Bangladesh-Pakistan thaw to redraw South Asia’s power map – Asia Times

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif saw an opportunity to revive generally strained relationships just days after Sheikh Hasina’s withdrawal and Muhammad Yunus ‘ appointment as Bangladesh’s time chief executive.

Both officials have met half in the last few weeks, opening the way for a political reset with significant implications for South Asia’s politics, following a rare hot conversation between Islamabad and Dhaka.

Bangladesh has acted to end a specific security area at Dhaka Airport for Pakistani people, waived the need for physical inspection of packages, and welcomed the first strong cargo ship to dock at Chittagong Port from Pakistan.

These actions suggest a major heat trend. Pakistan and Bangladesh were after a single country before they split up following a terrible conflict in 1971. Since therefore, Bangladesh has developed stronger relations with neighboring India, Pakistan’s historic enemy.

Even though Pakistan officially recognized Bangladesh in 1974, the historical repercussions of the separation of East Pakistan in 1971 have long persisted in diplomatic relations, with persistently conflicted political and historical narratives also periodically stoking conflicts.

Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Hasina’s parents, played a vital role in the isolation of Bangladesh, a tradition that added challenges to diplomatic relations. Sheikh Hasina’s relationship to India may have been influenced by that past.

However, Hasina’s ties with Islamabad were somewhat strained. Pakistan, which saw the tests when politically motivated, drew the ire of its own leaders from the Jamaat-e-Islami Party’s murder on conflict murder charges for events relating to 1971. In 2016, both countries expelled officials, more souring relationships.

On December 19, Sharif and Yunus met on the outside of the D-8 event in Cairo, Egypt, for their next meeting, taking place in New York City since September.

In Cairo, the two leaders expressed” satisfaction]with ] the increasing frequency of high-level contacts”, Sharif’s office said in a statement.

He expressed Pakistan’s “keen wish to increase bilateral cooperation, particularly in the areas of industry, people-to-people connections and social exchanges”.

In particular, Sharif mentioned the option for “new avenues of monetary cooperation” and industry in chemicals, concrete clinkers, medical goods, leather goods and the IT sector.

But, reflecting past scars, Yunus urged Sharif to” live the problems of 1971 to support Dhaka proceed forward with its relationship”, the Bangladesh official news agency reported.

” The issues have kept coming up,” he continued. Let’s settle those issues for us to move forward”, he told Sharif. It would be nice to resolve things “once and for all for the future generations”, Yunus said. &nbsp,

Before Hasina came to power in 1996, Dhaka had never previously requested an apology from Islamabad for the “genocide” committed during its war of independence.

In response, Pakistan only described the events as “regrettable” during former military dictator General Pervez Musharraf’s visit to Dhaka in July 2002.

Sharif informed his federal cabinet that his nation was beginning a new chapter of its relationship with Bangladesh upon returning from Egypt after a “positive engagement” in Cairo.

Additionally, he made the announcement that a high-level delegation would travel to Dhaka in February of next year, a ephemeral visit that might alter the dynamics of South Asian alliances.

Regional reset

India appears to be the biggest geopolitical loser as Islamabad and Dhaka get closer as a result of Hasina’s fall, with once-friendly relations experiencing significant decline in recent months.

Hasina maintained a complex relationship with India throughout her tenure. That included a rail connectivity agreement, which would enable India to transport goods to its far-off-the-beaten-path states using Bangladesh’s rail network.

Additionally, Bangladesh approved India’s request to send experts to assess the Teesta River Project, a key bilateral water-sharing initiative.

However, following her ouster amid violent protests, Hasina fled to New Delhi to seek refuge. Since then, Bangladesh has formally requested India’s assistance in extraditing Hasina from court proceedings.

India has acknowledged the request, but it has not provided any additional information, highlighting that Hasina is staying in India for safety reasons.

When protests began against Hasina, she was in China, which has deep and wide ties to Dhaka’s defense establishment, having supplied 72 % of Bangladesh’s military equipment.

The modernization of Bangladesh’s military under the” Forces Goal 2030” has the potential to boost Chinese arms imports further.

As she aimed to strengthen ties with China, Hasina made sure to avoid alienating India while attempting to maintain a strategic balance between the two geopolitical rivals.

However, unlike its relations with India, Bangladesh’s ties with China appear unchanged in the transition from Hasina to Yunus. Yunus was quickly welcomed as the interim leader in Beijing.

On the UNGA in New York in September, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a call to Yunus. That same month, Beijing’s ambassador to Bangladesh Yao Wen also called on Yunus.

” No matter what changes have taken place in the domestic situation of Bangladesh, China’s commitment to develop China-Bangladesh relations remains unchanged”, Yao said.

In addition to their conversation, Yunus and Sharif discussed reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation ( SAARC ), a multilateral body that hasn’t held a summit since 2014.

The last summit took place in Nepal, while the planned 2016 summit in Pakistan was canceled after India, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Afghanistan chose not to participate under Delhi’s influence.

” I am a big fan of the idea of SAARC. I keep harping on the issue. Even if the summit is just for a photo session, Yunus said,” I want a summit of SAARC leaders because it will convey a powerful message.”

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Yin-yang mindset could help heal the polarized West – Asia Times

The Tao Te Ching of Lao Tzu can help society transition to a new celestial culture.

– William Irwin Thompson

The West usually thrives on fragmentation. Countries are categorized as either governments or tyrannies, allies or adversaries. People are labeled liberal or conservative, oligarchs or patriotic, multiculturalist or nativist. The middle ground has become la extract, a forgotten and unknown place.

American cultural scientist William Irwin Thompson, in his text” Coming into Being”, proposed a way forward through the old Chinese yin-yang system. He argued that this alternative view provides a means to promote a world philosophy that is rooted in harmony and reciprocity and transcends the divisive beliefs of modernity.

Origins of dichotomy

China’s yin-yang structure has origins in shamanism. Ancient cultures shared the pantheistic belief that everything in nature—trees, river, animals, inert objects—was interrelated and permeated by spirits. Fact was seen as systematic and undivided.

As societies emerged, integrated animism gave way to duality paradigms. The Proto-Indo-Europeans, for example, developed distinctions such as conflict and purchase, light and darkness.

Zoroaster, the leader of the first polytheistic religion, introduced a duality science. He described an eternal struggle between Ahura Mazda, the clever lord of light, wisdom, and buy, and Angra Mainyu, the dangerous nature of darkness, deceit, and conflict. This spiritual framework influenced after monotheistic customs and reinforced dualistic thinking.

The Chinese, however, took a unique way. They envisioned dichotomy no as oppositional but as complement. Their yin-yang system placed a premium on the powerful interaction of opposing forces, which are mutually dependent and coexist in a whole. This view permeated Chinese science, culture and their knowledge of creation.

The Chinese see of Creation:” When the yin and the yang, first united, separated long, the hills poured forth water”.

The Chinese language reflects the deep relationships between yin-yang and natural phenomena, mainly attraction. The character for yin encompasses meanings such as shady, cloudy, moon, and negative ( magnetic ) charge. The figure for yang indicates bright, beautiful, hill and good charge.

During the Zhou Dynasty, the Chinese discovered electrical rocks, or lodestones, and used them to make the initial magnetic compasses. These” north tips” consisted of a magnet knife on a tray marked with the four cardinal directions. This first map reflects the yin-yang process: north is west and north is yang.

The original Chinese map or” South pointer” is written in this language. The knife was made of magnet. North is yin, west is yang.

The concept of qi ( orch’i ) further illustrates this connection. Qi represents the pressure and connection between yin and yang, usually translated as” celestial power”, “vital pressure”, or “matter-energy”. Sinologist Joseph Needham, who was influencted by quantum mechanics, described shu as an interaction between matter and energy.

The Chinese place the dramatic qi in the acid character for the current word “electricity.” Tai Chi and Qigong’s acid figures use the same extreme. The Eight Trigrams, the base of the I Ching, even alludes to electric events.

The trigram Zhen is associated with sudden, active power and represents thunder. The trigram Li is associated with heating and represents fire and intensity. Li represents the characteristics of comfort, brightness, and change.

The Eight Trigram and their features, eight healthy events, and their characteristics or tendencies.

Systematizing the yin and yang

The Taiwanese reasoned that they should apply this principle in the development of their lifestyle after they realized that the yin-yang polarisation is essential to the universe. This would guarantee that their civilization would be in tune with the Tao, the” source” of yin and yang.

