Bolen C – Page 80 – Sure A Not

Farewell to Jimmy Carter’s presidential idealism and humility – Asia Times

On: December 30, 2024

In: Asia

Former US president Jimmy Carter, a gentleman defined by his modesty and ideology, has died at 100.

Several US leaders come from moderate childhoods. Born in Prairies, Georgia, Jimmy Carter’s Depression-era youth was no exception. His house lacked running water and electricity, while his rural higher class lacked a 12th grade.

The extent to which these humble beginnings would have an impact on his life, most notably during his day as America’s 39th senator from 1977 to 1981, was what made Carter unique.

A farmer, nuclear submarine agent, state government and happy Christian, Carter assumed company during a stormy time in American history. In particular, three problems are widely acknowledged for allowing the former peanut farmer to win the presidency, but they also continue to shape how Americans view British politicians and power 50 years later.

The turbulent – and some might say humiliating – US drawback from Vietnam was the first crises that hit televisions across the nation in March 1973.

The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries ( OPEC ) members imposed an embargo on oil exports to the United States in October 1973, which set off the second crisis. The US market, which is currently at a 4-year low, and dramatic increases in unemployment and inflation were all caused by it.

The Watergate scandal, the next and most well-known problems, forced President Richard Nixon to withdraw, making it his first national resignation in US story, amid mounting proof that he had committed atrocities and abuses of power while in office. Nixon’s son, and Carter’s Republican challenger in the 1976 presidential election, Gerald Ford, reportedly pardoned Nixon for any acts he had committed in business.

A relatively unknown Georgia governor’s victory in the 1976 vote was aided by Carter’s humility and idealism in the midst of three big US crises and his shock victory in Iowa’s first Democratic primary state.

Following quite a turbulent time, many Americans sought from their leader his dedication to restore conscience to the White House and US foreign policy, along with his campaign pledge to never rest to the British people.

The president, 1977-1981

Carter’s White House journey was smothered by previous crises, but his administration definitely had its fair share of them. How much of Carter’s actions contributed to the difficulties he faced while in company, researchers continue to debate.

However, his public approval ratings – 75 % when he entered office in 1977 and 34 % when he left office in 1981 – give an indication of where the American people placed their blame.

In his inaugural address on January 20, 1977, Carter outlined his broader perspective and policy agenda while much of the emphasis was on addressing the persistent vitality problems at the start of his presidency.

Carter, a man who had harshly criticized Ford’s pardon of Nixon, thanked the retiring senator for everything he had “done to recover our land.” He went on to talk of “our new mistakes”, the plan “if we despise our own government, we have no potential”, and his hope for Americans to become “proud of their own government after again”.

Two years later, he echoed these attitudes in the most well-known discourse of his administration. Amid but another fuel horror that led to long lines at petrol stations, high prices and an economic slowdown, Carter’s televised address to the nation decried a” crisis of confidence” amid “growing question about the meaning of our own life”.

Many now view the Carter administration’s pivotal moment as a turning point because it would never fully recover from which all the legislation in the world can’t fix what’s wrong with America.

When Carter ran against the Nixon and Ford administrations, his righteous criticism of them had benefited the electorate. However, after Carter had been in the office for more than two years, some people saw it as an abdication of responsibility.

Ted Kennedy, the Democratic senator from Massachusetts, would go on to criticize Carter’s speech as one that dismissed” the golden promise that is America” and instead embraced a pessimistic vision in which Americans were “blamed for every national ill, scolded as greedy, wasteful and mired in malaise”.

Jimmy Carter with his wife, Rosalynn Carter, and mother-in-law, Allie Smith, in 1981. Photo: Wayne Perkins / AP via The Conversation

Only four months after Carter’s infamous speech, yet another crisis erupted. Ayatollah Khomeini’s supporters held 52 US diplomats hostage in Iran. They would end up being held captive for the remainder of Carter’s term in office as a result of the US government’s failed rescue mission in April 1980 only serving to worsen the situation.

Carter undoubtedly achieved a lot of success in terms of foreign policy with his normalization of ties with China and his facilitation of the Camp David Accords, an unprecedented peace agreement between the Israeli and Egyptian governments.

Ted Kennedy chose to challenge Carter for the 1980 Democratic presidential nomination because of the perception that he would have a failed presidency.

Carter would ultimately defeat Kennedy for the Democratic nomination, but the harm done to Carter’s presidency made it possible for a much more optimistic Ronald Reagan to triumph in a landslide victory over the sitting president in November 1980.

Lasting significance

In many ways, Carter exemplifies what a post-presidential life might entail after the 56-year-old president failed to win a second term. His successors in the Oval Office would occasionally find it difficult to follow, despite his diplomatic and humanitarian efforts that would earn him the 2002 Nobel Peace Prize.

Carter’s steadfast Christian faith and idealism persisted throughout his life, from the work of his own organization to his commitment to building homes with Habitat for Humanity.

Although Carter was the first US president to declare that human rights were a central part of US foreign policy, most Americans today may perceive it as unremarkable for a US president to support them. Human rights have undoubtedly had an impact on his presidential successors ‘ policies, despite not having always been at the forefront of their plans.

This includes Ronald Reagan, who criticized Carter’s emphasis on human rights during the 1980 presidential campaign but later took a strong stand against Soviet human rights abuses.

Most living Americans were not yet born on Carter’s last day in office. In consequence, the former president is perhaps best known for living lavishly after retiring from office and living in a small Georgian town where his secret service detail’s armored vehicles were more expensive than the home the former president lived in.

Whether or not they realize it or not, Jimmy Carter’s humility, morality, and idealism still have an impact on American culture and thinking today.

Jared Mondschein is director of research, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Why China’s productivity keeps slowing down – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: December 30, 2024

In: Asia

China’s market is having major issues. Despite the country’s dominance of international manufacturing, its existing criteria are starting to dwindle at a level much below that of developed countries.

China’s growth has slowed down dramatically, from around 6.5 % before the pandemic to 4.6 % now, and there are credible signs that even that number is&nbsp, seriously overstated. Notice this, this, this and this on the topic. I believe that all cited here is generally in agreement.

But in the history, China has another issue that’s weighing on its people’s wealth and even making it harder to answer to the economic crisis. This is the issue of&nbsp, severely lower productivity growth.

I don’t quite believe the official numbers that say China’s total factor productivity ( TFP ) has &nbsp, fallen&nbsp, over the past decade and a half, but it’s undeniable that it has grown much more slowly than in previous periods.

Why? After the global financial crisis of 2008, Paul Krugman factors to a regional shift toward real house, an economy with slower productivity growth. I think that’s surely a part of the story, but perhaps not all of it.

In a post from 2022, I looked at the different possible causes of China’s productivity growth declining long before it reached rich-world living requirements.

But in light of China’s recent challenges, which have only gotten worse in the adjacent 2.5 years, I thought it might be useful to publish it today. I believe what I wrote is fairly solid.

Reading books about China’s market from before 2018 or until is always a fascinating experience. But some world-shaking events have changed the history since then — Trump’s trade conflict, Covid, Xi’s business reprisals, the real estate bust, shutdowns, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Reading predictions of China’s evolution from before these events occur is similar to reading sci-fi from 1962.

When I started&nbsp, China’s Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know®, by the veteran economic consultant Arthur Kroeber, I was prepared for this surreal effect. After all, it was published in April 2016— not the most opportune timing. So I was surprised by how significant the book still felt.

Most of the book’s explanations of aspects of the Chinese economy — fiscal federalism, urbanization and real estate construction, corruption, Chinese firms ‘ position within the supply chain, etc. — are either still highly relevant, or provide important explanations of what Xi’s policies were reacting against. Dan Wang was not wrong&nbsp, to recommend&nbsp, that I read it.

But&nbsp, China’s Economy&nbsp, is still a book from 2016, and through it all runs a strain of stubborn optimism that seems a lot less justifiable six years later.

Most crucially, while Kroeber acknowledged many of China’s economic challenges — an unsustainable pace of real estate construction, low efficiency of capital, an imbalance between investment and consumption, and so on — he argued that China would eventually overcome these challenges by shifting from an&nbsp, extensive growth model&nbsp, based on resource mobilization to one based on greater efficiency and productivity improvements.

This was made known despite his acknowledgment of the fact that Xi’s policies so far didn’t seem to be up to the challenge of reviving it because productivity growth had already slowed well before 2016 and that he had acknowledged this.

