China’s new Silk Road might go through Syria, skipping Russia – Asia Times

After Hezbollah was defeated by Israeli activities in Lebanon in September and Donald Trump’s election as Republican presidential candidate in the US in early November, simple changes have occurred in Sino-Russian relations. &nbsp,

Some Chinese critics believe that the Assad regime’s fall on December 8 made the differences between China and Russia’s political interests wider. &nbsp,

According to all these instances, Dmitry Medvedev, president of the United Russia party and deputy president of Russia’s Security Council, visited Beijing on December 12.

Medvedev was reportedly presented with a letter signed by Putin by the Taiwanese president after meeting with him. The letter, according to the statement, expressed Putin’s joy over a new visit to China on the situation of the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China’s formation of diplomatic relations with Russia. &nbsp,

However, according to Chinese experts, Medvedev’s most recent meeting with Liu Jianchao, a top Chinese diplomat and current head of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP ) International Department, should be watched. &nbsp,

Medvedev stated to Liu during their meeting that” Russia is ready to begin negotiations with Ukraine if Kyiv takes into account the challenges of today and the suggestions made by Putin.”

According to some spectators, Medvedev’s talk suggests that Beijing is only interested in maintaining business relations with Europe in the Trump 2.0 time while Putin is reluctant to engage in a ceasefire discussion with Kyiv.

A Hebei-based author called” Bo Ge” says in an article published on December 12 that Medvedev’s remark showed that Moscow wants to “maintain its democracy and seek to achieve powerful connection in specific matters” in Russia-China relationships. &nbsp,

Although China and Russia have cooperated on some power and anti-terrorism issues, he claims that their corporate interests are drastically different in terms of political problems related to Middle Eastern and European security concerns. The heavy ice between China and Russia hasn’t been broken by Medvedev’s most recent trip to Beijing.

A Henan-based journalist using the surname” A book retailer in the sea” published an article with the subject” China and Russia didn’t form an alliance, Medvedev has made a decision” on December 12.

He claims that the Syria and Ukraine troubles were discussed at the Liu-Medvedev conference. He claims that the lack of complete control over the new Syrian government may encourage violence and, in turn, harm China’s hobbies in the Middle East. &nbsp, &nbsp,

According to the author, Putin may have written a letter to China and Russia asking for more strategic cooperation to strengthen Moscow’s bargaining positions on the front lines before ability peace negotiations are started by US President-elect Donald Trump, who will take business in the White House on January 20th, 2019. &nbsp,

He reiterates Beijing’s approach that China and Russia does not form an alliance.

Southwestern Silk Road&nbsp,

Beijing may keep a close eye on the social situation in Syria, according to some Chinese critics, but it is only doing it for the sake of it, not to aid Russia. &nbsp,

” Some folks think the decline of Assad’s regime did hurt China’s passions, but really the affair is a great opportunity for China”, a Hong Kong-based blogger writes in an article. ” China’s interests will be hurt only if Syria becomes chaotic” .&nbsp,

He claims that Bashar al-Assad, the former leader of Syria, failed for many years in his efforts to boost the local market and oust anti-government troops and ISIS, making China able to complete the Southern Silk Road’s connection with Europe via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. &nbsp,

He points out that China’s complete direct purchase in Syria was just US$ 13.24 million at the end of 2022, which is a significant drop from the$ 300 billion figure that bloggers have claimed. &nbsp, &nbsp,

” By offering humanitarian aid, China may establish a good relation with the new Palestinian state”, he says. China and Syria can cooperate economically, while China can support their restoration projects it.

A Beijing-based contributor says setting up the Northen Silk Road to join China and Europe via Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland may not be a smart choice for Beijing.

” For then it’s certainly a question of passing through Russia as Sino-Russia relationships are good”, he says. What if, one time, we need to approach Russia for assistance? How much do we have to spend?” he continues, noting that Poland may not be a trustworthy trade partner.

Turkey may slip through the Middle East nation, according to him, but Beijing will likely request a sizable sum of money, he claims. Then, he says, Syria is a new opportunity for China to construct its Silk Road.

Sino-Russia diplomatic deal

In the first 10 weeks of this year, the bilateral trade between China and Russia grew 2.8 % year-on-year to US$ 202 billion, according to the Chinese traditions. Nevertheless, the number dropped 5 % year-on-year to US$ 20.5 billion in November.

China’s exports to Russia also fell 10.5 % year-on-year in November after growing 24.4 % in October.

Due to this, in September, China approved the Rules on Civil-Military Dual-Use Products after G7 countries raised fears in April about Chinese firms ‘ shipments of weapons parts to Russia. In order to avoid US sanctions, the nation earlier this year urged local financial institutions to stop accepting payments from Russia in the renminbi. &nbsp,

As Beijing keeps Moscow at arm’s length, the customs department of Russia’s eastern city of Vladivostok has imposed a 55.65 % tariff on China-made furniture parts since autumn. &nbsp,

The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade announced a plan to gradually raise the country’s “recycling fee” for auto buyers from current levels to 70-85 % by 2030. The fee, which is seen as another form of tariff targeting Chinese vehicles, will increase by 10-20 % from the beginning of 2025. &nbsp,

Read: First salvo of a Russia-China trade war

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AfD’s Krah: Without Jews, Europe ‘intellectually uninteresting’ – Asia Times

Dr. Maximilian Krah is one of the most important figures in Germany’s liberal group, the Other für Deutschland. He addressed Asia Times in response to accusations that AfD and the present a menace to European Jews. David P. Goldman, the assistant director of Asia Times, and I spoke with him in German for a brief period of time.

Asia Times: Dr. Krah, &nbsp, the leader of the Central Council of German Jews, Josef Schuster, had this to state on November 29:” If a group like the Other für Deutschland were to have responsibility for governing Germany, one would have to beg in all seriousness whether Hebrew living in Germany &nbsp, were&nbsp, also feasible. I have looked at every blog on the&nbsp, AfD&nbsp, site concerning Jews and the State of Israel, and without exception they defend Israel’s right to exist and reject racism in Germany. How do you discuss this gap?

Krah: &nbsp, I believe&nbsp, that Schuster is just stuck in a universe that no longer exists. &nbsp, There&nbsp, is no question that, generally speaking, &nbsp, antisemitism&nbsp, was common on the right, while nowadays it is at home on the left. That was genuine in Germany. We see that in Hungary, also. &nbsp, The aged Hungarian appropriate was racist, but that was a long time ago. &nbsp, Today ‘s&nbsp, Viktor Orban is no longer racist, and we&nbsp, see the same thing&nbsp, all&nbsp, over the world.

This has a lot to do with Israel. In 1967, Israel faced opponents who were all armed by Moscow. The Free World’s next wish in the Middle East at the time was Israel. Intelligent liberals in&nbsp, the USA and Western Europe realized that it is absolutely pointless to continue to think of Immigrants as socialists, because&nbsp, they were in fact&nbsp, the only ones fighting socialists, and items have been changing since then. I believe that Schuster is&nbsp, an honorable gentleman, but he is also very&nbsp, out of date, &nbsp, and has not yet &nbsp, grasped&nbsp, that&nbsp, racism has migrated&nbsp, from the right to the left. He claims that we were still in the 1960s. He has veered off from right to left, and he appears to be implying that we will spend another 60 times together. That is unfortunate, &nbsp, but I didn’t alter it. Because people are aware without a doubt that what he is saying is incorrect, no one takes him seriously again.

AT: When I look at the German political environment, I note that Viktor Orban is Israel’s best companion in Europe. Orban quickly invited Netanyahu to Budapest as a host of the Hungarian position when he was charged by the International Criminal Court. Geert Wilders, the head of Holland’s Freedom Party, went so far as to identify the German right-wing events as” German Zionists. Is there any racism left over from the German right?

Krah: &nbsp, There’s always something, and I haven’t set my hand in the fire to exclude that chance. There is no hatred at all at the amount of the group leaders and the plan makers, though. &nbsp, The reality&nbsp, has changed entirely, and for that reason no one holds onto this century-old&nbsp, crazy..

