Opiate War: US-China in a fearsome fentanyl fight – Asia Times

In response to the illegal import of the opioid fentanyl into the US, US President Donald Trump recently threatened to impose an additional 10 % tariff on goods coming from China.

Fentanyl has emerged as the most recent staging area for a trade war between the country’s two largest economy. China is currently the main producer of the prelude chemicals needed to make fentanyl.

Both China and the US have taken steps to make these chemicals move more effectively. But, Mexico, where fentanyl is produced and then imported into the US, has changed from immediate export to the improper fentanyl network.

Heroin has a long record of damaging battle and trade war, beginning with the First Opium War of 1839-1842, despite the relatively recent class of drugs, including fentanyl.

The Heroin War

In the first half of the 19th century, the English state faced an economic issue. A significant business disparity had resulted from China’s imports of drink, porcelain, and fabric.

Opium grown in areas under British colonial rule was one item that the British were able to exposure in large quantities. The American did morphine flooding the Chinese market as a solution to the trade imbalance. Millions of Taiwanese people were already addicted to the substance in the 1830s.

In 1839, in response to the addiction crisis, the Chinese emperor sent an official, Lin Tse-hsu, to Canton ( modern-day Guangzhou ), the home base for British opium merchants, to stem the flow of opium and destroy the stockpiles of the drug.

The British merchants reacted to his actions, asserting that the Chinese assault harmed free business principles and demanded payment for the opium that had been destroyed. They efficiently pressed for a military response from the Chinese assault on the American government.

A painting of old warships with sails, one ship seen in the background sinking and on fire
A picture from the Second Battle of Chuenpi, which took place in January 1841, is depicted in a painting by American actor Edward Duncan from around 1843. Image: Edward Duncan via The Talk

Up until 1842, when the conflict was over, the American forces defeated the Chinese militarily in a series of military loses. The agreement gave the British command over Hong Kong as a continuous base, gave large reparations for damaged opium stockpiles, and opened five Chinese slots to European traders.

In the Next Opium War of 1856-1858, when combined British and French forces once defeated China militarily and demanded deeper trade concessions, hostilities broke out.

Morphine and opium-based materials had an ambiguous status throughout the 19th centuries. Laudanum, for example, was a mixture of heroin, beer and spices and was available as medication for pain reduction and sneezes. However, it was also acknowledged as potentially lethal if taken in large quantities and as addictive.

Laudanum bottles had both the recommended dosages ( beginning at three months old ) and a poison warning label.

From heroin to opiates

Fast forward to today, and drugs also have a difficult place in terms of their addictive and opioid status.

An opioid crisis has resulted from extreme selling by pharmaceutical firms that ignored or even denied the possibility of habit, leading to the development of millions of people in the US, Canada, and other countries becoming addicted.

OxyContin and other drugs have helped to lessen problems, but they also have increased addiction issues. In 2016, the leading cause of overdoses and deaths was cocaine, which were followed by chemical opioids like fentanyl.

China was initially reluctant to take measures to help the US deal with its addiction crisis, and the threat of tariffs does not make the Chinese any more likely to want to help. The Heroin War signaled the start of what is referred to as the “century of humiliation” in China, a period when the country was colonized and dictated to by foreign powers.

Trump’s speech on taxes is reminiscent of that time and is unlikely to encourage greater cooperation between the Chinese government and other concerns. This strategy suggests that nothing has been learned about the significance of global cooperation in addressing addiction problems since the Heroin War.

Since the beginning of the Morphine War, China and the West have had significant changes, and many of these changes have resulted in the opioid crisis. However, negotiation may work much better than threating a deal war that brings up historical memories of past conflicts.

Negotiations between former US President Joe Biden’s leadership helped to reach an agreement that might lower the amount of fentanyl entering the nation. This agreement serves as a model for how to overcome the world’s export of fentanyl using compromise as opposed to threats.

Martin Danahay is teacher of English language and literature, Brock University

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Trump needs a realistic and restrained China policy – Asia Times

Donald Trump’s regional security officials have been called “hawks” in subsequent criticism who support a difficult part for the United States against China. This is incorrect and detracts from the need to put America’s regional objectives at the center of US foreign policy.

Trump’s first time in office suggest a willingness to reach out to Beijing that does not fit with the “hawks” label, the president saying he wants to&nbsp, visit&nbsp, China, and would prefer not to impose levies if a&nbsp, “deal” &nbsp, can be struck on trade.

This should be unsurprising since Trump ‘s&nbsp, appointees&nbsp, include both those committed to standing up to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP ) and those with deep economic investments in the country.

Trump’s China “hawks” include&nbsp, Marco Rubio&nbsp, for secretary of state, &nbsp, Mike Waltz&nbsp, for national security adviser, &nbsp, Pete Hegseth&nbsp, for secretary of defense, &nbsp, Peter Navarro&nbsp, for business director, major advocate of the TikTok ban&nbsp, Jacob Helberg&nbsp, as State Department monetary policy standard, and as deputy national surveillance adviser&nbsp, Alex Wong, anti-CCP Senator Tom Cotton’s past director.

But Trump’s team also includes a new constituency of advisers likely to have a say in China policy: the tech bros. Palantir CEO&nbsp, Alex Karp&nbsp, and&nbsp, Palmer Luckey&nbsp, of autonomous weapons manufacturer&nbsp, Anduril&nbsp, have much to gain from an open congressional spigot on defense spending and both have said the US must prepare for a possible conflict with China.

Elon Musk’s business interests, in contrast, diverge from Tesla, which accounts for a sizable portion of Tesla’s profits, as do many other leading US tech companies. The tech bros are thus divided.

In fact, there are few real “doves” on China in Washington these days. Those like SAIS professor&nbsp, Jessica Chen Weiss or former deputy secretary of state James Steinberg&nbsp, who reject the zero-sum language of much of the debate are far from naïve about the China challenge.

A hawks-and-doves framing neglects the real issue: not what the new administration’s China policy&nbsp, might&nbsp, be, but what it&nbsp, should &nbsp, be. Trump should be guided by realism and restraint, an accurate assessment of the balance of power in Asia and a clear-eyed view of America’s core national interests.

