Modi’s developed nation dream has no basis in reality – Asia Times

By 2047, the centennial of its independence from the British Raj, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is artistically working to make his nation a designed nation. By predicting that the nation will have the world’s largest economy by the late 20th century, think tank, education, and internet have chimed in.

These conjectures, however, fight a lot with American surface realities. An American political debate revealed these contradictions on February 3, 2025. Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the opposition, painted a depressing picture of India’s proper gaps in its drive to transform the high-tech industry.

His speech, delivered during a discussion on the Movement of Thanks for the President’s annual handle to the Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament in India, exposed widespread contradictions in the American race to compete with China and the West, a race Gandhi claimed is not even on the monitor.

Given that most politicians, bureaucrats, academics, and popular journalists in India frequently believe in the status of the country as a “global head,” or” Vishwa Guru,” they are a profound realization, and perhaps Gandhi’s is the first time this has happened.

In five crucial places, in my opinion, India is significantly behind China in specific. First, India is laggard behind China in terms of its slow alternative energy transition.

China and Western countries are also in the lead in electric vehicles, clean energy infrastructure, thermal, wind turbines, and hydrogen technology, and are also making substantial advances in developed nuclear technologies like coupled reactors, Helium-3 fusion technology, and liquid salt nuclear reactors. In comparison, India appears to be a passive in all of these industries.

The transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles powered by high-storage lithium batteries is a proper market to take the lead role in the world economy in the future, not just a culture change imperative.

Transportation, security, and agriculture are key areas where low-cost, high-efficiency energy-tapping innovations may be required in the future.

However, India lacks a leading position in any of the cutting-edge tech fields that are currently transforming global supply chains and security technologies, such as high-storage lithium batteries, robotics and optics. As a provider of technologies, capital goods, and natural development financing, India’s aspirations run the risk of remaining ambitious despite its continued aspirations.

Next, India’s inability to upgrade its strategic and defense sectors. The Russia-Ukraine issue has demonstrated how inexpensive, efficient aircraft technology powered by electric motors and batteries can surpass traditional, expensive tanks and armored vehicles.

China’s advancements in electronics security systems, including those made by AI-driven drones and energy-efficient surveillance networks, contrast starkly with India’s reliance on archaic platforms and military and strategic technologies, which are more expensive and less effective.

Green technologies and digital warfare capabilities, which India utterly lacks expense and indigenous innovation, may shape the future of high-tech electric warfare. This places China far back in the mix.

Third, in the era of artificial intelligence, India has a terrible large data deficit. Big data production metrics for manufacturing marketing and consumption patterns for business development to address consumers ‘ tastes, preferences, and choices, as the customer is ruler after all, determine AI’s revolutionary possible.

China dominates world manufacturing data on the one hand because it is the world’s stock, and on the other hand, the United States controls intake statistics through big tech like Amazon, Google, X, and Meta. India, in contrast, neither has generation nor use data. India does not possess any of the software platforms it owns.

While India’s manufacturing industry is still a jerrybuilt of Taiwanese components, including export to third countries, especially the US, is still a jerrybuilt. On both the demand side ( consumption ) and the supply side ( production ), India’s digital economy is subject to foreign algorithms.

India is unable to compete in robotics, autonomous systems, and intelligent logistics management as a result of this dual dependency, which stifles domestic AI advancement. India will continue to be a participant in the AI revolution without regaining control over major data. The continued AI conflict between the US and China highlights India’s function as a witness in this field as well.

Third, as a result of its crumbling educational program, India is lagging behind China in high-tech production. While China and the West have changed higher education to give a higher priority to STEM research and innovation, India’s institutions still suffer from underfunding, administrative gravity, and a mismatch between programs and the needs of the high-tech business.

Issues with inclusion and poor quality are also present in public school education. The end result is a lack of skilled workers who can lead advanced manufacturing, research and development, or reverse engineering.

India’s failure to provide start-ups with access to capital adds to this. The backbone of innovation in electronics, high-tech manufacturing, and AI is small and medium enterprises ( SMEs ), which are skewed toward large conglomerates and large businesses in India’s banking system.

Without cultivating a culture of risk-taking and entrepreneurial spirit, India is unable to create the ecosystem necessary for technological reversals. The success of China’s DeepSeek demonstrates how a low-cost start-up can make a significant breakthrough by creating a supportive and creative environment.

In spite of Modi’s” Make in India” rhetoric, the nation still heavily relies on China’s imports of crucial components, including precision optics and semiconductors. In the event of geopolitical tensions with China, Indian factories are essentially assembly lines for Chinese-made parts, leaving the country vulnerable to supply chain disruptions.

It depicts India’s manufacturing capacity at a standstill. To compete with China, India must meet the demand and urgency to develop high-speed lithium batteries, 5G or 6G technology, AI-integrated manufacturing systems, and electric motors.

These technologies are essential for everything from satellite networks to electric vehicles, but India lacks the domestic capacity to develop them as quickly as it will be required to do so in the future.

India cannot close without deliberate, state-backed strategies to encourage innovation and increase production, thanks to China’s decade-long investments in these fields. None of these crucial sectors are currently India’s dominant.

Another sombering ground fact: India’s struggle to become a superpower is a result of its slow economic and technological development. The transition to a high-tech manufacturing economy and, as a result, a strategic influencer on the global stage are not isolated sub-sets but fundamental pillars of India’s rise to a high-tech manufacturing economy and, as a result, a result of the evolution of big data sovereignty, big data sovereignty, STEM education reform, and high-tech manufacturing.

Modi’s vision of a developed India by 2047 depends on closing these gaps, but current policies prioritize rhetoric over substance. The danger is that if India doesn’t develop these five sectors, it could end up being a perpetual” country of the future” —a phrase used by Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew unless it takes action to address its structural flaws with the utmost urgency.

In the interim, the gap between Modi’s goals and India’s actual capabilities will remain a gap.

Bhim Bhurtel is a member of the X network, @BhimBhurtel.

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Japan’s Astroscale transforms into defense contractor – Asia Times

With the award of a commitment to develop a “responsive place program show dish” for Japan’s Ministry of Defense, Astroscale, the Chinese area venture company, has actually become a defense contractor.

The three-year job, which will be announced on February 27, will begin with the creation and testing of a “proto-flight” model, which will then be launched to exhibit space domain awareness, surveillance, intelligence, and functional capabilities.

As Astroscale Japan expands into the security and defense business,” We have established a second wall of our procedures,” according to managing director Eddie Kato.” As a result, we have established a considerable step.”

Prior to just, Astroscale has been generally known for its function on space dust tracking and removal. When it went public on the Tokyo Stock Exchange in June 2024, it did so in terms of both how it promoted itself and how the Japanese media perceived it.

However, it should be obvious that a high degree of ability to see and follow other objects in orbit and space is required for the identification, interception, and removal of space debris ( including satellites, defunct or otherwise ).

Officially known as space domain awareness ( or space situational awareness ), this ability to track satellites, rockets, and space debris requires telescopes, optical sensors, and radars. It serves both for military and civilian purposes and has always been a dual-use technology.

The definition of space situational awareness is” the necessary current and predictive knowledge of the space environment and the operational environment on which space operations depend,” according to NASA. It “provides knowledge and understanding of threats posed to space systems by adversaries and the environment [italics added ] and is essential in developing and employing space asset protection measures.

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency ( JAXA ) selected Astroscale as the private sector partner for Phase II of its Commercial Removal of Debris Demonstration program in April 2024.

Astroscale was in charge of the ADRAS-J close proximity observation satellite’s preliminary design, development of navigation sensors, and other tasks during Phase I of the project. Phase II moves on to detailed design, ground testing, assembly, and mission operations.

The launch of a full-fledged debris removal service, ADRAS-J ( Active Debris Removal by Astroscale-Japan ), was described as” the world’s first attempt to safely approach and characterize an existing piece of large debris through Rendezvous and Proximity Operations ( RPO )”.

Following the announcement on February 11 that Astroscale’s UK subsidiary had successfully completed the Mid-Term Review of the UK Active Debris Removal mission’s current development phase with the UK Space Agency, Japan’s Ministry of Defense awarded the company. &nbsp,

Additionally, Astroscale UK has been chosen as the lead contractor for the European Space Agency’s Capture Bay for Active Debris Removal for In-Orbit Demonstration mission.

For work on In-situ Space Situational Awareness ( ISSA ), Astroscale UK announced a multiyear contract with leading UK defense contractor BAE Systems on January 14. Specific details were kept secret. In other words, spy satellites that spy on other satellites refer to the ability of one spacecraft to monitor another.

According to Astroscale,” We must understand them before we can safely remove defunct satellites and other debris from orbit. Includes the location, close approach, and rendezvous with an object, followed by the collection of in-space data to better understand the movement characteristics of the object.

For the US Space Force,” Space Domain Awareness & Combat Power” is focused on delivering cyber, ground, and space-based systems that quickly identify, warn, characterize, attribute, and predict threats to national, allied, and commercial space systems, as well as providing National Security deterrence capabilities in a space conflict.

International executive line-up

In Japan, Astroscale was established in 2018. It has offices in Tokyo, but it has grown to be a multi-national corporation with branches in the United States, France, and Israel. The top management of the business is composed of individuals who are connected to these countries ‘ space and defense establishments and have related industries:

Nobu Okada, the CEO of Astroscale, is a fellow member of the Royal Aeronautical Society of the UK and a member of the Subcommittee on Space Space Industry at the Japanese government’s cabinet office. Prior to that, he worked as an IT consultant and entrepreneur in Singapore, India, China, and Japan.

Chris Blackerby, the CEO, was formerly the senior space policy official at the US Embassy in Tokyo and the attache for Asia for NASA.

At OneWeb, Chief Technology Officer Mike Lindsay oversaw mission design, systems engineering, and spacecraft performance while also serving as the company’s director of spectrum architecture. He also held positions at Google and NASA.

Prior to joining Orbital Sciences ( which was later acquired by Northrop Grumman ), Chief Engineer Gene Fujii worked on commercial low earth and geostationary satellites and launch vehicles. He previously worked as a space technology executive at ORBCOMM and as a senior systems engineer at Orbital Sciences ( which was later acquired by Northrop Grumman ).

