North Korea in BRICS is a reach too far – Asia Times

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North Korea’s potential membership in BRICS, the bloc named for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa that is now expanding beyond that core deeper into the so-called Global South, presents considerable challenges and opportunities.

As an increasingly influential coalition representing major emerging economies, BRICS functions as a counterbalance to the Western-dominated global order with possible plans to launch its own trading currency to challenge the US dollar.

North Korea’s interest in joining BRICS signals an aspiration to emerge from international isolation, diversify and expand its economic partnerships, and enhance its geopolitical stature. At the same time, its possible inclusion could have severe repercussions for BRICS.

While North Korea’s accession could yield strategic advantages for both Pyongyang and the BRICS coalition, substantial obstacles ranging from North Korea’s nuclear program to economic and diplomatic impediments render the prospect precarious and unpredictable.

Despite its economic vulnerabilities as one of the world’s least developed nations, North Korea’s geopolitical relevance is indisputable. Its strategic location on the Korean Peninsula situates it at the core of East Asian security dynamics, with its frequent missile tests and saber-rattling against South Korea, Japan and United States directly influencing regional stability.

China and Russia, BRICS core members, regard North Korea as a buffer state that mitigates the influence of US-aligned South Korea and Japan. For them, Pyongyang’s inclusion in BRICS would enhance the expanding bloc’s footprint in East Asia, thereby extending its influence into a pivotal region.

For North Korea, joining BRICS presents the opportunity for enhanced legitimacy and potential alleviation of its current international isolation, particularly through engagement with non-Western powers.

Furthermore, membership could facilitate access to economic assistance, infrastructure development and trade partnerships via BRICS institutions including the New Development Bank.

North Korea’s bid could face significant political and diplomatic resistance from within the bloc itself. India, a pivotal BRICS member, maintains strong strategic ties with South Korea and Japan, both of which strongly oppose North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and brinksmanship.

Brazil, another BRICS founding member, has historically adopted a neutral stance but may encounter pressure from its Western allies to oppose North Korea’s inclusion.

Nuclear stumbling block

North Korea’s nuclear program represents a severe diplomatic challenge for BRICS. While Russia and China may exhibit a degree of tolerance toward Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, other BRICS members are likely to resist alignment with a state subjected to intense international scrutiny and punishment.

For decades, North Korea has faced extensive international sanctions imposed primarily by the United Nations, US and European Union in punitive response to its nuclear weapons program. These sanctions have significantly constrained North Korea’s economy, limiting its access to global finance, advanced technologies and trade opportunities.

Pyongyang’s economy is markedly centralized and dependent on a limited array of industries – predominantly the military-industrial complex – while simultaneously grappling with persistent inefficiencies in agriculture and food production. These challenges obstruct North Korea’s capacity to engage substantively in global trade and economic collaboration, with China serving as its principal lifeline.

North Korea’s economy ranks among the most isolated and underdeveloped globally, characterized by limited capacity for international trade and investment. Although China and Russia could potentially assist in integrating North Korea into regional supply chains, such efforts would necessitate substantial structural reforms in Pyongyang – reforms that the North Korean regime has historically resisted.

As such, North Korea’s internal economic imbalances, technological underdevelopment and inadequate infrastructure would present considerable challenges for its effective participation in BRICS’ economic initiatives, potentially generating greater friction than cooperation within the expanding bloc.

In addition to economic and nuclear concerns, North Korea’s human rights record is another contentious issue. The regime’s authoritarian governance, suppression of civil liberties and treatment of its citizens have garnered widespread international condemnation.

BRICS, which already faces Western-led criticism as an authoritarian club championed by autocratic China and Russia, would face heightened scrutiny and risk further compromising its global image by admitting North Korea. Pyongyang’s membership could thus undermine BRICS’s efforts to become a credible alternative to Western-led institutions like the G7.

Few strategic benefits

To be sure, North Korea’s membership in BRICS could yield significant strategic benefits.

For BRICS, the inclusion of North Korea could enhance the bloc’s geopolitical influence in East Asia, enabling a more active involvement in regional security matters. For instance, BRICS could seek to position itself as a mediator on the Korean Peninsula, providing a diplomatic forum distinct from Western-led, US-influenced initiatives.

Although North Korea’s immediate economic contributions to BRICS would be limited, the nation’s untapped natural resources, inexpensive labor and strategic geographic location represent potential opportunities for long-term investment and collaboration.

All in all, North Korea’s prospective membership in BRICS is a mix of risks and opportunities. While accession could afford North Korea economic relief, political legitimacy and a new pathway out of isolation, the nation’s nuclear program, economic underdevelopment and human rights record present considerable obstacles.

For BRICS, North Korea’s admission would pose significant risks to its global reputation and has the potential to incite internal divisions. As a course of action, BRICS should pursue cautious dialogue with North Korea, offering conditional membership that incentivizes economic reforms and a gradual diminishment of its nuclear program.

This balanced approach could enable BRICS to capitalize on North Korea’s geostrategic value while mitigating the risks associated with its controversial policies, positions and leadership.

Simon Hutagalung is a retired Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat. He received his master’s degree in political science and comparative politics from the City University of New York. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.

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Tokyo Swindlers: a fictional look at land-fraud scandals – Asia Times

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Tokyo Swindlers, a novel that is the basis for a new Netflix Japan series, is a contemporary Japanese crime thriller that, according to the publisher, unravels an intricate web of deception and greed inspired by recent land-fraud scandals. “Grieving the tragic loss of his family, Takumi is drawn into a real estate swindle masterminded by notorious land scammer Harrison Yamanaka. The target is an unprecedented $70-million property. Detective Tatsu, nearing retirement, discovers Harrison’s strange connection to Takumi’s past. As the high-stakes fraud unfolds, the convergence of motives leads to a shocking outcome in this intense game of deception versus truth.” Following is an excerpt republished with the publishers’ permission:

The property in question was a plot of land in southwest central Tokyo located near Ebisu Station. Its area was a little less than a tenth of an acre. The sales price of some 700 million yen had already been agreed upon with Mike Home. The price per tsubo [3.3 squre meters or 35.6 square feet] was just under 7 million yen, quite a bargain when one considered the per-tsubo market price in the area was over 10 million yen.

