Chinese humanoid robots get reality check in half-marathon debut – Asia Times

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Six out of 21 Chinese computers completed the world’s primary half marathon ( 21. 1 miles ) for human drones in Beijing on April 19, with the success setting a record period of 2 days and 40 days.

Over 12,000 individuals participated in the workout on the same day, and the individual success reached the terminal in 1 hours and 2 moments.

The Tien Kung Ultra robot ,  developed by X-Humanoid, a Beijing-based state-owned organization, won the race for human computers. It is 1. 8 feet tall and weighs 52 pounds.

The first runner-up, Noetix Robotics ’ N2, finished the half-marathon in 3 hours 37 minutes. It is 1. 2 feet tall, weighs 29 pounds, and wears children’s coaches.

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The next runner-up, DroidUp’s X02, finished the competition in 4 hours and 50 minutes. It wears  boxing  boots.

An illegal group entered the competition using a Unitree G2 machine, but the machine fell at the starting place and became a talking point of the celebration.

Unitree said that the company did not send a group to join in this workout as it has been busy lately. It added that anyone who bought a Unitree machine can install it in pursuits, but distinct training may lead to different results.  

On April 10, Unitree released images saying it will be live-streaming machine conflict in about a fortnight.

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Tang Jian, chief technology officer of X-Humanoid, said his staff only used one machine to finish the half-marathon, while another people needed to change computers many times.

He admitted that the X-Humanoid machine had fallen once during the triathlon according to power failure and had  three power derivatives during the competition.

“We have spent seven to eight times preparing for this workout by doing a lot of tests on the machine and fine-tuning its engine, ” Tang said.

“Firstly, we reduced our robot’s fat; firstly, we improved its heat absorption system to prevent burning; Finally, we added a insulation function to reduce wear on its single and joint components, ” he added. “ What is more important is that we increased the length of our robot’s arms to work faster. ”

“The industrialization of human robots will include three phases. In the first stage, robots will be used in standard industries; therefore, they will be used in certain business environments to complete tasks such as presentation and scanning codes; eventually, they will be deployed to properties to play the role of maid and maid, ” Tang said.

He said it would get Taiwanese companies three to five years to market their drones, by which time they may be deployed in homes to provide people and perform chores.

X-Humanoid, formally known as Beijing Humanoid Robot Innovation Center, was formed simultaneously by technology firm Ubtech, gadgets and electric car maker Xiaomi and the Beijing municipal state.

Stocks of the Hong Kong-listed Ubtech Robotics increased 2. 9 % on Tuesday. Stocks of the state-owned Shoucheng Holdings, which has invested in X-Humanoid and Noetix, rose 4 %.

Testing ‘cerebellums’

According to the workout rules, each team is build three staff members to help a machine. The machine does not need an pilot system; its distant joystick can be wired or wireless.

The contest landscape includes level land and stairs, with a maximum hill of 9 degrees. The competition way has six left-turn and eight right-turn roads.

One of the robot developers who joined the marathon said this activity aims to test robots ’ cerebellums ( ability to control the body ) instead of their cerebrums ( ability to make decisions and think ).

Of the 21 machine athletes, just six completed the competition, while the remaining 15 failed.

A small machine went up in smoke during a workout in Beijing on April 7, 2025. Photo: Baidu

A little machine developed by Beijing Polytechnic University kids overheated and went up in smoke. Some other groups sprayed ocean on their computers to keep them cool.

A female-looking machine walked a little range and fell. One Gundam ( from a Japanese comic ) robot used four fans to move forward, but crashed seconds after beginning its journey.

“The winning technique of Noetix’s N2 robot is its steady mechanical construction and superior engine performance, ” Hu Chenxu, chairman and chief professor of Noetix, told the media. “Small computers have a lot of advantages, such as higher flexibility and agility. Some research institutes use small drones to complete their studies work. ” 

A female-looking machine has ended her voyage after walking for a little distance. Photo: Baidu

“Robots need a high resilience to go from the laboratory to the marathon record, ” he said.

He said he after worried that the N2 machine, which is more like a dancer, would not be a great skater; happily, the machine performed exceedingly well, except it needed a new distant controller after a power change.

He said Noetix’s robots are now used in medical research, education, exhibitions, social, and hospitality sectors and will be deployed for scenarios such as elderly care, professional inspection and industrial security.

In September 2023, Jiang Zheyuan, a PhD student at Tsinghua University, then 25, founded Noetix Robotics. So far, the company has raised five rounds of funding. It planned to deliver one thousand robots this year and expected positive cash flow in the fourth quarter.

Jiang told Sohu. com in an interview in March that his company needed to commercialize its products as early as possible due to its limited financial resources, unlike DeepSeek, an artificial intelligence company with sufficient resources to pursue technical ideals.  

Regarding the robotic race between China and the United States, Jiang said China has a substantial cost advantage. He said it costs only 40 yuan ( US$ 5. 5 ) per hour to collect robotic data in China but US$ 48 per hour in the US. Besides, he said a wide range of industries in China can provide different environments for companies to improve the algorithms of their robots.

He said that using Chinese humanoid robots will continue to focus on education and exhibition in the next three years. He said Noetix plans to launch a small robot that costs below 10,000 yuan next year.

According to the Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute, total sales of humanoid robots will reach 12,400 units or 6. 34 billion yuan globally in 2025. Chinese companies may sell about 7,300 humanoid robots during this period.

Read: Unitree’s humanoid robot a great side-flip forward for China

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Between giants: South Korean moment for a balanced foreign policy – Asia Times

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South Korea is heading into a critical round of trade deals with the United States in Washington on April 24. These discussions come at a time of mounting pressure from both Washington and Beijing, and the choices Korea makes today will considerably form its future economic and strategic direction.

The United States is urging South Korea to fit more tightly with its broader attempts to counter China. Washington is seeking assistance on a number of sides – export controls, purchase restrictions and supply chain reform – all aimed at curbing Beijing’s industrial and economic impact. But this is no longer simply about business. It is a turning point for Seoul, a minute to decide whether to pursue the US guide, assert its autonomy or get a more measured path – a multi-alignment strategy.

What the US needs

At the heart of US expectations is the issue of taxes. The Trump presidency has imposed 25 % mutual tariffs on major Asian imports, especially cars and material. Though the taxes were suspended for 90 days, Korea is pressing for continuous treatment to reduce financial uncertainty for its companies.

The disparity in diplomatic trade is another key issue. The US trade deficit with Korea reached$ 55. 7 billion in 2024, prompting Washington to call for greater exports of British goods, especially energy materials like liquefied natural gas. In reply, Korea is proposing broader cooperation in proper sectors, such as manufacturing and involvement in major US facilities projects, including the Alaska gas pipeline – offering common economic and geopolitical benefits.

Semiconductors are a major point of contention. With the US reportedly considering new tariffs on Korean chips, Seoul has already unveiled a 33 trillion won ($ 23 billion ) support package to reinforce its semiconductor industry. This reflects Korea’s desire to remain a global tech leader while bracing for possible shocks from US trade policy.

Although not officially on the agenda, the sensitive issue of defense cost-sharing may also surface in the talks. While South Korean officials insist this is unrelated to trade, there is speculation that Washington may raise it, potentially complicating the tone of the negotiations.

Perhaps the most complex issue is Korea’s economic relationship with China. The US is expected to pressure Seoul to reduce its dependency on Chinese trade and align with Washington ’s export controls that target exports of advanced technology to Beijing.

While South Korea has shown some willingness to cooperate, it is also seeking economic incentives to soften the blow of potential losses from a slowdown in China-bound trade. Washington ’s push for Korea to join the “Economic Prosperity Network ” – a framework aimed at restructuring global supply chains away from China – is further complicating matters. South Korean industries, still wary after the THAAD backlash, are concerned about provoking China and facing another wave of economic retaliation.

Meanwhile, the US has implemented new outbound investment restrictions on certain Chinese tech sectors, effective January 2025. While these measures primarily affect American companies, Seoul is monitoring them closely, assessing possible indirect impacts and preparing suitable responses.

