US funding cut hands more power to a dictator in North Korea – Asia Times

The UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in North Korea made an appeal to the global community this week. She expressed concern about the impact of civic culture efforts on North Korean individual rights.

The National Endowment for Democracy ( NED), a non-governmental organization in the US, is the cause of concern.

Organizations that document and assist in halting human rights abuses in North Korea are one of the main beneficiaries of funding from the NED.

The money suspension is a possibility to worsen the lives of those who live under one of the most severe authoritarian regimes in the world.

What exactly is a NED?

The US entity known as the “bastion of Republican internationalism,” the NED is a long-standing member of the NED. It was a result of a legislative action passed by President Ronald Reagan in 1983.

The NED is firmly rooted in the fundamental principles of Democratic democracy, which include global cooperation and bipartisan help. It supports humanitarian organizations ‘ activities in more than 100 nations each year.

The effects of cutting off funding miraculously are obvious, but it’s unclear why Elon Musk, in his position in the Department of Government Performance, has unexpectedly taken aim at this organization.

One outcome is likely to be the end of decades-long research into North Korean individual freedom.

How this impacts North Korea

The Citizens ‘ Alliance for North Korean Human Rights is one of the organizations that has been hardest hit by this money ice. The first single-issue North Korean human rights organization, it then intends to shut its doors.

Without NED financing, it claims it is unable to cover its operating costs, such as rent and staff wages.

Additionally, it is unable to carry on its significant labor of examining and documenting human rights violations committed by North Korean citizens.

The Citizens ‘ Alliance is just one of many organizations that rely on the NED for their work, the majority of which are based in South Korea.

North Korean human rights activists face uncertain and precarious social conditions in South Korea. There are few other alternatives despite years of efforts to extend funding sources.

Over the course of more than 20 years, I have spent considerable effort studying this issue. Because it is so greatly embedded, both politically and socially, it cannot be resolved overnight or even in the medium term.

Seoul-based organizations may look elsewhere if they are unable to obtain money in South Korea.

Yet many of the applicable international assistance programs are used to support human rights and reform initiatives.

No effective, open civil society initiatives can be properly carried out in North Korea because the totalitarian regime is so complete. The movements relies entirely on international activism, so it doesn’t neatly fit into current funding initiatives.

Additionally, South Korea is currently in a state of political unrest, which makes the revenue ice come at a particularly bad period. It is questionable what the future holds for the few remaining activities that have already been in place following President Yoon Suk-yeol’s declaration of martial law.

focusing on North Korea

The situation of those who were subject to human rights violations inside the mysterious nation was not widely known to the outside world for a long time.

Civil society organizations have organized partnerships, gathered data, created information, created databases, organized public awareness events, and lobbied on all levels for decades. The UN Commission of Inquiry into North Korea’s Human Rights was therefore established by them.

For more than ten times, this investigation, led by Australia’s Michael Kirby, has been the comprehensive report on North Vietnamese human rights.

Its conclusions of flagrant human rights violations within the nation have served as the justification for global action on North Korea. The study’s findings include some instances:

  • the use of social prison camps, abuse, executions, and other forms of arbitrary detention to curb actual or perceived political discord,
  • a nearly total disregard for the freedom of expression, faith, and connection,
  • the use of community command over access to food.

Non-profit North Vietnamese human rights organizations continue to be at the forefront of this endeavor. They continue to press for greater attention to the human rights situation from the global community, having successfully placed the matter firmly on the global agenda.

The organizations that are funded by NED perform a wide range of tasks. They assist North Koreans who reside in South Korea and other places overseas. Some provide help for formal human rights violations, assisting in the creation of a powerful database of survivors ‘ testimony.

Some continue to support and hold accountable many different advocacy, support, and reporting efforts, while others return in-country accounts from secret North Korean journalists.

However, all of this work may stop sooner than anyone had anticipated.

A despot has more energy, right?

All but its most serious initiatives have been put on hold by the Database Center for North Korean Human Rights, and it has launched an attractiveness for gifts. Executive Director Hannah Song characterized the circumstance as” a large and sudden cut to money that threatens the important function of those on the battlefront.”

Another nonprofit organization working in this field, led by Sokeel Park, described it as” by far the biggest problems facing Organizations working on this matter since the movement started in the 1990s.”

This is not an understatement. The international community’s knowledge and understanding of how the North Korean government upholds order and suppresses opposition has grown significantly as a result of the North Korean animal rights movements.

Who then emerges victorious in this? Kim Jong-un, the country’s most powerful leader and tyrant.

In his State of the Union address from earlier this year, US President Donald Trump focused on the human rights violations that the North Korean people have suffered from the autocratic government. Trump said he would:

To understand the nature of the potential nuclear danger, all we need to do is examine the wicked character of the Northern Korean government.

The Trump presidency appears to be allowing one of the world’s most barbarous authoritarian regimes by properly stifling the government’s most vociferous critics.

Danielle Chubb is Deakin University’s associate professor of foreign connections.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Learn the article’s introduction.

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Settling balance sheets of history or financing futures – Asia Times

The Wilson Center published” Why Russia Gave Crimea Away Sixty Years Ago” in March 2014. The author relied on initial paperwork that had been made public following the fall of the Soviet Union.

The study compared those documents to established claims the Russian authorities made in 1954 when it transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federation of Socialist Republics to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. The records provided a simple, false history of events involving the two nations that date back 300 times. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The invented narratives served as a cover for power problems within the Soviet Union, and they were connected to Nikita Khrushchev’s attempts to retake control after his elevation to the position of first minister of the Communist Party in September 1953. The irony of the 1954 Crimean exchange, which Moscow undertook to improve its hold over Ukraine, was brought to the end by Wilson.

Politicians are mired in outdated strategies to sit historical balance sheets rather than to explore options to fund the future. With the Treaty of Versailles and the Munich Agreement, to name only two, Europe made this error.

Related errors are being made by President Zelensky. He insists that the economic contract that President Trump suggested have security clauses in place because he thinks this will inhibit Russia. Munich is there on September 29, 1938, though.

Germany and England’s Neville Chamberlain and France’s Edouard Daladier signed a contract that allows it to annex Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia. Hitler promised to stop imposing any new regional restrictions on Europe when he invaded. The League of Nations, the weak and careless variation of the present-day United Nations, remained motionless on the war.

In a nutshell, social contract provisions are useless. True, wars are fought with terms, but mostly with swords by well-trained and patriotic war. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Israel does not count on NATO or Europe as part of its written security deal with the US. It won war and deflected terrorist attacks despite being surrounded by brutal, vicious dictatorships, tens of military installations roaming neighboring failed nations with better workforce, as well as dozens of defense organizations roaming neighboring failed countries. It has been not only winning but even turning into a” start-up nation” thanks to its patriotic war, which is aided primarily by US military technology.

