Trump’s economic program would weaken the US – and Australia – Asia Times

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It’s time to take Donald Trump seriously. Betting markets say it’s as likely as not he will be elected US president in four weeks.

And unlike in 2016 when his program wasn’t clearly defined, he has set out plainly what he intends to do. Which means it’s possible to model the consequences.

The three Trump promises with the greatest economic impact are

  • the deportation of millions of US residents
  • steep restrictions on imports, especially from China
  • presidential influence over interest rates.

The best way to model the consequences is with an established model of the kind used by the International Monetary Fund and central banks around the world rather than one set up for the purpose that could be seen as designed to favor or not favor Trump.

The Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics has just done that, noting that during Trump’s first term as president he “by and large” did what he said he would do.

It finds

ironically, despite his “make the foreigners pay” rhetoric, Trump’s package of policies does more damage to the US economy than to any other in the world.

No other country in the world would be hurt by Trump’s program as much as the US – not even China – although several US allies would suffer, including Australia, which would be the fourth-worst hit by the most extreme version of what Trump is proposing.

Mass deportations

Trump has repeatedly promised the “largest domestic deportation operation in American history,” targeting up to 20 million unauthorized immigrants, including about 8.3 million thought to be in the workforce.

He says his model is Operation Wetback – a 1956 Eisenhower administration program that used military-style tactics to deport 1.3 million Mexicans.

The institute says Eisenhower’s success makes it easy to believe Trump could remove 1.3 million immigrant workers. It has modeled two scenarios: removing 1.3 million and 8.3 million, both over two years in 2025 and 2026.

Both slash employment, including the employment of non-immigrants, both push up inflation, which eventually is brought under control, and both make the US a less attractive place to invest, which benefits much of the rest of the world.

The institute says the low and high scenarios differ “only by the degree of damage inflicted on people, households, firms and the overall economy”.

Huge tariff hikes

Trump wants to increase every tariff on goods imported to the US by 10 percentage points, including where there is at present no tariff. And he wants at least a 60% tariff on imports from China. The institute has modelled both, with and without retaliatory tariffs from China and the rest of the world.

It finds, unsurprisingly, that extra tariffs push up the price of US imports and the prices of US-produced goods that compete with imports. Many are used as inputs in manufacturing, which means US manufacturing suffers (which is probably not what Trump had in mind).

Fewer imports mean less demand for foreign exchange within the US, which means a higher US dollar which makes US exports less competitive. The US economy is weaker as a result, although China’s is weaker still and Australia’s is weakened as much as the US given its role in providing resources to China.

Tampering with the Fed

Trump has raised the prospect of more presidential influence over interest rates, saying he thinks he has “a better instinct than, in many cases” the board of US Federal Reserve. This could be achieved by requiring the president to be consulted on rate decisions or by appointing a compliant chair.

However it’s done, the institute’s “conservative” assumption based on what happens in developing countries with less central bank independence is that it will push inflation two percentage points higher.

The modeled result is capital flight. While the US economy is initially stronger than it would have been because of the Fed’s willingness to tolerate higher inflation, after a few years it is weaker and every other economy is stronger.

When all the measures are combined, under the extreme scenarios the US economy is 6.7% weaker than it would have been by 2035 and Australia’s is 0.2% weaker. Under the more modest scenarios, the US economy is 1.6% weaker and Australia’s is 0.06% weaker.

Why not examine Harris?

Despite a history of non-partisanship, the Peterson Institute is prepared for criticism. It points out that the economic model it used is regarded as the best in the world for scenario planning and is Australian, built by Warwick McKibbin of the Australian National University.

And it says it has modeled the Trump policies rather than the Harris policies because only Trump’s represent a departure from business as usual.

As the Institute’s president, Adam Posen, put it in Washington last month, the Harris campaign has said it will not impose across-the-board tariffs, will not engage in mass deportations and will not interfere with the independence of the US Federal Reserve.

The Trump campaign has indicated it will do all three.

It’s entirely possible that in office Trump wouldn’t do everything he proposed while campaigning, and it’s entirely possible that he would change course if what was doing damaged the US in the way the modeling suggests.

But there’s something to be said for taking people at their word, at least to get an idea of what we could be in store for after a knife-edge election.

Peter Martin is a visiting fellow at the Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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US election: Latinos hold the key to swinging Pennsylvania – Asia Times

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Some Democratic managers suggested that an endorsement from Puerto Rican saving performer Bad Bunny may have a greater impact on the election, especially in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, where about 300, 000 available Puerto Rican voters are located. In early September 2024, Taylor Swift posted a message to her 284 million followers on Instagram.

But when many Americans think of Pennsylvania’s deindustrialized northeast counties– including national bellwethers such as Northampton – they may consider more of Billy Joel’s” Allentown” than Poor Bunny’s” Una Velita“, a song about the aftermath of Hurricane Maria.

As a professor of history and the director of Latina/o Studies at Penn State, I believe that both the famous singer-songwriter and the Grammy-winning master of reggaeton and capture can contribute to the understanding of the social environment in the Keystone State, which is commonly believed to be the site of the election’s decisive outcome.

Man wearing multicolored and multipatterned puffer jacket and chunky necklaces holds neon green microphone
In Puerto Rico, Bad Bunny has n’t resisted running for president, giving him the chance to support a member. Photo: Frazer Harrison via Getty Images / The Talk

Closing down all businesses

In 1982, when Billy Joel recorded his melancholy song about employees left on because” they’re closing all the companies down”, he was generally describing the situation in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, 6 kilometers from Allentown.

The huge Bethlehem Steel Corp. began to lay off tens of thousands of employees as early as the 1970s. But Joel found that not much ballad with” Bethlehem”, so he used the neighboring town instead.

By the 1970s, Pennsylvania’s smaller commercial places such as Bethlehem, Hazleton, York, Reading and Lancaster were losing people and strength, and in many cases had been declining for years.

And for many Americans, especially those outside Pennsylvania, the image of these cities has n’t changed since. They also consider cities that are crowded by bright factory workers.

YouTube video

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Growing Latino appearance

However, Allentown, Bethlehem, and another Pennsylvania’s older commercial locations have benefited in part from the arrival of new people, the majority Hispanic from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. These visitors have assisted in restoring population growth, stabilizing housing industry, and supplying labour to fresh sectors like warehousing and transportation since the 1990s.

A higher Latino proportion than Los Angeles can now be found in Allentown at 54 %, which is higher than that of Los Angeles.

Lancaster and York, which are 40 % and 38 % Latino, respectively, have significantly larger proportions of Latinos than Chicago and New York. And Reading, with 69 % Latinos, is almost as Latino as Miami, at 70 %. Of course, those big towns have a much larger electorate than the general population.

Latinos are settling in these places for three reasons. They typically have a large number of warehousing and shipping jobs, cheap accommodation, and a sense of community, especially in comparison to New York City, where many of these new residents are immigrants from rather than Puerto Rico or the Dominican Republic.

Because of the labor movement, industrialized towns like Allentown, Bethlehem, and Reading have long been Democratic strongholds. And they continue to be, despite the fact that both union influence and Hispanic voter leanings have contributed to this.

