Bolen C – Page 6 – Sure A Not

Israel-Lebanon peace path might run through Moscow – Asia Times

On: November 13, 2024

Moscow is highlighted by a new document that Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and his associates had a covert trip to Russia.

Israel overwhelmingly responded by cooperatively punishing the Palestinians in response to Russia’s persistent assertion that Hamas initiated these conflicts ‘ first Gazan dimension.

Since Moscow supported associated UN Security Council Resolutions, the Kremlin has n’t raised the issue.

Because Russia is aware that Israel has resisted Western pressure and has refused to cooperate with Russian arming Ukraine, it is aware of the restrictions being placed on it by the West.

Their fiercely social disagreements over the Middle Eastern and Ukrainian war have n’t altered this, nor have they prevented Russia from squabbling about Israel’s standard attacks on Hezbollah and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in neighboring Syria.

On those, Russia respects Syria’s straight to mate with whoever it wants, but it also freely appears to acquire Iran to be a nuisance.

This analysis weighs on the fact that the above structure has been in place since Russia’s anti-terrorist involvement in the Arab Republic began nine years before.

In light of Israel’s says that Iran and Hezbollah are preparing for a bigger assault against Israel, it can be assumed that Russia gives cred to these claims. Russia has not stopped Israel’s strikes despite often praising them as violating international law.

Hence, Dermer’s alleged surprise trip to Russia may have included discussions about the proposed plan to stop Iran’s imports of Egyptian weapons through Syria.

When Israel’s military operations in Lebanon are terminated, whenever they occur, this could help maintain whatever post-conflict standing quo that is unfortunately reached there. It could also maintain the Israeli-Syrian front along the Golan Heights.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in September 2015 during their meeting in the Kremlin on the eve of the Syrian intervention that” we are aware of&nbsp, these ( Iran’s and Hezbollah’s ) attacks ( from Syria’s Golan Heights into Israel ) and&nbsp, we condemn them”.

Putin also discussed the matter with US President Donald Trump during his first year in office, when the two leaders met in Helsinki in July 2018, because the situation is so crucial to him. At the time, Putin said:

I&nbsp, would also like to&nbsp, notice that after the&nbsp, terrorists are routed in&nbsp, south Syria, in&nbsp, the&nbsp, so-called’ southern area’, the&nbsp, situation in&nbsp, the&nbsp, Golan Heights may be brought into complete conformity with the&nbsp, 1974 agreement on&nbsp, the&nbsp, disengagement of&nbsp, Jewish and&nbsp, Arab forces.

This may make it possible to&nbsp, take calmness to&nbsp, the&nbsp, Golan Heights and&nbsp, recover the&nbsp, agreement between the&nbsp, Syrian Arab Republic and&nbsp, the&nbsp, State of&nbsp, Israel. The&nbsp, President devoted exclusive attention to&nbsp, this problem today. &nbsp,

I&nbsp, do like to&nbsp, stress that Russia has a&nbsp, play in&nbsp, this course of&nbsp, events and&nbsp, will agree to&nbsp, precisely this position. This may entail a&nbsp, move towards establishing a&nbsp, only and&nbsp, tough peace on&nbsp, the&nbsp, base of&nbsp, UN Security Council Resolution 338.

Igor Konashenkov, a spokeswoman for the Russian Defense Ministry, made the revelations during a press conference following the mid-air affair between Russia and Israel in September 2018:

Following a six-year break, the Russian army supported the Arab military activity in the Golan Heights to allow the UN peace goal to begin patrolling the disputed frontier between Syria and Israel.

More than 140 km to the south of Syria, the director claimed, adding that this was requested by Tel Aviv. A full of 1, 050 personnel, 24 MLRSs and military missiles, as well as 145 pieces of various munitions and military technology were withdrawn from the place,’ Konashenkov told journalists.”

One month later, while participating in his classic Q&amp, A at the Valdai Club’s annual conference, Putin said that:

It is not up to&nbsp, Russia to&nbsp, urge Iran to&nbsp, left Syria. After all, both Syria and&nbsp, Iran are royal countries, and&nbsp, they should create their own marriage.

Well, Russia does have severe, deep-rooted relationships both with Iran and&nbsp, Syria. Also, we have been able to&nbsp, handle certain issues by&nbsp, interesting in&nbsp, speech and&nbsp, discussions with our Egyptian partners, including on&nbsp, withdrawing unpleasant systems from the&nbsp, Israeli borders and&nbsp, the&nbsp, Golan Heights.

As&nbsp, for&nbsp, the&nbsp, complete withdrawal, this is a&nbsp, separate issue that has to&nbsp, be resolved through dialogue between Iran and&nbsp, Syria, as&nbsp, well as&nbsp, between Iran and&nbsp, the&nbsp, United States. We are ready to&nbsp, join this discussion”.

The Russian leader clearly has a strong desire to keep the Golan Heights stable and orderly.

Natan Sharansky, a former Soviet dissident turned Israeli politician, shared the following information with The Washington Post in September 2000 after a meeting with Putin at the Kremlin earlier that month:

Putin’s lunch included a lot of glowing memories of a family trip to Jerusalem, the Galilee, and the Golan Heights, as well as his occasionally exuberant expressions of sympathy for Israel, his dislike of antisemitism, and his support for Jews in Russia and the Jewish diaspora.

‘ He said it was n’t simple in the KGB being sympathetic to Jews,’ Sharansky said. ‘ However, he explained to me that there was a Jewish family there, which he thought was almost like relatives, and that he had grown up in a communal apartment. He liked them very much.’

Putin’s statement to the Keren Heyesod Foundation at their annual meeting in Moscow in September 2019 was pertinent:” Almost two decades later, I’ll tell them.

Traditionally close cultural exchanges are supported by Russia and Israel. Hundreds of thousands of Russians travel to Israel each year to see its religious and cultural attractions. Families and friendship exist between Russians and Israelis.

This is a true common family, I can say this without exaggeration. In Israel, there are almost 2 million Russian speakers. We consider Israel a Russian-speaking country. Our countries are unified by historical events that are frequently tragic.

In keeping with his emphasis on the Golan Heights, it’s important to point out that Article 8.2 of the Russian-written draft constitution for Syria, which was presented in early 2017, called for it to “denounce war as an infringement on other countries ‘ sovereignty and a means of settling international conflicts.”

It was n’t adopted, but the point is that Russia arguably envisaged Syria formally freezing its conflict with Israel over the Golan Heights indefinitely, pending a political resolution.

Russia could significantly influence the Middle Eastern wars by using its military and political influence over Syria, which was fueled by its anti-terrorist operation over the Arab Republic nine years ago to stop Hezbollah’s Iranian arms imports through the Arab Republic.

If the proposed plan for disarming Hezbollah is approved while stabilizing the Golan Heights, it could literally kill two birds with one stone in Lebanon by upholding the post-conflict status quo.

Even though Russian compliance might depend on the incoming Trump administration’s offering favorable terms for ending the Ukrainian conflict, that outcome would go in line with some of the US’ top regional policy priorities.

Given his close ties to Putin and Trump, it’s possible that if there is political will on both sides, then creative diplomacy between Russia, the US, and Israel, with Benjamin Netanyahu acting as a potential mediator, could help bring both conflicts to an end.

Good time to recall what exactly makes a republic – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: November 13, 2024

In: Asia

With concerns over oligarchy, mob rule, a breakdown of equal protection under the law, and the supremacy of citizens ‘ ability to decide the fate of the country, the US presidential election of 2024 was viewed as a crucial test for the country’s political system.

There is no justification for the United States to be immune from full falls throughout history. That fear frequently leads to a passing glib mention of the Greek democracy or the Roman Republic’s close.

But there’s a deeper story: States came into being much earlier in Middle Eastern and Mediterranean societies. And as we try to understand the issues and opportunities, we can use many more examples to guide our understanding.

A real state is a social system without king or focus political energy in any office, branch, or personal. With individual branches of government providing checks and balances, elected representatives represent people and influence decisions on their behalf. In the early days of nations, a far wider range of power structures emerged in contrast to the traditional republics.

Republikas gradually gained popularity as the international standard after World War I, and the majority of previous German colonies formally recognizing their independence in the following century. Nazi and communist countries, which centralized strength in people or ruling events, likewise reduced in quantity.