Take a closer look with these messages. President Zelensky is unable to alter the place of his country, as is the situation with the rulers of Israel. He was, however, alter its demography. Ukraine had the lowest fertility rate in Europe, standing at 1.16 in 2000, with 2.5 million young Russians leaving between 1991 and 2014, compared to the country’s lowest fertility level. Since the conflict, there have been approximately 6 million more people who are still alive, primarily fresh, and reproduction has dropped to 1, when the inhabitants replacement level calls for a replacement of 2.1 %. Before the conflict, Ukrainian sociologists predicted that the people had quickly drop from about 40 million to 26 million. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The usage of “fatherlands” and “motherlands” are acceptable beliefs. What does a continuing battle accomplish, however, if the younger generations cast ballots with their vaginas and feet and depart from these regions? Demography is no dream, but…

What are the alternatives then?

I’m not sure if Henry Kissinger, the former US Secretary of State, based his recommendations years ago that Kyiv settlement, ceding country to Russia, on the above data. If he thought of them, he held them close to his neck or discussed them behind closed doors, Diplomat as he was. Kissinger suggested in the press that Ukraine should greater take ceding the eastern territories to Russia.

President Trump did not recommend this as a place to start negotiations with Russia, but instead offered a purely commercial/financial commitment as a starting point. &nbsp,

Kissinger also sent a strong warning to both the Russian government and its European allies, saying that” Pursuing the war beyond that stage would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a fresh war against Russia itself,” which is a phrase that President Trump used in more alarming words in reference to World War III. Kissinger even mentioned the danger of pushing Russia into China’s hands.

Zelensky also made a harsh comparison to Kissinger, saying that” these “great geopolitical figures” never see ordinary people, ordinary Ukrainians, millions of people living on the territory they are proposing to exchange for an illogical peace. You must always observe people.

When someone openly speculates what others might be thinking or feeling, it never helps when that is the case in an open discussion about inhumanity in the Oval Office. &nbsp,

President Zelensky doesn’t seem to realize that despite reiterateling his desire for land and security guarantees, he is ignoring the de-populated area and giving up on the Ukrainians.

Few young Europeans are willing to fight there. They hardly have the patriotism to fight for Brussels, the EU, or Ukraine, despite yelling slogans in Western European capitals for whatever.

Despite having entrepreneurial vision and execution, Henry Ford is not a historical figure that I admire, but I do agree with his claim that “history is more or less bunk.” It is customary. We oppose tradition. The only historical context that is worth a tinker’s damn is the one we create today, and we want to live in the present. This observation does not suggest that Ukrainians who are suffering are not moved. &nbsp, &nbsp,

However, political compromisions are required for leaps into the future, and financing requires retaining and attracting critical masses of young minds.

An aging population neither climbs barricades nor has future hopes.

Kissinger did state in his Davos speech that he hoped Ukrainians would “match the heroism they have shown with wisdom”.

Perhaps the statement “matching heroism with a clearer understanding of both the country’s demography, and that the future depends on young minds with continuous access to finance – and which requires political stability more than territory – offers concrete, less emotional guidance.”

President Trump did offer this forward-thinking solution, whether you agree or disagree with the way things turned out in the Oval Office, but President Zelensky, regrettably, stuck with a few backward-looking failed ideas, believing that clauses on political papers are the keys to stabilizing solutions.

The article uses Brenner’s” How to Relink 7 billion People” and” Four of Finance.”

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Five takeaways from Trump’s Ukraine military aid freeze – Asia Times

Trump reportedly announced to the media on Monday night that a senior US defense official would suspend all military aid to Ukraine until its leaders demonstrate a good-faith devotion to peace.

The announcement comes just weeks after Volodymyr Zelensky, president of Ukraine, and vice chairman JD Vance, president of the United States, met at the White House.

In such a scenario, The Wall Street Journal had previously predicted that Ukraine could simply remain fighting at its present stage until this summer. What can we take away from this significant advancement in five simple terms:

<strong>1. Trump </strong><strong>i</strong><strong>s </strong>determ<strong>i</strong>ned to f<strong>i</strong>nd harmony w<strong>i</strong>th all<strong>i</strong>es.

Zelensky made it clear that he is determined to keep fighting and is still seeking NATO membership and American forces during his fatal attend to the White House last Friday.

Trump doesn’t like those names because they, he said, would harm World War III and that continued fighting would also be a possibility. &nbsp,

Trump, therefore, probably realized that the only way to bring Zelensky to terms with Putin is to thaw all military assistance until he reformers his attitude, which he perceived as severe.

2. Trump and Putin probably have a close-knit deal.

Trump claimed last week that” a ceasefire was occur right away,” which could have unintentionally revealed a surprise deal with Putin.

The second Ukrainian presidential elections are likely to lead to lasting peace, but they can’t be held without lifting martial law, implying the need for a peace.

Putin may help a peace to support the US’s curtailed support to Ukraine and validate Russian-US agreements, but he previously conditioned&nbsp, this on Ukraine withdrawing from the contested areas.

3.<strong> </strong>However,<strong> </strong><stro<strong>n</strong>g>i</stro<strong>n</strong>g>t<strong> </strong><stro<strong>n</strong>g>i</stro<strong>n</strong>g>s<strong> </strong><strong>n</strong><strong>ot<strong> </strong></strong><strong>y</strong><strong>et<strong> </strong></strong><strong>c</strong>omplete.

If the debate is correct, it doesn’t think that those two have reached a consensus.

Major issues like the border crossing between Russia and Ukraine and the peacekeeping issue may not be resolved until after the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in Ukraine.

So, it’s unnecessary to say whether the Line of Contact will become the country’s last frontier or whether American peacekeepers may be stationed along it, particularly since Russia opposes both.

<st<strong>r</strong>ong>4.<st<strong>r</strong>ong> </st<strong>r</strong>ong>Pol<st<strong>r</strong>ong>a</st<strong>r</strong>ong>nd<st<strong>r</strong>ong> </st<strong>r</strong>ong></st<strong>r</strong>ong><st<strong>r</strong>ong>m</st<strong>r</strong>ong><st<strong>r</strong>ong>ig<st<strong>r</strong>ong>h</st<strong>r</strong>ong>t<st<strong>r</strong>ong> </st<strong>r</strong>ong></st<strong>r</strong>ong>be<st<strong>r</strong>ong> </st<strong>r</strong>ong>in<st<strong>r</strong>ong> </st<strong>r</strong>ong><st<strong>r</strong>ong>a</st<strong>r</strong>ong><st<strong>r</strong>ong> </st<strong>r</strong>ong>c<strong>r</strong>uci<st<strong>r</strong>ong>a</st<strong>r</strong>ong>l<st<strong>r</strong>ong> </st<strong>r</strong>ong><st<strong>r</strong>ong>p</st<strong>r</strong>ong>osition.

