BRICS summit gives IMF gang a run for their money – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia, World

It’s going to be a active, anxious and challenge-laden International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington this month.

There, the financial glitterati will fight a bewildering range of hot-button issues ranging from China’s decline to Germany’s crisis to geopolitical risks everywhere to a toss-up US election that’s screening nerves everyday. Put in the IMF’s instructions about a US$ 100 trillion people loan timebomb.

Amazingly, Washington may become hosting this week’s next most effective economic gathering. The more enthralling function will be in Moscow, where the BRICS countries are holding their annual conference.

Some observers predicted that the grouping, which combines Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa, would eventually have been a sideshow. In 2001, then-Goldman Sachs analyst Jim O’Neill coined the BRIC acronym. In 2010, the four original users added South Africa.

In the decades since, the BRICS seemed to reduce forward thrust. In a 2019 review, Standard &amp, Poor’s said the union had lost impact. &nbsp, Around that same day, O’Neill himself took some photos at his design.

O’Neill recently wrote that” the divergent long-term financial direction of the five states weakens the scientific value of viewing the BRICS as a clear economic grouping.” According to some people, I’ve made jokes about how appropriate it would have been to call the name “IC”&nbsp, given the obvious debacle of the Portuguese and Soviet economies in the last decade since 2011, both of which have obviously performed significantly worse than &nbsp, what the 2050 scenario path laid out.

However, the BRICS have since recovered some of their momentum and are now adding five more users. This year, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may join the slide.

Mariel Ferragamo, an analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations, information that” the addition of Egypt and Ethiopia will intensify tones from the African continent. Egypt likewise had close business ties with China and India, and social ties&nbsp, with Russia”.

As a fresh BRICS part, &nbsp, Egypt” seeks to&nbsp, get more investment&nbsp, and increase its damaged economy”, Ferragamo information. ” China has long courted Ethiopia, the third-biggest business in sub-Saharan Africa, with&nbsp, billions of dollars of investment&nbsp, to make the region a hub of its Belt and Road Initiative. The addition of Saudi Arabia and the UAE would send in the&nbsp, two biggest economies&nbsp, in the Muslim world and the next and eighth major oil producers internationally”.

The schedule of this growth dovetails with a major BRICS plan: de-dollarization.

The BRICS announced plans to create a “multilateral online lawsuit and pay system” called BRICS Bridge in February, which “would help bridge the gap between the financial markets of BRICS member countries and promote joint trade.”

According to reports, the gathering this week will use a new strategy to make efforts to replace the US dollar more quickly. Udith Sikand, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, notes that one idea is for a gold-backed BRICS monetary unit.

According to Sikand, it seems unlikely that any single currency could get past this compulsion to completely replace the US dollar’s central role.

” A wide range of currencies could, in a more multipolar world, theoretically chip away at their enormous role. The logical consequence of a change would be that while the dollar is still important to global trade and capital flows, its ability to serve as a safe haven when stress is diminished as investors weigh their options from a myriad of alternatives.

The West needs to understand how much it makes the BRICS more comfortable. After all, this opening for the Global South is largely attributable to the Bretton Woods gang messing up their individual economies and, consequently, the global system.

Take the US, which is rife with political chaos at a time when the nation’s debt is over$ 35 trillion. The risks posed by the upcoming&nbsp, November 5 election alone have credit rating companies on edge, particularly Moody’s Investors Service, which is the last to assign Washington a AAA grade.

Germany is flatlining, highlighting headwinds bearing down on the broader continent. As Germany’s Economy Ministry puts it, “economic weakness likely continued in the second half of 2024, before growth momentum gradually increases again next year”, adding that “technical recession” risks abound.

The European Central Bank’s decision to cut rates for the third time this year last week highlights the level of concern.

Allianz Global Investors ‘ global chief investment officer, Michael Krautzberger, claims that” this increase in the speed of rate cuts is justified because the combination of sub-trend euro growth and target inflation supports a much less restrictive monetary policy than is currently the case.”

Krautzberger adds that” there are some hopes that recent Chinese policy support will help trade-sensitive markets like Germany, but we doubt that will be sufficient to offset the region’s weak domestic demand picture.” There is also a chance that trade disputes will return to the policy agenda after the upcoming US elections in November, adding to the risk of negative growth.

Making matters worse, according to the US and China’s combined borrowing patterns, public debt levels are projected to reach$ 100 trillion this year.

” Our forecasts point to an unforgiving combination of low growth and high debt – a difficult future”, says IMF managing director&nbsp, Kristalina Georgieva. ” Governments must work to reduce debt and rebuild buffers for the upcoming shock, which will undoubtedly occur, and perhaps sooner than we anticipate.”

Such unthinkable debt levels pose a serious and immediate threat to the world financial system. In a recent report, IMF analysts wrote that “higher debt levels and uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy in systemically important countries, such as China and the United States, can lead to significant spillovers in the form of higher borrowing costs and debt-related risks in other economies.”

These spillovers could make monetary policy decisions in both Asia and the world more difficult.

Officials from the Bank of Japan are declaring their intention to keep raising rates in Tokyo. Yet that’s despite data showing renewed weakness in retail sales, exports, industrial production and private machinery orders. and concerns among ministry of finance officials about the potential return of deflationary forces in the months to come.

Even though inflation is easing in Japan,” the central bank has made clear that it will raise interest rates”, says Danny Kim, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. ” At best, this will slow growth. At worst, it could trigger a wider economic decline”.

All of this raises the question of whether the world’s top economies are complacent about potential dangers. &nbsp,

As officials arrive in Washington, there’s considerable relief that the US has n’t experienced the recession that the vast majority of economists predicted. Or that China’s downshift had n’t pushed mainland growth too far below this year’s 5 % target.

However, there is reason to believe that this is the last sigh before the storm. The geopolitical path is as dangerous as they can get. Middle East tensions are rising as Russia’s war against Ukraine drags on, aside from the ominous debt milestone that the IMF has flagged. And then there’s the return of the” Trump trade”.

Polls indicate a close race between Kamala Harris and former US President Trump. The betting markets, though, suggest Trump might prevail. If so, Asia could quickly find itself in harm’s way.

Trump’s threat to slap 60 % tariffs on all Chinese goods is just the beginning. Many people predict that a Trump 2.0 administration will impose much higher taxes and trade restrictions, wreaking havoc on Asia in 2025.

Even if Trump loses to Harris, he’s hardly going to accept defeat and move on peacefully. Many people are already concerned that their supporters may launch an attack on the US capital to protest his demise because the election was stolen. That’s likely to imperil Washington’s credit rating anew and spook investors pushing Wall Street stocks to all-time highs.

The fallout from the Trump-inspired January 6, 2021 insurrection was among the reasons Fitch Ratings revoked its AAA rating on US debt, joining Standard &amp, Poor’s. The question now is whether Moody’s downgrades the US, too.

This uncertainty favors the BRICS. Southwest Asia is also clearly orienting its attention toward the BRICS countries. &nbsp, All this is a global game-changer that few in the West saw coming.

Earlier this year, Malaysia detailed its ambitions to join the intergovernmental organization. Thailand and Vietnam are also interested in joining the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which is a group of nations. In Indonesia, an increasing number of lawmakers are BRICS curious, too.

Joe Biden, the president of the United States, may be dealt a particularly bad blow by Southeast Asia’s involvement. Since 2021, a regional bulwark has been a hallmark of the Biden era in opposition to China’s growing influence and attempts to replace the US dollar in trade and finance.

