Turkey’s carrier battlegroup takes shape – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Turkey’s optimistic maritime projects, including a destroyer, a submarine, and an aircraft carrier, signal a brave bid for both political prestige and naval power.

This month, Naval News reported that the &nbsp, Turkish Ministry of Defense announced the resumption of three major naval jobs: the MUGEM plane ship, the TF-2000 battleship and the MILDEN underwater.

Naval News mentions that the steel-cutting rites for MUGEM and TF-2000 were held at the Istanbul Naval Shipyard, while the MILDEN ceremony took place at the Gölcük Naval Shipyard.

In terms of dimensions, Naval News states in a separate October 2024 report that the MUGEM ship features an optimized hull shape for superior ship, balance and flexibility, with a spear layout that reduces energy intake by 1.5 % and improves underwater noise propagation.

MUGEM will have three runways, two for takeoff and one for landing, at the time of the announcement, according to Naval News, without a catapult system. A modular ramp design will be used until a domestic catapult system is developed, according to the report.

For its air wing, the report says the carrier can house up to 50 aircraft, including manned and unmanned systems, with space for 20 aircraft on the deck and 30 in the hangar.

In terms of armament, Naval News says the MUGEM will be armed with a 32-cell MIDLAS Vertical Launch System, four Gökdeniz Close-in Weapon Systems ( CIWS ) and six Aselsan 25-millimeter STOP Remote Weapon Systems.

Naval News says that the MUGEM carrier’s dimensions include a length of 285 meters, a beam of 72 meters, a draft of 10.1 meters, a displacement of 60, 000 tons, a maximum speed of over 25 knots, a cruising speed of 14 knots and a range of 10, 000 nautical miles at cruising speed.

Alongside the MUGEM carrier, Naval News mentions that the TF-2000 destroyer, part of the MILGEM program, will be equipped with a 96-cell vertical launch system and advanced radar systems. This warship may be used as the MUGEM carrier’s escort. Naval News says that the MILDEN submarine, developed by the Turkish Naval Research Center Command, will feature an Air-Independent Propulsion ( AIP ) system, enhancing its stealth and operational endurance.

According to the report, the projects are anticipated to significantly improve Turkey’s maritime defense capabilities.

Turkey was forced to convert its TCG Anadolu landing helicopter dock ( LHD ) into a drone carrier in 2019 after being expelled from the US F-35 program for its controversial purchase of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missiles ( SAM ) despite being a NATO member. The S-400 is incompatible with NATO defense architecture, and Turkey operating the S-400 SAM alongside F-35s could compromise the latter’s stealth features, allowing Russia to detect the aircraft better.

However, drone carriers may be a less-than-ideal solution for Turkey’s capability requirements and great power ambitions.

Fatih Yurtsever claims in a Turkish Minute article from August 2021 that the TCG Anadolu was designed with 8-10 F-35Bs in mind, making that type the only viable aircraft for the ship. According to Yurtsever, it is unrealistic to hope that drones can effectively replace manned aircraft altogether while Turkey is trying to make up for the loss of the F-35Bs by turning the TCG Anadolu into a drone carrier.

He claims that the concept of drone carriers has not been thoroughly tested. He also points out that since drones don’t have air-to-air combat capability yet and have limited survivability against even rudimentary air defenses, they are confined to intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance ( ISR ) operations and small-scale strikes.

Sinan Ciddi further mentions that Turkey has begun discussions with the US to reinstate the F-35 program in an article from September 2024. According to Ciddi, the S-400 issue is the only obstacle to Turkey’s reinstatement and that the US would not accept anything less than the S-400 system’s complete removal from Turkish territory.

Determined to replace the F-35, Turkey, as Asia Times reported in February 2024, had test-flown its domestically built KAAN 4.5-generation fighter, which features 85 % indigenous parts. However, the KAAN still uses two US-made General Electric F110-GE-129 turbofan engines and falls short of being a true 5th-generation fighter like the F-35.

Also, Turkey’s poor economic performance could result in cost overruns for KAAN production. Turkey could spread out production costs over several years, but that could lead to an outdated product on delivery.

But even if the US reinstates Turkey into the F-35B program and gets KAAN production up to speed, the TCG Anadolu’s small air wing can present an offense-defense dilemma. While deploying more aircraft in an attack may make the carrier vulnerable, avoiding one for fleet air defense may reduce the force of the attack.

Yurtsever suggests that Turkey should consider manned-unmanned teaming, wherein F-35Bs can control devoted wingman drones that act as “missile trucks” rather than trying to find out how to control untested and untested solutions like drone carriers. In that network-centric configuration, he mentions that the F-35B could launch the drone’s missiles against land or surface targets, effectively increasing the aircraft’s ammunition capacity while keeping it out of reach from enemy air defenses. &nbsp,

Power projection and prestige appear to be significant components of Turkey’s carrier program. Turkey’s current fleet of F-16s and F-4 fighter jets is insufficient for power projection over the Aegean, Mediterranean, and Black Seas. Turkey also has a significant role in the ongoing conflicts in Libya and Syria and is setting up an extra-regional presence with military installations in Qatar and Somalia.

Turkey would have a floating airbase to cover areas that are beyond the reach of its land-based aircraft by using an aircraft carrier.

Turkey would also be included in the elite group of nations that operate such complex and expensive warships, according to an aircraft carrier. The prestige and symbolism of aircraft carriers align with Turkish President Recep Erdogan’s neo-Ottomanism, which seeks to bolster Turkish influence in regions once under the Ottoman Empire. However, Erdogan’s neo-Ottomanism faces significant challenges, such as increasing authoritarianism and political polarization in Turkey, economic woes, complicated relations with Europe and NATO, and costly military interventions abroad.

Continue Reading

How Trump’s must-do trade deficit fix attempts will affect China – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Trump’s potential presidential candidate receives too little consideration, and not enough of it is what he ( or any other president of the United States ) needs to do.

Serious trade deficits have given the United States a disproportionately large share of global trade desire over the past 30 times. Each year, the United States sells assets, most of which are now multinational stocks, to pay off its trillion-dollar trade deficit. Some people believe that Trump places too much emphasis on the US trade deficit, or that his preferred approach ( tariffs ) may not be the best solution to the issue. However, it may stop what is not sustainable. This may alter how the United States behaves, which will have significant effects on China.

The US current account deficit of$ 800 billion is in line with Japan, China, and Germany’s trade surpluses. To be sure, China’s direct exports to the US have fallen from 8 % of GDP in 2007 to just 2.3 % last year ( in dollar terms ). China exports more to the global South now than all developed nations combined, but a large portion of its exports to the world South depend on those nations ‘ US imports.

The United States, out of the nations above, has the biggest current account deficit. The horizontal axis is the information for 2023, in billions of US dollars&nbsp,.

The U. S. net foreign investment place, the difference between foreign assets owned by Americans and U. S. property owned by foreigners, is then unfavorable$ 24 trillion, compared with unfavorable$ 18 trillion when Trump left office. However, the national debt has grown to$ 35 trillion, larger than the government’s GDP. Both trends are representative of the Biden administration’s tried borrowing strategy to promote consumption and swell imports. Under Biden, the U. S. gross international funding status has fallen at a record rate.

The US net foreign investment position ( blue line ) and the federal government debt have changed historically. System: trillion US dollars.

National users have long been the primary source of global demand. That is untenable, no matter who is in the White House. The United States has largely sold stocks to other countries over the past few years to pay off its trade deficits. In 2012, international standard institutions stopped purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds. Since 2020, most of the new national debt has been financed by U. S. economic institutions, a possible fragile design. A reduction in U. S. stocks may make U. S. property less attractive to foreigners, and U. S. economic institutions cannot compensate for a federal deficit of 6 % of GDP long.

What does this mean for China?

Seasonally adjusted comparison of China’s exports to the Global South ( blue line ) and U. S. imports from the Global South ( excluding China ) ( red line ). Unit: million USD/month.

