Europe can’t be defended against Russian attack: report – Asia Times

A shocking but accurate record on European and European defense has been released by the German Kiel Institute. According to the report, the state of Germany, Europe, and the United States is nevertheless terrible.

Bottom line: Despite all the talk of a NATO combat, the alliance, including the United States, is not prepared for any conflict with Russia. Additionally, it makes the suggestion that the cost of security products is causing profit for defense companies but not for the sake of security as a whole.

The Kiel Institute, founded in 1914, is regarded as Germany’s leading significant think tank. In September, the Institute&nbsp, produced a study &nbsp, called” Fit for war in decades: Europe’s and Germany’s slow rearmament vis-a-vis Russia”.

The review makes a significant point about how ready Germany and other European nations are when Russia attacks them. Additionally, it tells a terrible story about how expensive and unsatisfactory European protection manufacturing has become. &nbsp, &nbsp,

A fantastic example is Germany’s Caracal weather abuse car. A Caracal is a kind of crazy rabbit found in Africa, Pakistan, the Middle East and parts of India. The German car, an unarmored gussied-up car based on a Mercedes G group vehicle, was put up by Rheinmetall, Mercedes-Benz AG and ACS Armored Car Systems GmbH.

A European Caracal Air Assault Vehicle.

The Caracal lacks weapons on its wide-open sides. Over 3, 000 of these cars have been provided to Ukraine at a cost of&nbsp, 1.9 billion dollars, which works out to 620, 000 dollars per product. &nbsp,

For less than$ 35, 000 per copy, you could pin an antitank weapons or equipment gun on a four-wheel drive industrial jeep. And since Ukraine has no evacuation ability, an air abuse aircraft dropped onto the field is a non-starter. ( The euro now trades at$ 1.08 to the US dollar. )

30mm weapons for the German Puma troops fighting car is an equally abhorrent case. The Puma costs a remarkable$ 5.3 million each, while its 30mm weapons charges around &nbsp, 1, 000 dollars per chance! &nbsp,

Puma you fire up to 600 rounds per minute. That compares to a US 30mm High Explosive Dual Purpose round ( more specialized than a run-of-the-mill bullet ) at$ 100. European 30mm ammunition costs ten times more than American 30mm weapons.

Additionally, soldiers are getting defensive defense headsets from the German army. Tactically available commercially available tactical headsets retail for$ 299. If additional features like noise cancellation are added, the price may go up to$ 400, but not more. But European devices cost a whopping&nbsp, 2, 700 dollars each.

Bottom line: People and businesses are making a lot of money by providing Western armies or sending goods to Ukraine. Some people believe it to be openly corruption because institutions are involved in these transactions. Mind that the Kiel Institute just goes as far as to claim these payments are uber-expensive, no more. &nbsp,

A European Puma Tank.

The fact that Russia’s defense industry is growing rapidly and that North Korea is then adding more supplies with artillery shells and missiles is a lot, according to the Kiel record. &nbsp,

North Korea, it seems, has been grinding out weapons also in excess of anything it can use, and until now, it did not trade them. Of course, the Kim Jong Un tyranny is sustained by the Russian agreement with North Korea by providing funds or the equivalent and funding the projects.

All of this helps present, in part, that Germany’s opportunities in security are corrupted ( I think that is the right word ) by excessively expensive equipment. &nbsp,

Also if Germany really meets the NATO target of 2.1 % of GDP for defence spending, what the European military ends up receiving is incredibly expensive. Not to mention that a lot of it ends up in Ukraine and is only gradually, if at all, replaced on the domestic before.

Even with sufficient saving, what money is spent on boggles the mind. Very much, for instance, is going into heat defense, something that is important for Germany’s potential defense needs.

Nevertheless, NATO-supplied air defenses have done a poor to horrible work in Ukraine, a forerunner of a dangerous upcoming in Europe unless the problem is corrected. An interesting note ( website 25 ) in the statement, set in ultra-small form, discusses Ukraine’s ability to shoot down Russian missiles and uavs:

Sample interception rates for commonly used Russian missiles in 2024: 50 % for the older Kalibr subsonic cruise missiles, 22 % for modern subsonic cruise missiles ( e. g. Kh-69 ), 4 % for modern ballistic missiles ( e. g. Iskander-M), 0.6 % for S-300/400 supersonic long-range SAM, and 0.55 % for the Kh-22 supersonic anti-ship missile.

There is little information about the infiltration levels of hypersonic weapons: Ukraine claims a 25 % intrusion price for the Kinzhal and Zircon, but Ukrainian options also claim that to interceptions of this nature require the fire of all 32 launchers in a Patriot battery made of US-style to have any chance to shoot down a single hypersonic missile. By contrast, European Nationalist batteries have 16 rockets, and Germany has 72 launchers in full.

Take notice that Patriot’s interceptor missiles are in extremely limited stock. Manufacturing these weapons takes a long time, and setting up these weapons has proved difficult. Bolloxing manufacturing lines is also caused by a lack of crucial parts. &nbsp,

Boeing provides crucial components for the missile’s target ( when it works ) while US defense contractor Lockheed Martin is the main manufacturer. Boeing wo n’t solve that problem, at the earliest, until 2027. In addition, Boeing is currently facing a significant business strike and a crisis internally that is still far from resolved.

But there are great questions about air mechanisms. The US has given Ukraine the Patriot and other methods. The Russians put a lot of effort into destroying them, but even when they succeed, their catch level is below par. Europe has supplied IRIS-T, NSAMS and other methods that, so far as can be determined, are almost similar to the Patriot. &nbsp,

On the whole, Jewish methods are greater, but they are not deployed in Ukraine. What is regarded as the major US method for air defence, AEGIS ( in the form of AEGIS Ashore ), is not in Ukraine. The devices are in use in Romania and Poland.

Europe largely has none of its own air defense deployed in Europe. The US is not much more prosperous. Some systems, particularly the Ground-Based Mid-Course Interceptor based in Alaska, are a combined case.

The Pentagon is then searching for better-performing fighter weapons to replace its current ones. The 40 or so weapons in stock merely function about half the time despite some tests that were optimized to ensure success.

The potential is also concerning as fast weapons arrive on the field, seen in Ukraine in the form of Russia’s Kinzhal and Zircon. Hypersonic assault weapons are hardly ever a possibility for systems like the Patriot, Iris-T, or any other NATO air defense systems.

The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal weapon as seen at the 2018 Moscow&nbsp, Victory Day Parades.

The image is n’t particularly beautiful when it comes to drones, which are being shot off by Ukrainians and Russians in droves. They are difficult to kill, and present war tanks and troops fighting vehicles can be destroyed by systems like the Russian Lancet helicopter. &nbsp,

No one has yet devised a successful strategy to stop swarms of drones, not yet Israel, and stop some of the smaller attacks that pass by.

Above all, the Kiel record puts a new and important view on Europe’s security position and, by extension, the US, which is pledged by treaty to help protect Europe.

It is time to step back and assess whether a credible defense of Europe is possible in the wake of NATO’s continued expansion and growing angst in Europe and Russia. Right now, judging by the Kiel report, the answer is no.

At Asia Times, Stephen Bryen is the senior correspondent. He also served as the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s staff director and its deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. &nbsp,

This&nbsp, article was originally published on his&nbsp, Weapons and Strategy&nbsp, Substack, and is republished with permission.

