Biden’s two-pronged plan to protect Ukraine when he’s gone – Asia Times

Before Donald Trump could win the US election on November 5, Joe Biden, the US senator, is making a last-minute bid to shore up American aid for Ukraine.

If Trump wins, Biden believes that US international plan on Ukraine is in jeopardy. The US senator has long supported Russian independence, signing a ten-year security agreement to supply military assistance to Kiev in June.

But, with only weeks left in office and facing the possibility of Trump winning the 2024 election, this raises a big question about who will – or wo n’t – be on Ukraine’s side from January 20 next year. Before he leaves, Biden is now attempting to load the political board in his favour.

Trump is a erratic president of foreign policy, and it’s difficult to predict exactly what he would do regarding Ukraine if he were to win the election next month.

But the evidence are not good for Ukraine. Trump is perceived as wanting to pacify Putin. Additionally, he has formally criticized Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine. Concerns were raised regarding whether Trump may interact with Zelensky during the author’s latest trip to the US. In the end, Trump did meet the Ukrainian leader, and apparently it did n’t go too badly.

US and EU leaders have expressed worry that Trump would stop funding the Ukraine and even pressure Zelensky to agree to a ceasefire and perhaps retake control of the country. As a result, Biden sees a need to Trump-proof US scheme on the fight.

Backing up US aid for Ukraine even furthers Biden’s goals even if his vice-president, Kamala Harris, wins the election. Biden wants to leave Harris with a strong foundation on which to build a decision while committing to ending the war.

If Harris wins office, she will be a contentious number and a magnet for Republican outrage after such a divisive election campaign. Harris will want to take the fight to a close, according to Biden.

Biden even wants to leave a legacy. He has worked his whole career to become leader and hoped to win a second term. He is concerned about what he can claim about his accomplishments in business. Ukraine’s upcoming victory would be one last victory to become remembered for.

Biden has today adopted a two-pronged method to Ukraine. Second, he wants to declare in a compelling way that the US will support Ukraine. A prominent conference between Biden, Harris, and Zelensky last week at the White House served as the foundation of this.

Biden wants to create an expectation of future American support, preferably in a way that Trump ca n’t ignore, and is trying to demonstrate that Ukraine is still” a top priority” for the US.

YouTube video

]embedded information]

Obama announces fresh support for Ukraine.

Next, Biden’s open position is being backed up with support. Biden just announced a” boom in safety help” for Ukraine in the form of a US$ 8 billion deal.

The money will give new weapons to increase Ukraine’s long-range hit capacity, which also suggests that Biden is sanctioning more unpleasant tactics against Russia and not a purely short-range defense – although Washington&nbsp, does not now allow Ukraine&nbsp, to flame the long-range missiles it has provided into Russia beyond the border region.

The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative is also included in the offer. Without having to remove weapons from American reserves, the US government can buy them from foreign companies.

Biden has also stated that he intends to use up all the safety aid money that the US Defense Department has now given to Ukraine by the end of his administration. In situation any son attempts to change the allocation or alter the money, Biden is making sure that this money actually goes to Ukraine.

If it quacks like a ( lame ) duck

Before the new leader takes office in January 2025, Biden will still have time to serve after the election is over. Leaders may sometimes drive through significant policy choices in their final few weeks in office, which is known as a “lame bird presidency.”

But Biden has limited effect, especially while the vote strategy is still happening. He wants to make the Ukraine problem a significant component of his plan known, but he runs the risk of being criticized if he does something that distracts Harris.

Harris has been a part of his attempts by the retiring senator thus far, but the Democrats believe this is now their turn. No Biden, Harris ‘ campaign will dictate the wider group place on Ukraine.

A “victory program” to negotiate a political alternative to the battle was supposed to be presented at Biden and Harris ‘ most recent meeting with Zelensky. However, it is n’t clear how this potential push into a peace treaty that Ukraine considers fair will alter the situation, or more specifically, what Biden can do in his limited capacity.

He can build on policies already in place, such as aid assistance, but he wo n’t be able to create any radical solutions to the crisis.

And Ukraine requires a radical option. In fact, Biden’s efforts in terms of foreign policy have always been essentially applauded in Ukraine, but they have never been sufficient to resolve the conflict. More tweaking at the edges wo n’t put an end to the conflict anytime soon. How much of a Trump-mongering effect did Biden’s actions have?

Ukraine is pleased with Biden’s new aid commitment, but it wo n’t be much of a buffer against a Trump presidency that might favor Putin. In the end, Biden’s only action is to cross his hands for Ukraine as he leaves the White House.

Michelle Bentley is a professor of global relations at Royal Holloway University of London.

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US needs more strategic ambiguity on Israel – Asia Times

Powers occasionally find it difficult to persuade smaller allies to accomplish their goals with the support they offer. Generally, it is to the detriment of the larger port’s interests.

In subsequent years, the United States has experienced a lot of this. US colleagues in Chad, Niger, and Burkinabe have diverted US security assistance and training in Africa to combat terrorism, allowing military coups to undermine human right and only increase the risk of violence.

Similar to how Saudi Arabia expanded and re-entered Yemen in the 2010s with US military aid to start a terrible conflict that ultimately led to the US military bolstering the Houthi rebels who are currently attacking US ships in the Red Sea.

Social scientists have a phrase that covers this trend: moral hazard. It defines a dynamic in which a great power pledges to defend an ally who has a revisionist streak, i .e., a wayward ally seeking to change the status quo or change the established order, while encouraging reckless deeds.

And nowhere else in the Middle East causes more of a pain for Washington than moral risks. Israel has ignored or undermined US pressure over the past year to lower the battle in Gaza and then, Lebanon, thanks to the country’s vast security umbrella and impenetrable support offered by the US.

As an expert on relationships and the Middle East region, I am aware of the high costs already paid to the United States and will almost definitely go up if Israel continues to hostile, which could result in Iran becoming a hot conflict from its place mostly on the sidelines.

What appears to be lacking in the US’s ability to have Israel adhere to its pleas to de-escalate is another political principle that has, it is argued, worked abroad: proper ambiguity.

No gash in US’s impenetrable support

The US-Israeli marriage is grounded on two fundamental principles: an alliance seeking to change the status quo and a strong great-power commitment to that alliance’s protection.

US President Joe Biden has frequently reiterated the country’s “ironclad devotion to the safety of Israel” since Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Israel has for its part stated its intention to physically and physically end Hamas and, perhaps, Hezbollah, reestablish Israel’s lacked of deterrence following the Hamas attack.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just said,” We did take whatever action is necessary to restore stability.

I believe that this balancing act between an Jewish commitment to US security and Israeli intentions to completely destroy its allies is creating a moral hazard, which makes Israeli actions appear to conflict with US wishes.

Bright lights are seen in the sky.
Rockets fired from southwestern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system on Sept. 27, 2024. Photo: Jalaa Marey /AFP via Getty Images/ The Talk

For instance, Biden instructed Israel to launch surgical strikes and stop a significant ground invasion in northeastern Gaza immediately after the October 7 attack. Two weeks later, Israel did the opposite, launching its cruelly dangerous strategy.

Therefore, on May 5, 2024, Biden informed Netanyahu that an invasion of Rafah would be a “red collection.” The next day, Israel did just that.

In addition, Israeli killings, voicemail attacks, and stubbornness at the negotiating table have repeatedly undermined efforts by Washington to broker a peace in Gaza and stop a battle with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The Jewish government’s refusal to listen to its far larger alliance has sparked outrage in the United States. Washington has done very little to indicate, however, that it will ever reverse its commitment to protecting Israel, regardless of what.

The harm to the US from this moral risk is now already felt. Israel has received billions of dollars in fresh security assistance from Washington, sending further US troops to the area, and defending Israel for the first time ever from an Iranian direct attack.

In addition, three Americans have died and many more have been injured in the more than 200 missile strikes by Iranian-backed proxy as a result of the increase of the issue.

And a higher price may appear. There have been initial concerns that the conflict in Gaza might ignite a full-fledged regional conflict, with Iran stepping up in the fight in a significant way.

Iran has reportedly resisted doing so, but it is significant that its occasional missile attacks on Israel have come after Jewish actions that have taken place allegedly without the consent of its US protector, first in response to an Israeli embassy attack in Damascus, then in response to a main offensive against Tehran’s principal proxy in the region, Hezbollah.

A Taiwan unit for Israel?

The issue is not whether Israel is acting in a certain way to defend itself, but rather whether it is doing so without the US’s visible consent and frequently against Washington’s wishes. In addition, Israel is acting in this way knowing that its behavior will not be enough to weaken US security, which shields Israel from the full effects of its activities.

But, what would mitigate this political social hazard? The truth, I believe, is corporate confusion. Friends are forced to reconsider acting in ways that may be foolish when great forces make their pledges to allies more confusing.

The US’s security devotion to Taiwan is a typical example.

The Bush administration’s commitment to protect Taiwan from an war by Communist China and strengthen Taipei’s sense of security increased in the first few years. The shift backfired, Taiwan’s leader, Chen Shui-bian, used the US vow to start a plan for Chinese democracy, which significantly&nbsp, ratcheted up tension&nbsp, with China and, for a time, deepened antagonism between Beijing and Washington.

teo television screens show grainy footage of two men.
Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian reacts to a harsh rebuke from U.S. President George W. Bush regarding the organization of a vote in cable broadcast media. Photo: Patrick Lin /AFP via Getty Images / The Talk

The Bush administration returned to the proper confusion that had governed the US’s China legislation since the 1970s in an effort to reduce Chinese moral hazard.

Bush achieved this by formally stating in 2003 that he opposed any changes to Taiwan’s or China’s status quo. Then he refrained from stating what the US would do to prevent it or what constituted a violation of the status quo.

The confusion worked: Taiwan backed away from democracy, and conflicts with China calmed.

Taiwan-style proper misunderstanding may, I believe, offer a better model for the Middle East today. A less sure pledge that the US simply “reserves the right” to protect Israel at its own choosing might help to reinforce the cautions against an escalation that have been made in Washington but have been so much ignored in Israel.

