South Korean arms to Ukraine as a three-course meal – Asia Times

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Seoul stated that it would rethink providing martial assistance to Kyiv after Moscow and Pyongyang signed a de facto Mutual Defense Treaty in June 2024. This is important because South Korea has a longstanding policy that forbids the source and export of weapons to effective conflict areas.

Due to the deployment of Korean People’s Army (KPA ) soldiers on the frontlines of the 2022 Russo-Ukrainian War, the rethinking process of this policy may be accelerated. Predictably, Moscow is prepared to promote its ties with Pyongyang over Seoul, with such bias good to&nbsp, endure&nbsp, in the future. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

From the perspective of the Republic of Korea ( ROK ), defense and military cooperation between a Russia that is desperate to win this war and a Kim Jong Un regime that is aware that it can press for a favorable deal to exchange the North’s weapons and men for military technologies ranging from missiles to submarines and even nuclear weapons greatly increases the potential for destabilization of an already fragile intra-Korean relationship and brinksmanship in the Korean peninsula.

In response, a previous article argued that the ROK should provide military assistance to Kyiv, citing justifications like i ) upholding the UN’s ( UN) norm regarding Ukraine’s right to legitimate self-defense, ii ) expressing strong opposition to Moscow regarding any proposed military technology aid to the DPRK, iii ) demonstrating the efficacy of South Korean “K-arms” in a context of rapidly expanding market share, and iv) setting the stage for

There should be political will and security concerns for the Yoon Suk Yeol leadership to grant approval for arms shipments to Kyiv when Moscow suddenly crosses Seoul’s dark line by providing weapon and/or nuclear technology to Pyongyang. To illustrate South Korea’s possible arms shipments to Ukraine during the ongoing conflict, this article provides a three-course cooking comparison.

Appetizer munitions

A small dish that is served before the principal sure to whet the appetite is called an appetizer. Similar to “appetizer” weapons, limited quantities of selected weapons could be used to assess suitability and effectiveness, whetting the Ukrainians ‘ interest in having it included in a upcoming “main course” sale or to give other nations the motivation to consider taking them on as an inspiration for future purchases.

Two such South Korean military “appetizers” are the AT-1K Raybolt anti-tank guided missile ( ATGM ) and the KP-SAM Chiron surface-to-air missile ( SAM ).

The Raybolt ATGM can either be operated by little, armored-carrier-mounted teams of soldiers or mounted on light strike or armoured vehicles, giving these units the ability to meet and outsmart the tank-mounted armaments’ stunning variety. Its infrared-imaging targeting method also increases affect accuracy and mortality, while being ideal for both day and evening operations.

Finally, its warhead is designed to be most effective and penetration-proof against contemporary tanks and armoured vehicles equipped with explosive reactive armor, allowing Ukrainian soldiers to use the asset to counteract Russian ground forces by destroying Russian tanks and personnel carriers.

A small first shipment of Raybolt ATGMs may help to replenish Russian stocks of West-supplied Javelin missiles and reduce any anti-tank missile shortage in the continuing land conflict.

The ability to compare the Raybolt’s functionality to the Javelin, the most important asset in its weapons course, would be crucial for forthcoming arms development projects, as well as being a fantastic sales advertisement if the asset produces significant wartime results for Ukraine’s regional defense, according to LIG Nex1 and Hanwha Vision, the companies that manufacture AT-1K missiles and launchers, both.

A Chiron man-portable SAM program positioned on top of a high-rise tower. Image: Korea Defense Blog&nbsp,

For the&nbsp, Chiron&nbsp, SAM, it, too, is infrared home, scalable with smaller army sections, systems-integrable onto several military vehicles, and appropriate in various operating environments. It has the ability to shoot down low-flying aircraft and helicopters while maintaining its comparatively effective underwater drone attack capability, which is essential for the continued land war.

KP-SAM’s allure is obvious given that it is only available in limited quantities for a Ukraine that is desperately in need of missile stocks to strengthen its short-range air defense. It could either be used to help strengthen Ukraine’s Integrated Air Defence System ( IADS ) by providing a missile umbrella to protect more Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure from Moscow’s suicide drones and cruise missiles, or be used to strengthen air defense protection for frontline troops to maintain their defensive formations.

Finally, the high combat performance of the KP-SAM in warfighting scenarios could open the door for potential buyers looking for a more affordable and deployable option than the Javelins given that countries like Romania have already chosen to purchase the Chiron. This would encourage more military assistance for Ukraine in its defense against Russia and exports of defense to the European Union.

Main course munitions

The main course constitutes the most substantial and essential component of any meal in Western cuisine. Correspondingly, metaphorically describing any armament type as a “main course” implies that such weapons are critical for the war’s conduct.

Ironically, as Ukraine attempts to address its issues of ammunition shortages that have resulted in it losing ground on numerous fronts in the primarily land-based war so far, anyone could provide ammunition for the country at this time.

The visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to a Pennsylvania-based munitions factory in September 2024 is evidence of the importance placed on restocking the country’s ammunition stockpiles. Such “main courses” could include ammunition for rifles and machine guns, grenades, mortar bombs and artillery shells for howitzers, amongst others.

With global ammunition supply chains under significant strain owing to the Covid-19 pandemic and the eruption of multiple conflict flashpoints, Ukraine’s survival and territorial defense is, perhaps, contingent upon the expeditious and sustained provision of ammunition.

Given the small, yet steady shift in the direction of favorable political winds in the ROK’s parliament regarding the arming of Ukraine, South Korea’s developed military-industrial complex is capable of quick shipment rolls and remarkable speed in weapon deliveries, similar to the carbohydrates of a main meal.

With the US receiving 550, 000 155mm artillery shells over the past year, which allowed Washington to free up corresponding munitions for Kyiv, the ROK has already demonstrated its capacity to produce and supply munitions. Additionally, South Korea could also supply 105mm shells compatible with North Atlantic Treaty Organization ( NATO ) STANAG-compliant military assets, many of which are currently used by Ukraine.

