China ‘blue force’ shooting at US in a naval metaverse – Asia Times

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China is rapidly creating a high-tech “blue pressure” to imitate US forces during combat training, utilizing cutting-edge electronic tools to strengthen its naval might and challenge US dominance in the Pacific.

This month, the US Naval War College published a report on China’s People’s Liberation Army-Navy’s ( PLAN ) development of a “blue force” for more realistic combat training.

According to the report, China has been using the online effort to improve its naval fight readiness since the mid-2010s, emulating the administrative strategies of American militaries.

According to a report from the US Naval War College, PLAN’s orange force offers manned and unmanned networks, with particular emphasis on virtual reality and electronic warfare capabilities. It says a synthetic opposition force ( OPFOR ) simulates potential real-world adversaries, including the US Navy.

According to the US Naval War College statement, PLAN’s orange force has grown increasingly sophisticated in recent years as a result of President Xi Jinping’s request for more reasonable military training, integrating uncrewed automobiles, simulated electric environments, and innovative training systems.

It points out that the initial orange force of the PLAN was makeshift and ready, but advancements in digital technology and training integration have made the exercises more realistic and effective.

The report claims that PLAN will be able to coach more effectively against the US and its allies, increase its combat readiness, and possible destroy the US’ naval dominance and deterrence in the region by creating a competent and reasonable orange force.

China has been integrating a number of cutting-edge digital technologies to create realistic combat environments, helping the PLA to bridge education gaps and get ready for upcoming issues.

In a May 2022 Foreign Military Studies Office ( FMSO ) article, Kevin McCauley says that the PLA is exploring the creation of a “battlefield metaverse” to enhance its training methods and combat capabilities.

According to McCauley, this metaverse aims to simulate future warfare environments using advanced technologies such as virtual reality, AI, quantum technologies, brain-computer interfaces and the Internet of Things ( IoT ).

He notes that the PLA believes this universe can give troops with interactive, realistic combat experiences, compensating for their lack of actual battle knowledge.

He claims that the metaverse makes it possible to test new strategies and technologies, including those that might apply to novel concept weapons like autonomous “blue armies” and weather weapons.

This approach, according to McCauley, is essential for preparing for and winning upcoming military conflicts because it provides a dynamic and rigorous training environment that the so-called” Battle Labs” of today cannot entirely replicate.

In addition to the high-intensity conflict cases against the US, including a conflict scenario over Taiwan, China has been conducting advanced models to test cutting-edge military strategies and strategies, according to Asia Times ‘ multiple accounts.

Researchers at North University of China conducted a combat sport modeling in May 2023 to demonstrate the effectiveness of China’s fast weapons against the USS Gerald Ford supercarrier and its girls. The modeling involved a three-wave assault using 24 fast missiles, which effectively sunk the provider and its five girls.

The model posited that the US fleet defied warnings and continued to cruise a South China Sea island owned by China. The fast missiles, with ranges of 2, 000 and 4, 000 kilometers, had great strike probabilities and were launched from different locations in mainland China. Due to the assumed lack of satellite targeting in a conflict scenario, the simulation highlighted the PLA’s reliance on sea-based surveillance.

In July 2023, Asia Times reported on China’s simulated total sea war scenario with the US, highlighting the PLAN’s challenges in a high-intensity conflict.

The simulation tested new naval weapons under a “Z-day” scenario involving nearly 50 Chinese destroyers facing attacks from a hypothetical “blue alliance” with advanced capabilities, including Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.

However, the total sea war simulation revealed significant Chinese vulnerabilities, such as reduced radar detection and compromised air defense capabilities.

Elsa Kania asserts in an April 2019 Jamestown Foundation article that the PLA faces challenges due to officer inexperience and command structure rigidity.

Kania claims that the transition from simulated to actual combat is challenging, even though the PLA’s National Defense University and other institutions are developing AI systems like” Prophet 1.0,” which have defeated human counterparts.

China argues that the PLA’s lack of combat experience can be made up for by complex simulations, but institutional obstacles like an underdeveloped non-commissioned officer (NCO ) corps could stifle the impact of these innovations, Kania contends.

Matt Tetreau mentions that NCOs shouldideally perform tactical-level tasks because they are essential to maintaining survivability and carrying out meaningful military missions in a January 2023 article for the Modern War Institute ( MWI ).

Tetreau points out that junior commissioned officers delegate these duties when competent and empowered NCOs are absent, frequently without the necessary expertise, authority, and intellectual capacity to do so.

He says that while the PLA has been modernizing rapidly, its efforts to professionalize its NCO corps face challenges, including low retention rates, inadequate training and socio-economic disparities.

Despite improvements, he claims that PLA NCOs lack the experience and leadership training of their Western counterparts, which may hinder their effectiveness.

However, Tetreau says that the PLA’s unique approach to NCO development, influenced by its socio-political context, may not align with Western military paradigms but could still meet China’s strategic goals.

In keeping with that, David Roza mentions in a May 2022 article for Task &amp, Purpose that the PLA has been implementing a targeted training program for NCOs since 2012 in an effort to develop its enlisted force into a more knowledgeable and educated body capable of operating modern military equipment.

Roza mentions that, unlike traditional NCOs who rise through the ranks, China’s “made-to-order” NCOs are intended to fill technical roles rather than leadership positions. He points out that while this approach may work in opposition to the US developing NCOs through years of service and experience, it may help to address the PLA’s recruitment and retention issues.

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China says new US tariffs ‘compounding its mistakes’ – Asia Times

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After the United States finalized its tariff increases on Chinese goods, including electric vehicles ( EVs ), batteries, solar panels, metals, and medical tools, Beijing has pledged to take measures to protect Chinese firms ‘ interests. &nbsp,

Following Section 301 tariff investigations, the Office of the United States Trade Representative ( USTR ) announced on September 13 that it will continue with its previously proposed tariff increases on imports from China. &nbsp,

From September 27 this month, the US will establish a 100 % tax on EVs and a 50 % tax on solar cell, syringes and needles imported from China. It will also impose a 25 % tariff on China’s facemasks, battery parts ( non-lithium-ion batteries ) and lithium-ion EV batteries, critical minerals, ship-to-shore cranes and steel and aluminum products.

The US will start imposing a 50 % tax on Chinese-made health gloves and electronics starting in 2025. From the beginning of 2026, the US will impose a 25 % tariff on China’s lithium-ion non-EV batteries, natural graphite and permanent magnets, a 50 % tariff on facemasks and also a 100 % tariff on medical gloves. &nbsp,

These tax increases, which cover imports worth US$ 18 billion from China, have mostly been unchanged from those that the Biden administration announced on May 14.

The USTR stated on September 13 that it made its decision after taking into account public feedback and the recommendations of the Interagency Section 301 commission and other acceptable advisory boards. &nbsp,

China has consistently made significant representations to the US side regarding Area 301 tariffs, and the WTO has already determined that these taxes are against the rules, according to a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Commerce. ” Instead of addressing this, the US has further increased tariffs on Chinese products, compounding its mistakes” .&nbsp,

The US Section 301 tariff increase, according to the spokesperson, is standard unilateralism and protectionism that drives up the costs of US imports while finally being borne by US businesses and consumers.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry released its 2024 Report on US compliance with the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) on September 12. The statement expressed grave concern about the US’s alleged misuse of Section 301 to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, claiming that the US “disrupts world business and provide chains”.