Thus the Chinese defined all aspects of existence as yin or yang voltages: Heaven ( the sun ) and Earth, male and female, growth and decay, high and low, space and time, advancing and retreating, everything and nothing, engaged and susceptible, movement and relax.

Moreover, almost all aspects of Chinese culture were based on the yin-yang principle: architecture, art, philosophy, statecraft, eating habit and medicine and, most widely, its Chinese social structure.

Confucius incorporated the eight family members into the Eight Trigrams, thereby enshrined human existence in the yin-yang cosmology.

Confucius, who studied the I Ching his entire life, based his social construct on the I Ching. The Eight Trigrams ‘ attributes included the eight family members. This “embedded” society in the yin-yang cosmology of the I Ching. His Middle Way became the norm in all facets of Chinese society, both public and private:

Personal life:

Self-Interest ( Yin ): Prioritizing oneself can harm relationships and social harmony.

Altruism ( Yang ): Excessive self-sacrifice might lead to neglect of personal needs and burnout.

The Confucian middle path is based on reciprocity ( shu), where one strives for fairness and reciprocity.

Continuity:

Tradition ( Yin ): Rigid adherence to tradition can hinder progress.

Innovation ( Yang ): Overreacting without respect for tradition could cause chaos or identity loss.

Middle Way: Confucius advocates adhering to fundamental ethical principles rooted in tradition while remaining adaptable and ready to face up to the need for change.

Governance:

Authority ( Yin ): Overly strict leadership risks alienation and resentment.

Yang’s rule of thumb could cause disorder or disrespect.

Middle Way: A leader should strike a balance between being steadfast and compassionate in order to uphold justice and the people’s trust.

The Confucian Middle Way is the way of qi, the path between the yin-yang polarities. When the polarities are in balance, society is in equilibrium, and frictional loss will be at a minimum.

Bridging worldviews

In” Coming into Being”, William Irwin Thompson championed the yin-yang worldview, particularly as articulated by Lao Tzu, as a pathway to transcending modern dualism. He thought it was crucial to creating a new planetary culture for humanity:

– Lao Tzu’s teachings emphasize the unity of opposites ( e. g., yin and yang ). This is crucial for overcoming the divisive, binary thinking that often characterizes modern politics, economics, and cultural discourse.

– Lao Tzu’s vision of leadership as non-coercive, humble, and in service to the greater good offers a blueprint for governance in a planetary culture based on a decentralized, cooperative global ethos.

– Humanity is on the cusp of a transformative phase in cultural evolution, moving toward a global civilization. A spiritual and philosophical framework is provided by the Tao Te Ching to navigate this transition.

The best elements of Eastern and Western traditions must be incorporated into a new planet culture. The Tao Te Ching, with its profound simplicity and universal appeal, could serve as a bridge between these worldviews.

Thompson stressed the need to reconcile opposites in all aspects of life: heart and mind, East and West, spirit and matter, the personal and the social. Lao Tzu and Confucius both said,” As they would say:

Don’t be progressive or conservative, be both,

Don’t be materialistic or spiritual, be both,

Don’t be idealistic or realistic, be both.

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Hong Kong dollar peg at risk in Trump’s coming fight with China – Asia Times

Under Donald Trump’s coming second administration, Hong Kong may likely play a significant role in the wider industry, security, and political conflict between the United States and China. If therefore, the Hong Kong currency’s clamp to the US franc had come under US fire.

Trump is expected to make a new policy statement regarding Hong Kong-related problems, from the city’s role in assisting Russia in obtaining dual-use Chinese goods and avoiding American restrictions to the detention of pro-democracy activists and politicians to the economic capital’s role in reported money laundering that is against US interests, according to some observers.

Before Trump emphatically won the US presidential election on November 5, the former senator vowed to free Jimmy Lai, a pro-democracy activist and media mogul, from jail. Lai, who stands accused of fomenting Hong Kong’s 2019-2020 turmoil, is obviously one of Beijing’s negotiations cards on the bargaining table between Chinese and US officials. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Six additional abroad Hong Kong activists were detained on Christmas Eve after their arrest warrants were issued by Hong Kong’s federal security police on the charge of inciting subversion, colluding with international forces, and getting worse. The police also imposed HK$ 1 million ( US$ 128, 425 ) bounties on each of them. &nbsp,

Tony Chung and Chloe Cheung, two young activists, social critics, Victor Ho, a former city councillor, Carmen Lau, and former comedian and performer Joseph Tay are among the six. Ho and Tay are in Canada, and Tay is in the UK.

The six, according to Hong Kong’s Security Secretary Chris Tang, have allegedly violated international law by speaking out, posting on social media, and influencing foreign governments to impose sanctions on Hong Kong authorities and courts.

As of December 25, 19 people have been arrested on suspicion of violating federal safety in Hong Kong.

The Hong Kong government’s “relentless achievement of pro-democracy protesters outside its borders is a overt excess that ignores global standards,” according to Chris Patten, the previous government of Hong Kong and a supporter of United Kingdom-based Hong Kong Watch.

He demanded that the governments of the UK, the US, and Canada “agissent quickly and collectively to protect these campaigners from international persecution, ensuring their protection, and standing strong against Beijing’s attempts to undermine the very political values we hold lovely.”

hub of financial violence

The new arrest warrants does encourage hawkish American politicians to call for more harsh methods, such as the removal of some Hong Kong-based lenders from the SWIFT financial exchange program, which, if implemented, could lead to a de-pegging of the Hong Kong dollars and US buck. &nbsp,

In a letter to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in late November, John Moolenaar, president of the US House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), expressed the agency’s “deep problem” with regard to Hong Kong’s reported “increasing function as a financial hub for cash laundering, sanctions evasion, and other illegal financial activities.

According to him,” Hong Kong has shifted from a trusted global financial center to a crucial player in the deepening authoritarian axis of the People’s Republic of China ( PRC ), Iran, Russia, and North Korea,” following the National Security Law of 2020, which subjected the country to the CCP’s rule. &nbsp,

” We must now question whether longstanding US policy towards Hong Kong, particularly towards its financial and banking sector, is appropriate”.

Moolenaar claimed that the US Treasury has taken preliminary action against businesses based in Hong Kong, where the city has since become a global leader in practices like importing and re-exporting prohibited Western technology to Russia, creating front companies to purchase prohibited Iranian oil, facilitating the trade of Russian-sourced gold, and managing “ghost ships” that engage in illegal trade with North Korea.

He stated that the committee is interested in learning how the US Treasury will combat Hong Kong’s financial system’s financing of money laundering and sanctions evasion.

Jesse Baker, assistant to the US deputy treasury secretary, met with Hong Kong financial institutions, including HSBC, StanChart and Bank of China ( Hong Kong ) in Hong Kong on December 11, warning them not to engage businesses with Russia or help Russia evade western sanctions, Nikkei reported.

In fact, Trump met with his top officials to decide the United States ‘ response after Beijing passed the Hong Kong National Security Law on June 30, 2020. &nbsp,

At the time, Trump had considered forcing an end to Hong Kong’s peg policy, but opted against the move due to commerce and treasury officials ‘ opposition. Instead, he signed an executive order to end Hong Kong’s special status.

The Biden administration has not discussed de-pegging the Hong Kong dollar from the US greenback over the past four years.

In November 2022, markets fretted that Hong Kong’s peg policy would end as the city’s currency had repeatedly touched 7.85 per US dollar, the lower end of the allowed peg range of 7.75-7.85, amid rising US interest rates. &nbsp,

Bill Ackman, a billionaire investor at the time, predicted that the Hong Kong dollar would decline and that its peg to the US dollar would collapse. Boaz Weinstein, a veteran trader, claimed to have a 200-to-1 payoff potential when he bet against the Hong Kong dollar. &nbsp,

De-pegging debate

Some Hong Kong experts said they don’t believe the Taiwan Straits will soon experience a de-pegging unless a sudden war breaks out. However, they did not rule out the possibility of de-pegging in the future.

According to Vincent Lam, a financial columnist and fund manager based in Hong Kong, it’s unlikely that Trump will act to stop the country from using US dollars because this conflicteth with US interests. She noted that Trump has vowed to impose a 100 % tariff on BRIC nations that engage in de-dollarization schemes. &nbsp,

He added, however, that if the Hong Kong government doesn’t improve its balance sheet, it runs the risk of depleting its$ HK$ 550 billion fiscal reserves and will have to abandon its peg policy in the coming years. He claimed that in order to maintain financial stability, Hong Kong can peg its dollar instead to a basket of global currencies.