Nick Shave, managing director of Astroscale UK, was formerly vice president of strategic programs at satellite telecommunications company Inmarsat and chairman of UKspace, the trade association of the UK space industry.

Ron Lopez, president and managing director of Astroscale US, began his career as an intelligence officer with the US Air Force Space Command’s responsibility for developing space situational awareness capabilities. He later joined Honeywell Aerospace and headed the defense &amp, space Asia Pacific sales team.

Before joining Astroscale Japan as president and managing director, Eddie Kato established a space and telecommunications consulting firm in Washington, D.C. Prior to that, he served as a senior executive at Leonardo, an Italian defense contractor and the French aerospace and defense company Thales Alenia Space. Additionally, he held positions in the space divisions of Mitsubishi Electric, GE, and Lockheed Martin.

The French armed forces, the Centre NationalD’Etudes Spatiales, the UK Ministry of Defence, and the European Space Agency have worked with the managing director of Astroscale France, Philippe Blatt, who has previously held positions as a systems engineer and executive at Thales and Thales Alenia.

Ofir Azriel, the managing director of Astroscale Israel, began his career as a satellite engineer for the Israeli Air Force and later as a systems engineer for Israel Aerospace Industries. He then headed the on-orbit service company Effective Space Solutions and, four years later, handled the company’s acquisition by Astroscale, where he first served as engineering vice president.

This executive line-up suggests that Astroscale is more than just a company that cleans up the space environment.

Awareness of the space domain

Since 2021, Astroscale has been working with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Japan’s top defense contractor and rocket manufacturer, to develop on-orbit technology and services.

The Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry chose it in the same year to conduct research and development on robotic and robotic arms and hands that can be attached to spacecraft to perform complex and complicated tasks like maintenance and operations, as well as in orbit and on the moon.

The first space domain mission unit of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces to operate the Space Situational Awareness ( SSA ) system with the main objective of monitoring things like space debris and suspicious satellites, which could pose a threat to Japanese satellites, was established in Japan in 2020.

The squadron was later renamed the Space Operations Group of the Japanese Air Self-Defense Force. It “entertained the full operation of a system a system in 2023″ and” took the position and orbit of space objects” in its entirety.

It collaborates with JAXA and other organizations to “monitor activities around the clock and warns satellite operators of the possibility of approaching objects.”

A consortium led by the UK Ministry of Defense’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory ( DST ) and SJE Space was chosen to explore space-based space domain awareness mission concepts for launch in the 2030s. &nbsp,

Air Self-Defense Force Major General Takahiro Kubota told the audience that improving space domain awareness is one of Japan’s top strategic priorities at a Sasakawa Peace Foundation public lecture and panel discussion on” Enhancing Japan’s Defense Capabilities and Challenges Beyond 2027″ that took place in Tokyo on February 27.

In line with this, the Japanese Air Force will be renamed the Japan Air and Space Self-Defense Force in fiscal year 2027.

In light of all of this, Astroscale’s demonstration satellite for the responsive space system can be seen as yet another step in the direction of the development of hunter-killer satellites that are integrated into Japan’s and its allies ‘ space defense systems.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

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Ukraine debacle signals the death of Atlanticism – Asia Times

Europe was shocked last week by the common spat between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Europe finds itself trapped in a non-man’s area as a result of Trump’s call for an end to the Ukrainian conflict and US policy change. It stifled China’s economy, cut ties with Russia, and failed to anticipate Trump’s traditional geopolitical change.

After EU officials publicly acknowledged that the Minsk discussions were used to pass the time to Ukraine’s defense, making matters worse, Europe disqualified itself as a trustworthy opponent. Europe managed to seize the world’s attention in a short period of time.

ignoring the past

The US has no lasting friends, according to Henry Kissinger, and merely interests. A prime example of this is the Ukrainen War.

About 30 years ago, the majority of European&nbsp countries, which were influenced by a liberal flood in the US, elected a number of Atlanticist-minded social leaders who supported US liberal laws.

Bush, Clinton, and Obama were US presidents who supported NATO enlargement. The spread of democracy and freedom, which was used as the justification, obscured the geopolitical and economic justifications that can be traced back to the colonial era.

European geographer Halford Mackinder’s The Heartland Theory argued that a divided European continent was the foundation of Western hegemony in the early 20th century.

Mackinder compared the conflict between emerging maritime powers ( mostly Western Europeans ) and land-based powers ( Russia, China, India ) as a whole. The West’s sea hegemony was challenged by the development of railway.

From the Heartland Theory by Halford Mackinder. Military shipping changed as a result of Roadworks.

British political strategist Zbigniew Brzezinski identified Ukraine as the key player in the Asian continent conflict in the 1980s.

Since the 1990s, NATO’s growth was spearheaded by Brzezinski’s supporters and supported by subsequent US services.

The reason was that the sea powers of the West could maintain global hegemony by keeping the Asian continent divided. The Atlanticists were likewise concerned by China’s Belt &amp, Road Initiative ( BRI), which spans the European continent.

China’s Belt & Road Initiative may eventually incorporate the continent of Asia.

The Ukraine conflict, in the eyes of the Atlantic, succeeded in removing Europe from the European continent. The plan included lowering the size of the Nord Stream network, which connects Russia and Europe.

The Atlanticists were unable to have anticipated that Trump would fundamentally alter the corporate chess board.

The proverb” Following the money” is still applicable. The US is dealing with a growing and untenable national bill, a persistent budget deficit, and ever-increasing trade deficits. The dollar’s status as the world’s supply dollar is contingent on its continued support of these quad deficits.

As the” toll booth” of the global currency system, the US makes trillions of dollars. To address its budgetary shortfalls, the US government has currently taken out a 36 trillion US loan. The defence budget is receiving more interest payments than the federal loan, and they are rising. The US is heading for default or inflation on the latest path.

Trump wants to make sure the buck remains the world’s reserve currency and restore the country’s fiscal health. It explains both why he threatens sanctions against nations that try to de-dollarize and why his merciless cost-cutting is so effective.

Strong Negation

Russia was not persuaded by the West that NATO’s expansion of its borders was unaffected by its threat. They viewed NATO enlargement as an practice of democracy and freedom, indifferent about the potential Russian response. Pragmatism was defeated by philosophy.

However, the descent may become painful. Western media earlier in the conflict portrayed Russia as weak and corrupt, with a failing business and a corrupt government. The West relied on three arches that fell one after another, one who was exceedingly confident or generally naive:

– Sanctions to slam or decline the Russian business and stoke a revolt against Putin failed

– Russia’s attempt to isolate itself from China and India failed in the face of world isolation.

– Russians were defeated strategicically by using more sophisticated NATO arms.

The West did not bother to come up with a backup plan because it was convinced that Russia may become brought to its knees. The West changed the text when it became apparent that Russia was not to be defeated. Russia was no longer a poor position with an impotent defense; it was a serious risk to Europe.

Russia’s economy is comparable to that of Spain, it accounts for less than one-third of Europe’s population, and it accounts for a quarter of the country’s$ 84 billion defense budget ( compared to$ 326 billion in Europe ). However, Europeans are then advised that if they don’t support Ukraine, they might have to confront the Russians at their own edges.

The Europeans are doubling down on their corporate foolishness despite being completely unaware that the end goal has arrived and incapable of making peace ideas. They are discussing creating a security industry that doesn’t rely on the US, and discussing a social Western defense fund.

Experts predict that Europe will need ten times to become fully militarized, and more and more countries in Europe are reporting frustration with Ukraine’s policies. Under 30 % of EU officials ‘ approval ratings are reported.

Europe’s failure is inherent and cannot be ignored. A Chinese political analyst recently remarked on the issue:” Europe consists of smaller countries and countries that don’t know they are small ( in the framework of politics )”. &nbsp,

If the US, Russia, and China talk about a post architecture, such as Yalta II, Europe might find itself clung to the bleachers. Europe lacks the strategic leverage that the” Big Three” can offer when the chips are down.

Ancient descent

The EU elite’s greatest concern is to control public opinion as they descend from their intellectual battles.

The American media has been the propaganda arm of the Atlanticists, some of whom are sponsored by USAID, since 2014, when Russia regained power of Crimea. They constantly demonized Putin and Russia. People who spoke out in support of Zelensky or Ukraine was portrayed as a Russian property.

The relentless flow of anti-Russian misinformation was very successful. In a recent poll conducted in Britain, over 80 % of respondents were in favor of boots on the ground in Ukraine. Never head that Wembley Stadium would accommodate the entire American troops.

The intellectual environment has been altered by the Atlanticist disease that has invaded Europe over the past three decades. The legendary appropriate calls for harmony now, just like the AfD in Germany, while the mighty left, including the” Greens,” cheers on the continuation of the conflict. This traditional shift in roles is hardly ever discussed in Europe.

The anti-Vietnam War demonstrations in the early 1970s and the pupil uprisings in 1968 give rise to Europe’s Green Parties. The pacifist and environmentalist movement came to form the Dutch Green Party, but the” Green” key of Amsterdam displayed a burned-out Russian tank as a war medal in the city center of Amsterdam.

Europe would be wise to consider the ideological shift that caused the Ukraine horror when peace comes back.

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US inflation up even before Trump’s tariffs take hold – Asia Times

The results of final November’s presidential election was largely determined by the cost of living crisis, which saw prices in the US reach a four-decade large of 9.1 % in 2022.

Exit polls in ten of the key battleground states revealed that 32 % of voters thought the business was the most crucial vote issue. A staggering 81 % of voters in that demographic voted for Donald Trump.

Trump had spent the majority of his campaign promises to lower high rates on day one, saying that his administration would do so. The most recent data indicate that US prices has increased since he took office, reaching an all-time deep of 3 % in January.

This surge is largely attributable to the market that Trump inherited. However, some experts have expressed concern that his reported financial strategy, which includes trade tariffs, significant tax cuts, and lower interest rates, may only increase inflation.

Although taxes have become more common in recent years, tax cuts and interest rate changes are well-known plans. Institutions use these to stabilize trade agreements or as retribution for tariffs that other nations have imposed. They typically raise taxes for governments while even raising foreign imports ‘ prices.