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How Harris and Trump diverge on the last frontier – Asia Times

The future American president might be the first to pick up a telephone call from the Moon and pick up the line’s voice. To do so, they’ll first need to create a series of corporate place policy decisions. They’ll also need a small success.

The US leader has an enormous role in shaping place scheme during their time in office because of the huge state funding that supports place activities.

Former US presidents have benefited from this authority to strengthen their own product in place and advance the US’s position. The US has benefited from National advocacy, which has helped to secure important space milestones for the country, establish long-lasting global partnerships with civil space agencies abroad, and achieve some other important milestones.

Most presidential candidates, however, do n’t go into great detail about space policy while campaigning, leaving voters in the dark about their plans for the final frontier.

For several candidates, getting into the weeds of their room coverage plans may be more problems than it’s worth. For one, not every president also gets the chance for valuable and memorable place policy decision-making, since space missions can work on decades-long timelines. And in previous elections, those who do display support for storage initiatives have often been criticized by their competitors because of how great the costs are.

But the 2024 election is unique. For storage fans casting their ballots in November, both candidates have impressive records in space plan.

I’m interested in how those records relate to the use of that domain in a proper and green way as a scientist who studies foreign affairs in space. When given a closer look, former US presidents Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have constantly used their positions to prioritize US space leadership, but they have done so with noticeably different approaches and outcomes.

Trump’s place policy report

As president, Trump established a record of significant and lasting place policy decisions, but did so while attracting more attention to his government’s room actions than his predecessors. He frequently accepted funds for contributions and thoughts that were prior to his time in office.

The previous leader was in charge of the US Space Command‘s reorganization and the US Space Force’s re-establishment, as well as the National Space Council. These organizations coordinate governmental agencies working in the room domain, support the development and function of military space technologies, and defend national security satellites in upcoming conflicts.

A commander in military uniform waves a black flag with the emblem of the US Space Force (an arrow pointing up in front of a sphere representing the Earth).
While leader, Donald Trump oversaw the creation of the U. S. Space Force. Photo: AP via The Conversation / Alex Brandon

He also had the most effective record of recent space plan guidelines. These coverage guidelines clarify the US government’s objectives in space, including how it does help and concentrate on the private sector, monitor objects in Earth’s circle, and protect satellites from cyberattacks.

One of his most proud accomplishments of his presidency was his support for the development of the Space Force. However, this campaigning contributed to divided support for the new unit. This fragmentation disintegrated the more prevalent style of republican public assistance for space programming.

Like many leaders, not all of Trump’s views for room were realized. He safely returned the Moon to Mars, which is crucial for NASA’s mission. Given his agency’s funds request, his explicit goal of pilots reaching the moon area by 2024 was hardly practical.

Should he be elected again, the former senator may wish to promote NASA’s Moon programs by expanding investment in the company’s Artemis programme, which houses its celestial initiatives.

He might characterize the initiative as a new space race against China.

Harris in space

The Biden administration has continued to support Trump-era initiatives, resisting the temptation to undo or cancel past proposals. Its space legacy is noticeably less significant.

Harris has set the US space policy priorities and made a global impact as the head of the National Space Council.

A group of people gathered around a large table, with Kamala Harris standing at a podium at the front next to a screen that says 'National Space Council.'
As vice president, Harris has chaired the National Space Council. Photo: NASA / Joel Kowsky, CC BY-NC-ND

Notably, the Trump administration maintained a precedent that the Biden administration upheld that the president could change at any time.

In this role, Harris led the United States ‘ commitment to refrain from testing weapons in space that produce dangerous, long-lasting space debris. This decision is an example for the US for continuing to sustain space operations and acting as a model for the rest of the world’s space community.

Like some Trump administration space policy priorities, not all of Harris ‘ proposals found footing in Washington.

The council’s plan to establish a framework for comprehensively regulating commercial space activities in the US, for example, stalled in Congress.

If these new regulations had been implemented, they would have made sure that future space activities, like private businesses operating on the Moon or taking tourists to and from orbit and back, would have passed strict safety checks.

Harris may choose to continue working to organize oversight over the space industry and establish responsible standards of behavior in space should she be elected.

Alternatively, she could cede the portfolio to her own vice president, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who has virtually no track record on space policy issues.

Stability in major space policy decisions

Voters can anticipate stability in US space policy as a result of this year’s election, despite the two candidates ‘ divisive platforms.

Given their previous leadership, it’s unlikely that either candidate will attempt to significantly alter the long-term missions that the world’s largest government space organizations are currently conducting during the upcoming presidential term. And neither is likely to undercut their predecessors ‘ accomplishments.

Thomas G Roberts is postdoctoral fellow in international affairs, Georgia Institute of Technology

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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West needs to realize Ukraine cannot defeat Russia – Asia Times

A friend of mine, usually an intensely optimistic pro-Ukraine analyst, returned from Ukraine last week and told me:” It’s like the German Army in January 1945″.

The Russians are being repelled on all sides, including the Kursk state of Russia, which they had opened with little fervor and fuss in August. More important, they are running out of men.

For most of 2024, Ukraine has been losing floor. The only thing to keep in mind is how many Russians will lose in the process. This year, the eastern Donetsk region’s city of Selidove is being surrounded and, like Vuhledar earlier this month, is likely to drop in the next week or so. The terrible possibility of a significant conflict looming over Pokrovsk, a strategically important business community, looms over the winter.

Unfortunately, this is not a battle of place but of retention. Soldiers are the only thing that counts, and the calculus for Ukraine is not good in this situation.

Ukraine claims to have “liquidated” almost 700, 000 Soviet military – with more than 120, 000 killed and upwards of 500, 000 injured. Its leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, admitted in February this year to 31, 000 Ukrainian mortality, with no number given for injured.

The issue is that these Polish numbers are believed by American authorities, despite the possibility that the reality is very different. According to US options, 1 million people have been killed and wounded on both sides of the conflict. Critically, this includes a growing number of Russian citizens.

Low confidence and abandonment, as well as draft-dodging, are now major issues for Ukraine. These elements are only making the now troubling selection issues worse, making it difficult to send in new troops from the front lines.

ISW map showing the state of the confict in western Donestsk region of east Ukraine.
In the eastern Donetsk area, Pokrovsk, a strategically important town, is consistently losing ground to Ukrainian forces. Institute for the Study of War

In Ukraine, there is a terrible conversation. The issue is whether to organize the 18 to 25 age group and risk serious fatalities for them. Ukraine’s delivery charge significantly decreased in the first half of the year, leaving fewer people between the ages of 15 and 25.

Given the country’s now severe demographic crisis, the country may not be able to afford the significant attrition and mobilization of this team.

And even if this participation does go forward, by the time the required politics, policy, government and coaching have run their course, the battle may be over.

There is no instance in history where challenging Russia in an protracted battle has been successful. This be clear: this means there is a genuine possibility of fight– there is no sugar-coating this.

Zelensky’s realist war aims of&nbsp, restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 edges, along with other doubtful problems – which were uncontested and urged by a&nbsp, confused but self-aggrandizing West&nbsp, – will not be achieved, and the West’s officials are partly to blame.

American armed forces were dull, ill armed, and completely prepared for a severe and protracted discord, with ammunition stocks likely to final weeks at most due to misguided wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East.