In contrast to 34 % who say the same about the Republican Party, 60 % of Latino adults in the United States believe the Democratic Party represents the interests of “people like them” in a survey from Pew Research Center for 2022.

There were more than 1 million Latinos in Pennsylvania as of the 2020 U.S. census, which is the first time this number has increased to more than 1.1 million. Around 580, 000 eligible voters are included in this, despite the fact that Latinos typically register and cast ballots much less frequently than non-Latino white and black voters.

It’s undoubtedly oversimplified to attribute a state or national margin of victory to just one demographic, whether it was Latinos in 2024, office-park dads in the 1990s, or office-park dads in the 2000s.

But in a very close election like this one, small shifts in the margins among key groups, such as Latino voters in Pennsylvania, can determine who becomes president.

Puerto Ricans lean Democrat

The Latino vote includes a wide range of nationalities and identities, and partisan preferences greatly differ among them.

For example, Mexicans and Puerto Ricans have shown the greatest loyalty to the Democratic Party, while Cubans are famously the most Republican-leaning, followed by Venezuelans.

Moreover, Pennsylvania’s Hispanic population shows a very different distribution from the national scene. Across the U. S., people of Mexican ancestry account for about 60 % of all Latinos, Puerto Ricans compose 9.5 %, and Cubans, Dominicans and Salvadorans make up about 4 % each.

Red car with Harris-Walz signs drives past a crowd of people holding Trump-Vance signs and Puerto Rican flags
During the Puerto Rican Day Parade in Reading, Pennsylvania, a crowd gathers outside the Trump campaign office.

But in Pennsylvania, 53 % of Latinos are Puerto Rican and 13 % identify as Mexican. Meanwhile, 11 % say they are Dominican, and only 3 % Cuban.

And this brings us to Vega Baja, a small city on Puerto Rico’s northern coast, where Bad Bunny was born and raised. Puerto Rican citizens are citizens of the United States, but they are only able to cast ballots in US elections when they reside on the mainland. In November, Pennsylvanians could become crucial for their fate.

90, 000 undecided votes?

Latinos made up the overall coalition that helped Joe Biden win the state of his birth and become president in 2020.

Biden won about 75 % of Pennsylvania Latino votes to 25 % for Trump. Given that Biden won Pennsylvania by just 80, 000 votes in 2020, how the state’s 580, 000 Latino voters split their votes in 2024 could determine the next president.

This is demonstrated by the most recent survey of Latinos in nearby Northampton County. Among Latinos in the county, the September 2024 poll found that Harris was leading Trump 60 % to 25 %.

Although this was undoubtedly a strong Harris lead, the significance lay in the background.

Harris’s Latino vote share statewide in 2020 was not attained by the poll, and Trump’s Latino vote share was also falling short of his own 2020 Latino totals. About 90, 000 Latino voters may still be undecided, so by the numbers, they could be in a position to decide who to support and by what margin.

There has been a lot of discussion about whether Bad Bunny will sponsor the race because of this. Both campaigns are firmly convinced that influential Latinas and Latinos ‘ support might persuade influential people.

In addition to national support from stars such as America Ferrera and Rosario Dawson, the Harris campaign recently held a rally in Allentown featuring Emmy-winning actress Liza Colón-Zayas from” The Bear”, and” Hamilton” and” In the Heights” star Anthony Ramos – both of Puerto Rican descent.

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign staged Anuel AA and Justin Quiles, both of whom performed in support of the former president at his Johnstown rally in late August.

Latinos make their decisions based on a combination of economic interests, cultural values, and community sentiment, similar to how other voters do it. No one is certain whether a celebrity endorsement will make a difference, but campaigns will try anything to entice undecided voters to vote for their candidate.

The Democratic National Committee made the announcement on September 29 that it would spend more money on engaging Puerto Rican and other Latino voters in Pennsylvania in the weeks leading up to Election Day.

The Southwest still has the highest percentage of Hispanic voters, but eastern Pennsylvania, which is where the majority of Latina and Latino voters may live.

A. K. Sandoval-Strausz is professor of history, Penn State

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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S Korea piles in with US in arming up the Philippines – Asia Times

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Manila’s most recent move to create a barrier and stockpile more weapons against China’s growing threat in the South China Sea elevated ties to a corporate partnership.

After meeting with Ferdinand Marcos Jr., South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared that the two countries had “opened a new chapter” and that his nation would “actively take part” in the Armed Forces of the Philippines ‘ ( AFP ) modernization drive.

The Philippines is expected to spend up to US$ 35 billion over the course of its Horizon 3 defense development plan, with a particular emphasis on maritime and flying acquisitions, over the next ten years.

Over the past century, South Korea has been a leading provider of modern military products, including fighter jet and warships.

The traditional Yoon management has more boldly welcomed closer defense ties with Washington and like-minded powers in the region, contrasting with its democratic predecessor, President Moon Jae-in, who generally focused on the Vietnamese Peninsula conflict and maintained robust ties with Beijing.

The Marcos Jr administration has vehemently pursued its personal “multi-aligned” foreign legislation in response to criticism of his perceived support for US foreign policy, particularly from strong Duterte community members.

To remove accusations of relying on America, the Philippines has been actively upgrading security ties with a host of quasi-non-aligned countries, including India, New Zealand, and, most critically, South Korea.

Seoul has a treaty relationship with America, but the Northeast Asian nation has previously maintained more balanced international relations, including fostering comfortable ties with Beijing and, occasionally, yet with Tehran and Moscow to maintain Pyongyang at bay. &nbsp,

Consequently, South Korea has generally shunned any immediate criticism of China and other revision powers. Seoul has surprisingly often criticized Beijing for its problems over the South China Sea, and it has adopted strategic misunderstanding regarding any possible action in a Taiwan problems.

South Korea’s accomplished unusual plan has gone hand-in-hand with the development of a world-class security industry. As a result, Seoul has become a “global tilt state”, one that has become more confrontational under the Yoon management.

Yoon spoke out while in Manila about issues raised by North Korea, the South China Sea problems, the continuing discord in Ukraine, and risks that reactionary nations may pose to a rules-based global order.

In the past century, South Korea has provided FA-50 fighter planes, frigates, and ships to the Philippines. Seoul wants to become the fourth-largest producer of arms by 2027, so it wants to sign significant new defence agreements with developing nations like the Philippines and the Philippines with large defense budgets. &nbsp,

Soon after hosting Yoon, Marcos Jr signed a new rules, known as the Self-Reliant Defense Posture Program, to raise the Philippines ‘ regional arms business.

In light of rising geopolitical uncertainty in the area, the law’s goals are to promote indigenous and joint production of modern weapons and revive the nation’s long-dormant defense industry.

“Cyber security breaches, chemical attacks, radiological threats — these are more than hypothetical risks, but pressing realities. With this, we are broadening our perspective on defense. We are not just focusing on rifles and tanks. We are developing capacities to confront these unconventional dangers head-on, Marcos said.

” This means developing systems and strategies that are reactive and predictive, allowing us to stay a step ahead of those who wish harm to the Philippines”, he added.

Nevertheless, the Philippines ‘ ace card remains its deepening defense ties with the US. Aside from ever-larger joint military exercises, Washington has also allocated a bipartisan, multi-billion-dollar defense aid package to its Southeast Asian mutual defense treaty ally.