As mentioned above, China’s direct dependence on the US market has been greatly reduced, and China’s exports have shifted to the global South, but China’s indirect dependence on the US market is still very large. The chart shows that from 2020 to 2023, China’s exports to the global South increased from about US$ 60 billion per month to US$ 120 billion per month, an astonishing increase. However, US imports from the global South also increased from about US$ 40 billion per month in 2020 to about US$ 80 billion per month in 2023. The global South’s exports to the United States affect a sizable portion of China’s exports there. Vietnam’s situation largely reflects this, with exports to the US making up a quarter of Vietnam’s own GDP, whereas the cases of Indonesia and Brazil are less well known.

the changes in each nation’s GDP over time in terms of the share of exports to the United States. The dark blue dotted line represents Vietnam, the dark green represents Brazil, and the light blue dotted line represents Indonesia.

Everything depends on how much trade is recouped by the US. If Trump imposes high tariffs, as he hinted during the campaign, prices in the United States will rise and consumption will collapse. The purpose of tariffs is to raise domestic prices to encourage domestic production. Shrinking US demand will in turn depress growth in Europe, Japan, and the global South, and China will also be affected. According to my calculations, the United States now imports most of its capital goods. If tariffs cause the cost of capital goods to go up, domestic manufacturers ‘ benefits may far outweigh the negative effects of higher prices. No matter what steps the government takes, in this situation, China’s economic growth will decline, even though domestic stimulus measures can partially address this issue.

Is it possible to lessen the United States ‘ reliance on imports without stifling economic growth? Personal consumption expenditures made up 84 % of the US GDP growth over the past ten years. There have been booms in both the consumption and investment sectors in the United States. In fact, since 2000, the capital stock of US manufacturing equipment has not changed in real terms.

As can be seen in the figure below, U.S. retail sales and imports ( both shown as deflating series ) have synchronized over the past 20 years, with each increase in consumption corresponding to an increase in imports.

Comparison of the latest U. S. retail sales and food services ( blue line, corresponding to the right vertical axis, unit: million, 1982-1984 consumer price index adjusted US dollars ) and actual goods imports ( green dashed line, corresponding to the left vertical axis, unit: billion, 2017 chained US dollars ). &nbsp, Data source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U. S. Department of Commerce.

Some production may be moved to the United States from abroad. Trump has repeatedly asked Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers to set up factories in the US to produce goods for the country. This is a solution to some extent, but it is very difficult to implement. Due to a lack of qualified talent, equipment, and infrastructure, the Biden administration has given semiconductor manufacturers enormous subsidies, but the result of the boom in factory construction has resulted in a 30 % increase in the cost of new industrial plants in the United States between 2022 and 2023. Trump may also demand that Chinese-produced electric vehicles in the United States use American chips.

America needs a new manufacturing culture. Once great manufacturing companies such as Boeing and Intel have failed many times, but America’s ability to adapt should not be underestimated. Before establishing a factory in Shanghai, Tesla also made cars in California. However, it will take time for American manufacturing to recover. The Federal Reserve’s industrial production index peaked at 106 in 2008 and is now only 99. America needs to resurrect its infrastructure, train talented technical workers, and create a new generation of business owners.

As President Trump suggested in 2019, China might agree to purchase more American goods, including agricultural products and hydrocarbons. Trump has argued in recent weeks that China has “failed to live up to” its commitments to purchase American goods. China would be wise to accept this offer if he makes it again. Whatever the cost of growing American soybeans is, it will be much less expensive than the other options. However, the most likely scenario is that the US will impose severe tariffs on Chinese and other imports.

The United States will continue to implement export controls on semiconductor equipment and development tools in the future because it still has a competitive advantage in some technological fields. The effectiveness of this policy is increasingly uncertain among American analysts, but Washington’s political climate does not allow for a relaxation of export controls.

China will have to adjust to the declining US demand for its manufactured goods, just like Europe and Japan. The Global South, with its 7 billion people, also has a huge demand for manufactured goods, but challenges and opportunities exist. Exports from the Global South to the United States account for a large portion of China’s export success, as previously mentioned. The Global South faces a number of challenges, including the lack of infrastructure and technology, as well as the country’s poor governance and political challenges, in order to realize its growth potential. The greater challenge facing the Global South is developing an endogenous growth model in contrast to export-driven economic growth.

To a considerable extent, China’s export industries have contributed to long-term productivity gains in its trading partners. Infrastructure in the telecommunications industry is a good illustration. According to the International Labour Organization ( ILO ), the so-called informal sector employs 60 % of the world’s workforce. These people do not pay taxes, have little access to government services, and most do not have access to banking. Mobile broadband supports the creation of businesses, formal employment, and integration into the financial system. Infrastructure in the digital sector can significantly improve productivity and governance, just like it can in the physical sector. Not all of the Belt and Road Initiative investments will yield such significant benefits, and China will need to make wise decisions about their investment priorities in the future.

Western economists urge China to resuscitate the Biden administration and increase consumption by reducing debt. This may temporarily increase output, but it is not a long-term solution. The main issue is that the world’s largest economies, including China, are lacking in young people. The only realistic solution is to boost the productivity of young people in the global South, unless current demographic trends can be reversed.

This article first appeared on The Observer ( guancha.cn ), a Chinese news and opinion website. It is republished with permission.

Continue Reading

Ukraine closure of Gazprom Europe pipeline hurts Russia war effort – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Kyiv has suddenly turned off Russia’s fuel source to Europe, ending a source of income that helped pay for Moscow’s war against Ukraine. The decades-old agreement, which made it possible for Gazprom’s natural gas to travel through Ukraine through Ukraine, expired on December 31 at midnight, thereby ending Russia’s final key fuel corridor.

The movement is mainly symbolic because Russia’s dependence on it has already drastically decreased since the invasion of Europe in February 2022. However, it doesn’t negate the significance of the selection or suggest that there won’t be any repercussions for the remaining Gazprom consumers in Europe.

Russia will continue to supply some oil via the Turkstream network across the Black Sea, primarily to Serbia and Hungary. In addition to the closing of the Yamal-Europe network through Belarus and the cancellation of Nordstream 2 in 2022, Gazprom has suffered another significant blow as a result of the loss of transit contacts through Ukraine.

Gazprom reported its first running damage in a year, reporting its first loss since 1999, and is now expected to lose another €5 to €6 billion. This will also help the business decrease its tax contributions to the Soviet budget.

Russia only recently provided around 41 % of the EU’s energy needs. It currently simply offers about 8 %.

It has found new users in Asia, primarily for fuel. Major portions of its oil infrastructure are currently inactive. And while it is fighting Ukraine, its gas export markets are being redirected to Asia, which is too slowly and expensive to maintain.

The EU has demonstrated a surprising ability to muster the political will and political will to bear the consequences after quickly kicking off Russian gas by finding new suppliers, especially of liquified natural gas ( LNG ) in the US and Norway.

Gas storage tank across Europe are now more than 90 % complete, and the EU has even increased its strength endurance. Charges have also fallen far below their 2022 inflationary peaks. There is no denying that Brussels will be able to control the consequences of Ukraine’s oil supply interruption.

This is also made easier by the fact that only three states, until late, still depended on Russian supplies.

Austria stopped receiving fuel in November after a legal debate with Gazprom, but the country had plans in place that were quickly and effectively implemented to reduce disturbance.

Hungary can make up for its shortfalls by supplying its goods mainly via the Turkstream pipeline. Additionally, it may purchase more LNG from Croatia, where the EU constructed a sizable new switch to practice goods, generally from the US.

For Slovakia, also, the vitality risks are minimal. The nation has available options for the supply of electricity and gas because it is well integrated into the EU energy system.

Russia's European gas network, 2014.
When it all worked: Russia’s gas pipes into Europe in 2014. Map: East European Gas Analysis

In any case, just about one-third of the roughly 12 billion cubic meters of Russian oil are used for private use. The remaining portion was profitably sold within the EU. The government’s Russia-friendly perfect minister, Robert Fico, tried hard to get the travel package renewed. False allegations of an energy crisis in Europe, risks to condemn Ukraine for breaking the transit agreement, and a trip to Moscow in December, which is unusual for an EU head of government, were included. But all to no cost.

