Cause to buy, cause to sell China’s new bull market – Asia Times

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As Beijing’s signal campaign sends China stocks skyrocketing, matter analyst Stephen Jen&nbsp, among the bull who think China’s biggest protest since 2008 is just getting started.

” Foreign equities&nbsp, are really devalued”, says Jen, the chief executive officer of Eurizon SLJ. Because “investors are so thin everything Taiwanese”, he notes,” a severe rally is entirely feasible”.

Chinese shares rose for a ninth straight day on Monday ( September 30 ) thanks to China’s bold moves last week to slash interest rates, lower mortgage rates, relax regulations for homebuyers in major cities, reduce the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve, and telegraphed moves of stimulus to come.

Today’s wave by as much as 9.1 % in the standard CSI 300 Catalog is the biggest since 2015, a month drenched in relevance for President Xi Jinping’s state. In July and August 2015, Shanghai shares plunged to a third of their worth in just three months.

Fast-forward to the present, the People’s Bank of China’s ( PBOC ) actions, coupled with the US Federal Reserve’s big easing and falling global oil prices, mean China’s risk assets “ought to do very well”, Jen says. ” After the US vote, I expect world stocks to march profoundly into year-end”, he adds.

No so fast, warns Stephen Roach, past Asia-region chair for Morgan Stanley. Is China’s long-term financial problem over now that the Politburo has issued a message of further emergency meetings, asks economist Roach? If it were only that easy”.

Roach remains “increasingly concerned that China was at risk of falling into a&nbsp, Japanese-like quagmire&nbsp, –&nbsp, a&nbsp, balance strip recession&nbsp, characterized by slowdown and depreciation as an extension of the bursting of a big debt-fueled property bubble”.

Matter Roach among the academics wondering what, oh what, the share bulls rushing China’s means are thinking.

In fact, investors are rushing up into everything China without project plans to restore the still troubled real estate market, rebalance growth engines toward services and apart from exports, enhance local governments ‘ struggling balance sheets, and create strong safety nets to encourage China’s families to save less and spend more.

President Xi’s staff should be focused on the gap between those reversing China little posts, which Bank of America Corp discovered was one of the most crowded industry in the world, and the unrelenting China bears if it wants to keep the bulls work going.

That means entering the march with bold plans to carry out the liberalizing measures his Communist Party has promised to do since 2013 but has failed to deliver.

For today, China’s rapid return to economic stimulus setting has the nation’s attention. However, Zhiwei Zhang, an economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, is right to say that” the key policy to address the macro challenge remains to be fiscal.

In order to help China meet its 5 % economic growth target, local media are buzzing about an additional 2 trillion yuan ( US$ 285 ) worth of bond sales. Much more may be needed, nevertheless, to improve poor household demand and offset headwinds from overseas.

Japan’s increase in interest rates to their highest level since 2008 poses a risk to other countries. Another shows signs of strain in the US economy as a contentious election draws near, with both Democrats and Republicans threatening new tariffs on everything made in China.

Last week, PBOC Governor&nbsp, Pan Gongsheng&nbsp, unveiled a barrage of support measures, including a reduction in the seven-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5 % from 1.7 %. Additionally, the PBOC announced the largest-ever rate reduction for its one-year policy loans, cutting loan prime rates and deposit rates.

The Politburo, Beijing’s top decision-making body, called for a “forceful” implementation of these and other measures supposedly to come. Additionally, it highlighted a new need to” stop declining” the real estate market.

These efforts might include removing some of the restrictions on home purchases that are still in place. Top cities could impose restrictions on visitors who are not from their own neighborhoods. In other words, liberalizing China’s “hukou” residence permit system.

Beijing has n’t yet provided a detailed timeline or procedure for getting bad assets off the balance sheets of large property developers to lessen their default risks. Or to encourage local governments to purchase unfinished real estate projects without further deteriorating their already fragile fiscal standing.

Premier Xi Qiang’s team has also made significant efforts to make more market space available for small and medium-sized private companies by reducing the dominance of state-owned enterprises. And global investors still are n’t clear on the state of Xi’s crackdown on China’s biggest tech companies.

Roach is one of the people who is concerned that last week’s Politburo statement only “paid lip service to fiscal stimulus imperatives,” even on fiscal issues. These actions were more likely to be viewed as broad promises than as a comprehensive list of planned actions.

Roach points out that while the Politburo vowed to stop the housing market’s decline, policy choices were made in support of this goal, primarily through lower mortgage rates, downpayment requirements for second homes, and lower interest rates on so-called social housing.

Roach remarks that the long-awaited fiscal program, which would absorb the surplus of unsold homes and turn it into low-income public housing, had a notable lack of detail.

China continues to be wary of implementing the kind of fiscal bazooka that was so successful in sparkeding its recovery in 2009-10, like Japan, where fiscal actions in the 1990s were repeatedly strained by rising public sector indebtedness. And perhaps that’s with good reason”, he says.

Roach points out that the Chinese government’s debt-to-gross domestic product ratio was 85 % in early 2024, nearly three times what it was in 2009. Following Lehman Brothers ‘ demise in the US, Beijing finally started using the stimulus apparatus.

It’s imperative, though, that Team Xi do more to deal with investors ‘ underlying concerns about China’s financial system than just throw money at the problem, economists say.

Last week, the PBOC cheered stock punters by unveiling a new 500 billion yuan ($ 71 billion ) swap facility that funds, securities firms and insurance companies can tap to buy equities. The facility could be increased to 1.5 trillion yuan ($ 214 billion ).

Beijing is also introducing a lending facility for publicly traded companies to buy back shares and increase holdings. It will start at 300 billion yuan ($ 42 billion ) and possibly grow to 900 billion yuan ($ 128 billion ). Additionally, a type of market stabilization fund might be in the works.

Last week, Wu Qing, the chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, said Beijing will roll out moves to encourage mergers and acquisitions.

With all that, there’s little doubt the stimulus floodgates have been opened. We believe that the persistent growth weakness has hit policymakers ‘ pain threshold, and the policy put has been triggered, as Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note.

Yet Team Xi needs to combine supply-side actions to further strengthen China’s investment environment for the long run to ensure the bull run continues.

As Roach explains, comparisons with Japan are far from perfect. There are many characteristics of China that are fundamentally different from those that contributed to Japan’s numerous “lost decades,” he claims.

” Other than being a large developing economy with several still untapped sources of future growth– namely, &nbsp, household consumption, urbanization, and&nbsp, insufficient capital endowment&nbsp, of its large workforce – China also benefits from understanding the lessons of Japan”.

For now, Roach admits,” China’s seemingly outsized policy stimulus took most of us by surprise”. He adds that” the financial authorities apparently came to the rescue with their own version of a “big bazooka” just as we had grownaccustomed to Beijing’s grudging response to increasingly serious economic problems. ‘&nbsp, At least that’s the verdict of the Chinese equity market”.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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China wakes, US builds, woke wanes and tariffs tally – Asia Times

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Your weekly, almost weekly Noahpinion collection of intriguing news from around the world is now in order.

1. China accepts the fact of the economic system.

I made the argument two weeks ago that China is experiencing a lack of global demand, and that the answer would be to have the central authorities A) loan out banks and local government funding entities, and B) apply fiscal and monetary stimulus. Maybe Xi Jinping reads my site. China is implementing some more significant signal steps:

In a unique staged media briefing broadcast live around the world on Tuesday, the People’s Bank of China led the charge to rekindle mood, opening its stock market and lowering borrowing costs. The next day it kept the good news flowing by&nbsp, lowering&nbsp, the interest rate on its one-year money to lenders by the most on history, while the government issued exceptional cash pamphlets and floated new incentives for some homeless graduates…

The 24-man Politburo under the leadership of Xi made a second-quarter-of-a-kind promise on Thursday, adding more growth-boosting goodies, vowing to increase governmental spending, and making its first “declining” pledge to prevent property prices. The wave of policy announcements even revealed a new emphasis on boosting use, saying it was “necessary to listen to the concerns of the people.”…

Foreign companies soon soared. Xi’s state appears to be attempting to bail out the Chinese banking system, which is even more encouraging ( at least if you want China to keep growing ):

China’s largest state lenders may receive up to 1 trillion yuan ( US$ 142 billion ) of money to strengthen their capacity to support the country’s struggling economy. Such a move would be the first moment since the global financial crisis in 2008 that Beijing has injected money into its large businesses.

