Australia’s military as a force for sexual abuse – Asia Times

In their most recent book, the first independent investigation into military administrative abuse in the American Defence Force, Ben Wadham and James Connor explain that “participants expected the costs of war, but they were not prepared for the prices of service.”

Warrior, Soldier, Brigand draws on interviews with almost 70 victims and analyses every review and investigation into military society ( 35 in full ) since the Vietnam War.

It’s a heartbreaking accounts of more than a century of common administrative misuse in Australia’s military forces. Brutality was carefully inflicted on young recruits, who were beaten, violated and humiliated under the justification of “bastardization”. In a hypersexualized culture, sexism and gender-based crime were widespread.

Women were constantly at risk of sexual abuse from their bosses and peers. This misuse was often compounded by a” next assault”, where patients were punished for reporting, with managerial abuse and “mob fairness”.

The terms “warrior, soldier, brigand”, which describe different military identities, are contested ( as the authors concede ). The Brereton review, which found” reliable” data to indict 25 current or former American special forces personnel in the immoral dying of 39 people in Afghanistan, also found that alleged war criminals self-identified as “warrior champions”.

However, these terms are not used by the authors to explain their findings. They use the key values they identify in Australian military culture: martial, fraternal and exceptional. These values, they show, are twisted into an obsession with violence, exclusivity and elitism within the Australian Defence Force.

The book begins by outlining the” character of military institutional abuse” before focusing on different kinds of abuse in three eras: bastardization ( 1969–87 ), gender-based violence ( 1987–96 ), and administrative abuse and military justice reform ( 1996–2011 ). This violence, the authors write, serves to maintain the military institution.

The Australian Defence Force’s cultural analyses from 2011 to 2022 are the focus of the final two chapters. They provide insight into survivors ‘ experiences of abuse as well as how patterns of abuse continue to exist today. Finally, the book explores the ethicalness of international organizations like the Australian Defence Force.

Hazing or torture?

Bastardization is described as a form of fraternal violence. It brutalizes those perceived to be inferior to foster a brotherhood that is “exclusive, defensive, and aggressive in sustaining its dominance”.

The authors trace the origins of bastardization to “fagging” at British private schools, a custom that used older boys to treat younger boys as servants and obediently humiliated them. Similar practices immediately emerged when the Royal Military College was established at Duntroon in 1911.

Bastardization is based on the idea that separating people allows them to be reunited as a whole. These hazing rituals foster lifelong bonds between the perpetrators:” As young men advance in rank and status, their brotherhood extends to ADF leadership and governance.”

The details of bastardization are horrific. Many times I believed the term” torture” would have been more appropriate to describe the physical, sexual, and psychological abuse Australian service personnel were subject to by one another.

Collective hazing rituals included being tied to moving vehicles, covered in foul chemicals, forced to eat bodily waste, thrown off ladders and tables with fire hoses, and belted with knotted wet towels and belts. Blanket bashings, sleep deprivation and gang rape were described as routine.

Sexual violence was particularly pronounced. Basetardization is “heavily invested in certain body parts,” including forcing victims to sex with superiors, injuring genitalia, and penetrating body parts with objects. According to Wadham and Connor, ADF members must” choose between being a victim or an offender” because they frequently “escape being the victim of violence.”

The authors excluded “lower levels of bastardization” from their study because” they are generally intended for training”. In this sense, the book parallels the Brereton report, in which only clear-cut cases of war crimes were examined and “fog of war” incidents were excluded.

Yet, just as examining “fog of war” incidents reveals how deliberate war crimes were disguised as legitimate operations, examining how these “lower levels” of violence developed, operate, and are justified would reveal how brutality evolved to become standard practice in ADF training.

General Angus Campbell, the head of the Australian Defence Force, presents the Brereton Report findings in Canberra. &nbsp, Image: Mick Tsikas / AAP via The Conversation

Date rape, morning porn and ‘ survivor sex ‘

In the 1980s, women constituted 6.5 % of the ADF. By the 1990s, that percentage had nearly doubled, and today, women make up around 20 % of the Australian military.

Sexual violence against women was becoming more prevalent in the ADF as the gender dynamics changed. Wadham and Connor argue the growing presence of women intensified the sexualized culture of the military to reiterate the “white, hypermasculinist” fraternity.

A method of humiliation and reputation destruction was used during the date rape. Sexual assault was often done by superiors, in view of other serving members, and always followed by a” code of silence, victim-blaming and discouragement from commanders and military police”. One interviewee sought support after being assaulted, but was warned by the military psychologist:” Defense does n’t look fondly on people that see a psychologist”.

Some women were coerced into” survival sex” in exchange for protection due to constant threats and acts of violence from peers. In one of the book’s most heartbreaking testimonies, a young aviator was forced into sleeping with her sergeant for years to stop other abuse. Then I learned that he was actually responsible for the years-long stalking and sexual assault that had taken place.

A deeply misogynistic culture supported sexual violence against women. Harassment of women was a “daily occurrence” in the 1980s. By the 1990s, women reported practices such as “pornos in the mornos” – watching porn at morning tea in communal spaces.

Harassment and intimidation continue to this day: in 2018, one woman claimed she was” choosing not to eat, not go out, not do any sites” to avoid the executive officer who was constantly harassing her. When she reported him, she was informed that” I would have had a better case if I had allowed it to advance to rape.”

More than 300 abusive terms that reduced women to literal sexual objects were included in a 1993 book of cadet slang, according to Wadham and Connor. These included:” a body to wank into, cum bucket, fuck bag, life support system for a cunt”. This language was taught daily and was steeped in the culture from the top down.

One veteran claimed that her instructor “would talk about how to get the daughter thrown in for a dollar and where to get the cheapest sex in Asia.” The authors analyze the function of banter in the military, explaining that “lingo” works to” create a shared culture” but can also be used to “target, exclude, belittle”. The sexualized “banter” was frequently used to stifle women and was” the first step in creating cultures of abuse and violence” ( p. 1 ).

The book’s focus on gender dynamics in the military is a key strength. However, race is not afforded the same scrutiny.

Wadham and Connor stress the whiteness of the Australian military identity and acknowledge the deaths of non-white soldiers ( suicide and murder ). However, more research on the racial dynamics of institutional abuse would have helped, especially given the strategic significance of ADF-placed cultural diversity.

Punishing the victims

The ADF’s prevalence of administrative abuse, known as a” second assault” after reporting physical or sexual abuse, is one of its most important findings. This intentionally plagiarizes the hierarchy and disciplinary frameworks in order to punish those who violate silence.

This top-down abuse is often reinforced with “mob justice” in the form of alienation, harassment, sabotage and physical violence by peers. Anyone who has the guts to speak out about institutional violence is intended to be broken by administrative abuse. It demonstrates institutional aversion to handling other forms of abuse.

The overwhelming evidence of administrative abuse in the book contradicts the ADF’s claim that it is promoting cultural change and weeding out “bad apples.”

Wadham and Connor show that the ADF has overlooked, condoned, minimized and covered up widespread institutional abuse” for more than a century”. They come to the conclusion that the ADF simply “tinkers around the edges” when responding to scandals. Efforts at redress, they conclude, were poorly implemented.

The Defence Abuse Task Force response, for instance, was described by the ADF Association’s Victims of Abuse as “more concerned with keeping a lid on things than fully supporting victims” after the Skype sex scandal in 2011.

Ongoing efforts toward military reform, they say, are more about” slowing scrutiny and defusing critique” than addressing the core problems. Meanwhile, they show that cultures of bastardization, gender-based violence and mob justice persist at Duntroon.

Former ADFA cadets Dylan Deblaquiere and Daniel McDonald (center ) both left the ACT Supreme Court with their legal team after being found guilty in the ADFA Skype sex trial. &nbsp, Photo: Penny Bradfield / AAP via The Conversation

A damning indictment

Warrior, Soldier, Brigand is a damning indictment of the Australian Defence Force. Many survivors endured excruciating trauma and were forced to leave their jobs by an organization that purports to protect Australians. Many did not survive.