The Trump administration has imposed 10 % trade tariffs on a wide range of consumer imports from China and has set tariffs of 25 % on all steel and aluminum imports. The US has indicated its intention to introduce tariffs on imports from the European Union, despite the temporary pauses of proposed tariffs of 25 % on imports from Mexico and Canada.

The sign of a General Motors car assembly facility in Oshawa, Ontario.
A General Motors car assembly plant in Ontario, Canada, where economists believe the proposed taxes will have a disastrous impact. Instagram / JHVEPhoto

Will there be prices as a result of taxes?

Trump’s supporters insist that the levies didn’t hurt American consumers and businesses. The White House’s senior counsel for trade and manufacturing, Peter Navarro, stated to the New York Times on February 18 that” It’s not going to be terrible for America.” It will be a wonderful thing.

Navarro claims that foreign producers will lower the pre-tariff cost that US importers are charged because they are concerned about losing market share.

However, financial theory suggests that taxes in general do increase rates. According to Peter Lavelle, a business analyst at the UK’s Institute for Fiscal Studies, data from Trump’s first term, when tariffs were imposed on solar panels, washing machines, steel, and aluminum, shows these costs were “almost wholly passed on to private consumers,” adding to inflation.

The tariffs are intended to increase US regional manufacturing’s competitiveness on the global level, which is a major goal. This might result in the return of manufacturing work to the US. Manufacturing employment decreased by 35 % in the US, from its peak of 19.6 million in 1979 to 12.8 million in 2020.

But, during Trump’s first word, there was no evidence of taxes returning manufacturing jobs to the US. Between 2017 and 2021, manufacturing employment remained stable.

Otherwise, there is a chance that tariffs will set off a trade war in which nations will impose their own taxes. For instance, Canadian officials have made it abundantly clear that they will impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, which are” selected to hit particularly red and purple]Trump-supporting ] states.

Game principle is used to analyze these cases by economists. A trade conflict manifests itself as what economics-speak refers to as a “non-cooperating Nash equilibrium,” in which all parties involved have a bad financial outcome.

This view is supported by some new modeling of the effects Trump’s suggested tariffs on Canada and Mexico. In all three economy, price retaliation is likely to increase prices prices even further than otherwise.

By increasing the price of some US-produced products, a business war may also lower profit margins for US exporting producers. This may result in lower actual income as a result of lower employment and salary. Higher rates and this result are unlikely to appeal to US voters.

It’s difficult to imagine how taxes will be anything other than expansionary given the evidence from Trump’s first name. Trump’s proposed$ 5-11 trillion tax breaks, along with the lower interest rates he has demanded, may also increase inflation.

The risk of taxes is being used merely as a communicating approach, according to Ana Swanson, a trade and foreign scholar at the New York Times. But, Swanson sees confusion as the biggest factor in Trump’s tax plan, like many other academics.

She stated in a audio on February 4 that she would like to know if the industry would be on the lookout for tariffs. Would she choose to invest in a new stock or employ new employees? Uncertainty causes less expense and less progress.

Honestly, Trump was never going to lower prices for US users. That would be negative, and economists generally apprehensive about recession even more than inflation. Delayed investing is a result of falling prices, which can be disastrous for economic development.

The US consumer’s best chance is that prices rise more slowly, keeping inflation at 2 %, which is what is best for the country. However, the direction of travel all points to higher value increases given the recent increase in inflation, as well as Trump’s method of tariffs, income cuts, and lower interest rates.

Elections in some advanced economies have recently revealed that voters do not like prices and will punish governments that are in power during these times of inflation.

More than 70 % of the incumbent governments have been voted out of office since inflation reached its highest level in some sophisticated economies in 2022. Trump needs to keep this in mind as he works to restore America’s sector.

ConorO’Kane is Bournemouth University’s mature economics professor.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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US bets on F/A-XX as China air power races ahead – Asia Times

China is developing next-generation cunning fighters in the Pacific to challenge US heat dominance as the US invests in its F/A-X fighter system to maintain air superiority.

John Phelan, the nomination for US President Donald Trump’s position as secretary of the navy, made an important point in his testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, according to Air & Space Forces Magazine.

Phelan pointed out that the aircraft’s range and payload are significantly greater than those of its predecessors, and that it is intended to maintain maritime air dominance in disputed environments. By utilizing shared technologies like independence, vision systems, and communication architectures, the US Navy and the US Air Force collaborate to improve interoperability.

Phelan’s remarks come as the reputation of the NGAD fighter applications for both services is in decline. The US Navy has delayed its programme while the US Air Force has halted its type due to cost problems.

Phelan also addressed the US Air Force and US Navy’s collaboration on Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA ) to improve operational effectiveness through manned and unmanned platforms.

The future carrier-based warrior, the F/A-XX, is intended to replace the older F/A-18 Hornet while even enhancing the capabilities of the F-35B and F-35C soldiers.

The sixth-generation aviation will feature cutting-edge technologies like helicopter swarms, compact design, device learning, artificial intelligence, virtual and augmented reality, and the choice for guarded or autonomous operations.

The US Navy’s NGAD system, which is different from the US Air Force’s edition of the software, includes the plane. It will serve as a “quarterback” for manned and unmanned plane activities from aircraft carriers and integrates these with attritable assets to promote combined dynamic and non-kinetic engagements at strategically important ranges.

Phelan places an emphasis on the F/A-XX in the midst of unwavering uncertainty about the NGAD’s potential. Discussions on other ways to air superiority have sprung up as a result of the NGAD program’s pause, which has been caused by costs, modern challenges, and China’s evolving airpower threats.

The US is currently looking into a combination of old-style fighters, creative combat drones, and a possible revival of the light fighter idea. Skepticism has risen as a result of the NGAD’s proposed US$ 250 million-per-unit price tag, which has led some officers to argue for smaller, software-driven gentle fighters based on a smaller-than-a-flight fighter.

Although this tactic offers savings on costs and quick resilience, light combatants may not have the survivability and deep-strike skills required for high-intensity conflicts, particularly those involving China in a possible Taiwan war. This change could also weaken the US power structure because it places affordability before technological supremacy.

Other than those, the single fifth-generation US warrior in production, the F-35, may be in jeopardy. The Trump administration may consider canceling the F-35 fighter program due to its exorbitant fees and perceived failure in contemporary battle, according to Brandon Weichert in an article published last month for The National Interest ( TNI).

Weichert points out that the F-35, which was intended to replace aging aircraft and improve interoperability among US military branches, has experienced frequent production delays and budget shortfalls, with prices exceeding US$ 1 trillion. He mentions that Elon Musk, among others, supports the claim that the F-35 is a “jack-of-all-trades, master of none” and that he is pushing for a more significant shift toward device war.

Weichert claims that the F-35 sales to Europe have been stoked by Musk’s comments about the jet’s alleged failure have fueled speculation about the program’s future. He claims that the program has been further hampered by the F-35’s high maintenance costs and the Trump administration’s ( DOD ) focus on budget efficiency.

Weichert points out that there have been major delays and only a quarter of the desired F-35 ship has been produced.

At a time when US airpower is at its lowest in the Pacific, these issues are becoming clear. Air &amp, Space Forces Magazine reported last month that the US Air Force’s aircraft readiness dropped to its lowest levels in decades, with a mission-capable rate of 67.15 %, down from 69.92 % in 2023.

This decline has had the least impact on both traditional and modern ships since statistics tracking began. The F-35A’s rate increased slightly to 51.5 %, while the F-22’s readiness rate decreased significantly to 40.19 %, reflecting maintenance challenges.

Bombers performed poorly, falling below 50 % mission readiness for all three types (B-1B, B-2, and B-52 ). Despite considerable assets, the C-5M Galaxy’s charge remained lower, at 48.6 %. The KC-46 declined to 61.05 %, and the EC-130H improved to 41.97 %.

Despite these issues, there are reviews of NGAD development. For example, Defense News reported last month that the plan had accomplished a major breakthrough by carrying out thorough design testimonials for two proposed dynamic engines, the XA102 by GE Aerospace and the XA103 by Pratt &amp, Whitney.

By adjusting to the ideal thrust configuration for various circumstances, these engines, which are a part of the Next Generation Adaptive Propulsion ( NGAP ) initiative, aim to increase range and thermal management capabilities.

Both businesses are now working together to create design demonstration engines using cutting-edge electronic methods for style and systems engineering. The US has increased each contract’s maximum prototype phase value to$ 3.5 billion, reflecting the importance of upholding competition and innovation.

China appears to be making steady progress as the US struggles to develop next-generation airpower. For example, China’s most recent release of the J-36 and J-50 fighters marked a substantial improvement in its military aircraft capabilities, immediately challenging US air supremacy in the Pacific.

The J-36, designed by Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, has three engines, one of which emphasizes cunning and high-speed journey.

Advanced cunning technology and a twin-engine settings are included in the J-50, which is manufactured by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation. Both aircraft are a reflection of China’s desire to have the world’s atmosphere power through innovative designs and technical integration.

Additionally, according to Air &amp and Space Forces Magazine in March 2024, China may already be on record to have the largest air force in the world.

The combined People’s Liberation Army Air Force ( PLAAF ) and People’s Liberation Army Navy ( PLAN ) Aviation is the third-largest air force in the world, with 3, 150 aircraft, 2, 400 of which are combat aircraft, according to the US DOD’s 2024 China Military Power report.

According to Air &amp, Space Forces Magazine, 60-70 planes are donated to the US’s allies and partners while the US produces around 135 F-35s each year. According to the review, China produces an estimated 100 J-20 aircraft per year, compared to the F-22, whose creation was halted in 2011 to only 187 unique products.

Additionally, the report mentions that China produces 40 J-10 low-end soldiers and 100 J-16 multi-role fighters periodically. It further states that China’s production was soon exceed US fighter production if it keeps up the schedule and reduces its reliance on Russian jet engines.

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Europe’s dangerous delusion of defense without the US – Asia Times

US President Donald Trump unceremoniously showed Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky the door following an acrimonious exchange at the White House on Friday. Trump’s angry words for Zelensky were televised for all of America to hear, and no doubt shocked many in the viewing audience.