The remaining has embraced hatred, &nbsp, for two factors. Second, Israel is then a strong supporter of the United States, and it is a business market rather than a socialist job: It is anything but communism, where everyone is supposed to live in a community. The next issue, of course, is the remaining ‘s&nbsp, strong&nbsp, aid for emigration. For them, the refugee is a hobby. They want to see the greatest conceivable emigration, especially from the Middle East and North Africa. These are Muslims who are very angry to Israel and, consequently, usually pretty anti-Semitic. The remaining gets tied up in the immigration issue, and refuses to address the issue of immigrant hatred. For these reasons hatred is at home on the left, while none of the leading characters on the right&nbsp, has been affected.

AT: Jewish people in Europe are currently concerned about their physical health. There have been racist demonstrations, attacks on churches and attack against individual Jews. Where does all of this come from? Have&nbsp, their&nbsp, been any problems than can be ascribed to the appropriate wing of European politics?

Krah: There is not a single attack on Jewish institutions that comes from the right, despite the fact that all of these attacks are perpetrated by refugees or by left-wing extreme terrorist organizations affiliated with them. A lone offender wanted to attack a church in Halle. He was never a right-winger&nbsp, but an isolated person who had a computer full of ridiculous ideas but&nbsp, was in no way connected to the&nbsp, AfD&nbsp, or to&nbsp, any&nbsp, right-wing activity. There is not a single attack that is in any way associated with&nbsp, organizations&nbsp, on the political right. And&nbsp, that applies&nbsp, not just in Germany, &nbsp, but&nbsp, across&nbsp, all of Europe. We do not protect synagogues or&nbsp, other&nbsp, Jewish institutions from&nbsp, the&nbsp, political&nbsp, right. We protect them&nbsp, from&nbsp, al-Qaeda, from Islamist violence and from left-wing extremists.

AT: Could you elaborate on the political leaders of Europe who support more Near Eastern immigrants?

Krah: As of now, we are talking about all the politicians who opened the border, for example Angela Merkel, who is a Christian Democrat, that is, from the political center. The only ones who want to close the border are &nbsp, the right. But the Greens, the Social Democrats, the Liberals] Free Democratic Party ] and the Christian Democrats all support open borders, and open borders in Europe means immigration rom Afghanistan, from Syria, from Algeria and from sub-Saharan Africa – that is, from countries that are shaped by Islam, and therefore have problems with the State of Israel and with Jews in general. Only the right wants to close the borders. All the others want to keep them open, some very wide, others a little less, but they all concur, and for this reason it is obvious that they are all to blame for the rise in anti-Semitism. &nbsp,

AT: &nbsp, The&nbsp, AfD, of course, opposes this. &nbsp,

Krah: &nbsp, There is a&nbsp, study out of&nbsp, Denmark about where immigration is economically useful or harmful. &nbsp, immigration from Afghanistan and Syria&nbsp, does not help either economically&nbsp, or culturally. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t individual success stories among these migrants, but in the big picture it is damaging economically as well as culturally. It is particularly bad for the&nbsp, sitiuation&nbsp, of European Jews, who have come under increasing threat.

AT: There is&nbsp, an organization of Jewish members of&nbsp, the AFD. Tell us about this.

Krah: &nbsp, It ‘s&nbsp, is&nbsp, a small group &nbsp, of&nbsp, Jews who are not left-wingers. But in Germany, &nbsp, most Jews are &nbsp, on the&nbsp, left or in the&nbsp, center. That’s understandable for historical reasons, there are very few German Jews left. Many&nbsp, of the Jews living in Germany todays&nbsp, immigrated from the former Soviet Union in the 90s. &nbsp,

AT: &nbsp, You are a committed Christian. The” civilizational” parties of Europe who view Christianity as a pillar of the character of Europe are largely unrepentant toward Jews. Can you elaborate on the Jewish contribution to European civilization from a personal perspective?

Krah: There is&nbsp, a&nbsp, renowned&nbsp, German-Jewish&nbsp, symbiosis. That&nbsp, has something to do with the fact&nbsp, that both&nbsp, the Germans and the Jews had the idea that social advancement was achieved through education. &nbsp, How did one become part of the middle class in Germany? &nbsp, The German’&nbsp, socialization&nbsp, mechanism&nbsp, was the university. Unfortunately, &nbsp, our universities no longer do this, but&nbsp, classically speaking, the Germans&nbsp, achieved&nbsp, success&nbsp, through&nbsp, education and that is exactly what we have in common with the Jews. In the 19th century, the Jews had no power&nbsp, and&nbsp, no influence, but what they&nbsp, had was a high&nbsp, intelligence. &nbsp, If you look at the universities of the&nbsp, German&nbsp, Empire, 20 % &nbsp, of the&nbsp, professors&nbsp, were Jewish, although the&nbsp, Jewish population was 2 % of the total. &nbsp, I believe that over 50 % of the Nobel Prizes that we received were awarded]to Jews]. That was &nbsp, our&nbsp, golden age&nbsp, of&nbsp, German-Jewish symbiosis. &nbsp, That was &nbsp, was &nbsp, then destroyed by the Nazis and that also destroyed the Germans intellectually That is&nbsp, an&nbsp, undisputed&nbsp, fact. If you look at the time of the founder of the empire, Bismarck, his favorite poet was Heinrich Heine. &nbsp, The Nazis tore down Heine’s monuments and&nbsp, banned the recitation of his poems.

The perfection of the classical style in German music was achieved by&nbsp, Felix&nbsp, Mendelssohn Bartholdy, who&nbsp, also&nbsp, brought&nbsp, Bach back into&nbsp, public &nbsp, awareness. &nbsp, And, again, the Nazis ripped down the Mendelssohn monument in Leipzig. Without the Jewish contribution, there would not be a German culture. And I would add that the language of&nbsp, the&nbsp, European Jews, namely Yiddish, is a German dialect.

Judaism&nbsp, was &nbsp, a cultural force&nbsp, in Europe more&nbsp, than&nbsp, a&nbsp, religious one. Jews like Mendelssohn-Bartholdy&nbsp,, Heinrich&nbsp, Heine or&nbsp, Einstein were Reform Jews who had come out of the ghettos and contributed to the social, political and&nbsp, cultural life of Germany and Europe. &nbsp, No&nbsp, they are &nbsp, are &nbsp, no longer there. &nbsp, So&nbsp, Europe is now intellectually uninteresting. &nbsp, It lacks the curiosity, the impulse to learn that the Jews contributed.

The most crucial role was in this exchange between Europe and the Jews. I regret that Mr. Schuster&nbsp, wants to defend the status quo, rather than becoming involved in the process of change that is coming to Europe. &nbsp, Schuster&nbsp, enjoys&nbsp, the&nbsp, privileges&nbsp, that he has &nbsp, been accorded&nbsp, from the&nbsp, Federal&nbsp, Republic&nbsp, of Germany. But&nbsp, apart from the fact that he&nbsp, is&nbsp, against antisemitism, where is the intellectual input from the Central Council of Jews? There is none. Where is the intellectual curiosity, the creativity, that Jews brought to Germany? What is his future view, exactly? &nbsp, This is a pity. Because, regrettably, we are at an impasse in Germany, the political right will need to look into negotiating with Jews in Israel and the United States.

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China likely to help Syria but not help Russia for new Silk Road – Asia Times

After Hezbollah was defeated by Israeli activities in Lebanon in September and Donald Trump’s election as Republican presidential candidate in the US in early November, simple changes have occurred in Sino-Russian relations. &nbsp,

Some Chinese observers believe that the Assad regime’s fall on Syria, a staunch supporter of Russian President Vladimir Putin, even widened the gap between political interests between China and Russia. &nbsp,

According to all these instances, Dmitry Medvedev, president of the United Russia party and deputy president of Russia’s Security Council, visited Beijing on December 12.

Medvedev was reportedly met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and given a notice signed by Putin. The letter, according to the statement, expressed Putin’s joy over a new visit to China on the situation of the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China’s formation of diplomatic relations with Russia. &nbsp,

However, according to Chinese experts, Medvedev’s most recent meeting with Liu Jianchao, a top Chinese diplomat and current head of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP ) International Department, should be watched. &nbsp,

Medvedev stated to Liu during their meeting that” Russia is ready to begin negotiations with Ukraine if Kyiv takes into account the challenges of today and the recommendations made by Putin.”