Allan Zeman, the founder of Lan Kwai Fong Group, stated in a recent interview that the Hong Kong government should have a plan B for its currency peg policy.

He claimed that a peg to the US dollar would hurt Hong Kong’s competitiveness and economy if US inflation and interest rates remained high during the Trump 2.0 era. He claimed that in this situation, a de-pegging might be beneficial for Hong Kong.

In an article, Charles Gave, the founder of the Hong Kong-based Gavekal research group, predicted that Hong Kong might become the potential home for a new international financial system in the coming years. &nbsp,

He claimed that many Asian exporters have kept their income in Hong Kong over the past few years, leading to an increase in the city’s US dollar reserves. He claimed that if these deposits were converted into Hong Kong dollars and lent to Asian nation borrowers, a new pyramid of US dollar-denominated credit would emerge that US authorities would not be able to control. &nbsp,

Hong Kong may represent a new flashpoint in Trump’s fight with China, according to a Bloomberg commentary on December 21. Trump may look into Hong Kong’s peg policy again because he doesn’t like being told he has no say in something.

Yong Jian contributes to Asia Times. He is a Chinese journalist who specializes in Chinese technology, economy and politics.

Read: Call for HK to prepare for possible US sanctions

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No sure or easy path to peace in post-war Syria – Asia Times

Photos from Syria over the past year have revealed joy on the roads as millions of people celebrate the ending of 24 years of oppression under Bashar al-Assad.

After quite a lengthy and drawn-out stalemate, it is unusual for rebels to be able to tip the balance in their favor and get a war with impunity. What will come next, though, which is the apparent answer? Looking at the few other instances like this, record suggests that the political prospect of Syria could be threatened by new forms of violence.

In 2011, Muammar Gaddafi’s state was defeated by an awning partnership of rebel makes known as the National Transition Council. In addition, a popular vote for independence that season helped South Sudan defeat Omar al-Bashir.

In Idi Amin’s Uganda, an empire was forged by neighboring Tanzania between two rival uprisings in 1979. Their mutual military campaign came to an end with Amin’s beat shortly after.

In each of these situations, the quick aftermath of a rebel success teaches a lesson. More violence is likely to be on the horizon where a dispersed alliance of military organizations finds itself in a political vacuum.

Delicate and shifting partnerships

Repression is frequently fuelled by the hardships of oppressive systems. They also serve as a common enemy, allowing foe armed groups to put their differences aside and work up for a common cause, especially when they see an opportunity.

Eventually, however, move periods generate doubt over political prospects. This may make it challenging for previous allies to maintain unity.

During the revolt against Muammar Gaddafi, some Libyan militias backed the National Transition Council. However, they quickly turned into violent foes in a fight for political sway in Tripoli’s newly formed transitional government.

These innovative forms of violence may appear to be localized turf war in a vacuum of power. However, party leaders frequently make an effort to get themselves a better position because the federal level offers political spoils.

In contrast, these weaker militias may be prone to changing loyalties so as to close up on the winning side when strong factions fight for national energy in the presence of several smaller and more concentrated militias.

Fighting in Libya throughout 2017 exhibited this kind of unscrupulous flip-flopping. Local militias like the Kiniyat Brigade switched affiliations to a rival Tripoli-based foe group that claimed to represent the country’s genuine government.

Soldiers devoted to Libya’s Tripoli-based perfect secretary, Abdulhamid Dbeibah, in 2022. &nbsp, Photo: STR / EPA via The Talk

South Sudan’s issue has long been characterized as having an racial component. The main competitor officials, Salva Kiir and Riek Machar, belonged to the country’s two largest ethnic parties, Dinka and Nuer. However, this obscures a more corporate and intricate alliance constellation.

Many of the organizations that have fought against Kiir are racial Dinkas, and evil opposite, as a result of interests shifting as each leader gains a foothold. Conflicts between Machar-held troops and a co-ethnic splinter group known as Kitgwang, which opposes his authority, have been some of the most recent instances of violence.

According to fluid and shifting coalitions, many reports from foreign observers and mediators have documented the problems of facilitating and maintaining a steady agreement on the terms of the transition in these nations.

Armed parties in Syria have already shown like tendencies. The Military Operations Command, the coalition of Arab opposition parties that brought down Assad’s program, exists in title simply.

While previous coalitions supported by Turkey and the US have merged and splintered over time, the dominant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ( HTS), is itself an amalgam of at least four distinct militias.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Units leader, has stated that all rebel groups likely “be disbanded and the soldiers will be trained to join the ranks of the security government.” However, history suggests that a rival is likely to come from one of these alliances to contest the legality of HTS’s declare to guide the transition.

For smaller parties forced to choose a area, this will add a fresh element of uncertainty.

Mohammed al-Bashir, who was appointed by the insurgents as caretaker prime minister of Syria’s intermediate state, delivers a speech in the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, Syria. &nbsp, Photo: António Pedro Santos / EPA via The Talk

Looking ahead to primaries

Yet where a steady intermediate partnership may be upheld, peace may finally get threatened by the result of a winner-takes-all election. In post-Amin Uganda, the two party officials who overthrew him held important jobs in a transitory power-sharing state. Violence was avoided for as long as they were in power.

But when votes produced a distinct gain for Milton Obote in 1980, his foe, Yoweri Museveni, relaunched his revolution. Uganda’s so-called tree war may continue until 1986, when Museveni’s troops took the capital, Kampala, by force.

Ethiopia’s post-war move fared somewhat better after the triumph of an&nbsp, allied insurgent assault&nbsp, on the autocratic Derg program in 1991. The majority of Ethiopia’s insurgent groups had clear and distinct ethno-territorial foundations, and as a result, the new constitution created an tribal region in a federal system, devolving power to racial regions.

If local or regional elections had been held second, would that have allowed former rebels to stake out a political stake in favor of them rather than solely relying on results from national elections?

Unfortunately, however, at least two uprisings returned to low-level crime throughout the 1990s, accusing the new state of exclusion and attempts to undermine their political profitability.

In any case, independence appears improbable in Syria. The majority of the country’s militias, aside from the northeast’s Kurdish separatists, have less apparent connections to particular statistical groups and frequently overlap in their spheres of influence.

The national-level social game will continue to be in high stakes and susceptible to aggressive forms of conflict because HTS is now calling for a consolidated condition with no federal areas.

Chelsea Johnson is professor in international relations, University of Liverpool

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Central Asia as emerging crucible of a new Great Game – Asia Times

The threat of wonderful power conflict, thought by some to be a remnant of the 20th century, has been powerfully resurrected by the war in Ukraine.

A new, possibly more complex, theater for this opposition is emerging in Central Asia as the dust settles on the fast repercussions of this conflict.

Central Asia serves as a possible focus point where the interests of Russia, China, and the United States are extremely intertwined with frequently palpable tension, despite observers ‘ long-recognized the state’s geopolitical significance.

Crucially, unlike other contested places, two of these capabilities share broad borders with the location, adding a level of physical contact that intensifies the stakes.

Central Asia, comprising Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, finds itself at a critical moment.

Generally a crossroads of dynasties, the state’s post-Soviet freedom has been marked by a delicate balancing act, navigating the effects of its strong companions.

However, the lack of a strong, indigenous method of social security leaves it vulnerable. The region’s dispersed political and economic landscape creates a political vacuum that big powers are extremely excited to complete, often dubbed the least included region on earth.

Despite appearing to be a weakness, this lack of a unified local identity ironically presents both a challenge and an opportunity to withstand the currents of intense power conflict.

The integration of interests is apparent. Central Asia continues to be a vital transit point, a buffer against perceived European intrusion, and a vital sphere of influence for Russia.

The conflict in Ukraine, while straining Moscow’s sources, has instantly highlighted the importance of its “near internationally” for financial sustenance and other trade routes.

Central Asia serves as the foundation of China’s continental connectivity, a source of essential resources, and a crucial component of its westward expansion, according to its Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ).

Despite going through a period of fluctuating engagement, the United States still has interests in preventing the unchallenged dominance of either Russia or China in this strategically important region. It also maintains interests in fighting terrorism, supporting democratic governance, with a waning emphasis.

