At 70, Godzilla’s warning to humanity is still urgent – Asia Times

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The 2024 Nobel Peace Prize has been awarded to Nihon Hidankyo, the Japan Confederation of A- and H-bomb Sufferers Organizations. Many of these witnesses have spent their lives educating people about the dangers of nuclear war, but the majority of the world did n’t want to hear it at first.

The Nobel committee stated in its statement that” the destiny of those who survived the infernos of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were longer kept secret and misunderstood. In a campaign to combat this destruction, native nuclear victims created Nihon Hidankyo in 1956.

Japan produced yet another notice: a tall demon who topples Tokyo with blows of treated breathing around the same time Nihon Hidankyo was founded. For the past 70 years, the animated animated series” Godzilla” launched a series that has urged viewers to take better care of the Earth.

We study famous Chinese media and business ethics and ecology, but we found a common interest in Godzilla after the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and panic at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. In our perspective, these movies portray a crucial information about Earth’s creeping climate catastrophe. Only a few survivors remain to inform society about the effects of atomic weaponry, but Godzilla will always be there.

into the nuclear time

By 1954, Japan had survived nearly a century of nuclear contact. Chinese people were impacted by a number of US nuclear testing in the Bikini Atoll in addition to the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

When the US tested the first hydrogen explosive ever made, it was far beyond the original injury area. Although far from the prohibited area, Happy Dragon No. Irradiated dust was used to encase five fishing boats in Japan. One man passed away within the year after all of them fell ill. Their tragic event received a lot of attention in the Chinese media as it progressed.

More than 2.5 times what researchers had anticipated was the result of the Castle Bravo gas bomb check on March 1, 1954, which produced an explosion amounted to 15 gigawatts of TNT. Numerous nuclear dust was released into the atmosphere as a result.

A field in” Godzilla,” where helpless Japanese vessels are shattered by an unseen force, echoes this situation.

” Godzilla” is full of strong social debates, difficult figures and cutting-edge unique effects for its time. Characters in the movie spend a lot of time discussing their commitments to one another, to society, and to the atmosphere.

This sincerity, like the movie itself, was nearly buried outside of Japan by an change personality, 1956’s” Godzilla, King of the Monsters”! The 1954 movie was ripped off, slow images removed, new footage shot with Canadian artist Raymond Burr, spliced it all together, and dubbed their own action-oriented text into English.

Before the Chinese movie’s 50th anniversary celebration in 2004, people outside of Japan knew this type as” Godzilla.”

From rays to waste

While” King of the Monsters”! traveled the world,” Godzilla” spawned lots of Chinese sequels and spinoffs. In the Chinese movies, Godzilla gradually transitioned from a violent monster to a massive defender of humanity, a change that was also seen in the early US-made movies.

In 1971, a new, younger artistic crew tried to define Godzilla for a new age with” Godzilla vs Hedorah“. Yoshimitsu Banno, the chairman, joined the film’s crew to promote a lengthy finished documentary about natural disasters. He was inspired by that expertise to switch from nuclear-related issues to waste.

World War II was fading from the recollection of the general public. The large Anpo demonstrations of 1959 and 1960, which had gathered up to one-third of the Chinese population in opposition to the registration of the US-Japan safety treaty, were equally as effective. Housewives who were present included those who were upset about the reports that Happy Dragon No. fish had been caught. 5 had been sold in Asian food outlets.

At the same time, waste was soaring. In 1969, Michiko Ishimure published Paradise in the Sea of Sorrow: Our Minamata Disease, a publication that’s often viewed as a Chinese equivalent to Silent Spring, Rachel Carson’s economic common. Many people in Japan were shocked to see how their government had repeatedly failed to protect the public from industrial waste when Ishimure’s artistic depictions of life were destroyed by the Chisso Corporation’s dumping of methyl mercury into the Shiranui Sea’s Minamata Bay from 1932 to 1968 – poisoning tens of thousands of people who ate local shrimp.

” Godzilla vs Hedorah” is about Godzilla’s fights against Hedorah, a crash-landed mysterious that grows to monstrous length by feeding on dangerous silt and other types of pollutants. A woman opens the movie by jazzing up about the economic apocalypse as young people dance in an underground club with abandon.

An inconsistent movie that features all from an expanded shot of an oil-slick kitten to an active sequence where Godzilla strangely levitates itself while breathing in its irradiated breath continues this confluence of hopelessness and hedonism.

After Godzilla defeats Hedorah at the end of the picture, it pulls a handful of dangerous gunk out of Hedorah’s neck, gazes at the silt, then turns to gaze at its human spectators – both those on and the show’s audience. The message is clear: Do n’t just sing lazily about imminent doom – shape up and do something.

” Godzilla vs. Hedorah” bombed at the box office but became a cult hit over time. In two individual Godzilla companies, it is echoed now by the placement of Godzilla between Earth and those who would hurt it.

The original Japanese studio that produced” Godzilla” is the source of one line of movies. The other line is produced by US licensees, which create eco-blockbusters that meld the environmental impact of” Godzilla” with the spectacle of” King of the Monsters.”

A meltdown of public trust

The 2011 Fukushima disaster has now become part of the Japanese people’s collective memory. The damaged nuclear plant is still being cleaned up and decommissioned despite controversy over ongoing releases of radioactive water used to cool the facility. While thousands of workers remove topsoil, branches, and other materials to decontaminate these areas, some residents are permitted to visit their homes but are unable to move back there.

Before Fukushima, Japan derived one-third of its electricity from nuclear power. After the disaster, public attitudes toward nuclear energy became more volatile, especially as investigations revealed that regulators had underestimated risks at the site. Although Japan needs to import 90 % of the energy it uses, over 70 % of the populace is currently opposed to nuclear power.

The first Japanese” Godzilla” film released after the Fukushima disaster,” Shin Godzilla” ( 2016 ), reboots the franchise in a contemporary Japan with a new type of Godzilla, in an eerie echo of the damages of and governmental response to Fukushima’s triple disaster. A Japanese government official and an American special envoy collaborate to stop the newly named Godzilla in its tracks before a fearful world unleashes its nuclear weapons once more when the Japanese government is left leaderless and in disarray after initial counterattacks on the Japanese government.

Their success suggests that successful recovery requires the participation of individuals, not national governments, which are crucial for a number of major disasters.

At the University of Notre Dame, Amanda Kennell serves as an adjunct professor of East Asian languages and cultures, and Jessica McManus Warnell serves as a university’s adjunct professor of organizational management.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Lessons South Korea can learn from the Iran-Israel conflict – Asia Times

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South Korea, significantly like Israel, has long depended on American security systems, especially the technology used in air defense systems, as the basis of its security plan. US technical skills, particularly in the form of advanced fighter jets, weapon security systems and intelligence-sharing, has provided both countries with a tactical advantage over their opponents.

