Alibaba making China tech investible again – Asia Times

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Alibaba Group’s headline-grabbing protest tops off what’s been an extraordinary month for Chinese tech companies.

In late January, the sudden appearance of made-in-China synthetic knowledge game DeepSeek pulled the rug out from under Wall Street’s” Trump business” group. Bettors predicted that US stocks would explode as a result of the US President Donald Trump’s plans.

Trump’s eagerness for AI, which he and his patron Elon Musk, contributed to the excitement. Trump punctuated the place on January 21, when he stood shoulder-to-shoulder with OpenAI’s Sam&nbsp, Altman, Oracle’s Larry Ellison and SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son at the White House to light a&nbsp, US$ 500 billion &nbsp, Al network project.

Weeks later, it seemed like old hat as DeepSeek’s claim caught world markets off guard. Its cost-effective AI model using less advanced chips precipitated a nearly$ 600 billion selloff in&nbsp, Nvidia’s shares&nbsp, alone — history’s biggest corporate loss in market capitalization.

Then Alibaba is again on the international scene with an passion that’s even caught global investors off-guard. It includes a large force into Al, in which Alibaba is investing confidently.

The business Jack Ma co-founded claims to have invested more than$ 53 billion in data centers and other AI system projects. Apple, nevertheless, is incorporating Alibaba’s Artificial services in handsets sold in China.

But Alibaba’s march might have arms for an even bigger purpose: Xi Jinping’s selection to, in the words of scholar Stephen Jen, “make Chinese equities investible again”, starting with software platforms.

Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Asset Management, says that “in some ways, this is a call for a extended bounce-back in a long-depressed and unhappy business. However, there are now many more reasons to get good than bad about Chinese stocks and China in general.

After Trump called for greater scrutiny of international companies listed in the US, Alibaba’s wave hit a speedbump on Tuesday, along with Taiwanese technology companies in general.

But from Jen’s perspective, Chinese stocks will remain on roll for reasons including: regulation easing, signs the property sector is ultimately bottoming to support better consumer sentiment, the resilience of Chinese bonds and the yuan, a serious misjudging of China’s manufacturing and industrial prowess, low valuations, and signs the world remains thin Chinese assets.

Xi’s meeting with Ma and other mainland tech founders last week helped, too. Following Xi’s crackdowns, which started with Ma’s fintech tycoon Ant Group, China’s tech scene has been in a state of corporate limbo since late 2020.

Ostensibly, Ant’s planned$ 37 billion listing was scrapped after Ma criticized Beijing, suggesting policymakers don’t understand technology. Ma alleged that regulators were stifling innovation and that banks were having a “pawnshop mentality” in a speech delivered in Shanghai.

First, Ant’s initial public offering was pulled. At the time, it would’ve been history’s biggest. Next, Xi’s financial regulator put under a microscope a who ‘s-who of tech giants: search engine Baidu, &nbsp, ride-hailing giant&nbsp, Didi Global, e-commerce platform JD.com, &nbsp, food-delivery Meituan and gaming colossus Tencent, among others.

Ma effectively entered a political exile. Last week, when Xi invited Ma and other tech billionaires to a gathering that would put Chinese technology back in the ascendancy, that appeared to change. Ma sitting in the front row and Xi shaking his hand caused investors to sift into mainland shares with an unprecedented enthusiasm.

The scene suggested that “one of the world’s greatest living entrepreneurs” is “back into the good&nbsp, graces”, says analyst Bill&nbsp, Bishop, who writes the Sinocism newsletter. Bottom line, he says, “it’s an encouraging signal for private businesses”.

Daiwa analyst Patrick Pan notes that “from a long-term perspective, we turn more positive on the outlook for the China stock market”. China’s recent tech breakthroughs and pro-business pivot, he says, are “game changers for China stock prices”.

In March 2023, Alibaba unveiled the&nbsp, biggest restructuring &nbsp, in its 26-year history, splitting into six units and exploring fundraising or listings for most of them. At the time, Alibaba said the strategy is “designed to unlock shareholder value and foster market competitiveness”.

The six units included: domestic e-tailing, international e-commerce, cloud computing, local services, logistics and media and entertainment.

The market is the best litmus test, according to former Alabaster CEO Daniel Zhang, who remarked two years ago, and each business group and company can launch independent fundraising and IPOs when they are ready.

The enterprise was bigger than Alibaba, though. It served as a case study of sorts for China Inc. as Xi’s regulators attempted to mitigate risks and halt monopolistic tendencies among tech giants.

Given that Xi and Premier Li Qiang both claim that they want private companies to create more jobs and boost a troubled economy, the situation is quite a balance.

Ma’s Alibaba was an obvious place to start. It has long been a global representation of China’s tech goals and a symptom of Beijing’s tolerance for tech billionaires spreading their wings.

Now, after years of uncertainty, says Daniel Ives, analyst at Wedbush Securities, Alibaba just “delivered an inflection point quarter”, led by a stronger-than-expected cloud business and an expanding AI push that could represent the “next gear of growth”.

AI is” the kind of opportunity for industry transformation that only comes around only once every few decades,” as current Alibaba CEO Eddie Wu put it last week.

Wu added that” when it comes to Alibaba’s AI strategy, we aim to continue developing models that extend the boundaries of intelligence” and that AI may eventually “have a significant influence on or even replace 50 % of global GDP”

When it comes to cheap Chinese valuations, Alibaba could be Exhibit A. While some profit-taking might happen, the company is still trading between 35 % to 40 % below past highs.

However, Alibaba is under increasing pressure to act in order to validate investors ‘ bullishness.

According to HSBC Holdings analyst Charlene Liu, “fundamentals will have to be back in focus” in order to increase stock prices. Alibaba shows” a clear strategy to monetize AI and accelerate cloud revenue growth and margin improvement,” as evidenced by increasing its e-commerce market share.

The real onus, though, is on Team Xi to convince global investors broadly that China’s “uninvestable” days are over for good. &nbsp,

Over the last dozen years of Xi’s leadership, Beijing has too often slow-walked moves to strengthen capital markets, reduce opacity, scale back the role of state-owned enterprises, build a globally trusted credit rating system and increase regulatory certainty.