Injecting money refers to “giving businesses money,” for those who are unfamiliar. It implies a loan.

This is probably even more important than trigger, since getting banks lending once is the key to a sustained recovery. Foreign supporters have long held that the state and banks are one and the same because of the “unitary position” principle, which is applied to the “unitary state” concept.

That concept is probably incorrect. Foreign banks have their own subsidies, and fear getting culled by the state if they fail. Giving them a cushion against loss by injecting them with money helps them gain the confidence to give again.

The last step in this process would be to rescue China’s regional government financing systems, which have grown to be very significant in China’s regional economies. But only bailing out the banks and doing some significant fiscal and monetary stimulus may have a huge impact in terms of shortening and ameliorating China’s recession.

2. The “build something country”

US economic policy has been shifting toward industrial policy. A number of commentators who are opposed to this change have been quick to dismiss the entire endeavor as a result of seeing any signs of trouble. For instance, Matt Cole and Chris Nicholson wrote an op-ed in The Hill in March of this year that was so explosively titled” DE I killed the CHIPS Act.”

Their single piece of evidence for this bold thesis was that TSMC’s fab in Arizona was projected to have significant delays due to a dispute with local construction unions.

In fact, the labor dispute it referenced had already been resolved even before that disparaging op-ed was published. And just one month after the op-ed was published, TSMC was given the official receipt of its CHIPS Act funding and suddenly declared that its Arizona project was on schedule.

Now, less than six months later, &nbsp, Tim Culpan reports&nbsp, that TSMC’s Arizona plant has started making some chips for Apple. They’re producing a fairly advanced chip, and they’re reportedly producing good yields:

The A16 SoC from Apple, which debuted in the&nbsp, iPhone 14 Pro, was first introduced two years ago in the&nbsp, iPhone 14 Pro, and is currently being produced in small, but significant quantities at TSMC’s Fab 21 in Arizona. This puts the Arizona project on track to reach its&nbsp, production target in the first half of 2025.

This is a BFD. The US government’s$ 39 billion CHIPS for America Fund is the star project under the CHIPS Act. The fact that they chose the most advanced chip in terms of both volume and technology shows that Apple and TSMC want to start big…

Currently, TSMC produces yields in Arizona that are, in essence, neck and neck, slightly below what is enjoyed in Taiwan back home. Most important, though, is that improvements are moving so rapidly that true yield parity between Taiwan and Arizona is expected to be reached in coming months.

Everyone has egg on their face now that everyone leaped at the chance to call the CHIPS Act a failure after the initial delay report.

In addition, the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s other significant piece of industrial policy legislation, appears to be giving US solar manufacturing a significant boost. Solar manufacturers are &nbsp, ramping up production, and the US is getting the ability to build the pieces of the solar supply chain that it had previously outsourced entirely to China and other countries:

Source: Jesse Peltan &nbsp

Although this is still insignificant in comparison to what China can produce, it means that if a war breaks out, the US will not be able to use solar power.

Note that both the successes in chips and solar are cases where the private sector made most of the investment itself, and the US government simply&nbsp, prompted&nbsp, that investment with subsidies.

This contrasts starkly with the US government’s promise to build things itself, and which was stymied by its lack of state funding and its own byzantine permitting process.

A big lesson to be learned from this is that Matt Yglesias is correct, and that the US government has willfully squandered a lot of its state funding since the 1970s. Therefore, the most effective industrial policy, at least right now, is for government to act as the spur for the private sector to invest its own money.

The even more important lesson is that knee-jerk critics of industrial policy need to be a little more prudent and circumspective, or else they’ll keep coming off as silly when industrial policy succeeds. We need intelligent, thoughtful critics who can identify the problems, challenges, and drawbacks that are bound to be found in industrial policy. People who simply pounce on any whiff of difficulty are unhelpful.

3. Justifications for tariffs

The US government is becoming more hostile to Chinese imports all the time. The “de minimis” exemption, which allows Chinese companies like Temu and Shein to send Americans small, inexpensive packages without paying tariffs, has recently been made public by Biden. Additionally, Biden’s administration is putting a ban on Chinese components in any cars that are connected to the internet to prevent potential sabotage, considering an outright ban.

Meanwhile, Trump is going around promising tariffs, tariffs, and&nbsp, more tariffs&nbsp, as the solution to a variety of economic ills ( or just because&nbsp, he really likes tariffs ). Some people are talking about it, but this is not the election’s most important policy issue.

For instance, Kim Clausing, an economist, contends that the US should cut down on tax havens by reducing the incentive for offshoring in favor of tariffs. But I think that while this is a laudable move, it would n’t really do much vis-a-vis China, because China is not a tax haven. The reason Democrats have been favoring tariffs on China, which is&nbsp, national security, is really missing from Clausing’s proposal.

Meanwhile, Oren Cass has a post at the Atlantic in which he makes a general case for tariffs as a useful policy tool. Some excerpts:

[Economists ‘] first error is to only take into account the costs of tariffs, and not the benefits… [ D] omestic production has value beyond what market prices reflect… [ D] tarifs [d ] omestic production has value… to the extent that they combat those harms, they accordingly bring collective benefits…

Manufacturing does matter, as the effects of globalization have shown. It matters for national security, ensuring both the&nbsp, resilience of supply chains&nbsp, and the&nbsp, capacity of the defense-industrial base. It also has a significant impact on growth…

Manufacturing is the engine of innovation. As the McKinsey Global Institute has &nbsp, noted, the manufacturing sector plays an outsize role in private research spending. Complete supply chains and engineering expertise are followed when offshore manufacturing heads. Firms and workers positioned near the factory floor and close to competitors, suppliers, and customers benefit from the tight feedback loop between design and production, which is necessary for improvements in both.

Cass also argues that the harms from tariffs will be limited when foreign companies circumvent the tariffs by building their products in the US. Additionally, he makes note that tariffs do generate more tax revenue.

You’ll hear me saying similar things when I defend industrial policy because all of these arguments are reasonable. But there are two questions here that Cass does n’t really address.

First of all, I believe Cass has largely identified real externalities, but that does n’t imply that tariffs are the most efficient policy tool for addressing those externalities. &nbsp,

Tariffs ‘ effects are limited&nbsp, by exchange rate adjustment — when you put tariffs on China, the yuan gets cheaper, partially negating the effect of the tariff. Additionally, tariffs on intermediate goods actually exacerbate many of the externalities Cass discusses by preventing domestic manufacturers from receiving affordable inputs for their production processes. For national security reasons, it might be a cost that is worthwhile to pay, but it is a real cost.

And second, Cass ‘&nbsp, general&nbsp, defense of tariffs ignores many of the real, specifc features of Trump’s tariff proposals. Trump would impose tariffs on US allies rather than strengthen national security because it would stifle competition on both sides and prevent them from achieving economies of scale. Additionally, it would strain both sides ‘ defense-industrial bases.

So on both sides of the tariff debate, I still see too much debate about ideal policies, and not enough engagement with the specific policies being enacted or proposed. That said, I think the debate has significantly improved since it was a few years ago, which is good. I always want to see more of Clausing and Cass ‘ arguments made in a reasonable way rather than yell at ideological positions.

4. The onset of fatigue

The inert coagulum of a once highly reactive sap is the conservatism of a religion — its orthodoxy. — Eric Hoffer

Let’s talk about wokeness as long as we’re on the subject of identity politics from the year 2010. I wrote a number of posts about this sociocultural phenomenon back in 2021 and this one is the one I summarized here.

My basic thesis is that wokeness is a Protestant-derived American belief system and social phenomenon that has been around since before the founding of the United States, and that it periodically resurfaces for a while when technological and economic changes allow.

And my fundamental prediction is that after the efflorescence of the 2010s, wokeness will fade into a waxy orthodoxy, ruling a shrinking number of university administrations, school boards, and online communities, before reappearing on the scene many decades from now.

Musa al-Gharbi wrote a great post last year that pulled together various data sources to show that the” Great Awakening” of the 2010s is waning. Now The Economist has &nbsp, a similar post, with different data sources. Several examples are provided:

[ D] discussion and support for woke views reached their peak in America in the early 2020s and have since declined significantly… Almost everywhere we looked, a similar trend emerged: wokeness increased sharply in 2015 as Donald Trump entered the political fray, increased in the aftermath of# MeToo and Black Lives Matter, reached its highest point in 2021-22, and has since decreased…

In the most recent Gallup data, from earlier this year, 35 % of people said they worried” a great deal” about race relations, down from a peak of 48 % in 2021 but up from 17 % in 2014…In]General Social Survey ] data the view that discrimination is the main reason for differences in outcomes between races peaked in 2021 and fell…in 2022. Young people and those on the left have experienced some of the biggest rises and subsequent declines in woke thinking…

The share of Americans who view sexism as a serious issue or a moderately serious issue reached a record high of 70 % in 2018….