The US has also provided direct assistance, including sending Philippine resupply ships to disputable landforms like the Second Thomas Shoal, the site of numerous territorial disputes between Chinese and Filipino marine forces in the last year.

The Philippines ‘ decision to grant the US Pentagon expanded rotational access to military installations in the country’s northern regions facing Taiwan is perhaps the most crucial.

In the event of a crisis in the region, the recent decision to host advanced platforms like America’s Typhon missile system, which could target crucial Chinese military installations. The Typhon is capable of launching SM-6 missiles and Tomahawks with a range exceeding 1, 600 kilometers (994 miles ).

The missile system was stationed in the Philippines for recent joint” Salaknib” military exercises with US forces, but it has since been abandoned.

In light of the growing hostility between China and Taiwan over the South China Sea and nearby Taiwan Strait, the Marcos Jr administration believes that the American weapons system could deter any drastic Chinese military action.

In the future, the Philippines is anticipated to seek the direct purchase of cutting-edge American missile and other weapon systems as part of its recently unveiled Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept ( CADC ) strategy. The goal would be to raise the cost of any Chinese kinetic action in any potential assault on Taiwan and the two sides ‘ South China China disputes.

” Relying on US ‘ deterrence to gain an upper hand over China in the South China Sea issue is a short-sighted and narrow-minded move by the Philippines”, Dai Fan, director of the Center for Philippine Studies at Jinan University in South China’s Guangdong Province, told the Chinese Communist Party-run Global Times newspaper.

Although some Chinese experts have tried to play down the Typhon missile system’s deployment, sharp statements made by top Chinese officials underscore Beijing’s growing concerns over deepening Philippine-US military cooperation.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

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Japan gig work shaping and squeezing a new precariat class – Asia Times

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The Chinese company Timee, which was listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in July, held its second income call on September 12. CEO Ryo Ogawa lauded the company’s growth, headlined by 72.6 % and 60.6 % YoY rises in sales revenue and gross profit, respectively.

Highlighting the product’s 1.2 million and growing account, Ogawa touted potential partnerships with remote regions and market associations, ranging from restaurants to security guard providers, as a way to ultimately resolve Japan’s growing labor shortage.

Traders, however, are extremely wary. After the IPO, Timee’s stock price increased by up to 28 %, and it has since steadily fallen nearly 40 % below the IPO price.

Analysts blamed the decrease on the possibility that Timee will face stiff competition from larger, more well-resourced web giants like Mercuri if they start to expand their business and quickly poach Timee’s clientele rather than blaming its fundamentals.

In other words, the success of Timee’s business concept may be its very fate.

Fall of the precariat

However, Timee’s accomplishment speaks to some remarkable changes in the Japanese labour markets. While “irregular employment”, including part-time, contract and freelance workers, represented less than 15 % of the Japanese labor force in 1985, the figure soared to 37 % by 2023, numbering more than 21 million.

An estimated 7 to 10 million of these people work as gig workers, meaning they depend on a regular stream of small projects from various clients for survival rather than a steady job at a single employer. At the bottom of this job work population lies Timee’s workplace.

The platform attracts workers in desperate need of urgent income who are not constantly attainable by offering work that does not require an interview, no background check, and immediate pay upon gig completion.

The worker may be given little-paying, basic, repeated work that necessitates much thought and does not allow for many long-term professional development and learning due to the employer’s inability to evaluate the worker beforehand. &nbsp,

The lower quality of such gig work is extremely leading to a population of “precariats” dependent on the jobs for survival, however, due to the inability to grow properly, are forever” stuck” in low-quality jobs.

The insecurity is obvious from Timee’s user base statistics. More than 60 % of Timee’s registered users are over the age of 30, 88 % earn less than 5 million Japanese yen ( US$ 33, 700 ) per year, and more than half are” core workers” using the platform at least eight times per month.

Timee has significantly evolved into a system for aging workers who, for whatever reason, have fallen short of the full-time career path in corporate Japan rather than serving youths looking for some spending cash outside of their study hours. &nbsp,

Salaryman of the recent

To be clear, the development of a precarious social category of job personnel is by no means exclusive to Japan. The fall of an underclass job worker, however, clearly contradicts the accepted view of the Asian labor market, which restrains economic growth. &nbsp,

After all, many candidates proposed loosening regulations to prevent the fire and hiring of ordinary employees during the late concluded elections for the decision Liberal Democratic Party’s president, perpetuating the prevalence of the “one-company salaryman” due to the sheer cost of job-hopping.

Analysts at both Japanese and international think tanks attributed the country’s underwhelming productivity to the propensity for something close to lifelong employment as a root cause, according to experts in Japan and other countries.

A new reality is brought to light by Timee’s rise by its army of older gig workers: the Japanese labor market is becoming less and less competitive due to the rigidity of full-time formal employment.

The country’s inequality will continue to rise as more and more Japanese workers work outside of traditional jobs, accelerating a trend where the Gini coefficient increased by nearly 60 % in the last four decades until 2019. Timee and its potential rivals in the gig economy are poised to further exacerbate that gap.

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Failure to launch: Why Albanese’s government is in trouble – Asia Times

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It was n’t meant to be like this.

In her 2022 study of Anthony Albanese, Katharine Murphy describes a prime minister who thought he’d be efficiently managing an optimistic, creative and positive “new politics” that would prefer the Green independents rather than Dutton’s Liberals.

Albanese sounded assured that Labor would have a protracted term in office. He appeared to approve of her research despite afterwards adding Murphy to his communications team.

But, even at the moment Murphy’s Lone Wolf: Albanese and the New Politics was published, several critics, including myself, queried the “new politicians” situation. Although the Greys does represent a new political, it is obvious that we still have a lot of the same old Progressive politics, which was one of cultural wars and opposition to Labor’s economic and climate change policies.

Labor and the Liberals are now neck-and-neck in some elections, with minority government ( or worse ) potentially looming for Labor. However, Gareth Evans and Bill Kelty, key statistics from the Hawke/Keating time, have excoriated the Albanese government’s reportedly mediocre performance.

How did it all go so bad?

Great expectations, reasonable fact

Some of the causes can be attributed to problems in implementing Labor’s 2022 election strategy’s unrealistic expectations.

Albanese went to the 2022 poll with a “new elections”, collaborative-style&nbsp, agenda&nbsp, that sought to bring all Australians, including company, workers, Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians, up. It was a small-target plan based on expected common passions, kindness and compassion rather than partisanship.

As a result, Labor successfully countered Scott Morrison’s nationalist, “us versus them” promotion strategy. But, Labor’s approach was to show easier to implement as an election plan than in state, as three cases show.

Second, Albanese channeled Bob Hawke when it came to bringing business and labor up. However, the Hawke government’s reconciliation with company was based on business being able to pay lower wages, because workers had been compensated by a government-funded” cultural income” in the form of benefits and entitlements.

In contrast, the Albanese government pledged to finish the Democratic years ‘ wage stagnation and boost wages in general. A lot of effort was put in place to raise the salaries of low-paid female staff. In the process, Labor tackled issues that arose from Keating’s weak, neoliberal-influenced, business negotiations design.