A zero-sum competition framing of China, one that casts any issue in terms of military buildup/deployment or sanctions/tariffs, is unhelpful. China does pose the kind of military challenge America hasn’t faced since the start of World War II, and it has succeeded in standing up to the West in advanced manufacturing, from AI to cars.

But the People’s Republic of China ( PRC ) is not an&nbsp, existential&nbsp, threat. We do not in America have to&nbsp, like&nbsp, the Marxist-Leninist one-party state the CCP is bent on defending, but we can live with it. A less expansive definition of “national security” would be a good way to clarify our definitions of China. This is a lesson that America ought to have taken away from the war on terrorism.

Despite the tensions with the PRC, questions like whether to allow TikTok to operate, whether to own US port equipment or a company like US Steel, or whether foreign-made drones or electric vehicles should be legal, all need serious scrutiny from lawmakers. However, domestic law enforcement should be kept separate from militarized understandings of national security from concerns over fears about propaganda or data theft.

Questions like whether to link TikTok’s military defense of East Asia to a zero-sum discussion of China serve as justification for a grand plan of “primacy” or the preservation of the United States ‘ military might in East Asia.

Primacy, however, is both unrealistic and unnecessary. The People’s Republic of China’s coast should not be the first place the United States should begin its defense. The United States is not responsible for protecting Japan and the nations that border South Korea and New Zealand. Washington can act as a security partner but not as a guarantee.

On Taiwan, the major imperatives are cooling tensions, maintaining the status quo, and not being sucked into a shooting war. The most effective strategy is still to remain uncommitted to the use of force in the event that the PRC attempts to conquer Taiwan.

Beijing may not like a liberal democratic Taiwan, but it can live with one, just like the US with the PRC. Washington cannot prevent Beijing from invading Taiwan, however. If Xi decided to try his hand at capturing the territory, it would not be a policy failure. These conceits of US control, which are used to criticize others for being” soft on China,” serve to reinforce primacy as the only viable strategy.

Nor should domestic investment be a prerequisite for the pursuit of primacy through competition with China. Because they promise good jobs, economic growth, and a boost to domestic innovation, leaders should want to see America at the forefront of new technologies like AI.

Secure supplies of things like critical minerals and semiconductors should, therefore, be a priority absent a peer challenger. No China threat rhetoric is required.

Finally, engagement with Beijing cannot remain off the table, however toxic the word has become. American diplomats don’t like how Beijing conducts diplomacy, in particular their reneging on promises.

However, the Chinese don’t like how America conducts business: lecturing rather than bargaining, avoiding strategic questions, and giving up little while enforcing structural changes. Yet while cheap, talk is still worth the effort.

No matter who Trump appoints —hawk, dove, or tech bro—a realistic and restrained policy attuned to America’s core interests remains the gold standard for making China policy.

David M. McCourt is an associate professor at the University of California, Davis, in the Department of Sociology. He is the author of a book titled&nbsp,” The End of Engagement: America’s China and Russia Watchers and US Strategy Since 1989″. Published with the permission of Defense Priorities.

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Syria gets a new autocrat as Sharaa styles himself ‘president’ – Asia Times

Forget about Syria becoming an Islamist province. The country’s de facto ruler and former al-Qaeda agent Ahmad Sharaa on Wednesday proclaimed himself” intermediate leader”, with his&nbsp, X account&nbsp, just dropping the word” intermediate” and referring to him as “president of the Syrian Arab Republic”. But who was killed and made Sharaa prince? No one is the truth. In a place where “might is right”, the person with the weapon becomes “president”, and, before we know it, Sharaa may be leader, long.

But not all Syria are on table. Taha Bali, a Syrian-American Sunni from Damascus who has supported the Arab rebellion since its beginning in 2011, has spoken out frequently about Syria’s new ruler and his impulses.

Two months after moving into the People’s Palace, once Bashar Assad’s seat of power, Sharaa had “received foreign ministers, intelligence chiefs, celebrities ,]International Criminal Court ] prosecutor, foreign media and Syrian diaspora”, Bali&nbsp, wrote&nbsp, on X.

But, Sharaa had yet to get people of Syria whom Assad had killed or imprisoned, those injured and maimed in 14 years of civil war, native non-governmental companies, organizations or local advertising. Bali concluded that Sharaa’s intentions were clear. He was only interested in making connections with” the strong,” whether domestic or foreign, so he didn’t speak directly to Syria or travel to areas other than the presidential palace, like the famous Saydnaya prison.

To be honest, Sharaa did left the political house just to meet Qatari Emir Tamim Bin Hamad, whose plane touched down at Syrian airport on Thursday for the first time by a head of state.

In another article, Bali welcomed the formation of all armed groups into a central troops, but added that the incident was used to support for Sharaa taking control of the country.

Another Arab revolution, Mazen Ezzi, a French-Syrian Druze from Sweida in the north, also objected to what looked like Sharaa’s conquest of energy. The fact that Sharaa relied “on military groups, more than political and civil causes”, made it look like a revolt rather than political change, Ezzi&nbsp, argued.

Parties that pledged affiliation to Sharaa, when he proclaimed himself leader, were all Sunni, according to Ezzi. ” Any social process that eliminates Kurds, Alawites, Christians, Druze, Murshidis, Assyrians and others is not a really regional one”, he&nbsp, concluded.

Ezzi was best. Despite” President Sharaa,” large portions of the nation still fall under its purview. In the southeast, the Kurdish Syria Democratic Forces ( SDF) maintain an autonomous government and military. The Kurds insisted on agreeing to the process initially when Sharaw demanded their hands to be surrendered.

According to SDF key Mazloum Abdi,” We told Sharaa that we are willing to join our martial skills to create a national Syrian troops – an organisation with agreed on guidelines and chain of command.” We are not willing to sacrifice to him because Shaara does not want us to be his peers. For the Kurds, it helps that their martial features, and global relationships, are excellent to Sharaa’s. However, with time, the balance of power does shift in favor of them.

Before coming to power, Sharaa asserted that his only goal was to create a different and rich Syria deserving of its citizens and that he was not seeking strength or fame. However, Sharaa’s actions have since demonstrated that he has only feigned his past in order to gain international support for his need to consolidate power and, likely, not give up.

More than 50 years after the Assads took office, Sharaa is still riding on the famous joy of ejecting the Assad monarchy.

