The ceasefires that aren’t in Gaza, Lebanon – Asia Times

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The Gaza Strip war’s Israel-Hamas ceasefire is carefully deteriorating as daily small-scale breaches occur in the damaged coastal area. If low-intensity war is to become a thing, Donald Trump’s three-pronged peace strategy would be in jeopardized if it were to become reality.

In exchange for scores of Israeli prisoners currently in Israeli custody, the ceasefire is intended to first facilitate the release of several Israeli hostages held by Hamas, the Islamic terrorist organization.

Following those first exchanges, which are currently taking place, will be the complete withdrawal of Jewish troops from Gaza next month, followed by a lasting ceasefire and talks to finally end the conflict.

However, the murder warnings United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres, who claims it has been greatly reduced in comparison to the decades of conflict that started on October 7, 2023.

On the social media platform X, Guterres warned,” We has avoid at all costs the commencement of hostilities in Gaza that may result in an enormous tragedy.” Both parties had formally abide by the terms of the peace agreement and begin serious negotiations.

Gaza’s bubbling violence is not the only component that could drop the stalemate, observers contend. Trump himself made comments last week about the means of ending battle and goals that appeared to destroy the process.

He suggested transferring Gaza’s complete people to Egypt and Jordan, establishing a resort-resort similar to the French Riviera, and establishing a border with it. Washington pundits called it Mat-a-Gaza, a parody on the name of his secret Florida hotel, Mar-a-Lago.

” The stalemate has always been very brittle,” he said. It’s more therefore today”, said Girogio Calfiero, who heads Gulf State Analytics, a Washington-based consulting company. If the final objective is a massive cultural cleansing battle, in which more than two million Palestinians are forced into Egypt and Jordan, you have to wonder what justifies the continuation of the peace.

” It gives us good reason to worry about the ceasefire”, he concluded.

Cairo, Amman and local US supporters reject the thoughts, critically as does Hamas. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is, however, spreading the rumors during a Middle Eastern tour that started on Tuesday ( February 18 ).

One important US alliance has looked warmly on Trump’s people transplant pitch: Jewish leader Benjamin Netanyahu. He claimed he wanted to work with Trump to make it happen and called it “bold.”

Rubio, who was standing with the Jewish head during a joint media event, said that &nbsp, Hamas “must be eradicated”, without explaining why, therefore, it may keep talking.

US Middle East minister Steve Witkoff, who is leading the intervention work, stated that speaks on stage two of the peace are still taking place this year despite the aggressive comments.

In any event, the rise of murder seemed an empty mockery of the stalemate. Hamas police were killed and targeted by an Israeli drone attack on Sunday as they were assisting humanitarian assistance trucks close to Gaza’s southern border with Egypt.

Jewish news outlets reported on Tuesday that military forced Palestinians to march ahead of Israeli soldiers on guard in Gaza in an effort to “human shield” them. Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur for the Arab places, criticized the affair as “human insulating in action”.

A peace in Lebanon, which mirrors the Gaza alignment, is also in danger of collapse. Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim organization, had previously launched missiles into north Israel to help Hamas in Gaza. Israel later annexes the Hezbollah stronghold in southern Lebanon, and it continues to have troops it.

This year, Israeli jets bombarded locations across the north of Lebanon. According to Jewish leaders, the attack is intended to target Hezbollah positions and weapons depots.

Because of the Hezbollah risk, displaced Palestinian residents are forbidden from returning to evacuated places without Israel’s agreement, the authorities said.

According to information reports, Israeli forces shot an unarmed Palestinian woman who was attempting to process her home in the far north on cue to see if it had been damaged during the fighting.

Israeli army also made it known that they would not depart five of the military installations it had set up in southern Lebanon. The Syrian government had agreed to let the troops leave the area on January 26, which was a date set in discussions.

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun demanded that Israel “abide by the peace deal, and retreat on the given time”. He demanded that Qatari and American diplomats who work for peace “fulfill their responsibilities and help us.”

Israel has also been asked to leave by the UN. A UN special representative in charge of promoting tranquility in the nation said in a statement that” an additional delay in this process is not what we hoped would happen,”” no least of which because it continues to violate United Nations Security Council resolution 1701.”

Another issue that is ongoing in the West Bank is related to the Gaza battle, but it is not covered by a stalemate. Jewish raids into rebel Israeli cities—notably the main towns of Tukaram, Jenin and Nablus—are continuing.

Two months prior to Hamas ‘ conquest of southern Israel on October 7, 2023, low-intensity fights started in the West Bank. Without a concerted politics to put an end to the murder, it faces the threat of becoming yet another theater of destruction.

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Trump’s playing right into China’s hands – Asia Times

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Only one month into his second term, President Trump 2.0 has angered America’s historic allies and wreaked havoc on Uncle Sam’s thoroughly cultivated soft-power politics.

The result could hardly be more obvious: Trump is making it easier for China to overtake the US as the world’s top power.

How is Trump excluding the rest of the world? Let us count the way.

Initially, he has alienated yet close friends with tariffs and political braggadocio. Trump threatened its closest relatives and two of its biggest trading partners, Mexico and Canada, with 25 % taxes if they didn’t comply with his expectations on border control, alerting all US allies.

However, the plainly non-threatening state of Denmark, a NATO alliance no less, may struggle with Trump’s stated desire to acquire Greenland. And, for good measure, Trump has claimed that Taiwan” stole our device business”, threatened to “take up” the Panama Canal and left Zelensky out in the warm while he and Putin personally negotiate an end to Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Trump isn’t really turning over all the rocks in his search for enemies. He is giving them a hurl. In the face of like an onslaught, who would blame also America’s closest friends for second-guessing their partnership with Washington?

Next, Trump is pitting Silicon Valley against the earth. At the Artificial Intelligence Action Summit in Paris next week, Vice President JD Vance declined to sign a commitment to “ensuring AI is empty, inclusive, open, honest, healthy, safe and reliable, taking into account global frameworks for all”. Unfortunately, Vance proclaimed the US as the “leader” in AI. In fact, the US was the obvious fool in Paris.

Next, Trump has declared war on green energy. He renounced the US$ 7,500 tax credit for EV purchases and curbed funding to install domestic electric vehicle ( EV ) charging stations. Once, the US is an exception, prioritizing the conservative mantra “drill, baby, chisel” over the alternative energy revolution.