Additionally, it criticized the US for defaming the multilateral trading system, engaging in punitive trade bullying, imposing double standards on professional policies, and stifling the global commercial and supply chains by politicizating and using economic and trade issues by using a “tariff baton” under the guise of “de-risking.”

According to the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT ), Section 301 tariffs violate WTO guidelines and severely impair the trust of the relevant Chinese and US industries in long-term, stable cooperation.

Tech income

The Office of the USTR’s latest announcement said Chinese semiconductors that will be subject to a 50 % import tariff include diodes, transistors, photosensitive semiconductors, processors and controllers, integrated circuits ( memories, amplifiers and others ) and parts of integrated circuits and microassemblies. &nbsp,

But, CITIC Securities said the US price hikes will not have a big impact on China’s semiconductor industry. It said China’s export of semiconductors to the US amounted to 22.7 billion yuan ( US$ 3.2 billion ), or only about 1.65 % of China’s total exports of semiconductors of 13.78 trillion yuan in 2023. &nbsp,

Another analysts claimed that Taiwanese thermal product manufacturers are more affected by overcapacity than US tariff increases.

There has been hardly any immediate import of solar panels from China to the US in the past 12 years, according to Lu Jinbiao, deputy director of the expert council of the Beijing branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, who spoke to Yicai.com.

He claimed that since the US began an anti-dumping exploration into Chinese renewable batteries and units in October 2012, Chinese manufacturers have rerouted their production traces to Southeast Asian nations like Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Laos to avoid additional US tariffs.

In order to provide US providers more time to build their domestic production capacity, the Biden administration extended a tax deduction for renewable product producers in the four Southeast Asian nations by two years in June 2022. &nbsp,

After the deduction expired on June 6 of this year, US manufacturers of solar materials from the four nations are now required to pay an additional 14.25 % work. &nbsp,

Lu said some manufacturers of Taiwanese renewable energy might choose to relocate to the US to prevent additional tariffs while others might be in Southeast Asia. He claimed in an interview with Caixinglobal.com that the bigger issue in China’s thermal product sector is a price war brought on by overcapacity and fragile global demand. &nbsp,

He claimed that some Chinese thermal product manufacturers have since lost money as a result of the decline in silicon prices from 300,000 yuan per lot two years ago. He claimed that since the third quarter of last year, costs of solar chips, cell, and components have fallen by more than 50 %. &nbsp,

Longi Green Energy Technology, China’s thermal chip maker, reported a net loss of 5.2 billion yuan in the six month ended June 30 this year, compared with a net income of 9.2 billion yuan a month earlier. &nbsp,

A solar body manufacturer, TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology, recorded a net loss of 3 billion yuan in the first quarter, compared to a 4.5 billion yuan earnings in the same time of last year. &nbsp,

Read: Germany invests more in foreign companies than China.

Following Jeff Pao on X: &nbsp, @jeffpao3

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Precarity trap: Gig economy failing Asia’s youth – Asia Times

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Youth in the Asia-Pacific area are extremely concerned about the perilous work situation, with a growing number of young people finding themselves in temporary work without social security or long-term deals.

In Southeast Asia and the Pacific, over 28 % of children were working temporarily without financial security and social privileges in the document Global Employment Trends for Youth 2024 from the International Labor Organization.

This circumstance not just undermines the financial stability of people, but it also has significant effects on the state’s leads for long-term economic growth.

International changes, outlined in the ILO’s report, show that temporary jobs in the region has been rising since the early 2000s. Although adaptable, these jobs often provide long-term agreements, leaving younger workers without access to important benefits like medical and pensions.

In places like Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, the gig economy has more exacerbated the problem by creating accommodating but often unpredictable work. More than 44 % of Indonesian children are reportedly employed in the informal sector, frequently without arrangements, which makes it difficult for them to obtain social security or monetary stability.

The pressures that children are subject to also increase as a result of social expectations. In some Asian countries, steady employment is seen as a symbol of personal and social victory. This cognitive dissonance, but, causes emotional stress for some younger people who can only secure vulnerable jobs.

For instance, in South Korea and Japan, the societal pressure to find permanent jobs has increased in the number of mental health issues, including a noteworthy rise in youth suicides.

Technology, which was first seen as a gateway to new job prospects, has also played a part in expanding the uncertainty of these tasks.

Although the gig economy has opened up new employment opportunities for young people, particularly in the fields of logistics and transportation ( like Gojek and Grab drivers ), these positions come with significant financial hazard because of the absence of social security. Many of these employees rely on fluctuating desire, which results in unexpected income.

However, systems also holds the potential for revolutionary solutions. To improve transparency and offer better protection for gig workers, blockchain technology and intelligent contracts are being looked into.

These websites can make sure that employees are given timely payments and have access to fundamental social security benefits. In order to incorporate these safeguards into their job market frameworks, nations like Singapore are looking into collaborations with technology companies.

Precarious employment even poses obstacles to social mobility. Youth who are confined to temporary or casual jobs frequently lack access to training or advancement opportunities, which makes it challenging for them to change into more stable and well-paying positions.

This exacerbates intergenerational inequality, specifically for those in lower-income organizations. In order to address this, empowering and mentoring initiatives must be prioritized to enable youth to transition to industries like alternative energy and information technology with better job security.

Governments in the Asia-Pacific area want to improve interpersonal protections for younger workers, including expanding access to healthcare and pension plans for those in the informal sector, at the coverage level.

The establishment of more stable employment in the conventional business might be aided by tax opportunities for companies that offer long-term contracts to younger workers. Also, educational and vocational initiatives need to be more in tune with demands coming from the labor market in the future.

With a more integrated approach—combining open plan, technological innovation, and cultural change—the Asia-Pacific area can create a safer and more diverse labour market for children, paving the way for sustainable economic growth in the long term.

Setyo Budiantoro is a fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology ( MIT ), Nexus Strategist The Prakarsa, and IDEAS Global Program Fellow.

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Why ‘King Dollar’ could scoff at Fed rate cuts – Asia Times

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If and when anticipated Federal Reserve rate reduces fail to undermine the US dollars, the upside-down nature of the global economy could accomplish new variations.

Granted, there are as many reasons as there are for the global reserve currency to get plunging.

They include: the US federal loan topping US$ 35 trillion, slowing economic development, the Fed about to relax its 2022-2023 tightening period, powerful political fragmentation imperiling Washington’s credit score, and efforts to reduce the dollar’s omnipotence are gaining traction.

All eyes are on the activities by – and impulses from – Fed Chairman Jerome Powell‘s group, which is commonly expected to begin slashing prices at this year’s September 17-18 plan meeting.

Yet even though” King Dollar” is losing some brightness, it remains stubbornly strong. One great reason: the global framework.

Isabella Rosenberg, a money analyst at Goldman Sachs, claims that making up a dollar performance using just one variable — the direction of Fed policy in this instance — is not typically extremely effective. ” Plainly, the comparative landscape for FX matters little more”.

In response to that situation, many other major central banks around the world are easing, also, keeping the dollar’s attractiveness in relation to other currencies. They include the European Central Bank, the&nbsp, Bank of England, People’s Bank of China and possible the Bank of Korea in the months ahead.