The book shows that military institutional abuse weakens Australia’s defense capability. Individuals are incapable of focusing on their work because they are aggressive toward peers and superiors. Many are forced to leave the service – either by discharge, or suicide.

Institutional abuse breeds a military force that is more likely to use excessive and unlawful violence among those who remain. The authors also question whether an ethical military could exist, but their own research suggests that the Australian military has n’t tried.

Mia Martin Hobbs is research fellow, Deakin University

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Big Tech manipulating research into its harm to society – Asia Times

Scientists have been gathering information for almost ten years that the social media platform Facebook heavily amplifies low-quality information and false information.

So it came as a surprise when a study from the journal Science in 2023 discovered that Facebook’s systems were n’t major contributors to propaganda during the 2020 US election.

This study was funded by Facebook’s family firm, Meta. The author team included a number of Meta employees. It attracted extensive media coverage. It was also celebrated by Meta’s leader of international affairs, Nick Clegg, who said it showed the company’s systems have” no discernible effect on polarisation, social attitudes or beliefs”.

However, a team of researchers led by Chhandak Bagch from the University of Massachusetts Amherst has just questioned the results. They assert in an eLetter that was also published in Science that the study’s findings were likely the result of Facebook’s engine being honed while it was being conducted.

The initial study’s authors acknowledge in a response to an eLetter that their findings “might had been unique” if Facebook had used a various algorithm. However, they continue to support their findings.

The entire scandal highlights the issues that Big Tech financing and facilitating exploration into their own products cause. Additionally, it emphasizes the critical need for more independent social media platform supervision.

Stores of uncertainty

Major technology has begun to invest a lot in scientific research into its goods. Additionally, it has made significant investments in institutions more broadly. For instance, Meta and its commander, Mark Zuckerberg, &nbsp, have collectively donated tens of millions&nbsp, of money to more than 100 colleges and universities across the United States.

This is comparable to what Big Tobacco once accomplished.

In the middle of the 1950s, smoke manufacturers organized a countermeasure to discredit the growing body of research that suggested smoking had a number of serious health issues, including cancers. It was more about carefully funding studies and bringing about conclusive findings than directly falsifying or manipulating study.

There is no conclusive evidence that smoking causes cancer, so this helped to reinforce the idea. This in turn helped tobacco companies stay in the forefront of a public image of duty and “goodwill” well into the 1990s.

Vintage magazines with tobacco advertising from the sixties.
Big Tobacco ran a plan to spread fear about smoking’s health outcomes. Photo: Ralf Liebhold / Shutterstock via The Talk

A good flip

According to the Meta-funded study that was published in Science in 2023, Facebook’s news feed algorithm reduced consumer exposure to unreliable media content.

The Facebook Open Research and Transparency group “provided large help in the execution the entire job,” according to the authors, who acknowledged that Meta did not have the right to prepublication approval.

Twitter users were randomly chosen to be a control group or therapy group as part of the study’s empirical design.

The treatment party received a news feed with material presented in reverse chronological order, while the control group continued to use Facebook’s analytic information supply. The research sought to compare the effects of these two news feeds on how frequently users encounter probably false and deceptive information from untrustworthy news sources.

The study was strong and well-designed. However, Meta changed its news feed algorithm to produce more trustworthy information information during the brief period of its conduct. In doing so, it changed the handle state of the test.

The decline in misinformation reported in the initial study was probably the result of the analytic changes. But these alterations were short-term: a few months later in March 2021, Meta reverted the news feed algorithm back to the original.

Meta said in a speech to Science about the controversy that it made the modifications apparent to the experts at the time and that it adheres to Clegg’s assertions regarding the findings in the paper.

Exceptional power

The study served as a model for reducing the impact of analytic content curation on issues like misinformation and political polarization by downplaying the impact of social media algorithms on issues like misinformation and social polarization.

To be clear, I do n’t want the people who conducted the original 2023 study to be misled. The real issue is that social media companies have access to experts ‘ information and are able to control their techniques in a way that affects the results of the reports they fund.

Additionally, social media companies have the authority to promote specific reports on the same platform that the studies are focused on. In turn, this helps shape public opinion. It may lead to a situation where people start to doubt and be skeptical about the effects of systems, or to become sceptical.

This kind of energy is exceptional. Even large cigarette was unable to influence the public’s perception of itself in such a direct way.

All of this underscores the need for websites to be required to offer both real-time updates about changes to their computational systems and large-scale data entry.

When platforms handle entry to the “product”, they also control the technology around its effects. In the end, these self-research cash schemes help platforms distract attention from the need for more accountability and accountability for their decisions.

Timothy Graham is a Queensland University of Technology associate professor of electronic media.

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Middle East war could swing US election for Trump – Asia Times

The Middle East conflict has considerably gotten worse as we approach the anniversary of the September 7 assault on Israel. Israel has been fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza with the rocket launch that the Iranian regime has really made on Israel.

In recent days, Israel has struck lots of priorities in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa, and the Beirut neighbourhoods in addition to the killing of major Hezbollah leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, as well. Additionally, it has limited the scope of the conflict to contain a ground invasion into Lebanon.

Despite US work continuing, the possibility of some sort of peace in Gaza and the surrounding area seems ever more out of reach.

A spokesman for the US State Department said after the Iranian missile attacks that” we are not going to give up on reaching a peace in Gaza because we think it is the best way to release the victims.” But he afterward added, referring to Hamas,” You need both parties to participate, and right now, we have a refusal to engage by one of those events”.

Before the November 5 election, President Joe Biden’s team had been hoping that there would be no social success there, which is becoming more and more probable.

Some claim that this is due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s desire to win the election and force the US to confront Iran.

Stalemate blocked

In July, the US appeared to be moving toward a stalemate. However, Ismail Haniyeh, the assassination of Hamas political leader, was carried out in Tehran ( which Israel has not acknowledged ).

Some claim that this was a deliberate attempt to incite Iran into the issue and a direct blow to the chances of a peace. Yahya Sinwar, the more tolerant Haniyeh, took Yahya Sinwar, the more radical Hamas chief, for the interim.

The US was suddenly hopeful of a peace deal in September, but Netanyahu torpedoed the offer with last-minute needs. In addition, the demands were made for military men to be barred from entering northeastern Gaza during a later ceasefire and for Israel to maintain control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a constricting strap along Gaza’s border with Egypt.

Reports suggested that Netanyahu had used delay tactics and consciously undermining conversations over the summertime. What, then, serves as the social justification for preventing harmony?

Netanyahu is betting on Trump winning the election and having a US lover who is more difficult to manipulate than Biden. Netanyahu has bragged about influencing Trump to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, a groundbreaking agreement that the Obama administration created in 2015 to impose sanctions on Iran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear programme. Some people thought it was a step toward achieving global peace.

Trump’s controversial move to relocate the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which Palestinians claim even as their capital, was also a victory for Netanyahu and the Jewish straight.

YouTube video

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How significant is the ballot in America for Arabs?

Egyptian American election styles

Despite Trump’s absolute support for Israel, several Arab Americans are more likely to vote for Trump ( or at least voting against Kamala Harris ) in November.

Israeli American citizens have usually typically chosen the Democratic ticket, with approximately 70 % of Jewish people identifying as Democrats. This is important as there are sizeable Jewish communities in swing states such as Pennsylvania ( with 433, 000 ), Florida ( with 672, 000 ), and Georgia ( with 141, 000 ).

Recent polls indicate that 72 % of Jewish voters support Harris in the election against Trump. And despite the claim that 75 % of American Jews value Israel, it came in just ninth place among 11 issues regarding how important their vote is to be.

The same ca n’t be said for the Arab-American communities, who have been devastated by the conflict in Gaza ( and now Lebanon ) and are angered by Biden’s response to Israel. Israel has just received another US$ 20 billion in fighter jet and other weapons while the US has used political pressure to demand a peace. Since the start of the Gaza war, this is one of the biggest army deals ever.

60 % of Arab Americans polled chose Gaza, and 57 % said the conflict in Gaza would influence their vote. This may explain why, according to a survey conducted in May, nearly 80 % of Arab British voters dislike Biden. Only 55 % have an unfavourable view of Trump.