Naturally, many countries have great reason to be disillusioned with the US. But is China really able to position itself as a desirable alternative partner? The answer is certainly – and these, too, we can count the ways.

First, China now has an entry in the area of international commerce. Trump 1.0, which ended badly in his first spit with China, is now a progression. After signing what Trump called a “historical trade agreement” in 2020, China never even managed to purchase an additional$ 200 billion in US imports.

China’s imports in the Global South almost matched those of the US and the EU combined, owing to impure relationships with the US.

Xi wants to be the world’s biggest trading partner for its quick companions, but that is what he wants to become. Canada has precisely what China needs: hardwood, wheat, gas and crabs. Additionally, Chinese foreign direct investments in Mexico have increased by 50 % annually since 2018, from$ 43 billion in 2016 to$ 100 billion in 2023.

Next, when it comes to AI, China has become the companion of global collaboration. The recently released relational artificial intelligence model from Chinese company DeepSeek is open source and open to the public for free.

Also, China’s largest tech firms – Huawei, Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent – are violently developing, investing and promoting open-source technology. This is in striking contrast to American companies like OpenAI, Google and Meta that rely on finished, propriety technology.

China is aware that the global energy balance is also in the hands of those who win the high-tech arms competition. Its strategy to AI is a new form of “ping-pong diplomacy”. China is eager to take the lead in developing and implementing the rules for how AI (among other technologies ) will be implemented.

Third, unlike the US under Trump, China grasps the link between green power, high technology and world identity ( both economic and geopolitical ).

Autonomous driving, for example, can only be implemented in EVs, fossil-fuel cars would have to eat too much energy to move the appropriate number of cameras, computers and electronics.

And only the most advanced AI models that can operate autonomous vehicles successfully with billions ( if not trillions ) of data points. China now garners 76 % of the world’s EV market share, and much of the technology is open source.

In brief, China gets it. Providing cheap, open-source Batteries and AI models isn’t really – as Trump sees it – about the almighty dollar. Instead, it’s sweet energy in the form of 1s and 0s. China may say that it wants to make the planet great again, but Trump emphasizes making America great again.

Trump recently signed an executive order outlawing the use of paper straws in all federal buildings, briefly putting aside his obsession with Greenland ( not to mention Gaza ). ” We’re going back to plastic”, he explained, adding that paper straws “explode if something’s hot”. The rest of the world is, to be honest, concerned about other types of bombs.

America’s friends today face a choice. Do they choose free industry over taxes, open source over finished systems, and green power over fossil fuels? Amazingly, Trump has allowed China to seize the mantle of improvement in all three areas.

His strategy is shock-inducing but no awesin’. He is aiming for second position for America.

Stanley Chao is the author of&nbsp,” Selling to China” &nbsp, and has lived and worked in China for over 20 years.

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South Korea and the US: a critical alliance at a crossroads – Asia Times

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My elders did tell me tales of their early years when they chased after American soldiers and yelled,” Give me chocolate,” the only American thoughts they knew.

Seven years later, South Korea is one of the nation’s best and most developed countries. It is a amazing success story that demonstrates what happens when the US takes the lead with power and perspective.

South Korea has been returning the favor the US after had given South Korea by doing so. South Korea stepped up despite some nations avoiding direct participation in the Vietnam War because of democratic and private concerns. South Korea deployed more than 320, 000 soldiers at the US’s demand between 1964 and 1973, making it the largest foreign military factor after the US.

North Korean soldiers fought alongside Americans, sharing meals and battling socialism. The price was great: 5, 100 North Vietnamese soldiers lost their lives, while 11, 000 were wounded.

Beyond Vietnam, South Korea has constantly participated in UN peacekeeping missions in Somalia, East Timor, Lebanon, South Sudan, Iraq and Afghanistan, among people. South Korea has constantly fulfilled its obligations as a devoted member of the international community as a result of the liberal democratic get under the leadership of the US.

South Koreans continue to fight for freedom because they understand how important it is to its people because some more lives have been lost on these expeditions.

South Korea’s US coverage failings

Despite the strength of the empire, the US has struggled to keep a consistent and coherent plan toward South Korea. This loss is highlighted by two crucial errors:

1. The danger of US army departure: During the first Trump presidency, repeated threats to withdraw US troops from South Korea raised serious concerns among South Koreans. Although the practicality of such a drawback remains uncertain, background provides a disturbing precedent.

During the Vietnam War, South Korea’s rollout was based on an inherent knowing that, in returning, the US would maintain South Korea’s protection against North Korean anger. But, President Carter pursued a punitive drawback of US troops from the coast, and it sowed deep hostility in American agreements.

2. The Trump presidency even changed the terms of the US-ROK empire, focusing instead on a financial partnership rather than a bloody empire built on shared beliefs and sacrifices.

South Koreans have seen the United States as a pillar of democracy and a breakaway from Chinese persecution for years. But, Trump’s repeated complaints about South Korea’s economic growth, defence spending and business policies began to erode that understanding.

Real leadership transcends simple business transactions. It embodies perspective, vision and shared development. South Korea has long held this perfect, but recent US laws have skewed that view.

If this trend continues, it was considerably weaken American influence in the region. South Korea might be forced to do the same if the US treats it as a bloated collection item in a financial statement. What happens if China offers South Korea more financial incentives than the US?

Korea’s political value

Henry Kissinger reportedly observed,” Whoever controls Korea handles Asia”. Korea continues to be a significant player in regional safety and power dynamics despite China and Russia crossing the border to the northwest and Japan to the south.

Problems in Europe and Asia have long been treated by the US as distinct theaters. However, past tells a different tale. During World War II, the US primarily focused on Europe, underestimating Japan’s royal passions. But, Japan’s signing of the Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy demonstrated how interconnected Europe and Asia were.

Now, history is repeating itself. In line with previous relationships that led to local problems turning into world wars, North Korea is sending soldiers to Russia to struggle in Ukraine. One might go one step further and say that who controls Korea controls Asia and shapes the earth in light of recent political shifts, with North Korea immediately involved in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

The US must be aware that the world’s energy balance may be influenced by its current plans toward South Korea.

