China-Philippines retreat, for now, from Sabina Shoal row – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

MANILA – The Philippines and China have successfully resurrected a simmer over the Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea, evoking at least a momentary de-escalation in maritime conflicts that some fear could lead to an armed conflict.

The National Maritime Council, the newly established joint work pressure overseeing the Philippines ‘ South China Sea plan, &nbsp, announced&nbsp, on September 15 that the Philippine Coast Guard premier BRP Teresa Magbanua was leaving the bay area after a tough five-month-long mission.

China reportedly withdrew its coast guard and military forces from the area of the disputed property feature in the Spratly group of islands soon after.

According to Philippine officials, China had parked more than 200 vessels – a combined force composed of Chinese Coast Guard (CCC ) and Chinese maritime militia ( CMM) – in the Spratlys, with as many as 71 deployed close to the Sabina Shoal.

The Philippine government’s swift response to criticism of the vessel’s withdrawal was seen as a de facto” surrender” and echoed China’s claim that its pressure tactics had “outsmarted” the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration.

Even though the shift occurred shortly after the most recent Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) conference between major Philippine and Taiwanese diplomats in Beijing, the Spanish state has insisted that it was not a part of any agreement with China.

Major Spanish officials have emphasized their devotion to a continued and expanded existence in the Sabina Shoal region, including through regular deployments of naval assets and police warships.

The BRP Teresa Magbanua, according to NMC chairman Lucas Bersamin, “against enormous odds” when confronted with” an invasion of China’s larger fleet of intruders.” He said the ship would continue its goal as “defenders of our independence” in the area after being resupplied, repaired and its staff recharged.

The Sabina Shoal ( “Escoda” to Filipinos and” Xianbin Jiao” to Chinese ) is situated just 75 nautical miles ( 140 kilometers ) from Philippine shores, well its Exclusive Economic Zone ( EEZ ) extending from the island of Palawan.

China views the disputed function as part of its extensive exploration of nearly the entire South China Sea and its functions as defined in its nine-dash range map, while the Philippines claims that the low-tide ascent is a part of its western table.

China’s expansive claims were dismissed as incompatible with international law in an arbitration case brought by Manila in 2016 that was heard at The Hague under the auspices of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ( UNCLOS). Beijing disregarded the ultimate decision, which lacked an enforcement mechanism, and boycotted the arbitration proceedings.

Both sides were worried about one another’s motives, which contributed to the most recent upheaval. In light of concerns that China may have been secretly engaging in island-building actions in the disputed place, Manila immediately deployed its most valuable coast guard warship to Sabina Shoal.

The Philippines was earlier up in arms when reports emerged of China’s possible restoration of another low-tide altitude, known as Sandy Cay, situated in the vicinity of the Philippine-occupied Thitu Island in the Spratlys. The Philippine Navy&nbsp, deployed a warship&nbsp, to the place to inform China against any major movements.

For its part, China’s People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) recently conducted exercises near the Sabina Shoal. Beijing was reportedly alarmed by the PCG’s rollout of its flagship ship, which was believed to be worried that the Philippines was about to try to fortify the disputed Second Thomas Shoal.

By grounding the BRP Sierra Madre ship there since the late 1990s, the Philippines has maintained a de facto military presence over the strategically located have ( also claimed by China ).

The Southeast Asian nation properly fortified the deteriorating base through subsequent transfers of building materials despite ongoing harassment from Chinese forces, including numerous collisions and even injuries sustained by Asian troops.

China increased its reputation and harassment strategies in the Sabina Shoal to stop a situation like this, despite the Philippines ‘ repeated denials of plans to establish a “forward base” there.

Beijing remains unconvinced and quickly reminded its Southeast Asian rival of its preponderance of force after deploying CCG 5901, the world’s largest coast guard ship known as” The Monster” ,&nbsp, to shadow&nbsp, and intimidate the BRP Teresa Magbanua.

Last month, Chinese vessels blocked Spanish supplies operations, thus forcing the latter to update basic requirements for its forces in the area&nbsp, via plane.

During a routine resupply mission to nearby islands in the Spratlys, Chinese vessels engaged in dangerous maneuvers against two PCG Multi-Role Response Vessels ( BRP Cape Engao and BRP Bagacay ) during a dangerous maneuver.

The PCG boats were also damaged by the collisions, but the CCG maintained that it was legitimately responding to the protests by Filipino rivals who “illegally entered” the region without consent and “deliberately” collided with its boats.

Shortly after, Chinese troops went so far as apparently ramming into the BRPTeresa Magbanua, raising worries of a strong military fight.

The US immediately offered its Filipino mutual defense treaty allies, including possible joint inspections and supplies missions in the contested areas, for the weight of the condition.

Major Filipino leaders have however indicated that they would prefer to rely on their own resources, despite some who have boldly called for a international anti-China empire as well as a revision of the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty to lower the bar for British military action.

” We did not withdraw, and this did not happen during the most recent BCM. People might think we gave in, but in reality, we did n’t”, Admiral Alexander Lopez, the chief official of the Marcos supervision on the South China Sea, said during a recent press conference.

He continued,” We stood our ground at the conference in Beijing, and our department of foreign affairs assured us that our existence would continue at the reef, so it’s not a withdrawal.”

” The mayor’s mandate is to maintain our reputation in Escoda Shoal”, he added during the current press conference at the Malacañang Palace. ” When we say presence, strategic presence, not just physical appearance … I just want to make clear that our existence is not limited to sending a single ship”, the commander added.

” Even if&nbsp, Teresa Magbanua&nbsp, left, it did not diminish our presence in the area because we have other methods to track”, the Spanish captain insisted, citing the Philippines ‘ implementation of patrol aircraft and security features to monitor developments in the contested place.

He also made it clear that the PCG has already set up a new vessel to take the place of the departing flagship in order to establish a Spanish proper presence in the area. We have not lost anything, according to ford Jay Tarriela of the PCG in his own press conference this year.

” ]Sabina ] Shoal, no matter how many instances we intend to go there, we will be able to patrol and deploy our vessel”, he added.

Top Philippine officials ‘ vehement protestations came in response to charges made by local opponents and islamists who have taken issue with the Marcos Jr. management of stumbling against China.