This integration of these great strength passions, however, is not essentially harmless. The potential for tension is evident. Russia, weakened by the Ukraine conflict, is afraid of China’s growing financial and possible social impact.

While recent language emphasizes collaboration, the long-term repercussions of China’s ascension in the region are a source of uneasiness in Moscow. On the other hand, the US is concerned that Russia and China might impose more oppressive policies and restrict the political place in Central Asia.

Network projects, security cooperation agreements and even social exchanges have become arenas for delicate, but important, power projection. Without a strong regional framework, these competing interests risk escalating into a modern-day” Great Game”, albeit with more actors and more complex dynamics.

Herein lies the potential saving grace: the C5 1 framework. The five Central Asian states and the United States are paired together in this diplomatic platform, which provides a unique opportunity for informal collective action while maintaining the flexibility that individual states need to interact with all external powers.

Unlike rigid security alliances that would inevitably alienate at least one major player, the C5 1 provides a venue for dialogue, coordination on issues of mutual concern ( such as border security, economic development, and environmental challenges ) and, crucially, a platform for the Central Asian states to articulate their collective interests.

The strength of the C5 1 lies in its informality. It enables countries in Central Asia to communicate with the US without being directly in the crosshairs of Russia or China. In addition, it gives the US a place to establish itself and exert influence in the area despite its explicit military responsibilities.

This adaptable structure can be used to increase one’s resilience against excessive pressure from one great power. The C5 1 can help to create a stronger sense of regional identity by promoting intra-regional cooperation on practical issues, making Central Asia less susceptible to serve as a launching pad for external rivalries.

However, the C5 1 is not a panacea. Its viability depends on the persistence of all parties and the ability of the Central Asian states to put forth a front that is unwavering. Its potential may be undermined by internal divisions and varying degrees of alignment with external powers.

Beyond primarily addressing economic and developmental concerns, the framework must evolve to include more nuanced discussions on security and strategic autonomy.

Central Asia is positioned as a region ripe for intensified great power competition in the post-Ukraine landscape. In the absence of effective regional integration and collective security measures, external actors are eager to make use of vulnerabilities.

Yet within this challenge lies an opportunity. With its inherent flexibility and inclusive nature, the C5 1 framework provides a promising platform for encouraging collective action and giving Central Asian states the ability to navigate this complex environment.

Central Asia’s future will depend largely on the viability and evolution of frameworks like the C5 1 in shaping a future in which cooperation, rather than competition, determines its course, or whether it becomes merely a center for great power rivalry or a region that successfully exploits its strategic location to its own advantage.

Understanding and constructive dialogue with this dynamic will be essential for policymakers in Washington, Beijing, and Moscow to ensure stability and prosperity, not just for Central Asia but for the wider Eurasian landmass.

The Maqsut Narikbayev Institute for Networking and Development ( MIND ) in Astana, Kazakhstan, is home to Miras Zhiyenbayev, the head of the foreign policy and international studies program.

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The truth about US bases on Okinawa – Asia Times

Okinawa&nbsp, isn’t in the media so many these days. &nbsp, Chinese&nbsp, attempts to grab&nbsp, Philippine&nbsp, country and smother&nbsp, Taiwan&nbsp, get the most interest. That doesn’t suggest Okinawa is any less important.

A familiar British author who writes about international affairs just turned to Okinawa. He completed some research before asking a few questions.

Some are admirable, but others are accurate reflections of widespread misunderstandings about Okinawa that are even perpetuated by some Taiwanese authorities and activists. Here’s my attempt to set him right.

Geostrategic Value

What is Okinawa’s existing importance in terms of potential Chinese anger, and what part does it perform geopolitically?

Okinawa ( and other territories that are part of the district ) are geopolitical landscape. &nbsp, They form part of the&nbsp, First&nbsp, Island Chain&nbsp, that blocks the Chinese People’s Liberation Army ( PLA )’s easy access to the Pacific Ocean. &nbsp,

Similar to how important outposts on and in Okinawa are for both American and Japanese military operations, both defensive and offensive. From dynamic warfare to intelligence gathering and targeting.

What kind of effects might an war by China have on Okinawa?

Operations defending Taiwan would require US and Japanese foundations on Okinawa and other locations in the Ryukyus. &nbsp, But, they are also likely Army target if the Taiwanese attack Taiwan. &nbsp,

What would a Chinese attack on Taiwan do to all of Japan, in addition to that problem?

If powerful, it may help the PRC to remove and occupy Japan. And it might stifle and possibly damage the Japan-US defense partnership, which is the foundation of the wider social alliance.

US Bases on Okinawa

In Oura Bay off the coastline of Henoko, Nago City, in Okinawa, function is still being done to relocate the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma in August 2024. Image: JAPAN Forward

How do Okinawans feel about basic military operations and the development of Henoko, a US military foundation? &nbsp,

Depending on who you ask, it depends. &nbsp, Governor&nbsp, Denny Tamaki&nbsp, may say that “all” Okinawans oppose the foundations. That is, of course, unfounded. Then, just “anti-base” candidates may win Okinawa votes. They don’t. The “pro-base” individuals are doing rather well lately. &nbsp,

Furthermore, if Tamaki’s claim was true, there would be popular and regular protests. There haven’t been for years and there aren’t.

When considering the “protesters”, most are older individuals and many are from outdoors Okinawa. Younger Okinawans are most concerned about having kids, taking care of elderly relatives, and getting along with life. The foundations are, by and large, only part of the wood.

The foundation is primarily supported by the people of Henoko, the town where the new US Marine atmosphere service is being constructed. &nbsp, This gets much attention. &nbsp,

Realize that in other parts of Okinawa Prefecture – say, farther down the network– there is also substantial support for the Japan&nbsp, Self Defense Force&nbsp, ( JSDF) and even the US military presence – to protect from China. &nbsp,

In some places, Chinese fishermen can no longer access standard fishing basis because of harassment from the&nbsp, China Coast Guard&nbsp, and Chinese fish and&nbsp, sea militia&nbsp, ships. Visitors want the JSDF to be sent to their defenses by the authorities to do something.

Why has the departure, mainly limited drawback, of the US army never been realized?

The British troops have, in fact, withdrawn, and there are much fewer compared to 40-50 centuries ago. &nbsp, Even, more are leaving – with the shift of hundreds of Marines to Guam really getting underway. &nbsp,

The number of US military installations on Okinawa has also decreased. And the coaching activities&nbsp, US forces&nbsp, can do are also constrained. However, to train to support Japan, the US causes often have to keep Japan. &nbsp,

In the end, the Japanese state wants the Americans to support Japan. &nbsp, However, the central government has very generally declined to properly support the Americans officially. It favors relying on US forces as a cushion to deal with problems from Okinawa. &nbsp,

Saving area and people&nbsp,

Rahm Emanuel, the US embassy to Japan, and Yonaguni Island and the mayor of Itokazu enjoy friendly relations in May 2024. ( Photo courtesy of USAmbJapan X )

Would the locals believe they are getting enough aid from the Tokyo state?

Again, it depends on the neighborhood’s people you speak with. &nbsp, Some do, some don’t. Even those in power like Governor Tamaki and the “anti-base” antagonism are aware of how generously compensated they are for keeping the bases. And all they have to do is” complain” .&nbsp,

The key government has for many years provided direct support payments of anywhere between US$ 1 and US$ 1 billion annually. That’s a lot of money for a little people. &nbsp, You’d consider the isle of Okinawa may be laid in gold.

One very wonders, what happened to all the income? The state of Okinawa does not require audit requests. More than a few Tokyo Diet people may share the same feelings.

Why does it seem like there are more hostilities on the island?

They aren’t rising. European writers frequently, if not always, have a tendency to interpret Okinawa’s situation differently. Nevertheless, Chinese subversion is encouraging a smaller group of rowdy local activists to protest the&nbsp, military bases&nbsp, and the Japanese military presence, and incessantly calling for ‘ independence.’

Regarding the effect of China, one may question Governor Tamaki about his travels to the PRC. &nbsp,

Is there a predominance of US defense personnel who are convicted of crimes and given resistance?

No. US staff who behave improperly are punished by either the Chinese or US government. They are not granted resistance. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The place is sparsely populated around United States Marine Corps Air Station Futenma. Ginowan, Okinawa Prefecture, May 28. Photo: ©Sankei by Naoki Otake via JAPAN Forward

When the US military damages the setting, how is accountability handled?