Dangers of the America approach

While the US today acknowledges China as a corporate company, it remains uncertain about how to store Beijing’s growing influence properly. South Korea is vulnerable because of its lack of proper clarity, which is counteracted by its portrayal of it as merely a business partner, and by its continuing to alienate one of the most unwavering US allies.

Yoon senate a foreign policy fight

The National Assembly’s second impeachment act against President Yoon cited his international policy as the main justification for his treatment:

The Yoon leadership has abandoned political stability, oppressed North Korea, China, and Russia, and pursued an unusually Japan-centric international policy. Also, it has appointed authorities with pro-Tokyo affiliations to essential government positions.

This speech alarmed astute international watchers, including Washington policymakers, despite immediately being dismissed as a minor incident. It established blatantly that authoritarian forces, supported by China, were trying to change South Korea’s social position.

The impeachment incident, which involved leftist groups aligning with Beijing more than Washington, revealed a heavy ideological divide within South Korea.

New danger

The liberal political world order is under siege, and unless the US and its supporters rise to the challenge, its life is not guaranteed. As Thucydides warned,” The robust do what they can”. To this, we might include: The just solid do what they just you.

This risk has gone by some names – socialism, communism, collectivism, people’s politics– but at the core there is a common denominator: a system in which the social subjugates the individual and freedom is sacrificed in the name of the so-called common good.

The US once had the social conviction to acknowledge the existential threat posed by the Soviet Union. It confronted that issue head-on – and won. Yet, the US has a record of oscillating between international authority and protectionism. ” America First” is a recurring theme in US foreign policy. When the US resorts, the vacuum is filled by the rising candidate.

Why is the US necessary in South Korea?

China has studied history and is exploiting US weaknesses, waging unrestricted warfare– no just physically, but likewise culturally, monetarily, and technologically – to undermine the foundations of liberal democracy.

South Korea has come a long way from a youngster chasing American trucks for chocolate to a country demonstrating that freedom and prosperity are possible outside the Western world. However, South Korea cannot compete with China’s growing behemoth on its own. It needs international support.

Freedom, once lost, is nearly impossible to regain. The enemies of democracy are aware of this, which is why they do not launch attacks directly but instead slowly erode our values, bit by bit. If we don’t acknowledge the magnitude of this challenge, we could soon find ourselves ruled by those who want to destroy our freedoms rather than the best.

According to Plato,” the price of apathy toward public affairs is being ruled by evil men.”

The choice is ours.

The question is clear: Will we rise to meet this challenge, or are we doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past?

Hanjin Lew&nbsp is a former international spokesman for South Korean conservative parties and a political commentator with an emphasis on East Asian affairs.

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Apparent Trump vision: Divvy up the world into demarcated empires – Asia Times

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Technically, America– whether led by Joe Biden, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump– may be trying to remain the country’s pre-eminent corporate power.

The realist perspective holds that the global system of states compels specific states to seek as much power as possible in foreign relations theory. &nbsp, This is the only means to effectively make themselves more stable.

From these, there is a cut between defensive and offensive realists.

Protective realists think that as a condition improves its standing over potential rival states, it stops at the accelerator and concentrates more on upholding the status quo than leading.

According to insulting realists, a state can never have too much security, and states will not give up trying to bolster their relative power over other nations, who could also be adversaries. &nbsp, Any condition that has the capability may try to dominate its relatives.

John J. Mearsheimer portrayed as” Mearchiavelli”, by Marwane Pallas, the Philomathean Society. Image: mearsheimer.com

One of the most popular American proponents of authenticity, University of Chicago doctor John Mearsheimer, is in the unpleasant station. &nbsp, His outlook&nbsp, predicts:” The United States is going to come to great lengths to make certain that China does not occupy Asia”.

Wonderful measures include declaring war on Taiwan. Americans “would fight and die to support Taiwan”, he&nbsp, believes.

He dissects questions about whether US citizens would be in favor of a war by stating that the US government had “manipulate the discourse on what is happening in ways that manifest China as a corporeal threat.”

Mearsheimer&nbsp, gives&nbsp, two causes why Washington had try so hard to have PRC expansionism.

Second, the United States has worldwide economic passions to defend. A possible adversary, such as China, do threaten American prosperity if it gained control of a significant region with its wealth, commercial potential, and economic power. &nbsp,” It is evident from the traditional record”, he&nbsp, writes, that” the US does not tolerate friend competition”.

Second, Mearsheimer argues that a strong country that establishes domination over its region is “free to roam” .&nbsp, Not threatened by any of its own neighbors, it will make aggressive probes into some other major power’s neighborhood. &nbsp, So if the US wasn’t blocking Beijing’s power over areas of China’s close overseas such as Taiwan, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, China may be challenging US protection in the Northern Hemisphere.

Mearsheimer’s unpleasant realism, nonetheless, has a built-in weakness. He acknowledges that governments, including those of the US, do not always work as his theory suggests, despite the reasoning that seems to suggest that America should hang onto proper hegemony at all costs and ensure China does no achieve hegemony over Asia.

For example, he&nbsp, says, &nbsp, it was “foolish” and a” proper blunder” for the US to energy China’s rapid economic growth and technical progress starting in the 1980s in the mistaken belief&nbsp, that this would preclude potential security conflicts with China– an opinion that many other analysts then share.

Mearsheimer claims that his theory accurately predicts how major powers will act in response to external circumstances, but that some nations, including the most important nation on earth, reject to act in accordance with his theory.

Despite the pressures of the international system, it seems as though this makes room for the possibility that a government in the US that is no longer interested in preventing Chinese hegemony in East Asia might emerge.

This may in fact be happening. &nbsp,

Trump’s strategy appears to involve dividing the world into clearly defined empires, rather than an activist America that favors liberal rules and institutions and seeks to shape regions around the world to stop the rise of powerful adversaries. His continued rant about annexing Canada and Greenland seems more like a joke to his domestic political rivals.

Trump may have accepted the Russian and Chinese empires, according to some sources. &nbsp, His government has signaled acceptance of Russia&nbsp, keeping&nbsp, its recent territorial gains in Ukraine.

Recent statements by Trump’s controversial Defense Secretary&nbsp, Pete Hegseth&nbsp, and Vice President&nbsp, J. D. Vance&nbsp, have deepened European&nbsp, fears&nbsp, that Trump II intends to scuttle US security commitments to Western Europe.