Clearly, the return of Hangzhou-based Alibaba to favor in Communist Party circles may be its own inflection point.

Recently,” Hangzhou’s innovation model has been lauded for fostering numerous superstar technology startups, dubbed the’ Six Little Dragons’ in markets”, says Carlos Casanova, economist at Union Bancaire Privée.

This, Casanova says,” suggests China may be preparing to adopt a Hangzhou-style model that promotes both hard technology and high value-added software and services in its upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, expected to be unveiled this October. Although we won’t know for certain until the draft is made public, it appears that China is gearing up for a strategic turn in 2026.

However, it will be simpler to persuade global funds that the multi-year tech inquisition is over. Although handshakes and rhetoric are acceptable, it is more crucial to end the regulatory chaos that has persisted recently.

According to Jeremy Mark, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council,” this will take much more than optimistic pronouncements to restore confidence after months of undelivered promises.” Beijing has long sought out foreign institutional investors, but this uncertainty is unsettling.

The volatility of recent months, though”, has given Chinese officialdom greater incentive to pursue a tightly regulated, less volatile stock market — one in which the likes of insurance companies, pension funds, and other government-run behemoths hold sway over individual investors,” Mark says.

The order of the day, Mark adds”, will be to encourage long-term investments in large companies by offering bigger dividends, share buybacks, and — ideally—steady profit growth. ” &nbsp,

Of course, some people believe that concerns about market structure are overshadowed by the attractiveness of mainland valuations. &nbsp,

” Since January, the rally in the Chinese tech sector has been stunning, though the overall A-Shares market has not risen much,” says Jen of Eurizon SLJ.

Companies outside the tech industries are trying to do the same, just as Chinese tech companies are actively looking for ways to harness the power of rapidly advancing AI. Chinese companies are generally very eager to adopt the best technologies, especially if they are cheap.”

When the” Magic Seven” is so expensive, Jen adds,” Chinese equities ought to be in good standing if the collective’I Q’ of Chinese manufacturing can keep up with the best in the world.” ” The seven companies mentioned here are Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, Amazon.com, Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Tesla.

The argument isn’t always clear-cut. As mainland stocks surged last week, so did Nvidia’s.

By the start of this week, the California-based company had recovered roughly 90 % of its market valuation losses. It’s a reminder that the AI boom is no particular nation’s to lose. And that Beijing’s desire to keep control might conflict with the success of disruptors like DeepSeek.

According to Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya,” The stock may be volatile following results, but we anticipate positive momentum to resume as investors look forward to Nvidia’s leading new product pipeline and total addressable market expansion into robotics and quantum technologies at the upcoming]Nvidia ] conference.”

The macroeconomic backdrop matters, of course. The upcoming Trump trade war and the high chances that they will cause inflation are still a source of uncertainty for the world.

” The upbeat mood seen among US businesses at the start of the year has evaporated, replaced with a darkening picture of heightened uncertainty, stalling business activity and rising prices,” says Chris Williamson, chief economist at S&amp, P Global Market Intelligence.

Companies, Williamson says”, report widespread concerns about the impact of federal government policies, ranging from spending cuts to tariffs and geopolitical developments. He states that the outlook for the rest of 2025 has shifted to “one of the gloomiest outlooks since the pandemic.”

Despite this, there is growing hope that Team Xi’s efforts to batten down the hatches and its exportation to global South nations will lessen its vulnerability to Trump’s bullying than many people had predicted.

China Inc. is also demonstrating that it has some serious game on playing fields Trump World takes for granted, and not just AI. Chinese biotech companies are exhibiting signs of developing drugs more quickly and affordably than their American competitors.

At the same time as Trump is empowering Tesla billionaire Musk to launch a disaster against America’s scientific research institutions, this includes cancer drugs.

In the case of Alibaba, though, investors are hoping Beijing’s multi-year battle with Chinese tech is officially over. To validate this optimism, Team Xi will need to make sure changes are being made so that the big meeting internet platform from last week is more than just a photo op.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Philippines: EDSA, Marcos Jr and the risk of forgetting – Asia Times

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Every February 25, the Philippines commemorates the EDSA People Power Revolution—an function that toppled a dictator, restored politics and became a worldwide mark of quiet weight.

In 1986, thousands of Filipinos from all walks of life took to the streets, driven by a shared desire for shift. They came armed not with arms but with confidence, prayer and perseverance.

Clad in golden bows and carrying necklaces, they faced down tank and troops, their chants echoing through the money. The action was a testament to the resolve of regular people to free their country from autocratic rule.

This trend did more than just reduce a tyrant; it also established democratic institutions, reinstated free votes, and promised a government that was accountable to the people.

Beyond the Philippines, it sent a strong message that could help other countries fight tyranny. The uprising’s violent character established its place in history, demonstrating that a change may be achieved without using force.

However, as the centuries passed, the strong energy that again filled EDSA has waned. The roads that were once crowded with activists have become less noisy. The annual ceremonies persist, but with a visible reduction in cooperation.

Although the People Power Monument is still in use, its supporters are declining as a result. The recollection continues, but it has lost much of the fervor and intensity that were present in the period immediately following the trend.

The irony of the EDSA memorial has since become unfathomable: the state that recognizes it is now led by the deceased family.

President Ferdinand” Bongbong” Marcos Jr., the son of the late tyrant Ferdinand Marcos Sr., is in charge of a country that previously rejected his father’s rule in an unprecedented show of social power.

Since Marcos Jr. became president in 2022, his administration has veered cautiously to the EDSA memorial. The current government has chosen to follow a more subdued strategy than previous administrations, which included holding huge events, making strong statements, and yet holding wreath-laying rites at the People Power Monument.

Official claims acknowledge the time, but they lean on topics of “unity” and “moving ahead”, avoiding direct references to the republic’s value.

In fact, Marcos Jr. actually removed February 25 from the roster of national holidays in 2023.

Proclamation No. Conspicuously omitting EDSA People Power as a unique non-working trip, 368, which downgraded its significance in the regional calendar.

Despite the negative people effect, it remains the same this time, as Proclamation No. 727 declares EDSA a unique working vacation. This move farther signaled the president’s silent effort to push EDSA into the history of national consciousness.