Pew finds that the share of people who believe someone can be a different sex from the one of their birth has fallen steadily since 2017, when it first asked the question. According to YouGov, the proportion of trans people who play for sports teams that match their chosen gender rather than their biological sex has increased from 53 % in 2022 to 61 % in 2024.

The use of the term” white privilege” in television reached its highest level in 2021, appearing roughly 2.5 times for every million words in the New York Times and The Times in 2020…

Mentions of DEI in earnings calls shot up almost five-fold between the first and third quarters of 2020…They peaked in the second quarter of 2021…They have since begun to drop sharply again…The number of people employed in DEI has fallen in the past few years.

This corresponds to my 2021 forecasts. And if I’m correct, this pattern will continue over the coming years, even as conservatives continue to find and highlight instances of wokeness in mainstream culture, including academia, and other progressive areas. Wokeness is an orthodoxy now, and orthodoxies are n’t fun and cool anymore.

However, wokeness is not particularly optimized for being a conservative set of rules and traditions, but rather for being a charismatic activist movement. So I anticipate that its decline will be quick, up until, of course, it resurrects. But that will be when you and I are very old or dead.

5. Unions versus automation

It’s very hard to be a pro-union pundit when&nbsp, unions make demands like this one:

About 45, 000 dockworkers along the US East and Gulf Coasts are threatening to strike on October 1st, a move that would shut down ports that handle about half the nation’s cargo from ships…

The International Longshoremen’s Union wants to see a total ban on automation of cranes, gates, and container movements used in 36 US ports…

A prolonged strike would almost certainly hurt the US economy. The union members anticipate going on their biggest fight against the automation of job functions at ports, according to Union President [ Union President ] Daggett.

We do n’t think robotics should supplant humans, he said. ” Especially a human being that’s historically performed that job”.…

According to experts, it’s unclear whether automation will cause layoffs in the Ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, according to a study conducted by the Economic Roundtable of Los Angeles in 2022 that was funded by the West Coast dockworkers union…

However, another study conducted by a professor at the University of California, Berkeley that year, which was commissioned by port operators and shippers, found that paid hours for port union members increased by 11.2 % between 2015 and 2021, the same year.

At the huge Port of Rotterdam, one of the world’s most automated ports, union workers pushed for early-retirement packages and work-time reductions as a means to preserve jobs. And ultimately, a researcher from Erasmus University in the Netherlands discovered that mechanization did n’t lead to significant job losses.

In terms of automation, US ports outperform their counterparts in Asia and Europe. Analysts note that most US ports take longer to unload container ships than do those in Asia and Europe and suggest that without more automation, they could become even less competitive.

The prohibition of automation is only a means of destroying the goose that produces the golden eggs, ultimately causing harm to dockworkers. It also imposes a tax on the entire US economy. If you did n’t like the inflation of 2021, you should want more efficient, high-capacity automated ports. Instead of resuming self-defeating luddism, the US should emulate Rotterdam.

This shortened and reorganized article was originally published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack, and is now republished with kind permission. Read the original here &nbsp, and become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

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Israeli invasion of Lebanon would be a mistake – Asia Times

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The demise of Hezbollah’s president, Hassan Nasrallah, in an Israeli attack in Beirut on September 27 has left the violent Syrian business leaderless at a crucial time.

The head of the northern command of the Israel Defense Forces ( IDF), Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, had told his soldiers to prepare for a potential invasion of Lebanon two days earlier in a speech broadcast around the world.

There is every reason to believe Friday’s ( September 27 ) airstrike, which targeted Hezbollah’s headquarters building in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, was in preparation for a possible invasion. It came after weeks of strikes which Israel promises have eliminated many of Hezbollah’s top management.

Halevi told his soldiers on September 25 that they would “go in, kill the enemy that, and quickly damage” Hezbollah’s system. Hezbollah is a part of the Palestinian population, and this approach guarantees the deaths of innocent civilians.

Since 2006, both Hezbollah and the IDF have sought to avoid a direct fight. For decades, they have played tit-for-tat with the logic of fairness to avoid an all-out battle.

Although the brutal October 7 strikes on Israel by Hamas triggered a commencement of hostilities, until last week, both edges were calling for restraint. What has changed? Is a earth war then expected? And if so, what would that mean for Hezbollah and Lebanon?

Israel has a track record of engaging in defense maneuvers in Lebanon that have only actually made its allies stronger over the long term. The destruction of the Palestine Liberation Organization ( PLO ) did not stop Hamas from emerging; rather, it assisted in its creation.

Also, Israel’s achievement of the PLO in southern Lebanon triggered the development of Hezbollah. Israel has shown itself capable of occupying even the smallest piece of Syrian land despite five incursions since 1978.

The increase started on September 18 when Israel detonated dozens of pagers and mobile gadgets owned by Hezbollah workers, killing at least 32 and injuring many thousand persons. Both factors have been preparing for a new issue for years.

This modern attack, which had been planned for years, could be characterized as a tactical masterstroke to put an end to the enemy. The IDF had to act or lose the” surprise” because Hezbollah appeared to be becoming suspicious of the weapons. This suggests that operational concerns are taking precedence over corporate and political ones, which study consistently suggests is not a wise idea.

However, these cuts are believed to possess crippled Hezbollah’s demand in the short term and emboldened the IDF’s management. On September 18, Israel’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, told Jewish soldiers:” We are at the launch of a new step in the battle — it requires courage, determination and perseverance”. While he made no mention of the exploding tools, he praised the function of Israel’s military and security firms, noting their findings were excellent.

The IDF has developed a strategy over the” Blue Line,” the de facto borders that distinguishes Israel and Lebanon, over the past few years. Hezbollah’s top operatives have been effective and accessible on the Blue Line, which is closely monitored by the IDF, encouraged by the failure of the organization to fight it in the July 2006 war.

This has enabled the Army to picture, identify and track top Hezbollah management, which is why since October 7 we have seen a dynasty of assassinations of its crucial operatives, including Ibrahim Aqeel, a commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force, and more recently, Mohammed Sarour in Beirut, as well as many others.

The IDF now believes it has Hezbollah on its knees, or at least one knee. The IDF is currently escalating because it is using the same strategy as in Gaza to bomb any area it can reasonably claim to be a Hezbollah target.

The Lebanese population has been harmed by this. Since October 8th, 2023, the Health Ministry has reported that 1, 540 people have died and thousands of innocent civilians have been hurt, according to the Health Ministry’s statement on Friday. An estimated 1 million people have been displaced from their homes in Lebanon, according to a report from 533 shelters in which over 70, 000 civilians have registered.

Can Hezbollah fight back?

Hezbollah has been temporarily unable to lead itself as a result of the death of Nasrallah, and the demise of a number of its senior figures has deprived it of experienced commanders, many of whom have had recent combat experience in Syria. Additionally, south Lebanon’s bombings are reducing Hezbollah’s stock of rockets and other weapons.

Israel should not, however, accept the fact that Hezbollah is no longer a part of the equation or underestimate the organization. If the IDF makes the error of putting boots on the ground once more, Hezbollah’s real strength has always been in its capacity to melt into the population, and it will be ready to launch a war of attrition with hit-and-run tactics. The failure of all five previous invasions should indicate that the outcome might be a repeat of what took place between 1982 and 2006?

Furthermore, while Iran’s response to the escalation has been muted thus far, it is unlikely to abandon Hezbollah. A long, drawn-out, low-intensity conflict would favour the kind of asymmetric tactics used by the” axis of resistance”, which also includes Lebanon’s neighbour, Syria.

By bombing and displacing the Lebanese population, the IDF aims to reduce morale. On the grounds that they are Hezbollah ammunition and weapons depots, it is now destroying private homes and public buildings.

The Palestine conflict has always been viewed as the main reason for the civil war that erupted in Lebanon between 1975 and 1990. In order to show solidarity with Hamas since the October 7 attack, the IDF is betting on the Lebanese people turning their backs on Hezbollah for launching a new war against them as a result of its rocket barrages into northern Israel.

