The US-Japan security alliance Is growing more integrated – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Last year, Shigeru Ishiba was elected by the Chinese legislature as the country’s second head of government. One of the areas where modifications are likely to occur is where the new prime minister’s great experience in national safety is most well-known.

An academic and experienced legislator, the 67-year-old Ishiba has held a number of state posts, including two tours as the best defence official in the first decade of this century. More important, he has consistently been outspoken about possible changes in the post-war local security structure.

Ishiba laid out his opinions on pressing security issues immediately before his visit and how the country may expand its cooperation with its closest ally, the United States.

Ishiba argued in an essay published by the US-based Hudson Institute that an Asiatic military alliance should be established in an manner similar to NATO. Because there is no requirement for mutual protection, he argued,” Wars are likely to break out because the lack of a shared self-defense program like NATO in Asia.”

Ishiba argued for a more even balance between Japan and the US’s security relationship, which he believes will help to strengthen the relationship between the two nations. This may include putting Chinese Self-Defense Force personnel at US bases and managing American bases there as well.

Security experts are included in Ishiba’s newly formed government as more evidence that Japan’s new prime minister prioritizes defense.

enhancing defense relations with the US

Although Ishiba’s language suggests that Japan may be less reliant on Washington under his management, it is obvious that the United States will continue to be its most important ally abroad. Ishiba’s initial action after taking office was, ironically, having a phone call with US President Joe Biden.

Ishiba assured his American rival of his intent to strengthen the relationship between the two countries, which had already been significantly strengthened during his father Kishida’s rule.

However, the US-Japan ally has come a long way since the United States ‘ Mutual Security Treaty of 1951, which made it possible for the British government to remain in the South Eastern nation. Eventually, the report was revised to permit the United States to station troops in Japan in exchange for Washington’s commitment to protect the country from any armed attacks.

Tokyo has just recently made a significant increase in its commitment to the empire.

Kunihiko Miyake, a visiting professor at Kyoto’s Ritsumeikan University, said,” The process started when Mr. Shinzo Abe became prime minister for the next day in 2012.”

Abe “decided to alter our national security plan and alter the constitution’s view,” the expert told the author. ” This is a pretty significant change of legal understanding of Article Nine, although, even with that view, our right to social self-defense is also limited. Never a full-fledged one like a NATO sort of collective security responsibility”, Miyake added.

” But that was a tremendous leap”, he stressed. ” And then Mr Abe revised the significant, what we call, three national security-related files. We made changes to them so that we could launch strikes to protect our nation. Furthermore, we decided to set up joint office inside the Chinese Self-Defense Forces. Additionally, the United States will create a command center in Tokyo on its own to facilitate faster combat together than ever before.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III announced that US Forces Japan had been upgraded to a combined force office while gaining more obligations following high-level conferences held in Tokyo in July. Calling it a “historic choice”, the American national stressed that the shift was among” the strongest changes” in the states ‘ military collaboration in 70 years.

emerging as a local military force

These measures, mainly the development of command and control, mean that the US-Japan empire is growing more included.

The ability to demonstrate to our relatives that we can fight along with Americans to hinder any contingencies in our town is what is most important, not the language or spirit, Miyake said. ” South Koreans are completely aware of that now, and we have improved our connection with them thanks to the US leader. A bilateral conference held in Camp David last year was largely successful.

Then that Japan’s role in global surveillance is rising, Tokyo is ramping up the country’s defence budget.

” We have made the decision to increase the amount of defense spending that was previously around 1 % of GDP to 2 %. All in all, the method has already begun. It takes time – often, five to 10 decades– but it is really important that we have started doing it”, the professional added.

The Defense Ministry of Japan requested a report amount of practically$ 60 billion for the fiscal year 2025 next month. With the use of these resources, the state, among other things, will be able to boost Japan’s disagreement arms features, set up a cluster of threat-detection satellites, and create Aegis-equipped vessels. Given the potential weapon risk emanating from North Korea, the development of the latter is especially crucial.

However, cooperation with the US causes is a crucial element of Japan’s protection strategy.

” In current battle, there are six regions”, Miyake noted. ” In addition to atmosphere, ground and water, we have digital, space and electromagnetic types. And I may include one more – information war. In those seven regions, we have to improve our cooperation. Moreover, we should be able to do activities, combining all the six site war fighting capabilities. Additionally, we ought to be able to coordinate and connect all the data with US forces.

” This has already started between the navies, the air force is getting better. Then there are space and cyber. Although there is still a long way to go, Miyake remarked that we should work with Americans in each of those seven areas to stop any kind of aggression.

Continue Reading

Instead of banning the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, engage it – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement ( PTM) has been labeled a “proscribed organization” that threatens the country’s peace and security in Pakistan’s most recent notification.

This is completely absurd and conflicts with fundamental human rights. Ironic to criticize a quiet activity and rub it with the dust of Pakistan’s inability to guarantee security and peace. No unlawful action has ever threatened Pakistan’s unstable security, according to the movement. The state of Pakistan’s problems are only strengthened by banning the PTM.

Three people were killed and more than a hundred were seriously injured when the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Police opened fire on the Pashtun Qami Adalat/Pashtun National Jirga Camp, which was convened by the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement in Khyber area. It clearly accentuates&nbsp, a shocking practice of persecuting relaxing privileges activists in the country.

The absurd invasion on Jirga– which is indicative of Pashtunwali, the Pashtun people’s code of honor, values, and customs – and on the group’s long-practiced tradition of shared deliberation has provoked more denunciation from among the Pashtun rights activists as well as the social leadership. &nbsp,

The Pashtun Jirga Camps officers raid exposes a significant disconnect between the Pashtun community and the state government. Use of the power of the state against rebels highlights a flagrant violation of political principles and tyranny. &nbsp,

In a position where government is grappling with a deteriorated market, political instability, prevalent insecurity and Baloch violence, suppressing the PTM will contribute more to panic and disappointment. &nbsp,

Led by&nbsp, university graduate&nbsp, Manzoor Pashteen, the PTM undoubtedly has emerged as the” Pashtun Zeitgeist” for advocating long-silenced Pashtun voices. &nbsp, More than 90 % of Pashtun students support the movement for peace and security of Pashtuns, who have endured the disaster of violence, bomb blasts and crime.