In exchange for post-conflict benefits, about 90 % of American military aid to Ukraine routes through Poland. Therefore, Trump does ask it to prevent the Europeans from using its place to arm Ukraine while a ceasefire is in place.

He says he doesn’t want the British, French, or Germans to encourage Ukraine to offend the peace or to inspire Russia, and he can encourage Poland to do so by promising to keep American troops there, possibly from Germany to Poland, and by transforming Poland into its most important partner in Europe.

5. Trump’s top priority is the” New Detente.”

Every significant shift that has taken place since Trump’s phone with Putin in mid-February has been based on advancing his grand strategic objective of” New Détente,” which essentially aims to improve international relationships through a game-changing complete partnership.

Trump finally made the fateful decision to stop providing any military assistance to Ukraine because of this goal.

As Trump makes strong techniques to force Zelensky into the table of peace with Putin, transatlantic relations, Russian-US connections, and the nature of British hegemony are all changing before one’s vision.

His most recent one was essentially one of the worst-case cases from the standpoint of Ukraine and Europe, but they had little else to do in order to comply with his demands.

People who believe usually risk paying the price, as Trump repeatedly reminded Zelensky last Friday.

This article, originally published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack, is republished with sort agreement. Subscribe to the Andrew Korybko Newsletter around.

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Developing Asia in a Trump-tariff, China-dumping squeeze – Asia Times

Asia’s officials are at a loss for what turmoil the Trump administration might unleash following due to a barrage of tariffs, hatred for international institutions, and disdain for democratic leaders.

Last week was a striking case in point. On a revenge tour, the US president turned his back on the NATO ally, caused a common dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and doubled his tariffs on China to 20 %. Just days after the 25 % tax on all imports of cars was revealed.

Tariffs on international carmakers may include Japan and South Korea, previously Washington’s two best allies in Asia. With Trump’s burn-it-all-down plan, Asia’s developing markets are in a more precarious position.

Interest rates were cut by central bankers in Indonesia, South Korea, and Thailand over the past several months. But chances are the tax storm coming from Washington has only just begun. And it could swiftly rise in ways that Asian business leaders and politicians have not even begun to exploit.

Trump is currently active pursuing the European Union. Last year, he chided the EU, complaining it “was formed to lock the United States”. He claimed that as a result, US taxes” may be applied to cars and all other products.”

Trump cited the explanation as” they’ve actually taken advantage of us in a different way.” They don’t take our automobiles. They use all kinds of arguments as to why they don’t acknowledge effectively our plantation products.

Trump’s trade war is primarily about China, a goal that will undoubtedly returning to his attention first and frequently. That includes investigating Foreign artificial intelligence businesses and supersizing president Joe Biden’s limits on exporting high-end electronics and chip-making products to the island. Trump also strongly enticing US allies to impose harsh restrictions on Chinese bits.

All of this results in Asia becoming a miniature bubble. ” To say that President Trump has hit the ground running in his next word would be an understatement”, says economist&nbsp, Priyanka&nbsp, Kishore, founder of advisory Asia Decoded.

He has moved quickly on his campaign promises thanks to an expert and dedicated team in place. Just in the first 30 days, a record number of professional commands were signed, according to Kishore.

Consequently, Asia is preparing for the worst. Administrations are putting the brakes on Trumpian tumult by lowering costs and closing the doors.

That includes imposing macro-prudential restrictions, increasing foreign trade supply reserves, and imposing crisis fiscal stimulus to halt economic growth.

Businesses everywhere are finding themselves in harm’s manner. According to Jason Draho, mind of resource allocation for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, companies are “likely dangerous” until Trump’s plans become more growth-focused.

In a note, Goldman Sachs analysts warn that “tariff increases may also boost production costs for some local producers, and may probably quick international retaliation against some US exports, both of which may negatively impact local production.”

Part of the problem is the uncertainty of Trump’s challenges. He threatens to impose large taxes on various nations and businesses the next day, but he backs it.

Trump’s win in the presidential election next November has only strengthened the doubt about the direction of US monetary policy, according to analysts at Capital Economics in a note.

Trump is doing it, they add,” with threats of large punitive&nbsp, tariffs&nbsp, and the potential overturning of traditional political alliances plunging the rest of the world into a condition of heightened uncertainty also. Uncertainty could have an impact on global investment and consumer spending for an extended period, especially if Trump frequently delays his tax dates.

Additionally, it appears as though it’s just a matter of time before Trump’s deeds irreparably harm the dollar and send shockwaves of financial shockwaves that increase risks Asia hasn’t already taken into account. For all the state’s attempt to wean itself off the US dollar, Asia remains much too dollar-centric for convenience.

That is a significant risk because of Trump’s policies ‘ significant risk to the reserve currency. Trump, for instance, has threatened to end the autonomy that gives the Federal Reserve, the country’s guardian of the dollar, such global authority and influence.

Trump has also mused at times about defaulting on US government debt as a means to settle scores with rivals. Or perhaps as a plot to get the US to renounce some of its debts.

While global credit rating organizations may disagree with plans for significant tax cuts. Already, the US debt is zooming toward US$ 37 trillion. And at a time when Trump and his de facto presidential rival Elon Musk are trying to demolish the IRS and other important financial institutions.

Alarm bells have rang out as a result of news that Musk and his associates were also given access to highly sensitive US Treasury Department data.

In a New York Times op-ed last month, Robert Rubin, Lawrence Summers, Timothy Geithner, Jacob Lew and Janet Yellen warned that” no Treasury secretary in his or her first weeks in office should be put in the position where it is necessary to reassure the nation and the world of the integrity of our payments system or our commitment to make good on our financial obligations”.

Any hint of the selective suspension of congressionally authorized payments will be a breach of trust, they claimed, and it will ultimately turn out to be a default. And once lost, our credibility will be challenging to regain.

That’s not to say Asian governments aren’t overdoing efforts to protect their economies from Trump’s trade wars. or that China’s attempt to stop deflation isn’t working for many countries, especially in Southeast Asia.

Trump’s 2017-2021 presidency and the current one’s are a direct result of the fact that China switched from exporting to the West to Global South countries. And at bargain-basement prices as the overcapacity pushing Chinese consumer prices lower spills over into developing Asia.