Despite their concentration of power, however, some fascist and socialist states claimed the title of republics, and while 149 countries out of 193 identify as republics now, much less retain democratic principles and mix them properly with politics. Considering the nations ‘ historical evolution, which ones are best suited to serve as the most resilient modern example?

In sparsely populated economic cultures, states require frequent meetings and assemblies, which makes it difficult to establish them, and empires typically concentrate power very greatly for self-rule. It was in smaller city-states, especially trade-focused people, where citizens may kind factions, exchange ideas, and control government decisions and rules for business.

Some of the earliest experiments with republican governance appeared in ancient Sumerian city-states ( 4500–2000 BC ), centered in modern-day Iraq. Kingships shared energy with royal families and groups, as well as with regular citizens, more as negative arbitrators than rulers. In Kish, residents may appoint a new monarch during catastrophes, while in Uruk, meetings of townsmen and elders had to accept big military decisions.

The Sumerian city-states fell to the Akkadian and Babylonian Empires by 1750 BC, but Phoenician city-states, emerging about 250 years afterward in what is now Lebanon, revived democratic principles. A trader class and citizen council were frequently tasked with a dynastic power in this country. Ancient records from the middle of the fourteenth century BC mention alliances and help requests from the “men of Arwad” and “elders of Irqata” as well as Egyptian records that show Ancient cities sending delegates to symbolize citizens more than monarchs.

By the 6th century BC, the Ancient city of Tyre had functioned for seven years without a king, governed rather under suffetes, or courts, elected for little words. In Chios, a “people’s council” allowed citizens to debate laws and hold officials accountable.

However, beginning in the 9th century BC and continuing over the next few centuries, Phoenician city-states were successively conquered or subjugated by the Assyrian, Babylonian, Persian, and Macedonian Empires.

Like other civilizations, Phoenicians established colonies and trading posts. Carthage, founded by Tyre in 814 BC in modern Tunisia, grew into a powerful city-state with its own republican features.

The monarchy had been replaced by two elected suffetes from aristocratic families in the early 7th century BC. While younger merchants could gain influence and a popular assembly gave citizens the opportunity to voice their opinions on important decisions, they were governed alongside an aristocratic Senate. Additionally, religious and military leaders had a lot of power.

Republican ideals were n’t confined to Mesopotamia and the Mediterranean. In ancient texts, including the Maha Parinibbana Sutta, Indian republics called Gana-Sanghas were mentioned in 6th-century BC.

Some adopted republican styles of government, while others formed republican confederations, like Sumerian and Phoenician city-states, to make decisions collectively and protect against larger threats. The Indian republics were gradually absorbed by the Maurya Empire ( 321–185 BC ) and other entities.

Ancient Greek city-states also developed republican ideals. Although Parta was largely monarchical throughout the region, it still had a constitution and popular assembly as of 600 BC. Athens established a direct democracy in 507 BC, known as demokratia, meaning “people” and “rule”.

Greece’s slave-based economy allowed some citizens time to participate in politics, though this limited political fairness. In 431 BC, Attica, the region surrounding Athens, had an estimated population of 315, 000, of which only 172, 000 were citizens, and just 40, 000 male citizens could vote.

Still, Athens’s democratic system allowed these citizens to frequently debate, deliberate, and vote. The Council of Five Hundred, which was chosen annually by lot to draft laws and oversee administration, supervised them.

However, following Athens ‘ Golden Age, 4th century BC Greek critics like Plato and Aristotle and later historians like Polybius criticized the system for ineffectiveness and vulnerability to charismatic leaders, which sparked irrational policy decisions.

They emphasized balancing public, aristocracy, and monarchical roles to avoid the typical political cycle of chaos and order: first, a strong leader unites a restive society under a monarchy, which evolves into tyranny. It is overthrown and replaced by an aristocracy, which reduces into oligarchy. The cycle is resurrected by democracy after it eventually takes its place but turns into mob rule.

Invasions further weakened Greece’s republican and democratic systems, including in 338 BC, when Greece fell under the control of the Macedonian Empire, ending the independence of many city-states. Despite this, Greek republics created republican confederations to shield themselves from threats, including the nearby Roman Republic.

The term republic derives from the Roman res publica, meaning “public affairs”, emphasizing shared governance, civic participation, and checks and balances. Since its founding in 509 BC, the Roman Republic’s political structure had evolved considerably.

Two consuls were elected and held executive power, as opposed to an aristocratic senate, in Rome, where two tribunes were elected annually to represent the common citizens.

Romans were skeptical of Greek democracy, especially in Athens, due to its instability, infighting, and mob rule. Carthage’s republic sounded overly commercial and lacking in the civic fervor the Romans valued.

This loyalty was central to Rome’s military, staffed by a citizen army motivated by shared rewards. In contrast, Carthage’s strong, citizen-led navy protected trade routes, but its reliance on mercenaries for land campaigns made them costly and unpredictable.

The ability to rebel against Roman rule was diminished by these circumstances. By 146 BC, Rome defeated both Greece and Carthage, cementing its dominance and expanding political system. Polybius suggests that Rome’s success over Carthage was partially due to its powerful, aristocratic Senate, while Carthage’s policies were increasingly shaped by popular influence. He argued that the majority in Carthage favored the influence of the elites over Rome’s decisions.

Yet by this time, Rome was approaching its Late Republic phase. The scholar Harriet Flower’s research argues that the Roman Republic was n’t a single entity but a series of six republics, each with unique political characteristics. The idea of a single Roman Republic has also been criticized by some, dividing it into three distinct periods with changing power structures.

The Early Republic ( 509–367 BC ) was marked by tensions between patricians (aristocratic elites ) and plebeians ( common citizens ). Significant reforms were resulted from the fight for plebeian rights, including the establishment of tribunes, which were frequently elected by the Concilium Plebis to represent common interests.

During the Middle Republic ( 367–133 BC ), the Licinian-Sextian laws of 367 BC were passed to again alleviate tensions between patricians and plebeians, limiting patrician land ownership, providing debt relief for plebeians, and ensuring that at least one of the two consuls was a plebeian. However, political power increasingly concentrated in the Senate, undermining these reforms.

Rome’s military victories over rivals in the Late Republic, which occurred between 133 and 31 BC, coincided with the rise in the number of regular citizens serving in court, particularly jurors. Yet the republic was plagued by social conflict, corruption, and civil unrest.

Sulla’s march on Rome in 88 BC and his curtailing of the tribunes ‘ power exemplified rising instability. After, figures like Pompey in the’ 70s BC and Julius Caesar in 59 BC began consolidating power, further undermining republican values. In 27 BC, Augustus formally transitioned Rome into an empire, while maintaining the illusion of republican traditions.

By backing Augustus, supporting dictatorial powers, and reluctance to impose legal rules during times of crisis, Roman orator Cicero, a well-known proponent of the Republic, unintentionally contributed to its demise, highlighting the dangers of sacrificing republican ideals to manage unrest. For the next few centuries, republican ideals were largely sidelined.

Feudalism and monarchies spread throughout the former Yugoslavian Empire’s territories and peripheral areas after its collapse in 476 AD. This instability nonetheless allowed new republics to emerge, such as Venice, founded in 697 AD.

It maintained a 1, 100-year run as a republic through a political system that encouraged merchant participation and representation, shrewd diplomacy, social mobility, community cohesion, and an extensive trade network. In 1797, France finally conquered it.

During the Italian Renaissance ( 14th to 17th centuries ), urbanization, advancements in communication, and Enlightenment ideals enabled the rise of new city-states. Republican systems were established by merchant classes and other groups as alternatives to European monarchies elsewhere.

However, they were ultimately overthrown by empires, partly because they were unable to take advantage of the expanding Atlantic trade routes, which had diminished the importance of the Mediterranean.

Republics were not confined to Europe. When Chinese settlers recruited by local sultans for mining formed companies to protect their interests, the Kongsi Republics in modern-day Malaysia, particularly the Lanfang Republic, were established.

They eventually developed into autonomous regions with elected leaders and various levels of democratic control. The Lanfang Republic was eventually overthrown by Dutch colonial forces in 1884, with the remainder being absorbed by treaties or militarily overthrown by the end of the century.

The large-scale republican state resurrected following the founding of the United States. The US officially became a constitutional republic in 1787, attempting to end the monarchy while avoiding a tumultuous direct democracy.