But quickly enough, when Sharaa becomes the unquestioned master, he will have to manage. Sharaa will need to use tactics comparable to those of other Middle Eastern dictators, including harsh suppression of opponents and a displacement of responsibility toward foreigners, primarily the West and Israel.

Another technique, probably closer to the emotions of Sharaa’s center, would be to succumb to Islamism. The reeling Iraqi dictator launched the “belief plan” in 1991, adding the Islamic word” God is Excellent” to the flag, after a global partnership ejected Saddam and destroyed Iraq and its market. When Syria encounters unemployment and poverty, it is likely that Sharaa will resurrect his Islamist past and engage in Islamization, which in combination with brutal repression, will lead to the establishment of an Islamic state in Syria, similar to the ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

There’s no guarantee that what comes after will be any different from what came before, but toppling bloody tyrants is great.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain works for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies ( FDD ) as a researcher.

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Australia’s opposition overtly cozying up to China – Asia Times

When Peter Dutton was questioned this week about whether a Coalition authorities would continue to promote business relations with China, he unwaveringly stated that” the partnership with China will be much stronger than it is under the Albanese authorities.”

Two factors stood up: Dutton’s individual good speech, and his evident confidence about the future of Australia-China relationships.

It’s not uncommon for opposition leaders to undertake a renovation, to their people or policy, as an election approaches. Anthony Albanese gained new cups and lost pounds. Previously, he’d made Labor a little plan target.

Dutton tries to soften some aspects while maintaining the “hard guy” stereotype on others.

Mid-last time Dutton said:” I’m pro-China and the connection that we have with them. I want to strengthen our buying marriage. There are many companies in this area that rely on it, so we need to make sure we strengthen the trading marriage. However, we must be realistic about attempting to maintain peace because [ …] we live in a very uncertain time. The Prime Minister also asserts that the most difficult time has passed since the Second World War, and he is correct that we must work hard for serenity as well.

Contrast Dutton’s 2021 position as defence minister. Does the Foreign state want to hold other nations? Never in my wisdom. However, they do view us as watershed state. Our nation has fought against this retreat of independence and any disregard for the worldwide law of law since Federation.

Dutton has never altered his opinion of China. Instead, he’s camouflaged them with a softer voice, and in what he chooses to stress. Naturally, things have changed and Australia presently has a much better relationship with China. But tremendously, Dutton needs to appeal to the local Chinese-Australian citizens.

At the 2022 election, the Democrats took a big hit among citizens of Chinese heritage.

The party’s review of its election performance, undertaken by former party director Brian Loughnane and frontbencher Jane Hume, said:” In the top 15 seats by Chinese ancestry the swing against the Party ( on a 2PP basis ) was 6.6 %, compared to 3.7 % in other seats. Nowadays, there are more than 1.2 million Chinese citizens living in Australia. During this legislative session, reestablishing the Party’s partnership with the Chinese community may be top of mind.

Reid and Bennelong in NSW and Chisholm and Aston in Victoria are peripheral Work votes that the Democrats want to win because of the significance of the Chinese voting. This weekend, Dutton ( and the PM) will go a Lunar New Year festival in Box Hill in Melbourne.

It’s significant that David Coleman, named by Dutton next trip as the opponent’s new spokeswoman on international matters, has worked extensively with the Taiwanese community.

The talented James Paterson, one of the finalists for the position, was one of them. Paterson’s continued involvement in domestic politics may have had stronger justifications, but his hardline attitude toward China might have been a part of the equation.

Talking up the good side of the Coalition’s report on China, Dutton harked back to the filing of the free trade agreement under the Abbott state, and said” we want there to be common respect in the relationship”.

Over its years in government, the Coalition’s partnership with China has varied between rational compassion and suspicious anger. Things started to get worse when the Turnbull state called China out over international intervention, passed legislation, and removed Huawei from the 5G network.

The Morrison state therefore demanded an investigation into the causes and management of the Covid outbreak in Wuhan, which considerably sunk.

Despite Dutton’s optimism, it’s more than probable that, regardless of who is in charge, managing the China marriage after the vote might be more difficult than it has been during this one.

The Albanese state is cite the significantly improved diplomatic relationship as one of its most significant efforts in foreign policy. China has brought Australia out of the deep freeze, lifting the A$ 20 billion ( US$ 12.4 billion ) worth of trade barriers it had imposed. Governmental and speech markets have resumed. Albanians are favored in China.

The debate surrounding the new Taiwanese artificial intelligence system DeepSeek comes just as the latest sign of persistent security doubts regarding Chinese technology’s penetration.

( Incidentally, Dutton has an account on the Chinese-owned TikTok– despite it being banned from official government devices – in part to engage with the local Chinese community, as well as with younger people generally. )

Australia’s minerals business is likely prone to Taiwanese displeasure. The Senate, in the next month, will consider the government’s Potential Made in Australia policy, which provides a tax opportunity for processing essential nutrients.

The Chinese have a stronghold in this running and have shown a commitment to use it, such as against Japan. Producers in Australia have had a negative impact from China’s multi-billion money investment in nickel processing in Indonesia.

The change in Australian government undoubtedly contributed to the improvement in the diplomatic relationship, but it was also heavily influenced by China’s individual interests. Also, the future of the connection is more in China’s hands than in Australia’s.

China analyst Richard McGregor, from the Lowy Institute, says:” Relations with China are essentially dangerous. The day-by-day connections have returned to a degree of normal. However, all of the fundamental stresses that led to animosity are also present.

These include China’s “military confidence in the region, contest between the US and China, Australia’s worry about foreign meddling and hackers, China’s efforts to build their strength in the Pacific at the cost of Australia. None of that has gone aside”, McGregor says. The biggest change in recent years is that China has grown significantly more effective and willing to spread its wings.

Australia may find itself in the fire if there is a major deterioration in the US-China connection under Donald Trump, especially if his price policy causes a trade war. Simon Jackman, from the University of Sydney, warns that if US policy hit the ( already struggling ) Chinese economy, that would affect Australian exporters.

According to Jackman,” US tariffs or transfer bans that slowed China’s market do cause some short-medium headaches for American exporters.” If global supply chains had to re-equilibrate in response to an revolution in the US-China trade relationship, Australian export business may find themselves looking for opportunities abroad, as in Trump Mark 1 and Covid.