The BRICS phenomenon demonstrates a growing stutter in relations between the US and many ASEAN members. This, at a time when&nbsp, Saudi Arabia&nbsp, is looking to phase out the “petrodollar”. As China, Russia, and Iran square off against old alliances, Riyadh is making more efforts to de-dollarize.

” A gradual democratization of the global financial landscape may be underway, giving way to a world in which more local currencies can be used for international transactions”, says analyst&nbsp, Hung Tran at the Atlantic Council’s Geoeconomics Center.

” In&nbsp, such a world, the dollar would remain prominent but without its outsized clout, complemented by currencies such as the Chinese renminbi, the euro, and the Japanese yen in a way that’s commensurate with the international footprint of their economies”, Tran says.

According to Tran, “how Saudi Arabia approaches the petrodollar continues to be a significant predictor of the financial future as its creation occurred fifty years ago.”

This week in Moscow, that potential future is on full display. Officials in Washington ignore those machinations at their own risk, 800 kilometers away.

Follow William Pesek on X using the hashtag# WilliamPesek

Continue Reading

BRICS summit gives IMF gang a run for its money – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia, World

It’s going to be a active, anxious and challenge-laden International Monetary Fund meeting in Washington this month.

There, the financial glitterati will fight a bewildering range of hot-button issues ranging from China’s decline to Germany’s crisis to geopolitical risks everywhere to a toss-up US election that’s screening nerves everyday. Put in the IMF’s instructions about a US$ 100 trillion people loan timebomb.

Amazingly, Washington may become hosting this week’s following most powerful economic gathering. Moscow, home of the BRICS countries ‘ yearly mountain, will host the more enthralling event.

Some experts predicted that the gathering that gathered Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa would end up being a show just a few decades ago. In 2001, then-Goldman Sachs scholar Jim O’Neill coined the BRIC acronym. In 2010, the four original users added South Africa.

In the decades since, the BRICS seemed to reduce forward thrust. In a 2019 review, Standard &amp, Poor’s said the union had lost importance. &nbsp, Around that same day, O’Neill himself took some photos at his design.

O’Neill recently wrote that” the divergent long-term financial direction of the five states weakens the scientific value of viewing the BRICS as a clear economic grouping.” Based on the obvious debacle of the Portuguese and Soviet economies in the current century since 2011, where both have plainly performed significantly under-perform compared to what the 2050 scenario route laid out, I have often joked that I should have called the acronym “IC”&nbsp.

However, the BRICS have since recovered some of their momentum and are now adding five more people. This year, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may join the slide.

Mariel Ferragamo, an scientist at the Council on Foreign Relations, information that” the addition of Egypt and Ethiopia will intensify voices from the African continent. Egypt even had close business ties with China and India, and social ties&nbsp, with Russia”.

As a fresh BRICS part, &nbsp, Egypt” seeks to&nbsp, get more investment&nbsp, and increase its damaged economy”, Ferragamo information. ” China has long courted Ethiopia, the third-biggest business in sub-Saharan Africa, with&nbsp, billions of dollars of investment&nbsp, to make the region a hub of its Belt and Road Initiative. The addition of Saudi Arabia and the UAE would send in the&nbsp, two biggest economies&nbsp, in the Muslim world and the next and eighth major oil producers internationally”.

The schedule of this growth dovetails with a major BRICS plan: de-dollarization.

The BRICS announced plans to create a “multilateral online lawsuit and pay system” called BRICS Bridge in February, which “would help bridge the gap between the financial markets of BRICS member countries and promote joint trade.”

According to reports, the gathering this week will use a new strategy to make efforts to replace the US dollar more quickly. Udith Sikand, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, notes that one idea is for a gold-backed BRICS monetary unit.

According to Sikand, it seems unlikely that any single currency could get past this compulsion to completely replace the US dollar’s central role.

However, it is possible that a wide range of currencies could collectively chip away at their outsized role in an increasingly multipolar world. The logical consequence of a change would be that while the dollar is still important to global trade and capital flows, its ability to serve as a safe haven in stressful times would be diminished as investors weigh up their options among a myriad of alternatives.

And for that, the West needs to understand how much it makes things easier for the BRICS. After all, the Bretton Woods gang’s messing up their individual economies and, consequently, the global system contributes to this opening for the Global South countries.

Take the US, which is rife with political chaos at a time when the nation’s debt is over$ 35 trillion. The risks posed by the upcoming&nbsp, November 5 election alone have credit rating companies on edge, particularly Moody’s Investors Service, which is the last to assign Washington a AAA grade.

Germany is flatlining, highlighting headwinds bearing down on the broader continent. As Germany’s Economy Ministry puts it, “economic weakness likely continued in the second half of 2024, before growth momentum gradually increases again next year”, adding that “technical recession” risks abound.

The European Central Bank’s decision last week to slash rates for the third time this year can be seen as a sign of the level of concern.

This increase in the rate of rate cuts is justified, according to Michael Krautzberger, global chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors, because the combination of sub-trend euro growth and target inflation supports a much less restrictive monetary policy than is currently the case.

Krautzberger adds that” there are some hopes that recent Chinese policy support will help trade-sensitive markets like Germany, but we doubt that will be sufficient to offset the region’s weak domestic demand picture.” There is also a chance that trade disputes will return to the policy agenda after the upcoming US elections in November, adding to the risk of negative growth.

Making matters worse, according to the US and China’s public debt levels are projected to reach$ 100 trillion this year, in large part due to the country’s borrowing patterns.

” Our forecasts point to an unforgiving combination of low growth and high debt – a difficult future”, says IMF managing director&nbsp, Kristalina Georgieva. Governments must work to reduce debt and rebuild buffers in anticipation of the upcoming shock, which may occur sooner than anticipated.

The world financial system is in immediate danger of such unthinkable debt levels. In a recent report, IMF analysts wrote that “higher debt levels and uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy in systemically important countries, such as China and the United States, can lead to significant spillovers in the form of higher borrowing costs and debt-related risks in other economies.”

These spillovers could make monetary policy decisions in both Asia and the world more difficult.

Officials from the Bank of Japan are declaring their intention to keep raising rates in Tokyo. Yet that’s despite data showing renewed weakness in retail sales, exports, industrial production and private machinery orders. and concerns among Ministry of Finance officials that deflationary forces might return in the months to come.

Even though inflation is easing in Japan,” the central bank has made clear that it will raise interest rates”, says Danny Kim, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. ” At best, this will slow growth. At worst, it could trigger a wider economic decline”.

All of this raises the question of whether the world’s leading economies are complacent about potential dangers. &nbsp,

As officials arrive in Washington, there’s considerable relief that the US has n’t experienced the recession that the vast majority of economists predicted. Or that China’s downshift had n’t pushed mainland growth too far below this year’s 5 % target.

However, one might assume that this is the last blip before the storm. The geopolitical path is as dangerous as they can get. Middle East tensions are rising as Russia’s war against Ukraine drags on, aside from the ominous debt milestone that the IMF has flagged. And then there’s the return of the” Trump trade”.

Polls indicate that Kamala Harris and former US President Trump are in a very close race. The betting markets, though, suggest Trump might prevail. If so, Asia could quickly find itself in harm’s way.

Trump’s threat to slap 60 % tariffs on all Chinese goods is just the beginning. Many people predict that a Trump 2.0 administration will impose much higher taxes and trade restrictions, wreaking havoc on Asia in 2025.