Charles Walldorf is professor of politics and foreign affairs, Wake Forest University

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New US missile built to pierce China’s A2/AD bubble – Asia Times

The US has unveiled a next-generation air-to-air missile, signaling a potent new weapon to counter China’s expanding Anti-Access/Area-Denial ( A2/AD ) strategies around Taiwan and the wider South China Sea.

This quarter, The War Zone reported the US Navy has confirmed the existence of the AIM-174 weapon, an air-launched version of the SM-6 surface-to-air weapon that marks a innovative section in its long-range security features.

Following reports of sightings during US Navy exercises in 2024, including images of Super Hornet aircraft carrying the missile during Hawaii’s Rim of the Pacific ( RIMPAC ) war games, the missile was first made publicly known.

The AIM-174, with an estimated collection of 320 meters, provides superior air-to-air, anti-ship and ballistic missile intrusion features, extending beyond the reach of lineage marine missile systems.

The weapon is described as a part of the US Navy’s wider effort to combat China’s growing propensity to thwart US troops ‘ capability to invade critical areas through a network of anti-ship arms, long-range ballistic missiles, and supersonic risks, according to The War Zone.

According to the cause, the AIM-174 allows US Navy airplane to employ targets at intense ranges beyond device awareness, leveraging advanced “kill web” systems that utilize connected sensor data from various air, sea and space-based platforms.

The US Navy’s defensive and offensive abilities in the Pacific drama are significantly improved by its advantages, especially in situations involving a possible conflict with China over Taiwan or the South China Sea, despite The War Zone’s claim that the rocket’s full capabilities remain defined.

The AIM-174 is anticipated to be crucial in extending the US Navy’s reach and shielding carrier strike groups from increasingly sophisticated Chinese threats as it enters service.

A” shooting the archer” approach allows the AIM-174 to be used, removing missile carriers before they can strike US carrier battlegroups or Pacific bases.

In November 2022, Asia Times reported that China’s strategic bomber, the Xian H-6K, was discovered carrying a brand-new, air-launched hypersonic ballistic missile, possibly a CM-401, highlighting its A2/AD and standoff strike capabilities against US forces and bases in the Pacific. The missile has formidable combat characteristics, including a speed of up to Mach 6 and a range of 290 kilometers, with the ability to perform terminal diving attacks.

The H-6 K’s air launch capability significantly extends the missile’s range and performance. Similar to Russia’s Kinzhal hypersonic missile, the H-6K underscores China’s strategy to diversify its hypersonic weapon platforms, including ship and road-mobile launchers, to counter US and allied forces.

By putting its own personal touch on modern air defenses, China’s hypersonic advancements aim to deter adversaries and pose a significant threat to US military installations in Guam and Wake Island.

Aside from targeting missile carriers, the AIM-174 can be used to hit large, slow and vulnerable high-value aerial targets such as tankers, airborne warfare and control ( AEW&amp, C ) and special mission aircraft. These could include sophisticated airborne electronic warfare platforms.

Last month, Asia Times mentioned that China’s Y-9LG airborne electronic warfare platform, with its “balance beam” radar, can disrupt enemy communications, radar and navigation systems while gathering intelligence on threat emitters.

This platform, which entered service with the People’s Liberation Army-Air Force ( PLAAF ) in early 2023, operates from a standoff position similar to the US Air Force’s EC-37B Compass Call.

The Y-9LG’s deployment underscores China’s strategic investment in airborne standoff intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance ( ISR ) and airborne early warning and control ( AEW&amp, C ) systems. This development is a part of China’s wider plan to improve its ability to use electronic weapons and establish information dominance in potential conflict scenarios, particularly in the Pacific.

However, the AIM-174’s reliance on kill webs may also be its vulnerability. Nicholas O’Donoughue and other authors claim in a January 2021 RAND report that the vulnerabilities of US kill chains and kill webs are a result of their reliance on networked systems and information sharing across various platforms.

O’Donoughue and others emphasize that a break in any part of this chain, such as sensors, communication links or decision-making processes, could disrupt the entire chain’s functionality.

According to them, vulnerability makes US kill chains and kill webs susceptible to cyberattacks, electronic warfare, and other disruptive technologies that aim to attack the chain’s weakest links. The traditional linear kill chain in the US is becoming more sophisticated “kill webs,” where data from various sensors and shooters are distributed across different domains to create more adaptable and resilient systems.

O’Donoughue and others point out, however, that these kill webs are also vulnerable because of their greater complexity. They make the case that effective real-time data synchronization and integration are required for distributed kill chains that involve a number of sensors and platforms. They point out that failures in these areas can cause delays or inaccurate targeting, which could allow adversaries to exploit system gaps.

In line with targeting US kill chains or kill webs, Joel Wuthnow, in a March 2023 presentation for the Institute for National Strategic Studies ( INSS), mentions that China’s” system destruction warfare” concept represents the core of the People’s Liberation Army’s ( PLA ) modern operational strategy.

Wuthnow makes note of the doctrine’s intention to defuse an enemy’s capacity to conduct coordinated operations. According to Wuthnow, it targets critical operational systems, including command structures, reconnaissance intelligence, firepower and support capabilities, using both kinetic and non-kinetic methods.

He makes the claim that China’s goal is to disrupt crucial decision-making processes in adversary systems through coordinated strikes, which could involve sophisticated precision weapons to devastate key command and control nodes, electronic warfare, and cyberattacks.

He notes that the PLA’s focus on “multi-domain precision warfare” further exemplifies its reliance on emerging technologies, such as AI and big data, to enhance these attacks.

Wuthnow points out that the PLA’s modernization efforts, including new hardware like the J-20 stealth fighters, Type-055 cruisers and advanced missiles equipped with hypersonic glide vehicles, are geared toward enhancing its system destruction capabilities.

He claims that these developments are in line with China’s strategic goals for 2027-2049, which highlights the importance of information warfare and joint combatants in its military operations.

He claims that even with the PLA making strides in these areas, institutional laggards like centralized decision-making and limited joint experience may still present challenges.

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Make no mistake, Israel and Iran are already at war – Asia Times

Iran and Israel are at battle. In reality, the two parties have been fighting for years, but the conflict has mostly occurred under secret and covert operations.

The nature of the conflict has been altered by the new actions of both sides in this again” dark battle.” It is not evident that de-escalation is on the ocean.

On October 1, 2024, Iran launched a large, clear strike against Israel notionally in punishment for Israel’s two assassinations of Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s chief, Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.

In six weeks, there was a second storm like that. According to many accounts, Israel was not seriously harmed by the preceding Persian invasion on April 13 that included over 300 missile and cruise missile launches and strike robots.

Israel’s quick military answer therefore, an attack against a single developed Egyptian air defense system in the Isfahan state, was somewhat measured. Perhaps because of this, and good in part because of US encouragement of restraint.

The measured change from April was widely seen as a sign that both parties would prefer to de-escalate instead than engage in continuous open warfare. However, additional Israeli military operations that followed have sparked escalatory Iranian military actions, thereby bringing the issue back into focus.

Israel’s military leaders announced in June that they were “ready to face” Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Palestinian militant group whose frequent jet attacks against north Israel have prompted tens of thousands of people to evacuate the area after Hamas ‘ capabilities and authority were undermined in the Gaza Strip.

Israel spins north

Israel’s tilt from Gaza toward Lebanon coincided with the July 31, 2024, death of Hamas ‘ social commission president, Haniyeh, during his remain in Tehran. The purported Jewish activity was seen as an affront to Iran’s autonomy. The domestic security apparatus of Iran was exposed through an embarrassment as well, which highlighted its fragility and absorption.

Even though Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei&nbsp, vowed a “harsh response” &nbsp, against Israel, by September, Iran had taken no action.

Many Middle Eastern analysts were unsure whether the Egyptian response would actually materialize and, in turn, what it would mean for Khamenei’s commitment to his proxies due to Tehran’s inaction.

If Iran’s command did choose caution following the assassination of Hamas ‘ leading political figure, the same could not be said of its response to Israel’s microfluidic operation against Hezbollah in the middle of September.

Israel launched a covert operation to create chaos and confusion in Hezbollah’s authority through the use of damaged violent communication devices. Israel finally carried out attacks eliminating Hezbollah’s top officials including Nasrallah.

The Israeli army next launched what the country’s officials describe as a “limited]ground ] activity” into southern Lebanon to reduce Hezbollah posts along the northern borders.

Many Middle Eastern experts and even Iranian military leaders believed that Tehran’s October 1 attack against Israel was primarily a retaliation for the two ostensible assassinations against Hamas and Hezbollah leaders.

These were certainly key factors. But as an expert on Iran’s defense strategy, I argue that Iran’s leaders also felt compelled to attack Israel for three equally, if not more important, reasons: to slow Israel’s advance in Lebanon, to save face, and to restore deterrence.

Challenging Israel’s advance

Iran wants to halt and possibly reverse Israel’s efforts to defeat Hezbollah, especially as it launches ground forces into southern Lebanon. Israeli ground forces must now battle what is perhaps the most effective guerrilla fighting force in the world, which successfully fought the Israel-Hezbollah conflict of 2006 with success.

Israel’s strategy and operational planning and execution ability are far superior to that of Hezbollah, despite the fact that it is still in the middle of a localized war and even after Israel’s leaders announced its intention to engage in it.

And that is a major blow to Iran’s view of the Islamic Republic as its” Axis of Resistance “‘s crown jewel.

In this respect, the Oct. 1 retaliatory strike by Iran can be seen as an attempt to afford Hezbollah time to appoint replacement leadership, regroup and organize against Israel’s ground invasion.

The brutal art of save face?

Additionally, it aids Iran in preserving its face, particularly in how other parts of its external proxy network view it.

Orchestrated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, or IRGC – Tehran’s primary arm for coordinating external operations – Iranian money, training, guidance and ideological support enabled and encouraged the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack against Israel – even, as it has claimed, Iran had no prior warning of the assault.