Productivity growth is the underlying thread that has connected the Chinese economy’s entire history since 2008 in many ways. According to Basic Economic Theory, eventually the growth benefits of capital accumulation hit a halt and need to be improved to maintain growth.

Some countries, like Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, have done this successfully and are now rich, others, like Thailand, failed to do it and are now languishing at the middle-income level. For several decades, Chinese productivity growth looked like Japan’s or Korea’s did. However, it changed slightly before Xi took office, making it appear a little more Thailand-like. Here’s a graph from&nbsp, a Lowy Institute report:

In fact, the Lowy Institute’s numbers are more optimistic than some other sources. According to the Penn World Tables, China’s overall factor productivity has increased by about 0 or less since 2011.

And&nbsp, the Conference Board agrees.

Personally, I suspect these sources probably&nbsp, underestimate TFP growth&nbsp, ( for all countries, not just for China ). However, even Lowy’s more accurate figures reveal a significant deceleration in the 2010s. If this productivity slump persists, it will be very difficult for China to grow itself out of its problems — such as its&nbsp, giant mountain of debt&nbsp, — in the next two decades.

Then, why has China’s productivity increased so slowly? There are several compelling reasons for Xi to make a change, and each of them has significant implications.

The first reason, of course, is that China had several tailwinds that were helping them become more productive, and these are mostly gone now.

Reason 1: Hitting natural limits

Simply put, China’s productivity increased as a result of their geographic isolation from the technological frontier. When you don’t even know how to do fairly simply industrial processes, it’s pretty easy to learn these quickly.

China imported basic foreign technology by insisting that foreign companies set up local joint ventures when they invest in China, by sending students overseas to learn in rich countries, by reverse-engineering developed-country products, by acquiring foreign companies, etc. Also by industrial espionage, of course, but there are lots of above-board ways to absorb foreign technology too.

The problem is, this has limits. The technologies you need to learn to keep growing productivity quickly increase as you get near the finish line; this is not something you can easily learn from taking classes or looking at blueprints. Companies guard these higher-level secret-sauce technologies much more carefully.

For instance, China has had trouble developing its own fighter jets because only a few companies in a few countries are aware of the metallurgy to create the specialized jet engines that enable modern top-of-the-line fighters. So it becomes necessary to start creating your own products as foreign technology becomes more and more difficult to absorb.

A second tailwind was demographics. Everyone talks about China’s unusually high demographic dividend in terms of labor input ( when there are many young people with few elders or children to care for ), but it’s also likely to be a factor in productivity. &nbsp,

Maestas, Mullen &amp, Powell ( 2016 ) &nbsp, shows a negative relationship between population age and productivity at the US state level, while&nbsp, Ozimek, DeAntonio &amp, Zandi ( 2018 ) &nbsp, find that the same is true at the firm level. The mechanism is unknown, but the pattern is pretty robust. In any case, China’s population reached its highest point in terms of working-age as a percentage of the total ( and quickly reached its absolute peak ) in 2010:

A third tailwind for productivity was rapid urbanization. Simply moving people from low-productivity agricultural work to high-productivity urban manufacturing work, as Arthur Lewis&nbsp, is a well-known fact, increases productivity a lot. Another factor that increases productivity is agglomeration economies.

And economists believe that China reached its” Lewis turning point” right around 2010 when there was no longer any surplus agricultural laborers moving to the cities. China, of course, also unnecessarily reduced urbanization by using its hukou ( household registration ) system to prevent migrant laborers from settling permanently in cities. However, in any case, this tailwind also appears to be over.

Three significant tailwinds that were causing China’s productivity growth over the past ten years have probably dried up. And Xi Jinping or any other leader has no real authority over that. However, there are probably other factors that could be more helpful for policy adjustments that are dragging China’s productivity growth down as well.

Reason 2: Low research productivity

One thing you can do is to invent your own if you are unable to import foreign technology any longer. In fact, this is a good thing to do even if you&nbsp, do &nbsp, import foreign technology, since companies should create new products and new markets instead of just aping foreign stuff. In fact, China has been investing a lot more in research and development in recent years. Here’s a chart&nbsp, from the blog Bruegel:

Unfortunately, research&nbsp, input&nbsp, doesn’t always lead to research&nbsp, output. A&nbsp, 2018 study by Zhang, Zhang &amp, Zhao&nbsp, finds that Chinese state-owned companies have much lower R&amp, D productivity than Chinese private companies, which in turn have much lower productivity than foreign-owned companies. And&nbsp, a 2021 paper by König et al. &nbsp, finds that while R&amp, D spending by Chinese companies does appear to raise TFP growth, the effect is quite modest:

In other words, a lot of this spending is being done by state-owned companies that are just throwing money at “research” because the government tells them to, but not really discovering much. The authors point to the misallocation of resources as a major contributor to low R&amp, D productivity. They also point out that some businesses simply reclassify regular investment as” R&amp, D” to profit from tax breaks ( note that this is done everywhere ).

What about university research? This is a crucial component of how the US maintains its technological edge. And China has indeed been throwing huge amounts of money at university research, such that its expenditure&nbsp, now nearly rivals that of the US&nbsp, China recently passed the US in terms of&nbsp, published scientific papers, including&nbsp, highly cited papers.

However, the quality of this study has been questioned. Despite all this publication activity and all this money, Chinese universities are frequently found to be not the leaders in most areas of research.

Basically, the story is that Chinese scientists are under tremendous pressure to publish a ton of crappy papers, which all cite each other, raising citation counts. In the words of Scientific American, this has led to” the proliferation of research malpractice, including plagiarism, nepotism, misrepresentation and falsification of records, bribery, conspiracy and collusion”.

Therefore, the low productivity of Chinese R&amp, D may contribute to the reason why domestic innovation hasn’t surpassed foreign technology absorption.

Reason 3: Limited export markets

I’m a big fan of the development theories of Joe Studwell and Ha-Joon Chang, as everyone who reads this blog will be aware of. A pillar of the Chang-Studwell model is the idea of “export discipline“.

Basically, when companies venture out into global markets, they encounter tougher competition and also ideas for new products, new customers, and new technologies. This raises their incentive ( and their ability ) to import more foreign technology, and in general makes them more productive and innovative.

After the global financial crisis of 2008 and the recession that followed, the US wasn’t able to absorb an ever-expanding amount of imports from China. So Chinese exports to the US market&nbsp, slowed in the 2010s, and then Trump’s trade war slowed them even more. China’s exports to the EU&nbsp, rose a bit, but not that much.

Developed-country markets simply became saturated with Chinese goods, and there wasn’t much more room for expansion. Although developing nations are reportedly purchasing more Chinese goods, they lack the purchasing power of the wealthy nations. Since the mid-2000s, China’s exports as a percentage of GDP have actually decreased significantly:

Many people ( including Kroeber ) talk about this as a shift from export-led growth to growth led by domestic investment. And so it is. But if productivity benefits from exporting, then this is also a challenge for long-term growth, because there’s less opportunity for export discipline to work its magic.

This may be one factor in the decline in growth for large nations compared to smaller ones. When you have 1.4 billion people, than when you only have 50 million, as South Korea does, because the world is suffocated with your exports, which is much harder to be an export-led economy.

Which raises the question of why the US is so productive, even more productive than the majority of the rich and productive East Asian nations. Consumption might have a role in that.

Reason 4: Not enough consumption

The US has a very large economy that is geographically dispersed from the majority of the world’s major economies. This explains why the US has a very low&nbsp, amount of trade relative to GDP&nbsp, — just 23 %, compared to 81 % for Germany and 69 % for South Korea.

However, the US has a highly productive economy, surpassing that of all but a few small wealthy nations. Exports undoubtedly contributed to the US’s expansion, but in large part it was just selling itself.

As the chart above shows, China increasingly does the same. But unlike the US, China’s domestic economy is heavily weighted towards&nbsp, investment in capital goods &nbsp, — apartment buildings, highways, trains, and so on. China’s final consumption is&nbsp, only 54 % of GDP, compared to over 80 % in the US.

And private household consumption accounts for&nbsp, only 39 % of China’s GDP, compared with 67 % in the US. China is undoubtedly in a later stage of development, but Kroeber points out in his book that even nations like Japan and South Korea had significantly higher consumption shares at comparable stages of their own growth stories.