The founding fathers established a mixed system, balancing the right to the vote and protecting the aristocracy with the right to demand the government’s consent ( though it was only for white male landowners ). Similar discussions in post-Revolutionary France after 1789 followed the ongoing debates over constitutional amendments and democracy expansion.

Today, many republics exist, but their authenticity and stability can be compromised. Being conquered imposes outside authority, while others pursue foreign expansion themselves, centralizing control and subjugating other territories.

Republics such as those in 16th century Netherlands, 17th century England, and 18th century US and France grew into empires or reverted to monarchies, adapting in ways whose lessons are still relevant today. These expansionist policies, often justified as essential for wealth and security, led to the abandonment of certain republican and democratic principles.

Republics can also shift toward authoritarianism, with modern policymakers perceiving more open democratic systems as unstable and vulnerable to manipulation.

In recent years, China and Russia have seen reductions in public accountability, civil liberties, meaningful political participation, and concentrations of power behind Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.

In North Korea, power has been concentrated in the leader’s office since its founding, with leadership passed within the Kim family. Since the 1990s, there has been a dynasty under the Aliyev family in Azerbaijan, with concerns that Turkmenistan may follow.

Countries with strong presidential systems, common in the Americas, risk concentrating power in the executive branch. Fixed terms limit the removal of unpopular leaders, since, unlike in parliamentary democracies, no” confidence vote” mechanism exists for crisis situations. Partisan loyalty can also weaken checks and balances, and coups can be common.

For representation and collective decision-making, alliances and federations of Greek city-states, such as the Achaean and Lycian Leagues and the Native American Iroquois Confederacy, influenced concepts like the US Constitution and European Union ( EU).

The statement that the US is” a republic, not a democracy” reflects the original aim to keep political power within the states rather than the federal government. However, authority has increasingly centralized in Washington, DC, reducing state sovereignty, tensions mirrored in the EU between individual states and Brussels.

The influence of billionaires and corporations on the political process, government corruption, and the decline of social mobility are also possible causes of political apathy and extremism. Social media platforms offer a greater level of political participation, but they are becoming more vulnerable to disinformation from big tech and political actors, which opens up new ways for democracies to veer away from mob rule.

Countries still navigating the governance structures in their own contexts reflect the historical diversity of republics today. Kazakhstan, initially authoritarian, has seen some shift toward a more balanced system with a more powerful parliament following popular protests in 2022, though it remains less democratic.

Similarly, Singapore, often described as authoritarian, is still considered a republic due to some checks and balances, maintaining a blend of controlled leadership and political structure.

An informed and engaged citizenry, supported by a strong economic base, is essential for a successful republic. Citizens must feel the benefits of their system, and these must endure through fair elections, the rule of law, and due process. Wide-ranging trade networks and adaptable alliances are essential to successful foreign policy, as is a strong military and avoiding military overreach or falling into the trap of foreign conquest.

Historically, empire and monarchy have been more common than republics, shaping world order through hierarchical and anarchic systems. Republikas can govern more democratically by cooperating in a manner akin to that of ancient confederations, which is intended to support the sovereignty and equality of nations.

The Achaean League and Lycian League consisted of states with varying political systems cooperating within a loose, republican-style confederation. Countries can work together under common principles and gain a voice in the global system through modern blocs like the EU, ASEAN, and the African Union.

Direct democracy has meanwhile increased in domestic politics in the 2010s as more popular referendums on legal and constitutional issues have been conducted around the world, especially in Europe.

Direct democracy is becoming more evident at regional and local levels, even though larger republics like the US, Germany, and India still largely avoid national-level votes on important issues. Due to the rushed nature of ballot initiatives in states like California and Arizona, which give little time for meaningful discussion, deliberation and integration still suffer.

These referendums have recently become more popular and offered a substitute for traditional political processes thanks to modern citizen assemblies, which are based on those that were founded thousands of years ago.

They have influenced major policy changes, such as climate policies in France to abortion laws in Ireland, with assemblies, typically convened by legislative bodies in partnership with nonprofits, designed to reflect demographics. While they have led to concrete policy shifts, some recommendations have not been adopted, with lawmakers citing the importance of expert-led decision-making.

With the US election behind us, reassessing republican ideals, both domestically and globally, is crucial. How the GOP implements policies will ease or amplify concerns as it potentially takes control of all three branches of government in a divided country.

The US’s ability to influence the world and implement its influence in accordance with democratic principles will determine the country’s future.

John P Ruehl is an Australian-American journalist living in Washington, DC, and a world affairs correspondent for the Independent Media Institute. He is a contributor to several foreign affairs publications, and his book, Budget Superpower: How Russia Challenges the West With an Economy Smaller Than Texas ‘, was published in December 2022.

Human Bridges provided the Independent Media Institute with permission to republish this article.

Philippines may buy, not borrow, Typhon missiles under Trump – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: November 13, 2024

In: Asia

MANILA—Donald Trump’s re-election and the formation of a&nbsp, more hawkish&nbsp, regional security team had inspired crucial allies to double down on their defence cooperation with America.

Trump has stated on numerous occasions that he anticipates that allies will increase their security spending and more directly contribute to the preservation of the US-led global security order.

The Philippines, which has been constantly resisting China’s confidence in opposite lakes, appears ready to answer that phone.

The Southeast Asian nation is now aiming to acquire the highly-anticipated US Mid-Range Capability ( MRC )” Typhon” missile system after already purchasing supersonic anti-ship missile launchers from India. &nbsp,

Capable of launching both SM-6 and Tomahawk weapons, the Typhon is a smart and land-based weapon system that has a range of up to 2, 500 meters.

That puts China’s military features, including its anti-cruise nuclear missiles (ACBMS ), across both its southeastern regions as well as the South China Sea, nicely within its sights in the event of any emergency. &nbsp,

In the event that China decides to launch dynamic attacks on Taiwan or any other competing applicant state in the South China Sea, the Philippines would be required to provide for any American military intervention.

The Philippines ‘ National Security Advisor Eduardo Ano has made it clear that the country has certainly given a “timeline” for Typhon, which is already stationed in President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s home province of Ilocos Norte.

If something, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr has emphasized the government’s “right to get” the program openly in the near future. The US and the US conducted joint military activities in the Philippines earlier this year.

The Philippines is “on monitor to become a true troublemaker in the South China Sea,” according to China’s state-run Global Times newspaper, which has had adverse effects on bilateral relations and local stability.

Eager to improve its own deterrent ability, Manila is unlikely to waver under Beijing’s pressure. The Philippines has instead made more strides to proclaim its claims in nearby waters.

In accordance with international law and the country’s standards in the South China Sea, President Marcos Jr. signed new legislation last year, in line with the Hague’s 2016 administrative court ruling.

China promptly responded by calling the Philippine Ambassador to Beijing and releasing a diagram to support its own claims regarding the tumultuous Scarborough Shoal.

Having already released a “new image” that demarcated China’s “ten-dash line” covering much of the South China Sea and Gulf of Tonkin, China has now also set geographical locations for 16 basic items around the Philippine-claimed reef, which has been under China’s de facto power since 2012.

” Huangyan Dao]island ] has always been China’s territory”, the Chinese foreign ministry said, using its name for the Scarborough Shoal. The Chinese government’s” a natural action” is in line with international law and accepted accepted customs regarding legal strengthening of marine control.

Manila has consistently warned of a swift response in the event that Beijing reclaims and constructs military installations on or around the feature given the Scarborough Shoal’s closeness to Philippine coasts and military installations in Subic.

According to Yuyuan Tantian, a social media channel affiliated with China’s state broadcaster CGNTN,” we had n’t published]baselines around Scarborough Shoal ] earlier ]because ] China has consistently taken a rational, restrained and responsible approach to handling maritime issues with neighboring countries”.

The Southeast Asian nation is doubling down on its security cooperation with the US as China tightens the rope around Philippine-claimed functions in the sea area. &nbsp,

The Philippines does make the most of its unique landscape, which includes Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the Western Pacific, by purchasing state-of-the-art weapon devices, even though it lacks the funds to purchase ships and cunning fighter jets like another important US friends.

The Typhon’s arrival in the Philippines earlier this year, in preparation for the annual Balikatan tasks, marked the first time a mid-range missile system had been stationed there since the US-Russia Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty was disbanded in 2019.

Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, sounded the alarm earlier this year when he acknowledged how crucial it is for missile systems to determine the Indo-Pacific’s tremendous power struggle.

Both Manila and Washington immediately had reservations about the exact status and operational details of the Typhon’s early-year deployment because of its strategic and diplomatic significance.

The Marcos Jr. leadership has welcomed increased defence cooperation with the West to improve its punishment and keep China’s confidence in check as it continues to show no signs of compromise in the South China Sea.

” We have no established timeline”, Philippine National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano said lately, making it clear that earlier presentations on the Typhon’s departure from the Philippines were excessive. ” For now, we do n’t plan to withdraw it. We need the Mod missile system for education and enhancing our soldiers ‘ abilities”, he said in a new media meeting.

In anticipation of a potential immediate order, the Philippine Armed Forces have acknowledged that their troops are already receiving training using the MRC app system, particularly in terms of mobility.

The MRC program, according to Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro, “in fact, we intend to have this capacity.” It gives the capability more depth and deterrence, Teodoro said. ” We will not sacrifice our right to acquire it within our territory”, he added.

Top Chinese security experts, including Xu Liping, the director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences ‘ Center for Southeast Asian Studies, have urged the Philippines to “review the local disputes with a rational perspective, acknowledging that the so-called purchase of any weapons may either be beneficial nor have any significance.”

According to Ang Xiao, deputy director of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations ‘ Institute of Maritime Strategy Studies, the Philippines is “playing victim” and relying on the American weapons system because” the Philippines has no other better way to pursue its illegal claim because it lacks sufficient military capacity to carry out provocations.”

The Marcos Jr. administration is committed to modernizing the country’s armed forces and adopting a more assertive stance in neighboring waters, despite its relatively small military arsenal.

Following decades of domestic insurgency operations, the nation released the Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept ( CADC ) earlier this year to emphasize its strategic reorientation toward external security threats.

For Teodoro, it’s time for the Philippines, which is expected to allocate as much as US$ 36 billion for military modernization over the next decade, to adopt a more proactive defense posture.

” I do believe that we need to put in a lot of]military ] infrastructure in]our ] eastern seaboard]for ] air and naval basing”, he told media, referring to the country’s plans to place missile systems and advanced military facilities across its eastern shores facing the Western Pacific as well.

The potential acquisition of the Typhon missile system is just one more important step in Manila’s strategy to become a military and geopolitical force in the Indo-Pacific. The incoming Trump 2.0 administration’s will likely find this to be grating in the midst of an intensified great power conflict in Asia.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

US getting military part right – and still losing the Pacific – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: November 13, 2024

In: Asia

A recent Wall Street Journal&nbsp, article&nbsp, describes the US Air Force’s moved efforts to restore older World War Two airports in the Pacific and to get other services in the region. This is a good point.

By combining the Air Force’s limited number of large bases in Japan, South Korea, and Guam with smaller ones spread out throughout the region, the Air Force’s Agile Combat Employment (ACE ) program aims to make China’s rocket force more difficult.

Spreading out makes it easier to attack from a variety of angles, which makes things more difficult for the People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) to reach the Pacific. Similar techniques are being implemented by the other US companies throughout the area.

It’s great the US government is paying attention to the Pacific region&nbsp, after largely ignoring it for 50 times. Additionally, it is crucial to create tactics for scattered operations and build military equipment.

However, the Chinese have not been standing however. They ‘ve&nbsp, studied&nbsp, World War Two, understand the importance of landscape and have been insinuating themselves into the place for generations. &nbsp,

Their goal is to obliterate Americans while laying the groundwork for their own military appearance and increased political and economic impact, including through dual-use system.

Following are a few instances of the US focusing on defense infrastructure while the PRC sought to undermine it through social conflict.

Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands ( CNMI ), USA

The Americans are making a drive to recover Tinian’s ancient and proper airports. The course of World War Two was altered by the wave of B-29 bombings from Tinian to the Enola Gay. &nbsp,

Tinian is a CNMI US place. How did a game affiliated with China obtain permission to move military equipment and supplies through Tinian’s bay? &nbsp,

The Chinese may make great use of this, and any qualified intelligence services can do so. A resort affiliated with the game has a fantastic view of the maritime approach as a reward.

On nearby Saipan, even part of CNMI, China-tied company objectives are pushing to shift the presidency closer to China. This is n’t new. &nbsp,

An attempt to construct a training facility on an island up the chain was hampered by a Chinese casino’s ( now closed ) demise. How? Wealth was lavishly distributed throughout “environmental organizations” and government circles.

Federated States of Micronesia ( FSM)

In Yap status in FSM, the US Air Force is constructing a$ 400 million airport. On another area in Yap condition, the Chinese are constructing their own. Only for commerce, of training.

Palau

In addition to the US installing over-the-horizon sensor as part of a local missile defense system, there are well-known Chinese investments in property in ironically very strategic locations.

Also, the PRC is suddenly spreading money and influence around to maneuver&nbsp, a more” Chinese-friendly” leadership into place– if not the president, then at least the legislature. &nbsp,

The intention is not just to “militarize” Taiwan and use the tale that the US is “militarizing” the territories to reduce, if not eliminate, the US footprint.

Republic of Kiribati

The PRC is angling to restore a former US airport on Kanton, one of Kiribati’s territories, 1, 900 km from Hawaii. &nbsp, After again– simply for tourism. &nbsp,

A agreement between the US and the US should stop this. Anyone cares. What did D. C. do? &nbsp, Send in the Marines? No, it, along with Australia, has said it will&nbsp, fund&nbsp, a fresh wharf for Kanton. A thank-you word should be sent by Beijing.

Australia

The US and allied forces are building more airports and fuel depots. All in fine, despite the government of Australia’s efforts to re-establish commerce with China and its contention that it can become a friend and offer them lobsters and wine.

Beijing has more liquidity the more Canberra wants that business. And the donor-dependent political elite appears to be actually interested in seeing that business grow more than anything else.

East Bali

The Chinese have their claws in East Bali to the north. The US just finished a 10,000-foot runway – that could have been done in 2010 when the government practically begged for it. There’s no guarantee this airstrip won’t eventually be a gift for China.

Solomon Islands

The Chinese and the pro-China government have reached an agreement that allows for the implementation of Chinese forces to protect Chinese residents and significant projects and to stop legal dissention in the nation where so many Americans died at Guadalcanal and Iron Bottom Sound. They are renovating a significant interface and are also installing Huawei buildings around the nation.

And plans are underway for China to expand the nation’s main airport, Henderson Field, which was vital to Marine protection in 1942. And it still matters today as it did in the past.

The US has wasted or ignored opportunities to establish foundations in the Asia-Pacific area over the past 15 times, and the Chinese have not wasted that opportunity.

Although the US’s current military efforts are effective, one could still get the military part correctly if not given to China’s decades-long social battle strategy in the Pacific area, which is undermining both the US appearance and local support for it.

What is social battle? It is'” the work of all the means at a world’s command, quick of war, to accomplish its nationwide objectives”.

This includes financial, economic, diplomatic, alliance building, “propaganda”, intelligence and even the&nbsp, employment of military forces ( without shooting ), as explained in a 1948 policy planning memorandum that prepared the US to fight and ultimately win the Cold War.

In China’s event, it includes corruption that greases the whole thing, along with drug smuggling, computer problems, use of structured offense and the like. So, for instance, as for taking Taiwanese funds in the Pacific islands, there is no downside risk. And almost none in Washington, DC, sometimes.

The result of this is that the Chinese have transformed a location that was once increasingly pro-US and West-leaning into a place where pro-China constituencies are almost everywhere and occasionally have political influence.

The Chinese understand social battle. The leader of the local Chinese firm relationship, fishing company, or timber company definitely has more real power than USINDOPACOM’s leader. He’s there all the day – controlling.

The US government should have and implement its own democratic war campaign, which could include nation-to-nation policies like preferential business policies and also targeted strategies to combat corruption, in addition to blocking and countering the PRC’s social warfare campaign.

During the Cold War, we were great at it, but it seems like we have largely forgotten what social conflict is now. Additionally, it appears that the State Department does n’t include it in the job description. &nbsp, &nbsp,

But ACE is well and fine. As is the US tuberculous curiosity. But the defense part is just piece of what’s required. In a few times, Congress needs to awaken the person who will be secretary of state.