However, as new advances in the continuing conflict between Israel and Iran have demonstrated, increased reliance on technology you immediately change into a major risk. The proper landscape has shifted considerably.

Iran, with its expanding weapon features, has significantly challenged Israel’s weather threats, including the US-made Aegis and Patriot techniques, reducing their overall success.

However, the development of next-generation weapon intrusion systems, such as the fly phase interceptor ( GPI), is also several years from full deployment. Israel is still vulnerable to missile attacks until these systems are operationally ready, which highlights the crucial gap between the theoretical advances in technology and the practical application of them in real-world conflict situations.

This ominous real serves as a cautionary tale for South Korea, which encounters problems comparable to those of North Korea. In a time when local opponents are rapidly closing the modern gap, both&nbsp, countries are increasingly reliant on American defense technologies.

So, South Korea can draw important lessons from the ongoing fight between Iran and Israel, particularly in terms of political engagement, technical dependency, and defense strategy.

There are important lessons to be drawn from the Iran-Israel war as South Korea navigates its own special safety issues, especially in the framework of its antagonistic relationship with North Korea. These training can help South Korea develop a more stable and self-sufficient security system for the future while avoiding tactical pitfalls.

1. Tech limits in security planning

There are limits to how much superior security technology can protect a country from evolving threats, which is a key takeaway from the Iran-Israel discord.

Israel and South Korea have historically relied heavily on the most sophisticated security networks provided by supporters like the United States. In Israel’s situation, National air superiority was again a core of its protection strategy, but the continuing conflict with Iran has exposed important vulnerabilities. Iran’s missile improvements have posed a significant challenge to Israel’s defense systems.

The US has recently provided Israel with the THAAD ( Terminal High Altitude Area Defense ) system, hoping it will bolster Israel’s protection. But, experts have previously predicted that this system’s protection against Iranian fast weapons may be limited. So, despite having some of the nation’s most advanced technologies and maintaining a modern advantage over its opponents, Israel now finds itself extremely vulnerable.

This demonstrates the fundamental limitations of technology in protecting a country. To protect itself, a country requires far more than just outstanding protection technology.

Israel made the mistake of over-relying on technologies and additional help, while neglecting the development of human martial resources and capabilities, leaving itself resilient.

In Gaza, Jewish forces struggled with cooperation during industrial warfare, allowing militant organizations to maintain weight. In southern Lebanon, despite advanced weaponry, the Israeli Defense Forces ( IDF) are now facing significant challenges against Hezbollah’s guerrilla tactics, highlighting a lack of preparedness for asymmetric warfare.

For South Korea, which itself relies heavily on US-made F-35 fighter jet among other British martial systems, the situation presents a clear warning stories. In today’s political environment, advanced military systems is no longer the exclusive realm of a few effective countries. Iran and North Korea, two nations with advanced technical prowess, especially in missile and cyberwarfare, are just two examples.

South Korea may concentrate on developing long-term capabilities that can withstand regional shifts in military technology to guarantee a durable and enduring protection. To successfully manage the ambiguities of an expanding military systems landscape, one should emphasize self-reliance, integrating people resources and technological advancements, and avoiding risk.

2. Strengthening indigenous floor fight capabilities

Another important lesson for South Korea is the crucial necessity of upholding solid ground combat abilities. The Iran-Israel issue highlights the possibility that air force might no longer be enough to win battles in contemporary war. Ground wars, involving well-trained and equipped individual men, remain key to any military issue.

Israel has neglected to develop its ground forces because it is too comfortable in its air force and is now finding it difficult to properly engage non-state actors on the ground. Israel’s challenges in earth conflict are evident in the 2006 Lebanon War, the 2014 Gaza issue, and the 2024 battle with Hamas. Israel faced strong resistance from Hezbollah and Hamas in urban and guerrilla warfare, which revealed gaps in training and readiness for close-quarters battles and tunnel warfare.

These examples show how neglecting ground forces left Israel vulnerable, even against non-state actors. If Israel had to wage a ground war against a state actor like Iran, the consequences would be much worse.

South Korea must be aware that air dominance can be temporary, and that the most important battles are most likely to be fought on the ground, in the context of a potential conflict with North Korea. Therefore, it is crucial to create and strengthen indigenous ground forces that are both prepared and fully equipped to defend the homeland.

3. Strengthening self-reliance and diversifying military partnerships

Israel’s experience emphasizes the value of not overrelying on outside forces for national defense. Israel must ultimately fight its own battles, despite the United States ‘ continued support for it with important intelligence, cutting-edge technology, and diplomatic assistance.

Israel’s efforts to strengthen military ties with countries like Egypt and Jordan, which would have added more strategic depth to its conflicts with non-state actors, have been missed due to its focus on bolstering ties with the US and Europe. Israel’s ability to adapt quickly to changing dynamics in the Middle East has been limited by this lack of regional collaboration.

Despite Israel’s status as a top priority for US policymakers, a combination of political, economic, military and geopolitical factors has limited America’s ability to provide significant on-the-ground assistance.

South Korea cannot afford to commit the same error. American military assistance – especially in terms of technology and intelligence-sharing – is vital. However, in any upcoming conflicts with North Korea, South Korean forces may bear the bulk of the cost of combat.

This requires that South Korea concentrate on creating a more independent defense force. Delays in deploying the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system and slow progress in advanced surveillance capabilities, like drones, expose vulnerabilities.

The South Korean navy’s corvette Cheonan was torpedoed in 2010 by North Korea, highlighting deficiencies in naval readiness. In order to be ready for future conflicts, South Korea must strengthen its military might and strengthen its independence. In the midst of a conflict, it cannot afford to assume that US military support will be sufficient.

The US’s domestic political and economic situation has grown more complex. In both foreign policy and other areas, bipartisanship has decreased. South Korea cannot base its defense strategy on the shifting priorities of the American political elite.

Moreover, the US is becoming entangled in numerous global conflicts, diminishing its ability to focus on the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea must actively work to strengthen military ties with neighboring nations like India, Japan, and Australia, despite the importance and importance of the US-Korea alliance.

Israel’s over-reliance on the US and Europe serves as a warning. Israel has faced limitations in US support despite being a top priority for American policymakers due to a number of factors. South Korea needs to take lessons from this instance and avoid similar setbacks.

To ensure its security, South Korea needs to strengthen its domestic military capabilities, particularly in ground, naval, space and cyber warfare. Regardless of external assistance, building a self-sufficient defense force is essential for maintaining readiness. To avoid economic strain from purchasing pricey foreign weapons, investing in its own defense industry should be top of the list.

4. addressing demographic issues in military recruitment

South Korea is currently confronted with a unique problem by a declining population. Israel, with a population growth rate of about 1.8 % ( 2023 ), maintains a steady pool of military recruits, thanks to natural increase and immigration. In contrast, South Korea’s population is shrinking, with a growth rate around -0.2 % ( 2023 ). This demographic decline puts the strength of South Korea’s military forces at risk, as well as the availability of young people for military service.