Usually this gets discussed in the context of “imbalances”. But what if it also affects productivity? Consumers have a preference for differentiated goods that spurs companies to develop new products, increase quality, offer new features, and so on.

The strategy professor&nbsp, Michael Porter argues&nbsp, that when companies compete by differentiating their products instead of simply competing on costs, it results in higher value-added — in other words, it makes them more productive.

Over the past decade, China has been building a lot of buildings and a lot of infrastructure. But it hasn’t been developing a lot of innovative and high-quality cutting-edge consumer products. Unintentionally, various government initiatives that divert resources from domestic investment to domestic consumption may be reducing Chinese productivity.

And the biggest such policy might be macroeconomic stabilization.

Reason 5: Macroeconomic stabilization

It’s important to stabilize the economy. Recessions cause many people to lose their jobs and cause a lot of suffering, and they most likely also cause underinvestment in businesses. They can damage the cohesion of entire societies. In 2008-11, the US learned this lesson the hard way when our insufficient fiscal stimulus caused a recession that was longer and more painful than it had to be.

But there may be such a thing as too much stabilization. As&nbsp, I explained in a post last September, China avoided going into recession both in 2008-11 and again in 2015-16 ( after a big stock market crash ) by pumping money into real estate, via&nbsp, lending by state-controlled banks, &nbsp, often to SOEs&nbsp, and to&nbsp, local governments.

This likely prevented the Chinese economy from experiencing recessions in 2008, 2008, and 2015-16. But it had a big negative effect on productivity growth, for three reasons.

First, SOEs simply aren’t very productive compared to other Chinese companies. Second, the funds were quickly thrown out the window, leaving little time or motivation to determine which projects were worthwhile.

Third, construction and real estate are two key sectors of the economy that have a reputation for having low rates of productivity growth. This last is probably the scariest, as it led China’s economy to be&nbsp, more dependent on real estate&nbsp, than any other in recent memory:

Anyone who has followed&nbsp, the saga of China’s Covid lockdowns&nbsp, will sense a familiar pattern here. The Chinese government, eager to preserve the appearance of invincibility, often goes overboard in unleashing the tools of control.

Although recessions are not good things, the measures taken by Chinese policymakers to make sure they never had even the slightest recession may have left their economy with a significant hangover from the low-productivity sector.

Will Xi bring back the increase in productivity?

There are many reasons why China’s productivity growth fell to a low level in the 2010s and 2020s.

But speeding it back up again — which every analyst, including Kroeber, seems to recommend — will be no easy task. The negative effects of productivity have vanished. These systems have a way of becoming established, and China’s misallocation of resources toward low-quality research and low-quality real estate industries won’t be easy to reverse.

Xi Jinping, of course, is going to try. Part of his effort consists of&nbsp, industrial policy&nbsp, — the&nbsp, Made in China 2025&nbsp, initiative and the&nbsp, big push for a domestic semiconductor industry. Whether those will bear fruit is still to be seen.

But in the last three years, Xi has undertaken a second, more destructive effort to reshape China’s industrial landscape. He has attacked the industries he doesn’t want, rather than simply boosting the industries he wants. &nbsp,

He has cracked down&nbsp, on consumer internet companies, finance companies, video games and entertainment. And he has attempted to&nbsp, curtail the size of the real estate industry, resulting in a slow-motion crash that ‘s&nbsp, still ongoing.

Essentially, Xi is trying to crush industries he doesn’t like, in the hopes that resources — talent and capital — flow to the industries he does like. This is a new kind of industrial policy — instead of “picking winners”, Xi is stomping losers.

One of the saddest things about optimistic 2016-era analyses like Kroeber’s is how much hope they place in internet companies like Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu as heralds of a new, more innovative China. Xi has declared that these companies are not, in fact, the future.

However, it’s not at all clear that an economy operates similarly to a tube of toothpaste when resources are squirted out from one end. Do you really believe that starting a semiconductor company rather than an internet company will help you become Emperor Xi’s favor as a budding entrepreneur?

What if he decides next week that he doesn’t need more chip companies and that your business isn’t one of his preferred champions? What if after you get rich and successful, Xi decides you’re a potential rival and appropriates your fortune?

An economy with a leader who consistently destroys businesses and industries he dislikes is inherently risky. Chinese engineers and managers will, indeed, follow Xi’s orders and work in the sectors he wants them to. However, the absence of entrepreneurial spirit and initiative may result in this being a pyrrhic triumph.

In other words, escaping China’s low-productivity-growth trap is going to be tough, and Xi’s strategy doesn’t fill me with a ton of confidence so far.

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

Trump settles MAGA movement feud on tech visas – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: December 30, 2024

In: Asia

When Steve Bannon, then-presidential planner, blew up at this author for suggesting that British industry needed to hire Chinese engineers a year before Donald Trump fired him in August 2017, he blew up at him.

” They’re all Chinese spies”! Bannon shouted. We were sitting in Bannon’s unkempt bathroom in the West Wing, talking about reviving US production. America graduates little 34, 000 electrical professionals and about 17, 000 substance engineers a time, I observed. As much as we want to teach American ability, I argued, we can’t do that quickly plenty to keep pace with China.

The Bannon flap of the MAGA movement is a prime example of how hard math education in the US is lacking. Opponents of constitutional immigration for experienced workers can’t comprehend the statistics that demonstrate how desperately needed they are. More on that below.

Last year, Bannon suddenly entered the discussion, criticizing Elon Musk and Tesla’s CEO for supporting the H-1B card program, which allows US companies to employ foreign engineers. The H-1B system” t’s about taking American jobs and bringing over basically what have become bonded servants at lower wages,” Bannon tweeted.” The thing’s a SCAM by the Oligarchs in Silicon Valley.

Musk responded on X by saying that H1B, the system that brought Musk to America from his native South Africa, is the reason he’s in America along with so many important people who built SpaceX, Tesla, and lots of different businesses that made America strong.

There is a persistent lack of outstanding architectural talent. It is Silicon Valley’s important limiting factor, according to Musk on X, making similar remarks as did Vivek Ramaswamy, a Trump advisor from the tech sector. Huffed Bannon against Musk,” Someone kindly notify’ Child Protective Services ‘— need to do a’ wellbeing check’ on this child”.

On Saturday, Trump slapped down Bannon and his adherents, telling the New York Post,” I’ve always liked the visa, I have always been in favour of the visa. That’s why we have them. I have some H-1B permits on my components. I’ve been a disciple in H-1B. I have used it several days. It’s a wonderful program”.

The United States honors about 230, 000 bachelor’s degree in engineering and computer science each month, compared with about 1.2 million in China. The biggest issue with US engineering schools, excluding a few prestigious ones, is getting students who are qualified to key in the issue at the undergraduate level.

In 2009, 34 % of US eighth graders tested at “proficient” ( 26 % ) or “advanced” ( 8 % ) on the National Assessment of Education Progress test. By 2020, that had fallen to just 24 %, with 20 % at “proficient” and 4 % at “advanced”, according to the&nbsp, National Center for Education Statistics.

The approval rate of executive programs at very rated state universities is a key sign of pupil demand for these programs. &nbsp, For many of the best state institutions, the acceptance frequency is 50 % or higher, indicating an absence of desire for the key. Only 6 % of American students main in architecture, compared with 33 % in China and Russia.

Instead of architectural professors, our universities employ diversity managers. Colleges can’t get enough certified high school graduates to fill their architectural applications, aside from the Ivy League and a few top-tier institutions.

Engineering School	Acceptance Rate ( 2022 )
Iowa State	91%
University of Missouri	85%
South Dakota School of Mine	81%
University of Alabama	74%
Texas Tech	68%
University of Pittsburgh	67%
Texas A&amp, M	64%
University of Wisconsin	60%
Ohio State	57%
Colorado School of Mine	57%
University of Washington	53%

Iowa State, ranked number 46 in the U.S. News rating of engineering schools, accepts 91% of applicants. The University of Missouri, in 99^th place, accepts 85%. And Texas A&amp, M, ranked number 10, takes 64%.

The trouble starts in grade school. There are significantly less than 250, 000 high school math educators in the US, but US colleges in 2021 graduated only 27, 000 Bachelor’s degrees in arithmetic each year—and some of them chose to tell.

In Europe, a bachelor’s degree in mathematics is required to tell the issue at the intermediate class level. American schools can only find a dozen “math knowledge” courses.