“You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III. You’re gambling with World War III,” Trump said. “You’re not winning. You’re not winning this. But you’re either going to make a deal or we’re out.”

Just as shocked as the American TV audience about Trump’s blunt “make a deal or you’re on your own message” were the US’s European allies and rushed to pledge their support for Zelensky and condemn Trump –moves and words they may soon live to regret.

European Union chiefs Ursula von der Leyen and Antonio Costa jointly tweeted: “Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone, dear President@ZelenskyyUa.” 

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said: “Ukraine, Spain stands with you”; his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk wrote: “Dear [Zelensky], dear Ukrainian friends, you are not alone.”

Incoming German chancellor Friedrich Merz addressed a tweet directly to “Dear Volodymyr” and vowed to stand with Ukraine “in good and in testing times.”

Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz and Keir Starmer chimed in with similar profundities.

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s chief diplomat and former prime minister of Estonia, outgunned them all: “Ukraine is Europe! We stand by Ukraine. We will step up our support to Ukraine so that they can continue to fight back the aggressor. Today it became clear that the free world needs a new leader. It’s up to us, Europeans, to take this challenge.”

Most of them were scheduled to meet the Ukrainian leader on March 2 in London for a summit on Ukraine organized by Prime Minister Starmer. Zelensky was set to be honorably hosted by King Charles III at his Sandringham country retreat.

As a welcome to London on Saturday, Zelensky was handed a 2.6 billion pound check (a loan), a down payment on the UK’s “standing with you as long as it takes to protect the integrity of your country.”

In a Nikkei Asia opinion piece, Trump’s peace initiative is portrayed as “forcing Kyiv to concede its occupied lands and deny its ambition to join NATO” and “closer to appeasement than clever dealmaking.”

In the same op-ed, Trump is compared to “British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain [who] proclaimed that he had brought ‘peace for our time.’ But this ultimately led to the Nazis marching into Czechoslovakia in March 1939, and the outbreak of World War II. Similarly, Richard Nixon’s 1973 ‘peace with honor’ deal in Vietnam resulted in the fall of Saigon just two years later.”

Presumably, in this British-inspired charade (the Nikkei owns and channels the Financial Times), Zelensky is assigned the role of Churchill.

The only dissenting European voices were those of Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban who wrote: “Strong men make peace, weak men make war. Today President Donald Trump stood bravely for peace.… Thank you, Mr. President!

And of a man who may be worrying that he’ll lose his job, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who told the BBC he had called Zelensky, said: “I said: I think you have to find a way, dear Volodymyr, to restore your relationship with Donald Trump and the American administration. That is important going forward.”

Which European stance and view will prevail? That is dictated by reality, not the will and delusional thinking of Eurocrats such as von der Leyen and Kallas or the leaders of the UK, France and Germany, just to pick the top three.

Trump’s basic peace plan, which specifies no NATO membership for Ukraine, territorial concessions and no NATO Article 5-type US security guarantees but relies on the repair of US–Russia relations and prospective new security structures for Europe, will either be implemented or there will be continued war ending in Russian victory or, should European NATO forces intervene directly, World War III as Trump has warned.

Europe today has no military forces capable of successfully confronting a full-scale Russian onslaught without reliance on the US military and the US nuclear umbrella, nor will it likely ever have such capabilities even with a sustained crash rearmament program.

Not even in the 1980s, when this writer served in the (West) German military, with its strength at its peak of 500,000 soldiers and 7,000 tanks, was the defense of Western Europe without the US ever so much as contemplated. Today, it’s a dangerous fantasy.

Germany’s authoritative Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) released detailed studies proving the point in September 2024 (“Fit for war in decades: Europe’s and Germany’s slow rearmament vis-à-vis Russia”) and February 2025 (“Defending Europe without the US: First estimates of what is needed”).

The summary of the 2024 study states:

Germany did not meaningfully increase procurement in the one and a half years after February 2022, and only accelerated it in late 2023. Given Germany’s massive disarmament in the last decades and the current procurement speed, we find that for some key weapon systems, Germany will not attain 2004 levels of armament for about 100 years. When taking into account arms commitments to Ukraine, some German capacities are even falling.

For the record, Germany currently has 180,000 active personnel (61,000 in the army, 27,000 air force, 16,000 navy, remainder support staff); 350 main battle tanks compared with 2,398 in 2004; 120 howitzers compared to 978 in 2004; 218 combat aircraft compared to 423 in 2004. It is not capable at this time to field a single combat ready division of 20,000.

Other European NATO forces similarly lack manpower and equipment, with no early change in sight. That includes the UK. The UK Ministry of Defence last released detailed figures on the number of trained personnel in combat-ready roles in July 2024. British Army: 18,398. Royal Air Force: 21,915.

Meanwhile, the Russian military is expected to reach its target strength of 1.5 million by mid-2025, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The only NATO member other than the US in the same general class is Turkey, with 511,000 under arms.

The Kiel Institute estimates that Europe would need an additional 300,000 troops and an increase of about $250 billion in defense spending to even begin to redress this sorry state of military affairs. The spending looks doable even in the near term; the manpower increase is not.

And the critically important role the US plays in NATO, planning, coordination and commanding large-scale multinational forces, will not be replaceable for many years. Nor will US real-time tactical intelligence and targeting capabilities. 

It is hard to believe that even the most belligerent European leaders, grandiloquently speaking of “strategic independence” (such as Germany’s Merz) and of going it alone are not aware of these facts.

And the same Merz, so eager to launch German Taurus missiles against Russia, will likely think twice about such bravery if the US is not around to back him up.

Europe can dream about strategic autonomy after peace is made in Ukraine. But it has no military capability to defy or undermine the Trump peace plan. In reality, there is no other.

Uwe von Parpart is editor-in-chief of Asia Times.

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Zelensky miscalculates disastrously in picking fight with Trump – Asia Times

Friday’s (February 28) spectacle at the Oval Office will forever be remembered as one of the most epic failures that any foreign leader has ever made.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky delusionally thought that he could disrespect US Vice President JD Vance on live television in front of President Donald Trump without any consequences while being an official guest of the US.

Readers can watch the full recording here, which shows Zelensky aggressively reacting to Vance’s benign comment about prioritizing diplomacy with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the previous Biden administration’s failed tough talk.

Everything then spiraled out of control after Zelensky accused Vance of speaking loudly to him, which prompted Trump to contradict Zelensky and tell him to keep quiet since he had already talked too much, all while brutally berating him in a scene that had never been witnessed before in America’s highest office.

Trump and Vance also accused Zelensky of being ungrateful for American aid after he lied about Ukraine being left alone since the start of the conflict and reminded him of how disrespectfully he was behaving.

Trump wrapped everything up by warning that the US might completely end its support for Ukraine if Zelensky doesn’t agree to make peace with Putin before unprecedentedly kicking Zelensky out of the White House.

To add insult to injury, White House staffers then ate the lunch that was already prepared for Zelensky and his team with the expectation that they would sign the minerals deal that was the reason behind his visit. Trump also posted on social media about how Zelensky disrespected the US.

For as clear-cut as the sequence of events was for any objective observer who watched the roughly 10-minute footage, namely that Zelensky provoked his two hosts by disrespecting Vance, the Financial Times’ Ben Hall had a totally different view.

According to him, “it is not hard to imagine that Vance and Trump were spoiling for a fight with the Ukrainian leader…Arguably, the stage was set for an ambush” when Zelensky arrived in the Oval Office.

While it’s true that Zelensky and Trump were just embroiled in a vicious spat prior to the Ukrainian leader’s arrival to the US, his American counterpart invited him to visit because he wanted to patch up their problems by signing the minerals deal and then discuss a path to peace with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump treated Zelensky benevolently prior to his trying to disrespect Vance, as did Vance, who didn’t say anything personal or insulting before Zelensky suddenly decided to harangue him.

It seems like Zelensky was triggered after realizing that the Trump administration wants to coerce him into peace with Putin and won’t be manipulated into prolonging, let alone escalating, the conflict after signing their minerals deal like he somehow expected that they would.

For that reason, he then decided to sabotage the talks by creating a spectacle, possibly hoping that it would justify abruptly refusing to sign the aforesaid deal if they were going to use it afterwards to pressure him into peace.

Zelensky isn’t apparently being advised by anyone with even basic insight into how Trump operates, otherwise he would have known that public pressure on Trump always backfires.

Zelensky would also never have thought that the US needs Ukraine for anything more than Ukraine needs the US. Trump is already considering a more important minerals deal with Putin so he doesn’t even need Ukraine’s resources whereas Ukraine has no alternative to American arms and is thus fully dependent on it.

This observation brings the analysis to the penultimate point about how Trump ominously left unanswered a question about whether he’ll suspend military aid to Ukraine, as he threatened at the end of his and Vance’s heated exchange with Zelensky.

If that’s what he ends up doing, and it’s too early to say for sure, then it would represent the worst-case scenario for the Europeans since Russia could then carry on as far westward as it wants if the front lines collapse without fear of the US intervening.

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth already confirmed a few weeks ago that the US won’t extend Article 5 guarantees to any NATO country’s troops in Ukraine. So the UK, France, and whoever else might have considered dispatching troops there in that event will now be forced to think twice.

In other words, Russia could hypothetically carry on as far as Ukraine’s border with NATO if it desires, though Putin might stop far short of that if a breakthrough coerces Kiev into complying with his demands.

What happened at the Oval Office on Friday was truly a black swan in the sense that nobody could have expected that Zelensky would ruin his relations with Trump right at the moment when they were supposed to sign a minerals deal that would then pave the way to peace.

Trump even exclaimed during the height of their drama how the US was giving Ukraine cards to play for helping it end the conflict on much better terms than if he didn’t get diplomatically involved.

The “New Détente” that Trump wants to broker with Putin, which readers can learn more about from the five analyses hyperlinked in the middle of this one here, is largely predicated on forcing Zelensky into peace.

Zelensky’s last-minute decision to sabotage the peace process by creating a global spectacle caught Trump off guard, but he wasn’t going to let Zelensky disrespect Vance with impunity, let alone after Zelensky’s disrespect extended into disrespect for the US.

