US losing crucial hypersonic race to China and Russia – Asia Times

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Hypersonic weapons offer revolutionary war-fighting capabilities, but unsettled modern flaws, operational flaws, and tactical risks may outweigh their potential benefits for the US military.

Significant questions remain about the operation of hypersonic weapons despite the US’s increased efforts to develop them in real-world scenarios, according to a report released this month by the US Congressional Research Service ( CRS ).

The US is still focused on conventionally armed systems, which demand more accuracy and cutting-edge technology than their nuclear-armed counterparts, despite reports that rivals China and Russia have operational hypersonic glide vehicles ( HGV ) in place.

No US fast weapons system has yet reached full operationality, and prototypes are still being evaluated. Criticisms question the usefulness of these deterrents and show their unclear purposes and higher costs.

However, adversaries ‘ progress in hypersonic technologies raise worries about eroding the US’s competitive advantage.

Despite receiving a significant budget increase of US$ 6.9 billion for fast study in FY2025, issues relating to detection, defense, and the viability of wide-area protection against such threats are still unresolved.

Because the weapons are designed to evade regular monitoring and interception frameworks, US missile defense systems are ineffective at repressing supersonic threats.

In response to growing Chinese and Russian threats, analysts disagree on the value of these opportunities, while the US Congress must strike a balance between strengthening fast defense and improving insulting capabilities.

This ambiguity makes the US Department of Defense’s ( DOD ) strategic calculus more complex and may necessitate new arms control measures or risk mitigation strategies.

In a 2024 Military Review post, Andreas Schmidt makes the claim that fast weapons have considerable advantages because of their great speed, agility, and survivability. They shorten the time it takes the enemy’s mechanisms and shorten the chances of intrusion because they can travel at speeds higher than Mach 5.

By operating within the environment at levels between 20 and 60 km, these arms can prevent interceptors while delivering quick and accurate impacts, according to Schmidt.

Joshua Pollack makes reference to US fast weapons tests frequently failing because of extreme development plans and immature technologies in a January 2022 Defense One article.

The DOD’s scramble to quickly design and evaluation these weapons has led to poor design, limited testing and unsatisfactory oversight, Pollack argues. Failed tests involving the AGM-183 Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon ( ARRW) and the US Army’s Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon ( LRHW), along with a canceled test in March 2023 due to battery issues, highlight these challenges.

Despite numerous losses, Francis Mahon and Punch Moulton argue in a January 2025 post for 1945 that adopting a” Crash Strong” technique is crucial for US weapon supremacy.

This process involves rapid tests, learning from failures and incremental improvements, and accelerating development and technological development. They claim that the US can quickly adapt and improve its fast functions by regularly testing and accepting failures, keeping it away of its closest-to-peer rivals China and Russia.

Even if the US gets its fast weapons programme up to speed, David Wright and Cameron Tracy notice in an article in the March 2024 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that extraordinary accuracy issues arise as a result of severe infrared stress and communication issues while flying.

According to the record, these problems affect targeting devices and delicate electronics. Hypersonic weapons can also be slowed down by great pull during low-altitude flight, making them easier targets for missile defence techniques.

In a RealClear Defense article, Shawn Rostker contends that the high cost of supersonic weapons, which are one-third more expensive than nuclear weapons with nimble warheads, does not support their military benefits. Cruise weapons or robots may suffice for several expeditions, Rostker says.

At the operational level, the US must integrate hypersonic missiles to counter anti-access/area-denial ( A2/AD ) strategies and ensure command-and-control resilience against adversary interference.

In a split January 2025 RealClear Defense content, Mahon and Moulton mention that hypersonic missiles essentially counter US near-peer adversaries ‘ A2/AD method.

These arms give US air and naval makes greater administrative flexibility by allowing them to negligence and destroy integrated air defense systems from a distance and defeat long-range anti-ship techniques.

However, Heather Penney mentions in a May 2023 Air &amp, Space Forces Magazine article that US kill chains—the sequence of steps needed to detect and attack targets —are vulnerable due to their dependence on interconnected components.

China has developed means to encrypt sensors or networks and defeat weapons at the end of the attack, potentially causing the death chain to collapse at each step.

The US must assess the necessity of nuclear-armed hypersonic weapons for strategic deterrence against advanced missile defenses while managing the risks of miscalculation and escalation.

Stephen Reny mentions in a 2020 Strategic Studies Quarterly article that the US may consider using nuclear-armed hypersonic weapons to combat advanced ballistic missile defense ( BMD) systems and restore a credible second-strike capability in relation to China and Russia’s modernizing nuclear arsenals in a 2020 Strategic Studies Quarterly article.

Nuclear-armed hypersonic weapons can bypass missile defenses, ensuring credible retaliation and maintaining global deterrence stability.

In a report from September 2021, Shannon Bugos and Kingston Reif contend that hypersonic weapons undermine strategic stability by raising the possibility of escalation and arms races.

Their maneuverability and speed lessen the response time, causing a complication in the assessment of a threat and causing more mistakes to be made. They present dangers because of the ambiguity of the target and weapon, which makes attacks on dual-use facilities mistaken for nuclear strikes.

America’s stalling US hypersonic weapons program is ultimately a race against failure—one where time, technology and strategy intersect. The US’s ability to overcome its obstacles and match the pace of its adversaries ‘ will determine how well it will impose itself in the military.

More than an arms race, hypersonic weapon competition defines today’s geopolitical contest, and the US must decide whether to accelerate, recalibrate or rethink its approach, arguably before it is too late.

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The US weapon China’s communists fear the most – Asia Times

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America has a tool that frightens Xi Jinping’s inner circle. Nukes? &nbsp, F35s? &nbsp, Attack ships? No. Levies? Trade and tech punishment? No.

It ‘s&nbsp, Public Law 117-263&nbsp, — passed by Congress on December 23, 2022, known even the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023.

Part 6501, in special, is Xi’s poison or worse. It’s clear that Xi and his associates are the subject of attention, and the name of the report says it all:” Survey on Wealth and Corrupt Activities of the Chinese Communist Party”

The Director of National Intelligence may consult with the Secretary of State to release an unidentified statement on the prosperity and crooked activities of the Chinese Communist Party leadership no later than one year after the legislation of this Act.

The estimate specifies numbers including” the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party” — that’s Xi—” and top administration officials in the Central Committee, the Politburo, the Politburo Standing Committee, and any other local Party Secretaries”.

In the CCP pyramid, these are the people who are significant. The CCP’s best leadership is directly affected by this more than any other course of action the British government can get. Apply restrictions and taxes, and Xi and the CCP elite may gladly have ordinary Chinese absorb the pain and consequence, limitlessly.

But explaining away the CCP government’s enormous wealth — to include international bank accounts, businesses, real estate and relatives with “green cards” is challenging — and dangerous — especially while Xi is telling all another Chinese to “eat bitterness”.

The 600 million Chinese people who live on US$ 5 per day and the sizable amount who live on less may not be so knowledge. This problem, which is presumably a part of any marxist party, could actually bring down the CCP. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Problem was a big reason that Free China’s Nationalist, or Kuomintang, government lost to Mao’s socialists in 1949, ceding the island and fleeing to Taiwan — and Xi knows it.

In 2012, &nbsp, Bloomberg&nbsp, and the&nbsp, New York Times&nbsp, reported on CCP elite success — to contain Xi’s personal friends. More than anything this writer has seen in 40 times, the answer was angry. &nbsp, Bloomberg folded — fearing for its enterprise in the PRC. &nbsp, And the New York Times rolled over as well.

But it showed what’s doable — and exposed a lethal CCP risk. The British intelligence society, with its$ 100 billion monthly budget, you probably do even better than a small group of reporters.

Public Law 117-263, Section 6501, ordered the Director of National Intelligence, Avril Haines, &nbsp, and the Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, to get to operate and generate a report — within a month. It was owing December 23, 2023 — and still hasn’t appeared. Haines and Blinken&nbsp, have moved on to their next directorships.