To inspire more mathematicians to train algebra, high schools would have to spend math teachers more than, say, sport teachers. They currently make about identical salaries. The teachers ‘ unions, founded on the theory that all forms of training are similar, would object fervently.

It gets worse: In some parts of the country, math education is consciously dumbed down in the name of “equality”. In 2014, San Francisco discontinued accelerated mathematics education in middle and high institutions. The school board of Troy, Missouri, Tulsa Oklahoma, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and&nbsp, some others&nbsp, followed match.

The California State Board of Education proposed putting mathematics education on hold until the ninth degree in 2023. That plan, the committee claimed, “affirms California’s commitment to ensuring capital and excellence in arithmetic understanding for all students”.

Under the most enthusiastic assumptions, it will take years to educate enough American engineers to lessen our dependence on immigrants. The current H-1B system does lower pay for eligible American, as its critics aver. That can be fixed quickly. Some states, for instance, Australia, require employers who sponsor a qualified immigrant to pay the going price for the same job.

The American approach is intended to “ensure that international workers are not paid less than an Asian employee doing the same work.” Additionally, they will stop using these visa programs to devalue the American labor market. Businesses must demonstrate that they are not paying a sponsored refugee less than the starting salary.

The H-1B system may stand improvement, but the United States didn’t perform without imported talent– never for years to come.

Observe David P Goldman on X at @davidpgoldman

Korean media not working hard enough in a time of crisis – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: December 28, 2024

In: Asia

A disturbing trend is emerging as President Yoon Suk Yeol waits for a Constitutional Court decision following his political prosecution and judicial investigations into his rebellion costs.

In recent days, the North Korean government has been flooded with unconfirmed, half-baked tales originating generally from opposition parties. The media’s failing to conduct fundamental fact-checking has only amplified the gossips, misconceptions and speculation.

Kim Ou-joon, a well-known left-wing critic, testified at a December 13 hearing that he had learned about an “assassination crew” that supposedly mobilized during Yoon’s martial law decree, which was later revoked six hours later that month.

This idea, which Kim himself acknowledged was never fully verified, alleged that Yoon’s authorities had planned to attack some individuals, including previous ruling party chief Han Dong-hoon, and then framework North Korea for the crime.

Kim continued to make another unsupported claims, including those that US soldiers could have used chemical weapons and killed them to stoke an American attack against North Korea during the brief-lived decree. Kim’s supply for the burning claims? A welcoming country with an official in South Korea

This vague purchasing fueled warm speculation, leading some to believe that the suggestion originated from British intelligence. Weeks later, however, US State Department director Mathew Miller dismissed the idea.

Ironically, in South Korea, it was the opposition Democratic Party lawmaker who openly refuted Kim’s testimony as” considerably fictional” – although the committee that heard Kim’s testimony later published an interim report to” not rule out entirely” the claim. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Another incident occurred on December 11 when another opposition leader’s representative, Kim Joon-hyung, claimed that US Ambassador Philip Goldberg reported to Washington after being unable to achieve North Korean diplomats as a result of the declaration of martial law, claiming that he could not cope with Yoon government officials. In a unique walk, the Seoul-based US Embassy quickly refuted the assertion.

These inflammation and unproven accusations have received more advertising policy, which has heightened the alarm. Mainstream media sources on both sides of the political spectrum failed to verify the reports.

Yet ChoJoongDong—an word for Chosun Ilbo, JoongAng Ilbo and DongA Ilbo, the world’s leading three liberal media outlets—fell quick in their fact-checking. They have traditionally been charged with balancing liberal media stories, but they have failed in the suddenly contentious social climate brought on by public demonstrations.

Just Chosun Ilbo, for example, wrote editorials that raised serious questions about Kim Ou-joon’s statements among the ChoJoongDong trio but never went any further.

However, the media’s fixation on contextual reviews stemming from Yoon’s continuing criminal probes has also fueled anxieties. The most popular news outlets are the reports from high-ranking military and government leaders who have been detained in connection with Yoon’s declaration of martial law.

None have so far been supported beyond the stories collected by the authorities and trial. Many stores have omitted important details, such as who made certain assertions and under what circumstances, turning the information into a mishmash of “he said, she said” allegations.

The ruling People’s Party has criticized researchers for deliberately reporting on ongoing legal investigations to the media and vowed legal actions against outlets that publish unverified claims. The political office and Yoon’s lawful team had denied all charges.

Then there are the wild duck hunts after mirage-like information. For example, a secure phone reportedly used by the leader as a line of communication during the decree—what multimedia have called smoking-gun evidence—has yet to be found.

Recently, the media has turned its attention to a rumored smoking gun, a book held by former head of defense intelligence Noh Sang-won. Noh, reportedly one of the key architects of Yoon’s December 3 martial law decree, had listed names of politicians, journalists, judges and religious figures as” subjects for roundup” and included phrases such as” shoot to kill” and “blockade National Assembly”.

The notebook reportedly includes a strategy to “incite North Korean aggression near the NLL,” the dangerous maritime boundary between the two Koreas, in addition. Noh, the previous knowledge commander-turned-shaman, has since been apprehended and handed over to prosecution.

The sudden presence of Noh and his book casts doubt, especially given the scheduling, which seems almost too easy, despite the expectation that those responsible for the investigation will work dispassionately.

After all, a memo that appears to have been written by a former military officer could suddenly support Kim Ou-joon’s assassination squad theory, supporting assertions that Yoon participated in provoking North Korean aggression and trying to neutralize parliament.

MBC and JTBC, two of South Korea’s leading broadcasters, are now actively promoting these narratives.

Moreover, if the indictment and impeachment against Yoon for inciting an insurrection fails, as is entirely possible, then Plan B may involve pursuing charges for inciting foreign aggression. It’s not unheard of for authorities to “find” evidence that fits a predetermined outcome.

Noh’s sudden emergence also neatly aligns with another dubious narrative. Hankyoreh Newspaper, for example, has suggested that Yoon’s shamanistic beliefs may have influenced his decision to declare martial law.

In a similar vein, Ohmynews published a column contending that Noh’s notebook’s contents are not entirely illogical given the “president who indulges in unfounded conspiracy theories and shamanistic beliefs.”

The joint investigative headquarters and the prosecution, who both want to control the high-profile case involving the sitting president, who has been suspended from his post-presidential duties while his Constitutional Court case is pending, are at odds with one another in the current media frenzy.

Both sides have fought back from the beginning to question well-known figures and find proof that Yoon has an insurrection connection. Additionally, it’s important to remember that former prosecutor general Yoon made his name by outlawing famous people like Cho Kuk and Park Geun-hye.

For the media and the mobilized opposition parties, gravitating toward juicy clickbait stories and engaging in speculation is not surprising. Sensationalism is not confined to South Korea.

However, the effects of misinformation or poorly sourced information are especially damaging in times of national crisis, as seen by the former President Park Geun-hye’s impeachment proceedings.

Violent rumors about Park and her allies and personal insults were widely spread during that time, even in the established media. Unsurprisingly, many of the claims originated from opposition parties.

False rumors about Park having cosmetic surgery and performing religious rituals after the 2014 Sewol Ferry sinking spread in a special way in a particularly notorious setting.

The opposition Democratic Party’s Jang Kyung Tae recently accused the first lady of visiting a plastic surgeon just before Yoon’s martial law decree, as if it had been taken directly from the same playbook.

Hasty reporting may have also influenced Park’s court ruling. In an exclusive segment aired in October 2016, JTBC showed a smoking gun demonstration of Park’s meddling in state affairs. That and JTBC’s subsequent expose became key evidence for Park’s ouster from office. In recent years, the accuracy of the broadcaster’s reports has come under heavy scrutiny.

The opposition’s careless actions run the risk of further erodering public trust in already fragile institutions as the Constitutional Court weighs Yoon’s case. At the same time, the media’s penchant for speculative reporting, coupled with a lack of rigorous fact-checking, only fuels the fire. The “innocent until proven guilty” principle will become more and more vulnerable as a result of this climate.

To be sure, press freedom and governmental inquiries must be protected and encouraged, especially in times of crisis. But without proper accountability, they risk becoming a double-edged sword—one that can uphold truth or unleash unwarranted protest and chaos.

Kenji Yoshida is a Seoul-based correspondent for JAPAN Forward. Reitaku University’s Associate Professor and historian Jason Morgan

Race for Arctic resources in a climate change era – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: December 28, 2024

In: Asia, World

In November, a student-led job made a shocking discovery: Mesyatsev Island, a floating block of ice formerly observed in the Arctic, had nearly disappeared. It took around a decade and a half for the 11.8-million-square-foot island to shrink by 99.7 % and vanish from the Arctic’s map.