For instance, since 2021, the number of Chinese exports to the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) members has increased by roughly 25 %. And at the worst possible time, prices are severely undermining Southeast Asia’s crucial export sectors.

At the same time, China’s trade surplus with ASEAN had doubled since Trump 1.0’s tariffs. It serves as a reminder that Asia’s hopes that China would be the growth engine the US was before the Trump era are untrue.

Since 1997, China’s net exports account for roughly one-third of the global GDP ( GDP ). This bookmark is worth considering as developing Asia worries Trump’s tariffs, coupled with Chinese deflation, might restore a 1997-like vibe to Asian markets.

Economica like Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand are now facing the specter of China-driven de-industrialization in ways that few people had anticipated. The Trump 2.0 tariff barrage is set to follow as a result of the avalanche of Chinese goods sweeping smaller economies at an epic scale.

Yet the answer isn’t imposing trade curbs on China’s dumping, which would merely treat the symptoms of developing Asia’s challenges, not the problems themselves.

These misguided actions toward China include enacting anti-dumping laws, targeting e-commerce platforms like Temu, imposing new import customs restrictions, and imposing levies on everything from clothing to irony.

Non-tariff barriers are most prevalent in China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand across Asia. South Korea also raises eyebrows in Washington for regulations and testing standards that could be seen as barriers to entry.

Sonal Varma, an analyst at Nomura Holdings, says that expanding the scope of the reciprocal tax reflects both the complexity and transparency of the process.

Maybe only as a temporary defense. But it’s far more important that developing Asia accelerate efforts to move upmarket into higher-value-added industries, particularly in services, to wean economies off of cheap exports.

That would significantly increase the share of tech “uniform” startups in economies, enabling them to reform rigid economic systems and create new good-paying jobs and wealth.

Developed Asia has plenty of problems of its own. Take Japan, which is currently at risk of collateral damage from Trump’s trade war and slowing China’s economy.

According to Stefan Angrick, head Japan economist at Moody’s Analytics,” A disappointing run of data this year suggests 2025 will be difficult for Japan’s economy.”

” Manufacturing and exports have struggled against a deteriorating trade outlook, production snags, weak external demand, and increased external competition”.

Sticky inflation, according to Angrick, “is pushing real wage growth into the distance, delaying a meaningful recovery in consumption.” While uncertainty over monetary and fiscal policy is an additional drag on things,

” With external and domestic demand unlikely to offer much support in the near term, the outlook for 2025 is deteriorating fast”, Angrick notes.

The impact might be greater for Asia’s remaining regions. Many economists are concerned that the trade war’s overall effects will be much greater than the Trump 2.0 White House’s predictions.

” Macroeconomics is the kryptonite of Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan”, says Yale University’s Stephen Roach. The proposal “displays disregard for facts, disregard for history, and places blame on others for problems that America’s own creation” ( p.

Trump may be trying his luck, according to Chang Shu, an economist for Bloomberg Economics. The restraint Chinese leader Xi Jinping has exercised so far on retaliation steps, she says,” could shift to a more strident retaliatory stance — and a much more damaging trade war”.

China has undoubtedly made it abundantly clear that Trump’s trade restrictions won’t go unchallenged. China may use potentially retaliatory measures, such as reducing US agricultural and food purchases.

Indeed, Xi may use the annual&nbsp, National People’s Congress, taking place in Beijing this week, to hit back harder at Team Trump and in doing so put the rest of Asia more in harm’s way.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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US takeover of Nord Stream could fuel grand Russia deal – Asia Times

In a statement made over the weekend by his and his, decades-long close friend, Matthias Warnig, the Financial Times (FT),” Putinally pushes a deal to resume Nord Stream 2 with US support.”

The idea is that Nord Stream’s potential ownership by the United States may prompt the return of Russian fuel exports to Germany via this megaproject’s one intact pipeline as part of a great deal. This was first marketed in soon November&nbsp with regard to US investment Stephen Lynch’s related plan.

This time, it’s apparently being advanced by Warnig through a unique US-led collaboration involving Lynch. In any case, the fact that it’s back in the news highlights how critical the conversations between the RussianUS and British governments have been since a few weeks ago in Riyadh.

Despite those two’s tariff tensions, the argument is also valid because the EU’s European leader requires less expensive gas to fend off a possible recession that could lower the price of US exports and make the bloc much less significant.

Trump vehemently opposed Nord Stream during his first term, using the pretext that it would increase Germany’s dependence on Russia and that it would also increase the odds that those two managed Central & Eastern Europe ( CEE ) independently to stifle US influence.

However, in reality, he only wanted American LNG to smuggle Russia’s vast oil industry as part of an economic authority play. These concerns persist, but they may change as they are advanced in light of the new world situation.

The” impact therapy” that the US pressured Europe to implement following the “decoupling” from Russian pipeline gas, which nevertheless remains insufficient due to its  increased purchase  of more expensive Russian LNG out of necessity due to an absence of different suppliers, had serious consequences.

When there could have been a gradual transition, as Trump imagined, had he remained in power and prevented the war, the real economy suffered as a result of the sudden spike in prices across the board.

Therefore, allowing the resumption of some Russian pipeline gas to Germany via the undamaged Nord Stream pipeline under US supervision upon acquiring ownership of it would be in the US’ long-term interests.

Similar to how the German-led EU would compromise its so-called “values” by adhering to this pragmatic arrangement, while Russia’s compromise would be to surrender control of the country in exchange for faster sanctions relief.

What’s being presented right now is similar to what was suggested in this early January briefing on creative energy diplomacy.

This includes the US’s approval of the EU’s partial resumption of Russian gas pipeline imports, returning some of Russia’s seized assets as compensation for the US’s control of Nord Stream, and lifting some sanctions like its SWIFT ban for facilitating the resumption of the Russian-EU energy trade.

It’s possible that none of this will actually occur, at least with regard to Nord Stream, to be sure. There are still some factors that could help to counteract this scenario, not the least of which being Trump’s unwillingness to temporarily cede some of the US’s “poached European gas market share back to Russia or the new German leader’s goal of “achieving independence” from the US.

However, the most recent reports suggest that it’s premature to rule out Nord Stream’s partial revival, which could occur sooner or later.

This article was originally published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Subscribe to the Andrew Korybko Newsletter here.

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With US military aid cut, Ukraine prepares to fight alone – Asia Times

In an interview with The Economist on February 12th, 2018, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview with The Economist that “if we are never invited to NATO, we must create NATO on our territory.”