Things may change, but, now that a fresh management is in place. Part 6501 was, in truth, pushed through by Senator Marco Rubio— who is now Secretary of State. And President Trump’s pull for DNI, Tulsi Gabbard, could prove to be made of sterner things than the original store owner, Haines.

Once it is released, Xi’s administration may start putting liens on bank accounts, real estate, and delaying permits and green cards in addition to his vowed anti-corruption efforts.

And find America’s colleagues to join in. For China’s socialist leaders to park their money and a sibling or two, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada are extremely beautiful bolt-holes.

Well, the Trump administration must restore the military, increase the circulation of technology and capital to the PRC, and stop depressive reliance on Chinese factories and supply chains. Even to the level of decoupling.

But it should also perform the one that “makes things specific” for Xi and the CCP management. Carry out Public Law 223-117, Section 6501 — and expose it to great god — and keep exposing it. It’s long late.

With many years of experience in Japan, Colonel Newsham is a withdrew United States Marine and an ex-American minister. He serves as a senior colleague at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies in Japan as well as a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute in the United States. &nbsp, He is the creator of&nbsp,” When China Attacks: A Warning to America”.

This article was originally published in The New York Sun, and it is now republished with the writer’s agreement. Read the original around.

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China fueling a political explosion in the Philippines – Asia Times

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The Ferdinand Marcos Jr administration’s congressional election pattern in trouble, with one focus on the Dutertes on the one hand and their perceived supporters in Beijing on the other.

Almost two-thirds of the Philippine House of Representatives, which is generally supportive of the leader, overwhelmingly voted to remove Vice President Sara Duterte on the grounds of alleged fraud and abuse of power, not the least of which was a veiled threat to assassinate Marcos Jr.

With unusually aggressive language, Marcos Jr. fought the Dutertes in a cudgel-skating match. Marcos Jr launched a side attack on Rodrigo Duterte and the candidates from his clan during a subsequent campaign trip to his home province of Ilocos Norte, where he accompanied the government’s votes and important regional authorities bets.

” None of]my preferred candidates ] are accomplices in pocketing sacks of money, exploiting the pandemic crisis and letting our countrymen get sick and die”, he declared, referring to the Duterte administration’s alleged abysmal handling of and numerous corruption scandals during the Covid-19 pandemic.

” No one of them acts like the follower of a false prophet who has ruined our children and girls.” He continued, referring to Pastor Apollo Quiboloy, an ex-Duterte ally detained on charges of sex and human trafficking, as well as the proliferation of dodgy online Chinese casinos during the previous Rodrigo Duterte administration. None of them defended the POGOS [ Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators ] as the hotbeds of crime and sexual harassment against women.

The president of the Philippines has also raised the stakes by convincingly defending his Duterte-aligned foes as Foreign puppets while highlighting his relatively uncompromising attitude on the South China Sea issues.

” None of them claps for China and is even delighted whenever we are being ocean cannoned, our Coast Guard rammed, fishing blocked, their takes stolen and our territories retaken as their own territory”, he declared, referring to the Duterte generation’s soft-pedaling on China’s violent behavior in the contested waters. &nbsp,

Marcos Jr.’s harsh speech coincides with a comprehensive crackdown on alleged Foreign effect in the Philippines. While the Asian legislature has held hearings subpoenaing suspected pro-China propagandists, the Asian intelligence and security authorities have apprehended different Chinese nationals reportedly involved in spying activities over the past month.

Individuals who support Beijing, such as Ronald Dela Rosa, the former president’s police commander, who has instantly and quickly taken a tougher stance on the South China Sea problems, have also been receiving more public support.

Marcos Jr., who grew to the point of being elected, has consistently taken a firm position on China while doubling down on strengthened security ties with Western partners, including US ally in the joint defense treaty.

He has even reversed another significant Duterte plan legacycies, including the terrible “drug war,” which claimed the lives of tens of thousands of alleged drug traffickers in extrajudicial killings.

In reaction, the ex-president broke with convention and, since last year, has successfully called for the departure of his son in favor of his princess, Vice President Sara Duterte. In his latest explosion, Duterte repeatedly accused Marcos Jr of being a “heroin addiction” without providing information.

The former leader also openly criticized the Senate, the lower chamber tasked with carrying out impeachment trials, for his daughter’s current possible impeachment, as well as for “killing” more than a dozen senators to make way for his favorite candidates.

Recent polls constantly indicate that Marco Jr.’s preferred bettors have a disproportionate advantage over the so-called “magic 12” of possible winners.

Although the Dutertes remain common on their house island of Mindanao and also appreciate the support of key religious groups, they’ve met their match in the Marcos Jr government’s well-oiled technology. And they have a chance of losing in the polls as a result of accusations that they act as Beijing’s proxies in the face of growing anti-China sentiment in the Philippines.

The Marcos Jr. administration announced earlier this year that it had removed the Dutertes from the National Security Council, where both the vice president and the ex-president are typically either ex-officio or executive members. Now, pro-Duterte candidates are also feeling the China-related heat.

“I’ll be frank with you. I am willing to kill myself in the]South China Sea] if they say I am pro-China. In a recent press conference, re-election supporter Senator Ronald dela Rosa declared to reporters that he was ready to start a war in the West Philippine Sea.

” Pro-China? I challenge them, if they want, I will give them a gun and maybe we will attack the bullies in the West Philippine Sea”, he added, somewhat obscurely.

What was once viewed as a vengeful alliance between the Philippines ‘ two most powerful political dynasties has gradually turned into a verbal war. The Marcos Jr administration has increased efforts to combat the Chinese influence that seized the nation during Duterte and was encouraged by Washington and other important allies.

Five Chinese nationals were detained last month after Philippine authorities announced their arrest, five of whom are suspected of espionage. The five suspects were allegedly using allegedly sensitive video footage through drones and military-grade cameras posing as civilian security closed-circuit TVs (CCTVs ) in accordance with the Philippine National Bureau of Investigation ( NBI ).

Days earlier, a Chinese national, along with two local accomplices, were caught in a vehicle carrying surveillance equipment while roaming sensitive military facilities. Philippine security officials assert that the alleged spies were releasing images of Philippine air and naval bases in real-time, as well as information on strategic locations.

Additionally, they were accused of keeping track of Philippine warships ‘ movements while conducting resupply missions in contentious South China Sea regions.

Top Philippine security officials believe that the recent arrests are just the tip of the iceberg of upcoming suppression operations, which speaks to Manila’s concern over recent infiltration of Chinese agents and their related assets.

In a recent interview with The Japan Times, National Security Council assistant director General Jonathan Malaya said,” Most people only think of Chinese activities out at sea, but information and psychological warfare have also become a part of their malign influence.”

The Chinese Communist Party’s United Front Work Department, meanwhile, has allegedly been actively weaponizing its influence among sympathetic groups, including Chinese-Filipino business groups that are dependent on imports from and access to Chinese markets.

According to Malaya, they have significantly increased their actions since February 2023 when the Philippine government began a policy to expose and bring light to what is happening in the West Philippine Sea. They have done this because the Philippines ‘” Transparency Initiative” aimed to expose China’s aggression in disputed waters.

Meanwhile, the proliferation of Beijing-backed troll farms and propagandists who have been actively spreading pro-China narratives that frequently discredit the incumbent government is a major source of concern for a liberal democracy like the Philippines.

A recent AidData study showed that as many as 10, 000 fake accounts were run by China-based elements. According to the findings, Beijing has engaged in a two-pronged strategy that aims to stoke political unrest in the Philippines while undermining a coordinated national response to the disputes in the South China Sea.

” China is not engaging in all these media cooperation and development finance]projects ] in a vacuum. It’s happening alongside very visible disputes in the South China Sea”, Samantha Custer, director at AidData, told reporters following the release of their 51-page study in September.