That’s not to say that the “New Detente” is now necessarily derailed since Trump and Putin still have the will to enter into a series of mutual compromises aimed at establishing strategic ties but just that it might now proceed independently of Ukraine.

Accordingly, it was actually Zelensky who ruined everything, not Trump and Vance. They could never have expected that he’d burn Ukraine’s bridges with the US knowing that it’s impossible for Ukraine to replace US military aid. Perhaps Zelensky didn’t realize what he was getting into until it was too late, by which time he let his emotions get the best of him, but who knows.

In any case, it’s very difficult to imagine there being any rapprochement between Zelensky and Trump or Ukraine and the US in general without Zelensky leaving office or fully capitulating to Trump’s demands.

If he defiantly perpetuates the conflict and the US cuts him off, then Russia will pretty much be given free rein by Washington to do whatever it wants with Ukraine, though it’s unknown how the EU would react. Everything will become clearer by next week, though, once it’s known exactly what Zelensky plans to do next.

This article was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber here.

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Dissecting the China ‘lab leak’ Covid origin theory – Asia Times

In a January 24 interview with the far-right-wing outlet Breitbart News, newly appointed CIA director John Ratcliffe stated that assessing intelligence on a potential Wuhan lab leak was a top priority.

The following day, The New York Times reported that the agency had shifted from an undecided stance to favoring a possible Chinese lab leak, albeit with a “low confidence” rating – the lowest on a three-tier scale (low, medium, high).

Within the US intelligence community, the CIA has thus joined the FBI and the Department of Energy (DOE) in supporting the possibility of a laboratory-related incident.

According to a 2023 report, among the US agencies that have investigated the pandemic’s origins, one remains undecided, while four others, along with the National Intelligence Council, lean toward a natural origin of the Covid-19 pandemic.

What does ‘laboratory origin’ really mean?

According to The New York Times, the CIA’s revised assessment is based not on new evidence, but on a reinterpretation of existing data. However, neither the reasoning behind its reassessment nor the supporting data have been made public – making it impossible to evaluate the accuracy and reliability of the agency’s conclusions.

Adding to the complexity, “laboratory origin” is an umbrella term encompassing multiple, sometimes contradictory, scenarios.

Confirming CNN’s 2023 report on the Department of Energy’s revised stance, The New York Times noted that the DOE identifies the Wuhan Center for Disease Control (WCDC) as the outbreak’s likely source, while the FBI attributes it to a lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). At the time of writing, the CIA had not disclosed which scenario it deems most plausible.

Though WCDC is not an actual research laboratory, some of its employees were participating in wildlife sampling programs at the time of the outbreak. In late 2019, WCDC moved to a location close to the Huanan market. A theory implicating the WCDC confirms evidence that the earliest detected cases are epidemiologically and geographically linked to the market, and suggests that the virus emerged naturally.

In contrast, WIV is a research institute operating across two campuses, one situated 12 kilometers from the market as the crow flies and the other, which houses the P4 laboratory, 27 kilometers away.

Scenarios implicating WIV generally posit that “gain-of-function” coronavirus experiments – intended to enhance a virus’s transmissibility or virulence – were conducted under biosecurity conditions deemed to be unsafe, at level 2. The presence in Wuhan of a biosafety level 4 laboratory is therefore irrelevant to this scenario.

SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing Covid-19, has a single origin. If it did escape from a laboratory, it could not have simultaneously leaked from two separate labs conducting different types of research. Two mutually incompatible hypotheses are not two points in favor of a lab origin – and this is not even considering alternative lab-leak scenarios positing that the virus was engineered in a US lab and then sent to Wuhan.

Beyond determining where the virus originated, the nature of the virus is another source of divergence among lab-accident scenarios. Was it a naturally-occurring virus that accidentally infected a scientist during fieldwork? A virus cultured in a laboratory, passaged on cells or animals? Or even a directly genetically modified virus?

Here again, SARS-CoV-2 cannot be at the same time a natural virus and the result of lab experiments. Accumulating arguments built on conflicting premises does not strengthen the case for a research-related incident.

No evidence of a laboratory-related incident

The lab-origin hypothesis would carry much more weight if definitive proof emerged that, by late December 2019, a Wuhan laboratory possessed a progenitor of SARS-CoV-2.

Hazard suits hang at the National Bio-safety Laboratory, Wuhan. Photo: Wuhan Institute of Virology

In the case of the 2007 foot-and-mouth disease outbreak in southern England, for example, virus sequencing quickly led investigators to nearby high-security laboratories conducting research on a similar virus. The inquiry ultimately traced the outbreak to faulty effluent pipes at the facilities.

In contrast, to date, no virus has been identified that could have been used in a laboratory as a direct progenitor of SARS-CoV-2.

If the virus did emerge from a research-related incident, two possibilities remain: It was either an uncharacterized natural virus, unknown even to the researchers who worked on it, or it was a previously characterized virus that had not been disclosed – either because it was recently identified or because it was part of a classified program – and that is still being kept under wraps by scientists in Wuhan.

This is in particular the case if SARS-CoV-2 was the result of genetic engineering.

A lab-modified virus implies that its genetic sequence was known to some researchers before the pandemic. However, by 2021, the US intelligence community had determined that researchers at WIV had no prior knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 before the outbreak.

While absence of evidence is not evidence of absence, concrete data have yet to emerge supporting the hypothesis of laboratory modification.

Theories about a potential lab origin have also fueled speculation about the involvement of accomplices outside of Wuhan, in China or abroad. A US Senate committee report put forward a China-only scenario, citing the suspicious 2020 death of a Beijing-based researcher working on a new vaccine.

Other theories center on the US-based NGO EcoHealth Alliance, which collaborated with WIV to collect and study natural coronaviruses before its funding was abruptly cut off at President Donald Trump’s request in Spring 2020.

The organization’s president has since been banned from federal funding for five years, facing criticism over oversight issues, including delayed reporting of an experiment on a chimeric coronavirus and failure to provide WIV’s laboratory notebooks.

Among the most high-profile figures implicated in US-based complicity theories is Anthony Fauci, the former White House Covid advisor and head of the agency that funded the collaboration between EcoHealth Alliance and WIV.

But allegations against Fauci go far beyond him approving research grants. One narrative claims that Fauci deliberately suppressed discussions about the pandemic’s origin, pressuring researchers to alter their conclusions in exchange for funding. No evidence has surfaced to support this claim.

Anticipating potential retribution from his successor and the Republican Party, former President Joe Biden preemptively granted Fauci a presidential pardon. However, newly elected President Donald Trump has since revoked Fauci’s personal security detail, and Republican Senator Rand Paul has vowed to continue efforts to prosecute him.

The natural-origin theory faces hurdles as well

The multiplicity of lab-origin scenarios is caused by the absence of data supporting this type of origin. As a result, anything is possible.

Data related to the origin of the Covid-19 exist, however. So far, available data suggest the virus may have originated naturally from animals sold at the Huanan Market.

Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, China. Photo: Weibo

Multiple types of data, from various Chinese sources, support this hypothesis: The residences of the cases with earliest onset dates are located in the vicinity of the Huanan Market, whether the cases were epidemiologically linked to the market or not.

The two early SARS-CoV-2 lineages were detected at the market; and data from the Chinese Center for Disease Control (CCDC), that we analyzed, indicated that raccoon dogs and civets – species implicated in earlier SARS outbreaks – were present in the market’s southwest corner, where traces of SARS-CoV-2 were frequently detected.

However, by the time the CCDC team arrived at the Huanan market for sample collection, just hours after its closure, raccoon dogs and civets were no longer present. As a result, no direct traces of infection could be detected, and the definitive evidence some are hoping for may never be uncovered.

But even if such proof were to emerge, it would not likely settle the debate. Additional confirmation would be needed to show that the animals were not secondarily infected by humans in the market. Moreover, skeptics could argue that the animals themselves came from a laboratory. In other words, the controversy is far from over.

For now, with the new Trump administration focused on finding a culprit, the origin of the Covid-19 pandemic will remain in the spotlight. Senator Rand Paul, now chair of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee (HSGAC), has made the issue his hobbyhorse.

The declassification of information from the US intelligence community may help assess the merits of competing conclusions regarding the origin of the pandemic. In parallel, however, the new administration may unfairly target researchers, potentially resulting in more innocent victims.

Florence Débarre is CNRS research director and a researcher in evolutionary biology, Sorbonne University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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India and America: a certain ambivalence  – Asia Times

America reaches us everywhere: in our villages by the mountains, in our towns by the sea, in our cities by the desert. America shapes and distorts, regenerates and ruins. America is hope and America is anxiety.  

My first memorable encounter with American power was a story my father told me in the mid-1980s in our village in the mountains of Kashmir. Our few acres of rice fields would have a rich harvest in the autumn. After school, I would carry samovars of tea for the workers harvesting and threshing the grain. My father, an energetic civil servant in his mid-thirties, would join us after work.  

We would drink tea, and he would tell me stories. One of those afternoons, my father spoke of the bleak years of his adolescence in the 1960s, when hunger stalked not just our little villages, not just India and Pakistan but all of Asia. He was born in the early fifties as Asia and Africa were winning back their freedom from European empires, whose extractive colonialism had squeezed the colonies of almost everything valuable.  

Father spoke of an American man. A scientist who traveled to India in the early 1960s, worked with Indian scientists, and introduced high-yielding crop varieties that multiplied agricultural yields and significantly helped reduce global hunger.  

“It was the Green Revolution,” father said. “His name is Norman Borlaug.” 

“Norman Borlaug.” I repeated. 

Norman Borlaug, who was born on a farm in Iowa, who eventually won a Nobel Peace Prize in 1970 for his singular contribution to significantly reducing hunger in Asia and Latin America, defined the best of America for me. 

I never forgot his name. 


India has grappled with American power—through its rise and rise and its relative decline, through its benevolence and its cruelty—with a range of responses rooted in experiences of colonialism and its own visions of economic and political power: from postcolonial righteous indignation to reluctant supplication to defiant Soviet embrace to today’s amoral nationalism.  