Seoul is also seeking a reduction or delay of new tariffs on South Korean exports and, in return, offering deeper cooperation in fields like shipbuilding, clean energy, and digital infrastructure – areas where mutual benefit can be found without fully compromising strategic autonomy.

The high cost of saying ‘yes ’ or ‘no’ to Washington

The stakes are high. If Korea says “yes ” to US demands, the benefits are tangible. Tariff relief would directly support key Korean industries, and expanded cooperation in semiconductors, batteries, and renewable energy could enhance Korea’s technological edge. Such alignment would deepen the bilateral alliance and strengthen Seoul’s presence in Washington-led initiatives.

Yet the risks are equally significant. Aligning too closely with Washington could provoke harsh retaliation from China – Korea’s largest trading partner. Beijing has already warned countries seeking exemptions from the Trump-era tariffs not to make deals at its expense. While China claims to respect nations ’ efforts to resolve trade disputes with the US, it insists that they must also “stand on the side of fairness and justice ” and “on the correct side of history. ”

The tone of China ’s   recent statements suggests that it is taking this issue very seriously and is in no mood to let such deals proceed without imposing serious consequences on countries that act against its interests.

As seen during the THAAD deployment, Beijing may react with export bans, consumer boycotts, or diplomatic pressure. Overreliance on the US could also expose South Korea to political shifts in Washington and limit Seoul’s freedom to maneuver. Most importantly, South Korea risks losing its strategic autonomy – the ability to set its own course and engage multiple powers on its own terms.

On the other hand, if South Korea refuses US demands, it preserves its strong economic relationship with China. It avoids immediate retaliation, protects its exports and upholds its position as an independent middle power.

But this approach is also not without cost. US incentives for Korean firms could disappear. Access to American subsidies and collaborative opportunities in high-tech sectors might dry up. Korea could be excluded from future US-led initiatives such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, QUAD or emerging digital and defense networks. Washington might also begin to question Korea’s reliability as an ally, weakening Seoul’s leverage in future security negotiations.

Why Korea needs a multi-alignment strategy

Amid this dilemma, a multi-alignment strategy emerges as the only sustainable solution.

With President Yoon Suk-yeol now removed and the domestic political climate rapidly changing, South Korea is entering a new phase. Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, currently the frontrunner for the presidency, is unlikely to accept all of Washington ’s demands without recalibration. If pushed too far, relations between the two allies could face serious strain. In this evolving environment, a middle path – firm yet flexible – may be Korea’s best option.

Korea does not need to pick a side between the United States and China. It needs a smarter, more dynamic approach – one that prioritizes South Korean interests, mitigates risks, and enhances global credibility.

Multi-alignment offers precisely this. It allows Korea to cooperate with Washington in strategic areas like semiconductors, clean energy, and defense technologies – sectors where South Korea can gain from joint investment, research, and global market access. Simultaneously, it lets South Korea sustain strong trade and investment ties with China, avoiding unnecessary economic damage and ensuring the health of key industries.

A multi-alignment approach also opens the door to diversified diplomacy. South Korea can deepen its engagement with India, ASEAN, and the European Union while enhancing trilateral cooperation with China and Japan on vital areas such as climate change, logistics, and public health. Broadening partnerships with BRICS and Eurasian countries can further reduce dependence on any single power and unlock new economic opportunities.

Internally, South Korea must reinforce this strategy by investing in its domestic strengths – innovation, energy independence, and technological resilience. Building homegrown capabilities will give South Korea the freedom to navigate great-power rivalries without being constrained by external dependencies.

The era of uncritical alignment with Washington is over. Multi-alignment gives Korea multiple options – flexibility without fragmentation. It empowers Seoul to operate confidently in a fragmented world, defending its national interests while remaining an active and respected global player.

At this moment of crossroads, South Korea must choose wisely. Siding fully with one power risks long-term subordination. Refusing both invites isolation. The real answer lies in balance – a multi-alignment strategy that keeps Korea strong, sovereign, respected and prosperous.

This is not a moment to choose sides – it is a moment to shape outcomes. South Korea must rise to its full potential as a true pivotal state – not as a passive bystander in great-power rivalry, but as a confident architect of a new regional balance of power and a bridge-builder in an increasingly polarized world.

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Politically connected firms benefit from Trump tariff exemptions – Asia Times

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This content was originally published by ProPublica, a Pulitzer Prize-winning exploratory office.

After President Donald Trump announced sweeping new levies earlier this month, the White House released a list of more than a thousand items that would be exempted.

One product that made the list is polypropylene terephthalate, more commonly known as PET epoxy, the plastic used to produce plastic containers.

Why it was spared is questionable, and also persons in the industry are confused about the reason for the break.

But its inclusion is a win for Reyes Holdings, a Coca-Cola bottler that ranks among the largest privately held organizations in the US and is owned by a pair of sons who have donated millions of dollars to Democratic factors. Records show the business just hired a lobbying organization with close relationships to the Trump White House to make its situation on taxes.

Whether the business ’s lobbying played any role in the deduction is unclear. Torres Holdings and its lobbying did not respond to queries from ProPublica. The White House even did not comment, but some business activists say the administration has rebuffed calls for deductions.

The resin’s unexpected addition on the list exemplifies how transparent the administration ’s method for crafting its tax legislation has been. Key participants are in the black about why certain items face charges and others don’t. Tax charges have been altered without any apparent reason for the alterations. Administration officials have given conflicting information about the taxes or declined to answer queries at all.

The lack of clarity about the procedure has created problems among business professionals that politically connected firms may be winning carve-outs behind closed doors.

“It had been corruption, but it could just as easily become incompetence, ” a lawyer who works on tax legislation said of PET resin’s addition. “To be fair, this was like a hurried chaos, I am not certain who got into the White House to talk to people about the record. ”

During the first Trump presidency, there was a proper method for seeking an exemption from taxes. Businesses submitted hundreds of thousands of uses making the case for why their products should be spared. The programs were open, so the technology of the tax crafting method could be more closely examined. For clarity allowed academics to immediately assess thousands of the applications and decide that political donors to Republicans were more likely to be granted exemptions.

In Trump’s next name, at least so far, there has not been a formal application process for tax carve-outs. Industry executives and activists are making their circumstance behind closed doors. The Wall Street Journal ’s editorial board last month called “the transparency of the process ” for getting an exemption “the Beltway Swamp’s vision. ”

In the professional order formalizing Trump’s fresh tariffs, including baseline 10 % tariffs for almost all countries, exemptions were loosely defined as items in the medical, semiconductor, lumber, copper, essential vitamins and energy fields. An accompanying list detailed the specific products that would be spared.

But a ProPublica review of that list found many items that don’t fit neatly, or at all, in those broad categories– and some items that fall squarely within the categories were not spared.

The White House exclusions list, for example, included most types of asbestos, which is not generally considered a critical mineral and does n’t seem to fit in any of the exempted categories. The cancer-causing mineral, which is not generally considered critical to national security or the US economy, is still used to make chlorine, but the Biden administration ’s Environmental Protection Agency banned imports of the material last year. The Trump administration has signaled it may roll back some of those Biden-era restrictions.

A spokesperson for the American Chemistry Council, which had pushed back on the ban because it could hurt the chlorine industry, said the trade group played no role in lobbying for asbestos to get a tariff exemption and did n’t know why it was included. ( Two major chlorine companies also showed no indication of lobbying on the tariffs in their disclosure forms. )

Other items that landed on the list, despite not falling into exempted categories, are far more innocuous. Among them: coral, shells and cuttlebone, a part of the cuttlefish that is used as a dietary supplement for pets.

PET resin also does n’t fit neatly in any of the exempted categories. It’s possible the administration counted it as an energy product, experts said, because its ingredients are derived from petroleum. But other products that would have met that same low bar were not included.

“We are as surprised as anybody, ” said Ralph Vasami, executive director of the PET Resin Association, a trade group for the industry. The resin, he said, has no application for the exempted categories, unless you count the packaging those products come in.