Crisis in Moldova

Even worse, the days of Putin being able to quickly sabotage energy resources against EU people are now over with the end of the gas transits through Ukraine. However, the close of Russian gas transits through Ukraine is not without victims.

Moldova has been seriously affected. And in government-controlled areas of the country, a 60-day strength state of emergency introduced in December has imposed major restrictions on domestic use.

Moldova’s state seems convinced that the country you survive the winter. However, its lack of preparedness for the crisis, which was already evident since Ukraine announced in the summer of 2023 that it would not renew its travel agreement with Russia, led to the departure of its energy secretary and principal state power company head in November.

This does not reflect well on the pro-European state, which will have parliamentary elections in 2025. It is still recovering from a greatly contentious referendum on a possible future EU membership and national elections in October 2024, both of which were hampered by large Russian voter-buying and propaganda campaigns.

The far more perilous position in the rebel area of Transnistria may be an even bigger issue. Around 300,000 people there were entirely dependent on Ukrainian oil that was delivered through Ukraine.

They have no heat or warm fluids as of January 1. Although the state’s primary power plant has switched from gas to coal, petroleum has only been available for about 50 times.

The population’s only bare necessities are those that are domestic, and Transnistria’s financial model was fully based on the availability of effectively free Russian gas. With this now being unavailable, there is a chance that an economical and humanitarian crises will quickly spiral out of control.

This, in turn, poses significant social and security threats for Moldova. Moldova is already buckling under its own financial and energy crises, but it has little choice in helping Transnistria or handling the large number of migrants.

Although this may provide an ideal opportunity to reshape the situation, Moldova may take an enormous risk in doing so. Following a quick, violent discord in the early 1990s, Russian forces were stationed there as “peacekeepers” and guarded an outdated Russian munitions backup facility. Its population has been largely influenced by separatist and Russian propaganda for more than three decades, which had scarcely help the pro-European ballot.

None of this implies that Moldova may experience violent trauma or that Russia will somehow be able to influence the situation so that Ukraine’s back had become a target for a minute front. With its last major piece of the power battle with Europe now over, Russia is the biggest loser in the long run as a result of the ending of gasoline transits through Ukraine.

The University of Birmingham’s Stefan Wolff is an assistant teacher of global security.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

Continue Reading

Is China’s economy ‘ahead’ of America’s? – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Many people are really interested in the results of comparisons between the markets of different countries, and it is a popular game. For instance, I see a lot of people passing around charts&nbsp, like this one, claiming to demonstrate that China’s economy has fallen behind the US ‘ since 2021:

In the WSJ, Jason Douglas and Ming Li present a more in-depth type that shows how estimates of the two markets ‘ styles have changed over time.

Source: WSJ

In Bloomberg, Hal Brands&nbsp, cites this data&nbsp, to support his argument that the US is also back of China in terms of international power:

People predicted that China would immediately overtake the US as the world’s largest economy. But that crossing place is receding ever further into the future, thanks to strong British growth and deepening Foreign stagnation…Over the previous half-decade, the overall&nbsp, gap&nbsp, between the US and Taiwanese economies — as measured by gross domestic product — has been getting larger.

Therefore, if you only take a look at this information, you might get the feeling that China’s economy is struggling and won’t be able to catch up. But then if you read the news, you hear that China’s GDP is&nbsp, growing at a rate of “around 5 %”, while the US&nbsp, grew at only 3.1 % &nbsp, in 2024. That’s a solid year for the US, but it’s not obvious how China’s economy may be falling behind America’s if its growth rate is higher!

The issue here really has nothing to do with whether or not China’s GDP progress is overstated. Yes, it’s probable that this is the circumstance— for instance, &nbsp, Rhodium Group guesstimates&nbsp, that China’s real rise in 2024 was under 3 %. But the figures above truly get the Chinese administration’s 5 % figure at face value. So why do they depict China laggarding America?

There are many different ways to compare GDP, which is the true cause of the gap. The two fundamental steps are:

  1. GDP at&nbsp, business exchange rates, likewise called “nominal”
  2. GDP at&nbsp, purchasing power parity ( PPP ), also called “international dollars”, also called” adjusted for differences in the cost of living”

If you use the second of these steps, you see China’s GDP falling behind America’s, as in the two figures below. But if you use the following estimate, you see China’s GDP now ahead of America’s, and pulling further away every year ( albeit at a slower rate than before 2021 ):

You’ll see that this table says” adjusted for…differences in the cost of living between places”, and “international$”. That means PPP.

GDP is expressed in US money at the marketplace exchange rate. You only get a government’s GDP numbers ( which are measured in its domestic money ), change that amount to money using the latest exchange rate, and that’s the country’s “nominal” GDP.

That’s really easy to calculate and calculate. However, it implies that when exchange rates change, it appears that different economies ‘ relative sizes even change, despite producing exactly the same amount of goods as before. In this instance, it turns out that China’s yuan or RMB has been depreciating against the US dollars for centuries.

Here is a chart of the amount of currency one Chinese yuan you purchase:

Source: Xe.com

You’ll notice that the yuan’s price decreased significantly in late 2021 despite being a little weak in the first half of the year. That’s a big part of the reason that China’s nominal GDP fell equivalent to America’s over the last three decades. The decline in China’s established real progress rate was &nbsp, part&nbsp, of the decline, but much of it was only an effect of the cheaper renminbi.

In fact, assuming the renminbi stays low, the prediction for China’s ability to get up to America over the next 15 years are almost certain. If the yuan appreciates, China’s nominal GDP will immediately appear like it jumped off.

In reality, if China lets the yuan fall a bit, it will look like China’s economy immediately overtook America’s in size — this is what happened in the late 1980s when Japan allowed its yen to understand, and Japan’s nominal GDP suddenly&nbsp, looked like it was almost as big&nbsp, as America’s.

There is debate about whether market exchange rates are effective for comparing nations’ GDP. On one hand, it’s easy to measure, because exchange rates themselves are clear and unambiguous. And if you care about imports, the number of items that can be purchased by two different nations is undoubtedly the best thing to look at in terms of GDP at the market exchange rate. When China’s currency gets weaker, it means China can afford fewer imports.

So if you’re in a third country like South Korea, and you’re asking,” Which is a more important market for my goods, China or America”?, the answer has definitely shifted toward” America” over the last three years. And lo and behold, America recently overtook China as&nbsp, South Korea’s largest export market. GDP may be translated into clout within international economic organizations as well.

However, market exchange rate GDP comparisons do have some significant drawbacks. First of all, policy can be used to determine exchange rates rather than market fundamentals. The yuan and the dollar were once correlated in China. It now employs a “managed float,” which allows the exchange rate to fluctuate within a certain range set by the Chinese government. In practice, &nbsp, this can look sort of like a peg.

This implies that if China’s government made the decision to change the yuan’s trading range against the dollar, it might be able to suddenly make its economy appear larger than America’s in charts like those at the top of this post.

And it has the power to do so if China decides to lower its currency to encourage global exports. That will make its economy look smaller in nominal terms, but in fact it will improve China’s export competitiveness, so in some ways it means China’s economy is actually&nbsp, stronger.

More fundamentally, exchange rates don’t affect real living standards. Despite all the reports about trade imbalances and other issues, the majority of what Chinese people buy is produced in China, and the majority of what Americans buy is produced there.

This includes rent, medical care, transportation, and so on. That implies that local prices will influence Chinese people’s material living standards significantly more than those of international ones.

PPP is an attempt to adjust for variations in local prices. International organizations like the World Bank conduct research in various nations to examine local prices of non-retail goods like rent and medical care. Then, they create a price index from which these are then derived. When comparing these price indices across nations, you can get a PPP conversion factor that they use to compare economies.

In theory, this gives a better comparison of how much&nbsp, actual stuff&nbsp, different countries produce. However, this approach has many practical flaws.