The urgent need for a room where Pashtun voices are heard and taken into account is embodied in Manzoor Pashteen’s call to hold a royal Pashtun nationwide Jirga council on security and peace on October 11th. &nbsp,

The motion, since its introduction in January 2018 following the extra-judicial dying of Naqeeb Mehsood, &nbsp, has &nbsp, monumentally galvanized Pashtun social consciousness against the borrowing and Talibanization of the Pashtun&nbsp, buckle.

The group’s charter makes five requirements:

  • ending extra-judicial murders,
  • establishing a commission to investigate and reconcile missing people,
  • de-mining cultural locations,
  • cessation&nbsp, of&nbsp, Pashtun monitoring at safety check-posts, and
  • punishing former police officer in Karachi, Rao Anwar.

These serve as a legitimate argument for repressing right and justice within the purview of the Pakistani Constitution. &nbsp,

Thus far, the condition authorities have never considered these demands, which are not extreme. Nor do they issue the&nbsp, control of the law. Otherwise, prominent PTM figures like Manzoor Pashteen, Ali Wazir, and others have been detained and imprisoned numerous times. This sort of plan adds fuel to concerns that had distance Pashtun junior from&nbsp, the&nbsp, state. &nbsp,

Pakistan is already in a state of chaos and uncertainty. Cultural problems, social fanaticism, religious extremism and political instability have trapped the land in a grip. In such situations, persecuting Pashtun children will take nothing but doubt at the federal level, leading to a debacle. &nbsp,

Interestingly, in the current&nbsp, socially frenzied&nbsp, position, &nbsp, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government&nbsp, may also utilize Pashtun sentiments for political gains in its discord with the federal government, by denying the raid and blaming the federal government for attacking and burning the camps of Pashtun National Jirga.

In either case, the KP government is responsible for the planned assault. Under the 18th&nbsp, constitutional amendment, the police fall under the jurisdiction of the provincial government. &nbsp, The KP government’s denial of responsibility for the raid is a futile excuse.

The authorities must acknowledge that the PTM’s violent assaults and myopic actions constitute grave errors that can never, be, or serve the state’s best interest. The complex tapestry of crisis and alienation of a significant segment of the population on political and security grounds will&nbsp, obviously&nbsp, strengthen the anti-state narrative among Pashtun youth, &nbsp, cementing their sense of marginalization. &nbsp,

The Pashtun belt has &nbsp, faced bitter experiences&nbsp, of&nbsp, terrorism, &nbsp, destruction and military operations. In a conflict that was n’t ours, tribal Pashtuns were forced to flee to other countries. PTM workers ‘ persecution and detention would undermine the country’s cohesion. &nbsp,

The PTM is a blessing in disguise. The movement presents an opportunity for the state to engage Pashtuns, recalibrate the national narrative&nbsp, and&nbsp, embrace&nbsp, a transformative effort to&nbsp, achieve engagement and inclusivity. &nbsp,

For the Pashtuns to gain their trust and advance peace and stability, PTM and Manzoor Pashteen must engage in empowered negotiations. &nbsp, PTM’s demands are legitimate and&nbsp, in accordance with the constitution. &nbsp, These demands must be seriously considered. And prioritizing human rights, political participation, and the rule of law would &nbsp, bolster a sense of patriotism&nbsp, among them.

A&nbsp, straightforward step should be taken&nbsp, to end viewing the Pashtun belt from a security perspective. Instead, the federal government must focus on infrastructure development and equal distribution of rights to ensure Pakistan ‘s&nbsp, journey toward&nbsp, ethnic and national integrity.

Continue Reading

China’s stock market valuations settle into a reasonable range – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Subscribe now&nbsp, for access at a special price of only$ 99/year.

China’s stock market prices range in the direction of a fair variety.

According to David Goldman, Western investors who had anticipated a significant boost from China were disappointed because the National Development and Reform Commission placed more emphasis on long-term proper economic objectives than on immediate solutions.

The Middle East battle that was n’t

David Goldman contends that conflicts persist despite global consensus on avoiding a wider Middle East conflict. China recently acknowledged Israel’s safety issues, and it is likely to target Iran’s missile-producing features rather than its oil or nuclear services.

Examining SPD Gen-Sec Miersch’s peace-oriented Ukraine location

Diego Faßnacht reports that following the democratic revolution in East Germany, Matthias Miersch, a peace-oriented SPD legislator, has taken over the position of General Secretary, signaling a move within the group toward politics in the Ukraine issue.

Fighting a lost fight, Kiev considers its possibilities

According to James Davis, as President Zelensky presses for more long-range missiles and support, Russian forces have been powerful on numerous front lines in Ukraine as they go through a series of unsuccessful efforts to acquiesce.

South Korea ways up participation with the Philippines

According to Scott Foster, South Korea and the Philippines have” corporate partnerships,” with the Philippines veering away from China under President Duterte and reuniting with both South Korea and Japan under Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Continue Reading

Vietnam imitating China’s island-making in South China Sea – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Vietnam has slowly increased its military presence in the South China Sea, putting its territorial claims in line with China’s island-building strategies in the hotly contested sea area.

The disputed Spratly Islands have recently experienced high-resolution satellite imagery that shows a tenfold increase in artificial land in the area over the past three years, according to the&nbsp, Wall Street Journal ( WSJ).

The WSJ report mentions the potential growth of Vietnam through the development of planes, protective tunnels, and holds for martial use. It points out that Vietnam’s actions are in line with China’s, which has recently constructed artificial islands with runways, study towers, and other military installations to assert its position of dominance in the area.