The Shimazaki house was a two-story vacant building constructed more than fifty years before. The trees and plants in the garden were unkempt and overgrown. Despite its universally desirable prime location in the heart of the capital, there had been no complicated circumstances regarding rights, as the antiquated edifice, unmortgaged, had been inhabited by a lone elderly person.

The owner’s unwillingness to sell the land notwithstanding, the property was constantly on the radar of real estate agents specializing in this part of the city.

The news that Ken’ichi Shimazaki had moved into a senior citizens’ home had not reached Takumi and his fellow swindlers until the end of the previous year, some six months later. Immediately they began scurrying about, making meticulous preparations and disseminating bogus information in every direction. Two months thereafter, they received word through a real estate broker that Mike Home was interested in buying the property.

Posing now as the seller’s agent, Takumi had launched negotiations, urging Mike Home to make the purchase, pointing to the substantial discount and hinting that there were many other potential buyers. Using a surreptitiously made duplicate key to show the property for inspection, Takumi was quickly able to conclude a sales contract and move toward settling the account that very day.

The real estate company’s major focus was on the development and sale of studio apartments intended for investment. Launched seven years before, it had grown rapidly and now had more than sixty employees. Originally a real estate brokerage, it had evolved into a sales agency and exclusive wholesaler. This was the first time it was to develop its own properties.

Tokyo Swindlers by Ko Shinjo, translated by Charles De Wolf. Shueisha, publication date November 12, 2024. Print $18.95, ebook $9.95

The goal was to be listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and undertaking in-house development was a steppingstone in that direction. With that in mind, Mike Home had for some time been looking in Tokyo for a suitable condominium site but had been unable to find one in the heart of the city, where competition was fierce and where there was already a surfeit of development. So, when news got out that Ken’ichi Shimazaki’s prime site in Ebisu was for sale, it was no wonder that Mike Home would be most eager to pursue the deal.

If, for example, one were to construct a condominium on the site – based on an 80% building-to-land ratio, 400% floor-area ratio, 45-foot frontage road, and maximum-permitted 130-foot height – one would likely end up with 300-square-foot studios for single persons as well as some thirty larger units for families, all conforming to local ward regulations, even including the common areas. Here where the market rental price was over 20,000 yen per tsubo, an annual rental income of over 90 million yen could be expected when the property was fully occupied, and, after deducting expenses, the annual rental income would settle in at around 80 million yen. Assuming a yield of 3.5%, the condominium’s appraised value would thus be more than 2 billion yen.

The president might well have been painfully aware of an either-or: all the various benefits that a signing of the contract would bring on the one hand versus, on the other, the losses the company would incur if the effort were to fail. The lack of any apparent sign of caution on his part concerning the confirmation of the documents’ authenticity strongly suggested a desire to avoid upsetting the would-be seller in any way that might cause him to cancel the transaction.

Takumi, who had unknowingly been holding his breath, slowly exhaled through his nose. At this point, all that was left to be done was to transfer the remaining funds.

As per the contract, this was a bilateral transaction between the buyer and seller. The balance of nearly 600 million yen – the deposit and the interim payment having been deducted – was to be transferred from Mike Home’s account to Ken’ich Shimazaki. Of course, the money would not be transferred to the account of the real Ken’ichi Shimazaki, who was utterly unaware that his house was being sold.

Through various tricks, including the forging of a driver’s license, Takumi and his team had set up a fictitious bank account, with different Chinese characters representing Shimazaki’s name. The down payment and interim payment had already been transferred to that account, all without arousing the slightest suspicion at Mike Home.

Ko Shinjo was born in Tokyo in 1983. He made his debut in 2012 with Narrow House, which won the 36th Subaru Literature Award. In 2020, Shinjo’s book Jimenshitachi – which has been adapted into Netflix’s live-action Tokyo Swindlers – was nominated for the 23rd Haruhiko Oyabu Prize.

Charles De Wolf, a resident of Japan for more than 40 years, is a translator of fiction and nonfiction as well as scholarly works. His English-translated works include In Pursuit of Lavender by Akiko Itoyama, ME by Hoshino Tomiyuki, and the forthcoming Eclipse by Hirano Keiichiro. He is currently a professor emeritus at Keio University in Tokyo, where he held faculty positions for more than 20 years.

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Philippines drops a Typhon missile gauntlet on China – Asia Times

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MANILA – The Philippines and China are staging dueling patrols and exercises this week in the South China Sea, the latest maneuvers in their ever-escalating maritime disputes. But recent moves on land threaten to tilt their tensions to a dangerous new level.

In what could evolve into a Cuban-like missile crisis, Manila recently announced it would “indefinitely” host America’s state-of-the-art Typhon missile systems, a mid-range weapon the US could bring to bear in any conflict with China over Taiwan.

Despite strong opposition by China, and initial denials by Filipino officials, there are rising indications that the Philippine military intends to keep the much-vaunted American missile systems on its soil for the long term, or even “forever”, as military chief Romeo Brawner recently quipped.  

As one senior Filipino official bluntly told the media, the Philippine government wants to give China “sleepless nights” by keeping the missile system on its soil.

The Typhon saga began earlier this year ahead of annual Philippine-US joint Balikatan exercises, the biggest ever staged.

In a “historic first”, the Pentagon deployed the newly developed missile system – capable of launching missiles including SM-6 missiles and Tomahawks over 1,600 kilometers (994 miles) – to mark a “significant step in our partnership with the Philippines.”

When China started to criticize the deployment, both American and Filipino officials were quick to downplay the move as a purely logistical exercise. In July, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi issued a strongly worded statement on the issue while accusing Manila and Washington of provoking a regional arms race.

China’s top diplomat reiterated the point during his recent trip to New York for the United Nations General Assembly, where he warned that US deployment of intermediate-range missiles in the Philippines “undermines regional peace and stability.”

During Yi’s conversations with his South Korean counterpart, Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul, in New York last weekend, the Chinese envoy reiterated that the deployment of any American weapons systems capable of striking China “is not in the interests of regional countries.”

Years earlier, China pressured South Korea against hosting America’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. Having ultimately failed to dissuade Seoul, Beijing now likely fears that Manila may seek to host yet another high-impact US weapons system.