Arab Americans are uneasy about supporting a government that failed to stop the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, despite the fact that they do n’t necessarily approve of Trump. They may either not voting or ballot for a third-party member.

And Netanyahu is betting on how the vote will turn out in Trump’s favor. Arab Americans constitute a critical voting bloc in swing states, such as Pennsylvania ( 126, 000 Arab Americans ) and Michigan ( 392, 000 Arab Americans ).

It’s likely that the Jewish American vote from 2020 to 2024 wo n’t change, but Arab Americans supported Biden nationally with 64 % support in 2020, and in the key state of Michigan provided Biden with almost 70 % support. In a position where Biden won with just 154, 000 vote, this might change the outcome.

In a poll conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations in Michigan in August, only 12 % of Muslim American voters in that state support Harris, which is disapproportionate of many Arab American citizens. These citizens are demanding a peace.

But we wo n’t see a ceasefire anytime soon. Netanyahu was battling for his social future before the Israeli strikes on October 7. Netanyahu, who is still facing charges of fraud, corruption, and breach of trust, has consistently discredited political institutions and was repressing the press to step down.

After the assaults in Lebanon, Netanyahu is now rebounding in the elections in Israel. Netanyahu is feeling less pressure from the inside to secure a ceasefire in Gaza, and it is becoming more assured that its aggression may succeed.

In our view, the more aggressive Netanyahu’s government is ( both in Lebanon and in Gaza ), the greater the likelihood that Trump will be elected. This is exactly how Netanyahu’s plan of action works because it will allow him to appear beyond Lebanon and focus on Iran, his main concern.

Natasha Lindstaedt is teacher, Department of Government, University of Essex and Faten Ghosn is professor, Department of Government, University of Essex and Non-Resident Fellow at Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Arizona, University of Essex

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South Korea’s Yoon shops for a bigger role in SE Asia – Asia Times

In addition to strengthening diplomatic ties with the Philippines and Singapore, President Yoon Suk Yeol’s planned vacation to Southeast Asia for the week of February has a goal to strengthen South Korea’s position there.

Yoon’s attend to the Philippines is especially important, marking the first state visit by a South Korean president in 13 times. The visit aims to deepen their previously solid partnership in conjunction with the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

The main goal is to strengthen financial relations. Yoon’s meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is expected to yield several agreements, including memoranda of understanding ( MOUs ) aimed at fostering cooperation in energy, supply chains, maritime affairs and various industries.

This coincides with South Korea’s wider desire to secure its financial future by forming alliances in sectors crucial to addressing global supply chain problems. South Korea can benefit from diversifying its strength and raw material sources thanks to the Philippines ‘ swiftly expanding economy and abundance of natural resources.

Also, the visit emphasizes the significance of private-sector engagement. Yoon will participate in the Korea-Business Philippines Forum, which is anticipated to get around 40 Asian companies. This business-focused view demonstrates South Korea’s devotion to expanding its economic relations with the Philippines beyond traditional political programmes.

The website is expected to create opportunities for Asian enterprises to discover new ventures in the Philippines, particularly in technology, system, and natural power.

Deepening diplomatic ties with Singapore

Singapore, the most advanced sector in Southeast Asia, is a vital prevent on Yoon’s political trip. This attend coincides with Singapore’s upcoming 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations, which highlights the significance of their long-standing relationship.

President Yoon’s discussions with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam and Prime Minister Lawrence Wong may center on improving and expanding diplomatic assistance in response to changing global dynamics as Singapore continues to be a key player in world trade and technical development.

Technology is expected to be a significant area of collaboration. South Korea, a global leader in advanced manufacturing and digital innovation, stands to gain a lot from strengthening ties with Singapore, which is renowned for its progress in developing smart cities and digital economies.

During Yoon’s visit, treaties and memoranda of understanding will be signed to formalize this cooperation, paving the way for both countries to explore new opportunities in areas such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and the digital economy.

Additionally, Yoon’s participation in the Singapore Lecture series will offer a vital platform for outlining his vision for regional security and unification.

For the first time, he will make a presentation about the” August 15 Unification Doctrine” of his administration, which envisions a unified Korean Peninsula contributing to regional harmony and stability.

In light of the rising geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, Yoon’s address is anticipated to address the strategic implications of unification. Yoon hopes to position South Korea as a leader in fostering peace and prosperity in the region by encouraging more international cooperation and solidarity.

Elevating Korea-ASEAN relations

Yoon’s participation at the Korea-ASEAN Summit in Laos will be his most significant and significant diplomatic tour. South Korea and ASEAN are anticipated to formally establish their relationship in this regard as a long-term strategic partnership.

Building on more than three decades of cooperation, South Korea’s relationship with ASEAN is significantly improved by this milestone. The elevation of this relationship reflects ASEAN’s growing importance as a strategic partner for South Korea, particularly in the realms of economic cooperation, regional security, and cultural exchange.

The market for South Korean goods and services is rapidly expanding thanks to ASEAN, which consists of ten member states and has a combined population of over 650 million. Its strategic location within the Indo-Pacific strengthens its position as a crucial partner for South Korea in efforts to uphold regional stability and security.

The comprehensive strategic partnership focuses on deepening cooperation in green growth, digital transformation, and sustainable development, aiming to promote mutually beneficial growth in both regions.

South Korea’s participation in the ASEAN Plus Three Summit, which features leaders from China and Japan, underscores the value of trilateral cooperation in addressing regional issues.

Yoon’s expected summit with Japan’s likely next prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, could signal a new phase in South Korea-Japan relations. Both nations share concerns about regional security, which could encourage greater collaboration despite the country’s historically contentious relationship and grievances that have not been resolved.

South Korea hopes to play a more proactive role in shaping the Indo-Pacific’s security landscape by engaging with Japan and China.

South Korea’s commitment to boosting its involvement in the region is reflected in the formalization of a comprehensive strategic partnership with ASEAN while strengthening bilateral ties with nations like Singapore and the Philippines. However, to fully leverage this enhanced partnership, South Korea must broaden its focus beyond economic trade and agreements.

South Korea needs to play a more active role in regional security issues, particularly those involving the South China Sea, where several ASEAN members are currently at odds with China over their territorial disputes. South Korea could act as a mediator by utilizing its diplomatic contacts with both ASEAN and China to promote dialogue and conflict resolution.

South Korea should also invest in ASEAN nations ‘ educational and cultural exchanges, as these initiatives can help establish long-term relationships that go beyond government agreements. By nurturing people-to-people ties, South Korea can ensure that its partnerships with ASEAN are resilient and sustainable.

Former Indonesian Foreign Ministry diplomat Simon Hutagalung The views expressed in this article are his own.

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Better defending Taiwan against China’s gray zone assault – Asia Times

Pacific Forum published this article at its original publication. It is republished with authority.

A People’s Liberation Army reconnaissance plane (X-9 ) from the People’s Liberation Army intruded into Japanese airspace east of the Danjo Islands in the East China Sea for the first time on August 26, 2024.

The&nbsp, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China ( Taiwan ) &nbsp, and the&nbsp, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan&nbsp, both protested and condemned the act, criticizing Beijing for violating the sovereignty of other nations and destabilizing regional peace.

This latest incursion reflected broader People’s Republic of China ( PRC ) &nbsp, gray zone tactics, a non-peaceful means it uses to assert sovereignty over Taiwan unilaterally.

Gray zone tactics &nbsp, include behavior-changing do and modifying the balance between hostile parties. One might employ non-kinetic strategies to encourage the other to adhere to perceived objectives and contest safety standards.

Intensifying PRC defense attacks

In&nbsp, 2016, during Xi Jinping’s second word, the PRC escalated its use of grey zone strategies to pressure Taiwan and neighboring nations. These tactics span the platform known as&nbsp, MIDFIELD, &nbsp, which encompasses defense, technical, political, economic, intelligence, financial, law, and development strategies.

For do violates the&nbsp, rules-based sea order&nbsp, across the Taiwan Strait and threatens the security&nbsp, balance&nbsp, in the Indo-Pacific. Since&nbsp, September 2020, Taiwan ‘s&nbsp, Ministry of National Defense has carefully tracked and publicized PRC intrusions.