But, important business organizations criticized Labor’s resulting business relations measures, including multi-employer negotiations, increases in the least pay, and measures designed to address vulnerable and contract job. Business criticisms have largely prevailed over the Liberals.

Second, Labor’s attempts to bring Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians together, via the Voice referendum, fell victim to a divisive, populist campaign by Dutton and others. The Voice proposal, according to Dutton, is an elite” Canberra voice” that would grant Indigenous Australians special rights that other people have been denied, not as a result of a significant national gathering of Indigenous representatives.

Furthermore, he argued that government was so focused on elite “woke” issues such as the Voice, it was neglecting Australian workers ‘ cost-of-living crisis. Labor’s strategy for countering right-wing populism was in disarray.

Albanese’s response to the Voice loss was to go even more” small target” in ways that alienated progressive supporters. He gave up on important commitments, including protecting LGBTQI teachers and students from being fired from religious institutions, including the Treaty and Truth-telling process under the Indigenous Makarrata commission. Another outcome was the controversy over including gender identity questions in the census.

Third, international events and other parties ‘ politicization of them have impeded the government’s attempts at social cohesion. The Albanese government is accused of abandoning support for Israel by the Liberals and the Murdoch press, while the Greens and pro-Palestinian groups are also accused of being” complicit in Israel’s genocide” because the Middle East’s developments have polarized Australian politics.

Narrative failure

The government has struggled when it comes to telling a clear narrative about itself because its original mission of bringing Australians together has been increasingly undermined. By contrast, Dutton’s relentless, focused and simply expressed negativity has been cutting through.

Dutton’s failure to stop them from being able to control them is a part of Labor’s problem.

For example, Dutton’s claim the government has been too distracted by so-called “woke” issues to address the cost-of-living crisis has been particularly electorally damaging for Labor. So do his claims that Labor’s policies on renewable energy are raising inflation and increasing living costs further.

The government argues it has been providing extensive cost-of-living relief in the form of tax cuts, energy bill relief, rental assistance, wage increases, cheaper medicines and reduced childcare costs. However, the problem is that such government measures are being continually undercut by inflation, price increases, high interest rates, and the housing affordability and supply crisis.

However, decades of poor housing policy that predates the Albanese government have made the affordability and supply crisis worse. Furthermore, Labor’s attempts to address it are currently being stymied by a combination of Coalition and Greens opposition, once again sandwiching Labor.

Meanwhile, the Coalition contends that government spending is aggravated by high interest rates and inflation. Even the independent Reserve Bank, which sets cash interest rates and is critical of government spending, has drawn attention to several international factors that contribute to inflation. Some businesses ‘ price increases, which they use to increase their profits, have exacerbated the issue.

Furthermore, Treasurer Jim Chalmers&nbsp, argues&nbsp, that existing government spending levels have been essential to preventing Australia from sliding into recession while still enabling a budget surplus.

In the same way that Keating’s messages did, Chalmers has struggled to get through. However, Keating benefited from the Coalition largely agreeing with his neoliberal-influenced “reform” agenda, despite arguing it was n’t going far enough. By contrast, Chalmers has been facing a fundamentally hostile opposition, unsympathetic to key influences on his thought, such as Mariana Mazzucato.

Labor has also had trouble selling the government’s accomplishments because, as I’ve mentioned in a recent book, some of the Albanese government’s most effective reform initiatives have been focused on gender equality ( although much more still needs to be done ). In what is still a male-defined political culture, reforms that affect women tend to be undervalued despite women accounting for more than half of the population.

Furthermore, the working class is often conceived in terms of blue-collar male employment, so benefits for women workers are not being adequately recognized. This is particularly the case in Dutton’s hyper-masculine, strongman discourse.

Mobilizing gendered leadership stereotypes has been central to Dutton’s populist “us” versus” them” politics. On issues ranging from addressing the cost-of-living crisis to holding asylum seekers who have been released by a High Court decision and supporting Israel, Dutton consistently portrays Albanese as an emasculated “weak” leader.

Dutton is contrasted with the strong leader who will defend the rights of ordinary Australians who have been allegedly abandoned by Labor and the so-called elites.

This does not look like a “new politics” at all and it is a divisive, populist terrain that Labor is finding very difficult to negotiate.

Carol Johnson is emerita professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Adelaide

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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AI fueling rapid race for new chip-making materials – Asia Times

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The US Department of Commerce has announced an empty competitors to show “how AI can help in developing new green silicon materials and processes that meet industry requirements and can be designed and adopted within five decades.”

Under Secretary of Commerce for Standards and Technology Laurie Locascio calls this” a special chance to make the United States a world leader in effective, safe, high-volume, and dynamic silicon manufacturing”. Locascio serves as the director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Up to US$ 100 million will be awarded by the CHIPS Research and Development Office ( CHIPS R&amp, D) to winners who “develop university-led, industry-informed, collaborations about artificial intelligence-powered autonomous experimentation ( AI/AE ) relevant to sustainable semiconductor manufacturing”.

The US CHIPS and Science Act, which US President Joe Biden signed into law in August 2022, established CHIPS R&amp, D. The Department of Commerce is given$ 50 billion for initiatives that aim to revive and strengthen US semiconductor production and R&amp, D.

Of that sum,$ 39 billion went to the CHIPS Program Office for investment in infrastructure and technology in the United States, including high-profile companies being built by Taiwan’s TSMC and America’s Intel. $ 11 billion was allocated to CHIPS R&amp, D for projects such as this one.

The Commerce Department notes that” for the US semiconductor business to prosper in the long-term, it must be able to develop innovative and economically dynamic systems to safely make materials and production chips in a way that protects the environment and local communities.”

That seems clear. After all, the largest American manufacturer of semiconductor production equipment named itself Applied Materials, whereas silicon companies spend billions annually on developing more advanced integrated circuits, using electricity and water more effectively in the production process, and reducing industrial waste and greenhouse gas emissions.

However, Gina Raimondo, the secretary of commerce, feels more necessity. ” Best now”, she says, “new silicon materials generally take years to become production-ready and are very resource-intensive.

We need to use AI to rapidly develop green material processes if we want to quickly expand America’s semiconductor manufacturing base in a way that is long-term sustainable in the face of growing threats from the climate crisis.

Raimondo even feels a sense of vision, saying,” With this new software, the Biden-Harris management will harness the huge potential of our workers and innovators to create a more stable and enduring home semiconductor industry.

What are these presentations all around, aside from making grandiose claims for a sum of money that seems like a drop in the bucket in comparison to the billions of dollars spent annually on R&amp, D? ( In the second quarter of this year alone, Intel’s R&amp, D budget was$ 4.2 billion. )

The answer is that AI/AE, which combines system understanding and automatic facilities, is” ushering in a paradigm change in materials science, “according to Taro Hitosugi, Ryota Shimizu and Naoya Ishizuki of the Tokyo Institute of Technology”. These systems make decisions and carry out all exploratory steps without the need for human intervention by using computer systems and robots.

” Given the possible mixtures of elements,” they continue”, there is an almost infinite number of new materials … Thus, optimizing high-dimensional synthesis parameters in a vast search area is necessary for materials production … In a way, the world of materials is a border for investigation, much like place or the deep water.”