However, the Arctic is changing rapidly, impacting communities and markets all over the world. Over the last 50 years, the polar region has been warming up four times faster than other parts of the globe, a trend known as Arctic amplification. Conditions have risen significantly, in 2023, the territory experienced its coolest summer.

” A melting Arctic presents new obstacles and exacerbates existing ones for Arctic states and areas”, said Samuel Jardine, head of research at London Politica. Network has already been harmed by the degrading permafrost as foundations decline and pipelines deteriorate.

According to Jardine, “it is estimated that 34 % of the people in the Arctic’s ice regions will be in danger by the end of 2100, with it costing between US$ 205 and US$ 572 billion depending on who you ask to simply keep the activity of engineering and support infrastructure in the 2080s.”

This could result in substantial threats to human security and increased migrant pressure, according to the expert, who quoted the author.

Race for Arctic tools

The Arctic is home to around 13 % (90 billion barrels ) of the world’s undiscovered conventional oil resources and 30 % of its undiscovered natural gas ones, according to an&nbsp, assessment&nbsp, conducted by the US Geological Survey ( USGS )

As Arctic snow evaporates, the cost of extracting its raw materials drops. A Finnish mining firm discovered a deposit of rare earth elements, which is thought to be the largest in Europe, in 2023.

In the meantime, the Arctic’s exploration and development of healthy resources pose new climate risks. Oil spills pose a threat to fish, birds, and other food-producing species, while mine may create toxic waste and obliterate a vital salmon wildlife.

No less important, the Arctic’s increasing mobility is spurring political opposition over natural sources.

According to Jardine,” Changing conditions also have an impact on fish, which for the Arctic has always been one of the essential trigger factors for democratic conflicts.” There have been significant political disputes over hunting quotas and their commitment to them in the High North as fish species fly and politics spill over, perhaps between states that are widely political partners like the UK, EU, and Norway. Such incidents, of course, are comparatively minor, but tensions are likely to increase as fish stocks continue to change”.

According to Jardine, the majority of the security issues are ironically being caused by these new opportunities.

The melting ice and rising temperatures make resources easier to access, not the least of which are those on the seabed, which is already generating more activity, such as Norway’s attempt to mine its EEZ for seabed oil as it aims to get away from offshore oil. This not only drives securitization, as geopolitical tensions spill over, much as they are doing with fisheries, but also makes the various clashing claims to the Arctic seabed, specifically between Russia, Denmark, and Canada, an increasingly pertinent issue.

These nations currently make use of the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, which can make legally binding recommendations but does not enforce or establish maritime boundaries.

Given the state’s current geopolitical situation, it is unlikely these states will be able to resolve the conflict among themselves, especially given concerns that rights to the seabed may allow for “dual-use” infrastructure or the use of national seabed regulations that might limit maritime traffic, the expert said.

Geopolitics of shipping

The rise in shipping traffic in the polar region is another security risk trigger. A growing number of previously difficult-to-reach regions have been made accessible by the shrinking sea ice. And as the frontier of natural resource extraction expands, Arctic shipping increases, too.

Russia’s Yamal Gas project and Canada’s iron ore mine in the Mary River region of Baffin Island are two of the biggest regional projects. Both initiatives have made a significant contribution to the rise in Arctic bulk carriers and gas tankers.

Three new shipping routes are anticipated to be created over the course of the Arctic by the melting Arctic, all of which are significantly faster on paper than the traditional routes to East-West, according to Jardine. By 2030, according to some estimates, the Arctic will be completely ice-free in the summer, which would allow non-ice-class vessels to travel the routes safely.

” The big’flashpoint’ is most likely to be over the Northern Sea Route ( NSR ),” the expert added, but all three routes have geopolitical issues to varying degrees already,” the expert added.

This raises questions about unresolved disputes over the sovereignty of new sea routes. Russia asserts that the NSR is within its territorial waters, but the US and a number of other nations refute this claim.

Canada claims that it is within its internal waters, but the US insists that it is an international strait.

Governing the Arctic

Some four million people live in the Arctic region, distributed across Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, Russia, Canada and the US. Around 10 % of them are indigenous peoples.

National governments have exclusive jurisdiction over their own territories, including territorial waters and coastlines, while the rest of the Arctic Ocean is governed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS).

International agreements include those relating to the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, the International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters, and the cooperation agreement on the prevention of unregulated high seas fisheries and marine oil pollution.

A special organization known as the Arctic Council was established three decades ago to bring together the representatives of the eight Arctic states and the region’s indigenous peoples. This global forum has successfully addressed issues like oil spills, sea ice loss, tundra thawing, and rescue operations.

The Arctic Council has overcome a number of obstacles, but the most significant is the recent deterioration of relations between Russia and other Arctic nations as a result of Ukraine’s ongoing military conflict.

Politics aside, the issue with a full-fledged partnership pause is that it does not aid in addressing the effects of climate change. It also doesn’t support the rights of indigenous peoples. Any limitations on collaboration are unhelpful, if not harmful, given that the Arctic is currently facing risks from climate change that threaten the entire world.

China firing preemptive trade war shots at Trump – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: December 28, 2024

In: Asia

By extending the already-imposed tariffs on a significant chemical fluid, imposing security sanctions on seven American businesses, and threatening to stop buying US semiconductors in a single time, China has heightened industry conflicts with the United States.

China’s Ministry of Commerce ( MoC ) announced on December 26 that it will continue to impose anti-dumping taxes on imports of n-butanol from the US, Taiwan, and Malaysia for another five years, effective from December 29, 2024.

According to the MoC, removing anti-dumping duties would probably cause China’s domestic n-butanol economy to resume or continue its dumping practices and suffer as a result.

A significant organic compound is used to make paint, adhesive, and fillers in the production of many materials.

On December 29, 2018, China imposed 52.2-139.3 % tariffs on n-butanol imports from the US and 12.7-26.7 % tariffs on those from Malaysia. A 56.1 % work was imposed on all Chinese firms, except Formosa Plastics Corp, which only paid 6 %.

In 2022, China imported 105, 400 tons ( 66 % of total ) of n-butanol from Taiwan and 37, 300 tons ( 23.4 % of total ) from Saudi Arabia, according to a report published by the Beijing-based Huajing Industry Research Institute. The remaining came from Russia, South Africa and Malaysia.

According to the report, China’s N-butanol manufacturers are lagging behind domestic rivals in terms of product quality. &nbsp,

Hands sales to Taiwan

The Chinese Foreign Ministry sanctioned seven American companies and their related top executives on Friday night, China time, or Thursday night, US time, to fight against US arms sales to Taiwan.

Beijing claimed that the restrictions, which are based on China’s Anti-Foreign Sanctions Laws, are a response to the National Defense Authorization Act of the United States, which contains numerous adverse sections about China.

The sanctioned companies will now have their goods frozen in China and be unable to conduct business with Taiwanese businesses or individuals.

The seven businesses include Insitu Inc, Hudson Technologies, Saronic Technologies, Raytheon Canada, Raytheon Australia, Aerkomm Inc and Oceaneering International Inc. &nbsp,

These companies are engaged in a wide range of business. Insitu is a manufacturer of unmanned aerial techniques and a wholly-owned company of Boeing, a defence company. Aerkomm is a provider of satellite communication technologies. Oceaneering offers products and mechanical solutions to the onshore power, defence, aerospace and production industries. &nbsp,

The Biden administration’s 19th square of arms sales to Taiwan was approved on December 20th, which precipitated the most recent square of Taiwanese restrictions. Upgraded military data url systems and weapon mounts for Taiwanese ships were part of the US$ 29 million deal.

The Biden presidency approved$ 385 million in new arms sales to Taiwan on November 29th, including sections for Taiwan‘s US-made F-16 fighter jet and radar systems due in 2025.

On December 5, China sanctioned 13 US companies engaged in the production of robots, artificial intelligence and defense connections, as well as six mature company executives.

” A series of actions shows that the US has not stopped trying to contain China’s development through the Taiwan issue”, a Shanxi-based military columnist using the pseudonym” Dianwutang” wrote in an article. The promises made by British officials are no longer valuable to us.