Militarily, the PRC has maintained normal attacks against Chinese water, heat and near-shore territories. The peak PRC incursion occurred on&nbsp, September 18, 2023, when&nbsp, 103&nbsp, PLA aircraft intruded into the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone ( ADIZ ).

Throughout 2022, the&nbsp, frequency&nbsp, and richness of the PRC plane commissioned for invasion have increased, as evidenced by the Chinese government. In 2022, the number of PRC plane incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ increased by&nbsp, 79 %.

The PLAN invaded Taiwan’s ADIZ with an average daily flow of 19 aircraft and nine PLAN vessels ( including official ships ), according to open-source data released by the official social media account of&nbsp, MND in August of 2024.

A total of 1, 737 Army airplane intruded into the Taiwan ADIZ in 2022, while&nbsp, 586&nbsp, PLA aircraft entered the Taiwan ADIZ within only August 2024. PRC attacks often cross the median line of the Strait, destabilizing the situation.

On&nbsp, June 25, 2024, &nbsp, Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration&nbsp, expelled four Taiwanese coast guard arteries intruding into Japanese waters off the&nbsp, Quemoy Islands. Correspondingly, professionals, including&nbsp, Jude Blanchette&nbsp, of the CSIS think tank, are extremely concerned about possible PRC threats against Taiwan in the event of fatalities from such sea incidents.

A motion between the PRC and the Philippines occurred on&nbsp, June 17, 2024, and almost triggered the&nbsp, United States–Philippines Security Treaty. The latest sea fight on&nbsp, August 31&nbsp, between the PRC and the Philippines in the&nbsp, South China Sea&nbsp, (SCS) highly signals the dangers of intentional invasion and its effects.

Information battle

In addition to naval and aircraft attacks, &nbsp, cyberattacks &nbsp, and&nbsp, vote interference&nbsp, have huge featured as the PRC’s grey zone techniques in the&nbsp, information site. Such methods target Chinese public view, the center of gravity of cross-strait relationships.

Taiwan Minister of Defense Wellington Koo Li-hsiung, during a live-streaming with Taiwan-based advertising, stated that Taiwan faces over&nbsp, 5 million cyber-attacks regularly, &nbsp, mainly from the PRC.

These selective problems, launched by&nbsp, PRC state-sponsored stars, have been targeting&nbsp, important civil infrastructure&nbsp, and government systems. During the 2024 Taiwanese election season, the PRC-sponsored, &nbsp, Fuzhou-based group &nbsp, Red Juliett&nbsp, was reported to have detected&nbsp, vulnerabilities&nbsp, in multiple Taiwanese sectors spanning higher education, government, technology and diplomacy.

Correspondingly, the PRC even targets Chinese politics and de facto independence through election meddling. Since&nbsp, 1996, the PRC has &nbsp, routinely&nbsp, interfered in Chinese votes to prevent&nbsp, pro-independence events quite as the&nbsp, Democratic Progressive Party from gaining strength.

Using stars and famous media including&nbsp, LINE, &nbsp, TikTok and Facebook, the PRC invests heavily in&nbsp, propaganda campaigns&nbsp, and&nbsp, media warfare&nbsp, to affect Chinese public view.

Open-source content ( often baffled by&nbsp, AI technology such as DeepFake ), opinionated with unification signals, aims to shift public support from “diehard Taiwanese separatists” to the PRC’s favored candidates through videos and text-based messages.

Coupled with cyberattacks against Taiwanese infrastructure, interference in Taiwanese elections aims to incentivize the Taiwanese public and leadership to cater to&nbsp, Beijing’s narrative&nbsp, comprehensively.

Cognitive warfare and broader implications

Beijing’s strategic mindset is to win without fighting. Ultimately, the PRC’s priority is to&nbsp, coerce&nbsp, Taiwan into peaceful unification with the mainland without direct conflict.

By isolating Taiwan diplomatically via incentivizing states to shift&nbsp, diplomatic recognition&nbsp, and&nbsp, distorting&nbsp, the&nbsp, UN General Assembly Resolution 2758, the PRC advocates for the&nbsp, domestication&nbsp, of the cross-strait issue as its&nbsp, internal affair.

Using gray zone tactics, the PRC intends to convince Taiwan of the&nbsp, power asymmetry&nbsp, between the two parties and thus coerce Taipei into behaving according to Beijing’s interests, ultimately accepting unification.

These efforts have so far had a limited impact. Taiwan, the newest nation to grant diplomatic recognition to the PRC, is a small piece of Beijing’s diplomatic success. But&nbsp, public opinion in Taiwan largely favors&nbsp, maintaining autonomy, reflecting the resilience of Taiwanese democracy against coercion and instilling a sense of hope for the future.

Violations across the military and information domains are just the tip of the iceberg in the PRC’s&nbsp, cognitive warfare&nbsp, ( 認知戰 ) against Taiwan.

In general, the PRC is&nbsp, diplomatically isolating, militarily intimidating, economically containing and informationally manipulating Taiwan. Such coercion and non-peaceful means contradict both legal frameworks governing cross-strait relations and dialogue-based practices, such as the&nbsp, 1992 Consensus.

Broadly, gray zone tactics also threatened the strategic objectives of the&nbsp, three Communiqués&nbsp, between the United States and China, especially the&nbsp, peaceful resettlement&nbsp, of the Taiwan issue.

Since 1979, this pillar has been supporting US-China relations. Meanwhile, the PRC consistently protests&nbsp, unofficial ties between the US and Taiwan that flourish despite Washington’s one-China&nbsp, policy.

In summary, the PRC tries to achieve its strategic goal by imposing psychological costs on Taiwan and recognizing the necessity of coercion and fear-based control for unification. Members of the&nbsp, international community&nbsp, such as the&nbsp, Republic of Korea, &nbsp, Japan and&nbsp, Australia are voicing diplomatic support for Taiwan with growing consensus.

However, deterring the PRC with&nbsp, political costs&nbsp, is insufficient to disincentivize the gray zone violations. Such a dilemma stems from the PRC’s&nbsp, information manipulation, which manipulates public opinion by applying propaganda, censorship and misinformation strategies.

In short, the PRC’s gray-zone tactics against Taiwan will continue challenging Taiwan’s security and cross-strait peace. This security norm illustrates the possibility of turning into an a&nbsp, multi-faceted war; therefore, the nature of defending Taiwan’s security necessitates coalition deterrence based on military might, winning the information war, and economic resilience, underscoring the value of collective action.

Credible deterrence demands&nbsp, assurance&nbsp, and&nbsp, deterrence threats, thus, coalition-based strategic signaling should feature countermeasures against the PRC’s divide-and-conquer tactics.

As&nbsp, Richard Bush&nbsp, emphasizes, the cross-strait issue stems from&nbsp, political conflicts&nbsp, involving the military domain. The feasibility of&nbsp, strategic ambiguity&nbsp, could be&nbsp, challenged&nbsp, in the cross-strait conflict involving multiple state actors in an interconnected geopolitical era.

The stakes are high: &nbsp, Strategic ambiguity&nbsp, has governed US foreign policy regarding cross-Strait relations for the past 45 years, while Taiwan security is a pacing challenge. This approach has allowed the US to avoid explicitly supporting Taiwan’s independence while maintaining a broad interpretation ( e. g., “one China with different interpretations” ) of the concept of&nbsp,” China” &nbsp, under the&nbsp, one-China policy. &nbsp, Such a policy has been balancing cross-strait dynamics, which relies on US credibility to prevent either side from modifying the status quo unilaterally.

Thus, to counteract the PRC’s actions against Indo-Pacific state actors and Taiwan, “peace through collective&nbsp, strength” should feature solutions to the cross-strait security dilemma. Multilateral frameworks, especially AUKUS, can impose perceived war costs against the PRC by sharing&nbsp, advanced capabilities. &nbsp,

For instance, the strategic position of&nbsp, Virginia-class submarines&nbsp, and&nbsp, quantum technologies&nbsp, can strengthen Taiwan’s deterrence in the&nbsp, information&nbsp, and military domain.

