred by not raising.

” It’s like the rug was pulled out from under us,” Kazuhiko Sano, chief bond strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities, tells Nikkei Asia.

Why should corporate executives and global investors if the BOJ doesn’t believe Japan is ready to abandon its financial training wheels?

Granted, there are legitimate arguments to support Japan Inc. companies that are cash-rich in their governance positions. Japan, after all, has carved out a place for itself as an Asia-region safe haven as deflation plagues China.

However, there will come a point when investors examine the underlying economy and wonder whether policy changes are keeping up with the level of optimism that is pervading the market.

A lack of household demand may give too many investors pause about Japan’s chances in the Trump 2.0 era as more and more investors look for an answer.

Of course, surprises are always possible. On the eve of July elections, Ishiba might find his reformist sea-legs and cling to power.

Trump might choose to prioritize a trade agreement with Xi’s China over a tariff-free arms race. Or perhaps the newly elected president will treat ally Japan favorably in the marketplace while punishing China.

But as a highly uncertain year begins, Japan’s past could catch up with it just as Ueda’s BOJ and Ishiba’s LDP stumble in the present.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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China building monster barges to overrun Taiwan’s shores – Asia Times

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China’s latest ships of special-purpose marine boats is rewriting the rulebook for a possible Taiwan war, raising the stakes in the cross-strait stalemate with striking new tactics and high-stakes challenges for the self-governing planet’s defenders.

This quarter, Naval News reported that China is fast constructing a ship of special-purpose boats, possible for marine attack on Taiwan. At Guangzhou Shipyard, according to the review, five of these vessels were observed with unusually long path bridges that propelled tanks and other large equipment straight onto Chinese roads.

These boats are intended to travel along coastal highways or hard surfaces beyond beaches, potentially making recently inadequate landing sites practical, according to Naval News. They are reminiscent of the Mulberry Harbors used during the Allied invasion of Normandy in World War II. Building of the boats, which began with a design in 2022, has accelerated late, raising issues about China’s purposes.

Given their size and design, which considerably exceed human needs, Naval News suggests that these vessels were specifically designed for military use. The report says the barges ‘ ability to dock with China’s large fleet of roll-on/roll-off ( RoRo ) ferries, built to carry military vehicles, further underscores their potential role in a Taiwan invasion.

This growth, according to the report, makes Taiwan’s defense strategy more difficult, allowing China to choose new landing locations and bypass beaches and ports that are sparsely defended.

In October 2023, Asia Times mentioned that China’s marine sealift features face important restrictions, complicating a possible invasion of Taiwan. As of December 2024, China had four Type 075 landing helicopter assault ( LHA ) ships and nine landing platform docks ( LPD), with more Type 76 LHAs on the horizon.

While the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s ( PLAN ) amphibious assault ships could carry 21, 000 troops – the equivalent of one heavy brigade during its initial landing, where Taiwan may have as many as 1, 200 tanks waiting – the People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) has the capacity to put only half that number ashore.

But, using RoRo boats to assist an amphibious assault could boost China’s sealift power.

Following death strikes on Taiwan’s management, China may have to place 300, 000-400, 000 soldiers ashore to capture the island immediately. But, if those decapitation strikes fail, China may have to take 2 million soldiers, including police and military forces, across the Taiwan Strait to assure a three-to-one or five-to-one quantitative superiority against defending Chinese troops.

In the 2024 book” Foreign Marine Warfare: Hopes for a Cross-Strait Invasion”, Ian Easton highlights the importance of Taiwan’s ships in China’s plans for a potential war.

According to Easton, the PLA believes that Taiwan’s ports must be in place to support large-scale operations because they can support heavy equipment, reinforcements, and logistics that beachheads and airports cannot. Without capturing and utilizing these facilities, he claims PLA forces run the risk of being attacked and overwhelmed by Taiwanese counterattacks.