South Korea can draw lessons from Israel’s approach to sustaining a stable population. To ensure a robust military, it is urgent to encourage higher birth rates, revive family values, and foster a strong sense of national duty. Addressing these demographic concerns is essential to ensuring the long-term development of a strong defense force.

5. The role of diplomacy in resolving peaceful conflicts

A significant lesson that Israel can impart to South Korea is about balancing military might with diplomacy. Israel’s over-reliance on military solutions has led to prolonged conflicts and isolation. South Korea ought to steer clear of this path. While maintaining military might is required, managing tensions with North Korea and other regional powers requires diplomacy.

South Korea should embrace peaceful conflict resolution, guided by its values of universal brotherhood. In contrast to Israel, which has occasionally relied on its sense of being a” chosen people,” South Korea can rely on its tradition of Hanguk ingan, which emphasizes equality and shared humanity, as a moral guide for its diplomatic efforts. Establishing open communication channels with North Korea, China, and Russia can help stop conflicts by avoiding the pitfalls of using only military measures.

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Nobel economics prize awards notion of Western supremacy – Asia Times

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For their significant contributions to how organizations influence economic growth, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson were each awarded the 2024 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. Some may argue that it was long overdue to honor these scientists the Nobel.

One of the most frequently mentioned in finance is the document that served as the foundation for their work. Acemoglu and Robinson’s following book, Why Governments Fail, has also been enormously important.

Congratulations are in order in that regard because these works have sparked a lively discussion about the relationship between cultural institutions and economic development. They have even drawn a lot of censure, though. It is appropriate to identify the flaws in their analysis in the wake of the award.

The most significant criticism centers on the relationship between a nation’s level of social development and the quality of its political institutions. Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson’s job split organisations into two groups: “inclusive” and “extractive”.

Equitable institutions – such as those that enforce property privileges, protect politics and control corruption – foster economic growth, according to the laureates. In contrast, industrial institutions, which give rise to a higher concentration of power and limited social freedom, get to focus resources in the hands of a tiny elite and therefore stifle socioeconomic development.

The winners assert that the establishment of diverse establishments has had a beneficial long-term impact on economic growth. In fact, these organizations are present mainly in high-income nations in the west.

A big problem with this study, however, is the state that certain organizations are a requirement for economic growth.

Mushtaq Khan, a professor of economics at Soas, University of London, has analysed Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson’s work thoroughly. He contends that it primarily demonstrates that today’s high-income nations perform better on institutional standards from the West, rather than that economic growth was achieved as a result of the establishment of inclusive institutions by state.

In fact, there are numerous instances of nations growing quickly without having these diverse organizations in place as a prerequisite for development. South Asian states such as Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan are good examples. Most lately, so too is China.

The problem epidemic in China during the development process was detailed in Yuen Yuen Ang’s award-winning books on the subject. In response to this year’s Nobel Prize, Ang went so far as to claim that the laureates ‘ theory does not adequately account for growth in both China and the West. She makes the case that during the creation process in the US, establishments were smeared with corruption.

Ignoring the cruelty of colonization

Governments are not bad to do some of the diverse organizations outlined in Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson’s job. Another alarming aspect of their research is that it legitimizes American institutions and, at worst, colonialism and colonization.

Their job has, however, been criticized for not paying attention to the cruelty of imperialism. To know this criticism, we must dig a little deeper into their procedures.

The laureates establish their state by comparing settler colonies to non-settler colonies for long-term development. In resident provinces, such as the US, Canada and Australia, Europeans established diverse institutions. But in non-settler provinces, which include large pieces of Africa and Latin America, Europeans established industrial organizations.

Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson place out that, over time, settler provinces do better. Western institutions are therefore better for growth, they argue.

However, it’s a secret that the laureates do not explain colonization in more general terms given that the process of colonization is a key component of their papers.

Years of murder, in many cases evoking the genocide of local populations, predated the development of such institutions yet in settler colonies, where equitable institutions were gradually established. Should n’t this be taken into account when developing?

An illustration showing changing economic fortunes.
According to this year’s awardees, Europeans settled in the poorest and most poorly crowded areas, and introduced organizations that contributed to long-term success. Johan Jarnestad / Nobel Prize Outreach

Instead of arguing whether imperialism is good or bad, Acemoglu said,” We note that different colonial methods have resulted in different institutional trends that have persisted over moment,” the awardee added.

Why does Acemoglu not care whether imperialism is good or bad, as some might discover from this statement? But for those familiar with the inner workings of the economics discipline, this statement does n’t come as a surprise.

Unfortunately, the absence of a ethical glass or value judgments has unfortunately become a badge of honor in mainstream economics. This is a more important aspect of the discipline, which in turn explains why economy has become more remote and isolated from different social sciences.

The Nobel prize in economics, which really was n’t among the five original Nobel awards, also illustrates this problem. The list of previous winners is small in terms of both geographical and organisational scope, primarily made up of economists who are graduates of economics faculties at a select few elite US universities.

Additionally, a recent study found that economics awards are much more concentrated in the administrative and regional areas than in other academic areas. Nearly all of the major award winners have had to travel through one of the major US institutions ( with a cap of less than ten ) throughout their careers.

This month’s Nobel Prize in economics is no exception. Perhaps this is why it seems like each year the winner is chosen over those who ask “how does a change in changing X affect variable Y” rather than posing complex questions about colonialism, imperialism, or capitalism and waging a challenge on the legitimacy of European institutions.

Jostein Hauge is associate professor in development research, University of Cambridge

The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Now’s not the time to short the yuan – Asia Times

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As the” Trump business” returns to create fear of political upheaval great once, global hedge funds are racing to little China’s yuan money.

They are betting that Trump’s designed combination of tax and business measures will boost local rise if elected, and that China may seek to become more dynamic.

However, betting on a weaker yuan could prove to be a lot of a mistake if the last several decades of the Xi Jinping age are any link.

Let’s begin with the Trump estimate. Obviously, the November 5 US vote is a true toss-up. One time, polls suggest Kamala Harris ‘ Democrats may emerge. The second, hp emerges to telephone a Trump 2.0 White House is coming.

This year, the speed seems to be on Trump’s part. In the US$ 300 billion dollar options business, hedge funds are placing higher stakes on a weaker renminbi. Yuan uncertainty is currently at its highest level since the middle of 2022.

However, it seems as though Trump’s 2017-2021 phrase will be forgotten due to fears that he might prefer a stronger dollar. Trump was unwaveringly in favor of a lower US transfer rate to benefit American companies and stifle China.

It’s also worth remembering Trump’s abuse on the US Federal Reserve. Trump was angry that his chosen Fed chair, Jerome Powell, continued father Janet Yellen’s price hikes. He then browbeat Powell into cutting rates, adding stimulus in 2019 that the economy did n’t need.

On top of the Fed’s broken trust, the US federal debt soared under Trump and present President Joe Biden, then topping$ 35 trillion.