Lobbyist Brian Ballard and President Donald Trump together at an unspecified gathering. Photo: Courtesy Brian Ballard

During the fourth quarter of last year, the same period when Trump won the election, records show Reyes Holdings, the Coca-Cola bottler, enlisted Ballard Partners to lobby on tariffs. During the first quarter of this year, when Trump was inaugurated, records show that Ballard began lobbying the Commerce Department, which shapes trade policy, on tariffs. The firm has become a destination for companies looking for an in with the Trump administration. It once lobbied for Trump’s own company, the Trump Organization, and its staff has included top officials in the administration, such as Attorney General Pam Bondi and the president ’s chief of staff, Susie Wiles. Brian Ballard, its founder and a prolific fundraiser for Trump, was named by Politico “the most powerful lobbyist in Trump’s Washington. ” He was one of two lobbyists from the firm who lobbied on tariffs for Reyes Holdings, federal disclosure records show.

The billionaire brothers behind Reyes Holdings, Chris and Jude Reyes, also have their own political ties. While they have given to some Democratic candidates, the bulk of their political donations have gone to Republican causes, campaign finance disclosures show. And after Trump’s first election win, Chris Reyes was invited to Mar-a-Lago to meet privately with Trump.

The PET resin carve-out is n’t just a break for Reyes Holdings. It’s a boon to other firms that buy the resin to manufacture bottles and the beverage companies that use them. Earlier this year, the CEO of Coca-Cola said the company would transition to using more plastic bottles in the face of new tariffs on aluminum, a plan that might have been dashed if the thermoplastics were also hit with new tariffs.

Disclosure records show the company also lobbied this year about tariffs on the Hill, but the documents don’t provide detail about which policies in particular, and the company did not respond to questions from ProPublica. ( Coca-Cola has looked to make inroads with Trump, donating about$ 250,000 for his inauguration, and the CEO presented Trump with a personalized bottle of his favorite soda, Diet Coke. )

Another industry that appears to have done relatively well lobbying for carve-outs from the recent tariffs is agriculture. The exemption list includes various pesticide and fertilizer ingredients.

The American Farm Bureau Federation, an agricultural lobby, took credit for some of those exemptions in an analysis posted on its website recently, calling exemptions for peat and potash “hard fought for by agricultural organizations such as the American Farm Bureau Federation ” and “a testament to the effectiveness of farmers’ and ranchers raising their collective voice. ”

There are a number of other imports that don’t neatly fall into any of the exempted categories but might if the categories were defined loosely.

One example is sucralose, the artificial sweetener. Its inclusion will largely help companies that use the product in food and beverages. But sucralose is also sometimes used in drugs to make them more palatable. It’s not clear if the White House gave it a pass under the pharmaceutical exemption or for some other reason.

Even for the items that were spared, the reprieve may just be temporary.

The broad categories exempted are largely industries that are being investigated by the administration for potential future tariffs under its authority to administer levies to protect national security.

Alex Mierjeski and Agnel Philip contributed research. Sign up for The Big Story newsletter to receive stories like this one in your inbox.

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Stupidity researchers: Trump’s policies not just dumb but stupid – Asia Times

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Before he stepped down as Canadian prime minister, Justin Trudeau called Donald Trump’s tax laws “very silly. ” This might be an exact description of numerous Trump management policies— but the more honestly correct word is “stupid. ”

In fact, Québec’s largest newspaper, Le Journal de Montréal, published a front-page photo of Trump in early February with the word “stupid ” in 350-point type. Some may call this an opinion, but the knowledge of foolishness tells us that it ’s more of a description.

New research has produced a terse label for the ill calculated activities of decision-makers: stupidity.

This is not easy name-calling, but a sensation that comprises damage and features a set of actions that are either illegal recognizably destructive, or look thus at odds with any sensible course of action that it seems a hidden agenda was become involved.

Foolishness that causes everyone to reduce

According to the sperm and interpersonal view of human stupidity by Carlo Cipolla, the later Roman economic historian, relationships fall into four types:

    Intelligent conversation that is beneficial to all – a positive-sum activity like Scottish scientist Adam Smith’s notion of success through specialization and trade;

  1. Helpless interaction that results in a loss in a zero-sum game;
  2. Bandit interaction that results in a gain in zero-sum game;
  3. Stupid interactions that cause all parties to suffer losses.

Free trade is based on an intelligent positive-sum interaction. Trump’s transactional zero-sum view is that for every winner there is a loser.

He apparently does n’t understand that tariffs are only successful if other countries don’t retaliate. But other countries do retaliate, and as the world is now witnessing, the resulting trade war can decimate the global economy.

Trump’s protectionist measures aimed at boosting the US economy can therefore be considered “stupid ” interactions that risk deepening and lengthening an economic depression.

Stupidity as recognizable actions

Modern-day researchers have also identified three recognizable sets of actions embodying stupidity:

Confident ignorance involves people taking risks without having the necessary skills to deal with them. It’s not just being ignorant of one’s ignorance — explained by the Dunning-Kruger effect— but being self-assured despite contrary evidence.

Trump may know what he does not know, so he delegated many tasks to Tesla founder Elon Musk and trade tariff architect Pete Navarro, both of whom seem to possess no such awareness.

Absent-minded failure means people knew the right thing to do but were not paying sufficient attention to avoid doing something stupid. Organizations create agendas, but if issues don’t reach a point where they seriously impact the organization’s objectives, they are ignored.

An example: the recent US strikes against Yemeni Houthis. US officials ignored critical security components by sharing information about their plans over unsecure connections and with a member of the media.

Lack of control means that autocratic decision-makers compromise their organizations by failing to accept objections from those charged with implementing the leader’s preconceived plans.

Such autocratic decision-makers may select biased information to support their proposals. People working under those leaders either buy into efforts to selectively use information, limit alternatives and execute these preconceived plans or they leave the organization (either voluntarily or not ).

In the US, witness the firing of Justice Department pardon attorney Elizabeth Oyer. She failed to support restoring gun rights to actor Mel Gibson, who had been convicted of domestic violence in 2011. Gibson’s pardon was reportedly based on his personal relationship with the president.

Types of stupidity

Organizational researchers have used the term functional stupidity to describe those who refuse to use their intellectual capacities when making decisions and then avoid justification for their actions. This allows group members to quickly execute routine functions without much thought.

Dysfunctional stupidity is a lack of organizationally supported reflection, reasoning and justification. Organizations fail to use intellectual resources to process knowledge or question norms or claims of knowledge when confronted with new or non-routine decisions. By blocking communications, muffling criticism and squelching doubts, organizations ensure adherence to superiors ’ edicts.

One Trump administration example is the unquestioning permission given to allow the Department of Government Efficiency ( DOGE ), headed by Musk, to gain access to a wide array of government data.

It can take the combined efforts of organizational officials on multiple levels to maintain stupidity.

Individually, stupidity is reinforced by ignoring crucial information because of a need for a rapid response.

Consequently, quick decisions and shortcuts made by individuals result in negative outcomes. An example would be the Trump administration ’s apparent need to appear to find cost savings quickly to allow for tax cuts, overriding a more logical approach to find ways to achieve those savings without gutting legally mandated services.

Organizationally, stupidity is reinforced because organizations limit acceptable alternative behaviors when they cannot process all available information. Data are restricted, controls are tightened and organization officials fall back to using previously well-learned responses in their comfort zones. Inexperienced decision-makers fall back on uninformed assumptions, or no assumptions at all.

Witness Trump’s “reciprocal” trade tariffs that battered financial markets worldwide, finally causing him to hit the pause button. No tariffs were calculated using current tariff rates, while some were based on American trade deficits with other countries. Other tariffs seem to be based on no rationale at all.

Stupidity as a hidden agenda?

Some actions that appear stupid may simply hide a hidden agenda. When the Trump administration erroneously detains and deports anyone under the Alien Enemies Act, is it an accident – or is it a way to instill the fear that authorities can detain, mistreat and deport anyone without due process at any point?

Many of the actions being taken by the Trump administration appear stupid. Tariffs, for example, represent a loss — a transactionally negative sum game.