However, the Philippines has yet to fully utilize its full range of capabilities, according to prominent Filipino managers like original Vice Admiral Rommel June Ong.

We communicate as though we have used up all of our toolkits, he once said to the publisher. He added that the Philippines has the opportunity to conduct joint patrols with allies and, if necessary, to ask for immediate American help if the situation escalates to a dangerous level.

” The Sabina Shoal standoff is not an isolated challenge. We are confronting]a more comprehensive ] direct challenge across the whole South China Sea…]but ] we]also] have a full range of options to respond”, he added, likening the sea showdown with China as more marathon than sprint.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

Continue Reading

‘End of the world’ option remains deep out of the money – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Subscribe now&nbsp, for access at a special price of only$ 99/year.

The” End of the world” option is still very expensive.

According to David P. Goldman, gold’s new increase past$ 2,600 is due to its ability to defy TIPS as a hedge against unanticipated inflation. This is caused by geopolitical risks. Despite concerns about longer conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East, stock’s advanced has remained constant.

The EU’s continuous move away from free trade

Diego Faßnacht explains that the European Union’s trade policy is shifting towards protectionism, highlighted by planned tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles ( EVs ), an approach that could lead to inflation, higher production costs, and diminished global competitiveness.

Putin warns against a wider conflict with NATO.

According to James Davis, Ukraine’s defense in the region is seriously harmed by the possible drop of Pokrovsk. Also, the debate over Ukraine’s use of long-range American missiles against Soviet territory remains unsettled.

Vocal Abe protégé Takaichi moves up in Japan surveys

According to Scott Foster, Sanae Takaichi is vying to be the Liberal Democratic Party’s ( LDP )’s ) next leader and possibly the next prime minister. Takaichi has soared in polls as a result of her hardline approach and as a disciple of Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister.

Continue Reading

Asia left to wonder what’s spooking the Fed – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia, Finance

With the support of international investors, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell must feel relieved. Businesses took his bigger-than-expected 50 basis-point easing walk very much in foot.

Had his group been less confrontational, easing only 0.25 percentage points, the speculation about the next move may have started quickly.

Here in Asia, though, economists ca n’t help but wonder what Fed officials know that global markets do n’t. The Fed’s downshift to a range of 4.75 %-5 %, after all, was of a magnitude usually reserved for a recession or crisis.

” This’ deluxe’ cut marks a move towards populist economic plan by the Fed”, says economist David Roche, chairman of Global Strategy. ” It was wanted by the industry, where, of course, the pain threshold is zero. It was dictated by the internet. But it is not needed by the]US] market, which is well-balanced”.

Roche magic, however, “is the judgement especially wise because it places far too much attention on the Fed’s career goals over prices goals.” It raises questions about what the Fed has in common with the labor market that we do n’t. And it suggests that the Fed maintains the US economy’s vitality by keeping the parity level of interest rates below the desired level.

Mark Zandi, chief analyst at Moody’s Analytics, notes that Wednesday’s reduce “feels extremely intense, unless you know the market is going to begin to diminish more substantially”.

Economist Ryan Sweet at Oxford Economics magic if the Fed is admitting, successfully, it should’ve eased sooner.

He claims that” the Fed” does n’t like to acknowledge policy errors, but some of the decision to make a bigger cut in September is likely to fall flat because the central bank found itself behind the curve at one meeting. Thus, the decision from September is a “preemptive strike” to improve the likelihood that the central bank will be able to make a smooth landing.

The Fed’s prices calculus will cause a lot of financial reports to surface in Asia. As Powell’s team admitted in its post-easing statement, inflation remains” somewhat elevated” above the Fed’s 2 % comfort zone ( the Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) rose at a 2.5 % annualized rate in July ).

If one of the Fed’s 12 voting members did n’t disagree, the Fed’s claim that “risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance” might have more weight.

Fed committee member Michelle Bowman wanted a quarter-point split. The Fed governor’s first dissention since 2005 highlights the disinterestedness of Team Powell’s decision to go 50 basis points while ensuring worldwide markets that everything is alright at home.

In Asia, focus then turns to Tokyo. On Thursday, the Bank of Japan began a two-day plan meeting. In late July, it hiked rates to the highest since 2008 — 0.25 %. The BOJ is expected to keep rates unchanged this week as financial data suggest slow economic growth is on the horizon.

The sport is parsing the BOJ’s vocabulary for any suggestions of further tightening techniques later this month, according to economists. The yen could rocket skyrocket if the smallest taste of another touching of the brakes is present.

The currency’s almost 6 % jump since July 31 is fueling real paranoia in Eastern markets. Symptoms that BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda may increase rates once more this year could lead to another loosening of the “yen-carry trade,” causing asset markets to collapse everyday.

Twenty-five times of holding costs at zero turned Japan into the world’s major bank state. For decades, funding resources &nbsp, borrowed cheaply&nbsp, in yen to bet on higher-yielding resources around the globe.

As such, immediate japanese moves slam markets almost anywhere. It became one of the nation’s most packed trades, one truly prone to correction.

The path of Fed plan is an extremely important varying as China’s market, Asia’s biggest, slows. &nbsp, That’s especially so with an obvious gap opening up at Fed office.

” My guess is they’re split”, past Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan tells CNBC. Some people around the table have the impression that they’re a little later, that they want to start strong, and that they would choose not to spend the slide chasing the business. There’ll be another that, from a threat management point of view, just want to be more careful”.

There’s a chance, nevertheless, that the Powell Fed is putting magnification over reasonable economic policy.

According to Seema Shah, chief world strategist at Principal Asset Management,” for the Fed,” it comes down to deciding whether to reinvigorate inflation pressures by cutting by 50 basis points or by threatening a recession by cutting by only 25 basis points. Having now been criticized for responding to the inflation issue very slowly, the Fed will likely be afraid of being reactive, more than strategic, to the risk of slowdown”.

However, the Powell Fed has skepticism abounds as a result of its past behavior of bowing to political factors.

Powell was chosen to lead the Fed, according to former US President Donald Trump. But, Powell soon found himself in the midst of a flurry of Trump requests that the Fed reverse its policy of easing. Trump also mulled firing Powell, an exceptional risk to the Fed’s freedom.

In 2019, the Powell Fed began cutting rates, pumping fresh liquidity into an economy that did n’t need it. That left the US even more prone to post-Covid-era prices.