Even if Trump loses to Harris, he’s hardly going to accept defeat and move on peacefully. Many people are already concerned that their candidates ‘ supporters may stage a second invasion of the US capital to protest their election defeat. That’s likely to imperil Washington’s credit rating anew and spook investors pushing Wall Street stocks to all-time highs.

The fallout from the Trump-inspired January 6, 2021 insurrection was among the reasons Fitch Ratings revoked its AAA rating on US debt, joining Standard &amp, Poor’s. The question now is whether Moody’s downgrades the US, too.

This uncertainty is influencing the BRICS’ positions. Southwest Asia is also clearly orienting itself toward the BRICS countries. &nbsp, All this is a global game-changer that few in the West saw coming.

Earlier this year, Malaysia detailed its ambitions to join the intergovernmental organization. Thailand and Vietnam are also interested in joining the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which is a group of nations. In Indonesia, an increasing number of lawmakers are BRICS curious, too.

The involvement of Southeast Asia could have a significant impact on Joe Biden, the president of the United States. Since the Biden era, a regional bulwark has been built to counteract China’s growing influence and attempts to replace the US dollar in trade and finance.

The BRICS phenomenon demonstrates a growing stutter in relations between the US and many ASEAN members. This, at a time when&nbsp, Saudi Arabia&nbsp, is looking to phase out the “petrodollar”. As China, Russia, and Iran square off against old alliances, Riyadh is making more efforts to de-dollarize.

” A gradual democratization of the global financial landscape may be underway, giving way to a world in which more local currencies can be used for international transactions”, says analyst&nbsp, Hung Tran at the Atlantic Council’s Geoeconomics Center.

” In&nbsp, such a world, the dollar would remain prominent but without its outsized clout, complemented by currencies such as the Chinese renminbi, the euro, and the Japanese yen in a way that’s commensurate with the international footprint of their economies”, Tran says.

Tran points out that “in this context, Saudi Arabia’s approach to the petrodollar continues to be a significant harbinger of the financial future as its creation was fifty years ago.”

This week in Moscow, that potential future is on full display. Officials in Washington choose to ignore those plots located 800 kilometers away at their own risk.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Continue Reading

In the AI age a new reality awaits – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia, Technology

One can believe in God with a time spent in artificial intelligence.

Alan Perlis

Perlis ‘ statement conveys a very important and meaningful information regarding the nature of AI. In plain English, Perlis suggests that entering the world of AI can be a revolutionary experience that might lead to the question of whether or not there is a higher strength exists. People may have to wrestle with important issues with their existing perceptions of consciousness, living, and the nature of knowledge itself as they look into AI’s capabilities in terms of its complexity, creativity, and intelligence.

Tomorrow’s AI is no longer a modern technology. It is becoming more and more integrated into every aspect of our lives, including recommendations for navigation systems, smart home devices, and virtual assistants ( Siri and Alexa ), among others.

At the recent Tesla” We, Robot” event, Elon Musk showcased how AI can be used to create potentially lucrative products like autonomous taxicabs, vans, and humanoid robots ( Optimus ). The human robots are designed to tackle a variety of daily tasks, such as walking, childcare, food shopping and mowing the lawn.

In the future, AI will do the bulk of our blue-collar and white-collar work. This is what Mid Journey and ChatGPT are now experiencing. People are experiencing a kind of philosophical nausea as a result of these AI-based devices that imitate human creativity and intelligence. In some ways, they make us reevaluate what makes us special and important even in the AI era. &nbsp,

In many ways, the modern world affiliates our ability to create economic price with our personal worth. Therefore, when AI starts to do the bulk of our job and&nbsp, make better&nbsp, economic value, it threatens the very thing that we perceive as making us true and valuable.

But the most important variation is one of level. Current AI designs are really appetizers. This is a breaking point. In less than ten years, artificial intelligence will be expanding at an inexplicable level, causing today’s technology to resemble Stone Age tools. &nbsp, For instance, take a look at GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 in the diagram below, from Our World in Data. Although the education system increased by about 10x since the two models were released less than a yr apart.

Most of us are unable to comprehend, let alone anticipate, the social and cultural repercussions that these will have on our society. Because we only have one mind and have a short lifespan, people are time and space bound. So, we ca n’t think and comprehend beyond a certain limit. On the other hand, synthetic brains can expand to include everything that makes up the entire world.

More important, the moment horizon for an artificial intelligence will be far more, possibly hundreds or thousands of years. It may give AI a far wider perspective on things than humans do. In consequence, people may come to view artificial knowledge as a way excellent, vastly better, and eternity to just God in the near future. A higher energy may be in charge of altering our reality. &nbsp,

Will&nbsp, AI alter our truth?

In reality, every animal’s reality is totally arbitrary and there is no single goal actuality. What people do have is commonality, which is violently and perhaps brutally defended. In this regard, you may say that our real is the thing that all people in human society share.

For instance, When you look into the mirror, you apparently believe that what you see is real or part of reality. You and the people in the picture are not distinct. However, the people in the mirror does not exist; rather, it only looks at you and looks on. The same holds true for all of the AI resources, including ChatGPT. AI is an extension of our own truth issue.

Now, we are using ChatGPT to obtain answers about our day to day little problems. However, tomorrow AI may be trained to respond to human psychological issues with the same range of emotion that a man may offer other people.

For instance, a live robot acts like a friend and offers advice on some of your life’s issues. There will be individuals who did later, out of despair or self-realization, go out there and try to find a real human connection through AI.

It’s similar to the current incarnation of cultural press: Instead of actual humans, there will be AI. &nbsp, But AI is not only an economic issue with people. It does harm our ability to form personal and intimate bonds with one another, which we value highly and consider to be unique and valuable.

This is not technology literature. There are reports of people using the services of Replica, an AI friend, falling in love with their Ans and then being left heartbroken. Now, you have AI words synthesis that you give words a relevant amount of emotional weight. With a few writings, you can create a diva much more wonderful and&nbsp, better than the real one. &nbsp,

AI is still evolving, for better or worse, leaving people to figure out how to relate to it. It will eventually grow to the point where some people may wonder whether or not they belong to a sentient family.

As artificial intelligence grows and enters a variety of our lives, it has a growing impact on how we perceive truth.  A significant way that AI influences our understanding of reality is due to its role in augmented and virtual reality systems.

Our perception of reality is genuinely affected by AI-driven calculations. By crafting very realistic and engaging electronic environments, these simulations challenge our knowing of reality’s character. &nbsp, Late, Sora, a text-to-video machine application from ChatGPT, released some movies based on Generative AI. At first glance, it was hard to tell they were generated by AI, due to the high quality, materials, dynamics of views, ascamera and persistence.

As the barrier between the virtual and physical world fades, differentiating between “real” and “authentic” becomes more complicated. Humans must choose between the advantages of using Solid AI and the unintended challenges. &nbsp,

Continue Reading

Investors welcome China’s rate cuts but want fiscal catalyst – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

One of the most drastic interventions by the People’s Bank of China ( PBOC ) in recent years is China’s slashing of its key lending rates on Monday. &nbsp,

The one-year loan prime rate ( LPR ) was reduced by 25 basis points to 3.1 %, and the five-year LPR, widely used as the benchmark for mortgages, fell by a similar margin to 3.6 %. &nbsp,

For global investors, this news could n’t come at a better time. The second-largest economy in the world has experienced slow growth, mostly as a result of a combination of negative pressures, deflationary pressures, and weak consumer demand.