Surprisingly, the earlier search for diverse markets when the Chinese imposed restrictions on American producers may have helped exporters prepare for such a disaster.

Michelle Grattan is academic fellow, University of Canberra

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The end of Israel’s settler colonialism – Asia Times

My baby emerged from German mankind’s fascistic calamity in the 1920s–1940s. Israel’s study with immigrant colonialism in Palestine was also the result of that catastrophe. This content refers to both these occurrences to analyze the current Palestine-Israel crisis.

My motivations or certification for writing this article begin with the fact that my paternal grandmother and grandfather were murdered at the Nazi concentration camp in Mauthausen. My husband’s sister was killed in Auschwitz. Years of concentration camp focus went on for my family and her sister.

Due to these circumstances, my kids emigrated from Europe and established a home in the United States. I have tried to understand their abuse and the sophisticated effects this had on my career, both directly and indirectly, like some other descendants of victims who witnessed for crimes.

Different heirs respond to what transpired. Some turn their attentions toward the larger universe and its background in search of security in a survival-focused withdrawal. Some make an effort to find comfort by believing that some or all of the world has changed since the circumstances that gave rise to socialism’s oppression.

Some suffer long-simmering combinations of helplessness, rage, and worry that it will happen afterwards. Among them are those who fight authoritarianism wherever it reappears, as well as those who perpetrate additional abuse phases against another. Some continue to try to arrive at a consensus through writing articles and books.

Israel attempted to implement resident colonialism in a manner similar to earlier Western colonialisms that had been established all over the world. That work had a remarkable individual impact on me in some ways. Without understanding why, I made the decision to enroll in a Harvard and Radcliffe undergraduate system that sent 20 of us to East Africa as volunteer teachers for a summertime of training. I began to understand what resident colonization meant.

Using study from the data of London’s Colonial Office and the British Museum, my doctoral thesis after came from Yale. My resulting guide,” The Economics of Colonialism: Britain and Kenya, 1870–1930″ ( New Haven, Yale University Press, 1974 ), tried to examine Kenya’s resident colonial economy.

Britain had expelled the country’s tribal people and left a few thousand of its light émigrés in charge of the rich mountains. In addition to land and police protection, Britain provided its émigrés with caffeine seeds, transportation, and a business to run a Kenya-grown caffeine export business. The thousands of Kenyan Blacks who were forced to relocate into constrained reservations realized they were insufficient to live on.

Therefore, they had to perform low-wage work on the coffee plantations of the light inhabitants to survive. The British colonial government, which rigged a mercilessly exploitative resident colonial system, was funded by taxes on those low wages. The better-known apartheid in South Africa was comparable to this financial and racial segregation in Kenya.

Such economic systems create regular resistance ranging from determined personal and small team acts to structured rebellions. These acts of resistance occurred in Kenya, South Africa, and somewhere also. They were frequently repressed by Britain.

In Kenya, later, administrators gathered around Jomo Kenyatta and mobilized the so-called Kenya Land and Freedom Army to fight. Their conflict with the British state was commonly known as the Mau Mau rebellion in the 1950s.

That uprising’s dying works included 63 English military officers, 33 inhabitants, more than 1, 800 local police and supplementary soldiers, and the widely held guesstimate of more than 11, 000 Kenyan rebels. The British repressed the revolution, imprisoned Kenyatta, and violently declared success.

Britain’s triumph, however, sounded the death bell for its Kenya town. Mau Mau provided an example of the rising resistance and revolution that the British would continue to face in the wake of the colonist colonies they had founded. These were viewed by American officials as rising costs for the colonies that they could never afford. Since the end of World War II, European colonialisms have been almost extinct almost anywhere.

European leaders had to work within the traditional context to accommodate this. Soon after Mau Mau, Britain acknowledged Kenya’s regional freedom, freed Kenyatta, and accepted him as Kenya’s new president. Independence ended Kenya’s resident colonialism.

European leaders were profoundly affected by the Kenya training in settler colonialism, but it also demonstrated that Israeli leaders refused to take lessons from it. Most Israeli officials were determined to impose resident colonialism on the Israeli people and forcefully protect it because of the special biographies of Zionism and the Jews of Europe.

Arab and Muslim opposition that has persisted since Israel’s declaration of independence in May 1948 has erupted. Mass demonstrations and extensive rebellions have sprang from that resistance and attracted more and more external support ( from Arab, Islamic, and other sources ). The demise of earlier Western colonialisms resulted in enormous challenges for Jewish efforts to create and maintain a new civilization.

Forming an alliance with a global energy that could support its resident colonialism was a critical component of their reaction to those difficulties. Israel was given the advantage of its close relationship with the US, making it its main military ally in the Middle East, the United States ‘ powerful military expansion to the region where significant global energy resources were located. Undercutting Israel’s first socialist, totalitarian, and kibbutzim parts was facilitated by the empire with the United States.

The majority of Zionist officials gladly accepted this alliance’s cost. Another cost was Israel’s defense, economic, and political dependent on the United States. Ultimately, Israeli leaders established robust family and cultural ties to US and European partners who were financially and politically powerful. In these ways, Israeli officials hoped that resident colonialism would survive and prosper despite numerous historical occurrences that demonstrated often.

For some years it seemed, to several inside and outside Israel, that its leaders ‘ approach and connections may safe its immigrant colonialism. But then what transpired in Kenya started to occur again in Israel ( each under different circumstances ). Palestinians resisted, large actions followed, and lastly, prominent, organized rebellions arose. victories over each in turn turned out to be simple preludes to afterward, higher forms of criticism with ever more international support. victories by Israel resembled those of their American counterparts in Kenya.

Israel and Palestine are extremely aware that the prospect of unending war will likely result in even more deaths and injuries, physical and psychological harm, and economic and political losses. The survivors of Israel’s extraordinary violence in Gaza are now emerging more motivated, better-equipped, and equipped with more powerful weapons to fight. Many of the babies of those subjects are determined to put an end to Israel’s colonization.

History, and then day itself, is on the Palestinians ‘ aspect. Even a steadfast supporter of Israel, such as former Secretary of State Antony Blinken, had to face a difficult fact ( even though he neither acknowledged its historical significance nor its political repercussions ). He said,” Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost. That will lead to a permanent war and an unending rebellion.

