Russia’s Arctic edge melting under hot Western fire – Asia Times

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For Moscow in the Arctic, which is a strategic military area for Russia and has significant economic potential, things wo n’t exactly go as planned.

However, Russian hopes to use the Arctic to its edge in the conflict with Ukraine have been dented due to a combination of Russian military capabilities, American pressure, and foreign sanctions.

Russia’s military installations in the Arctic drastically increased as conflicts with the West quickly increased following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014.

Russia now has more airbases, ground forces, and ships in the area than it has ever had since the Soviet Union’s decline due to its significant and ongoing funding in establishing a military benefit. This includes Russia’s prominent northern fleet, which makes up the majority of Russia’s atomic submarine affect power.

Initial rewards for this purchase in military resources and infrastructure came from the battle against Ukraine because Russia was able to use its Arctic airbases. Aircraft were moved away from Ukraine and into the great north, where they were more easily located earlier in the conflict.

However, at the end of July 2024, Ukrainian robots attacked the Olenya airport north of Murmansk. This was allegedly used as retribution for bombers who were involved in the Kiev medical bombing on July 8, 2024.

With more long-range Russian drones, the obvious advantages of Russia’s Arctic foundations, if no gone, has at least been considerably diminished.

Russia’s Arctic passions have also been physically pushed back by the West. Within weeks of the beginning of Moscow’s warfare against Ukraine in February 2022, the seven European members of the Arctic Council ( Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the United States ) issued a joint statement suspending all cooperation with Russia.

Working with Moscow was radically altered by this, including on medical projects involving climate change, and it’s unlikely to change anytime soon.

Russia has certainly left the Arctic Council however, but has re-focussed its Arctic plan, including its broader international plan, on national objectives. However, the success of the Kremlin in these endeavors is still a mystery.

Within weeks of Finland joining NATO, the alliance carried out maneuvers in the Arctic to show its commitment to Article 5 ( collective defense ). Exercise Steadfast Defender, the largest military training since the end of the Cold War, started in northeastern Norway a month after Sweden had joined the ally as well. Russia received yet another sign that the Arctic was again on the west’s political radar.

It does, however, take some time for different countries to catch up with Russia in martial words. Significant progress has been made in this regard since the US updated its Arctic method in July 2024.

By comparison, NATO also lacks a right plan for the Arctic, as well as adequate forces and military equipment to operate it, despite acknowledging the need for an increase in American force and capability projection into the region.

Additionally, more defense ties between Russia and China, including naval exercises and mutual air patrols, strengthen the role of the Arctic in the political chess movements that have been emerging over the past ten years. And they suggest that Russia is unlikely to give up what it perceives as a defense advantages.

YouTube video

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The Arctic conflict between Russia and the West.

Another crucial aspect of Russian Arctic calculations is the fact that investing was not merely a military exercise.

Moscow has invested money in the creation of economic infrastructure, mainly to enable year-long shipping using Arctic routes from Asia to Europe, giving the Kremlin extra influence and potential revenue.

The Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, a body established to facilitate the implementation of the 1958 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS), recently acknowledged Moscow’s claims to large portions of the Arctic shelf.

In addition to those found in the region’s roughly one-fifth of the land mass that extends beyond the Arctic Circle, Russia also has access to numerous natural solutions it.

However, this monetary benefits is not as great as it appears. For instance, the West has discovered ways to counteract Russian efforts actually where it may have benefited financially from Arctic resources, such as with its premier LNG 2 initiative, which Vladimir Putin inaugurated in July 2023.

American sanctions have had a tangible effects, forcing French, German and Japanese traders in the venture to scale down their engagement. This created an opening for Taiwanese firms willing to avoid US and EU restrictions, but, afterwards, put Russian dependent on China, and mainly Chinese expense, in the Arctic on full screen.

After all, Beijing’s Polar Silk Route is a technique designed to produce financial benefits for China, no Russia, in the Arctic.

Russia does have a larger fleet of ships to carry gas produced at its two major Gas plants in the Arctic, but the lack of coverage and Western sanctions against the companies that buy Russian LNG continue to be a concern.

Russia was having a hard time finding buyers for the Gas produced by its lineup LNG 2 job, according to the Financial Times in early September 2024.

Expectations that the Kremlin might have had to change previously profitable trade offers to Europe appear far off in the air despite the lack of significant progress toward a final agreement on the Power of Siberia 2 network project.

The moment when Russia held an edge in the Arctic, primarily due to European neglect, is coming to an end. The West then knows it has, and does, drive backwards against Russia.

Although it may have taken a while, the European response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine may have turned into one of, to date, some success stories of efficient containment.

When it does, Russia’s hopes of using the Arctic benefits to defeat Ukraine might have been a costly error.

Stefan Wolff is professor of global surveillance, University of Birmingham

The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Emerging markets soon-to-be back in vogue – Asia Times

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For over a century, the narrative around emerging markets has been one of disappointment. Some emerging countries now find themselves trailing behind the developed world, especially the United States, despite being again hailed as the future development vehicles of the global market. &nbsp,

Many of these developing countries have experienced economic slowdown or even analysis as China’s rapid rise has slowed and global commodities prices have slowed. &nbsp, Concurrently, the US market, bolstered by record-breaking gains in its tech field, has retaken middle stage in the world markets. &nbsp,

But, now on the verge of a new global financial cycle, the sea is shifting once again in emerging markets ‘ pursuit. This writer believes should n’t be overlooked or missed because savvy investors are beginning to notice the resurgence of emerging markets.

The emerging earth holds a lot of promise for the upcoming five times. One recent study found that the proportion of emerging businesses poised to surpass the United States in per capita GDP growth is expected to rise to almost 90 %, a high not seen since the early 2000s. &nbsp,

The underlying economic wellbeing of many of these economies is what makes this resurgence so convincing, not just the rate of growth. &nbsp, Unlike in the 2000s, when the emerging world was generally buoyed by China’s increase and a product supercycle, today’s restoration is probably built on stronger economic basics.

A number of reasonable economic policies that many emerging markets have adopted over the past ten years have laid the groundwork for this reversal. &nbsp, Countries that were once plagued by monetary instability, such as Argentina and Turkey, are now embracing transformation. &nbsp,

The times of excessive government saving and accumulating debts are over. Alternatively, many emerging nations have reduced their current accounts inequities and budget deficits, giving them the financial support needed to propel their economic growth in the future.

However, in contrast, the United States appears to be grappling with overstimulation. The long-term viability of American financial dominance is being questioned by record budget deficits combined with rising debt. &nbsp,

For decades, the US has leveraged its position as the country’s supply money lender, allowing it to fund deficits and promote growth with several fast consequences. However, this approach is beginning to show flaws.

The growing stigma of America as a responsible gap contributor may include a wide-reaching impact, especially on the value of the franc.

Generally, periods of US dollars weakness have been positive for emerging industry. As the dollar declines, money tends to flow toward higher-growth markets with lower prices, exactly where many emerging marketplaces stand now. &nbsp,

The US share industry, especially its tech industry, has been a magnet for shareholders over the past 15 years. However, with the revenue growth of big tech companies expected to decline considerably, the appeal of National equities is waning. &nbsp,

In contrast, many emerging markets ‘ revenue growth is picking up, but their share prices are still significantly undervalued in comparison to US. This presents a unique opportunity for investors who are willing to look beyond the typical suspects in international stocks.

Despite these positive developments, the majority of international buyers have not yet recognized the potential in emerging markets. In many of these areas, trading volumes have fallen to their lowest levels in the last two decades, which suggests a general encounter of their improving fundamentals.