WSJ notes that while China has violently enforced its statements against the Philippines, it has not yet responded to Vietnam’s actions.

The&nbsp, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative ( AMTI ) noted in June 2024 that since November 2023, Vietnam has added 692 new acres across ten features, bringing its total dredging and landfill in the South China Sea to approximately 2, 360 acres – about half of China’s 4, 650 acres. This sudden expansion, according to AMTI, is a major improvement over the previous three years when Vietnam’s full was only 329 acres.

In a statement from September 2024, John Pollock and Damien Symon claim that Vietnam’s actions are motivated by a needed to strengthen its proper place in the wake of continuous territorial disputes with China and other plaintiff states.

Pollock and Damien stage out that Vietnam’s expanded troops could number long-range martial aircraft, indicating a distinct military purpose. They mention that China has remained somewhat silent on Vietnam’s present reclamation activities, perhaps due to intellectual alignments with the latter’s fresh leadership.

They even say that China’s proper solitude over Vietnam’s restoration activities may reveal Beijing’s focus on its conflict with the Philippines over the&nbsp, Next Thomas Shoal.

In a December 2023 report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS), Monica Sato and other authors mention that cutter suction dredging involves slicing into coral reefs and pumping sediment to create landfills.

Sato and others point out that the technique, used extensively by China since 2013 to create synthetic islands, devastates the bottom, creating material clouds that strangle marine life and inhibit coral regeneration. They mention that unlike conventional polycarbonate dredgers, which cause less collateral damage, cutting pressure dredgers inflict widespread death, removing vital coral structures&nbsp, and&nbsp, altering the marine ecosystem.

Vietnam’s defense buildup significantly raises the stakes in its territorial disputes with China in addition to its accelerated area restoration in the South China Sea.

In a January 2018 essay in the peer-reviewed Asia Policy book, Derek Grossman said Vietnam has focused on modernizing its defense, especially its naval and air troops, to deter China from more intruding on its territory.

He says that Vietnam’s defense acquisitions, such as Russian Kilo-class submarines and Su-30MK2 fighter jets, alongside a system of anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles, improve Vietnam’s defensive capabilities, especially in anti-access/area neglect operations, making it costly for China to participate in any military conflict.

While China’s muted response to Vietnam’s actions may owe to Beijing’s focus on the US in the Philippines, Vietnam’s military limitations may also have contributed to Beijing’s stance.

In military terms, Grossman points out that Vietnam’s military still faces limitations regarding joint training, doctrine development and maritime domain awareness.

In a July 2021 report for the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, Nguyen Phuong points out that Vietnam’s military modernization has slowed significantly since 2016.

Nguyen points out that having limited resources is a significant challenge because they are used for other national priorities like infrastructure and healthcare. He also makes note of the Vietnam People’s Army’s (VPA ) emphasis on political and propaganda over military action, which also impedes modernization efforts.

Nguyen also points out that the anti-corruption campaign spearheaded by former and recently deceased Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong has harmed military procurement by dismantling corrupt networks within the VPA, potentially affecting Vietnam’s ability to counterbalance China’s growing military influence.

In contrast to China’s aggressive behavior toward the Philippines, Vietnam’s approach to handling its territorial claims in the South China Sea may play a role.

Nguyen claims in a May 2024 article for the National Bureau of Asian Research ( NBR ) that Vietnam’s strategy for resolving tensions with China has been tactful and pragmatic, a balancing act between assertiveness and compromise.

Nguyen claims that Vietnam has historically preferred to treat China with submissiveness because of internal conservative influences, but it has increasingly sought support from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) and the US to back down against China’s assertiveness when necessary.

Despite those moves, he says that Vietnam’s strategy remains cautious, avoiding escalatory legal actions or overt alignments with major powers.

Nguyen contends that China views Vietnam as a pragmatic adversary, putting territorial interests before socialist solidarity, recognizing the need for a cooperative relationship.

He points out that China has employed a mix of coercive tactics, including gray-zone actions, to test Vietnam’s resolve while recalibrating its approach when Vietnam shows signs of defiance, fearing Vietnam’s potential pivot to the West and US.

Continue Reading

UK view of dangerous global strategic trends – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia, World

This content was first published by Pacific Forum. It is republished with authority.

The UK recently published the seventh edition of&nbsp, Global Strategic Trends&nbsp, ( GST7 ), an early milestone in the new government ‘s&nbsp, Strategic Defense Review. GST, a program launched by the previous Labor government, provides geostrategic environment to tell corporate reviews that are conducted every four to five years.

Over the course of its 21 years, GST has expanded to include use in several different countries and gained significant international traction as a result.

Edition seven is the most comprehensive but, covering all international regions and shared spaces (oceans, Arctic, Antarctic, area and cybersecurity ), as well as emerging changes in societies, economy, the atmosphere, technology, conflict and security.

The new version is also far more geostrategic than its predecessors, reflecting a planet that has &nbsp, changed significantly&nbsp, since Labor next came to power in 1997. This more uncertain and risky prospect was the inspiration for the development of GST7.

The development of the world’s population has been a major contributor to that change, with the number expected to increase to 10 billion by 2055, tenfold since World War II. This has already led to the growth of new military and economic forces. Russia, some nations in East Asia, and a large portion of Europe are on the verge of a traditional turning point, when Africa, together with South and Southeast Asia, may begin to experience rapid population decline.

Therefore, as new countries leverage on youth bubbles to increase creative and service capacities, the balance of financial power may change even more. The competition for employees among developed nations perhaps even rise, but growing legal and illegal immigration may also add to already existing social, economic, and social pressures.

With international demand set to&nbsp, boost, the politics of energy could transform deeply. While hydrocarbons may be a major resource for the foreseeable future alongside nuclear power, the&nbsp, green transition&nbsp, could modify the landscape significantly. While positive in terms of carbon pollution, this change also brings new issues.