Trump’s decisions exhibit confident ignorance, absent-minded failure and lack of control. They also show dysfunctional stupidity as Trump officials seemingly refuse to use their full intellectual resources. Stupidity is also being reinforced through unfounded assumptions. Is this all hiding a secret agenda?

“You can’t fix stupid, ” so the saying goes. But having capable administrators in place while other branches of government exercise their constitutionally mandated oversight role might dampen some of the Trump administration ’s stupidity.

Jerry Paul Sheppard is an associate professor of business administration at Simon Fraser University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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When Australia should and shouldn’t go to war – Asia Times

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In 2024, the National Defense Strategy made punishment Australia’s “primary corporate security purpose. ”

With writing today live for the 2026 National Defense Strategy, is Australia actually hinder threats to the country?

Usually, our defense strategy simply asked that our martial capabilities “command value. ” In today’s globe, but, Australia needs a far more effective military posture to protect itself.

To effectively deter an attack, Australia needs the gear, indicators and processes to encourage a potentially hostile country to evaluate the cost of ussr threatening us.

A punishment method promises to reduce the likelihood of issue. It reduces the chances for an attack to report “cheap” wins by communicating how we could “deny ” their main objective and possibly “punish” them for their anger.

It forces an adversary to make a choice: again over or risk failing at your goal and starting a more substantial fight.

While we don’t understand exactly how a potential attack might adapt, Australia must do more to create our objective clear on how we would listen to a provocation. We are part of an international group researching the ways to do this.

This is what we think is needed in the next National Defense Strategy.

What deterrent looks like

Creating a reliable deterrent posture is not easy. The 2024 military technique lists a wide variety of activities that may transform an adversary’s risk assessment.

Some of these things are specific ( surveilling and protecting Australia’s sea lanes of communication ). Others are vague and loosely connected to deterrence ( supporting the global rules-based order ).

To make sure our punishment information is as clear and effective as possible, the 2026 plan will require a little tighter policy platform around where Australia would have the authority to deter an attack, and how we would do so.

It will also need to aspect the particular military preparations Australia has undertaken to properly hinder challenges.

Vagueness in speech or assumptions in proposed behavior will never cut it.

What story can tell us

The scientific literature on how to apply an efficient deterrence is essentially drawn from Cold War history.

Numerous times, the US and USSR made purposeful attempts to take punishment signals to the other side. They did this by acquiring new capabilities ( such as longer-range missiles ) and expanding their nuclear stockpiles, or by conducting military exercises and deploying forces around the world. These information, however, were generally misunderstood.

Often, these signs – such as US President John F Kennedy ’s support of West Berlin with an additional battalion during the Berlin Crisis of 1961 – made political feeling, but less so physically.

One approach for Australia to view this deterrent question is considering the adversary’s theory of victory – how they seek to achieve their goal – and then identifying ways to directly and formally present we can destroy it.

For example, after winning the 1982 Falkland Islands War against Argentina, Britain invested significant resources into the Mount Pleasant Air Base on the islands. They are now home to up to 2,000 personnel, enabling significant and rapid reinforcements in the event of future hostilities.

The use of ‘trip wires’

Australia is now acquiring significant new strike capabilities. However, even if we increase our defense spending beyond the 3 % of GDP currently being discussed, the Australian Defense Force ( ADF) will not be able to defend everything across the entire region and the waters around us. We will need to find low-cost defensive actions.

Deterring an adversary from attempting a “cheap win” against Australia, for instance, might require the “forward presence ” of Australian troops far from our own shores.

Even if they would not be able to defend against an attack on their own, they could serve as a “trip wire ” force. This means if they were attacked, it would likely compel Australia to go to war.

So, let’s say Australia has a “forward presence ” of troops stationed in the Cocos Islands, Papua New Guinea or even the Philippines. This signals a credible commitment to use those forces to protect ourselves and our regional partners against a threat.

And should these soldiers be killed, it would likely generate public anger and a political insistence on a significant response.

While a lot of contemporary military thinking is about how to put robots and drones in harm’s way instead of our fellow citizens, some tasks, such as a “forward presence ” deterrence, can likely only be done by humans.

Clear red lines

All of this means that deterrence is not just about a country ’s capabilities – going to war is ultimately about politics and human emotion.

As such, credibility also depends on practical rituals– such as Britain holding Cabinet meetings in the Falklands and NATO hosting flag parades in the Baltics. These convey a belief over what matters enough to go to war.

For Australian deterrence to be more credible, the next iteration of the National Defence Strategy will have to be more explicit than its predecessor in spelling out what Australia would be willing to go to war over.

If our government cannot address this now, how are we going to communicate this to an adversary – and convince them of it – in a crisis?

The government is understandably reluctant to be specific about the commitments and threats it is willing and able to make in a public document, or to acknowledge the limits to Australia’s abilities.

But deterring without communicating is a contradiction in terms. We need to be explicit about what would cause Australia to resist or retaliate, even at the cost of war, in order to credibly deter an adversary from taking such an action.

This must be at the core of how the 2026 National Defense Strategy approaches deterrence as Australia’s “primary defense objective. ”

Andrew Carr is associate professor of strategy and Australian defense policy, Australian National University and Stephan Fruehling is professor, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific, Australian National University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Japan’s railgun ready to zap Chinese hypersonic missiles – Asia Times

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Japan’s ship-mounted howitzer offers a cost-effective and rapid reaction to potential weapon absorption threats by utilizing magnetic energy to release projectiles at fast velocities.

This month, Naval News reported that the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force ( JMSDF) disclosed the implementation of its advanced rocket aboard the test send JS Asuka, marking a major breakthrough in electric weaponry.

Developed by Japan’s Ground Systems Research Center ( GSRC ) under the Ministry of Defense’s Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency ( ATLA ), railgun research began in 2016 and achieved its first shipboard firing test in October 2023.

The tool system demonstrates enhanced mouth speed, reaching 2,000 meters per second, and security for firing up to 120 rounds, overcoming challenges of road degradation and ball flight stability. Recent research aims to transition to a full “gun system, ” integrating constant firing, flight stability changes and a customized fire control system.

Japan’s railgun may bolster marine missile defenses, provide fresh options for land-based artillery quite as counter-battery fire and southern strikes, and potentially contribute to intercepting certain high-speed missile threats. Nevertheless, a miniaturized energy supply remains important for functional deployment.

Japan even collaborates with France and Germany ’s Research Institute of Saint-Louis to improve rocket systems, reflecting global medical assistance. This discovery positions Japan’s howitzer as a core for potential defense systems, promising technical and administrative maturity through FY 2026.

Unlike the US Navy, which halted its rocket project in July 2021 because of considerable power, burning and rail wear challenges, Japan continues to pursue the technology to address the probable shortcomings of missile-based defense and strike capabilities.

Missiles offer powerful long-range strike options but are extremely expensive and limited by shipboard magazine capacity. US Navy destroyers and cruisers carry only 96–122 missiles in their Vertical Launch System (VLS ) cells.

During operations against Houthi rebel forces from 2023 to 2025, the US expended hundreds of difficult-to-replace, multi-million-dollar missiles to down relatively cheap drones and ballistic missiles, highlighting an unsustainable cost curve and dangerously shallow magazines.

Japan faces a similar problem. In December 2022, Kyodo News reported that Japan had only 60 % of the interceptor missile stockpiles deemed necessary for national defense.

Underscoring the missile threat, Newsweek reported in March 2025 that China has significantly increased the number of its missiles capable of hitting Japan.

According to the report, new bases in China ’s Jilin and Shandong provinces house three types of missiles—the DF-17 medium-range ballistic missile and the CJ-10 and CJ-100 ground-launched cruise missiles ( GLC M), which can penetrate Japan’s existing missile defenses.

Beyond limited magazine depth, the inability to reload VLS cells at sea presents another major constraint.

In a March 2024 article for the Georgetown Studies Review, Tyler Koteskey mentions that despite their effectiveness, US Mk41 VLS must be reloaded in port. Koteskey notes that early attempts to install foldable cranes on US vessels failed, given the challenges of loading heavy canisters of munitions in rough seas.