His remarks were made in response to earlier indications from the Trump presidency that Ukraine would not be joining the surveillance empire. Impressive costs on Russia separate of American products is even more crucial now that the Oval Office spat has occurred and the reports that Trump is now cutting off all military aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine has gradually increased its ability to penetrate deep into Russian territory since 2022, continually improving its range and abilities. Zelensky cited these work in his New Year’s address, saying that Ukraine now produces more than a million robots yearly while expanding its missile production, and citing Ukraine’s “arguments for a really peace.”

Long-range hit capabilities have become a key component of Ukraine’s defense strategy as it enters its third year of hostilities. They play a significant role in its efforts to establish NATO within its own territories. While American military assistance is still important, Kyiv’s ability to develop its own weapons is emerging as a necessary wall of punishment and a means of increasing costs for the Kremlin.

As evidenced by Sweden’s most recent US$ 1.2 billion military and help package,$ 90 million has been designated for Ukraine’s missile and drone generation, this shift in focus is even apparent from Ukraine’s Western partners. With Trump’s end of US military support, this ability may be put to the test.

Ukraine has focused its problems on Russia’s energy system, especially oil refineries, which are the engine behind Moscow’s war effort. The Kremlin’s risk is exposed because it is still heavily dependent on oil revenues to support its war work, according to estimates that drone and missile strikes have now destroyed 10 % of Russia’s refining&nbsp capacity.

Following recent U.S. drone attacks, four big Russian oil refineries have suspended operations. Recurrent strikes over the past year have helped bring Russia’s capacity for refining and distributing crude oil to its lowest level in 12 years, while also pushing Russia’s common everyday production to a 20-year lower.

Beyond industries, Ukraine has expanded its targeting , expanding its to fuel transport centers, explosives factories, and munitions depots. &nbsp,

In an interview, Serhii Kuzan, the head of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center and former assistant to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, spoke about the larger-scale effects of these attacks, noting that” Russia’s oil market is a foundation of its business; oil and gas products account for the bulk of its export.”

Kuzan added that a decline in Russian refining capacity could lead to higher domestic fuel prices, increased financial strain, and potential public unease. &nbsp,

Kuzan noted that it has no effective deterrent against Ukraine’s evolving aircraft features despite finding ways to circumvent American sanctions. Russia’s war economy is eroded by each powerful strike, making it more difficult to maintain supply chains, maintain mobilization, and maintain home stability, he said.

The pressure is rising. Sergey Lavrov, the US’s ambassador to Russia, criticized Ukraine’s helicopter strikes on the Baltic Pipeline Consortium, saying:” This should reinforce the idea that Zelensky and his team had been restrained and have their hands tied.

As the US withdraws from its war work, Ukraine’s aircraft campaign is likely to grow. This is explained to the writer by a Ukrainian drone system chief who is leading&nbsp that his fleet’s main objectives are to destroy logistics centers, obliterate weapons warehouses, and relieve pressure on the front lines. With drones now able to travel up to 2, 000 kilometers ( 1, 240 miles ), Ukraine can now travel as far as Russia, an ability that is expanding.

Ukraine has prioritized rebuilding and domestic production in response to its limited supply of European long-range weapons, such as the ATACMS and Storm Shadow. By the end of 2025, Kyiv has set an ambitious goal of producing 3, 000 long-range rockets.

Vice-President Mykhailo Fedorov has increased his dedication by saying that” 2025 will get the year of the Ukrainian boat missile.”

Evidently, helicopter production is more complex and inherently more complex than missile production. While Ukraine has increased drone production, developing missiles requires specific production lines, precise engineering, and protected manufacturing facilities, all of which are challenging to do in a wartime setting.

However, despite the current war situation, Ukraine has made significant progress in producing its own arms. A number of internally produced systems are currently in use. For example, the Neptune, an anti-ship weapon, was converted into the land-launched cruise missile that, according to reports, sank Russia’s Moskva missile cruiser in 2022.

The Hrim-2 ballistic missile, which was reported to have passed tests in later 2024, and the Palianytsia, a missile-drone combination, which was released into serial production in December, both of which were reported to have passed testing in late 2024. &nbsp,

The Ukrainian military has also recently received its first batch of long-range munitions with a 700 km range, Peklo&nbsp, ( a Ukrainian word for “hell” ) missile drones, and a jet engine that can travel 700 km/h. They were created by Ukroboronprom in less than a year, are already in use in battle, and they reportedly cost less than Soviet cruise missiles.

In order to further expand its army, Kyiv unveiled the  Trembita  gentle cruise missile in February. Trembita, which is designed for long hits, is a low-cost substitute for Western weapons starting at simply$ 4, 000 per device.

Rustem Umerov, the minister of defense of Ukraine, stated that “our concern is the development of home drones and long-range weapons, including nuclear missiles,” and that domestic missile production is essential for strategic independence.

Ukraine’s strategy for developing a stronger local barrier against Russia depends on expanding its missile and drone manufacturing, with US military aid then being cut, EU help levels uncertain, and account out of reach. &nbsp,

In the decades that followed, Ukraine was also left outside NATO’s control after surrendering its nuclear arsenal under the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 ( with security assurances from Russia, the US, and the UK).

To make more money off of Moscow, Kyiv now needs to concentrate on developing a long-range strike capability. By developing its own arsenal, Ukraine can deal with external restrictions on weapons use and US military cuts to ensure it has the firepower to attack Russia on its own terms and when and where it wants to.

Ukrainian-American front-line reporter, security engineer, and activist David Kirichenko is a research associate at the Henry Jackson Society, a think tank based in London. He is <a href="https://twitter.com/dvkirichenko?lang=en” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>@DVKirichenko on Twitter/X&nbsp.

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Lessons for Asia from Trump-Zelensky showdown – Asia Times

Trump’s brusque treatment of Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office next week wasn’t really about Ukraine. The world was sent the message that US alliances are becoming more and more dependent on local political calculations. &nbsp,

The reality is clear for Asian countries that have long relied on Washington to balance Beijing, among other things; America’s corporate agreements can no longer get assumed.

The US has long positioned itself as the Indo-Pacific’s stabilizing army, but Trumpism has replaced persistence with interpersonal uncertainty. The outcome? a area exposed to unpredictable policy decisions, chaotic security guarantees, and economic reversals.

Eastern leaders must now be aware that Washington’s goals may not always be aligned with their own. The key to surviving from doubt is to take decisive action in reshaping local security on their own terms as well as to guard against uncertainty.