Since then, Hamas fighters have received almost no real-time support from Tehran. With many of its members either dead or hiding and unable to launch a coherent offensive campaign, causing Israel’s military leaders to claim that Hamas has been successfully overthrown as a threat, has undoubtedly contributed to this lack of support.

Unsurprisingly, Iran is glad to enable Palestinians to fight Tehran’s enemies and absorb the human costs of war, because this arrangement primarily benefits the Islamic Republic.

Once the fighting in Gaza started, the IRGC was nowhere to be found.

A glow is seen above some buildings with bursts of lights from missiles scattered around.
Rockets fired from Iran are seen over Jerusalem on Oct. 1, 2024. Wisam Hashlamoun/Anadolu via Getty Images

Iran ca n’t afford to sit back and watch now that Israel has turned its attention to Lebanon and achieved a number of initial tactical victories against Hezbollah. For two main reasons. First, a year of fighting in Gaza has demonstrated that Israel is willing to take any threat that might exist along its borders, including a willingness to withstand the pressure of international political pressure or to operate within Iran’s borders.

Second, other Iranian proxy organizations are monitoring Iran to see if Tehran will continue to support them or to step down, as it appears to have done with Hamas.

Reclaiming deterrence

Perhaps above all, in Tehran’s calculus over how to respond is Iran’s need to restore a deterrence.

The two defining features of Iran’s interrelated external, or “forward defense“, and deterrence strategies is its regional network of militant proxies and its long-range weapons arsenal, which includes a large number of advanced ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and attack-capable drones.

In two ways, these Iranian defense tactics aim to deter enemies from attacking Iran: first, by imposing a punishment on Israel and other regional US allies with proxy militia or long-range weapon attacks, and second, by providing scapegoat targets for Iran’s enemies to launch their anger. In effect, Iran’s proxy forces act as proxy targets that pay the costs for Iran’s hostile policies.

Iran’s ability to deter attacks against the country is threatened by Israel’s continued support for Hamas and its ongoing operations against it. For the Islamic Republic’s leaders, this is an unacceptable risk.

Who plays the next move?

The leaders of Iran are likely to have been motivated by these interconnected imperatives to launch a second significant, direct missile attack on Israel on October 1. It is unknown how successful the strike will be in achieving any of Tehran’s goals.

Despite unverified cellphone videos that show several ballistic missiles detonating after reaching land in Israel, the Islamic Republic claimed that as many as 90 % of the ballistic missiles hit their intended targets.

What is almost certain, however, is that this will not be the last move in the conflict. Israel’s operation in Lebanon is unlikely to stop until it accomplishes its goals for border security. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to punish Iran for its most recent retaliatory attack.

In response to this warning, the IRGC leaders issued a counter-warrant of their own, saying that Iran will once more engage in unspecified” crushing and destructive attacks” if Israel militarily responds to the October 1 attack.

Rhetorically, neither side is backing down, militarily this may be true, too. Make no mistake, this is a war. The nature and scope of Israel’s next move will determine how the war with Iran develops.

Aaron Pilkington is a Fellow at the University of Denver’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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US needs a solution to China’s problem – Asia Times

Whoever wins will have the breeze at their backs, according to Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, who both have pledged to lead a developing revival.

Thanks in large part to grants provided by the Chips and Science Act, the Prices Reduction Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, many new companies are already under development in the United States. With continued emphasis from Washington, the country could observe ground broken on still more innovative companies.

Do n’t, however, undervalue the threat China poses to the revival of American industry. China has a lot of professional overcapacity, and the state there is investing in even more. That will increase the cost of a wide range of manufactured products, making it harder for new companies to succeed outside of China.

China denies it has overcapacity. The Chinese claim that foreigners who employ that phrase are attempting to prevent China’s rise by suggesting there should be limitations on how much it can generate and export.

But China now dominates world developing. It produces 35 % of the country’s factory output. That’s almost six times the US’s 12 % share of the top two producers, the US, and more than the combined stock of the next nine largest manufacturing nations.

Economist Richard Baldwin calls China” the world’s ultimate producing power”.

According to international economists, China’s obsession with production has caused its economy to be extremely imbalanced and heavily dependent on investment at the expense of consumption. They say this underlies the government’s slowing growth, rising poverty and real-estate debt problems.

China’s officials reject that research. They are planning to export items that the domestic market ca n’t handle while doubling down on their manufacturing investments. They are attempting to rule the high-tech sectors of the future by pushing for upward growth.

” China’s increased investments will not be a little storm, but rather a US$ 450 billion wave over the next three years”, says Harry Moser, chairman of the Reshoring Initiative, a non-profit dedicated to bringing production jobs up to the US.

The Chinese president’s support for its makers was in a group of its own, even before the most recent double-down, according to the Wall Street Journal. In 2019, China spent 1.7 % of its GDP on business policy. The US spent 0.4 %.

And China’s 1.7 % does n’t take into account a variety of indirect subsidies – cheap loans from state-owned banks, tax breaks of various kinds, cheap steel from state-owned steel companies and cheap energy from state-owned utilities. One estimate cited by the Journal puts China’s actual industrial-policy spending close to 5 % of national income.

And China’s spending is n’t just deep, it’s broad. ” Ninety-nine percent of publicly listed companies report some kind of subsidy”, the Journal information.

As much about authority as economy are involved in the doubling over. China wants to reduce its reliance on different nations. They should rely on China more, it wants.

Other countries, especially the US, do n’t want to be more reliant on China. They fear more poverty and suburbanization, but that’s not their just stress.

Washington has been reminded that a solid business foundation is essential to national security by the Russian war of Ukraine and Israel’s conflict with Hamas. In a turmoil, Cocavid taught the US that it’s foolish to concentrate on other nations for essential supplies.

Government politicians in the US, Europe, and other countries are having a hard time coming up with solutions to the China issue. With varying degrees of success, the last two US governments have tried tariffs and incentives in various ways.

Trump is promising yet higher taxes and is threatening businesses that are moving their manufacturing abroad, including John Deere. Harris claims that she will grant tax credits to motivate opportunities in brand-new factories. It’s unclear how significant these efforts may be.

Anyhow, these are techniques. As I’ve argued earlier, what the nation needs is a plan. A bipartisan committee of experts will be set up to examine the issue and suggest solutions.

More than remain with the ready-fire-aim technique both parties have been taking, we need first to agree on solutions to some important questions.

How many production is required to avoid relying on China? Without the assistance of the government, how many new production can be created? Which companies deserve help? Which of the many probable techniques can you provide that support the best?

Another crucial issue for this fee may be whether to collaborate with other nations to reduce China’s dependence or to go it only. In my next article, I’ll address that query.

A base has been laid for this fee: Both parties agree there’s a problem. It’s for trying to see if they can agree on options. China Shock 2’s potential risks are such significant that a coordinated effort from all parties is required. This grant bipartisanship a possibility.

Previous lifelong Wall Street Journal Asia journalist and editor&nbsp, Urban Lehner&nbsp, is writer professor of DTN/The Progressive Farmer.

This&nbsp, content, &nbsp, previously published on&nbsp, October 2 by the latter news business and then republished by Asia Times with authority, is © Copyright 2024 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved. Follow&nbsp, Urban Lehner&nbsp, on&nbsp, X @urbanize

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Inside the US State Department’s weapons pipeline to Israel – Asia Times

This article was first published by ProPublica, a Pulitzer Prize-winning analytical news website.

Reporting features

  • More weapons: Because Israel has a “decades-long proven track record” of avoiding killing citizens, Ambassador Jack Lew urged Washington to send hundreds more weapons to them.
  • A thank-you: After State Department officials spent months working through weekends and after time on hands sales, the Israelis sent cases of wine to them just before Christmas.
  • A lobbying force: Defense companies and activists have also helped drive down important sales by leaning on State Department officials and lawmakers whenever there’s a flow.

Israel’s military demanded 3, 000 more weapons from the British government in soon January as the death toll in Gaza soared to 25, 000 and Palestinians fled their destroyed cities in search of safety. US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew, along with other major officials in the Jerusalem ambassador, sent a wire to Washington urging State Department leaders to review the price, saying there was no probable the Israel Defense Forces would use the weapons.

The wires did not address the Biden administration’s common concerns over the escalating civilian casualties, nor did it solve well-known reports that Israel had dropped 2, 000-pound bombs on crowded Gazan areas weeks earlier, causing house collapses and the deaths of hundreds of Palestinians, many of whom were children. Lew was aware of the issues. Authorities say his own team had repeatedly noted episodes where large numbers of citizens died. Jewish airstrikes had targeted the homes of the ministry’s personal Israeli employees.

However, Lew and his senior administration argued that Israel may be trusted with this fresh package of weapons, known as GBU-39s, which are smaller and more accurate. They claimed that Israel’s air force had a “decades-long proven track record” of avoiding shooting civilians when using the American-made weapon and had “demonstrated an ability and willingness to use it in]a manner that minimizes money destruction.”

While that request was pending, the Israelis proved those assertions wrong. In the months that followed, the Israeli military repeatedly dropped GBU-39s it already possessed on shelters and refugee camps that it said were being occupied by Hamas soldiers, killing scores of Palestinians. The IDF then bombed a mosque and school where civilians were frightened in early August. At least 93 died. Parents had trouble identifying children’s bodies because their bodies were so mutilated.

Weapons analysts identified shrapnel from GBU-39 bombs among the rubble.

In the months before and since, an array of State Department officials urged that Israel be completely or partially cut off from weapons sales under laws that prohibit arming countries with a pattern or clear risk of violations. Top State Department political appointees have consistently rejected those appeals. Government experts have for years unsuccessfully tried to withhold or place conditions on arms sales to Israel because of credible allegations that the country had violated Palestinians ‘ human rights using American-made weapons.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a town hall for the organization at the State Department’s headquarters on January 31 the day after the embassy’s assessment was made, where he received sharp questions from his subordinates about Gaza. He said the suffering of civilians was “absolutely gut wrenching and heartbreaking”, according to a transcript of the meeting.