Conversely, Easton says Taiwan’s defense strategy prioritizes transforming its ports into fortified strongholds, incorporating interlocking firing networks, underground bunkers and coastal artillery.

He mentions Taiwan’s defensive strategies, including using anti-airborne and anti-tank missiles, mining waterways, and possibly sabotaging infrastructure to prevent access. He points out that PLA strategies recommend integrated port-seizure operations that include commando raids, air assaults, and amphibious landings to reduce the risk of damage to port facilities and ensure their use.

Additionally, Easton claims that Taichung is the most likely port target in a July 2021 Project 2049 report because of its extensive modern amenities, relatively light urban settings, and easy access to nearby beaches and river deltas.

However, he says Taichung would likely be well-defended. He also mentions that Kaohsiung, Zuoying, Taipei and Anping are likely targets because of their strategic importance, although their dense urban environments and surrounding defensive positions present challenges.

Easton mentions that Keelung, Suao, Hualien and Makung could be targeted but are lesser-priority targets due to unfavorable terrain and strong defenses.

While Easton lists 14 suitable landing spots for a Chinese invasion, including five in the south and nine in the north, according to a report from Newsweek in December 2023 that cautious Taiwanese defense planners had identified more than two dozen sites.

In such a case, Taiwan and the US face a defensive quandary. In a March 2022 article for the Global Taiwan Institute ( GTI), Charlemagne McHaffie stresses the need for Taiwan to develop a comprehensive, multi-layered strategy to repel a potential Chinese invasion, emphasizing mobile defense as an indispensable component. McHaffie emphasizes unified command, air, naval and ground forces coordination, and a robust doctrine tailored to resist amphibious operations.

However, he points out that naval and coastal defenses, while effective in delaying and attriting enemy forces, have historically failed to prevent landfall when the attacker holds naval superiority, as China does against Taiwan. He contends that shoreline defenses must be supported by mobile mechanized forces in order to prevent initial beachhead.

According to McHaffie, calls for Taiwan to adopt an asymmetric strategy that relies on guerrilla warfare and prolongs conflict to secure US intervention are based precariously on an ambiguous US commitment.

He claims that the current policy of strategic ambiguity raises significant risks because of this strategy’s reliance on external aid. Consequently, he says Taiwan’s defense strategy will likely prioritize capabilities for independent victory, including mechanized counterattacks to destroy Chinese beachheads.

Taiwan has the option to launch sporadic strikes on the Chinese mainland. Asia Times mentioned that Taiwan’s long-range missiles, including the Ching Tien hypersonic cruise missile, significantly advance the island’s defense strategy. They make precise long-range assaults on crucial Chinese military and infrastructure, such as as staging areas for an amphibious assault.

With ranges extending beyond 2, 000 kilometers, these missiles can target key sites such as liquid natural gas terminals, oil ports and nuclear power plants, potentially inflicting substantial damage.

In the midst of escalating tensions with China, Taiwan’s development of these advanced weapons highlights its strategic move toward more mobile and resilient defense systems.

However, the use of these missiles could have serious effects, including the possibility of more frequent conflicts and potential nuclear retaliation from China. International standards and alienating allies could be compromised by striking a nuclear-armed state’s home, which would impede international support.

Additionally, such strikes might be used by China’s leadership to rally domestic support for an invasion of Taiwan, potentially leading to a protracted conflict.

According to McHaffie, with this circumstance, the US has two options: funding Taiwan’s robust conventional defenses and securing the necessary time for US intervention.

He warns that if Taiwan is ignored, it could become vulnerable, and US counteroffensives against a China with nuclear weapons might be necessary, or Taiwan might completely abandon it.

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How Trump can break China’s tightening grip on Central Asia – Asia Times

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The royal release of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan rail on December 27 was the latest evidence of China’s growing effect in Central Asia.

China’s growing deal with a crucial area that the US has de facto abandoned since its military withdrawal from neighboring Afghanistan in 2021 will be supported by construction, which is anticipated to take six decades.