This may be due in part to lingering suspicion after the previous season’s weakness. However, the charm of emerging marketplaces is becoming too overstated as the US struggles to meet its growing governmental challenges and the dollar loses heat.

Among the emerging markets with powerful effectiveness are Saudi Arabia and India. Both countries benefit from a stable and expanding base of home buyers, which protects their marketplaces from the dictates of foreign capital flows. &nbsp,

India, in particular, has emerged as a new industrial powerhouse with a rapidly expanding middle class, while Saudi Arabia, driven by its ambitious Vision 2030 program, is making substantial achievements in diversifying its market beyond oil.

However, the opportunities extend far beyond these two nations. Southeast Asia, Latin America, and some of Africa’s economies are the backbone of economies that are not only expanding rapidly but are also improving in terms of governance and financial stability. &nbsp,

Investors who want to capitalize on this growth story should take into account a diversified strategy that targets a broad range of emerging markets as opposed to just one region.

Exchange-traded funds ( ETFs ) and mutual funds focused on emerging markets provide an easy way to gain exposure to a wide array of high-potential economies.

Now is the ideal time to diversify portfolios and position for the future. Despite the fact that they have been obscure for the past ten years, emerging markets are now enjoying a significant recovery.

Global investors must pay attention otherwise they run the risk of missing out on the upcoming boom and bust.

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Fujian carrier launch tech catapults China’s naval power – Asia Times

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China’s Fujian aircraft carrier, boasting state-of-the-art electromagnetic catapults, is set to revolutionize the People’s Liberation Army-Navy’s ( PLAN ) maritime prowess, edging closer to challenging US naval dominance at sea.

This month, The War Zone reported that China’s PLAN showcased its latest aircraft carrier, the Fujian, with a state-of-the-art rocket program and movable enclosed power station, also referred to as the “bubble” and suggestive of those found on US Navy ships.

The ship is seen in the footage that was released this month, according to The War Zone, which shows the carrier going through its third sea trial in Bohai Bay, northern China. The Fujian, China’s first Catapult Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery ( CATOBAR ) carrier, employs electromagnetic catapults, significantly enhancing the PLAN’s operational capabilities, the report said.

The rocket system, highlighted in a special video, features three electromagnetic catapults and a power train integrated into the flight deck, mirroring the US Navy’s Ford-class carriers.

According to The War Zone, Fujian’s successful launch of aircraft will set the PLAN on a significant footnote, allowing China to join the US in deploying electromagnetic aircraft launch systems ( EMALS ).

The Fujian’s EMALS technology marks a vital shift from the limitations of ski-ramp systems, offering greater functional flexibility, efficiency and build capabilities—though reliability challenges will also illustrate the gap between Chinese and US carrier expertise.

In a February 2009 article for The Aeronautical Journal, A Fry and various writers mention that ski-ramp designs for aircraft operators, while useful for quick take-off and horizontal landing (STOVL ) aircraft, provide many functional disadvantages.

Fry and others claim that the ramp’s ballistic launch profile significantly increases the stress on the landing gear as the aircraft climbs the curved incline in comparison to flat-deck takeoffs.

They point out that the aircraft’s landing gear’s increased curvature causes more wear and tear, which limits the ramp’s ideal size.

They point out that the ski-ramp restricts the maximum weight of aircraft and the payload that can be launched, especially in extreme weather, such as high temperatures and low wind speeds.

Fry and others point out that these drawbacks lead to a lower performance margin, especially in contrast to catapult-launched systems, which allow aircraft to launch with heavier payloads over shorter distances.

In the 2022 book” Technology Innovation in Mechanical Engineering,” Shreyas Maitreya and other authors mention that EMALS offers greater efficiency and precision than traditional steam catapults, making for smoother and more controlled launches.

Maitreya and others note that this system lowers the cost of maintenance and increases the longevity of the aircraft due to a decrease in wear and tear on the launch equipment.

They claim that EMALS can launch a wider range of aircraft, including lighter unmanned aerial vehicles ( UAVs ) and heavier manned ones. This technology makes naval forces more flexible operationally and increases sortie times by allowing more frequent and quicker launches.

Maitreya and others note that EMALS uses electrical power that can be more easily managed and distributed on contemporary naval vessels.

However, EMALS technology may still have to overcome reliability challenges. According to a US Congressional Research Service ( CRS ) report from July 2024, EMALS reliability aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford-class carriers has not significantly improved despite engineering improvements, with mean cycles between operational mission failures (MCBOMF) remaining consistent with recent developmental tests.

According to the CRS report, EMALS’ reliance on off-ship technical support is still a significant issue. Although it claims that there have been efforts to improve reliability, such as improved catapult position sensor blocks and software updates, there have n’t been significant changes made.

The source says that although the US Navy is working on further improvements, the system’s current state still poses risks to operational effectiveness and suitability.

Kevin Kusumoto mentions in an article for the US Foreign Military Studies Office ( FMSO ) this month that the Fujian represents a significant improvement in size and technology compared to China’s previous carriers.

Kusumoto points out that Fujian’s construction highlights China’s growing capacity to create and develop domestic carriers, breaking away from its prior reliance on Soviet designs.

He says that once Fujian completes sea trials and officially joins China’s fleet, it will significantly enhance the PLAN’s capabilities, signaling the start of China’s” three carrier era”.

He claims that having three carriers enables China to maintain one carrier for maintenance, another for training, and a third for carrying out carrier operations in strategically important maritime areas like the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and Indian Ocean.

However, Kusumoto says that the US still maintains a considerable lead over China in carrier application, experience and technology. He claims that China ca n’t match the US’s extensive carrier experience from World War II.

He claims that the US Navy has integrated carrier operations into larger joint and combined arms strategies and developed a well-established and effective approach over many years.

On the other hand, he points out that the PLAN does not have this same extensive historical, practical and combat experience.

Still, despite China’s inexperience in carrier operations, the Fujian will improve China’s technological capabilities and provide crucial operational experience through its extensive sea trials, positioning the PLAN for increased naval influence, Kusumoto argues.

In line with advances in China’s carrier program, Kyle Mizokami notes in a March 2024 Popular Mechanics article that China is constructing its fourth aircraft carrier, confirmed by Vice Admiral Yuan Huazhi, marking another significant step in China’s naval expansion.

Mizokami states that the fourth carrier may be China’s first nuclear-powered surface ship, a milestone in China’s military technology. He points out that the under-construction ship is anticipated to help China advance its wider strategic objectives by enabling its ability to project its military might abroad.

He points out that China now has seven carriers in its Pacific Fleet, making it the second most significant naval force in the world.

The fourth Chinese carrier’s nuclear propulsion would offer virtually limitless range, a crucial benefit for extended missions, he says. Mizokami points out that China’s expansion of its carrier fleet is a result of its desire to eventually have nuclear-powered carriers capable of maintaining its at-sea presence.

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Who does US want to be Japan’s next leader? – Asia Times

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There is a voting that will not be counted but is important: who does Washington want to be Japan’s future leader, as Liberal Democratic Party people battle to choose the next prime minister?

Washington does n’t care, in my opinion, which is the most obvious response. They” had care less” said a former senior government official who is still deeply engaged with Japan at the highest levels of government and politicians. ” At the professional level, there are choices. However, no one in Washington is discussing it in detail.

Americans are seriously invested in their own, highly contested election, which is one reason for this lack of interest. However, the Chinese party election’s unique nature makes it perplexing, not least of which because there are so many individuals in the field.

And finally, Americans assume, probably wrongly, that the result of the election is not going to transform Japan’s foreign and domestic legislation.