AI/AE should enable a vast acceleration of the process of materials discovery and synthesis, not only in the semiconductor industry but across the spectrum of applied science, from electronics, energy, aerospace and defense to biology, chemistry and pharmaceuticals.

Writing in Nature Synthesis, Eugenia Kumacheva of the University of Toronto and Milad Abolhasani of North Carolina State University write:

Through the integration of machine learning, lab automation, and robotics, the recent growth of data science and automated experimentation techniques has led to the development of self-driving labs ( SDLs ).

An SDL is a machine-learning-assisted modular experimental platform that iteratively operates a series of experiments selected by the machine-learning algorithm to achieve a user-defined objective. Through quick exploration of the chemical space, these intelligent robotic assistants aid researchers in accelerating the pace of fundamental and applied research.

The main benefit of SDLs is the “research acceleration” to produce new knowledge that can lead to the development of novel compounds or manufacturing processes for the best-performing materials 10 to 1000 times more quickly than with one-at-a-time variable exploration or combinatorial experiments.

In other words, AI and robots can perform tasks much more effectively than trial and error that are scientifically sound. According to researchers led by Professor Alán Aspuru-Guzik of the University of Toronto’s Department of Chemistry,

The Aspuru-Guzik group’s goal is to reduce the amount of time and money needed to develop new functional materials or improve existing ones by a factor of ten, namely from ten million dollars and ten years of development to one million dollars and one year. This will eventually change the way we conduct scientific research.

Aspuru-Guzik is also a professor of computer science, a member of the University of Toronto’s strategic initiative Acceleration Consortium, which brings together researchers from industry, government, and academia.

This may be the model for the US Commerce Department’s semiconductor materials initiative. In addition, the department’s AI/AE competition bears a strong resemblance to the SDL Grand Challenge proposed by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) think tank in its January 2024 report entitled” Self-Driving Labs: AI and Robotics Accelerating Materials Innovation.”

The CSIS report asks whether the United States is giving enough policy attention and resources to ensure the advantage in SDLs, stating that” the development and adoption of alternative and new materials is central to US leadership in emerging technologies.

At that time, according to CSIS, US spending on SDLs was less than$ 50 million and” not done in a directed, programmatic manner, “while Canada had awarded$ 200 million to the Acceleration Consortium at the University of Toronto.

In this context, the US Commerce Department’s$ 100 million award will be a belated but meaningful step forward. Its five-year time frame matches the semiconductor industry’s roadmap to 1nm process technology.

CSIS also pointed out that the University of Liverpool, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Argonne National Lab, and Carnegie Mellon University were creating SDLs, noting that” University of Liverpool researchers in 2020 used a mobile platform robot arm to create and search for catalysts across 10 design parameters, ultimately conducting 688 experiments over eight days completely autonomously and identifying chemical formulations that were 6 times better than the baseline. ” &nbsp,

Imec, the Inter-university Microelectronics Centre headquartered in Belgium that conducts advanced R&amp, D with and for the semiconductor industry, is using AI to identify new materials. For example, scientists affiliated with imec write:

Semiconductors are becoming more challenging to manufacture as a result of decreasing dimensions and increasing complexity. In particular, the allowed deposition temperature becomes lower. Amorphous materials, which do not require annealing steps, are therefore becoming more interesting.

However, modeling crystalline materials is much more challenging than modeling crystalline ones from first principles. Especially to screen for new materials, a fully&nbsp, ab initio approach is hence too expensive. We address this issue by combining high throughput first principles calculations with artificial intelligence ( AI ).

The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory ( APL) is using AI to accelerate the development of new materials capable of withstand the harsh conditions that characterize deep-sea exploration, space exploration, hypersonic vehicles, and other applications that are related to national security.

Morgan Trexler, program manager for Science of Extreme and Multifunctional Materials&nbsp, at APL says,

There are more operations in austere environments as the US faces pressing national security challenges, and those operations require revolutionary new materials. We ca n’t wait for decades to find the materials that will satisfy those demands. By infusing AI approaches throughout the discovery process, we can more quickly and intentionally identify materials for complex, specific applications.

Keith Caruso, chief scientist at APL’s Research and Exploratory Development Department, adds that” The approach to building on existing materials will only ever yield limited improvements. To create groundbreaking materials, we need to make a fundamental leap.”

The RIKEN National Research and Development Agency in Japan is utilizing high-performance computing and AI for genomic medicine and drug discovery.

Japanese analytical instrument maker Shimadzu Corporation, which works with Kobe University, is targeting” a platform for autonomous scientific discoveries by robots and AI” as its vision of future laboratories for the development of new materials, pharmaceuticals and biotechnology, including” smart cells” with altered genes.

According to Science China Press,” the idea of large materials models as deep-learning computational models for materials design has attracted great interest.”

Researchers at Tsinghua University are pursuing the creation of “models” that can handle a range of material structures across the periodic table’s various components.

A robotic chemist with an AI background and a team of Chinese scientists created a catalyst to produce oxygen from Martian meteorites almost a year ago, according to China Daily.

The catalyst can consistently produce oxygen without apparent deterioration, according to a stress test at minus 37 degrees Celsius, which suggests it can operate in the harsh conditions on Mars.

Although it is unclear what the Chinese are doing with the development of autonomous materials for the semiconductor and other industries, it is possible.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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Dark tourism and the obscenity of understanding – Asia Times

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People are becoming increasingly frequent travelers to the saddest parts of the world, including those that have been the victims of military assaults, combat zones, and tragedies.

Black commerce is now a sensation, with its own site and dedicated visit guides. These locations are visited by people to grieve or recognize the deceased. However, they occasionally just want to appear and occasionally they just want to enjoy some ‘ suffering.

Of course, people have long visited sites like the Auschwitz-Birkenau Memorial, the site of the Twin Towers destroyed in the 9/11 problems, Robben Island Prison, where Nelson Mandela and some spent many years, and more recently, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. But there are more new sites, connected to effective wars and anger.

Artists and tourists have visited the relevant sites of the Nova audio event and the Nir Oz Kibbutz in Palestine/Israel since the Hamas military attacks on October 7, 2023, in which about 1, 200 people were killed and more than 250 were taken prisoner.

The community tours, guided by previous people, allow people to view and be guided through buildings of the dead, to be shown pictures and shot slots. Sderot, the biggest area targeted by Hamas, is offering what it describes as “resilience travels”, connecting visitors with October 7 individuals.

Similar sites are visited in Ukraine. The “popular” Donbas war trip, for example, takes visitors to the front lines of the issue and offers” a first look at the impact of the war on the local people”, introducing them to uprooted locals, soldiers and volunteer fighters. A Kiev trip, which includes both destroyed military technology and the remnants of missile strikes, is also available.

Solidarity trips

Although these tours go by different names, one Israeli company refers to them as” unity tours.” The concept of unity lessens the claim of objectification or ghoulish pleasure of pain or suffering. It suggests that there are people who have passed away or have lost loved ones.

Solidarity is also a social trait, though. These trips are not only healing. They are not only about “bearing see”, as many guides and customers speak. Additionally, they emphasize fighting in unity.

What is this conflict? After October 7, Holocaust professor Dirk Moses wrote introspective pieces on this. Colonial says seek not only security, but “permanent protection”. This makes them hyper-defensive of their territories.