Trump has frequently said the US alliances with Japan and South Korea are worthwhile only if America&nbsp, makes a profit&nbsp, from them. He has said little about the strategic significance of these alliances, which suggests he is not in favor of strategically containing China, even though some of his senior officials are.

Trump reportedly&nbsp, wants&nbsp, to withdraw US troops from South Korea. &nbsp, He has also&nbsp, said&nbsp, he has” no problem” with North Korea testing short-range missiles that cannot reach the US, even though such missiles threaten South Korea. If Trump were to remove America from Pyongyang’s target list, it seems as though he would be willing to let go of South Korea’s defense.

As for the possibility of US intervention in a Taiwan Strait war, Trump has said Taiwan is&nbsp, indefensible and is&nbsp, unimportant&nbsp, compared with China – and that he resents Taiwan for allegedly” stealing” the semiconductor manufacturing business from the US.

After taking part in annual drills at the Tsoying naval base in Kaohsiung, Taiwanese sailors in this file photo, taken on January 31, 2018, salute the island’s flag on the deck of the Panshih supply ship. Photo: AFP / Mandy Cheng

Trump sees China as a threat as an economic threat, which he would address primarily through economic policy rather than military strategy.

He has always preferred tariffs as a tool. Trump argues that tariffs can help to balance the US trade deficit and encourage manufacturing to relocate there. &nbsp, In late 2024 Trump&nbsp, said&nbsp, in an interview with the&nbsp, Wall Street Journal&nbsp, that he would respond to a PRC attack on Taiwan by imposing high tariffs on China, not by sending US forces to help.

Contrary to Mearsheimer’s expectation, Trump seems not to fear that a Chinese hegemony over Asia would seriously jeopardize US prosperity.

Despite China’s impressive economic development, accumulation of wealth and military buildup, America is still the world’s leading economic, military and innovation power. &nbsp, Washington also has a network of strong allies, unlike China.

The US has not abandoned its efforts to support global arrangements made up of liberal principles that serve US interests, or to oppose Chinese expansionism in East Asia. &nbsp, Rather, the Trump II administration may be choosing to let&nbsp, Pax Americana&nbsp, die in a case of domestic politics triumphing over international imperatives that are clearly not irresistible.

Denny Roy is a senior fellow at the East-West Center, Honolulu.

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​US-Russia meeting in Riyadh successful, more to follow – Asia Times

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The great level political meeting, held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on February 17th, is reported to have been successful by both the Russian and US sides.

Steve Witkoff, who is Trump’s range one troubleshooter, said that the conference was “positive, cheerful, creative and really good”. Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister and rival to US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, said the appointment in Riyadh was “very useful”.

Actually the US group was led by Rubio along with Mike Waltz, national security advisor to the President, and Witkoff. We are unable to identify any individuals on the US area.

Rubio claimed that there were three main points at the table:

  • establishing diplomatic team to improve Washington and Moscow’s political operations
  • establishing higher levels groups to sort out the “parameters of the issue” in Ukraine, and
  • a second track to discover potential financial partnerships that could arise after the resolution of the Ukraine conflict, which the US part characterized as a “potentially historical financial prospect” for Russia.

Additionally, Lavrov stated that a meeting of the deputy foreign ministers would be held to discuss the specifics of a Trump-Putin meeting. No specific date was set for a Trump-Putin meeting.

Sergey Lavrov and Yury Ushakov, the president’s foreign affairs advisor, made up the top-level Russian delegation. Kirill Dmitriev was also a member of the Russian delegation. The Russian Direct Investment Fund ( RDIF), Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, is led by Dimitri V. Vladimir Proskuryakov and Dmitry Balakin were also present on the Russian side.

Proskuryakov has a focus on Arctic affairs and works for the Russian Embassy in Canada. Possible cooperation in the Artic was a topic of conversation in Riyadh. Although no specifics are available, it is likely that the discussion focused on the use of Artic resources and the creation of shipping routes if climate change continues to affect shipping.

It is reported that Dmitriev held side meetings in Riyadh on monetary and investment issues, but we don’t know who served as Dmitriev’s counterpart, although that could have been Steve Witkoff.

Both the US Embassy in Moscow and the Russian Embassy in Washington are conducting diplomatic operations while restrictions need to be lifted, essentially accelerating diplomatic normalization. This includes many elements. Following the meeting, Mr. Lavrov called attention to this and stated after the meeting that” It is necessary to remove the obstacles created by the Biden administration that impede the work of diplomats, including ongoing expulsions and seizures of real estate.”

In the debriefing of the meeting, Lavrov made a powerful point about Ukraine. Lavrov said” Not only did we listen, but we genuinely heard each other”.

Kyiv was not invited to speak at the talks, nor was any other state or organization from Europe. A flurry of activity in Europe has resulted from the lack of participation, leading to an “emergency” meeting called by France ( but excluding some NATO members who are opposed to supporting the Ukrainian war ).

Director General of NATO Marc Rutte, did attend the Paris meeting. It isn’t exactly clear why he did so, with some NATO members not invited, nor is it clear why he would do so without US agreement.

One result of the meeting, attended by the EU as a participant, were harsh statements aimed primarily at Washington and British pledge to send troops to Ukraine as part of some “peacekeeping” venture. The Germans, Italians and Poles disagreed with the British initiative.

The Russians have made it clear at the Riyadh meeting and in public statements, that NATO “peacekeepers” would not be welcome.

Lavrov said in his debriefing that a so-called three-step plan for Ukraine&nbsp, is a fake. &nbsp, The alleged plan has been attributed to Marco Rubio. ” The&nbsp, plan includes&nbsp, high-level meetings involving Ukraine and European nations and concessions from all sides, Rubio said”. The three steps are said to be ( 1 ) a ceasefire, ( 2 ) elections in Ukraine and ( 3 ) a final agreement.

It isn’t clear that a ceasefire was discussed, or Ukrainian elections. According to all credible reports, President Trump and President Putin both agreed to discuss potential terms for a settlement.

Numerous maps have been published in the press that show what a deal would look like and how the key points were discussed in Riyadh.