What does a nation in the middle of an existential conflict like Ukraine send a message to Taiwan, Japan, or South Korea if Washington is met with indifference? &nbsp,

Trump’s habit of treating alliances as economic burdens is more than just rhetoric; it also reflects his willingness to restructure, downgrade, or otherwise. &nbsp,

His prior emphasis on boosting defense spending by Tokyo and Seoul in order to avoid losing US protection served as a reversal of the policy tenet that single alliances can support American interests at the very least. &nbsp,

His recommendation that both countries should think about developing their own nuclear arsenals served as a stark reminder that the US protection awning is no longer a guarantee; it is a bargaining chip.

Asian countries may now assume that US military support may be governed by political will. This entails bolstering indigenous defenses, supporting self-sufficiency, and creating local security partnerships that operate independently of Washington. This strategic move may be viewed as the start of Japan’s development of its defence budget and South Korea’s accelerated weapon programs.

Trump’s monetary policies make no difference between supporters and enemies. The taxes against Canada and Mexico, which are America’s closest trading partners, demonstrate how economic nationalism overshadows standard connections.

The effects are likely to be serious for Asia’s export-driven economy. As susceptible to sudden price increases and regulatory changes as China, Vietnam, Taiwan, and South Korea, which are all seriously integrated into US supply chains, are also.

History suggests usually for those who hoped Trump’s extreme decoupling from China would benefit additional Asian economies. &nbsp,

His business policies are reactive rather than proper. Instead of creating choice supply chains, the goal is to force US businesses into resuming production. Asiatic countries must get ready for a world where supply chains are in flow, trade treaties are governed by presidents more than economic logic, and access to the US market is provisional.

A significant push toward regional economic integration is required as the response. Although the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ( CPTPP ) is a strong framework, it needs to be expanded and strengthened by more comprehensive intra-Asian trade agreements. &nbsp,

In order to maintain economic stability, it will be crucial to strengthen the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP ) so that it can function as an independent counterweight to Beijing and Washington.

Trust is the foundation of intelligence-sharing, and it might be lacking in the event of a Trump administration. &nbsp,

His past of disclosing labeled intelligence, putting traditional intelligence agencies before personal diplomacy, and putting institutional strategy before personal diplomacy makes reliance on US intelligence an extremely risky proposition for Asian countries.

Therefore, it is necessary for Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN nations to immediately create stronger provincial intelligence-sharing mechanisms. Beyond just defense, alliances between Japan and India, as well as between South Korea and Australia, may be expanded into planned intelligence capabilities. &nbsp,

Asia must constantly develop its own networks to reduce the risks of uncertain information flows from Washington. It cannot continue to passively receive US intelligence. The idea of holding off on to the region’s future is becoming increasingly likely to be an Asian nation’s losing plan. &nbsp,

The training is obvious: there is no longer a time for dominance.

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Find the sweet spot between isolationism and unrestrained activism – Asia Times

Several phrases in the language of American foreign policy are as misunderstood or politically charged as “isolationism.”

The term is frequently used as a social tool and brings to mind images of a retreating America that is uninterested in global problems.

The reality is more complicated, though. Some observers, for instance, claim that President Donald Trump’s arrival in the White House evokes a novel era of protectionism. Others contend that his foreign policy is more similar to” sovereigntism,” which favors national freedom and free-willed decision-making and only encourages international cooperation when it immediately serves a country’s interests.

A closer examination of isolationism’s traditional roots and social applications is required to fully understand its impact on US policy.

” Languaging alliances”

National strategic thinking has been grounded in the idea of avoiding international dilemmas since the government’s establishment. The well-known warning against “entangling alliances” by President George Washington was intended to protect the young state from Western conflicts.

This sentiment influenced US coverage throughout the 19th centuries, though no entirely. The nation expanded its impact in the Northern Hemisphere, maintained robust economic ties abroad, and sometimes took an active role in provincial affairs.

Without becoming so heavily involved in German rivalries, the US was able to grow its business and military might.

Isolationism increased after World War I. Many Americans questioned a significant level of international presence as a result of the astounding human and economic costs of the war. The United States passed Neutrality Acts in the 1930s to keep the country out of international wars, and this mood was reinforced by suspicion toward President Woodrow Wilson’s League of Nations. But, this strategy turned out to be ineffective.

That day formally launched the nation into World War II after the US became more and more involved in the European conflict years prior to the attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941, putting the country on the verge of a new isolationist path.

American strategic considering changed as the war came to an end, acknowledging that perhaps limited withdrawal was no longer possible in a globalized world.

Isolationism as a insult

Isolationism changed from a clear strategic perspective to a term of social derision in the postwar era. People who opposed military relationships like NATO or US initiatives in Korea and Vietnam were frequently dismissed as reactionaries during the Cold War, regardless of their actual plan selections.

Even when their concerns were grounded in proper caution rather than a spontaneous desire to remove from the world, this framing marginalized critics of US international engagement.

The same routine persisted into the twenty-first century. In discussions about US participation in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Ukraine, those who opposed broad military engagements were frequently labeled isolationists despite their calls for a change in foreign policy rather than openly alienation.

Many of those who urged the end of America’s “forever wars” did not support international isolation but rather the establishment of national interests over a large defense of the so-called “rules-based global order.

Isolationism is a persistent myth that equates to a complete withdrawal from the world. Protectionism in the US was never overall, even at its height. Even in times of reluctance to engage physically, industry, diplomacy, and social exchanges continued.

The prudence in foreign affairs that critics of interventionism have previously sought is avoiding unnecessary war while ensuring the protection of fundamental national interests.

Moving beyond protectionism

Restraint has gained popularity in recent years as a more specific and important foundation for US international policy. Restraint, in contrast to isolationism, does not imply a withdrawal from international affairs but somewhat encourages a more careful and proper approach.

The US should avoid unnecessary war, concentrate on key regional interests, and job with its allies to preserve stability, according to its supporters. This view acknowledges the limitations of American energy and the dangers of overextension while still holding the importance of global cooperation.

Advocates of restriction claim that readjusting US foreign policy may allow the nation to address pressing regional issues while preserving its strong global presence wherever it matters most.

Restraint provides a middle ground between alienation and uncontrolled global activism as the US considers its decades of intervention. It encourages a more intelligent and responsible approach to foreign policy that places long-term stability and national passions before assuming that one gets involved in conflicts automatically.

Moving beyond the dated and politically charged debate over isolationism would, in my opinion, lead to a more productive discussion about how the US you engage internationally in a way that is both powerful and in line with its strategic goals.

At Macalester College, Andrew Latham is a professor of social research.

The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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China’s shadow over South Korea’s elections – Asia Times

Questions are rising as South Korea grips with a growing vote regulator controversy as it looks into whether China has already ingrained itself in the organization responsible for safeguarding its politics.