Since the ROK has a stockpile of about 3.4 million 105mm shells and is relegating its 105mm artillery to reserve service as it&nbsp, transitions to 155mm artillery assets, it is well-placed to provide ammunition to assist in Ukraine’s defense of Russia.

Missiles for dessert

Given that both ammunition and SAM missiles can be classified as having a limited offensive range, making exporting political authorization more appealing to the ROK is important to note. However, if the current war is to be concluded on Kyiv’s terms, more politically contentious “dessert” weapons might be required to be presented onto the meal table.

While Ukraine could continue to resist Russia into 2025 and even 2026 using the above-mentioned “main course” and “appetizer” arms, the cumulative suffering inflicted upon the former is unconscionable. Hence, it would be morally preferable to expedite the end of this war in Ukraine’s favor. One of the means to this end is the supply of “dessert” weapons like the Hyunmoo series of ballistic missiles, specifically the Hyunmoo-1A and Hyunmoo-2A.

Both Hyunmoo versions are guided land-attack missiles with ranges of 180km and 300km, while carrying powerful 500kg and 1000kg warheads respectively. Furthermore, both are older variants of the series with the 1A already retired and the 2A having a 20-year service record.

A still from a video showing a test launch of the Hyunmoo-4 SRBM, currently the largest South Korean ballistic missile. Photo: YTN NEWS CAPTURE

Hence, South Korea’s military readiness should not be impacted if 1A stocks were exported to Ukraine. The development of the Hyunmoo-4 and 5 variants can accelerate the timeline for the stand-down of the 2A versions, opening up potential room for export to Ukraine.

Being given the Hyunmoo 1A and 2A would significantly increase the momentum of this war in Kyiv’s favor, given the unfortunate reality that Ukraine only has long-range attack drones with small warheads and insufficient stocks of Neptune cruise missiles.

Old though the 1A and 2A versions might be, their extensive ranges and heavy warheads would enable devastating strikes on Russian munition/fuel depots, troop/vehicle garrisons, command and control facilities, and other infrastructure critical to the Russian invasion, previously considered relatively safe by Moscow due to the lack of Ukrainian long-range strike capabilities.

Should Seoul provide these crucial “desserts” to Kyiv, such complaints ring hollow because it is widely known that Pyongyang and Tehran are already providing ballistic missiles for Russia’s unjust war. The export of these assets could transform Ukraine’s strategy so far, bringing the three-course meal to an end in itself. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

In closing, despite the incorrect attribution of the phrase” The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing” to Irish statesman Edmund Burke, it still has a significant place in Ukraine’s ongoing defense against Russia’s illegal invasion, a flagrant violation of the overarching principle of state sovereignty in international law.

With its unique and unmatched defense production capabilities, the ROK is well-positioned to act as a force for good in international affairs and take action by providing a three-course meal military aid package to Kyiv, with significant reputational and economic gains resulting from such a move, in spite of President Yoon’s commitment to make the ROK one of the world’s top four arms suppliers by 2027.

Nah Liang Tuang ( PhD ), a research fellow at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University, is a member of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies ( RSIS), an affiliate of the Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies ( IDSS).

Thomas Lim is a senior analyst for RSIS’s Military Studies Program. The authors ‘ own points and arguments in this article do not represent any of IDSS or RSIS’s positions.

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Trump vowed to be a ‘dictator’ on day one. So what will he do? – Asia Times

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It’s a fool’s errand to try to determine what Donald Trump will do in a second term in office.

It is even more difficult given that Trump has prioritized winning re-election far more than disclosing a comprehensive policy plan. Kamala Harris used the same strategy in many ways to keep an ambiguous plan agenda, though certainly with less success.

Having said that, Trump returns to the White House after serving in the Oval Office for four more years as president. Although his several times in the public eye may not be exactly what he will do, they do give us some sense of his interests.

Trump’s confusing policy plan

Some point to Trump’s coverage agenda as lacking both persistence and consistency.

On the one hand, he has praised his contenders for the Supreme Court for overturning Roe v. Wade. On the other hand, he cautioned opponents of abortion on the campaign trail and advised fellow Democrats not to pass traditional limitations.

On the one hand, some of his top officials wrote the ostensibly liberal and contentious Project 2025 statement from his first term in office. On the other hand, he claims he has never even read the document and distanced himself from the authors.

And on one hand, Elon Musk, one of Trump’s biggest backers and economic donors, has claimed he could reduce the size of state, government spending and also a number of national authorities. Most economists agree that the Trump administration’s economic plan may significantly increase the national deficit more than Harris ‘ plans did.

It should be noted, nevertheless, there certainly is one area where Trump has not wavered: business.

We can anticipate continuity from Trump because he has had a protectionist position for several decades. Nevertheless, it’s still unclear whether his Republican colleagues in rural America will help these protectionist measures.

The “dictator on time one” mission is on the agenda.

Trump’s statement about being a despot “only on time one” was the most well-known – and probably the most renowned – of his promises for his returning to the White House.

This ode became a well-known part of the stump speeches by the Biden and Harris efforts against Trump. It’s probably less well-known what specifically he would do.

He had immediately promised to develop digging for fossil fuels and near the border with Mexico right away. On the campaign path, he broadened his first-day interests to even include:

    firing Special Counsel Jack Smith, who has charged Trump with two counts of national indictment.

  • pardoning some of the protesters who were imprisoned after the protests of January 6, 2021
  • the estimated 11 million people who are deported to the United States without having a legitimate emigration position are beginning to deport in large numbers.
  • and ending what he has called” Green New Deal atrocities” within President Joe Biden’s platform for tackling climate shift.

Trump likewise, in a surprise to immigration protesters, said he would also “automatically” offer non-citizens in the country continuous citizenship when they graduate from college.

What about his Cabinet?

The proverb that “personnel is plan” applies to both Republican and Democratic services.

When Biden appointed Kurt Campbell to lead the White House’s Indo-Pacific work on the National Security Council, the shift made clear that an “allies and lovers” approach may establish his administration’s plan in Asia.