Simply 650, 000 of the 650, 000 that were supplied to Kiev this year have been fulfilled, whereas North Korea has provided at least twice that amount to Russia.

Only the US has major weapons stocks in reserve, including thousands of armoured vehicles, tanks, and artillery pieces, and it is unlikely that it will abandon its current drip-feeding strategy for Ukraine. Even if such a decision is made, the lead-time for supply will be years, not weeks.

The environment was depressing during a personal briefing that I just had with Western defense officials. The condition is “perilous” and” since terrible as it has ever been” for Ukraine.

Western powers cannot afford another strategic disaster like Afghanistan which, in the words of Ernest Hemingway ( aptly quoted by the strategist Lawrence Freedman ), happened “gradually, then suddenly”.

There will be no decisive breakthrough by Russia’s army when they take this town or that ( say, Pokrovsk ). They have n’t the capability to do it. So, there wo n’t be a collapse – no” Kiev as Kabul” moment.

However, there are limitations to the costs Ukraine can get. We do not understand where that control lies, but we’ll know when it happens. Critically, there will be no success for Ukraine. Inexcusably, there is not, and never has been, a European plan except to burn Russia as long as possible.

Ultimately, two eminently old social questions, one involving whether a battle is just, must now be posed and resolved: whether there is a good chance of winning and whether the potential gain is a fair price.

The difficulty, as so often before, is that the West has never defined what it considers a success. The cost, however, is becoming all too apparent.

The West lacks the clarity it needs to have its objectives and limitations, which would have been the start of a plan. Officials of NATO now need to move quickly to stop using cheesy language and other nonsense. We saw where that led in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya.

We need a practical view of what a “win” or at least an appropriate settlement currently looks like, as well as the extent to which it is feasible and whether the west will actually do it. And then for European leaders to act appropriately.

Accepting that Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk are lost, things that an increasing number of Ukrainians are beginning to declare boldly, could be a good place to start. Therefore, we need to begin making serious plans for a post-war Ukraine that may require the support of the West more than ever.

Russia may possibly get all, or even the large of, Ukraine’s place. Even if it could, it could not perhaps carry it. There is abundant evidence that there will be a settlement agreement.

Therefore, it is time for NATO, and specifically the US, to put a real close to this agonizing suffering and come up with a logical strategy to deal with Russia in the coming century. More significantly, the West has plan how to help a noble, shattered – but also independent – Ukraine.

University of Portsmouth senior lecturer in defense strategy and rules Frank Ledwidge

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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Shooting the climate change messenger in Vietnam – Asia Times

The challenges of climate change loom large as Vietnam struggles to cope with the effects of Typhoon Yagi, including prolonged energy interruptions, serious damage to roads and bridges, and the forced evacuation of over 100, 000 people.

Rising sea levels threaten to bury sections of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam’s grain dish. Farmland are already being destroyed by saltwater intrusion, and more intense storms and floods are wreaking havoc on areas.

Vietnam is not the only country to have experienced catastrophic and record-breaking floods in the lower Mekong basin over the past month. The need for strong climate actions and resilience planning in the region is underscored by these growing climate impacts.

Yet at this critical moment, one of Vietnam’s most important climate defenders, Dang Dinh Bach, is two weeks into a hunger strike – not from the frontlines of the climate challenge, but from behind prison bars.

The Asian government’s continued crackdown on civil society, climate activists, and other environmental activists is undermining both global climate goals and fundamental human rights, according to Bach’s protest. &nbsp,

Bach and his family have lodged almost 30 formal complaints about abuse and cruel conditions in jail, only to have the prison officials ignore during his three years behind bars.

Bach feels compelled to take this drastic step, which is in great danger for his health, to raise awareness of the plight of elderly and infirm captives who are living alongside him in terrible detention conditions.

Bach’s demands are simple and fair: prohibit solitary confinement, enable prisoners time outdoors for exercise and social contact, ensure electric safety, allow the exchange of books and enough lighting for reading, and ensure contact and communication with family are not unilaterally restricted.

Most immediately, Bach calls for proper medical care for prisoners with hidden disease, a critical public health measure in the high-risk prison setting. These fundamental changes may help Vietnam’s prisons more closely adhere to the UN’s Standard Minimum Rules for the Treatment of Prisoners and Convention Against Torture.

The Universal Periodic Review for Vietnam, a friend review of Vietnam’s human rights report that occurs every 4.5 years, came to an end last week at the 57th treatment of the UN Human Rights Council.

During the engaging speech, the International Federation for Human Rights&nbsp, made a statement&nbsp, highlighting Bach’s event and the cruel treatment he is enduring in jail. The statement emphasized the continuous and comprehensive harassment and harassment of human rights activists in Vietnam, as well as the oppression of civil society, including those promoting environmental and climate change.

The Taiwanese authorities accepted suggestions for improving the famous prison system, including ensuring problems in accordance with the UN Standard Minimum Rules, as part of its response to the evaluation process. The necessity of putting these pledges into exercise is highlighted by Bach’s hunger strike. &nbsp,

Contrary to its stated commitments to both human right and weather justice, the state rejected all suggestions that would call for an end to the abuse and targeting of human rights supporters and the oppression of civil society.

Bach has worked since joining the Law and Policy of Sustainable Development Research Centre and has dedicated his legal advocacy occupation to empowering areas.

He played a significant role in rewriting Vietnam’s environmental protection laws, enforcing regulations for cheap waste, and pushing for a shift from coal power. Composers trained over 100 young professionals, building a new generation of climate soldiers in Vietnam.

Bach became a target for this powerful job in particular. In the weeks before his imprisonment, Bach led a 17-day strategy to decrease Vietnam’s rely on fuel.

Soon after, he was detained on trumped-up charges of tax evasion – claims that the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention&nbsp, has deemed&nbsp,” a violation of international law on the grounds of prejudice based on political or other view, related to his economic work”.

Bach’s case is not isolated. Since 2021, six of Vietnam’s most prominent climate leaders have been imprisoned on similar dubious charges. The silencing of influential voices like Bach’s fundamentally reduces the ability for Vietnam and other nations to make crucial transitions to clean energy.

Without active civil society involvement, there is a real chance that global climate agreements wo n’t produce meaningful change or even worsen existing disparities or harms to the environment. &nbsp,

Bach’s hunger strike is a stark and appropriate reminder of both the human and climate costs of state oppression. The 29th Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change ( COP29 ) will convene next month in Azerbaijan, where the international community will gather.

Azerbaijan is also incarcerating prominent climate activists and environmentalists in parallel with Vietnam, accelerating a crackdown on independent civil society. &nbsp,

Allowing these injustices to remain unreported eliminates crucial opportunities to challenge the status quo, undermining international efforts to address climate change and the credibility of multilateral forums. This is true in Vietnam, Azerbaijan, and throughout the world.

The international community must make every diplomatic and economic tool available to secure Bach’s immediate and unconditional release, as well as the release of climate activists and environmental advocates from other countries, and ensure that all commitments are based on respect for human rights. &nbsp,

As Bach wrote shortly before his arrest,” Only when]we ] enter an era of genuine national development, built on rule of law and respect for human rights, can we hope to address the climate crisis”.