Leveraging such initiatives from like-minded allies can help Taiwan strengthen its overall&nbsp, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance advantage to enhance&nbsp, credible deterrence.

Emerson Tsui ( shx007@ucsd .edu), a Taiwan security specialist with expertise in Chinese language and open-source intelligence, is an alumnus of the Carter Center. He’s also a Young Leader of the Pacific Forum, which originally published this article.

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Not your grandfather’s NATO – Asia Times

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, when a simple protective empire, now faces a crisis.

Nowadays, NATO is a huge global alliance of 32 countries, much larger and covering significantly more territory than the initial gathering of 12 countries. In raw numbers, it has a potential military force of 3.5 million people and covers 25.07 million square kilometers ( 15.58 million square miles ) of territory.

Although that would seem like a lot, NATO’s strength and capability depend on the United States for a variety of factors. This was true from the start, and it remains so now. First an American-led anti-Communist protective empire, NATO has morphed into a US-led power union that is forcefully expanding.

Despite the statements in the NATO Treaty, the empire no more coordinates with the UN ( at least consistently ).

Despite attempts to strengthen its presence in Poland, Romania and Estonia, the alliance faces important issues:

  • a crucial lack of weapons,
  • armed troops that are unknown and understaffed,
  • a US existence that is still largely military.

Ukraine

The chances of Ukraine surviving Russian problems seem slim despite NATO’s expansion and ongoing arms distribution.

Russia has also discovered a lot about using its weather defenses and electrical jamming capabilities to combat NATO weapons. There is no reason to believe that NATO could do any better in Ukraine than the Russians because the shelves in the United States are considerably clear as a result of the issue.

NATO is also vehement about Ukraine and its attitude toward Russia. Some non-factors such as the European Union are even worse arguments. However, the new NATO is dealing with a grim state in Ukraine and the possibility of a wider German conflict. Does NATO cross the Rubicon of fight, or get some hotel with its sworn army, Russia?

The danger

It is no small problem that the empire is no longer focused on socialism as a risk but, instead, on Russia as a menace to Europe ( and, by expansion, to the United States ). Washington is in a hard operational and military location because of its commitment to Europe in order to combat China’s much bigger threat.

However, it appears that US politicians favor dealing with the Russian danger, perhaps because it guarantees US supremacy in European politics and advances American interests.

If Russia were a real threat, and if the Europeans were truly committed to their own defence, then Europe was easily assemble a force that was at least as large as something Russia could summon.

Europe has a community of more than 700 million. By comparison, Russia has a much smaller population ( 144.2 million ), a much smaller economy and an army of around 470, 000 soldiers. ( The US Army numbers around 452, 000 active-duty personnel ).

The unique risk

In 1949, Washington adopted the NATO Treaty. The Russians had generally completed their work of establishing Communist governments in Eastern Europe, the Berlin Airlift was still in progress, and Europe was under assault from soaring home communism.

The US President signs the NATO Treaty, Harry S. Truman.

The Soviet Union detonated its first atomic bomb ( Joe-1-Joe Stalin ), ending the US atomic monopoly four months after the Treaty was signed.

The original members did not contain Germany, Turkey, Greece or Spain. Greece and Turkey would join in 1952, Spain only in 1982, well after dictator ( Caudillo ) Francisco Franco’s death in 1975.

Germany was divided and occupied. The Federal Republic of Germany ( FRG ) under allied occupation ( US, UK, and France ) was declared in May 1949, but it remained an occupied area until 1955. In May of that year, the FRG joined NATO. In reply, Russian-occupied East Germany became a status on October 7, 1949.

It may meet the Warsaw Pact, or Warsaw Treaty Organization, Russia’s response to NATO founded on May 14, 1955. The Cold War was characterized by the Warsaw Pact and NATO until 1991, when the USSR was overthrown.

NATO was a significant component of a successful initiative the US launched.

  • Following World War II, restore Europe.
  • end the domestic Communist threat in some European countries ( Greece, Italy ),
  • protect the divided town of Berlin and its allies.
  • produce strong defenses in Europe against any danger from the Soviets.

In consequence, the US established a continuous military presence in Europe, including significant bases in Italy, the UK, and Germany.

The NATO order, which was led by General Dwight D Eisenhower from April 1951 to May 1952, was based in Belgium.

Post 5

The NATO Treaty defines the alliance as defensive. The key provision, Post 5, states:

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Post 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Post 5 was only used once, on September 12, 2001, a day after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States. A decision was reached, after some controversy, by the North Atlantic Council, the political decision-making part of NATO. NATO carried out a program called Eagle Assist, sending NATO AWACS aircraft to patrol US skies. Although a symbol of support, NATO’s intervention was militarily largely meaningless. What NATO AWACS planes could do in US airspace was never explained.

NATO itself, but, has been involved in a number of activities that used military power – in Afghanistan, Kosovo, Bosnia, and Libya. NATO even is directly involved in Ukraine, though not with earth forces.

The growing Soviet risk

After its foundation, NATO concentrated on preventing a Russian invasion of Western Europe, primarily focused on West Germany. American strategists identified the” Fulda Gap,” a coastal hall running south from the German state of Thuringia to Frankfurt am Main, as a potential way for a Russian invasion of the British occupation area from the eastern sector occupied by the Soviet Union, as a result of the efforts of NATO strategists and outside martial experts.

Western strategists were concerned that the US and its NATO allies lacked the armor and artillery needed to stop a Russian attack as the USSR strengthened its forces in the 1970s and 1980s.

Two novels reflect some of this emphasis on the Russian threat. One, written by Sir James Hacket, was” The Untold Story: The Third World War” ( 1978 ). The other was Tom Clancy and Larry Bond ‘s&nbsp,” Red Storm Rising&nbsp, ( 1986 ).

In 1981, KGB chairman Yuri Andropov, in a then-secret speech, said it was critical that Russia” not miss the military preparations of the enemy, its preparations for a nuclear strike, and not miss the real risk of the outbreak of war.”

Andropov claimed that NATO was preparing a first strike on the Soviet Union under the guise of two NATO exercises, Autumn Forge 83 and Able Archer 83.

Defense Minister Dimitry Ustinov stated to the Politburo that the NATO exercises were “increasingly difficult to distinguish from a real deployment of armed forces for aggression.”

Russia appears to have had a preemptive attack on the USSR that was focused on nuclear weapons, just as the US and NATO were concerned about a Russian attack. While Russia and the United States would engage in proxy conflicts over the Cold War Years ( Korea, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, the Middle East ), general war in Europe did not happen.

Collapse of the USSR

In October 1985, Gorbachev, on a visit to Paris, met with Francoise Mitterrand, the French president. He claimed that Russia was a Third World nation with nuclear weapons. In 1991, his insight was demonstrated. The USSR ceased to exist on December 26 by the Soviet of the Republics of the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union, according to Declaration No 142-.

During Gorbachev’s working trip to France, French President François Mitterrand and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev formally reaffirmed their agreement on cooperation and consent.

With the collapse of the USSR, Russian power was radically downsized. The infamous Soviet military construction from the 1980s, which had ruined the Russian economy, was now rusting away.

Nuclear submarines slowly sank in their berths in the port as they were abandoned. Production in defensible factories stopped, and workers were not compensated. For the next 15 years, Russia would be on its heels, struggling to reinvent itself. The Warsaw Pact disappeared.

Russia is now a dysfunctional state with nuclear weapons. The Russian army itself was disintegrating. Russian military equipment was available for purchase in Eastern European flea markets to make a profit.

The West was concerned about former Soviet scientists leaving their jobs as rogue states, worried about rotting nuclear submarines and unsafe nuclear power plants, and unsure about who held the office, and overall whether Russia was a stable nation.

Meanwhile, what remained in Russia was mired in corruption. Even as Russia slowly regained its footing, corruption throughout the country continued, including in the military.

As the Russian military is conducting anti-corruption investigations, arrests, and firings as the country’s leadership tries to improve the military’s leadership and the release of military-grade weapons and supplies, according to the writing of this article.

Post-Soviet NATO expansion

When the Soviet Union collapsed, NATO still regarded Russia as an existential challenge.