China’s deal with Central Asia, comprised of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, hit US$ 89 billion in 2023, making it by far the state’s largest business partner.

China’s trade was followed by the EU with$ 53.9 billion, Russia’s$ 44 billion and Turkey’s nearly$ 13 billion. Russia’s sphere of influence has long been viewed as having a broader scope, but China’s affect is now clearly shifting, at least in part as a result of the Ukraine conflict. &nbsp,

The Office of the United States Trade Representative has released data for the last year, but America’s combined deal with Central Asia in 2022 was a modest$ 4.4 billion.

This is in spite of the” United States Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity“, published in February 2020 under the preceding Trump presidency.

India trailed behind at$ 2 billion in 2023 followed by Iran at$ 1.5 billion in 2022 and Pakistan at just$ 309 million that same year.

Given their involvement in the International North-South Transport Corridor and the US’s waiver to conduct business with Afghanistan from Iran’s Chabahar port ( and apparently throughout the rest of the place ), India and Iran’s lower level of business is relatively unexpected.

In that regard, next spring, India and Iran signed a 10-year deal with the Chabahar port, but the Biden administration unexpectedly threatened to impose sanctions despite the waiver for India’s use of the city’s facilities.

Pakistan’s sluggish trade with Central Asia is due to its worsening hostilities with Taliban-run Afghanistan, which scuppered plans to join with the area after the US government left in 2021.

There are still programs to reconstruct and upgrade the Pakistan-Afghanistan-Uzbekistan rail, but rising security-related conflicts and money problems have impeded development.

Even so, the Minister of Maritime Affairs of Pakistan asserted in early January that all of the nations in Central Asia still want to deal through Muslim ships.

Now, Central Asia’s most trusted business associates are neighboring China and Russia. Although EU business is higher than that of Russia, there are reasons to believe that a sizable portion of it is transshipments to Russia to avoid American sanctions, as Brookings Institute older brother Robin Brooks has suggested.

Their business must also pass through the Black Sea, the South Caucasus, and Anatolia or the Baltic Sea. Similar to Turkey’s deal with Central Asia, which is also bidirectional and results in significantly higher costs and longer travel times.

Georgia is a crucial factor in facilitating trade between the EU and Turkey along the so-called” Middle Corridor,” but a potential resolution of Baku’s Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute was ease this process in the future.

A flowing issue over that debate, but, risks disrupting their trade.

Last year, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated to reporters that” Armenia does not have in our manner.” They shouldn’t serve as a boundary between Turkey and Azerbaijan. The Zangezur hall may remain and will be opened. The sooner they understand this, the better”.

He also called for demilitarizing Armenia and “eradicating” what he described as its “fascist philosophy” in vocabulary related to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s in the run-up to what the Kremlin has referred to as its” specific function” in Ukraine.

Even if a local conflict doesn’t start, the EU’s relationship with Georgia could be hampered by Tbilisi’s latest parliamentary elections and Tbilisi’s deteriorating unusual agents laws, which could complicate trade between the bloc and Central Asia.

Regardless of whether the Zangezur Corridor actually comes into being or not, China may end up being the biggest winner, which would cause the place to deteriorate further into its sphere of influence.

It is most likely that the US would be able to avoid that situation by facilitating Central Asia’s business with all of its partners, with the exception of China. That, in turn, would allow them to function as a social counterpoint to China.

For that to occur, the US will have to make some hard, if not controversial, decisions. For example, the incoming Trump presidency would need to evaluate some of its Russian punishment, many of which haven’t worked as punitively intended.

According to Maximilian Hess of the Foreign Policy Research Institute,” It may seem counterintuitive, given one of the key goals of the restrictions imposed on Russia has been to restrain deal with Russia, but deal with Russia has increased for Central Asia and the Caucasus since 2022,” according to Hess. Much of this has been caused by trade rerouting, whereby Western exports to Russia have fallen and were instead routed through the area.