The IDF should keep in mind the past, even though there are many Lebanonis who oppose Hezbollah and its activities in south Lebanon. Even though Hezbollah is a popular force in Lebanon right now, indiscriminate bombing of the kind we are currently seeing will not be tolerated by the populace indefinitely.

When the IDF invaded south Lebanon in 1982, some Lebanese welcomed them with rice and flowers, describing them as liberators from the PLO. However, that warm welcome did not last.

In 2006, the IDF applied a similar strategy, targeting civilian evacuation convoys and UN compounds. And once again, the tide of public opinion swiftly swung back in favor of “al-muqawimah” ( the resistance ).

Hezbollah is reportedly trying to retake control of the Litani river, impose UN resolution 1701, and allow displaced people to return to their homes. However, Israel and the IDF are naive to believe that, regardless of how successful in the short term, an invasion or a bombing campaign will enable Israeli civilians to live peacefully along the Blue Line for the long term.

Ultimately, the only way forward is for both parties to come to the table and negotiate. The human cost of Israel’s current strategy in Lebanon is awry to consider, and it is likely to spark even more hatred, fostering a new wave of anti-Israel fighters, as opposed to providing the foundation for a long-lasting peace.

Chiara Ruffa is professor of political science at Sciences Po, while Vanessa Newby is assistant professor at Leiden University’s Institute of Security and Global Affairs.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Nasrallah killing leaves Hezbollah leaderless and vulnerable – Asia Times

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Hassan Nasrallah’s execution on September 28 in an Israeli attack hits Iran, which has lost its most important alliance in the Middle East, head of a decisive blow.

Since the end of the Second Lebanon War in the summer of 2006, the fight between Israel and Hezbollah has reached its most sour levels in recent days. Hezbollah launched a new front against Israel the day after Hamas ‘ terrible terror attack on October 7 that killed 1,200 Israelis, many of whom were civilians killed in their homes close to the Gaza border or at the local Nova music festival.

Hezbollah, which has been labeled a terrorist organization by the US and UK institutions, quickly showed its support and cooperation with Hamas and instantly launched rockets at both civil and military targets in northeastern Israel.

The Israeli authorities evacuated around 100, 000 residents who lived close to the Lebanese border out of fear that Hezbollah might launch a similar incursion into Galilee and cause a massacre of the Jewish human population. These individuals have now been forced to leave their homes for a time.

Until recently, the fighting between the celebrations was characterized by relatively small power. Israeli civilian and military targets have been bombarded by Hezbollah with hundreds of missiles and robots.

Since October 2023, lots of Israelis have been killed, primarily in the northeast of the nation. Hezbollah goals in Lebanon, including jet depots and other military system, have been targeted by the Army with airstrikes and ordnance fire.

However, some people believed that the markets were not at a level that Israel and Hezbollah could start a full-scale conflict.

12 children were killed on a soccer field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights in July as a result of a Hezbollah jet harm. In reply, three days later, Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s most top commander, the mind of its corporate system, Fuad Shukr, in an attack in Beirut.

Since then, the crime has gradually gotten worse. The IDF launched a&nbsp, proactive strike&nbsp, against Hezbollah weapon rockets that were poised to strike targets inside Israel on August 25 as Hezbollah was preparing to launch a big rocket attack on the northeast and center of the country. The Zionist security government announced in mid-September that its conflict objectives included the return of displaced people from the nation’s north.

Days after, in a very complex procedure, dozens of Hezbollah pagers exploded, killing lots and wounding hundreds of Hezbollah extremists. The following morning, Hezbollah’s community of walkie-talkies was targeted in the same way.

Israel has never taken any responsibility for either of these occurrences, but it is unconfirmed that they severely damaged Hezbollah’s authority.

Two weeks after that, on September 20, Shukr’s son, Ibrahim Akil, was killed in an Israeli attack in the Dahieh district of Beirut, along with dozens of top commanders of Hezbollah’s wealthy Radwan power.

Operation Northern Arrows

However, all of these actions were just the start of Operation Northern Arrows, which started on September 23. 1,600 Hezbollah targets, including hundreds of jet and missile launchers, were among the human population of Lebanon when the Israeli air force attacked.

Hezbollah has responded by firing missiles at Israel, most of which were intercepted by Israel’s air defense systems. It is estimated that Hezbollah had an army of 150, 000 missiles, including platform and long-range weapons. Many of these have then been completely destroyed by Israeli strikes.

Hezbollah also has precision-guided weapons and drones, but new Jewish attacks have eliminated many of Hezbollah’s chain of command and significantly disrupted its operating equilibrium. The military chain of command of Hezbollah has almost been completely destroyed as a result of the execution of many of its top leaders and then Nasrallah himself.

Israel has been deploying its defense in large numbers along its border with Lebanon. &nbsp, Photo: EPA-EFE via The Conversation / Atef Safadi

Tehran has not yet indicated that it will use force to support Hezbollah. The benefit of serving as one of the region’s most significant proxy may be questioned by this.

In this framework, some in Beirut, Damascus, Sana’a and Gaza are absolutely asking themselves then what is the benefit of being Iran’s messengers, if the latter leaves them only to encounter Israel.

Ceasefire doubtful?

In order to prevent this from turning into a wider geographical issue, the main hope for Hezbollah and Lebanon itself, into whose economic and political institutions Hezbollah has become so strongly rooted, is that the global community will order a stalemate on both edges.

The US and France have pushed for a 21-day stalemate. However, it appears that Israel is determined to keep the defense campaign against Hezbollah, just like it did its occupation of Hamas in Gaza.

The world is currently anticipating Israel’s troop deployment to Lebanon. Now, hundreds of people in the south of the nation have emigrated from the northwest. However, it is not at all sure that Israel wants to return to Syrian land despite a declaration from the IDF’s chief of staff, Maj Gen Herzi Halevi, that the Army is preparing to launch a surface activity in Lebanon.

In May 2000, the IDF pulled up from southern Lebanon to the international border after 18 years of occupation, and in 2006, it did the exact in&nbsp, compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

A successful ground war may be delayed for the time being given the success of its battle of airstrikes in eradicating Hezbollah’s military risk.

The US and other states, including the UK, have urged Israel to put a hold on any war intentions and agree to a peace. It presents the Biden administration, which is intensely conscious of the need to maintain both Jewish and Arab citizens onside, with a difficult decision.

However, it is difficult to imagine that Biden will put pressure on Jerusalem to prevent its fight against Iranian substitute violence, particularly during an election campaign and given the special relationship between the two countries.

Ori Wertman is exploration fellow, Faculty of Life Sciences and Education, University of South Wales

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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China’s lithography gains a glass half full, not half empty – Asia Times

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As Beijing tries to become more self-sufficient in high-end chip-making products, China’s most just disclosed progress in semiconductor printing technology has received widespread suspicion. However, it makes more sense to observe China’s progress than to let competitors be complacent about how much it has to go in the critical tech field.

On semiconductor production lines, printing equipment is used to move circuit styles from the photomask (template ) to the chip. China has overcome this technical obstacle in order to establish a self-sufficient semiconductor manufacturing sector that is immune to US-led restrictions.

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology ( MIIT ) announced earlier this month that it wanted Chinese chip makers to put two domestically produced lithography systems on a list of equipment.

One is a krypton fluoride ( KrF ) scanner capable of producing integrated circuits ( ICs ) with 130 nanometer ( nm ) design rules. A 65nm argon fluoride ( ArF ) scanner can produce chips in addition to the other. Details on throughput, alignment accuracy and the name of the manufacturer ( s ) were not provided.

65nm is a long way from the 28nm that China has recently targeted, and it is even further away from the 5nm it has allegedly reached using imported printing technology.

KrF and ArF refer to excimer laser light solutions with frequencies of 248nm and 193nm, both. KrF and ArF scanners are the two deep ultra-violet ( DUV) lithography systems that preceded the leading-edge extreme ultra-violet ( EUV) systems monopolized by ASML of the Netherlands. The frequency of EUV light is 13 nm.

Chinese semiconductor printing methods appear to be able to compete with older models from ASML, Nikon, and Canon. In ascending order of modern style, Canon, Nikon and ASML make most of the world’s Circuit printing techniques, with ASML extensively in the global market share result.

Canon supplies i-line and KrF printing systems to makers of less-advanced reasoning and storage chips, devices used in communications technology, power semiconductors used in electric vehicles and different applications, and Circuit presentation. The term i-line refers to a previous-generation technology that uses 365nm ultraviolet ( UV) light from mercury vapor lamps.