The Powell Fed erred again in 2021, arguing that inflation was” transitory” as it delayed rate hikes. The most intense Fed tightening period since the mid-1990s was caused by the need to play catch up with the fighting rising prices in 2022.

The US federal debt topped US$ 35 trillion in the time, and Washington’s social unrest is raising concerns about government funding. In preparation for the November 5 vote, the Fed’s hinge is undoubtedly advantageous.

However, events at the Fed rates may affect the plan outlook. Marshall comes from a neighborhood banking history, according to Brad DeLong, an economical scholar at the University of California at Berkeley. As for, the opposition “deserves a raised eye” as Team Powell went great Wednesday.

” Since 1993 there have been just six dissents from the chairman’s place by the six different Fed Governors, compared to 71 from the rotating five voting Fed bank president”, Long information. The convention advises that governors vote with the chair to prevent the possibility that a bank president who is legally a private banker casts a vote that affects what has come to be the core policy of the government.

What’s more, DeLong points out,” there has been only one hawkish Governor dissent – until now. Governors only “in extremis” when they believe the committee’s main concern is n’t taking employment risks seriously enough, according to the convention.

That’s why Governor Bowman, a Trump appointee, is “distinctly odd”, DeLong says. ” Those holding small-scale community-banker seats on the Board of Governors are rarely the interest-rate hawk fringe outliers on the FOMC. Repayment risk is a result of community bankers ‘ real-world experience, which means that their institution’s typical portfolio suffers greatly in a recession. And I certainly did not see her as the inflation-hawk fringe of the FOMC”.

Asian policymakers are left to wonder what the Powell Fed is seeing instead of what they are. ” Despite surveys showing that the consensus is expecting a soft landing, rates markets are pricing in a full-blown recession”, says Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management.

The Bank of Indonesia’s surprise rate cut this week served as a reminder of how Asian economies are in charge of Fed policymaking.

The seven-day reverse repurchase rate was cut by 25 basis points to 6 % on Wednesday during Asia time, the first easing change since early 2021, even before the BI was aware of what the Fed might do.

The Federal Funds Rate direction is becoming clearer, and the rupiah is becoming comparatively stable and even stronger, according to BI Governor Perry Warjiyo.

The question is whether the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) economies can expect similar trends in global markets. ” This will increase the attraction of ASEAN”, Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, an analyst at Aletheia Capital, tells Bloomberg. In this rate-cutting environment, Indonesia in particular and ASEAN in general stand out. Due to high dividends, consumer resurgence, and high commodity prices, the area is a haven. In the 2007 and 2009 rate cuts, ASEAN was an outperformer among emerging market regions”.

For traders in the best financial centers around the world to determine where the Fed is headed will take some time. The hope, of course, is that talk of a US soft landing bears out.

The higher prints at the start of the year increasingly appear to be residual seasonality rather than reacceleration, according to Goldman Sachs economists in a note. A shift in the focus on labor market risks will therefore be a key theme of the meeting.

Asks Jason Draho, head of asset allocation at UBS Financial Services:” When will investors think the&nbsp, Fed&nbsp, is ahead of the curve and proactively exercising its’ put’? Because investors have been implicitly asking that question and hoping for this outcome all summer long, this is the most crucial question.

Before Asia is aware of the Fed’s rate-lowering intentions, it will undoubtedly take some time. However, policymakers are anxious and gearing up for bolder moves as a result of the Fed’s assertive cut this week.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Continue Reading

Deciphering Putin’s muted response to the Kursk incursion – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

The Ukrainians ‘ daring move to invade the Kursk area, led by Kiev, surprised Russia by a sizeable margin. But probably its most amazing feature is Vladimir Putin’s answer.

It might have been expected that Putin may react furiously to the first invasion of Russia’s country since the Second World War, given the Soviet government’s repeated assertions that losing its war with Ukraine would lead to the West breaking up Russia.

Considering the Russian president’s efforts to establish similarities between the Soviet Union’s struggle against Nazi Germany and Russia’s war against Ukraine, he likewise missed an obvious opportunity to brand Ukraine’s August 6 wonder unpleasant as the modern-day relative to Operation Barbarossa. In a damaging attack in June 1941, Nazi forces stormed across the northern borders of the Soviet Union.

Putin has played down the presence of Russian troops on Russian soil by taking a month to make his first public statement on the incident, calling on world in Russia to make sacrifices for the country and calling persuasive alarm bells.

Putin’s information to the Soviet people is that everything is under control and there is no need to worry, more than describing Ukraine’s deeds as the start of a novel and risky section in the battle.

Over the past month, the Russian armed forces have undoubtedly not been idle. As Russian troops fight in the Donbas region of Ukraine, the city of Pokrovsk, a transport hub with strategic significance, continue to attack and even increase, while Russian forces in that region are moving forward in their efforts to seize the city.

All of these responses, however, are effectively business as usual for the way that Russia has been fighting its war on Ukraine. However, this tactic does not result in a victory for Russia.

Moscow still has no control over the Ukrainian territories it annexed and claims as its own, and Putin’s” special military operation” that was supposed to win over all of Ukraine in just three days is well into its third year.

Russia’s style of war is very wasteful of human life. Since Russia’s massive invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to the UK Ministry of Defense, it has lost more than 600,000 lives to its armed forces.

Russia’s military struggles to find enough men to fill those who have been lost despite regularly raising the pay and benefits offered to anyone who wants to enlist.

Combat injuries

Russian troops are reportedly being recalled to the front lines after recovering from serious combat wounds, according to reports. Soldiers walking into battle are depicted in these images as using crutches. Young conscripts who are completing their year of compulsory military service are many of the soldiers trying to stop and reverse the progress of the Ukrainian forces in Kursk.

Russia’s reliance on inexperienced troops with scant training to defend its border with Ukraine is an indication that its forces are stretched thin.

YouTube video

]embedded content]

Kursk offensive by Ukrainian troops.

And there are now labor shortages in Russia outside of the war zones. Russia’s factories are open all day and pay high wages to attract the best workers, but the lack of skilled workers is putting strain on both the military and civilian economies.

This results in a shortage of bus drivers, shop and factory workers who serve the daily needs of communities, as well as threats to Russia’s ability to produce weapons to use against Ukraine.