Include social fragmentation to the picture until January 20, 2025, when the next management will take office. Even if Trump loses, no significant journalist thinks he will go away quietly.

One of the causes of Fitch Ratings ‘ cancellation of its AAA standing on US bill, joining Standard & Poor’s, was the fallout from the uprising on January 6, 2021, which Trump fomented. The next rating agency to assess America AAA is now Moody’s Investors Service, the source of the current query.

The Beijing component of this riddle is more crucial, though. There are at least four causes why Beijing is unlikely to help the yuan to fall very little.

One, a falling yuan may make payment on onshore bill more difficult for very obliged organizations like home builders. That would boost proxy risks in Asia’s biggest market. The last thing Xi wants is to see# ChinaEvergrande trending once more in the internet.

Two, the economic easing needed to sustain the yuan’s declines — especially with the Fed cutting rates, also— could harm Xi’s deleveraging efforts. Xi’s interior group has made significant strides over the past few years in eradicating financial abuse.

This explains why Xi and Premier Li Qiang have been reluctant to permit the People’s Bank of China ( PBOC ) to cut rates more forcefully, despite China Inc.’s reputation for deflationary pressures.

Three, increasing the yuan’s global usage is probably Xi’s biggest economic transformation achievement since 2012. In&nbsp, 2016, China&nbsp, won a place for the yuan in the International Monetary Fund’s” special&nbsp, drawing&nbsp, right” box, joining the dollar, yen, euro and pound.

Since next, the stock’s apply in business and banking has soared. Increased easing then may dent trust in the yuan, slowing its headway toward reserve-currency position.

Fourth, it may produce China a more contentious and important issue during a distinctly divisive US election. Trump’s Republicans and Democrats who are close to Harris concur that they must be strong with Beijing.

Beijing’s claims that it is manipulating the renminbi lower could stoke bipartisan support in Washington. especially in light of the Trump administration’s plan to impose 60 % taxes on all products made in China.

” As well as levies, the badge of ‘ money manipulator’ may be a second red flag for an Eastern economy”, said Robert Carnell, Asia-region head of research at ING Bank.

A weaker renminbi would be used by Xi to sign a sense of anxiety and anguish. Certainly the stories Xi wants international investors to be thinking about as the year 2025 draws near.

Otherwise, Xi and Li have been ratcheting up the signal without triggering sounds of 2015, 2008 and additional past incidents of large pro-growth “bazooka” storms.

Earlier this month, Beijing cut borrowing costs, slashed businesses ‘ supply need numbers, reduced mortgage costs and unveiled market-support resources to put a floor under share costs. Bolder fiscal stimulus steps are being mulled, too.

On Thursday ( October 17 ), Team Xi raised the loan quota for unfinished housing projects to 4 trillion yuan ($ 562 billion ), nearly double the previous amount.

The bump was less than markets wanted, as evidenced by Chinese stocks falling into” correction” territory this week. The&nbsp, CSI 300 Index&nbsp, ended Tuesday down 1.1 %, bringing its declines since an October 8 high to roughly 11 %.

The bigger issue, of course, is repairing the balance sheets of giant property developers.

” They’re still trying to talk the talk, with more noise about stabilizing the property market”, said Stephen Innes, an economist at SPI Asset Management.”

As Thursday’s housing moves were” rolled on, it was clear: traders were not thrilled,” Innes said”. Let’s be honest, though – China’s property mess is n’t something that can be patched up with a few speeches and half-baked measures.”

According to Morgan Stanley economist Robin Xing, “resolving the debt issue is a crucial step in stopping a key deflationary downward spiral,” while adding that direct demand stimulus is equally crucial.

Team Xi has made several commitments over the past few years to develop a method to remove toxic assets from property developers ‘ balance sheets.

Beijing has in fact demonstrated what is required to turn things around: a bold plan to boost the finances of high-quality developers, encouraging mergers and acquisitions, promoting property investment so that more people no longer consider real estate as their only option, and establishing social safety nets to encourage households to spend more and save less.

Indeed, over the past few decades, there have been numerous crises from which to draw lessons. They include Japan’s efforts to remove toxic loans from banks ‘ balance sheets in the early 2000s, as well as the US’s use of the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, to deal with troubled assets after 2008.

More fundamentally, Xi’s reform team must step up efforts to recalibrate growth engines away from exports toward innovation and high-niche industries.

Investors should be reassured that the brutal crackdowns on tech companies have ended in 2020. China also needs to shed its adversity toward the fundamental level of economic transparency that the world’s funds demand.

But as Xi and Li understand, a weaker yuan wo n’t bring about any of these big-picture reforms. It might give China a little more time to achieve its 5 % growth goal this year, but at a cost that Chinese leaders appear unwilling to pay.

There are myriad other reasons why, in the US, one reason is to believe that the dollar’s outlook will be more red ink than black.

One of the issues with the US national debt, which is now twice the size of China’s annual gross domestic product, is that it is two times that large. However, there are a good chance that Trump will backtrack on some of the financial planning moves he made during the first, only to have them halted by economic advisers in a second term.

One was Trump considering canceling large sums of the US owed to Beijing in order to punish Xi’s economy in the midst of trade negotiations. These considerations were hardly ever out of the blue.

In May 2016, six months before he was first elected, &nbsp, Trump, a serial bankruptcy offender as a businessman, floated reneging on US debt in a&nbsp, CNBC&nbsp, interview.

” I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal,” &nbsp, Trump&nbsp, said”. And if the economy was good, it was good. So therefore, you ca n’t lose.”

Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi spoke for many when he called the idea of reneging on US debt” complete craziness” that” would be financial Armageddon.”

Trump&nbsp, 1.0 considered a dollar-to-yuan devaluation of the kind that Argentina or Vietnam might employ. In April, for example, Politico&nbsp, reported that Trump 2.0’s inner circle is” actively debating” an Argentina-like pivot at the behest of advisors like&nbsp, Robert&nbsp, Lighthizer, Trump’s former international trade representative.

Yet, instead of” America first,” such a detour might do more to advantage China in the longer run. Buenos Aires would be operating a Group of Seven economy if devaluation were a method for prosperity. Turkey and Zimbabwe would be booming. As Asia’s largest economy, Indonesia would be giving China a run for its money.

To China’s advantage, the US trying this gambit would increase inflationary pressures and expose the dollar’s status as a reserve currency.

Investors generally believe that the policies they are proposing to promote US reindustrialization, such as steep tariffs on goods imported, will tend to result in dollar strength in comparison to other currencies, according to a note from Global Analysts.

But, they added, the” likely consequences of this disconnect include a potential conflict between the White House and Fed, and a diplomatic drive to&nbsp, weaken the US dollar, possibly involving a new version of the 1985 &nbsp, Plaza&nbsp, Accord.”