This shift in tone is not sudden. It reflects the difficult balance of a Marcos president, which allows acknowledging EDSA without supporting its fundamental message.

After all, to fully accept the significance of EDSA would mean to forgive the Marcos family’s history mistakes, which they have consistently dismissed or blatantly denied.

A government that regards EDSA as a traditional event but does not reconfirm its aspirations is a paradox that defines the current political climate.

But is simple confirmation enough? Or does reducing EDSA to a program, depoliticized event diminish its real meaning?

Eroding EDSA’s tradition

Celebrations are more than just ceremonies, they are functions of social memory. They affirm the principles that a country maintains and serve as reminders of lost fights for its citizens. But over time, the way a nation remembers an event is change—either through continuous indifference or deliberate sophistry.

In the case of EDSA, both causes seem to be at enjoy. On one hand, there is the normal passage of time. The revolution took place roughly four decades ago, and many of those who took part in it have passed away.

For younger generations who did not experience the tyranny, EDSA is not a specific experience but a traditional account, which is extremely up in the modern era.

On the other hand, there is the effective rewriting of history. The Marcos family has spent years attempting to change consumer perception through social media, social effect, and even legal actions.

The dictatorship’s years in power, when widely regarded as a time of persecution and financial mismanagement, are then painted by some as a “golden age”. Traditional facts —such as human rights abuses, fraud, and cronyism—are dismissed as mere social problems.

The deterioration of EDSA’s tradition is most visible in public opinion. A growing number of Filipinos, especially the youth, show frustration with the revolution.

Some see it as a failed claim, pointing to frequent poverty, corruption, and injustice. People believe it was an exaggerated function, exaggerated by its recipients. This despair has made a fertile environment for reactionary narratives to emerge, allowing the Marcos family to regain control through political means.

Does it matter if the social remembrance of EDSA disappears? If Filipinos little longer see it as related, does that reduce its value?

The solution lies in what EDSA absolutely represented. It was never really about toppling a dictator—it was about restoring democratic organizations, ensuring responsibilities, and preventing the transfer of autocratic rule.

To ignore EDSA, or to decrease it to an annual note, is to undermine the pretty safeguards it fought to restore.

Politics is no self-sustaining. It requires attention, active involvement, and a devotion to truth. When background is forgotten or distorted, the same faults become easier to repeat.

Current and upcoming abuses become more simple to defend when history abuses are dismissed as misconceptions. The EDSA’s rules are being broken, but today’s failure to uphold them puts the future in danger.

What EDSA may suggest currently

A Marcos administration that oversees EDSA anniversary celebrations should not just be an unpleasant contradiction; it should also be a time for reflection. If the trend is to be related, it must be understood beyond its metaphor.

EDSA was never a perfect trend. It did never miraculously resolve the most pressing issues in Spanish society, nor did it maintain long-term reform.

However, it demonstrated that social activity has energy. It showed that ordinary individuals, when united, you hold the powerful responsible. That session may be learned over time.

Instead of being seen as a locked chapter in history, EDSA must be seen as an empty struggle. The battle for transparency, good governance and human rights did not end in 1986 —it continues today.

And in a social environment where the majority of the country’s energy is still largely in the hands of the elite, where record is constantly rewritten to fit the ruling course, and where democracy is constantly under scrutiny, EDSA serves as a reminder that the people still have the authority to determine the future of their country.

In a time when people want to ignore EDSA, remembering it is more than just marking a day on the calendar; it is also important to protect the lessons from history from intentional erasure.

The reduction of standard commemorations, the fall of reactionary narratives and the public’s growing separation from EDSA all stage to a dangerous reality: when traditional truths are left undefended, they become pliable to the whims of those in power.

As the storage of EDSA fades in the regional consciousness, we may ask—what happens when a nation chooses to ignore its own revolution? And more importantly, who benefits when we do?

The Marcos administration must do more than just acknowledge EDSA on the calendar if it truly respects it. It must uphold the democratic principles that EDSA stood for: truth, accountability and justice. Anything less would make every February 25 hollow ceremonial, one that honors a cause without actually honoring it.

Chalize Penaflor, 24, is a policy researcher, intersectional feminist and human rights advocate. She received her BA in sociology from the University of the Philippines and concentrates on legislative research, policy analysis, and program evaluation in the public sector.

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Kim crackdown puts a spotlight on North Korea’s drinking culture – Asia Times

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Kim Jong-un, the head of the North Korean Workers Party, late presided over a meeting of the Korean Worker’s Party Secretariat, which oversees the party’s policy of proper behavior and ensures that party members follow it. The group’s standard newspapers, Rodong Sinmun, reported that this meeting was convened to target several shortcomings in discipline ( tangnaegyuryurŭlranp’ok )– including binge eating by some celebration officials.

The conference was particularly concerned with two party control violations. Party officials in Onchon County ( about 60km west of the capital, Pyongyang ) were accused of making inadequate preparation for their local party meeting, which – as a result – was held in a “grossly formalistic]hyŏngshikchŏkŭro] way”.

In the early days of North Korea’s social record, there were accusations of formalism related to overly horsing foreign governments and their socialism strategies. However, when used in reference to Onchon County officers, it meant going through the motions and never displaying much genuine enthusiasm and commitment to the democratic process.

This lack of intellectual zeal was apparently reinforced when 40 of the officials engaged in a “drinking rampage,” an action that was viewed as directly in opposition to the group’s policy of upholding discipline. In the English-language edition of the Rodong Sinmun media post, these officers were branded as a” crooked group”. But in the Korean-language version, they were more colorfully condemned as a “rotten group” ( ssŏgŏppajin muri ) and an “arrogant rabble” ( pangjahan ohapchijol ).

Kim responded by saying that the actions of the party leaders were a “political and social” violence that had harmed the foundations of the Korean Workers Party. In consequence, the Onchon County group committee was disbanded, and the 40 police officers involved in the obscene merriment were designated for punishment. Although no word was given as to the kind of punishment the officials would be subject to, it is likely that they will at the very least be subject to intellectual re-education.