” Less direct is the proliferation of online troll farms and other fake accounts that]Beijing ] can use to spread mis- or disinformation to foreign publics, along with partnerships with social media influencers”, the study argued.

In response, Philippine authorities are now urging changes to the country’s outdated espionage and treason laws to address growing threats and the increasingly hybrid nature of warfare in the twenty-first century.

The Philippines is also doubling down on intelligence-sharing with key allies, especially the US and Japan, to crack down on Chinese malign influence operations. High-stakes elections have for the first time in Philippine history been the result of intensified proxy wars between powerful countries supporting competing political dynasties.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian

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US makes clear Europe’s security isn’t a Trump priority – Asia Times

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Western defence ministers left their conference in Brussels on February 12 in horror after the new US secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, &nbsp, told them&nbsp, they may no longer depend on the US to ensure their security.

Hegseth stated that he was there” to express explicitly and unequivocally that the United States of America is not mainly focused on the protection of Europe.”

He even insisted that Western states provide the “overwhelming” share of money for Ukraine in the future. The US has been the largest recipient of Ukrainian military assistance, with US assistance, weapons, and financial aid essential in assisting Kyiv in thwarting the Russian war.

Hegseth’s responses are in keeping with the position of the US senator, Donald Trump, on the NATO intercontinental military empire. Trump has repeatedly urged its members to improve their defence spending because he believes NATO is a burden on the US financially.

But Hegseth’s notes may also be seen as a mark of America’s waning devotion to the conditions of Nato’s founding treaty. Article 5 of the 1949 agreement, signed by the US, Canada, and a number of western European countries, mandates that member states stand up for one another in the event of an military assault.

The US has the biggest army in NATO and the biggest hoard of nuclear weapons. But, on the face of it, attempts to resurrect the alliance appear to have caused a significant change in Europe’s security landscape following the cold war.

However, those who are familiar with the political climate surrounding NATO and the US’s role in protecting Europe may soon learn that this action follows in the footsteps of others who have fought hard to achieve since the Cold War.

Changing over time

NATO was put under enormous pressure to adapt to the new world attempt in 1991 as a result of the Soviet Union’s decline. Some in Washington were yet to be thinking about a rising China, but they were concerned that the US’s financial commitments to Western Europe during the Cold War would not remain.

Almost all Allied states were able to reduce their military spending at this time thanks to the so-called “peace income,” a popularized by former US president George H. W. Bush and past UK prime minister Margaret Thatcher.

The alliance actively participated in maintaining a no-fly area over Yugoslavia in 1992, almost as soon as Western Nato countries were reducing their forces and deploying specialist soldiers.

A novel Nato was becoming evident. It was changing from a social protection group to one of social security, where conflicts were fought within NATO’s borders.

A US fighter jet at an air base in Italy.
A US fighter aircraft at Aviano air center, Italy, after a goal over Bosnia to maintain the no-fly territory in 1993 Photo: Sgt. Janel Schroeder / Wikimedia Commons

This cooperative security agreement was effective up until 2001 when George W. Bush’s management entered the White House and engaged the US in wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Following the terrorist attacks of September 11 in the US, NATO resorted to Article 5 and went back to the process of social defense.

Some Western countries, including the new, smaller NATO says like Estonia and Latvia, sent soldiers to Iraq and Afghanistan. We need to be there when the US needs us so that they will be that when we need them, according to the consistent explanation I heard in the European state.

However, Barack Obama’s administration introduced a “pivot to Asia” in 2011 before the war in Iraq and Afghanistan were through. The US’s intention was to shift its focus away from China’s Western hemisphere mostly.

By this stage, China had become the second-largest economy in the world and was quickly developing its defense. Incredibly, the US changed its mind in German cities as a result of this policy change. They thought it was the US’s decision to decide that its own stability did not reside in Europe as it has since 1945.

Therefore, in 2014, Russia invaded Crimea and the Donbas in eastern Ukraine. The expansion to Asia appeared to have stopped. However, as US military installations were closed across Europe, US involvement and investment in Western defense remained stagnant. The second Trump presidency followed the pattern established by Obama.

President Joe Biden, who became president in 2021, used the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 to demonstrate to European officials that the US also saw its own stability in Europe and that it would support Ukraine.

However, the US remained persistent in urging Western nations to invest in their own defense. Over the past few years, the UK, Poland, and France have all pledged to raise their defence spending, but overall, the total cost of European NATO states has remained stagnant.

There has been a long-held conviction in the US that Europe is “freeriding” on British strength. This freeriding was permitted to continue while the US saw its personal safety in Europe.

However, as the US’s perspective has changed and the focus is now being put on thwarting China, it has been eager to suggest that European defense should significantly fall under the purview of Europe itself.

Nato won’t leave without a hitch. It is much more probable to vanish slowly with a whimper. After all, who did Trump match on his next morning in business? Never NATO but the Quad: an alliance between Australia, India, Japan and the US in the Indo-Pacific.

Professor of International Security at the University of Bath, David J. Galbreath

The Conversation has republished this essay under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Trump skeptical of calls for a complete DeepSeek ban – Asia Times

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The success of DeepSeek’s launch of a low-cost bot has sparked growing calling to outlaw Chinese AI tools in the United States, sprinkling the British IT community. This year, Virginia and New York announced their intention to outlaw DeepSeek on government-issued products. On January 31st, Texas made the identical announcement. &nbsp,

” China’s DeepSeek AI poses a menace to the security and safety of the members of the Commonwealth of Virginia”, said Glenn Youngkin, governor of Virginia. The Virginia state required express people who downloaded the DeepSeek software to eradicate it from government products by Wednesday.” We may continue to take steps to safeguard our functions and information from the Chinese Communist Party.” &nbsp,

According to some media outlets, DeepSeek could be subject to a perfect US restrictions, which would make it illegal for anyone in the US to access it, similar to what TikTok did on January 19th.

President Donald Trump, but, has indicated he sees DeepSeek’s development as more of an asset than a national security threat to the US. &nbsp,

” Over the past few weeks, I’ve been reading about China and some of the Chinese businesses, one of which is developing a much less expensive and faster AI approach, which is great because you don’t have to spend as much money,” he said on January 28. ” I view that as a good, as an asset”.

The launch of DeepSeek AI from a Chinese firm may serve as a wake-up contact for our industries because we need to get relentlessly focused on advancing because we have the best scientists in the world,” he continued. &nbsp,

” It’s a technology that’s happening. I think we’re going to gain. If it’s appropriate, what’s going on now is that the Artificial we’re talking about will be a bit less expensive than individuals initially thought. That’s a good thing. I view that as a very good growth, never a bad enhancement”, Trump told a reporter on February 8. &nbsp,

Trump stated in October that he preferred the US Congress to determine whether to implement TikTok in 2020. &nbsp,

” I said to Congress: It’s your determination. I’m not going to take any chords”, Trump explained. They made the decision not to make it. I did not worry if they made it or not that, to me, it was a flip of a coin. You have some actual First Amendment dilemmas”.

” Honestly, I think all a danger”, he said. ” There’s nothing that’s not a threat, but sometimes you have to fight through these threats”. He continued, noting that Google had treated him badly, but that he would never attempt to sever it or split it. &nbsp,

US lawmakers ‘ costs

On February 6, two US Representatives, Democrat Josh Gottheimer and Republican Darin LaHood, introduced the nonpartisan” No DeepSeek on Government Devices Act“, which may prevent federal employees from using DeepSeek on government-issued products. &nbsp,

The Chinese Communist Party has made it abundantly clear that it will use any means at its leisure to denigrate our national security, spread dangerous deception, and gather information about Americans, according to Gottheimer. We now have incredibly unsettling proof that they are using DeepSeek to spoof the sensitive information of US residents.