First of all, the teams sent by the World Bank and other organizations to check local prices won’t always receive a large sample of those prices. They might not look enough at small towns and too much at expensive cities like Shanghai. Or they might ignore the low price difference between regular apples in a boutique grocery store when purchasing expensive, premium apples.

On top of that, PPP is often out of date. Prices can fluctuate a lot, and the companies that conduct PPP surveys can’t conduct a thorough survey every year. This can lead to&nbsp, big sudden revisions&nbsp, that change our understanding of the past as well as the present.

As if that weren’t enough, PPP also has a hard time comparing quality between different countries ‘ goods and services. People who conduct surveys for the World Bank may not realize that a haircut in Japan might be superior to a haircut in America, but it might be. 1&nbsp,

That quality difference should make Japan’s GDP ( PPP ) a little higher relative to America’s, but in practice, the statistics will often miss it. This is particularly crucial when it comes to the high-end medical care and housing stock.

Finally, because people buy different things in different countries, overall prices are difficult to compare. People in one nation might spend more on housing and less on health care than people in another. Do they do that because their primary concern is the cost of health care there, or because they simply want more of it? It’s hard to say.

All of these measurement issues lead to&nbsp, big discrepancies&nbsp, between countries ‘ own internal growth numbers and changes in the international PPP comparisons. And they cause a general ambiguity regarding how much we should trust PPP figures. When I cite PPP comparisons, someone often pops up in the comment section or the X replies to say “PPP is garbage”!.

That’s wrong — PPP is&nbsp, not&nbsp, garbage, it’s just hard to measure. But when you’re comparing individual living standards — that is, per capita GDP— there’s really just no alternative. You have no choice but to use PPP if you want to find out how wealthy people in China, America, or France actually are. This is because how much actual stuff a person can buy depends much more on local prices than exchange rates.

When it comes to comparing&nbsp, national power and importance, though, it’s not clear PPP is the right measure either. The price of haircuts isn’t always a factor in the rise and fall of great powers.

But lots of things that are purchased domestically rather than traded on world markets are &nbsp, very&nbsp, important for national power — for example, the salaries of soldiers, locally sourced armaments, local logistics costs, and so on. So if you want to look at military strength, you can’t really use market exchange rates either.

For this reason, some people attempt to create a “military PPP” that explicitly accounts for military expenditures. These numbers show, for example, that China’s military spending is&nbsp, much closer to America ‘s&nbsp, in size than official dollar numbers reflect.

However, national power is largely determined by factors other than armies alone. For instance, many of the civilian consumer goods produced could be turned into military products in the event of a major war, just like it was in America and many other nations in World War 2. Therefore, you can’t just look at defense spending when you want to learn about military capacity; you must also take into account all the dual-use items.

Earlier this year, Han Feizi&nbsp, used this sort of comparison&nbsp, to argue that China’s economy is already much bigger than America’s:

China’s PPP GDP is only 25 % larger than that of the US? Come on people… who are we kidding? China produced 2x as much electricity as the US last year, and it produced 12.6 times as much steel and 22 times as much cement. China’s shipyards accounted for over 50 % of the world’s output while US production was negligible. In 2023, China produced 30.2 million vehicles, almost three times more than the 10.6 million made in the US…On the demand side, 26 million vehicles were sold in China last year, 68 % more than the 15.5 million sold in the US. Chinese consumers bought 434 million smartphones, three times the 144 million sold in the US. China consumes eight times as much seafood and twice as much meat as the US as a nation.

A recent post&nbsp, by the blogger” Austrian China” makes a number of other such comparisons — all of which are in China’s favor.

The claim here &nbsp is pretty bad when it comes to measuring living standards because it doesn’t account for true economic output and that comparisons should focus primarily on physical goods.

It makes no sense to just leave these out of international comparisons and concentrate only on electricity, cars, and ships because they are incredibly important determinants of how pleasant a life citizens of different countries lead.

But if you’re comparing&nbsp, national power, this sort of argument might make a&nbsp, lot&nbsp, of sense. When a foreign empire’s bombs are pouring down on your cities and foreign missiles are sending your country’s fleet to the bottom of the sea, having nice housing, good medical care, or high-quality insurance services won’t help you much.

Fundamentally speaking, this is why I believe Americans should find it hard to believe that their GDP at market exchange rates is higher than China’s. With the world looking&nbsp, more dangerous and warlike&nbsp, by the day, manufacturing is a competition that the US and its allies can ill afford to lose.

Yes, China boosters like Han Feizi and” Austrians” who care only about physical goods are overconfident about the supremacy of the world’s sole manufacturing superpower. But in my judgment, taking comfort in America’s higher nominal GDP numbers is even more dangerously complacent.

Note:

1 I can assure you that the World Bank researchers are not known for their fashionable haircuts with reasonable assurance.

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

Continue Reading

US sanctions China-based hackers’ cybersecurity service provider – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

A Beijing-based cybersecurity company was sanctioned by the US Department of Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control ( OFAC ) and charged it with supporting a group of hackers who had attacked American organizations.

Integrity Technology Group, according to the OFAC, has been a victim of numerous system intrusions in the US. Flax Typhoon, a Taiwanese destructive state-sponsored digital group that has been engaged since at least 2021 and frequently targets businesses within US critical infrastructure sectors, has been given the all-clear credit for these incidents. &nbsp,

Bradley Smith, acting director of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, stated,” The Treasury Department will never hesitate to hold malicious computer celebrities and their drivers accountable for their actions.” As we continue to work together to strengthen public and private sector computer defenses, the US will employ all available means to counteract these risks.

According to the OFAC, Flax Typhoon has compromised computer systems in North America, Europe, Africa, and across Asia, with a special emphasis on Taiwan. It uses legitimate remote access software to keep consistent control over its victims ‘ networks before attempting to gain first access to their computers using publicly known vulnerabilities.

According to OFAC, Flax Typhoon players used system connected to Integrity Tech during hacking operations against many victims between mid-2022 and soon 2023. Flax Typhoon frequently received and sent data from Integrity Technology facilities at the time.

” On this kind of unnecessary and groundless claims, we’ve made apparent our place more than once”, Mao Ning, a director of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said in a press briefing. ” China opposes all forms of phishing and, in particular, we oppose spreading China-related deception motivated by political agenda”.

In an editorial published on January 2, The China Daily, a state-owned newspaper, claimed that the US had used cutting-edge technology to insert Foreign words and codes into ransomware in the attacked methods to avert the perception that Flax Typhoon is related to China. &nbsp,

Instead of “wasting its day concocting yet another far-fetched plot where Beijing plays the baddie,” it recommended Washington examine cybersecurity with Beijing in working groups.

In an article published on January 4, a Fujian-based journalist using the moniker” Little Penguin” claims that” the US was inferior to others in security knowledge.” ” In rage, it began to pour filthy water on China”.

” The US is the one who launched cyberattacks. More than a thousand centrifuges at Iran’s Natanz nuclear hospital failed as a result of a computer virus that was implanted by the US and Israel in 2007, according to the author. &nbsp,

He claims that the US tried various means of attack, such as restrictions, to harm Chinese companies because it has for a very long time failed to break into China’s security system.

The OFAC’s latest sanction came after the US Justice Department on September 18, 2024, announced a court-authorized law enforcement operation that disrupted a botnet consisting of more than 200, 000 consumer devices ( so-called “zombies” in computer jargon ) in the US and worldwide.

In addition to Flax Typhoon, two additional China-based qualified intrusion adversaries, Ethereal Panda and Volt Storms, likewise became engaged in 2021, according to Texas-based security firm Crowdstrike. &nbsp,

Volt Storms

On May 24, 2023, Microsoft said Volt Storms targeted critical infrastructure organizations in Guam and elsewhere in the US. On August 24 of the same year, it said Flax Typhoon targeted dozens of organizations in Taiwan with the key intention of performing espionage.  

In a report released in February 2024, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency ( CISA ), National Security Agency ( NSA ), and Federal Bureau of Investigation ( FBI ) stated that the state-sponsored cyber actors in the People’s Republic of China are attempting to pre-position themselves for cyberattacks in the event of a major crisis or conflict with the US.