In September, Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo said Yi expressed China’s “very dramatic” concern about the Typhon’s deployment to the Philippines during talks in Laos on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meetings with Asian and Western countries.

What makes the Philippine deployment particularly sensitive to China is its proximity to Taiwan.

Beijing was already peeved with Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s decision to grant US forces rotational access to its northernmost military facilities close to Taiwan’s southern shores under the two sides’ expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).

The deployment of key military assets to geographically dispersed locations across the Philippines fits with the US Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) operating concept.

As Asia Times correspondent Gabriel Honrada argued earlier in these pages, “The US can spread Typhon sensors and weapons across multiple EDCA sites, employ longer-range and unmanned systems and use resilient communication links to maintain coordination and adaptability in a contested environment.”

In the event of an all-out conflict over Taiwan, Philippine-based Typhon missile systems could prove singularly crucial since they would allow the Pentagon to hit mainland and maritime Chinese bases targeting American naval assets in the area.

The geostrategic stakes are clearly high for both superpowers. Earlier, in an apparent bid to tamp down diplomatic tensions with China, US and Philippine officials signaled that the Typhon missile system would be removed from the Philippines by September. But the latest reports suggest that the weapon system will remain until at least next year’s Balikatan exercises scheduled for April

While Beijing is primarily concerned with a potential confrontation with Washington over Taiwan, Manila is focused on its own strategic interests. Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) chief Brawner Jr has repeatedly turned down America’s offer of direct assistance amid recent tussles in the South China Sea.

At the same time, he has openly called for the long-term deployment as well as acquisition of advanced American weapons systems. Under the newly launched Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept (CADC), the Southeast Asian nation is seek to rapidly enhance its defensive capabilities vis-à-vis China.

“Not only the Typhon but also other missile systems kasi kailangan natin ng (because we need) comprehensive air defense and maritime defense systems,” Brawner Jr told reporters on the sidelines of the recent 5th Asian Defense, Security and Crisis Management Exhibition and Conference (ADAS 2024).

“ADAS 2024 provides an important venue for enhancing our defense and security capabilities by exploring cutting-edge technologies and fostering collaboration with international partners,” he added, signaling Manila’s growing appetite for not only hosting but also operating increasingly sophisticated NATO-grade weapons systems.

According to recent satellite imagery, the Laoag International Airport in Laoag, Ilocos Norte, which also happens to be the hometown of President Marcos Jr, is currently hosting the Typhon system. The northern Philippine base is less than a 30-minute flight away from southern Taiwanese cities.

“If ever it will be pulled out, it is because the objective has been achieved and it may be brought (back) in after all the repairs or the construction would have been done,” an anonymous senior Filipino official told Reuters. “We want to give [China] sleepless nights,” the official added.

“If it were up to me, if I were given the choice, I would like to have the Typhon missile system here in the Philippines forever because we need it for our defense,” Philippine top general Brawner Jr told media last week while emphasizing that he has not yet received a definitive response from the Pentagon.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

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Nobody talkin’ about an AI smartphone revolution – Asia Times

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Last year, Apple unveiled a new series of iPhones, as is customary at this time of year. The only thing that was promised to make these new gadgets appealing to us was AI, or Apple Intelligence, as they called it. However, customer technology’s global community has cooled down.

Over a hundred billion dollars were soon wiped off of Apple’s share price because the lack of enthusiasm from the public was so obvious. Fans of all new things technology, yet the Wired Gadget Lab podcast, did not find anything in the new features that would compel them to switch to the iPhone 16

The addition of a fresh lens lock button on the side of the mobile did not seem to cause much excitement, but rather the inclusion of a new camera shutter button. Something is obviously wrong if a box is a better selling level than the most gimmick-filled technology of the past few years.

The Media Copilot described Artificial as having passed what its “wondering period” as. We were pleasantly surprised two years ago when conceptual AI systems like ChatGPT, DALL-E, and others were able to produce clear writing and practical images from a few words in a text quick.

But then, AI needs to show that it can really be successful. Since their launch, the concepts driving these activities have become much more powerful – and rapidly more expensive.

However, Google, NVidia, Microsoft and OpenAI just met at the White House to explore AI system, suggesting these companies are doubling down on the systems.

According to Forbes, the industry is US$ 500 billion short of recovering the significant investments in AI hardware and software, and the$ 100 billion in AI revenue projected for 2024 is not even close to this figure.

Apple must also support the inclusion of AI features in its products for the same purpose that Google, Samsung, and Microsoft are doing it to give customers a reason to purchase a new system.

Strong market?

Before AI, the industry was attempting to spread awareness about the Metaverse and virtual reality, which probably peaked with the release of the Apple Vision Pro helmet in 2023 ( a product that, ironically, was hardly mentioned in previous week’s news ).

Tech firms needed something else to generate income after the Metaverse failed, and AI has come to be the new bright object. However, it’s still to be seen if users will adopt AI-based features like reading and photo-editing capabilities.

This does not mean that the current AI is ineffective. AI systems are used in billion-dollar market applications, in everything from online advertising to care and energy optimization.

Restaurant
Apple’s Physical Intellect allows the telephone lens to be aimed at things, like a cafe, to get information without doing a search. Photo: Heiko Kueverling via The Talk

Generative AI has also grown to be a useful tool for practitioners in a variety of areas. A study found that 97 % of software developers have employed AI tools to support their work. Some editors, visual artists, musicians and artists have adopted Iot tools to create content more swiftly and more effectively.

Despite attempts at AI-supported search proving to be prone to mistakes, the majority of us are not really willing to pay for a company that draws hilarious cartoon cats or summarizes text. Apple’s strategy for deploying unnatural intelligence seems to be largely a jumble of existing functions, many of which are now integrated into well-known third-party apps.

Apple’s AI can help you build a custom icon, record a telephone call, edit a photo, or read an email – beautiful, but no more groundbreaking stuff. There is also a feature called Reduce mode that is supposed to make you feel less unimportant and only through important notifications, but it’s anyone’s guess how well that will actually work.