He adds that, depending on the availability of such facilities, returning to a port capable of reloading VLS can take weeks. He stresses that large-scale missile salvo attacks could rapidly deplete US VLS magazines in a high-end combat scenario.

Japan is already building large Aegis System Equipped Vessels ( ASEVs ) to compensate for magazine limitations. However, concentrating so much capability on a few high-value ships makes them prime targets for North Korea and China attacks.

Railguns may offer a critical solution to these missile defense bottlenecks. In a December 2011 Proceedings article, Maxwell Cooper notes that railguns can deliver many rounds at distances comparable to most missiles with the same lethality and accuracy, while at lower costs and greater quantities.

Cooper explains that railguns fire projectiles at hypersonic speeds, with the round itself using its massive kinetic energy for destructive effects —no explosive filling is required. He also suggests that rounds could be equipped with GPS units for greater accuracy and that the absence of explosive propellant frees up some magazine space.

However, while railgun rounds are smaller and cheaper than missiles, they still require substantial onboard power and projectile storage.

Further, Cooper mentions that the lack of a capable multi-mission gun has forced US Navy commanders to use expensive, limited, high-end missiles for all types of targets, creating a gap in the ability to economically engage lower-end threats such as patrol boats, undefended coastal targets and basic ballistic missiles, which would otherwise be engaged with low-cost gun rounds.

Railguns could also provide an economical means to counter saturation missile attacks. An April 2022 US Congressional Research Service ( CRS ) report mentions that it takes 300 seconds to detect a missile launch signature, track the projectile, and calculate a vector for defensive projectiles.

The report states that an 11-kilogram railgun projectile can disperse more than 500 three-gram tungsten impactors capable of destroying incoming missiles through sheer kinetic energy.

While railguns offer promise, Japan still faces critical questions: Can Japan integrate and scale the technology fast enough to counter China ’s growing missile arsenal? And, can it avoid concentrating too much capability on a few vulnerable ships?

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Indonesia bracing for flood of rerouted Chinese exports – Asia Times

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JAKARTA – At Indo Intertex, a great textiles and garments trade show staged this quarter in Jakarta, the richness and disagreement of Indonesia-China industry were on full screen.

“The business is not good, all knows that, ” said Hery, who sells textile manufacturing equipment to regional companies and, like some Indonesians, goes by one title. “There’s no wealth, probably because there are so many products coming in from China. ”

Behind him stood a great knitting equipment produced by Hengye Mach, a Chinese firm producing the models for which Hery works as a local agent.

At the show, Taiwanese firms occupied an apparent bulk of the hundreds of stalls touting models for various textile-producing processes – spinning, dyeing, printing, weaving and finishing – and selling fabrics ranging from nylon to cotton to silk.

To be sure, Indonesian manufacturers were complaining that waves of low-cost Chinese goods – often smuggled into the country to avoid high tariffs – were driving them to the wall even before US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day ” announcement of reciprocal tariffs, including a punitive 145 % tax on all Chinese goods.

But some now worry floods of cheap Chinese imports, once destined for the US, will quickly destroy regional markets, forcing underdevelopment across a wide expanse of businesses, not least the nation’s classic textiles.

Managing this is a delicate issue for Indonesia. China is Indonesia’s largest trade partner. In 2024, Indonesia imported US$ 72. 7 billion worth of goods from China – mainly telecoms equipment, computers and machinery, according to Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency ( BPS). In turn, it exported and exported$ 62. 4 billion to China– mainly coal, palm oil and ferroalloys.

China is also a key partner and investor in a number of strategic sectors in Indonesia, including infrastructure, nickel and electric vehicles. BYD is already building a factory in Indonesia.

In June last year, then-Trade Minister Zukifli Hasan announced plans to impose tariffs of up to 100-200 % on a variety of Chinese goods from China, including textiles and ceramics.

The idea was hastily shot down by other ministers who were wary of upsetting China, inviting retaliation from one of the nation’s leading investors. But local calls for protection from cheap Chinese goods have persisted.

Those calls have come from the textiles sector in particular, one of the nation’s largest domestic employers.

They became more pronounced after major producer Sritex declared bankruptcy amid the closure of several other factories that could compete on price with China ’s cheaper wares.

Chinese goods are often blamed with claims of rampant smuggling to evade the hefty duties Indonesia imposes on such goods. In December, President Prabowo Subianto, who has pushed the government to save Sritex, took a hard line on the issue.

“Textile smuggling threatens our textile industry, threatens the lives of hundreds of thousands of our workers, ” he declared. “ But if it threatens the lives of the Indonesian people, if necessary, we will sink those [smuggling ] ships! ” he said firmly.

If only it were so simple. Before Prabowo took office, former Coordinating Minister Luhut Binsar Pandjitan revealed a Chinese proposal to establish new Chinese textile factories in Kertajati, Majalengka, with the potential to employ 108,000 workers.

An apparent separate proposal led by Chinese investors sought to establish textile factories across Subang, Karawant, Brebes, Solo and Sukhoharjo, spanning the entire textile production chain from midstream to upstream processes and with an eye on exports.

Whether Chinese-owned factories in Indonesia will be able to elude the 145 % tariffs on Chinese goods is an open question as Trump intensifies his trade war by calling on nations to impose their own “secondary tariffs ” on Chinese producers.

Most of the goods that Indonesia exports to the US are low-end manufactured goods. In 2024, Indonesia exported$ 26. 3 billion worth of products to the US, according to BPS. Manufactured products like electronics, garments and footwear made up the majority of those shipments.

Demand for such goods in China from Indonesia is fairly low. Indeed, that same year, while Indonesia exported some$ 70. 7 billion worth of goods to China, 90. 9 % were commodities like iron and steel, coal, nickel, palm oil, paper pulp, foodstuffs and wood, vegetable and animal products.

All this may complicate China ’s attempts to seize upon America’s aggressive trade demands to position itself as a reliable and lucrative alternative market.

“ In the face of shocks to global order and economic globalization, China and Malaysia will stand with countries in the region to combat the undercurrents of geopolitical confrontation, as well as the counter-currents of unilateralism and protectionism, ” declared Xi at a dinner with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. “Together, we will safeguard the bright prospects of our Asian family, ” he added.

Indonesia, as the largest country in the region, forms part of these plans. While Xi did not visit Jakarta during this three-country swing through the region, he spoke with President Prabowo, who has already visited China twice since his election last year.

On April 21, China ’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at a press conference with his Indonesian counterpart that China and Indonesia should oppose “any form ” of unilateralism and trade protectionism.

The two sides should jointly accelerate regional economic integration and maintain the stability of industrial chains and supply chains, he said.

But as Indonesia looks to deal with Trump’s tariff shock, China may not be its partner of choice. The idea that China ’s tariff troubles could ultimately be Indonesia’s gain is already filtering down, despite the reciprocal 36 % Indonesian goods now face.

Mari Pangestu, a veteran technocrat newly appointed as the president ’s Special Envoy for International Trade and Multilateral Cooperation, cited Japan, South Korea and Australia as the best target markets to absorb Indonesian goods usually sold to America.

Meanwhile, negotiations for a trade deal with the European Union seem to be gathering new momentum, talks that have stalled on various contentious issues ranging from palm oil cultivation techniques to resource nationalism since 2016.

There has even been some talk that Ind-nesia might join the Trans-Pacific Partnership– an 11-country trade pact including a cluster of Southeast Asian countries alongside Japan, Australia and Canada.

With regard to China, however, the focus has been different. Looking to reassure pressured local businesses, Pangetsu has said trade liberalization measures, when implemented, will be accompanied by plans to improve local anti-dumping laws, with the implicit target being Chinese goods.

Pangetsu has suggested Indonesia could actually benefit from the trade war by encouraging companies manufacturing for the US market to relocate from China to Indonesia.

Back at the textile expo, Kasikin, an independent wholesaler, is already thinking along these lines.

“Since the pandemic, our exports have been small, ” he reflected. But “ I heard from a friend in this trade war America wants to hit China. There could be a profit for Indonesia – reindustrialization. China could be forced to open factories here. ”

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Trump tariff shockwaves already buffeting Asian shores – Asia Times

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TOKYO – The unexpected brake in South Korea’s export leaves little doubt about the degree to which Asia is in harm’s means amid Donald Trump’s tax anger.
 