In North Korea, accusations of intoxication and alcohol as a means of demonizing and purging group officials are not new. In December 1955, Pak Il U ( then the minister of post and telecommunications ) was accused of leading a depraved lifestyle and being an alcoholic. This was done to tarnish his reputation, support his ejection from the Korean Worker’s Party and imprison him.

It isn’t improper to ingest in North Korea. Beer has a solid cultural presence. It is used on official events to honor ceremonies, ease grief during burial, and remember the birthdays of leaders.

The nation has actually promoted its adult products on postage stamps in recent years. The government issued a mark in 2022 showcasing three Taedonggang beer varieties, which have been produced since 2002 at a state-owned local brewery. The beverage is named after the Taedong valley, which runs through Pyongyang.

The next year, a mark depicting Pyongyang Soju was issued. Since 2009, this grain and corn-based beverage has been produced at a state-owned shop. With an alcohol content of 25 %, North Korea’s soju has a higher alcohol content than South Korea’s best-selling version, Jinro Chamisul Original ( 20.1 % ABV ).

Pyongyang Soju was named the nation’s beverage in June 2015, underscoring that both drinking and modern society have a significant place in North Korea’s cultural heritage.

That’s not to say that North Koreans are heavy drinking when compared to their southern neighbors, who, according to pre-Covidstatistics, consume about twice as many alcohol. A gallon of beer costs roughly the same as a pound of corn in North Korea, which might explain this.

vices in politics and morality

But excessive eating is regarded, as Kim stated, as a political and moral evil. Beer and another medication taking, such as meth use, is bound up with mental illness as a mark of depravity.

Drinking, smoking, and using marijuana frequently serve as coping mechanisms for people living in North Korea because the quality of mental health care that is essentially nonexistent ( mental health conditions are correlated with ideological issues ).

In recent years, North Korea has cracked down more firmly on what is seen as the “ideological and social poison” of culture. For instance, it has been reported that people have been given lengthy prison sentences or even death sentences for consuming and/or disseminating foreign press, using international slang term, or sporting unusual clothing and hairstyles.

Those caught selling hot dogs and divorcing people have apparently been the most recent instances of people engaging in anti-state behavior and serving time in prison. The communist theory of communism, which places team needs before personal desires, is opposed by division.

Thus, the government’s criticism of excessive alcohol consumption can be seen as yet another example of North Korea’s crackdown on personal behavior that is perceived as incompatible with the ideals of how people in this communist society should act.

At the University of Central Lancashire, David Hall is a PhD participant in Asian research.

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Musk is a Trump administration outlier: a China dove among hawks – Asia Times

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Elon Musk holds an enormous effect in the fresh Trump presidency.

The richest man in the world has essentially unrestricted political power by cutting and redesigning the federal government as he sees fit as head of his Department of Government Productivity, or DOGE. And it has fast become apparent that he has a strong opinion of problems beyond that quick.

On one matter, while, Musk stands significantly apart from others in the circle of advisers and consultants around Trump: China. Musk is a stunning outlier in contrast to the numerous hawks calling for a tough-line policy toward China in the new Trump cupboard.

As an expert on China-US ties who has monitored Musk’s opinions on China, I don’t consider his long record of espousing pro-Chinese attitude surprising, given that he has sought throughout to get a firm hold in the country.

Given Musk’s position in the Trump presidency at a time when one of America’s biggest challenges is how to maintain its relationship with Beijing, those dilemmas are for attention.

Musk’s excursion to the East

For decades, Musk has had important business interests in China, with Tesla’s Shanghai shop, Tesla Giga Shanghai, playing a vital part in the company’s global businesses.

Importantly, Tesla was the first international manufacturer to be given the right to conduct business in China without a local partner as a result of a change in ownership rules. With the assistance of US$ 1.4 billion in funding from Chinese state-owned businesses, which were granted at suitable interest rates, the Shanghai stock was constructed.

Tesla received a lower corporate tax rate of 15 %, or 10 percentage points lower than the standard rate, between 2019 and 2023 from the Shanghai government.

The cost benefits of producing in Shanghai, which include lower manufacturing and labor costs, have more cemented Tesla’s rely on the Chinese business.

Given that Musk’s financial position is generally based on Tesla property, his financial position is significantly dependent on the bank’s fortunes in China, which may make any possible breakaway from the nation both financially and carefully difficult.

Tesla’s continuing investment in China underscores this interdependence. On February 11, 2025, the company opened its next factory in Shanghai— a$ 200 million herb that is set to make 10, 000 megapack batteries periodically. It’s the bank’s second megapack power shop outside the US..

This funding deepens Tesla’s presence in China amid a fresh wave of US-China trade tensions. China responded to Beijing’s retribution with tariffs on British fuel, liquefied natural gas, agricultural products, and crude oil on February 1, when the Trump presidency imposed a 10 % tax on Chinese exports.

A China lover

How much of Musk’s economic ties to China may actually have an impact on the Trump administration’s plan toward Beijing is still a mystery. However, Musk’s longer background of pro-China notes suggests the way the management should go.

During his visit to Beijing in April 2024, Musk praised the land, noting moreover:” I also have a lot of fans in China– also, the experience is mutual”.

His admiration may be influenced in part by his opinions of Chinese business and labor practices. In keeping with Musk’s criticism of American workers as lazy and facing US labor law disputes, while also applauding Chinese workers for “burning the 3 am oil” in a labor-heavy labor environment.

Musk has also praised China’s infrastructure and high-speed rail system in numerous posts on the social media platform X, which he owns, praised its space program, praised its leadership in global green energy initiatives, and urged his followers to visit the nation.

Despite the assertions of a sizable portion of the West that reducing US dependence on China is necessary in light of rising geopolitical tensions, Musk has also opposed US efforts to decouple from China. He has also described the nations ‘ economies as” conjoined twins.”

Musk has compared Taiwan to Hawaii, arguing that it is a fundamental part of China, and that the US Pacific Fleet has used force to thwart reunification of mainland China. This is the most dangerous flashpoint in US-China relations.

Further, Musk suggested that China could allow Taiwan to become a special administrative zone in the same way that Hong Kong would.