” But it is a question of making judgments”, Blinken said of his agency’s efforts to minimize harm. On October 7, we premised that Israel had the right to defend itself, and more importantly, the right to try to prevent October 7 from occurring again.

The embassy’s endorsement and Blinken’s statements reflect what many at the State Department have understood to be their mission for nearly a year. The unwritten policy, according to a former embassy official, was to “protect Israel from scrutiny” and to encourage the flow of arms no matter how many human rights violations are reported. ” We ca n’t admit that’s a problem”, this former official said.

The embassy has even historically resisted accepting funds from the State Department’s Middle East bureau earmarked for investigating human rights issues throughout Israel because embassy leaders did n’t want to insinuate that Israel might have such problems, according to Mike Casey, a former U. S. diplomat in Jerusalem. Our main objective is to address human rights violations, Casey continued. ” We do n’t have that in Jerusalem”.

The US Agency for International Development and the State Department’s refugees bureau, according to a ProPublica report from last week, concluded in april that Israel had purposefully stopped the flow of food and medicine into Gaza and that weapons sales should be stopped. But Blinken rejected those findings as well and, weeks later, told Congress that the State Department had concluded that Israel was not blocking aid.

The episodes uncovered by ProPublica, which have not been previously detailed, offer an inside look at how and why the highest ranking policymakers in the US government have continued to approve sales of American weapons to Israel in the face of a mounting civilian death toll and evidence of almost daily human rights abuses. This article draws inspiration from a trove of State Department records, including internal cables, email threads, memos, meeting minutes, and other documents, as well as interviews with current and former officials from the organization, the majority of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak in public.

The records and interviews also show that the pressure to keep the arms pipeline moving also comes from the US military contractors who make the weapons. Behind the scenes, lobbyists for those companies have frequently pressed lawmakers and State Department officials to approve shipments both to Israel and other contentious allies in the region, including Saudi Arabia. When one company executive pushed his former subordinate at the department for a valuable sale, the government official reminded him that strategizing over the deal might violate federal lobbying laws, emails show.

The Biden administration’s repeated willingness to give the IDF a pass has only emboldened the Israelis, experts told ProPublica. Critics claim that the risk of a regional war is as high as it has been in decades as Israel and Iran trade blows, and that the cost of that failure has increased.

” The reaffirmation of impunity has come swiftly and unequivocally”, said Daniel Levy, who served in the Israeli military before holding various prominent positions as a government official and adviser throughout the’ 90s. He later served as the president of the US/Middle East Project and one of the founding members of the advocacy group J Street.

Levy said there is virtually no threat of accountability for Israel’s conduct in Gaza, only” a certainty of carte blanche”. Or, as another State Department official said,” If there’s never any consequences for doing it, then why stop doing it”?

The conflict in Gaza has continued for almost a year without abating. There are at least 41, 000 Palestinians dead, by local estimates. In contrast to Hamas, which killed more than 1,100 Israelis, mostly civilians, on October 7 and continues to hold dozens of hostages, Israel claims its actions were legal and legitimate.

The US has been a stalwart ally of Israel for decades, with presidents of both parties praising the country as a beacon of democracy in a dangerous region filled with threats to American interests.

In response to detailed questions from ProPublica, a State Department spokesperson sent a statement saying that arms transfers to any country, including Israel, are done “in a deliberative manner with appropriate input” from other agencies, State Department bureaus and embassies. We anticipate that any nation that receives US security articles will use them in full compliance with international humanitarian law, and we have a number of ongoing investigations underway to check whether it is done.

The spokesperson also said Lew has been at the forefront of ensuring” that every possible measure is taken to minimize impacts on civilians” while working on a ceasefire deal to secure” the release of hostages, alleviate the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza, and bring an end to the conflict”.

Israeli military leaders generally support the Israeli military’s aerial assault on Gaza as a “military necessity” to put an end to terrorists hiding among the population. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also publicly pressured the Biden administration to hasten arms transfers. ” Give us the tools and we’ll finish the job a lot faster”, he said in June.

ProPublica also emailed Israeli government representatives in-depth inquiries. A spokesperson said in a statement:” The article is biased and seeks to portray legitimate and routine contacts between Israel and the Embassy in Washington with State Department officials as improper. Its intention appears to be to cast doubt on the security cooperation between two close allies and friendly nations.

Weapons sales are a pillar of American foreign policy in the Middle East. Historically, the US gives more money to Israel for weapons than it does to any other country. The majority of those American tax dollars are used to purchase US-made weapons and equipment, according to Israel.

While Israel has its own arms industry, the country relies heavily on American jets, bombs and other weapons in Gaza. More than 50 000 tons of weapons have been shipped by the US since October 2023, according to the Israeli military, which is” crucial for sustaining the IDF’s operational capabilities during the ongoing war.” The air defenses that defend Israeli towns and cities — known as the Iron Dome — also depend largely on US support.

There is little sign that either party is prepared to curtail US weapons shipments. Kamala Harris, the vice president, has called for a ceasefire, lamented the death toll in Gaza, and said she supports the decision of President Joe Biden to halt a shipment of 2, 000 bombs in June. She has also echoed a refrain from previous administrations, pledging to “ensure Israel has the ability to defend itself”. Additionally, Harris added that she had no intention of opposing Biden’s Israel policy.

Republican nominee for president Donald Trump, who has described himself as the “best friend that Israel has ever had”, reportedly told donors that he supports Israel’s “war on terror” and promised to crush pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses. Trump was also recently a featured speaker at the Israeli-American Council’s summit, where he cast himself as the most pro-Israel choice in the coming election. He said to the crowd,” You have a big protector in me. ” You do n’t have a protector on the other side”.

In the early 1970s, the United States first started offering significant amounts of weapons to Israel. Until then, Israel had relied on an array of home-grown and international purchases, notably from France, while the Soviet Union armed Israel’s adversaries. Over the past half-century, no country in the world has received more American military assistance than Israel.

The US provides the Israeli government with$ 3.8 billion annually and much more during conflicts to keep its military might in the area. Congress and the executive branch have imposed legal guardrails on how Israel and other countries can use the weapons they buy with US money. If there is a pattern or real danger of breaking international humanitarian law, such as preventing food deliveries to refugees, or requiring the State Department to review and approve the majority of those large military sales, the State Department is required to shut off a nation. The department is also supposed to withhold US-funded equipment and weapons from individual military units credibly accused of committing flagrant human rights violations, like torture.

Initially, a country makes a request and the local embassy, which is under the State Department’s jurisdiction, writes a cable called a” country team assessment” to judge the fitness of the nation asking for the weapons. Because of the local expertise of the embassies, this is only the start of a complicated process.

Then, the bulk of that review is conducted by the State Department’s arms transfers section, known as the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, with input from other bureaus. If the sale is worth at least$ 100 million for weapons or$ 25 million for equipment, Congress also receives final approval, as are NATO allies and Israel. If lawmakers try to block a sale, which is rare, the president can sidestep with a veto.

For years, Josh Paul, a career official in the State Department’s arms transfers bureau, reviewed arms sales to Israel and other countries in the Middle East. He eventually developed into one of the agency’s most in-depth experts on arms sales.

Even before Israel’s retaliation for October 7, he had been concerned with Israel’s conduct. He claimed that he had heard that the law required the government to withhold weapons transfers on numerous occasions. In May 2021, he refused to approve a sale of fighter jets to the Israeli Air Force. ” At a time the IAF are blowing up civilian apartment blocks in Gaza”, Paul wrote in an email,” I cannot clear on this case”. After Amnesty International published a report accusing Israeli authorities of apartheid, he would n’t agree to another sale the following February.

In both cases, Paul later told ProPublica, his immediate superiors signed off on the sales over his objections.

He wrote to a deputy assistant secretary at the time,” I have no expectation of making any policy gains on this topic during this Administration.”

During that same time period, Paul circulated a memo to some of the agency’s senior diplomats with recommendations to strengthen the arms sales review process, such as including input from human rights groups. Paul warned that the Biden administration’s new arms transfer policy — which prohibits weapons sales if it’s “more likely than not” the recipient will use them to intentionally attack civilian structures or commit other violations — would be “watered down” in practice.

The December 2021 memo stated that the sale of precision-guided weapons to Israel and Saudi Arabia “posses an undisputed significant risk of civilian harm.” The US government has been historically unable to hold itself to its own standards, he wrote, “in the face of pressure from partners, industry, and perceived policy imperatives emerging from within the government itself”.

The memo’s recommendations do n’t appear to have been followed either. Paul resigned in protest over arms shipments to Israel last October, less than two weeks after the Hamas attack. It was the Biden administration’s first major public departure since the start of the war. Local authorities claimed that at least 3,300 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli military operations in Gaza as of that time.

Internally, other experts began to worry the Israelis were violating human rights almost from the onset of the war as well. According to those who participated in the creation of some of them, Middle Eastern officials sent at least six dissert memos to senior leaders praising the administration’s decision to continue arming Israel. The content of several memos leaked to the media earlier this year. The agency says it welcomes input from the dissent channel and incorporates it into policymaking decisions.

A group of experts from various bureaus claimed in a previously unreported memo from November that they had not been consulted before several policy decisions regarding arms transfers made immediately after October 7 and that there was no effective vetting process in place to assess the repercussions of those sales.

That memo, too, seemed to have little impact. State Department staff worked overtime, frequently after hours and on weekends, in the early stages of the conflict to process Israeli requests for more weapons. Some in the agency have thought the efforts showed an inappropriate amount of attention on Israel.

The Israelis, however, felt different. Staff in the arms transfers bureau entered their Washington, DC, office in late December, and they discovered cases of wine from a winery in the Negev Desert, along with personalized letters on each bottle.

The gifts were courtesy of the Israeli embassy.

According to the State Department, employees are permitted to accept donations from foreign governments that are less than the dollar amount. ” To allege that any of their allegiances to the United States should be questioned is insulting”, he added. ” The accusation that the Department of State is placing a disproportionate attention on Israel is inconsistent with the facts”.