Britain’s dying kingdom forced its understanding of Kenya’s democracy in 1963 and the finish of its resident colonialism. The United States empire’s present decline is imposing something identical in Israel. Israel’s most important alliance is getting closer to the finish Britain reached in Kenya following the Mau Mau uprising following the most recent and worst of the Gaza conflict.

The risks and costs of its ally with Israel are rising faster than the benefits, according to growing numbers of US officials. Many have been persuaded, including US people, that providing Israel with money and weapons rendered the United States” involved in a murder” and, consequently, isolated worldwide. Donald Trump’s peace was in effect immediately.

Much less will be worth the much less important factors than the more fundamental path that is currently being followed. How and how it functions and how Israel prevents and evades the continuous criticism. According to history, Benjamin Netanyahu or his successors may later become disconnected from the United States. Their lost empire may hasten the close of Israel’s resident colonialism.

Richard D. Wolff is visiting doctor in the New School University’s Graduate Program in International Affairs and professor of economics professor at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.

Wolff’s regular present, “Economic Update”, is syndicated by more than 100 television channels and goes to millions via various TV systems and YouTube. His most recent book with Democracy at Work is” Understanding Capitalism” ( 2024 ), which responds to requests from readers of his earlier books:” Understanding Socialism” and” Understanding Marxism”.

This content was produced by Market for All, a initiative of the Independent Media Institute, and is republished with authority.

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Philippines anxiously waits for Trump to show his China hand – Asia Times

US President Donald Trump has been somewhat restrained in his statements regarding his top rival China in the wake of a burst of professional orders, business battle bluster, and colonial ambitions.

Trump has stated that the goal of his foreign policy is to avoid conflict and end existing problems while portraying himself as a “peacemaker.” In a social media post a few hours before his official opening, Trump said,” President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the planet more peaceful and safe. I anticipate that we will work together to address some issues. &nbsp,

That and other conciliatory gestures, such as an executive order to halt TikTok’s ban and a delay in imposing threatened 60 % tariffs on all Chinese goods, are evoking the possibility that Trump will create a new” Monroe Doctrine” order that will allow China to consolidate its hold on East Asia. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

That, in turn, is raising issues of possible withdrawal among America’s front allies in the Pacific, not least in the Philippines, which has played a vital role in the outgoing Biden administration’s prolonged punishment plan vis-a-vis China. That included granting access to significant Spanish military installations close to Taiwan and launching the powerful Typhon missile system from Philippine soil.

Former Associate Justice Antonio Carpio, who played a key part in Manila’s traditional 2016 mediation success at The Hague on its promises versus China in the South China Sea, stated in a recent press meeting,” We don’t really know what Trump did do… The US has been an isolationist country half in history [before World War II ]… and they can end up isolationist again, [that is fear], ] that Trump did agree to divide the world.

” What if tomorrow Trump says we can’t blame China for invading]the ] Spratlys]in the South China Sea]. We have to strengthen our defensive capabilities, we have to modernize the Armed Forces of the Philippines. We can only rely on ourselves, according to the influential magistrate at this week’s UTAK Forum in Manila.

Carpio is not alone. Other well-known Philippine political figures have voiced their concerns, including former Senator Antonio Trillanes, who developed close relationships with the newly appointed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during the turbulent Rodrigo Duterte era.

Trump is “very unpredictable, nothing is in stone,” he said of Trump in a recent interview, while also expressing hope that more traditionally-minded cabinet members like Rubio will carry the load in keeping America’s crucial alliances in Asia. A mutual defense agreement between the US and the Philippines mandates that Washington be prepared to defend Manila in the event of an armed conflict.

Trump’s Beijing-friendly rhetoric may very well indicate a radical reorientation in Washington’s international relations and a significant thaw with China, in addition to the appointment of so-called “restrainers” who seek to restrict US military involvement in key defense positions.

In response, the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. government is cutting back on defense spending and actively diversifying the Philippines ‘ strategic alliances with nations outside of America in the Indo-Pacific. &nbsp,

&nbsp,” We are not dependent on a single partner or ally. Even in our own resupply missions]in the South China Sea] we do things independently despite offers of help from our ally]America]. We are modernizing, strengthening our alliances, and upscaling our personnel…and deepening our integration and interoperability with like-minded nations”, the Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP ) spokesperson, Colonel Francel Margareth Padilla, said at the UTAK forum. &nbsp,

She continued, highlighting the Philippine strategic elite’s  anticipation of potential geopolitical disruptions and highlighting that” we are not dependent on one particular nation and we are expanding our strategic relationships with other like-minded powers who also share our interest in upholding a rules-based international order.”

In historical terms, &nbsp, Trump’s foreign policy approach is not unique and in many ways represents the latest iteration of the so-called” Jacksonian” tradition. &nbsp, According to historian H W Brands, this school of policy thought is,” ]t ] he most militant]tradition ] …their aim in fighting has been American victory, not the salvation of the world…. Their only concern is the fervent defense of American values and freedoms abroad.

It’s telling that Trump openly and frequently praises the early-19th century, swashbuckling president Andrew Jackson, whose portrait hung in Trump’s Oval Office, as&nbsp,” an amazing figure in American history — very unique]in ] so many ways”. Crucially, a host of Jacksonian figures have joined Trump’s second administration, with some occupying key positions in the Pentagon.

Andrew Byers, formerly an obscure nonresident fellow at Texas A&amp, M University, co-authored a piece in which he openly advocated for quid pro quo with China at the expense of the Philippines in the name of” strategic restraint” just months before his appointment as the Department of Defense’s new deputy assistant secretary for South and Southeast Asia.

” If Trump wins a second term, the intra-party policy debate between neoconservative primacists, China hawks, and ‘ America First ‘ conservative realists will be decided, provided that this time he hires people who agree with his views”, Byers wrote, predicting a major shift in American foreign policy under a second Trump administration.

In response, he has argued for the negotiation of a” cooperation spiral” with China, whereby the US unilaterally “removes US military forces or weapons systems from the Philippines in exchange for the [ Chinese Coast Guard ] executing fewer patrols ]in the South China Sea.”