Rosenberg points out that “if most central bankers are easing up, we can anticipate that that will lessen the impact of Fed easing on the money.” We also believe that other central banks would relieve plan more if the Fed gave them the opportunity to do so, despite the market’s pressure allowing for a quicker Fed tilt.

However, it’s not obvious that the ongoing strength of the dollar is good news for the global financial system in the year 2025. The economy’s “wrecking&nbsp, game” tendencies have been shaking up markets in recent years. It’s hoovered up enormous waves of international capital, disadvantaging emerging markets in specific. &nbsp,

Gary Ross, chief executive officer of Black Gold Investors LLC, has been warning since as far back as mid-2022 that “upward pressure on the money is a&nbsp, wrecking&nbsp, ball&nbsp, for assets”.

The dangers of this wrecking basketball dynamic are “particularly severe in emerging areas” because” they rely heavily on assets and have debt in money,” according to Tom Dunleavy, a partner at MV Capital.

Oil, as well as most trade and debt, are still priced in dollars. And, he says,” the denominator of everything is going up”.

Regardless of the dubious logic behind it, the more crowded a continued-dollar-strength trade becomes, the bigger the global fallout when depressed punters flee for the exits. &nbsp,

Washington’s political polarization could lead to unexpected risks that would restore the laws of financial gravity. That’s especially true as former US President Donald Trump campaigns for a second term.

The insurrection&nbsp, Trump fomented on&nbsp, January&nbsp, 6, 2021, dragged Washington’s credit rating down with it. When Fitch Ratings last year yanked away Washington’s AAA status, it cited the insurrection as a key variable.

As Fitch put it, the chaos on&nbsp, January&nbsp, 6, 2021, was a “reflection of the deterioration in governance” imperiling US finances. The US national debt is now twice the size of China’s gross domestic product, imperiling Washington’s last remaining AAA rating from Moody’s Investors Service.

The Tokyo piece of the puzzle is quite different, of course. Since 1999, the Bank of Japan has been working to normalize short-term rates, which have been near zero. On July 31, the BOJ raised rates to 0.25 %, the highest since 2008.

That sent the yen surging 8.5 % versus the dollar. However, since then, the team led by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has seen a lot of data points that could prevent it from tightening any more anytime soon.

One was the initial$ 6.5 trillion rout in global asset markets. Another: agitated Tokyo lawmakers concerned that the central bank is playing too much. Japanese wages are n’t surging in 2024 as hoped. &nbsp, Lawmakers also worry that deflation has n’t yet been officially defeated.

Recent “data confirm that Japan’s economy is not yet out of the woods”, says&nbsp, Stefan&nbsp, Angrick, economist at Moody’s Analytics. The second-quarter rebound, which has been negatively revised, comes in response to a number of subpar GDP reports that showed output dropping for the majority of the year.

And, Angrick adds,” the headwinds facing the economy are substantial. Before the end of the year, exports are struggling and unlikely to significantly improve. Household finances are stretched”.

Monthly cash earnings, Angrick notes,” saw a big jump this summer, but this was driven largely by stronger bonus payments, so we look for more evidence that wage growth will stick. Despite the disparate data, the BOJ seems determined to tighten monetary policy. At best, further rate hikes will be an added drag on growth. At worst, they could precipitate a broader downturn”.

The dollar would regain some of the ground lost against the yen in recent weeks if the BOJ stops halting rate increases for the moment.

Though contrarian for sure, Goldman Sachs is n’t a complete outlier. Count Daragh Maher, an economist at HSBC Securities, among those who think the dollar’s strength could prove impervious to Powell’s pivot toward easing. According to Maher, the “exceptionalism theme” that surrounds the US economy still “feels like it has got its arms around the dollar.”

It’s no coincidence that the dollar is at its highest levels since the dot-com economy of the late 1990s, according to Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at advisory firm RSM. The dollar has risen despite threats of a trade war, the pandemic, and the government funding standoffs, which we credit to the US’s renewed leadership in global affairs and the strength and innovation of its economy.

It’s also a coincidence that the major US trading partners included in the dollar index also happen to be the major international financial centers, according to Brusuelas. And it’s the rising demand for US long-term securities from those institutions that most accurately reflects the dollar’s long-term strength. Anyone can make an investment in a Treasury bond or a corporate bond of the highest caliber in the US.

That liquidity is important in a time when the global economy is in great uncertainty.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at advisory XTB, says that “without a doubt, the No 1 driver of the dollar is going to be relative interest rate differentials”. She notes that “any scaling back of bets on Fed rate cuts is likely to give the dollar some breathing room.”

The election and the Fed’s rate increase may be at odds with one another. On the one hand, US inflation continues to be slightly higher than the Fed might prefer.

Although the consumer price index increased by only 2.5 % year over year in August 2024, which is the lowest level since February 2021, inflation continues to be stubbornly high in housing and other important industries.

” Overall, inflation appears to have been successfully tamed but, with housing inflation still refusing to moderate as quickly as hoped, it has n’t been completely vanquished”, says Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.

Some Fed officials worry that Joe Biden’s Democrats might be aided by the proposed rate increases ahead of the November 5 election by using them as leverage. If traders begin looking at US finances in the run-up to the contest, the dollar could be affected by this.

While Vice President Kamala Harris ‘ popularity appears to have shifted, the growing US federal deficit is likely to be the subject of discussion regardless of who wins the White House, according to analysts at UBS in a recent report.

According to UBS,” Indeed,” the Congressional Budget Office recently predicted that US interest costs will overshadow defense spending this year. Fears about the US fiscal deficit’s size, in our opinion, will have a long-term impact on the US dollar. We anticipate the US dollar to maintain pressure, according to UBS.

Brooks, though, is less worried that politics will trump interest-rate differentials. ” I do n’t think the election is a key factor in the FX market yet”, she says. ” We’re at this precipice of monetary-policy change and that’s so much more important than politics for the market at the moment”.

For now, Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley’s head of US public policy research, argues that” King dollar does n’t really have any challengers”. China’s yuan, he argues, is n’t liquid enough to challenge the dollar, while cryptocurrencies are n’t ready for anything approaching global prime time.

Yet hubris is its own danger. That’s particularly so as Brazil, Russia, India, &nbsp, China&nbsp, and&nbsp, South&nbsp, Africa, the BRICS, lead efforts among Gulf region and&nbsp, Global&nbsp, South&nbsp, nations to dethrone the dollar. These de-dollarization efforts are making notable progress.

In Beijing, Xi Jinping’s “yuanization” push is gaining traction. In March, China’s currency hit a record high of 47 % of global payments by value. Last year, the yuan topped the yen as the currency with the fourth-largest share in international payments, according to financial messaging service&nbsp, SWIFT.

However, many people’s perceptions may not be as straightforward as they think about how those changes affect the dollar. Rumors of a predictable cause-and-effect decline in the dollar may prove to be exaggerated as the Fed finally pulls the trigger on rate cuts.

Follow William Pesek on X @WilliamPesek

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Australia can’t afford an AUKUS about-face – Asia Times

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Since the United States, Australia, and the United Kingdom made the announcement on September 15, 2021, that they would form a safety agreement known as AUKUS, three years have passed.

The US and the UK aided Australia in purchasing nuclear-propelled boats, which was a significant component of the package. The Morrison government’s controversial decision resulted in the government’s backing away from a$ 90 billion offer to purchase 12 boats from a French firm.