His remarks were shared and welcomed by China’s then-ambassador to the US, who, in a post on X, emphasized China’s so-called peaceful unification strategy and advocated for the “one country, two systems” model.

Trump’s back-channel envoy?

The big question going forward is how Musk’s financial stakes in, and stated admiration for, China will translate into attempts to influence the US administration’s China policy, particularly given Musk’s unconventional advisory role and the strong faction of anti-China hawks in Trumpworld.

Given Musk’s policy toward China, it’s difficult to see how he doesn’t try to influence the president to encourage a little more sanity in relations with Beijing.

If such counsel were heeded, it’s easy to envision Musk leveraging his deep ties to China, particularly his close personal relationship with China’s current second-ranking official, Premier Li Qiang, who was the Shanghai party chief when Tesla’s factory was built. In this scenario, Donald Trump might turn to Musk as a diplomatic backchannel to ease US-China tensions and promote bilateral cooperation when necessary.

To this point, it was, perhaps, telling that it was Musk who met with China President Xi Jinping’s envoy to Trump’s inauguration, Vice President Han Zheng, on the eve of the event.

However, it’s not at all certain whether Trump wants Musk to play that diplomatic role or whether other voices won’t win in favor of Beijing. In his first term, Trump launched an unprecedented trade war and tech blockade against China, fundamentally changing US-China relations and urging the US to adopt a “bipartisan consensus” to combat Beijing, which has existed for some time.

Trump’s tariff moves and second-term picks for key positions in trade and commerce, such as Jamieson Greer and Peter Navarro, all point to a strong commitment to decoupling from China.

Furthermore, Musk’s business interests and personal wealth tied to China could leave him vulnerable to Chinese influence. China could use Musk’s reliance on the Chinese market as a bargaining chip to pressure Trump into making concessions on issues of significant strategic importance to Beijing by tapping into his close ties with Trump.

China has a history of coercing foreign businesses into making compromises on matters important to its own national interests. For instance, Apple removed virtual private network apps from its app store in China at the government’s request.

Tesla could face comparable pressure if Beijing uses Musk as a cudgel to influence policy in the Trump administration in the future. Notably, as the head of DOGE, with access to sensitive data from multiple agencies, Musk could find himself caught between US security scrutiny and China’s strategic targeting.

It’s possible that Musk’s pro-China sentiments will turn into attempts to influence government policy if he maintains the influence he currently has with Trump. Even if this turns out to be the case, whether those efforts succeed will depend on the president and his other advisers, many of whom are pursuing an aggressive front against Beijing and are likely to see Musk as a hinder rather than ally in the fight to come.

Linggong Kong is a PhD Student at Auburn University.

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Beirut hopes Hezbollah’s weakness enables ending persistent warfare – Asia Times

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The government of Lebanon, eagerly seeking an exit from decades of on-and-off warfare, is placing hopes in the elimination of a single word that had been included in government action programs for two decades. The word is “resistance.”

The word had been formally paired with “army” and “people” in government statements to guide foreign and domestic policy. It had camouflaged the  acceptance by chronically weak governments of frequent freelance belligerence against Israel by Hezbollah, the country’s Shiite Muslim militia.

Since its creation in the 1980s, Hezbollah evolved into a powerful component of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” sponsored by Iran. The axis included Syria and Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic faction that ruled the Gaza Strip for two decades.

In the wake of Hamas’s October 7, 2023, invasion of southern Israel and subsequent Israeli retaliatory warfare, this militant quartet fell apart:

  • Israel’s army and air force first crushed Hamas.
  • Then the Israelis invaded south Lebanon, the Hezbollah heartland from which the militia launched missiles into Israel in support of Hamas. Among the thousands of Hezbollah dead was its leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed by a rain of bombs on his home in Beirut.
  • Iran joined the war by rocketing areas of Israel. Israeli air power struck back and wiped out Iran’s air defense systems in short order.  
  • As a bonus for Tel Aviv, Muslim rebels overthrew the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last month in a lightning military campaign.

In short, the Axis of Resistance, which seemed to have been a perpetual threat, crumbled.

It may be too early to say that Israel’s victories spell an end to Middle East conflicts, but Lebanon has had enough.

The altered regional landscape opened the way for the Lebanese government, which sat on the sidelines of the war, to assert military control over the country’s borders. In addition, it expects to end Hezbollah’s ability to wage freelance military campaigns abroad.

“With Hezbollah having suffered a devastating defeat in its defeat in its conflict with Israel, and now having lost its strategic outpost in Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, the party’s ability to impose its will on the rest of Lebanese society has been crippled,” wrote Michael Young, editor of Diwan, a blog of the Carnegie Institute’s Middle East Center.

The current government is headed by President Joseph Aoun, who is a former army general, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, a former judge on the International Court of Justice.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. Photo: Facebook

The government presents its policy statement to parliament for approval February 25. Theoretically, legislative acceptance of the roadmap would open the way to demand that Hezbollah disarm and not act independently as a military force inside Lebanon or abroad.

Will erasing a word be enough? Hezbollah loyalists say no. Hassan Fadlallah, a Hezbollah member of parliament, criticized the government for trying to “appease” the United States and other Western supporters.

Part of the government plan is to revive Lebanon’s commitment to the United Nations’ 2006 resolution 1701, in which Lebanon was to place its defense exclusively in the hands of the armed forces and Hezbollah was to both disarm and move north of the Litani River, leaving a buffer zone south to the Israeli border. The country’s Sunni Muslim and Christian militias had disbanded in 1991.

The government has canceled a parliamentary rule that permitted Hezbollah to veto legislation if it could muster only a third of opposition members to oppose a measure.

Reviving the effectiveness of the armed forces is meant to secure not only Lebanon’s border with Israel but also – in order to block weapons and drug smuggling – the east and north frontier with Syria.

Since 1982, weapons have arrived from Iran via land as well as through the airport. Weapons traffic was long under Hezbollah control.

Neither Iran nor Hezbollah appears ready to surrender the use of Lebanon as a base to confront Israel. Na’im Qassem, Hezbollah’s current exiled leader, insists that Hezbollah is recovering from the Israeli onslaught and “the resistance continues.”