Readers should be informed that none of these maps appear to accurately represent the actual discussion in Riyadh, which covered the Russian and US positions on the conflict but did not go far enough to authorize further discussions to prepare for a Trump-Putin meeting.

Daily Mail graphic on a’ deal’ for Ukraine

The Riyadh meeting was conducting in a professional manner, without posturing or accusations. This is a major change from the rhetoric that dominated the Biden administration, although it remains a key component of Euro-rhetoric.

Stephen Bryen is a former US deputy undersecretary of defense for policy and a special correspondent for Asia Times. This article, which originally appeared on his Substack newsletter&nbsp, Weapons and Strategy, is republished with permission.

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Risking Trump wrath, Ukraine bombs US oil project in Russia – Asia Times

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Ukraine carried out a large-scale drone strike against the&nbsp, partially US-owned Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s ( CPC ) pumping station in Russia’s Krasnodar region early Monday ( February 17 ) morning.

Some were hitherto conscious of this job, let alone that it continued operating without any difficulties amidst the NATO-Russian substitute conflict in Ukraine and the West’s anti-Russian punishment, but it’s one of America’s most important regional opportunities. This bold strike, thus, risks incurring Donald Trump’s fury.

Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian leader and Security Council deputy president, made a&nbsp, a long Telegram post  on February 18 in which he claimed Zelensky was aware of the US connection to the CPC but that the large-scale drone strike was still carried out despite this.

In response to rumors that the US president will obstruct Ukraine’s peace with Russia, Medvedev claimed it was intended to be” a triple blow to American businesses, the oil business, and Trump personally.”

If Ukraine consents to Trump’s proposed US rights of its crucial material resources, Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, revealed that the country’s Volodymyr Zelensky is upset about Trump’s attempt to impose expectations on Ukraine that “would number to a higher discuss of Ukrainian GDP than compensation imposed on Germany at the Versailles Treaty.”

Russian MP Dmitry Belik&nbsp, speculated&nbsp, the day before Medvedev’s post that adversarial elements within the US “deep state” might have also cooked this provocation up with the UK to “get under ( Trump’s ) skin”.

Either way, the attack’s orchestrators likely also didn’t know that the CPC is integral to the energy security of America’s top ally, Israel, which received a significant amount of oil from the megaproject over the course of its last regional war against the&nbsp, Iran-led Resistance Axis.

Readers can learn more about that&nbsp, here, which analyzed data about Kazakhstan’s and even Russia’s oil exports to Israel during that 15-month-long conflict, which few were also hitherto aware of.

Given that Hamas and/or Hezbollah’s ceasefires are fragile, it is unlikely that Israel’s president will engage in any negotiations with Trump to ensure the CPC’s security in the event that the region turns back into conflict.

Trump might at least make a threat in the background to stop Ukraine from receiving financial and/or military aid unless it renounces its unilateral policy of attacking the Russian oil infrastructure.

The larger context of&nbsp, ongoing Russian-US peace talks over Ukraine&nbsp, could even lead to Moscow following suit by eschewing its own such attacks against that country’s energy infrastructure as&nbsp, the first step&nbsp, toward a possible ceasefire for facilitating the elections that could then&nbsp, lead to Zelensky’s replacement.

It, of course, remains to be seen exactly how Trump responds to Zelensky’s provocation, but it’s extremely unlikely that he’ll ignore it, especially considering how this also indirectly harms Israel.

Ukraine’s large-scale drone attack against the partially US-owned CPC will, therefore, probably end up being something it comes to regret. It would be premature to describe it as a game-changer, but it couldn’t have occurred at a worse time for Ukraine given the ongoing Russian-US talks over its future.

Given how detrimental it will foreseeably end up being for Ukraine’s interests at this crucial time in the conflict, those responsible for planning and approving the attack could even lose their jobs or worse.

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber&nbsp, here.

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Myanmar’s fluid war edging toward an endgame – Asia Times

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The State Administration Council ( SAC ) junta reversing its downward spiral in the wake of Myanmar’s military coup’s fourth anniversary, decisive Chinese intervention to rescue the regime and its off-ramp election strategy, resistance factions, ethnic and Bamar, sour relations, and bizarre combinations of all the above.

If there’s one word that adequately sums up the war in 2025, it’s “fluidity,” the uncertainty of a fragile balance of common weaknesses and antagonisms that leaves no room for comfortable forecast. Save, that is, for the clarity of the region’s accelerating financial decline and humanitarian crisis.

However, two starkly contrasting floor realities stand out against this shifting landscape. How they communicate with one another in the upcoming months will almost certainly determine the outcome of the conflict, possibly quickly and in a way that will probably foil Beijing’s efforts to implement a Pax Sinica over Myanmar.

The success of racial armies, or so-called cultural revolution organizations, has been the first and most widely praised for using normal forces and manoeuvre warfare to largely secure their own homelands.

Since the beginning of” Operation 1027″ in late 2023, the Kokang army in northeastern Shan state, its ally and neighbor, theTa’ang National Liberation Army ( TNLA ), the Kachin Independence Army (KIA ) in Kachin state, and, most strikingly, the Arakan Army ( AA ) in Rakhine have all inflicted crushing defeats on SAC forces to carve out autonomous territories.

The ethnic Bamar resistance in Myanmar’s opposition to developing a unified strategy to move a four-year-old guerrilla conflict waged by a plethora of local Peoples Defense Forces ( PDFs ) to the next level of mobile warfare waged by regular forces that might defeat the national army has been a different reality.

The anti-coup National Unity Government’s Ministry of Defense ( MoD ), a blatantly bureaucratic rather than operational body hampered by a lack of resources ( waffen and money ) and by the near inapprehension of imposing top-down command-and-control on the spontaneous upsurge of popular revolt that characterized the Spring Revolution in 2021, is at the center of the fault.

However, a lack of military experience, tactical vision, and specific personality have also contributed to a floor circumstance that appears unlikely to change in the near future.

Army garrisons with weak morale but rich firepower are more or less firmly buried into urban centers in today’s situation. While somewhat well-armed PDFs are increasingly able to tactically defeat regime forces in freed but institutionally dispersed hinterlands, they remain fundamentally devoid of any overall force structure or corporate plan to remove and defeat them.