The Kremlin could have seen the Ukrainian invasion as an emergency and a chance to use previously untapped resources from Russian society to fill these shoals in the war effort.

The Ukrainians ‘ occupation of Russian territory might have served as a justification for a fresh round of military mobilization to bolster the army’s ranks. Additionally, it might have been appropriate to pass new legislation to permit the state to direct labor resources toward the areas of the economy in greatest need.

Governments have used this kind of measure during conflicts. For instance, during the second world war, women in Britain were required to register for conscription and could be assigned to either factories or the fields.

Putin’s big opportunity?

So why did Putin miss out on such a rare opportunity to both enhance his chosen narrative about the character and significance of Russia’s war in Ukraine and to entice more members of Russian society to bear its costs?

The Levada Center, Russia’s only remaining independent polling body, has a recent interview with sociologist Alexei Levinson, who may have provided the answer. In response to Russia’s war in Ukraine, Levinson described Russian society as emotionally numb.

Most Russians, in Levinson’s opinion, prefer to ignore the conflict and continue living their lives as if it were n’t occurring.

Putin may have chosen to downplay the invasion of Ukraine into Russia’s territory because he feared that Russian society would not respond to a wider plea for support.

A leader of the nation’s country would have been deeply humiliating, perhaps even more humiliating than an invasion by foreign forces would have been.

Whatever Putin himself really thinks, he appears to realize that the majority of his fellow citizens disagree with his claim that the conflict in Ukraine is an existential conflict for Russia.

Although few Russians are publicly and actively opposed to the war, in part due to the danger of fines and imprisonment, Levinson’s research suggests that their support is passive and might not be able to be made to make significant personal sacrifices.

Putin might find it harder to isolate a large portion of Russian society from the effects of this war the longer it lasts.

Jennifer Mathers is senior lecturer in international politics, Aberystwyth University

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Continue Reading

Ukrainians increasingly willing to cede land for peace: survey – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

The Russian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is trying his best to stir up the interactions of the Russia-Ukraine battle. He recently underwent a significant government change that included Dmytro Kuleba, his foreign secretary, and no fewer than nine others.

Announcing the alterations, Zelensky said he wanted his state to be “more effective” in pressing for assistance from its European allies.

These government changes were made as Ukraine continued to advance with its rude in Russia’s Kursk region. According to Zellensky, having some Belarusian territory did give Kiev more leverage for upcoming territorial trade negotiations with Russia.

Even though Zelensky’s gamble has received more criticism as Ukraine’s standing in the Donbass in the south of the nation has deteriorated, seeing Ukrainian soldiers turn the tables on Russia has certainly given Ukrainians a moral boost.

Ukrainian needed this. As the conflict has endured and its prices mounted, morale and public health have suffered.

We have been monitoring Russian attitude for years. In collaboration with the Kiev International Institute for Sociology (KIIS), we conducted a phone public opinion poll of 2,200 adults in Ukraine’s government-controlled places in June and July 2024. This was to following up on a study from October 2022.

We should handle war polls with caution. However, the results of our study suggest that people are concerned about fellow Ukrainian ‘ fear of war. It even suggests that there is growing, if afraid, support for discussions and regional agreements.

Start to sacrifice

Ukrainian attitudes toward territorial agreements have even started to change, but only slightly. Most people have opposed giving up territory since 2014, but KIIS’s personal regular federal survey provides evidence of growing recognition, then shared by one-third of Ukrainians, that regional concessions may be required.

In June-July 2024 we repeated a question we asked in October 2022 on regional agreements, shown in the number below. ” All decisions about what to do during this recent Russian brutality have significant, but distinct, costs. Which of the following four options, knowing this, if the Ukrainian government make at this time?

The biggest change was this: in 2022, 71 % of respondents supported the proposition to” continue opposing Russian aggression until all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, is liberated”, but in 2024, support for that option had dropped to 51 %.

Only 11 % of people in 2022 concurred that” we are attempting to reach an immediate ceasefire on both sides with conditions and initiating intense negotiations.” In 2024, that promote had increased to 31 %.

Russians are more willing to accept the territory-concession agreement today than they were in 2022. &nbsp, Image: Author provided ( no reuse ) / The Conversation

However, the way people view these options is different. It greatly depends on whether they have been relocated ( though it does not appear to matter whether they lost any of their family members or friends ), whether they are concerned about the Ukrainians ‘ growing wars, and whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about American aid.

There is more at play in this battle than territory— never least, saving lives, ensuring Ukraine’s independence, and protecting the region’s future security. Women’s opinions on the importance of preserving regional morality does depend on how any potential agreement might secure different things they care about, according to KIIS’ personal new research.

Women’s decisions about ending the war were greatly influenced by whether they had been relocated or not. &nbsp, Author provided ( no reuse ) / The Conversation

Many ( 43 % ) of Ukrainians believe the conflict will continue for at least another year because of how brutally brutal it has been for two and a half years. The majority of the respondents to our survey had not experienced physical harm in Russian violence ( 12 % ), but the majority had lost a close family member or friend ( 6 % ). About one-third of their households had been displaced.

The study shows growing acknowledgement of combat stress in line with an increasing number of reviews. Instead of immediately enquiring about whether interviewees felt this way about Ukrainians, we questioned whether they were concerned about it. The results were revealing: 58 % worry” a lot” and 28 % worry” a little”, whereas only 10 % report that they do not worry about war fatigue.

Our surveys indicate that Ukrainians are also generally positive about continuing American assistance, though less so than they were in October 2022, despite there being signs of battle weariness among Ukraine’s European allies. About 19 % believe Western support will grow ( down from 29 % in 2022 ), while 35 % believe it will stay the same ( 41 % in 2022 ).

Nearly a quarter ( 24 % ) of people (up from 16 % in 2022 ) believe it will continue, but at a lower level than it is now, and 13 % (up from 3 % in 2022 ) say it is unlikely to continue (up from 3 % in 2022 ).

Life or death

Earlier in the conflict, studies revealed that Ukrainians were overwhelmingly supportive of techniques that preserved the country’s political independence and restored the totality of its territory. Even if making concessions would lessen the likelihood of a nuclear attack over the next three months, this had still carry.