In the 1970s and 1990s, Canon released its first silicon printing system in Japan, and it quickly established itself in the markets for the i-line and KrF systems. Nonetheless, it never attempted EUV and failed to move to ArF at the turn of the century. Canon is currently developing a completely new systems called nanoimprint printing, which has not yet been made available for mass production.

The Japanese Ministry of International Trade in Industry ( MITI ) established the VLSI Technology Research Association (VLSI Labs ) in 1976 to create technology that could compete with the US semiconductor equipment market. Nikon was given the task of creating a system that could reduce the size of Circuit designs by ten.

Nikon, which like its colleague camera-maker Canon could render high-quality lenses but which also had detailed high-speed level positioning technology, produced a device that, in Nikon’s words, “was precise enough to reach a tennis ball with an arrow on the top of Mt Fuji all the way from Tokyo”.

The device was a step-and-repeat IC lithography system – a” stepper”, which stepped across the wafer one chip at a time, enabling higher resolution than the mask aligners they replaced.

Aligners, which use a mask that covers the entire surface of the wafer, were faster than the first steppers, but they were unable to keep up with Moore’s Law, which states that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every two years.

Nikon delivered a prototype in 1978 and shipped its first stepper for commercial use in 1980, a machine with one micrometer ( one micron, or 1, 000nm ) resolution and highly accurate alignment. In 1982, the first shipment to the US was made. By the end of the 1980s, mask aligners and the American companies that made them, Perkin-Elmer and GCA, had been largely displaced by Japanese steppers.

In the 1990s, steppers were replaced by step-and-scan systems– scanners, which expose only part of the mask as they move. A smaller lens was created as a result, which reduced both aberrations and cost while boosting resolution.

The history of Nikon’s product introduction shows the rate of progress:

1984: first i-line stepper ( 800nm resolution )

1988: first KrF stepper ( 500nm )

1994: i-line stepper ( 350nm )

1998: KrF scanner ( 180nm )

1999: first ArF scanner ( 180nm, reduced to 110nm the same year )

2004: ArF scanner ( 65nm )

The more developed of the two lithography systems announced by China’s MIIT this month appears to be comparable to those made by Nikon 20 years ago.

An ArF immersion scanner was created by Nikon in 2005 for mass production at 55 nm, with the first unit arriving in January 2006. In immersion lithography, the gap between the lens and the wafer is filled with water, which has a higher refractive index than air ( i .e., higher than 1.0), allowing for the creation of smaller features on the wafer. This method was also employed in the creation of 45 nm devices.

The most recent Nikon ArF immersion scanner’s resolution was 38 nm, which is as low as it goes according to the published specs. By 2012, that is down to. This machine had the ability to generate double-patterned ICs at 22 nm.

By 2024, Nikon was talking about meeting 5nm requirements with multiple patterning. Lam Research, a US manufacturer of semiconductor etching equipment, explains multiple patterning as follows:

” For decades, one of the major trends in electronics has been miniaturization, which has helped pack in more functionality, extend battery life, and lower production costs per chip. Up until recently, the semiconductor industry was able to scale lithography capabilities to shrink integrated circuit ( IC ) feature dimensions in response to consumer demands for smaller, more powerful products.

Although this method has been successfully employed for many years, modern, more advanced chip designs have smaller and denser features that necessitate going beyond the conventional lithography wavelength’s. Advanced patterning techniques are used to overlay multiple patterns of larger dimensions on these chips to achieve smaller and/or more tightly packed features. The most fundamental pattern pattern used is double patterning, which increases feature density by twofold.

Multiple patterning explains how Chinese semiconductor manufacturers can use ArF immersion systems purchased from Nikon or, more likely, ASML to create chips at the 7nm or even the 5nm process node, for example, the processors for the newest Huawei smartphones. The effective limiting for DUV lithography for commercial use is 5 nm.

ASML was founded in 1984. It played catch-up for 20 years, but in 2003 it released the first TWINSCAN ArF immersion scanner, a dual-stage system that exposed one wafer while the next wafer was being measured and aligned to achieve higher throughput and accuracy.

In terms of the value of systems sold, ASML overtook Canon and Nikon and then took an unsurmountable lead, with its market share for IC lithography increasing from less than 30 % in 2001 to more than 80 % in 2023.

In 2010, ASML shipped the first EUV scanner. By 2016, it was shipping batches of high-volume production machines. EUV lithography currently permits mass production at 3 nm, with the anticipated arrival of 2 nm soon and 1 nm by the tenth century.

ASML’s market dominance of the IC lithography market’s high end is apparent in its most recent sales figures: In the three months to June 2024, ASML sold eight EUV, 32 ArF immersion, 11 ArF dry, 33 KrF and 16 i-line lithography systems.

Nikon, which sold only four i-line systems in the three months to June due to the timing of deliveries, expects to sell five ArF immersion, six ArF dry, two KrF and 22 i-line systems in the year to March 2025– i. e., fewer ArF and KrF machines in a year than ASML shipped last quarter.

In the three months to June, Canon sold 10 KrF and 50 i-line systems, and it anticipates selling 54 KrF and 190 i-line systems in the year to December. In mature technologies, Canon is a high-quality, high-volume competitor for the Chinese, a challenging benchmark that is not subject to sanctions.

SMEE ( Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment Co) is China’s leading producer of IC lithography equipment. Founded in 2002, SMEE has developed lithography systems for front-end IC manufacturing and back-end IC packaging, power semiconductors, LEDs ( light-emitting diodes ), MEMS ( micro electro-mechanical systems ) and FPDs ( flat panel displays ).

FPD lithography equipment is primarily produced by Nikon and Canon, which are the main manufacturers of which ASML does n’t produce and which are not regulated by the US.

SMEE makes ArF scanners capable of producing ICs with 280nm, 110nm, 90nm and now, probably, 65nm design rules – which means that SMEE is probably the manufacturer of the lithography systems currently being promoted by China’s MIIT.

Since at least 2020, SMEE has been working on immersion lithography. However, it is premature to say whether a system that can produce ICs at the 28nm process node is either nearing completion or has been successfully developed.

In April of this year, reports indicated that another Chinese company, Naura Technology, had launched a lithography R&amp, D project using a technology called self-aligning quadruple patterning, but this has not been confirmed. According to DigiTimes, Nikon is” closely monitoring Naura, which produces etching and deposition equipment capable of 28nm production.

It’s possible that Naura is also developing the technology, but SMEE has probably found 28nm-capable lithography systems to be very challenging to produce. There is no way they would be able to accomplish it, and smaller resolutions almost certainly will follow. SMEE is reportedly working on EUV.

Now that the US has pressured the Netherlands to stop providing services to Chinese customers, the Chinese are feeling more urgent.

Although how successful this new sanction will be, how effective it will be will remain to be seen, it gives the Chinese an additional incentive to make more efforts to replace imported equipment.

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Will Nasrallah’s killing drive or deter a wider Mideast war? – Asia Times

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After the murder of Hassan Nasrallah, a long-time Hezbollah head, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared a big success and that it would” change the balance of power in the region for years to come.”

This may be going further than the circumstances warrant, yet. As a result of Netanyahu’s ordering the attack so he could say primary responsibility for the incident, Nasrallah’s death is undoubtedly a remarkable personal triumph.

And it goes a long way toward restoring the trust of the Jewish people in Netanyahu as a security guarantee for Israel. However, some inquiries are then arising from this course of action. Does Israel, for instance, build a earth war against Hezbollah in Lebanon?

If it does, Hezbollah would undoubtedly find itself at its weakest as a result of the Jewish assault on its walkie-talkies and pagers earlier this month, which left its communications system engulfed.

Additionally, Israel has murdered the majority of Hezbollah’s command government and eight of its nine most senior military leaders.

To maintain this is a profound win, Israel actually needs to follow up somehow. It needs to take the option of Hezbollah’s chaos to eliminate as much of the business and its army of 150, 000 weapons, missiles and drones as it can.

In addition, Hezbollah would undoubtedly be able to seriously hurt Jewish ground makes if they invade southern Lebanon, not least of which because it is said that the border region has an extensive hole system.

And Hezbollah is a huge business that claims to have as many as 100, 000 soldiers, while US intelligence believes it’s likely there closer to 40, 000–50, 000. Perhaps so, that is a fierce range of extremists.