Israel was an unavoidable result of the Balfour Declaration ( 1917 ), which carved up the Middle East, when it was established by the newly formed United Nations in 1947, two years after the end of World War II and in the midst of the Holocaust.

Relationships between Palestinians and Jews became borders to understand and policing as a result of the establishment of the Jewish state, creating a line of protection to protect.

Palestinians whose ancestral ancestors have been occupied for many generations have long been subject to shame and disparagement at these edges. Israeli Defense Force personnel have strongly discussed the random and brutal acts of violence that, including” creative sanctions.” These were the edges that guarded the Hamas-at-sacred places. Five km from one of these territories was the Nova music event.

For some Israelis, any violation of those edges, any sense of loss of power, authorities the terrors of the past. It raises the threat of the Holocaust: the death of German Jewry, the loss of autonomy over family, house, and over existence, the loss of millions of lives, repeatedly. For Israel, as for any imperial state, safety is a continuous ambition, in Moses’s words. The stakes are high.

In this context, black commerce is not only a form of sympathy for those who lost loved ones on October 7. It is cooperation with the frontier, with those who have lost that security. And that loss is serious, tragic and, at least physiologically, may provoke aggressive reactions in an effort to have the borders – physical and mental – reasserted.

” I stand with you,”

Intermediate justice systems that use legal systems, such as the fact charges in South Africa, Timor Leste, and Argentina, help countries recover from the stress of crimes against humanity. After enduring instances of widespread crime, these systems are one option. Ironically, their phrase is Nunca Mas ( never again ), which was the name of the 1984 statement by Argentina‘s National Commission on the Lost.

Another option is the one that Israel seeks, and its tagline might be the same. Never again will Israel’s borders remain breached, never again will Israeli life be subjected to large destruction with impunity.

This is what cooperation is mean: supporting those who have suffered as well as fostering a sense of belonging and borders that are strengthened through participation. The sessions are probably intended to be” I stand with you.” I stand with you on this area, at this time, and perhaps for all day.

But in what then, walk by you? In anguish, yes. But also in fury, in anguish, in vengeance and, for some, in making Israel wonderful again.

Some people are asking for visitors to the October 7 tourist destinations via the tweet #standwithus. It means remain with us at Israel’s borders. From that, you can hear the sound of weapons falling: in Gaza, a spot where no unity journey will come. Still.

Monuments, anguish and understanding

Those who are connected to the events may not always enjoy darker commerce. Some people travel to places of disaster and lost because they want to know how much the world is sadder and more brutal. Some people want to show others their value. It’s not opposite to visiting monuments.

Monuments combine the various aspects of grief into one cohesive whole and serve as a collective memory. To create a shared truth, they provide fragments of historic pain that can be ingested in multiple minds.

Every guy who perished in every battle that took place in South Africa, as well as those who perished in world wars, is portrayed in a memorial called Freedom Park in Pretoria, South Africa. A ceiling that lines the area contains the names written on it. It is utterly much and circular, and you cannot determine it with your own foot. It is disorientating and unending, like pain.

Nelson Mandela’s past jail cell at Robben Island is one of the sites visited by’ black tourists’. &nbsp, Photo: West African Tourism / AAP via The Talk

You are unable to understand a story of reduction, represented by the names in this monument metaphor, and you are abundant with it at the same time. The rooms contain you, and then they cannot.

Never always about comprehension or confinement, perhaps in cooperation or grief. Sometimes it is about contact. Often, it is about sitting with no knowing. Sometimes, it is about being solid with something that ca n’t be explained.

Trauma, psychology tells us, is an experience of what we cannot adapt. You can learn a lot from sitting close to people and sites where traumatic events have occurred. If you see the gun openings at a site of damage, you can understand something. But not everything. The concept of a limited history is a wall with gun holes in it.

To understand and to learn, people go to memorials and historical sites of damage. Black commerce has this value.

Obscenity of understanding

We try to understand why people act violently in my area, which is trauma research and crime. Holocaust-related documentary and critic Claude Lanzmann has stated that we should never indulge in what he refers to as the “obscenity of the task of understanding” in relation to Nazi offenders.

He views the justification for violence as being violent in its own right. He is curious about the thoughts of the perpetrators. Of the Holocaust, he says you cannot request” Why were the Jews killed”?. It is the effect that counts. However, it is also the response that counts. A portion of that effect is the state of Israel itself, which has its own permanent security and its own perils.

However, knowledge can affect how people react to violence and make a difference in how they respond to the promises of Never Again. Understanding enables us to keep an eye on more than one account. It allows us to do more than count the more than 1, 200 killed in Israel, or the 41, 689 ( plus ) Palestinians killed in Gaza.

Systems are always more than statistics. But reason is one issue, justification another. Rationale is best left to the courts, foreign or then, after the assault has ceased.

Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, November 2023. &nbsp, Photo: Getty Images via The Talk

Try to understand black tourism in Israel, Palestine, and Ukraine. It is hard not to criticize the visitors. However, we are quick to denounce right now and even more quickly desire that people follow suit.

Perhaps we should n’t be so righteous and should resist the urge to easily condemn people from our homes in what Tim Rowse has characterized as the “ongoing colonial encounter sometimes called” Australia.”

Indigenous people here complain that there are n’t any memorials on this area. However, in Australia, every property with a border is a destination for black hospitality. Black tourism is a search for locations where violence and destruction occurs, but in this country, it is not uncommon to see murder right outside our door.

Juliet Rogers is interact professor of crime, The University of Melbourne

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Black Arrow: US missile aims for more pointed strikes on China – Asia Times

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Leidos, a US defense company, is gearing up to change the AC-130J gunship into a fierce precision strike platform ready to face advanced adversaries like China with its Black Arrow missile, a dynamic, long-range weapon that promises to revolutionize United airpower.

Following successful non-firing tests in December 2023, Leidos is scheduled to conduct its Black Arrow missile test firing from a US Special Operations Command ( SOCOM) AC-130J gunship this fall.

Defense One says that the Black Arrow, a little air-to-ground cruise missile, aims to meet SOCOM’s 2021 need for a missile capable of flying 400 coastal yards and hitting targets without GPS.

The statement notes that Leidos, usually known for weapons components, utilized digital technologies and compact design to quicken the rocket’s development.

It says the company used high-data modeling and digital twinning to simulate millions of trajectories, ensuring the missile’s compatibility with the AC-130 and the Naval Surface Warfare Center ( NSWC ) Battle Management System.

Defense One says the rocket’s layout allows quick integration with different platforms, including the MQ-9 aircraft and carry aircraft like the C-130. The statement says this freedom may gain companion militaries&nbsp, seeking cost-effective weapon solutions.

Leidos ‘ approach, facilitated by a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement ( CRADA ) with SOCOM, highlights a shift towards faster, more affordable missile development, potentially transforming the landscape for US and allied forces.

For combat operations in liberal airport, the AC-130 and its forebears were made. The AC-130 is ineffective to combat a near-peer attack conflict with China because the US is now shifting its proper focus to the great Pacific islands.

According to an Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative ( AMTI ) map, China has stationed surface-to-air missile ( SAM ) systems on Woody Island, Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef and Mischief Reef in the South China Sea. The main air defense deployed on the held features is the HQ-9 SAM, according to the image.