Hess noted that sanctions have caused some difficulties in their trade, notably because Russia is no longer a member of SWIFT, but their only real impact on the area has been the de post forwarding of some pre-war Western business to Russia via Central Asia.

While specific information is hard to find, it’s obvious that a major share of the EU’s deal with the location is transshipments. That implies that true trade between the EU and Central Asia is likely to be lower than what is currently known, implying that China has more influence than the data suggest.

Greater financial clarity about Central Asia’s real existing business could be gained by reversing some sanctions, extending waivers to Western companies, or threatening secondary sanctions in response to violations, some of which might be included in a package deal with Russia on Ukraine.

That’s imperative to better understand the EU’s competitive advantages there vis-a-vis China, which could then be more effectively leveraged.

The second difficult choice is whether or not Iran will continue to impose sanctions on India for trade with Afghanistan ( and presumably also Central Asia ) via Iran’s Chabahar port.

Significantly, Trump’s Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellog, revealed over the weekend that the incoming administration &nbsp, plans to revive&nbsp, its “maximum pressure” policy against Iran.

India’s trade with Central Asia lags far behind its potential, and if the US wants to keep China’s influence in check in the strategic region, then it must rely in part on India as a counterbalance.

If India and Central Asia are confident that their businesses won’t face secondary sanctions for trading with Iran and other countries, this only can occur.

Pakistan’s best course of action would be to reconcile with Afghanistan and India, allowing India to establish a pioneering overland route to Central Asia, but that’s currently politically unrealistic. That’s why Iran must be relied upon as a transit state, which requires the US to be flexible with sanctions.

Finally, Trump ought to think about changing Biden’s pressure policy toward Georgia and urging the EU to do the same. Such a rapprochement would ensure the EU can continue trading with Central Asia across Georgia’s territory, thereby lifting present uncertainties.

In parallel, Trump’s incoming government could also consider taking the lead in resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute over the so-called” Zangezur Corridor” in order to avert another war.

Trump and his advisors are known for their business-minded worldview and thus may agree that compromises toward Russia, Iran-India and the South Caucasus ( Georgia and Armenia-Azerbaijan ) are acceptable to counter China’s rising influence in Central Asia.

If the US doesn’t take action, China will undoubtedly grow to be a dominant economic force in the strategic region, giving it more access to its resources and minerals and acting as a ready hub for more trade with Iran.

Because China already relies on imported energy by sea to give the US Navy leverage in any potential conflict with China, including through a blockade of the Malacca Strait chokepoint, those outcomes would conflict with US interests.

Meanwhile, greater overland trade between China and Iran via Central Asia would serve to neutralize Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy on Tehran.

Thus, it would be wise for the incoming Trump administration to emphasize Central Asia more prominently in its foreign policy strategy; otherwise, its planned pressure tactics against China and Iran will be less likely to succeed.

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The passing of a Japanese automaking icon – Asia Times

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Osamu Suzuki, mind of Japan’s Suzuki Motor Corporation since 1978 and the driving force behind India’s Maruti Suzuki, died on December 25, 2024. Overshadowed by Toyota, the Nissan-Renault play and the increase of China’s BYD, Suzuki was yet one of the great companies of the global auto industry.

Suzuki’s business, which was founded by his parents, has grown to become the tenth-largest manufacturer in the world and the largest in India, where Maruti Suzuki’s company holds more than 40 % of the business. Akio Toyoda, president of Toyota Motor, called him the parents of mini-vehicles – the “people’s vehicle” of Japan.

In 1930, Suzuki was born in Gifu Prefecture as Osamu Matsuda. After graduating from university and working at a local bank, he married Shoko Suzuki, the princess of Michio Suzuki, the leader of Suzuki Motor Corporation. He was adopted into the community in accordance with Chinese customs, changed his name to Osamu Suzuki, and started working for the company in 1958.

Osamu Suzuki rose up the corporate ladder, becoming president in 2000, president and CEO in 1978, and top managing chairman in 1972. In 2021, he retired to become a senior consultant to the business. His brother, Toshihiro, is now president and CEO of Suzuki Motor.