The risk of foreign interference, especially from Beijing, cannot now be ignored because of systemic corruption at the National Election Commission ( NEC ), judicial ties, and growing suspicions of election fraud. South Korea’s elections and coming could soon be ruled by troops outside its borders if it doesn’t take any action.

The Board of Audit and Inspection of Korea ( BAI ) investigation into hiring practices at the NEC violated the election watchdog’s independence on February 27, 2025, according to the Constitutional Court of Korea. The auditors immediately began disclosing their earlier findings, which exposed widespread corruption and selecting irregularities within the NEC, which shocked the entire country, as soon as this ruling was made public.

In May 2023, claims surfaced that senior NEC authorities had secured work for their kids through preferential treatment. The secretary-general and assistant secretary-general, both of whom were implicated in these irresponsible methods, resigned as a result of this. A company inside assessment revealed that they had used excessive influence to safe NEC posts for their children, which was a flagrant violation of the State Public Officials Act.

1, 200 breaches dating back to 2013, according to a BAI assessment of NEC hiring techniques. The assessment exposed a society of violence in the electoral monitoring system, which included 27 people who had been implicated in corruption and abuse of power. Additionally, a June 2023 inside NEC investigation revealed 21 nepotistic hires that harmed meritocracy, most likely staff members.

Even more shockingly, the NEC acknowledged that “many of the counting team members were Chinese, but we don’t realize how many of them worked as counting team nationwide.” Given China’s growing effect in South Korea, that entrance sparked more worries.

A startling assault on accountability

The NEC proposed changes to the Public Official Election Act to significant penalties for those who question election integrity rather than address these issues with responsibilities. This obvious attempt to silence genuine investigation suggests that the payment is more focused on preventing investigation than ensuring transparency.

The NEC’s persistent opposition to outside audits just raises questions. Even though the payment finally granted the auditors ‘ investigation into its hiring practices in 2023 despite growing public force, its fear reveals an institution unwilling to face real scrutiny. What claims do South Koreans have that their votes are counted very if election officials refuse to do so?

Election scams: Is it a theory or a reality?

The NEC admitted to following a” custom of hiring relatives” to guarantee” reputable” people after the Constitutional Court’s decision on February 27.

But why is it reliable? Is it just inside favoritism or something much more ominous?

Decades ago, South Korean vote fraud allegations were dismissed as conspiracy theories. Important political figures have yet to make public problems, including former members of the National Assembly and even a former prime minister.

One truth is undisputed: There is now enough evidence for a complete, independent investigation, despite South Koreans also being divided on whether election fraud has really occurred. These issues cannot be ignored now that there is mounting proof of organisational corruption within the NEC.

Most importantly, the prosecution of President Yoon’s impeachment trial centres on his justification for using military force to investigate election scam:

  1. He sent more troops to the National Assembly than the NEC.
  2. His first goal was the NEC, no the National Assembly.

Despite these steps, the Constitutional Court has consistently rejected Yoon’s calls to investigate scams, raising doubts.

A skewed system and administrative conflicts of interest

When we realize the close knitness between the NEC and the courts, the Constitutional Court’s unwillingness to address this issue is understandable.

According to Article 114 of the Korean Constitution, the NEC chair is typically a sitting Supreme Court justice. Additionally, NEC branches are frequently led by great judge or district court judges at local and regional levels, which creates administrative clash that critics claim compromises judicial independence.

This arrangement creates an alarming dilemma: election management also involves the judges who decide decisions in disputes over elections. Four of the eight present Constitutional Court justices were past NEC heads. These courts had been incriminating themselves if vote fraud were to be investigated and proven, which would create a basic conflict of interest that prevents important responsibilities.

Imagine a sporting activity where one group determines the outcome and the referee was a former participant of the same team. The umpire would have no excuses if match-fixing was to be the subject of an investigation.

China’s darkness is a big object.

While South Korea’s votes are one of the most troubling examples of corruption within the NEC, China’s expanding impact functions are a bigger risk. China has long engaged in cross war, influencing international institutions through social, economic, and cultural invasion. China’s approaches include:

    Through the Northeast Project, Beijing has attempted to reclaim Korea’s traditional identity as a part of China.

  1. Cultural invasion: South Korea was the first nation to house a Confucius Institute that propagated pro-China ideas.
  2. Improper authorities activities: In Seoul, a secret Chinese police station was established to track down and arrest rebels.
  3. Visa-free passage: In November of this year, China formally granted South Koreans visa-free entry, and it is now pressuring South Korea to share for Taiwanese immigrants, which could lead to more sophisticated influencing businesses.
  4. Influence in the media: To influence public opinion, Tencent, a major Chinese IT company, purchased a 400 billion won ($ 366 ) stake in the JTBC cable network in South Korea.

And these are just a couple illustrations. Why wouldn’t China try to influence elections if it is ready to manipulate background, media, and open institutions?

The most effective approach would be to confirm that pro-China politicians win elections if China is determined to push South Korea into its sphere of influence. What better way to accomplish that than by breaking into and compromising the NEC, the body that organized those votes?

The global community has wake up.

This is a global priority, not just one specific issue affecting South Korea. China’s methods are not exclusive to South Korea; they have been employed in countries like Taiwan and the US as well. The demise of political institutions is a gradual but deliberate process. South Korea may be yet another case investigation in China’s playbook of influence and control if it is left unchecked.

The global community ought to require:

  1. A thorough, impartial investigation into the NEC in South Korea that is free of criminal and political interference.
  2. To reduce foreign meddling and secret deals, transparency in election oversight is required.
  3. Stronger international assistance to combat China’s global hybrid war strategies.

If political societies don’t take action right away, they could lose their independence and their primaries. The crisis in South Korea should serve as a clear reminder to all countries: Corruption and foreign disturbance do more harm than simply elections. They also do harm democracy.

Hanjin Lew&nbsp is a former foreign spokesman for North Korean traditional parties and a political commentator with an emphasis on East Asian matters.

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Putin the real winner of Trump-Zelensky blowup – Asia Times

In the Oval Office, a leader simply disrespected America. It wasn’t Zelensky”. The editorial staff at the Kyiv Independent, one of Ukraine’s top media outlets, came to that conclusion regarding a remarkable incident that occurred on February 28, 2025.

The “quarrel at the highest stage” was described as a political failure by the online magazine German Pravda, but it is still not” a catastrophe.”

Some Ukrainians I have spoken to since the turbulent face, during which Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy was constantly hectored by US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance, have certainly characterized it as devastating for the region. However, for some, the affair has been tempered by accepting it as the new reality in US-Ukraine relationships.