The one forward-looking feature is called Visual Intelligence. Without performing a search on your part, you can use the camera to point it at something in the air and get information. For instance, you might take a picture of a restaurant sign and receive a phone message with the menu, reviews, and possibly even assistance with table reservations.

Although this is very reminiscent of the Lens in Google’s Pixel phones ( or ChatGPT’s multimodal capabilities ) it does point towards a future use of AI that is more real-time, interactive, and situated in real-world environments.

Apple Intelligence and the Reduce mode could change into what has been envisioned and demonstrated in research projects since the 1990s, but the majority of the time it has n’t developed into a real product category. This has been done since the 1990s.

The ironic part of all this is that Apple Intelligence is not yet really accessible for anyone to try, as the new iPhones do not yet include them. They might turn out to be more valuable than the lack of details seems to suggest.

However, Apple used to be known for only releasing products when they were fully and truly ready, which meant that the use-case was unmistakably perfect and the user experience was flawless.

This is what made the iPod and iPhone so much more appealing than the previous generation of MP3 players and smartphones. It’s anyone’s guess if Apple’s AI strategy will be able to recover some of the lost stock price, not to mention the hundreds of billions that they and the rest of the tech industry have invested.

After all, AI still has a lot of potential, but it might be time to step back and consider where it will actually be most useful.

Lars Erik Holmquist is professor of design and innovation, Nottingham Trent University

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Israel invasion could push Lebanon into total state collapse – Asia Times

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Some people have been worried for the past year that the conflict between Israel and Hamas will spread to neighboring nations and cause a damaging conflict in the Middle East. There is no denying that the conflict has now spread to Lebanon, despite the fact that there is still hope that the most bleak regional rumors wo n’t materialize.

The main characters are Israel and Hezbollah, the self-styled weight group-political group that is significantly rooted in Lebanon’s social structure, business, and much of its world. The main players are Israel and Hezbollah, the country’s northern and southern Lebanon.

In mid-September, Israel announced it was shifting its defence policy towards its northern borders, where 70, 000 persons had been displaced over the past month by missiles fired by Hezbollah. Yoav Gallant, the minister of defense, stated that its battle goals had changed to ensure that these citizens may return to their homes in health.

Israel claims that a large portion of the Hezbollah management has been eliminated as well as a significant portion of its military infrastructure following a weekend of missile attacks into Lebanon. All parties involved may face more difficult issues during this conflict’s next stage, which also poses a significant threat to the region and beyond.

The possibility that Lebanon could fail as a state if this war escalates is perhaps lost in the debates about whether Israel can defeat Hamas ( and Hamas in Gaza ), how Iran ( Hezbollah’s main supporter ) will respond, and who will ultimately prevail. And that serves no person’s objectives.

Lebanon is a fragile nation that has experienced devastating economic and political problems, fraud, human rights violations, and a collapse in trust between the government and society over the past ten years.

Its market is unstable, having not recovered from the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. The Palestinian economy was still reeling from the collapse of its economic structure in 2019 and the default on its intolerably high debt levels in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 crisis.

The skill of regular Palestinian citizens to provide for themselves and their families has been further hampered by world inflationary pressures and cost of living pressure.

In recent years, the nation has hemorrhaged its capital, and very few overseas buyers have the guts to take their money there. Per person incomes have decreased significantly, and they still stand at around US$ 3,300, along from around US$ 9 000 in 2018.

Lebanon’s economy has gone into reverse since the crisis in 2019, with gross domestic product ( GDP ) declining from$ 59 billion in 2018 to just$ 22 billion today. Nearly half of the population is now living below the poverty line, which is combined with inflation at a rate of 200 % and a 95 % loss of the Lebanese pound.

There has been a breakdown in waste disposal and electricity supplies ( Lebanon’s state power company struggles to provide even two hours of electricity per day ). Lebanon has a trade deficit of around$ 9 billion annually, and its reserves of foreign currencies are extraordinarily low. This has made it even more difficult for regular Lebanese to obtain the necessities to survive ( let alone prosper ).

Even a small war can have devastating economic outcomes that endure well after the conflict has ended. If history can provide any insight into the present conflict, we can anticipate a protracted and extreme conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, one in which Israeli troops will be stationed in Lebanon. This war is likely to completely destabilize the Syrian market, bringing the entire nation to the brink of collapse.

This has not been the case previously. Similar events occurred in the stormy early 1970s and the Syrian civil war that erupted between 1975 and 1990. Since the start of the civil war in Lebanon in 2011, there have been intolerable pressure being put on the delivery of goods and services there. The need for healthcare, education, resources and accommodation has far exceeded offer.

With a number of activities, including the 2016 EU-Lebanon Compact, financial assistance in the region of several billion dollars, the global community has assisted Lebanon in welcoming Syrian refugees.

However, the financial and material assistance provided was inappropriate. Lebanon has grown disturbed and strained as a result of having the highest refugee-to-citizen amount in the world.

A failed position?

As if the region’s political landscape of conflict and suffering were n’t bad enough, the country’s political landscape still ranks among the most fractious and contentious in the area.

In many ways, Lebanon has not for the past five years had a fully functioning collection of state organizations. The government may function completely due to intense social conflict and divisions between the political parties.

And with little assistance from the government, thousands of ordinary citizens are now facing serious threats to their lives and livelihoods as a result of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

In Lebanon, there have been displaced for up to a million civilians, and a lot of the country’s equipment and real estate have been destroyed. And yet to be completely successful is an Israeli floor invasion.

Poised: Jewish troops massing back of a possible floor invasion, September 30 2024. &nbsp, Photo: EPA-EFE via The Conversation / Atef Safadi

But there’s little doubt that one is on the method. By ensuring Hezbollah is no longer a feasible military threat, Israel intends to forever change the balance of power.

There are &nbsp, clear parallels&nbsp, between Israel’s 2006 invasion of Lebanon ( the 34-day war ) and the much broader 1982 war. The 2006 fight devastated Lebanon’s system, while the 1982 war lasted until 2000, leading to huge damage, hardship, insecurity and instability.

Lebanon’s recent conflict has the potential for a second civil war, to the extent that it could destroy it. This would provide no one’s attention. A volatile, devasted, and failing Lebanon will only have adverse effects on Israel and allies in the Middle East.