Michio Suzuki founded the Suzuki Loom Works in the Pacific beach town of Hamamatsu, Shizuoka Prefecture, in 1909. He began working on small gasoline-powered passenger vehicles in 1937, a job that was halted by World War II, as he sought to diversify alongside Japan’s commercial economy.

After the battle, he turned to motorized bike and riders, changing the name of his business to Suzuki Motor Co, Ltd in 1954. The business introduced its first rider car the following month.

This story is comparable to Toyota Motor, which was founded in 1926 as Toyoda Automatic Loom Works. Toyota Motor, a 1933-founded car department, was founded in 1937.

Suzuki Motor had a lot of success creating the ultra-compact light cars known as the” Kei jidosha” ( Kei cars ) in Japanese. The Suzuki Fronte sedan, its leader, the Alto, and another passenger vehicles types have proved to be strong dealers in Japan and elsewhere.

Since its debut in 1979, The Alto has gone through nine publications. Suzuki Carry cabs, first introduced in 1961, are also common with farmers and people driving Japan’s small remote roads.

To meet laws, Kei vehicles, which include passenger cars, lighting vans and modest pickup trucks, may be no more than 3.4 meters long, 1.48 meters wide and 2.0 meters higher, and have an engine displacement of less than 660 cubic centimeters.

Suzuki Motor expanded into small cars with up to 1.8 liter of engine displacement for the highest-performance versions over the years, but Kei cars also make up the majority of its engine production and sales.

Into India

Suzuki, who was prepared to transfer Suzuki Motor elsewhere in the 1980s, was concerned that the US market might not stand up to direct competition from Toyota, Nissan, and Honda.

He jumped at the chance when an Indian group arrived in Japan looking for a business that would provide money and expertise to the country’s infant auto industry. No one else did.

In 1981, Suzuki Motor entered into a joint venture with Maruti Udyog, buying 26 % of the company from the American government. Beginning in December 1983, Suzuki began manufacturing light vehicles, and as the company expanded, it became a merged subsidiary.

Listed on the Indian stock market in 2003, Maruti Suzuki is then 54.27%-owned by Suzuki Motor.

Maruti Suzuki dominates India’s fast-growing car industry. Image: X Screengrab

Ravindra Chandra Bhargava, president of Maruti Suzuki, said in his remarks regarding his encounter with Osamu Suzuki that “without his vision and vision, his willingness to take a chance that no one else was willing to take, his deep and abiding passion for India, and his huge abilities as a teacher, the American automotive industry could not have become the powerhouse that it has become. Osamu San has improved the lives of millions of people in this nation.

Osamu Suzuki was a hands-on, penny-pinching manager who frequently visited his factories to monitor how things were going and eliminate inefficiency, even eliminating the need for unnecessary lighting and switching to less expensive paint. He made several trips to India each year, documenting the introduction of Japanese factory practices.

The severe discipline, to which many local workers were unaccustomed, eventually sparked violent worker unrest in the summer of 2012. More than 500 employees were fired, and the business persevered. Suzuki told India’s Business Today,” I don’t consider this a union-management labor issue, I term it a criminal act”.

But he also said,” From 1945, when Japan lost in World War II, until 1960, we also had labor troubles. In Japan, I also had labor issues. Each nation experiences labor difficulties in its own time, which may vary in timing.

Incidentally, while Maruti Suzuki gets all the attention, the much smaller Pak Suzuki Motors is also the largest auto company in Pakistan. It started assembling cars in Pakistan in 1982 as a joint venture with the Pakistani government.

Suzuki attempted to enter the US market through a partnership with GM, which made its first investment in the Japanese company in 1981 and increased its stake in the business to more than 20 % in 2001. However, the partnership fell apart as GM’s finances deteriorated.