In the first 20 weeks of April, South Korea’s outside shipping fell 5. 2 % year on year — the mirror image of the 5. 5 % rise for the entire month of March. US-bound imports plunged by 14. 3 % in the first 20 weeks of April.

It’s an first view of the credit damage to occur as the most protectionist US president in more than a century mountains Asia’s export-reliant markets. And it could be an sign of greater-than-feared problems to occur.
 
South Korea often acts as an early-warning method for international tone items. Its huge, empty market is on the front lines of high-tech trade sectors prone to zigs and zags in need patterns. And at the time, South Korea is signaling that the Trump 2. 0 age is about to do serious harm to economy from China to Indonesia. And the US, to.
 
There are also doubts that items are about to get even more chaotic as Trump aims his revenge-tour indignation at the US Federal Reserve, America’s most respected organization worldwide.
 
Trump 1. 0 definitely mixed it up with Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Shortly after Trump’s hand-picked Fed president took the helm in February 2018, Trump had buyer’s grief. He criticized Powell early and often, yet mulling ways to remove him.
 
This day, Trump means activity. Along with calling Powell a “loser ” and “Mr. Too Late, ” Trump is making clear that he might fire Powell at any moment. That a leader is only fire the Fed’s head for “cause” is n’t slowing Trump World over.
 
Does cratering world marketplaces give this White House wait? The S& P 500 fell another 2. 4 % on Monday, extending this year’s decline to 12. 3 %. And on the same day, The Wall Street Journal ’s newspaper website dubbed it “The Fire Jerome Powell Market Rout. ”
 
“Were Powell to be fired, the first reaction would be a huge shot of uncertainty into financial businesses, and the most dramatic jump to the return from US resources that it is possible to imagine, ” says Michael Brown, a senior research planner at buying services firm Pepperstone. “Lower, significantly lower, securities; Treasuries sold across the board; and, the money falling off a cliff. ”
 
The Fed’s much-vaunted freedom coming under threat “would notice investors across the globe selling every one US-based asset that they have, and also poses the truly terrifying prospect of upending the whole way in which the global financial system operates. If this were to happen, then the reserve status of the dollar, and the value of Treasuries, would be wiped out, probably forever in both cases. ”
 
Brown speaks for many, though, when he worries the damage “might already be done. ”
 
Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, adds that “risk to Fed independence is negative for all major US asset classes and provides a partial foretaste of what might come if President Trump – who again tweeted his demand for preemptive Fed rate cuts – were to actually try to fire Powell. ”
 
Guha notes that “we still think, more likely than not, Trump will not actually try to fire Powell and will instead blame him for the tariff-led downturn ahead. But the risk is enough to move markets. ”
 
It’s hardly promising that “the price of gold registered another record high today, overcoming yet another periodic round of profit-taking by some tactical traders, ” observes Mohamed El-Erian, chief advisor at Allianz. “This, as it benefits from the tailwind of slow and steady diversification away from the dollar by some foreign central banks and others. ”
 
Given today’s “extremely rare ” combination of lower US bond prices, stocks and the dollar sliding simultaneously, as Guha puts it, the reaction to Powell’s firing could be greater than markets understand. These dynamics, he says, “indicate higher risk premia is being required to hold US assets. Trump moving to axe Powell “would manifest in a shift from recession to stagflation trades. ”
 
When 2025 began, few in Asia had the “Trump trade” being to sell America on their Bingo cards. But as this stark reality sets in, the best-laid plans of policymakers from Seoul to Beijing to Tokyo are being upended in real time.
 
Korean officials are as disoriented as any as international chaos collides with political uncertainty at home. Yoon Suk Yeol’s leaving the presidency on April 11, post-impeachment, merely signaled the beginning of a political power struggle in Asia’s fourth-biggest economy ahead of the June 3 election.
 
This vacuum could n’t be timed any worse. South Korea, notes Frederic Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC, faces “sputtering ” growth drivers both externally and internally, adding to the risk that Korean GDP “stalled ” in the first quarter. Already, Neumann says, Trump’s tariffs are “pulling down GDP growth and investment. ”
 
South Korea, Neumann says, “will continue to face headwinds for the remainder of the year from likely slowing growth in key economies, including the United States, Europe, and China. ”
 
Fitch Ratings analyst Heakyu Chang observes that the “cyclical and structural challenges faced by Korea’s competitive and evolving banking system include domestic political turmoil and a global trade war, which have hindered business investment and weakened consumption since the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as subdued economic growth, falling interest rates, high leverage and an aging population. ”
 
These are the pre-existing conditions Korea carried into Trump’s trade war.   Following a 10 % tax on imports of metals, Trump slapped a 25 % tariff on autos and another 10 % on all other shipments. Korea faces a 25 % reciprocal tariff once Trump’s 90-day cooling-off period ends.
 
That risk has Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mo and Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun in Washington this week to begin trade negotiations with Trump World.

The auto tariff is already hitting Korea hard. Last year, Trump’s economy accounted for nearly half of Korea’s US$ 71 billion of vehicle exports. “The overall export momentum is weak, with growth slowing in April due to deteriorating trade conditions after expanding slightly in March, ” Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong told reporters last week.
 
Japan has its own headwinds to overcome, making life miserable for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.
 
The only thing falling faster than Ishiba’s approval rating — 27. 6 % at last check — are the odds that the BOJ will be raising interest rates in the months ahead. Just a week ago, many economists thought the BOJ would tighten again at its April 30-May 1.
 
But “the deteriorating outlook for the economy throws a wrench into its rate hike plans, ” says Stefan Angrick, Head of Japan at Moody’s Analytics.
 
One big problem for trade-reliant Japan is the haphazard way in which Trump is conducting his tariff policies. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, says that the “tariffs have been implemented in a way that has not been effective, and there is now a 90 % chance of what can be called a voluntary trade reset recession. ”
 
The yen, meanwhile, is up nearly 11 % so far this year, threatening Japan’s export engine. “We believe dollar weakness will continue, ” says Win Thin, a managing director at Brown Brothers Harriman.
 
A big fear in Tokyo is that, along with trashing the Fed’s credibility, Trump might move to weaken the dollar. Japan, says Citigroup currency strategist Osamu Takashima, would be a top target if Trump World engineers a dollar devaluation.
 
“At this point, we do not see a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord ’ as a concrete risk, ” Takashima notes. “However, countries such as Japan, which have sizable foreign currency reserves and whose currency is undervalued, would tend to be the target in this case. ”
 
Overall, Angrick says, “the BOJ’s path just got a lot trickier. The deteriorating outlook for the economy throws a wrench into its rate hike plans. We still think the bank will press ahead with a rate hike in June, unless the economy takes a sharper turn south. But the broader picture has flipped. After months of worrying that the BOJ might fall behind the curve on hikes, the bigger risk now is that it tightens into a downturn. Buckle up. ”
 
Then there’s China. Last week, President Xi Jinping’s government agreed to sit down with Trump’s trade negotiators with a few preconditions. So far, Team Xi has rebuffed Trump’s demands for a series of anticipatory concessions. China also goes in armed with a solid 5. 4 % year-on-year growth rate in the first quarter.
 
Team Xi has demonstrated it ’s willing to live with considerable pain to avoid giving away the store to Trump’s White House. China has considerable fiscal and monetary space to support Asia’s biggest economy, even with Trump hiking tariffs on all Chinese goods to 145 %.

Beijing is also proving to be a worthier sparring partner than Trump probably expected. Case in point: reports that Beijing is prodding trading partners not to cut bilateral trade deals with Washington or slap “secondary tariffs ” on imports coming from specific countries with close China ties.

China, meanwhile, has steadily redirected its trade away from the US to Southeast Asia, Global South nations and Europe.
 