Hezbollah, yet, does not want to get involved in more struggling with Israel at this stage, if it can prevent it. It’s important that, even after Israel’s most recent problems, Hezbollah has not been firing dozens of missiles, rockets and drones regular into Israel, which it is believed to be capable of doing.

May Hezbollah recover?

Without a doubt, this has dealt the business and the leadership of Hezbollah a devastating blow.

The first thing the team needs to do is re-establish its authority. There are two brands that have already been suggested: Hashem Safieddine, Nasrallah’s aunt, and Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s assistant secretary-general.

The new administration therefore needs to find out how deeply Israeli intelligence has penetrated Hezbollah. The death of Nasrallah and the pager-talkie-talkies ‘ blast demonstrate that Israel has incredibly sophisticated knowledge regarding Hezbollah’s inside operations.

Finally, Hezbollah has lost a lot of experience in the eye of the Syrian public. People in Lebanon who oppose Hezbollah’s status as a position within a state will now be yet more opposed because they will claim that it is not actually protecting Lebanon from Israel.

Hezbollah has never been in such a dire circumstance before. That’s why whoever succeeds may do a significant job of restoring its reputation as a fighting power.

Hezbollah is a significant business that is a significant component of Lebanon’s social scene, but it has the potential to re-establish itself. The Hezbollah-led alliance has a bloc of more than 60 chairs in the Syrian parliament – not a majority but substantial however. Additionally, it offers social services to the poor Shi’a people of southern Lebanon and southern Beirut.

The other big issue is whether Iran, Hezbollah’s defense backer, will respond to the shooting of Nasrallah.

Iran promised retribution in July when Israel killed Hamas political head Ismail Haniyeh, but it has not yet done so.

Ismail Haniyeh’s death march in Tehran in early August. &nbsp, Photo: Abedin Taherkenareh / EPA via The Talk

In Baghdad in 2020, the US killed Qassem Soleimani, the leader of the Quds Force in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, with more than a dozen missiles fired at two bases in Iraq cover US soldiers, and that was it.

In April, its response to the Jewish dying of some Muslim Revolutionary Guard officers in the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, was more powerful. Tehran launched about 300 rockets, drones and missiles at Israel.

But it also telegraphed its retribution well in advance, and Israel’s Iron Dome, with the help of US defense support, was able to avoid any major damage. These new reactions demonstrate that a larger war is currently not in Iran’s best interests.

What direction does the area take?

Hezbollah has few friends in the Middle East, primarily because it is a violent branch of the majority Shia religion, which has been perceived as opposed to the pursuits of more modest Sunni Arab states, including Egypt, Jordan, and the Gulf state.

In the end, there will be some unintended happiness among Sunni Arab leaders that Nasrallah has left because he was perceived as a potential source of great difficulty for the region.

Quickly, following the 2006 conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, Nasrallah was the most popular president in the Muslim world, according to opinion surveys. That did n’t last very long, but he remained influential across the region.

The other thing that would allow Sunni Arab states and leaders to relax about the removal of Nasrallah and the region’s ongoing conflict, including the conflict in Gaza and the Lebanon issue, is that all the fighting is causing outrage on the streets in nations like Egypt, Jordan, and others in the area, including Egypt. Sunni officials are irritated by this, making the area more fragile.

The Houthi rebels in Yemen and Shia militia teams with bases in Iraq are the only ones who are currently prepared to support Hezbollah. However, they are both a short distance away and are unable to directly impact the issue in the area.

It’s unlikely that Iran’s leaders will encourage these proxy groups to join a situation that could escalate into a situation that could escalate beyond the region because it does n’t want an entire war there.

So there are many athletes who want to bring some sort of normalcy back to the area. That includes the Biden administration, who fears that the Democratic voting in the November US national election will be divided by the ongoing problems.

This plays into Netanyahyu’s arms, as he is able to work independently of US attempts to grip him in. Whatever he does, he may continue to receive US defense support.

Ian Parmeter is study professor, Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, Australian National University

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Meta’s Orion smart glasses looking for next ‘iPhone moment’ – Asia Times

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Meta supremo Mark Zuckerberg unveiled Orion smart glasses, a new augmented reality ( AR ) prototype, at the annual Meta Connect developer conference.

These will be a new way to merge the true and modern worlds, ten years in the making, and not expected to be available on great streets until 2027. They will be controlled by the fingers and the eyes through a wrist-mounted neurological program.

What does this mean for how we interact with computers in the future of Mr smartwatches? We asked three technical experts at the University of Bangor, Peter Butcher, Llŷr sion Cenydd and Panagiotis Ritsos.

Why has Orion been like a professional problem?

Incorporating so far superior technology into something so compact poses serious technical challenges. This includes new holographic show systems, hands and eyesight monitoring, off-device processing, cameras, speakers and microphones – all while ensuring the device remains visually appealing and has good battery life.

Meta’s chief technical officer, Andrew Bosworth, recently captured the size of the problem by saying:” In buyer electronics, it might be the most advanced point that we’ve ever produced as a species”.

YouTube video

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The visual design is a huge obstacle. Combined reality headsets like as Meta Quest 3 and Apple Vision Pro rely on “passthrough” technologies, in which external devices capture real-time picture of the patient’s environment. This is displayed inside the helmet, with electronic components overlaid.

In comparison, Orion’s holographic forecast allows users to instantly see through clear lens, with images projected into their view. This has demanded substantial R&amp, D.

Are there other notable innovations?

The field of view, or the angular range that the user can see through the headset, is one of the key elements that affect how immersive a pair of mixed reality headsets is. The Magic Leap 2‘s 70° field of view, larger holographic AR glasses designed for businesses that are currently priced above US$ 3, 000, is the state of the art. They are produced by Magic Leap, a US business whose backers include AT&amp, T. and Google.

With Orion, Meta has achieved a field of view of 70° in a much smaller product, which is a grand innovation and crucial for Zuckerberg’s vision of an unobtrusive wearable device.

The wristband for the neural interface is also crucial. Users can control the device by making subtle finger movements like pinching and swiping their thumb against the index finger thanks to the device’s ability to listen to nerve impulses from the brain to the hand. Similar controls exist for older mixed reality headsets, such as Apple Vision Pro, but they rely on external cameras to interpret hand movements.

The benefit of directly tapping into nerve impulses is that the person only needs to consider the gesture at hand and may not even need to perform it in its entirety.

The technology also opens up brand new input methods, such as texting via mimicking handwriting, and is likely to mature before consumer-grade holographic displays become available.

Has Orion been more trouble than Meta expected?

Meta initially gave the Orion prototype only a 10 % chance of success, so it has exceeded expectations. While there is still much work to be done, particularly in reducing costs and miniaturizing components, Orion could eventually lead to a consumer-ready device.

Do you believe Meta will have a more affordable version by 2027?

Meta believes that the initial cost will be comparable to laptops or flagship phones. The new iPhone 16 starts at £799 ($ 1, 069 ). In a similar way to how VR headsets were introduced a decade ago, development kits were released toward the end of the decade that were targeted at early adopters and developers.

In the interim, applications that could eventually run on AR glasses can be developed using Meta Quest 3 and other mixed reality headsets like the Apple Vision Pro and other AR glasses.

Why are the Orion glasses still so expensive?

Because the majority of the hardware, including Ledos micro-display panels and silicon carbide waveguides, are n’t yet produced at scale, holographic AR glasses are still expensive.

Production constraints are reported to be causing Orion unit prices to close to US$ 10,000, but these components are crucial for producing high resolution and holographic displays. Even so, the battery life is currently only about two hours.

Could anyone possibly defeat Meta in the market?

Thanks to Meta’s multi-billion dollar investment in R&amp, D through its Reality Labs subsidiary, it has become a leader in virtual and mixed reality headsets, with a robust app ecosystem. However, Apple, Microsoft, Samsung and Google are developing similar technologies.

Microsoft’s HoloLens and [Snapchat owner ] Snap Inc.’s Spectacles series have made advances in AR, but results have been mixed due to limitations like limited field of view and poor graphics.

Orion appears to be ahead of technology for holographic displays. Apple, a different company to watch out for, is developing Vision Pro and looking into AR smart glasses.

Apple Vision Pro can also be controlled by finger movements, but the tech is less sophisticated. &nbsp, Photo: Chinaim via The Conversation

Will AR glasses change the world?

AR-enabled devices could cause an “iPhone moment” that forever alters how we interact with technology. As the next major computing platform, Zuckerberg sees them as a more natural and user-friendly alternative to smartphones.