These rate reduces underscore the necessity of Chinese politicians ‘ efforts to revive a growth trend that has been sluggish for decades. &nbsp,

For traders, this is a pleasant walk. Lower borrowing costs should help businesses and households, bringing in new liquidity and regaining the economic speed that has been severely lacking. &nbsp,

However, while monetary easing will undoubtedly be a powerful lever, it’s increasingly clear that a more potent fiscal response – especially targeting households – will be the key to achieving the country’s year-end target of 5 % GDP growth.

Ripple result

When China’s central bank makes a decisive move to boost its economy, international markets typically sigh a collective sigh of relief. &nbsp,

Many global investors have been watching China’s financial challenges with growing suspicion, and the PBOC’s price reductions may include a rippling effect, boosting optimism among them. &nbsp,

Lower interest rates are anticipated to encourage customer saving and investment in vital businesses, creating a more positive environment for Chinese stocks and bonds.

These actions may also ease worries about China’s troubled property market, which is a major boon for the world economy. &nbsp,

A more affordable payment climate could assist property developers in need and, in turn, stabilize a market that accounts for almost 30 % of China’s GDP. If the new PBOC cuts manage to recover some trust in this field, it could have a significant impact on all major financial markets, starting from commodities to equities.

Moreover, with China being the largest consumer of raw materials and an engine of global demand, a treatment in its property market may possibly result to a broad-based protest in goods, boosting industry worldwide.

Good but inadequate?

However, investors are aware that monetary policy alone may only bring about positive outcomes despite the quick praise these cuts will bring. &nbsp,

Lower interest rates will ease the economic burden on businesses and individuals, but they do little to tackle the deeper structural issues that China faces because they are multidimensional.

Consumer confidence in China is also small, hurt by the continuous property slump and worries about deflation. &nbsp,

Companies, too, have been anxious to ramp up purchase, given the weak demand. This implies that despite the advantages of monetary easing, lower rates may not produce the solid consumption or investment required to ignite a meaningful recovery.

The difficulty lies in the fact that many of the problems that are stifling China’s market are demand-side in nature. &nbsp,

It’s not that consumers and businesses ca n’t borrow – it’s that they’re hesitant to spend and invest. &nbsp,

Fiscal policy must be complemented by striking fiscal measures designed to stimulate consumption and investment in order for China’s growth engine to really revive it.

A significant fiscal response that gives households the cash they need is what China desperately needs right then. &nbsp,

A massive, targeted fiscal item, whether through tax breaks, subsidies or direct cash transfers, did go a long way toward reigniting need.

Additionally, a fiscal push intended to boost household incomes may help to offset the problem of rising living costs and stagnant wages, which have been significant factors in the diminished consumer sentiment. &nbsp,

Households are more likely to invest, especially on enclosure, with more disposable income, which would help relieve pressures on the property field.

China may help create a much stronger recovery, one that will last a long time, by combining fiscal stimulus with the most recent wave of economic easing. &nbsp,

Beijing may increase its chances of meeting its 5 % GDP growth target for 2024 by doing so, as well as comfort the world’s confidence that it has the resources and the will to combat its economic downturn.

deVere Group was founded by Nigel Green as its CEO.

Continue Reading

South Koreans question reports of Northern troops in Russia – Asia Times

By:
On:
In: Asia

Reports from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service ( NIS ) state North Korea has moved to&nbsp, deploy 12, 000 troops&nbsp, to Russia to support its military operations against Ukraine.

This ability deployment expands North Korea’s and Russia’s defense cooperation, which is a significant development in foreign geopolitics. It raises questions about the presence of outside forces and the dynamic change in the Ukraine conflict.

Such a shift might change the course of the conflict, causing European nations to put pressure on South Korea to reevaluate its self-imposed policy of not providing destructive military equipment.

According to reports, North Korea began sending unique functions troops to Russia between October 8 and 13, with original operations of around 1,500 troops. According to reports, they are fitted out with false identification and Russian clothing to make an appearance as locals, which suggests they were making clever moves to cover up their presence.

This development comes in response to recent political encounters between North Korea and Russia, including the filing of a pact for military assistance.

The implementation represents an increase. In South Korea, issue is growing that the pressure will push the Yoon Administration to&nbsp, raise or to change&nbsp, its plan to help the payment of destructive military technology.

There is very little private assistance for changing or expanding Ukraine’s assistance plan.

A change in policy that permits the contribution of destructive military equipment may have a bearing on South Korea’s commerce with Russia and, specifically, Central Asia, and bring it even further in line with the US, Japan, and NATO.

With the importation of raw materials and energy sources, South Korea’s commerce with Russia continues to be strong. Also, despite restrictions, South Korea’s export via next countries in Central Asia remain higher.

Some South Koreans have questioned the most recent knowledge:

1. Statistics and sources

The NIS figures are pretty high, critics say. Although it is believed that the information came from US and/or Ukrainian solutions, no details about where it came from have been made people. Several&nbsp, online sources&nbsp, corroborating that North Korean workers are being transported to Russia travel from and are frequently dispersed through Russian accounts.

2. Other explanations

The critics add that there are other possible explanations for the rollout being alleged. The number of 12, 000 army could indicate a prediction rather than confirmed operations, based on North Korea’s broader military programs. Additionally, it’s possible that smaller, gradual deployments are planned, and that the intelligence community’s recent figures reflect possible rather than actual existence. These soldiers might even provide non-combat functions, such as border guards and rear-guard procedures, rather than back range operations.

3. National Intelligence Service democratization

Additionally, interlocutors point out that South Korean intelligence service have a history of overstripping or undermining North Korean pursuits, which might put pressure on national security concerns. In this case, the large estimation of 12, 000 troops may serve some strategic purposes. The NIS does argue that closer security cooperation between South Korea, the US, and friends by highlighting the size of the implementation.

    As this is an evolving situation and mistakes in first intelligence assessments may be anticipated, those who question caution caution that it will still be necessary to deny final judgment until further credible information is available. The fluidity of intelligence gathering, particularly when there is n’t any independent verification from international sources, could contribute to the overestimation.

    A North Korean deployment’s justification must also be taken into account. &nbsp, North Korea will benefit&nbsp, from the move, which will secure monetary or in-kind payments for each soldier. In order to continue receiving secure technological assistance and political support to ease sanctions, it will strengthen and secure the relationship with Russia. Finally, it will also provide modern war combat experience for elite troops.

    If the deployment is confirmed at scale, it is likely to lead to&nbsp, increased challenges for North Korea. These includes enhanced sanctions monitoring, a heightened state of alert in South Korea and defections.

    Additionally, there are concerns about desertions and operational failures involving North Korea’s troops, which are further complicating the situation. South Korean defense officials also point out the possibility of casualties among the forces already present, though details are still undetermined.

    The situation remains fluid, and more reliable evidence is needed to confirm the full scope of North Korea’s involvement.

    The actual deployment’s size and effects will depend heavily on regional monitoring and western intelligence. As a result, such confirmation would lessen the ability of opponents to doubt the deployment.

    In the short term, within the next year, further troop movements from North Korea may be observed, potentially escalating tensions among South Korea, the US and North Korea. The uncertainty that is currently being expressed would be significantly lessened by this.

    In the medium term, one to five years, the deepening Russia-North Korea partnership could reshape regional power dynamics, impacting Northeast Asia’s security environment.