Five Eyes countries’ Joint Cybersecurity Advisory said Volt Storms might launch destructive cyberattacks against critical infrastructure in the US and allies. 

In March, Michael Regan, administrator of the US Environmental Protection Agency, and Jake Sullivan, national security advisor to the president, told US state governors in a letter that Volt Stormss cyber attacks were striking water and wastewater systems throughout the US. 

On April 15 last year, China’s National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center (CVERC) and the 360 Digital Security Group jointly published a report titled “Volt Storms: A Conspiratorial Swindling Campaign Targets with US Congress and Taxpayers Conducted by US Intelligence Community.”

“Volt Storms is actually a ransomware cybercriminal group that calls itself the ‘Dark Power’ and is not sponsored by any state or region,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said last April, citing the CVERC report.

He added that some US citizens have been using origin-tracing of cyberattacks to target and body China, making the claim that the US is the victim while China is the other way around and politicizing security concerns.

Cao Xing, a doctor at Beijing’s China University of Political Science and Law, writes in an article that was published on January 3 that” the most recent criticism against China is just the tip of the iceberg.” &nbsp,

Looking back on the past several years, Cao says it’s not difficult to see how the US has occasionally tied” digital risks” to China. ” For instance, the US had blamed China for the hacking of senior US authorities ‘ email accounts, including those of the US Ambassador to China.”

He claims that China’s studies have now established that the complaints made by the United States were unsupported. He claims that it’s better for the earth to co-operate and address the issues rather than engage in blind conflict because the intricate web culture may have become a stage for “modern warfare.”

In an annual report submitted to the US Congress on December 18, the US Department of Defense said that since at least 2019, Volt Storms has been compromising and prepositioning itself on US critical infrastructure organizations’ networks to enable disruption or destruction of critical services in the event of increased geopolitical tensions or military conflict with the US and its allies. 

The department said Volt Storms’s targets span multiple critical infrastructure sectors – including communications, energy, transportation systems and water – in the continental and non-continental US and its territories, including Guam. 

It claimed that China’s state-sponsored hackers targeted US defense organizations throughout 2023 and that they had been stealing sensitive information for economic and military gain. &nbsp,

” The targeted information can benefit the PRC’s defense high-technology industries, support the PRC’s military modernization, provide the PRC’s leadership with insights into US plans and intentions, and enable diplomatic negotiations”, it said. &nbsp,

The Asia Times has Yong Jian as a contributor. He is a Chinese journalist who specializes in Chinese technology, economy and politics. &nbsp,

Read: Beijing slams Five Eyes for cyberattack allegations

Continue Reading

China simulating surprise US missile attack in South China Sea – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

In the contested South China Sea, China’s simulation protection against a US stealth missile abuse exposes a high-stakes struggle for modern power pitting cunning against counter-stealth abilities.

This month, the South China Morning Post (SCMP ) reported that Chinese scientists have simulated a surprise US attack on a People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) carrier group in the South China Sea, revealing key details about the US military’s latest stealth anti-ship missile, the AGM-158C Long Range Anti-Ship Missile ( LRASM).

According to SCMP, the model, led by researcher Wang Tianxiao from the North China Institute of Computing Technology, aimed to improve the PLA’s measures and techniques. The US launched a massive assault using ten LRASMs, according to the article, which was conducted near the Pratas Islands.

These rockets, known for their radar cunning capabilities and almost 1, 000-kilometer selection, targeted a Chinese destroyer in the modeling. The PLA deployed electronic warfare disturbance, but the weapons switched to thermal imaging cameras, which effectively hit the target.

Potential military strategies, according to SCMP, could be significantly impacted by the simulation’s extraordinary realism and precise parameters. Nevertheless, the SCMP report points out that the information used in the modeling remains unclear, with the Chinese group claiming it came from open-source knowledge and long-term formation.

It adds that the US government classified the LRASM’s professional characteristics and functional methods, making the Taiwanese player’s claims difficult to verify separately.

The Foreign simulation’s choice to use covert cruise missiles may be a result of the benefits the latter has over the latter and the fact that the US has not yet developed any fast arms. In the short-term, using stealthy cruise missiles against Chinese targets is more likely to lead to a potential conflict in Taiwan.

In a September 2024 article, the Asia Times mentioned that hypersonic missiles and stealth cruise missiles like the LRASM offer a number of advantages.

Firstly, their low radar cross-section and low infrared signature make them difficult for enemy defenses to spot and intercept. Secondly, they reduce dependency on external intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance ( ISR ) platforms, ensuring effectiveness in intense electromagnetic warfare environments.

Thirdly, their capability to coordinate attacks through data-sharing among multiple missiles provides swarm capabilities, allowing for coordinated, high-precision strikes.

In contrast, hypersonic missiles, despite their extreme speeds, create unique phenomena such as plasma wakes and chemical reactions, which could make them easier to detect. Additionally, advanced sensors can track the light’s distinctive plumes and wavelengths that they leave behind.

Despite the simulation’s results, China may have multiple options to defeat the stealthy US LRASM, such as directed-energy weapons, counter-stealth technology and” shooting the archer” – destroying the launch aircraft or ships before they come into range.

In contrast to conventional weapon and missile systems, laser weapons can hit with virtually unlimited ammunition in an affordable manner. They are particularly effective at fending off cruise missile and drone attacks.

China has made significant advances in laser weapon technology, as demonstrated by the upgrade of its Type 071 amphibious ship, Shiming Shan, with an advanced laser weapon system, according to Asia Times in August 2024.

The laser system, whose details are unknown, is anticipated to strengthen defenses against small boat swarms and unmanned aircraft, with potential dazzler capabilities for blind sensors and seekers.

However, laser weapons are still in their early stages of development, and they have limitations like limited range, decreased effectiveness, and increased sensitivity to atmospheric conditions.

China could intercept both the missile and its launch vehicle using advanced detection technologies in addition to the LRASM and next-generation aircraft, making it possible to use stealthy cruise missiles.

In November of this year, Asia Times reported that simulations from the PLA National Defense University and the State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Game in Beijing demonstrated that China’s new counter-stealth radars could detect F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters from up to 180 kilometers.

The simulations, which modeled a US attack on Shanghai from Japan, highlighted vulnerabilities in the stealth shields of the F-22 and F-35, mainly when the F-35 operates in “beast mode”, making it detectable from 450 kilometers away. These findings come as F-22s are being deployed more frequently by the US in Japan, putting pressure on China to combat stealth threats.

A cost-effective radar technology system that uses signals from China’s BeiDou navigation satellite system to identify stealth aircraft is included in China’s investment in radar technology. This radar employs a unique algorithm to identify targets without emitting detectable signals, enhancing China’s anti-stealth capabilities.

Furthermore, Asia Times reported this month that China’s reveal of its new stealth aircraft, the J-36 and J-50, marks a significant leap in its military aviation capabilities.

The J-36, developed by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, features a tailless, delta-wing design to reduce radar signature and enhance stealth. Equipped with three engines, it emphasizes high-speed flight and long-range operations, making it suitable for air superiority and strike missions. The J-36’s design includes large weapon bays capable of carrying substantial payloads, indicating its role in air-to-air and air-to-surface combat.

On the other hand, the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation’s J-50 is a twin-engine stealth fighter designed for versatility in contested environments. Its cutting-edge air superiority and strike roles are matched by its advanced stealth technologies and avionics.

Furthermore, Asia Times mentioned in December 2024 that China could use hypersonic weapons from air, sea and land to attack US targets. The YJ-21 hypersonic anti-ship missile, fired from its Type 055 cruisers, is a formidable weapon against US surface combatants such as Ticonderoga-class cruisers and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.

While China’s simulation of an LRASM attack ended in the destruction of a destroyer, the scenario may be based on a one-time incident that excludes a potential sea attrition war.

China is the world’s largest shipbuilder, producing three-quarters of global shipbuilding orders in 2024. &nbsp, &nbsp, Thanks to military-civil fusion, China’s shipbuilding capacity also translates to naval power. China’s shipbuilding capacity has surged past that of the US, with the former’s shipbuilding capacity 232 times greater than the latter.