But the “damage from the trade war will show up in the macro data next month, ” says Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, adding that the “high frequency indicators suggest exports have slowed sharply in the region. ”
 
That’s why economist Lisheng Wang at Goldman Sachs thinks the “urgency for more policy easing is on the rise and fiscal expansion will likely do most of the heavy lifting to stabilize growth, though this should be still insufficient to fully offset the severe external shocks. ”
 
There’s also a question about whether slowing growth among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies and the rest of the Global South might complicate China ’s export diversification strategy. Trump-generated shockwaves are coming for these economies, too. So are higher global interest rates as Trump meddles with the Fed and his tariffs provoke the so-called “bond vigilantes ” to act.
 
East Asia’s economic miracle was born of – and sustained by – exports to the West. Though China has made important strides in weaning itself off the US consumer, the transition won’t necessarily be smooth. Losing US export markets will change dynamics for everything from local consumption to tourism to the health of banks for Beijing and other governments across Asia.

“China’s economic policy challenges, including its efforts to counter deflationary pressure and control financial leverage, will be heightened by the intensifying trade war with the US, potentially influencing issuer credit ratings, ” says Fitch analyst Duncan Innes-Ker.

Innes-Ker notes that “we believe domestic demand is likely to become the key driver of China ’s growth again and domestic deflationary pressures may be exacerbated. This reinforces our belief the authorities will deploy sustained fiscal stimulus to support growth, weakening public finances. ”

With Korea flashing red, Japan slowing down and China ’s exports in unprecedented jeopardy, the Trump 2. 0 shockwaves are only just beginning in Asia.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Australians hate Trump’s policies and distrust US: poll – Asia Times

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Australians strongly disagree with important procedures of US President Donald Trump, and have largely lost faith in the United States to behave appropriately in the world, according to the Lowy Institute’s 2025 surveys.

Despite this, 80 % of people say the alliance is “very ” or “fairly ” important for Australia’s security, only fractionally down on last year’s 83 %.

The poll also found people nearly evenly divided on whether Peter Dutton ( 35 % ) or Anthony Albanese ( 34 % ) would be the better leader to manage Australia’s relations with Trump.

But Albanese rated much more strongly than Dutton as better able to manage Australia’s relationship with China and President Xi Jinping ( 45 % to 25 % ).

2025 Lowy Institute Poll

Albanese was also well ahead ( 41%-29 % ) when people were asked who would be more competent at handling Australia’s foreign policy over the next three years.

The surveys comes as the “Trump impact” has overshadowed the battle and exceedingly worked against Dutton.

Labor has cast Dutton as having looked to the US for procedures, such as his proposed cuts to the public support. It has labelled him “DOGEy Dutton”, a reference to Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency ( DOGE ).

The Lowy surveys of 2,117 folks was taken between March 3 and 16. This was after Trump had announced plans for a 25 % tariff on steel and aluminium imports, and other tariffs, but before his “Liberation Day ” regime, which saw a 10 % general tariff hitting all countries.

2025 Lowy Institute Poll

Trust in the US has plummeted since the last Lowy poll in 2024, with nearly two-thirds of respondents ( 64 % ) having little or no trust in the US to act responsibly in the world, compared with 44 % a year before.

This is a new lower in the poll’s two-decade past. Trust fell drastically among older citizens. Trust was now comparatively small among younger citizens, and fell by a smaller percentage.

On various Trump stances, the poll found Australians most disapproving (89 % ) of Trump’s pressure on Denmark to sell or hand over its self-governing territory of Greenland to the US.

2025 Lowy Institute Poll

More than eight in ten ( 81 % ) disapproved of Trump’s use of tariffs to pressure other countries to comply with his administration ’s objectives. Three-quarters disapproved of the US withdrawing from the World Health Organization ( 76 % ) and from international climate change agreements ( 74 % ).

In addition, three-quarters ( 74 % ) disapproved of Trump negotiating a deal on the future of Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin that might require Ukraine to accept a loss of territory.

The extraordinary Oval Office battle between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Vice President JD Vance took place just before the review.

Australians also disapproved of the US cutting spending on foreign aid ( 64 % ) and undertaking mass deportations of undocumented migrants ( 56 % ).

On Trump’s demand that US allies spend more on defense, people were, however, evenly divided ( 49 % approved/disapproved ).

Michelle Grattan is academic brother, University of Canberra

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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When Pope Francis spoke to Asia Times on China – Asia Times

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Pope Francis gave his first-ever meeting on China and the Chinese people on January 28, 2016, to then-Asia Times journalist and China Renmin University senior scientist Francesco Sisci. The Pope urged the world not to worry China ’s rapid rise in a traditional one-hour appointment at the Vatican.

He said the Taiwanese people are in a good time and delivered a message of hope, peace and reconciliation as an alternative to battle, hot or cold. The pope even sent Foreign New Year’s welcome to the Chinese people and President Xi Jinping, the first extended by a Pope to a Chinese president for the Lunar New Year in 2,000 years.

Sisci’s special interview took place in a Vatican house decorated with a mural of the Holy Mary Undoer of Knots, in which she performs the mystery of untying difficult twists. It is republished here on the situation of the Pope’s departure.

ROME– He felt it quickly, or but I sensed, and he tried to put me at ease. He was best. I was in fact frightened. I had spent long periods hammering down every aspect of the questions I was going to ask, and he had wanted time to think and churned them over.

I asked for an appointment on broad social and intellectual issues concerning all Taiwanese, of which over 99 % are no Catholic. I did n’t like to touch on religious or political concerns, of which another Popes, at other times had spoken.

I hoped he could present to frequent Chinese his enormous animal emotion by speaking for the first time ever on issues that worry them regularly – the rupture of the classic relatives, their difficulties in being understood and understanding the western world, their sense of guilt from earlier experiences such as the Cultural Revolution, etc. He did it and gave the Chinese and citizens concerned about China ’s hard fall motives for hope, peace and mediation with each other.

The Pope believes the Chinese are in a good action. He says they should not be scared of this, nor does the rest of the world. He also believes the Chinese have a wonderful legacy of knowledge that will strengthen them and everyone and will support all to find a quiet way ahead. This appointment is, in some respect, the Pope’s manner of blessing China.

Sisci: What is China for you? How did you think China to become as a young man, given that China, for Argentina, is not the East but the far West? What does Matteo Ricci mean to you?

Pope Francis :  For me, China has always been a research point of glory. A wonderful country. But more than a state, a wonderful culture, with an unlimited wisdom. For me, as a child, whenever I read something about China, it had the ability to persuade my enthusiasm. I have enthusiasm for China.

Eventually, I looked into Matteo Ricci’s career and I saw how this man felt the same thing in the specific method I did, admiration, and how he was able to enter into speech with this wonderful society, with this age-old knowledge. He was able to “encounter ” it.

When I was young, and China was spoken of, we thought of the Great Wall. The rest was not known in my homeland. But as I looked more and more into the matter, I had an experience of encounter which was very different, in time and manner, to that experienced by Ricci.

Yet I came across something I had not expected. Ricci’s experience teaches us that it is necessary to enter into dialogue with China, because it is an accumulation of wisdom and history. It is a land blessed with many things. And the Catholic Church, one of whose duties is to respect all civilizations, before  this  civilization, I would say, has the duty to respect it with a capital “R. ” The Church has great potential to receive culture.

The other day I had the opportunity to see the paintings of another great Jesuit, Giuseppe Castiglione– who also had the Jesuit virus ( laughs ). Castiglione knew how to express beauty, the experience of openness in dialogue: receiving from others and giving of one’s self on a wavelength that is “civilized ” of civilizations.

When I say “civilized”, I do not mean only “educated ” civilizations, but also civilizations that encounter one another. Also, I don’t know whether it is true but they say that Marco Polo was the one who brought pasta noodles to Italy ( laughs ).   So it was the Chinese who invented them. I don’t know if this is true. But I say this in passing.

This is the impression I have, great respect.   And more than this,   when I crossed China for the first time, I was told in the aircraft: “Within ten minutes we will enter Chinese airspace, and send your greeting”. I confess that I felt very emotional, something that does not usually happen to me. I was moved  to be flying over this great richness of culture and wisdom.