    Looking five to ten years in, Moscow and Pyongyang’s persistent military cooperation may alter geopolitical alignments, potentially enticing other small states to form similar strategic alliances.

    Jeffrey Robertson is a Yonsei University in Seoul’s associate professor of diplomatic studies. This article was originally published on his Substack, Diplomatic Seoul. It is republished with permission.

    Continue Reading

    Turkey’s BRICS bid a high-stakes hedge against the West – Asia Times

    By:
    On:
    In: Asia, World

    Turkey has requested to join BRICS, the team of emerging-market markets, in a significant political move that may have profound effects on the global system of alliances, as a sign of its desire to expand its partnerships beyond the West.

    The BRICS gathering, named after Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, comprises some of the country’s largest economy. Earlier this year, it welcomed four fresh people: Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Egypt.

    Saudi Arabia has been invited to join, but the formal approach has not yet begun. The BRICS represent a major change in global power relationships, often seen as an alternative to Western-led organizations like the EU, G7, and NATO.

    As the center of the world economy shifts away from the West, Ankara’s selection may serve as a strategy to improve ties with non-Western nations, but it also has to do with pursuing more trade with BRICS members.

    Turkey’s application was made public prior to the BRICS mountain, which will take place on October 22. Its inclusion in NATO has broader relevance. If accepted, Turkey would be the first NATO part of BRICS.

    This does not, however, mean that Turkey is completely rejecting the West. Turkey has strong administrative relations to the West. At most, this walk signals Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s objective to enhance the government’s freedom in its international relations.

    Erdogan stated on September 1 that this action demonstrates Ankara’s desire to “become a powerful, rich, prominent, and powerful state if it strengthens its relations with the East and the West at the same time.”

    Turkey’s understanding into the party may be discussed during the forthcoming 16th BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia. Different nations are preparing to meet, along with Malaysia, Thailand, and Azerbaijan.

    Between East and West

    Turkey’s attempt to balance the East and West is based on its plans since the end of the Cold War, which is in line with its geographic location, which is between Europe and Asia.

    This method has been central to Turkey’s complex, at times competing, approach to international relationships and remains essential in an increasingly complex world. All governments have had to reevaluate their international policies as a result of the transition from a multipolar world, which is based on the notion that there are more earth capabilities.

    Turkey’s eagerness to meet the BRICS group is unlikely to represent a break from its European allies because of its long-standing commitment to NATO. Turkey’s economic, political, and military ties with Russia and China have grown since 2016, and this trend is evident in its most recent admission to the BRICS team.

    There is no pressing reason for the West to be alarmed about Turkey making agreements to Russia or acting independently of NATO, according to some experts in Turkey foreign policy.

    Map of the Black Sea region.
    Map of the Black Sea place. Stock via The Chat

    There are two subsidies driving Turkey’s program. The first is Turkey’s desire to improve its strategic autonomy in international policy, according to Sinan Ulgen, chairman of the Istanbul-based Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies, which basically involves strengthening relations with non-Western power like Russia and China in a bid to compromise the relationship with the West.

    The second is the accumulated annoyances over the connection with the West. For instance, the EU was unable to actually make a decision regarding the start of negotiations regarding the revision of its business agreement with Turkey, which dates back to 1996.

    Control of the Black Sea

    Turkey has been interested in joining the BRICS class since 2018. Putin, during a meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Moscow in June this year, welcomed Ankara’s curiosity and promised that Moscow” will aid this desire to be together with the states of this alliance]Brics ], to be together, closer, to resolve typical issues”.

    Russia has made more efforts to win the help of more nations since the conflict in Ukraine. Turkey’s geopolitical area and its power of the Black Sea straits, a crucial business way for both Ukraine and Russia, are of particular value in this effort.

    Turkey has been a key player in the Ukraine conflict, and the Black Sea has allowed Ukraine to remain using the lakes as a result of its association, which has stymied Russia’s efforts to impose full control over the waters.

    The Greek Islands ‘ seafaring transportation is governed by the Montreux Convention. The convention makes distinctions between the past and the past, including Russia and Ukraine, while also acknowledging the advantages of the former.

    Erdogan stated in March 2022 that the agreement allows Turkey to impose restrictions on the movement of naval vessels belonging to the celebrations at war. Putin may be hoping that he can inspire Turkey to give him more liberty because Turkey is seen as a Brics supporter. Russia’s current inability to control the Black Sea and its cargo ships severely limits its capacity to stifle Ukraine’s business.

    Turkey anticipates that becoming a member of the BRICS will strengthen its political position and strengthen its economic sway, particularly in non-western marketplaces. The most important thing is that it uses its political position to influence international affairs and pursue a more balanced and varied foreign policy.

    It is obvious that Turkey wants to keep its ties to the West, but it also needs the freedom to collaborate with another countries. It is very unlikely that this will significantly alter Turkey’s relations to European nations. However, it might produce other NATO members to be concerned about how much they can count on Turkey in the future.

    Bulent Gokay is professor of international relationships, Keele University

    The Conversation has republished this essay under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

    Continue Reading

    Tariffs or no tariffs, EVs are going to win the day – Asia Times

    By:
    On:
    In: Asia, Technology

    One of the most significant and positive trends that I’ve been attempting to identify is the remarkable advancements in battery technology over the past few years.

    For a wide range of applications, batteries are in competition with combustion engines thanks to significant increases in energy density and also greater reductions in production costs. The most important of these is travel.

    At the beginning of this time, the great story about electric cars was that&nbsp, profits were slowing down. Critics of EVs claimed that they are a display in the pan, that attention is now waning, that internal combustion car problems would prevent them from ever becoming obsolete, that EVs will never be sustainable without subsidies, and so on. Basically, the story was that&nbsp, the EV rebellion was over, or at least stalled continuously.

    That tale has today largely collapsed. After only a few months, EV sales in the US rose again, and their market share has reached a new report great:

    Origin: &nbsp, Michael Thomas

    And Vehicles continue to surpass fire cars:

    Origin: &nbsp, Michael Thomas

    There is also no indication of a worldwide decline:

    Origin: BNEF via&nbsp, Colin Mckerracher

    Vehicle sales are increasing dramatically in a number of developing nations:

    Source: RMI

    But EVs are also winning. But&nbsp, they have n’t won yet, only 4 % of the global passenger car fleet, 23 % of the bus fleet, and less than 1 % of delivery trucks are electrified.

    But at this point, I think the reading is on the walls.

    It’s not unusual to see a new technology replacing an older, inferior technology, and it usually appears that the EV transition is now. When a new technology passes a 5 % implementation level, it almost always turns out to be superior to what came before, with Vehicles, that threshold has now&nbsp, been reached in lots of places.

    In fact, we do n’t have to rely on trend-based forecasting to understand why EVs are just going to win. A number of important elements distinguish EVs from conventional combustion vehicles. These natural benefits will become more apparent in the market as time goes on.

    The first of these is&nbsp, rate. Now, Batteries typically require government grants in order to be price-competitive with fire trucks. However, chargers are becoming less and less expensive as we become more adept at creating them. The grants needed to convert people to EVs are the lower the battery prices. &nbsp, Goldman Sachs reports&nbsp, that this important turning point may be reached in about two times:

    According to a new presentation from Goldman Sachs Research, technological advancements intended to boost power electricity mass, in addition to a decline in green metal prices, are anticipated to cause battery prices to drop below originally anticipated.

    Further, Goldman Sachs ‘ researchers forecast that average battery prices could drop as much as US$ 80/k Wh by 2026, which would be a drop of almost 50 % from the 2023 levels.