According to the study’s writers,” Soviet control of the government in Kiev or of lands in the south had put the lives of many Russians in danger,” as it is also documented that Russia has committed common human rights violations in briefly occupied territories.

In our 2024 review, we created a straightforward frame experiment to test whether factors about loss of life may influence people’s opinions on negotiations given the battle’s accumulating death toll. We asked half of the interviewees, randomly selected, if they would recognize that “Ukraine concede some of its provinces to end the war”. On 24 % said yes.

For the other quarter, we inquired if they would consent to having Ukraine concede some of its territory in order to save lives and put an end to the battle. In that case, 34 % said yes. But, if territorial concessions are associated with saving life, whether rightly or wrongly, it increases aid for them.

However, 90 % of respondents in the survey of 2024 said they were against the assertion that” Russia should be allowed to control the territory it has occupied since 2022.” But while there is still a majority—if diminished—support for fighting to regain full territorial integrity, there is growing aid for negotiations.

We also know from our research that there is very little proof that Ukrainians will actually accept Russia’s territorial conquests.

Kristin M Bakke is doctor in social science and international relations, UCL, Gerard Toal is professor of government and international affairs, Virginia Tech, and John O’Loughlin is professor of landscape, University of Colorado Boulder

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

Continue Reading

What Fed’s robust rate cut means for US presidential election – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

The Federal Reserve announced on September 18, 2024, in a highly anticipated move, that it would reduce its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to a range of 4. 75 % to 5 %, the first time the cost of borrowing has been lowered in four years.

The decision represents a significant turning point for northern bankers, who believe they have finally prevailed in the fight against inflation. It is also significant in terms of timing, coming just months before a small election in which case the outcome may depend on how Americans feel about the state of the economy.

The price cut has implications for the US market, and maybe the political campaign, as discussed by distinguished professor professor Mike Walden of North Carolina State University.

What does the Fed price cut reveal about the state of the economy?

The Federal Reserve has two obligations: to stabilize the economy while maintaining employment at a reduced level and prices at a target of 2 %. And the central bank weighs whether to increase, low, or maintain the same base rate responsibility when considering whether to balance it.

Policymakers have spent a lot of time trying to control inflation with a number of interest rate increases that have increased the Fed’s benchmark or base rate from 0 % to 0.25 % in the first half of the year to 5.25 % to 5.5 % in September 2024.

I think the labour market was what caused them to cut the price by a half-point now rather than the quarter-point that some were anticipating. The labor market is n’t as robust as it once was, despite the fact that unemployment is currently at 4.2 %.

The latest work figures were a little below aspirations. And some academics predict a recovery. However, there are some that are saying the US is currently in a downturn.

Therefore, it would seem to me that the majority of the Fed’s rate-setting table was more persuaded by recent unemployment data than inflation. The Fed evidently believes it has the inflation struggle in order, so it has turned to its next issue, keeping unemployment reduced, in terms of the two mandate.

A trader sits at desk watching something as TV displays a fed news conference in background
The Fed statement was closely followed by investors. Photo: AP via The Conversation / Richard Drew

Is this the gentle getting that the Fed was hoping for, then?

I did say thus, yes. We are now experiencing a soft landing, and I think the US market will recover while avoiding a downturn.

If I am straight, then that is an accomplishment of Fed plan. A soft landing is strange because it has only happened once since World War II’s close.

That was in mid-1995. According to the legend, Alan Greenspan, the then-Fed couch, became concerned about the possibility of substantially higher prices while taking a daily bath for a bad back. He then proceeded to persuade the Fed board to raise prices, which it did, a step that could have deflated a potential crisis.

What effect does the level cut have?

The first thing to keep in mind is that this does not imply that we are going back to 2019 prices; instead, that would require pay reductions and recession. This will only decrease inflation, or the price at which costs rise.

But it will have an effect. Stock markets spiked on the news in the first hours after the decision was made, so buyers could be seen to be content, even though the major index ended the evening lower.

As a result of the recent rising downs in mortgage rates, which have been trending downward in the lead-up to the Fed decision, investment markets typically anticipate any anticipated change. Interest charges on credit cards have also been decreasing.

So a Fed rate cut was evidently anticipated by the markets. However, the Fed has suggested that there will be more interest rate reductions in the near future, so we should see additional mortgage rate drops.

Is there a chance that some observers may view this as a shift in the social sphere?

As Fed Chair Jay Powell aides the Liberals by cutting costs before the election, I’m sure many people may find this to be true.

But this is an economic-driven selection. There is no proof that this is connected to the vote.

What can we infer about elections and price cuts from story?

Most major spectators, in my opinion, are aware that the Fed is impartial and only makes decisions based on what is best for the business. In truth, over the past 50 years, you may only get one time when brow were raised. That was during the Nixon administration.

The central banks was charged with pumping money into the program and cutting costs in order to make things look more rich in advance of the 1972 vote under Fed Chair Arthur Burns. But it after all blew up when the US headed into a phase of double-digit prices.

Aside from that, you will be hard-pressed to find actual evidence of intervention. In reality, political candidates from both parties have since expressed concerns about the Fed.

However, could the price cut play into the vote campaign?

How do Americans feel about the market, specifically? No really. Mortgage rates wo n’t likely drop much more, in my opinion. And although the media is encouraging for consumers, there is another area of level cuts: They are bad for some types of investors. Cash business owners, for example, will never look upon the Fed walk so warmly.

The two presidential candidates wo n’t, however, attempt to use the news to their advantage.

Democrats will be happy to accept credit for bringing inflation back under their watch and highlighting how it will benefit home-loan Americans, avoiding the fact that they do n’t actually have a say in rate decisions themselves.

However, Democrats may well claim:” Hey, the Fed dropped charges because the market is worse than we thought. And a half-point reduce means they are desperate, the business is terrible and we are heading for recession because of the Biden administrations’s plans”.

Michael Walden is professor and improvement scholar, North Carolina State University

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

Continue Reading

Hezbollah wrongly thought its low-tech pagers were safe – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia, Technology

On September 17, 2024, electronic pagers across Lebanon exploded instantly, injuring more than 2,700 people and killing 12 others. The following morning, another flood of explosions in the country came from detonating walkie-talkies. People of the violent party Hezbollah were reportedly the targets of the problems.