The success of early mass-market smart glasses such as Meta’s Ray-Ban glasses, which allow users to make calls, capture videos and interact with Meta AI, hints that AR glasses could see widespread adoption.

Zuckerberg initially believed that holographic technology would be required for smart glasses to expand functionality beyond these Ray-Bans ‘ fundamental features. However, having the ability to incorporate an AI voice-powered assistant has made Meta realize that a new consumer product category can be created using smart glasses.

While the four-hour battery life requires improvement, the positive feedback from both reviewers and users, particularly using them on Instagram and TikTok, demonstrates the potential.

What will the future hold?

Reading messages, watching a virtual screen on the wall, playing games, collaborative work – all the things you can do with mixed-reality headsets, but shrunk down to a pair of glasses. When two people feel present in the same space, a friend will video call into your living room.

Virtual assistants can already use smart glasses to see what you see, hear what you hear, talk to you, and respond to questions and follow commands. This is even stranger. AI will eventually be able to appear in your vision and allow you to engage in natural conversation with it.

By 2030, AI will radically change the ways in which we interact with each other, our physical world and computers. Orion aims to prepare us for a world in which the physical, artificial and virtual co-exist.

Llŷr ap Cenydd is lecturer in computer science, Bangor University, Panagiotis Ritsos is senior lecturer in visualisation, Bangor University, and Peter Butcher is lecturer in human computer interaction, Bangor University

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Ishiba to bring cool, collected rule to Japan – Asia Times

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Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ) elected Shigeru Ishiba to be its next president and, by extension, the nation’s next prime minister.

Ishiba won the lead in his fifth attempt, beating right-wing firebrand Sanae Takaichi in the run-off, who had previously placed second in the first round of the party presidential election held on Friday ( September 27 ). In a particular period of the Chinese Diet on October 1, he is almost certain to be chosen as prime minister.

The thoughtful and sincere Ishiba is a social heavyweight who will probably stand out on the international stage. He was a previous defense minister. His quiet but uncompromising approach to the championship is suggested by his measured conversation and pleasant but imposing presence.

Ishiba, 67, was first elected to Japan’s House of Representatives in 1986 – nineteen times before Takaichi, who is 63. Ishiba, the 43-year-old brother of former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, is perceived as the child in the room, making it less likely that he will say or act rudely.

The question is how to build a social protection program in the region in a time when US power is declining. We should consider combining many of the relationships we have naturally.” We are facing numerous security issues, we will make sure to defend Japan,” Ishiba told the news media after winning. &nbsp,

Like cheerful Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Ishiba favors stronger relationships with brother governments.

Ishiba stated that a stronger deterrent to Chinese aggression as part of a group of Chinese politicians who traveled to Taipei in August to meet with Chinese President Lai Ching-te. He suggested that” Today’s Ukraine may be today’s East Asia”.

Ishiba has demanded an Asiatic NATO, but it seems that social security is seen as a way to keep a possible unreliable US firmly invested in security in the western Pacific in contrast to a US-dominated alliance.

The US and South Korea have thrown cool ocean on the idea of an Eastern NATO, but Japan’s diplomatic security ties with both, along with the Philippines, Australia and Europe, are expected to develop under Ishiba.

In addition, Ishiba has remained resilient in the face of hostility toward Japan during the US vote season, where leading Democrats and Republicans have both vigorously criticized Nippon Steel’s proposed acquisition of US Steel, frequently in stark political terms.

Ishiba late remarked,” I find what the United States is saying to be very disconcerting, making such statements or activities that may undermine the trust of its friends.”

The US has just started imposing challenges and deals on its allies, which is true both with Japan and NATO. I wonder if that is actually a good technique. For the Chinese government, it is extremely crucial to discuss these issues honestly, passionately, and naturally.

China’s Foreign Ministry stated that Japan’s selection of a new chief is a domestic issue but that it hoped Ishiba may “promote healthy and robust two-way relations.”

Although Ishiba is viewed as liberal in the LDP, a Chinese expert on international affairs said in an interview with China’s Communist Party-run Global Times that his policies are more sensible and mild.

He even wants to engage in protection dialogue and conversation with China to develop trust and remove doubts, the expert said.” He even wants to contain China’s military development.

Of the nine individuals in Friday’s LDP vote, Ishiba was the only one not to enter a US universities. He graduated rather from Keio, one of Japan’s major two private institutions, and worked at Mitsui Bank before transitioning to politicians. Unlike many of the various LDP candidates, he is no known for his English vocabulary skill.

Nevertheless, he brings a wealth of knowledge to the task. Ishiba served as director-general of the Defense Agency before it became a government and as secretary of agriculture, forest and fisheries, minister in charge of overcoming people decline and supplicant local business, chairman of the LDP’s Policy Research Council and LDP secretary-general.

Ishiba has been elected to the Diet 12 days, representing Tottori, a largely rural prefecture on the eastern Japan Sea coast. In light of Japan’s progressively debilitating demographic decline, he now has credibility as a real advocate for regional economic development.

Ishiba is seen as a relatively fresh politician, untarnished by the economic scandals that undermined support for Prime Minister Kishida’s unhappy administration Ishiba’s outspoken advocacy of “rule-abiding politics” and “unlimited transparency” should so serve him well at Japan’s next general election.

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Ishida must strike a balance of continuity and change – Asia Times

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Questions abound about how much Shigeru Ishida may stay in power and alter the plans and paradigms of his father, Fumio Kishida. His rise to prominence could have a significant impact on Japan.

While Ishida is widely expected to uphold several of Kishida’s initiatives, including on international relations and financial strategy, he may also implement large departures in private policy amid the nation’s some evolving and profound challenges.

The administration under Kishida’s eventually unhappy presidency had a focus on economic stimulus measures that attempted to balance growth and inflation, and was characterized by careful yet constant policy-making.

His administration aimed to upgrade Japan through online transformation while looking for ways to address socioeconomic issues brought on by a rapidly aging population and a shrinking workforce. Social happiness reforms, especially on pensions, were so integral to Kishida’s plan.

On international policy, Kishida prioritized enhancing Japan’s alliances, especially with the United States, while boosting Japan’s part in international structures such as the Quad. In an effort to strike a balance between financial objectives and security concerns, Kishida took a very measured political stand toward China and Russia.

His efforts to recover relations with South Korea and strengthen relationships with Asian nations, including Indonesia, were renowned political accomplishments.

In addition, during Kishida’s career, discussions about the creation of a NATO contact office in Japan, which reflected Japan’s growing integration with European security frameworks in response to local threats, were also a result of discussions.

Ishida’s strategy to home policy is expected to combine consistency with innovation. Financially, he will assuredly support Kishida’s fiscal signal policies, especially if the world economy remains weak amid slowing development in China and the US.

However, there is already rumor that Ishida may adopt a more conservative outlook on finances by implementing poverty actions and tax measures to lower the country’s high debts. Such a move would be a significant change from Kishida’s strategy and have considerable effects on Japan’s economic stability.

Ishida will also be under pressure to handle Japan’s growing gray people more fully. While Kishida’s income reforms provided a basic model, Ishida may need to develop more comprehensive policies to address labour shortages, possibly by encouraging more immigration or investing more in robotics and artificial intelligence.

On international plan, Ishida’s strategy to Japan-South Korea relations will be fast and carefully scrutinized. Considerable efforts were made by Kishida to ameliorate these frequently tense relations, specifically through cooperation on regional security issues.

Ishida is likely to proceed along this line, although he may even attempt to address unanswered historical disputes with a new perspective, which might ease persistent tensions and open the door to a stronger diplomatic partnership.

On Japan-Indonesia relationships, Ishida is expected to establish on Kishida’s efforts aimed at strengthening economic and coastal security cooperation. Given Indonesia’s fame in Southeast Asia, Ishida may seek to develop this young relationship, particularly in sectors such as the modern economy and infrastructure development.

This strategy not only offers financial benefits to Japan, but it would also help it strengthen its control throughout ASEAN by putting an end to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its rapid-growing trade ties.

To be sure, Japan-China relationships may present Ishida with perhaps his most varied and important challenge. The management of Kitshida’s government struck a delicate balance between maintaining economic ties, which were frequently complicated and stifled by the US-led software conflict and China’s efforts to impose sanctions, and addressing safety concerns head-on, especially those posed by the two parties ‘ territorial issues in the East China Sea.