The embassy frequently sends individual bottles of wine ( not cases ) to many of its contacts to celebrate the end of the year holidays, according to an Israeli government spokesperson.

One month later, Lew delivered his endorsement of Israel’s request for the 3, 000 precision GBU-39 bombs, which would be paid for with both US and Israeli funds. Lew, who has served in various administrations, is a significant figure in Democratic circles. He was President Barack Obama’s chief of staff and then became his treasury secretary. He has also been a top executive at Citigroup and a major private equity firm.

Rear Admiral Frank Schlereth, the US’s defense attaché to Israel, also authorized the January cable. In addition to its assurances about the IDF, the memo cited the Israeli military’s close ties with the American military: Israeli air crews attend US training schools to learn about collateral damage and use American-made computer systems to plan missions and “predict what effects their munitions will have on intended targets”, the officials wrote.

Many experts criticized Israel’s use of American-made, unguided “dumb” bombs, some of which were thought to be as much as 2, 000 pounds, as indiscriminate in the beginning of the conflict. But at the time of the embassy’s assessment, Amnesty International had documented evidence that the Israelis had also been dropping the GBU-39s, manufactured by Boeing to have a smaller blast radius, on civilians. Months before October 7, a May 2023 attack left 10 civilians dead. Then, in a strike in January of this year, 18 civilians, including 10 children, were killed. Amnesty International investigators found GBU-39 fragments at both sites. ( Boeing referred ProPublica to the government and declined to comment. )

At the time, State Department experts were also cataloging the effect the war has had on American credibility throughout the region. Hala Rharrit, a career diplomat based in the Middle East, was required to send daily reports analyzing Arab media coverage to the agency’s senior leaders. Her emails frequently featured graphic images of Palestinians dead and wounded along with US bomb fragments in the rubble, and described the collateral damage from airstrikes in Gaza.

” Arab media continues to share countless images and videos documenting mass killings and hunger, while affirming that Israel is committing war crimes and genocide and needs to be held accountable”, she reported in one early January email alongside a photograph of a dead toddler. These videos and images of carnage, particularly those of children who are repeatedly injured and killed, are traumatizing and enrage the Arab world in unheard ways.

Rharitt, who later resigned in protest, told ProPublica those images alone should have prompted US government investigations and factored into arms requests from the Israelis. She said the State Department has “willfully violated the laws” by failing to act on the information she and others had documented. Rharitt continued,” They ca n’t say they did n’t know.”

Rharitt said her superiors eventually told her to stop sending the daily reports. ( A spokesperson for the State Department claimed that the organization continues to take perspectives from Arab media into account when conducting regular internal analyses. )

Lew’s January cable makes no mention of the death toll in Gaza or the incidents of the Israelis dropping GBU-39s on civilians. Eight current and former State Department officials with expertise in human rights, the Middle East or arms transfers said the embassy’s assessment was an inadequate but not a surprising distillation of the administration’s position. Charles Blaha, a former human rights director at the agency, described it as an exercise in checking the boxes.

The State Department declined to comment on the status of that request other than to say the US has provided large amounts of GBU-39s to Israel multiple times in past years.

While the US hoped that the smaller bombs would stop unnecessary deaths, experts in the laws of war contend that it does n’t matter if a civilian is killed more than the military targets ‘ justifications. Lieutenant Colonel Rachel E VanLandingham, a retired officer with the Air Force’s Judge Advocate General’s Corps, said the IDF is legally responsible for doing all it can to know the risk to civilians ahead of any given strike and to avoid indiscriminately bombing densely populated areas like refugee camps and shelters. ” It seems extremely plausible that they just disregarded the risk”, VanLandingham added. It “induces serious concerns and indicators of a violation of the law of war”

According to officials at the embassy in Jerusalem and elsewhere in Washington, Lew has been the subject of similar concerns before, but his first reaction was to defend Israel. In a separate cable obtained by ProPublica, he told Blinken and other leaders in Washington that” Israel is a trustworthy defense articles recipient” and his country team assessments ahead of past weapons sales have found that Israel’s “human rights record justifies the sale”.

Lew went even farther and said the IDF’s system for choosing targets is so” sophisticated and comprehensive” that, by defense attaché Schlereth’s estimation, it “meets and often exceeds our own standard”, according to the cable. Lew and Schlereth have made similar statements at internal meetings, according to two State Department officials who spoke to ProPublica. ( The Navy did not make Schlereth available for an interview or respond to a list of questions. )

In addition to numerous other incidents involving civilians, diplomats at the embassy also reported that Israel had dropped bombs on some of the embassy’s own employees at the start of the war.

As to why Lew’s cables failed to reflect that kind of information, one official said,” My most charitable explanation is that they may not have had the time or inclination to critically assess the Israelis ‘ answers”.

In Israel’s New York consulate, weapons procurement officers occupy two floors, processing hundreds of sales each year. One former Israeli officer who worked there claimed that while his American counterparts tried just as hard to sell them, he tried as hard to buy as many weapons as possible. ” It’s a business”, he said.

According to ProPublica, lobbyists for powerful corporations have intervened in the background to pressure and advance the deal if government officials took too long to process it.

Some of those lobbyists formerly held powerful positions as regulators in the State Department. In recent years, at least six high-ranking officials in the agency’s arms transfers bureau left their posts and joined lobbying firms and military contractors. In July, Jessica Lewis, the bureau’s assistant secretary, resigned and began working at Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck. The company is the largest lobbying firm in Washington, by lobbying revenue, and has represented the defense industry and countries including Saudi Arabia. ( Lewis and the company did not respond to requests for comment. )

Paul Kelly, who was the top congressional affairs official at the State Department between 2001 and 2005, during the US invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan, said he regularly “got leaned on” by the private sector to push sales to lawmakers for final approval. ” They would n’t bribe or threaten me, but they would say … ‘ When are you going to sign off on it and get it up to the Hill?'” he told ProPublica.

Three other State Department officials who currently or recently worked on military assistance said little has changed since then and companies that profit from the wars in Gaza and Ukraine frequently call or email. ( The agency representative told ProPublica that arms transfers are” not influenced by a particular company. ) The pressure also reaches lawmakers ‘ offices once they are notified of impending sales. Those measures include frequent phone calls and regular daytime meetings, according to an official familiar with the communications.

The efforts may have veered into dubious legal territory in some instances. In 2017, the Trump administration signed a$ 350 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia, an extension of Obama’s former policy before he suspended some sales because of humanitarian concerns. In the process of attacking Houthi militant targets in Yemen, the Saudis and their allies have used American-made jets and bombs for years, killing thousands of civilians.

The following February, the State Department was weighing whether to approve a sale of precision-guided missiles produced by Raytheon to Saudi Arabia. A vice president at the company named Tom Kelly — the former principal deputy assistant secretary of the State Department’s arms transfers bureau — emailed a former subordinate, Josh Paul. Kelly requested to schedule a meeting with Paul and a coworker to “talk through strategy” for advancing the sale, according to an email exchange.

Paul wrote back that such a meeting could be illegal. According to him,” we are prohibited by the Anti-Lobbying Act from coordinating legislative strategies with outside groups,” he said. ” However, I think the potential bumps in the road are relatively obvious”. Those bumps were a reference to recent media articles about mass civilian casualty incidents in Yemen.

” No worries,” Kelly said. ” I’m sure I’ll see you around”.

In response to requests for comment, Kelly and Raytheon did not respond.

The State Department ultimately signed off on the sale.

Mariam Elba contributed research.

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Don’t forget Japan’s Gamblers, Fraudsters, Dreamers & Spies – Asia Times

What if the rise of modern Japan was n’t shaped just by its politicians, academics, and company leaders but also by a motley crew of players, thieves, dreamers, and scouts? What if the people who had the biggest influence on Japan’s post-war conversion were n’t the historical figures but the strangers who lived in the dark?

Robert Whiting ‘s&nbsp, Gamblers, Fraudsters, Dreamers &amp, Spies: The Outsiders Who Shaped Modern Japan&nbsp, takes you on a journey into the lives of these very characters – risk-takers and rule-breakers who, through their daring and often illegal techniques, changed the face of the nation forever. &nbsp,

Whiting’s earlier works for as&nbsp, Tokyo Underworld&nbsp, and&nbsp, You Gotta Have Wa have explored both the legal underbelly and Japan’s love for baseball and in his latest work, Whiting brings us into the dark, complex world of people who never quite fit into Japan’s firm society but also managed to leave their mark. It navigates through a tricksters ‘ exhibition of personalities who defied convention and altered the course of the nation.

The authors ‘ characters range from post-war gang leaders and foreign spies to hustlers and intellectuals who saw Japan as a land of opportunity. Whiting skillfully uncovers the relationships between them, demonstrating how frequently their actions impacted the development of history in unintended methods.

Although Yoshio Kodama is not the main character in the book, I have a story about her, and I’ve also written about her in an article called” Who is Yoshio Kodama” ( ). –&nbsp, is often entertaining. Whiting wrote about Kodama in&nbsp, Tokyo Underworld&nbsp, but he pops up again in this guide.

Kodama’s history reads like a drama, blending high-level social influence, strong ties to organized crime, and secret involvement with the CIA. Kodama was a plumber, a nationalist, and a gentleman who understood the power of working in the darkness, which is the kind of personality Whiting excels at monitoring.

And, believe me, there are so many excellent reports in&nbsp, Gamblers, Fraudsters, Dreamers &amp, Spies: The Strangers Who Shaped Modern Japan&nbsp, that you’ll come back to it over and over again to learn. What I really like about Whiting’s new text is that you can learn the pages at any time you want and return and read it over and over again.

Amazon.com: Gamblers, Fraudsters, Dreamers & Spies: The Outsiders Who ...

Kodama’s lifestyle, like many of the different characters in this book, completely encapsulates the book’s key theme: Often, it’s not the constitutional or spiritual figures who shape a nation, but the outsiders willing to take risks and bend the rules to succeed. &nbsp,

Whiting has a real gift for turning history into an engaging narrative. This book is both thrilling and informative thanks to his thorough research and a storytelling that almost seems to be cinematic. The gamblers and fraudsters he writes about were n’t just criminals; they were visionaries who saw Japan as a land of opportunities, frequently daring to make moves that the conventional power structures could n’t possibly imagine.