On an October evening in 1949, General Dwight D Eisenhower, who served as the president of Columbia University after leading the Allied forces to victory in World War II, conferred the degree of Doctor of Laws upon Jawaharlal Nehru, the first prime minister of India, at the Low Memorial Library.

The Cold War was on: George Kennan’s argument for “containment of Russian expansive tendencies” had shaped American policy; the Truman Doctrine and the Marshall Plan were already in place; the Berlin blockade was ongoing; and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was five months old. 

Americans wanted India to “get on the democratic side immediately,” as Henry F. Grady, the first American ambassador to India, put it to Prime Minister Nehru in December 1947. Nehru had read widely about America—from Upton Sinclair to Henry David Thoreau to Reinhold Niebuhr—and admired former President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s support for Indian independence.

But the Indian leader saw America representing “a reactionary policy” in world affairs and was certain that India would not align with a particular nation or group of nations. 

With Eisenhower and Arthur Hays Sulzberger, publisher of The New York Times, in his audience, Nehru roasted American Cold War doctrines. “The very process of marshalling of the world into two hostile camps precipitates the conflict which it sought to avoid,” he told his hosts. His fundamental intellectual concerns were radically different.

He spoke of three grave dangers to global peace and progress: colonialism, white supremacy, and hunger. European colonial powers were still delaying decolonization in parts of Asia and most of Africa; American reluctance to push their European allies disappointed him. “It is clear that all vestiges of imperialism and colonialism will have to disappear.” 

The America Nehru spoke to was still Jim Crow America and the civil rights movement was still years away. “Secondly, there is the problem of race relations,” Nehru told his hosts. Indian nationalist leaders and Black civil rights leaders in America—Lala Lajpat Rai, Gandhi, Nehru, Marcus Garvey, W E B Du Bois—had been in conversation for years and saw white supremacy as a defining factor in British colonialism in India and in Jim Crow in America.

“The West has too often despised the Asian and the African and still, in many places, denies them not only equality of rights but even common humanity and kindliness,” Nehru said.

Legacies of war, colonialism, and political turmoil had exacerbated hunger across Asia and Africa. India was facing a shortage of wheat and rice and ensuring food security was an urgent concern for Nehru. “The third reason for war and revolution is misery and want,” he told his hosts. “If we offer no remedy, then other cries and slogans make an appeal to the minds of the people.” 

The East Coast intellectuals were impressed, the Truman administration was irritated, and Nehru was convinced India should “align somewhat” with the United States but not be subservient. The essence of India’s view of America is distilled in a note Nehru wrote to his colleagues who were finalizing a commercial treaty with the United States.

“The safest policy,” he wrote, “appears to be friendly to America, to give them fair terms, to invite their help on such terms, and at the same time not to tie ourselves up too much with their world or their economic policy.” 

That stance of being friendly and open to all the American help one needs while refusing formal military or economic alliances and maintaining autonomy to pursue relationships with other powers to strengthen India’s national interests has survived with minor variations in form and tone over the decades. 


If foreign policy is the face a nation wears to the world, as Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. wrote, American power in the Cold War and Indian responses to that colossal destructive and regenerative force were a series of scowls and smiles, glares and grins, wails and shrugs. Cycles of annoyance and accommodation, hostility and warmth defined the relations between India and the United States during the Cold War. 

The first significant illustration of Nehru’s policy of neutrality was the Korean War between 1950 and 1953. Fearful of the war expanding in Asia but also aware of the opportunity to act as “a counterbalancing force,” in a bipolar world by uniting the Third World and the Commonwealth countries, Nehru’s India cooperated, bargained, and battled with the United States throughout the war at the United Nations. India’s hectic diplomacy and mediation between the Americans, the Russians, and the Chinese to find a compromise to end the war were thwarted at various stages by the colliding powers.

Eventually, after Stalin’s death in March 1953, as the warring parties were ready for a ceasefire, a vigorous Indian effort united the Third World and Commonwealth countries behind a UN resolution, forced reluctant Americans to support a compromise on the repatriation of 20,000 prisoners of war, and paved the path to the signing of the Korean armistice. The historian Richard Barnes writes that the experience led Nehru to place “his allegiance squarely” with the Third World. 

After the war, the patrician voice of Jawaharlal Nehru called for Asian and African solidarity, decolonization, and Cold War neutrality. He was a prominent player in the landmark Bandung Conference in Indonesia in 1955, which eventually led to the establishment of the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961, along with other flawed giants of his era: Gamel Abdel Nasser of Egypt, Josef Broz Tito of Yugoslavia, Kwame Nkrumah of Ghana, and Sukarno of Indonesia. 

But the promise of Asian solidarity was diminished by the Chinese invasion of India in 1962. Although India’s defeat was crushing, the country encountered two assuring and friendly faces of America power in John F Kennedy and John Kenneth Galbraith, his ambassador to India, who ensured US military support for India and brought warmth to Indian views of America. A year later, in 1963, Norman Borlaug arrived in India, testing his high-yielding crop varieties, collaborating with Indian scientists, and helping India achieve self-sufficiency in a decade. 

Two years after the war with China, in 1964, a broken Nehru died. India was a lesser country without him and everyone who followed him was dwarfed by his shadow. But the mistakes of great men also exact a great price: Nehru’s intransigence and failure to allow a just resolution to the Kashmir dispute contributed to decades of violence, militarization, and great suffering for the people of Kashmir, and the furies unleashed by the battles for my home distorted the polities of India and Pakistan. 


American power and its manifestations in Asia—military aid, alliances, food assistance, deployment of its overwhelming force—remained tied to the fundamental goal of maintaining American supremacy by containing Soviet power and influence. A confluence of values was largely ignored at the altar of strategic interests. As Nehru once remarked in the context of Kashmir, “We cannot afford to lose,” he told a visitor. “Till things improve, democracy and morality can wait.” 

America’s need for an ally on the eastern flank of the Soviet Union willing to offer bases from where American jets could strike inside the Red Imperium was met by Pakistan, which also joined the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization and the Central Treaty Organization. America reciprocated by supplying weapons, and Pakistani soldiers drove American Patton tanks across the border into Indian territory when the intimate enemies fought another war over Kashmir in 1965. 

Six months after that war, when Lal Bahadur Shastri, her father’s successor, died of a heart attack in Tashkent after signing a peace agreement with Pakistan, Indira Gandhi, the 49-year-old daughter of Nehru, became prime minister in January 1966. The monsoon had failed that year and she needed American wheat to save millions from starvation. President Lyndon Johnson was already embroiled in the Vietnam War when Mrs. Gandhi traveled to the United States to meet him in the spring of 1966.

A year earlier, India’s president, S Radhakrishnan, a philosopher who had served as Nehru’s ambassador to the Soviet Union, proposed a peace plan for Vietnam calling for cessation of hostilities. Johnson wasn’t pleased. As the historian Ramachandra Guha recounts, India was receiving 15 million tons of American wheat under a public loan scheme from the United States in 1965 and 1966. And while Johnson offered Mrs. Gandhi a warm reception, the American president decided to “keep his supplicants on a tight leash.” 

On her return from Washington, Indira Gandhi faced an economic and political crisis at home. The wily old bosses of the Congress Party were trying to be the real power behind the throne. To fight the power brokers, Indira had surrounded herself with a group of brilliant mandarins who preferred the Soviet Union over the United States. A turn toward rousing socialist rhetoric in a very poor country would endear her to the masses. 

In the summer of 1966, the Indian government condemned the bombing of Hanoi and Haiphong. Mrs. Gandhi traveled to Moscow, where she signed a joint statement with Soviet Premier Alexei Kosygin condemning the imperial aggression in Vietnam and calling for an “immediate and unconditional” end to the bombings of Hanoi and Haiphong.

A furious Lyndon Johnson ordered that the monthly food shipments to India not be sent without his personal authorization, which he relished in delaying. Inder Malhotra, an Indian journalist, recalled decades later, “India literally almost lived from ‘ship to mouth’ and those of us who lived through that era swallowed a measure of humiliation with every morsel of American food.”  


The war in Vietnam found its way into Satyajit Ray’s 1970 film Pratidwandi, or The Adversary, which captures the upheaval and the despair of the time in India, through a medical school dropout’s search of an unattainable job. In a job interview, an aging suit asks the protagonist to name the most outstanding and significant event of the last decade, and they spar over their choices: the moon landing versus the Vietnam War. The candidate doesn’t find the moon landing surprising or unpredictable considering the advances in space technology. 

“Do you think the war in Vietnam was unpredictable?” the suit demands. 

“Not the war itself. But what it has revealed about the Vietnamese people, about their extraordinary power of resistance. Ordinary people. Peasants,” the candidate replies.  

“And no one knew they had it in them. And this is not a matter of technology. . . . It is just plain, human courage and it takes your breath away.” 

The closer American power, wars, and great power gambits came to Indian shores the more American prestige declined in India. In the summer of 1969, as the war escalated in Vietnam and anti-war protests raged across the country, President Richard Nixon and his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger were working on a rapprochement with the People’s Republic of China to change the balance of power against the Soviet Union.

General Yahya Khan, the military dictator of Pakistan, who had warm relations with both, became the secret channel between Nixon and the Communist China leadership. 

In December 1970, Pakistan, whose Eastern and Western wings uneasily flanked India, held its national election. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s Awami League, which represented the more populous Bengali-speaking East Pakistan, won.

Yahya Khan and the West Pakistani elite, dominated by the Punjabis, which looked down on the Bengalis, refused to allow Rahman form the government. Protests erupted in Dhaka and Yahya Khan’s military responded with genocidal violence, killing hundreds of thousands Bengalis and forcing ten million refugees into India. 

In April 1971, Arthur Blood, an American diplomat in Dhaka, wrote “The Blood Telegram,” to Washington, a devastating plea for action that described the horrors being inflicted by the Pakistani military. Nixon ignored it. Yahya Khan’s secret diplomacy with the Chinese leadership had landed Nixon the coveted invitation to visit the People’s Republic.