The AUKUS deal has recently drawn a lot of criticism from previous prime ministers Malcolm Turnbull and Paul Keating, former foreign minister Gareth Evans, and some in the internet.

Five key arguments against AUKUS have been the subject of criticism:

  • the alliance increases the chance of war with China.
  • Australia does n’t need nuclear-propulsion submarines
  • Our relatives in Southeast Asia are uncomfortable because of the deal.
  • it draws us back to the Anglosphere’s past, tightly tying us to the US and UK.
  • the forecast cost of the submarines, between A$ 268 ( US$ 180.2 billion ) and A$ 368 billion, is unconscionably high.

However, each of these statements is based on falsehoods. How’s why.

1. AUS makes conflict more likely.

Some reviewers argue that by acquiring nuclear-propulsion boats, Australia will help a more hostile tone by the US towards China, somewhat over Taiwan. And this makes war more probable.

However, this disproves the fact that the United States is aware of its own limitations and the dangers a controversial method might entail.

Some argue that AUKUS encourages a military-industrial advanced that supposedly makes Australia more of a&nbsp, dependent&nbsp, – more than&nbsp, independent&nbsp, – ally to the US. And this devalues Asian involvement in local or international security matters.

In this depressing view, Australia is expected to unquestionably help the US in a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. Additionally, it ignores the possibility that a war does not break out, with China holding out for Taiwan rather than seizing it.

As security analyst Peter Dean has observed, the controversy over Taiwan’s safety is” an argument without context”. It ignores the importance of Australia’s own geographical protection plan. Whether or not we’d help the US in a battle, Dean says, is the wrong topic in the incorrect discussion.

This assumption that AUKUS increases the likelihood of war also misinterprets the subtle nature of punishment, for which credible force is required.

However, realists frequently acknowledge that frailty invites invasion, even aggression. By giving would-be aggressors pause for thought and, if they do n’t, to impose such expenses on an opponent, they fail to accomplish their goals. This is the whole purpose of having a defense force.

Conflicts are greater now than they have been in years. And as tactical research specialist Brendan Taylor argues, there are at least four display items in Australia’s place: Korea, the East China Sea, the South China Sea and Taiwan.

In order to protect and promote the region’s growth, Australia has a vested interest in preserving peace and stability. As issues in recent years in Ukraine and the Middle East have shown that effective and warning skills have become extremely successful at achieving this.

So, the AUKUS deal should n’t be seen as provocative. Instead, it maintains powerful deterrence in the region. Our companions are aware of that.

A nuclear-powered strike underwater of the Virginia class is stationed at HMAS Stirling Naval Base in Western Australia in August 2023. &nbsp, Photo: Richard Wainwright / AAP via The Talk

2. Australia does n’t need nuclear-propulsion submarines

This story persists despite mounting information. Because its aging ship of diesel-electric engine submarines is now vulnerable to flying monitoring and strikes, Australia is interested in nuclear-propelled submarines.

Most of Earth is then covered by low-earth polar circle satellites. A determined attack can identify the wake of conventional underwater channels when they raise their snorkels to recharge their batteries thanks to the combination of armed drones, artificial intelligence, and design research.

Diesel-electric submarines are no longer so valuable where much transits are involved because cunning had been their sole advantage over area warships.

Without a single snort, Australia’s diesel-electric submarines cannot leave from any significant domestic or international port and set foot in Western Australia. And each snort poses a significant risk of detection. This leaves nuclear propulsion as the only practical choice for nations like Australia and the United States that have long oceans to travel through.

Operationally, nuclear-propulsion submarines have other considerable benefits. For one, they can travel faster ( about 20 knots on average instead of 6.5 knots ). The transit time from Fremantle to the Strait of Malacca, therefore, drops from 18 days to just six days.

A few subs can be kept in place with a few more that can move ( away from danger or to a new surveillance location ) at breathtaking speed because of the faster transit speeds.

The nuclear-propulsion submarines can also stay underwater “on station” ( at an assigned patrol location, say, the Malacca or Lombok straits ) for longer. A fleet should also be able to be deployed three times longer than Australia’s current submarines, remaining undetected without needing to recharge batteries.

https://twitter.com/RichHeydarian/status/1635537704296517633?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1635537704296517633|twgr^f32ec1e798f0ef776ce06e5c88631daa779bc59c|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://theconversation.com/australia-cant-afford-an-aukus-about-face-5-things-the-critics-are-getting-wrong-238219

3. The neighbors do n’t like it

Official reservations about AUKUS in public declarations are entirely understandable, given Indonesia’s “free and active” foreign policy.

Yet, the new enhanced defense pact signed by Australia and Indonesia on August 29 suggests that Indonesia, like the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam, is quite comfortable with Australia engaging in AUKUS and with its neighbors concurrently.

4. Regional engagement is undermined by the focus on the Anglosphere.

Due to its historical and cultural ties to the United Kingdom and its geographic position in the Asia-Pacific, Australia was once referred to as a” torn country.”

However, Australia is still at a point where it can successfully balance its physical place in the world with its Anglosphere roots. Arguably, it’s a key factor making it attractive for foreign students and migrants, luring them away from UK and US alternatives.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s diplomatic accomplishments also refute the notion that AUKUS’s support for our neighbors diminishes. Such claims were made fun of at recent summits with leaders from the Pacific Islands Forum and the Association of South East Asian Nations.

Even France, the most slighted out of the AUKUS deal, has gotten over it because Australia matters to its Indo-Pacific claims.

Indeed, Labor’s election victory in 2022 allowed for a convenient reset in relations. This is best illustrated by the recently updated trilateral “FRANZ” agreement between France, Australia, and New Zealand.

5. The cost is unconscionable

A cost of up to A$ 368 billion over 30 years sounds like a lot. However, due to the Air Force and Army having to make cuts, this money is unlikely to be fully utilized because other efficiencies may arise and because defense is using its existing budget to pay for the submarines.

Significant budget increases are anticipated to occur for a number of years, with only incremental increases occurring.

To be sure, the government must grapple with competing demands for missiles, aircraft, drones and other fighting systems. As retired lieutenant general Peter Leahy pointed out, military readiness requires additional funds in the event of uncertainty.

Ironically enough, however, increased reliance on US-sourced technology is key to enabling a more self-reliant defense posture.

Australia takes pride in maintaining a high level of interoperability with the US military as part of its commitment to providing a top-notch technological edge. When it comes to military equipment and uniformed personnel, this is meant to make up for its lack of quantity.

Under AUKUS, the US is transferring the know-how to build, maintain and operate the nuclear-powered submarines in Australia. This relies on reliable access to the most cutting-edge US military technology, which builds on more than 80 years of intergovernmental cooperation in intelligence matters.

If the US proves unwilling or unable to participate as actively in the neighborhood as we might like in the future, these advanced systems are crucial.

Balancing interests

What Rory Medcalf, the ANU National Security College head, refers to as” the Australian way of war and peace” as recently as it has become known. This signifies that Australia is respectfully but steadfastly asserting its rights, safeguarding its interests, and inspiring other nations to follow.

In weighing up Australia’s interests, we must look beyond the critiques. There is no need for another submarine “outside” at this time.

The need to maintain a course is highlighted by the geopolitical context and recent developments in technology.