According to the Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance ( MDAA ), most land-based HQ-9 variants can hit targets 200 kilometers away, with a claimed 90 % single-shot kill capability against aircraft.

In an October 2021 essay for The National Interest, David Axe claimed that Taiwan’s combat aircraft could be shot down by China’s Russian-made S-400 SAM techniques as soon as they take off.

Given the threat of powerful Chinese heat defenses, The War Zone mentioned in August 2024 that the AC-130 ships may need to move away from its traditional direct-fire role&nbsp, and use long-range conflict armaments as a “bomb truck”, such as cruise missiles and drone swarms, to be relevant.

The document says this development has already begun with the AC-130J Ghostrider, which features upgraded methods and new weapons, including Inferno weapons, Small-Diameter Bombs and&nbsp, the Rapid Dragon palletized weapons.

The Asia Times noted in August 2023 that Rapid Dragon allows the US to launch long-distance problems without the need for fighter jets or planes, which may be in short supply.

A palletized version of the Rapid Dragon can carry nine Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles ( JASSM) for C-130s and six for the C-17. Because targeting information is programmed into the weapons using a laptop, it is intended to be quickly deployed without altering the launch plane.

It addresses the issues with software connectivity, availability, and capacity that are frequently encountered with air-launched cruise missiles like the JASSM, which was originally intended to be used on fighter jets or bombers.

It can also significantly improve reliability by firing a number of rockets from a single launcher. A surveillance weapon equipped with a high-resolution cameras can identify the enemy, followed by an electronic warfare missile to reduce enemy radar and other sensors&nbsp, and, lastly, a high-explosive missile for devastating effect.

Rapid Dragon operators confirm or update the location’s routing coordinates before deploying a target, request a strike, and confirm the change. This makes it possible for air forces to bombard an area with numerous weapons, make targeted attacks harder, and use less air defense munitions. The system also helps US allies when there are limited aircraft availability, enabling new operational ideas.

As for the AC-130 launching swarming drones, Asia Times noted in May 2024 that drone swarms can perform surveillance, test or jam enemy air defenses, patrol areas of interest, launch swarm attacks and destroy enemy drones.

Additionally, multiple drones in a swarm with various sensors act as various nodes in an a&nbsp, mesh network that can effectively track and target enemies using a variety of surveillance techniques.

However, according to The War Zone, the AC-130’s design and mission may need to undergo additional changes due to budget constraints and shifting military priorities. According to the report, the AC-130’s ability to contribute to upcoming conflicts will depend on how well it adapts to new mission demands, such as long-range precision strikes and support for agile combat operations in the Indo-Pacific theater.

The US is considering using the AC-130 in a number of other capacities, further reflecting the transition from long-running counterinsurgency operations in permissive airspace to near-peer great power conflicts.

Riley Feeney mentions that the AC-130J is being modified for roles like special operations forces ( SOF ) support, command and control, global firepower projection, and many other roles as the US military shifts focus on potential conflicts with peer competitors like China in an August 2023 Air University article.

Regarding the AC-130J providing SOF support, Feeney notes that with a shift away from direct-action raids, SOF units are being trained to operate with less support, including less air support.

As a result, he says the AC-130J is being considered for special reconnaissance, which involves clandestinely relaying critical information from forward SOF teams to command and control.

According to Feeney, the AC-130J is equipped with advanced communication systems and skilled aviators for command and control, making it a valuable asset during air warfare.

He points out that it has the potential to lead joint all-domain command and control ( JADC2 ) operations even in remote areas where other aircraft, such as the E-3 or E-8, might not be able to effectively operate, enhancing both command and control capabilities and delivering firepower.

Feeney claims that the Rapid Dragon concept allows for a worldwide firepower projection without the need for modifications to the aircraft and converts any cargo aircraft into a weapons platform.

He claims that it also allows for the global deployment of firepower when using traditional shooters in non-shooting roles, such as the AC-130J in command and control. He cites the US Air Force’s efforts to improve the AC-130J’s combat capabilities with better defensive systems and precision-guided weapons.

However, Feeney points out that the AC-130J upgrades focus on increasing lethality but may not fully align with the needs of the Joint Force in the US Indo-Pacific Command ( INDOPACOM) theater. He claims that to increase the relevance of the aircraft, technological investment and creative employment are necessary.

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Trump win would negatively impact New Zealand foreign policy – Asia Times

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One of the democratic contradictions of the White House race is that Kamala Harris ‘ victory would likely benefit the center-right government’s foreign policy goals.

All New Zealand governments have backed multilateralism and an internationally recognized rules-based purchase that are enshrined in the corporations of the UN since the end of World War II.

The relationship with the United States has taken into account that and has a tendency to surpass the fluctuating government and policy in Wellington or Washington.

New Zealand’s present National-led alliance inherited close relationships with the US, too. National visitor numbers came in second only to Australian customer numbers last year. Our third-largest trade business is the US. Additionally, the two nations continue to be effectively linked under the Five Eye knowledge sharing arrangement.

However, the coalition’s main foreign policy objectives are to improve its relationship with classic friends like the US. The outcome of any effort to improve relations with the US will depend greatly on how successful any force for closer relationships can be given Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s quite distinct worldviews.

Closer connections in the harmony

On the one hand, Republican candidate Trump is opposed to international institutions, unless they directly serve US regional interests. And he wants to reverse the impact of globalization by constraining emigration, free trade and global leadership.

Nationalist cliches like” America First” suggest a return to the so-called golden age of patriotism and sovereignty: a world where the greatest strength of all is uncaged and free to proclaim its supremacy.

On the other hand, Harris might appear to be in favor of a more conventional US international plan perspective. This acknowledges the significance of international organizations and relationships in a world where isolation is never coating.

The next White House occupant has a good chance of having a major influence on New Zealand’s foreign policy.

Energy acts and the Pacific

Second, Trump’s belief in a global system run by powerful countries would appear to be a recipe for denying a smaller state like New Zealand a voice on global issues that matter.

Next, a Harris foreign policy is more likely to complement New Zealand’s local rely on ties with Pacific Island nations, which is supported by close people-to-people ties and a sizable portion of the nation’s international development aid program.

Former US president Joe Biden oversaw years of abuse of a large portion of the Pacific, which had helped other nations, particularly China, benefit from.

The US-Pacific Islands Summit is held annually in 2022, which was launched by the Biden group. Additionally, Kamala Harris actively participated in the US$ 800 million in climate change and development aid program for Pacific Island countries in 2022-23.

Whether Trump will maintain this enhanced diplomatic and economic engagement in the Pacific ( and elsewhere ) is questionable. Also, after Biden rejoined the Paris Climate Accord, Trump will probably leave it for a next time.

AUKUS and Ukraine

Third, the state of New Zealand must balance trying to navigate relations with China, the country’s largest trading partner, while pursuing its purpose of approving the US.

Subsequent New Zealand governments have been considering partnering with an agreement to promote superior security technologies under foundation two of the AUKUS safety partnership, which aims to deter a growing China in the Indo-Pacific region, since March 2023.

It’s still to be seen how China would respond if New Zealand joined. However, Trump’s insistence on US supremacy in any international agreement might make it more difficult for the government to secure local support for pillar two membership.