However, for American politicians and authorities, it matters who emerges as Japan’s next president. One of the most critical questions facing the US is” who can be an effective leader that re-energizes the Chinese government, delivers an economic plan that is responsible, keeps Japan’s security expenditures in check, and encourages the Chinese economy to be a crucial hub in global supply chains,” according to Mireya Solis of the Brookings Institution, one of the top Japan experts in Washington.

” Folks in Washington are looking for somebody who will continue the Abe] Shinzo ] alliance policies, expanding the alliance, and expanding what Japan can do within the alliance”, says Ambassador Joseph Donovan, Jr, a former senior State Department official with extensive experience in Japan.

Along with that, Americans are looking for” somebody who can function with the ROK ( South Korea ), and somebody who has strong local support, who can provide the LDP again up”. Having said that, Donovan and people I spoke to offer a “huge proviso” regarding what might occur if US leadership changes.

If Democrat Kamala Harris prevails, she” may be looking for the strongest possible Japanese prime minister”, says the former top standard, who wished to remain anonymous. Trump may be looking for which excellent minister to influence, according to the statement.

Abe was able to “both please the US senator and stand up for Japan.” Whoever meets with Trump needs to be able to convey self-assurance as a world head, which is really important. Within that large platform, Japan offers its own opinions on who might best fit those needs.

How Washington sees the prospects

American policymakers tend to favor the most expert members of the LDP, especially those who have long worked in Washington, putting off the possibility of creating a liberal image that you acquaint voters with the scandal-troubling conventional ruling party.

” Everyone in Washington DC would be thrilled if it were Hayashi]Yoshimasa]”, said Tobias Harris, the biographer of Abe and author of the widely read” Observing Japan” newsletter.

” Clearly, he has lots of friends around. He worked on the Hill ( Congress ). He is the consistency prospect. Hayashi is your guy if you like what the Kishida state has been up to.

Washington is well-versed in the prospects ‘ backgrounds: former foreign minister Motegi Toshimitsu, present LDP Secretary General Kamikawa Yoko, and former foreign and defence secretary Kono Taro. The original senior government official offered this frank, off-the-record analysis of the three, based in part on personal touch.

Motegi’s encounter with Washington comes primarily in the business location, as the mediator of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and dealing with the Trump presidency.

” He is clever, productive, a little bit hostile – not a common Chinese, but Americans you deal with that”, says the former established. ” He is abrasive, but that does n’t matter in international affairs”.

As for Kamikawa,” she is the same. It’s so great, vanilla-flavored. Washington would assume that she was chosen because of her sex and fluency in English.

Kono is also a possible Prime Minister with lengthy experience in Washington, people fluent in English,” spends a lot of time with Americans and knows the U. S. fairly well”, the original official says.

However, Kono has some issues, especially those that exist in the Pentagon and the State Department, primarily as a result of his administration’s handling of the Aegis Onshore missile defence system, which shocked Washington. ” Kono thinks Americans like him, but that is not real”.

As things stand then, however, none of the “experienced” individuals seem likely to make the last two. So there are a number of individuals who are n’t at the top of British lists, including former defence minister Ishiba Shigeru, past financial security minister Kobayashi Takayuki, past economic security minister Koizumi Shinjiro, and current economic security minister Takaichi Sanae.

None of these potential leaders are regarded as having a significant impact on alliance relations, aside from Takaichi, a right-wing brave who has established herself as the intellectual heir to Abe’s more nationalist agenda.

” Takaichi would make anyone anxious”, says Harris. Her controversial stance on military history, including plans to visit the Yasukuni temple to Japan’s battle dead, “would disturbed the multilateral ties with the Koreans.” Koizumi and Kobayashi, who may even travel to Yasukuni and nasty relations with Korea, are also concerned.

Takaichi appeals to more hawkish people in Washington, especially those who support Trump, because they believe she is more ready to physically challenge China. She will want the same items that some individuals in Washington want, and they will find a way to collaborate with her, according to Harris.

That opinion does not apply to different well-versed Japanese arms in Washington. She might be too aggressive for the Washington masses, at least among those in Japan, according to the original senior official, though it is difficult to be that way in Washington these times.

Ishiba is undoubtedly the most amazing and potentially challenging head for Americans. He is well-known in the US, but he is not that well-known there.

His involvement in the Pentagon and his interest in developing arms have some backing. He is known to be a Chinese ally who wants to build a more independent future for Japan.

” Ishiba is sincere”, comments Harris. He” says what he thinks,” and he is a member of a custom that opposes doing what the US wants if it conflicts with Japan’s objectives.

Harris contrasts him with Kono, noting that both people have voiced opposition to Nippon Steel’s determination to halt its purchase of US Steel. Both males represent” a Japan that does say no, even politely, but nonetheless say no”.

Ishiba reflects more boldly a commonly held fear in Japan about U. S. reliability, especially under a minute Trump presidency. ” He and Trump together talking about burden sharing would be an interesting conversation”, says the former senior official. ” He will give as good as he gets”.

The other candidate coming out of the former Abe faction, Kobayashi, is garnering more interest in Washington where some think he could emerge as the second-place candidate. Compared to Takaichi, he is viewed more favorably. Kobayashi is “very bright, a good communicator, with US experience”, says the former official.

” He is young, interesting, probably someone the US could work with, but who is really going to make decisions if he is prime minister”. Washington’s policymakers are very impressed by his commitment to economic security.

The Koizumi question

That brings us to Koizumi Shinjiro, the son of the former prime minister, as the last viable option and the current front-runner in polls. He is undoubtedly well-known and offers the best chance to repair the LDP’s damaged image.

He has had little to say on foreign policy, focusing almost entirely on internal issues of political reform and encouraging entrepreneurial-led growth.

Koizumi is well-known in American policy circles. His graduate studies at Columbia University were followed by a valuable internship at the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, where he worked closely with Michael Green, a veteran Japan alliance manager, were they? However, questions remain as to whether or not he has any prior experience or adopts a certain policy.

” He does n’t get deep on policy very often”, the former official told Toyo Keizai. Let’s see if someone can handle the job because “people here would believe they have chosen someone who is appealing to voters.”

Nonetheless, in a second-round contest between Koizumi and either Ishiba or Takaichi, the Washington experts would tend to favor the young politician.

They assume he would represent a united party and have support from the LDP’s powerful figures, such as Aso Taro and Suga Yoshihide. Bottom line: For American Japan hands, having a leader who can continue to play a more assertive role in international affairs is important.

According to Brookings ‘ Solis, the author of an important new book on Japan’s leadership role,” If you have a leader that is not strong, that could mean that it is not going to be as proactive as it has been in the past.”

Japan has emerged as a key force in the fight against the “flourishing in the US” and the rise of xenophobic populism. She says the importance of Japanese leadership is highlighted by the possibility of a return to isolationism under Trump.

None of the potential LDP candidates would be as disruptive as the results of the Democratic Party of Japan’s brief presidency.

” It’s more important to determine which type of prime minister is more adept at appointing a strong economic management system to ensure that the LDP can carry out its goals.”

It would be difficult to say,” If you see a weakening of that control power that we got used to, that brought a more decisive Japan.”

Daniel Sneider is a non-resident distinguished fellow at the Korea Economic Institute of America and a lecturer on international policy and East Asian studies at Stanford University.

This article was originally published&nbsp, by Toyo Keizai and is republished with permission. Read the original here.