Just decline and damage may occur in Lebanon, the Middle East, and elsewhere if the Hobbesian logic of the powerful doing what they will and the poor suffering what they must is allowed to continue. It is crucial that purpose and purpose prevail, and that Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah’s conflict de-escalate.

Imad El-Anis is associate professor in foreign relationships, Nottingham Trent University

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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It’s becoming harder to get super-rich in China – Asia Times

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” To getting rich is glorious”. In the 1980s, this was one of the most popular phrases – formally, at least – to illustrate the attitude at the sun of the opening-up time in post-Maoist China.

China’s paramount chief of the time, Deng Xiaoping, apparently justified this unconventional situation for an supposedly democratic Marxist country by saying:” Foremost you allow some make money, then more likely follow”.

And earn income as well. One of the earliest example is Nian Guangjiu, the leader of Fool’s Melon Grains, who quickly transitioned from being a poor farmer to a rich entrepreneur. However, Nian’s story serves as a morality lesson for those who followed.

In 1989, he spent time in prison on charges of embezzlement and another offences, and his company was taken from him. To get wealthy in China was certainly possible, but it was a way that usually led to prison and perdition.

Despite this, China now has a shared happening with the established world: a group of fantastically wealthy people, and the importance of business people, frequently in the exclusive market, in generating this.

A billboard of Deng Xiaoping in a street in China.
A poster of China’s major president from 1978 to 1989, Deng Xiaoping, in Shenzhen. Photo: Eric007 / Shutterstock

There was only one US dollars businessman when Forbes released the first Chinese “rich list” in 1999, a Hong Kong mogul based on the island called Rong Yiren.

By 2010, this number had risen, perhaps by a liberal estimate, to over 60. And over the course of a decade, it rose to 389, a remarkable illustration of how far China had come since the Maoist government’s almost utter hunger.

The Hurun Report’s wealth tracker, which uses a different method for calculating and valuing assets, has expanded even further, suggesting that China currently has the most billionaires in the world ( 814 ), outpacing the US with 800.

Entrepreneurs may have been a useful indicator of China’s dynamic market, but they are also a missed reminder of how severe injustice is in China. In 2021, according to the Gini factor, an international standard for differences between the richest and poorest cultures, there were considerably more inequality in China than in the US or UK.

Since China’s present leader, Xi Jinping, came to power in 2012, his reported philosophy has been to” serve the people” and offer” common prosperity”. That means more money, but more evenly shared out. When I visited both Beijing and Shanghai in late August 2024, the phrase” Popular success” was almost universal.

However, the residual effects of the pandemic and the US’s continued tensions are already causing turbulence in China’s market. The government’s central bank has announced a significant stimulus package that has, at least, sparked a protest on China’s stock market because the slump has been significant enough to enable it.

Therefore, extravagant prosperity and billionaires who appear to be above the law are undesirable these days. According to the Hurun Report information, China lost about 155 members of this elite team between 2023 and 2024, along to its recent forecast of 814 entrepreneurs.

Money comes at a cost

Beyond the fact that China’s economy has been sluggish over the past two years and that everyone’s situation has typically become more difficult to live in, there are some other factors that contribute to this sweltering of the environment for China’s super-rich.

Some of China’s most well-known entrepreneurs, including Jack Ma Yun, the founder of Alibaba, apparently left after receiving a democratic backlash for making inflammatory remarks about the Chinese government and official authorities.

And another extremely wealthy people may have used these high-profile cases as a great excuse to avoid potential problems by emigrating from China.

Jack Ma Yun smiling while holding his hand over his face.
Jack Ma Yun stepped down as head of Alibaba, one of the world’s largest e-commerce businesses, in 2019. Photo: Richard Juilliart / Shutterstock via The Talk

While not in the course of the total richest of the wealthy, 13, 800 entrepreneurs departed China in 2023 according to one document, mostly to the US, Canada and Singapore.

The concerns over the economics and politics of their home countries appear to be the driving forces behind the individuals in this class. The fact that it is becoming increasingly difficult to obtain goods and cash out of China highlights how hard these individuals want to have a base elsewhere.

We should n’t overstate the problem, though. Although a little less wealthy than in the past, it is still acceptable in China. However, it’s probably preferable to be very close to the Communist Party in people and to be very close to it in order to become wealthy while working in high-tech industries that the government benefits.

For instance, Wang Chuanfu, founder of Taiwanese electric car maker BYD, has doubled his prosperity in the area of a few decades. According to Forbes, he is presently worth US$ 20 billion. Due to his company’s strategic and economic goals and products, he is still largely safe to live in Shenzhen, where he is already based.

Unfortunately, though, the richest man in China since 2021 is Li Shanshan, who produces extremely non-technical bottled metal waters under the Nongfu company. Finally, a key factor in keeping out of problems if you are super-rich in China is both to be in super-high or extremely low-technology companies.

Kerry Brown is professor of Chinese Politics, chairman of the Lau China Institute, King’s College London

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Israel has a history of failed invasions of Lebanon – Asia Times

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Israel has begun a land war of its north cousin in response to a large assault of Lebanon.

29 km from the Jewish borders, forces have entered southern Lebanon to try to elude Hezbollah. The alleged goal is to promote the gain of about 60, 000 Israeli refugees to their original homes in northern Israel.

Israel has previously dealt the organization a significant blow by killing Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah and a number of his top commanders over the weekend.

This has boosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s status, despite a majority of Israelis wanting to see his exit. Israel is now planning to carry out its Gaza activities in Lebanon in an effort to reorganize the Middle East in its own interests. But has it bitten off more than it can digest?

Ineffective trail history

Israel has been here before. In an effort to overthrow the Palestine Liberation Organization ( PLO ), it invaded Lebanon until Beirut’s capital in 1982. It was attempting to end the Palestinian opposition to Israel’s occupation of Gaza, East Jerusalem that had been present since the Israeli-Arab War in 1967.

Hezbollah was established with the assistance of Iran’s lately established Islamist government in 1982.

Israel authorized its Lebanese Christian friends to murder hundreds of Palestinians in Beirut’s Sabra and Shatila refugee camps. Additionally, Beirut’s offices had to be relocated to Tunisia, as a result.