And when Trump chose Mike Pence to get his running mate in 2016, it was evident to traditional Republicans that Trump did have a” Republican inside” in a powerful place within his administration.

Trump has made it clear that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Musk may play significant roles in his management, but it is still unclear what exactly they will do.

Kennedy has pledged to” Make America Healthy Again,” and Musk has promised to cut back on federal regulations and bureaucracy. Practically speaking, it’s still too early to say what kind of position the two celebrities will play, especially since Trump’s cabinet nominees does require Senate verification.

While the Republicans are going to control the Senate again, this does n’t guarantee it will support his appointees. A lean Republican majority in the Senate in 2017 did not support all of Trump’s plan.

Trump’s second term in office may once more be defined by the high staff turnover that led to his next word. Sometimes his appointments did n’t have much coherence, either. For instance, Trump’s national security officials, Michael Flynn and John Bolton, had little in common beyond a shared opposition for the Obama government’s plans.

Matt Pottinger, the administration’s assistant national security advisor, remained in the end for nearly the entire day. He not merely led many of Trump’s corporate guidelines toward Asia, but also defined the term” proper competitors”, which will probably outlast both the Biden and Trump services.

The more things change, the more they stay the same

In the end, if Trump’s second term in office is anything like his first, then the debate over his personnel appointments and policy priorities will continue for some time.

Therefore, it is less important to speculate on Trump’s intentions than to concentrate on the long-term structural trends that would have continued regardless of who is in office.

After all, the Biden administration maintained or sought to expand many of the Trump administration’s efforts abroad, including his” Free and Open Indo-Pacific” policy, tariffs, and the Abraham Accords that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states.

The Biden administration’s domestic policies expanded with Trump’s, which included expanding the Child Tax Credit, and enforcing new restrictions on large technology companies.

Additionally, even a Harris administration would have been improbable about sending US troops to the Middle East or opposing NATO allies ‘ increased defense spending.

Trump will undoubtedly remain unpredictable and unconventional, but it would be foolish to assume that there are n’t clear areas of continuity that started before and will continue long after him.

Jared Mondschein is director of research, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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How China plans to rule the world in AI – Asia Times

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This content was first published by Pacific Forum. It is republished with authority.

Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, said in 2017 that “whoever takes the crown in this realm will rule the world.” He was speaking to some kids about the risks of any nation monopolizing developments in artificial intelligence.

In our present political environment, the United States and China appear to be focusing on AI as the fresh front-runner in the great power fight. This is obvious from the increased amount of AI activities, policies, and actions the two nations have engaged in late.

While the US’s and the EU’s actions on AI have been a regular part of media coverage, the first complete law on AI, the EU’s, have not been properly noted, aside from in-depth scientific analyses that are frequently difficult for the layperson to access or biased coverage that does not do justice to the scientific content of China’s strategies.

This article will cover China’s strategy for influencing AI management and growth on a global level while remaining limited to what is contained in China’s papers on AI while providing some framework where necessary.

It will provide insight into how China intends to utilize AI in its pay for international influence. Ideally, this will tell the discussion on global AI governance in the general public and function as a resource for experts and policymakers working on global AI developments.

Understanding China’s strategy may assist other actors in leadership and AI developments in general in preparing and responding appropriately. It is important that the earth keeps an eye on China seeing that it is very motivated to result in the new century of Artificial Intelligence and that whatever China does is affect us all.

The ways in which China intends to dominate the world through AI are summarized in the following. These were derived from a review of , China’s top AI plan documents , and a relevant analysis, with an emphasis on obvious representations of China’s method for influencing AI management worldwide and its strategies for dominating AI improvements at an international level.

Recognizing AI as a corporate technology for competing at a global stage

China recognizes that AI has implications for national security, and uses it as a proper technology for advancing its position among the most ingeniously competitive nations of the world.

In the New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan ( NGAIDP ) of 2017, the People’s Republic of China ( PRC ) made note of the increasing complexity that China faces in terms of national security and international competition in a rapidly emerging world. It therefore recommended that China “must, looking at the world, take the development of AI to the national strategic level with systemic layout, take the initiative in planning, firmly seize the strategic initiative in the new stage of international competition in AI development, “&nbsp, to create

China seems to have recognized the transformative impacts of AI techniques across cultures and markets and is seeking to place itself carefully. By adopting a properly planned approach to AI that aims to create competitive advantages in new markets while also using AI to defend its national security interests, the PRC aims to become a “global science and technology power.”

Keeping up knowledge of one’s strengths and weaknesses

In its bid to utilize AI for global profitability, China looks to strengthen its areas of strength. The NGAIDP took note of this:

China has made significant progress in the field of AI as a result of many years of constant accumulation, with the number of global scientific and technological papers published and the number of patents ranked second in the world, while also achieving significant breakthroughs in some of the most important areas of technology.

The PRC went on to list different areas of China’s scientific leadership and accomplishments, like as voice recognition, physical recognition, professional and service robots, smart monitoring and biological identification.

China, however, appears to be open-minded about its abilities and acknowledges the areas where it needs to improve. The PRC pointed out that despite China’s accomplishments in the fields listed, there is still a gap between, in the eyes of China, and other developed nations that are particularly concerned about achieving significant original results in fields like basic theory, core algorithms, key equipment, high-end chips, and more.

China looks to address these and other areas through urgently improving basic infrastructure, policies, regulations, and standards systems.

identifying opportunities and monitoring global trends in AI development

China does n’t take the risk of stumbling over its approach and dumping its resources wherever it wants to go in order to realize its AI plans. Instead, the PRC looks to be opportunistic and utilizing-maximizing. China will “accurately grasp the global development trends of AI, find the appropriate openings for breakthroughs and directions for the main thrust,” according to the NGAIDP.