The transitional areas where liberated racial territories border the national periphery and border the Myanmar heartland are the key to unlocking this impasse are undoubtedly those keys. These regions have now started to serve as defense buffer zones for tribal borderlands in the face of a perilous future.

ERO buffer zone scheme, which was a natural extension of the temple and education offered to Bamar children fleeing SAC crime in 2021, has involved cultural forces arming, supplying, and directing Bamar PDFs in and out of their own territories. It has also seen ERO products fighting alongside allied PDFs in Myanmar’s plains.

The northern Sagaing place, where the KIA has built up PDFs and participated in the record of Kawlin and Pinlebu, has seen the most buffer zone operations since 2022.

The TNLA’s involvement in mentoring and supporting the Mandalay PDF and moving with it into northern townships of the Mandalay region has been even more impressive in terms of cultural support for a second, somewhat large PDF pressure operating under cultural command-and-control.

The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA ) has since expanded operations northward on both sides of the river to Toungoo, the military’s Southern Regional Military Command ( RMC), to expand its reach beyond Karen state in the Sittaung valley of east Bago.

The most recent buffer zone established by the AA, first in the Arakan Yoma range’s hills bordering the Magwe and Bago regions with allied Chin PDFs, and then, since January this year, in townships inside the delta region of Ayeyarwady, is arguably the most crucial buffer zone to emerge.

The former area has a view of the Ayeyarwady River valley and Myanmar’s industrial heartland, where the military’s Directorate of Defense Industries ( better known by its Burmese acronym, Ka Pa Sa ), has long run a network of plants whose production of a wide range of munitions ultimately keeps the military on the ground. &nbsp,

Abutting Yangon region, the delta zone constitutes the economically crucial rice basket of Myanmar, an ethnically mixed area where Bamar, Karen and Rakhine communities co-exist and where, in the past, the KNLA has had deep roots.

The rapid response that the army command in Naypyidaw has responded to recent AA probing attacks reflects the strategic importance of both regions. A sizable tactical operations group, consisting of 360 members from the Meiktila-based 99th Light Infantry Division, was dispatched in mid-January to stop the AA’s advance across the Arakan Yoma, but by the first week of February, it had lost the majority of its workforce.

As the southwestern RMC attempted to stop AA advances along the Bay of Bengal coast and through the hills toward Thabaung township, reinforcements including a significant armored contingent from Hmawbi were rushed from the Yangon command in early January. Fighting is reportedly ongoing.

It seems unlikely that AA will attempt to storm large population centers in the Bamar heartland, such as Pathein in the Delta or Pyay in the Ayeyarwady valley, at this point in the conflict.

Other allied EROs are subject to similar restrictions. For instance, as part of Beijing’s wider plan to at least ensure the regime’s survival until it can hold the stage-managed elections it has touted since the coup, the TNLA is currently under heavy Chinese diplomatic pressure to reach a ceasefire with the SAC in the north.

However, in what might be referred to as a “buffer zone-plus” strategy, increased AA logistical support for allies reinforced by the insertion of tactical advisory teams and possibly even regular units is likely to result in defensive buffers being extended into areas of offensive guerrilla operations. &nbsp,

Given the strikingly short distances between the Delta rice basket and the strategically important Ayeyarwady Valley industrial belt, which are both strategically and economically important, this development has the potential to significantly shorten the war.

It is still up for debate whether the regime could withstand the disruption, let alone the loss, of significant industrial and agricultural centers if it were occurring at the same time as the stepped-up pressure in and beyond the KIA, TNLA, and KNLA, without acknowledging the need for a change of course.

It’s impossible to say when such a turning point will occur, including the resignation of SAC supremo and commander of the armed forces, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, or the initiation of negotiations, or both. &nbsp,

However, it might happen before the SAC’s electoral ploy tentatively scheduled for the end of this year as large-scale guerrilla operations led by powerful EROs are now threatened the core territories of a politically and economically bankrupt regime. &nbsp,

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N Korea missile puts all of US mainland in nuclear attack range – Asia Times

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North Korea is developing weapon defenses to attack the US island, which could sabotage US forces and raise concerns about a potential strategic shift in the Asian Peninsula’s power balance.

In a statement this month before the US Senate Armed Forces Committee, General Gregory Guillot, head of US Northern Command ( USNORTHCOM) and North American Aerospace Defense Command ( NORAD), said that North Korea’s growing intercontinental ballistic missile ( ICBM ) capabilities pose a direct threat to the US mainland, with its latest solid-propellant Hwasong-19 missile likely capable of delivering a nuclear payload to targets across North America.

The new aircraft’s solid-fuel design drastically reduces release preparation time, complicating proactive recognition and interception efforts.

Guillot warned that if North Korea’s arsenal exceeds present estimates, its rapid change from missile development to sequential production was soon outweigh US ballistic missile defenses.

He even made a point about the potential for modern exchanges between North Korea and Russia, as well as potential quid-for-quo agreements that would support the latter’s highly developed strategic weapons program.

The likelihood of continuous multi-domain threats to the US land is increased by these innovations and wider strategic cooperation between US adversaries, adding even more pressure on already-existing missile security systems.

In reply, Guillot emphasized the immediate need for developing next-generation missile defenses, including the development of NGI-based domain awareness technologies and the prompt deployment of NGI-based NGIs, to combat the threat of more complex adversary missiles.

In a November 2024 article for 38 North, Vann Van Diepen says North Korea’s Hwasong-19 ICBM represents a significant advance in the country’s strategic missile capabilities, likely incorporating a multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle ( MIRV ) system.

Van Diepen states that the larger solid-fuel Hwasong-19, compared to the Hwasong-18, has improved increase capability that increases payload capacity without extending range, as the earlier ICBM can now accomplish the US mainland. He notes that the Hwasong-19’s launch footage shows a probable post-boost vehicle ( PBV), essential for MIRV deployment.

He points out that a successful MIRV-equipped Hwasong-19 may increase the number of missiles per weapon, increase second-strike endurance, and put US missile security at risk. However, additional testing is required to ensure the MIRVs survive atmospheric rehabilitation.

But, Thomas Newdick argues in a The War Zone article from June 2024 that while it may be technically possible for North Korea to place several warheads on a weapon, it is more complicated to put them on many targets.

According to Newdick, it’s unclear whether North Korea has the skill to accurately place a bomb on a goal after it has been detonated from a nuclear weapon.