Byers has been joined by other similar-minded individuals, including Michael Dimino, the newly appointed Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, who has publicly backed American strategic repression in critical theaters.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man seen by some as a” shadow president”, has been running parallel diplomacy with America’s adversaries in recent weeks. Through his Tesla automaker company, Musk, who is known for having comparatively sympathetic views toward Russia, has more importantly established important commercial ties with Beijing.

Top Filipino strategists, including former Admiral Rommel Ong, have publicly warned about a potential push for a Sino-American grand bargain, harming smaller allies like the Philippines.

” ]Musk ] has substantial investments in China so he might swing it the other way ]especially in the event of a crisis], that is my concern … we have to accept he has influence on policy”, he told the author.

Senior Filipino officials also maintain a cautious optimism about the Philippines ‘ strategic resilience and the bilateral alliance.

At the recent UTAK forum in Manila, National Security Council ( NSC ) spokesman Jonathan Malaya pointed out how the Philippines is a trustworthy and proactive partner capable of winning over even a transactionalist White House.” It may be too early for us to speculate,” he said. &nbsp,

” We have shown to the US that we have been ramping up our defense spending ,]we have developed ] a very clear comprehensive archipelagic defense concept]to protect our waters ] … if we follow the logic]of Trump’s call for ] NATO to do its part … we are also doing the same”, he added, underscoring the positive trajectory in upgrading the bilateral alliance in recent years.

Malaya argued that bilateral defense cooperation won’t fundamentally deteriorate under the recent US State Department 90-day aid freeze, which, “my understanding is that it doesn’t cover defense cooperation, but primarily USAID and development-related projects.”

” All their projects here are aligned with Trump’s vision of making the US more secure”, he added, expecting more continuity than change under a second Trump presidency. At the same forum, Philippine Coast Guard Commodore Jay Tarriela expressed similar sentiments.

” He can say whatever he wants, but key cabinet members ]are reassuring ] and America is a mature democracy where institutions will ensure the US will remain as an anchor of a rules-based international order”, argued Tarriela, who has been at the forefront of Manila’s” Transparency Initiative” focused on exposing and countering China’s aggression in the South China Sea.

&nbsp,” Our fight in the]South China Sea ] is for]anybody ] who wants to preserve a rules-based international order … that’s why many countries are working with us”, he added, underscoring the Philippines ‘ diverse network of partners in Europe and across the Indo-Pacific beyond America.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian

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Empires go bankrupt suddenly, then gradually – Asia Times

Subscribe right away and get the first year for only$ 99. With a one-month trial for only$ 1, subscribe now&nbsp.

Does DeepSeek deep-six the US business?

Steve Hsu and David P. Goldman examine the potential financial impact of the most recent DeepSeek horror, which raised concerns about US tech companies being overvalued and its wider effects on financial industry and federal loan.

China pops America’s software balloon

Scott Foster analyzes the impact of China’s miracle DeepSeek R1 open-source AI design on the US tech industry, especially its destructive effect on AI valuations, business strategies, and Washington’s approach to business policy.

Migration, strength, and fiscal crises arranged to part Europe

Diego Faßnacht warns that Europe is approaching a bursting place due to three connected crises—migration, energy policy, and governmental governance—that threaten not only financial security but the very fabric of the European Union.

Ukraine’s choices shrinking quickly as Russia makes proper gains

According to James Davis, Russia’s influence over the functional initiative across the battlefield is quickly deteriorating, making it worse for Ukraine’s proper position. The start of a southern force is imminent, which would essentially reduce Ukraine off from the Black Sea.

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How DeepSeek revolutionized AI’s cost calculus – Asia Times

State-of-the-art artificial intelligence systems like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini and Anthropic’s Claude have captured the public mind by producing competent language in many cultures in response to user causes. These businesses have also made articles with their significant investments in developing stronger designs.

DeepSeek, a Chinese AI company, has stymied expectations regarding the amount of funding required to create the most recent and greatest AIs. In the process, they’ve cast doubt on the billions of dollars of funding by the great AI people.

I study system teaching. DeepSeek’s destructive debut comes lower not to any beautiful technological breakthrough but to a time-honored exercise: finding efficiency. In a niche that consumes large computing sources, that has proved to be important.

Where the prices are located

Building a huge language model is the first step in developing such potent AI systems. Given the preceding words, a large vocabulary model predicts the following word. A large language model might predict that the next word in a sentence will be” Einstein” if the first sentence is” The theory of relativity was discovered by Albert.” In a procedure known as pretraining, big language versions are trained to become proficient in making such projections.

Pretraining requires a lot of processing power and data. The businesses use online crawling and book scanning to gather data. Graphic processing devices, or GPUs, are typically used for processing.

Why pictures? It turns out that straight arithmetic is the same branch of mathematics that is used to support both system design and the artificial neural networks that support significant language versions. Hunderts of billions of numbers are privately stored in large language versions as parameters or weights. It is these workouts that are modified during pretraining.

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Big language models use a lot of computing power, which results in a lot of energy.

Pretraining is, nevertheless, not enough to offer a consumer goods like ChatGPT. A huge language model with pre-training typically lacks the ability to follow people instructions. It might also not remain aligned with individual preferences. For example, it may result dangerous or harsh terminology, both of which are current in words on the web.

The pre-trained design, therefore, typically goes through further stages of training. In teaching setting, where the design is shown examples of human guidance and expected responses, is one of these stages.

A step called encouragement learning from mortal feedback follows after training tuning. People annotators are shown numerous large-language design responses to the same prompt at this stage. Finally, the annotators are asked to indicate which response they prefer.

It is easy to see how expenses add up when building an AI concept: hiring top-quality AI ability, building a data center with hundreds of GPUs, collecting information for pretraining, and running pretraining on GPUs. Also, there are costs associated with the human feedback stages of training tuning and reinforcement learning by collecting and computing data.

All included, prices for building a cutting-edge Artificial type can jump up to US$ 100 million. GPU instruction accounts for a major portion of the total cost.

When the unit is finished, the costs does not end. When the unit is deployed and responds to customer prompts, it uses more processing, known as test period or conclusion time compute.

GPUs are also required for check time computation. With their most recent model, OpenAI announced a new phenomenon in December 2024: as test time compute increased, the model improved in scientific reasoning tasks like math tournament and dynamic coding problems.