That challenge, in the NATO view, took on added gravitas after Russia sent troops into Georgia ( 2008 ) and Ukraine ( 2014 and 2022 ). It is easy to overlook the fact that NATO was actively supporting NATO in both Georgia and Ukraine, including trying to oust the Russians out.

Today, all NATO military exercises, troop deployments, and operations are geared toward halting a Russian attack. NATO has reinforced its troop deployments and bases to protect the Baltic states (especially Estonia, which NATO sees as vulnerable ), Poland and Romania.

While the USSR was dissolving, NATO started an unprecedented round of expansion. The newly independent states needed defense assistance while there was little to worry about in 1991 and the following years.

Most had been utterly dependent on Russian weapons, and these would no longer be forthcoming. Moreover, they wanted to be protected. While the Russians from time to time complained, and on occasion were given assurances that proved false, NATO expanded.

Georgia and Ukraine will be able to join NATO in the future, NATO has also started programs. The offer came with NATO advisors and specialists, weapons and intelligence support.

Russian leaders saw the attempts as threats, especially when it came to Ukraine. Along with the EU, NATO has pressed on Ukraine to ally itself with Russia and join Europe. Russia, for its part, saw the Ukrainian NATO as a serious threat to Russian security.

Beyond its defensive mandate, the alliance took an aggressive stance in addition to the expansion of NATO. That includes operations in Afghanistan’s International Security Assistance Force ( ISAF ), the Bosnia and Herzegovina Implementation Force ( IFOR ), Kosovo Force ( KFOR ) and, in Libya, Operation Unified Protector.

The US tried to get NATO to support the Iraq war ( 2003 ) but could not, with Turkey strongly opposed. Instead, the US created a” Coalition of the Willing” ( Multinational Force, Iraq ) with troops from the US, Australia, UK and Poland. In order to support stabilization efforts, other countries would send contingents to Iraq.

Ukraine again

NATO’s future is inextricably linked to Ukraine. The defense minister of Ukraine is working hard to persuade Washington to give Ukraine long-range weapons to attack Russian territory, particularly Moscow and St. Petersburg, as the conflict nears an end point with the potential that Kiev will be forced to deal with Moscow.

The Ukrainians are well aware that the Ukraine war will result in even more bloody Russian attacks if Washington fully cooperates. They are hoping that this will entice NATO and allow them to take over the front line from Ukraine.

In an undisclosed location in Ukraine, a Russian howitzer is fired at Ukrainian positions. Photo: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service

The war would quickly spread to Europe if NATO actually sent troops or used NATO air force to support Russian operations in Ukraine.

This vital resource for Ukraine would put NATO in the path of a storm, to which it has already contributed in numerous ways. Could NATO be entangled in a conflict that will threaten European cities, military installations, and infrastructure?

The Russians have not taken the bait other than continuing to put pressure on Ukraine’s army ( AFU) despite the Ukrainian push into the Kursk region of Russia and extensive drone attacks on Russia including the shelling of civilians in Belgorod. Most reports are that Ukraine’s army is overstretched, short on manpower and starting to crack.

What comes next, then?

Stephen Bryen served as the deputy undersecretary of defense for policy and the staff director of a subcommittee of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee. &nbsp,

This&nbsp, article originally appeared in InFocus Magazine, published by the Jewish Policy Center in Washington, DC. It is republished with permission.

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Chinese stocks cool down as investors check reality – Asia Times

After a week-long rally, Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks returned on Thursday after economists were unable to accept the financial stimulus that the People’s Bank of China ( PBoC ) unveiled last week could put an end to China’s property crisis. &nbsp,

The Hang Seng Index, a benchmark of Hong Kong companies, fell 1.5 % to close at 22, 113 on Thursday. In the six trading days following the PBoC’s announcement of a number of monetary easing measures on September 24, the index increased by 4, 196 points, or 23 %. &nbsp,

Chinese property securities, which had gone over by 70-90 % over the past few years, even went on a rollercoaster ride in the past year.

Longfor Group decreased 9.5 % to HK$ 16.98 ( US$ 2.19 ) on Thursday after surging by 114 % in the previous six trading days. After increasing by 273 % from September 23 to October 2, Country Garden dropped 12.1 % on Thursday. &nbsp,

Shares of Agile Group were down 15.9 % to HK$ 1.64 on Thursday after a 353 % surge. China Vanke softened 1.2 % to HK$ 11.86 after a 163 % increase. &nbsp,

Since September 23, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 21 % to close at 3,335. Due to National Day breaks, the A-share marketplaces were closed the rest of the year. &nbsp,

According to an ordinary prediction made by 25 Foreign economists who were approached by Nikkei, China’s gross domestic product is then projected to increase by 4.5 to 5.5 % for the entire year of 2024. This is down from the previous survey that was conducted in July. &nbsp,

Of the 25 economics, 17 lowered their perspectives while nine maintained their prediction. According to Nikkei, the third quarter’s GDP growth rate for China was 4.6 %, compared to 4.9 % for the same period last year.

On September 24, the PBoC made its strategies to lower borrowing costs and increase financing to businesses. &nbsp,

In order to provide borrowers with an additional 1 trillion yuan ( US$ 143 billion ) of loans, it initially reduced Chinese banks ‘ reserve requirement ratios by 50 basis points. Additionally, it decreased the reverse mortgage rate for 14 days by 10 base items, reaching 1.85 %.

A number of fiscal measures were introduced by the central government to encourage the desire part of the business. Additionally, it urged local institutions to rest their house laws to stop falling house prices. &nbsp,

According to academics at PGIM, previously known as Prudential Investment Management, the lowering of second home purchase restrictions “demonstrates some willingness to expand hands of residential real estate expense.” &nbsp,

” The intention is unlikely to revive real property to the point where it causes a private wealth consequence,” they claim. Instead, it’s likely to work to remove excess stock from the industry to prevent further decline in real estate prices. &nbsp,

The government’s financial easing and recently announced fiscal measures, including those involving child benefit support, some child benefit assistance, and pension reform initiatives, are expected to aid China in meeting its 5 % growth target over the coming year, according to PGIM economics. &nbsp,

They say that prior to last week’s announcements, China was growing at about 3 % annually, which is solidly below authorities ‘ stated annual growth target of 5 %. &nbsp,

” Despite&nbsp, the&nbsp, current&nbsp, surge&nbsp, in&nbsp, market&nbsp, enthusiasm, &nbsp, the&nbsp, lasting&nbsp, effects&nbsp, may have more coverage helps and take time to present,” Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief scholar in Asia Pacific region, Natixis CIB Research, says in a study review. The true test will be whether the financial underpinnings will change.

” China’s economy is now dealing with major issues&nbsp, such&nbsp, as&nbsp, persistently&nbsp, low&nbsp, prices, poor real&nbsp, estate&nbsp, costs, &nbsp, and&nbsp, declining record need,” she says”. Just after we&nbsp, see actual improvements in these areas may market confidence be completely restored.”

Limitations of stimuli

Some experts speculated that the PBoC’s price reductions may cause asset bubbles and lower margins for Chinese banks.

According to Duncan Innes-Ker, senior director of Fitch Wire at Fitch Ratings,” We expect bank net interest margins ( NIMs) to remain pressure-stricken in the second half of this year and the entire year of 2025.” Although rate reductions will improve asset quality, we also anticipate a moderate increase in the number of affected loans rated banks will have as a result of the slowdown in growth in 2025.

Besides, he says Fitch’s calculations show that outstanding bonds issued by local government financing vehicles ( LGFVs ) increased by 3.1 % year-on-year in June 2024.

” We expect LGFV debts to continue to grow in 2024, albeit at a slower rate than the 8.8 % boost in 2024, “he adds. &nbsp,

A Beijing-based author claims in an article that the PBoC’s most recent price cut is a significant step to try to improve the Chinese market but it needs more time to evaluate whether or not it will work. Policy makers does take significant steps to stop an economic sluggishness while putting an emphasis on economic reform to achieve steady long-term growth.