Over the past 30 years, the Americans have been sympathetic about these concerns. &nbsp, They try not to poison, and if they do, they clean it up. Go back in time and remember that no one, either Japanese or Americans, was as careful about climate pollutants as they should have been. &nbsp, The “pollution” debate is often used by the anti-base group and by other Okinawans trying to shake down the central authorities for money.

Why is Okinawa’s standard of living said to be among the lowest in Japan?

This isn’t correct. &nbsp, The standard of living is, in reality, very great – and Okinawa is one of the more prosperous-looking regions. It has an atmosphere of strength– even if it’s just a” sugar large” from central government obligations. If you travel around Japan and explore weary, decaying provincial towns, you’ll know.

One may question why Okinawan’s educational standards are lower and the market is more diverse. Probably because central government funding causes a lack of creativity or intensity in the leadership of the local authorities.

Some of them believe that it’s simpler to collect monthly payments from the government than to entice businesses that did offer opportunities to young people in particular. &nbsp,

The central government of Japan was contribute more to the country. For instance, they might alter the rules to make Taiwan’s economy and trade more enticing, for instance, and create new business opportunities. &nbsp,

Hibiscus, a local rose ubiquitous on Okinawa. Photo: ©Agnes Tandler via JAPAN Forward

Grant Newsham, a resigned US Marine captain, is the publisher of&nbsp,” When China Attacks: A Warning to America”.

With type authority, this article originally appeared on JAPAN Forward. Read the original below.

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Rethinking the decline of the eastern Roman Empire – Asia Times

Many people are fascinated by the issue of why empires drop. But in the hunt for an answer, thoughts may run wild. Recent research has suggested that climate change and illness are to blame for the rise and drop of ancient civilizations like the Roman Empire. This has sparked debates about whether “536 was the worst time ever alive.”

A volcanic eruption that season led to a dust mask that restricted sunlight in some parts of the world. This is said to have resulted in a drop in the global heat along with a number of volcanic explosions in the ensuing ten years.

The Justinian disease, which was the first and most serious documented case of it to strike the eastern Roman Empire ( also known as the Roman Empire ), was a complication that millions of people died from between 541 and 544.

There is a lot of debate over the length and amount of the Justinian disease, and studies show that there is no literary evidence for the effects of the sand veil in the eastern Mediterranean. Despite this, many academicians also believe that the eastern Roman Empire was hampered by the weather and the outbreak of the plague.

Our study, which was published in November, shows that these statements are wrong. They were derived from the projection of smaller case studies and isolated finds onto the whole Roman Empire.

A unique situation can be used to represent the use of large data from vast regions that were once under the Roman Empire. Our results reveal that the eastern Mediterranean had a new record for community and business in the 6th century rather than a decline in it.

The eastern Roman Empire expanded most in the sixth decade. The kingdom was reputedly destroyed by climate change and the disease during the years 533 and 565, when it was portrayed as being destroyed by mild purple. &nbsp, Map: Simeon Netchev / World History Encyclopedia via The Talk

We analyzed data from various nations and regions on a microscopic and large scale. Micro-scale information included identifying little regions and identifying the location of the decline in this area or site. Case reports, such as the site of the ancient capital of Elusa in the north-western Negev desert in tomorrow’s Israel, were reexamined.

This page was said to have declined in the middle of the 6th century by earlier research. The results of a review of the coal 14 method, which measures the age of an item made of organic material, and the concrete data used to day the site, were inconclusive. The reduction simply started in the 7th era.

New databases were created using historic study, excavation, and shipwreck finds, and were used to compile large-scale data. The study and digging databases, which contained tens of thousands of sites, were used to chart the common changes in the size and number of sites for each traditional era.

The accident collection displayed the number of disasters for each half-century. This was employed to show the change in the level of marine trade.

Changes to naval commerce ( 150–750 )

Our findings showed that there was a great relationship in the historical record for several parts, covering modern-day Israel, Tunisia, Jordan, Cyprus, Turkey, Egypt and Greece. Additionally, there was a strong relationship between the various information forms.

The population and economy did not decline in the southeast Roman Empire’s 6th century, according to both the smaller case research and the larger data. In truth, there seems to have been an increase in growth and population. The drop took place in the seventh century, so it cannot be directly related to the plague or the sudden onset of climate change.

It appears that the Roman Empire was at its height in the seventh era. However, the whole region was plunged into a downward spiral as a result of Roman errors and their failure to deal with their Arabic foes. This made the two empires weakened, allowing Islam to increase.

This does not mean that the environment in some parts of the world did not change during this time. In Scandinavia, for instance, there was a pronounced change in the material culture and a general decrease and abandonment of places in the middle of the 6th century, where the shift in the weather was more severe.

And the climate problems of today is on track to cause many more drastic changes than those that have already been observed. The earth as we know it will be forever changed by the abrupt departure from traditional economic fluctuations.

Haggai Olshanetsky is an associate professor in the Department of History, University of Warsaw, and Lev Cosijns is a PhD participant in the School of Archaeology.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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China’s gallium and germanium bans hit their trade war mark – Asia Times

In response to growing trade tensions between the two nations, China just prohibited the export of the vitamins chromium and tungsten.

The materials are of crucial economic price because they are used in computer chips, in defense equipment like night vision glasses, and in the renewable energy sector, where they are crucial for the production of solar cells and electric vehicles. These are all extremely sensitive for the US and EU.

Because of its ownership of 98 % of primary gallium and 91 % of primary germanium, China has a dominant market position over supply. Primary refers to “raw” options like metal iron. There are no options for nutrients in many industries where they are used.

Gallium and tungsten are byproducts of significant materials in very low amounts, known as trace nutrients. The debris left over from copper refineries and fuel fly ash, which is a powdery residue left over from coal burning in power plants, are the main sources of Germanium.

Gallium is primarily produced as a byproduct of metal ore, which is the major source of aluminum, as well as as as a byproduct of the process to remove aluminum from bauxite.

The Chinese ban on exports of these minerals to the US closely followed Washington’s third crackdown in three years on China’s semiconductor ( computer chip ) industry. The US wants to halt China’s imports of advanced chips that could be used in security-related software.

Gallium.
Gallium melts at substantially above room temperatures. Photo: E-Rik / Shutterstock

Advanced chips could be employed in advanced weapons systems like hypersonic missiles or in electronic warfare applications that make use of artificial intelligence ( AI ). China claimed that the materials ‘ “dual military and civil uses” led to its ban on chromium and tungsten.

The US Department of Defense has a proper hoard of tungsten, but there are no chromium resources, according to a record in Reuters in 2023. According to the US Geological Survey ( USGS ) in October 2024, a total ban on the export of gallium and germanium could result in a US$ 3.4 billion loss to GDP.

The nutrients ‘ uses extend much beyond national security software. Gallium is used in solid-state lighting devices, including light-emitting diodes ( LEDs ). Germanium is used to speed up the reactions in the production of polyester and PLA ( a bioplastic ), as well as in optical fibers. The materials are important for making the electronic equipment we depend on every day, such as cellphones, features and devices.

Optical fibres
Germanium is used in visual fabrics, among many other uses. Photo: Asharkyu / Shutterstock

Given China’s almost dominance on the major production of these crucial nutrients, what can the US do to evade the effects of the restrictions?

The US could resume and increase domestic mining of these materials, one way. However, the Pentagon has already indicated that this is being explored.

As previously mentioned, chromium is primarily recovered as a byproduct from the recovery of copper or aluminum ores. Up to 50 parts per million of chromium are found in some US metal payments, according to the USGS, but the material is not now recovered from these payments.

Hyersonic missile concept (Waverider).
Washington is concerned about China’s trade of cutting-edge computer chips that could be used in sophisticated weaponry like fast rockets. Photo: US Army

Generally, reported production of tungsten in the US has been limited to one page, the Apex plant in Washington County, Utah. Midway through the 1980s, the Apex mine produced both chromium and germanium as its main products, but it has since shut down.

Given that only 3-5 % of the world’s metal and fuel are recovered from the processing procedure, the US has an option for diversifying the main production of these minerals by investing in zinc, coal, and metal refineries in another, friendly nations. The metal is extracted from its Trail furnace in British Columbia by Canada’s Teck Resources, which is the largest supplier of tungsten in North America.