These include an expansion of equipment in previously congested and contested estates and&nbsp, lakes, opposition over clean technologies and markets, and exposure to the&nbsp, important minerals&nbsp, required to make these technologies, bringing innovative global regions into focus.

For example, 60 % of the country’s now identified&nbsp, sodium debris, an essential component for chargers, is under Latin America, while exposure to these sources is already impacting security&nbsp, in other areas.

Although estimates vary on how much will 3-D printing and automation innovations contribute to onshoring of manufacturing, the majority of economists anticipate that the majority of products will still be produced along extended value chains that span the globe.

New&nbsp, emerging nations&nbsp, poised to take on the mantle of the “world’s factory”, however, mean overall patterns of global trade could&nbsp, change significantly&nbsp, by mid-century as new routes and&nbsp, ports&nbsp, open in the coming decades. These configurations could be further altered by a shift in supply chains brought on by rising geopolitical tensions.

The availability of commodities may also increase competition in shared spaces. Significant deposits of critical minerals and&nbsp, hydrocarbons&nbsp, under the poles and across the&nbsp, ocean floors&nbsp, could see new races to mine these fragile ecosystems emerge, placing increasing strain on the international treaties that protect them.

Global food demand is also expected to increase by&nbsp, 50 % by 2055, creating increasing pressures for land farming and on the seas, including through&nbsp, illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing.

Meanwhile, the race for high-tech leadership and control of digital standards and protocols is already growing, particularly given the dual-military potential of many of these technologies.

The development of digital services and communications also presents new potential risks. Artificial intelligence, for example, could prove both the&nbsp, great disruptor&nbsp, of traditional work while creating new forms of employment, with significant implications for economic and social stability.

Digital infrastructure is expanding all over the world. More satellites were&nbsp, launched in the first six months of 2022 than during the previous 60 years, for example, largely by commercial actors.

Subsea cable networks, already carrying&nbsp, 95 % &nbsp, of global internet traffic, continue to expand particularly&nbsp, in the southern hemisphere. These crucial networks will be both more crucial to how the world functions and ever more vulnerable to accidents as well as cyber and physical attacks.

The more frequent, violent, and permanent effects of climate change will cut across these drivers. This coincides with the population expanding and, possibly, shifting to coastal urban areas, the areas that are most susceptible to be impacted by rising sea levels and more destructive storms. In addition, impacts to&nbsp, critical national infrastructure&nbsp, could become more prevalent and damaging.

Meanwhile as ice melt opens up the&nbsp, possibility of new trading lanes&nbsp, across the Arctic, traditional routes such as the Panama Canal are already being&nbsp, impacted&nbsp, by changing temperatures.

Drought and storms could see&nbsp, millions becoming climate refugees&nbsp, in the coming decades, while the viability of some coastal regions and small island states may increasingly be challenged. More recently scientists have warned that some climate tipping points could be&nbsp, reached by mid-century, which could change weather patterns dramatically.

Near universal ownership of portable electronic devices combined with ubiquitous internet access will make the world&nbsp, increasingly connected&nbsp, but also more aware of rising inequality. Although some people will venture into space, the oceans, and the mysteries of life in the coming decades, it’s unlikely that everyone will benefit from these discoveries.

During the pandemic, for example, the world witnessed&nbsp, reversals&nbsp, in the indices of human betterment that had hitherto risen for decades. During that same period, however, &nbsp, 131 global billionaires doubled their wealth. In some areas, the state and the current systems of economic management and governance are now being increasingly questioned.

Combined, these pressures mean the future of geopolitics and security looks increasingly uncertain. The global balance of power is expected to become more congested and contested in the coming decades, even though the US, China, Russia, and other major powers in Europe and East Asia appear to continue to play a significant role. That could lead to larger-scale, emerging medium and small powers playing a more significant role in international affairs in the future.

Pressures on states, however, could also create gaps in governance for other actors to exploit. That includes transnational criminal gangs as well as violent extremism of all kinds. The corporations and the elites that own these assets could also become more powerful global actors as digital, space, and other technologies take a bigger part in how states operate.

The power’s future direction seems to be getting more uncertain at the same time. Earlier conceits that China will surpass all other countries in terms of importance. 1 economy, for example, now look less certain. Russia’s future depends on the outcome of its illegal conflict with Ukraine, as well as the price that China might demand for continued support. The US may face an increasing array of international demands, even if it avoids a turn back to isolationism. which all have more than a “rhyme” of history to them.

But if global order is less certain than at any time&nbsp, since the end of the Cold War, what are the alternatives? GST7 offers five scenarios. Instead of developing strategies based solely on a preferred future, which is frequently a common approach, they are prepared for less palatable world orders as well as the types of actions that might prevent them.

The world might turn to multilateral solutions in the event of a future existential crisis. It is the kind of world that the UN Secretary General requested at his Summit for the Futures.

Alternatively, the current rules-based international order endures, albeit increasingly competed.

However, growing conflict could also result in the creation of competing” spheres of influence” where major global powers impose rules on trade, diplomacy, and security for the nations in their orbits. Given the interdependence of trade and other issues, such a world might not quite be as oppressive as the 19th and early 20th centuries.

Of course, that arrangement could lead to even more bloody wars, and edition seven is the first GST to consider the possibility of a new global conflict. Alternatively, a succession of crises could place states under increasing pressure, with other actors then taking a more prominent role in global affairs.

All these potential futures will need to be taken into account as the new UK government prepares to release the results of its Strategic Defense Review next year. It may not take long to act in the wake of the potential new crises that are a result of ongoing wars in the Euro-Atlantic and Middle East.

Peter Olive&nbsp, ( [email protected]. former Royal Navy officer and senior defense leader, and former senior adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum. Up until July 2024, Peterson oversaw the UK’s Global Strategic Trends program.