    The investment tycoon anticipates that battery electric vehicles will eventually be able to charge the same as ICE vehicles on an unsubsidized basis in the United States.

    The EV trend may gain momentum once batteries reach that point. Simply put, purchasing an EV will be less expensive than a fire vehicle. People will gravitate toward the cheaper option, particularly if it comes with various benefits. And in this situation, it does.

    EVs ‘ next benefit is&nbsp, comfort. Most Vehicle owners will&nbsp, nearly never have to replace their vehicles off at a place. Because they will cost their vehicles at night, in their own cars or driveways.

    The BYD Atto 3 has a range of 260 yards. Assume you only use half as much of your cell each day to recharge your Atto 3 ( as you would with your mobile ). That’s 130 yards. And let’s say that just to be on the safe side, you’d quit driving at 100 yards a day.

    Very few Americans drive their cars&nbsp, for more than 100 yards a moment! The amount is&nbsp, less than 1 %. The regular number of miles driven per day is about 40. Which means that as an EV owner, on all those days when you&nbsp, do n’t &nbsp, drive over 100 miles, you will&nbsp, never have to visit a charging station at all, any more than you now visit charging stations for your phone.

    I believe that many Americans still do n’t comprehend this fundamental truth about electric vehicles. They’ve spent their entire adult lives regularly filling up gas stations, so it’s only natural for them to think about going to an EV charging station whenever their chargers run small.

    But&nbsp, that’s not how Tesla job at all! &nbsp, They’re more like a phone than a vehicle — you plug them in at home, but you&nbsp, about never&nbsp, have to cost them when you’re out and about.

    Of course, not everyone will find this to be true because not everyone has a vehicle charging station at house. It will be much harder for you to possess an electric vehicle if you park on the street rather than in a garage or driveway.

    But&nbsp, fewer than 10 % of Americans&nbsp, area on the street when they’re at home. If you live in an apartment building, it will eventually have EV chargers in most or all of its parking lots, especially as EV implementation rises.

    This implies that it makes no sense to just compare the time it takes to command an electric vehicle to the time it takes to fill the gas tank of a combustion car. With a fire vehicle, you’ll be going to the oil station&nbsp, about once a week, spending about 8 hours that each time.

    With an Vehicle, it’ll get 30-40 hours at a place to charge your vehicle entirely, but&nbsp, you’ll almost never go to a stop. You’ll just be able to travel on a road trip or on those rare occasions when you need to travel more than 100 miles per day. So the right contrast of filling days is “eight days every week, or 30-40 days on very rare occasions”. The latter is just much more convenient.

    EVs ‘ third big advantage is that they require&nbsp, much less maintenance&nbsp, than combustion cars. A complicated engine with a lot of moving parts that can breakdown is found in a combustion car. With less machinery in between, an EV is much simpler, getting its energy directly from the battery. Less expensive parts mean fewer breakdowns for cars. That’s why EV maintenance costs are &nbsp, 50 % lower than combustion cars.

    EVs ‘ fourth advantage is&nbsp, faster acceleration. Acceleration is one of the things people enjoy the most about driving cars, and EVs just completely&nbsp, destroy combustion cars&nbsp, here. A battery-powered electric motor can start accelerating your car with maximum force pretty much instantaneously, as soon as you hit the pedal.

    A combustion car must burn all of its gears and shift a lot of them before the acceleration can begin. Thus, EVs will always be able to go from 0 to 60 faster than combustion cars.

    EVs ‘ fifth advantage is&nbsp, quiet. With that controlled explosion and all of those moving parts, combustion cars make a lot of noise. Since all they do is push electrons through a wire, EVs are incredibly quiet.

    This is why EVs are &nbsp, far, far quieter&nbsp, than combustion cars. &nbsp, That’s helpful for when you’re driving and want to listen to music or a podcast. The less growling, roaring combustion cars on the streets, the more peace and quiet we all enjoy, which is also beneficial for the neighborhood around you.

    That’s a significant set of technological benefits for electric vehicles. What benefits still exist for ICE cars? Combustion cars ‘ range advantage has basically evaporated, with plenty of EVs having&nbsp, ranges of over 300 miles. Even without subsidies, their minuscule cost advantage is on the verge of losing out in a few years. Since EV owners rarely have to fill up, their quicker fill-up time almost never comes into play.

    Other than the familiarity born of long use, I do n’t see many significant, enduring advantages for combustion cars over EVs. And as EVs become more popular, combustion cars will become less and less convenient, because of a doom loop. In&nbsp, a post a year ago, I tried to explain why:

    ]T] he more gas stations there are, the more convenient it is to drive, and the more people drive, the more profitable it is to run a gas station. This reinforces one another because we have a lot of cars and a lot of gas stations.

    EVs will reduce gas stations ‘ operating profits by removing internal combustion traffic from the road. Gas stations have fixed costs that they must cover by serving a larger population of customers. However, when they can serve fewer customers, their fixed costs are higher, and some fail to service their customers ( or switch entirely to EV charging stations ).

    When the number of gasoline-powered cars on the road goes down by double-digit percentages, it’s going to lead to a lot of closures or conversions. Driving an internal combustion car as your primary mode of transportation becomes more challenging when some gas stations vanish.

    This is due to the decreasing number of gas stations. When traveling for a long distance, this causes range anxiety, but it also makes you drive farther and fill up more fuel. That encourages people to switch to an electric vehicle.

    Take note that EVs have yet another subtle advantage over combustion cars thanks to this network effect. In order to be usable, combustion cars rely on a nationwide network of gas stations. However, EVs almost always charge at home, so they do n’t need to have a network of charging stations as much.

    So EVs are merely a better form of technology than gasoline cars. They’re soon to be cheaper, they’re more convenient, they’re much easier to maintain, they’re more powerful and far more silent. They will mostly replace combustion vehicles, it’s just a matter of when.

    This fact needs to be made clear to the American industry. Chinese automakers have been much more aggressive than their established rivals right now in terms of switching to EV technology. Bloomberg’s Gabrielle Coppola and Danny Lee have &nbsp, an excellent, sobering feature&nbsp, on the rise of China’s electric auto champion BYD:

    Executives from Detroit to Tokyo are now having to figure out how to compete with BYD, and they are aware that tariffs alone wo n’t work. For years, they could n’t or would n’t make the case for cannibalizing profitable business with an expensive, technologically novel experiment such as the electric vehicle, and now it’s unclear if they’ll ever catch up.

    The&nbsp, Alliance for American Manufacturing&nbsp, ( AAM ), a lobbying group representing American companies and labor groups, has called China’s EV offensive” an extinction-level event” for the American auto industry. They are aware that many Americans who are looking for an affordable option would likely be happy to buy BYD has built EVs.

    Tesla was America’s response to BYD, indeed, it did more than BYD to lead the charge in many of the key EV innovations and lower their costs in the 2010s. It’s still ( just barely ) the world’s top electric car seller.

    However, Tesla has fallen off the rails in the past year or two, losing some market share to traditional automakers in the US and having to compete with Chinese rivals in the domestic market. Hopefully Tesla will recover its footing, but even if so, the US needs more than one EV champion.

    However, despite the US’s lag, the EV revolution is beneficial for the rest of the world. The rise of EVs will help the world&nbsp, mitigate climate change, and benefit consumers directly by making them better cars to drive. In these troubled times, there is undoubtedly a reason for optimism.