American grand strategy was always more important than brown lives in the Third World. Nixon did nothing to restrain Yahya Khan. Public opinion in America wasn’t a concern for Nixon, who was certain of American indifference toward “just a bunch of brown goddamn Moslems.” 

Three million people were killed in East Pakistan. “To condemn these violations publicly would have destroyed the Pakistani channel, which would be needed for months to complete the opening to China,” Kissinger told The Atlantic in an interview. India, which had been secretly training and arming Bengali insurgents, briskly accelerated ongoing conversations with Moscow and signed a military pact with the Soviet Union in August 1970. Any remaining pretense of nonalignment was over. 

Mrs. Gandhi met with Nixon and Kissinger at the White House, a visit that achieved little in preventing a war between India and Pakistan. Gary H Bass, a Princeton historian, analyzed declassified audio conversations between Nixon and Kissinger, which provided a stunning record of their racist and sexist vocabulary that he believes influenced foreign policy. Among the abusive epithets Kissinger and Nixon used for Mrs. Gandhi and Indians: unattractive, pathetic, repulsive, a scavenging people, masters at subtle flattery. 

“After a short war in December, India defeated Pakistan, and helped create the independent state of Bangladesh. Two memories from that time profoundly shaped India’s attitudes toward America: Nixon dispatching the nuclear-armed USS Enterprise to the Indian Ocean; the Soviet Union dispatching naval vessels and submarines to Indian waters in solidarity.” 


The lure of America never ceases to diminish despite the destruction America inflicts and heaps upon the world. The war in Vietnam coincided with the liberalization of American immigration laws in 1965, which removed restrictive national origin quotas for Asia and allowed Asian students, skilled workers, and professionals to migrate to the United States.

An Indian engineering student from Lucknow, in northern India, who studied and worked in America in the 1970s recalled watching a film about the 1964 New York World’s Fair at a United States Information Service outpost in his city: “I was dazzled by what I saw in the film since it was a showcase of all the latest gadgets of modern life.” The Indian diaspora in America grew at an incredibly brisk pace: from 12,000 in 1960 to 450,000 in 1990. 

The long estrangement between India and the United States continued, largely hovering around India’s nuclear ambitions. India conducted its first nuclear test in 1974. Four years later, in 1978, President Jimmy Carter signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which demanded inspections of nuclear facilities of countries not included in the treaty.

India, which was not a signatory, refused. America stopped nuclear assistance to India’s nuclear power plants, a move it reversed after Mrs. Gandhi traveled to Washington in 1982. India Today, the leading Indian magazine of the time, christened Mrs. Gandhi’s visit “Operation Defrost,” and described it with the Indian love of hyperbole as a “spectacular voyage” in which Mrs. Gandhi “dazzled America,” as no other world leader had in recent memory. 


Two assassinations bookended Indian polity between the early eighties and the early nineties: Indira Gandhi’s assassination by her Sikh bodyguards in 1984 after she ordered Indian troops to attack the Golden Temple, the holiest Sikh shrine, to flush out Sikh militants sheltering there; and the 1991 assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, her younger son, by Sri Lankan Tamil Tigers, avenging his botched military intervention in Sri Lanka.

A series of cynical political plays by Mrs. Gandhi and her son had intensified religious strife across the country and contributed to the eruption of an armed insurgency in Kashmir in the winter of 1989–90. Economic policies guiding India’s mixed economy, which combined the “worst aspects of socialism and capitalism,” had brought the economy to the brink of collapse by the summer of 1991. 

It was a time of profound global transformation with the reunification of Germany, the fall of communist dictatorships in Eastern Europe, and the Soviet Union on the verge of dissolution. India faced a moment of reckoning: Its foreign debt had risen to around $72 billion and foreign exchange reserves had collapsed to less than the sum required to finance imports for two weeks.

Desperate, India pawned off its gold on banks in Europe and Japan to raise funds. In June 1991, P. V. Narasimha Rao, a Congress Party leader who had served as Rajiv Gandhi’s foreign minister, took office as prime minister and appointed Manmohan Singh, a Cambridge economist, as finance minister. 

In the summer of 1991, Manmohan Singh dismantled the controlled economy of India by ending the Byzantine regulatory regime that had long stifled industry and opening up the country to foreign investment, removing currency controls, lowering import tariffs, devaluing the rupee, reducing taxes, and scrapping industrial licensing.

In a July 1991 speech to the Indian parliament, Singh, wearing a blue turban and a white sherwani, spoke with controlled passion, and called for a second industrial revolution and a second agricultural revolution. He quoted Victor Hugo: “No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come. I suggest to this august House that the emergence of India as a major economic power in the world happens to be one such idea.” 

In the following decade, Singh’s reforms grew the economy rapidly, producing a new middle class with disposable incomes. In the mid- and late 1990s, I was a student at a public university in a small town a couple of hours from Delhi. Despite our genteel poverty, the sense of possibility and transformation was palpable. The United States in its unipolar moment, and the icons of American capitalism and technology, were quickly replacing the old heroes of socialist India. 

Our conversations at university didn’t center on Nasser, Sukarno, or Nkrumah but on Bill Gates and Sabeer Bhatia, who co-founded Hotmail. Cyber cafes, powered by dial-up Internet, were our gateways to American universities. When McDonald’s came to India, without beef but with a vegetarian menu, the waiting lines recalled religious festivals.

The newspapers and magazines listed the shocking salaries the graduates of elite management and computer sciences schools were offered. Azim Premji, Shiv Nadar, Narayana Murthy, and F. C. Kohli, the pioneers of India’s infotech revolution, the billionaire makers of the New India, became names that evoked the same reverence once reserved for the Nehrus and the Gandhis. 

Indian society was enthralled by America and American attitudes to consumerism, capitalism, and individual freedoms. I found work as a reporter for a website in Delhi at the turn of the millennium. Globalization was the vibe. American corporations were outsourcing service jobs by the thousands to India.

The rise of the multibillion outsourcing industry in India even captured the attention of Susan Sontag, who spoke about young Indians acquiring mastery of English and inventing American personas in their call center jobs. “To pull this off, they have to be plausibly American to themselves. They have been assigned American names and little biographies of their American identities,” Sontag said. 

Mujahid, my flatmate, was one of those young Indians. He trained for months to erase traces of Tamil in his English and emerged with a middle-American accent. He taught me American slang and idioms and spoke relentlessly about American sitcoms and the Super Bowl. He would leave for work in the evenings to work on Central Standard Time and pass as an American through the night on calls with customers in Chicago and Milwaukee. His American name was Adam Smith. 

The New India evoked breathless comparisons to the Roaring Twenties. Yet a million mutinies exacting terrible human costs persisted in India along with its euphoric transformation: a savage war still raged in Kashmir; insurgencies flourished in the northeastern states bordering Myanmar and China; Maoist rebels fought Indian forces across the forests of central India; crushing loans and the failure to increase agricultural productivity had pushed thousands of farmers to suicide; the quality of most educational institutions remained bleak; the state of the health care, legal, and policing systems remained terrifying. 


The humiliation of waiting for American wheat and the righteous activism that fought against American hegemony were distant memories when I moved to New York for graduate school in the mid-2000s. India was a rising power, a would-be great power.

“The world—and particularly the United States—is courting India as it never has before,” Fareed Zakaria wrote in Newsweek. “Fascinated by the new growth story, perhaps wary of Asia’s Chinese superpower, searching to hedge some bets, the world has woken up to India’s potential.”

He recalled being at the World Economic Forum in Davos where he witnessed India dominate the conversation and Klaus Schwab dressed in “a colorful Indian turban and shawl, nibbled on chicken tikka and talked up the country’s prospects with Michael Dell.” 

In New York, I encountered a lot of hand-wringing about the American wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, about the scandals of Abu Ghraib and Bagram and the languages of torture and rendition. American colleagues were curious how India saw the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The truth is that they simply didn’t incite the fury and advocacy that the Korean and Vietnam wars did in India. 

The Times of India, the highest-selling English newspaper in the country, did publish a cartoon strip called “Dubyaman,” which lampooned George Bush. And India, witnessing the rise of Hindu nationalism in parallel with economic liberalization, had a coalition government led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party that refused an American request for 17,000 Indian soldiers to be deployed in Iraq. 

Atal Bihari Vajpayee, a Hindu nationalist politician with decades of experience, led the Indian government. The political costs of risking the lives of Indian soldiers for an American war would be prohibitive.

The Indian pursuit of strategic autonomy remained alive and well. The Hindu nationalists collaborated with the Bush administration on terrorism—with an eye on Pakistan and Kashmir—and imported American Islamophobic rhetoric for political gain, but the nuclear isolation imposed by America was never forgotten. 

Prime Minister Vajpayee—moved by the pursuit of great power status, as well as converting a nuclear nationalist surge into electoral gains—greenlit the nuclear weapon tests by India in May 1998 and subsequently declared India a nuclear armed state.

Pakistan followed with its own nuclear weapons tests within days. President Bill Clinton imposed sanctions prohibiting American economic and military assistance to India and Pakistan. The nuclear order led by the United States had been punishing since its first nuclear test in 1974. Now, America had tightened the noose of nonproliferation.

“India had been the target of an increasingly restrictive, rigorous and continually expanding regime of technology denial,” the diplomat Shyam Saran, who served as India’s foreign secretary, lamented in “How India Sees the World: Kautilya to the 21st Century.” India’s economy, energy needs, and electricity shortages were growing. Nuclear power could help but India didn’t have uranium or the advanced nuclear reactors of Europe and the United States since it was barred from the nuclear energy market. 


America evokes unparalleled desire and unparalleled envy. I was in Delhi when I found out about the September 11 attacks: sudden euphoric cries rose from several desks around me. I was a young reporter, and spending my nights trying to learn from Gay Talese, Norman Mailer, Michael Herr, and Joan Didion.

I was among the few in the office who went quiet. America ceased to be invincible that morning. In its wounded fury and indiscriminate lashing out—the  invasion of Iraq, industrial use of torture and rendition, wild expansion of homeland security, and shredding of norms and alliances—America began to squander its legitimacy and moral standing. 

China was rising fast, and the heirs of George Kennan and Paul Nitze were energetically offering manifestoes for managing or containing its rise. They spoke of the road to contain Beijing passing through New Delhi.