As a result, previous defense minister Ishida may adopt a more confrontational approach to security issues, which could lead to further accelerated remilitarization of Japan while pursuing a more comprehensive security cooperation with other regional powers. At the same time, he will need to keep economic ties with China, Japan’s leading business lover, to maintain financial stability at a gentle juncture for the world economy.

Ishida’s approach to Japan-Russia relations, meanwhile, is expected to reflect Kishida’s cautious stance, particularly in the context of ongoing global tensions involving Russia, including in Ukraine. The two sides ‘ energy cooperation will be front and center, which Ishida might lower downgrade in favor of more stable and secure sources in the name of economic and supply chain security.

One of the most intriguing prospects for Ishida will be the potential for a more open relationship with North Korea. The Japanese government continued to impose strict sanctions and put new pressure on North Korea over its nuclear program and the ongoing thorny issue of Japanese abductees.

Ishida may seek diplomatic resumption, especially if Pyongyang offers fresh indications of a willingness to engage in dialogue, despite the likelihood that he wo n’t abandon these hard-line positions. This would be a significant change that would have significant effects on Japan’s role in East Asia and regional security.

Japan-United States relations will, of course, remain the cornerstone of Tokyo’s foreign policy. In light of shared concerns about China’s growing influence and growing aggression in nearby waters, the alliance was significantly strengthened under Kishida’s leadership.

In spite of who wins the US elections in November, Ishida is anticipated to maintain and possibly deepen the relationship, in line with the evolving Indo-Pacific strategy used by the United States to counterbalance China’s rise and power.

The potential opening of a NATO liaison office in Japan would bolster the country’s commitment to international security standards and help it more closely align with Western defense initiatives. In a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape with no end in sight, Ishida’s administration could use this relationship to strengthen Japan’s security posture.

On the global stage, Ishida’s participation in the Quad will likely remain robust as the grouping shifts toward more economic and wider-reaching security initiatives, perpetuating Kishida’s multilateral efforts to counter China’s influence in the region.

Ishida will likely uphold Japan’s commitment to multilateral dialogue while taking steps to improve global governance in an increasingly multipolar world in the Trilateral Commission, which includes Japan, the United States, and Europe.

Overall, Ishida’s leadership is poised to strike a delicate balance between change and continuity. Although he is expected to uphold many of Kishida’s policies, particularly those that are related to international relations, his approach to domestic issues and some international relationships may lead to new directions for Japan.

Ishida’s ability to strike a balance between continuity and change, addressing Japan’s immediate challenges, and positioning the nation in a more complex geostrategic and global environment.

Former Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat Simon Hutagalung He graduated from the City University of New York with his master’s degree in political science and comparative politics. The views expressed in this article are his own.

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Ishiba must strike a balance of continuity and change – Asia Times

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Assuming Shigeru Ishiba’s ascendance to the top of the leadership leaves a lasting impression on Japan, issues abound about how much he will stay in line with and alter Fumio Kishida’s plans and models.

While Ishiba is widely expected to uphold several of Kishida’s initiatives, including on international relations and financial strategy, he may also implement large departures in private policy amid the nation’s some evolving and profound challenges.

Kishiba’s finally unhappy administration was characterised by careful yet regular policy-making with an emphasis on monetary stimulus measures that attempted to balance growth and inflation.

His administration sought to modernize Japan by using digital transformation while looking for ways to address demographic issues caused by a rapidly aging population and workforce decline. Social welfare reforms, particularly on pensions, were thus integral to Kishida’s agenda.

On foreign policy, Kishida prioritized enhancing Japan’s alliances, particularly with the United States, while amplifying Japan’s role in multilateral frameworks such as the Quad. In an effort to strike a balance between economic interests and security concerns, Kishida took a very measured diplomatic stand toward China and Russia.

His initiatives to restore relations with South Korea and strengthen ties with ASEAN nations, including Indonesia, were notable diplomatic accomplishments.

In addition, during Kishida’s tenure, discussions about the establishment of a NATO liaison office in Japan and its increasing alignment with NATO were a sign of Japan’s growing integration with Western security systems in response to regional threats.

Ishiba’s approach to domestic policy is expected to integrate continuity with innovation. Economically, he will likely sustain Kishida’s fiscal stimulus policies, especially if the global economy remains sluggish amid slowing growth in China and the US.

However, there is already rumor that Ishida may adopt a more conservative outlook on finances by implementing austerity measures and tax reforms to lower the country’s high debt. A change of this nature would significantly alter Kishida’s strategy and have significant effects on Japan’s economic stability.

Ishiba will also be under pressure to address more directly the problems posed by Japan’s graying population. While Kishida’s pension reforms provided a foundation, Ishiba may need to implement more comprehensive policies to address labor shortages, possibly by encouraging more immigration or investing more in artificial intelligence and automation.

On foreign policy, Ishiba’s approach to Japan-South Korea relations will be quickly and closely scrutinized. Significant progress was made by Kishida in resolving these frequently tense issues, particularly through cooperation on regional security issues.

Ishiba is likely to continue along this line, although he may also attempt to address unresolved historical disputes with a fresh perspective, which might lessen tensions and open the door to a stronger bilateral partnership.

On Japan-Indonesia relations, Ishida is expected to build on Kishida’s initiatives aimed at strengthening economic and maritime security cooperation. Given Indonesia’s prominence in Southeast Asia, Ishida could seek to expand this budding partnership, particularly in sectors such as the digital economy and infrastructure development.

This strategy would help Japan increase its economic impact while reducing China’s Belt and Road Initiative’s rapid-growing trade ties and its potential economic benefits.

To be sure, Japan-China relations will present Ishida with perhaps his most multifaceted and crucial challenge. The administration of Kitshida’s government struck a delicate balance between maintaining economic ties, which were frequently complicated and stifled by the US-led tech war and China’s efforts to impose sanctions, and addressing security concerns head-on, particularly those posed by the two parties ‘ territorial disputes in the East China Sea.

Ishiba, a former defense minister, may thus adopt an even more assertive approach to security issues, which could lead to further accelerating Japan’s already robust remilitarization while pursuing even greater security cooperation with other regional powers. At the same time, he will need to maintain economic ties with China, Japan’s top trade partner, to maintain economic stability at a delicate juncture for the global economy.

Ishiba’s approach to Japan-Russia relations, meanwhile, is expected to reflect Kishida’s cautious stance, particularly in the context of ongoing global tensions involving Russia, including in Ukraine. Energy cooperation between the two parties will be at the forefront of the conversation, which Ishida might downgrade in favor of more stable and secure sources in the name of economic and supply chain security.

The potential for a more open relationship with North Korea will be one of Ishiba’s most promising prospects. The Japanese government continued to impose strict sanctions and put new pressure on North Korea over its nuclear program and the ongoing thorny issue of Japanese abductees.

Ishiba may seek diplomatic resumption, especially if Pyongyang offers fresh indications of a willingness to engage in dialogue, even though he is unlikely to abandon these hard-line positions. This would be a significant change that would have significant effects on Japan’s role in East Asia and regional security.

Japan-United States relations will, of course, remain the cornerstone of Tokyo’s foreign policy. In response to shared concerns about China’s expanding influence and rising aggression in nearby waters, under Kishida, the alliance was significantly strengthened through increased military cooperation.

In spite of who wins the US election in November, Ishiba is anticipated to maintain and possibly deepen the relationship, in particular in the vein of America’s evolving Indo-Pacific strategy to counterbalance China’s rise and power.

A NATO liaison office could be established in Japan to show its commitment to international security standards and help the country become more in tune with Western defense initiatives. In a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape with a view to strengthening Japan’s security posture, the government of Ishiba could use this relationship to leverage this relationship.

On the global stage, Ishida’s participation in the Quad will likely remain robust as the grouping shifts toward more economic and wider-reaching security initiatives, perpetuating Kishida’s multilateral efforts to counter China’s influence in the region.

Ishiba will likely uphold Japan’s commitment to multilateral dialogue while taking steps to improve global governance in an increasingly multipolar world in the Trilateral Commission, which includes Japan, the United States, and Europe.

Overall, Ishiba’s leadership demonstrates a delicate balance of change and continuity. Although many of Kishida’s policies are expected to be upheld, particularly those involving international relations, his approach to domestic issues and some international relationships may pave the way for Japan.

Ishiba’s ability to strike a balance between continuity and change, addressing Japan’s immediate problems, and positioning China in a more difficult and complex world.

Former Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat Simon Hutagalung The City University of New York gave him his master’s degree in comparative politics and political science. The views expressed in this article are his own.

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