China is becoming more and more sophisticated in resolving its problems with the US. If the US doesn’t move, China didn’t take actions, and if the US moves, China will strike with accuracy”.

He said the sanctioned US companies are now in purgatory as they didn’t get high-quality organic material materials such as chromium, tungsten and arsenic, from China. He stated that even if they could purchase these goods from second places, they would still have to pay a very high rate.

In an online panel discussion on December 19th, Stephen Tan, managing director of the International Policy Advisory Group, stated that China will undoubtedly pressure Trump to stop selling arms to Taiwan, but he didn’t make any concessions because he is a staunch supporter of the principle that “you pay your personal expenses for your security,” which may lead to a rise in US hands selling to Taiwan. &nbsp,

Fair competitors?

On December 23, the US Trade Representative Office said it would build a Section 301 research into China’s targeting of fundamental electronics, or identity cards, for supremacy and the impact on the US economy. On December 26, China said Washington may stop pushing forward the research. &nbsp,

In a media briefing on December 27 at 9:30 AM local time, the Ministry of Commerce’s China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT ) stated that the US-initiated 301 investigation into China’s semiconductor industry is a clear example of trade protectionionism. &nbsp,

CCPIT’s director, Sun Xiao, demanded that the US abide by WTO regulations and quickly halt punitive restrictions, as well as encourage professional assistance with China through dialogue and consultation.

He criticized the US for subverting fair contest rules by subsidizing its unique semiconductor industry. &nbsp,

CCPIT did not provide specific instructions for what steps it would take, but it appears to be telling China that it can stop buying US cards in the future. Following the US’s announcement of new chip export controls against China, several Chinese business organizations earlier this month asked their members to refrain from purchasing American-made tradition electronics due to” safety” concerns. &nbsp,

The Asia Times has Yong Jian as a contribution. He is a Chinese columnist who specializes in Chinese technologies, economy and politics.

Read: China sharpens trade war equipment away of Trump’s appearance

Outgoing Raimondo admits China chip war a ‘fool’s errand’ – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: December 27, 2024

In: Asia, Technology

US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, the Biden administration’s leading light behind attempts to limit China’s access to advanced bits and related technologies, then says that trade controls are only” speed bumps” and that” trying to hold China again is a fool’s assignment”.

The CHIPS and Science Act, a US$ 52.7 billion professional legislation signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022, is, in Raimondo’s opinion, more significant than sanctions against China. It is a US$ 52.7 billion business plan.

In an article published on December 22 and published in The Wall Street Journal, Raimondo stated that the only way to defeat China is to keep ahead of them. ” We have to work faster, out develop them. That’s the way to win”, she said.

The CHIPS and Science Act, along with the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act, “mark the most significant investment in America since the New Deal,” according to President Biden, who spoke at the Brookings Institution before in December.

The biggest rate knock, issues with the CHIPS Act, and the unexpected effects of sanctions are not left out of this examination, which is not incorrect.

Long-term, trying to stop China may seem like a fool’s errand, but it has had some distinctive success: In 2019, the US government persuaded the Netherlands to outlaw the import of ASML’s EUV printing systems to China.

This minimal China’s ability to make cards beyond 7nm, and, at an expensive bend, 5nm design principles, while Taiwan’s TSMC is now in industrial manufacturing at 3nm and is planning to create 2nm in 2025.

As a result, Nvidia, AMD, Apple and other non-Chinese integrated circuit design companies have access to mass production at 5nm, 4nm and 3nm, while Huawei and other Chinese tech companies do not.

Samsung is close behind TSMC, although at a smaller scale, Intel is outsourcing to TSMC while working on its 3nm yields, and Samsung, Intel and Japan’s Rapidus are all aiming at 2nm.

Without EUV lithography, Chinese semiconductor manufacturers would be ten to fifteen years ahead of the rest of the world, according to ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet. At the leading edge of miniaturization, that may be true.

His predecessor, Peter Wennick, said,” If they cannot get those machines, they will develop them themselves. That will take some time, but they will eventually arrive there. But how much time? Five years have already passed.

Chinese engineers are currently having enough trouble creating their own ArF immersion DUV lithography, the chip-making technology that is just behind EUV, despite having imported a lot of the old equipment.

They have also turned to open-source RISC-V architecture, chiplets and creative thinking to circumvent export controls on EUV lithography, other sophisticated equipment and advanced ICs such as Nvidia’s A100 and Blackwell AI processors, which are produced by TSMC.

” One way China will get around export controls is ] using the hardware it has access to create extremely good training stacks,” said Jack Clark, former policy director at OpenAI and co-founder of California AI developer Anthropic.

He also wrote that” Made in China will be a thing for AI models, same as electric cars, drones, and other technologies”.

The US Semiconductor Industry Association ( SIA ) reports that, as of December 17, the CHIPS Program Office had announced$ 42.4 billion in grants and loans to 27 companies, catalyzing 40 semiconductor-related projects in 21 American states.

” These projects include total investment of more than&nbsp,$ 386 billion over two decades”, the SIA wrote,” with the vast majority invested by 2030″ .&nbsp,

The Department of Commerce announced$ 4.7 billion in funding for Samsung Electronics on December 20th, which is more than$ 47 billion, which may ease worries that the incoming Trump administration might decide to stop funding CHIPS Act funding, which the president-elect has referred to as a “bad deal.” &nbsp,

The biggest CHIPS Act subsidies have gone to Intel, TSMC and Micron Technology. So far, only one company, Microchip, has abandoned its application for CHIPS funding – because it is closing factories, not building new ones.

But Intel, having dropped into the red and seen its share price collapse, is cutting its capital spending by more than 20 % and laying off more than 15 % of its workforce. CEO Pat Gelsinger, who lobbied hard for CHIPS Act funding, has also been forced out.

On balance, the CHIPS Act is a success but the crisis at Intel was an unpleasant surprise and the Act itself undermines US criticism of semiconductor subsidies in other countries, which have grown by leaps and bounds in China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, India and Europe. In consequence, some had hoped that the US share of the global semiconductor industry might not have increased as much.

The US share of the world’s chip manufacturing capacity will increase from 10 % in 2022 – when the CHIPS and Science Act was passed, to 14 % by 2032, according to a study conducted by the SIA and Boston Consulting Group in May 2024. This is the first time the US has expanded its domestic chip manufacturing footprint in relation to the rest of the world. In the absence of CHIPS enactment, the US share would have slipped further to 8 % by 2032″.

By 2030, according to Commerce Secretary Raimondo, the US will account for about 20 % of all advanced logic IC production. Part of that will be made by TSMC, which currently accounts for 64 % of advanced logic production, according to SemiWiki. Although TSMC is building fabs in Japan at the end of the decade, Taiwan will likely still be the majority of its production.

Sources: Data from semi, chart by Asia Times

Getting to even 14 % won’t be easy. Only 9 % of the world’s semiconductor production capacity, according to the industrial association semi, will be in North America by 2025. That would put the US in fifth place after China ( 30 % ), Taiwan ( 17 % ), South Korea ( 16 % ) and Japan ( 14 % ).

Although it has become popular to predict that Chinese semiconductor investment will slow down, the Biden administration’s alleged “targeting of foundational semiconductors ( also known as legacy or mature node chips ) for dominance” investigation seems unlikely.

The Office of the US Trade Representative ( USTR ) will also look into the incorporation of these semiconductors into electronic equipment used in” critical industries like defense, automotive, medical devices, aerospace, telecommunications, and power generation and the electrical grid”, as well as “materials critical to chip manufacturing such as silicon carbide and wafers”.

Silicon carbide is used to create semiconductor power used in electric vehicles.

Chinese commentators point out the hypocrisy of the author of the CHIPS Act, who claims that China’s semiconductor production is primarily intended for domestic consumption, and that China keeps increasing its investments as the US tightens its sanctions, as noted by Asia Times journalist Yong Jian.

By now, it should be obvious that the US wants to keep the entire Chinese semiconductor sector, not just the advanced chips, which it claims are essential to national security. China’s large semiconductor trade deficit, which it has attempted to reduce, is both financially and politically unfavorably.

The “fool’s errand” Raimondo has belatedly acknowledged on her way out the door, but those sanctions continue to encourage the Chinese innovation Biden’s incoming administration had hoped to stop.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

Another day, another president impeached in South Korea – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: December 27, 2024

In: Asia

During a tumultuous General Assembly meeting centered on his failure to appoint three new Constitutional Court justices, South Korea’s National Assembly voted today ( December 27 ) to remove Han Duck-soo from office. Politicians voted 192 to 0 for prosecution, with the decision People Power Party boycotting the vote.