They spoke of the shared values of liberalism, democracy, and boisterous multiethnic polities. The reliable American quest for preserving the country’s global dominance and the attractions of  a consistently growing Indian economy updated American ideas about India. 

On October 10, 2008, the United States and India signed the US–India Civil Nuclear Agreement after three years of negotiations and domestic opposition. It was unprecedented: India was firm in its refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which it considered a discriminatory regime. America modified its laws, created the first exception to the nuclear order, accepted in spirit India as a nuclear weapons state, and opened India’s access to nuclear technology.

 India’s embrace of American influence and power was never more clear. Still, the orgiastic moment wouldn’t change the Indian way of doing business: India would be friendly and open to all the American help it needed—while also pursuing relationships with other powers to strengthen its interests. 


The euphoric success with America was followed by a dramatic decline of the Congress Party and subsequent fall of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government. In the summer of 2014, another “New India” was born with the electoral success of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party and the rise of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

In the following years, Modi’s India focused on two interlinked goals: India’s transformation from a semi-liberal democracy into an authoritarian Hindu-first state, and a vigorously advertised pursuit of great power through transactional nonalignment.  

The presidency of Donald Trump magnified perceptions of American decline as he shredded commitments to multilateral institutions, tore up international agreements, and eviscerated even the pretense of values in the affairs of nations.

Trump took a more aggressive approach to China, increased defense cooperation with India, and strengthened the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue alliance between India, the United States, Australia, and Japan to contain Beijing. The great gift Trump’s America offered Modi’s India was the gift of American silence on minority rights and the limiting of the freedom of press and expression.  

Soon after taking office, President Joe Biden declared: “America is back.” After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Biden responded with a rousing call of a struggle between “a rules-based order and one governed by brute force.”

American attempts to make Russia’s isolation a matter of stark moral choice clashed against a transformed world that was uninterested in arranging itself into camps of followers in a Cold War-style confrontation between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing. 

The age of transactional nationalism had dawned and the middle powers had energetically embraced it. Soon after Russia invaded Ukraine, Turkey made sure that Russians knew that their country, despite being a member of NATO, was still a welcoming tourist destination.

The United Arab Emirates had a surge in property purchases by wealthy Russians looking for safe harbor for their wealth as sanctions squeeze them out of Europe. Brazil, where agriculture is a pillar of the economy, sought ways to avoid American sanctions on Russia in order to keep a steady supply of Russian fertilizers flowing into the country. And India moved to purchase immense amounts of Russian crude oil every day—at a steeply discounted price. 

America was and remains the most powerful player in the game. The world was still keen to influence America, become friends, and do business but American sanctimony and rhetoric about democratic values and the liberal order would evoke yawns and sniggers in India and elsewhere in the Global South. The liberal order turned to ash in the fires that eviscerated Palestinian lives and habitats in Gaza—fires that were kept burning by America.  

Testimonies of the famine in Gaza and images of Palestinian children dying of hunger started reaching us in January and February. American power played a great role in ensuring they had been denied food.

I thought of my father telling me stories about an American man, a scientist, who gave years of his life to help hungry strangers across the world grow more food.  I still remember his name. 

Norman Borlaug.  

Basharat Peer is the author of  “Curfewed Night”, a memoir about the conflict in Kashmir, and  “A Question of Order: India, Turkey and the Return of Strongmen.” He has written for The New Yorker, Granta, Foreign Affairs, The Guardian, n+1, and The New York Times. He worked as an opinion editor at The New York Times and at the International Crisis Group as deputy director for its Future of Conflict Program.

This essay was originally published in “ The Ideas Letter, a project of the Open Society Foundations, and is republished with permission.

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As Kremlin eyes US thaw, Russia’s war hawks are squawking – Asia Times

At face value, the Kremlin has plenty to celebrate after US and Russian officials held high-level bilateral talks on the war in Ukraine for the first time since the full-scale conflict began in 2022.

Russian delegates at the meeting, which took place on February 18 in Saudi Arabia, struck an ebullient tone. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov concluded that “the American side has begun to better understand our position,” while Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund and an envoy for Moscow, noted that the delegates managed to loosen up enough to laugh and joke.

President Vladimir Putin did not attend the meeting, but he characterized it the following day as “very friendly,” going as far as to describe the American delegation as “completely different people” who were “ready to negotiate with an open mind and without any judgment over what was done in the past.”

And the talks are far from the only reason for optimism in Moscow. In statements that echoed Kremlin propaganda, US President Donald Trump blamed Ukraine for being invaded and described Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a “dictator.”

The US then sided with Russia in two United Nations votes on the conflict and opposed language describing Russia as the aggressor in a draft G7 statement marking the anniversary of the war.

This perceived rapprochement between Washington and Moscow has many critics on both sides of the Atlantic. Within Russia the reaction has been mixed. And not everybody in Moscow is celebrating the apparent shift in US policy.

Favoring pragmatism

Of course, many Russians would welcome a thaw in relations. In January, Russia’s leading independent polling group found that 61% of Russians favored peace talks over continuing the war in Ukraine – the highest level yet.

Meanwhile, the number of web searches for “When will the ‘special military operation’ end?” on Yandex, a Russian tech firm, reached its highest-ever weekly total in the wake of the US-Russia talks.

While public opinion is unlikely to shape the Kremlin’s approach given Putin’s sole control over major foreign policy decisions, evidence suggests that a rapprochement with the United States could also be a boon for Putin at home.

In a recently published article in the peer-reviewed journal International Security, my co-author Henry Hale and I found that while most Russians view the US and NATO as threats, they largely prefer a pragmatic, measured response from the Kremlin – an approach they believed Putin delivered prior to the war in 2022.

High-level summits between Russia and the US have tended to be well received, we found. This is because they tap into a widely held preference for cooperation as well as depicting Russia as a geopolitical “equal” to the US.

Pro-war hardliners speak out

Yet not everyone is pleased with the prospect of closer US ties. Russia’s vocal minority of tub-thumping war supporters is already angry.

This loose community of so-called “Z-patriots” – a reference to the large “Z” letters marking Russian military equipment at the beginning of the war – has been a double-edged sword for the Kremlin.

While they have been helpful in mobilizing grassroots support for the war, they have also lambasted Moscow’s execution and made pointed criticisms of top military brass. Such attacks are, in effect, a way of making veiled attacks on Putin himself.

And we are talking about a sizable minority. Estimates indicate that Z-patriots – the more hawkish and ideologically committed segment of war supporters – represent 13% to 27% of the Russian population.

One of this group’s most prominent ideologues, Zakhar Prilepin, didn’t pull any punches in a recent interview. He described as “humiliating” the fact that “the Russian media community, political scientists and politicians are dancing with joy and telling us how wonderful everything is [now that] Trump has arrived.”

There are reasons to take this group seriously. According to Marlène Laruelle, an expert on nationalism and ideology in Russia, the Z-patriots are emerging as key opinion leaders.

Unlike other ideological camps in Russia, the Z-patriots are very much a product of the war, having emerged from the popular military blogging community and with deep connections to paramilitary and veterans organizations.

Indeed, many sympathized with former mercenary Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s anti-elite rants, while Igor Girkin, a former Donbas warlord who claimed to have sparked the initial war in eastern Ukraine in 2014, openly mocked Putin to his almost million-strong Telegram followers.

The Kremlin partially cracked down on some of the Z-patriots in 2023. Prigozhin’s ill-fated mutiny in June was followed by his suspicious death in a plane crash later that summer, while Girkin was jailed and handed a four-year prison sentence for “inciting extremism.”

Yet the Z-patriots remain a force. Girkin, commenting on the US-Russia talks from prison, lamented the “egregious managerial and command failure” over the past three years and sarcastically concluded that Moscow’s political elites, aware of their own weakness, are likely to “‘drag their heels’ in their inimitable style – and with their well-known genius.”

Other pro-war voices expressed skepticism about the information communicated by the Russian delegation and ironically said they expected the Kremlin would pass a law against “discrediting Russia-American relations,” a play on the March 2022 law against “discrediting” Russia’s military.

Sanctions relief a concern

Some of the sharpest criticisms of the Kremlin have been about the economy.

Recent weeks have seen renewed optimism among many in Russia that sanctions relief is on the horizon and that sought-after Western brands may return. Russia – since 2022 the most sanctioned country in the world – had previously appeared to accept that sanctions would remain for decades to come.

The Russian delegation at the recent talks emphasized the prospect of economic cooperation with the United States, no doubt believing Trump to be receptive to such mercantile framings.

A few days later, Putin announced a willingness to develop Russia’s rare earth minerals with foreign partners, including the United States, in what appeared to be an attempt to outbid Zelenskyy.

This, too, provoked a populist backlash among Z-patriots. “Grampa’s lost it,” one wrote in a thinly veiled swipe at Putin.

Another displayed dismay that “stealing Russia’s natural resources once again became a prospect for mutually beneficial cooperation with American partners.”

“We’ve barely begun to develop small and medium businesses,” Prilepin noted, deriding the “unbearable” excitement around the possibility of Western brands returning.

These sentiments have struck a chord with other parts of society. After all, some Russian businesses have benefited from Western brands’ exit from the Russian market. The government is attempting to fend off these criticisms with a new bill proposed to Russia’s parliament on February 27 calling to ban Western companies that had financially supported Ukraine.

What to do about veterans?

Perhaps most consequential will be what happens to the hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers currently on the front lines.

While runaway military spending and lavish payouts to soldiers continue to strain the Russian economy, demobilization also poses risks.

A report from the Institute for the Study of War recently concluded that demobilization would be politically risky for the Kremlin, fearful that masses of disgruntled veterans might constitute a potential challenge.

That said, many of the estimated 700,000 Russian troops in Ukraine will eventually return to civilian life and likely become an important constituency in Russian politics moving forward.

The Z-patriots may be a product of war, but they will have an afterlife beyond it. Meanwhile, regardless of any Russian rapprochement with the White House – or perhaps because of it – Russia’s hawks won’t be turning into doves anytime soon.

Adam Lenton is an assistant professor of politics and international affairs at Wake Forest University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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