An option would be to increase recovery from” so-called extra options,” which entails recycling used electronics and other equipment that has come to the end of its useful life.

No official figures are available for extra source, but some studies measure that no more than 10 % of the chromium provide overall comes from extra resources. This share reaches 30 % in the case of germanium.

However, there are significant obstacles that need to be overcome in order to boost the secondary production of these minerals. Since, in hardware like computer chips, the minerals are typically combined with other materials, the recycling process for recovery is very complex. This makes isolating the minerals difficult.

Consequently, the Chinese ban represents a major supply chain disruption for these minerals. Since the recovery yield is still low and the cost is not competitive, the lower primary supply cannot be offset by secondary supply ( recycling ) in the near future.

Long-term, technological advancements in the recovery process for both minerals could lower both the supply and cost, thereby reducing China’s mineral ores ‘ dependence.

Jorge Valverde is PhD Fellow, UNU-MERIT, United Nations University

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Political contradictions point to end of US empire – Asia Times

The Republicans ( GOP), traditionally the US’s anti-tax party, now promise to use tariffs to wage trade wars, to massively deport immigrants and to stop drug trafficking. However, taxes are just the name of a specific type of tax ( on imported goods and services ): So the GOP becomes both anti-tax and pro-tax.

Similar to the old-fashioned party of little government, the GOP of today favors massive subsidies for small-scale businesses and economic sanctions and restrictions on small-scale businesses. Beyond the right-wing philosophy and economic self-serving, Donald Trump reflects deeper conflicts in the GOP’s development.

The GOP, which has traditionally been a laissez-faire type of private enterprise, now supports increased government control over what private businesses can and can’t sell in the worlds of regenerative medicine, devices, vaccines, and drugs. The GOP, which has traditionally supported “freedom,” then insists on preventing people from moving across borders and privileges protectionist economic policies over a determination to “free trade.”

Some Trump’s cabinet nominees adopt standard GOP stances, while people adopt new anti-traditional ones. Some contenders do both. Trump’s failure to address the GOP’s fundamental conflicts confounds both its supporters and the general public.

In the moment, those conflicts give Trump some energy. Amid the uncertainty, he decides. However, soon conflicts between US policies may reveal the inanity of Trump’s project and sap his influence.

The Democratic group was, at least since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the “progressive” group of working individuals, organizations, and oppressed immigrants. But the rise of the “centrists” across subsequent years shifted the Democrats upward.

As they became delighted recipients of business and billionaires ‘ donations, the Democrats extremely supported the donor course by fielding “moderate” candidates, moderating their policies and programs, and formally marginalizing the party’s remaining liberal wing.

Personally, the Democrats ‘ moderate leaders pleaded and maneuvered to preserve the traditional assistance of labor unions, oppressed minority and educated experts. The Democrats ‘ efforts to gain more from their traditional supporters were actually made less efficient by restraint.

Liberals ‘ ties to those districts ‘ political commitments and interests also dissipate. Success with sponsors contradicted deepening problems with citizens, most strongly exposed in the 2024 election.

Multiple, severe and prolonged contradictions within both parties suggest that some actual, historical shifts may be live. The US empire’s peak and subsequent decline, in my opinion, are the first of those shifts, followed by the G7’s (especially the G7 )’s ). This change is a result of the International South, China, and the BRICS’s simultaneous fall.

A second change is the formation of US mankind’s domestic financial problems and difficulties. These are poorly acknowledged, let only solved. The long-term worsening of wealth and income disparities and the continual boom-bust or recession-inflation processes, for which no solution has been found, are two examples of the issues.

In brief, both the GOP and the Democrats have denied both swings. In fact, the parties ‘ collective response to the interconnected drops of global empire and local capitalism has so far been deniered. Denial often solves issues. They typically get worse before they erupt because of it.

Political parties ‘ main contradictions and their economic policies have a horizontal effect on professional economists. Unsettled, sour debates among economists react again upon policies, politicians, and open discourse to render them painfully powerless to fix what the public sees significantly as a damaged system.

Starting with Adam Smith, David Ricardo, and the theory of laissez-faire and, especially since John Maynard Keynes, a big part of the career has centered its function around an continued, apparently infinite debate. The question is whether our capitalist system’s operation is best served by fewer than many small, ongoing government interventions.

Should we privilege pro-laissez-faire economics ( the so-called neoclassical tradition ) or governmental interventionist economics ( the so-called Keynesian tradition ) or some” synthesis” of both?

In economics classes at US universities in the 20s, 40s, and 60s, this debate was a significant topic as it is today. The themes of that discussion were frequently expressed in contemporary politics. Occasionally, a few politicians recognized that the overdrawn oppositions, in theory, did not correspond all that well with actual practical politics.

Richard Nixon once said,” We are all Keynesian now”. Bill Clinton bragged about “ending welfare as we know it” in a statement. Trump regularly excoriates Democrats as “radical left lunatics” and includes “fascists” among them. All three presidents were proved wrong, albeit quite self-assured, in making such confused and confusing statements.

Yet the centrality of the private-versus-government dispute in both economic theory and policy continues. Its social value lies more in what it excludes than in what it includes that is positive. Making economics ‘ debate the center of attention has prevented the development of alternative cores that would challenge both Neoclassical and Keynesian economics.

One such alternative core would be the question whether top-down hierarchical production models ( the employer-employee model ) serve more effectively societies than horizontally egalitarian, democratic organizations ( the worker coop model ) do.

Then, debates might turn to which production organization preserves the environment, lessens income and wealth inequality, combats cyclical economic instability, or improves people’s physical and mental health.

The contradictions that agitate discourses and practices these days may be the result of the waning of traditional economic and political practices despite the lacked of new ones still a ways to go. On the one hand, the US and UK are now indicating that they are no longer free trade and instead of a government-run protectionism.

On the other, state-supervised China and India, among others, support free trade. The USSR’s and China’s economic growth records in the 20th century undermine preferences for private capitalism over state-regulated ones.

The old debate sheds no new light on such central economic issues as the rise of the BRICS bloc in the world economy in today’s world economy in comparison to the declines of an already smaller G7 bloc and the US dollar in world trade.

Of course, economists and politicians who have established themselves as leading opponents of neoclassical economics and privatization continue to try to maintain the same old debates that were important.

If they do succeed, it will be because a still-existing system prefers to rehash the outdated rather than welcome and examine what is emerging. In any case, however, unwavering change will continue to affect a fading US empire and its capitalist system.

Richard D. Wolff is visiting professor in the graduate program in international affairs at New School University in New York and professor of economics emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

Wolff’s weekly show, “Economic Update”, is syndicated by more than 100 radio stations and goes to millions via several TV networks and YouTube. His most recent book with Democracy at Work is” Understanding Capitalism” ( 2024 ), which responds to requests from readers of his earlier books” Understanding Socialism” and” Understanding Marxism”.

The Independent Media Institute’s Economy for All project produced this article. It is reproduced here with permission.

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US falling behind China in race to nuclear fusion – Asia Times

China is moving at incredible frequency to become the world’s first to use nuclear integration as a source of income. With the scheduled completion of the Comprehensive Research Facility for Fusion Technology ( CRAFT ) in Hefei Province in 2025, China will possess a unique scientific and engineering infrastructure for its fusion effort.

A crucial middle stage, the Burning Plasma Test Reactor, will be operational in 2027, while a prototype integration energy plant, the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor, is currently being developed. China’s South fusion reactor holds the record for blood confinement, and other essential integration tests are in progress in various locations of the state.

One may avoid asking: Where is the US in light of the steady stream of good integration reports coming from China. Due mainly to the terrible lack of commitment from the Federal government, the US is in danger of losing the earth leadership position in integration which it had occupied for almost three-quarters of a decade.

Given all the talk about maintaining the US’ technological advantage in relation to China, this is nothing less than a controversy. Fortunately for the US, personal market investments in integration have grown considerably, and US private companies are moving forward with a variety of optimistic and encouraging projects aimed at achieving corporate power generation by fusion in the not-too-distant future.

We emailed the Fusion Industry Association ( FIA ) CEO Andrew Holland for his opinion on the state of fusion in the US and China. The FIA has established itself as the words of the secret fusion market worldwide.