In the same way, the spies and dreamers he encounters saw Japan as a crucial battleground during the Cold War, and their covert actions affected both Japanese and international policy. I was surprised to also read about a CIA agent who has the same last name as mine and I wrote about it on my&nbsp, substack, &nbsp, too.

Charles Kades, a stellar GHQ figure, with his mistress, Viscountess Tsuruyo Torio. ( Robert Whiting Substack ).

In&nbsp, Gamblers, Fraudsters, Dreamers &amp, Spies, Whiting also shows that it was n’t always men who played dubious roles in shaping post-war Japan.

Figures with significant political influence included Viscountess Tsuruyo Torio, who had a scandalous relationship with Colonel Charles Kades, a senior US Occupation force in Japan after World War II, and had a scandalous relationship with him.

She proves that women, too, could wield power and stir controversy behind the scenes.

Kades, a Harvard-educated lawyer, played a crucial role in drafting Japan’s post-war constitution. Despite being married, he openly visited Viscountess Torio, with her husband’s knowledge and approval.

The Viscount even seemed proud of their union, hosting Kades while still maintaining his own extramarital affairs, which led to a notable scandal.

The Moonies story is by far my absolute favorite book chapter. The CIA was a crucial component of the establishment of the Korean Central Intelligence Agency (KCIA ) in 1961, which was modeled after the CIA itself, in an effort to contain communism in East Asia after the Korean War. The KCIA’s goal was to safeguard South Korea from communist influence, particularly from the North, while also serving as a tool for US geopolitical goals in the area.

Sun Myung Moon’s Unification Church, a religious organization with vehement anti-communist ideology, quickly became associated with the KCIA. Brigadier General Kim Jhong-pil, the KCIA’s founder, embedded several agents within the church, recognizing its utility in combating communism. &nbsp,

Rev. Sun Myung Moon, founder of Unification Church, dead at 92 | CTV News
Rev. Sun Myung Moon, founder of Unification Church.

With CIA backing, the Unification Church expanded rapidly, aligning with pro-American political forces in both South Korea and Japan. The Unification Church’s influence spread internationally, particularly in the US, where it was involved in various political campaigns, and the CIA provided initial seed money and contacts to Moon’s ventures in the United States.

Moon’s organization was seen as a tool for shaping US foreign policy, and its support for right-wing politicians strengthened its ties to intelligence agencies. The church’s anti-communist stance and the covert support of the CIA and KCIA helped it develop into a political force, using funds raised abroad, but primarily from Japan, to further its goals.

Whiting brilliantly weaves the complex relationship between the Moonies and Japan’s political elite, particularly with his grandson Shinzo Abe and former prime minister Nobusuke Kishi.

The church gained influence within Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party ( LDP ), growing in popularity with the KCIA and receiving financial support from powerful Japanese ultranationalists like Kodama. Kishi’s ties to the church allowed the LDP to benefit from donations, free labor and political support.

Abe continued to have close ties to the church as a result of decades of this alliance. Abe even congratulated Unification Church members as late as 2021, extending the family’s relationship with the organization. In the end, his 2022 assassination resulted from the connection.

The assassin blamed the church for his family’s financial ruin ( his mother had donated vast sums to the church, driving the family into bankruptcy ) and this personal connection, combined with the church’s broader controversial practices in Japan, motivated the assassin to target Abe, believing that Abe’s political support for the church was responsible for his family’s downfall​.

Shinzo Abe: How the former Japan PM's assassination unfolded - BBC News
Tetsuya Yamagami, former prime minister Shinzo Abe, was shot shortly after the incident.

For someone like me, who has long been fascinated by the intersection of politics, power, and morality, this book is an absolute gem. My own interest in Japan’s hidden influencers is deeply influenced by Whiting’s investigation into the lives of the characters. It’s these untold stories, of people who live on the margins but exert enormous influence, that truly shape a country’s identity.

Whiting captures this theme brilliantly, drawing the reader into a world where the stakes are high, the moves are bold, and the consequences are often game-changing. The book does n’t glorify these figures, but does argue that their roles were essential to Japan’s development, shedding light on a darker side of history that is often overlooked.

In&nbsp, Gamblers, Fraudsters, Dreamers &amp, Spies: The Outsiders Who Shaped Modern Japan, &nbsp, Whiting presents a variety of compelling stories from Japan’s postwar underworld. For me, three of the most fascinating things are:

    The Allies and the Soviet Union battled for influence in Japan after World War II. Whiting delves into the Canon Agency, a black-ops spy network created by US Army Major Jack Canon. A formidable Texan with a background in explosives, Canon was given the task of conducting covert operations to expel communist sympathizers and Soviet spies. His agency was involved in sabotage, drug smuggling, and even kidnapping double agents like Wataru Kaji, all in the name of keeping Japan under American influence. Canon recruited a diverse group of Euro-American, Nisei ( second-generation Japanese-American ), and Korean-American agents, setting new standards for postwar covert operations. [ Whitting’s writings on the Canon agency have been published or republished by Asia Times. ]

  1. The Girard Incident: &nbsp, Whiting details the killing of 46-year-old Japanese woman Naka Sakai by United States Army soldier William S. Girard in Soma, Gunma Prefecture, on January 30, 1957. When Girard shot an empty grenade cartridge at her, apparently for his own amusement, Saki, a housewife who was collecting shell casings from a military base to sell for scrap, was killed. The incident led to disputes between Japan and the U.S. Army over jurisdiction, which resulted in Wilson v. Girard, a US Supreme Court case. The US Army demoted Girard, and the incident resulted in a reduction in US troops stationed in Japan. Girard also received a three-year suspended sentence from Japanese authorities.
  2. The Korean Taxi Barons: Whiting profiles the rise of the Aoki family, ethnic Koreans who overcame discrimination to build MK Taxi, one of Japan’s largest taxi firms. Sadao Aoki, the family patriarch, battled both Japanese taxi competitors and government regulators, who were reluctant to see an ethnic Korean succeed. His son Masaaki Aoki, despite facing racism in both Japan and the US, eventually took over the business, leading it to new heights, including introducing revolutionary practices like late-night taxi services. A cliffhanging book can be written about Masaaki’s demise.

Gamblers, Fraudsters, Dreamers &amp, Spies&nbsp, is a must-read for anyone intrigued by Japan’s modern history, especially those curious about the unsung individuals who played critical roles in its rise as a global power. Whiting invites us to consider a more nuanced and complex version of history, where the influence of outsiders and misfits is equal to, if not more, that of the famous figures we read about in books.

You wo n’t be disappointed by the tales of ambition, risk, and rebellion that shaped the Japan we know today.

( A footnote: Whiting was incredible in my documentary film&nbsp, The Ones Left Behind: The Plight of Single Mothers in Japan ��


Rionne’s Writings

Rionne” Fujiwara” McAvoy is a Tokyo-based Australian professional wrestler and filmmaker whose documentary” The Ones Left Behind: The Plight of Single Mothers in Japan” recently began showing in K’s Theaters in Tokyo’s Shinjuku. This article, originally published on his Substack, is republished with permission.

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The Washington Post’s witch hunt on Chinese Americans – Asia Times

How China extended its suppression into an American city was the title of a new Washington Post article.

The Post claims that anti-China organizations who turned out to protest Xi’s visit were violently attacked at the 2023 APEC summit in San Francisco by Chinese American community leaders and leaders who allegedly met under the leadership of the Communist Party of China ( CPC ) during the visit. &nbsp,

This, the Post states, was all part of a Chinese political gloomy tale of international repression, directing those within” diaspora groups” to thwart rebel anti-China voices elsewhere. &nbsp, But the exact opposite is true.

In reality, it is the billionaire-owned Washington Post that is quashing the free speech of regular Americans in support of the Washington leadership’s dangerous new Cold War plan. &nbsp,

What truly happened&nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Let’s look at what actually happened at the APEC mountain, the funding resources for anti-China organizations like the Hong Kong Democracy Council and Individuals for a Free Tibet, and the Post’s exceptional use of facial recognition technology to identify and objective leaders in the Chinese American society.

As an observer of a conflict between the anti-China parties and the Xi welcomers, I witnessed the exact reverse of what the Washington Post claims. The anti-China protest were the most well-trained and organized organization I have always witnessed.

All these photos and videos that they produced? We did everything to them, but they charged into our traces, threatened us and created conflict. Finally, at the height of the conflict, they began filming on their smartphones and telling fabricated accounts of our attacks. They edited the picture to make it appear as though they were recording it on camera. &nbsp,

When mainstream media reframes events to support a predetermined anti-China narrative, you see an extremely advanced information operation exclusively designed to provoke also peaceful welcomers. &nbsp, &nbsp,

In other words, this was a very sophisticated and organized activity that adhered to a formula used by the US creation. In an effort to achieve a significant propaganda victory, it skillfully combined resources, systems, and complex training of a relatively modest team of provocateurs. &nbsp, &nbsp,

There were a number of different verbal exchanges between the anti-China activists and the Xi welcomers. Here, we’ll study two examples tightly.

The aircraft bridge incident&nbsp,

One incident occurred at a gate close to the road where Xi was scheduled to take his return to China from the aircraft. Xi welcomers were waving Chinese banners and were standing on the gate wall facing the path. &nbsp,

Eventually, the anti-China activists brought their unique Hong Kong and Tibetan banners onto the bridge. Then, they suddenly turned and&nbsp, charged&nbsp, into the Xi welcomers from behind, trying to push the welcomers apart and capture their location on the bridge wall. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Here’s a picture of that fee taken at that moment: &nbsp,

Photo provided by Michael Wong.