Wiz Research reported last month that it had found a DeepSeek database with interact history, underground keys, server details, and other sensitive data. &nbsp,

The Republican Senator Josh Hawley introduced a costs titled” Decoupling America’s Artificial Intelligence Capabilities from China Act of 2025,” which would outlaw the import and export of relational AI systems or intellectual property. He claimed a$ 1 million fine or a sentence to 20 years in prison should be the maximum punishment. &nbsp,

Some internet sources, however, claimed that Hawley wants anyone who downloaded DeepSeek to spend 20 years in prison. &nbsp,

Foreign students and employees should be aware of the potential legal hazard when using DeepSeek in the US, according to some Chinese critics. &nbsp,

‘ Information distillation’&nbsp,

It is no solution that DeepSeek used the “knowledge evaporation” process to teach its AI design.

In this method, DeepSeek can be understood as a student who keeps asking questions to a competent teacher, for instance ChatGPT, and uses the solutions to fine-tune its logic. At some point, DeepSeek will be as bright as ChatGPT. This procedure uses significantly less processing power than ChatGPT was trained by OpenAI. &nbsp,

The concept of using “knowledge distillation” was first suggested by Geoffrey Hinton, a British-Canadian computer scientist and cognitive psychologist known as the” Godfather of AI”, in a 2015 academic paper,” Distilling the Knowledge in a Neural Network” ,&nbsp,

He compared AI training to a caterpillar ( an original AI model ) consuming a lot of leaves ( data ) before turning into a pupa. However, it may be a butterfly ( a boiled version ) to sail away and partner. &nbsp,

According to some researchers, ChatGPT 4o is now a modified version of ChatGPT-4 Turbo, its predecessor. They claimed that DeepSeek’s surge could encourage competition and make OpenAI more capable of providing better services to users.

Antitrust conversations

In an essay published by the New York Times on February 4, Lina Khan, former head of the US Federal Trade Commission, claims that the US may continue to support the growth of the AI market. &nbsp, &nbsp,

” DeepSeek is the canary in the coal me,” the saying goes. It’s warning us that when there isn’t enough opposition, our technology sector grows susceptible to its Chinese competitors, threatening US political strength in the 21st century”, Khan says. &nbsp,

US tech giants may refresh their requests for the government to give them specific protections that would stifle markets and enshrine their authority in the upcoming weeks and months,” she says. ” Politicians and officials should be watchful.”

” The best way for the US to be away globally is by promoting opposition at home,” she continues.

However, IT blog Noah Smith says Khan misunderstood the US AI business, which is “incredibly economical”. He says that while emphasizing competitors, Khan simply wants the US to avoid using export controls to curb China’s Artificial business. He claims that Khan is making the case that the US may not impose trade controls to impede China’s AI industry.

He claims that Khan refutes herself by arguing both that she and Khan are.

  • Chinese AI firms with weaker rivals won’t be able to compete with US counterparts to increase, and that’s because of that.
  • this will ultimately result to China’s success in the world Artificial competition.

Howard Lutnick, the candidate for US Commerce Secretary, criticized DeepSeek for stealing US systems in a reading on January 29 without raising any issues with national security.

He promised to coordinate and give the Bureau of Industry and Security ( BIS )’s export controls and tariffs authority to stop China from using American tools to compete with the US. &nbsp,

After all, according to some observers, merely export controls and tariffs, no hypothetical discussions about national protection risks, can encourage foreign US companies and businesses to invest in the US.

The Asia Times has Yong Jian as a contribution. He is a Chinese blogger who specializes in Chinese technologies, economy and politics. &nbsp,

Read: To later, US Commerce candidate calls DeepSeek a systems’ thief’

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Asian immigrants, rejecting assimilation, created US ‘ethnoburb’ – Asia Times

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This article is adapted from UNASSIMILABLE: An Asian Diasporic Manifesto for the 21st Century by Bianca Mabute-Louie ( HarperCollins, January 2025 ).

San Gabriel Valley, also known as SGV or the 626, is where I grew away. SGV is an ethnoburb — an ethnic area — that grew out of the 1970s, with its own business and ecosystem that includes businesses, grocery stores, locks shops and restaurants.

Working together to create and defend this tribal ecosystem was a matter of success and necessity because some early Asian immigrants to this country were prohibited from accessing bright institutions.

Wei Li, a Taiwanese American explorer, first proposed the name “ethnoburb” to identify the hybridity of racial enclaves and middle-class suburbs: residential cultural clusters of people and businesses.

The ethnoburb demonstrates that we can make our own energy and belonging — without learning English, without participating in white corporations, and Americanizing. It is a social enterprise, one that requires everybody’s mind and attention.

The” Chinese Beverly Hills”

The ethnoburb immigrants redefined the whole suburbian environment and sparked an economic boom driven by foreign capital. Important factors contributed to the economic development of the Chinese in Monterey Park, a town in the San Gabriel Valley, along with the political and economic factors that led to the movement of powerful ethnic Chinese from Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Chinese immigrants used their resources to buy homes and launch businesses in the Chinese and Asian languages to welcome newcomers from Asia. Valley Boulevard, which runs through 10 locations in San Gabriel Valley, became household to Asian-owned malls, business plazas, business complexes, shops, hotels and commercial plants, generally with spanish banners in Chinese, Vietnamese and English.

Back in the day, when it was known as an Eastern United enclove, Monterey Park. Photo: KCET

Asian immigrants created rich Asian markets and neglected strip malls, forming a sense of permanence and community. Monterey Park, and eventually the rest of San Gabriel valley, began to be referred to as” Little Taipei” or the” Chinese Beverly Hills” by journalists and Chinese diasporic media.

By the 1980s, Monterey Park was known as” the first suburban Chinatown”, converting San Gabriel Valley from predominantly white suburbs into an Asian-majority ecosystem with a conspicuous and diverse first-generation, unassimilated immigrant presence.

By avoiding the cities ‘ Chinese, moving to the cities.

The ethnoburb is contrary to the notion that the suburbs are dynamic locations of social mobility and whiteness in America.

The majority of new refugees, particularly those with resources, chose to live in suburbs instead of urban racial enclaves like Chinatown, which were once used as immigration gateway cities.

According to Min Zhou, a professor of sociology and Asian British research at UCLA, the deliberate protection of cultural values, relationships, and institutions is what makes non-white immigrants to the US acclimate.

Zhou also contends that the traditional knowledge of immigration and assimilation is offended by the strong influx of new Asian immigrants into traditionally white suburbs. Ethnoburb newcomers were non-white, didn’t often talk English, made substantially less effort to acculturate into white, and many of them were previously educated and educated. They went beyond the scope of an immigrant’s mind in America.

Some ethnoburb immigrants even had broad and transnational social networks, which helped shape their resistance to acculturate, in addition to higher education and income levels. To realize the middle-class dream of financial stability, they didn’t want to study English or travel through the cultural enclave.

The ethnoburb was not a” conducting surface” for there better or white. The ethnoburb was the last desired target.

In reality, contrary to popular notions, the ethnoburb was no nonpartisan or isolated at all. It was and remains a page of resistance against the permitting, bright thoughts of sprawl. With the introduction of Monterey Park as an Eastern ethnoburb, concerns over group identity, geographic restrictions, and the figure of Monterey Park became politicized.

White hostility in an’ all-American’ city

First-generation immigrants were at the forefront of erecting boundaries of belonging, which were a priority for nativist white residents. Asian immigrants reshaped Monterey Park’s aesthetic and cultural identity in addition to changing the political landscape there. Traditional American perceptions of who immigrants are, the rules they must follow, and how they should act were hampered by this direct insertion of unassimilated Asian immigrants into traditionally white suburbs and its institutions.

A photograph from the 1980s of a professionally dressed woman sitting behind a desk flanked by the American flag and the flag of the state of California.
Lily Lee Chen’s official portrait as mayor of Monterey Park, California, 1983. The Huntington Library, Art Museum, and Botanical Gardens.

On Nov. 8, 1983, Lily Lee Chen, a first-generation immigrant from Taiwan, was inaugurated in Monterey Park as the first Chinese American mayor in the nation. Chen was relatable, charismatic, and not assimilated. Chen’s speech was “accented with pauses and grammatical errors, characteristic of someone speaking in their second language,” according to the Los Angeles Times.