Furthermore, the US Department of Defense’s 2024 China Military Power Report states that the PLA Navy ( PLA-N) is numerically the world’s largest navy, with 370 ships and 140 major surface combatants.

With such formidable shipbuilding capacity, China can quickly construct new warships and repair damaged ones, guaranteeing numerical superiority over short-lived technological advantages, which has historically been the driving force behind naval combat.

Continue Reading

Marcos purge of Dutertes all about sidelining China – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

MANILA – Ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s assumption of power, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has purged the country’s most powerful pro-Beijing figures from the National Security Council ( NSC ).

In a final-hour executive order ( EO ), Marcos Jr. directed the removal of both Vice President Sara Duterte and former President Rodrigo Duterte from the nation’s top national security decision-making body. Additionally, Duterte-friendly political characters were removed from the protection agency.

However, Marcos Jr expanded the presence of important numbers from the Philippine Congress, which is headed by his aunt and right-hand person, House Speaker Martin Romualdez. The Malacaang Palace justified the decision because it “needs to further ensure that the NSC continues to be a resilient national security organization, capable of adapting to changing obstacles and opportunities both domestically and internationally.”

Crucially, the newly signed executive order also underscored the necessity of “ensur]ing ] that its council members uphold and protect national security and sovereignty, thereby fostering an environment conducive to effective governance and stability” .&nbsp,

The Dutertes and Marcoses have been engaged in heated and festering disagreements, with Vice President Sara Duterte actually publicly threatening the existence of the former if she were assassinated, while former President Duterte has insulted and yet agitated for a possible revolt against his democratically elected leader.

A possible geological transformation of the Philippine-US alliance is also anticipated as a more hawkish next Trump administration is expected to bolster allies in a sour New Cold War with China in the area.

Previous presidents have been honourable members of the NSC for the past 20 years, a nod to their encounter, earlier access to wealthy information, and leftover influence as significant public figures.

Institutional conversation with former president and institutional inclusion also led to a degree of consensus among the social elite on issues relating to national security. In addition, former vice president have served on the NSC’s Executive Committee, which is the main repository for joint responses to pressing national safety issues.

Previously, Vice President Sara Duterte, who had eyed the Department of National Defense before getting appointed as education secretary, also served as the vice-chair of the National Task Force to End Local Communist Armed Conflict (NTG-ELCAC ), the primary body in charge of addressing domestic insurgencies.

Sara Duterte was even forced to resign as secretary of education earlier this year, leaving the Dutertes with no access to all important decision-making systems.

In addition, the vice president is the subject of allegations of prosecution from both Marcos-friendly lawmakers and members of Congress, while former leader Duterte is being investigated for his contentious “drug war,” which claimed the lives of tens of thousands of drug users and sellers during his six-year career.

The Dutertes have responded by constantly threatening the state, holding anti-Marcos rallies, and also allegedly conspiring to oust Marcos Jr. through extraconstitutional means in the face of an existential problems.

The ex-president has explicitly called for” Citizens Power” against his son, harkening to the massive protests that dismissed the late Ferdinand Marcos Sr tyranny. He has just fallen far short of backing a military revolt against Marcos Jr.

” You didn’t go to the Supreme Court because it is a lengthy process. You can’t trust the Congress because ( Speaker Martin ) Romualdez is under Marcos ‘ helm”, Duterte said in a press conference in late-November amid escalating tensions with the administration.

The former president made the accusation that the president was “addicted to improper substances” and that military intervention might be the only solution to the impasse. ” How does the government defend the Constitution? By protecting a’ medicine druggie’ President? …If you want a restitution of dispute, there is no immediate remedy. It is only the army who is right it”, he added.

In addition, original generals and service members who were close to the Dutertes have voiced their disapproval and joined several civil society organizations to criticize the Marcos Jr. administration’s recently passed budget, which has racked up controversy.

There is now open dialogue about the creation of a “revolutionary state” in the wake of growing political conflicts and public dissatisfaction.

” If we don’t achieve, the’ Revolutionary Government ‘ will succeed”, past Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, a leading voice on matters of international policy and great governance, told the author in a new board discussion. &nbsp,

” As of right now, there are two causes. It’s a competition to demonstrate to the electorate whether certain things can be done in accordance with the constitution. Those for reverend state have given up now, they are gaining speed, there is no wish. Because they don’t think the current system may remain, these are the two major players in Philippine politics today.

The Marcos Jr. administration is now at the forefront of a raging tremendous power conflict in Asia. The coming next Trump administration, who is full of hawkish figures, could pressure the Philippines to host more sophisticated American weapons and immediately assist in deterring any possible war in nearby Taiwan.

When asked about the Philippines ‘ strategic position, Elbridge Colby, the incoming Undersecretary for Policy at the Pentagon and&nbsp, a key architect&nbsp, of Trump ‘s&nbsp, National Defense Strategy in 2018, &nbsp, told this author that&nbsp,” ]h ] alf-measures are dangerous]because ] hedging doesn’t make sense]when ] you are too important ]as a frontline ally to America]” in face of China’s growing assertiveness in adjacent waters.

Inbound Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, has even made it clear that the Philippines may be core to America’s local policy, particularly vis-à-vis containing China.

The Marcos Jr. leadership is streamlining its government and delicate decision-making bodies in the face of rising home opposition and political uncertainty. Beijing’s alleged influence on key Spanish authorities positions, if no access to personal information, is being deliberately curbed by the Dutertes ‘ removal from the NSC.

Former president Duterte publicly demanded in a letter to National Security Advisor Eduardo Ano last November that his daughter be a part of crucial federal safety meetings and, as a result, to provide the minutes of any policy discussions. Important figures in the Marcos Jr. leadership saw the removal of the Dutertes from the National Security Council as a major priority, and the Dutertes were seen as proxies of China by them.

When asked about Beijing’s possible use of the Philippines ‘ present political crisis, past Rear Admiral Rommel Jude Ong claimed,” If China properly divides a specific region, it can achieve victory [without paying any major price].”

” I’m very concerned about our domestic politics, and]accordingly ] interference]by China ]”, the former admiral added, emphasizing the Philippines ‘ centrality to the emerging US-China rivalry as well as Beijing’s potential forcible reunification with the self-ruling island of Taiwan.

“]China ] must neutralize the Philippines. Because it complicates]its Taiwan ] calculation. In military parlance, if]China’s ] main effort is Taiwan, then secondary effort is]focused on ] Japan and the Philippines. We are in the way of China’s plans on Taiwan. They must neutralize the Philippines politically and economically to ensure that we are no longer a factor,” he continued, referring to the Marcos Jr. administration’s decision to grant the US military more access to northern bases facing Taiwan.

” Whatever action we take, it disrupts their plans on Taiwan. The low-hanging fruit is to get someone friendly]back ] in charge of the Philippines. That’s why foreign interference [against the Philippines ] will be their main focus rather than kinetic or physical,” he continued.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian

Continue Reading

In defense of Yoon in South Korea – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Yoon Suk Yeol, the leader of South Korea, is at a crucial turning point. His death now rests with the Constitutional Court, which was defeated by congress on December 14. Yoon may be removed from office if six of the panel’s eight members vote to support the movement.

Yoon is also the subject of growing inquiries into rebellion allegations, which are a local laws offense that is punishable by life in prison or death. For the first time in its story, a judge issued an arrest warrant for a sitting president on New Year’s Eve in a serious turn of events.

Amid looming difficulties, but, pro-Yoon conservatives in South Korea remain strong. They contend that the mayor’s declaration of martial law was both appropriate and appropriate. For months, hundreds of thousands of Yoon’s followers have gathered in Seoul, denouncing the senate as illegal.

In an interview with Asia Times, Kang Yong-seok, an attorney and popular right-wing critic, offered his view on the latest improvements. A former legislator, Kang has been acoustic in shaping and solidifying the pro-Yoon station from the outside. His two YouTube programs boast over 900, 000 members.