Continue Reading

A Nobel nod to AI godfathers who made machines learn – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia, Technology

You have a lot of scientists, mathematicians, and engineers to thank if your teeth dropped while you watched the most recent AI-generated videos, your bank balance was saved from crooks by a fraud detection system, or your time was made a much easier because you were allowed to determine a text message while on the go.

But two names, Princeton University scientist John Hopfield and University of Toronto system professor Geoffrey Hinton, stand out for fundamental contributions to the profound learning technology that makes those experience possible.

For their ground-breaking work in the field of artificial neural networks, the two experts received the Nobel Prize in Physics on October 8, 2024. Although natural neural networks are the modeled for artificial neural networks, both researchers ‘ work relied on statistical science, which is why the prize in science was awarded.

a woman and two men sit at a long table while a large display screen behind them shows the images of two men
The Nobel Committee announces the 2024 Prize in Physics. Photo: Atila Altuntas / Anadolu via Getty Images via The Talk

How a nerve computes

The study of natural cells in living neurons is where artificial neural networks come from. A straightforward concept of the neuron’s functioning was developed by neurophysiologist Warren McCulloch and mathematician Walter Pitts in 1943. A synapse is connected to its surrounding cells in the McCulloch-Pitts design, and they can send signals to them. Therefore, it can incorporate those signs to give signals to additional neurons.

But there is a spin: It does weigh signals coming from different companions separately. Consider whether you are trying to decide whether to purchase a brand-new smartphone. You talk to your buddies and ask them for their suggestions.

Collect all companion tips and choose to go along with what the majority of them say is a straightforward method. For example, you ask three companions, Alice, Bob and Charlie, and they say yay, yay and no, respectively. Because you have two yays and one no, you decide to purchase the telephone.

However, you may believe some friends more because they have in-depth knowledge of technological devices. So you might decide to give more weight to their suggestions. For instance, if Charlie is very experienced, you might qualify his nay three times before deciding to not purchase the phone.

If you’re unfortunate to have a friend who fully despises you in terms of technical gadgets, you may even give them a bad name. Their phew is therefore counted as both a phew and a yay.

When you’ve made your own choice about whether the new phone is a good choice, another friends may ask you for your advice. Also, in artificial and natural neural networks, neurons may index signals from their relatives and give a signal to other neurons.

This potential leads to a vital variation: Is there a cycle in the system? For instance, if I ask Alice, Bob and Charlie today, and tomorrow Alice asks me for my advice, then there is a period: from Alice to me, and from me again to Alice.

a diagram showing four circles stacked vertically with lines of different colors interconnecting them
In recurrent neural networks, cells talk back and forth rather than in only one direction. Zawersh/Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

If the connections between neurons do n’t have a cycle, then computer scientists refer to it as a feedforward neural network. A proposes network’s cells may be arranged in layers.

The sources are the first part. The second level sends its signals to the second level, and so on. The network’s outcomes are reflected in the final level.

However, if the system contains a pattern, computer experts refer to it as a recurrent neural network, and the plans of cells can be more challenging than those in feedforward neural networks.

Hopfield network

Biology served as the initial source of artificial neural networks ‘ inspiration, but soon other fields began to influence their development. These included logic, mathematics and physics.

The Hopfield network, or Hopfield network, was a particular type of recurrent neural network that the physicist John Hopfield studied. In particular, he studied their dynamics: What happens to the network over time?

Similar dynamics are crucial when social networks transmit information. Everyone is aware of the rise in memes and the creation of echo chambers in online social networks. These are all collective phenomena that ultimately result from straightforward information exchanges between network users.

Hopfield was the first to investigate the dynamics of recurrent neural networks by using physics-based models, particularly those created for studying magnetism. He further demonstrated that such neural networks can have a memory function using their dynamics.

Boltzmann machines and backpropagation

During the 1980s, Geoffrey Hinton, computational neurobiologist Terrence Sejnowski and others extended Hopfield’s ideas to create a new class of models called Boltzmann machines, named for the 19th-century physicist Ludwig Boltzmann.

As the name suggests, Boltzmann’s statistical physics is the inspiration for the design of these models. Boltzmann machines could generate new patterns, planting the seeds of the modern generative AI revolution, in contrast to Hopfield networks, which could store patterns and correct errors in patterns like a spellchecker does.

Hinton was also part of another breakthrough that happened in the 1980s: backpropagation. You must somehow select the appropriate weights for the connections between artificial neurons if you want them to perform interesting tasks.

Backpropagation is a crucial algorithm that enables the selection of weights based on the network’s performance on a training dataset. However, training complex artificial neural networks continued to be challenging.

Hinton and his coworkers figured out how to train multilayer networks using Boltzmann machines in the 2000s by first pretraining the network layer by layer, then applying a different fine-tuning algorithm to the pre-trained network in order to further adjust the weights. Deep networks were given the name of multiple layers, and the deep learning revolution had already begun.

AI pays it back to physics

The physics Nobel Prize demonstrates how physics’ ideas contributed to the development of deep learning.

Deep learning has now begun to pay its respects to physics, allowing quick and accurate simulations of everything from molecules and materials to the climate of the planet.

The prize committee’s decision to award Hopfield and Hinton the Nobel Prize in physics demonstrates its belief in humanity’s ability to use these discoveries to advance human development and create a sustainable world.

Ambuj Tewari is professor of statistics, University of Michigan

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Continue Reading

EV tariffs end an era of EU-China engagement – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

The European Commission ’s plan to impose countervailing duties on electric vehicles ( EVs ) from China barely survived a Council of the European Union vote on October 4.

Five EU states voted against the tasks, including Germany, which had abstained in a past voting. Spain was even expected to vote against the taxes after Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez called for revision during a visit to Shanghai in September. But Spain eventually abstained, perhaps because Sanchez realized there was insufficient support to prevent the taxes.

China had pressurized important places to ballot against the taxes while initiating anti-subsidy and anti-dumping investigations into rum, meat and dairy. China has also threatened to curtail its foreign direct investment ( FDI) in EV manufacturing in the EU.