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US seeks to slam shut Shein, Temu trade loophole – Asia Times

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A group of US House Democrats has called for the “de minimis” business gap to be closed so that Chinese e-commerce companies Shein, Temu, and others can enter US businesses without paying import tariffs. &nbsp,

126 House Democrats on Wednesday signed a letter from US Representatives Rosa DeLauro, Earl Blumenauer, and Tom Suozzi, asking US President Joe Biden to use senior power to close the de minimis hole and safeguard Americans from its alleged growing problems. &nbsp,

” It is impossible to overstate the necessity of closing the de minimis gap. The group wrote in the text that” Americans continue to die from misrepresented fentanyl-laced medications that are ordered online, trousers assessment thanks to de minimis, and are delivered to Americans ‘ doorsteps.” &nbsp,

” De minimis imports, especially from China, even escape most active business enforcement mechanisms, including the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act and Section 301 tariffs used to keep trade cheats accountable”, they said.

Additionally, according to them, 18 US cotton plants have shut down over the past few months as a result of the de minimis loophole’s flood of imports from China, leaving hundreds of Americans without jobs.

The US Consumer Product Safety Commission, an independent branch of the US government, requested on September 4 that its employees check Shein and Temu to see if their outside manufacturers had performed as required by the Consumer Product Safety Act. &nbsp,

The two directors said they are conscious of reports in the media that “deadly infant and toddler products” are readily available on Shein and Temu. They also reported that” thousands of Chinese companies and distributors have joined the supply chain for Shein and Temu” to sell Chinese products ranging from T-shirts and clutches to electrical and kitchen products. &nbsp,

US businesses are envious, claim they.

Shippings with valuations under US$ 800 are exempt from US customs assessment and taxes under the de minimis price concept, also known as Area 321 of the Tax Act of 1930. &nbsp,

The original$ 200 cap was changed to$ 800 in February 2016 after being increased by then-US president Barack Obama. The improve was intended to support regional e-commerce companies like Amazon. &nbsp,

Shein and Temu have since expanded their companies in the US thanks to the revised law, especially given that some Chinese goods received an additional 25 % tax in 2018.

Last month, Shein was the most downloaded application in the US industry’s fashion and beauty game segment, registering more than 35 million files.

Following it, Poshmark and Nike had about 10 million files, and Nike had 15.2 million. Even in 2023, Temu was the most downloaded iPhone apps in the US with 103 million files, according to Appfigures. &nbsp,

Shein and Temu are building civilizations around the de minimis gap in US trade regulations, according to a report from the US House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party from June 2023, which has raised attention of their businesses.

In an article published on Thursday, US politicians called for closing the “hole” of the de minimis law because British e-commerce firms are envious of the rapid expansion of their Chinese competitors in the US, according to Lai Jiaqi, a poet at Guancha.cn. However, many analysts believe that the US government might not want to alter the concept right away because it will only increase prices.

Cui Lili, a professor at the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, claimed that the US’s de minimis law may actually help Taiwanese companies by promoting them up the value-added rope. &nbsp,

” China’s cross-border e-commerce platforms that offer products at very low prices will be hurt if the US tightens its$ 800 de minimis rule”, Cui said. ” In the future, they will have to change their strategy from selling low-price items to high-quality ones. Some Chinese consumer brands may gain new opportunities as a result.

AB Bernstein, a New York-based research and brokerage firm, said the combined market share of Shein, Temu and TikTok Shop in the US will grow to about 5 % by the end of this year from 3 % a year ago.

According to Statista.com, Amazon still had a market share of 37.6 % in the US last year, followed by Walmart ( 6.4 % ), Apple ( 3.6 % ), and eBay ( 3 % ). The growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms has sucked up American players ‘ market shares.

Legislations 

According to Chinese Customs, China’s e-commerce exports&nbsp, grew&nbsp, 19.6 % year-on-year to 1.83 trillion yuan ( US$ 257 billion ) in 2023. However, the region’s total export increased simply 0.6 % to 23.77 trillion yuan for the same time.

In the first eight weeks of this year, China’s full exports rose 6 % compared to the previous year. E-commerce might have contributed to the expansion, but a detailed break has not been made. &nbsp,

Republican Representative Gregory Murphy introduced the End China’s De Minimis Abuse Act policy in April of this year to stop China from dodging tariffs on Chinese products. He claimed that the proposed policy is essential for assisting smaller companies in the US. &nbsp,

Instead of just forfeiting the shipment, this Act proposed to impose a new civil penalty of$ 5, 000 for the first offense and$ 10, 000 for each subsequent offense for any person who violates US de minimis law.

According to Murphy, citing the most recent Customs and Border Protection ( CBP ) data, about 60.8 % of de minimis entry to the US came from China. &nbsp,

The National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO ) also called for an “extremely flawed tariff waiver mechanism” to undergo a radical reform in April of this year. It said no finding a” extensive solution” would risk China’s continuing exploitation of American business.

A group of bipartisan senators on August 8 passed legislation to tighten the de minimis rule by fighting illegal goods, supporting trustworthy importers, and bringing in net profits ( FIGHTING ) for America Act. &nbsp,

Senator Sherrod Brown claimed that nations like China are tampering with US business laws by using the de minimis gap and flooding America with deals filled with fentanyl and other illegal substances.

However, a commentary published by the state-run China Daily in April said the culture of US officials is: “if we don’t engage with them, prohibit them”. It said curbing Temu and Shein did hurt Sino-US connections. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Read: Shein, Temu bans second front in US decoupling generate

Following Jeff Pao on X at&nbsp, @jeffpao3

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Musk on track to be first trillionaire, i.e. markets aren’t working – Asia Times

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Obviously, the world is about to get its primary multimillionaire.

A statement from the business intelligence firm Informa Connect says, at his present level of wealth accumulation, it businessman Elon Musk is on record to be the nation’s first multimillionaire, three years from now.

At the moment Musk is said to be worth US$ 195 billion ( A$ 293 billion ), but if his wealth continues growing at the recent rate of 110 % per year, he will hit US$ 1.195 trillion in 2027.

Indian mining tycoon Gautam Adani, followed by Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang and Indonesian mining tycoon Prajogo Pangestu, who are all on track to reach the breakthrough in 2028, should be the next multimillionaire after Musk.

As the tech henchmen and mining bosses battle it out for the top 13 digits, nearly 1 billion people who do n’t yet have electricity to their homes will undoubtedly be watching closely.

Before examining how possible it is for someone to actually make a trillion dollars and what it might mean for the earth for so much of the country’s wealth to be held in the fingers of one individual, it is important to first try to comprehend how large a trillion really is.

One trillion seconds last 31, 000 years

A million is a big number: it is 1, 000 thousands. If you managed to retire with that many dollars in superannuation, you would have saved up more than 90 % of your fellow retirees.

One billion is 1, 000 millions. A million seconds pass in 12 days, but 31 years wait for a billion seconds to pass. That means a trillion seconds would equal 31, 000 years.

You would receive$ 40 billion in interest if you only had$ 1 trillion and did nothing more than stick it in the bank to earn 4 % interest annually.

No one needs$ 1 trillion, and it’s difficult to imagine how anyone would use it as quickly as it grew, which raises crucial questions about how societies, economies, and democracies will function if and when trillionaires are allowed to emerge.

A trillion is hard to justify

France’s King Louis XIV spent today’s equivalent of US$ 200&nbsp, billion-300&nbsp, billion building his palace at Versailles, and it was by no means his only palace.

Pyramids and sphinxes were n’t cheap either, but these kinds of expenses were viewed as necessary for beings chosen by gods and not entirely mortal.

Some believe that the entire population benefits when a small minority controls most of the resources on the grounds that it creates incentives.