Han’s prosecution movement was passed only two days after Yoon Suk Yeol, the president, was ordered to leave his posts on December 14 for his sudden declaration of martial law on December 3, a shocking action that has sparked outcry after demand for his treatment.

This is the first time an standing president has been impeached in North Korean history. After being impeached by the legislature and while his situation is pending at the Constitutional Court, Han assumed Yoon’s presidency. Finance Minister&nbsp, Choi Sang-mok&nbsp, is next in line to offer as interim president.

First, the Democratic Party said it would certainly indict Han if he did not reject any regulations. Democratic Party chief Lee Jae-myung said on December 15 that “going through prosecution too frequently can create confusion for the people.”

Han has vetoed six laws since taking office as president, though, in just one month. Additionally, he has declined to nominate three new members of the Constitutional Court, which would increase the likelihood of a decision that may bring about Yoon’s legitimate removal from power.

In a speech on December 26 Han said,” It is the heart of our law that an acting president refrains from constantly exercising national power, including appointments to the Constitutional Court justices.”

Two more judges are scheduled to retire in April 2024, leaving the Constitutional Court with three seats left open. In order to confirm Yoon’s resignation, at least seven judges must be present to premeditated an impeachment movement and six must rule in favor.

Han requested that the ruling and opposition parties reach an agreement before requesting that he assign the judges. The Democratic Party contends that no further discussion is necessary because the justice suggestions have already been subject to legislative confirmation hearings and legislative vote-ins.

Acting President Han, who has already vetoed legislation, is making the sexist say that he is refusing to carry out the government’s royal duties of appointing Constitutional Court justices, according to Democratic Party ground president Park Chan-dae.

The decision People’s Power Party railed the Democrat Party, accusing the antagonism of being careless of people’s employment.

” The acting president Han Duck-soo’s senate is not an impeachment for the nation and its citizens,” said the statement. Instead, People Power Party surface head Kwon Seong-dong called for the DP leader to be impeached.

” If foreign exchange rates increase to 1, 500 Korean won per one US dollars, Korea may encounter a financial crisis”, Kwon added.

Kwon argued that Han was attempting to restore faith in the world’s economic system in South Korea. Han’s prosecution may be harmful to South Korea’s business, Kwon claimed.

Today’s ballot was riddled with discussion. There are no precedent in South Korea, and the law does not specify how many votes are needed to remove an acting president.

According to the Democratic Party, 151 seats are required to remove Han from office, citing laws that require a simple majority to remove him from office. Before Yoon was suspended from his jobs, acting President Han was President Yoon’s prime minister.

The People Power Party, in contrast, claimed that the number of votes needed for president impeachment may be equal to that needed. electronic. a two thirds lot among listed politicians.

But, Woo Won-shik, the speech of the National Assembly, sided with the Democratic Party and claimed that the prosecution motion needed only 151 vote. Woo served six words as a former senator under the Democrat Party, despite the fact that the National Assembly Speaker is law-independent.

” I am aware that there are various opinions on how many votes are required to complete the action. The goal of this activity is impeaching a perfect minister who happens to be acting as President in accordance with the constitution, according to Woo as he introduced the voting process.

As opposition politicians started to voting, ruling party politicians stormed the Speaker’s floor, chanting “fundamentally null and void”.

The People Power Party politicians were met with their own song, demanding the party’s dissolution. They also chanted at the opposition party members. ” I have made this decision after much debate with law scientists”, Woo clarified.

As the Speaker declared voting halted at 4:25 am native time, ruling party lawmakers staged a boycott and stormed out of the room. In front of the National Assembly, ruling group politicians called on Speaker Woo to step down following the vote.

According to People Power Party surface head Kwon,” The senate of acting-President Han Duck-soo requires the two-thirds of the listed lawmakers to vote in favor,” but National Assembly Speaker Woo haphazardly chose to allow the movement to pass with only a simple majority. ” So, because it is less than two-thirds, we declare the action necessarily void and void”, he added.

Following Han’s prosecution, Finance Minister Choi may assume the role of acting leader.

Choi did not immediately reply on Han’s prosecution. However, before the ballot, Choi said,” the senate of Han may reduce the part of the senior body”.

Choi has been a long-standing official since the early 2000s and has held important positions in finance. He was a part of the bribery scandal that formerly ruled former president Park Geun-hye in 2016, but he was later reinstated by President Yoon in 2022.

However, Han’s prosecution has frustrated the start of a advisory body—made up of the executive and legislative bodies—which was set to explore issues related to the person’s lives.

Han stated following the impeachment that” I regard the National Assembly determination and will wait for the Constitutional Court choice… I will suspend my duties in accordance with relevant laws to prevent further dilemma.”

The K-poppers crooning to unseat Yoon in Korea – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: December 27, 2024

In: Asia

When South Korea’s leader, Yoon Suk Yeol, attempted to center martial law in early December, the government responded with huge protests. These demonstrations have persisted throughout the nation. An estimated 1 million persons gathered outside the National Assembly in Seoul on December 14 to vote on the action to remove Yoon from office.

The episode of this opposition movement includes the sight of young people swaying to K-pop’s thrilling beat. Protest organizers are blasting out K-pop hits, and demonstrators are waving&nbsp, K-pop light sticks &nbsp, ( portable devices associated with specific artists or groups ), turning the protests into multicolored musical rallies. According to a Chief content, some of the demonstrations resembled” a league dancefloor.”

There are many K-pop songs that have lyrics that evoke the protests ‘ attitude. For example, a verse from Girls ‘ Generation’s Into The New World ( 2007 ), which has been one of the most popular songs at the protests, promotes purpose and camaraderie, with lyrics like:” Don’t wait for any special miracle. The difficult path in front of us might be an unfamiliar future and issue, but we can’t give up”.

However, K-pop fandom even has a connection to politicians and civic engagement. People in their 20s and 30s are the most recognizable demographic party at the prosecution protests, according to observers. Some are K-pop fans and moreover discontented with Yoon’s anti-feminist position, as well as the gender-based assault that is common across Southern Korean society.

These people were the first to install K-pop light stones and practice the protests in a more inclusive manner. Additionally, they distributed lists of valuable rally supplies and location-specific information on social media, such as the names of the protest sites and the public toilets.

And they worked with the older established organizers to repurpose K-pop soundbites, signs, and other items into the rally grounds.

K-pop has also been linked to social activities and legal protests before. During the 2016 countrywide demonstrations that demanded the resignation of President Park Geun-hye, Into the New World was already an anthem for Ewha Women’s University individuals. K-pop has even taken different forms at the Seoul Queer Culture Festival.

Social protesters from other countries have also found K-pop to be popular. Through online payment strategies and hashtag engagement, K-pop fan areas in the US, which attract some of their members from racial and gender minority groups, made a significant contribution to the Black Lives Matter movement in 2020.

And in 2021, a group of K-pop fans in Chile launched an online campaign on X ( previously Twitter ) to support Gabriel Boric, a progressive candidate for president. Abroad, K-pop and its many fans have even operated as a safe place for LGBTQ areas.

History of opposition audio

South Korea, which was under autocratic rule from its development in 1948 to the late 1980s, has a long history of civil opposition.

In the 1970s, college students and labor union leaders held rallies and conferences to protest the incredible breaches of civil liberties that occurred. This action imagined the citizens, known as minjung in Korean, as being at the center of the state.

Students at universities carried out rallies and sang socially conscious music. They drew on a vocabulary of music known as minjung ang, or “people’s music”. Circulated through illegal programmes during a period of repression, minjung ang were sung by school learners, accompanied by acoustic guitars.

Minjung ang sounds are easy. Their songs encourage political waking and affirm the artists ‘ shared commitment to the cause of democracy. Sangnoksu, a representation of this narrative, enables the performers to band together as a divided population determined to alter the course of their country.

The phrases include:” We do not have much, but we stand up hand in hand, sharing grief. Though our route is long and dark, we did awaken, go forth, and eventually overcome”.

Protesters continued to perform throughout the 1980s as the atmosphere of the demonstrations grew more severe. In the town of Gwangju, soldiers opened flames on residents who were calmly protesting against martial law in 1980. At least 165 civilians were killed.