You can see how the Xi welcomers were completely caught off guard as the anti-China demonstrators gathered behind them and swarmed into their rates. &nbsp,

A fresh Tibetan rebel vehemently pushed her manner through our lines. The Tibetan woman aggressively pushed our people aside, all the time yelling”, Do n’t touch me, do n’t touch me! ” as she was actually pushing her way through us. &nbsp,

They were extremely skilled at playing the victim while really being the aggressors, especially when making videotapes. It looked evidently rehearsed. &nbsp,

The young Tibetan activist girl placed herself in a position of encirclement, pushing past all of us, and coming to the front of the bridge wall, away from her own citizens. This was great for their video.

She kept yelling”, Do n’t touch me! ” the whole day pretending to be the target, &nbsp, i. electronic. that of a young girl fenced in by her political critics, a tremendous advertising video for their area. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The anti-China protesters started recording on their phones while dictating a clearly fraudulent, prepared script that claimed the Xi welcomers started the conflict, even though the welcomers were actually caught off guard and ambushed from behind, waiting until the two sides were locked together facing each other.

The conflict lasted until the police arrived, perhaps an hour later, and finally divided the two parties. &nbsp,

Fake” Yellow Emperor”

Another incident was recorded by the anti-China protesters themselves and posted on Radio Free Asia:

YouTube video

]embedded content]

If you look&nbsp, closely, you first see a Xi welcomer ( wearing a red scarf ) down on the ground with another man – an anti-China protester – on top of him, while other Xi welcomers ( wearing red items ) try to pull him off. Then a larger man in a yellow Chinese emperor costume&nbsp, charges in&nbsp, and punches a smaller Xi welcomer. &nbsp, &nbsp,

This is followed by anti-China protesters trying to&nbsp, forcibly&nbsp, seize the Chinese flags away from some Xi welcomers, followed by the larger man in a yellow costume again charging in.

The anti-China protesters keep moving in on them, much like the situation on the bridge to the airport road, and the Xi welcomers wearing red items and holding Chinese flags are pushed up against a railing behind them.

Hong Kong terror comes to America&nbsp,

The anti-China protesters ‘ 2023 APEC summit’s tactics were far more sophisticated than those that are typically employed by either the left or the right in the United States. &nbsp,

These tactics, however, are in line with those employed in the 2019 Hong Kong riots, which involved violent rioters attacking anyone who disagrees with them for ten months. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The Hong Kong Democracy Council, one of the organizations that supported the 2019 rioters in Hong Kong, was one of the groups that spearheaded the Xi welcomers ‘ attacks on the US, which has been accused of having ties to the US Central Intelligence Agency ( CIA ).

The anti-China protesters merely introduced those strategies to the US. The South China Morning Post documented the riots in their nine-minute video summary”, A year of anti-government protests in Hong Kong”: &nbsp,

YouTube video

]embedded content]

The tactics used in this demo were basically a&nbsp, version of what occurred in Hong Kong in 2019, only without the thousands of&nbsp, rocks, umbrellas and firebombs ( Molotov cocktails ) that they used in Hong Kong. But the lies, choreographed and taped provocations, &nbsp, and the aggressors faking being the victims are the same game.

The mainstream media here, like the Western media in Hong Kong, was a weaponized accessory to this violence: completely biased, framing the rioters as peaceful protesters, ignoring evidence to the contrary, and acting as a propaganda multiplier for their violence. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Nury Vittachi ‘s&nbsp, book, &nbsp” ,The Other Side of the Story: A Secret War in Hong Kong,” &nbsp, documents these tactics in great detail: &nbsp,

Who were the Xi welcomers? They were senior citizens of the Chinese American community, many of whom had no history of violence or aggression, who arrived to welcome the president of China meeting with the president of the United States and who hoped for peace between their new and old nations. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The anti-China protesters were mostly young people. Would a group of many senior citizens attack a group of teenagers? It does n’t make sense. &nbsp,

This is extreme hypocrisy on the part of the Washington Post, not to mention journalistic malpractice. It is using its support for transnational rioters from Hong Kong and Tibet to silence Chinese Americans who are exercising their free speech exactly what it was accusing these innocent seniors of doing. It did so using unethical, police state-like methods, including the use of facial recognition technology. &nbsp,

Chinese Americans who came out have stated that the spotlight placed on them by the Washington Post article has made them anxious to speak freely. This kind of media lynching not only silences Chinese Americans, but also makes them feel like they’re on their backs. &nbsp,

Due to anti-China propaganda, Chinese and Asian people have already experienced terrible physical attacks. This will make things worse, putting all Asian Americans in real danger, not just for Chinese Americans. &nbsp,

Repressive methods, repressive goals&nbsp,

How the Washington Post created the report is one of the most significant and astounding aspects of this story. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The Washington Post deployed facial recognition technology&nbsp, to surveil, identify – and slander – Chinese American community members exercising their free speech. The use of facial recognition technology is a flawed, imperfect biometric that courts have largely outlawed. Without science, it is what experts refer to as a forensic.

According to a 2019 article from The Washington Post, facial recognition is unreliable because it can contain bias and errors. White men are more likely than men from other races to be misidentified 100 times more often than men from China and Africa. &nbsp,

In fact, many countries, states and cities, including San Francisco, have banned the use of facial recognition technology by their government departments. In the EU, it is completely prohibited. &nbsp,

In particular, it was prohibited in San Francisco to stop the abuse the Washington Post article described as intended to stop organized crime from utilizing it to identify and target people at large gatherings who are legitimately exercising their constitutional rights. &nbsp,

The US mainstream media’s support of quasi-police state actions in the name of a one-sided anti-China agenda is chilling. One of the anti-China demonstrators was the only one who was detained on the scene by the San Francisco police and charged with numerous counts of serious felonies for beating and seriously injuring a member of the Chinese American community, according to The Post. &nbsp,

New McCarthy era

This is all a part of a new McCarthy era in America that bans all forms of dissent and silences free speech. Just as Senator&nbsp, Joseph McCarthy&nbsp, persecuted dissident Americans during Cold War 1, the establishment is now doing the same in today’s new Cold War 2. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Nancy Pelosi, a member of Congress, recently urged the FBI to look into Code Pink as Chinese agents in protest of the genocide in Gaza. Three members of a Black Socialist group, the Uhuru 3, were charged with being Russian agents and put on trial in September 2024 for allegedly opposing the Ukrainian War.

Young university students who are protesting the Gaza war are being detained and prohibited from going back to school. And Chinese American scientists were arrested under Trump’s” China Initiative,” which may be reinitiated soon. &nbsp,

These are dangerous, repressive times to be an American. The crackdown has the makings of an all-out war against free speech and dissent, sparing no individual, group or media platform that puts forth a perspective different from Washington’s official line. &nbsp, &nbsp,

This totalitarian approach, silencing opposition groups to manufacture consent, history shows is often a precursor to war or harbinger of fascism, or both. &nbsp,

To combat this, we should band together and work together to oppose this with all of our efforts. And we should call out corrupt media that seeks to oppress and erode our rights. If we do not stand together, we will all be picked off individually. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Former Veterans For Peace national vice president Michael Wong currently sits on its national board. He co-chairs the China Working Group for Veterans For Peace and is one of Pivot To Peace’s co-founders.

He has been published in the anthologies”, Veterans of War, Veterans of Peace, “edited by Maxine Hong Kingston”, A Matter of Conscience,” by William Short and Willa Seidenberg, and in” Waging Peace in Vietnam, “edited by Ron Carver, David Cortright, and Barbara Doherty.

He is also featured in the documentary film”, Sir! No Sir! is a retired social worker with a Master of Social Work degree, and she is” about the GI anti-war movement from the Vietnam era.” &nbsp,

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Australia’s military as a force for sexual abuse – Asia Times

In their most recent book, the first independent investigation into military administrative abuse in the American Defence Force, Ben Wadham and James Connor explain that “participants expected the costs of war, but they were not prepared for the prices of service.”

Warrior, Soldier, Brigand draws on interviews with almost 70 victims and analyses every review and investigation into military society ( 35 in full ) since the Vietnam War.

It’s a heartbreaking accounts of more than a century of common administrative misuse in Australia’s military forces. Brutality was carefully inflicted on young recruits, who were beaten, violated and humiliated under the justification of “bastardization”. In a hypersexualized culture, sexism and gender-based crime were widespread.

Women were constantly at risk of sexual abuse from their bosses and peers. This misuse was often compounded by a” next assault”, where patients were punished for reporting, with managerial abuse and “mob fairness”.

The terms “warrior, soldier, brigand”, which describe different military identities, are contested ( as the authors concede ). The Brereton review, which found” reliable” data to indict 25 current or former American special forces personnel in the immoral dying of 39 people in Afghanistan, also found that alleged war criminals self-identified as “warrior champions”.

However, these terms are not used by the authors to explain their findings. They use the key values they identify in Australian military culture: martial, fraternal and exceptional. These values, they show, are twisted into an obsession with violence, exclusivity and elitism within the Australian Defence Force.

The book begins by outlining the” character of military institutional abuse” before focusing on different kinds of abuse in three eras: bastardization ( 1969–87 ), gender-based violence ( 1987–96 ), and administrative abuse and military justice reform ( 1996–2011 ). This violence, the authors write, serves to maintain the military institution.

The Australian Defence Force’s cultural analyses from 2011 to 2022 are the focus of the final two chapters. They provide insight into survivors ‘ experiences of abuse as well as how patterns of abuse continue to exist today. Finally, the book explores the ethicalness of international organizations like the Australian Defence Force.

Hazing or torture?

Bastardization is described as a form of fraternal violence. It brutalizes those perceived to be inferior to foster a brotherhood that is “exclusive, defensive, and aggressive in sustaining its dominance”.

The authors trace the origins of bastardization to “fagging” at British private schools, a custom that used older boys to treat younger boys as servants and obediently humiliated them. Similar practices immediately emerged when the Royal Military College was established at Duntroon in 1911.

Bastardization is based on the idea that separating people allows them to be reunited as a whole. These hazing rituals foster lifelong bonds between the perpetrators:” As young men advance in rank and status, their brotherhood extends to ADF leadership and governance.”