According to some observers, Medvedev’s talk suggests that Beijing is only interested in maintaining its trade relations with Europe in the Trump 2.0 time while Putin is reluctant to engage in a ceasefire discussion with Kyiv.

A Hebei-based author called” Bo Ge” says in an article published on December 12 that Medvedev’s remark showed that Moscow wants to “maintain its democracy and seek to achieve powerful connection in specific matters” in Russia-China relationships. &nbsp,

Although China and Russia have cooperated on some strength and anti-terrorism issues, he claims that their corporate interests are drastically different in terms of geopolitical problems related to Middle Eastern and European security concerns. Medvedev’s most recent excursion to Beijing has failed to break the tense relationship between Russia and China.

A Henan-based journalist using the moniker” A book retailer in the sea” published an article with the subject” China and Russia didn’t form an alliance, Medvedev has made a decision” on December 12.

He claims that the Syria and Ukraine troubles were discussed at the Liu-Medvedev meet. He claims that the lack of complete control over the new Syrian government could encourage the growth of violence and ultimately harm China’s hobbies in the Middle East. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Before possible peace negotiations are started by US President-elect Donald Trump, who will take office in the White House on January 20th, the author claims that Putin may have requested a raise in proper cooperation between China and Russia. &nbsp,

He reiterates Beijing’s approach that China and Russia does not form an alliance.

Southwestern Silk Road&nbsp,

Beijing will keep an eye on Syria’s political condition, according to some Chinese critics, but it is only doing it for the sake of keeping an eye on Russia, not to aid Russia. &nbsp,

” Some folks think the decline of Assad’s regime did hurt China’s passions, but really the affair is a great opportunity for China”, a Hong Kong-based blogger writes in an article. ” China’s interests will be hurt only if Syria becomes chaotic” .&nbsp,

He claims that Bashar al-Assad, the former leader of Syria, failed for many years in his efforts to boost the local market and stop anti-government forces and ISIS. This made China unable to finish the Southern Silk Road, which connects China and Europe via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. &nbsp,

He points out that China’s complete direct purchase in Syria was just US$ 13.24 million at the end of 2022, which is a significant drop from the$ 300 billion figure that bloggers have claimed. &nbsp, &nbsp,

” By offering humanitarian aid, China may establish a good relation with the new Palestinian state”, he says. China and Syria can cooperate economically, while China does support the restoration projects it.

A Beijing-based contributor says setting up the Northen Silk Road to join China and Europe via Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus and Poland may not be a smart choice for Beijing.

” For then it’s certainly a question of passing through Russia as Sino-Russia connections are good”, he says. What about the need to get assistance from Russia one time? He adds that Poland may not be a trustworthy business partner as well.

He claims that Turkey does go through China’s Southeastern Silk Road, but the Middle East nation will likely request a sizable sum of money from Beijing. Then, he says, Syria is a new opportunity for China to construct its Silk Road.

Sino-Russia bilateral deal

In the first 10 weeks of this year, the bilateral trade between China and Russia grew 2.8 % year-on-year to US$ 202 billion, according to the Chinese traditions. Nevertheless, the number dropped 5 % year-on-year to US$ 20.5 billion in November.

China’s exports to Russia also fell 10.5 % year-on-year in November after growing 24.4 % in October.

Due to this, in September, China approved the Rules on Civil-Military Dual-Use Products after G7 countries raised fears in April about Chinese firms ‘ shipments of weapons parts to Russia. In order to avoid US sanctions, the nation earlier this year urged local financial institutions to stop accepting payments from Russia in the renminbi. &nbsp,

As Beijing keeps Moscow at arm’s length, the customs department of Russia’s eastern city of Vladivostok has imposed a 55.65 % tariff on China-made furniture parts since autumn. &nbsp,

The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade made a plan to gradually increase its “recycling fee” for auto buyers by 70-85 % from current levels by 2030, according to the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The fee, which is seen as another form of tariff targeting Chinese vehicles, will increase by 10-20 % from the beginning of 2025. &nbsp,

Read: First salvo of a Russia-China trade war

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Understanding Syria’s pleasantly surprising new ruler Sharaa – Asia Times

Syria continues to experience a storm of joy and trust in its second year, helped by pleasant scares from its new de facto leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously al-Jolani.

He claimed over the weekend that the Islamist Iran program is to blame for the Middle East and that he favors politics over Israel as a means of resolution. And while the hardships of government will surely complicated, and may even undermine, Sharaa’s journey toward his reported goals, his start has been nothing short of superb.

To know Sharaa’s thinking, one does parse his various statements, from when he beat competing military factions to emerge on top in Idlib, therefore from his time as the north province’s ruler and, secondly, from his media availabilities since the rebels, generally Islamists, swept the part of Syria that had been under the control of the Assad dynasty since 1972.

While governing Idlib, Sharaa’s cabinet tried, in January, to pass and enforce a social engineering law, with 128 articles, that was supposed to impose a strict code on public space and behavior. The law also forbids the sale and consumption of alcohol, established a strict Islamic dress code for girls in schools, and outlaws such cliched social behaviors as smoking ( including the well-known hookahs in coffeeshops ) and fortunetelling.

The law created a stir, and that might have prompted its authors to put it on hold. Sharag tried to defend it by selling it as a law that “favored preaching Islam over imposing it,” but he did not appear to be firmly in favor of it.

Sharaa demonstrated one of the key concepts that distinguished him from Islamist rulers while defending it. He said,” If we scare people into believing in Islam, they will pretend to be Muslims when we show up and stop believing when we leave.”

Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman reached the conclusion that Sharaa was aware of the usefulness of religious coercion, and he began implementing it in 2015, accelerating Saudi Arabia’s social liberalization.

During his rule of Idlib, Sharaa praised his team’s ability to run a government that succeeded in collecting taxes, balancing its books, reconstructing damaged infrastructure, and providing adequate services, from trash collection and supply of water and electricity to management of public schools and colleges. Since Assad fled to Moscow and his regime fell, Sharaa has been promising the rest of Syria with this success, ever since he assumed control of the situation.

He appears to have given up on Islamist populism that promises to end all forms of jihad, liberation, and warring against non-Muslims, especially Israel because he has a plan and because he has faith in his ability to make Syria a successful state.

Sharaa claimed in his earliest media interviews that he had joined Al-Qaeda because he was still young and immature at the time and that his opinions have evolved and changed since. Additionally, he claimed to believe in pluralism and democracy.

Both men erected behind them two flags: the Syrian revolution and the jihadist flag of their Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ( HTS ) militia, just like in the first appearance of Sharaa’s Idlib Prime Minister Muhammad Bashir as the head of a transitional Syrian cabinet. On social media, the HTS flag sparked a stir. The next day, Syria’s new rulers nixed their faction’s flag and stuck to the Syria one only. Sharaa and his lieutenants had a plan, but they also listened.

Sharaa’s most encouraging statements, so far, have come during his meeting, over the weekend, with Arab journalists, in which he said that Syria under him had no problem with the Iranian people, but only with the “dangerous project” of the Iran regime. He added that Syria would not choose to fight Israel, that Israel’s attacks on Syria are no longer justified ( since there are no longer any Iranian militias ), and that he would instead seek diplomatic solutions to any issues involving the Jewish state.

Sharaa also appeared unwavering in opposition to the Iranian “project,” and she also sounded unwavering in support of the Iranian model of encouraging the formation of armed non-state militias that would allow a” spiritual leader” to impose rule over the typically weaker government, leading to the formation of failed states in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.

Sharaa stated that he intended to end all militias and forge a consensus among the Syrian government to be the only sovereign who has the authority to use violence when necessary.

He argued that while Syria’s new rulers could have attacked Russian installations there, he would have preferred to turn the page. Washington and London are both now in contact with Sharaa.

Syria’s future is still in danger of a catastrophe. The government of all of Syria might prove much more difficult than administering just one of its provinces, and it might also lead to a deterioration in the public’s opinion of Sharaa and the new rulers, which could lead to them starting an Islamist populist movement by rekindling national fervor and engaging in bloody wars.

We must take Sharaa and his guys for what they are meant to do and keep a cautious outlook while aiding them in creating a new Syria and offering them advice whenever we believe they are heading in the wrong direction.