In 2006, Israel launched strikes against Lebanon. Photo: AP via The Conversation / Lefteris Pitarakis

Finally, in response to Hezbollah’s strong weight, Israel established a security zone north of its border. Ehud Barak, the then prime minister, resigned in 2000 as Jewish casualties increased.

Hezbollah’s acceptance and power as a formidable democratic and military force against Israel and its allies were amplified by the pullout.

Israel invaded Lebanon in 2006 in a charge to sweep out Hezbollah. It failed to achieve its purpose. Hezbollah emerged victorious after 34 times of terrible battle and significant prices for both sides when the UN Security Council resolved to end the conflict.

Angry war

Netanyahu is comfortable in his victory this day. He also has the support of his radical ministries, especially those of national security, financing and defense. He depends on their help to maintain his home social standing.

Israel has greater power than it ever did before. In response to Hamas’s dying of more than 1, 000 Israelis and the kidnapping of some 240 Jewish and foreign nationals on October 7, it has demonstrated it in the Gaza battle.

In scorched-earth activities, the Israel Defense Forces have flattened expanses of the Gaza Strip and killed more than 40, 000 of its citizens – 35 % of them were children – with two million more having been repeatedly displaced.

In this, the Netanyahu administration has ignored the standards of war, international humanitarian law, a UN Security Council resolution for a peace, and the International Court of Justice’s caution against murderous activities.

Additionally, he has boldly deflected widespread worldwide condemnation of Israeli actions.

Buttressing his angry position has been the United States ‘ “iron-clad” defense, financial and economic assistance of Israel. Washington has only approved a additional US$ 8.7 billion assistance package in aid to Israel’s Lebanon plan.

Netanyahu has had no convincing reason even to be polite to Washington’s calls for caution or agreement.

Does this moment be unique?

Netanyahu’s trust is reinforced still more by Israel’s nuclear capacity. Israel apparently has numerous nuclear weapons for local deterrence and military dominance in the region, despite being undeclared.

Netanyahu and his supporters have argued that using excessive force in self-defense against the Iranian octopus ‘ “terrorist tentacles” ( Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah ) is acceptable.

Israel is now concentrating once more on the unfinished business of removing Hezbollah now that the US and a number of its regional and eastern allies have shared his position.

Hezbollah types a key component of Iran’s” shaft of weight” against Israel and the US. Netanyahu is aware that Iran’s regional and national surveillance system would collapse if the organization were to be destroyed. He is confident in the US’s aid in a situation like this, but he is not opposed to going to war with Iran.

Tehran may be expected to leave Hezbollah, but it also has various domestic and foreign policy objectives. Masoud Pezeshkian, the newly elected president of Iran, has vowed to ease the country’s political and social limits and to increase the living conditions for the majority of Iranians.

Pezeshkian is also committed to improving Iran’s regional and international relationships, including reopening negotiations with the West ( especially the US) regarding Iran’s nuclear program, so as to stop US-led punishment.

Pezeshkian appears to be supported by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s strong Supreme Leader, who has shown a determination to be rational when required. His foreign secretary, Abbas Araghchi, has stated that Hezbollah is competent of&nbsp, defending itself.

For today, Tehran’s strategy is to let Israel become trapped in Lebanon, as on past events.

Hezbollah is no Hamas: it is damaged but still quite well-armed and strategically placed. The organization will be able to continue to resist Jewish job indefinitely. The Jewish condition could be paying great human and material costs as a result, which would also stop some Israelis from moving back to northern Israel.

At this stage, it is important to consider two factors.

One is that after a year-long harmful plan, Israel also has never fully succeeded in extinguishing Hamas’s weight. In a earth war, battling Hezbollah might prove to be much harder and riskier.

The other is that, like Netanyahu, former US president George W Bush sought to rearrange the Middle East according to US political interests. He intervened in Afghanistan and Iraq under the pretext of waging a war against terrorism and encouraging democracy.

But America’s activities more destabilized the area. Since World War II, brute force has n’t been a useful substitute for diplomacy in resolving global issues.

At the Australian National University, Professor Emeritus of Middle Eastern and Central Eastern Research Amin Saikal

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Sinking feeling engulfs China submarine program – Asia Times

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China’s naval hegemony ambitions were undermined by the new falling of its most advanced nuclear underwater at a Wuhan port, which exposed critical weaknesses in its protection abilities as a result of an extreme defense buildup and rising sea tensions with the United States and its Pacific allies.

Last month, multiple media outlets reported that China’s most advanced nuclear-powered attack submarine ( SSN), the first of the new Zhou class built by China State Shipbuilding Corporation ( CSSC), sank while docked at the Wuchang shipyard, according to US defense sources.

Cranes were spotted by satellite imagery at the wharf, which analysts believe were used to retrieve the submerged vehicle by early June, followed by their discovery. The US Department of Defense ( DOD ) confirmed the incident, marking a potentially significant setback in China’s bid to close the gap with US naval dominance.

The event raises concerns about China’s education standards, equipment value and internal transparency within its security industry, which has long been affected by corruption. The event has not received any comments from the Chinese authorities. At the same time, the submersible may be salvaged and repaired, although difficulties are expected.

The US might gain a semblance of benefit in the underwater world due to the ship’s demise, which would be crucial for any possible conflict with Taiwan. China, yet, continues to develop its submarine features, apparently recently receiving help from Russia.

Although there are n’t many details about the Zhou-class SSN, it appears to be an evolution of earlier Chinese nuclear submarine designs. Defense News reported in May 2022 that satellite imagery had revealed a new class or subtype of a Chinese nuclear-powered attack submarine, which might be equipped with advanced stealthy propulsion and vertical launch system (VLS ) cells for cruise missiles.

According to Defense News, the submarine has specific green patches on its deck, a cruciform steering arrangement, and a potential veiled propulsion system, which suggests pump-jet technology. It notes that this coincides with China’s continued research into such engine systems, enhancing secrecy and functional capabilities.

The cause says that the ship’s style, closely resembling the Model 093 Shang class, indicates it may be a development of this class, perhaps the Model 093B. It mentions that the ship’s capabilities, including possible land-attack and anti-ship missions, meet into China’s method for long-range offensive hit capabilities, targeting US Navy assets and distant property targets like US bases on Guam.