The Australian National University’s Strategic and Defense Studies Centre is led by John Blaxland, a professor.

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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East better than West for pro-natalist engineering – Asia Times

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This is the next article in a two-part series.

The first section of this essay argued that any pro-natalist coverage may be cost-effective in using public funds to recover lost work efficiency, including scale, that large families of the past centuries had captured. &nbsp,

Additionally, it noted that no pro-natalist policy has attempted to do this, and suggested that this loss may be mainly responsible for the lack of success that pro-natalist laws have had in the past.

Some administrative arrangements, out of the various ones that might recapture the lost gains from a focus on child rearing, appear to face greater social resistance than others.

There is no maximum length for orphanage-like settings where large numbers of children are raised by child-raising experts to whom the kids are not medically related. These organizations can raise children with greater scale economies than even the largest community.

But, homes have always and everyday been considered superior to people as child-raising organizations. Only when the radioactive and the prolonged relatives have failed have they been used. &nbsp,

Through a variety of organizations, including orphans themselves, culture has long encouraged the adoption of children from orphans into families.

In consequence, proponents of the use of orphanage-like organizations to adopt pro-natalist scheme, which probably would require paying women to keep children to be raised by such institutions, may experience significant opposition and event disparagement as proponents of “baby mills” or “kiddie farms.”

The massive biological home is a time-tested administrative arrangement for raising children in contrast to encourage and finance a limited number of large families where children are raised by their biological parents may experience no such resistance rooted in classic culture.

Nevertheless, there are limitations on the scales that a natural family is properly catch. About 12 is the largest frequently observed family size in the US as soon as the 1960s, which is consistent with the childbirth-risk-reducing considerations of bearing a baby every 27 to 33 months, starting at age 18 and continuing until age 45.

If a woman gives birth once every 30 months from age 20 to age 44 – i. e., every 2.5. years for 25 years – then she will bear ten children. That appears to be the ideal target for a pro-natalist policy that seeks to resurrect the benefits of specialization in child-rearing by reviving the large biological family.

However, to raise ten children in a one-child family with both parents working outside the home, with the exception of five years where the wife stays at home to raise an infant, both the father/husband and the mother/wife must stay at home and concentrate on raising children for the majority of their adult lives. &nbsp,

In the middle of that couple’s child-raising career, when they are raising five, six or seven children at once, the assistance of a maid/nanny or two might also be required. One or both members of a professional child-raising couple aged 62 or older, no longer raising children of their own, might provide such assistance.

It would be necessary to work with young married couples to begin raising children as soon as the woman graduates from secondary school, beginning no later than when the woman is 20 years old. &nbsp,

This would involve marketing to secondary school students about the career options available to them and assisting secondary school students interested in meeting and dating other students of the opposite gender, getting married soon after graduating from secondary school, and receiving a marriage-contingent offer of employment as specialized child-raisers from age 20 to 65, presumably with an old-age pension thereafter.

However, starting to raise children at age 20 need not preclude post-secondary education for either member of a specialized child-raising couple. During the first three-and-a-half years before the birth of the second child, there would be ample time for substantial post-secondary schooling, which might continue, with less time devoted to it, until the birth of the third child about 2.5 years later.

Furthermore, this post-secondary education would ideally be well-rounded schooling that specialized child-raisers might enjoy acquiring. The humanities and social sciences are useful in raising children in addition to math and science.

Additional scale economies of scale that are not directly related to particular specialized child-raising families could be achieved by cooperative purchasing between these families of various goods and services, and perhaps even by a wise minimum of co-location. &nbsp,

However, an excess of co-location, in which whole towns or neighborhoods are inhabited chiefly by specialized child-raising families, seems undesirable. It is best to stay away from a society where specialized and generalized child-rearing households are segregated from one another. &nbsp,

The children of one-child families and the children of ten-child families should not first encounter one another as adults, they should attend school together, play together, befriend one another and visit one another’s homes.

The best responses to three crucial but complex questions, which may vary from country to country, do not fall under the purview of this essay. &nbsp,

One is how best to assess and control the quality of state-funded specialized child-raising, which presumably involves monitoring both the process and its young-adult products. &nbsp,

The second question is whether a state-funded program that uses married couples who are experts in child rearing should be run by the state directly or through private contractors, subject to state-specific requirements and state monitoring.

The third is how to cope with non-performance. What should a specialized child-rearing couple do if they divorce, break up, or simply stop having children? What should be done with the children when such deterrence fails? Termination of employment and loss of pension may help to deter such non-performance.

In such circumstances, it might be possible to have specialized child-raisers older than 62 who are no longer raising their own children.

In the long run, some novel “middle way” between specialized child-raising families and orphanage-like institutions might prove useful. &nbsp,

Something like a British boarding school, students at which spend holidays ( as many as 22 weeks a year ) with their biological parents, but in which children would be enrolled from infancy, comes to mind as a way of reviving two- or three-child families.

However, to test such novel institutions would take at least two decades, until the quality of the young adults produced is observable. East Asia cannot afford to wait that long before beginning to reverse its fertility decline. &nbsp,

It might be best to experiment with novel ways to raise children in a mix of small and non-family institutions while putting together a plan to fund numerous specialized child-raising families.

So what proportion of the workforce needs to specialize in child-raising? To replace the population, given the low levels of child mortality now observed in all but the poorest countries, requires a total fertility rate ( TFR ) of 2.1 live births per woman per lifetime. &nbsp,

A nation would also have a stable population if it had a long-stable TFR of 2 and no changes in mortality or the average age of childbearing and no net immigration or emigration.

Imagine a nation with 20 to 44-year-old age cohorts, half of whom were women, and a life expectancy of 80 years for both males and females, and a population that was entirely made up of specialized child-rearing couples that bore and raised ten children every 2.5 years starting in the woman’s 20th year and who had no other paid employment from the age of 20 to 62. &nbsp,

The women of such couples would bear 1.31 % ( ]2.1/2.0] x]1/80th] ) of the population every year. Since 2.5 women are needed to bear one baby per year safely, the specialized child-raising women would constitute 3.28 % ( 2.5 x 1.32 % ) of the population. They plus their husbands, constituting 6.56 % ( 3.28 % x 2 ) of the population, would be employed solely in child-raising. &nbsp,

If the 20-to-64-year-old workforce were 45/80ths of the population, then 11.67 % of the workforce would be engaged in specialized child-raising ( including post-secondary education early in their careers and helping young specialized child-raisers late in their careers ). &nbsp,

Because mortality increases above 64 years and below 20 years, the 20-to-64-year-old workforce would be more than 45/80ths of the population, so less than 11.67 % of the workforce– perhaps roughly 10 % of the 20-to-64-year-old workforce – would be engaged in specialized child-raising. &nbsp, Conversely, about 90 % of the workforce would never bear or raise a child.

In the case of a country with a long-declining and now far-below-replacement TFR, the analysis would be far more complex, even with the assumptions of no migration and no change in mortality or age of child-bearing.

Nevertheless, for a country with TFR of 1.05– which is roughly what China’s TFR is now thought to be – to double its TFR to the population-replacing TFR of 2.1 by specialized child-raising, the proportion of the 20-to-64-year-old workforce that would have to work as full-time child-raisers might be roughly 5 %, i. e., half the roughly 10 % needed to supply a stable population wholly by such means. &nbsp,

For such a country to raise its TFR by two-thirds, to 1.75, by means of specialized child-raising, might require something like 3.5 % of its 20-to-64-year-old workforce to work as full-time child-raisers.