Hussain Abdul-Hussain works for the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies ( FDD ) as a researcher. Follow him on X @hahussain

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South Korean parliament impeaches President Yoon – Asia Times

Yoon Suk Yeol’s dramatic decision to declare martial law the past year, which the opposition has called a self-coup effort, was up for a narrow vote on December 14 in the National Assembly of South Korea. The voting was 204 to 85, with 3 nays and 8 irrelevant votes.

” Now the National Assembly voted in favor of President Yoon’s prosecution. As Yoon was suspended from his post as president, National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik said,” It is a selection made on behalf of the promises we made as the person’s representative to defend the constitution.

” People’s life are what make republic possible. We may move ahead. We hope people’s lives are immediately stabilized”, Woo added.

The Constitutional Court of South Korea has 180 days to premeditated the senate activity. Yoon joins President Park Geun-hye and former President Roh Moo-hyun in impeachment by Seoul’s congressional tree, which is the second time in South Korean history. The latter’s prosecution action was dismissed by the courtroom after 63 times, while the author’s senate was confirmed after 93 days.

Yoon was charged with “unconstitutionally declaring martial law” and oppressing the National Assembly by the prosecution action on Saturday. Additionally, it criticized the President for attempting to detain powerful figures and defrauding the National Election Commission.

Yoon refuted these claims in a televised address on December 12 and claimed to have declared martial law to alert the general public of the opponent’s “legislative dictatorship.” Yoon railed at the criticism events, calling them pro-North Asian, anti-state causes.

The future of Yoon and his management

With Yoon’s prosecution action passed, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo may assume the role of Acting President until the Court’s ultimate decision.

” In these tough times, I will do my best to maintain the state”, said the prime minister after Yoon was impeached by the government. &nbsp, &nbsp,

But, Prime Minister Han also faces a probe by the authorities for his part in Yoon’s martial law order.

The Democrat Party, South Korea’s largest opposition party, stated that it has no intention of impeaching Han Han but may do the activity in the future. According to Democratic Party spokesman Hwang Jung-ah,” There are many domestic disputes related to the senate of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo.” However, we may arrive at a decision taking into account various local circumstances.

However, Yoon’s impeachment trial faces administrative barriers. Six justices are now serving on the nine-person section of Seoul’s Constitutional Court, with three retiring in October. At least seven judges must be present to premeditated an impeachment action, and six must make a decision in favor of upholding the movement, according to the law.

By the end of this month, the Democrat Party said it would make recommendations for judges to the board. The visit of a Constitutional Court fairness requires the President’s confirmation—in this circumstance exercised by Prime Minister Han.

Nonetheless, experts say this concept is essentially be bypassed.

According to South Korean attorney Lee Ju-ha,” the provision requiring the consideration of at least seven justices was briefly suspended in October during a trial to oust Korea’s communications commissioner.” The necessity is now that” all six must rule in favor of the motion.”

Lee predicted that the Constitutional Court would most likely support the impeachment, saying that Yoon “invaded the National Assembly with trained soldiers”” the whole military law declaration process was illegal and unlawful.

He continued,” The President has a legal duty to defend the Vietnamese people’s civil rights and incomes.” But the]martial rules ] order entirely violated the constitution, rule of law, polity, and the structure of governance”.

” That is more than enough cause to be impeached”.

If Yoon’s senate is confirmed by the Constitutional Court, South Korea will have 60 days to choose a new leader. According to a poll conducted on December 8th, 52 % of South Koreans favored Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung for the upcoming presidency. Han Dong-hoon, the head of the ruling party, slipped behind with 9 %.

Who is Lee Jae-myung?

Lee, a trained politician, has previously held two legislative office positions. Lee ran against Yoon in the 2022 National Elections, losing by a margin of only 0.73 %–the smallest in North Korean history.

Lee, a mill laborer-turned-politician, is considered by his followers as a powerful liberal force who can issue Korea’s established organizations. Lee urged radical changes to Korea’s welfare systems during his most recent presidential campaign, including a 200, 000 Korean won ($ 139.99 ) stipend for each child under the age of 17, a loan of 100 million Korean won ($ 9 ) for newlyweds, and a half-adequate reduction of public university tuition costs.

However, Lee’s laws towards North Korea emphasis on cooperation and peaceful interaction. In 2022, Lee vowed to relieve sanctions on North Korea and to develop new inter-Korean jobs. &nbsp,

His opinions on North Korea closely resemble those of former senator Moon Jae-in, who met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in 2018 to negotiate a defense truce. In 2023, President Yoon canceled the contract.

But, Lee’s political opinions may prove an obstacle to South Korea’s empire with the United States. Lee is a vocal critic of Yoon’s political stances toward Japan, calling for” a perfect reshuffle” regarding South Korea’s military participation with Japan.

US President-elect Donald Trump’s advisers have told South Korean and Japanese leaders that the Trump administration will continue to support Biden-era efforts to strengthen three-way relationships, according to Reuters. Such initiatives may be hampered by the establishment of a new democratic administration under Lee’s leadership in Seoul.

On December 13, DP Representative Kang Sun-woo stated that the Democrat Party “is committed tofostering a productive and forward-looking connection with Japan.” Cooperation among South Korea, the US, and Japan is vital”.

Optimism and hope

Despite this deepening political upheaval, South Koreans on the roads rejoiced at Yoon’s prosecution.

When Assembly Speaker Woo appeared on a big screen declaring Yoon impeached, presentations in front of the National Assembly immediately turned into festivity scenes.

Demonstrants danced to K-pop songs while holding light pieces high in the air. Some embraced one another and shed tears.

” I was but joyful. This effect was made by the people, for the people”, said 26-year-old Kim Ye-sol. ” I nearly cried”.

The protester’s slogans switched from “impeach Yoon Suk Yeol”! to “arrest Yoon Suk Yeol,” the thief!

As the regional authorities make an even more urgent case against the suspended President, Yoon’s imprisonment is becoming more likely.

Following the vote, DP head Lee Jae-myung said this was a win for the individuals. ” We have proved that it is the individuals who own this nation”, Lee said.

Yoon’s business said,” President Yoon Suk Yeol may do his best for the people, until the very finish”.

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What’s driving state-sponsored attacks on citizens abroad? – Asia Times

Egyptian rebel Jamshid Sharmahd was visiting Dubai in July 2020 when he was unavoidably kidnapped. Before the signal went silent, mobile phone data afterward found that his movements were to Oman’s switch town of Sohar.

Weeks later, he reappeared in Iran, accused of leading a terrorist group and organizing problems in Iran, charges his household denies. After years in confinement, he was executed in October 2024.

Iran’s behavior are portion of a historic structure. Since the 1979 Revolution, its government has targeted rebels elsewhere. Significant incidents include the 1991 stabbing death of the Shah’s final prime minister in Paris and the 1992 murder of four Iranian-Kurdish rebels at a Berlin cafe.

These incidents appear to have rekindled, with an Iranian journalist abducted in Iraq in 2019, an opposition leader abducted in Turkey in 2020, and a foiled try to abduct an Egyptian blogger in the US that year as well.

Performance governments have a monopoly on violence and confinement within their edges, including the death penalty and legal prison. In conflict areas, these powers often extend into disputed regions, fading legal distinctions.

But, Iran’s extrajudicial operations are a trend that smaller countries are exceedingly restraining from traditional powers and obstructing international laws.

To observe people, arrange a hit, and evade detection, secret operations targeting your own citizens in other countries demand significant resources and cleverness. The rise in political killings by violent and criminal organizations in the early 1970s influenced these operations in part by the current era.

Institutions responded with their own secret activities, both domestically and internationally, broadening their goals to include political activists and opposition numbers.

Globalization, interconnected community systems, and advances in monitoring technologies have more enabled these activities. States act with growing violence and plausible deniability as the political impact declines and global enforcement declines, especially from the US, which has faced criticism for its own remarkable rendition and helicopter strikes on US citizens abroad.

Residents who are not involved in political disputes often find themselves in conflict, further lowering the importance of national sovereignty.

Some nations are as ruthless as Iran has been for ages, but others are also demonstrating their approach. In neighboring Pakistan, regional forces recently detained a Pakistani federal in Myanmar in October 2024.