He recommends that the government be aware that rate increases could lead to asset bubbles and raise systemic economic risks without actually causing a rise in corporate investment. &nbsp,

Read: China releases pleasant flood of market-friendly signal

Following Jeff Pao on X: &nbsp, @jeffpao3

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North-South Korea in a missile-building test of nerves – Asia Times

Seoul threatens to overthrow Pyongyang’s management while North Korea aims to sever US extended deterrent assures for South Korea while North Korea is bidding to overthrow US forces by building ever-larger missiles. &nbsp,

Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un was pictured standing next to a new road-mobile missile launcher chassis with at least 12 axles, which is longer than the 11-axle Transporter-Erector Launcher ( TEL ) that was used to launch the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile ( ICBM ) earlier this month, according to 38North.

38North information that the growth indicates North Korea’s continued dedication to road-mobile missile implementation. Although the limited information does not confirm its authenticity or specific use, the new chassis may be linked to a longer ICBM or a space-launch vehicle ( SLV ).

However, the cause says the car’s structure and military color job suggest it is intended for a new type of ballistic missile TEL, possibly enhancing North Korea’s missile capabilities. It points out North Korea’s ability to produce its TELs and its corporate investment in developing its missile technology as a result of the creation.

38North asserts that the new TEL’s objective and deployment are still unsure because more information and possible flight tests are required, but it may allow for more warheads, various decoys, and increased payloads to increase the rocket’s range and effectiveness.

The fresh TEL could be used as a rocket for a follow-on pattern for North Korea’s Hwasong-18 ICBM. 38North noted in December 2023 that the Hwasong-18’s solid-propellant pattern offers easier area function, reduced aid vehicle requirements and superior concealment, making it more credible and survivable.

38North information that the Hwasong-18’s possible range of up to 15, 000 km on a non-lofted path was reach anywhere in the continental US, depending on cargo pounds. While the actual amount of Hwasong-18 weapons and their manufacturing price remains unidentified, the missile is expected to strengthen, never change, North Korea’s existing ICBM army.

North Korea may be trying to defy the logic of expanded punishment that underlies the US-South Korea ally by imposing agreements on the latter, such as the reduction of its military presence in South Korea or the raising of some restrictions. &nbsp,

South Korea’s largest ballistic missile, the Hyunmoo-5, was unveiled during its Armed Forces Day at Seoul Air Base, according to Seongnam Yonhap News Agency, not to be outdone or constrained.

Yonhap mentions that President Yoon Suk Yeol attended the event, which highlighted the missile’s strategic significance in the midst of rising tensions with North Korea.

Asia Times noted in July 2023 that the Hyunmoo-5, with an 8-ton warhead flying at ten times the speed of sound for up to 3, 000 kilometers, may arm South Korea’s upcoming Joint Strike Ships. Based on the KDDX-class destroyer hull, they are envisioned to carry up to 100 missiles, including the Hyunmoo-5.

Konrad Ruminski mentions in a brief from the Asia Research Center in November 2023 that South Korea has been developing several missile systems, including the Hyunmoo-5, to attack North Korea for decades. According to Ruminski, military personnel from North and South Korea have stressed their readiness to launch a strong counterstrike if one country is attacked.

He points out, however, that South Korea’s missile forces are unable to strike North Korean targets due to its nuclear arsenal.

Ruminski points out that the Hyunmoo-5 may be a step in changing that situation. According to reports, it can carry the largest conventional warheads that can cause earthquakes to collapse underground structures. The missile, launched from land or sea, can destroy targets across the Korean Peninsula buried up to 100 meters underground, he says.

Ruminski points out that while South Korea has made a significant step toward bridging the Hyunmoo-5 gap, North Korea still has the advantage thanks to its growing nuclear arsenal.

In August 2022, Asia Times reported that these capabilities may be essential to South Korea’s “decapitation strategy,” which involves pre-emptive and retaliatory strikes against North Korea to deter or end a conflict by executing its leaders.

The best course of action would be to directly threaten the Kim regime because North Korea is not discouraged by the possibility of a small-scale conflict and harm to crucial military and economic sites.

Further, Sungmin Cho mentions in a February 2024 article for the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) think tank that South Korea’s new aggressive military strategy, termed” PISU: Punish Immediately, Strongly, and Until the End”, indicates a more offensive posture, reflecting South Korea’s urgent need to counter an increasingly nuclear-capable North Korea.

Cho points out that the strategy’s automaticity and personalization of threats are intended to deter North Korea by indicating a firm will to retaliate without retaliation.

In light of the upcoming US elections, North and South Korea may be able to see how they are upstaging one another by developing ever-larger missiles in the context of the uncertainty surrounding the US-South Korea alliance. The future of the alliance is a far-reaching issue for both US presidential candidates.

Darcie Draudt-Véjares discusses the uncertainty surrounding US-South Korea relations in an article for The National Interest ( TNI ) this month, citing the upcoming change in US leadership.

Darcie Draudt-Vejares points out that historically, the US-South Korea alliance has been a focal point in presidential campaigns, with differing views on the alliance’s financial and strategic aspects.

She mentions Donald Trump’s” America First” policy, which calls for increased financial contributions from South Korea, and that he has criticized the alliance for its costs. In comparison, she says Kamala Harris emphasizes strengthening alliances in the Asia-Pacific, continuing the strategic approach from the Obama and Biden administrations.

According to Draudt-Vejares, the current election season focuses less on South Korea, with debates prioritizing other global conflicts. However, she underscores the importance of robust, institutionalized alliances that withstand domestic political changes.

She contrasts the Trump campaign’s transactional view of alliances with the Harris campaign’s multilateral approach, aiming to counter China’s influence through coalition-building.

She calls for the upcoming US administration to formulate a unified, multilateral strategy to respond to changing global threats while strengthening commitments to regional allies like South Korea.

Should South Korea perceive US non-commitment to their longstanding alliance, it may have to act unilaterally, bolstering its nuclear latency – the capability to field a working nuclear weapon under short notice to match North Korea’s brinksmanship, with the Hyunmoo-5 acting as a capable delivery system.

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The lost art of understanding the enemy – Asia Times

On October 1, 1970, China’s People’s Daily published a portrait on its front page showing&nbsp, British author Edgar Snow standing second to Mao Zedong on the Tien An Men gate tower. Snow, the creator of the lauded” Red Star Over China”, had met Mao in Yenan in 1936, and while not himself a Socialist, not hid his affections both for China and its new program.

The image was intended to convey a strong message to the US social establishment at a time when Washington and Beijing were starting to melt. Mao showed that he personally supported a resumption of diplomatic ties by speaking in public with an American. But it was all for perfect.

In Mao’s eye, Snow was an American. But in the eye of the British creation, he was just another Socialist sympathizer. The intended victim did not understand how to read the message, so even though it was written on the wall, it previously passed. Therefore, it took more time and effort to persuade Beijing that the country was prepared to communicate.

Reading one’s rival, become it an opponent, an alliance, or even just an speaker, is not something that governments typically excel at. And, usually, the stronger the state, the more it is tempted to establish its own opinions and the less it is inclined to really know, not to say disrespect, those of the party it is dealing with.

The American history in this regard is comparable to that of the royal forces that once had dominance abroad. Starting from the Second World War, the United States’s authority was so enormous that it could, within its sphere of influence, run virtually on its own words.

But there were difficulties, and Vietnam proved one of them. The Vietnamese Communist Party’s Politburo asked the North Vietnamese defense to assess their chances of winning a military conflict with the United States in the flower of 1965 as the conflict grew. The government set up a working class, and its opinions were unequivocal.

The Asian should not even test because their chances of defeating the United States militarily were at a wholly improbable level. Contrary to what the war intended, if the goal of the battle was to force the United States to withdraw its forces from Vietnam so that the Communists had challenge their foes straight in Saigon, this could be accomplished by eroding America’s resolve to fight.

In other words, America could not be defeated, but it could be worn outside. The Taiwanese military believed that this could be accomplished if they managed to ensure that Americans received an average monthly fatality rate of around one thousand.

According to them, this was a fatality rate that the British social system could not support, putting pressure on the political elite to reach a deal that may lead to Washington’s withdrawal from Vietnam.