North Korea might have benefited greatly from the continuing conflict in Ukraine. According to Newsweek’s report from this month, North Korean nuclear missiles launched against Ukraine have increased in correctness since last year, hitting targets 50 to 100 feet away from them, up from their earlier range of 1 to 3 meters.

As North Korea transitions to published ICBM generation, it raises the possibility of overextending the US’s missile threats. After displaying 10-12 Hwasong-17 Squadrons during a nighttime rally in Pyongyang, Polititico reported in February 2023 that North Korea might have more than the US has ships.

Politico notes that if North Korea could meet four weapons on each weapon, those weapons could potentially destroy the US Ground-Based Midcourse Defense ( GMD) system, which has only 44 ships. The GMD has only demonstrated 55 % success in very scripted testing and frequently required three ships to intercept a single weapon, adding to the problem of limited ships.

Cognizant of US missile defense limitations, in January 2025, US President Donald Trump signed an Executive Order to build a US” Iron Dome”, a next-generation missile defense system incorporating space-based interceptors ( SBI ) to defeat hypersonic weapons, ballistic and cruise missiles, and other next-generation aerial attacks.

However, experts have disagreements regarding the US Iron Dome project’s viability and potential impact on instability or deterrence.

Ankit Panda claims in a Breaking Defense article this month that the US Iron Dome does not address the vulnerability issue and merely encourages US adversaries to develop new nuclear weapon delivery techniques, such as fractional orbital bombardment ( FOB ) systems.

In accordance with that, North Korea has developed the” Haeil” nuclear-armed underwater drone that is intended to enter enemy waters and detonate to produce a radioactive tsunami to obliterate enemy ships and ports. However, it is not clear whether North Korea’s Haeil is a real weapon or a propaganda ploy.

Additionally, Jessica West and Victoria Samson make mention for Breaking Defense in which they claim that space-based interceptors could fuel international agreements against the militarization of space.

Todd Harrison claims in a January 2025 American Enterprise Institute ( AEI ) article that while the cost of building a system of 1, 900 SBIs could reach US$ 11-27 billion, such a constellation could only intercept two incoming missiles while all other interceptors would remain out of range.

Harrison cites the absence issue where low-Earth orbit ( LEO ) satellites spend most of their time above the wrong region of the planet. Given the conflict between North Korean nuclear capabilities and US missile defenses, there are also divergent opinions on the latter’s position regarding its nuclear arsenal.

In a December 2024 article in the peer-reviewed Defense &amp, Security Analysis journal, Hwee-rhak Park and Wooyun Jo mention that North Korea has two objectives when developing its nuclear arsenal: first, to break US nuclear extended deterrence ( NED ) in the Korean Peninsula, and second, to reunify the Korean Peninsula under its regime.

Park and Jo mention that North Korea is concerned about its nuclear retaliation against the US mainland and that the US may reverse its NED position on the Korean Peninsula. They assert that the US may use tactical nuclear weapons only as long as North Korea forbids the use of nuclear weapons against South Korean military installations.

In the worst case, Park and Jo claim that North Korea might launch a number of nuclear weapons at South Korean cities to demoralize or cripple those forces before moving ground forces into the latter’s territory to compel their surrender.

They claim that North Korea can attempt to avoid US forces in South Korea while threatening a nuclear attack on them if they launch an offensive and compel the US to leave the Korean Peninsula. They point out, however, that the North Korean government would make the decision to use nuclear weapons against the US or South Korea.

Given those options, Park and Jo advise that the US and South Korea implement stronger nuclear deterrence measures, such as the permanent deployment of US nuclear ballistic missile submarines ( SSBN ) close to the Korean Peninsula, the deployment of nuclear gravity bombs and missiles in Guam, and sign a nuclear-sharing agreement to prepare US and South Korean forces for a nuclear war.

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Social media lens on Prabowo’s first 100 days – Asia Times

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Social media has become the new open place where people can express their expectations, concerns, and concerns about their governments in the age of modern politics.

Websites like X ( previously Twitter ), Reddit and TikTok are no longer just places for entertainment—they serve as indicators of public mood, shaping and reflecting political conversation in real time.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto was frequently discussed virtual by the South Eastern nation’s technologically savvy population during his first 100 days in workplace. Social media meetings offer valuable insights into both the difficulties and opportunities that his administration faces, despite considerable attention from the president.

According to social media survey study conducted by CARMA Asia, a Singapore-based world insights and knowledge company, online conversations about the ex-soldier government’s first 100 days identify a prevailing sense of dissatisfaction among netizens.

Much of the criticism stems from unmet expectations regarding economic reforms and his administration’s close ties to the former president, Joko Widodo, whose eldest son now serves as vice president.

Indonesian concerns about continuity rather than change are fueled by Prabowo’s inability to create a distinct political identity from Widodo’s legacy, according to the research findings.

Source: CARMA

Prabowo’s administration assumed office in October 2024 and immediately ignited online debates. While some users praised the peaceful transition of power to a democratic system, many others questioned Prabowo’s history of human rights, corruption concerns, and dubious cabinet appointments.

The tone for the months that came after this early discourse was. In November, the administration’s handling of the Thomas Lembong corruption trial, involving an ex-trade minister, and the Gus Miftah controversy, wherein the president’s special envoy was caught on video mocking an elderly tea seller, further eroded public confidence.

The abrupt cancellation of Yos Suprapto’s” Revival: Land for Food Sovereignty” art exhibition at the National Gallery in December was a watershed online moment, triggering the most significant spike in negative sentiment, the research showed. The artist refused to remove five paintings that critically depicted Widodo, causing its cancellation.

The government’s request to remove the artworks was viewed not merely as an isolated incident, but as a troubling signal about the administration’s stance on artistic freedom and public discourse.

These incidents, highlighted by figures like former minister Susi Pudjiastuti, show social media’s power to shape politics and hold leaders accountable.

January saw a slight improvement in sentiment, which may give Prabowo’s government a glimmer of hope, but the persistent undercurrent of negativity suggests deeper structural issues that time alone are unlikely to solve.

The former president Widodo’s nomination as” Most Corrupt Person of the Year” by The Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project and Prabowo’s defensive response highlight the delicate balance between upholding free speech and maintaining transparency.