The most recent meeting was a follow-up to the one that Asia Times released in three episodes in January 2021. Asia Times Senior Science editor Jonathan Tennenbaum conducted the interview.

Contact: In your White Paper,” Bringing Fusion to the US Grid,” you argued that the US government should make a significant change in integration R&amp, D prioritization. And you compare the lack of sufficient aid by the US government to fusion with China’s optimistic fusion program, which is moving away quickly. How would you contrast the US’s merging efforts with what are happening in China?

AH: The US has been a world leader in integration since the very beginning of integration research by institutions back in the ‘ 50s. The United States has always been the leader in pushing forward studies, starting with blood physics, and therefore looking at how to build a fusion power break-even power plant, first working with the UK and then working with Japan and Europe.

China has not been a participant in that until the next 20 years or so. When China joined the ITER ( International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor ) program more than 20 years ago, China began investing to advance China to world leadership status. Investments in research, into facilities and even into individuals – blood physicists and the institutions that are important to educate them and to build and run experiments.

This occurred at a time when the global system was viewed as being largely transparent. A lot of the leading Chinese scientists have done work in US and European labs and Japanese labs. Collaboration has existed for a long time, both in ITER and elsewhere.

The US program on fusion has always been ambitious, but perhaps lacking in funding to allow follow through, is what I would say. A few things, in my opinion, need to be said.

For seven straight years now, Congress has appropriated more money every year into the Department of Energy’s Fusion Energy Science Program. So there has been a rise in funding for fusion, sometimes in significant jumps, sometimes in relatively small jumps.

Along with that has come new legal authorizations, directing the Department of Energy to create not only a fusion science program but a program that has the mission of delivering fusion energy-delivering a pilot plant. There has been a slow inclination toward commercialization.

Unfortunately, the US program is pretty heavy on legacy-funded programs. There is a saying in [ Washington ] DC that the DOE spends a lot of money on on certain mortgages each year, which account for a sizable portion of that funding.

These programs are focused largely on legacy R&amp, D programs, rather than forward-thinking commercially relevant programs. Given that the majority of the program and budget goes toward paying for these mortgages, it’s very difficult to say that we’re transitioning a DOE program.

Spending on these programs may be important for many reasons, like basic science and understanding of plasma physics, but really aren’t that important for the actual commercialization of fusion energy.

The Department of Energy has also authorized and begun a number of new programs. Notable among them are public-private partnerships, like the INFUSE ( Innovation Network for Fusion Energy ) program and the milestone-based public-private partnership.

Additionally, there is a brand-new initiative called Fusion Innovative Research Engine ( FIRE ) Collaboratives, which are research centers that are focused on pressing commercialization issues like the fuel cycle and materials. But the actual funding for these programs is still a smaller percentage than the legacy programs. So far, this transition has not been seen.

Now, China isn’t bound by these legacy programs nearly as much, and has been able to make investments focused towards building a commercialization program.

In essence, if you look at the US in the late 20s and early 20s, there was a request from the then Undersecretary for Science, Paul Dabbar, to the fusion community, asking them to “give me a community plan for what the fusion program should do.” Everybody should come together, and give us the consensus”. They succeeded, too.

The result was a long-range plan, delivered very early in 2021, that laid out the steps and programs and investments that needed to be made, to start to deliver a fusion pilot plant. The US National Academy of Sciences released their own report shortly after, stating that this is what you need to do to deliver a pilot plant.

Ironically, in fact, that’s about the same time that the Fusion Industry Association ( FIA ) was officially formed. In May 2021, we established ourselves as an independent organization. Then, in March of 2022, the White House hosted a fusion summit and declared what they call a Bold Decadal Vision for commercial fusion.

Therefore, the US government and the US fusion community have a plan for what they need to do to launch a pilot fusion power plant and commercialize fusion energy. The challenge is, that the actual budget of the Fusion Energy Science Program has basically not changed at all.

The truth is that we already have all the plans in place, and we only need to put them into practice. We need Congress to fund the money. The President needs to request the necessary funds to accomplish the task. And then you turn around and look across the Pacific to China.

A new facility, which they are calling CRAFT, is about to be finished. This is basically a place where they put all the fusion test stands together. All the projects listed in the long-range plan for the US are being constructed right now or have already been finished, but in China! &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Nothing new has been released from the US program in the interim. It is difficult to see how this is moving forward. However, the reality is that the US government is not at the center of the ambition. The ambition in the United States is with the private companies. Private companies are still making progress. Funding is flowing into these companies.

Although the US government doesn’t have much funding, significant funding is being poured into these businesses from investors, venture capitalists, and strategic investors. The growing, American-led industry is basically a testament to the power of the American capitalist system that I think we could be on the verge of getting there. This has been observed before.

JT: In China, the government is evidently committed to a real battle plan for fusion. As you pointed out, this is not only happening on paper, but the Chinese are also creating new structures. That was the way the US used to do things in the’ 50s and ‘ 60s in practically every field of science and technology. The idea was to simply go ahead and build a lot of things and see what works. What has happened to that spirit?

AH: I don’t believe it’s gone. I think it’s just lost from the United States government. Take a look at Commonwealth Fusion Systems for an example if you are talking about building things.

They are building a demonstration-class tokamak in Devens, Massachusetts, right now. Look at Helion, which is building their demonstration machine called Polaris in Everett, Washington, just north of Seattle. Zap Energy, in the same area, is testing their FuZE-Q machine right now. I could list a number of more businesses that are currently developing.

So there’s no shortage of building in fusion happening now in the private sector. In fact, we even see the charitable sector getting involved. MIT has found a number of philanthropic investors who want to invest in building a cyclotron that can function as a user facility for the fusion industry to test materials on. This is occurring largely without the US government’s assistance.

JT: Apart from the need to increase its scandalously low fusion budget, what things should the US government be doing now? What connection does this have to the work of the private sector?

AH: If the US wants to secure its leadership, certain things need to happen. The necessary infrastructure must be created for a commercialization program. What that means is that you need to build materials test stands, you need to build fuel cycle test centers, and so on.

Both the government and private industry must have access to the government’s built-in user facilities. A good example is in the aerospace industry: the government builds the wind tunnels and then industry comes in, and pays for access to those facilities. According to classical economics, the government’s failure to intervene would result in underinvestment of these public goods.

The second thing the government should be doing, but hasn’t been nearly enough, is to be investing in the companies directly, to help them move towards the goal of fusion pilot plants. This actually acts as a catalyst. Public-private partnerships enable companies to secure investment, to secure more private dollars.

Government funding has the same effect in a field as fusion that is ambitious. Investors still think that, ah, this is a wildly uncertain area. However, if the government says that we’re investing directly in this company, that seal of approval indicates that it is worthwhile to do so.

This is a real way to accelerate investment into fusion pilot plants. Governments around the world have realized that other nations will invest if they don’t support investment in new technologies.

The CHIPS Act, providing$ 54 billion dollars of funding to build new semiconductor manufacturing facilities in the United States, was adopted because other countries had subsidized this industry so much that it would have taken this strategic industry away from the United States.

There is nothing, in my opinion, more strategic than fusion. This is zero-carbon energy without a scarce fuel source, something that can deal with energy security and deal with our problems of scientific leadership right away. Any government should want to lead and not only have this strategic industry in their nation.

The United States has put really good plans in place. That’s something I want to be clear about. The milestone-based public-private partnership is a really good program. Really good is the INFUSE program. But the amount of money is so small that it really is not impactful to any decision-making by companies at this point.

JT: Why isn’t fusion given more of a priority? Is the problem on the level of bureaucratic thinking?

AH: Unless there is a push from the top, the status quo predominates over any change in politics and government.

JT: Well, that brings me to a central question. Everyone is now referring to China as the United States’ number one strategic rival or even adversary, and people are becoming more aware that China is on the verge of outperforming the United States in many respects.

The Chinese government has clearly identified fusion as a key strategic area, and China clearly aims to get there first, in terms of realizing a fusion pilot plant and developing a commercial fusion industry. I believe that should prompt the US to declare that we had better get moving because the Chinese will defeat us. But apparently, that message has not yet gotten through.

AH: Well, it’s all about timing in Washington, even if it has passed. You shouldn’t expect major new programs at the end of a president’s four-year term. When there is a divided government versus when there is a unified government, it’s all about.