China ’s reaction to the EU tasks is more violent than its reaction to the United States and Canada’s 100 % taxes on Chinese Vehicles– though China has started an anti-dumping research into American rape.

China ’s reaction to the EU determine deserves attention. It’s clear that China has more leverage over the EU than other parts of the world, which contrasts with the EU’s large market size for Chinese EVs ( 55 % of Chinese EV exports go to the EU).

China ’s utilize arises from two major European shortcomings. Second, the EU is unable to communicate with one voice, yet on trade, its most consolidated competence after economic policy. Next, the EU depends on China much more than the US or Canada.

The EU’s main dependency comes from imports, especially important components for online and power transitions. In contrast, some big Western businesses depend on China ’s business.

The situation has not improved despite the EU plan to “de-risk ” from China – meaning to manage the risks related to economic and technological dependence. On the contrary, International dependence on China continues to rise, while the opposite is true for the US.

EU dependence on China also arises from years of European investment ( mostly German ) in China ’s auto industry. European manufacturers then export Vehicles from China into Europe, exposing them to the EU’s competing jobs.

While it seems reasonable that any company– including those from Europe– that receive international subsidies to provide the International market may be penalized to avoid harsh competition, the German government voted on October 4 to protect these automakers over the second market.

The fact that the largest EU land is ready to create such a move may sound the alarm about how much some major European companies operating in China are influencing EU business plan.

This also makes EU de-risking from China all the more urgent if the EU wants to preserve its independence over economic policy-making.

De-risking and economic security will, no doubt, come at a cost, but so will inaction. To reduce the cost, the EU must move from relying on defensive measures, such as the countervailing duties on EVs, to aggressive action to increase competitiveness.

The cost of producing an EV in China is still lower than elsewhere, even if subsidies are not factored in because of China ’s impressive technological upgrade and massive economies of scale.

Most analysts focus on the former as the main barrier for the EU in competing with China on green tech, but this might not be the case. In fact, part of the technology embedded in much of Chinese green tech originated in the EU or the US but received no government support while still unprofitable.

The US is clearly trying to change this situation with a massive industrial policy push, including through the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. Whether these policies will succeed is still unclear.

The EU, by contrast, is still scrambling to build a credible industrial policy plan that will make its innovation commercially viable. This is particularly important for the EU because, compared to the US, it lacks the capital markets needed to scale up innovation.

China ’s huge economies of scale will be much harder to emulate in Europe unless a true single market is developed. Beyond strengthening the single market, the EU also needs to be much faster at building – and rebuilding – partnerships with other major economies, notably in the Global South.

Partnerships are needed beyond markets and sourcing. They will also help reduce the cost of potential retaliation from China against defensive actions such as the new duties on EVs. The main tool for this is coordination of economic security measures, mainly with the G7 and other like-minded economies.

Overall, the European Commission ’s duties on Chinese EVs signal that the era when China-EU relations were mainly governed by engagement is over. China and the EU now compete on the same types of products in third markets and it is more important than ever that the rules of the game are fair.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero is chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis and senior research fellow at Bruegel.

Continue Reading

US states sue TikTok for harming youth with its content – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

TikTok, a social media platform with approximately 120 million active users in the United States, has been sued by 13 US states and Washington, DC, for allegedly killing and failing to protect younger people.  

Fourteen lawyers general said Tuesday that TikTok is harming children’s psychological health as it relies on compulsive features that keep people glued to its software. They said these attributes include messages that may disrupt children ’ sleep patterns and video playback that attracts younger people’s eye.  

They claimed that some kids were injured after accepting dangerous “viral challenges ” circulated on TikTok’s system.    

Citing a Harvard study, the problem said TikTok earned US$ 2 billion in advertising revenue in 2022 from advertisements targeted at US adolescents aged 13-17. In 2023, TikTok’s net advertising revenue amounted to$ 8. 75 billion, compared with$ 5. 96 billion in 2022 and$ 2. 1 billion in 2021, according to eMarketer.

“We strongly disagree with these states, many of which we believe to be inaccurate and misleading, ” TikTok said in a statement on Tuesday. “We provide solid safeguards, actively replace suspected young users and have deliberately launched security features such as proxy screen time limits, family pairing and privacy by default for minors under 16. ”

TikTok said it has endeavored to work with the lawyers standard for over two centuries but found it “incredibly unsatisfactory ” that they have taken the latest action rather than work with the firm on creative solutions to industry-wide problems.

As of July 2024, TikTok had 1. 6 billion engaged people worldwide, making it the world’s second most popular social media platform after Twitter, YouTube, WhatsApp and Instagram, according to Statista.  

Indonesia led the world with the largest TikTok crowd, boasting nearly 157. 6 million energetic people. It was followed by the US and Brazil, with 120. 5 million and 105. 2 million active users, both.

In the US, about a third of all TikTok people belong to the age group of 10 to 19 years while 47. 4 % of TikTok users are under 30.  

‘Dopamine-inducing ’ algorithm   

The average time spent on TikTok is 58. 4 hours a moment in 2024, compared with 55. 4 days in 2023, according to eMarketer.  

TikTok people aged 18-24 spent 76 hours a day on TikTok while those aged 25-34 spent 50 days. The average time spent on TikTok a moment decreases with time.  

”Child and adolescent neurons, which lack the impulse control of grownups, are particularly susceptible to exploitation through the desire, praise and support system that endless browsing provides, ” the Office of the Attorney General in the District of Columbia said in a registration to the local judge.  

“To get users hooked on the app, TikTok uses a dopamine-inducing algorithm that spoon-feeds users highly tailored videos to keep them trapped on the platform for hours on end, ” it added.

Some Chinese netizens said the lawsuits against TikTok can help protect users ’ rights. But some said Facebook and YouTube should face more scrutiny as their short videos are much more addictive.  

Some medical researchers have pointed out that exposure to social media can overstimulate the brain’s reward center and cause sleep and attention problems, and feelings of exclusion in adolescents.