Slimming down resource consumption

Thus, it appeared that investing in more computation during both training and inference was the key to creating the best AI models in the world. However, DeepSeek stepped up and reversed this pattern.

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DeepSeek sent shockwaves through the financial sector’s tech sector.

Their V-series models, culminating in the V3 model, used a series of optimizations to make training cutting-edge AI models significantly more economical. According to their technical report, V3 training cost less than$ 6 million.

They admit that this cost does not include costs of hiring the team, doing the research, trying out various ideas and data collection. However,$ 6 million is still a respectable sum for training a model that is much more expensive than the leading AI models that have been developed.

The cost savings were not just a magic number. It was the result of numerous wise engineering choices, including reducing the number of bits used to represent model weights, and improving the neural network architecture to reduce communication overhead as data travels between GPUs.

The DeepSeek team did not have access to high-performance GPUs like the Nvidia H100 because of U.S. export restrictions against China. Instead they used Nvidia H800 GPUs, which Nvidia designed to be lower performance so that they comply with U. S. export restrictions. Working with this restriction appears to have prompted the DeepSeek team to ingenuity even more.

Additionally, DeepSeek made some improvements to make inference less expensive, lowering the cost of maintaining the model. Moreover, they released a model called R1 that is comparable to OpenAI’s o1 model on reasoning tasks.

Resetting expectations

They released all the model weights for V3 and R1 publicly. Anyone can download and modify their models to improve or customize them. Furthermore, DeepSeek released their models under the permissive MIT license, which allows others to use the models for personal, academic or commercial purposes with minimal restrictions.

The landscape of large AI models has been fundamentally altered by DeepSeek. An economically trained open weights model is now comparable to more expensive and closed models that demand paid subscription plans.

The stock market and the research community will need some time to adjust to this new reality.

Ambuj Tewari is professor of statistics, University of Michigan

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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In Pakistan smog season, news outlets miss stories about solutions – Asia Times

It isn’t just foggy — it’s suffocating. During dust season in Lahore, Pakistan, anything as simple as breathing may be a major health threat. Individuals keep their windows shut to defend themselves, yet they can smell smoke yet home.

When we call family and friends in Pakistan, they frequently have to leave because they are coughing and gasping from the haze and the air they breathe.

This is typical for people living in many of Pakistan’s big cities. In recent years, the haze has gotten worse. Fine particulate air pollution known as PM2.5 increased by 25 % in 2024 compared with 2023.

Smog started to engulfing Punjab’s big cities, halting living there. In November 2024, 129, 229 people visited facilities due to respiratory conditions.

Due in large part to the dust that drew down on cities like Lahore and Sheikhupura every spring, Pakistan is the fourth-highest poisoned nation in the world. The air quality standards set forth by the World Health Organization are so low that life expectancy in these places is seven times shorter than where they are met.

Our analysis of how weather issues are presented in the media revealed that the internet have a significant impact on educating the public about smog’s dangers and causes. However, frequently the investigating disregards the man burden and ignores its effects on health and lifestyle.

Clouded stories

We analyzed 356 news reports related to dust in Pakistan during 2017 and 2019, which appeared in six media. Only 15 % of the stories discussed the negative effects of smog on public health, with the majority mentioning precautionary measures like wearing masks, moisturising skin ( to create a barrier effect against environmental substances ), eating a balanced diet ( to maintain a healthy immune system ), and limiting time spent outdoors when smog is heavy.

Our research demonstrates how Bangladeshi media view smog as a seasonal annoyance as opposed to a significant public health emergency necessitated immediate and lasting attention.

As we gathered information, we discovered that smog-related news content started appearing in both English and Urdu papers after the matter became more prevalent. Most media readers, particularly in Urdu papers, only seemed engaged in smog-related reports during smog period which is from October to February, though cloud hangs in the sky throughout the year.

Muslim media tended to assign dust to nearby factors, including urbanization, modernization, car emissions, and the burning of misuse or crops. Government initiatives to lessen mist effects were still crucial in the media, but they neglected to mention numerous sustainable policy options.

There are other local issues at play these, too. Despite the direction of the prevailing winds, the Bangladeshi media blame fumes from stubble burning on the American side of the border for haze outbreaks.

The media often cover the devastating effects of dust, such as the strain on the market, closing of schools, transfer delays and power supply disruptions. There were more than 20 % of media reports in each magazine about these effects.

However, there were far fewer stories in the media about the negative effects of smog on people’s health and about communities where they were susceptible, such as day-to-day workers who worked out and breathed toxic air.

Smog seen through a glass of remedies

By adopting a more human-centred and solutions-journalism approach ( rigorous reporting that’s focused on responses to particular social and environmental challenges ), the media landscape in Pakistan could become much more comprehensive.

Solutions-focused dust reporting should ultimately include climate justice by demonstrating how vulnerable communities are more adversely impacted by haze. With more human-centered account points, the internet may reveal the health relevance of dust.

Linking routine actions, such as burning fossil fuels, crops and waste, to major health issues, such as respiratory disease is essential. Powerful storytelling can demonstrate how reducing those effects can improve human health.

The impact of sustainable solutions on the media could be increased. Currently, the media focus mainly on stories about short-term policy actions. That includes highlighting the school’s prohibition of outdoor activities and holidays, as well as publishing reports about the number of cases of farmers burning crops in newspapers. Additionally, taxes may be paid on tickets issued to smoke-emitting vehicles, industrial units that have been sealed during the smog season, and the temporary pause in development projects to combat smog.

The 2019 media coverage we analyszd highlighted sustainable solutions in just 12 instances. That included stories about tree planting, rooftop gardening and urban forestry. Although Urdu is largely read and understood by people, Urdu newspapers have fewer stories that focus on solutions journalism than English newspapers.

Solution-focused journalism can help demonstrate how rigorous policy choices can be used to address environmental issues and open up new opportunities, such as knowing which trees are best for reducing air pollution.

The first step in improving the public’s understanding of smog is to increase the scientific and environmental literacy of Pakistani journalists. Once reporters and editors become more knowledgeable about science, they will feel more equipped to create compelling stories that tell compelling stories about the air quality in Pakistan and other developing nations.