Trying such a gambit in 2024 would be extraordinarily destabilizing. The odds are very low that Xi would choose to pursue it. China recalls how Japan’s acceptance of a stronger yen ravaged its economy for decades to come, aside from the Communist Party’s aversion to being pushed around.

Even so, hedge funds that are betting on a weaker yuan in the months ahead might be ignoring the bigger picture of the Xi era.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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US doubles down on Patriot to hold China, Russia at bay – Asia Times

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The US Army has halted plans to replace its Patriot missile system, opting to enhance the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement ( PAC-3 MSE ) interceptor instead.

Despite being successful in battling Russian fast missiles, the PAC-3 MSE also faces challenges in retaliation for superior weapon threats and absorption attacks. The decision, announced during the Association of the US Army’s quarterly meeting, was taken due to the alternative agency’s high prices, Defense News reported.

The Integrated Air and Missile Defense ( IAMD) system, which includes the Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor ( LTAMDS ) and the Integrated Battle Command System, will continue to evolve, according to the report.

It will concentrate on improving the PAC-3 MSE to withstand future challenges, including the anticipated fast and agile nuclear weapons by 2040.

According to Defense News, the US Army is considering ensuring greater integration between the Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Systems in order to improve combat space management. This will allow the use of both interceptors in the face of superior threats.

The Missile Defense Agency ( MDA ) has already carried out some integration work in the Indo-Pacific theater, demonstrating the potential advantages of this strategy.

The Patriot weapon has a combined fight record in Ukraine, showing usefulness against Russian fast missiles&nbsp, while also exhibiting risks.

For example, The New York Times reported that six Russian Kinzhal hypersonic missiles were properly intercepted over Kiev by Ukrainian-operated Patriot weapon air defense systems in May 2023.

That victory, noted by&nbsp, Peter Mitchell in a May 2023 Modern War Institute article, perhaps plant from&nbsp, the Kinzhal’s limits. For sustained high-speed flexibility, Mitchell claims that the Kinzhal uses a solid-fuel jet engine, but the Kinzhal uses scramjet or different sophisticated propulsion systems.

Mitchell claims that the design raises questions about its ability to maintain fast speeds throughout its journey, especially during the terminal phase, making it prone to intercept.

He mentions that professional analysis suggests Kinzhal lacks the flexibility and agility needed for hypersonic weapons, referring to it as a “giant garden arrow” with explosives rather than a powerful weapon.

However, Moscow Times, an independent Russian media outlet, reported this month that Russia had targeted and struck two US-made Patriot missile launchers, a control station and a radar integral to the system with an Iskander ballistic missile in the central Dnipropetrovsk region, specifically in Pavlohrad, Ukraine.

In an article this month for Russian state media outlet TASS, Viktor Bodrov discusses how improvements in Russia’s reconnaissance-strike complex in identifying and dismantling these air defense systems, as well as Ukraine’s propensity to place them close to the front line to conceal its troops, may have led to their destruction.

The Patriot PAC-3 MSE may not be adequate defense against a lot of missiles in a saturation attack, despite having hit-to-kill capability to precisely destroy incoming missiles. Further, the Patriot PAC-3’s high cost of US$ 3.7 million per interceptor and extended production period of nearly 20 months may hinder its ability to perform in this scenario.

Jonathan Panter mentions in a Council on Foreign Relations ( CFR ) article this month that despite Israel’s support of close military allies like the US and its neutralization of Iran’s direct missile attacks in April and October 2024, the increasing sophistication and frequency of attacks may put strain on these defenses.

He makes the point that the US faces potential security conflicts because it continues to support Israel, which could have an impact on its strategic goals in other countries.

According to the Associated Press ( AP ), the US Army’s air defense forces are under strain from US Patriot missile donations to Ukraine and the recent decision to send a THAAD missile battery to Israel, which has caused delays in updating its missile systems.

These actions, according to AP, add to the strain of troop deployments because the US Army tries to ensure that troops in the continental US have enough time to rest and train. Recurrent deployments, according to the report, also make it challenging to transport these systems into depots where they can be upgraded.

In the Indo-Pacific region, where China has more missiles and technological advancements than either Russia or Iran, those issues may become even more pressing.

China operates the DF-21D” carrier killer” medium-range, road-mobile anti-ship ballistic missile, designed to target ships at sea with a range of 1, 450 to 1, 550 kilometers and an accuracy of 20 meters Circular Error Probable ( CEP ).

Due to its maneuverable warhead and precision, it is a significant threat to naval assets, particularly aircraft carriers, underscoring China’s advancing anti-access/area denial ( A2/AD ) capabilities.

Apart from the DF-21D, China also has the DF-26″ Guam killer” intermediate-range ballistic missile ( IRBM ) with a range of 4, 000 kilometers. The missile has a range of conventional and nuclear warheads, and its modular design makes it simple to swap out components quickly. As with the DF-21D, the DF-26B variant has anti-ship capability.

In conjunction with missile attacks, China may choose to use weaknesses in the&nbsp, US kill chains, and launch attacks from multiple domains such as space, cyber, and the electromagnetic spectrum in conjunction with missile attacks to defeat US missile defenses, according to Asia Times ‘ report from September 2024.

Integrating various missile defense systems, such as Patriot and THAAD, might be challenging. In August 2023, Asia Times pointed out that disjointed systems might not effectively counter an enemy in a saturation attack&nbsp, using various advanced weapons, such as drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons.

Given the limitations of US missile defense systems, the US and its allies may need to adopt a different deterrence strategy, focusing on  the ability to respond to an adversary.

In line with that, Melanie Sisson asserts in a May 2022 Brookings article that the US should adopt a deterrence by punishment approach to stop China from using force against Taiwan.

Sisson points out that deterrence by denial, which aims to convince China it would lose a military conflict, is deemed costly and risky, potentially leading to immediate war with a nuclear-armed adversary.

In contrast, she says deterrence by punishment seeks to make China’s costs of aggression prohibitively high, leveraging economic sanctions, diplomatic measures and military support for Taiwan. According to her, the latter approach is more pragmatic, flexible and less likely to escalate into full-scale war.

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Trump or Harris, US-India relations can’t afford to drift – Asia Times

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This article originally appeared on Pacific Forum, and it has since been republished with authority. Read the original below.

In one of the most contentious White House elections in recent memory, the US is only a few days away from electing its 47th leader. Countries around the world closely monitor the results every four centuries as the American public casts their ballots to choose the people who best serve their interests.

The impact of this vote on foreign policy cannot be ignored, even though the primary focus of the American presidential election is on social and economic issues that immediately affect the lives of the Americans. Given America’s social, economic, and surveillance traces across the world, foreign policy matters significantly in the US vote.

An extraordinary time shattered the election campaign, opening the earth to a new electoral competition between former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, even as the rest of the world considered the benefits and drawbacks of a Trump movie or a second word for President Joe Biden. A Trump 2.0 is the cause of a lot of stress and tension around the world, despite the uncertainty surrounding a Harris administration.