In 2006, GM sold most of its stake back to Suzuki, in 2008 it sold the rest and, in 2009, it filed for bankruptcy. Suzuki stopped selling passenger cars in the US in 2012. Suzuki then turned to Volkswagen, which bought 19.9 % of the company in 2010. However, the two sides broke out, and Suzuki repurchased VW shares in 2015.

Suzuki started providing Toyota with compact cars that were rebranded and offered through Toyota dealerships the following year, leading to significant increases in unit sales. In 2-19, Toyota took a 4.9 % stake in Suzuki for 96 billion yen ( about US$ 910 million at the time ) and Suzuki buying 0.2 % of Toyota for half that amount.

The partnership continues to evolve, with coordinated marketing in Japan, India, Europe, Africa and the Middle East. The two businesses made a deal in October 2024 that Suzuki would start making battery-powered electric SUVs for Toyota in Gujarat. Suzuki also makes hybrid vehicles.

Maruti Suzuki and the State of Gujarat reached an agreement last year to establish a new auto factory that will eventually produce one million vehicles annually. The fiscal year that runs until March 2029 is when operations are expected to begin.

In order to expand the production of electric vehicles, a fourth production line is planned at the company’s current factory in Gujarat. Scheduled to start operations in the year to March 2027, it will raise the facility’s annual production capacity from 750, 000 to one million vehicles. Gujarat’s total vehicle production should eventually reach two million vehicles.

In addition to the State of Haryana, construction on a new factory is underway. Work is anticipated to begin by the end of 2025 and by the 2028 annualized capacity will reach one million vehicles. In addition, the business is looking for a location in Haryana where it can set up a new factory that will have a one million vehicle annual capacity.

Maruti Suzuki’s total production capacity should increase from the current 2.35 million vehicles per year to 4 million, almost as many as the 4.3 million passenger cars sold by all automakers in India in 2024 if all of these plans are realized and older facilities retired.

Suzuki Motor also produces passenger cars in Asia in Indonesia and Thailand, but it intends to close its factory there because the country’s sales have been hampered by intensifying Chinese competition. The business has not yet provided specifics about plans to increase its investment in Indonesia this year. Suzuki withdrew from China’s auto market in 2018 but still makes motorcycles there.

In Europe, Suzuki makes passenger cars in Hungary, where it has almost 13 % of the market. Since 1991, Suzuki has invested more than$ 2 billion in Hungary. The Hungarian Investment Promotion Agency presented Magyar Suzuki with the Investors Lifetime Achievement Award in February 2024.

Suzuki makes open all-terrain vehicles ( dune buggies ) in the US state of Georgia. Because of their small size and light weight, it’s Kei cars are fatal traps in collisions with large American passenger cars and SUVs, and they have been restricted to farms or completely prohibited in a growing number of US states.

Suzuki is almost immune to Donald Trump’s planned tariffs and fierce competition in the world’s largest auto market, thanks to its low US and China sales, and its almost zero Chinese automakers ‘ presence in India, where they are almost entirely unaffected.

For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, Suzuki Motor forecasts a 4.5 % increase in consolidated sales to 5.6 trillion yen ($ 35.3 billion ) and an 11.4 % increase in operating profit to 550 billion yen ($ 3.5 billion ).

In comparison, Toyota is forecasting 2 % sales growth, a 19.7 % decline in operating profit and an operating margin of 9.8 %. Suzuki is also doing better than Honda, Nissan, Mitsubishi Motors and Subaru.

In terms of sales, Suzuki Motor was the 10th-largest automaker in the world at the start of 2024, according to market research firm Focus2Move. Company data show Suzuki selling 3.0 million passenger cars, compared with 3.7 million for 9th-ranked BYD and 9.7 million for top-ranked Toyota ( including its wholly-owned subsidiary Daihatsu Motor ). Suzuki is also the world’s eighth largest maker of motorcycles.

From January to November 2024, Suzuki Motor ( including its subsidiary Maruti Suzuki ) sold 670, 000 vehicles in Japan and 2.33 million elsewhere in the world, including 1.66 million in India.