The details of bastardization are horrific. Many times I believed the term” torture” would have been more appropriate to describe the physical, sexual, and psychological abuse Australian service personnel were subject to by one another.

Collective hazing rituals included being tied to moving vehicles, covered in foul chemicals, forced to eat bodily waste, thrown off ladders and tables with fire hoses, and belted with knotted wet towels and belts. Blanket bashings, sleep deprivation and gang rape were described as routine.

Sexual violence was particularly pronounced. Basetardization is “heavily invested in certain body parts,” including forcing victims to sex with superiors, injuring genitalia, and penetrating body parts with objects. According to Wadham and Connor, ADF members must” choose between being a victim or an offender” because they frequently “escape being the victim of violence.”

The authors excluded “lower levels of bastardization” from their study because” they are generally intended for training”. In this sense, the book parallels the Brereton report, in which only clear-cut cases of war crimes were examined and “fog of war” incidents were excluded.

Yet, just as examining “fog of war” incidents reveals how deliberate war crimes were disguised as legitimate operations, examining how these “lower levels” of violence developed, operate, and are justified would reveal how brutality evolved to become standard practice in ADF training.

General Angus Campbell, the head of the Australian Defence Force, presents the Brereton Report findings in Canberra. &nbsp, Image: Mick Tsikas / AAP via The Conversation

Date rape, morning porn and ‘ survivor sex ‘

In the 1980s, women constituted 6.5 % of the ADF. By the 1990s, that percentage had nearly doubled, and today, women make up around 20 % of the Australian military.

Sexual violence against women was becoming more prevalent in the ADF as the gender dynamics changed. Wadham and Connor argue the growing presence of women intensified the sexualized culture of the military to reiterate the “white, hypermasculinist” fraternity.

A method of humiliation and reputation destruction was used during the date rape. Sexual assault was often done by superiors, in view of other serving members, and always followed by a” code of silence, victim-blaming and discouragement from commanders and military police”. One interviewee sought support after being assaulted, but was warned by the military psychologist:” Defense does n’t look fondly on people that see a psychologist”.

Some women were coerced into” survival sex” in exchange for protection due to constant threats and acts of violence from peers. In one of the book’s most heartbreaking testimonies, a young aviator was forced into sleeping with her sergeant for years to stop other abuse. Then I learned that he was actually responsible for the years-long stalking and sexual assault that had taken place.

A deeply misogynistic culture supported sexual violence against women. Harassment of women was a “daily occurrence” in the 1980s. By the 1990s, women reported practices such as “pornos in the mornos” – watching porn at morning tea in communal spaces.

Harassment and intimidation continue to this day: in 2018, one woman claimed she was” choosing not to eat, not go out, not do any sites” to avoid the executive officer who was constantly harassing her. When she reported him, she was informed that” I would have had a better case if I had allowed it to advance to rape.”

More than 300 abusive terms that reduced women to literal sexual objects were included in a 1993 book of cadet slang, according to Wadham and Connor. These included:” a body to wank into, cum bucket, fuck bag, life support system for a cunt”. This language was taught daily and was steeped in the culture from the top down.

One veteran claimed that her instructor “would talk about how to get the daughter thrown in for a dollar and where to get the cheapest sex in Asia.” The authors analyze the function of banter in the military, explaining that “lingo” works to” create a shared culture” but can also be used to “target, exclude, belittle”. The sexualized “banter” was frequently used to stifle women and was” the first step in creating cultures of abuse and violence” ( p. 1 ).

The book’s focus on gender dynamics in the military is a key strength. However, race is not afforded the same scrutiny.

Wadham and Connor stress the whiteness of the Australian military identity and acknowledge the deaths of non-white soldiers ( suicide and murder ). However, more research on the racial dynamics of institutional abuse would have helped, especially given the strategic significance of ADF-placed cultural diversity.

Punishing the victims

The ADF’s prevalence of administrative abuse, known as a” second assault” after reporting physical or sexual abuse, is one of its most important findings. This intentionally plagiarizes the hierarchy and disciplinary frameworks in order to punish those who violate silence.

This top-down abuse is often reinforced with “mob justice” in the form of alienation, harassment, sabotage and physical violence by peers. Anyone who has the guts to speak out about institutional violence is intended to be broken by administrative abuse. It demonstrates institutional aversion to handling other forms of abuse.

The overwhelming evidence of administrative abuse in the book contradicts the ADF’s claim that it is promoting cultural change and weeding out “bad apples.”

Wadham and Connor show that the ADF has overlooked, condoned, minimized and covered up widespread institutional abuse” for more than a century”. They come to the conclusion that the ADF simply “tinkers around the edges” when responding to scandals. Efforts at redress, they conclude, were poorly implemented.

The Defence Abuse Task Force response, for instance, was described by the ADF Association’s Victims of Abuse as “more concerned with keeping a lid on things than fully supporting victims” after the Skype sex scandal in 2011.

Ongoing efforts toward military reform, they say, are more about” slowing scrutiny and defusing critique” than addressing the core problems. Meanwhile, they show that cultures of bastardization, gender-based violence and mob justice persist at Duntroon.

Former ADFA cadets Dylan Deblaquiere and Daniel McDonald (center ) both left the ACT Supreme Court with their legal team after being found guilty in the ADFA Skype sex trial. &nbsp, Photo: Penny Bradfield / AAP via The Conversation

A damning indictment

Warrior, Soldier, Brigand is a damning indictment of the Australian Defence Force. Many survivors endured excruciating trauma and were forced to leave their jobs by an organization that purports to protect Australians. Many did not survive.

The book shows that military institutional abuse weakens Australia’s defense capability. Individuals are incapable of focusing on their work because they are aggressive toward peers and superiors. Many are forced to leave the service – either by discharge, or suicide.

Institutional abuse breeds a military force that is more likely to use excessive and unlawful violence among those who remain. The authors also question whether an ethical military could exist, but their own research suggests that the Australian military has n’t tried.

Mia Martin Hobbs is research fellow, Deakin University

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Big Tech manipulating research into its harm to society – Asia Times

Scientists have been gathering information for almost ten years that the social media platform Facebook heavily amplifies low-quality information and false information.

So it came as a surprise when a study from the journal Science in 2023 discovered that Facebook’s systems were n’t major contributors to propaganda during the 2020 US election.

This study was funded by Facebook’s family firm, Meta. The author team included a number of Meta employees. It attracted extensive media coverage. It was also celebrated by Meta’s leader of international affairs, Nick Clegg, who said it showed the company’s systems have” no discernible effect on polarisation, social attitudes or beliefs”.

However, a team of researchers led by Chhandak Bagch from the University of Massachusetts Amherst has just questioned the results. They assert in an eLetter that was also published in Science that the study’s findings were likely the result of Facebook’s engine being honed while it was being conducted.

The initial study’s authors acknowledge in a response to an eLetter that their findings “might had been unique” if Facebook had used a various algorithm. However, they continue to support their findings.

The entire scandal highlights the issues that Big Tech financing and facilitating exploration into their own products cause. Additionally, it emphasizes the critical need for more independent social media platform supervision.

Stores of uncertainty

Major technology has begun to invest a lot in scientific research into its goods. Additionally, it has made significant investments in institutions more broadly. For instance, Meta and its commander, Mark Zuckerberg, &nbsp, have collectively donated tens of millions&nbsp, of money to more than 100 colleges and universities across the United States.

This is comparable to what Big Tobacco once accomplished.

In the middle of the 1950s, smoke manufacturers organized a countermeasure to discredit the growing body of research that suggested smoking had a number of serious health issues, including cancers. It was more about carefully funding studies and bringing about conclusive findings than directly falsifying or manipulating study.

There is no conclusive evidence that smoking causes cancer, so this helped to reinforce the idea. This in turn helped tobacco companies stay in the forefront of a public image of duty and “goodwill” well into the 1990s.

Vintage magazines with tobacco advertising from the sixties.
Big Tobacco ran a plan to spread fear about smoking’s health outcomes. Photo: Ralf Liebhold / Shutterstock via The Talk

A good flip

According to the Meta-funded study that was published in Science in 2023, Facebook’s news feed algorithm reduced consumer exposure to unreliable media content.

The Facebook Open Research and Transparency group “provided large help in the execution the entire job,” according to the authors, who acknowledged that Meta did not have the right to prepublication approval.

Twitter users were randomly chosen to be a control group or therapy group as part of the study’s empirical design.

The treatment party received a news feed with material presented in reverse chronological order, while the control group continued to use Facebook’s analytic information supply. The research sought to compare the effects of these two news feeds on how frequently users encounter probably false and deceptive information from untrustworthy news sources.

The study was strong and well-designed. However, Meta changed its news feed algorithm to produce more trustworthy information information during the brief period of its conduct. In doing so, it changed the handle state of the test.

The decline in misinformation reported in the initial study was probably the result of the analytic changes. But these alterations were short-term: a few months later in March 2021, Meta reverted the news feed algorithm back to the original.

Meta said in a speech to Science about the controversy that it made the modifications apparent to the experts at the time and that it adheres to Clegg’s assertions regarding the findings in the paper.

Exceptional power

The study served as a model for reducing the impact of analytic content curation on issues like misinformation and political polarization by downplaying the impact of social media algorithms on issues like misinformation and social polarization.

To be clear, I do n’t want the people who conducted the original 2023 study to be misled. The real issue is that social media companies have access to experts ‘ information and are able to control their techniques in a way that affects the results of the reports they fund.

Additionally, social media companies have the authority to promote specific reports on the same platform that the studies are focused on. In turn, this helps shape public opinion. It may lead to a situation where people start to doubt and be skeptical about the effects of systems, or to become sceptical.

This kind of energy is exceptional. Even large cigarette was unable to influence the public’s perception of itself in such a direct way.

All of this underscores the need for websites to be required to offer both real-time updates about changes to their computational systems and large-scale data entry.

When platforms handle entry to the “product”, they also control the technology around its effects. In the end, these self-research cash schemes help platforms distract attention from the need for more accountability and accountability for their decisions.

Timothy Graham is a Queensland University of Technology associate professor of electronic media.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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