What is social war? What strategy do you have for democratic conflict? &nbsp, Present it to us. If he or she ca n’t answer or has no plan…. present them the pavement.

Visit the USINDOPACOM commander to inquire about political conflict. &nbsp, If he says it’s someone else’s responsibility…show him the pavement as effectively.

For someone to claim this is someone else’s problem, there are too many Americans killed in the Pacific War 80 years earlier.

With type authority, this article originally appeared in And Magazine. Read the original below.

SLAPP turns good people into criminals in Thailand – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: November 13, 2024

In: Asia

Thailand’s harsh criminal defamation laws have already claimed my life twice.

After working as a journalist and advocate for more than ten years, I think the only way to abolish Thailand’s SLAPP ( Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Participation ) is to repeal the criminal defamation laws.

A legitimate program that needs to be made as simple as possible will only become more complicated by anti-Slapp regulations. I’m of the opinion that other governments have better answers, but I think Thailand needs to abolish the criminal defamation rules if it wants to embrace true freedom of speech.

Civil slander is plenty. It makes it possible for those who believe they have been unfairly treated to pursue legal assistance. However, when someone is accused of slander, they are immediately made to become” scammers,” with the sole intention of improving Thailand.

Ten years ago, a coworker and I were sued by the powerful Royal Thai Navy, and I was officially declared a” criminal.” Rather of fleeing to another country, we stayed. We fought in judge, and won the case.

Our publication of a Pulitzer Prize-winning article from a Reuters set on human trafficking was over after the Phuketwan test. The army decided to pursue the little folks over Reuters, which has ten thousand times more visitors than Phuketwan.

Due to our success, the rules made it impossible to file a lawsuit for both computer crimes and criminal defamation. But in the 10 times since that event, many journalists, activists and human rights supporters have been sued in Thailand and have been turned into” thieves” without being found guilty.

Three years ago, I was sued by an elected local formal, and I once more became a fugitive. I found a corruption scandal while serving as a volunteer community advocate in Nakhon Ratchasima ( Korat ). I discovered that others had been squandering millions of ringgit to help poor producers.

In numerous Twitter posts, I made the village residents aware of what had happened and informed them of their freedom. I expected the institution involved to be pleased, but rather, the banks covered up the fraud of its own money.

The elected local official claimed that he was suing because some of my articles were “personal and political” rather than the incident. I was charged with three counts before the prosecution, and some weeks after.

The elected regional national then brought legal action against me six more days after my conviction was overturned. Authorities once more handed these allegations to the prosecution without conducting thorough inquiries because it was” their duty.”

Because the costs were presented in four situations, which would have required four trials, my lawyers submitted a surrender to the prosecution this time.

A top statewide official chose to drop one charge instead of the six that the prosecution wanted to drop. But five charges were dropped, but I am also a” criminal”. The trial’s scheduled time has not yet been determined, which is likely to be in 2026.

Every action I have taken as a blogger and activist over the years has been aimed at improving Thailand and making it a better place for everyone. I’m still here, labeled a crime without any supporting facts and subject to numerous hardships until the awaited trial is over.

Ironically, the cost relates to a tag. A judge will likely decide whether a tag can be slanderous for the first time ever. I think we all know the truth.

But I face yet another legal battle for doing the correct item in an under-educated planting area and for trying to improve the lives of the people. By repealing the fugitive defamation laws as soon as possible, I had work to improve freedom of expression and lessen SLAPP situations as a member of Thailand’s state.

That needs to occur for the good of the country, its popularity and its members.

*Text of a statement to be delivered by Chutima Sidasathian to mark the conclusion of a three-day local event cosponsored by the UN on November 12. SLAPP is the subject of a global plan.

Chutima Sidasathian won local awards for uncovering Thailand’s brutal “pushbacks” in 2008-2009 and won regional awards for investigative reporting and human rights. In the years that followed, she came to be regarded as Thailand’s first officer in reporting human prostitution. Eventually, she co-produced the video” Ghost Fleet,” which exposed slavery on Thai ships.

China’s new hypersonic weapon could black out US, Taiwan – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: November 13, 2024

In: Asia

China’s fresh GDF-600 fast weapon could redefine war with its strong, multi-target strike and electric assault capabilities, posing a serious challenge to Taiwan and US forces in the Pacific.

The Guangdong Aerodynamic Research Academy ( GARA ) at the Zhuhai Airshow unveiled its new concept for an unpowered hypersonic boost-glide weapon this month, according to The War Zone.

The fast car, which can achieve speeds up to Mach 7 and ranges between 200 and 600 meters, can take several submunitions, including sonic rockets, drones and loitering munitions.

The report says that the GDF-600’s ability to release these payloads mid-flight enhances its operational versatility, allowing it to conduct kinetic strikes, electronic warfare ( EW ) and reconnaissance across multiple targets.

The War Zone does, however, point out that payload deployment at fast speeds still poses major technical problems. The report underscores China’s continuing investment in fast systems, contrasting with the US government’s challenges with similar techniques.

The document says that the GDF-600, if realized, was substantially boost China’s fast army, especially in local circumstances like the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea.

EW weapons could potentially interfere with enemy radar and communications, making protective responses more difficult and time-consuming. The HGV’s ability to neutralize military targets would also be enhanced by the mid-flight rollout of EW assets.

On the type of EW weapons that could be deployed on the GDF-600, a June 2021 report by the EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security states that non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse ( NNEMP ) weapons, or radio-frequency weapons, are accessible, affordable and can be constructed using commercially available components, making them a viable tool for state and non-state actors alike.

It says such weapons, small enough to fit in a backpack or mountain on drones and trucks, could remove vital system components, leading to protracted power outages. Military bases, which rely on the human network for 99 % of their power, could experience nationwide trickling blackouts if one NNEMP attack hits fewer than 100 converter substations.

According to the report, countries like Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are working on developing or having NNEMP functions, with some countries having the potential to start attacks using robots or tankers.

It says the ease of NNEMP merger, and the little labor required for implementation, raise the risk of these weapons being used against US infrastructure, potentially catastrophic both civil and military systems in an extraordinary “blackout warfare” scenario.

China’s use of NNEMP weapons may resolve a potential conflict with EMP weapons. In a July 2024 article for the Henry M. Jackson School of International Studies, Tin Pak mentions how China views high-altitude electromagnetic pulse ( HEMP ) weapons as a form of cyber warfare.

This could lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons, which have significant HEMP effects. The same results could be obtained by using an NNEMP weapon without introducing a nuclear escalation risk.

In a March 2024 Proceedings article, James Anderson mentions that China might choose to launch an NNEMP” shock and awe” attack on Taiwan to cripple its own-governing island’s communication networks, delaying Taiwan’s morale in the process, and possibly putting its leaders in capitulation.

However, in April 2023, Asia Times&nbsp reported that Taiwan has raised concerns about a potential Chinese invasion by fortifying a crucial missile command center against HEMP attacks.

The Taiwanese Navy has reinforced the Gangping Camp in New Taipei City’s Sanzhi District, a critical facility for the Haifeng Brigade’s anti-ship missile unit, to withstand HEMP attacks.

The facility has a shielding room built to withstand the US military’s nuclear protection requirements, which can lower electromagnetic wave force from 50, 000 volts per meter to just 5 volts per meter.

As with Taiwan, the US military faces a significant threat from an EMP attack. Joshua Owen mentions that the US military would face significant operational challenges in the wake of a military-reliant civilian electric grid in an article from February 2023 Proceedings.

Owen says communication systems, vehicles, and other critical equipment could be rendered inoperable, severely hampering command and control capabilities. He highlights, in particular, the vulnerability of military bases, which lack sufficient hardening against EMPs, and the potential for a long-term blackout to disrupt logistics, food and water supplies.

He points out that the need for proactive measures to counteract such attacks is highlighted by the lack of preparation and the possibility of human desperation and chaos.

Additionally, Ronald McKinney Jr discusses the significant threat that EMP attacks on crucial US infrastructure in a February 2024 article for Wild Blue Yonder.

McKinney Jr says the US power grid, telecommunications, water supply and other essential services are particularly vulnerable. He points out that widespread chaos and economic harm could result from a significant EMP event that would temporarily disable these systems.