The PRC intends to closely monitor global AI developments through R&amp, D initiatives and studies that evaluate general trends. By capitalizing on opportunities revealed in crucial areas by trendwatching, China hopes to lead the world by setting the trend itself.

gaining the advantage of the first-mover

The phrase “first-mover advantage” is a recurring phrase in China’s AI policy documents. This is indicative of the PRC’s intent to drive novel discovery and application of AI systems. The Ministry of Education released the 2018 Artificial Intelligence Action Plan for Institutions of Higher Education ( Action Plan ) to help with this goal. One of the goals of the Action Plan was stated as follows:” That China can gain a first-mover advantage in the development of artificial intelligence.”

The implication of this is that China preconceives that certain benefits of AI will only accrue to first-movers and it works towards realizing these.

consciously distributing resources

According to them, money makes the world revolve. AI is no exception and China understands this. China will “fully use existing finances, bases, and other such stored resources,” according to the NGAIDP, and it will “fully plan the allocation of international and domestic innovation resources.”

The PRC intends to use policy incentives to inform its use of inputs from its financial administration experts, aiming to make the best use of its resources for pursuing innovation on a global scale.

Therefore, to realize its vision of being a global science and technology power, China is prioritizing a conscientious allocation of its financial and other resources in its domestic and international policies.

achieving technological and theoretical advancements in AI

Basic science funding is typically a subject of negative effects when budget cuts are made in many nations because the returns are frequently not immediately apparent or applicable. However, China has identified this area as a critical area that will inform its capacity to develop world-leading AI systems and drive its economic ascent to global power.

By 2025, China will have significant advances in fundamental theories of AI, with the NGAIDP predicting that AI will become the main driver of China’s industrial upgrading and economic transformation.

China’s ambitions are further exemplified in the Action Plan, which states that it will “make a number of original achievements of international significance” and “demonstrate a world-class level in some theoretical research, innovative technology, and application.”

By achieving groundbreaking progress in new-generation AI theory and technology systems, China hopes to contribute to AI applications in fields such as intelligent manufacturing, intelligent medicine and national defense construction, all of which it expects will greatly expand and strengthen its economy.

And the results are already arriving. China has filed the most AI patents since 2020, leading the world in terms of publication figures, and as of 2022, it has filed the most. These results are also aided by China ‘s&nbsp, expanding domestic market and AI-promoting privacy-weak regulations.

promoting globalization and entering global markets

China hopes that the cumulative effects of its AI-related theoretical and technological advancements will have a bigger impact on global markets. The NGAIDP predicted that China will achieve “world-leading levels” in AI theories, technologies, and applications by 2030, making it the&nbsp, “world’s primary AI innovation center”.

The PRC hopes that having concrete results from the use of AI in sophisticated society and economic arrangements will lay the foundation for its rise to economic dominance among the most creative countries on the world stage. China is also determined to actively support its domestic AI businesses and brands to achieve a global leading status and facilitate international cooperation with leading foreign AI companies and research institutes.

The” Internet ” Artificial Intelligence Three-Year Action and Implementation Plan ( Internet Plan ) detailed China’s plan to

encourage cooperation with the relevant nations to improve the R&D and use of AI technology, integrate domestic and international innovation resources, and strengthen the industry’s ability to innovate globally and remain competitiv. We will assist relevant industry associations, industry alliances, and business service organizations in developing service platforms and providing international cooperation and overseas innovation services to innovative companies in the AI field. &nbsp,

China also wants to increase its influence on global AI developments by collaborating with other member nations in the” One Belt, One Road” initiative, a foreign policy initiative to increase its global footprint by funding infrastructural, trade, and investment projects around the world, and obtaining foreign AI investments in research and development.

investing in education and the talent pipeline

Talent is a critical element and resource for AI developments and China recognizes this in its plan for global influence in AI. This is particularly crucial given China’s growing brain drain and the country’s increasing talent shortage, many of whom are leaving the country as a result of undemocratic political and social conditions.

The NGAIDP provides specifics on how China addresses what it sees as a strategic weakness in its AI strategies. By prioritizing the” construction of a high-end talent team” the PRC seeks to build a talent base both by improving its AI education system and by hunting for the “world’s top talent and young talent”.

It aims to accomplish this by setting up personnel training centers, conducting research collaborations with the top AI research institutions in the world, receiving technical advice from top AI talent from abroad, supporting academic exchanges abroad and technical exchanges, and using talent schemes like the” Thousand Talents” plan.

By 2030, colleges and universities will be the main force behind the construction of the world’s main AI innovation centers, according to the Action Plan, and they will be the ones to create a new generation of AI talent. This will give China the scientific and technological support and guaranteed talent to place it at the top of the list of innovation-oriented nations.

In light of this, institutions of higher education are encouraged to adapt their curricula to be responsive to cutting-edge developments in global science and technology, create additional AI-related majors that address industrial demand nationally and regionally, cross-integrate professional education for AI with other disciplines and create world-class teaching materials.

influencing global governance and standards

China is no longer content to take directions and follow the rules on AI made by its Western counterparts. Instead, it now wants to actively participate in and even take the lead in developing international standards for AI.

In the NGAIDP, the PRC stated that it would play a bigger role in global AI governance. China looks to focus on studying major problems common to the international community, such as robot alienation and safety supervision, and improve its collaboration with other countries to develop AI laws, regulations, and international rules to” jointly cope with global challenges”.

The PRC intends to support its domestic AI businesses in their efforts to contribute to or take the lead in the development of technical standards abroad, even as they promote their AI goods and services there. The Action Plan also details how China’s education strategy affects international standards and laws.

By encouraging Chinese scholars to occupy influential positions in international academic organizations and supporting them as they actively take part in drafting international AI regulations, the PRC believes it can influence many international AI spaces with Chinese initiatives and standards.

Finally, China’s Internet Plan expressed its intention to support its relevant departments, research institutions, standardization organizations, industry organizations, and businesses in working with, among others, the International Organization for Standardization ( ISO ), to establish mechanisms for standards exchange and cooperation.

The PRC stated in full that it would continue to support the export of Chinese AI standards to the world and continue to strengthen our standing internationally. Obviously, China is going all out to rewrite the rules.

At the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, Olajide Olugbade studies science and technology policy with a minor in international affairs.