In October 2023, Meta, parent company of Facebook and Instagram, was sued by 33 US states for allegedly misleading the public over addictive features targeting children.  

According to the plaintiffs, Meta’s social media platforms were accused of using “psychologically manipulative” features to lure younger users to spend more time on them.  

Meta said in a statement at that time that it was developing features and policies to meet the needs of teens and their families. It said it has implemented features to remove harmful content related to “suicide, self injury or eating disorders. ”

Children’s privacy

In the latest lawsuits filed by the 13 US states and Washington D. C. , TikTok was accused of having introduced two new dangerous features – a live-streaming feature called TikTok LIVE and a virtual currency system called TikTok Coins – in 2019.

The complaint said TikTok users buy the coins to send virtual gifts during LIVE sessions. Streamers can cash out the coins for real money.  

It said TikTok’s lax age verification measures incentivize US minors to lie about their ages to gain access to LIVE. It said LIVE’s design, including TikTok Coins and virtual gifts, enables other serious harms to minors including sexual exploitation.    

On October 3, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed a lawsuit against TikTok for allegedly violating the state’s Securing Children Online Through Parental Empowerment Act. Paxton said TikTok has failed to offer tools for parents and guardians to manage and control their minors ’ privacy and account settings.  

A TikTok spokesperson said the firm strongly disagrees with these allegations as it offers robust safeguards for teens and parents, including family pairing.  

Some Chinese commentators criticized TikTok for failing to meet the legal requirements overseas.  

“The alleged infringement of children’s privacy is like a mirror that reflects how technology giants have lost their moral way while chasing profits, ” a Beijing-based columnist says in a recent article. “It reminds us that no matter how technological advancement progresses, the protection of children’s privacy should always be an insurmountable red line. ”

Read: US seeks to slam shut Shein, Temu trade loophole

Follow Jeff Pao on X at  @jeffpao3

Continue Reading

Iran and the collapsing axis – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

From 1979, when Shiite Muslim clerics took power in Iran, the government and its safety machine built up armed militias in the Middle East that became a mainstay of Tehran’s anti-Israel coalition known as the Axis of Tolerance.

In the aftereffects of the October 7, 2023, assault on Israel by Hamas, the empire has come under severe risk. Israel retaliated not merely against Hamas, in the now-devastated Gaza Strip, but also against Hezbollah, in Lebanon, which took up the Israeli cause by launching rockets into Israel the next day, October 8, 2023.

After weeks of tit-for-tat flying markets, the Israelis stepped up their detonations of southern Lebanon and Beirut. It has moved three groups of troops to the border in preparation for a floor unpleasant.

Houthi rebels in Yemen, a relative newcomer to the Axis, harassed professional transport in the Red Sea in support of Hamas. In reply, Israel, the US and the UK have launched aircraft and missiles attacks at Houthi military goals.

Iran itself entered the fray in April 2024, two days after Israel killed, via weapon strike, an Egyptian Military Guard Commander who was visiting Damascus. After weeks trying to stay on the outside, Iran tried to strike back by launching about 300 inadequate missiles into Israel.

But more was to occur. On October 1, 2024, Iran hit Israel with 180 missiles in response to the July killings of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s leading head while he was visiting, and of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, killed in late September by a storm of Jewish missiles fired into Beirut. Both were struck down by weapons sent from far.

A anxious Iran feared that it had to reply both attacks, watchers said. Then, there was a chance allies may prevent symbolically spinning around the shaft.

“Simply put, Iran may have calculated that failing to respond would later lead its allied armies to subject their loyalty and commitment, particularly if they perceived that Tehran was unwilling to take the same challenges they were, ” wrote Arman Mahmoudian, a global surveillance scholar and Middle East specialist at the University of South Florida.

Nicole Grajewski, a researcher at Carnegie Endowment’s Nuclear Policy Program ,  concurred: “Restraint threatened to degrade Iran’s trust among its friends. ”

Concerns over losing its local alliances even prompted Iran to contemplate a deeper deterrent option in case Israeli strikes continue, as they possibly did: full development of its atomic arms program. “Iran may progressively see its nuclear potential as a critical part of its broader safety strategy, ” Grajewski said.

Iran’s safety infrastructure has relied on sub-nuclear equipment. One was the ability of projecting military power beyond its edges through allied proxy – particularly Hezbollah but even Hamas and the Houthis, along with insurgents in Iraq ( to attack US troops ) and in Syria.

In military conditions, this variety of friends provided Iran with “forward protection ” that allowed it to fight Israel without explicitly engaging with its own troops.

The various sub-nuclear tool was the threat to Israel posed by Iran’s typically military missile and drone arsenal that may reach deep in Israel.

The deterrence breakdown alarmed the Iranian government and outraged domestic critics.

In an apparent effort to calm fears of all-out war after the recent strike on Israel, the government announced it had no plan to send Iranian ground forces to help either Hamas or Hezbollah. “There is no need to send extra or volunteer forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, ” said Nasser Kanaani, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Kanaani said. Both allies “have the capability and strength to defend themselves against the aggression. ”

Its air tools may have been delayed by advice from Washington. American press reports said Biden had advised Iran to take a measured response to Israel’s attacks. The US president and French President Michel Macron had devised a two-week ceasefire plan that was supposed to defuse the war in Lebanon.

Netanyahu rejected the proposal, prompting outraged critics to criticize President Masoud Pezeshkian for betraying allies in the name of currying favor with the West.

“Iran’s delay in responding to the assassination of martyr Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, while the world was waiting for Iran’s response, made the Zionist regime dare to assassinate Sayed Hassan Nasrallah as well, ” conservative politician Ali Motahari wrote on X ( formerly Twitter ). “We were tricked by America, which repeatedly sent messages saying that we will establish a ceasefire. ”

The government is under fire for ostensibly prioritizing renewed nuclear weapons diplomacy with the US over care for the well-being of Iran’s allies. Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh took place while he was visiting Tehran for the inauguration of Pezeshkian, who was elected in July.