He demonstrates how interconnected US infrastructure is, causing a cascading effect that could lead to a broader systemic collapse when one or more of its key components fail.

He also makes note of the possibility of a similar disruptive attack, which might include nuclear detonations, sophisticated cyberattacks, or NNEMP weapons.

However, Jeff Schogol mentions that because of the high likelihood of US nuclear retaliation, an adversary is unlikely to use an EMP attack alone in a Task &amp, Purpose article from September 2022. Given the significant escalation risks, he claims an EMP attack would most likely be a part of a larger nuclear assault.

Schogol identifies the risks of an EMP attack, noting that the damage to electronic devices would depend on a number of factors, including their protection and orientation. He points out that while an EMP could cause significant power outages, the extent of long-term damage is uncertain.

He adds that the US military regularly conducts exercises to ensure that it can maintain command and control in the event of an EMP attack, with facilities like Cheyenne Mountain Space Force Station built to withstand such circumstances. This includes USNORTHCOM, NORAD, and NORAD.

Schogol concludes that despite the seriousness of an EMP attack, its efficacy and potential use alone are questioned.

Another Trump administration may not be a disaster for Ukraine – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: November 12, 2024

In: Asia

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the president of Ukraine, was one of the first world leaders to address Donald Trump following his win on November 5. Congratulating the US president-elect, Zelenskyy expressed trust in the “potential for stronger participation” between the two countries.

Some are less certain. Trump’s defeat has stoked ambiguity over Washington’s commitment to help Ukraine repel Soviet invaders in the wake of his lukewarm attitude toward NATO, his condemnation of the volume of US support being sent to Ukraine, and his vows to close the ongoing battle in Eastern Europe.

As an expert on Eastern Europe, I am aware of these problems. However, I also provide a counterargument: Kyiv might never actually benefit from a Trump White House.

NATO’s quest to shop Russia remains constant

It is common to speak Trump described as separatist, political and an anti-interventionist on the world stage. He has promoted such a viewpoint through states, such as that the US may ignore its obligation to defend a NATO member from a Russian attack if the member nation did n’t meet its commitments for defence spending.

However, established facts and former Republican positions undermine for speech.

The US Congress passed republican legislation that would have prohibited a senator from reversing their unilateral support for European security and stability in December 2023.

Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican co-sponsor of that bill, has recently come out as a significant Trump confidant, and according to studies, Rubio will be appointed as Trump’s secretary of state.

The US and Europe remain each other’s most important areas. In light of the impact of volatility in Europe on both the US and the world, the United States will become very motivated to keep playing a key role in European security.

In addition, there is nothing to indicate that the incoming administration may view China as the main risk to the US from those in Obama, Biden, and even Trump. Vladimir Putin’s martial engagements in Ukraine have been supported by Beijing.

Washington would be strengthened in Asia if it continued to cooperate with friends in Europe. Strong defense cooperation, such as coordinating with the British to create submarines for Australia, helps the US plan to store and have China’s threat in the Pacific. In times of crisis, continuing that cooperation would also show to US allies in Asia that it can provide reliable protection partners, such as Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.

Trump is n’t as comfortable with Putin as he’s often portrayed as being

Trump’s alleged closeness with Putin has received a lot of praise. In the run-up to the poll, Trump insisted that, should he succeed, he would send peace to Ukraine yet before he was inaugurated and called Putin” savvy”, a “genius”, for the Ukrainian war. On his part, Putin congratulated Trump on his win, praising him for being” gutsy” when a gunman tried to assassinate him. Moscow has even indicated that it is prepared to speak with the newly elected Democratic president.

Trump’s true policy toward Russia during his first name may have been more aggressive than these statements suggest. However, it is persuasive that the Trump presidency was more hawkish toward Putin than the Obama-led one.

For instance, Trump refused to give Ukrainers anti-tank rockets despite the Obama administration’s protests. Moreover, in 2018, the U. S. withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, citing the preceding violations of the agreement by Russia. In comparison, when President Obama first alleged that Russia had tested a ground-launched boat weapon in 2014, he had chosen to stay away from the agreement.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, referred to the Trump administration’s agreement removal move as” a pretty risky step”. The US was stifled from developing new weaponry as a result of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which had also tied Washington’s interests in the Pacific corporate conflict with China.

Finally, in 2019, Trump signed the Protecting Europe’s Energy Security Act, which included restrictions halting the development of the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 pipeline immediately connecting Russia to Germany, via the Baltic Sea. The Russian government has since called the pipeline an “economic and power blockade,” but a sabotage attack in 2022 has since caused it to be useless. The second Trump administration to hinder Russia took 52 policy steps to sign the act.

In comparison, the Biden administration waived Nord Stream 2 pipeline restrictions in 2021, just to reinstate them on Feb. 23, 2022 – one moment before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

‘ Drill, child, drill’ did hurt Russian oil

About three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin’s combat system also runs on energy revenues. Countries continue to buy from Russia despite previously unrestricted sanctions from the West that aim to restrict sales of Russian oil. For instance, India has surpassed Russia in terms of shipping seaborne crude oil.

And here a Trump policy not aimed directly at Russia may, in fact, harm Russian interests.

Trump has repeatedly promised to start a new wave of oil and gas drilling on American soil. And while it may take some time for this to come through to lower global prices, US production, which is already the world’s top crude oil producer, has the potential to have an impact.

Trump’s resumption of the White House might lead to stricter sanctions against Iran from the US, which would lessen Tehran’s ability to sell weapons to Russia. Since the beginning of the Ukrainian invasion in February 2022, Iran has backed Russia both militarily and diplomatically. And since 2020, Iran’s revenue from oil exports nearly quadrupled, from US$ 16 billion to$ 53 billion in 2023, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Predicting what Trump, a notably unpredictable leader, will do in power is difficult. Since US foreign policy can be a slow-moving beast, no one should anticipate major breakthroughs or surprises. However, his record contradicts what observers have suggested: Ukraine’s future may not be in good hands with his victory.

Tatsiana Kulakevich is an affiliate professor at the University of South Florida’s Institute for Russian, European, and Eurasian Studies. She is also an associate professor of instruction in the School of Interdisciplinary Global Studies.

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Biden funding request will tell the tale for Ukraine’s future – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: November 12, 2024

In: Asia

President Joe Biden will beg Congress for more funding for Ukraine, according to Jake Sullivan, the national safety council’s leader. &nbsp, The death of this demand, if it is really put forward, will likely be a bellwether&nbsp, for Ukraine’s potential.

No exact numbers have been provided for a request for money from Ukraine by the White House or the NSC thus far.

With a still-family-friendly Congress, Biden and his officials hope to pass a assess for Ukraine. &nbsp, It is, however, not at all sure he can become powerful.

If the estimate is submitted and rejected, or just not acted on, Zelensky in Ukraine may be faced with a tough three-way choice: deal with the Russians, come down in flames or withdraw from office.

The present Congress has shown a respectable support for Ukraine, having supported at least one and possibly both chambers under Democratic control in January. &nbsp, Past actions have passed both the Senate, which now is controlled by Democrats but will be Republican-dominated starting in January, and the House of Representatives, which is led by Republicans and expected to continue that approach. &nbsp,

Trump’s support for the president will be a crucial factor yet before he takes business. Trump may question his Republican colleagues to just drop to proceed a measure in the House, largely postponing its consideration until his administration takes office if he opposes more Ukraine aid, which is a real possibility.

According to this article, support for Ukraine is still accessible for roughly$ 3 billion in funding approved by Congress.

In January of this year, Biden requested an additional&nbsp,$ 60 billion &nbsp, in emergency funding to support Ukraine. This act was part of the&nbsp,” supplemental investing” &nbsp, bundle, which also included funding for various government interests such as disaster relief, border security and defense investing. The&nbsp,$ 60 billion &nbsp, was particularly allocated for Ukraine’s ongoing military and humanitarian assistance.

The essential parts of the invoice included:

$ 24 billion &nbsp, in&nbsp, military aid, including ammunition, weapons systems ( fighter jets, air defense systems, etc ), training and logistics support,
$ 14 billion &nbsp, in&nbsp, economic aid&nbsp, to stabilize Ukraine’s economy and help maintain essential government functions,
$ 8 billion &nbsp, in&nbsp, humanitarian assistance&nbsp, for refugees, displaced persons, and medical aid, and
additional funding for energy system, restoration and bolstering Ukraine’s long-term security features.