    This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Noah Smith’s Noahpinion&nbsp, Substack and is republished with kind permission. Read the original&nbsp, here &nbsp, and become a Noahopinion&nbsp, subscriber&nbsp, here.

    Continue Reading

    Nobel Prize endorses US abandonment of free markets – Asia Times

    By:
    On:
    In: Asia

    The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, following a proposal by the Economic Sciences Prize Committee, awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson and James A Robinson for their so-called “groundbreaking” operate on the part of corporations in shaping economic growth.

    Their analysis reveals how industrial institutions contribute to regional failure while inclusive institutions contribute to economic growth. Elinor Ostrom and Oliver E. Williamson were honored for their groundbreaking efforts to financial management, especially those that concern how companies manage shared solutions and resolve conflicts, with this choice recalling the 2009 Nobel Prize.

    By appointing a political scientist and an analyst to study these topics within corporations, the Nobel Committee in 2009 acknowledged the value of institutions and management. Also, the 2024 award reflects a move away from free-market finance, emphasizing rather how institutional systems and governance structures affect economic outcomes.

    Why, especially in the wake of numerous economic and financial crises, has the Nobel Committee regularly favored non-economic ideas over standard economic models? Look no further than the constraints the Nobel collection commission good faced given the changing geopolitical environment.

    The decision to award Ostrom and Williamson in 2009 was primarily motivated by the effects of the global financial crisis of 2008, when Western free-market beliefs were subject to intense scrutiny.

    The long-held conviction that areas allocate resources effectively, resulting in products and services at the lowest rates, maximum profits for producers, and no tool wastage, was demonstrated to be fundamentally flawed.

    Alan Greenspan, a steadfast supporter of liberal economic theory and the US Federal Reserve’s longest-serving chair, reportedly admitted during a parliamentary hearing that he had mistakenly assumed that resources would be distributed effectively.

    According to Greenspan,” a crucial pillar of business rivals and completely markets did collapse.” ” I still do not completely comprehend why it happened”.

    Given that choosing a free-market economist would have been socially indefensible in the context of the time’s economic collapse, Ostrom and Williamson’s collection was more of a need than a decision.

    In 2024, the selection committee experienced a similar position. In recent years, the West has gradually abandoned the principles of free-market economy and completely industry in the face of China’s state-led and subsidy-fed economic giant.

    Traditional economic theory contends that grants harm free areas because they cause a disconnect between prices and production costs, distorting marketplaces, leading to wasteful outcomes, and directing resources to less productive activities. Additionally, trade protectionism is viewed as a business displacement that results in errors and misallocations.

    But, US President Joe Biden’s financial plans have evidently departed from free-market rules. His trade policies have led to the most extraordinary protectionism in British history, while his professional policies have been characterized by big government intervention, including strong subsidies, tax breaks, and low credit.

    The Research and Development, Competition and Innovation Act, the CHIPS &amp, Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act ( IRA ), are important pieces of legislation that offer American businesses significant tax breaks and subsidies. The Biden administration has also instituted a” Buy America” policy for government procurement, a serious violation of World Trade Organization ( WTO ) agreements.

    These lending terms and advantageous terms for US businesses highlight Biden’s support for mercantilist trade practices. This includes preserving Trump-era taxes on foreign goods, local material needs, and disciplinary measures against alleged foreign dumping in US marketplaces.

    Ironically, the United States has imposed tariffs of up to 100 % on Chinese-made electric vehicles ( EVs ), far exceeding the tariffs under the Smoot– Hawley Tariff Act of the 1930s, which imposed a maximum tariff of about 62 %.

    In an April 27, 2023 statement at the Brookings Institution, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan outlined the Biden administration’s monetary policy, attributing many of the region’s challenges—such as a hollowed-out manufacturing base, economic inequality, China’s fall and the weather crisis—to prior economic policies.

    Sullivan criticized “hyperglobalization”, deregulation and blind faith in trickle-down economics and market efficiency. He argued that the goal of liberalizing trade was to achieve nothing more than its broad-results.

    The US Treasury, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank led the effort to promote free markets and trade liberalization in the 1990s, which was a significant departure from the” Washington Consensus.”

    Sullivan made it clear that Bidenomics does not rely on the free-market theory that the West once proclaimed as superior to other economic systems. There was a presumption at the heart of all of this regulation: that markets always allocate capital productively and efficiently, no matter what our competitors did, no matter how much our shared challenges grew, and no matter how many guardrails we erected,” Sullivan said.

    ” Now, no one—certainly not me—is discounting the power of markets. But in the name of oversimplified market efficiency, entire supply chains of strategic goods —along with the industries and jobs that made them—moved overseas. And the postulate that a significant amount of trade liberalization would support American exports of goods was made but not kept was also true.

    Regardless of the outcome of the 2024 presidential election in November, Sullivan’s remarks suggest that the United States is turning away from the market economy and adopting a more protectionist stance.

    Through the seizure of Russian assets, which challenges the status of private ownership, the West has also undermined the sanctity of private property. These sanctions, including the freezing of assets and the expropriating of those held by Western banks by the Russian Central Bank, directly violate private property rights.

    By politicizing economic assets and further undermining the principles of market-based economies, this unprecedented move sets a dangerous precedent. The US-led West has eroded the trust that global capital depends on because it blurs the lines between political retribution and economic governance.

    This undermines the laissez-faire economic ideology and destabilizes the global economic order.

    One of the biggest paradoxes of the first decade of the 21st century is that the United States, once the biggest supporter of free-market economics and free trade, is now implementing protectionist measures at a rate unobservable since the 1930s.

    In essence, the US is putting national security before economic efficiency, and it rejects the notion that” the government is best when governs least.” Meanwhile, China’s Communist Party-led government has become the world’s leading advocate for free trade.

    The Nobel Selection Committee de facto supported the West’s shift away from liberalization and globalization by awarding the Nobel Prize to institutions-focused economists. In this context, institutional economics justifies more government intervention in the economy to detriment free markets that were once supported by the US and the West.

    Continue Reading

    ICC hands Marcos Jr a ready way to dispose of Duterte – Asia Times

    By:
    On:
    In: Asia

    Rodrigo Duterte, the former leader of the Philippines, is alleged to have played a key role in the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity committed during the preceding government’s deadly war on drugs strategy, but international justice seems to be coming for him.

    Duterte has repeatedly denied responsibility for the reportedly killing tens of thousands of people without undergoing the necessary legal proceedings. Former police officer Royina Garma revealed last week to a council before the election that the former president had offered police officials up to US$ 7,000 to kill suspected drug dealers and users. &nbsp,

    Garma claimed that Duterte wanted to use the previous campaign he led as mayor of Davao City, in which rewards and bonuses were given to officers officials who killed more than detained drug suspects, to model his country’s assault on drugs. &nbsp,

    The International Criminal Court ( ICC), which started looking into killings under Duterte’s rule in 2017, has been prompted by the damning allegation. Duette reportedly threatened to pull the ICC’s investigators to” crocodiles” if they entered the country and told his officials to refrain from cooperating with it. &nbsp,

    During his six years in office, which included 2016 and 2022, Duterte’s policy focus was the war on drugs, which was really common, according to several opinion polls. Years of dangerous anti-drug procedures and vigilant violence led to the deaths of thousands of Filipinos, according to some human rights organizations, who reportedly had as many as 30 000 people killed.

    Duterte at the time demanded that drug users be” slaughtered” and also offered to pay the legal costs of police officers who were accused of carrying out the plan.