Source: CARMA

One thing is clear about Prabowo’s early months in office: Indonesia’s digital revolution is transforming the way politics unfolds. And Prabowo’s administration can ill-afford to ignore the power of online discourse in influencing the nation’s collective consciousness.

Each decision, whether related to policy, governance or public statements, is subject to immediate scrutiny and reaction from a highly engaged Indonesian digital population.

Prabowo’s administration must acknowledge that today’s governance requires both decisive leadership and the ability to effectively engage with public sentiment in order to navigate this new reality. Digital engagement is no longer optional, it is an essential component of modern leadership.

In the coming months, Prabowo’s response to this reality may well determine how he will lead Indonesia.

Methodology: The content collected and analyzed focused on high-quality, high-engagement posts from major social media platforms, including Twitter, Reddit, and Facebook. Volume, engagement, and post sentiment are among the metrics that were analyzed. The full report can be viewed here.

Divika Jethmal is an analyst at CARMA, a global leader in media intelligence that empowers our clients to make informed decisions and achieve their public relations objectives with precision. She provides actionable insights and unrivaled media analysis. Visit CARMA’s website here.

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How China can really pivot to the Global South – Asia Times

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The Trump administration’s most recent pronouncements have reaffirmed the need for Taiwanese companies to reduce their reliance on the British market.

Trump’s 10 % more taxes on all Chinese exports have consistently invited Chinese measures. And the industry are still concerned that Trump will continue to impose the 60 % tariffs he promised to establish while campaigning. &nbsp,

Trump’s decision to eliminate the$ 800 de minimis hole on items shipped into the US further demonstrated the risk of destabilizing Sino-American business. If he did not hold application at the last minute, the US company of Taiwanese cross-border e-commerce companies like Temu and Shein, making up 60 % of all de minimis items, would have been wiped out overnight. &nbsp,

Western leaders may follow suit to plant a glut of manufactured products that have been rerouted from America as Trump carefully restrains Chinese imports. The European Union’s decision to impose tariffs on “unfairly discounted” Chinese electric vehicles in October 2024 may serve as a launching point for an extremely skewed business partnership with China, particularly as Europe seeks to develop its strategic autonomy in high-value, future-oriented industries supporting its modern and green energy goals. &nbsp,

In fact, the EU has launched a number of anti-dumping investigations into Chinese goods, including wood, after a Commission on EU Competitiveness statement had made it clear that China was a threat to the tech sector in Europe. It would be reasonable to assume that at least some of these will result in sector-specific tariffs on Chinese imports, related to Trump’s recently announced 25 % cover tariff on steel and aluminum goods. &nbsp,

The Chinese trade environment has quickly been shifted from the West to the International South as a result of the more stringent restrictions on Chinese goods in America and Europe. Data shows that, from 2022 to 2023, Chinese exports to the US declined by 22.5 %, with those to Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Canada, Australia, Japan and the Netherlands falling above or near double digits.

Imports to the UAE, India, Turkey, Russia, and Central Asia all increased above or practically triple digits, indicating that business relationships are tighter as a result of shifting supply stores brought on by Western sanctions for the Ukrainian conflict.

Yet as consumers praise the high-quality products China is now provide for low prices, local underdevelopment from South America to Southeast Asia is a result of Chinese shipments of cars and clothes.

But, as China Inc. moves to the International South, it is a victim of a labor shortage that is well-versed in emerging markets. Foreign companies find it challenging to locate their products because there aren’t enough Chinese persons studying, working, and living in several International South countries.

Without “bicultural” workers who can bridge native preferences and Chinese production, Chinese companies may struggle to keep selling goods that satisfy consumer demand. &nbsp,

This grassroots-level transition to the Global South is first and important hindered by the persistent Chinese aversion to American training. Generations of Taiwanese young people have studied and worked in the West since the government’s financial reforms in the late 1970s, before moving back to China to form some of its most creative and successful businesses.

The same haigui phenomenon continues today, with the vast majority of the country’s nearly 1 million strong study abroad population based in the US ( 349, 000 ), Australia ( 166, 000 ), the UK ( 135, 000 ), Japan ( 121, 000 ) and Canada ( 105, 000 ). &nbsp,

In comparison, the number of Chinese acquainted with the Global South is plainly lacking. Despite increasing attention due to pricing and physical contact, Southeast Asia is just home to approximately 50, 000 Taiwanese students, with more than quarter in Singapore. There is little information publicly available about Chinese kids in the Middle East, Africa, and South America, which suggests an underpopulated people. &nbsp,

China’s absence of a grass-roots appearance in the World South is not limited to students. According to estimates, there are nearly 1 million and half a million ethnic Chinese life in Africa and the Middle East, both.

Also, the newness of Chinese areas in these areas means they are less morally included, despite obvious challenges in defining Chineseness. The Chinese real existence in the Global South is minute next to the well-established, 5.6 million-strong Taiwanese American society.

Recognizing this lack of familiarity with the Global South requires a two-pronged method. First, Chinese companies may work more closely with each other to use the growing number of international students who attend Chinese universities.

In 2023, China hosted more than 300, 000 American students, with some understanding about the Chinese language and traditions while acquiring professional experience. Foreign companies should positively look to employ these graduates to help them with international expansion plans for their nations and regions of origin.

Next, the Chinese govt may encourage young people to look for study abroad opportunities in the Global South to advance their careers abroad without relying on the West. Measures like recognizing the academic credentials of more prestigious colleges in the International South and awarding government-funded scholarships particularly to non-Western institutions had become steps in the right direction. &nbsp,

Predictably, many Chinese students hoping for the best training their money can buy are wary of the value offered by Global South-based educational establishments. The first step might be to encourage more students to consider Western institutions based on the Global South in order to lessen these concerns.

Due to the combination of English-language programs offered by British and American universities and financial incentives for Chinese students to stay in the city after graduation to advance their careers, Dubai has grown in popularity, if it is still relatively unknown, for young Chinese people.

By this logic, top Western programs in other parts of the Global South, such as Northwestern in Qatar, NYU Abu Dhabi and CMU Africa, deserve more attention. With a mix of Global South students in China and Chinese students in the Global South, China Inc should be able to find a future workforce that is culturally adept at facilitating China’s shifting away from the West.

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