Regardless of who wins in November, there is a sense of comparative calm and trust in Delhi that the bilateral relationship between India and the US has bipartisan help.

The Delhi-Washington collaboration could be characterized as a political Goldilocks with an untapped proper alignment to counter China’s extensive and assertive rise, reshaping the Indo-Pacific’s security and economic landscape. From business to engineering, and Taiwan to Tibet, China is on incident style with India, the US, and their like-minded lovers.

The US and India have a favorable environment thanks to the corporate principles, which cover both military and non-military matters.

A quick glance at the joint statements from bilateral leadership meetings or the fact sheets from multilateral summits like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (” Quad” ) reveal engagements across the spectrum, from defense to infrastructure, from new technologies to public health, and from space to maritime security.

No day for proper fall

It is obvious that Washington and Delhi prioritized this marriage highly. The difficulty will be in navigating the tensions between delivering agreements and turning convergences into assistance.

Who will win the election in Washington will have the task of moving this marriage ahead while addressing sporadic annoyances and preventing operational risks.

Beyond its conventional group of allies, Washington maintains and envisions a relationship with Delhi. But, Delhi and Washington’s political imperatives will place them on proper axes that might challenge alignment and stifle traction.

The second-order result of individual foreign policy decisions needs to be handled keeping in mind the larger image of a “free, available, equitable and rules-based” get in the Indo-Pacific.

For example, the Delhi-Washington tango’s growing US-Russian animosity and the growing Sino-Russian ally create a more sophisticated complex powerful of commission and omission.

Besides, the US-China opposition is global in scope, while the India-China contest is a local one, more concentrated in western South Asia and the sea Indian Ocean area.

Both Washington and Delhi agree that collaborating and utilizing one another’s capabilities and intentions to address the China problem is beneficial. However, both also employ their own playbooks of “de-risking without decoupling” from China.

Therefore, whether India is a good bet for Washington vis-à-vis China and vice-versa will remain a pivot point in India-US engagement.

Delivering the deliverables

The most significant impact of cooperation in this area is probably the defense sector cooperation.

Both sides demonstrate a willingness to go above and beyond to improve ties between the two, which include co-development and co-production. Given the private sector’s growing involvement in India’s defense modernization, there are significant links between the two nations ‘ defense industrial conclaves.

Initiatives like the India-US Defense Industrial Roadmap and India-US Defense Acceleration Ecosystem ( INDUS-X ) are significant milestones in this effort because the budding synergy needs to lead to timely deliveries for induction into India’s armed forces.

Two new agreements have been signed, one relating to ensuring resilience of supply chains to meeting national security demands, namely&nbsp, Security of Supply Arrangement&nbsp, ( SOSA ) and a memorandum of agreement regarding&nbsp, Assignment of Liaison Officers&nbsp, to increase interoperability between the two militaries.

Moreover, overarching agreements like the&nbsp, Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology&nbsp, (iCET ) show a multi-sectoral and multi-agency partnership cutting across commercial and military technologies that are going to shape the security and economics of the 21st century.

Trade and technology will be increasingly intertwined in times to come and a new&nbsp, memorandum of understanding&nbsp, aims to strengthen supply chains for lithium, cobalt, and other critical minerals to be used in green energy transition efforts such as electric vehicles. A Harris and Trump presidency may have a more significant impact on the trade front.

Delhi would have to prepare for trade agreements with strong climate and environment components if Harris wins. On the other hand, a Trump 2.0 will most likely be more hostile toward multilateralism and focused on reciprocity of trade and tariffs, regardless of allies and adversaries. Trump, during his presidency, and more recently, as well, has often called out India as a “very big abuser” of tariffs.

Global aspirations and regional challenges

Regional challenges closer to home in its neighborhood throw up more looming challenges as India attempts to take over the global south and finds itself at the center of many pressing global issues.

The volatile political climate in Myanmar, the chaotic regime change in Bangladesh, the foreign policy choices of neighboring Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives, as well as the uncertain transition in Afghanistan, will necessitate sober discussions between Washington and Delhi.

Although the geopolitics and geoeconomics of South Asia are generally understood as being related to the India-China conflict, the US’s role is significant because it is a distant power in terms of geography but not in terms of strategy.

How the region fits into the India-US partnership will be a crucial issue for the next American presidency as Washington navigates South Asia following 20 years of shaping its regional policy through the Afghanistan lens.

More specifically, it will be important to discuss how Washington and Delhi collaborate on financing and building infrastructure in the region, and how both sides would coordinate efforts to improve maritime security in the Indian Ocean region.

The India-US relationship, currently called a defining partnership of the 21st&nbsp, century, has seen all kinds of highs and lows in its journey. It would have been difficult to imagine the level of cooperation the two countries had had in all sectors and domains two decades ago.

However, the relationship between these two complex democracies, each with its own unique worldviews and priorities, will also experience a number of ups and downs in the years to come.

Moreover, the world is going through seismic geopolitical, geo-economic, and technological transitions. The key to putting together a partnership that is aspirational yet grounded in realpolitik will be to use the political support on both sides and the institutional links built over the years.

Monish Tourangbam&nbsp, ( [email protected] ) &nbsp, is director at the Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies (KIIPS), India.

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Israel-Iran on a nine-stage path to war of annihilation – Asia Times

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Middle Eastern conflicts are higher. A vicious assault by Hamas against Israel on October 7, 2023, which sparked a downward spiral of crime in the area. That has culminated, a year later, in Israel mounting a earth war of Lebanon.

The war, which Israel says aims to fight and kill Hezbollah, follows 12 weeks of tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran, which have slowly escalated in power.

There is growing concern that this fight may turn out to be a major turning point in international relations given that Iran is strongly associated and supported by Hezbollah. The concern is that this conflict could set off the next world issue.

The idea of conflict escalation is useful to understand how dangerous the situation might be.

Friedrich Glasl, an Austrian economist, published his nine-stage model of conflict escalation in 1997, which is widely regarded as the most sophisticated investigation into how conflicts can turn from disputes to totalitarian conflict ( he gives the rather unsettling moniker” Together into the abyss” ).

Flow-chart graphic showing Friedrich Glasl's nine-stage model of conflict escalation
Nine phases of discord increase. Graphic by Swinnall, classic from Sampi. Derived from: Konflikteskalation zu Glasl. graphic, CC BY-NC

Positions on either side of the argument become more difficult and frustrated as a result of a conflict being readily or quickly resolved. When conflict events attempt to gain a competitive edge in the court of international mind, their next phase naturally occurs.

The enemies begin to take actions at level three of the design. While any feeling that discussion may ease the conflict has vanished in mutual animosity and mistrust, neither side wants to give advantage to the other.

Accordingly, at step four, the fight events resort to an “us v them” language in an attempt to create coalitions and get support. When one or more of the adversaries feels they have become tarnished in the eye of the entire group, is described as “loss of face.”