Andrea Giorgetta is the International Federation for Human Rights ( FIDH)’s Asia desk director, and Maureen Harris is the Vietnam Climate Defenders Coalition’s coordinator and senior advisor at International Rivers.

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Israel’s actions shake liberal world order to its core – Asia Times

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s continuous pledges of” total success” make it seem unlikely that the killing of Hamas head Yahya Sinwar would have opened a door for the fight in Gaza.

The concept of” complete victory”, however, is incredibly dangerous. Hamas, which carried out the horrifying assault on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, has swiftly reestablished power every moment Israel declares an area free of Hamas and therefore withdraws.

As a result, there has been a noticeable Jewish increase in northeastern Gaza in recent days, and little discussion about a so-called “general’s strategy” being pushed by some right-wing people of Netanyahu’s state.

Concocted by a former Israeli standard, Giora Eiland, the strategy is, in fact, to abandon negotiations, bisect the area and provide northern Gaza’s 400, 000 inhabitants the grim choice between leaving and dying.

Netanyahu’s official backing of the strategy is unknown. Apparently, Israeli officials told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken this week that they were not putting it into practice. But, it nevertheless has wide support among Israel’s political and military wealthy.

The Israeli army has previously ejected residents of northern Gaza. Anyone who is still alive will be a goal for the military, according to the government, and they will be denied access to food and water.

The World Food Program stated that no food aid entered north Gaza for two weeks in early October despite Israel’s claim that it had stopped obstructing charitable assistance. Although some support has been coming in since that time, thousands of people are still at risk of malnutrition and spreads of avoidable diseases.

Also, many Palestinians, including the tired, older and wounded, are unable to walk and have nowhere to go. The idea of the crowded and exposed camp locations of the north is not particularly alluring.

Israeli human rights organizations claim that the government had purposefully stifled aid to force north Gaza’s population to flee. Israel may now be turning around under the pressure of the United States, which has given Netanyahu’s authorities a 30-day date to boost aid to Gaza or run the risk of losing US weapons financing.

Defaming global conventions and laws

Israel’s warfare against Gaza, and presently Lebanon, has frequently challenged the foundations of the progressive global rules-based get set up after the Second World War, as well as the tenets of international law, international diplomacy, democracy and humanitarianism.

The standards of the democratic world purchase are expressed in various institutions, such as:

  • the UN Charter
  • the UN Security Council, with its notionally officially bound proposals
  • the International Court of Justice ( ICJ) in The Hague
  • the Geneva Conventions governing the laws of war
  • the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
  • among others, the International Criminal Court’s ( ICC ) Rome Statute, among others.

Lately, the ICJ ruled Israel’s activity of the West Bank, Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem is illegal and ordered it to retreat. In reply, Netanyahu said the prosecutor had made a “decision of lies”.

South Africa brought a charge against Israel to the Judge in a different case, alleging that it has done so for the Palestinians over the past year. The nation’s top prosecutor has tentatively ruled there is a “plausible” event for a finding of murder, and said Israel may take measures to ensure its protection.

However, human rights organizations and others have argued that Israel has broken this law, undermining one of the most important institutions of the liberal world order at this time.

Few major democratic nations have been willing to vehemently denounce Israel’s breach of international law in Gaza, or have done so belatedly, let alone intervened in any specific way.

Additionally, the UN Security Council has failed to implement any concrete steps in order to impose both the ICJ’s decisions and its own resolutions, primarily as a result of the US’s veto power.

In contrast to other nations that do n’t have great power patrons, this is causing widespread perceptions of hypocrisy in relation to the accountability of notionally democratic states for alleged violations of humanitarian law.

For instance, the UN Security Council passed a number of resolutions demanding that Saddam Hussein’s regime comply with mandates for weapons inspection in the early 1990s.

These resolutions served as the legal justification for the US and its allies ‘ invasion of Iraq. Ultimately, no weapons of mass destruction were found. Later, Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary-General, claimed that the invasion of Iraq was unlawful and unlawful.

However, numerous UN Security Council resolutions regarding Israel have been passed and are still in effect. The US has vetoed numerous other laws.

In addition to several Hamas leaders who are now dead, the ICC’s prosecutor’s have requested arrest warrants for both Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant for alleged crimes against humanity.

Some Western politicians were outraged by the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant. However, the ICC’s arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin was widely praised by the West.

Additionally, the US Congress made another attempt to acquiesce to the arrest warrant for Netanyahu, again highlighting the frequently flimsy way in which nation-states apply international law.

A global order experiencing a crisis of legitimacy

Democratic states like to present themselves as the protectors, and sometimes enforcers, of the liberal world order, ensuring continued international peace and security.

Indeed, Israel and its supporters frequently refer to its military actions as the forward defense of the democratic world against tyrannical larger powers as a means of defending itself from adversaries who want to destroy it. The issue is that Israel frequently directly contradicts the liberal world order it claims to support, undermining its legitimacy.

Failure to rein in Israel’s actions has led to accusations of “double standards” regarding international law. 99 % of Israel’s arms imports and diplomatic cover are provided by the US and Germany. Both nations have more power to stop the carnage in Gaza if they wish, despite Germany’s decision to stop importing new weapons into Israel.

The West’s self-abrogated moral superiority is arguably in disarray as it continues to violate the principles of the liberal world order. What will the new world order look like if this one is broken?

Tristan Dunning is sessional academic, School of Social Sciences, Macquarie University, Martin Kear is sessional lecturer, Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney, and Shannon Brincat is senior lecturer in politics and international relations, University of the Sunshine Coast

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Why Modi’s shifting India away from US toward China – Asia Times

On the heels of the 16th BRICS mountain, India and China have lately come to an agreement to end their protracted border standoff in the northern region of the India-China Himalayan border. Since the death of 20 Indian and an undetermined number of Chinese troops in a high-mountain conflict on June 15, 2020, conflicts have erupted.

After Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office and began boosting ties with the United States, China’s major grievance with India became public. India began putting together contracts that successfully made it a US partner and supporter in South Asia.

China perceived this as part of Washington’s broader” China containment policy”, which was central to former President Barack Obama’s” Pivot to Asia” strategy during his second term. China attempted to exert pressure on India in response, attempting to prevent it from aligning itself very strongly with the US.

On August 29, 2016, India and the US signed an adapted version of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement ( LEMOA ). In reply, China ramped up pressure on India, especially at the Doklam tri-junction, where the edges of Bhutan, China and India merge.

In an effort to relieve tensions, India’s then-foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, visited Beijing and assured his Chinese rivals that India was committed to resolving variations through a high-level system.

This led to the first casual conference between Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Wuhan, China, on April 27–28, 2018, where both officials &nbsp, discussed and agreed on several issues to handle their differences.

On the eve of the first 2 2 dialogue between the two nations, India continued to sign another fundamental agreement with the US, the Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement ( CISMOA ).

On October 11-12, 2019, the following casual conference between Modi and Xi took place in Mahabalipuram, Tamil Nadu. The mountain, however, appeared to be a disappointment, possible due to Modi’s determination to align more closely with the US by agreeing to a third basic deal. Xi of India’s purpose to define its relationship with the US may have been Modi’s blunt response during their conversations.