Rabia Qusien works for George Washington University’s Alliance for a Sustainable Future as a postdoc. David Robbins is a co-director of the Dublin City University Institute for Climate and Society and an associate professor at the School of Communications.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Harassment of Taiwan an ominous clue to Trump 2.0 foreign policy – Asia Times

Taiwan, which is already threatened by growing defense stress from the People’s Republic of China, is under increased pressure from US President Donald Trump’s risk to impose tariffs on imported semiconductors. &nbsp,

Trump’s danger also points to the rise of unilateralism in the White House, at least for the time being, in place of trying to establish a social security bulwark against China.

On January 27, Trump&nbsp, said&nbsp, that “in the very near future” the US government would impose tariffs on foreign-produced semiconductors, explaining that the objective is to “return the production of these essential goods to the United States” .&nbsp, He then specifically mentioned that chip-makers “left us and they went to Taiwan” .&nbsp,

Trump stated that he favors unusual device manufacturers setting up factories in the US. &nbsp, He pledged to accomplish this through tariffs, which he said might be “25, 50, or 100 %” .&nbsp, As a basis for comparison, in recent years the average US tariff rate has been around 2 %.

This is a depressing development for Taiwan, which has already experienced the injustice of Trump saying on different situations that Taiwan” stole” America’s semiconductor fabrication industry.

In response to Washington’s need to reposition global supply chains away from China, Taiwan’s top chip manufacturer, TSMC, agreed during the first Trump Administration to set up semiconductor factory infrastructure in Arizona.

This is in spite of the fact that China may be more vulnerable to attack from China through offshoring of chip production, but because Beijing’s financial dependence on Taiwan-made chips dissuades Beijing from starting a conflict that may disrupt the chip supply.

The first of those Arizona factories is currently operational, with the first building slated to open in 2028. It appears that TSMC was compensated for moving significantly in the direction of Trump’s original requirement when there was a potential new US market risk of up to 100 % price.

Trump wouldn’t be able to fulfill one of his main campaign promises, which is lowering the cost of living for American, by imposing tariffs on Taiwan-made chips.

Usually, it takes five to eight years to build a semiconductor stock. Even if device manufacturers quickly decided to set up shop in the US after Trump’s announcement, they wouldn’t begin producing chips until Trump was in office. &nbsp, In the meantime, the charges Americans pay for consumer devices had likely&nbsp, increase rapidly.

According to a 2023&nbsp, research, British firms import 44 percentage of their reasoning chips and 24 percent of their memory cards from Taiwan.

Trump’s abuse of Taiwan is a concern for the Lai Ching-te state. &nbsp, Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party ( DPP ) puts relatively heavy emphasis on the US as Taiwan’s security guarantor.

The opposition Kuomintang ( KMT ), on the other hand, questions US dependability, echoing a similar&nbsp, theme&nbsp, found in PRC propaganda. &nbsp, A KMT-affiliated consider tank&nbsp, said&nbsp, in January, for instance, that Taiwan could certainly depend on military aid from the Trump Administration and may seek to improve relations with China.

The political divide is reflected in the 2024 model of a&nbsp, survey&nbsp, administrated by Taiwan’s Academia Sinica and Soochow University. &nbsp, Among survey respondents who identified as DPP citizens, 71 % said they consider the US reliable. &nbsp, But only 16 % of KMT voters held that view. Trump might influence Taiwan’s votes to prefer policies that are more in line with Beijing’s demands.

The new tariff risk relates to Taiwan-made semiconductors in a wider sense of US foreign policy. The following Trump Administration makes hints about two potential US grand methods as it takes office.

Blunt unliateralism

The first is a direct unilateralism in which America unapologetically looks out for number one and only engages in global cooperation, including alliances, if it is quickly and clearly successful.

Robert Lighthizer, the then-US Trade Representative, listens during a Senate Finance Committee hearing on President Donald Trump’s 2020 Trade Policy Agenda. Photo: Anna Moneymaker / Pool

This is Trump’s favored method. When it comes to taxes, one of the international policy instruments most extolled by Trump and counselors for as&nbsp, Robert Lighthizer&nbsp, and&nbsp, Peter Navarro, both friends and foes get much the same care. Trump has threatened tariffs on China, Mexico, and his country’s alliance, Denmark, as well as its cool foes.

China-focused social safety

US-led social safety with a focus on battling China might be the second great strategy for the US.

In this perspective, US security and prosperity are bolstered by both the US’s ability to control the world and implicitly. It seeks to use alliances and security alliances as pressure ratios that can help the US influence world politics to its advantage. Friends and allies who will support America’s international agenda have a lot of value because China and its allies, the Authoritarian Bloc, and other Authoritarian Bloc members, are critical to the country’s agenda.

Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State. Photo: Wikipedia

This viewpoint is best represented by Marco Rubio, the novel secretary of state. Rubio believes that good alliances advance the US nationwide interest despite repeating the new celebration belief that US allies may improve their defense spending to prevent them from overpaying for US protection. &nbsp, In his assurance reading, Rubio affirmed the effectiveness of relationships. &nbsp, He&nbsp, met with&nbsp, his Quad ( US, Japan, India and Australia ) counterparts during his first full day on the job.

Cost-benefit

These two methods differ on whether or not America’s security alliances with other countries produce a profit – in Rubio’s thoughts, making America” safer” – that justifies the prices the US pays to keep these alliances. &nbsp, For Trump, the answer is no, while Rubio would probably answer well.

Taiwan is a front-line position with both political and strategic significance. Even though Taiwan enjoys a trade deficit with the US and controls some of the business share in some sectors that US businesses adore, its continued ability to resist spontaneous and violent invasion by the PRC is advantageous to the US.

Taiwan’s angry neighbor across the Taiwan Strait even seriously overpowers its economically and physically. &nbsp, Taiwan pays for the arms the US provides, and the US pays Taiwan no charges for military foundations. &nbsp, Taiwan is a net contribution to the US-sponsored democratic local order.

For these reasons, it is unsatisfactory that Trump sees Taiwan as a destination for a US mattress. &nbsp, As in other Trump claims about Taiwan, unilateralism has prevailed over social stability. &nbsp, The idea of just imposing a large US tariff on semiconductor imports has a cursory logic, but the functional impact may be diplomatically, economically and carefully destructive. &nbsp, Maybe Rubio did persuade Trump never to follow through.

Denny Roy is a senior colleague at the East-West Center, Honolulu.

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