In the financial year that ended in March 2024, Maruti Suzuki held the top spot in the Indian auto market, followed by Hyundai Motor and its affiliate Kia with nearly 20 %, Tata Motors with 14 %, and Mahindra &amp, Mahindra with 11 %, according to Statista data. MG ( owned by China’s SAIC ) had 1.3 %. Volvo ( owned by China’s Geely ) and BYD had less than 0.1 % combined.

India accounts for about 6 % of global passenger car sales that year, surpassing Japan in the former category in 2023. It is the third-largest national market for motor vehicles and fourth-largest in terms of passenger car sales worldwide. It will serve as Suzuki’s primary export market for the next ten years and be its largest market.

Sources: Statista data, Asia Times chart

Road ahead

The headquarters of Suzuki Motor is still headquartered in Hamamatsu, a city with a population of nearly 800,000 and where other well-known Japanese companies reside, including Yamaha Corporation, a manufacturer of musical instruments, and Hamamatsu Photonics, an optical device manufacturer. In the nearby city of Iwata, Yamaha Motor has its head office, which includes motorcycle, outboard, and jet-propelled water scooter manufacturers.

A memorandum of understanding between Hamamatsu City and the Indian Institute of Technology Hyderabad ( IIT-Hyderabad ) &nbsp ) was signed on December 26. It included arrangements for Indians to live and work in Hamamatsu, as well as for personnel exchange in science and engineering. It is the first such agreement between an IIT and a foreign government, according to IIT-Hyderabad Director Budaraju Srinivasa Murty.

The agreement comes after Suzuki Motor’s establishment of a 100%-owned subsidiary called Next Bharat Ventures IFSC Private Limited and a$ 40 million Next Bharat Venture Fund-1 in India in 2022 and the opening of the Suzuki Innovation Center at IIT Hyderabad in 2022. Bharat, deriving from Sanskrit, is another name for India.

Next Bharat Ventures invests in start-ups in the fields of agriculture, finance, supply chains and mobility through the Fund, and supports them with professional advice, networking and feasibility studies. The goal is to solve social issues and contribute to India’s economic growth. Next Bharat and Hamamatsu City have a parallel MOU signed.

President and CEO Toshihiro Suzuki says,” There are about 1.4 billion people in India, but we have only reached about 0.4 billion people … Through this]Next Bharat Ventures], we will connect with the’ Next Billion ‘ people of India, extending beyond mobility and becoming a part of India’s future story”. Responsible for his father’s legacy, he is driving it forward with gusto.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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Why China’s Ice Silk Road has Trump up in Arctic arms – Asia Times

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While American media called Republican President-elect Donald Trump a “madman” for suggesting he may purchase or “invade” Greenland, China is slowly building up a fresh maritime Silk Road in the Arctic Ocean with Russia’s support. &nbsp,

The United States of America believes that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity for purposes of regional security and freedom throughout the world, according to Trump in an X article on December 22, 2024.

He stated to the media on January 7 that he would not act out using military or economic force to occupy the automatic Norwegian territory.

Trump stated in August 2019 that, for proper reasons, he was considering purchasing Greenland. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen at the time stated that Greenland was not for sales and that Trump’s request was “absurd.” Trump called Frederiksen’s responses “nasty”.

At that time, the 2022 Ukrainian-Russian battle had not yet broken out and China-European Union connections were however relatively stable.

The Chinese state released” China’s Arctic Policy” in January 2018, outlining its strategy for “using Arctic sources in a lawful and moral manner.”

Those laws include:

  1. China’s involvement in the creation of Arctic shipping roads
  2. Participating in the investigation for and oppression of oil, gas, material and other non-living sources
  3. assisting in the restoration and use of fishing and different living things
  4. Participating in developing hospitality resources

” China is a significant player in Arctic interests. Geographically, China is a’ Near-Arctic State’, one of the western States that are closest to the Arctic Circle”, the Taiwanese authorities said in the policy statement. &nbsp,

” China has long been involved in Arctic matters. In 1925, China joined the Spitsbergen ( Svalbard ) Treaty and started to participate in addressing the Arctic affairs”, it added.