Voting in the House of Representatives

The&nbsp, House&nbsp, of Representatives, particularly under the leadership of&nbsp, Speaker Mike Johnson&nbsp, ( who took over after Kevin McCarthy’s ousting in October 2023 ), faced fierce debates over the Ukraine funding. By January 2024 criticism from within the&nbsp, Republican Party, specifically from more traditional parties, &nbsp, had solidified around ending or reducing US aid to Ukraine.

Vote outcome: The&nbsp, House voted 216-212&nbsp, to approve the$ 60 billion Ukraine funding package as part of a broader supplemental funding bill.

Republican criticism: A considerable number of&nbsp, Republican&nbsp, people voted against the support offer, especially those from the&nbsp, Freedom Caucus&nbsp, and other conservatives who opposed continued international investing. They argued that US national priorities should be prioritized over domestic issues like debt reduction, inflation, and border security.
Democratic support: Most&nbsp, Democrats&nbsp, voted in favor of the package, with Ukraine aid being a central issue for them as part of their broader foreign policy priorities.

The vote in the House was &nbsp, extremely close. The administration made the claim that Ukraine was triumphing in the war at the time of the vote. The national security community holds the position that Ukraine will have to negotiate with Moscow, and that claim is no longer valid.

Senate vote

The&nbsp, Senate, which has traditionally been more supportive of Ukraine’s defense efforts, passed the same$ 60 billion aid package with greater bipartisan support, though there were still some Republicans who voted against it.

Vote outcome: The&nbsp, Senate voted 74-22&nbsp, in favor of the bill, with&nbsp, bipartisan support&nbsp, largely coming from the&nbsp, Democratic caucus&nbsp, and moderate Republicans.
Republican opposition: While the opposition was still significant in the Senate, especially from conservative Republicans such as Senators&nbsp, Rand Paul, &nbsp, Josh Hawley and&nbsp, J. D. Vance, who have become vocal critics of U. S. involvement in the Ukraine conflict, the majority of Republicans voted in favor of the package.
J. D. Vance is now the Vice-President Elect.
Democratic support: Most&nbsp, Senate Democrats&nbsp, voted in favor of the bill, consistent with their support for Ukraine.

If Republicans were to win more money for Ukraine, it’s not clear whether that would be a majority in the Senate. Trump might argue that he needs the most control over Ukraine and ask that the Senate and House prevent the Senate from approving any funding measure at this time.

Money bills traditionally have to originate in the House of Representatives. The Senate might never consider the Biden request if the House moves a funding measure.

Consequences

Under current conditions, President Biden’s funding request for Ukraine is unlikely to be approved, at least not now. &nbsp, Even if the money becomes available, the US has few weapons it can afford to share with Ukraine. &nbsp, &nbsp,

What weapons do allies occasionally need from the US? &nbsp, For example, in late 2020, the US authorized the sale of 64 ATACMS and 11 HIMARS M142 launchers to Taiwan. &nbsp, Following adjustments to its defense priorities, Taiwan later increased its order, ordering an additional 18 HIMARS systems and raising its ATACMS order from 64 to 84 units.

The first ATACMS missile deliveries for HIMARS have already been made to Taiwan, according to this report. The HIMARS launchers arrived in early November. Other countries including&nbsp, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Morocco also have requested&nbsp, HIMARS and ATACMS missiles. While the Pentagon and White House claim&nbsp, there are enough HIMARS and ATACMS, &nbsp, the fact is that if an actual conflict occurred elsewhere, particularly in the Pacific, HIMARS and ATACMS missiles would be needed.

Likewise there are shortages of anti aircraft systems, missiles for Patriot and ammunition in various calibers .&nbsp, It will take some time, measured in years, to replenish stocks of ammunition and weapons.

The US could hand over its weapon ‘s&nbsp, stockpiles in Europe, but doing so would effectively disarm US troops and weaken NATO crucially. &nbsp, Therefore doing that is highly unlikely.

In the end, Biden’s request is mostly a Hail Mary pass before he is replaced in late January.

Zelensky will undoubtedly realize that American support for Ukraine is at a turning point, and that Washington’s efforts to woo Ukraine wo n’t succeed in getting more. We’re not sure whether that will convince him to talk to the Russians. But as Ukraine is on the verge of collapse, Zelensky may take the diplomatic route, or he may resign.

Former US deputy undersecretary of defense Stephen Bryen is a recognized authority on security strategy and technology. This article originally appeared on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. It is republished with permission.

Rubio brings China Realism to the State Department – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: November 12, 2024

In: Asia

Marco Rubio will be the next Secretary of State in the following Trump presidency, according to press reports.

The senior senator from Florida offers as a vocal China hawk, like the whole of his Democratic gathering, but with a essential difference: In September, Rubio published a 60-page statement,” The World China Made“, with a complete and painstakingly researched study of China’s financial success.

Some observers have already speculated that Nixon’s 1972 China trip might be influenced by the hiring of a seasoned China hawk like Rubio.

According to this theory, Secretary of State Rubio could negotiate with China without making any claims that he would sell out, and Secretary of State Rubio could do the same. Without second-guessing the incoming president’s negotiating strategy with China, Rubio’s published thoughts about China speak for themselves.

Full disclosure: the report cites Asia Times and this writer in particular, including our groundbreaking analysis of China’s export success in the Global South. By creating supply chains for Vietnam, Mexico, India, and other nations for export to the United States, China evaded Trump and Biden tariffs by building factories in third countries.

A bright line divides realists from Utopians among Washington’s China hawks. According to neoconservatives like Dan Blumenthal, well-known figures like Gordon Chang and Peter Zeihan, and real believers like former US Secretary of State and CIA director Michael Pompeo, China is about to collapse, and the US should prepare to do so militarily and economically.

If the US had shut down ZTE, he claimed, he would have led a group of unemployed engineers to march on Beijing and toppled Xi Jinping. A senior official from the first Trump administration told this writer in 2018 that the then-president had made a mistake by agreeing to that deal.

Realists on the other side of the coin may despise China and accuse it of scheming, but they acknowledge that it has made significant progress in both domestic and international trade. Rubio dismisses the utopian vision in the report’s conclusion as the best-informed among the realists:

Commentary on China’s economy swings wildly between extremes. On the one hand, the Chinese economy is often portrayed as deeply troubled, perhaps even on the verge of collapse. Stories in this vein emphasize China’s very high debt burden, slowing growth, distressed real-estate sector, and aging population—all real problems. In an interview with Time magazine in June, President Joe Biden made the claim that China’s economy is “on the brink.” ‘ …

China’s export- and manufacturing-oriented development model may have been successful enough in the short term to push the country toward the cutting-edge of technology, but not enough to enable it to overcome its structural issues over the long term. Many in Washington favor this narrative because it brings back our Cold War victory.

Then, a revolutionary, dynamic, and capitalist United States triumphed over a repressive regime with a dysfunctional, gerontocratic political class and a failed communist economic system incapable of navigating the information age. Our country’s past success has led to a similar triumph, which is tempting to believe. We win, they lose. But an invincible belief in one’s own success is a recipe for complacency. And increasingly, this belief is at odds with the evidence in front of our faces.

Let’s say the United States ca n’t be complacent about Communist China if this report serves as a message. Think-tank scholars and economists may bank on China’s coming collapse. The wager is being flipped by Beijing. It believes that manufacturing, exports, and ‘ new quality productive forces’ are the keys to regime survival and indeed to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. It thinks that modern technology and production will help it maintain its communist system while achieving wealth.

It has succeeded so far in establishing an alternative development path. But suppose today is the high-water mark of China’s power. Even in such a promising world, the CCP will continue to be a real, existential threat to American workers and industry for years to come. Additionally, Communist China will continue to be a formidable adversary unlike anything the US has ever faced. The CCP’s project’s critics, who claim that it is doomed to fail, should bear the burden of proof at this point.