Turkey, however, has escalated its extrajudicial businesses the most in recent years in response to the 2016 coup attempt. Turkish officials claim to have abducted over 80 people from 18 states between 2016 and 2018 only. Six Greek nationals were kidnapped in Kosovo and returned to Turkey in one event in 2018, which caused a diplomatic split between the two countries.

Turkey’s assertive policy of targeting its citizens abroad has not stopped another institutions from using it as a setting for their own actions. Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist from the United States, was killed inside Saudi Arabia’s consul in Istanbul in 2018. The Turkish government’s powerful condemnation of the dying drew widespread outcry and outcry. But, Washington’s hesitancy to implement significant effects on Saudi Arabia emboldened additional says.

In 2021, Algeria abducted a rebel in neighboring Tunisia, continuing a discipline that has become popular in some parts of Africa. South Sudan, for example, kidnapped two of its people from Kenya in 2017. In a more well-known case, three Congolese officials were arrested in 2014 after being linked to the death of a previous Rwandan intelligence key and the attacks on two different Rwandan exiles.

In Eastern Europe, during the political and social revolution of the 1990s, assassinations of state officials became a tragic reality. Institutions frequently responded in form, targeting people outside of their borders. Russia’s strategy has been notably renowned for its persistent and constantly evolving techniques.

Numerous Chechen separatist supporters and those affiliated with organized crime have been murdered in various nations, with Chechens frequently carrying out operations to conceal Moscow’s strong presence. These include the 2011 and 2019 deaths in Germany and Turkey.

Russia’s social deaths in the UK have even drawn international attention. Alexander Litvinenko, a former FSB broker, was mortally poisoned with a nuclear material in London in 2006. In 2018, another former Soviet intelligence broker, Sergei Skripal, survived a poison effort, though a native citizen was killed. These scandalous episodes showed that no one is out of reach for Russia, even in the country’s knowledge capital of Europe, despite their high-profile attacks.

Further inland, Russian officials are reportedly looking into Russian private military firms and are responsible for the 2018 murders of three Russian editors in the Central African Republic. And since the start of the Ukraine conflict, Russian authorities are alleged to be responsible for at least one defection in Spain in 2023, as well as many deaths of prominent Russian people in different nations.

Russia’s deeds have set a precedent for another post-Soviet state. Uzbekistan has a record of pursuing dissidents abroad, starting with the arrest of Kyrgyzstan-born Uzbek human rights activist Muzafar Avazov in 2006. Since then, allegations have been made of including a suspected role in the 2014 death of an Uzbek Islamic preacher in Turkey and an attempted execution of a Uzbek resident in Sweden.

In order to board the plane and hold a journalist, Belarus forced a Ryanair journey through its aircraft to land in Minsk in 2021. Although physically located in Belarusian airport, it was in violation of international standards for the safety of civil aviation.

China has even taken advanced measures to thwart opposition in different nations. With its growing power, it can coerce some governments to return wanted Foreign nationals, including the expanding use of “overseas authorities stations” to scare expatriates into obeying orders, a practice unmatched in its scope despite various nations having used similar tactics to persuade citizens to return home. But China’s story of violence, in one of the largest foreigner populations in the world, extends decades.

For instance, a pro-democracy advocate was seized in Vietnam in 2002, while a former Chinese diplomat who had sought asylum in Australia was reportedly intoxicated and transported back to China in 2005 via a ship. In recent years, its actions have become more evident, especially in Southeast Asia. A pro-democracy advocate in Thailand abducted a book publisher in Thailand in 2015, and a publisher there followed him the following month.

Thailand has been linked to international efforts to target rebels. The shooting of government official Ko Tee in Laos in 2019 and the targeting of different figures, including an advocate in Cambodia in 2020, both raised concerns of Thai presence.

Kim Jong Nam, the separated half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, was killed in Malaysia in 2017 and North Korea showed its commitment to use foreign officials to silence reviewers. A Asian and Indian member were accused of acting on Pyongyang’s representative. Later that month, Vietnam experienced reaction when its agents were accused of kidnapping an professional from a Taiwanese oil company in Berlin and violently returning him to Vietnam, causing a diplomatic dispute with Germany.

India has increased its efforts against those it claims support the Khalistan democracy movement, which seeks an impartial Sikh state in India.

When evidence emerged linking India to the death of a Sikh separatist president in British Columbia and a foiled plot to kill another head in New York in 2023, hostilities erupted between India and Canada. In addition to the reports that revealed India was expanding its surveillance of diaspora communities in the UK and Australia, the incidents sparked a significant diplomatic row.

India’s actions, in particular, pose a risk to normalizing this behavior further. Countries like China, Russia, and Iran already engage in extraterritorial operations, but India’s status as a growing partner to the West raises the stakes. What might other states feel encouraged to do if a country with close ties to Western democracies can act with relative impunity?

The actions of India could lead to Western nations agreeing to uphold the diplomatic balance, and they could also serve as a catalyst for other countries to make similar concessions to achieve the same outcomes.

Years of US intelligence agencies kidnapping and assassinating Americans living abroad have contributed to the growing willingness of nations like India to test these boundaries. However, after 9/11, the US increased and authorized “extraordinary rendition,” holding hostages of US citizens and foreigners who had been detained for terrorism and who were frequently tortured and later deported to other nations.

The widespread adoption of drone technology has altered government operations abroad, including the targeting of their own citizens. In 2011, US citizen Anwar al-Awlaki, a Yemeni American cleric linked to Islamic extremism, was killed in Yemen by a US drone strike. Despite his ties to extremist organizations, his murder raised serious questions about the erosion of due process, despite the strike’s lack of support from the populace.

The US’s policy change in the 21st century was reflected in the operation, which was justified by the idea that military action was permitted where states are “unwilling or unable” to combat terrorism. By 2013, the Obama administration had made it known that four Americans had been killed by a similar number of drone strikes abroad.

Advancements in technology are making it increasingly difficult for individual citizens to evade governments ‘ efforts to track them abroad. States are becoming more daring to cross borders, which is encouraged by Washington’s leniency toward allies engaging in similar behavior.

Concerns are also correlated with the dual citizens ‘ growing presence in these situations. Many nations refuse to acknowledge dual citizenship, which makes their treatment under international law more difficult and diplomatic norms more difficult. This growing trend of defending one’s own citizens in other nations runs the risk of spawning wider attacks on foreigners.

In November 2024, Israeli citizen Zvi Kogan was assassinated in the United Arab Emirates, reportedly by three Uzbek nationals. The incident comes after a year of increased tensions between Iran and Israel as well as years of Israeli operations targeting Iranian citizens both domestically and internationally.

Since the Ukraine War, rising sabotage and covert operations in the West and Russia have demonstrated how quickly foreign powers can smuggle into other countries. The possibility of citizens being attacked by external actors within their own countries is becoming alarmingly real in addition to the growing trend of governments targeting their own citizens abroad.

A world where sovereignty is routinely undermined—where states deny asylum, target their citizens, and strike foreign nationals—threatens to further erode trust, security, and the rule of law in an already fragile global order.

Even powerful countries may find themselves incentivized to curtail these practices if they can occur anywhere, confirming that no state is immune to the effects of unchecked impunity.

John P Ruehl is an Australian-American journalist living in Washington, DC, and a world affairs correspondent for the Independent Media Institute. He is a contributor to several foreign affairs publications, and his book,’ Budget Superpower: How Russia Challenges the West With an Economy Smaller Than Texas ‘, was published in December 2022.

This article was produced by the Independent Media Institute’s Economy for All initiative. It is republished with kind permission.

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What’s behind China’s Nvidia monopoly investigation? – Asia Times

The State Administration of Market Regulation in China is looking into American tech leader Nvidia for possible anti-monopoly violations and a deal Nvidia reached with Mellanox Technologies in 2020.

The initial claim only makes sense as retribution for the most recent round of US sanctions against China, but the next one may hold up. Nvidia is disputing the claims.

Nvidia has undoubtedly refuted rumors that it intends to cutback sales to China, which generated 15 % of its revenue during the three months to October ( Nvidia’s fiscal third quarter ). Nvidia is expanding its presence in China while focusing on industries like automatic driving, which are not subject to trade settings.

Because US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and her department’s Bureau of Industry and Security ( BIS ) have already prohibited China from exporting its most advanced GPU processors, it seems illogical for China to accuse Nvidia of monopoly practices.