In modern economies, we are told that wealth and prosperity will eventually trickle down to us if we keep working hard, just as peasants spent millennia awaiting their reward in the afterlife while their rulers enjoyed heaven on earth.

Unfortunately for most of us, despite the wealth of the richest 200 Australians growing from A$ 40.6&nbsp, billion to$ 625&nbsp, billion over the past 20 years, neither the Australian economy nor the wages of ordinary Australians are soaring.

High profits are meant to be temporary

Incentives can and do play a significant role in our economy.

If everyone wants a silicon chip or new farming technique because they are so good, it is only fair that I receive an initial reward, as suggested by 18th-century economist Adam Smith.

However, after a while, everyone else will be free to compete with me by selling comparable goods, which will prevent me from receiving an extraordinary ongoing reward.

The problem is that some markets are n’t free and do n’t work properly. It is not a coincidence that those who own monopoly rights to sell natural resources or technologies that are protected by patents or systems that lock in users own the majority of the world’s riches.

That’s bad news for those who are patiently waiting for wealth to trickle down or be distributed more evenly.

Technofeudalism keeps profits growing

Former Greek finance minister Yannis Varoufakis describes the current state of the world as one of technofeudalism in which online platforms continue to be able to exploit workers, consumers, and producers in ways Smith could not have imagined.

Modern tech titans have developed digital platforms where the price of entry is the transfer of your personal information and preferences, and they have developed new forms of alchemy to make this knowledge available to them so they can use them to keep you on their platforms and exploit you, your advertisers, or your suppliers in the belief that you wo n’t leave.

There are physical limitations on how big a fast-food chain like a car factory can grow, but there are hardly any physical limitations on how much money tech platforms can make selling ads for goods they know almost nothing about.

Restraining profits is pro-market

It is n’t anti-capitalist to want those profits competed away, it’s pro-market.

When the United States broke up J D&nbsp, Rockerfeller’s oil monopoly in the early 20th century, the oil industry prospered rather than vanished. Both the economy as a whole and the businesses that dealt with Rockerfeller were in better shape.

For the moment, democracies have the authority to redistribute the enormous profits that the new class of billionaires ( and soon trillionaires ) receive from the sale of limited resources and the development of platforms that keep us trapped.

Whether and how we use that power is up to us, but we might n’t have it for long. The more the new class of billionaires and trillionaires becomes established, the more it will be able to use the political system to advance their own interests rather than those of ordinary people.

Richard Denniss is adjunct professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Is US losing the AI arms race to China? – Asia Times

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The US government has long supported the development of technologies for military purposes, and it believes that artificial intelligence will be essential to the development of new battle equipment.

Military officials are concerned about keeping up with and ahead of China and Russia, two nations that have made significant strides in developing artificial-intelligence devices, according to current investments and Pentagon initiatives.

Targeted recognition systems, weaponry guided by AI, and attack and cyberdefense application that runs without the need for human intervention are just a few examples of AI-powered weapons.

The US defence society is coming to understand that AI will drastically change, if not totally reinvent, the world’s military power balance. The problem is more than defense.

As Chinese and Russian systems become more advanced, they threaten US domination of scientific innovation and development, as well as international financial power and influence.

Military leaders recognize that the threat to US scientific leadership is coming from two main options: a developing and ambitious China and a playful and declining Russia. Taken together, these troops challenge global security.

The nature of the threat

A 2018 Pentagon statement noted that modern innovations could change the types of challenges facing the US, which might include space-based arms, long-range nuclear weapons and cyberweapons.

A February 2019 study warned that China’s opportunities in its government’s AI systems – in particular, those supporting robotics, control, detail munitions and digital warfare – threaten to overwhelm the US. Chinese government organizations are carefully collaborating with the country’s private companies to stay current with cutting-edge technology developments.

Additionally, some Chinese and Russian projects have created military AI systems designed to address what they believe are US scientific flaws. For example, swarms of military AI-enhanced drones could search for and attack the protected computer systems that nations rely on to manage and establish their nuclear weapons.

So far the Pentagon’s activities have been mostly governmental, rather than practical. A Defense Department-wide strategy document that outlines large tenets for the creation and use of AI in upcoming conflicts has been released. A Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, which is tasked with accelerating the supply and implementation of AI, has been established by the defense.

But projects with names like” the Third Offset“,” Project Maven” and the” AI Next Campaign” have minimal funding. Some details about what they will actually do have been released by leaders.

Working with Silicon Valley

To arrange with Silicon Valley and implement new technologies in the military, the Pentagon has established the Defense Innovation Unit, with authorization to waive the labor-intensive military procurement process.

Conversations about the potential for the Chinese government to obtain and use US-designed technologies have been sparked by that device, which led to US restrictions on conducting business with numerous Chinese technology companies.

In terms of AI growth and use, many experts believe China may be able to beat the US. Nevertheless, China trails the US in various ways. The US has the nation’s largest knowledge funds, the most popular technology, software and technology companies, and the most sophisticated cyberattacks skills, both offensive and defensive.

For the moment, at least, but perhaps not long, according to me and other professionals, these benefits should help us maintain our technological leadership.

James Johnson is a teacher at Middlebury

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RTX Corporation sells out US national security to China – Asia Times

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Major US martial installations have been severely damaged by major US export control violations that the US State Department has allowed RTX Corporation to avoid liability. The dealings involved China, Iran and Russia, among people, and the procurement of essential components for defence systems&nbsp, from China.

Despite reporting more than 750 transgressions, RTX was fined US$ 200 million, although the de facto real good is just half that amount. There were no visible visits to the Department of Justice, and no other steps were taken. &nbsp,

No measure was made of problems to US safety. Given the seriousness of the violations, the great is just a number that has been taken out of a scarf. It is actually a pointless penalty. RTX profits are near$ 69 billion annually.

The State Department reports that the majority of the transgressions took place in RTX’s Collins Aerospace department, but there were also trade violations in other areas of the company.

The State Department claims that because the business freely disclosed the violations and worked with it to improve export compliance, its response was no harsher.

The transgressions include shipping to Iran, Lebanon, Russia and China. China was hired by US defense systems as a subcontractor for parts, and the company was given export-controlled design and complex data to make components.

With these transactions, Collins, which is now a division of RTX, could purchase components from China for less money and probably less. Collins runs activities in Shanghai and works with China Aerospace Systems Corporation.

For controlling US imports, there are three different systems in place. The State Department publishes the International Traffic in Arms Regulations ( ITAR ) and administers the Arms Export Control Act. Security firms are aware that the majority of what they produce is covered by ITAR regulations.

The Commerce Department publishes the Commodity Control List (CCL ) regulations and administers the Export Administration Regulations. The CCL covers national security, foreign policy, short-supply, nuclear non-proliferation, missile systems, chemical and biological weapons, regional security, crime power and criminal issues.

The Office of Foreign Asset Controls manages a number of US export restrictions for the Treasury Department. The US has sanctions on Russia, China and Iran. Additionally, all three countries engage in extensive computer hackers, which is frequently referred to as an “advanced frequent threat,” against the United States.

There can occasionally clash and conflict over groups that joint mechanisms are tasked with sorting out despite the three organizations that administer the applications. &nbsp,

In addition, other agencies, most notably the Defense Department, the Department of Energy (especially for nuclear-related technology ) and US Intelligence ( mainly the CIA ) participate in establishing technology controls, tracking adversaries and adjudicating export license applications.

Collins Aerospace

Rockwell Collins was acquired by&nbsp, United Technologies Corporation&nbsp, ( UTC ) &nbsp, on November 27, 2018, for$ 30 billion and now operates as part of&nbsp, Collins Aerospace, a subsidiary of the&nbsp, RTX Corporation&nbsp, ( formerly Raytheon Technologies ).