In Beirut, Mahmoud Qamati, Hezbollah’s deputy political council chief, said, “If politicians choose to submit, the resistance people reject American and Israeli humiliation and will never accept it.”

On Sunday, Hezbollah organized a massive display of popular support designed to show it is alive and ready to keep fighting. Hundreds of people, many of them allies from Iran and Yemen, marched into a Beirut stadium to attend a funeral for Nasrallah.

One other cloud hangs over Lebanon’s hope to exit the Middle East morass of violence: Israel has indefinitely postponed its pullout from southern Lebanon, where clusters of soldiers man high ground.

The move is parallel with IsraeI’s decision to keep troops in the Gaza Strip and maintain forces indefinitely inside far southern Syria. In short, while the Palestinian conflict continues, for the first time in 75 years Israel faces no effective armed opposition in the north, south, east or west.

Photo: YouTube / ANI

As if to emphasize that, Israeli jets buzzed the Nasrallah funeral. Foreign minister Israel Katz, said the planes were “conveying a clear message: Whoever threatens to destroy Israel and attacks Israel – that will be the end of him. You will specialize in funerals. And we will specialize in victories.”

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While US builds walls, China ripping them down – Asia Times

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The United States is threatening to impose levies on its main trading companions. China is advancing deal with the Global South in the interim to strengthen its position as the world’s hub for manufacturing and technological innovation.

If the position of America in globalization has been to take the country’s goods and resources by building on a basis of ever-increasing debt, China has been to produce tangible goods for the global market.

China is expanding its market, particularly to those in the World South.

China eliminated all tariffs on products from the least developed nations as of December 2024. Foreign Premier Li Quang has also referred to China as a potential financial hub for international investment.

Center of Asian business

China’s trade deficit with the rest of the world is about US$ 1 trillion money. Its share of global exports was 14 % in 2023, compared to 8.5 % for the U. S.

China is collaborating with local nations to establish itself as the center of Asian trade. As Chinese firms invest abroad to avoid National tariffs and expand their markets, China’s Belt and Road Initiative is funding facilities in about 150 countries.

At the moment, China accounts for 35 % of the world’s production. The UN projects that this will increase by 45 % by 2030.

China has achieved this reputation by building effective, high-quality system.

Additionally, it fosters very inventive and technologically savvy ecosystems. The recent emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence ( AI ) startup that is dramatically disrupting the sector, illustrates this reality.

China also has authority over the world’s industrial supply stores in numerous crucial areas.

The Chinese superstar

Despite its continuing economic decline, China’s market grew by about 5 % in 2024 and has the potential to grow more as it transitions to a high-tech business.

By 2030, the state may have what’s known as a consuming course of 1.1 billion people, making it the world’s largest consumer business.

Only 7.8 % of the population has the equivalent of a bachelor’s degree, but China produces about 65 % of STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics ) graduates globally on an annual basis.

China is also the world’s most innovative companies and industries, but there is still room for improvement in equipment in smaller cities and rural areas. China will need to take the lead in managing these innovations ‘ social and economic effects because it is a worldwide leader in using technology and AI.

China has scale economies that no other nation can meet, aside from India. Its dominance in the manufacturing sector is the natural result of introducing a growing, technologically advanced nation with a large population to the contemporary world system.

The primary Donald Trump administration aimed to encourage private business and to encourage investment in the US. He thought taxes may increase the number of manufacturing tasks, reduce the federal deficit, and lower foods costs.

The following Trump administration has resumed imposing tariffs in an effort to import products from different nations into the US. Trump has threatened to impose levies on the United States, Mexico, and Europe.

He has already imposed additional 10 % tariffs on all Chinese goods and imposed 25 % tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the US. He’s also threatening tariffs on Taiwan, attempting to remove it of its semiconductor sector.

Trump generally demands that other nations address business imbalances by purchasing more expensive British exports in exchange for unhindered access to the US market.

He’s attempting to recreate an American business dominance that was only possible after World War II. Also, the traditional circumstances that led to China’s reduction in the 19th and 20th centuries are longer history.

To engage with China’s benefits, the US needs a competent and powerful state capable of long-term planning. Under Trump, the US is losing this already-weak potential every day.

National loan

Because both the state and Americans incur remarkable debt to finance their usage, the US is the largest consumer economy in the world.

Currently, the American national debt is more than$ 36 trillion while consumer debt was$ 17.5 trillion in 2024.

Because the US is considered the world’s reserve currency, the dollar is gather a lot of debt. However, the US has manipulated the money by putting sanctions and laws against it outside of its borders by using the currency’s reserve status to impose sanctions and laws on sovereign states.

This has created a significant force — led by the BRICS countries of Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Iran, Russia, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates — to remove the US dollars with different economic instruments.

In response, Trump has threatened 100 % taxes on any states that try to cut the US dollar.

There has been a decline in most measures of social well-being in the US, but the British economy has grown through pumping up property bubble. This coincides with increasing British social, political and economic volatility.

Taiwanese products occupy

Imports to the West are more expensive than China’s in the Global South. In Asia, Africa, and Latin America, Taiwanese businesses and products are the most popular.

To the Global South, there are obvious benefits to entering cheap, high-quality systems and commercial products from China. China’s industrial world is also gain a lot from them, but perhaps at the expense of its own established professional capacity.

A contractor checks the display screen at the hall for Chinese computer company Sugon during the World AI Conference in Shanghai in July 2023 that features a computer device and the Chinese words for “independence.” &nbsp, Photo: AP via The Conversation / Ng Han Guan

China’s increasing production dominance means that every nation will need at least some of its products to build or maintain industry, despite some states stumbling to block Chinese imports to safeguard their industries. Nearly difficult for most nations to completely stop all deal with China.

The world is entering a new era of modernization. Many states must decide how to handle the economic and political costs and advantages of engaging with China’s vast industrial potential while avoiding being financially hampered by the US.

St. Thomas University ( Canada ) professor of international relations and political science Shaun Narine.

The Conversation has republished this essay under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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China war games nudge New Zealand closer to AUKUS – Asia Times

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In New Zealand and Australia, the presence of three Foreign naval vessels that fired live rounds in the Tasman Sea sprang out in a sense of concern. However, the actual event has more to do with the political context than the real situation.