Zelensky has received some inquiries, some of which have been directed at him. Did he consent to being duped into making an argument with potential effects? Should he have remained passive? However, the treatment of Ukraine’s chairman by Trump and Vance has largely had an ostensible unexpected side: It has united a disgruntled Ukrainian populace.

There hasn’t been this degree of recruitment and nationalism in three years, as one companion who has been displaced by war from the now held capital of Nova Kakhovka told me.

This unification is seen in the response across Ukraine’s political break. Petro Poroshenko, the leader of the opposition party Western Solidarity and a frequently outspoken Zelensky foe, stated on March 1 that he will not condemn Zelensky’s White House performance.

In the videos posted on X, he said,” The country needs unity, not censure.”

Interestingly, even those Russians who did not vote for Zelensky have told me that activities in the Oval Office made them feel more sympathetic of Zelensky.

However, the shifting attitude of the US administration is giving off a sense of authenticity. Many Ukrainians have lower expectations that the White House can bring about a rapid and enduring peace because of Trump’s expressed confidence in Vladimir Putin and his cordial remarks about Russian aggression, including his refusal to acknowledge Russian combat crimes.

However, as Inna Sovsun of the opposition party Holos noted,” It was difficult to watch a leader who’s been a victim of Russian aggression being attacked by the leader of the free world”.

Setting the bar high

Following weeks of increasingly severe Trump language toward Zelensky, the US and Ukrainian officials met on February 28.

Since being inaugurated on January 20, Trump has called the Ukrainian president a “dictator without primaries”, claiming – wrong – that Zelensky had 4 % approval ratings. He further claimed that Ukraine was responsible for the Russian troops ‘ war in February 2022.

According to the most recent polls, these remarks had now caused Ukrainians to rally behind Zelensky, who has a respectable 63 % approval score.

The unpleasant scenes in the Oval Office could discover a more gathering around Zelensky, especially if he can properly identify his position in the dispute as that of defender of his people. Doing so would serve to stifle growing public animosity over the new US government’s evident unwillingness to appreciate Russian war crimes.

A white building has American and Ukraine flags draped on either side of an entrance.
On March 2, 2025, in Kyiv, Ukraine, big US and Ukrainian flags hang on the Kyiv River Port tower. Photo: Pierre Crom/Getty Images via The Talk

The US and Russia voted against a UN resolution that condemned Russian aggression in the days leading up to the Zelensky-Trump meet, as well as the language of a document G7 statement that portrayed Russia as the offender.

Zelensky’s criticism to Trump’s claim that Russian President Putin is a man of his word sparked the ominous markets in the Oval Office, which appeared to have been sparked by Zelensky’s furious markets.

That rejection to visit out Putin– who faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court – angers Russians who have suffered Soviet anger for three times. Zelensky brought that message home by putting images of tortured and abused Russian prisoners of war back in the Oval Office for Trump and other people.

65 % of Ukrainian polled early in the fight said their biggest regret would be “impunity for Russian acts,” according to Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Nobel Prize winner for human rights in a speech on February 17.

Three years of conflict will have only hardened that mood – but the U. S., under Trump’s management, looks increasingly willing to allow Putin off the wire.

Since February 28, a significant portion of Russian media has depicted the president as a keeper of both his country and the reality, both customarily pro and anti-Zelensky.

He was forced into the difficult position of having to set the record straight and issue false statements in real time in front of the relatively hostile head of the world’s largest economy, whose aid has been important in Ukraine’s effort to fight the invading Soviet army.

To some, keeping silent would have been tantamount to capitulation, but others have questioned Zelenskyy’s approach.

Some Ukrainians have suggested that Zelenskyy’s emotional tone in the Oval Office was unfavorable despite still claiming that his key message was accurate.

Given that the stakes were so high, opposition lawmaker Oleskiy Goncharenko suggested in an interview with CNN that Zelenskyy should have been more diplomatic and” calm.”

Meanwhile, there were also those who questioned the decision to hold such an important conversation in front of the press, especially without the use of professional translators who potentially could have tamped down the rhetoric and slowed the pace of the exchange.

Some things may “have been lost in translation,” according to Tymofiy Mylovanov, the adviser to the president’s office and head of the Kyiv School of Economics.

Where do Zelensky’s relationship with the US and Ukraine with the Oval Office dispute end?

In the aftermath of the dispute, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham– who has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine – suggested that Zelensky should resign, the implications being that his relationship with Trump was so broken that his presence is now counterproductive for Ukraine’s priorities.

It is a phrase that hasn’t had a positive impact in Ukraine. Holos’s leader, Kira Rudyk, responded that it was up to the Ukrainian people to choose their leadership and future.

Moreover, to many Ukrainians the barrier to harmonious Ukraine-US relations is not Zelensky, but Trump.

In a social media post, Mustafa Nayyem, a member of Zelensky’s government, claimed that the Trump administration “does not just dislike Ukraine.” This is what many Ukrainians are aware of. They despise us. The” contempt is deeper than indifference, and more dangerous than outright hostility”, he added in the February 28 post.

unintentional repressurization

Serhii Sternenko, a Ukrainian activist lawyer and blogger, described the Oval Office spat as an intentional provocation on behalf of Trump to discredit Ukraine as an unreliable partner in the peace negotiations.

Sternenko is not the only one who has weighed in. According to journalist Vitaly Portnikov, the conflict was caused by Trump’s untimely commitment to end the war as soon as the reality emerged that perhaps Russia does not want to make any concessions.

The thinking here is Putin has shown no indication that he will bend on his war goals, so for Trump, framing Zelensky as” not ready for peace” allows the US president to walk away from his campaign promise without accepting defeat.

Three men embrace in a green room.
On March 2, 2025, Zelenskyy and Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, meet as friends. Justin Tallis – WPA Pool/Getty Images via The Conversation

Beyond the headlines and initial reactions from Ukrainian politicians, journalists and civilians, there is also another sentiment that is emerging: resignation to the new reality.

Most Ukrainians want an end to the war, but in a way that safeguards their sovereignty and ensures future security. That was previously shared by the occupiers of the White House.

It is becoming increasingly clear to many Ukrainians that, in regards to the war in Ukraine, the US will play a different role under Trump– meaning Ukraine will increasingly look to European leaders as primary partners.

The outcome of the Oval Office conflict was best summarized by Goncharenko, the opposition member of the Ukrainian Parliament, as Goncharenko might have put it best:” Putin was the winner, not Ukraine, the United States, who won.”

Lena Surzhko Harned is a political science associate professor at Penn State.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the text of the article.

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