Perhaps China should congratulate the US government for granting Huawei and another Chinese Circuit design firms the chance and a strong opportunity to launch their own AI chipset business while their most formidable rival’s hands are tied.

In 2022, the BIS banned imports of Nvidia’s top-end A100 and H100 chips to China. In 2023, it banned exports of the A800, a dumbed-down variation of the A100 designed specifically to meet BIS needs.

The A800 was a best seller in China so the BIS lowered the bar, forcing Nvidia to style another device, the H20, with even lower efficiency. But Chinese AI chips, led by Huawei’s 910B, proved to be economical with the H20, which has not sold also in China. And Huawei claims that its leader, the 910C, matches the effectiveness of Nvidia’s H100.

In any case, buyers from Baidu, Tencent, and another Chinese companies started switching to Huawei and various domestic chips once it became apparent that US sanctions were not based on strict technical standards as US federal officials claimed but could be changed at any time to just condemn China.

Export of Nvidia’s fresh and considerably more powerful Blackwell B200 AI chips to China are banned under existing punishment, but a dumbed-down type that may be called B20 is apparently being prepared. But why would it succeed as much as the H20 did?

Regarding Mellanox Technologies, the Chinese state approved the purchase under the condition that Nvidia may continue to offer its wire technology to Chinese customers without discrimination, no bundle them with its own GPUs, and guarantee interoperability of its own GPUs with another wire products.

Nikkei Asia points out that” It is unclear which of these words Nvidia is alleged to have been broken.”

InfiniBand and Ethernet connection adapters, switches, and other applications are created and provided by Mellanox, an Israeli firm focused on high-performance technology, data centers, sky storage, and financial services. Nvidia made arrangements to buy the entire company in 2019

Where might China have come up with the idea of conducting an antitrust investigation? In July, France confirmed that it was looking into Nvidia for alleged anti-competitive practices, and in September, the US Department of Justice subpoenaed the company for information regarding its potentially restrictive marketing practices. Nvidia’s share of the market for AI processors is thought to be about 90 %, aside from China.

US sanctions prevent China from purchasing EUV lithography systems made by ASML of the Netherlands, which not only restrict the export of advanced AI processors from Nvidia and its smaller rival AMD to China.

Due to this, it is impossible for Chinese designers to create integrated circuits ( ICs ) with design standards less than 5 nm, and 7 nm is the closest they can go with sufficient efficiency. Blackwell processors, on the other hand, are made by TSMC using a 4nm process. In the quest to create more sophisticated AI processors, Nvidia is currently steps ahead of the Chinese.

However, chasing Nvidia is not the only way to make AI progress. In recent months, Chinese research institutions have reportedly developed AI processors based on RISC-V ( pronounced “risk-five” ) open-architecture design standards and large language models for military use based on open-source models, including Meta’s Llama.

The Chinese aren’t the only ones using RISC-V. In February, US-based up-and-coming Nvidia competitor Tenstorrent made an announcement to license its RISC-V CPU technology to Japan’s Leading-edge Semiconductor Technology Center for the development of an AI processor made up of chiplets produced and packaged in Hokkaido by Japan’s new IC foundry Rapidus. &nbsp,

China is using chiplets to circumvent its lack of access to EUV lithography equipment. According to the MIT Technology Review, as stated:

In contrast to traditional chips, which integrate all components on a single piece of silicon, chiplets take a modular approach. Each chiplet has a dedicated function, like data processing or storage, they are then connected to become one system.

Since each chiplet is smaller and more specialized, it’s cheaper to manufacture and less likely to malfunction. In order to improve performance, individual chiplets in a system can be replaced at the same time, while other functional components remain the same.

Based on Reduced Instruction Set Computer Design Principles, RISC-V is an open standard instruction set architecture. It is a free, non-proprietary platform for the development of IC processors.

RISC-V is a great option for China as well as for the EU and to smaller companies and IC designers looking to establish a low-cost independent presence in the semiconductor and computing markets. It is an alternative to Arm, Intel, AMD, and Nvidia.

China has been forced by US sanctions to accelerate the creation of a national ecosystem for advanced ICs based on RISC-V.

The RISC concept was conceived at the University of California, Berkeley, in 2010. The Institute of Computing Technologies of the Chinese Academy of Sciences was one of the founding members of the RISC-V Foundation, which was established in 2015 to support and manage the technology. Other Chinese members of the foundation include Huawei, ZTE, Tencent and Alibaba.

The foundation left the United States in 2020 to avoid potential interference from US President Donald Trump by forming the RISC-V International Association. Beyond the reach of US sanctions, China is now estimated to account for about half RISC-V core shipments worldwide.

Meanwhile, DigiTimes reports that Nvidia has hired “hundreds” of new employees in China to work on autonomous driving. For autonomous electric vehicles, BYD and about a dozen other Chinese automakers have adopted its DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip ( SoC), which generates annual revenues of more than$ 1 billion for Nvidia.

Looking ahead to 2025, at least five Chinese EV makers – BYD, XPeng, GAC-Aion, Li Auto and Zeekr – plan to use DRIVE Thor, the successor to DRIVE Orin. But DRIVE Thor incorporates the generative AI capabilities of Nvidia’s leading-edge Blackwell architecture. Will the US government also make an effort to stop this?

The Chinese are hedging. BYD, Li Auto, ChangAn and many other Chinese automakers are also working with Horizon Robotics, China’s leading computing solutions for advanced driver assistance systems ( ADAS ) and automated driving ( AD ) for consumer vehicles. So is Volkswagen. Horizon Robotics went public in Hong Kong’s largest IPO this year in October.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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Tracking the leakage of German assault rifles in Philippines – Asia Times

In recent months, authorities have seized some uncommon European assault rifles in the Philippines ‘ Bangsamoro.

The region’s efforts to end decades of insurrection, problem, and violence highlight a prolonged protection challenge as it looks to conquer a decades of insurgency, corruption, and violence. Additionally, they mention a remarkable Spanish authorities practice.

In the violence-hitting municipality of Datu Saudi Ampatuan, in the heart of the conflict-affected Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao ( BARMM), on November 9, a local official handed over four weapons to the police.

Two assault rifles with Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP ) markings and two Heckler &amp, Koch HK416 assault rifles, which local residents allegedly gave to the official, were included in the weapons.

In one of Southeast Asia’s most arms-saturated regions, a 2014 peace agreement between the government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front ( MILF ) gave people the opportunity to bring in illicit weapons.

The government just launched an amnesty program that works with regional community leaders to obtain arms in exchange for state funding. Since its release in soon 2023, the plan has produced hundreds of firearms.

But the HK-416 firearms are distinct. They are only used by a limited number of police and military models, and they are not available for purchase on the human market.

According to German information on hands transfers, they could have only been exported to the Philippines between 2006 and 2012. In close proximity to each another, the authorities seized these firearms on at least three more times in 2024.

The initial arrest took place in February when a regional arms trafficker was being detained by police during a bite procedure in nearby Cotabato City. In May, authorities seized another HK-416 from an outlaw Girl chief in Sultan Kudarat, just northwest of Cotabato City. After spotting military men in a car at a local South Cotabato Province traffic checkpoint in July, police took another car.

Since HK-416s have not been seen in illegal flow in any other part of the Philippines, these situations are extremely tight in terms of time and place. Additionally, there is no evidence that they have been seized before 2024. The fact that several of these firearms have been collected by government forces in various circumstances suggests that there are more out there and that they were detainned in a systematic manner.

This raises a crucial issue: how did these ultra-modern rifles, which were only recently purchased by elite units ( Germany’s data suggests only 800 rifles were exported to the Philippines ) end up circulating in illicit possession throughout southwest Mindanao?

In a nutshell, government-held weapons may be diverted into illegal hands in a fairly limited number of ways: through field captures, loss, unexpected or planned fraud, looting, desertion, purposeful state-sanctioned diversion, or corruption. While it’s impossible to know the precise history of these rifles, some of these channels may be discounted. &nbsp,

Numerous military actors who may attempt to seize weapons through fight remain active in the BARMM. This includes the socialist New People’s Army, rogue parts of the MILF, or extreme Islamist parties like Dawlah Islamiyah.