His research areas include the global dynamics of emerging technologies, ethics and governance, innovation politics, and innovation ecosystems. He can be contacted at&nbsp, oolugbade3@gatech .edu.

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Iran’s currency was already tumbling − and then Trump won – Asia Times

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In response to the escalating regional tensions, Iran’s concern turned to the influence of Donald Trump’s win in the 2024 US presidential election.

Iran’s money, the rouble, fell to an all-time lower on November 6.2024 – trading at above 700, 000 liras to the money.

But how are Trump’s get and Iran’s financial difficulties related? The Conversation US turned to Nader Habibi, an expert on the Egyptian market at Brandeis University, to discuss.

What has happened to Iran’s dollar?

The lira hit a new record reduced as Donald Trump claimed victory, investing above the symbolic figure of 700,000 rubles to the dollar, as expected, just as the effects of the US election were being released.

However, it is important to point out that Iran’s currency has been gradually losing value in recent months. This has largely been because of higher inflation in the country, which throughout 2024 has been above 30 % on a year-to-year base, and because the state has had to move large budget deficits. The current upheaval of conflicts and a new round of weapon exchanges between Iran and Israel have also contributed to it.

In response to these concerns, Iranians have significantly started converting the majority of their savings to US dollars or metal. This, in switch, has led to a loss of the dinar.

But this pattern predated Trump’s earn?

Yes. Due in large part to the continuous effects of US-led restrictions on Tehran and the growing concern over the Middle East conflict, the Egyptian market was already in a risky position. In truth, the lira hit an earlier small a couple days before the election.

In contrast, Iran’s officials have been directing more and more of the country’s oil revenue toward protection. They just announced a 200 % planned increase in military spending, and some members of the ruling elite have called for setting the defence budget as a predetermined share of the GDP to ensure adequate financing for military objectives.

This plan has added to the private sector’s worry about the finances gap for various government expenses, which can result in more prices.

How did Trump’s defeat further this money fall?

Political experts predict that a second Trump administration will result to a change in US policy toward Iran and a transfer to a “maximum stress” strategy that included imposing harsh financial sanctions and threatening military action to make Iran abandon its nuclear ambitions.

Washington also engaged in back-channel discussions with Tehran, which suggested a diplomatic solution and potential an arrangement that had, one day, relieve those sanctions, despite the fact that the Biden administration definitely kept the sanctions in place against Iran under Trump and even increased them.

And despite the restrictions still in effect, the Biden administration half rolled back some of those restrictions as an opportunity for Iran during these back-channel discussions. Washington, for instance, has never prevented Iran’s continued direct fuel exports to China in recent years.

Iranian oil exports increased to 2 million barrels per day thanks to Biden’s looser policy toward sanctions protection, with the majority of that crude going to China. Under Trump’s “maximum force” plan, Iranian oil imports were down to 100, 000-150, 000 barrels a day.

How is Trump’s connection with Israel taken into account?

Iranians have differing opinions about how the next Trump administration will impact the Iran-Israel conflict. Some are concerned that it will lessen any force the United States may have on Israel to stop the Middle East’s recent conflict.

The issue is that Israel will launch more military operations in Iran without this kind of force from Washington. Many Iranians are also concerned that Trump might permit Israel to attack Persian infrastructure and oil assets, which may cost the country’s economy even more.

Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, was one of the first world leaders to applaud Trump, noting that the success represented” a strong recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.”

Many Iranians worry that Trump’s win may damage relations between Tehran and Washington. Although there are no immediate diplomatic relations between the US and Iran, it has been broadly reported that direct and secret negotiations have taken place under Biden. The issue is that Trump will not use the same plan, which is perceived in Tehran as being more uncertain than Biden.

Some Iranians even think that Trump might attempt to de-escalate the conflict in Gaza, which will also lower the level of hostility between Iran and Israel. This team points to Trump’s repeated calls for the Middle East and Ukraine battle to be resolved. If this group of Iranians ‘ views prevail, the worry that has caused a fresh reduction in the rial’s value may be temporary.

What has Tehran said about Trump’s win?

Iran’s economy has been minimized by the effects of the US election. Fatemeh Mohajerani, a spokeswoman for Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration, said on November 6, 2024, that the election of a US president “does n’t have anything specifically to do with us”, adding that the “major policies of America and the Islamic Republic are fixed, and they wo n’t heavily change by people replacing others”.

But this appears to be posturing by Iran’s officials. They are attempting to calm the local market and reduce the potential impact of Trump’s victory. However, this might not be successful, and the Persian money may experience even more depreciation in the upcoming weeks.

Nader Habibi is a Middle Eastern economics teacher at Brandeis University.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Trump’s comeback looks a lot like Andrew Jackson’s in 1828 – Asia Times

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Some history-minded people may seek understanding in the idea that it was n’t until Richard Nixon’s second term that the serious consequences began to emerge as the nation prepares for a second Donald Trump presidency.

But as a scholar of American politics, I do n’t think that’s the right parallel.

Trump has already been subject to the majority of the events that led to Nixon’s downfall, including federal prosecutor inquiries and parliamentary investigations.

Trump has survived by – deliberately or no – acing Andrew Jackson, a former US president who established a political party in his own picture and used it to rule about unchecked, in his Oval Office during his first word.

Unlike Nixon, Trump outlasted examinations

In the midst of the Watergate scandal, in which members of Nixon’s election campaign broke into the Democratic National Committee’s offices and next sought to conceal their deeds, Richard Nixon won a landslide victory over the Electoral College in 1972. Although Nixon started off his next word with sky-high acceptance, his fate soon followed.

Only 18 days after his inauguration in January 1973, a Senate specific committee was established to investigate the Watergate hack-in. By the summer of 1974, data of Nixon’s role in the Watergate acts had become enormous. Republican legislative leaders demanded the president step down during a White House attend on August 7, 1974. He announced his decision to retire the following morning, Aug. 8, 1974.

Trump, nevertheless, has already eroded many legal fights, investigations and controversies. Trump’s political career has been marred by numerous conflicts with legal and political organizations, including two House impeaches, both of which the Senate rejected. These include special counsel Jack Smith’s investigations and the Mar-a-Lago documents event.