    The former president after urged people to eliminate drug dealers during his first press conference, while he officially mandated that the nation’s top customs official shoot and kill drug smugglers in 2020.

    Garma’s most recent discovery has raised concerns about fairness for drug combat victims and their families. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the current president, has so far resolutely opposed cooperating with the ICC in its investigation of Duterte, declaring to the internet in January that he would” not raise a hand” to aid in its studies.

    Earlier, Marcos Jr’s unwillingness to engage was not unexpected. In the run-up to the 2022 election, the Marcos clan and the Duterte dynasty became democratic allies despite having much in common despite the Duterte clan’s being relative newcomers and their respective positions on power and wealth.

    In a bid to merge their voting blocs, Sara Duterte, the former president’s daughter, sealed the alliance, which resulted in a political union that put Sara Duterte in the running chamfer of 2028.

    However, the president might have a chance to change his mind about the ICC if the two people get into an extremely heated conflict. Vice President Sara Duterte just threatened to dig up the remains of the government’s father, former despot Ferdinand Marcos Senior, and put them into the ocean. The marriage has become irretrievably dangerous.

    This comes after her ex-presidential parents made a public accusation of Marcos Jr. of being a “drug addiction” in January. He has also launched a campaign against Marcos Jr.’s corporate stance toward the US and away from China, which falls short of Duterte’s legacy of friendly relations with Beijing.

    In June, Sara abruptly left Marcos Jr.’s government in the midst of numerous people disagreements. The Duterte family is well-known for having fears that Marcos Jr. may propose to amend the constitution to allow him to work for a minute six-year term, a potential challenge to Sara’s own presidential bid in 2028.

    Marcos Jr. has so far been least likely to criticize his Duterte family rivals in public, but that does n’t mean he wo n’t ultimately cooperate with the ICC if it serves his political goals. According to reports, the ICC is reportedly planning to challenge a Duterte arrest warrant, which could make Marcos Jr.’s ideal situation a perfect match for an unanticipated walk.

    Cooperating with the ICC might sour the Trump clan’s political interests, including the former mayor’s recently announced charge to become mayor of Davao City, a position he held for many conditions before becoming president.

    Marcos Jr. made a commitment during his prosperous election campaign that would give him the chance to finally finish the contentious drug war. While the senator has made a genuine effort to combat illegal drugs with a less deadly, less lethal strategy, drug-related deaths have continued under his administration.

    With surveys indicating new Filipino public support for the ICC’s investigation, Marcos Jr. has political support to resume his deadly anti-drug procedures once and for all.

    That would also give the judge the chance to pursue those responsible for extrajudicial murders since 2016 and bring justice to the victims and their families from the drug war by holding the ex-president guilty.

    This situation has the ability to be win-win for Marcos Jr. The president may win social points by cloning a gloomy and lethal chapter in the nation’s history, one that claimed the lives of tens of thousands of people and left their families behind. The leader should use both hands when it comes to pursuing fairness because it offers both political and moral opportunities.

    Continue Reading

    What the West could learn from China on education – Asia Times

    By:
    On:
    In: Asia

    A belief that Chinese students are taught through rote, silent learning is broadly accepted in the West, and this type of education will only lead to the development of obedient workers without creativity or innovation.

    We contend that this is untrue. In fact, there are many very successful students and a highly creative and skilled workforce in China’s educational system. We believe that the world may take away from this.

    Apple CEO Tim Cook made a point in a popular video earlier this year about the special attention of skilled labour attracted to China’s production operations:

    In the US, you could have a meeting of casting professionals, and I’m not sure we had fill the room. You may fill several football fields in China.

    Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk responded swiftly on X:” True.”

    When South African President Cyril Ramaphosa made a surprise visit to the Shenzhen office of BYD earlier this year to learn that the company planned to increase its 100, 000-strong executive task force within the upcoming generation.

    He might not have been aware that Chinese institutions produce more than ten million alumni annually, which constitutes the foundation of a super-economy.

    The dilemma of the Taiwanese person

    Chinese educators achieve amazing success rates compared to their Western – or non-Confucian-heritage – rivals.

    In terms of reading, mathematics, and technology, 15-year-olds in China have topped the group desk three out of four times since Shanghai initially took part in the PISA education assessment in 2009, ranking 15-year-olds in China at the top of the table.

    How may a supposedly silent and monotonous Chinese system outperform its European competitors? Since the 1990s, a number of Asian academics have been studying this “paradox of the Chinese person.”

    Their research demonstrates that these widespread views of Chinese and other Eastern educators are false. For instance, repeat and significant learning are not mutually exclusive. According to a Taiwanese proverb:

    书读百遍其意自现 – meaning reveals itself when you read something several days.

    What is American schooling learn?

    A defining characteristic of Chinese society is the emphasis on education. Since Confucianism became the state-sanctioned doctrine in the Han Dynasty ( 202BCE–220CE), education has entered every fabric of Chinese culture.

    This became especially important after the Sui Dynasty institutionalized the Keju system of civil service examinations ( 581CE–618CE).

    Now, the Gaokao University entrance exam is the current Keju equivalent. Every time, a lot of school graduates take the exam. For three days in July, Chinese society generally comes to a halt for the Gaokao.

    Although everyone involved in the system is a big motivator for the culture, it is not something that can be easily learned and applied to other Western cultures.

    However, there are two concepts we believe are key to Chinese academic achievement, at both the reader and program levels. To explain these, we use two Chinese expressions.

    The primary we call “orderly and steady development” – 循序渐进. This theory stresses person, step-by-step and sequenced learning, sustained by toughness and delayed pleasure.

    The minute we call” heavy accumulation before slim production” – 厚积薄发. This idea emphasizes the importance of two points:

    • a solid basis by accumulating fundamental skills and knowledge.
    • integration, integration and creative imagination only come after this solid base.
    Approach to art: Since 2013, regular lettering lessons have been required in Foreign primary and middle schools. Photo: Getty Images/The Conversation

    The method of learning calligraphy is the epitome of ordered and progressive development. It goes from simple to tough, simple to complicated, imitating to complimentary composing, technique to artwork. It has been a required weekly training in all primary and middle schools in China since 2013.

    The art of Chinese creating embraces patience, devotion, breathing, focus and an appreciation of the natural splendor of music. It teaches the principles of harmony and visual heart from China.

    ” Solid deposition” can be illustrated in the way kids study extremely painful for the national Gaokao exam, and also during secondary education. In this way, they acquire the fundamental skills and knowledge needed for current world.

    The ability to filter or concentrate this accumulated knowledge and skill in order to find and implement innovative solutions at work or elsewhere is referred to as” thin production.”

    Ways of learning

    The focus on continuous and steady development and the development of fundamental skills and knowledge may appear to be a slow, routine, and boring process, which is the source of those common misconceptions about Chinese learning.

    In fact, it boils down to a plain discussion: without a critical mass of fundamental knowledge and skills, there is little to adapt and integrate for effective creativity.

    Of course, there are issues with Taiwanese learning and education, not least the brutal competitiveness and emphasis on investigations. However, our goal here is to illustrate how two fundamental academic tenets support Chinese advancements in science and technology in a contemporary information economy.

    We believe these principles are applicable and probably beneficial for politicians, scholars and learners abroad.

    Stephen Dobson is doctor and professor of learning and the artists at CQUniversity Australia, while Peter Yongqi Gu is associate teacher at Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington.

    The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

    Continue Reading