In a different 1985 Times article, Chen claimed to enjoy dressing in bright reds and jade greens despite being told by her consultant that her attractiveness would make her appear “aggressive.” During her campaign, she was met with fierce resistance from white residents, who commonly took down her neighbourhood campaign signs.

In response, Chen worked tirelessly to increase voter engagement among Latinos and Asian Americans, including working with Cesar Chavez to support the Latinos in Southern California. He also published multilingual voter handbooks, registered voters, and developed relationships with ethnic groups.

The same year as Chen’s election, Monterey Park’s five-member city council became multiethnic, with two Mexican Americans, one Filipino American, one Chinese American, and one white council member.

White flight accelerated and resentment grew among the minority of white residents as Monterey Park gained media attention as it was called a” successful suburban melting pot” and even won an” All-American City” award in 1985 for its civic engagement and racial diversity.

Racial tension increased as a result of the large influx and growing influence of Chinese immigrants over a short period of time, as well as growing disputes over cultural differences, language barriers, and explicit mistrust of immigrants. Chinese businesses, political candidates, religious institutions, and entrepreneurs became racialized targets of nativist animus.

The proliferation of business signs in languages other than English sparked a particularly contentious conflict. The remaining white residents ‘ white council members of color were replaced by three well-established white residents in 1986 when white hostility among them led to the launch of an anti-immigrant” English-only” campaign against the proliferation of Chinese business signage.

Two people appear on stage. A young Asian-American women is in the foreground and to her right a man is holding the corners of his eyes to make them appear slanted, in a racist gesture.
A scene from a 2010 play by Annette Lee about the English-only movement from the 80s. Seventeen-year-old Scarlett Wong, an’ all-American teenager,’ struggles with her neighbors who don’t speak English.

The” English-only” movement in Monterey Park reflects the struggle to control the identity and narrative of a built environment. It demonstrates the conflict between ethnoburb immigrants ‘ ideas of assimilation and those who have instead built their own unassimilable institutions and communities.

Frank Arcuri, one of the Monterey Park residents and community activists who started the” English-only” petition campaign, insisted,” Immigrants are welcome here, but they must realize that English is the language we use in America…. They must be aware that they are having a negative effect on our city. They must change their behavior. They must respect our culture and speak our language.

The nativist, incendiary language Arcuri employs is as American as apple pie, making it comparable to the replacement theory being promoted by white nationalist conspiracists today.

The English-only conflict illustrates the deeper, ideological tensions behind an increasingly diverse and polyglot constituency, composed of politically active immigrants, and nostalgic white residents desperately ( and at times violently ) clinging on to institutional power and a homogeneous past.

Asian immigrants defied assimilation theories.

Traditionally, sociologists of immigration and assimilation theorists believed that all immigrant groups would eventually assimilate and integrate into white Protestant American institutions, culture, and society. They argued that doing so would serve the best interests of immigrants. They were also all white scholars. For the most part, what they theorized was true for European immigrants.

However, Asian immigrants in the ethnoburb remained proudly unassimilable and trans-national. While the ethnoburb was their final destination, they maintained diasporic ties. Many of the people who enjoyed socioeconomic status traveled to their home countries.

Not necessarily our assimilation into whiteness, but rather our diasporic connections to our motherlands and our ethnic communities are what contribute to our success in the United States.

Bianca Mabute-Louie is a sociology PhD candidate at Rice University.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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From chatbot to sexbot: lessons from Korea’s AI hate-speech fiasco – Asia Times

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The techniques of governing businesses and websites continue to raise ethical and legal issues as artificial intelligence technologies advance at rapid pace.

Many Canadians view proposed laws regulating AI offerings as assaults on free speech and excessive state control over software companies. This reaction has come from free speech activists, right-wing images and liberal thought officials.

However, these critics ought to pay attention to a heartbreaking North Korean circumstance that teaches crucial lessons about the dangers of AI that can be viewed from the perspective of the general public and the crucial need for customer data protection.

In late 2020, Iruda ( or” Lee Luda” ), an AI chatbot, quickly became a sensation in South Korea. Artificial bots are computer initiatives that simulate conversations with people. In this case, the bot was designed as a 21-year-old women school student with a cheerful personality. Marketed as an interesting” AI friend”, Iruda attracted more than 750, 000 people in under a month.

Iruda quickly turned into an ethics case investigation and a tool for addressing South Korea’s lack of data management. Soon, she began to use disturbing language and hold nasty views. The growing trend of online sexual harassment and discrimination was exacerbated and accelerated by the condition.

Making a discriminatory, cruel bot

The tech company that founded Iruda, Scatter Lab, had already created well-known apps that looked at text messages and offered dating advice. The company subsequently used data from those software to teach Iruda’s capabilities in intimate interactions. However, it failed to fully explain to customers how their private messages would be used to teach the robot.

Customers noticed Iruda repeating personal conversations straight from the company’s dating advice applications, which caused the issues. These reactions included curiously true names, credit card information and house names, leading to an investigation.

Additionally, the bot began to express cruel and unfair opinions. This occurred after some people purposefully” trained” it with harmful language, according to studies by internet retailers. On well-known online people’s boards, some consumers even wrote user manuals on how to create Iruda a” sex slave.” Thus, Iruda began answering customer causes with sexist, racist and gendered hate speech.

Poor old Iruda Image: Scatter Lab

This raised important questions about the operations of AI and it firms. Beyond just law and policy, the Iruda event raises questions for AI and it companies. In a wider perspective of North Korean virtual sexual harassment, what transpired with Iruda needs to be considered.

A design of online harassment

North Korean female researchers have documented how online platforms have evolved into staging areas for gender-based issues, with coordinated campaigns aimed at women who speak out on female issues. Social media amplifies these dynamics, creating what researcher in Korea calls “networked misogyny” ( networked misogyny ).

South Korea, home to the radical feminist 4B movement ( which stands for four types of refusal against men: no dating, marriage, sex or children ), provides an early example of the intensified gender-based conversations that are commonly seen online worldwide. According to journalist Hawon Jung, the corruption and abuse that Iruda exposed was the result of existing social conflicts and outdated legal frameworks that refused to address website sexism. Jung has written extensively about the decades-long battle to bring charges against those who use secret monitors and commit revenge video.

Beyond protection: The mortal cost

Of training, Iruda was just one event. Many other instances have been made that show how unchecked and inappropriately omitted applications like AI chatbots may become tools for harassment and abuse.

These include Microsoft’s Tay. ai in 2016, which was manipulated by users to post cruel and racist comments. More recently, a specialty bot on Character. AI was linked to a child’s murder.

Chatbots are uniquely positioned to remove incredibly private information from their customers, making them appear like likeable characters that feel more mortal as technology develops.

These endearing and cordial AI figures best illustrate what technology experts Neda Atanasoski and Kalindi Vora refer to as the rationale of” surrogate society,” in which AI systems are intended to replace human interaction but end up exacerbate existing social inequalities.

AI morals

In South Korea, Iruda’s shutdown sparked a national conversation about AI morals and data rights. The government responded by creating new AI guidelines and fining Scatter Lab 103 million won (US$71,000).

Chea Yun Jung and Kyun Kyong Joo, two Asian legal scholars, note that these procedures focused more on self-regulation in the technology sector than on more fundamental structural problems. The steps did not address how profound learning systems used by predatory adult users to spread gender-based rage and misogynist beliefs.

Unfortunately, looking at AI rules as a business issue is simply not enough. Feminist and community-based viewpoints are necessary for holding technology companies guilty because of the method these chatbots extract personal data and establish relationships with people users.

Scatter Lab has collaborated with experts to show the advantages of bots since this occurrence.