Many in the GOP urged Trump to move aside to allow for a new generation of leaders following the Republican Party’s defeat in the finals in 2020 and its disappointing performance in the 2022 midterms. But Trump held company.

Studies stalled or were delayed, giving him breathing space through to the 2024 election. Then, with his his returning to the White House, Trump will almost certainly finish the provincial investigations, and there’s little indication that state cases may press forward quickly.

In recent years, Tucker Carlson has made historical sophistry a top topic in some Republican Party members. In this perspective, Nixon was the victim of a program geared against him more than his ouster for his role in Watergate. But where Nixon stepped apart, Trump has fought again.

Like Jackson, Trump reshaped his group

In many ways, if, Trump more closely resembles Jackson than the scandal-plagued Nixon.

Following his thin battle in the contentious 1824 election, Jackson, much like Trump had two centuries later, claimed the vote had been stolen.

Jackson seized on his followers ‘ emotions, reorganizing the Democratic-Republican Party, which eventually rebranded itself as the Democratic Party, in his own picture. His supporters fought for his cause, establishing state and local Political parties and establishing a potent grassroots action.

As a result, the Political Party democratized its election process, moving from elite-driven legislative primaries that chose prospects behind closed doors to well-attended group standards. Citizens could now take part in the candidate selection process through this change.

His views were echoed by the new Jacksonian Democratic Party, which also sparked a rise in democratic activism. Through what became known as the” rewards system,” Jackson rewarded hardliners by appointing them to positions in the government and keeping his friends in top positions in state and federal organizations. This strategy allowed Jackson to efficiently implement his plan while also mobilizing his followers at all levels of government, bringing them into American politicians in unprecedented numbers.

Jackson’s efforts, which included bypassing administrative controls, helped him establish a political environment that gave him a lot of power when he won the 1828 election.

The” Trail of Tears” by Jackson, for instance, exemplified the dangers of having a president with a lot of unilateral power.

Jackson used executive power that appeared unrestrained and disregarded administrative decisions and public outcry. Although Jackson refused to carry out the ruling in Worcester v. Georgia, the Supreme Court’s decision in 1832 led to the continuation of Cherokee people’s movement.

His restructured group and access to visits gave him the appearance of almost complete impunity. Johnson reaffirmed his authority by vetoing the Second Bank of the United States ‘ contract registration, and formally ordering the removal of national reserves despite the support of the bank from the Congress.

Furthermore, Trump has reshaped the Republican Party. His impact has been evident in Republican primary prizes, where individuals aligned with Trump’s perspective succeeded, and competitors – the so-called” Not Trumpers” and” RINOs” – found themselves pushed to the profits.

This change has not been limited to speech; it is manifested in the structure of state legislature and in Congress, establishing a pro-Trump philosophy that extends to party priorities and policies. Trump is now establish a solid groundwork on which to base his campaign promises.

However, the conservative majority on the Supreme Court has, in effect, be a caretaker of the social revolution Trump has spearheaded, granting the senior considerable powers and legal protection.

What to look for future

But there are limitations to what Trump does achieve, yet with his enhanced position.

Unlike in Jackson’s time, today’s federal bureaucracy is a huge, rooted institution, with checks in place that does concern or hinder professional overreach. Some of Trump’s promises, particularly those relating to immigration reform, social welfare reform, and trade, are likely to face opposition from both civil servants and federal agency legal systems.

Trump has stated that he wants to completely reform that federal bureaucracy, replacing experienced career public servants with political appointees whose backgrounds align with Trump’s own.

Donald Trump’s re-election likely signals the end of at least some of the years-long inquiries into his past actions and ensures his dominance of the Republican Party is unbroken. Trump is in a position to further reshape the American political system with a devoted base of voters and supportive institutions.

Auburn University’s assistant professor of political science is Spencer Goidel.

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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‘Trump trade’ wins, Asia loses as risk factors surge – Asia Times

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It’s obvious Donald Trump’s big gain is a game-changer of epic sizes, from the harsh effect in Asian economies to the frantic press speculation about what lies ahead.

The declines in Chinese securities and the yuan only demonstrate how investors are quickly rearranging their strategies for addressing global financial risks and opportunities. The money surged on the news Trump scored a&nbsp, next term. US companies jumped, as did crypto prices. Provides on US Treasury securities shot higher, also.

The” Trump trade” that Asia has in mind is to take cover. A Trump 2.0 White House may certainly be more inward-looking, putting Asia’s export-oriented economy in harm’s way.

A large fire radius is present. Though aimed at China, Trump’s designed 60 % tariffs will destroy Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam and another trade-driven markets. The aftermath on shipping flows could be unimaginable.

According to Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, a planner at JPMorgan,” a significant increase in tariffs would reflect the most significant departure in policy from the latest administration and possibly the largest source of volatility.” The current macro environment is significantly different from what it was eight years ago, when the business cycle was in its mid-cycle, when the Fed did n’t care about inflation, and when pro-growth 1.0 policies were simpler to implement and had a greater impact on the bottom line.

Trump’s win over Kamala Harris is more of a “black swans” occasion for Asia than a “gray one.” Unlike the past, the latter is a repetitive but doubtful results. A “gray swan”, though, does have its own&nbsp, serious consequences, too.

Unexpected effects might be a way to strengthen Xi Jinping’s influence in China. Trump may effectively strengthen it by attacking Beijing with such an aggressiveness that he essentially strengthens by compulsion to integrate with an Eastern economy with China at its core and not an America led by an uneven, mercantilist president who blames Asia for many of his country’s failings.

For Asia, the best-case situation is that Trump’s tax risks are more a negotiating strategy than a real accompli. In fact, Goldman Sachs economists predict that Trump may only establish 20 % tariffs on China and resist the urge to impose blanket charges on other countries.

Trump may turn the other means and impose taxes he has previously threatened to impose. Trump has already stated that there will be 100 % taxes on Mexican car exports.