Reputation is no longer as important as achieving their goals. Often, one side or the other performs an action that it feels has isolated it, which merely serves to dry it place.

In step six, challenges or threats are issued. As the conflict parties seek legitimacy by imposing a time limit on a risk, which in turn will increase the pressure on both sides, you escalate.

Another of the conflicting parties may be forced to choose a course of action from which much option exists. The adversaries begin to exchange the first few punches in response to the challenges they have made in level seven.

In step eight, the unpleasant blows enhance, with the emphasis on trying to injure – or even eliminate – the enemy’s capacity for response or call into question the legitimacy of the other side’s leader. Sometimes this can cause one party to split up into conflicting factions, making the situation extremely excessive.

As the conflict reaches its ninth level, one or more of the parties are then falling” together into the abyss,” which is a threat to one or more of the events. All sense of prudence is lost on purpose because the only objective is the complete destruction of the attack, creating a state of total battle.

What period are we currently at?

The fight between Israel and Iran has now reached the point where both sides have exchanged sporadic knocks against one another after decades of hostility and denial on both sides. Iran is suspected of being behind the Hamas assault on October 7 according to reports. Tehran has just denied being involved in the massacre.

Hezbollah, which is more tightly linked to the Islamic Republic, has carried out a year-long storm of missiles from Lebanon into northern Israel. In reply, Israel has now instantly struck against Iran’s surrogate, invading southern Lebanon to join and attempt to destroy Hezbollah.

Both parties are blatantly interested in demonstrating their control and power in the area. However, the stakes may rise if Iran feels a pressing need to safeguard its proxies. The rulers of Israel have long argued that its very life is in jeopardy.

In terms of Glasl’s levels of increase, the two nations appear to have reached level seven, where they are launching limited knocks against each other while avoiding direct fight. Both want to ask their interlocutor whether the potential benefits of continuing are worth the cost.

Iran’s airstrikes against Israel suggest that while Iran can see that its regional standing is being threatened and is still attempting to assist the non-state stars in Gaza and Lebanon, the way in which they have carried out their problems suggests that Tehran does not feeling strong enough to gain even more territory than it already does.

The only immediate punches the two powers have delivered to one another have been from the air. Iran has now launched two ( large ) barrages of rockets against Israel, one in April this year and again at the end of September. Jewish casualties have not been the result of either bombardment, which was planned in advance.

Israel launched a targeted attack on an Egyptian airport close to one of Israel’s nuclear deployments in April. Netanyahu has stated that Israel would target Iran’s military installations “based on Israel’s national security needs,” despite the fact that it has n’t yet responded directly to the most recent Iranian barrage.

Experts think that both sides are using these sporadic strikes to indicate their unwillingness to rise, at least so far. However, there is a lot at stake. Iran may experience Israel’s floor plan in Lebanon threaten its status as a regional power.

Meanwhile, Israel has frequently declared that it is fighting for the safety of its citizens. Both parties appear to be opposed to a wider fight, and their allies had undoubtedly not support them.

So it’s obvious that neither Israel nor Iran want to travel further along the same path as Glasl’s nine-stage design, at least for the time being.

Matthew Powell is teaching brother in proper and heat energy research, University of Portsmouth

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Vietnam chemical warfare’s secret toxic legacies: Agent Blue – Asia Times

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The history of Agent Orange and its damaging effects has dominated US information for more than 50 years about molecular war during the National Vietnam War.

During the Vietnam War period, however, another wicked mix called Agent Blue was also used heavily in Vietnam. The general public was unaware of the use of this arsenic-based pesticides, which was used to eliminate rice.

In fact, Arthur H. Westing wrote the second article about this chemical weapon in a plain letter to the editor in 1971 that was published in the New York Times with the headline” ‘ Agent Blue’ in Vietnam.”

This speck of interest to tactical pesticides Agent Blue was n’t followed up until 44 years later, when Loana Hoylman published an article,” Today’s Blue Arsenic in the Environment”, in a 2014 problem of Veteran journal, published by Vietnam Veterans of America.

Lastly, in 2020 Kenneth R. Olson ( one of the authors of the article you are reading now ) and Larry Cihacek published the first professional blog article on the topic,” The Fate of Agent Blue, the Arsenic Based Herbicide, Used in South Vietnam during the Vietnam War”, in the Open Journal of Soil Science.

Using new primary source data, the 2020 article reconstructed the paper trail of those” Made in America” chemical weapons, and developed an updated chemical research framework.

International media advertising started paying attention. Mike Tharp, a part of the Merry Band of Retirees, our group of military soldiers working on this topic, wrote reports that Asia Times published. Mike passed away last year, perhaps as a result of his exposure to pollutants TCDD and/or pollutants while stationed at Bien Hoa Air Force base in Vietnam during the Vietnam War.

How come US news organizations have discovered this covert use of Agent Blue to destroy civilian food ( rice ) sources and agricultural production sites for 50 years? It’s an essential issue. This sketch out the current effects of this secret chemical battle.

Before the United States ‘ Vietnam War officially began in 1965, the Republic of Vietnam war spray Agent Blue onto the ground.

Veterans of the Vietnam War, researchers, and scientists have gathered data on how Agent Blue was sprayed onto rice paddocks and mangrove trees in the Mekong Delta and Central Highlands. by the Car war with the assistance of the US Army, US Navy, and CIA.

The Institute of Medicine estimated that 3.2 million liters ( containing 468, 000 kilograms of arsenic ) were sprayed during the Republic of Vietnam’s Khai Quang ( food denial ) program.

This was in contrast to US Air Force’s Operation Ranch Hand spray, which was mostly from C-123 plane. The Operation Ranch Hand missions maintained records of the locations and quantities of herbicides sprayed ( over 4, 712, 000 liters containing 664, 392 kilograms of arsenic ) from 1961-1971.

The Institute of Medicine estimated that, in total, 7.8 million liters ( 1, 132, 400 kilograms of arsenic ) of Agent Blue were applied to southern Vietnam landscape from 1962 to 1971. This entire includes both the US Air Force Operation Ranch Hand from 1962 to 1965 and the Car Khai Quang system, which was carried out by the Car war with the support of the CIA, US Army, and US Navy.

This is a mind-boggling quantity of highly toxic substances to be sprayed over the Mekong Delta’s corn fields, which were a perfect grain growing area in Vietnam, for a century. What has happened to all of this chemical battle broker over the past 60 years, then?

The southeastern Vietnam setting and the Asian who live in the Mekong Delta have bio-accumulated pollutants from both natural and anthropogenic sources, which have increased their risk of serious poison over time. Arsenic is ocean liquid, has no half-life, and is dangerous. Put another way, &nbsp, its poison keeps on poisoning long.