These flimsy guesstimates give an idea of how much labor is required, despite their simplified counterfactual assumptions. &nbsp, Demographers with access to detailed national data could quickly provide far more precise country-specific estimates.

Child-raising is a relatively labor-intensive activity, using less capital than most work in rich or even middle-income countries. In other words, the share of GDP needed by state-funded specialized two-parent child-raising will be lower than the share of the workforce needed to do so in all but the poorest nations. ( Only in a few poor nations has fertility significantly decreased below replacement. )

However, for such a pro-natalist program to attain a target TFR would take 25 years, assuming no unforeseen changes in relevant variables, if only 1/25 of the eventually-desired number of specialized child-raising couples were hired every year. &nbsp,

If the program were front-loaded to shorten the amount of time needed to accomplish the goal, some of the labor would later have to be diverted from child-raising to other endeavors to avoid a period of above-target fertility.

For example, if a government wants to increase its country’s TFR to a specified target level in 12.5 years rather than 25 years, and then to keep the TFR at that level, then it will need to hire for the first 12.5 years twice as many child-raising couples as it eventually wants, then change the work of half of them, after 12.5 years, from professional parenting to something different, such as teaching school. After a rise in fertility, teachers might be in short supply.

For at least three reasons, East Asia, which has been the source of a variety of innovations that the West has found useful for millennia, seems far more likely than the West to develop effective pro-natalist policy.

First, East Asia has lower and faster-falling national TFRs than the West, so it urgently needs a pro-natalist policy. East Asians cannot afford to wait for the West to develop a successful pro-natalist policy before reversing it, as they have done for various Western innovations in terms of technology and institutional innovations over the past two centuries.

Second, even using the cost-reducing strategies suggested in this essay, reverse the decline in fertility to prevent future economic catastrophe and demographic oblivion would require significant sacrifice at the present, and it may prove impossible for nations with formally democratic governments. Contrary to the West, East Asia includes several nations with democratically unelected governments.

Third, because most East Asian nations are more ethnically and culturally homogeneous than most Western nations right now, are less susceptible to cultural, ideological, and ethnic divisions, making it nearly impossible for many Western nations to develop a state-funded program to reverse the decline in fertility by reinvigorating specialized child-raising.

To administer, legislate or even advocate such a program in the United States would be a nightmare. Some Americans would demand that any such program perpetuate existing cultural and ethnic divisions, while others would demand that it ignore them, and finally, others would demand that it work to reduce such divisions, such as by introducing a program aimed at reducing traditional Western culture and reducing white people. &nbsp, Compromise would be impossible, the culture wars among groups that loathe one another preclude it.

This problem cannot be avoided by awarding contracts for specialized child-raising to the least-cost private-sector bidders that meet specified quality requirements. Absent statutory constraints, the least-cost bidders would be bidders subsidized by some private organization or billionaire with an ideological, cultural or ethnic agenda – i. e., to increase the proportion of the population that is white ( or non-white ), or Muslim ( or Evangelic Christian, or Catholic ) or raised “woke” ( or traditionally ). &nbsp,

However, domestic cultural enemies would have impossible compromises if laws were passed to impose restrictions on such subsidies.

However, if East Asia develops a successful pro-natalist policy, the West will have a far greater chance of adopting it than it would be to adopt one, both because it will already be clear that it can reverse the fertility decline, and because it will also have contributed to the West becoming more and more poor, smaller, and weaker in comparison to East Asia.

The US central government may be too divided by different cultures and ethnic groups to copy another nation’s successful pro-natalist policy. &nbsp,

However, the US also has 50 state governments, any of which could copy such a policy. If the US central government does not censor their actions, the governments of states with culturally less diverse populations could imitate successful East Asian pro-natalist policies.

Although the US is currently too suffocated by diversity to lead the non-African world in the survival-critical task of halting the decline in fertility, parts of the US may not yet be too diverse to follow leadership offered by East Asian nations that are more homogeneous than the US.

Ichabod is a former US diplomat.

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Japan’s faith in US eroded by impolitic election rhetoric – Asia Times

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In voices and techniques that have upset America’s most crucial Pacific ally, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, and J D Vance have all voiced passionate opposition to Japan’s proposed merger of US Steel. The underlying meaning of the condition is best expressed in the next quotations.

Joe Biden:” It is crucial that we keep strong American steel firms that are led by American steel employees.” US Steel has been a renowned American steel company for more than a century. It is important that it continues to be a domestically owned and operated business.

Kamala Harris:” US Steel is an ancient American business. And it is crucial for our country to keep strong British metal businesses. And I could n’t agree more with President Biden…”

Donald Trump:” I would stop it. I think it’s a awful thing. When Japan buys US Steel, I would stop it quickly. Definitely”.

J D Vance:” Today, a critical part of America’s security industrial base was auctioned off to immigrants for cash” .&nbsp,

Sherrod Brown, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee:” As you examine this offer, I urge you to… study Nippon’s ties to the Chinese authorities and the harm this consolidation poses to British regional and economic security”.

This political, if not misinformed, communication has played well on the campaign road, with some critics suggesting the chest-beating is nothing more than campaigning. However, that is not how the Chinese view things.

Shigeru Ishiba, a former Chinese defence minister, said:” I find what the United States is saying very disconcerting. Making such statements or behavior may undermine the trust of its friends…

The US has just started imposing threats and agreements on its allies, which is true both with Japan and NATO. I’m not sure if that approach is actually good. The Chinese authorities should discuss these issues with seriousness, sincerity, and naturally.

We all believed that the US has a market-oriented business and that Japan and the US are great friends, and this takeover is not just about the merger of US Steel; it will also have implications for that.

Ishiba is currently topping polls in the race for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s ( LDP ) presidency. One more significant candidate out of nine is Kono. In October, anyone who wins that vote on September 27 will almost certainly be elected as Japan’s future prime minister.

Speaking in English at the Foreign Correspondents ‘ Club of Japan (FCCJ) last week, Kono said that while the US-Japan security relationship is fundamental to Japan’s defense, when the US becomes” volatile “and” we do n’t know what’s going on “in Washington, Japan needs the” deeper assurance “of” layered defense.”

In Kono’s perceive, that includes working with various friends in Asia-Pacific and Europe, a financially stronger private security market, and long-range weapons, drones and nuclear-powered submarines with non-nuclear torpedoes and missiles waiting quietly in the choke points between China and the Pacific Ocean.

Kono supports speech with China, but argues that Japan needs to collaborate with other countries to put strain on China and avert it in the global south.

Ishiba thinks that” the US-Japan empire is very important, but that does not mean trying to meet all the requirements of the US,” he told the FCCJ.” It is not in Japan’s curiosity to increase its military abilities just to satisfy the US.

But, he also said” The United States never coming to the security of Ukraine because it is not a NATO member is really disturbing. Additionally, the absence of a global security system here in East Asia is incredibly problematic. I’ll do everything in my power to create one.

When Ishiba and Lai Ching-te, the president of Taiwan, met in Taipei in August and discussed how stronger a deterrent to Chinese aggression is needed for peace in the Taiwan Strait. Noting that” Today’s Ukraine might be tomorrow’s East Asia,” &nbsp, he added that the most pressing need now is to prevent that from happening.