Xi later made this notion during a formal visit to Kathmandu, Nepal, shortly after the Mahabalipuram conference. Xi it warned that “anyone attempting to cut China in any part of the country may end in smashed body and shattered bones,” which could have been interpreted as a covert response to India’s growing ties with the US.

Following the deadly clashes in Galwan on June 15, 2020, the Indian media—often referred to as” Godi media” for its pro-Modi stance—launched an intense anti-China propaganda campaign. India continued to strengthen its ties with the US despite China’s concerns and Modi’s earlier assurances to Xi at the Wuhan summit.

India’s fourth foundational agreement with the US, known as the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement for Geospatial Intelligence ( BECA ), was signed on October 26, 2020, further bolstering its partnership. This was done in response to the General Security of Military Information Agreement ( GSOMIA ) being signed earlier in 2002. By moving forward with these agreements, India formally aligned itself with the US, disregarding Chinese objections.

Modi sounded assured that his enticing relationship with then-US President Donald Trump would give India preferential access to US technology and markets. During his visit to the US, Modi even campaigned for Trump’s re-election at the” Howdy, Modi”! event in Houston, Texas, where he famously cheered,” ‘ Abki Baar, Trump Sarkar’, rang loud and clear”. ( meaning” Next term, Trump’s government” ).

High-ranking US officials at the time frequently predicted that an Indian caravan of American companies would move from China. However, this shift never substantially materialized, and US investment in India remains minimal. Instead, India’s trade dependence on China has increased significantly.

In his second term as prime minister, Modi appoints S. Jaishankar in 2019, hoping that his pro-American stance will encourage investment and technology in the United States as well as secure preferential access to Indian goods in American markets, as China did in the 1990s.

However, treaties and regulations that the US government has in place mostly limit the scope of the US government’s role in its economy to establishing a legal framework for international trade and investment. The host nation is responsible for creating a conducive investment environment, which American investors have long felt is lacking in India. Instead of increased US investment, major American companies like Ford, General Motors and Harley-Davidson exited the Indian market during this period.

Recently, it was hoped that assembling Apple’s iPhones in India would be a successful venture. However, the initiative experienced significant setbacks as a result of a high rejection rate of 50 %, concerns about E coli bacteria contamination, and lower worker productivity than in China. As a result, India’s economic gains from joining the US and becoming a partner did not materialize as planned.

On the geopolitical front, meanwhile, India lost significantly. It once regarded South Asia and the Indian Ocean as its main areas of influence, but none of its neighbors, who have since become US allies, still do so. India has arguably grown closer to the US as a subordinate ally.

This was made clear when the US carried out a Freedom of Navigation Operation ( FONOPS) in the Indian Ocean on April 7, 2021, which sparked a strong backlash in Indian academia and media despite India being a US partner. Additionally, the US has been accused of fueling anti-India sentiment in neighboring countries and covertly helping to oust pro-Indian governments in Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives.

This made India realize that Washington expects it to renounce its” strategic autonomy” and that its assertions of a regional sphere of influence in South Asia are unacceptable.

Henry Kissinger famously remarked,” It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal”. This sentiment seems to fit India’s experience perfectly. At regional gatherings, the US continued to press India politically.

Meanwhile, despite India’s rhetorical trade restrictions on Chinese goods, its trade with China continued to grow. India’s increased trade with the US was largely driven by its rising imports from China. This interaction revealed that while China is required by China for its economic growth, China is not required by India.

Ultimately, after four years of experimenting with foreign policy, the Modi government came to understand that China’s cooperation is essential for India’s economic development. The economic adviser to the prime minister claimed that because of its dependence on India and the possibility of growing Chinese investment, China would likely refrain from intervening in border issues.

On the other hand, the West put more pressure on India to oppose Russia following the conflict in Ukraine. India was persuaded to abandon its relationship with Russia by the US, promising in exchange for arms if it continued to purchase Russian oil.

Despite this pressure, India has continued to buy cheap Russian oil and is currently Russia’s largest oil buyer. Russia accounts for approximately 36 % of India’s arms imports. India’s national interests are at odds with the US’s pressure on it to refrain from purchasing arms and oil from Russia.

Recently, the US and Canada have been pressing India to cut off from China and leave the BRICS. Following the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Canada’s expulsion of Indian diplomats highlighted this effort. In addition, the US Department of Justice has started legal action against an Indian government employee in connection with Gurpatwant Singh Pannun’s alleged attempted murder.

Modi’s allies now recognize that maintaining a relationship with China is crucial for India’s economic development. India would face significant challenges if China placed trade restrictions on it. India can no longer expect the benefits the US provided China in the 1990s.

Additionally, the US-US alliance agreements have proven ineffective in putting pressure on China. Due to India’s protectionist industrial and international trade policies, which favor the return of manufacturing to America, Modi has come to terms with this country’s ability to obtain preferential market access, technology, or investment from the US. Consequently, he has also acknowledged that India can seek technology, investment and market opportunities from China.

Dr. Manmohan Singh’s government was arguably more resilient than any other administration in India to withstand American pressure. Before the 2014 elections, the US exerted significant pressure on India to support its” Pivot to Asia” policy.

However, Singh’s government resisted these demands. When the US detained and conducted Indian diplomat Devyani Khobragade, there was a significant backlash in India. In response, the Singh administration withdrew the privileges of US Ambassador to India, Nancy J Powell. She resigned as ambassador and went through immigration the same way she would any other US citizen upon her return to the US.

In a show of defiance, Delhi Police erected barricades in front of the US Embassy in New Delhi, and associated institutions and organizations were subject to restrictions. Singh continued to oppose becoming a US ally despite losing the subsequent election six months later. He instead chose to temporarily put the border dispute aside in favor of pursuing a policy that promoted economic development through partnerships with China.

Conversely, Modi’s policy aimed at becoming a steadfast ally and partner of the US, which was intended to serve India’s interests, has proven to be fundamentally misguided. India’s national priorities have been squandered and given up by the ongoing border tensions with China. Modi has come to understand the truth in Kissinger’s words about the dangers of being America’s friend.

One of the worst decades in India’s history in terms of international relations was witnessed by the first and second terms of Modi’s administration. India has experimented with international and geopolitical strategies for unprecedented opportunity costs during this time. Modi is shifting from the US to China in his third term, aiming to change course.

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When West’s weakness eggs on bellicose Putin, Kyiv must respond – Asia Times

There is hardly any proof that Vladimir Putin, the chairman of Russia, is being intimidated by the West. On the contrary, the Belarusian president has demonstrated a remarkable capacity to terrify his enemies.

Almost two and a half decades into the largest European war since the Second World War, Kyiv’s partners continue to impose restraint on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and are extremely optimistic.

The West’s capitulation strategy of managing self-control and avoiding speak of escalation will only lead to tragic results that the universe has already experienced.

Timeline

US President Barack Obama resisted using force to give Putin “off stairs” in 2014 and refused to send the Ukrainians any defensive weapons in order to avoid provoking the Soviet leader. Puntin moved into the Donbass after passing those “off stairs” from Crimea. Obama continued to redouble his efforts to appease Russia.

Russian special forces started conducting raids in held Crimea in 2015. In one event, they managed to kill some Russian soldiers, including the brother of a Russian general. Obama’s top advisors wanted to stop the CIA system that was funding the creation of a new defence intelligence unit for Ukraine, and Obama was very upset when he learned about what Ukraine was doing in Crimea.