Sisci:  China, for the first time in its thousands of years of history, is emerging from its own environment and opening to the world, creating unprecedented challenges for itself and for the world. You have spoken of a third world war that is furtively advancing: what challenges does this present in the quest for peace?

Pope Francis :  Being afraid is never a good counselor.   Fear is not a good counselor. If a father and a mother are fearful when they have an adolescent son, they will not know how to deal with him well.

In other words, we must not fear challenges of any kind, since everyone, male and female, has within them the capacity to find ways of co-existing, of respect and mutual admiration. And it is obvious that so much culture and so much wisdom, and in addition, so much technical knowledge – we have only to think of age-old medicinal techniques– cannot remain enclosed within a country; they tend to expand, to spread, to communicate.

Man tends to communicate, a civilization tends to communicate. It is evident that when communication happens in an aggressive tone to defend oneself, then wars result. But I would not be fearful. It is a great challenge to keep the balance of peace. Here we have Grandmother Europe, as I said in Strasbourg. It appears that she is no longer Mother Europe. I hope she will be able to reclaim that role again.

And she receives from this age-old country an increasingly rich contribution. And so it is necessary to accept the challenge and to run the risk of balancing this exchange for peace. The Western world, the Eastern world and China all have the capacity to maintain the balance of peace and the strength to do so. We must find the way, always through dialogue; there is no other way. ( He opens his arms as if extending an embrace. )

Encounter is achieved through dialogue. The true balance of peace is realized through dialogue. Dialogue does not mean that we end up with a compromise, half the cake for you and the other half for me. This is what happened in Yalta and we saw the results. No, dialogue means: look, we have got to this point, I may or may not agree, but let us walk together; this is what it means to build. And the cake stays whole, walking together.

The cake belongs to everyone, it is humanity, culture. Carving up the cake, as in Yalta, means dividing humanity and culture into small pieces. And culture and humanity cannot be carved into small pieces. When I speak about this large cake I mean it in a positive sense. Everyone has an influence to bear on the common good of all. ( The Pope smiles and asks: “ I don’t know if the example of the cake is clear for the Chinese? ”, I nod: “ I think so. ” )

Sisci: China has experienced over the last few decades tragedies without comparison. Since 1980, the Chinese have sacrificed that which has always been most dear to them, their children.

For the Chinese, these are very serious wounds. Among other things, this has left enormous emptiness in their consciences and, somehow, an extremely deep need to be reconciled with themselves and to forgive themselves. In the Year of Mercy, what message can you offer the Chinese people?

Francesco Sisci interviewing Pope Francis in a 2016 photo. Image: Author Supplied.

Pope Francis :  The aging of a population and of humanity is happening in many places. Here in Italy the birth rate is almost below zero, and in Spain too, more or less. The situation in France, with its policy of assistance to families, is improving. And it is obvious that populations age.

They age and they do not have children. In Africa, for example, it was a pleasure to see children in the streets.   Here in Rome, if you walk around, you will see very few children. Perhaps behind this there is the fear you are alluding to, the mistaken perception, not that we will simply fall behind, but that we will fall into misery, so therefore, let’s not have children.

There are other societies that have opted for the contrary. For example, during my trip to Albania, I was astonished to discover that the average age of the population is approximately 40 years. There exist young countries; I think Bosnia and Herzegovina is the same. Countries that have suffered and opt for youth. Then there is the problem of work. Something that China does not have, because it has the capacity to offer work both in the countryside and in the city.

And it is true, the problem for China of not having children must be very painful; because the pyramid is then inverted and a child has to bear the burden of his father, mother, grandfather and grandmother. And this is exhausting, demanding, disorientating. It is not the natural way. I understand that China has opened up possibilities on this front.

Sisci: How should these challenges of families in China be faced, given that they find themselves in a process of profound change and no longer correspond to the traditional Chinese model of the family?

Pope Francis :  Taking up the theme, in the Year of Mercy, what message can I give to the Chinese people? The history of a people is always a path. A people at times walks more quickly, at times more slowly, at times it pauses, at times it makes a mistake and goes backwards a little, or takes the wrong path and has to retrace its steps to follow the right way.

But when a people moves forward, this does not worry me because it means they are making history. And I believe that the Chinese people are moving forward and this is their greatness. It walks, like all populations, through lights and shadows.

Looking at this past – and perhaps the fact of not having children creates a complex – it is healthy to take responsibility for one’s own path. Well, we have taken this route, something here did not work at all, so now other possibilities are opened up.

Other issues come into play: the selfishness of some of the wealthy sectors who prefer not to have children, and so forth. They have to take responsibility for their own path. And I would go further: do not be bitter, but be at peace with your own path, even if you have made mistakes. I cannot say my history was bad, that I hate my history. ( The Pope gives me a penetrating look. )

No, every people must be reconciled with its history as its own path, with its successes and its mistakes. And this reconciliation with one’s own history brings much maturity, much growth. Here I would use the word mentioned in the question: mercy. It is healthy for a person to have mercy towards himself, not to be sadistic or masochistic.

That is wrong. And I would say the same for a people: it is healthy for a population to be merciful towards itself. And this nobility of soul … I don’t know whether or not to use the word forgiveness, I don’t know.

But to accept that this was my path, to smile, and to keep going. If one gets tired and stops, one can become bitter and corrupt. And so, when one takes responsibility for one’s own path, accepting it for what it was, this allows one’s historical and cultural richness to emerge, even in difficult moments.

And how can it be allowed to emerge? Here we return to the first question: in dialogue with today’s world. To dialogue does not mean that I surrender myself, because at times there is the danger, in the dialogue between different countries, of hidden agendas, namely, cultural colonizations.

It is necessary to recognize the greatness of the Chinese people, who have always maintained their culture. And their culture – I am not speaking about ideologies that there may have been in the past – their culture was not imposed.

Sisci: The country ’s economic growth proceeded at an overwhelming pace but this has also brought with it human and environmental disasters, which Beijing is striving to confront and resolve.

At the same time, the pursuit of work efficiency is burdening families with new costs: sometimes children and parents are separated due to the demands of work. What message can you give them?

Pope Francis :  I feel rather like a “mother-in-law ” giving advice on what should be done ( laughs ). I would suggest a healthy realism; reality must be accepted from wherever it comes. This is our reality; as in football, the goalkeeper must catch the ball from wherever it comes. Reality must be accepted for what it is. Be realistic. This is our reality.

First, I must be reconciled with reality. I don’t like it, I am against it, it makes me suffer, but if I don’t come to terms with it, I won’t be able to do anything. The second step is to work to improve reality and to change its direction.

Now, you see that these are simple suggestions, somewhat commonplace. But to be like an ostrich, that hides its head in the sand so as not to see reality, nor accept it, is no solution.   Well then, let us discuss, let us keep searching, let us continue walking, always on the path, on the move. The water of a river is pure because it flows ahead; still water becomes stagnant. It is necessary to accept reality as it is, without disguising it, without refining it, and to find ways of improving it.  

Well, here is something that is very important. If this happens to a company which has worked for twenty years and there is a business crisis, then there are few avenues of creativity to improve it. On the contrary, when it happens in an age-old country, with its age-old history, its age-old wisdom, its age-old creativity, then tension is created between the present problem and this past of ancient richness.

And this tension brings fruitfulness as it looks to the future. I believe that the great richness of China today lies in looking to the future from a present that is sustained by the memory of its cultural past. Living in tension, not in anguish, and the tension is between its very rich past and the challenge of the present which has to be carried forth into the future; that is, the story does n’t end here.

Sisci: On the occasion of the upcoming Chinese New Year of the Monkey, would you like to send a greeting to the Chinese people, to the Authorities and to President Xi Jinping?

Pope Francis :  On the eve of the New Year, I wish to convey my best wishes and greetings to President Xi Jinping and to all the Chinese people. And I wish to express my hope that they never lose their historical awareness of being a great people, with a great history of wisdom, and that they have much to offer to the world.

The world looks to this great wisdom of yours. In this New Year, with this awareness, may you continue to go forward in order to help and cooperate with everyone in caring for our common home and our common peoples. Thank you!

Francesco Sisci  is currently director of the Appia Institute think tank.

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