How much is manufacturers in Japan and Korea hope to avoid such restrictions, especially given that Tesla’s CEO has Trump’s ear? At the very least, electronic vehicle charges will be stacked confidently against non-US manufacturers.

The&nbsp, financial challenges &nbsp, may be even greater. One is that a penny march that has already irritated Asia will take a turn. For years, the economy’s “wasteball” impulses have shook international markets. It has lured enormous waves of global capital west, disadvantaging emerging-market markets in specific.

The difficulty, explains Tom Dunleavy, a companion at MV Capital, is that emerging markets “rely strongly on assets and have debts in money”. The majority of business and debt is also based in dollars, along with fuel. And he says that” the ratio of everything is going up.”

Regardless of the dubious reasoning behind it, the more packed a continued-dollar-strength business becomes as the result of the global fallout when depressed punters flee for their exits. And Trump was serve up some such situations.

Though Trump’s tariffs get the headlines, Asia is extremely worried about what his next president may mean for the Federal Reserve, the keeper of the world’s top supply money.

Trump put the techniques on the Fed during his 2017-2021 stay in the White House. Jerome Powell sabotaged his hand-picked Fed chair, and he went after him frequently. In 2019, Powell bowed to unrelenting force from&nbsp, Trump, who also threatened to fire him.

That’s how the world’s most powerful economic authority added liquidity to a flourishing business that did n’t need new substances. Trump’s Fed meddling set the stage for the post-Covid-19 price surge to come. It also tarnished the Fed’s credibility in global markets.

For Asia, Trump’s Fed policies are especially worrisome. The region’s central banks are armed with the largest stocks of US Treasury securities. Japan alone holds$ 1.1 trillion of US debt, China$ 770 billion.

Together, Asia’s largest holders of dollars own about$ 3 trillion worth. Trump 2.0 would put at risk vast amounts of Asian state wealth if his fiscal policies push Washington’s debt far above today’s US$ 35 trillion.

Not to mention the ways China might retaliate, leading to cycle of tit-for-tat trade curbs. Or might Beijing make a move to dump sizable amounts of Treasuries to punish the Trump 2.0 gang?

Or what if Trump’s designs on altering the Fed’s mandate come to pass? A key plank of the” Project 2025″ strategy that the Heritage Foundation devised for a&nbsp, second Trump term&nbsp, is watering down Fed independence.

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Trump took shots at Powell and his fellow policymakers. ” I think it’s the greatest job in government”, Trump said. Everybody talks about you like a god when you say,” Let’s say flip a coin,” and you show up to the office once a month.

Trump also contends that the White House has every right to compel the Fed to do its bidding.

Trump once remarked in August that the Federal Reserve had “kind of got it wrong” ( very interesting ). He went on to say that” I feel the president should have at least ]some ] say in there, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful. And I believe I have a better instinct than those who, in many cases, would be chairman of the Federal Reserve.

This could put the Fed’s economic role closer to that of the People’s Bank of China.

To be sure, the concept of central bank independence has been muddied. Take the&nbsp, Bank of Japan, which has held interest rates at or near zero for 25 years. What truly self-governing central bank would do that?

Yet the Fed is a different story. The dollar serves as the foundation of global finance and trade. Trump frequently discussed using a weaker dollar to gain a competitive advantage during his first term. Any policy change that undermines confidence in the US government and the dollar makes the world system shakier.

A weaker dollar could fan inflation. That, on top of Trump’s tariffs, could put the Fed in a very tough spot as Trump looks over Powell’s shoulder. Economists are frantically debating how all of this might turn out.

” On the US dollar, Trump wants to revitalize US manufacturing and exports”, says Will Denyer, an analyst at Gavekal Research. He may try to manipulate the dollar lower because he recognizes that the strength of the US dollar is an obstacle to these goals.

However, Denyer says, “he has few good options. Given how dependent the US government and companies are on foreign capital today, it is difficult to use capital controls to deter foreign inflows. And if Fed chair Jay Powell persists until the end of his term in May 2026, leaning on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates wo n’t be simple in the near future.

Trump might try to use the threat of tariffs as a negotiating tactic in an effort to revalue their currencies, Denyer adds. However, it is doubtful whether multilateral or even broader economic policy changes will significantly weaken the US dollar in the absence of broader economic policy shifts.

This, Denyer concludes,” will leave Trump to hope that continued disinflation allows the Fed to cut rates, weakening the US dollar. However, there is a sizable probability that loose fiscal policy and sticky inflation will keep&nbsp, monetary policy&nbsp, relatively tight, supporting the US dollar and confounding Trump’s aim of weakening the currency”.

Another irrational possibility: whether Trump will continue to flirt with defaulting on US debt. He declared to CNBC in 2016 that he would “know that you could make a deal” if the economy crashed. And if the economy was good, it was good. So, therefore, you ca n’t lose”.

Trump considered canceling Beijing’s debt while serving as president for the first time in light of trade tensions. With the US national debt twice the size of Chinese gross domestic product, it’s easy to see how that would make the 2008″ Lehman shock” seem quaint by comparison.

Asian assets are also weighed by the threat of geopolitical conflict. One example is what a Trump 2.0 foreign policy team might have for Taiwan.

Trump’s return is music to Vladimir Putin’s ears, giving the Russian leader greater scope to commandeer&nbsp, Ukraine&nbsp, once and for all. Compared with US President Joe Biden’s administration, Trump also seems less likely to come to Taipei’s defense if China moved against the island of&nbsp, 23 million people.

Asia investors will also keep their bets guessing about the direction US policies in the Middle East will take. Trump, for instance, might give Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu more freedom to fight the conflict in Gaza. He’s also likely to tighten sanctions on Iran, adding fresh uncertainty to oil supply dynamics and, by extension, energy prices.

” Conceptually, the impact of a potential second Trump term on oil prices is ambiguous”, says commodity researcher Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby at Goldman Sachs.

As Trump 2.0 assumes power, other issues will concern Asian governments. Japan and Korea are concerned that Trump’s “grand bargain” trade agreement with Xi leaves other top Asian nations staring in from the distance.