Minister of State for Economic Security&nbsp, Sanae Takaichi, a disciple of former and now deceased prime minister Shinzo Abe, is the most hawkish of the LDP’s candidates.

Three years ago, she campaigned for the LDP’s leadership and said,” We need to prepare for a new war.” Our satellites could be attacked. Undersea cables might become severed. We should concentrate our resources on constructing our country’s defenses.

This time around, Takaichi advocates removing a buoy from China’s disputed Senkaku Islands, promoting a “free and open Indo-Pacific,” and discussing the revision of Japan’s” Three Non-Nuclear Principles” ( one of the country’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles ).

If elected, Takaichi also promises to travel to the Yasukuni Shrine, a move that will undoubtedly enrage China and both Koreas. The International Military Tribune for the Far East, which found Japan’s war dead, as well as those who were detained there after World War II, are buried there.

On August 15, the 79th anniversary of World War II’s end in the Pacific, Takaichi, Minoru Kihara, Katsunobu Kato, Takayuki Kobayashi, former chief cabinet secretary, and former mister of the environment Shinjiro Koizumi, made a visit to the Yasukuni Shrine.

Eight of the nine candidates in this month’s election – Takaichi, Ishiba, Kato, Kobayashi, Koizumi, Kono, LDP Secretary General Toshimitsu Motegi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi – have emphasized the revision of Japan’s” peace constitution “in their campaign presentations.

The ninth, Minister for Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa, does n’t really need to. She has been a key figure in the efforts of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to strengthen security ties with other nations in the Indo-Pacific region, including serving as the LDP’s headquarters for the Promotion of Revision of the Constitution.

For the third Japan-India 2 2 Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting in August, Kamikawa and Defense Minister Kihara traveled to New Delhi. In early September, she took part in the 2 2 meeting in Australia, where the two sides reaffirmed their commitment to Australia and Japan’s Special Strategic Partnership.

Japan’s Three Non-Nuclear Principles are: not possessing, not producing and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons into Japanese territory”. Peace constitution “refers to Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan, entitled” Renunciation of War”, which reads:

The Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes as they sincerely aspire to an international peace based on justice and order.

” In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The state’s right to belligerency will not be acknowledged.

Article 9 – which, like the rest of Japan’s constitution, was drafted by American occupation officials after WWII – has been only nominally honored with the build-up of ground, maritime and air Self-Defense Forces.

However, a growing number of people’s elected representatives now believe that recognition of the importance that those forces play in safeguarding the country’s interests.

The Yomiuri Shimbun, one of Japan’s top daily newspapers, conducted an annual poll in May that revealed 53 % of people were in favor of Article 9’s second paragraph, which is the highest percentage ever and ten percentage points ahead of those who claimed it was not necessary.

75 % of respondents saw no reason to revise the first paragraph, indicating that most Japanese are facing the reality of international relations, not turning pro-war.

Overall, 63 % were in favor of revising the constitution versus 35 % against. Some people would like to have the constitution revised, while others would prefer to have it independently drafted by the Japanese themselves.

The Japanese are on the verge of establishing themselves as a normal nation that is more self-reliant in protecting its national interests as a result of rising threats from China and North Korea and impolitic statements from US politicians.

On September 12, Kobayashi declared,” I will make Japan a leading country in the world and a truly autonomous country that does not go every way following the trends of other countries,” on the first day of active campaigning.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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Anduril poised to fill America’s missile supply gap – Asia Times

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In the face of numerous challenges in the US and the allied security manufacturing base for quite munitions, National defense contractor Anduril Industries plans to replenish thoroughly depleted US weapon stockpiles with its fresh low-cost Barracuda cruise missile.

This month, Anduril unveiled the Barracuda family of Autonomous Air Vehicles ( AAVs ), including the Barracuda-100, Barracuda-250 and Barracuda-500 – all of which are designed for affordable, hyper-scale production.

Anduril mentions that these air-breathing, software-defined inconsequential AAVs offer increasing size, variety and cargo capacity and are compatible with different loads and work mechanisms.

The company says the Barracuda-M configuration provides a cost-effective, adaptable cruise missile capability, addressing the US and its allies ‘ pressing need for more producible and upgradeable precision-guided munitions ( PGM ).

The Barracuda home of AAVs functions advanced automatic behaviors, given and air-breathing engines, enabling higher speeds, agility and extended ranges. Anduril says the Barracuda is designed for fast, low-cost council and requires fewer equipment and parts, making it 30 % cheaper than competition.

It makes use of components from the supply chain to support supply chain resilience, and notes that its compact design makes quick adjustments to changing threats and new technologies. Additionally, the Barracuda home supports a variety of vision sets and can be used on a variety of platforms, including surface-to-aircraft and fifth-generation fighters.

With Barracuda, Anduril says it aims to restore the US army with these intelligent, adaptable and mass-producible weapons, combining modern technology with cutting-edge equipment to improve air dominance and strike capabilities.

At a time when the US defense industry base struggles to meet demand, Anduril’s Barracuda AAVs could provide flexible, affordable, and versatile PGMs to address some of America’s production and supply chain issues.

Seth Jones notes that the US faces a number of significant challenges in producing PGMs in a report from January 2023 for the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ).

Jones says lead times are a significant bottleneck, with certain missiles, such as the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile ( JASSM) and Tomahawk Block V, taking up to two years to produce.

He mentions that due to workforce and supply chain constraints, the US defense industry base struggles to maintain surge capacity.

Jones points out that despite businesses needing stable contracts and more consistent demand signals to invest in production, inconsistent orders from the US Department of Defense ( DOD ) only make the issue worse.

He adds that the US defense industry is further hampered by single-source dependencies for crucial components like rocket motors and missile energy. He mentions that the global supply chain, particularly reliance on China for rare-earth metals, also poses vulnerabilities.

Jones says that regulatory hurdles, such as outdated Foreign Military Sales ( FMS ) and International Traffic in Arms Regulations ( ITAR ), retard arms sales to critical allies, impacting the defense industry’s ability to ramp up production efficiently.

Further, in a February 2023 CSIS report, Jones says that the DOD’s munitions stockpiles would likely be insufficient in a major regional conflict, including a war with China over Taiwan.

According to Jones, simulations revealed that the US would run out of crucial long-range PGMs in a few weeks, which poses a significant challenge in continuing a protracted conflict with China.

He makes the point that China has outpaced the US by five to six times in terms of buying expensive weapons, making this shortfall even more so.

Jones points out that the defense industry base has long faced problems, including inconsistent demand signals and supply chain vulnerabilities, which prevent it from being able to replenish stockpiles quickly.

He claims that with China’s expanding military might and the rising threat of conflict in the Taiwan Strait, the need to deal with these issues has grown. The author makes it clear that deterrence depends on a strong industrial base that is capable of producing enough munitions and weapons systems.

In a report for the Center for a New American Security ( CNAS ) in June 2023, Stacie Pettyjohn and Hannah Dennis claim that the main problem with the US defense industrial base is a combination of a lack of manufacturing capacity and fragile supply chains.

These issues, according to Pettyjohn and Dennis, are made worse by the industry’s reliance on complex and frequently unstable supply chains for crucial components, such as rocket motors and microelectronics. They add that the US defense sector, which cut production during the post-Cold War era, is now battling to increase production quickly.