As for the price of the effort, this was estimated at some 150, 000 Asian dead per month, including both residents and defense. The defense in Hanoi felt the nation could support this price, so the battle evolved into, for all practical purposes, a conflict between Taiwanese solve and its related delivery rate and British firepower.

What followed is past but not necessarily to Vietnam’s benefits. In 1977, two centuries after the fall of Saigon, US President Jimmy Carter offered Hanoi normalization without assumptions.

But Hanoi’s ruling Politburo, under the command of its Secretary General Le Duan refused. Le Duan, a dogmatic Marxist, had a successful hard line against the war. He then demanded some form of financial support from Washington as a prerequisite for quantization. However, Vietnam had nothing to sell Washington and the battle was over.

Although the Americans still wanted some information about their Missing In Action ( MIA ), neither Congress nor the general public were willing to pay for what appeared to be reparations to Hanoi following their humiliating defeat. Le Duan relented and gave instructions to evil foreign secretary Nguyen Co Tach to Washington in the fall of 1978 to let them know that Vietnam was now ready to resume normal relations with the United States without conditions. But it was too soon.

Washington was not long in the mood to restore its relations with its original adversary, with Vietnam poised to enter Cambodia and Hanoi signing a treaty of alliance with the Soviet Union on November 3rd that time. Le Duan had missed the boat and had delayed the standardization of relations between the two countries by about 20 years by misinterpreting the United States.

Reading the army is certainly a matter of spycraft. It consists, in fact, of putting oneself in the situation of one’s player, analyzing the characteristics that determine their opinions and taking actions correctly.

In the end, it is more of an art than a science that necessitates an open mind and acknowledgement of the idea that the opponent one is dealing with may, just maybe, have a point. To say that it is an art in short supply is an understatement.

On February 10, 2007, at the Munich Security Conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in what will be remembered as one of his keynote presentations, expressed in no uncertain terms all the frustrations, fears and humiliations that had bedeviled Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union.

In his opinion, the expansion east of NATO was only the tip of the iceberg of a existentialist threat to the Russian soul. It was the vanguard of a Western liberal order that was everything Russia, his Russia, the Russia he stood for, abhorred.

A descendant of the KGB, President Putin was. Plots, sedition and subversion were his lifeblood. From that perspective, he was right to say that Russia was abdicating its core values. He thought it was incidental that these had not developed as a result of the fall of the Tsarist order.

His Russia was powerful and lacked iron fists. In this perspective, the perceived enemy was more than NATO, which at the time was slowly drifting into irrelevance. Rather, it was the likes of Gucci, Louis Vuitton and McDonald’s, riding on the crest of the wave of a consumer society that was, in essence, the harbinger of a liberal social order that made room for greater tolerance, individual creativity and political diversity.

In his Munich speech, Putin made it clear that his Russia was not interested in the international order promoted by the United States. In all practical terms, it was a declaration of war.

While it did produce some misgivings among some of those in attendance, it was essentially overlooked with one of the participants, then-US defense secretary Robert Gates, dismissing it as” spy talk”. Putin’s speech might have had the power to spark two undertakings had it not been taken seriously rather than scoffed at.

First, the Europeans, and in particular the Germans, might have drawn some contingency plans to address a potential crisis with Russia. If a conflict with Russia were to arise, they should have focused on how the West, under the leadership of Germany, would react without the outcome being a self-defeating exercise. Instead of seizing a few yachts owned by Russian oligarchs, such a plan should have focused on things like energy.

Second, it would have been better to establish a mechanism for Putin to engage in a sincere but secret ongoing dialogue. Based on the assumption that Russia was on its knees but also had the characteristics of an empire that could potentially recover and whose concerns, if not addressed, must be at least be heard, would have led to this interchange.

As an example of a long-term foreign affairs engagement that would n’t be held hostage to the whims of successive administrations, such an endeavor should have been conceived on the American side as a multipartisan effort spanning several administrations.

It is questionable whether the political system in America can support such a venture. And so is the question, had it been undertaken, as what impact, if any, it would have had on Putin’s legitimate or illegitimate concerns. In the meantime, the world has to contend with Putin’s paranoia, Washington’s hubris and a manipulative Ukrainian former comedian.

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AI versus the climate as data center emissions soar – Asia Times

AI is curating your social media feed and providing you with information to the train station. It’s even throwing the fossil fuel industry a backbone.

Three of the biggest technology firms, Microsoft, Google and Meta, have reported ballooning greenhouse gas emissions since 2020. Data centers crammed with machines running Artificial courses all day and evening are largely to blame.

According to the World Economic Forum, the number of system horsepower dedicated to AI is estimated to be double every 100 days starting in April. Oil power plants that were once scheduled to shut down had been revitalized to fuel this increase in the US, where numerous Artificial technology inventors are based.

Second, what actually is AI?

According to Sandra Peter and Kai Riemer, technology researchers at the University of Sydney,” the kind of Artificial we are seeing in consumer goods now identifies habits.” ” Unlike standard coding, where developers directly plan how a program works, AI’ learns ‘ these patterns from huge datasets, enabling it to execute tasks”.

Data computers operate 24/7 while Artificial programs are” trained” and fed sizable amounts of data over a period of weeks and months. When up to speed, an AI can perform a task 33 times more efficiently than conventional application.

According to Gordon Noble and Fiona Berry, conservation researchers at the University of Technology Sydney, a single keyword to an AI-powered robot can take ten times as much energy as a standard Google research.

According to them,” This huge demand for energy causes increases in carbon emissions and water use, which may put additional strain on power systems that are already under pressure from climate change.”

Data centres are both hungry and power-hungry: thousands of liters of water must be pumped to keep them cool. These huge server warehouses are competing with people for more power and water, which could be lethal in the event of a heat or drought.

A controversial answer

According to Noble and Berry, experts just have a limited understanding of AI’s source diet. Only 5 % of Australian conservation professionals believed data centre operators provided thorough knowledge about their economic effects, according to a survey.

Despite its ferocious taste, AI is hailed as a Swiss army knife of planet-repairing.

According to Ehsan Noroozinejad and Seyedali Mirjalili, AI researchers at Western Sydney University and Torrens University Australia, AI’s capability to process mountains of information allows it to identify early warning signs of a developing storm or storm and monitor how the environment is changing.

” For instance, it is apparently measure changes in oceans 10, 000 times faster than a mortal can”, they add.

The University of East London management experts Kirk Chang and Alina Vaduva raise concerns that AI may improve the accuracy of Earth’s climate models.

AI could monitor the entire electricity grid carefully and organize generators so that they use less energy while meeting demand. Artificial models may identify waste materials for recycling and look at air pollution to identify its sources. AI systems on farms had monitor the weather and soil conditions to make sure crops are given the least amount of water possible.

But, AI’s claims to productivity are unfortunately undermined by a well-worn trouble. When mankind improves an action through technology, the power or source savings are typically used to improve the activity or others.

” The advantage of an automatic car may increase people’s vacation and in a worst-case situation, double the amount of electricity used for transfer”, says Felippa Amanta, a PhD candidate in modern technologies and climate change.

And while it is beneficial to consider what AI might do, it is crucial to remember what it is presently doing. According to a Scientific American research, AI was used in oil removal in 2019 to significantly boost production. Somewhere, targeted marketing that uses AI creates desire for material items. More mass-produced things, more pollution.

Does our response to climate change have to be high-tech?

A reliable energy source is frequently the first thing to go when a culture disaster like Hurricane Helene, which over the weekend claimed more than 150 life in the south-eastern US. AI can be of much support in these situations.

Low-tech answers to life’s issues are usually more resilient and small coal. In fact, the majority of them have been around for a very long time, much like the fruit rooms, which were used in England as early as the Middle Ages to create Mediterranean produce.

” ‘ Low-tech’ does not mean a profit to mediaeval ways of living. However, more thoughtful decision in our technology choices and consideration of their benefits are required, according to engineering expert Chris McMahon from the University of Bristol.

” What’s more, low-tech options generally rely on camaraderie. This involves encouraging social relationships, for example through social music or dancing, rather than fostering the hyper-individualism encouraged by resource-hungry online devices”.

Jack Marley is environment energy editor, The Conversation

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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