In reality, the Chinese navy has basic freedoms on the high lakes and is permitted to perform exercises in the Tasman. China’s behavior so much seems to be in line with both the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea.

There was no commitment to provide this, despite the fact that New Zealand would have preferred to be given more details about the objectives of the Chinese navy.

The Tasman’s current situation is not at all comparable to the more ferocious saber-rattling the Chinese government has exhibited around the South China Sea, most lately involving both the American and Spanish navies.

And in September of last year, the Chinese tested a nuclear-capable international weapon into the South Pacific just a few weeks after Australian and New Zealand warships sailed through the Taiwan Strait.

For China, of training, Taiwan and parts of the South China Sea are greatly disputed territory. The Tasman Sea is no. But what is disputed is China’s position and control in the Pacific – and this, rather than a small marine workout, is what is causing problems in Canberra and Wellington.

The Cook Islands issue

The instant context for that problem is the surprise contract signed by the Cook Islands and China two fortnight before, which aims to “deepening orange economy cooperation.”

The agreement steers clear of contentious topics like surveillance and security. But it moves Chinese control into infrastructure support for quay, manufacturing and maintenance, and sea travel.

How this opens the South Pacific up to yet greater Chinese control and exercise is what really challenges New Zealand’s international policy. Winston Peters, the foreign secretary, has indicated that a new arrangement needs to be established.

China has argued for its part that its connection with the Cook Islands “is not directed against any next party and should not be subject to or disrupted by any third group.”

In other words, China has advised New Zealand to ignore a significant growth in its previously friendly diplomatic and political ties to its Pacific cousin.

A Chinese personal purpose?

All of this is occurring within a fast altering sociopolitical context. Another main powers like Russia and China are adapting, and US President Donald Trump is formally trying to upend the aged US-led world order.

New Zealand’s relations with China were now difficult. State-sponsored Chinese intervention in domestic politics, political system breaches, and other destructive computer activity have been identified by the Security Intelligence Service and the Government Communications Security Bureau.

The key question is then whether China’s subsequent actions have led to an own goal. The same may now be more probable, despite the fact that it might like New Zealand to have a more independent foreign policy that balances its relations with East and West.

New Zealand has always tended to work harder and to develop stronger ties with its classic allies in times of global stress and uncertainty.

Whether it is the concern of Russian war in the 19th centuries or Chinese invasion in the 20th century, and whether or not those dangers are actual or imagined, New Zealand returns to form.

It has been doing this for almost 150 ages, and it’s likely to happen once more. New Zealand is now pondering how to react to the restored global system from the Trump administration and will be looking for ways to bolster the friendship.

The government then appears to be enticed to a new arms race and to boosting defence spending as a percentage of GDP. Additionally, it may be much easier to socially buy the rumored advantages of joining the next level of the AUKUS security pact.

Alexander Gillespie is professor of law, University of Waikato

The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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US revives WWII-era Pacific air base for a China showdown – Asia Times

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The US government’s swift recovery of Tinian North Field, a deserted original World War II B-29 base, signals a major change in its Pacific protection strategy in relation to China.

The War Zone reported that current satellite pictures confirms the broad restoration of North Field on Tinian Island, which is located 193 km north of Guam. Between December 2023 and January 2025, the statement stated that more than 20 million square feet of tarmac and equipment at the airport have been rehabilitated. &nbsp,

The US Air Force and Navy have spearheaded the project, integrating the site into the US Agile Combat Employment (ACE ) strategy emphasizing dispersed, flexible basing to counter China’s missile threats. Tinian North Field’s grid-like style affects army targeting, requiring substantial resources to destroy.

To increase administrative capabilities, Tinian International Airport is currently working on a sizable new aprons and energy storage facilities. The reform complements Andersen Air Force Base on Guam and another Pacific airports in America’s wider Indo-Pacific plan.

While US officials give effective air defenses preceding hardening facilities, China’s growing missile threat highlights the need for flexible basing. The recovery also accommodates short-take-off plane like the F-35B, reinforcing US energy forecast in the region.

The US has undertaken related repair work at Peleliu, an area of Palau, and strategies to do the same for Yap, an area of Micronesia. The military equipment on Peleliu and Yap may be upgraded to those on Tinian and Guam to raise survivorship against a Chinese invasion and strengthen America’s place in the Second Island Chain once it is finished.

Why, 80 years after World War II, is the US bolstering its appearance in the Pacific’s Second Island Chain? Grant Georgulis argues in a 2022 content for the Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs that the First Island Chain, spanning Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines, is never a survivable nor safe place for businesses because it is within reach of China’s long-range aircraft, cruise missiles and nuclear weapons.

Georgulis suggests that the US rely on the Second Island Chain, including Midway, the Marianas, Palau and the Marshall Islands, to strengthen Guam’s threats.

Nevertheless, China has its own island-hopping approach in the Pacific. Andrew Weaver mentions that China has been using coercive economic policies and elite capture to coerce island nations to support its Pacific defense plans, which aim to remove the US from its maritime periphery, in an August 2023 article for the Foreign Policy Research Institute ( FPRI ).

For example, Grant Newsham mentions that a game affiliated with China obtained permission to operate in Tinian Harbor, where US military equipment and supplies are transported. According to Newsham, the casino offers an excellent view of its coastal method, making it a top choice for Chinese intelligence service to operate there.

Additionally, Newsham points out that US efforts to establish a coaching center on Saipan a decade ago were thwarted by a now-defunct Chinese game, with money being richly spent in “environmental organizations” and in government loops.

He also mentions that China is investing in strategically located territory at Angaur in Palau where the US intends to install an over-the-horizon weapon defence radar and that it is building an airport there for” tourism” purposes. China is reportedly considering building a new US airport in Kanton, Kiribati, for” tourism” purposes, according to Newsham.

Additionally, Newsham mentions that East Timor has the potential to “gift” China an empty US 10, 000-foot airport in trade for financial help, and that strategies are being developed for China to build Henderson Field in the Solomon Islands. The US and its Pacific colleagues might have to halt their involvement in the Third Island Chain if China were to gain a significant foothold there.