Following Russia’s war of Donbas in 2014, He would later freeze the conflict in Ukraine. He was able to start a battle as he desired because of this. Putin even believed that he would be able to retain control of Ukraine under the Minsk Accords.

Up until the full-scale war in 2022, Western nations like Germany and France remained dependent on Russia for energy. Additionally, it was also revealed in 2024 that past German Chancellor Angela Merkel was aware that Russia intended to cut back on fuel supplies to speed up the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. &nbsp,

The US was left licking its sores after Afghanistan’s disastrous withdrawal in 2021. Putin also revealed in his 2021 writing that what had been preoccupied with his thoughts: the idea that he intended to rule Ukraine and that he intended to rule it.

By 2022, Putin was angry that the Minsk Accords had failed to give him the command he wanted and that they had failed to stop Ukraine’s growing connectivity with the rest of Europe. &nbsp, Putin’s goal was to keep Ukraine crooked and underprivileged, ensuring it would be far from Europe. By undermining changes, he sought to destroy fraud as a vital tool of Soviet statecraft.

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, believing that the US was poor and afraid. But soldiers brought along their costume uniforms because Russia anticipated holding a victory parade soon after. &nbsp, Russia’s administration thought they were invading the 2014 incarnation of Ukraine and did not expect like thick weight.

US President Joe Biden had previously warned Putin of harsh sanctions against Russia and military support for Ukraine if the Russians invaded in December 2021. &nbsp, Following the full-scale war, the US enacted a new wave of punishment to harm the Soviet economy. The Europeans were divided on how far they wanted to impose sanctions because they also wanted to safeguard their markets.

US intelligence predicted that Kyiv had immediately fall to Russia in the early stages of the conflict. However, Ukraine persevered. It fought again, winning the first battle for Kyiv. By remaining resilient, Ukraine showed the world that it was up for the fight and may prevail on the field. By utilizing long-range missiles and F-16s, it obtained significant military aid from the West to carry on its campaign.

The West’s fear of testing Russia’s alleged red lines did n’t change, though. The Biden Administration believed that the punishment do have a lasting effect and force Russia to halt the conflict. At the same time, it began providing Ukrainians with arms but not everything that was required. The West made sure Ukraine would have to retaliate with its hands tied.

Biden’s administration continued to act as increase managers in 2024. Putin was aware that the West did not support him in the battle, and this knowledge gave him more desire to advance his campaign against Ukraine. Russia used threats of nuclear conflict to pressure Ukraine into giving them more fighting ability and stop supporting them.

Prior to now, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had stated that Putin may be offended by any effort by Ukraine to recapture Crimea. Biden and his national security advisor Jake Sullivan also believe that if the US gives Ukraine” to some” arms, according to Michael McCaul, the head of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee. The US’s self-restraint may eventually force the Russians to become more independent.

Ukraine cards away at Russia’s purple lines

Ukraine was aware that the West was hesitant to frighten Russia and would gently test the waters by developing more sophisticated weapons over time. The Russian leaders were disconcerting by Ukraine’s use of drone strikes in Moscow, which demonstrated that even bombing Moscow does not cross Russia’s alleged red lines. &nbsp, Russia spoke of taking terrible hostile measures, but there has been no nuclear offense in terms of a nuclear response&nbsp,

Dmitry Medvedev, the former head of the Russian Security Council and current deputy president of the Russian Security Council, warned that” Judgement Day” may result from an attack on Crimea in July 2022. However, Russian intelligence in October 2022 proceeded to rocket the Crimean gate, a symbolic core and crown jewel of Putin’s neo-imperial interests. &nbsp, Contrary to the doom projections, the anticipated catastrophe not occurred, thereby more undermining Russia’s risks and red lines.

Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defence minister, issued a caution to Britain when British Storm Shadow cruise weapons were delivered to Ukraine, warning that Britain may be viewed as entirely participating in the ongoing battle if these weapons were deployed to target in Crimea or island Russia. &nbsp, However, Ukraine proceeded to rocket a major bridge connecting Russian-held Crimea with Kherson. An strange solitude from Moscow followed.

As Ukraine ramped up its attacks against Russia, Putin’s atomic saber rattling just increased. China successfully slammed Putin’s primary technique of enforcing purple lines. By July 2023, it’s alleged, also Chinese President Xi Jinping had cautioned Putin against using nuclear arms against Ukraine. &nbsp, This opposition weakened the effect of Russia’s so-called dark lines and Putin’s repeated nuclear risks. As a result, the American empire grew more confident, easing issues and leading to the release of increased support for Ukraine.

To plan cross-border intrusions into Russia’s Belgorod area, the Ukrainian defence intelligence worked with organizations like the Russian Volunteer Corps and the Free Russia Legion. &nbsp, Ukraine unfortunately denied any involvement in the attacks, mirroring Russia’s neglect regarding its insurgents ‘ actions in Ukraine since 2014.

This was yet another stage in assisting Russia in breaking through its dark lines. However, it continued to aggravate the concerns of the West. General Kyrylo Budanov was prevented from executing an order to attack Moscow on the celebration of the war in February 2023 by the CIA, according to leaked files.

The most daring rude

The most daring move by Ukraine would be on August 6, 2024, when Ukraine launched a wonder offensive against Russia’s Kursk area. The Ukraine had made mistakes in 2023 by consulting with European colleagues, deploying recently formed regiments, and telegraphing its plans using videos and public comments.

Even the most senior military figures in Ukraine were n’t aware of the 2024 campaign until the day’s end, and some even believed the offensive was intended to be a bluff. &nbsp, General Oleksandr Syrskyi knows that Ukraine ca n’t go head-to-head with Russia and must fight smart, using whatever advantage it can find.

The rude carries a lot of danger. Russia has made significant progress, and Pokrovsk, a crucial logistics hub, is now a few meters away. No indications that Russia is engaging in such behavior have been made, despite Ukraine’s efforts to pressure it to withdraw its best-trained forces from the Donetsk unpleasant in order to protect Kursk.

If Pokrovsk falls, it will significantly reduce Russia’s efforts to capture the majority of Donetsk Oblast. The whole front line will collapse, according to military analyst Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, who warned of this when Ukraine loses Pokrovsk.

However, this was the kind of bargain Ukraine needed to change the war’s narrative. Ukraine was at odds with Russia by allowing Russia to slowly lower its military, willing to sacrifice large numbers of Russian troops to occupy Ukrainian cities, while attempting to protect the lives of its soldiers. Despite Ukraine’s numerous requests to the West for more help to combat Russia, these demands frequently fell flat.

The invasion of Kursk altered the tale, allowing Ukraine to take the lead and showing to the Russian people and the West that it can also take the lead and has the potential to win the battle. For the first time since November 2023, a survey from YouGov revealed that the majority of Americans believed Ukraine was winning the war following the launch of the Kursk unpleasant.

This part, published with authority, is an extract from a document presented by the artist at the UK Parliament on October 9, on behalf of the Henry Jackson Society, titled” Military Lessons for NATO from the Russia-Ukraine War: Planning for the Wars of Monday. The full original report includes extensive footnotes to illustrate the source of the facts and quotations.