Business aviation accounts for a sizable portion of the company’s business, but many of the same items are used in military aviation. &nbsp,

Rockwell Collins has been involved in defense projects with&nbsp, Common Avionics Architecture System&nbsp, ( CAAS ), &nbsp, Joint Tactical Radio System&nbsp, (JTRS ), &nbsp, Tactical Targeting Network Technology&nbsp, ( TTNT ), &nbsp, Defense Advanced GPS Receiver&nbsp, ( DAGR ) and&nbsp, Future Combat Systems. Interestingly, Collins Aerospace, the son division of RTX, specializes in incorporated field control and has earnings of$ 26.2 billion.

As the&nbsp, business says,” With our long history of providing software-defined transmitters, gate solutions and conversation systems, we know what it will get to join the battlespace. With innovative solutions that incorporate legacy and fresh assets, available systems architecture, electronic engineering, and militaristic commercial technologies, we are accelerating the deployment of new technologies and capabilities to allies.

According to the State Department, since 2020, there have been 27 volunteer statements concerning Collins Aerospace. According to “at least two instances, these unauthorized exports led to the production of thousands of defense articles ( comprising roughly 45 distinct part numbers ) in China, their importation into the United States, and their eventual integration into various US and partner military platforms. In 16 situations, Respondent]Collins? or RTX? ] or its international members reexport or export security articles related to military aircraft and missile system initiatives without license.

The State Department asserts that the majority of these breaches occurred before UTC acquired Rockwell Collins in 2018.

Particularly concerning is how the State Department did not take any action for four decades after being informed of these breaches, which included acquisitions of Chinese goods for US defence techniques. Was the US government informed of the presence of Taiwanese weapons in its military installations? If so, the State Department’s statement does not contain any information. &nbsp,

The State Department’s” Charging Document” also reveals that the&nbsp, US AWACS ( Airborne Warning and Control System ) was also compromised.

” In two disclosures that Respondent initially submitted to the Department in 2021 and 2022, it disclosed unauthorized exports that occurred at Respondent’s facility in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, in the form of unauthorized releases of USML]US Munitions List, namely the ITAR] … technical data related to the&nbsp, Boeing E-3 Sentry Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft&nbsp, and the Embraer KC-390 Millennium Medium Weight Transport Plane to a Chinese foreign-person employees ( FPE)” .&nbsp,

There is no explanation as to why a Taiwanese national worked for Collins Aerospace or for any other inquiries regarding different Chinese nationals. Are these workers also employed in Cedar Rapids?

Collins, through its company in Shanghai, even sought Chinese-company bids for copper screen housing components for the US secrecy F-22 warrior bomber. At least two Collins Chinese people were present.

Collins also” contemporarily and individually exported the same professional information to four PRC companies without authorization.” In another publication in 2023, RTX reported that Collins “released specific circuit card gatherings” to PRC businesses. &nbsp,

These printed circuit boards are covered by Indian regulations ( for example, specifically designed for military use ). Collins says they were inadvertently&nbsp, flagged as falling under Commerce Department Export Administration Act laws. &nbsp,

No details are available that suggest Collins was given a license by the Commerce Department, suggesting that the business handled the purchase as a business without one requiring an export trade license. What security products were used in the charging document?

For the following US techniques, Rockwell Collins even sought printed wires ( printed circuit boards ) from China, according to the Charging Document:

• VC-25 Presidential Transport Aircraft ( Air Force One )

• A-10 Thunderbolt II Close Air Support Attack Aircraft

• B-1B Lancer Supersonic Strategic Heavy Bomber

• B-52 Stratofortress Strategic Bomber

• C-17 Globemaster III Strategic Airlifter

• C-130J Super Hercules Military Transport Aircraft

• CH-53 Super and King Stallion Cargo Helicopter

• F-15 Eagle Fighter Aircraft

• F-16 Fighting Falcon Fighter Aircraft

• F/A-18 Hornet Fighter Aircraft

• KC-46 Pegasus Tanker Aircraft

• KC-130 Tanker Aircraft

• KC-135 Stratotanker Tanker Aircraft

• MQ-4 Triton Surveillance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle ( UAV )

• MQ-8 Fire Scout UAV Helicopter

• MQ-9 Reaper Combat UAV

• MQ-25 Stingray Refueling UAV

• P-8 Poseidon Maritime Patrol Aircraft

• U-2 Reconnaissance Aircraft

The “wiring sheets” are never disclosed in the Charging Document, merely stating that Collins was attempting to outsource them to China.

The company also disclosed that it reexported and retransferred to 25 countries, including China, items ( not otherwise described ) that are parts of the following military systems:

• Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System

• B-2 Spirit Bomber Aircraft

• F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet Fighter Aircraft

• F-15 Eagle Fighter Aircraft, &nbsp,

• F-16 Fighting Falcon Fighter Aircraft

• F-22 Raptor Fighter Aircraft

• F-35 Lightning II Fighter Aircraft

• National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System

• PATRIOT Air Defense System

• Phalanx Close-In Weapons System

• RIM-116 Rolling Airframe Missile

Iran and Russia

” In March 2019, an individual hand-carried a company-issued notebook, which contained ITAR-controlled technical information, to Iran.

The business detected the individual ‘s&nbsp, try to use the computer to connect to the internet while in Iran and initiated a” ice “in reply, restricting access to the computer’s hard drive.

Following the&nbsp, company’s return to the United States, the organization determined that the computer contained USML Category…&nbsp, complex information related to the B-2 Spirit Bomber Aircraft&nbsp, and F-22 Raptor Fighter Aircraft”, according to the Charging Document. The owner’s name is not included, nor is division of the company that employed this&nbsp, people.

Also, in 2021 an Pro individual traveled to St Petersburg, Russia with a company-issued computer. Unlike the Iranian laptop which the company was able to “freeze” ,&nbsp, that did not happen in&nbsp, St Petersburg, as the cyber team in RTX decided that the use of the laptop in Russia was a “false positive” .&nbsp,

It is n’t clear if this&nbsp, trip was for personal reasons, but the report says the staff made four personal visits to Russia to see his fiancé. The computer contained highly sensitive information, including 152 documents that contained complex data “related to the F-15 Eagle Fighter&nbsp, Aircraft, F/A-18&nbsp, Hornet Fighter&nbsp, Aircraft, the F-22 Raptor Fighter Aircraft, the F-35 Lightning II Fighter Aircraft, and the U-2 Reconnaissance Aircraft”.

It is well known that the Russians and the Iranians have considerable cyber-hacking features.

RTX was fined$ 200 million, but the State Department approved putting the business on hold to use the rest of that money to comply with import laws. &nbsp,

One hundred million dollars for trade conformity makes no sense, since a couple million invested in compliance would be more than enough, even in a sizable business. So we can conclude that the$ 200 million fine is only intended for public relations purposes and is actually$ 100 million.

No attempt was made to determine the true value of the US’s hacked surveillance systems or the Chinese goods stuffed into US arms.

It is extremely unsettling that the State Department has been keeping track of this data for centuries. Extremely dangerous is the lack of punishment and prosecution. For unknown reasons, no one is obviously being held responsible.

Since there is n’t much proof that the State Department looked into any of the disclosures to see if they accurately captured what transpired, we are n’t sure if the voluntary disclosures actually captured what transpired. Bottom line: US law enforcement actually did everything in their power to advance National safety objectives.