A more recent type of Iruda is displayed below. Image: Scatter Lab

In Canada, the proposed Artificial Intelligence and Data Act and Online Harms Act are still being shaped, and the limitations of what constitutes a “high-impact” Artificial system remain unknown.

American policymakers must find frameworks that both safeguard development and prevent systemic abuse from developers and vile users. This entails developing explicit rules for data consent, putting in place safeguards to prevent abuse, and putting together valuable accountability standards.

These aspects will only get more important as AI becomes more and more prevalent in daily life. The Iruda event demonstrates that when it comes to AI regulation, we must consider the very real people effects of these technologies in addition to professional specifications.

At the University of Toronto, Jul Parke is pursuing a PhD in advertising, systems, and lifestyle.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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When Trump talks to Putin about Ukraine – Asia Times

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The date of February 12, 2025, will forever be remembered as the day the NATO-Russian substitute war in Ukraine actually ended.

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth started everything off by&nbsp, declaring&nbsp, that: Ukraine didn’t visit NATO, the US doesn’t think that Ukraine is regain its pre-2014 borders, the US hasn’t deploy troops to the conflict zone, the US wants the Europeans to assume some peacekeeping responsibilities it otherwise, but the US didn’t extend Article 5 guarantees to Union forces there.

Donald Trump, US President Donald Trump, and Vladimir Putin, Russian President, spoke for the first time since the former took office. Trump called Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky to brief and likely coerce him as he allegedly promised Putin, and they agreed to start peace talks right away.

Trump also&nbsp, suggested&nbsp, that he’ll soon meet Putin in Saudi Arabia and that each of them might then visit each other’s countries as part of the peace process. Here are some briefings that cover the larger picture:

* January 3:” Creative Energy Diplomacy Can Lay The Basis For A Grand Russian-American Deal“

* January 17:” The Merits Of A Demilitarized’ Trans-Dnieper ‘ Region Controlled By Non-Western Peacekeepers”

* February 3:” Territorial Concessions Could Precede A Ceasefire That Will Lead To New Ukrainian Elections”

* February 4:” Trump’s Interest In Ukraine’s Rare Earth Minerals Might Backfire On Zelensky”

* February 7:” Trump’s Special Envoy Shed More Light On His Boss ‘ Ukrainian Peace Plan”

A dozen compromises are suggested for each side in the first analysis of creative energy diplomacy to advance their negotiations. In fact, the policy per Hegseth is that the US should not grant Article 5 guarantees to EU forces in Ukraine, so it’s possible that some others will follow.

Additionally, Trump just remarked about&nbsp, how unpopular Zelensky has become, which suggests that he’s planning the “phased leadership transition” via new elections as was also proposed in that piece.

Which of these additional suggestions might soon become US policy, with the same being said for the ones that Russia might put into practice, such as agreeing to a few restrictions on its side of the DMZ that will likely be put in place by the end of this process.

What are the five main issues that will affect the outcome of Russian-US peace talks with Ukraine’s leaders, diplomats, and any experts who might be invited to participate in the initiative through Track II talks:

* Territorial parameters

Where will the new Russian-Ukrainian border fall next, and that is the most urgent issue that needs to be resolved. Hegseth’s suggestion that Trump might coerce Zelensky into resuming its territorial conflict in Ukraine suggests that his forces might fall as far as Zaporizhzhia city as a result of his remarks about Ukraine’s inability to restore its pre-2014 border. It’s unlikely at this time that Russia would be able to control that city and the parts of its new western Dnieper.

That’s because Trump might not want to take the flak that would follow giving Russia a city of over 700, 000 whose residents didn’t vote in September 2022’s referendum. West of the river, in particular, are included in Russia’s new regions.

Instead, he might suggest a UN-supervised referendum to resolve this aspect of their territorial dispute once the fighting has stopped, while also allowing Russia to keep formally claiming those areas. That might be enough pragmatism for Putin to concur.

* DMZ terms &amp, peacekeeper roles

The DMZ’s terms and the role of the peacekeepers who would likely be deployed there after this are the next two issues to be addressed.

Hegseth’s claim that the US won’t grant Article 5 guarantees to EU forces could deter them from playing a significant role, which would require the UNSC resolution to approve, in any case, per Permanent Representative Vasily Nebenzia, because they’ll be legitimate targets. Non-Western ones are thus much more agreeable.

As it turns out, the majority of UN peacekeepers are from non-Western nations, so they could potentially be deployed there under a UN Security Council mandate, according to Nebenzia’s suggestion, and possibly even lead to the total exclusion of any Western peacekeepers if it’s decided that none will contribute to this mission.

It’s unclear exactly what they will be able to or not do, but that directly leads to the next issue because their terms would have to be acceptable to both Russia and the US for this resolution to pass.

* Demilitarization &amp, denazification

Two of Russia’s main goals in its&nbsp,” special&nbsp, operation” &nbsp, are to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, which it initially sought to do by militarily coercing Ukraine into this per the terms established in&nbsp, spring 2022’s draft peace treaty, though that didn’t succeed due to the UK&nbsp, and Poland.

It’s unthinkable to think that Trump will permit Russia to deploy its armed forces throughout the entirety of Ukraine in order to accomplish this, since it can only be accomplished through similar diplomatic means involving Kyiv’s consent.

UN peacekeepers might have a role to play in monitoring and putting into action any final agreements made to demilitarize and denounce Ukraine. This could include inspecting suspected illegal arms sites and all of Ukraine’s cross-border traffic ( including at its ports ), as well as having the authority to require changes to its media coverage and curriculum.

After the conflict is over, Ukraine will only be able to remain demilitarized and denazified in this way.

* Sanctions relief

Russia has repeatedly demanded the lifting of all Western sanctions, but the argument can be made that “deal-master” Trump wouldn’t ever agree to do this all at once, instead preferring to draft a plan for phased sanctions relief as a reward for Russia’s compliance with a ceasefire, armistice or peace treaty.

This might take the form of the suggestion that some Russian exports to the EU could resume in the first phase as a trust-building measure.

Russia’s policymakers might decide that a phased plan is preferable to accept if that’s all Trump is comfortable offering rather than nothing at all, even though Russia would prefer that they all be immediately lifted.

Trump would do well, though, to engage in the goodwill gesture of lifting sanctions on Russia’s oil exports by sea, too, since that could convince Moscow’s policymakers that he’s serious about relieving pressure on Russia. Putin would be able to sell the deal on phased sanctions relief at home in part because of this.

* New security architecture

According to the security guarantee requests it shared with them at the time, Russia considered drafting a new European security architecture through bilateral agreements with the US and NATO in December 2021.

In retrospect, these were intended to diplomatically address their security difficulty, which was fueled by NATO’s continued expansion eastward following the Old Cold War, particularly its clandestine expansion into Ukraine, in place of the special operation that Putin had secretly planned when that failed.

Since that time, separate, comprehensive discussions on this must begin right after any agreement they reach on Ukraine. The new issues include NATO’s eastern military buildup, Finland and Sweden’s new memberships, Russia’s hypersonic&nbsp, Oreshniks, their&nbsp, deployment to Belarus, Russia ‘s&nbsp, deployment of nukes there too, the&nbsp, future of the New START&nbsp, that expires next year and the&nbsp, new space arms race, et al. Agreeing on a new security architecture will, therefore, stabilize the world.

The path to success will undoubtedly be very difficult because Russia and the US must resolve some contentious issues, but their leaders have shown that they are willing to negotiate in good faith.

Given the circumstances, neither side is likely to accomplish their full goals, but diplomacy is the art of the possible, and each will do everything in their power to accomplish this goal. In the best case scenario, there will be a just and lasting solution that will truly address the root causes at the heart of the conflict.

This&nbsp, article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber&nbsp, here.

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Japan goes for broke with trillion Trump bet – Asia Times

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In an effort to prevent slowing China’s expansion and recession, Japan Inc.’s foreign direct investment in the US reached a record substantial of US$ 77.3 billion in 2024.