We’ll be publishing a follow-up research paper,” The Secret Toxic Legacies of Chemical Warfare: Agent Blue Use during the 2nd&nbsp, Indochina War and the Vietnam War ( 1961-1971 )”, in the November issue of the Open Journal of Soil Science, an open-access publication from Scientific Research Publishing (SCIRP ).

The writer’s production and evaluation of magazines and records will examine the impact of the United States military and the South Vietnamese government on arsenic levels and describe the presence of arsenic in the groundwater of the Vietnam Mekong Delta.

As both Asian grain farmers and US military officers who were exposed to Agent Blue you speak, poisoning the local food and water is not a wise idea.

Ken Olson (krolson@illinois .edu ) is a professor emeritus of soil science in the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois, Urbana. Bryan R. Higgins is a recognized company professor emeritus of landscape and arranging at the State University of&nbsp, New York, Plattsburgh.

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Australia donates 49 Abrams tanks to Ukraine – Asia Times

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49 M1A1 Abrams tanks are being given to Ukraine by Australia’s Albanese authorities despite it’s alleged playdown of the payment earlier this year.

The latest Australian package is worth A$ 245 million ( US$ 163 million ). It brings the total American military aid to Ukraine since the full-scale Russian war in 2022 to A$ 1.3 billion, and general American aid to A$ 1.5 billion.

Defense Minister Richard Marles responded to a question about a potential product of the tank in February by saying it was” not on the agenda.”

According to state sources, the donation of the tanks required US authorization because Australia had purchased them from Washington, but there had to have been a procedure.

Pat Conroy, the minister for security sector and capacity delivery, made the announcement in London while he was traveling to Brussels to meet with the NATO defense ministers. In Brussels, Conroy may meet with the Ukraine defence minister.

Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea form the” Indo-Pacific Four” cluster of non-NATO countries attending the meeting.

A small number of the 49 vehicles will need to be repaired before they are delivered because they are nearing the end of their lives. Additionally, they could be used as extra pieces if Ukraine wants them delivered more rapidly. Ukraine may choose which course of action to take.

To facilitate the transition to the M1A2 tank ship, the American military is keeping a small number of the M1A1 Abrams tanks.

Conroy said:” We stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Ukraine in their battle against Russia’s illegal war. The Russian armed forces will benefit from these tanks, which may add firepower and mobility, in addition to the support our partners offer for Ukraine.

Michelle Grattan, is a faculty brother at the University of Canberra.

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Diplomats’ expulsions a serious blow to Canada-India ties – Asia Times

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Canada-India relations have suffered a big setback after American law enforcement authorities accused American agents of participation in “homicides, blackmail, and harsh acts” on American soil.

In reply, Canada expelled six American officials, including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma.

In a tit-for-tat walk, India expelled six American officials, rejecting Canada’s claims as “preposterous” and politically motivated, especially given the Sikh diaspora’s political value as a vital voting bloc for Justin Trudeau’s Democratic government.

India has consistently refuted the allegations and refused to cooperate with the French investigation, which eventually forced the federal government to produce these allegations community.

Trudeau acknowledged the value of maintaining close ties with India, but criticized India’s deeds that targeted pro-Khalistan officials as “unacceptable.”

However, the relationship between the two nations is likely to continue to be strained without a shared understanding of the pro-Khalistan problem. Both countries continue to approach the situation from necessarily unique viewpoints.

Nijjar’s death consequences

Since Trudeau’s bomb speech in September 2023, when he claimed India was involved in the death of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a pro-Khalistan head based in Canada, has strained relations between Canada and India.

The Khalistan action is an independent Sikh position in northern India.

A top American envoy was fired as a result of the murder, and bilateral relations were rapidly deteriorating as a result, with India suspending visa services and expelled Canadian diplomats. In response, India later pressed for the return of 41 American diplomats, citing the rule of political parity.

India has long alleged that Canada’s support for the Khalistan activity poses a serious hazard to its territorial integrity and national security.

The Sikh community in Canada, the largest in the world, includes components that have supported the pro-Khalistan reason, fueling India’s problems. Canada, but, emphasizes the right to freedom of expression, including quiet protests, as a main principle of its political principles.

In a related occurrence, the US revealed in November 2023 that it had foiled an admitted American plot to kill a Sikh separatist president in New York. This growth, coupled with Trudeau’s speech in 2023 that there was” reliable information” linking India to Nijjar’s killing, has further substantiated worries over India’s alleged covert activities targeting pro-Khalistan protesters.

India’s corporate calculations

India’s proper value, especially in counterbalancing China’s growing confidence in the Indo-Pacific area, adds difficulty to its political relations.

Given the power imbalance with China, India believes its partnership with the United States is crucial to protecting its objectives. The US, in turn, sees India as a cornerstone of its Indo-Pacific strategy, with initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue ( Quad ). It includes the US, India, Japan and Australia and is designed to encourage the place as an “arc of democracy“.

Growing security and economic partnerships have resulted from US bipartisan support for bolstering US ties with India, with a growing focus on technology transfer as a key component of this partnership.

During Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to Washington, DC, in June 2023, President Joe Biden’s administration finalized an agreement for the joint production of General Electric ( GE ) F-414 jet engines.

At present, just four countries — the US, UK, Russia and France — have the capability to produce aircraft vehicles, with China also lacking this innovative technology. The GE F-414 collaboration aims to strengthen US-Indian cooperation in the field of protection and enhance their collective ability to combat China’s advancements in protection technologies.

India likewise plays a key role in Canada’s Indo-Pacific plan, unveiled in 2022. In the standard document outlining the plan, Ottawa described China as a “disruptive energy” and emphasized the need to improve relations with Indo-Pacific countries, especially India.

The strategy highlights” India’s growing strategic, economic, and demographic importance” as key to achieving Canada’s geo-strategic objectives. Canada and India are engaged in negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement as part of this strategy. But due to the diplomatic tensions sparked by Canada’s allegations, these negotiations have been suspended.

The West’s disapproval

The Modi government may have figured out how to protect itself from criticism for its handling of pro-Khalistani activists abroad given its strategic value to the West. However, the unequivocal response from both the US and Canada suggests otherwise, with the West making it clear that such actions are unacceptable, regardless of India’s strategic significance.

India will likely continue to deny Canada’s accusations and sever diplomatic ties with the country in a contentious dispute that will affect every aspect of the bilateral relationship.

From Canada’s perspective, Indian actions on Canadian soil represent a blatant violation of sovereignty. Ottawa anticipates India’s cooperation and assurances that such transnational repression wo n’t take place in the future. From India’s point of view, it’s a matter of national security as Canada appeases pro-Khalistan elements.

While the Modi government has generally had success fostering relations with western nations, the Sikh diaspora in Canada has been a significant drag in boosting relations.

The two countries ‘ relationship is likely to continue to be strained despite wider strategic considerations that would otherwise lead to closer ties if there was no common denominator to reconcile these two divergent viewpoints.

Thompson Rivers University’s assistant professor of political science is Saira Bano.

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