To address these problems, they mention that the DOD has identified the need for stability and capacity expansion, which they argue can be achieved through multi-year procurement ( MYP ) and large-lot procurement ( LLP ) programs.

Pettyjohn and Dennis claim that these initiatives are intended to boost production capacity, provide consistent demand signals to the US defense sector, and increase the ability to increase output when necessary.

In addition to boosting US domestic production inefficiencies, Anduril’s Barracuda will need to leverage the capabilities of key allies like Japan and South Korea.

Wilson Beaver and Jim Fein suggest that the US should look into the possibility of working with partner countries to increase America’s munitions production capacity in a report from February 2024 for The Heritage Foundation, a conservative US think tank.

In some allied nations, including South Korea and Japan, Beaver and Fein mention that there is significant manufacturing capacity and robust defense industries. They recommend that the US make the most of this capability and look into ways that allies ‘ foreign companies can increase the production of US-made defense equipment like munitions.

They point out that the supply of munitions is so inadequate that the production of munitions by partners and allies, including Germany, the UK, Japan and South Korea, would not negatively affect US manufacturing.

However, a US Congressional Research Service ( CRS ) report from June 2021 mentions the difficulties of coordinating the industrial bases of different countries to meet US military standards, which frequently causes synchronization of production and increases the risk of operational delays.

The CRS report makes it clear that the complexity of working with foreign supply chains can increase potential delays. It mentions that US PGMs frequently contain ingredients from foreign countries, which pose risks to supply chain integrity and allow for quick replenishment of stockpiles.

In a March 2023 War on the Rocks article, Vasabjit Banerjee and Benjamin Tkach discuss significant challenges that the US’s co-production of weapons with allies poses, which they claim are primarily caused by supply chain bottlenecks and export regulations.

Banerjee and Tkach point out that international collaboration is hampered by export laws meant to safeguard US intellectual property and maintain technological advantages. According to them, these regulations frequently lead to bureaucratic strains that can stymie co-production licensing agreements.

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The Middle East crisis that wasn’t – Asia Times

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Subscribe now&nbsp, for access at a special price of only$ 99/year.

The Middle East crisis that was n’t one.

According to David P. Goldman, Iran has no retaliated against Israel for the murder of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh because of China’s and Russia’s pressure on them and its inability to fight Israel. Israel continues to struggle with military staff training and labor.

Brandenburg’s Election and the Draghi Report

Diego Faßnacht reports that the impending Brandenburg election is a result of social shifts seen in other Northeast German states. The Draghi Report, on the other hand, has strong recommendations for considerable Union investments but is opposed by European financial leaders who oppose the growing EU debt.

Does Ukraine hold the line or start symbolic offensives?

According to James Davis, Ukraine may wait until spring to make for a 2025 battle or engage in metaphorical operations to keep Western support while Russian forces have stabilized the scenario in Kursk. Increase challenges remain as Ukraine seeks long-range arms.

Japan is concerned about US Steel by American officials.

According to Scott Foster, all US national and vice-presidential individuals have voiced opposition to Nippon Steel’s proposed merger of US Steel, straining relations with Japan as political leaders voice worry about the effects on the US-Japan empire.

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Falling in love, literally, with ChatGPT – Asia Times

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If you’re a paid ChatGPT subscriber, you might have noticed that the large-scale artificial intelligence ( AI ) language model has recently started to sound more human when you interact with it in audio.

That’s because the organization behind the speech model-cum-chatbot, OpenAI, is already running a minimal captain of a new feature known as “advanced tone mode”.

This new setting, according to OpenAI, “features more organic, real-time conversations that pick up on and listen with nonverbal and emotional cues.” In the upcoming months, it intends to give all paid ChatGPT subscribers access to the superior words setting.

The voice in superior voice mode sounds remarkably individual. There are n’t the odd deficiencies we are used to with voice assistants, rather, it seems to take breath like a man did. It also avoids interruption, provides appropriate feeling cues, and appears to conclude the patient’s emotional state from voice signals.

However, OpenAI expressed issue that users may listen to the bot as if it were humans by developing an intimate relationship with it in addition to making ChatGPT seem more people.

This is not a fictional. For instance, a social media influencer named Lisa Li has coded ChatGPT to get her “boyfriend”. But why simply do some people have close connections with chatbots?

The development of friendship

Humans are extraordinary at making friends and being intimate. This is an expansion of how primates bodily groom one another to form relationships that can be used during conflict.

But our ancestors even evolved a amazing capacity to “groom” one another orally. This led to an evolutionary period where the language facilities in our brains expanded and what we did with language expanded.

More complicated language made social more complex with larger networks of friends, family, and allies. Additionally, it made our hippocampus’ cultural networks bigger.

Along with cultural habits, speech developed. Dialogue is generally what leads to friendship or friendship, in the long run.

Research conducted in the 1990s discovered that verbal back-and-forth, especially when it involves disclosing private information, creates an intimate impression that our conversation partner is a part of us.

So, I’m not surprised that attempts to replicate this process of “escalating self-disclosure” &nbsp, between humans and chatbots&nbsp, result in humans feeling&nbsp, intimate with the chatbots.

And that’s just with words insight. When the key visual experience of discussion – voice – gets involved, the impact is amplified. Even voice-based assistants that do n’t sound human, such as Siri and Alexa, still get an avalanche of marriage proposals.

The reading was on the test whiteboard

If OpenAI were to ask me how to maintain clients do n’t form social interactions with ChatGPT, I may have a few simple tips.

First, do n’t give it a voice. Second, do n’t make it capable of holding up one end of an apparent conversation. Basically do n’t make the product you made.

The solution is so effective because it does a fantastic job of imitating the characteristics we use to create social bonds.

Close-up of GPT-4o displayed on a smartphone screen.
OpenAI may have known the dangers of creating a human-like bot. Image: QubixStudio / Shutterstock via The Talk

Since the first ai flickered on almost 60 years earlier, the writing was on the lab chalkboard. Desktops have been regarded as social players for at least 30 years. The ChatGPT’s sophisticated voice mode is just the latest impressive addition, hardly a “game changer,” as the tech industry would yell blatantly claim.

Users of the online friend platform Replika AI were quickly cut off from the most advanced features of their chatbots, revealing that users not only shape relationships with chatbots but also produce very near personal feelings.

Replika was less developed than ChatGPT’s recent release. But the interactions had a quality that surprised users into developing remarkably strong bonds.

The threats are true

Some people will benefit greatly from this new era of ai because they are in desperate need of a company that listens nonjudgmental. They may experience less depressed and isolated. These kinds of advantages of technology are unquestionable.

However, ChatGPT’s sophisticated voice mode’s potential risks are also very real.

Any time spent conversing with a scammer is wasted on other people’s social media accounts. And people who use engineering a lot of the day are most vulnerable to reshaping relationships with other people.

Chatting with machines can even contaminate existing ties people have with other people, according to OpenAI. They does come to expect their partners or friends to act like pleasant, obedient, respectful bots.

These larger-scale consequences of technology will gain more weight. On the plus side, they might reveal a ton about how society operates.

Rob Brooks is the head educational for UNSW’s Grand Challenges Program in Sydney and ascientia professor of biological biodiversity.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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