At Asia Times, Stephen Bryen is the top editor. He served as the Near East Subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee&nbsp and as the assistant undersecretary of security for coverage. &nbsp,

This article &nbsp, was initially published on his&nbsp, Weapons and Strategy&nbsp, Substack, and is republished with authority.

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Can China’s export surge save the day? – Asia Times

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The best economic news President Xi Jinping’s country has received in a while comes from the 8.7 % increase in Chinese imports in August.

The data, which came in significantly higher than the 6.5 % increase most economists anticipated, points to a crucial growth driver for the world’s largest trading country, which is now in desperate need.

According to Nomura Holdings ‘ experts,” the continued strong run of export may really delay near-term policy help.”

China appears to be a clear winner from persistently high global prices, which is boosting the country’s attractiveness in foreign markets. Wei Yao, an economist at Societe Generale, stated that “it truly offers some help to China’s growth.”

The question, of course, is whether the trade engine may continue firing to mitigate robust domestic headwinds. They include a deepening home issue that’s undermining company and home confidence, stagnant wages, negative pressures and great youth unemployment.

The bad news is that export gains do n’t appear to be sufficient to offset the long-term downward pressure on other parts of the economy. The good news: in the short work, rising exports could supply Xi’s staff greater latitude to employ much-needed structural changes.

Finding strategies to regulate real estate markets, repair the stability sheets of large property developers, and balance regional government finances is still a challenge for Xi’s team. Mainland property markets, noted Standard Chartered Bank CEO Bill Winters, have n’t yet found a floor.

The property market has been a slow grind over, according to Winters, who is aware that the property market is the underlying cause of many of the trust concerns.

He continued,” there are some signs from time to time that we’re seeing an increase in activity, but it does n’t feel like we’ve really found a bottom in terms of price.”

Ringing Zu Yu, the president of Shanghai CRIC Info Tech Co, makes another point about the sluggish pace among municipalities in terms of bolstering property markets around the country. ” Regional governments have made gradual headway”, Ding noted.

Imports, process, are proving to be far less strong than exports, a sign that island desire may require a policy-delivered jolt. Although a rate cut from the People’s Bank of China is possible, many academics believe a fiscal boost would have a bigger impact.

According to the Financial Times, investment banks economists believe that China has acquired a US$ 1.4 trillion signal program over the next two decades to rekindle economical growth and prevent deflation from ingraining its roots.

If that number is best, it would be more than double the economic “bazooka” Beijing deployed after the 2008 Lehman Brothers problems. ” The longer that depreciation sits, the bigger the process in terms of reflation”, Robin Xing, general China analyst at Morgan Stanley, told the Financial Times.

Some people think the China-cratering narrative has been a little too much, according to experts and economists.

As Louis Gave, scientist at Gavekal Dragonomics, observes, “it’s hard to find information in the&nbsp, Chinese&nbsp, information that home energy need has taken a noticeable change for the worse”. China’s crude oil imports were up in August, he noted.

” And talk that China’s fuel consumption is down because construction is cratering does n’t stand up well, either”, Gave said. ” Even at its height, the construction sector accounted for less than 4 % of&nbsp, China’s diesel – or gasoline – consumption”.

However, the softness of Chinese exports suggests home demand remains sleepy. The 2 % increase from the previous year on average in August is insignificant in comparison. Lethargic goods, noted analyst Raymond Yeung at Australia &amp, New Zealand Banking Group, “mirrors its poor private demand”.

China’s” strong” trade surplus, Yeung added, may exacerbate” concerns” about mainland “overcapacity”, intensifying the blowback already fomenting among lawmakers in the US, Europe and elsewhere.

Pan Gongsheng, the government of the PBOC, faces a special issue as a result of all of this. Internationalizing the renminbi was a major concern for the Communist Party during the Xi era.

Beijing could become a bigger vote problem in the US, where both presidential candidates have taken harsh aim at China’s trade policies, if more drastic rate cuts are implemented. This will unnerve world markets and cause unrest in the country. Additionally, it may raise the risk of default for Chinese property developers who are unable to pay offshore loan.

Appearing at next year’s Bund Summit in Shanghai, Pan’s PBOC father, Yi Gang, urged Beijing to work with greater policy necessity to maintain customer charges. They should concentrate on battling the negative force, he said.

Yi emphasized that” the key words are: how to boost domestic desire, how to properly deal with the situation of the real estate business, as well as the local authorities debt problem, and how to control the confidence of society.”

The former PBOC head remarked that “at this point, proactive fiscal policy and accommodative monetary policy are important.”

One option is for Pan’s team to further lower reserve requirement ratios for banks further, said Zou Lan, director of the PBoC’s monetary policy department.

The challenge for Chinese policymakers is to manage the housing crisis and ensure that there is enough domestic demand to maintain the high level of economic growth, according to economist Jeffrey Schott of the Washington-based think tank.

According to Schott,” that is so crucial for the Chinese economy and for moving more and more people toward higher standards of living.”

China’s performance so far in 2024 is still marred by weak consumption. In July, for example, retail sales in Beijing dropped 3.8 % year on year. In Shanghai, sales fell 6.1 %.

According to economist Zhang Zhiwei of Pinpoint Asset Management,” the country continues to show divergent trends with weak domestic demand and strong export competitiveness, both reflecting the domestic deflationary pressure.” ” The question is how long exports can continue to grow given the deteriorating US economy and rising trade tensions,” the quote reads.

Strategist Yeap Jun Rong of IG International stated that” the lack of conviction around China’s economic recovery continues to leave investors shunning.”

Consider the$ 6.5 trillion in market value lost from Chinese and Hong Kong stocks since their peak in 2021, a loss comparable to the size of the entire Japanese market.

The issue is that the economy is in a worse place than I thought six months ago, according to Lazard Asset Management strategist Ron Temple, who quoted Bloomberg as saying: “it’s been an incredibly bad period for markets. The longer the government stays silent about initiating significant demand increases, the longer the consumer confidence damage will persist and the harder it will be to stop.

Count Carlos&nbsp, Casanova, economist at Union Bancaire Privée, among those who worry China’s “export momentum in August remains unsustainable”. He stated that” we do not anticipate this trend to continue even though net exports will positively contribute to GDP in August.” Additionally, weak imports suggest that domestic demand is softening.

The export portion of the equation is a positive force for the time being. So are trends in foreign direct investment ( FDI) vis-à-vis top economies like Germany. FDI from Germany into China rose to a record in the first half of 2024, reaching 2.48 billion euros ($ 2.72 billion ) in the first three months of the year and 4.8 billion euros ($ 5.28 billion ) in the April-June period.

This dynamic contradicts German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s warnings about “growing geopolitical risks” between China and the European Union. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the EU, has been encouraging European companies to “de-risk” their positions in Xi’s economy.

” The trend is particularly notable for big German corporations, which have ramped up their investments in the Chinese market, which has long been their largest, most profitable single market”, Zheng Chunrong, director of the German Studies Centre at Tongji University, told the Chinese Communist Party-run Global Times.

According to Maximilian Butek, executive director of the German Chamber of Commerce in China, “our data shows that more than half of German companies plan to increase their investments in the country and the vast majority do n’t plan to leave.” This is particularly true for large corporations and the electronic or automotive industries.

Even so, noted UBP’s Casanova, some of the August export surge may reflect a “front-loading response” to the EU’s impending tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. ” These provisional tariffs”, he said,” will last for a maximum of four months, during which a final decision on definitive duties must be made”.

If adopted, Casanova said,” these duties would be in effect for five years. Additionally, exports of aluminum ( 24.1 % vs. prior 20.5 % ), chemical fertilizers ( 31.6 % vs. prior 15.2 % ) and steel products ( 6.8 % vs. prior -2.4 % ) also saw significant increases”.