On December 31 a judge granted Yoon’s arrest permit. What are your ideas?

The permit is evidently unconstitutional. Standing presidents are exempt from criminal prosecution under the South Korean Constitution, aside from rebellion and international aggression-inciting situations. The investigative body that issued the warrant, the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials ( CIO ), has no authority to rule in this case.

Thus, the CIO expanded its investigation into Yoon’s abuse of power by framing the insurrection claim as a natural transition of the case. For legal excess, if permitted, had position virtually no limits on the CIO’s power. Any analysis or proof gathered under an unlawful warrant would eventually be declared illegal.

Another important point is the CIO’s” determine shopping” to maintain a favorable decision. Prosecutors in South Korea frequently have prior knowledge of the permit courts ‘ decisions that will be decided on particular dates. The Seoul Central District Court is supposed to issue a warrant to the CIO, but when they discovered a prosecutor there was anxious to grant their legal expansion, they moved to the Western District Court, where they had a more accommodating determine.

Surprised by the judge it, the judge reinterpreted existing legal laws to issue a warrant for President Yoon. The parties responsible for issuing and approving this unlawful permit will be held accountable in due course.

Was Yoon’s December 3 military rules order justified?

Issuing military law falls squarely within the government’s power, and the correct methods have been followed in its application. What is really undermining the working of congress, however, is the majority-opposition Democratic Party’s actions—cutting crucial state money while increasing their own salaries, filing 22 impeachment motions against state officials, prosecutors, and Yoon’s allies, and passing bills formally with little oversight. Such shenanigans seem less like leadership and more like a protracted rant over Lee Jae-myung’s battle in the presidential election.

Does Yoon’s actions amount to rebellion?

The major legal argument will be whether President Yoon declared martial law to destroy, through power, position organs–in this case, the National Assembly or parliament.

To convict President Yoon of spearheading an insurrection, investigators must demonstrate that he had the “purpose” of overthrowing the National Assembly and that a “riot” occurred in the process. So far, there is no indication of either. The president’s decree was also immediately voided after the parliament decided to override it, further demonstrating a lack of intention.

It’s extremely difficult to obtain a conviction for insurrection. Lee Seok-ki, a former leftist lawmaker who was found guilty of plotting a rebellion to overthrow the South Korean government during a potential conflict with North Korea, was not found guilty of insurrection.

According to some testimony, Yoon has instructed the military to “neutralize” the National Assembly.

Yes, but those claims are merely testimonies collected during the investigation. The president once made up rumors about him using a secure phone, which was referred to as” smoking gun” evidence, to communicate with military officials during the decree. No such phone has surfaced, and the media has quietly dropped that narrative. Additionally, it’s incredibly unlikely that no one ever recorded their conversation while speaking directly to the president.

If you remember, in early December, Hong Jang-won, the first director of the National Intelligence Service, claimed that the president personally called him with a list of arrests during martial law. Yet, those claims have mysteriously vanished.

The special warfare commander who made a number of revelations on the Democratic Party’s YouTube channel for the opposition has also now stopped speaking. Those who had been so vocal before suddenly became tight-lipped once the official investigation began and arrests were made.

The media appears to be now grasping onto another allegedly smoking gun, a pocketbook that is allegedly owned by former head of defense intelligence Noh Sang-won. But what is a diary, if not a collection of personal musings, unverified and limited to one’s perspective?

Similar circumstances developed during former president Park Geun-hye’s impeachment when a diary kept by senior Blue House official Ahn Jong-bum was presented as crucial evidence of a civilian meddling in state affairs. Later, the courts rejected the diary and held it to be circumstantial at best. Frankly, I’d argue diaries don’t even qualify as credible circumstantial evidence.

Will the Constitutional Court uphold the impeachment?

I highly doubt it. Although we’d like to think that courts are largely independent of politics and public opinion, they are not, and the Constitutional Court is no exception. In recent weeks, Yoon’s approval ratings have increased, with more conservative supporters pushing to overturn his impeachment, a trend that judges are undoubtedly aware of.

More importantly, the charge of insurrection is far-fetched, and Yoon’s martial law declaration does not constitute an egregious violation of the Constitution–in other words, an impeachable offense.

The pro-Yoon rally is getting bigger by the day. Why?

One of the most important things is that conservative camp factions have put their differences aside to prevent Park Geun-hye from getting the same fate as President Yoon. Many people are strong and unyielding without engaging in combative combat.

Pastor Jeon Kwang-hoon’s role, of course, is central to forming a unified front in the streets. In the same way, conservative pundits and YouTubers have momentarily put their differences aside to work together for a greater cause.

Last weekend, for instance, over 500, 000 rallygoers gathered in Gwanghwamun Square to show their backing for Yoon. Legislators like Yoon Sang-hyun and Kim Min-jeon have taken notice of this sluggish movement, according to the ruling People’s Party.

This momentum should be maintaining, in my opinion.

Continue Reading

US, EU, Japan tighten research security as China dominance grows – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

The two nations signed a diplomatic science and technology partnership on December 13, 2024 in response to the escalating tensions between the United States and China. The occasion was billed as a “renewal” of a 45-year-old agreement to promote teamwork, but that may be misleading.

The revised contract significantly narrows the scope of the original contract, limits the topics that can be studied simultaneously, and eliminates partnership opportunities, and introduces a new debate resolution mechanism.

This change coincides with the growing international concern about the safety of study. Governments are concerned about global rivals gaining defense or commercial advantages or protection secrets through cross-border medical collaborations.

Within weeks of each other, the European Union, Canada, Japan, and the United States all unveiled sweeping innovative measures to shield sensitive studies from foreign meddling. However, there is a catch: Too many security could stifle international collaboration that propels technological progress.

As a policy analyst and professor of public affairs, I examine the impact of global cooperation in science and technology on both domestic and international policy. I have followed the US and China’s extremely close ties to science and technology. From a marriage of transfer of knowledge to one of real collaboration and competition.

Does nations tighten research security without undermining the pretty openness that drives science, as security provisions alter this previously open relationship?

two leaders sit at table in front of Chinese and American flags with press corps in front of them
The initial contract on participation in science and technology was signed by Chinese Premier Deng Xiaoping and American President Jimmy Carter in 1979. Dirck Halstead/Hulton Archive via Getty Images / The Talk

China’s rising changes the world panorama

The increase in Chinese medical publications represents a significant shift in international research. Less than 2 % of the study posts included in the Web of Science, a customized database of intellectual output, were written by Chinese authors in 1980.

By 2023, they had surpassed the United States and ended its 75-year tenure at the top, which had begun in 1948 when it surpassed the United Kingdom, in my opinion.

In 1980, China had no branded ideas. By 2022, Taiwanese firms led in US patents issued to international organizations, receiving 40, 000 inventions compared with fewer than 2, 000 for British firms. In the many innovative fields of science and engineering, China is at the world border, if not in the guide.

China and the United States have collaborated extensively in research since 2013. Chinese academics and students collaborated on exploration in the US.

Most American politicians who supported the filing of the 1979 bilateral agreement believed science would open up China. China has instead embraced technologies to strengthen its military and promote provincial dominance and global influence.

Science and technology leaders win battles and establishes prosperous markets. China’s growing power, backed by a state-controlled state, is shifting world power. China frequently keeps its researchers ‘ job technique and also stealing Western tech through hackers, forced engineering transfers, and industrial espionage, unlike open societies where research is open and shared.

Some institutions are now putting in place strict safety procedures because of these techniques.

Governments respond

China is said to have stolen sensitive technologies and analysis data to increase its security capabilities, according to the FBI. Under the Trump administration, the China Initiative aimed to eradicate criminals and spies.

The Biden administration continued to exert force. The National Science Foundation must demonstrate SECURE, a facility to assist colleges and small companies in helping the research group make security-informed choices, in accordance with the 2022 Chips and Science Act. To assess the success of its vision, I am collaborating with SURE.