The area is also replete with clan militias, usually overlapping with pro- and anti-government trained parties, that usually engage in violent rivalries. Any of these actors may reasonably seize these rifles by ambushing government forces or pillaging a federal arsenal.

But battle describes have become uncommon in Bangsamoro. Although often, government forces engage in attacks, they do not occur at the same rate or scale as they did in the past.

Armed organizations are typically willing to release pictures of captured weapons, but a constant check of NPA and Islamist resources does not reveal any HK-416-related claims. Several government forces have been launched recently that are powerful enough to feasibly seize several of these rare rifles in one incident.

Also, looting activities are unique and often take place within a larger security problems. When they surrounded the Marawi city ( today a part of the BARMM) in 2017, IS-aligned gunmen may have looted government outposts.

The HK-416s would have appeared in convulsions and loses properly before 2024, so there is little to suggest that they were leaked in this way. However, a spontaneous theft or loss would also be unlikely to divert some HK-416s without drawing major outside attention.

This suggests the weaponry would have been diverted through some method that involved inside support – either through state-backed escape, betrayal, planned fraud, or problem.

A well-known but largely illegal method in Bangsamoro, a hazy integration of state security forces and secret militias affiliated with powerful clans, families, and politicians, would probably take place if any of these diversion pathways were to happen.

The government has relied on security initiatives and organizations that are susceptible to political interference at the local and provincial levels in its effort to stabilize the region. This includes the Civilian Armed Forces Geographical Units ( CAFGUs ), which are armed volunteers hired to provide extra manpower to military and police units.

Local and regional elected officials have the authority to choose such volunteers and can use their authority to appoint their own cronies or buy off employees, typically giving them access to surplus state weapons.

Additionally, local police units answer local elected officials and the national police force. In this way, powerful clans and politicians can install loyalists in their neighborhood police departments, giving them some access to police armories, licensing procedures, and procurement channels. The 2009 Ampatuan Massacre is still relevant for demonstrating this dynamic, despite being 15 years old.

In a municipality named after the clan itself, gunmen affiliated with the powerful Ampatuan clan massacred dozens of people on November 23rd, that year. The victims were a political rival on his way to register for a local election, his entourage, and journalists documenting the process.

Security forces seized an incredible arsenal from the clan’s militia following the massacre, including machine guns and mortars that could only have been obtained from government armories as well as ammunition that had been purchased by police officers only a year prior.

The ammunition demonstrates how police can serve as a conduit for powerful clans and warlords to obtain weapons from illegal sources. Four officers purchased one million ammunition rounds from a Philippine arms manufacturer in 2008 ostensibly to conduct operations in a province close to the Ampatuans ‘ positions of power. Contrary to government guidelines, the officers reportedly paid$ 400, 000 in cash for the ammunition, despite the fact that they had no official purchase permits.

The ammunition was shipped from Manila to the enumerated province by the manufacturer, and it was taken four months later. Only a quarter of the 1,200 weapons taken from the Ampatuans were registered and legally owned; the rest could have been obtained through police or similar means.

In the BARMM, clan feuds and electoral violence are persistent sources of insecurity. Given the extent of the region’s still-present arms access and violence, the interconnected trends are so severe that they threaten the validity of the peace agreement from 2014. The HK-416s strongly suggest that arms traffickers, prominent clans, and armed actors can still source even modern government weapons through subtle forms of collusive diversion.

Although it may seem oppressing to the government, this highlights two positive aspects that merit praise. Only because the Philippine government actively and creatively seeks to return illicit weapons to state control and because military and police departments publicly disclose each seizure and surrender on their social media pages for the public to see if these HK-416s are identified and tracked can we identify and track them.

Such transparency is invaluable, it illuminates high-level trends that local or provincial units may not be able to detect. This information can help government agencies plan better interventions, such as targeted amnesties for particular high-value weapons or targeted police audits in areas where it is suspected that such weapons are expanding.

It also benefits international stakeholders. Armes exporters can use these reports to identify potential sources of revenue or to discover opportunities to support the Philippine government. Additionally, these disclosures provide a clearer picture of how security conditions in Bangsamoro are changing as they allow interested parties to track the flow of illicit weapons back into state control.

Other countries would be wise to use this information to make a public report.

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Trump’s BRICS salvo an exercise in dollar destruction – Asia Times

NEW DELHI – A week after US President-elect Donald Trump threatened 100 % tariffs against any backers of a” BRICS currency”, key emerging powers such as India have quickly distanced themselves from any BRICS-led de-dollarization initiative.

” Right then, there is no plan to have a BRICS money. So I’m not quite sure what is the foundation for]Trump’s note ]”, India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said during the Doha Forum held in New Delhi this year.

The top minister of India made it clear that “each state doesn’t have an identical placement on this,” despite the fact that there are ongoing discussions about streamlining and advancing “financial transactions” among Six countries.

” ]W] these India’s involved, the United States is our largest business partner and we have no interest in weakening the dollar at all”, he added, emphasizing India’s selection of relations with the West.

Days earlier, Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das also clarified that” ]t ] here is no step which we have taken that specifically wants to de-dollarize]which ] certainly ]is ] not our objective” despite ongoing attempts to diversify the country’s pool of foreign currency reserves.

India’s northern banker even questioned the validity of a BRICS money given the “geographical spread of the countries…unlike]common money devices like ] the eu which has geographical contiguity”.

In his sly attempt to reestablish National supremacy, the second Trump administration may end up boosting the chances of a BRICS currency.

A ham-fisted approach to diplomatic relations with key rising powers, however, will likely just strengthen their resolve to group together and&nbsp, cooperatively undermine any US-led international order.

Not only India but another non-Western forces for Indonesia, Turkey, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia will also likely not simply join the BRICS but also more positively lead to new “de-dollarization” initiatives.

In recent years, America has attempted to win foreign support and has been slowly forming a new alliance to “de-risk” China, mainly in high-tech goods like expensive electronics and the tools used to create them.

But Trump’s good unilateralist policies, including higher blanket tariffs, could inspire rising powers, particularly those in BRICS, to double down on efforts to “de-risk” from the US, paving the way for a new world order immediately.

To be sure, de-dollarization is complicated and mostly also aspirational. For example, India has struggled to enact its more narrow, diplomatic non-dollar-denominated deal with important lovers such as Russia.

Moscow is accumulating US$ 1 billion every month that it struggles to use because of both American sanctions and India’s funds control measures, in the midst of a historically increase in India’s trade of greatly discounted Russian oil.

” This is a problem”, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters during last year’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO ) meeting. ” We need to use this money. However, these rupees must be transferred to a different currency for this, and this is being discussed right now,” he continued.

Leading Russian experts, like Alexander Knobel, have warned that India’s mass of “frozen funds” will likely “reach tens of billions of dollars,” and that the” situation is aggravated by India’s historically high aggregate trade deficit, which reduces the chances of clearing settlements with third countries.”

Similar issues have previously developed as a result of a boom in non-dollar-denominated trade between major oil customers like India and China, one of the BRICS members, and Iran, another country that is also heavily sanctioned by the West.

Nevertheless, the world’s most populous nation continues to maintain robust ties with Russia, a major source of armaments and hydrocarbon goods throughout the past decades.

This week, Indian private refiner Reliance&nbsp, ( RELI. NS ) &nbsp, secured a massive deal with Russia’s state oil firm Rosneft&nbsp, ( ROSN. MM). The 10-year agreement, amounting to a whopping 0.5 % of the entire global supply, is worth roughly$ 13 billion &nbsp, a year.

The new deal notably accounts for roughly half of Rosneft’s seaborne oil exports, making Indian markets a leading customer.

As the two BRICS countries strengthen trade and energy ties, Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to travel to New Delhi soon. India imports a third of its energy from the Eurasian nation, but the South Asian nation has replaced the European Union as Russia’s top energy client.

Trump, who is determined to keep American dominance, warned on his social media platform ( Truth Social ) that partner countries could” face 100 per cent tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy” unless they agree to “neither create a new BRICS currency, nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US Dollar.”

Harkening back to his” Make America Great Again” foreign policy mantra, the incoming US president warned any backers of a BRICS currency:” They can go find another’ sucker.’ There is no chance that the BRICS will take the place of the US dollar in global trade, and any nation trying should wave goodbye to the United States.