I expect that in 2025, there will be new pushes for legislation from Congress to bolster America’s competitive position vis-à-vis China and the rest of the world. The Trump Administration wants to shake up and reshape the world and perpetuate it.

The United States is not a place where things happen linearly. Things move only occasionally. At the beginning of the Biden administration, there was the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, followed by the CHIPS and Science Act, followed by the Inflation Reduction Act, all of which amounted to an extraordinary amount of funding going into high-tech and energy fields. However, what actually went into fusion was merely a cash donation to support the construction of ITER in the South of France. &nbsp,

New competitiveness funding is what we’re pushing for and anticipate seeing in the new Congress in 2025. And we hope that fusion will be part of that.

We have a strategy. We’ve put forward a$ 3 billion supplemental funding request, and we think there is a case that it should be expanded up to a$ 5 or$ 10 billion supplemental funding request. This money is not intended to be used to build fusion infrastructure and support public-private partnerships in fusion, which are the primary sources of funding for annual appropriations.

JT: Let me bring up the China issue once more, in terms of manpower. According to what I saw, China has ten times as many PhDs in fusion science and engineering as the US. Shouldn’t that be a signaI for rethinking in the US?

China once relied on West Indian students to provide the majority of its top-level skills and knowledge. Those times are gone. China now produces its own elite fusion scientists and engineers at a much higher rate than the US. Shouldn’t the US be concerned about that, if the US wants to retain its leading position?

AH: I actually don’t worry about that issue. The workforce issue is a market issue. And if there is a market pull, we’ll find the workers for it. That’s the great benefit of the American system, the combination of government, philanthropic universities and private sector working together.

I believe there is a reason why the US holds the top spot in higher education, with the country having the most than one in the top 100 universities. US universities are market-oriented, so they listen to what the students want, and make the investments.

At the top level, I worry more. The top level of government funding is just not there. And so we could convince these universities to fund PhD plasma physicists ‘ employment in the UK or Germany. That’s more what I worry about.

JT: What has happened to the US national laboratories, which were formerly conducting fusion research? It seems that hardly any new experiments are being built there.

The national labs are the pinnacle of American science, according to AH. They are the ones that get the funding from DOE. The General Atomics DIII-D facility, which is essentially a national lab-class facility, receives the majority of the$ 800 million fusion budget.

I want to be clear that the national labs are doing really important science. However, we must witness the transition from science to science for the sake of commercialization.

If you look at a pie chart of where the$ 800 million DOE funding for Fusion Energy Sciences goes, the largest chunk,$ 240 million goes to ITER. The 30-year-old Tokamak run by General Atomics is DIII-D, which is the next-largest. It does really important science. Although it is not a brand-new machine, it does have excellent diagnostics. It’s not breaking new ground.

The National Spherical Torus Experiment-Upgrade ( NSTX-U) experiment from Princeton Plasma Physics Lab is the next-largest experiment.

JT: The NSTX is quite an old facility.

AH: They intend to reopen an upgraded facility for experiments next year, but we haven’t been able to do so for nearly a decade.

So if you look at those three facilities I just mentioned, that’s the bulk of the DOE fusion budget. However, commercialization-focused programs must include the construction of the fusion infrastructure I mentioned earlier. We need to make investments in both.

Now, I’d like it if there was” a rising tide that lifts all boats.” If we had a billion-dollar program or more in the Fusion Energy Sciences, then we could do all of these things.

We anticipate seeing really good science emerge from NSTX-U, and there is still good science emerging from DIII-D. But it’s not clear to us that this is better than the science that will come out of the private sector, where companies are building the next generation of these machines. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

JT: Are you thinking of an analogous process to the commercialization of space flight, with the transfer from NASA to SpaceX and other private companies?

AH: This is exactly what.

In 2006 NASA was looking to replace the space shuttle for access to the International Space Station. They had a plan, known as the Constellation and Orion programs, to build rockets to transport astronauts from Earth to Mars and back to Earth. A small group within NASA said, well, there are private space companies coming up, SpaceX and others.

No one initially believed they could ever accomplish this, but NASA responded,” OK, here’s$ 500 million, let’s do a public-private partnership with them.” They called the project COTS, Commercial Orbital Transportation Services, which aimed to develop private spacecraft to take deliveries, and ultimately astronauts, to the International Space Station. &nbsp,

The NASA COTS program invested directly into SpaceX in a milestone-based format. That leaves SpaceX with no money after hitting milestones. The ultimate milestone, of course, was delivering an astronaut to the International Space Station. However, they also reached a number of agreements and negotiated.

Finally, of course, SpaceX did succeed, and now they’re able to do it for 10 times less than what NASA had originally planned to spend. So we’re currently at the same point in fusion, with a milestone-based public-private partnership program that is the equivalent of the NASA COTS program.

They put it in place, but the government hasn’t given it even half of what it needs. To date, only$ 46 million has been allocated to companies. And when they finish it the following year, we anticipate another$ 40 million to be added to the budget for this year. But to be impactful, you need to add a zero to those numbers. You require a larger order of magnitude.

We think that the milestone-based program is the way that the United States is going to get to its fusion pilot plants. It’s done in the traditional American way. It’s your private sector and your public sector working together in partnership. The risk is taken by the private sector. The public sector supplies the infrastructure know-how. It’s a really creative way to go about it.

JT: Coming back to China, how would you characterize their effort and what do you think are the most important projects they have coming online?

You said it appears like there is a government plan. China is not the Soviet Union. There appears to be some internal competition going on, and it has evolved into something different from the traditional command-top-down economy. There are private companies involved. ENN, Startorus Fusion, and Energy Singularity are three private fusion companies in China that we are aware of.

There’s probably more, but those are the ones that have been significantly funded and are doing important work as of now. Energy Singularity is the one who is currently creating a tokamak using high-temperature superconductor magnets, essentially following a similar blueprint to what Commonwealth Fusion Systems in the US is building. The other two companies are looking towards other varieties of tokamaks.

Therefore, there is a more financially successful private sector approach. And then there is a government program. However, state-owned enterprises are also supported by the central government in China, Beijing, and other central government entities. They have created a new China Fusion Corporation that looks to be a delivery vehicle for what they are calling BEST– the Burning Plasma Experimental Superconducting Tokamak.

This is a classic low-temperature superconductor device rather than a high-temperature superconducting tokamak, but it will also be an ITER-class machine that will achieve fusion break-even. They are building it right now in Hefei, in Anhui province, not far from the CRAFT platform, the Comprehensive Research Facility for Fusion Technology.

What’s interesting is that, if you look at the company registrations and funding, a sizable portion of the funding for this government program has actually come from private investors. Leading among these is the electric vehicle company NIO.

We’ve looked into Chinese public company records, and it appears that the NIO is at least partially funding the building of BEST, but it’s not clear who is funding China Fusion Corporation. To be clear, I haven’t actually talked to them and I don’t know and of that for sure.

Because China is a different system than it was ten years ago, it is difficult to say for sure about any of this. It’s not as open. Having said that, Chinese scientists, working for both public and private companies, are actively involved in international fusion conferences around the world. They’re there to learn and they are there to share their details.

Some details are still ambiguous, though. There was an announcement late last year of the formation of a China Fusion Corporation, a press release&nbsp, was put out by the China National Nuclear Corporation. However, that press release was removed from the Internet within a day or two. I have an English language translation, but you can’t get the source anymore.

JT: Do you see a national security perspective in the race to build a pilot fusion power plant in light of all the talk about China as a strategic rival of the US?

AH: Any concentrated source of electric power that doesn’t rely on energy resources from an unstable world is national security related.

JT: What if China were to win the race for fusion energy commercialization?

AH: If the Chinese get to fusion first, we shouldn’t expect that this would just be a pure market-based approach. We should anticipate that China will use its newly established position of authority in global geopolitics. We should expect that they will use it throughout their Belt and Road partner nations, further tying them into a centralized, Beijing-led whole order.

Fusion is therefore more than just something the United States should do because it benefits both the environment and the economy. Examples from other industries show that China will take this and make it central to their global effort to put China at the center of the global geopolitical order.

JT: Would you draw a comparison to the attempt to reach the Moon?

AH: It’s similar in that we’re seeing a global race and multiple players work towards something very technologically challenging. However, I must say that although going to the Moon was and is an extraordinary achievement, it has a much greater impact on the day-to-day lives of the people living in your country if you can produce power without emissions and without relying on potentially hostile external sources.

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