However, as Japan tries to protect itself from an even bigger financial string, Donald Trump’s business battle wrath as the US senator makes Asia the first stop on his tax punishment journey, America hasn’t seen anything yet.

Shigeru Ishiba, the prime minister of Japan, announced last week that his country would invest about$ 1 trillion in the US from$ 783 billion at the start of 2024.

To set that titanically huge number in view, it’s almost the same amount of Tokyo’s US Treasury security assets. And it raises a clear question: Does Japan Inc. truly believe the US market is a purchase, or are CEOs handing over the business equivalent of ransom money in hopes that Trump’s 2.0 president doesn’t devastate them?

Chances are, it’s far more the latter than the previous. Japan is right in the middle of the collateral damage territory, despite the fact that Trump’s tax arms race is primarily focused on China. And Ishiba’s Oval Office attend on February 7 served as a reminder of the dangers of trusting” Trumponomics”.

As Ishiba flew up from Washington, he claimed to have a “deal” with Trump on Nippon Steel’s effort to acquire US Steel. Team Ishiba purchased the business in exchange for a share of the classic American firm, giving them exclusive ownership of the business. Now, that assumption seems more roll than fact.

Trump basically made the teasing of the Nippon-US Steel deal seem linguistic rather than concrete when he was seated next to Ishiba in the White House. Nippon, he said, is “going to do a great investment. I didn’t want]US Steel ] purchased, but investment I love. I’m fine with it, positive”.

Nevertheless, Ishiba’s nation seems okay with a 22 % increase in Japan’s 2023-level bet on the US. Chinese companies are eying opportunities in sectors including semiconductors, unnatural intelligence, autos and vehicles products, liquefied natural gas, chemicals, manufacturing-related research and development, system, funding and others.

Despite Trump 2.0 throwing a wrecking ball at the economic scaffolding that keep it on the street, it does so. Trump’s policies may have a negative impact on America’s credit rating because of how he wants to lower taxes, abuse the rule of law, and obstruct the US Federal Reserve’s democracy.

Elon Musk and his group of it bros, who are Tesla billionaires, may also reduce confidence in US assets by allowing them to demolish government structures and entry sensitive data. Especially after learning that Musk and his supporters had access to the federal payments program, Scott Bessent, the novel Treasury Secretary, was reportedly viewed as a moderating power in MAGA Land.

In a new New York Times op-ed, five former Treasury leaders raised” large cause for concern” that Washington’s economic agreements and procedures may be “unlawfully” undermined. Any tinge of the selective expulsion of congressionally authorized payments may constitute a breach of trust and, in the end, a default. And our trust, once lost, may prove hard to regain”, they argued.

Bottom line:” No Treasury Secretary in their first weeks in office should be put in the position where it is necessary to reassure the nation and the world of our payment system or our commitment to make good on our financial obligations,” Bessent’s predecessors warn.

For today, Ishiba’s government is focused on the good. In his efforts to protect Japan from Trump’s taxes, Ishiba stressed that his nation is already the nation’s biggest US trader. Not just in US Treasuries, but also the biggest investment in corporate America for five decades.

” Japan is the closest financial partner of the United States”, Ishiba said. Toyota and Isuzu, two of Japan’s biggest automakers, are making ambitious plans for fresh US manufacturer construction, according to Ishiba. Additionally, he promised a significant increase in LNG payments.

All of this is in line with SoftBank’s incredible funding strategies for the US. Over the next four years, CEO Masayoshi Son says he’ll invest at least$ 100 billion into the US. Many of these opportunities will be synthetic intelligence-related, winning pursuit with a White House good to have the approach of China’s DeepSeek AI business.

But the measurement that most hobbies Trump is Tokyo’s trade deficit. Trump pressed Japan to close its$ 100 billion trade pact with Washington last week when the US leader sat down with Ishiba.

As last year’s tete-a-tete wrapped away, Trump told investigators he’d be prepared to smack tariffs on Tokyo if the deficit isn’t reversed. Team Trump makes hints as to add a punctuation to the point that the US currently enjoys a trade deficit with Australia, which will be subject to recently imposed 25 % metal tariffs.

The Liberal Democratic Party’s deficit continues to be a significant issue. A weak yen has been the ruling LDP’s most steady economic plan over the past 25 years, making Asian returns mostly export-driven affairs.

Enter Trump, whose administration is already objecting to Japan’s underwhelming imports.

Given the economic risks, Ishiba’s$ 1 trillion pledge sounds more like an insurance against high tariffs than assurance that the US will be a welcome investment destination once Trump 2.0 leaves in 2029.

” While Japan may not avoid all the effects of future US tariff policies, Tokyo may avoid the targeted treatment seen with countries like Canada, Mexico, and China”, James Brady, vice president of Teneo, said in a Saturday note.

Because it appears to enjoy the status of one of Trump’s most favored nations, it may even hope for more lenient trade treatment than other major economies.

The Bank of Japan is tightening its grip on inflation, much of it caused by a weak exchange rate, thining the plot. Unsettling both households and businesses are the highest short-term rates in 17 years.

The rising cost of borrowing is also having a chilling impact on business sentiment. That might undermine government efforts to accelerate wage growth. Or, at the very least, ensure that wage gains keep pace with the rate of inflation.

All of this leaves Japan with a number of already-existing issues that will affect the upcoming Trumpian storm. Retail sales are soft even before Trump’s broader trade war arrives. And the 10 % levies Trump&nbsp, has slapped on China so far could be but a taste of what’s to come.

Had Ishiba’s party acted urgently to reduce bureaucracy, incentivize a startup boom, modernize labor markets, empower women or increase productivity, Japan might be less vulnerable to Trump’s trade war.

Tokyo is beginning to realize that 25 plus years of zero rates have turned out badly because of this last obstacle. The real monetary fireworks started in 2013, despite the BOJ’s experimentation with zero rates dating back to 1999.

The government urged the BOJ to launch its quantitative easing experiment in a different direction that year. Through exchange-traded funds, the BOJ actively hoarded government bonds and stocks. By 2018, &nbsp, the&nbsp, BOJ’s balance sheet&nbsp, topped&nbsp, the&nbsp, size of Japan’s annual gross domestic product ( GDP ).

Trouble is, the resulting plunge in&nbsp, the&nbsp, yen &nbsp, is now coming back to haunt Tokyo.

” A weaker yen means it takes more yen to buy the same amount of food or oil as before”, says Richard&nbsp, Katz, author of” The Contest for Japan’s Economic Future”. Imported inflation, according to the report, “has caused political pressure to try to stop the yen from weakening even more” ( poena ).

It also deadened&nbsp, the&nbsp, urgency&nbsp, for lawmakers to level playing fields and increase competitiveness. It took pressure off corporate CEOs to innovate, restructure, disrupt and boost productivity.

The International Monetary Fund claims that Japan’s economy’s overall factor productivity growth has been sluggish for ten years and has fallen even further behind the United States in its most recent assessment of the country. Productivity has been hampered by a steady decline in allocative efficiency since the early 2000s, which most likely reflects an increase in market frictions.

What’s more, the IMF notes,” Japan’s ultra-low interest rates may have allowed low-productivity firms to survive longer than they otherwise would have, delaying necessary economic restructuring. Improved labor mobility across companies would improve Japan’s overall efficiency and productivity.

However, it’s unclear how much political capital Ishiba has to reinvigorate the reform process with his&nbsp, approval ratings in the 30s. Or, to convince Trump he’s a worthy sparring partner.

” Ishiba’s weak political standing may also be a liability, as Trump tends to respect strong leaders”, says David Boling, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy.

Boling notes that Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister from 2012 to 2020, “enjoyed comfortable majorities in the national parliament when he was prime minister, so he could negotiate with Trump from a position of political strength, but&nbsp, Ishiba&nbsp, does not enjoy that luxury”.

As Japan’s economy runs into fresh headwinds, accelerating the structural upgrade process will become more and more important.