Malte Humpert explains in a GCaptain article last month that the mishap was most likely brought on by a lack of administrative and technological experience as well as the combined effects of small complacency problems in explaining the contributing factors. According to Humpert, China’s tight vertical chain of command likely contributed to these issues, with permission taking precedence over adaptability and empowerment.

China’s increased underwater production and marine modernization efforts, which are consistent with the latest setback, are continuing to close the US-China’s maritime balance.

Alexander Palmer and other authors mention China’s increased submarine production capabilities in a report released in June 2024 for the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) think tank, which highlights its ambition to match or surpass the US in undersea warfare capabilities.

According to Palmer and another, China has accelerated its manufacturing plans, including through the development and construction of superior nuclear-powered boats. They point out that China’s marine modernization is moving more quickly than the US Navy’s work on submarines.

The People’s Liberation Army-Navy ( PLAN ) has a focus on both conventional and nuclear-powered submarines, according to the authors. They mention China’s efforts, including expanding its SSN fleet, which is crucial for both its sea denial and proper deterrence goals.

Palmer and others note that while China’s increasing submarine presence poses a potential threat to US operations in the Indo-Pacific place, the country still has a competitive advantage in underwater warfare.

But, corruption within China’s defence industry, particularly in manufacturing, significantly challenges its ambitious marine modernization efforts, undermining the quality and reliability of its rapidly expanding submarine fleet.

In a 2021 article in the peer-reviewed Journal of Humanities, Arts, and Social Sciences, Yang Yi mentions that corruption in China’s defense industry has become a pressing issue that is deeply ingrained within the structure of state military enterprises.

Yi asserts that since the 1980s, China’s transition from a planned to a market economy, particularly in military enterprises, has fostered corruption. He mentions that this corruption is brought on by monopolistic control, a lack of accountability, and intertwining corporate and political power.

He claims that senior executives in defense companies frequently abused their positions to extort money from the government, as evidenced by cases like those involving Anhui Industrial Group and AVIC Ltd, where officials were discovered to have manipulated company assets for personal gain.

According to Yi, a central issue is the “dual role” system, in which company executives also serve as Communist Party officials, creating conflicts of interest and making oversight difficult. Additionally, he claims that the secrecy surrounding military contracts and the absence of fierce market competition have increased corruption.

While he mentions that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption campaign has resulted in numerous convictions, systemic issues, such as the intertwining of relationships ( guanxi ) and a lack of effective governance reforms, continue to hamper efforts to eradicate corruption in China’s defense industry ​.

China’s naval modernization efforts are susceptible to a lack of corruption in Chinese shipbuilding companies. The issue raises questions about the reliability and quality of the ships being produced for the navy.

China’s defense sector struggles with corruption, but the US struggles to build its submarine fleet with industrial and workforce limitations. These problems could put the US in the same position as China, leaving it with shoddy, subpar warships plagued by safety and reliability concerns.

Jerry Hendrix makes a significant challenge for the US submarine production base in a 2024 American Affairs article, primarily as a result of supply chain disruptions and workforce shortages.

Hendrix says the US Navy’s ambitious plans to expand its submarine fleet, including Virginia-class attack submarines and the Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines, are hindered by a lack of skilled labor and critical components.

He points out that the Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated these issues, causing delays and increasing costs. Additionally, he says the US industrial base’s capacity is strained by the simultaneous need to maintain and upgrade existing submarines.

USNI News reported last month that there were serious concerns about the workmanship of US Navy subs and aircraft carriers. Concerned about the potential effects on national security and operational readiness, USNI mentions that several vessels have discovered critical welding flaws and defective parts.

The source mentions that the USS Delaware, a Virginia-class submarine, and the USS Gerald R Ford, a Ford-class aircraft carrier, are among the affected vessels. Previous investigations have identified a number of issues with welding quality, including improper welding techniques and the improper use of wrong materials in US warships.

The US Navy, according to USNI, has started a thorough review of its quality control procedures and is working closely with contractors to address the issues in response to those findings.

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Stocks fall, yen rises as Ishiba takes helm in Japan – Asia Times

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Sanae Takaichi, a protégé of former prime minister Shinzo Abe and a supporter of his stock market-friendly Abenomics, won the Liberal Democratic Party’s ( LDP ) first-round presidential election on Friday, with support from stock market investors and currency traders.

In that first round, Takaichi received 181 votes, followed by Shigeru Ishiba with 154, Shinjiro Koizumi ( backed by ex-premier Yoshihide Suga ) with 136 and six other candidates who lagged far behind. Financial experts, who had ranked Takaichi as their top selection in an Asahi paper surveys, celebrated in progress.

The Nikkei 225 rose 1, 959.30 items, or 5.2 %, in two weeks to crest at 39, 829.56 on Friday afternoon after the first-round voting. But buyer hopes were dashed when Ishiba won the run-off, 215 to 194, to be party chief and almost surely Japan’s future prime minister.

The Nikkei 225 Futures index dropped about 6 % in the after-hours session on Friday. The Nikkei 225 itself lost 1, 910.01 points, or 4.8 %, on Monday ( September 30 ), falling back to 37, 919.55.

Takaichi publicly declared her antagonism to higher interest rates, endearing herself to stock market investors. She favors monetary easing and stronger fiscal stimulus, much like her later coach Abe.

She said, “Economic development comes first and foremost, and that’s what people are shocked by the price of tomatoes and almost everything else these time.”

Ishiba, on the other hand, supports Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s scheme of gradually raising costs to maintain the yen, which had been dropping like a stone, and tame prices.

Ishiba added that he would think about raising corporate and financial money fees, which may improve the taxation system in Japan and lessen its enormous government deficit.

Soon after Ishiba’s triumph was confirmed, the yen jumped from 146.2 to 143.3 to the penny. It therefore continued to rise, reaching 141.65 on Monday.

The share prices of Chinese manufacturers, on the other hand, were pounded. Toyota, which was up 2.0 % on Friday, dropped 7.6 % on Monday. With the notable exception of bankers, which may do nicely as interest rates rise, nearly every industry was over.

The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose 0.045ppts to 0.85 %. The BOJ’s policy rate is 0.25 %.