Some highlights from Rubio’s report include:

In terms of industrial robot installations, China is the world’s top installers, with more installed in 2022 than the rest of the world combined.
Given the size of China’s manufacturing workforce and wage levels in comparison to those of the United States, China’s robot density exceeded our own in 2021, a remarkable achievement.
China’s extensive 5G telecommunications network, which consists of more than 3 million 5G base stations, makes it a leader in smart manufacturing.
Chinese entrepreneurs are assisting China in overcoming its reliance on imported tools and robots. Despite record installations, China’s imports of industrial robots have declined the past two years. This is due to Chinese companies ‘ steadily expanding business, which are thought to have had a 35.5 % domestic market share. share in 2022, up from 17.5 % a decade ago. China’s position is even stronger in the incredibly fragmented machine-tool market, wherein Chinese manufacturers will account for nearly a third of global production in 2022.
Chinese businesses are establishing sophisticated factories that will enable them to enter foreign markets and halt criticism of export practices.

Rubio’s message is that the United States must make extraordinary efforts to stay ahead of China and that it should n’t believe that a pen-waving device can stop this technological behemoth.

It is not difficult to draw any conclusions about foreign policy based on this analysis.

Follow David P Goldman on X at @davidpgoldman

Want to win the AI revolution? Study up on cybernetics – Asia Times

By: Bolen C

On: November 12, 2024

In: Asia, Technology

Significant differences in attitudes toward artificial intelligence ( AI ) are found in advanced and developing economies, according to a recent study from Queensland University and KPMG. The difference between K-12 education and AI may be filled by teaching it as a subset of cybernetics. In a larger Business 4.0 environment, Cybernetics declassifies AI and situates it.

Artificial Knowledge raises some questions, mainly in the Western world. Does it kill work? Can it be abused and does it have ethical guidelines? Had AI eventually rule our lives?

Most people agree that AI will transform cultures, which raises another question: Why is AI not a compulsory subject in major knowledge? According to experts, 65 % of today’s students will work in occupations that have not yet been created.

No fresh, people are concerned about the impact of new technologies. Weavers in France and England ( Luddites ) opposed the development of tools like the spinning jenny in the 19th century. They feared that their art would be valued less by the machines. Blacksmiths who were experts in horseshoeing ( farriers ) in the US feared that automobiles would sabotage their jobs.

AI is used in a variety of professions, including stevedores and skilled individuals. Today’s kids are acquiring information that could be severely undervalued by AI when they are ready to enter the workplace. According to some experts, 65 % of today’s students will work in occupations that have not yet been created.

Not all students should learn computer password in order to prepare for a world where AI is increasingly important. Rather, students should be taught the foundational ( cybernetic ) principles underlying AI and the larger ( Industry 4.0) framework in which AI will be deployed.

Although the development of AI has altered how we perceive, evaluate, and interact with it, individuals is frequently struggle to comprehend its roots and ideas.

By integrating the principles of robotics into K-12 training, individuals gain a more solid basis in understanding AI concepts, their applications, and social implications. In today’s society, cognitive science is crucial for understanding and teaching AI, which established a comprehensive strategy to linear technology through the work of philosophers like Gottfried Leibniz, George Boole, and Claude Shannon.

The story of the nature of linear computing

One of the first frameworks to offer a clear view of technology and technology was cybernetics, which came into being. Rooted in the thoughts of Leibniz, Boole, and Shannon, robotics built a foundation based on the exploitation of linear information—essentially, people and zeros—that allowed for structured, natural processes.

Boole created Boolean algebra, a codified system that used natural operators, while Leibniz created a linear system for presenting complicated concepts in a streamlined format. Eventually, Shannon established the foundation for online computing by demonstrating how binary systems could be effectively used in electronic circuits.

Understanding this heritage provides kids with traditional context and a logical framework for comprehending computational processes in K-12 settings. By demonstrating how plain building blocks, such as logic gates, combine to create complex programs, the AI is rooted in binary-Boolean operations, which de-mystifies difficult concepts.

These thoughts likewise make AI’s” thinking” approach feel more substantial and less transparent. Rather than seeing AI as an almost magical knowledge, students may begin to understand AI as a method of organized rules, following the same reasoning that powers computers, and discover how AI decision-making builds upon these principles.

Cybernetics is not only about computing, it’s about control and feedback. The term originates from the Greek kybernetes, meaning” steersman” or “governor”, emphasizing the idea of systems regulating themselves based on input and feedback.

This principle has profound implications for AI and its applications, and it aligns well with how humans naturally learn—through observation, response, and adaptation. The three-step cybernetic process—plan, quantify, and steer—essentially describes a feedback loop where actions are monitored, measured, and adjusted based on the outcomes they produce.

This cycle is crucial for understanding how sophisticated systems “learn” and “fine” their responses.

In K-12 classrooms, students can apply this concept through practical exercises. Students could create simple robots that follow a line or avoid obstacles with sensor feedback, allowing them to observe cybernetic principles in action, for instance, in a robotics project.

These exercises can demonstrate how a system takes input ( like a sensor reading ), adjusts its path accordingly, and repeats the process. By understanding that AI, in essence, is a complex network of such feedback mechanisms, students gain insights into how AI operates, makes decisions, and even “learns” from past actions.

From the simplest machine learning algorithms to the more complex neural networks, feedback and regulation are essential to all types of intelligent systems.

By introducing students to cybernetics ‘ regulatory principles, educators can give students a practical understanding of AI’s structure—showing that AI is n’t an abstract black box but a systematic approach to receiving, analyzing, and responding to data.

Furthermore, this understanding can also help students critically examine the potential implications of autonomous systems and AI in real-world applications, leading to more informed and responsible use of technology.

Binary logic

Bridging the gap between abstract ideas and practical understanding is one of AI education’s biggest challenges. A basic knowledge of cybernetic principles, specifically binary-Boolean logic, makes AI far more accessible.

Binary-Boolean logic, which defines all computational processes in terms of “on” ( 1 ) and “off” ( 0 ) states, is not only foundational to computer science but is also at the core of AI. This logic governs everything from straightforward computer calculations to complex AI decision-making procedures.

When students understand how Boolean logic operates, they are better equipped to grasp how AI works, especially at its decision-making level. Boolean logic, for instance, allows students to visualize decision trees and straightforward machine learning models under the guidance of “if-then” statements used frequently in programming and AI.

Suppose K-12 educators introduce cybernetics ‘ binary-Boolean logic as a preliminary step. In that situation, students are more likely to comprehend why certain outcomes are reached in accordance with a set of rules and how AI makes decisions.

Furthermore, cybernetics provides students with a lens to view AI as a form of self-learning and self-regulating system. Just as a thermostat “learns” and adjusts temperature based on external conditions, AI systems can analyze data, adjust algorithms, and improve performance over time.

This self-improvement capability aligns closely with the feedback-based governance that cybernetics emphasizes, making cybernetics a natural foundation for AI concepts. When students see AI as a structured, logical process of regulation and adaptation, the mystique around AI fades, and they can approach the subject more confidently and curiously.

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In teaching AI, cybernetics opens the door to a number of theoretical and practical advantages. First, it offers a structured approach that aligns with how students naturally learn—through planning, experimenting, and iterating. Students will likely not be intimidated by complex AI concepts because they view them as approachable and instead view AI as an extension of this well-known process.

Second, cybernetics lays the groundwork for understanding AI and related areas such as data science, robotics, and systems engineering. A foundation in cybernetics would lead to a deeper understanding of STEM fields because all of these fields depend on feedback mechanisms and binary logic.

Education can provide students with a coherent foundation for furthering their technical and engineering interests by starting with cybernetic principles.

Critical thinking and ethical awareness are promoted in an AI curriculum grounded in cybernetic principles. As students learn about AI through the lens of cybernetics, they are naturally encouraged to consider questions about feedback, autonomy, and responsibility.

For instance, if a system self-regulates, what are the limits of that regulation? What happens when AI systems make decisions with real-world consequences? By framing AI within cybernetics, educators can encourage a more thoughtful and morally grounded perspective on technology.

By delving into computational concepts, putting emphasis on regulatory feedback, and creating a binary-Boolean logic framework, cybernetics serves as the ideal framework for the introduction of AI in K-12 education. In addition to being a theoretical framework for the creation of AI, cybernetics is a practical and accessible method for understanding how intelligent systems operate.

By grounding AI education in cybernetic principles, students gain a logical, intuitive, and structured framework for understanding AI as a regulation, decision-making, and learning process. Cybernetics can help prepare young learners for the future of intelligent systems by enabling them to learn AI and foster a generation of technologically literate, ethical, and critical thinkers.

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The story of the nature of linear computing

Binary logic

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