Frederick Cichon asserts in a December 2024 Trials content that the US position in the Pacific is comparable to what it was in 1941. According to Chancon, the US’s defeat in the Philippines forced it to work as far ahead as Hawaii, thereby allowing Japan to create island foundations throughout the Southwest and the South Pacific.

He points out that the US was forced to engage in unforeseen combat in the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea, with just Midway and Coral Sea wars preventing Japan.

He argues that outposts in the Third Island Chain, such as those in Hawaii, American Samoa, and New Zealand, provided essential support and were less susceptible than US bases in the First and Second Island Chains.

Cichon warns that China’s weapons could seriously harm US troops in Japan and Guam in a contemporary war over Taiwan, undermining the need for the US to improve its surroundings and missile threats in the First and Second Island Chains and demonstrate advanced foundations in the Third Island Chain.

Yet the Third Island Chain does no longer be the US’s preferred defensive tactic. China recently conducted live-fire activities in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand, hastily broadcasting a reminder to commercial airplanes flying over the place.

Anne-Marie Brady claims that China’s unannounced live-fire exercise was intended to show New Zealand, Australia, and other Pacific nations that it wants to establish a permanent regional presence in a Radio New Zealand ( RNZ ) report this month.

Brady also points out that New Zealand must listen to China’s challenge in live-fire exercises, but that she claims the defence budget has been cut so far that it is unable to do so.

New Zealand is also concerned about a recently established, complete partnership between China and the Cook Islands, which is located halfway between Hawaii and New Zealand.

The Cook Islands have been able to provide people with New Zealand documents since 1965 by maintaining a free connection with the country. The Cook Islands can undertake an independent foreign policy, but it must discuss with New Zealand regarding issues involving foreign plan, defense, and protection.

In an essay for The New Zealand Herald, Anna Powles points out that China’s “blue economy” cooperation on tourism and ground mining could include important infrastructure, such as the construction of ports that can house the hundreds of Taiwanese coast guard ships registered in the Pacific, and that it would also lead to a stronger Foreign presence in the area.

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Trump tariffs driving UK-Japan trade ties – Asia Times

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Unknown state sources cited by the Chinese media claim that Japan and the UK are gearing up for their first ministerial-level conversation on monetary issues on March 7. Last November, with an eye on incoming US President Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs, Tokyo and London agreed to launch regular” 2 2″ meetings between their foreign and economics ]… ]Continue Reading

On a train from Pakistan to Russia via US-sanctioned Iran – Asia Times

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Pakistan Railways Freight CEO Sufiyan Sarfaraz Dogar&nbsp, announced&nbsp, last week that the second Russian-Pakistani transport coach service will release on March 15, transiting across Iran, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

According to reports, the line will help Russian exports of industrial and agricultural products to Pakistan and Pakistan’s exports of agrarian and textile goods to Russia.

This is the most recent breakthrough in their relationship and has been in the doing for a long time. These are three major restaurants.

Iran’s unique position

Next month’s ideas show that Russia and Pakistan are prioritizing Iran over&nbsp, Afghanistan&nbsp, as the unique travel state for expanding their diplomatic deal. That’s reasonable considering continued Pakistani-Taliban hostilities, but it also carries risks.

Trump has &nbsp, already revived&nbsp, his first government’s “maximum pressure” legislation against Iran and is therefore expected to establish secondary restrictions against all companies that also deal with it without a cancellation.

Trump’s but serious about this that he&nbsp, threatened to change or rescind&nbsp, the exemption that his first leadership extended to India, which has invested heavily in Iran’s Chahabar Port, but he’ll consistently come down cruelly against Pakistan, too.

Therein lies the problem since Pakistan has proven in the past that it will comply with American sanctions against Iran, most infamously the one that’s obstructing their&nbsp, over-decade-long pipeline plans.

So, it will likely do the same with the US ‘ latest sanctions crackdown and, therefore, abandon this route for trade with Russia.

Pakistani-Taliban tensions

By relying on Afghanistan as their transit state, Russian-Pakistani trade could be conducted more cost-effectively and economically, but that won’t be possible as long as Pakistani-Taliban tensions continue.

In a nutshell, those tensions boil&nbsp, down&nbsp, to the Taliban suspecting that&nbsp, Pakistan’s de facto military junta&nbsp, is&nbsp, secretly allied with the US&nbsp, against it.

Pakistan, in contrast, accuses the Taliban of supporting terrorist organizations like Pashtun and Baloch ( perhaps as a counterbalance to restoring the fractious balance of power ).

Although Russia is&nbsp, better positioned than anyone else&nbsp, to mediate between them, it hasn’t yet formally done so, nor might it ultimately succeed in resolving the security dilemma at the core of their disputes.

That’s regrettable because relying on Iran increases the likelihood that Pakistan will fall victim to US pressure to impose secondary sanctions.

The self-evident solution is to patch up their problems for the greater good of Eurasian connectivity, but that’s a lot easier said than done.

Will to expand

Laudably, the will exists on both sides to expand bilateral trade in spite of the described obstacles. Quite clearly, there is still a&nbsp, faction/school of the Pakistani establishment&nbsp, that is serious about diversifying their country’s economic dependence on China and testing the limits of its traditional political dependence on the US, each by means of Russia. This suggests that senior citizens are placing a little weight between the two.

No one should be mistaken about India ever developing relations with non-traditional partners like Pakistan at this historic stage of the&nbsp, global systemic transition to multipolarity, despite the fact that everyone agrees that this needs to be done at India’s expense.

The combined effect of the above mentioned imperatives is that the parties are sincerely attempting to make good on their&nbsp, economic&nbsp, agreements&nbsp, from last year in pursuit of their complementary interests.

The imminent launch of the first Russian-Pakistani freight train service through Iran, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan is a big deal, but the challenges Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy and persistent Pakistani-Taliban tensions could pose could limit bilateral trade.

The best-case scenario would therefore be for Pakistan to defy the US over Iran, address its issues with the Taliban, and rely instead on two trade routes to Russia, but that might be too much for its de facto military junta.

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack and is republished with kind permission. Become an Andrew Korybko Newsletter subscriber&nbsp, here.

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