According to US officers cited by The New York Times, the pagers attack involved bombs that Israeli employees planted in the communications products. According to the report, Hezbollah had just ordered a package of pagers.

Quietly attacking the supply chain is hardly a new tactic employed in intelligence and military operations. According to a 2010 NSA inside document, the US National Security Agency intercepted computer hardware intended for international customers, inserted malware or additional surveillance devices, and then repackaged it for shipment to specific foreign customers.

This is different from gaining access to a certain person’s computer, as happened in 1996 when Israel’s Shin Bet allegedly injected bombs into a cellphone to mildly shoot a Hamas bombmaker.

Hezbollah, a lifelong attack of Israel, had increased its use of pagers in the midst of the Hamas assault on Israel on October 7, 2023. By shifting to somewhat low-tech communication products, including pagers and walkie-talkies, Hezbollah evidently sought an edge against Israel’s well-known intelligence in recording targets through their phones.

pieces of a destroyed electronic device
The next wave of bombs in Lebanon involved walkie-talkies. AP Photo

Cellphones: The best monitor

In addition to users, criminals, and the mobile phone company itself, I see mobile devices as the main tracking tool for both government and business entities as a previous cybersecurity professional and latest security researcher. Mobile phone scanning has thus helped to fight terrorism, find missing people, and solve crimes.

Likewise, wireless phone monitoring makes it easy for anyone to report a person’s most personal movements. This can be done for good, such as parental monitoring of children’s activities, assisting you in finding your vehicle in a parking lot, and promoting wicked interests like tracking a partner who is suspected of cheating on or tracking social activists and journalists. Perhaps the US military is still concerned about how its military might be able to be tracked by their phones.

Mobile machine tracking is accomplished in a variety of ways. First, there is the system location data that the phone generates as it passes nearby Crocodile devices or local cell towers, which law enforcement uses to imitate cell towers.

Additionally, there are the features that are integrated into the camera’s operating system or enabled by saved software, which users accidentally consent to by disobeying the computer’s protection plan or terms of service.

Sometimes, governments or other organizations sell the collected data for further person profiling and data mining. Additionally, modern smartphones come with Bluetooth, Wi-Fi, and GPS capabilities that can assist with tracking and capturing user movements both on the floor and via satellites.

Mobile devices may be tracked in real- or near-real-time. Popular technological methods include traditional stereo direction-finding techniques, using intelligence satellites or drones, deploying “man in the middle” tools like Stingrays to deceive mobile towers to catch and remove device traffic, or installing malware such as Pegasus, made by Jewish cyberarms company NSO to record a device’s location.

Using less advanced and less time-efficient methods, users may be able to determine general user locations based on their online activity. This can be done by using website logs or the metadata contained in social media posts, or by working with data brokers to obtain location data from apps that users might download to their devices.

Indeed, because of these vulnerabilities, the leader of Hezbollah earlier this year advised his members to avoid using cellular phones in their activities, noting that Israel’s” surveillance devices are in your pockets. Look at the phone in your hands as well as those of your children if you’re looking for the Israeli agent.

Researchers have shown how these features, often intended for the user’s convenience, can be used by governments, companies and criminals to track people in their daily lives and even predict movements. Many people still are n’t aware of how much information their mobile devices reveal about them.

Pagers, however, unlike mobile phones, can be harder to track depending on whether they support two-way communication.

Why go low-tech

A pager that only records messages is unable to provide a tracking signal for its owner. Therefore, Hezbollah’s use of pagers likely made it more challenging to track their operatives– thus motivating Israeli intelligence services ‘ purported attack on the supply chain of Hezbollah’s pagers.

After the 9/11 attacks, it became difficult for the technologically superior Western intelligence agencies to locate Osama bin Laden for years by using low-tech tactics and personal couriers while avoiding the use of mobile phones and digital tools.

In general, I think the adversary in an asymmetric conflict that employs low-tech strategies, tactics, and technology will almost always be able to compete successfully against a more powerful and well-funded foe.

The US military’s Millennium Challenge war game from 2002 is a well-known illustration of this anomaly in action. Among other things, the insurgent Red forces, led by Marine General Paul van Riper, used low-tech tactics including motorcycle couriers instead of cellphones to evade the Blue forces ‘ high-tech surveillance.

The Red team won the contest within 24 hours of the exercise’s start, forcing the exercise planners to controversially reset and update the scenario to ensure a Blue team victory.

Lessons for everyone

Everyone is reminded that you can be and are likely to be tracked in various ways and for various purposes by terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and al-Qaida by not using smartphones.

Israel’s purported response to Hezbollah’s actions also holds a lesson for everyone. It demonstrates that any device in your life can be compromised by a hacker before you even receive it, in terms of cybersecurity.

Richard Forno is principal lecturer in computer science and electrical engineering, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Continue Reading

US sanctions should stop hurting American business – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will lead the next US presidency, it will need to create numerous difficult choices to ensure long-term and robust economic growth.

The incoming Biden administration’s plan to overhaul the current restrictions program in ways that put economy before politics, for example.

American businesses are suffering from politically inspired sanctions that were intended to hurt foreign adversaries who are undoubtedly doing just as much, and in some cases, more harm to US business interests.

For instance, the US tariffs on aluminum and steel tripled as a result of the escalating conflict with China, which caused the country’s companies to suffer and source input from Chinese suppliers.

In terms of the economic harm US policymakers allegedly believed they would cause, disciplinary US sanctions against Russian firms have largely failed.

However, the actions frequently have caused American businesses to boom and also have greatly impacted the country’s economy, which also contributes to Washington’s continued use of the buck as yet another form of sanctions.

Two American firms ‘ cases — International Paper Company and Arconic Corporation—stand out as sobering stories.

After the US authorities imposed sanctions against American business activities that, International Paper Co, a leading US manufacturer of packaging materials and cellulose materials, had to stop operating and promote its ownership interest in Russia.

In change, International Paper Co completely closed its three firms in Orange, Texas, Riegelwood, North Carolina, and Pensacola, Florida at the end of next year.

The shutdowns reduced the company’s production by about 1.3 million tons ( 8.3 % ), and over 900 employees were laid off. According to media reports, the complete shutdown expenses amounted to some US$ 664 million.