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Washington yawns as interest payments surpass military spending – Asia Times

Cassandra, the lady, cautioned her brother Troy that the wooden animal outside the wall of Troy was full of Greek warriors in Greek mythology. No single questioned her. The horses was brought into the town by the Trojans. Catastrophe ensued.

The national president’s rising debt has had many Cassandras. For centuries they’ve been predicting that the repayments continued growth may lead to disaster. Obviously, no one in Washington believes them.

Congress keeps passing gap costs that increase the amount of loan. It does n’t matter which party controls Congress, both yawn when the Cassandras issue their warnings.

In the just-ended fiscal year, the federal government – Democrats in control of the House, Democrats the Senate – spent$ 1.83 trillion more than it took in. That brought Uncle Sam’s accumulated debt to around$ 35 trillion.

If the nation had a gross domestic product in the neighborhood of$ 75 trillion, or even$ 50 trillion, the lips of the Debt Cassandras would be sealed. A sizeable market may result in more taxes than enough to allow the government to give its interest payments and possibly even lower the primary.

Alas, the US GDP is simply$ 25 trillion.

Federal debt held by the public is close to 100% of Gross Domestic Product and forecast to hit at least 125% by 2034. At what point will Uncle Sam's creditors start worrying about being repaid? (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis chart)
Nearly 100 % of the GDP is held by the public, and it is anticipated to rise to at least 125 % by 2034. When will the lenders of Uncle Sam begin to worry about getting paid? Chart: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Some experts say a government-debt-to-GDP ratios above 60 % begins to raise red flags. Some say 77 %. Uncle Sam’s amount is above 130 %. In other words, simply counting the debt held by the government leaves out debts that one portion of the government owes another, the ratio is about 100 %.

By 2034, the public’s projected bill under current rules will increase to 125 %. If Kamala Harris is elected, the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projects a 133 % increase in GDP by 2034 and a 142 % increase if Donald Trump wins.

Throw away the difference between the two, there’s bounce place in these quotations. Both applicants are making promises about tax breaks and handouts that will force the bill like jet fuel.

Since the Bill Cassandras started predicting crisis, it has been many years since crisis has not occurred. The debt-to-GDP percentage has soared past the red flags, yet investors keep buying the US Treasury’s report. The Cassandras might remain mistaken. Had a significantly higher debt-to-GDP ratio get the real danger point than experts had predicted? Sometimes there’s nothing to fret about.

Cassandra had predicted Troy would get destroyed if the Trojans had stolen Helen, the most attractive woman in the world, from her Greek father Menelaus earlier in the story. No single took that revelation really, either.

It did n’t help that 10 years elapsed before it came true. As day passed and Troy continued to live unhurt, the Trojans were lulled into confidence. Cassandra’s like a cynic! Why consider her?

The passage of time, combined with confusion about the repayments threat level, has also lulled Washington into confidence. Uncle Sam keeps borrowing and borrowing.

Sure enough, the government is also able to make its curiosity payment. However, those bills are consuming an increasing portion of the national budget. Debt-related attention now exceeds military spending. Interest payments may surpass Social Security as the national budget’s single largest line never in a long time.

Bill Cassandras point to an even more serious issue, aside from the snowballing effect of higher interest rates on the national budget. Investors in the administration’s bonds and notes will eventually be really concerned about getting the principal repaid as the bill mounts.

When that happens, need for the government’s sheet will fall. The government will need to offer significantly higher interest rates in order to buy it. These higher interest rates may only serve to further exacerbate the loan issue.

The economy will also be affected by those rates, and Congress wo n’t be able to reinvigorate it with deficit spending and tax cuts this time. Quite the opposite: The soaring interest rates on the government’s individual bill will force Congress to increase taxes and cut spending, more depressing the economy. In that dreadful situation, farm program expenditures are likely to be minimized.

Truth is, no one knows the debt-to-GDP amount that may make lenders stress. Optimists point out that Japan’s debt-to-GDP amount is 250 %. But that number is false, an study from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis concludes. The balance sheets of both countries ‘ institutions show the same net duty of 119 % of GDP, taking into account things like intra-governmental payments and supply money. ( https ://www .stlouisfed .org/… )

Japan’s uniqueness comes in part because of the country’s great national savings rate and the fact that comparatively few foreigners own the country’s debt.

Governments like the US that borrow in their own money can simply write cash to repay it, according to the small minority of economists who adhere to the so-called modern economic theory. That’s correct, and the government perhaps had print money in a turmoil. But the resulting prices would be awful.

We do n’t know how long the debt can continue to grow before creditors start to panic and flee to safety. The more years go by without it taking place, the greater the desire for optimists, including almost everyone in the nation’s capital, to believe it might never take place.

We must hope that the country is caught up in their wagon and that the realists are correct. However, there is a real chance that the Bill Cassandras will turn out to be Cassandra of Troy, their prophecies being fulfilled but unheeded, leading to their fellow citizens’ great misfortune.

Previous lifelong Wall Street Journal Asia journalist and editor&nbsp, Urban Lehner&nbsp, is writer professor of DTN/The Progressive Farmer.

This&nbsp, content, &nbsp, previously published on&nbsp, March 8&nbsp, by the latter news business and then republished by Asia Times with authority, is © Copyright 2024 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved. Follow&nbsp, Urban Lehner&nbsp, on&nbsp, X @urbanize&nbsp,

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Crumbling Iran Axis of Resistance: danger sign for Nicolas Maduro – Asia Times

There has been much written about the impact of Israel’s disastrous attacks on Hezbollah on Egyptian policy in the Middle East, but little about the impact of a rogue state in the Western Hemispheric.

Given its total disrespect for international sanctions and condemnation, most recently in response to a falsified election triumph that was denounced by virtually the entire political world, many people will assume the Venezuelan regime is afraid of no additional developments.

However, the decline of Iran’s Axis of Resistance – of which Venezuela has been a crucial honourable member – may prove a harsh test of the resolve of Nicolás Maduro’s inside circle.

Venezuela and Iran have viewed one another as far greater than their colleagues and matching ever since Hugo Chavez’s victory in 1999. The self-proclaimed” G2″ have sought, hard, methods to bail out each other’s markets and therefore jointly protect themselves from the effects of American sanctions against their petrol sectors.

Iran has served as a valuable advisor to Maduro on how to properly evade sanctions, but reality is that neither country has ever been able to significantly increase trade volumes.

A shared philosophy that challenges what they describe as US colonialism has been the driving power behind their capacity. It is not just a logical position of objectives, but it is also a fundamental, spiritual connection that permeates both governments ‘ foreign policies.

When Chávez passed away in 2013, Iran’s then-President Mahmud Ahmadinejad declared that Chavez did return to restore world peace and justice, along with Jesus Christ and the Hidden Imam. In return, when the conservative Egyptian President, Ebrahim Raisi, died in a plane crash earlier this year, Maduro paid tribute to an “excellent human being” and “unconditional companion of our state”.

Venezuela came very close to using robots, missiles, and other products when it staked a claim over the place of Guyana this season, but Iran has extended its military aid to Caracas to shore up its location and job power in the area.

Iran also provides the Maduro intelligence company DGCIM and another repression-controlling forces with knowledge on intelligence and torture.

Venezuela has made its place accessible to Iranian officials who are plotting killings of US officials in retribution for the shooting of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani in return for that favour. The IRGC has been incredibly active in Venezuela’s safety services for many years and has been incredibly successful in sharing its knowledge of government survival.