Other developed countries are on call, also. Associate state are being advised by the European Union to increase safety measures. Japan joined the US in releasing comprehensive innovative measures to shield sensitive studies from unauthorized access and use.

As a defense against exploitation by China, Western countries are speaking out more frequently about modern sovereignty. Also, Asian countries are afraid of China’s purposes when it seeks to collaborate.

Australia has been particularly vocal about the danger posed by China’s fall, but some, too, have issued cautions. A stable international cooperation policy was published in the Netherlands. Sweden raised the alarm after a study revealed how spies had abused their institutions.

Canada established the Research Security Centre for Public Safety and, like the US, established geographically dispersed experts to give immediate aid to institutions and experts. For analysis partnerships involving delicate technologies, Canada today requires a mandatory risk assessment. In Australia and the UK, identical strategies are being used.

Germany’s 2023 rules establish adherence units and morality committees to monitor security-relevant research. They are charged with advising experts, settling issues, and weighing the legal and security implications of analysis projects. The boards place a lot of emphasis on putting in safeguards, limiting access to sensitive data, and weighing possible use.

Researchers are required to provide information on their affiliations, funding sources, both domestically and internationally, as well as potential conflicts of interest, according to Japan’s 2021 plan. A cross-ministerial R&amp, D control system is rolling out meetings and seminars to inform experts and corporations about emerging dangers and best practices for upholding research protection.

More than 206 studies security policy claims issued since 2022 are maintained in a database maintained by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

two women raise grasped hands and one holds a rolled up award
Emmanuelle Charpentier, left, from France, and Jennifer Doudna, from the U. S., shared the Nobel Prize in chemistry in 2020 for their mutual analysis. Miguel RiopaI/AFP via Getty Images / The Talk

Openness waning

The global collaboration that propels scientific progress may be hampered by the emphasis on security. As much as 25 % of all US medical reports result from global cooperation. Evidence demonstrates that studies with a higher impact is produced by international cooperation and flexibility. The most renowned researchers have international responsibilities.

Even more thoroughly, research depends on the free flow of ideas and ability across borders. As edges opened, technological progress accelerated after the Cold War. International cooperation have increased significantly, demonstrating the increasingly global nature of science, despite the country’s study result remaining stagnant in recent years.

Implementing these new needs without creating a culture of fear or loneliness will be the challenge for study institutions. Border reduction may slow down progress. Scientific flexibility has a certain degree of risk, but we may be entering the finish of a world, creative era in science.

Caroline Wagner is professor of common interests, The Ohio State University

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

Continue Reading

China’s homemade C919 jet takes to global skies – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

The first step in the development of China’s self-developed C919 narrow-body passenger jet, the first to compete with Boeing and Airbus for global industry, has been ordinary airlines between Shanghai and Hong Kong since the beginning of 2025. &nbsp,

Aircraft MU721, carrying 157 people, took off from Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport at 8: 21 am on January 1, marking the indigenously-assembled plane’s first international flight. In China, trip roads between Chinese places and Hong Kong are categorized as “international”.

Hong Kong becomes the ninth area on which China Eastern Airlines often operates C919 industrial planes and the first city outside the Chinese mainland with the beginning of the MU721 route.

The new company offers opportunities for users in other countries to learn more about the C919’s performance, according to Wang Yanan, the chief writer of the Beijing-based Aerospace Knowledge magazine, given Hong Kong’s significant international transportation hub.

The company plans to deploy the C919 for use in commercial flights between China and Southeast Asia in 2026, according to Yang Yang, deputy general manager of the state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China ( Comac )’s marketing center.

” We want to enhance the functional deployment of C919 aircraft in China,” Yang said,” to thoroughly examine any possible issues before extending to Southeast Asia.”

Comac showcased its ARJ21 and C919 at the Singapore Airshow next February. Indonesia’s TransNusa started using the ARJ21 in a Manado-Guangzhou journey last October and was apparently considering using the C919 in the future. &nbsp,

Comac said next November that its C929, a long-range 250-to-320-seat wide-body twin-jet aircraft, was still in its initial design phase. Chinese internet said the C919 aims to engage with France’s Airbus A320 and America’s Boeing 737 while the C929 may compete with the A330, A350 and 787.

The C919’s creation began in 2008 with the release of the first design in November 2015. The Civil Aviation Administration of China, the nation’s civil aviation authority, issued a flying license in September 2022 after making its first journey in May 2017.

Although praised as dessert, 40 % of the plane’s parts are imported. Its manufacturers include large American companies like Collins Aerospace, Honeywell, and Thales.

Its high-bypass turbofan engine, known as the leading edge aviation propulsion ( LEAP-1C), is made by CFM International, a 50-50 joint venture between America’s GE Aviation and France’s Safran Aircraft Engines.

It hasn’t been all obvious stars for the aircraft. A C919 plane operated by China Eastern Airlines had to reduce its voyage and land at Beijing Capital International Airport on February 1, 2023 when one of its engines failed to activate the put reverser, which is designed to decrease the aircraft. &nbsp,

In spite of this, the plane made its first corporate flight to Beijing in May 2023 from Shanghai. The Shanghai-Beijing way became a normal support in January 2024. &nbsp,

Foreign observers appear to have focused more on supply chain issues than health issues. &nbsp,

” Simply when its self-developed CJ1000A website is available for use in C919, China may no longer have to worry about the West’s systems ban”, Xiao Pang, a Henan-based blogger, says in an article.

He says the CJ1000A website has a force of 14.5 lots, exceeding that of LEAP-1C, and will be available for use in the C919 in 2025. He says, CJ2000, a more effective engine, will be used in the C929 some years later.

It’s unclear whether Comac will make a rush effort to replace the CJ1000A with the LEAP-1C because a single incident will destroy international customers ‘ faith in Chinese plane. &nbsp,

In 2016, Comac and Russia‘s United Aircraft Corporation ( UAC ) signed a memorandum of understanding for a program to develop a wide-body twin-jet airliner called CR929. &nbsp,

Previous studies stated that UAC would concentrate only on China’s markets while Comac would concentrate solely on domestic markets. &nbsp,

However, the task foundered on conflicts. According to Chinese experts, UAC requited to have a share of China’s domestic airplane areas. After the relationship ended in 2023, China renamed the CR929 as C929. &nbsp,

Individually, China had also tried to obtain aircraft engine tech from Ukraine.

Again in 2015, four Chinese firms, including Skyrizon Aircraft and Xinwei Technology, reportedly purchased a 56 % interest in Ukraine’s Motor Sich, which produced the D-18T website, a high-bypass turbofan with a force of 23 lots, for use in transport plane An-124 and An-225.

In 2016, Aerospace Industry Corporation of China ( AICC ) and Ukraine’s Antonov signed an agreement on a project to produce the An−225.

The four Chinese firms were sanctioned by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in February 2021 because they feared that Motor Sich’s aircraft engine systems may be transferred to China for military usage.

In November of the same year, Zelenskyy used military laws to nationalize the Zaporizhia-based Motor Sich, which is still under the protection of Russian army, after the Ukraine conflict broke out in February 2022.

A number of reports that claimed China is capable of replicating the D-18T were published online in China last November. &nbsp,

An Anhui-based writer&nbsp, said that&nbsp, with the D-18T, China’s military transport plane Y-20 does have its pulling power fit with the An-124 and also increase its range to 6, 000 kilometers. A Chongqing-based blogger said China can use the D-18T technology to improve the design of the CJ1000 website. &nbsp,

China Hangtie Group Co ( CAGC), a state-owed company, said in footage circulated on social media in May 2022 that it was going to dismantle the Antonov An-225 Mriya, the world’s largest and most powerful transport aircraft, which was shot down by Russian troops in April. According to reports, the plane’s six D-18T machines were in good condition. &nbsp,

Eventually, CAGC removed the video from the Internet. China’s Paper.cn said there was no proof that any Chinese company had obtained the An-225. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Yong Jian contributes to the Asia Times. He is a Chinese columnist who specializes in Chinese technologies, economy and politics. &nbsp,

Read: Taiwanese C919’s website faults in flight check

Continue Reading