Some in India hope for lessening the criticism of its long-standing relations with Russia in light of Trump’s support for a peace agreement in Ukraine. Nevertheless, the South Asian powerhouse has remained staunchly non-aligned in its foreign policy, eager to exploit great power rivalries for its own national interest.

A knowledgeable New Delhi resident said,” Whenever the West bashes us, we gain credibility in Moscow,” underscoring India’s preference to play the superpowers off one another while maintaining strong ties with both Washington and Moscow.

If anything, India’s Narendra Modi-led administration is relatively bullish on relations with a second Trump administration.

” We had a strong and solid relationship with the first Trump administration…Yes, there were some issues mostly trade-related, but there were a whole lot of issues on which President Trump was actually forward-leaning”, Jaishankar said during the Doha Forum this week. &nbsp,

According to our analysis, Prime Minister Modi and President Trump have a close relationship, “in my opinion.” In terms of politics, we really don’t have divisive issues”, he added, underscoring New Delhi hopes to leverage personal diplomacy with the incoming US leader.

Given India’s economic momentum and its emerging centrality in global growth, any global de-dollarization push will benefit from its foreign policy leanings.

Currently, the US dollar accounts for more than half of the world’s trade invoices and more than 80 % of all international currency transactions. Trump’s policies, however, could unintentionally affect how much the US dollar is used in the upcoming years.

On the one hand, it is still to be seen how the upcoming US administration will deal with pending bilateral disputes with benevolent BRICS members like India.

” A major source of concern is the fate of large number of Indians illegally residing in America”, a source in India with deep ties to Washington, DC, told this writer. If Trump implements the draconian immigration policies he vowed on the campaign trail, up to 18, 000 Indians could face deportation in the coming months.

Moreover, Trump’s fiscal policies, including massive tax cuts, could add as much as$ 15 trillion to America’s already sky-high$ 36 trillion national debt. Trump’s plan to impose unprecedented tariffs across the board may, in addition, totter global trade and lower the value of foreign currency reserves held by its major trading partners.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has &nbsp, welcomed&nbsp, the end&nbsp, of an American-led unipolar world and, accordingly, has pivoted to the BRICS and China, which he has described as a springboard for the creation of a more multipolar order.

For his part, Indonesia’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, has reversed his predecessor Joko Widodo’s policy by actively seeking membership in the BRICS. These new rising powers join the bloc to strengthen ties with Beijing, a major investor and trade partner, as well as express some unease with the US-led order.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian

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Dark Eagle: US bears hypersonic claws at China, Russia – Asia Times

The US Army’s Black Eagle hypersonic missile has only blazed earlier years of delays with a deafening launch, indicating a bold new wave in the country’s fight for long-range accuracy firepower against China and Russia.

This month, The War Zone reported that the US Army properly test-fired its Black Eagle fast missile from a trailer-based app at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida. After years of delays brought on by launcher issues, the test represents a major milestone.

The test, conducted by the US Army’s Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office (RCCTO ) and the US Navy Strategic Systems Programs, involved the Long Range Hypersonic Weapon ( LRHW), also known as the common All Up Round ( AUR) missile.

The statement notes that the weapon, which the US Navy plans to deploy on Zumwalt-class ships and Block V Virginia-class boats, achieved rapid frequencies exceeding Mach 5.

The War Zone says that various aircraft, including NASA’s WB-57F and the Missile Defense Agency’s ( MDA ) HALO jets, observed the test, demonstrating the missile’s capability to reach target distances at hypersonic speeds.

Additionally, the report mentions that US Army Secretary Christine Wormuth and US Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro both stressed the importance of the test in furthering the US government’s fast features.

According to the report, this powerful launch signals progress toward developing the Black Eagle system, with the first fully functional LRHW battery anticipated by fiscal year 2025. It further explains that the development of hypersonic arms is essential for maintaining US defense superiority, especially in potential problems in the Pacific.

As the US Army shifts from lengthy combat operations in the Middle East to battling China in the Pacific and Russia in Europe, it must face the daunting process of reinventing itself in response to the near-peer challenges. Capabilities providing long-range precision fires ( LRPF), such as LRHW, are critical to this transformation.

The US Army’s push for LRPF capabilities, notably hypersonic weapons, is driven by the need to counter adversaries like China and Russia, who have developed advanced anti-access/area-denial ( A2/AD ) systems. These features make it possible to launch conflict cuts that are beyond the capabilities of these techniques.

According to Asia Times, the US is building a missile walls across the Pacific to counteract China’s military expansion, with an emphasis on LRPF from land-based weapon devices like the Typhon.

Capable of launching Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles with ranges from 500 to 1, 800 kilometers, the Typhon bridges a gap between the shorter-range Precision Strike Missile ( 482 kilometers ) and the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (2, 776 kilometers ).

The program seeks to establish a system of missile launch locations in the First Island Chain, encompassing Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines, to strengthen counter-A2/AD features vis-à-vis China.

But, the plan faces major barriers, especially alliance opposition to hosting US weapon systems. While Japan appears most willing, different countries, including the Philippines, Thailand and South Korea, are wary of possible social backlash and economic retaliation from China.

Despite these challenges, the US has begun stationing Typhon missiles in the Philippines, albeit under the pretext of training exercises, to prevent triggering local escalations. This strategy shifts to a circular, flexible force deployment strategy rather than a fixed base deployment.

The initiative, according to critics, could lead to a missile-armed conflict with China, whose impressive weapon army, including the DF-26″ Guam Killer,” highlights the growing intensity of the US-China geopolitical rivalry.

Apart from building a Pacific weapon walls, Asia Times mentioned this month that the US Navy is transforming the USS Zumwalt, a US$ 4 billion guided-missile warship, into a fast weapons software to counter China’s growing maritime skills.

In order to replace its inactive gun system, the ship is being retrofitted with missile tubes, which will enable it to launch hypersonic glide vehicles ( HGV ) at seven to eight times the speed of sound.

This development work, part of the US Navy’s Conventional Prompt Strike ( CPS) program developed with the US Army, aims to enhance the Zumwalt’s operational power by allowing quickly, efficiency cuts from greater distance.

The program reflects the urgent want to tackle rising risks from China’s Model 055 cruisers and Russia’s military nuclear-armed vessels. Despite Zumwalt’s sophisticated systems, including electric propulsion and cunning design, the group has faced criticism for its higher costs and potential risks.

By 2027 or 2028, the US Navy intends to examine the fast program aboard the Zumwalt. The action is a part of a wider plan to keep the navy safe despite disruptions and overcash costs in other initiatives.

However, a US Congressional Research Service ( CRS ) report this month mentions several critical challenges for the US in developing, producing, testing and deploying hypersonic weapons.

Technological difficulty, according to the report, poses a substantial challenge because fast systems require cutting-edge components that can endure extreme temperatures and pressures. Production bottlenecks are caused by manufacturing these innovative materials at a scale.

According to the CRS record, additional difficulties are presented by the precision needed for transforming guidance, navigation, and control systems with aerodynamic shaping.

Also, it mentions that screening constraints have hindered development. Fast flight tests are expensive, logistically complex, and limited by the presence of particular exam ranges and facilities. This bottleneck slows down development and allows for iterative design.

Further, the CRS report says these weapons must be integrated into existing military infrastructure, requiring storage, handling, and launch system modifications. It makes note of the fact that deployment timelines have been further hampered by delays in these areas.

Additionally, the report mentions that slow decision-making has been exacerbated by bureaucratic and budgetary constraints, which have contributed to the technical and logistical difficulties. Collectively, these factors create a protracted timeline for the operational deployment of US hypersonic capabilities.

In a July 2024 article for National Defense Magazine, Josh Luckenbaugh mentions that China has invested heavily in developing and testing these systems over the past 20 years as a leader in the development of hypersonic weapons.

Luckenbaugh highlights China’s extensive research and development infrastructure, including numerous wind tunnels dedicated to hypersonic systems. He contrasts this by pointing out that since the Cold War, US facilities and expertise have declined, with the majority of testing capabilities now being held by academic institutions.

Although Luckenbaugh mentions efforts are being made to rehabilitate this expertise through collaborations between academia and the US Department of Defense ( DOD ), the US has so far not deployed a single hypersonic weapon.

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