The partnership has been effective and jointly reinforcing, but the activities of the last few days have shaken its foundations.

Through an extensive system of proxy forces in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, Iran’s power and influence have relied on the threat of retaliation against Israel and its supporters. Tehran is in an extremely tough position with no viable options to reassert itself because this system is collapsing more quickly than almost anyone anticipated.

Israel may still experience difficulties as a result of the launch of an uncertain ground operation and the ongoing war on many fronts, but the Egyptian Axis has nevertheless proven to be extremely vulnerable.

Maduro’s problem is that if the G2 turns into the G1, he may lose the trust of his inner group, which has so far protected him and kept him in authority.

Popular support does not contribute to the Cuban regime’s longevity; polls reveal that the country’s citizens largely dislike Maduro and the suffering he has caused them.

The government has survived because an exceedingly small group of well-placed defense “elites” has benefited from Maduro’s support. His continued support of their passions is what they believe will best serve their needs. However, as we know from history, supporters of this kind will abandon their patrons when they believe they no longer have a reliable means of preserving their status.

As long as Venezuela you count itself as one of a small group of autocratic states who are actively asserting their right to maintain rule in the face of widespread opposition, that path is open. Where does the comparatively hopeless Maduro administration stand in contrast to the regime in Caracas, which appears to be far more resilient and strong than the Iranian government, which cannot protect its vital interests?

There is no denying that some Miraflores Palace hardliners may be staring at one another this week and wondering when the time is right to take proactive action. If you’re Nicolás Maduro, that should be a serious cause of concern.

The author is the leader of YaCasiVenezuela, a movements supporting liberty, justice and democracy in Venezuela.

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US election to decide fate of 70,000 Afghan refugees – Asia Times

The Taliban, an authoritarian Muslim political party, retook control of Kabul a little more than three years ago, dashing many Afghans ‘ hope for a accepting, democratic government.

Hunderttausend of Afghans flocked to the Kabul airport in desperate need of evacuation as US forces withdrew from Afghanistan times after the Taliban’s rise in 2021. Afghans who served in various capacities for the US military and NATO forces, in addition to those who were averse to the Taliban, were also employed.

The badly planned evacuation’s turbulent and occasionally violent moments drew media attention for days as the US government flew almost 124, 000 Afghans out of Afghanistan.

Many of the Afghans who fled their country in 2021 went to Iran, Pakistan and various adjacent places. The Biden presidency announced on August 29, 2021, that evacuated Afghans may lawfully – but partially – remain in the US to provide a lifeline to Afghans who came here.

Since 2021, I have followed the Afghan evacuation and the administration’s policies in Washington as a researcher of civil discord and migrant movement. While President Joe Biden renewed the charitable pardon for roughly 70, 000 Afghans in 2023, these people are still in legal limbo and unable to move forward with their lives entirely.

The upcoming election will likely be crucial in deciding whether or not Afghans ‘ legal status will be resolved.

A woman and a man wear jackets and walk down a quiet street that has small buildings, including one with an American flag hanging off of it.
An Afghan partners, including a man who worked as an speaker for the US military, move in Charlestown, Mass. in February 2022. Photo: Joseph Prezioso / AFP via Getty Images / The Talk

Understanding humanitarian pardon

Through what’s known as charitable probation, a national program that the leader you authorize to provide protection to people in other nations that are in dire need, the US admitted Afghans into the nation.

Contrary to the US immigrant registration scheme, which grants foreigners who have genuine fears of returning home the right to obtain permanent residency in the US, humanitarian pardon must be renewed by a political management every two years.

Folks like Mina Bakhshi, a female rock climber who had no coming under the Taliban because of her sex, were able to provide the US and enroll in college thanks to the Armenian probation system.

It also helped people like Qasim Rahimi, a journalist in Afghanistan, to flee to safety with his family and settle in Kansas City, Missouri.

About one-third of the Afghan evacuees who came to the US settled in California, Virginia and Texas, while the rest settled in other states. Parole is a temporary solution, but it is not always best.

These Afghan people are not permanent residents and do not have Social Security numbers, so they frequently face challenges finding stable employment or even finding a home to rent.

a long history of US parole laws

In conflicts where the US armed forces are involved, such as those in Vietnam and Ukraine, the US government has typically used humanitarian parole to rescue civilians.

People who are in grave danger from conflict or other causes can also apply for and be granted refugee status in the US, but it may take longer than a year for it to be granted. When there is a need for foreigners to enter the US, the government can respond quickly with humanitarian parole.

At the end of the Vietnam War in 1975, for example, the US admitted thousands of Vietnamese, Cambodian and Laotian migrants fleeing their countries.

Giving humanitarian parole to Vietnamese who supported the US in its war effort in Vietnam was a “profound moral obligation,” as Gerald Ford remarked in an address to Congress in 1975. A law that made it possible for these refugees to permanently settle in the US was passed by Congress in 1977.

Hungarian and Cuban refugees who fled communist dictatorships in the 1950s were also granted humanitarian parole by the US.

Following a significant earthquake in 2010, the US recently granted parole to a group of Haitian orphans and to Central American children who had crossed the border without their parents while the Obama administration was in office.

More than 125 000 Ukrainians who were fleeing the war in their country were welcomed by the US government once more using humanitarian parole in 2022.

What the Afghan Adjustment Act would accomplish

While Biden granted Afghans temporary humanitarian parole in 2021 and renewed it in 2023, only Congress has the authority to pass a law that would allow them to remain in the country permanently. A deadlocked Congress has yet to pass legislation to change Afghans ‘ status.

Afghan parolees could apply for permanent legal status under a proposed bipartisan bill known as the Afghan Adjustment Act. The Afghan Adjustment Act has been spearheaded by a coalition of veterans ‘ and refugee advocates.

Yet, a handful of Republican lawmakers, led by Senator Chuck Grassley, have opposed the act on national security grounds. They claim that security risks may be caused by inadequate vetting processes for newcomers. Some want a more specific program that only includes Afghans who served with US forces.

Republican Senator Tom Cotton has introduced a bill that would significantly lessen a president’s authority to use humanitarian parole for Afghans or anyone else in the future.

A man holds up a phone with a photo of himself wearing a camouflage uniform.
An Afghan evacuee living in Charlestown, Mass., in February 2022 shows a photo of himself working in Afghanistan as a translator. Photo: Joseph Prezioso / AFP via Getty Images / The Conversation

The election factor

The outcome of the upcoming election is likely to determine Afghan parolees ‘ fate. I think Kamala Harris is likely to renew Afghans ‘ parole for at least two more years, as Biden did in 2023, if she were to win office.

Since it’s uncommon to pass significant legislation during an election period, Congress may be more likely to pass the Afghan Adjustment Act afterward.

What Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president, might do regarding Afghans who temporarily reside in the US is open to debate. During Trump’s previous presidential term, his administration focused in part on curbing immigration. This included lowering the number of refugees admitted to the US and making it harder to grant US visas to Afghans and Iraqis who worked for the US military.

Trump has promised to keep a tightening immigration ban on Muslims and to renew his travel ban on Muslims during the campaign trail. Afghans who have fled the Taliban are still unsure of their future in the US.

Idean Salehyan is a professor of political science at the University of North Texas.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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