An anthem called March for the Beloved was born out of this tragic event, which was not covered in the conventional media at the time due to strict state repression.

Written in the storage of two of the sufferers, this melancholy tune kept the remembrance of Gwangju dead among the demonstrators, with songs like:” Dear colleagues have gone, our flag still ripples. While working for days to come, we will not get swayed. We continue to march. Keep your trust and act like us.

In addition to minjung ang, pro-democracy presentations in the past – and, to a lesser degree, the current – have oftentimes integrated folk rituals. Pungmul, a conventional farmers ‘ drums instrument, has been used as a tool for this, which features players playing Korean drums and gongs in stand-up structures.

In South Korea, more demonstrations will take place over the course of the next few months to put pressure on the constitutional court, which has 180 times to rule on the senate situation. The protests may continue to honor Minjung Kayo and its related problems.

However, K-pop and its supporters are likely to be at the forefront of a brand-new generation of North Korean music protesters.

Hyun Kyong Hannah Chang is teacher in Asian Studies, University of Sheffield

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

Will China let the yuan go in 2025? – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: December 27, 2024

In: Asia, Finance

One of the most important questions of 2025 is whether China may degrade the yuan.

Beijing shocked international markets ten years ago with a huge decline in the renminbi exchange rate. Analysts are currently discussing the likelihood that China might withstand a Donald Trump 2.0 administration and its affected business wars with a weaker currency.

Trump’s threat to impose 60 % tariffs on China could stifle an now sluggish economy brought on by a once-in-a-generation home problems.

Weakened retail sales, report youth unemployment, a fast-aging populace and negative forces aren’t helping financial matters. Trump campaign advisors also have plotted moves to devalue the money in order to gain a competitive advantage.

According to scholar Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics,” This may cause some resistance among these trading partners, who will step in to defend local industries from increased Chinese imports.”

A ruse to yuan the yuan could alter 2025 in unheard way. Of course, betting on a&nbsp, quickly weaker yuan&nbsp, could be a mistake if the last several decades of the Xi Jinping age are any link.

Hedge account bets that Trump may support a strong dollar indicate that he has lost interest in his 2017-2021 name. Finally, Trump vehemently favored a weaker US exchange rate in order to punish China and benefit American companies.

Trump’s abuse on the US Federal Reserve is even worth considering. Trump was angry that his chosen Chairman Jerome Powell continued to support his father Janet Yellen’s price increases earlier in his first word. He browbeat Powell into cutting costs, adding signal in 2019 that the business possibly didn’t want.

On top of the Fed’s broken trust, the US federal debt soared under both Trump and present President Joe Biden. It now exceeds US$ 36 trillion, and the alarming increase is unaffected by any slow.

Add to that the possibility of yet greater political fragmentation when Trump retakes the throne on January 20, 2025. However, Beijing may not be likely to allow the exchange rate to drop too much for at least four factors.

One, a falling yuan might make it more difficult for property developers and highly indebted Chinese companies to pay off their onshore debt. That may improve proxy risks in Asia ‘s&nbsp, biggest market. The last thing Xi wants is to see# ChinaEvergrande trending once more in the internet.

Two, the economic easing needed to sustain the yuan’s decline— especially with the Fed cutting rates, also— could harm Xi’s deleveraging efforts. Xi’s interior group has made significant strides in the past few years in the fight against economic snobbery.

This explains why Xi and Premier Li Qiang have been afraid to permit the People’s Bank of China to cut costs more forcefully, even as China Inc. is under negative pressure.

Three, increasing the dollar’s worldwide use is probably Xi’s biggest economic transformation achievement since 2012. In&nbsp, 2016, China&nbsp, won a place for the renminbi in the International Monetary Fund’s” special&nbsp, drawing&nbsp, right” box joining the dollar, yen, euro and pound.

Since next, the stock’s apply in business and banking has soared. Increased easing then may dent confidence in the yuan, slowing its development to reserve-currency standing.

Four, it may create China a more and controversial issue in US politics only as a truly anti-China administration assumes power. &nbsp,

Trump’s” Tax Man” instincts are all over moves to touch hardliner Peter&nbsp, Navarro, co-author of a text titled&nbsp,” Death by China”, as major commerce director.

The same goes for powerful China writer Marco Rubio being Trump’s secretary of state and adding Robert Lighthizer and&nbsp, Jamieson Greer&nbsp, to Trump’s business negotiation group.

There’s desire that Trump’s pull for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, you persuade the following White House to focus on the art of the package. Trump’s tax discussions are only a negotiating technique, according to the Bessent camp, in order to reach a “grand deal” trade agreement between the Group of Two.

Republicans and Democrats, however, are all in agreement that Trump must be strong with Beijing. Whether China is manipulating the renminbi lower was stoke bipartisan support in Washington.

That is especially true for Team Trump’s tariff-enthusiastic station, which is signaling taxes on Canada, Mexico, and the automobile market in way that are spooking Japan and South Korea.

” Donald Trump’s win … is ushering in a new cycle of stress on the Foreign money”, says Wei He, an scientist at Gavekal Research. What will happen if Trump begins to implement his threats of new tariffs after taking office in January is the main question. In this circumstance, it is highly unlikely that the renminbi will continue to trade at its current level.

After the US began imposing tariffs in 2018, the PBOC allowed a 13 % depreciation of the yuan in order” to partially restore export competitiveness”, He says. Therefore, it is likely that it will allow depreciation once more, especially given the renewed policy emphasis on supporting domestic demand.

To be sure, it’s not the most likely scenario.

Yet “if Trump does start a major trade war, China will, nevertheless, hit back, targeting American companies with interests in China, selling US Treasuries, devaluing the yuan and targeting US exports of agricultural goods”, says Evie Aspinalla, a director&nbsp, at the British Foreign Policy Group think tank. The effects would be significant for global trade. China, if it can, would rather avoid this, but if Trump follows through on his trade rhetoric, a tit-for-tat trade war seems all but inevitable”.

Trump, Aspinalla adds, has been “incredibly forthright throughout … on his views on China, not least in his threats to impose 60 % tariffs on China. China, meanwhile, &nbsp, has pledged to continue to work with the US based on the&nbsp, principles of mutual respect, peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation, claiming there are’ no winners’ in a trade war. With the&nbsp, Chinese economy&nbsp, already struggling, 60 % tariffs would be crippling and China will be limited in its capacity to respond”.

That threatened tariff maneuver alone, UBS&nbsp, Group estimates, will cut China’s annual growth by more than half – chopping 2.5 percentage points off globe’s top trading nation’s GDP. Due to weak retail spending, property investment, and new home sales, China increased just 4.6 % in the third quarter year over year.

The Xi government’s slow action in resolving the property crisis only increases the chance of an even longer economic issue.

Investors were alarmed to learn that Chinese bank regulators are urging China Vanke Co to disclose their financial exposure in order to assess how assertively Beijing might need to shore up the country’s fourth-largest developer by sales in order to avoid default.

In Hong Kong, New World Development Co, which is exposed to mainland China’s property troubles, is trying to delay some loan maturities. Meanwhile, Parkview Group is seeking buyers for a well-known landmark commercial complex in Beijing.

We believe Vanke could experience a liquidity shortage sooner than expected if there is no turnaround in property sales, asset disposals continue to be slow in a weak property market, and financial institutions start to be more cautious and require additional collateral, according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analyst Shujin Chen. We still believe that there is a 50 % chance of a government bailout.

A weakened currency might be a boon. As Raymond Yeung, economist at ANZ Bank, notes, Beijing would probably try to stabilize the yuan instead of an outright devaluation. That could lead to capital outflows in a region on track for its first-ever foreign direct investment loss since 1990.

However, whether Xi launches a surprise yuan trading spree will depend on the president’s upcoming arrival in the White House: Trump, Trump, or Tariff Man, who will spoil a fierce trade war. Only time will tell. However, 2025 has the potential to fundamentally alter foreign exchange markets.

Follow William Pesek on X @WilliamPesek

Bolen C (Page 80)

The president, 1977-1981

Lasting significance

Reason 1: Hitting natural limits

Reason 2: Low research productivity

Reason 3: Limited export markets

Reason 4: Not enough consumption

Reason 5: Macroeconomic stabilization

Will Xi bring back the increase in productivity?

Race for Arctic tools

Geopolitics of shipping

Governing the Arctic

Hands sales to Taiwan

Fair competitors?

History of opposition audio