Financial business owners may initially be disappointed, but Ishiba is supported by Chinese companies. The president of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry described Ishiba as” a competent policymaker who has addressed numerous obstacles head-on,” as reported by Nippon Television.

The Chamber of Commerce, like Ishiba, is dedicated to the advancement of regional economy and the support of small and medium-sized businesses.

The chairman of Keidanren ( Japan Business Federation ), said that Ishiba is” the right leader to drive forward transformation” in the current challenging environment. The tone of Japan Inc. is typically referred to as Kaidanren.

Furthermore, an Asahi poll showed Ishiba to be the most popular candidate among the general public, supported by 26 % of respondents compared with Takaichi’s 11 %.

In the end, the LDP opted for practice and expediency over a rehashing of financial plans that were developed over a decade ago for a unique financial period. At a public vote that Ishiba intends to call on October 27, the LDP’s option may be tested.

Stock market experts chose Takaichi over the LDP debate’s first-round results, failing to consider where former prime minister Suga did vote Koizumi’s support in the two-candidate run-off.

Looking for short-term profits, they fell for Takaichi’s go-for-growth repeat of Abenomics. However, both Ishiba and the general public prefer Ishiba. As the LDP’s trust recovers among voters, the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party is in a hard place.

Following this poet on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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China is winning the race to net zero – Asia Times

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China is winning in the battle for fresh power.

Over the past five years, it has spent ten days more on clean power than either the US or Europe. It dominates the rapidly growing renewables manufacturing market, producing 90 % of all solar panels, over 70 % of all lithium batteries and 65 % of all wind turbines.

That’s a pretty wise move. There is no evidence, according to our new research, that solar and wind cannot maintain their current impressive growth rates. Renewables may be a multi-trillion-dollar worldwide market in the near future.

The eye-watering investments of the US’s Inflation Reduction Act ( IRA ) and the European Green Deal, which will each cost US$ 1 trillion over the next ten years, could close the gap in terms of their clean energy deployment, but they are unlikely to reverse China’s dominance.

China now processes the majority of the materials used in clean energy sources and has a sophisticated manufacturing center that is more suited to increase production in response to the rising demand. China’s Tongwei thermal production plant, for instance, was single-handedly meet 10 % of the 2023 worldwide solar market demand.

And some of the newest Foreign factories are flexible. Another one or two of these factories may be constructed fairly quickly if demand increases, increasing costs and increasing scale.

To know what is driving this amazing growth in China at a city levels, we canvased expert opinions from officials, scientists, economy and natural parties in two leading Chinese places: Beijing and Hong Kong.

As one participant in our study summarized, in both cities the choice of renewables policies is influenced by factors including “alignment with the regional plan, economic costs, simplicity of application, and the accessibility of co-benefits”.

China’s commitment at the 75th UN General Assembly to reach net zero emissions or carbon neutrality by 2060, a position where any carbon pollution are equal to the amount of carbon being emitted from the environment.

This top-level mandate is accelerating cities toward their personal carbon neutrality goals, including Hong Kong’s goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050.

Solar appear to be popular in China across all levels of government. High-priority techniques at the city level were deemed to be utilizing the worldwide cost reductions of solar energy and accelerating the electrification of transportation.

In contrast, for Beijing and Hong Kong at least, alternatives like capturing carbon from fossil fuel usage and storing it underground were seen as decisions for state officials, and only necessary for the “last 8 % to 10 % of hard-to-abate emissions”.

Huge orange robot arm lifts big new blue solar panel in brightly lit factory
The world’s largest renewable panel producer is China. Photo: IM Imagery / Shutterstock via The Talk

Biofuels are among China’s net zero methods, along with significant investments in alternative clean systems like carbon capture on fossil fuel plants and atomic energy.

The US is building numerous multi-billion money facilities to generate hydrogen from renewable energy and carbon capture, and it has low gas, much of it. Additionally, both the US and Europe have a respectably longer history of nuclear power.

China is investing in these other systems, but no almost with the same vigour as solar.

In addition to our previous research, we discovered that renewable energy and electricity of transportation are becoming increasingly attractive investments for capital decision-makers in China because they are low cost, comparatively low risk, and have the potential to produce consistent emissions reductions at a rapid rate. These characteristics enable them to be potent agents of change.

Runaway decarbonization

Our socio-economic systems have sensitive intervention points ( Sips ) that can stop runaway decarbonization, just as the climate system has tipping points that can cause runaway climate change.

Sips enable a moderate policy intervention to generate transformational change and outsized results via “kicks” ( actions that trigger a positive feedback dynamic, such as learning-by-doing with renewables ) and” shifts” ( fundamentally altering the system to generate dramatic change, such as the UK Climate Change Act ).

Our prior research on Sips demonstrated that renewable energy and electrification of transportation are highly valued as “kick” Sips because they have high learning rates: the cost savings are lower and the demand is higher.

Why some technologies have such high learning rates while others do n’t, according to an illogical magic. These learning rates, once established, turn out to be persistent and quite predictable. We think that modularity, mass production, and mass appeal are all crucial elements in high learning rates.

All of these ingredients are present in solar, wind, and batteries, but particularly solar. You can put a single cell on your wristwatch, build a large solar farm, and everything in between. Their technological progress lies in manufacturing and mass production, after which it is virtually plug-and-play to deploy them.

And most people view solar and wind favorably more than alternatives like nuclear or carbon capture.

Lessons from two cities

What could countries like the UK, that do n’t have China’s manufacturing base, do to stay in this clean energy race? The research group on climate econometrics at the University of Oxford has demonstrated how five policy changes could help the UK return to its climate pledges.

These proposals include triggering both kicks and shifts to promote a sizable expansion of renewable energy, such as utilizing electric vehicles as a network of storage units and establishing more vertical and underground farms in inner cities.

There are currently less than 26 years until net zero by 2050. We think that the most effective green transition policies will make use of” Sips-thinking” to accelerate progress as urbanization quickly increases and more cities reveal their net zero plans.

Matthew Carl Ives is senior researcher in economics, University of Oxford and Natalie Sum Yue Chung is PhD candidate, Center for Policy Research on Energy and the Environment, Princeton University

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