The Iranian government also seems intent on presenting itself as an innocent bystander in Middle Eastern turmoil. In a letter to the United Nations, Iran’s diplomatic envoys in New York   described their country ’s retaliation as a “legal, rational, and legitimate response ” to Israel’s “terrorist acts. ” However, the note added that, if Israel should strike back, “a subsequent and crushing response will ensue. ”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was unmoved by any sign of moderation or threats from Iran. More attacks are on the way, he indicated. “Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it, ” he  said in a video message the day after Iran’s October 1 attack. “The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. They will understand. ”

Possible targets include Iran’s oil industry and its nuclear facilities, which are key to Tehran’s potential development of atomic weaponry.

Attacks on both would present political problems of for Biden. Last weekend he said that communications between Israel and the US about military targeting had taken place. Biden said he had discussed whether crippling oil production was in order, but he waffled on where he came out on the question. In response to a reporter’s question, he said, “ I think that would be a little … Anyway. ”

The nuclear issue also presents a quandary. Biden inherited the frustration of President Barack Obama, whose nuclear control deal with Iran was canceled by Obama’s successor Donald Trump. It would be difficult in the American election season for Biden, who has blamed Iran for Middle Eastern turmoil, to now inhibit Israel from keeping atomic bombs out of Iranian hands.  

Instead, Biden shuffled talk of hitting nuclear facilities to anonymous spokesmen. Officials who spoke beneath a cloak of anonymity said Biden advised Netanyahu to take a “measured approach ” short of destroying nuclear facilities.

Trump, who is running to replace Biden in the November 5 election, seized on Biden’s hesitation as a sign of weakness. Iran’s nuclear facilities should be a target, he said on Sunday “Is n’t that what you’re supposed to hit? ” Trump said. “Hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later. ”

Vice President Kamala Harris, who was chosen by Biden’s Democratic Party to replace him in the vote, also addressed the issue during a television interview that also aired Sunday. “ What we need to do is to ensure that Iran never achieves the ability to be a nuclear power, ” she said. “That is one of my highest priorities. ”

She did n’t indicate what the US – or Israel – should do about it. “I’m not going to talk about hypotheticals at this moment, ” she said.

Continue Reading

No negotiations, no peace, but what about NATO? – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Political member and Vice President Kamala Harris says she did not speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin without Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky.

Ukraine’s battle, which is NATO’s conflict, is going badly. NATO’s prospect is in question.

Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelensky, who was just forced to cancel a forthcoming “peace summit ” ( officially postponed to a future time ) because no one wanted to come, has made it clear he will not negotiate with Moscow under any  situation.    

Zelensky understands that any agreement he might render to Russia may be dangerous for him.   As his military is beginning to dissolve, Zelensky is relying on the Azov Brigade, an elite system that some say is trying to wipe clear a neo-Nazi intellectual stain from its predecessor unit’s story. Because Zelensky is unlikely to move, various “peace formulas ” being floated in Europe won’t change anything or influence the outcome.

The standard Euro-idea is to try and freeze the conflict, recognize that Russia will continue to occupy parts of Ukraine for now and take Ukraine into NATO – or, if that is n’t possible, provide some other sort of security guarantees for the future.

Under this method, Ukraine could recover its defense, gets its business back on track, and confront the Russians some years in the future when the leads are healthier.

The Russians don’t had to accept the latest thought that, owing to Zelensky, it is dead on appearance.   Of course that won’t prevent Europe and some in Washington from pushing the proposal  anyway,   while shoveling more arms to Ukraine, hoping the Ukrainians may hold out until well after the US elections.  

If Ukraine go chest up before the end of October, it would be panic for the Democrats in the US and also may likely crumble the German government, perhaps even the weak French regime. Most professionals don’t think that will happen.   But most specialists usually are bad.

However, for their part the Russians won’t take a peace in place since it offers them everything.   The Russians clearly want Ukraine to be demilitarized and neutral, and they probably won’t accept NATO-led security guarantees ( although Russian public statements are ambiguous ). Officially Russia wants Luhansk, Donbas, Zaphorize, and the Crimea recognized ( all have been annexed to Russia ), and it demands protection of Russian-speakers in Ukraine.

There is little or no possibility that Russia’s needs will be met, both by the recent Russian state or by most NATO states.   For that reason, the Zelensky difficult line, so long as it lasts, guarantees that Russia’s actual goal will be to remove Ukraine’s government immediately with one suitable to Russia and willing to agree to Moscow ’s says.

If the Russians you pull it off, then NATO will have to decamp, something it may do anyways if the empire is to keep any credibility.   However, despite a lot of bravado, the chance to revive NATO as a military alliance does not seem appealing.  

There are tremendous causes why NATO is floundering, despite images.   The biggest reason of all is that NATO has been expanding without paying attention to its need to be a reliable defense empire.

Ukraine is part of that expansion, and under US and EU force, the growth is spreading to the South Caucasus, as far as Armenia.

A greater NATO is an ally without reasonable territories, as is extremely clear. That is why Ukraine is getting chewed up, despite Northern arsenals having been emptied in the work to save it. The Russians won’t abuse the South Caucasus including Armenia when the day comes

It is unfortunate that NATO has talked itself into this disaster. NATO now is about growth, no defense.   When it comes to defence, NATO is wholly reliant on the United States and the determination to take the US Army, Air Force and Navy to support NATO expansion.

NATO enlargement as a plan requires substantial military commitments by America’s supporters.   That won’t arise.   It is fair to ask: What does the US get by supporting an interventionist NATO policy?   There is growing discomfort in the United States about the hundreds of billions wasted on Ukraine, with no settlement nowadays possible.   At some point that plan will result in a big walk-back from the NATO ally, and from any responsibility to protect Europe when it really does little to protect itself.

Continue Reading