Trump is more likely than ever to demand that supporters spend more on defense, even outside the AUKUS discussion.

Third, New Zealand has a large interest in the failing of Russia’s intended annexation of Ukraine. Wellington’s interests are obviously more in line with Harris’s vow to keep support for Ukraine to regain its territorial dignity.

Trump’s promise to end the conflict within 24 hours, on the other hand, was probably only be kept by giving Vladimir Putin what he wants.

Middle East and UN

Suddenly, it appears that Trump and Harris have no significant policy differences regarding the disastrous condition in Gaza and Lebanon.

There is still a slim chance that the Harris supervision will accept a level of unwavering support for the Israeli government under Benjamin Netanyahu, a level that would be inappropriate for a powerhouse whose foreign plan is supposed to be based on general principles and respect for international law.

But for Trump, this would be nearly unachievable. However, he would likely provide Netanyahu with yet greater support.

Nevertheless, the National-led coalition’s foreign plan goals seem to connect more with a Harris-led presidency than a Trump-led coalition.

But even if Harris wins, the position of interests will not be ideal. The UN security Council’s veto power and US exceptionalism, an unofficial ideology that claims the country is a social model for the rest of the world, are likely to remain confining factors in the relationship between New Zealand and the US.

Alexander Gillespie is a doctor of law at the University of Waikato, and Robert G. Patman is a professor of international relationships at the University of Otago.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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India-US partnership has deepened long-term under Biden – Asia Times

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This content was first published by Pacific Forum. It is republished with authority.

The September attend of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the United States for meetings, both unilaterally as well as a piece of the&nbsp, 2024 Quad Summit, has drawn the spotlight to the&nbsp, state of US-India relations&nbsp, under the Biden administration.

In guiding India and the United States on a multi-generational partnership that required many administrations and many years of diligent work, the Trump presidency has proven to be fairly epochal. Alterations have to do with

  • US aid for India’s rapid industrial development and significant expansion of its tech partnership,
  • India is recognized as a significant person in the Indo-Pacific area and a key player in the US Indo-Pacific method.
  • combination of&nbsp, Quad&nbsp, as an essential gathering for regional and global great
  • calling for the shaping of the diplomatic agreement to involve both public and private players.
  • keeping the agreement on course despite significant difficulties.

The US drive for India’s ability building in the field of crucial and emerging technologies is arguably the most complete and forward-looking effort of the Trump era. The two countries signed an&nbsp, Initiative for Essential and Rising Technology&nbsp, (iCET ) in May 2022 that has opened a wide range of areas for bilateral cooperation in areas including artificial intelligence, quantum systems, area, 6G smart tech and semiconductor supply chain.

The US-India Climate and Clean Energy Agenda 2030 partnership, which would help India meet its 450 GW of solar energy goal for 2030, and support the US carry out its international climate efforts, has been established between the two nations.

India’s ability in&nbsp, classical technology is extremely minimal and therefore the US push including&nbsp, diplomatic quantum initiatives&nbsp, greatly benefits New Delhi’s modern rise.

India and the United States have also established really specific, meaningful projects involving visible outcomes and the exchange of high-end technologies to the American business habitat, further bolstering the diplomatic technology partnership. These efforts include

  • combined production of flight engines&nbsp, for fighter flights,
  • setting up a&nbsp, semiconductor processing flower and
  • the creation of high-performance processing facilities in India.

The Biden administration has also played a key role in allowing India to join a number of software venues:

  • the 14-member&nbsp, Mineral Security Partnership&nbsp, and
  • the US-based&nbsp, Quantum Economic Development Consortium&nbsp, ( QED-C), a consortium of institutions headquartered in 39 countries.

The US symphony to share&nbsp, essential and emerging technologies&nbsp, essential for India’s national security amplifies the country’s political importance in the US corporate calculus and the willingness to create a powerful tech-centric alignment with India.

India and the US continued to make headway in the security industry with the 2023 bilateral deal over combined creation of GE414-INS6 jet engines, the flagship initiative of the Biden administration. It is estimated that the deal would lead to roughly 80 %&nbsp, transfer of engine technology. However, the deal is likely to remain unrealized during the Biden presidency since it remains in the&nbsp, negotiation stage&nbsp, more than a year after its announcement.

Other significant announcements from the Biden administration have been made.

  • the development of India’s defense-industrial complex through the India-US Defense Acceleration Ecosystem ( INDUS-X),
  • agreement to establish a new&nbsp, Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul ( MRO ) facility&nbsp, in India for the American C-130 Super Hercules aircrafts for India and other operators, and
  • the&nbsp, Indian procurement of MQ-9B drones&nbsp, that are expected to upscale India’s multi-domain capabilities in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance ( ISR ).

The Biden era saw a constant push to establish India as a significant regional group and strengthen its leadership position within the Quad. The member-states agreed in 2o21 to elevate the Quad to a summit-level initiative. With six summit-level meetings and eight foreign ministers ‘ meetings, the grouping metamorphosed in four years into a high-profile leaders-led initiative with&nbsp, a robust agenda for cooperation&nbsp, in the Indo-Pacific region.

Keeping its central purpose of facilitating maritime security in the Indo-Pacific region, the Quad took a major step in May 2022 and set up the&nbsp, Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness&nbsp, ( IPMDA ) to “offer near-real-time, integrated, and cost-effective maritime domain awareness information to partners in the region”. Since then, the IPMDA has expanded its mandate to cover the entire Indo-Pacific, including the Indian Ocean, Southeast Asia, and Pacific Island countries.

Reinforcing its maritime security objective, the&nbsp, 2024 Quad summit&nbsp, has unveiled three important initiatives:

  • the Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific ( MAITRI),
  • a maritime legal dialogue, and
  • a first-ever Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission.

At least six crucial issues with the potential to derail momentum in bilateral cooperation have been raised in the Biden era: at least six important issues; and: controversies that have challenged India-US relations.

    Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act-related sanctions, &nbsp, until issuance of an&nbsp, India-specific waiver&nbsp, in 2022,

  • Indian abstentions&nbsp, in pro-Ukraine multilateral diplomacy,
  • Indian imports of Russian oil&nbsp, despite the US sanctions,
  • US withdrawal from Afghanistan,
  • alleged&nbsp, Indian extraterritorial operations&nbsp, in Canada and the US, and
  • US criticism&nbsp, of human rights situations in India.

These issues will continue to challenge the partnership, along with issues such as export controls, tech transfer, and India-specific legislative waivers.

The next US administration should prioritize the establishment of a semiconductor manufacturing plant and the joint production of a Jet Engine GE414-INS6 in order to advance the relationship.

Notwithstanding bipartisan consensus on India’s importance in the US Indo-Pacific strategy, Biden’s legacy lies in the seriousness and non-transactional approach with which his administration pushed India-US partnership.

Unabhängig of who occupies the White House starting in 2025, the real challenge for the governments of the two nations will be to maintain the high level of interest, trust, and political will that characterized the Biden-led India-US partnership. It’s one thing to spell out the intentions, and it’s another to put them into practice.

Vibhanshu Shekhar&nbsp, ( vshekhar@american .edu ) teaches at American University.

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