According to Casanova,” this trend is understandable in the context of upcoming EV tariffs and a rise in demand for chemical fertilizers in the wake of sanctions against Russia.” Exports to the United States slowed to 4.8 %” versus 7.6 % in the prior month, while demand from ASEAN countries also showed a slight recovery.

The problem, he concluded, is that” a slowdown in major economies, particularly the US and Europe, may diminish demand for Chinese exports in the coming months. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions in the weeks leading up to the US election in November may lead to uncertainty that could affect trade agreements and market access.

Thanks to geopolitical currents– including the November 5 US election–” China’s latest export push is backfiring”, claims economist Jeemin Bang at Moody’s Analytics. ” Its policy-led ramp-up in manufacturing has sparked protectionism abroad, potentially leaving China with few viable export markets”.

The end result is that while export growth is advantageous right now, it may not be a reliable engine until 2025. That will require more courageous actions to address China’s fundamental problems, such as a persistent property crisis and domestic demand-boosting measures that wo n’t go away.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Putin, Zelensky signal a new willingness to talk – Asia Times

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Both Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President, and Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, are suddenly expressing a desire to talk after weeks of strong refusals to discuss.

It’s difficult to establish whether either chief is honest, though Zelensky said he will give his schedule to US President Joe Biden, Ukraine’s biggest military boost, somewhere in November. Putin, whose troops invaded Ukraine first in 2014 and then again in 2022, has n’t articulated precisely what he has in mind.

At the present war commencement, the fighting leaders specified material peace terms that required the other to give up their war aims wholeheartedly. Ukraine demanded the total removal of the Soviet forces that seized eastern Ukraine in 2014 and the Crimean Peninsula. Putin, meanwhile, declared a purpose of incorporating Ukraine into the Russian Federation.

Zelensky’s move, announced last month, is more official. It was contained in a four-point design, which is a shortened version of his ten-point peace plan from 2022.

The” Peace Formula” for 2022 emphasized the need for the Kremlin to pledge not to enter again and the complete removal of all Russian forces. His most recent” Victory Plan” includes a pledge to “end the war in a political manner.”

In response to demands from Northern European allies to ask Russia to discussions, he said,” We understand that it is very hard to socially end this war without the Russian side.”

The current Ukrainian invasion of territory in and around the town of Kursk in much eastern Russia, which Zelensky suggested may encourage allies to provide more economic and military aid, was the “victory” scheme.

Zelensky stated that the primary goal of this strategy is to press Russia to end the war. He also stated that he would details the program with Biden sometime in the fall.

The Kremlin initially ignored Putin’s request for diplomacy and kept to Putin’s unique war goals. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov declared that” the enemy knows our ideas for the denuclearization and denazification of the regime-controlled provinces, as well as the removal of challenges to Russia’s security emanating from it, including our new land, are also known.”

However, in his small comments last year, he appeared to be warming up to discussions. ” If there is a need to deal, we will not refuse”, he said. ” We have not rejected them”.

So, is all this only pretext or major message-sending reflecting some sort of war fatigue?

Each side’s riches on the field have dramatically changed over the past almost two years. First, Russia launched a blitzkrieg-like floor rude that precise big Russian cities, including the money Kiev but which Ukrainian defenders repulsed.

Ukraine launched a counteroffensive the following year to travel the Russians out of the nation but was unable to reach further than a few hundred feet into Russian-defended place. Russians were obstructed by hectares of Russian-made minefields and suffered horrifying casualties from jet and artillery bombardments.

This time, Putin ordered a fresh rude, which has taken some place in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine but which has resulted in a minimal, hard-fought reset of Russian troops.

Putin has declared success anyway. ” We are not talking about advancing 200 or 300 meters”, Putin said last week. ” We have n’t had this kind of pace in the offensive in Donbas for a long time.”

For the moment, the main goal of the Russian campaign is to take the town of Pokrovsk, a communications hub held by the Ukrainians. More consistently brutal assaults have been carried out across the country using armed drone attacks, rocket launches, and artillery fire. Energy infrastructure and civilian targets, including homes and schools, have been destroyed by daily bombardments in Ukraine.

Finally, Ukrainian troops demonstrated their new offensive abilities by staging a surprise cross-border assault on Russia. The Russian city of Kursk was taken as a result of the August thrust, which included the conquest of hundreds of square miles of territory.

Zelensky said as he distributed medals to his soldiers,” Everyone can see that the Ukrainian army knows how to surprise.” Our soldiers are demonstrating this on the battlefield, where they have withstanded the occupiers ‘ overwhelming force and are also destroying it in the necessary way to protect Ukraine.

Additionally, Ukraine has a sizable supply of domestically produced drones that have sunk ships in the Black Sea and hit targets far outside of Russia.

So, who is actually winning and would have the advantages in negotiations?

On paper, nuclear power Russia seems to have the edge, even if its offensive moves are slow. Armed with heavy weapons, domestically produced drones, and numerous imported Iranian weapons, it has thrown around 600,000 soldiers into battle. North Korea has supplied rockets. Steady income from petroleum sales, especially those to India and China, has enabled it to be paid for.

Russian casualties number over 300, 000, according to US officials, and almost a third of them are reportedly dead. Despite sporadic complaints from relatives of the dead and the injured, Putin appears willing to pay a high human price. Whether those figures are higher or lower than reality,

However, according to an article in the foreign policy journal Responsible Statecraft, winning the war on terms that Putin had originally anticipated, such as the annexation and annexation of Ukraine, is unrealistic and bad for Russia. ” Instead, Russia’s incentive is to use its growing advantages as a lever for negotiating with the West”, the article contended.

Nonetheless, the article concluded that establishing “demilitarized buffer zones in Ukraine”, would be enough of an achievement.

Ukraine, on the other hand, is hampered by dependence for arms on sometimes wavering outsiders, especially in Europe, and difficulties in recruiting fresh soldiers at home.

The domestic mass production of ammunition is still slow. As things stand, Ukraine is highly dependent on foreign supplies”, said Huseyn Aliyev, a researcher at the University of Glasgow specializing in Russia and Ukraine.

Ukrainian casualties stand at about 80, 000 killed and 130, 000 wounded, official estimates that some believe are intentionally understated. In April, Zelensky lowered the draft age from 27 years old to 25 in hopes of boosting troop numbers.

“Ukraine may come to feel it ca n’t win”, suggested General Richard Barrons, former head of Britain’s Joint Force Command. ” And when it gets to that point, why will people want to fight and die any longer – just to defend the indefensible”?

Other analysts counter these gloomy assessments by pointing out that Ukrainians have shown remarkable resilience in the face of a much bigger and relentless foe. They blame allies, including the United States, for compounding Ukraine’s weaknesses by rationing arms and limiting their use.

” Western incrementalism&nbsp, in the provision of military ]arms ] …strengthens Putin’s ability to absorb risk”, writes the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank. The Kremlin will have to deal with its mounting issues if US support for Ukraine continues and grows.

ISW argued that Ukraine should also be permitted to launch rockets fired from Western-provided targets anywhere in Russia.

In any case, Ukraine is faced with a paradox because it needs to demonstrate significant military advancement to elicit more weapons from the West, increasing the likelihood of such success. The Rand Corporation, a second US-based think tank, wrote that” Showing skill in invading Russian territory cannot be repeated unless it receives more military assistance.”

Zelensky appears to be aware of the problem, and he is not just betting on Biden. In order to take the place of the lame duck Biden in the November US elections, he intends to address Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.

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