Despite the fact that the package did not ultimately come through, the sanctions-caused turmoil led to acquisition discussions with Suzano, the largest Portuguese papers and pulp company in Latin America. Since then, there have n’t been any known reports of the company’s production recovery or potential merger.

Perhaps more intriguing is Arconic Corporation’s event. In November 2022, the firm was essentially forced to sell 100 % of its Russia-based firm, which commenced activities in 2007.

After the sanctions-forced divestiture, Arconic Corporation recorded a$ 304 million after-tax loss on the sale in the last quarter of 2022.

According to the Des Moines Register, the firm entered into an agreement and a consolidation program in May 2023 to been acquired by money managed by Apollo Global Management, Inc. members.

In Q1 2023, Arconic Corporation’s accounts payable were$ 1.5 billion and its net profit dropped by almost 40 % to$ 25 million from$ 42 million in 2022 quarter on quarter.

Davenport Works, Arconic Corporation’s key manufacturing center located in Iowa, had 2, 400 people in the fall of 2023.

The Quad Cities Metropolitan Area, which includes Rock Island and Moline in Illinois and Davenport and Bettendorf in Iowa, was finally included among the ten largest companies.

But, after the deal closed in August 2023, Arconic Corp’s stock stopped trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Since the company is then privately held, public opinion is not currently being offered on its production indicators.

These two are just two of the numerous large American firms that are enduring Washington’s increasingly harsh sanctions regime. Small and medium-sized enterprises furthermore face major challenges from US restrictions, which generally prove fatal to their operations.

If America’s following head opt to establish new politically motivated restrictions, American firms and their employees will feel the pain as much, if not more, than America’s enemies. And at a time when the US market as a whole is gaining ground. &nbsp,

However, neither candidate seems possible to roll up sanctions and emphasize US business interests. Harris’s Democrats have championed the present storm of sanctions, meaning she’ll probably survive Biden’s policies.

Trump’s success, on the other hand, is likely to ratchet up the price war he started with China in his previous administration. He has pledged to impose tariffs on nations that help de-dollarization initiatives.

In any case, regardless of which party will win the Oval Office in November, it would be wise to evaluate and modify policies that prioritize political considerations and issues over British business interests.

That would n’t need to mean burying the hatchet and making friends with Russia’s Putin or China’s Xi. The next president will still have plenty of ways to impose sanctions on allies and change them in ways that benefit American businesses rather than harm them. It’s great time to do so.

Jason Rivers is a freelance blogger and former investment bank researcher with a focus on US politics, economy, and international relations.

Continue Reading

Trump kill tries par for the course in US history – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

The most recent book in a long record book is that previous president Donald Trump survived his next assassination attempt on September 15, 2024. Political assassination attempts, whether effective or not, are very widespread in American history.

There have been 45 guys elected leader since the government’s foundation. 40 % of them have known life-threatening situations. Four president – Abraham Lincoln, James A. Garfield, William McKinley and John F Kennedy – have been assassinated.

While Ronald Reagan was injured while in business, with a potential killer about putting an end to his life in 1981, while Trump and Theodore Roosevelt were both shot when they were both president.

Thirteen people – Andrew Jackson, William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H W Bush, Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama and Joe Biden – have had known narratives or failed efforts to end their lives.

Some attempted numerous times, and it’s possible that the public was not made aware of any additional attempts made against them or other presidents.

President serve as examples of our American principles. They frequently represent our nation, their political gathering, and its principles in real terms. Some people choose to express their opinions in violent methods when they are disappointed with the United States or its laws.

Unintentionally, those who choose to attack a president humanize the pretty presidents they want to remove.

People wearing dark shirts stand behind orange police tape on green grass.
On September 17, 2024, rules police began an investigation into the location where the Secret Service located a potential killer of former president Donald Trump. Photo: Joe Raedle / Getty Image via The Talk

A typical yarn

Every effort or assassination by the president has been carried out with a weapon. With the exception of Gerald Ford’s two attempted murderers, all the culprits have been adult.

This includes Trump’s two adversaries, men who were once enthralled by but evidently grew disillusioned with aspects of modern elections.

An armed man was discovered lying at a Trump golf lessons in Palm Beach, Florida, on September 15. The man fled in a vehicle before being apprehended and detained, but the Secret Service fired at him.

A young person shot to the head at a Pennsylvania rally on July 13 to try to remove Trump, two weeks prior to the incident.

Some political assassination attempts appear to be illogical to anyone other than the target.

Garfield was killed in 1881 by a man by the name of Charles Guiteau because he wished to get given a position in the government that was patronizing.

Lincoln was killed by John Wilkes Booth as part of a larger story to rekindle support for slavery and the” Southern cause.” On the same day Lincoln was killed in 1865, his secretary of state, William Seward, was attacked but survived.

The plot also included the murder of then-Vice President Andrew Johnson by George Atzerodt, who rather snoozed and threw the knife into a gutter.

Booth and his associates hoped that the Union would become disorganized and the way of succession would be thrown into disarray as a result of these officials ‘ almost continuous deaths. Their plan fell aside, and with Johnson dead, the nation’s obvious path of national succession remained unchanged.

Men in suits and police uniforms are seen rushing together on a street in a black and white photo.
During an death test in September 1975, Secret Service agents and police rushed to defend President Gerald Ford. Poto: Corbis via Getty Images / The Talk

A close miss

Half a century afterwards, while former President Theodore Roosevelt was campaigning for a second presidential term in 1912, he was shot in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Though he was shot at about point-blank selection, Roosevelt was, in a way, saved by his poor hearing and long-winded character. A 50-page conversation and his steel eyeglass case were both wrapped in his pocket by Roosevelt. Both items slowed the gun so much that it only went into his chest and not more than the body.

Roosevelt reportedly proceeded to deliver a 90-minute talk before heading to the doctor.

When two people attempted to kill President Gerald Ford in September 1975, one of Trump’s two assassination attempts comes closest to that of his two prior assassinations.

Both Trump and Ford were the target of widespread death plots in a short amount of time, and both were killed by people with illogical intentions.

Lynnette” Loud” Fromme, a one-time part of the Manson home, a well-known religion in the 1970s, attempted to kill Ford in attempt, she claimed, to protect California redwood trees.