” Since therefore, China has exerted more work in the investigation of the Arctic, expanding the scope of actions, gaining more experience and deepening cooperation with other members”.

An opener in the Arctic Ocean Photo: Baidu.com

China has made significant progress over the past seven times in putting its Arctic plans into practice.

For instance, NewNew Shipping Line, a Chinese business that has collaborated with Russia, completed seven containership excursions between Asia and Europe via the Arctic Ocean in the second quarter of 2023. Last July, it launched a fresh Arctic way supporting Shanghai to St Petersburg.

A Shanxi-based journalist says the US suddenly recognized that China and Russia have joined forces to release the Northern Sea Route, or Ice Silk Road, which among other things, may lessen China’s Malacca Strait issue, but it’s too late now.

The Northern Sea Route has been overlooked by many people, but it is now catching China’s interest thanks to its distinctive geographical benefits, the author claims. &nbsp,

This route follows East Asia to Europe along the Russian Arctic coastline, which is cut by a third the way through the Strait of Malacca and the Suez Canal, he adds. A shorter tour results in lower costs, according to the author.” This is undoubtedly a wonderful advantage for China.”

China’s fuel supply will immediately experience a significant problem if one morning the US attempts to block the Strait of Malacca through defense methods. Thus, developing the Northern Sea Route is not only to save time and costs, but more importantly, to open up another backbone for China’s electricity protection”.

North America, Russia and Europe surround the North Pole. Photo: Google Earth

Foreign explorer Gao Dengyi read about the Svalbard Treaty in a guide while visiting Norway in 1991, according to a writer from Shandong who claims China had failed to conduct any scientific research at both the North and South Poles for many years. &nbsp,

The author claims that in the past, American capitalist countries led by the US had used various excuses to obstruct our study at the North and South Poles. We had asked for assistance from international companies and requested to use land from our neighbors. However, Gao’s Norway journey would only be able to solve this issue.

He claims that the Svalbard Treaty authorized China to conduct clinical studies at the North Pole, which led to the establishment of China’s second Arctic research facility, Yellow River Station, in Svalbard, Norway, in 2004. &nbsp,

14 nations formally ratified the Svalbard Treaty in 1920. Svalbard is a part of Norway, whereas other nations have the right to conduct clinical studies on the North Pole.

In 1925, Duan Qirui, mind of the Beiyang state, dominated by rulers in northwestern China, was forced by the West to sign the treaty. Due to the fact that China was at the time of its civil war, he allegedly did not take the time to thoroughly comprehend what he had signed.

Like Trump, China has an eye on Greenland’s proper importance in the Arctic. In 2018, Chinese state-owned contractor China Communications Construction Company (CCCC ) bid to build airports in Greenland, but it withdrew the bid in 2019.

Some Chinese clients had even marketed personal property in Svalbard, but the Norwegian government stopped the sale last July on national security grounds. &nbsp,

The first meeting of the subcommittee on Arctic shipping routes in Saint Petersburg was held on November 25, 2012, by China’s Minister of Transport Liu Wei and Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation ( Rosatom ) General Manager Alexey Likhachev.

Both sides agreed to further explore shipping development, transportation security and polar deliver technology and building. &nbsp,

The US Congress ‘ Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP ) expressed concerns about China’s expanding presence in the Arctic in a letter sent to the US Pentagon in October. &nbsp,

As a result of an arms race that may increase shipping insurance rates in the region, Elizabeth Buchanan, a top fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and expert on polar politics, told Nikkei Asia.

Yong Jian contributes to the Asia Times. He is a Chinese blogger who specializes in Chinese technologies, economy and politics. &nbsp,

Read: Blacklisting of Tencent, CATL energy US-China hostilities

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