Not surprisingly, Ishiba’s Trade Minister Yoji Muto is lobbying Trump World for a pass on Washington’s 25 % taxes on steel and aluminum. Yet Tokyo’s real challenge may be getting past Trump’s trade advisors, led by anti-globalization activist Peter Navarro.

Navarro contends that the US aluminum market is being harmed by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s economy, despite Trump’s hints that Australia might be granted a waiver. ” Australia is just killing our aluminum market”, Navarro told CNN. ” President Trump says no, no, we’re not, we’re not doing that anymore”.

All this uncertainty could leave Japan Inc&nbsp, pledging big US-based investments with buyers ‘ remorse. The consumer price index increased by 0.5 %, increasing the annual inflation rate by 3 %, as US inflation increased once more in January.

” This is not a good number”, says economist Brian Coulton at Fitch Ratings. It shows how the Federal Reserve is still working to reduce inflation as new risks from tariff increases and labor supply growth squeeze new levels emerge.

It will undoubtedly make hopes that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2025 more difficult. In fact, it supports the claim that the Fed is more likely to tighten than relax next.

This makes things even more disorienting in corporate boardrooms in Tokyo and New York. Japanese leaders might have more trouble making good on US investment pledges as the year progresses and economic trajectories turn sour.

Case in point: Son’s SoftBank swinging to a surprising$ 2.4 billion loss in the October-December quarter as its Vision Fund investment went awry. It prompted fresh concerns about Son’s ability to fulfill his commitments to invest$ 500 billion in the Stargate AI project, which Trump announced last month at a glittering White House event.

The news led Fitch company CreditSights to downgrade SoftBank’s US dollar and Eurobonds to “underperform” from “market perform”. As CreditSights analyst Mary Pollock puts it,” we think there’s more scope for downside, as]SoftBank Group ] is clearly willing and able to ramp investment” by resorting to project finance funding strategies.

For now, Ishiba’s economy has a decent US investment story to sell Trump. Toyota Tsusho, a division of Toyota Motor, is building a roughly$ 14 billion battery factory in North Carolina that could start shipping in April. Honda Motor plans to start producing electric vehicles in the US soon and is investing$ 1 billion in upgrading its Ohio production facility.

Resonac Holdings, a Japanese materials maker, is eyeing land in Silicon Valley to assemble cutting-edge chips. This year, Sumitomo Chemical will start a mass production facility in Texas to put itself at the forefront of the newly revitalized US chipmaking supply chains.

Nissin Foods Holdings, the world’s largest instant ramen company, will open its first new US factory in almost 50 years in August. By the end of the year, soybean-soy sauce snob Kikkoman plans to begin shipping from Wisconsin.

And so on, and so on. The question, of course, is whether the macroeconomic trajectory of the US can stay on the rails these next four years. Markets might not cooperate as Trump and Musk upend government agencies and cause chaos.

A US national debt of up to$ 36 trillion is at a time when Trump threatens to veer off the Fed’s mandate, slack the dollar, and impose a wave of tariffs that the world’s financial system might not anticipate.

Japan Inc. can run, hide and try to limit the fallout. But no Asian economy, friend or foe, can likely escape the Trump 2.0 onslaught on free trade to come.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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The silver linings in Trump’s trade war storm clouds – Asia Times

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Trade colleagues including China, Canada, Mexico, and the US fast experienced waves of punitive measures as a result of US taxes, both threatened and imposed. The latest commodities in the sights of President Donald Trump are steel and aluminum – with&nbsp, tariffs of 25 % &nbsp, announced for all imports.

But not only do these fees destroy well-established trade flows, they ignite problems over the very prospect of modernization.

But amid this doubt, it’s possible that there may be a silver lining. Trump may unintentionally become opening the door for the creation of new financial blocs and a restructuring of trade relationships. These assistance opportunities could lead to stronger, locally focused economic assistance.

The underlying principles of the weight type of trade are undermined by Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on its main trading partners. This theory claims that trade between two countries is generally affected by their financial size and proximity.

For example, introducing tariffs to the US and Canada’s near economic relationship, which is supported by their shared border, essentially reduces bilateral trade in terms of costs and volume.

However, these problems can unwittingly encourage the growth of business relationships. Companies and governments may begin looking for new markets and other supply chains as they try to reduce the risks posed by tariffs. This could eventually result in a more distributed and, possibly, more secure global trade system.

However, as Trump continues to exercise his legal authority, he is beginning to realize that it is not always so simple to defy weight. Now, the president has dialed down levies on Canada and Mexico, while China has struck again with punitive actions.

The consolidation of local partnerships might be a positive outcome of the trade war. Nations are increasingly encouraged to develop relationships with surrounding economy as traditional business moves are disrupted.

North American view

The US has much viewed Canada and Mexico as their normal trading partners, and they may cooperate to expand their economic cooperation. They might even look into pursuing new industry, strengthening ties with China and Japan, and pursuing bilateral treaties with other partners.

The USMCA ( United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement ) provides a strong foundation for trade. However, attempts to break up this arrangement was cause Canada and Mexico to accelerate efforts to consolidate economic ties with different regions, lowering their exposure to the US market.

YouTube video

]embedded articles]

Trump makes his ideas for imposing massive metal tariffs on “everyone.”

Trump’s proposed steel tariffs have the potential to destroy the USMCA.

After all, it is intended to promote low-tariff economic assistance among the three nations and integrated supply stores. This is likely to worsen trade tensions across the bloc, causing the vital terms of the trade agreement to be revised, and destabilizing existing relationships.

The EU’s taxes may encourage more regional integration, according to the EU’s member states. The EU may expand initiatives aimed at harmonising regulations, promoting intra-European supply chains, and responding to new pressures from the US.

Member state, with France at the forefront, are now advocating for a united reaction to counter US protectionism. They want to show that they are willing to put pressure on Trump with a powerful political will.

China, as the world’s second-largest business behind the US, may get to increase its business associations in the Asia-Pacific area and above. As China’s economic development model is export-led, it does get stronger partnerships with local players and invest in new business contracts. This might lead to an even more diverse Eastern financial area.

A fresh economic get

Whatever else occurs, these price war indicate a reorganization of the world’s economy. For disruptions, though terrible in the short term, can produce long-term changes that rebalance financial systems.

The normal trading partner assumption confirms this view by highlighting how nations with similar cultural, historical, and geographic relationships are more likely to enhance their economic relations in the face of external surprises.

Tables of US business

table showing Canada and Mexico as biggest importers into US
Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis ( 2025 ) Author provided

Traditional powers may find themselves battling off consolidated responses from other countries in this new world order. By imposing taxes, the US runs the risk of isolating itself from these emerging alliances, and its main trading partners may come together to try to counteract rising American protectionism.

The impact of the US price dispute has important implications for global trade networks, going beyond the countries that are directly affected. For the UK, currently coping with the aftermath of Brexit, this new culture offers both problems and opportunities.

The UK could profit from the disruption of US-led isolationism by forging stronger relationships with the Union and looking deeper into its Commonwealth relationships.

It may strengthen its standing as a gateway for global trade while preserving its partnership with the US. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and managing Trump are expected to be in business for four times, so it is a delicate balancing act.

A word of caution: the negotiation of international trade agreements takes time and effort. The UK has learned a valuable lessons from this. Its trade with the EU ( its most important commercial partner ) shrank after Brexit, driving the quest for new trading partners and agreements. But these crops are slower to occur.

The UK signed the accession process in July 2023, but the country officially requested it in February of that year.

And remember that after two years of negotiations, the UK and Canada stopped their trade talks in 2024 because there were differences over the requirements for some agricultural goods.

Levies come with difficulties, but they could also represent the start of a gradual, painful transition toward a more healthy and strong international economic order.

Scott Mahadeo is senior teacher in Macroeconomics, University of Portsmouth, Gabriella Legrenzi is senior lecturer in finance, Keele University, and Reinhold Heinlein is senior lecturer in finance, University of the West of England

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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