The Environmental Protection Agency issued a warning at the time about the effects of smog, leading her to think that saving the trees would be assassinated. Fromme wore a complete red suit to the meeting with the president in Sacramento, and aimed and fired at him within a 2-foot collection.

Except the gun did n’t fire.

Because she had not yet opened the chamber, which was good because she had no knowledge of firearms, there was a push in the audience. After that first sought shot, Secret Service intervened. Eventually, Fromme claimed she did not want to shot the leader.

Seventeen time after, on September 22 in San Francisco, Sara Jane Moore shot at Ford from about 40 feet away and missed. Her second shot missed as well, this day because a witness, Oliver Sipple, grabbed the gun, forcing the chance to get large, injuring a taxi driver.

Before being shot outside the Washington Hilton resort in March 1981, President Ronald Reagan waved and grinned. Photo: Corbis via Getty Images / The Talk

Lastly, Reagan survived an assassination attempt by John Hinckley Jr. on March 30, 1981. Hinckley was obsessed with the famous picture” Taxi Driver” and, in particular, the figure played by actress Jodie Foster.

She had meeting him if he could impress Foster, he thought. Hinckley fired six bullets in two hours as Reagan left the Washington Hilton resort. One picture deflected off the vehicles and into the government’s left area, hitting his lungs.

Reagan would afterward repeat one of his funnier sayings,” I just hope you’re Republicans,” when he was born that time. One dentist replied,” Now, Mr President, we’re all Republicans”.

A drawing shows a man wearing a black suit holding a gun up against the back of a man's head while he is seated next to two women and a man in formal clothing.
The death of Abraham Lincoln is depicted in an illustration from 1865. Image: Fine Art Images / Heritage Images via Getty Images/ The Talk

The best and worst of us

American presidents and a few individuals have been the targets of gunmen and other possible attackers throughout history as a way to express their dissatisfaction with the government. The rationales for these assassins ‘ actions vary from just conflict to delusions anointing the murderer, or would-be killer, a noble main character.

The best and worst of people are instantaneously reflected in national assassinations. The worst of society is clearly visible in the crime itself, but Americans frequently appear at their best in the fallout.

Like Reagan’s doctors previously recognized, politics does not displace mankind or be more valued than a woman’s health and safety.

Shannon Bow O’Brien is associate professor of coaching, The University of Texas at Austin

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

Continue Reading

Exploding pagers could ignite full-scale Mideast war – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Another menacing growth that is causing the Middle East to start a full-fledged local war is the alleged Jewish attack on Hezbollah members via their pagers. With the complete help of the Iran-led” axis of weight,” Hezbollah has little choice but to fight.

The style and effect of targeting the pagers are extraordinary. The invasion resulted in at least 11 murders, including some of Hezbollah’s soldiers, and up to 3, 000 persons wounded.

The main goal of the invasion, which US authorities claim was carried out by Israel, was to destroy Hezbollah’s means of communication and its command and control method in Lebanon.

Pagers have increasingly become the chosen communication method within the team as Hezbollah has reduced the use of cellular phones by its troops because Israel may easily find and target them.

Given the political divisions in the country, the attack may have been intended to stoke panic within the organization and among the Lebanese public, who are typically opposed to Hezbollah.

The Israeli leadership under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that it is determined to end the threat of Hezbollah, which has operated in solidarity with Hamas, since Hamas ‘ attacks on southern Israel on October 7.

Hours prior to the pager attack, Netanyahu’s government stated that Israel’s war objectives would include the return of the tens of thousands of residents of northern Israel, which they had fled due to ongoing rocket fire from Hezbollah. Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, said the only way to do this was through military action.

The simultaneous pager explosions on Tuesday, then, may be a prelude to an all-out Israeli offensive against Hezbollah.

The consequences of war with Hezbollah

Hezbollah has already declared it will retaliate. What form this will take is still to be seen. The group has a massive military arsenal that allows it to attack other regions of the Jewish state, including densely populated Tel Aviv, with drones and missiles, as well as attack northern Israel.

Hezbollah showed this capability in its 2006 war with Israel. The war lasted 34 days, during which 165 Israelis were killed ( 121 IDF soldiers and 44 civilians ) and Israel’s economy and tourist industry were markedly damaged. Hezbollah and Lebanese losses were far greater, with at least 1, 100 deaths. However, the Israel Defence Forces ( IDF) failed to destroy or incapacitate the group.

Any successful retaliatory attack on Israel’s cities could result in serious civilian casualties, giving Israel a new pretext to pursue its long-awaited goal of destroying Hezbollah and punishing its principal supporter, the Islamic Republic of Iran.

In a wider conflict, the United States is committed to defending Israel, while Iran would support Hezbollah in whatever way necessary. Iranian leaders are mistaken if they believe Iran will continue to vehemently abstain from any actions that could lead to hostilities with Israel and the US.

Hezbollah is a crucial component of the regime’s national and regional security framework. Tehran has invested heavily in the group, along with other regional affiliates – Iraqi militias, the Yemeni Houthis and the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, in particular. This” axis of resistance” was created with the intention of creating a powerful deterrent against Israel and the US.

The Iranian regime has seen Israel and its main supporter, the US, as an existential threat, just as Israel has seen Iran in the same light since it was founded 45 years ago.

For this, the regime has reoriented its foreign relations towards America’s major adversaries, especially Russia and China. Moscow will not hesitate to support Iran and its affiliates in any war because of the fact that the Russo-Iranian military cooperation has grown so powerful.

Tehran is fully cognisant of Israel’s nuclear prowess. Iran has developed its own nuclear program to the point where it qualifies as a weapon to prevent it. Russian leaders may have also gotten Russia’s assurances that if Israel were to use its nuclear weapons, it would help protect Iran.

In the meantime, it is important to keep in mind that Israel has been unable to completely destroy Hamas after nearly a year of destroying Gaza and causing its residents.

Its own actions demonstrate this. Gazans have been repeatedly forced to relocate so that IDF soldiers can operate in areas they had previously claimed were free of fighters.

It would take much more effort to defeat Hezbollah and its supporters. It carries the serious risk of a war that all parties have been campaigning against but are already getting ready for.

The pager attack is just the most recent operation to threaten any chance of a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip that would bring about peace rather than war.

At the Australian National University, Professor Amin Saikal is emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Continue Reading