All that’s clear, though, is that there will be fewer guardrails or inhibitions as Trump seeks to “make America great again” at Asia’s expense.

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China’s surging lead in the EV battery circular economy – Asia Times

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Battery recycling and circular economy initiatives have become crucial to the global green transition as the electric vehicle ( EV ) market expands globally. China, now a powerful person in EV power output, is today expanding its reach into the cell recycling industry, aiming to build a closed-loop supply chain.

China is now a leader in the emerging round business, which involves sharing, rent, reusing, repairing, refurbishing, and recycling existing materials and products as much as possible, thanks to this strategy, which addresses the issue of resource scarcity as well as providing a fresh competitive edge in the international green technology arena.

The essential materials for Volt batteries, such as chromium, potassium, and nickel, are limited in supply and socially expensive to extract. China has a strong foothold in the world battery supply chain thanks to its extensive control over the world’s mineral resources, as well as its substantial stakes in African cobalt mines and Latin American lithium sources.

Yet, China’s ambitions go beyond command over natural elements. China is working to reduce its emphasis on just mined nutrients while simultaneously lowering the economic impact of EV cell production by encouraging a powerful battery recycling business.

Chinese businesses like CATL and GEM Co, Ltd. are positioned in the battery recycling market by utilizing cutting-edge technologies to increase the reuse rate of crucial materials. These businesses use cutting-edge extraction techniques to recover valuable components from outdated batteries, which can then be reintegrated into the production cycle.

This strategy improves resource efficiency and reduces waste, as well as establishing a strong green image for China on the global stage. The Chinese government’s supportive policies, which include setting industry standards, offering financial support, and providing tax incentives, are further strengthening the growth of this sector, making China’s position in the global circular economy increasingly difficult to match.

In contrast, the United States and Europe have yet to create comprehensive battery recycling supply chains, which puts them at a long-term disadvantage. Western countries ‘ battery recycling efforts remain fragmented, with limited large-scale infrastructure in place.

China has the opportunity to set standards and win markets in areas that may eventually rely on China for recycled battery materials, just as they have historically relied on it for raw materials.

China’s recycling network will grow as EV adoption increases and the volume of used batteries rises, potentially making Chinese companies key partners for international companies looking to secure sustainable sources of battery materials.

China has a lot of leverage on the international stage thanks to its expanding knowledge of battery recycling. China has greater influence over the global EV supply chain and is at a disadvantage in negotiations with businesses and nations that depend on these resources because of its control over both new and recycled sources of critical minerals.

China’s emphasis on recycling and sustainable practices also aligns with its goals to be a responsible global player in climate action, a position that is crucial as green technology becomes more politicized on the global stage.

However, Western countries are increasingly wary of China’s closed-loop resource system. Particularly in the United States, concerns have been raised that China might use its influence over the recycling supply chain to increase its position of authority in green technology.

There is also growing concern that China may be able to establish standards for sustainability in ways that serve its own interests as a result of this influence.

These issues are at the crossroads between geopolitics and circular economy initiatives: even in those whose main concern is the environment, there is strong competition between the US and China.

China’s research and development in battery recycling serve as both a wise response to resource shortage and a step-by-step exploration of potential circular economy potential. The ability to close the loop on crucial resources like EV batteries will become an increasingly valuable asset as the global green transition progresses.

How countries balance the need for supply chain independence with their circular economy goals could be a key factor in the US and China’s ongoing green technology battle. The future of green technology and, consequently, the dynamics of the world’s economic power will likely be influenced by China’s involvement in battery recycling.

Lin Qin is visiting PhD students at the Liu Institute for Asia andamp; Asian Studies at the University of Notre Dame, and PhD students at the Shanghai International Studies University’s School of International Relations and& Public Affairs. Follow her on X at @Lyinn_Chin7

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War, inflation and wokeism return Trump to White House – Asia Times

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With 95 % of the vote counted, Donald Trump’s projected triumph in Pennsylvania guarantees his election as president, making it the most amazing political reversal in American history.

Trump was confronted with two assassination attempts, a armed constitutional system, and questionable foreign-investigation investigations. Trump appeared on the campaign path as a joyful fighter and won the November 5 poll, which was widely perceived as a bitter has-been.

A perceived fragile financial performance and an unhappy foreign war also put him in the shoes of a weak opponent. Kapala Harris struggled to explain why she would perform better in Joe Biden’s incoming administration as leader than she did in Joe Biden’s incoming administration. She was the first presidential candidate in decades chosen by the party elite more than primary elections.

Donald Trump’s disdainful defense of “forever wars” helped him stand out from the rest of the Republican group in the 2016 primaries. British voters voted for peace after US voters approved the strong wall of the international policy establishment by spending$ 7 trillion in expenditures and millions of lives without meaning. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX ), who was re-elected on November 5, was the only real opposition Trump faced in 2016.

No American forces are involved in the Ukraine war, so it does n’t carry the weight that the deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan did. Trump once more dominated the ballot on foreign policy by promising to bring about harmony as soon as he took office.

Americans are suffering at home in the wake of the worst prices wave since the 1970s, and in some cases, the worst since the Civil War. The Biden presidency increased federal spending to new records, resulting in a gap of nearly 7 % of GDP, which was unheard of during the boom’s time.

In spite of the high cost of living, prices hit a record high of 18 % and is still rising at 8 %. Harris owned this outcome and avoided receiving any benefits from the internet by avoiding direct inquiries about it.

America’s left-wing historical revolutionaries went too far and moved too quickly to effect radical changes in the concept of gender. Americans are accepting citizens and overwhelmingly opposed to gay marriage.

However, the majority of the government was outraged by the hormone replacement therapy used for pre-pubescent youngsters who believed they were born with the bad sex and man transgender athletes competing in women’s activities. By a 3 to 1 ratio, Americans are against transgender players in women’s sports.

As a advocate, Trump skillfully navigated the cross-currents among important districts. Frequently perceived as a stronger admirer of Israel than Harris, Trump yet won the support of the president of Hamtramck, Michigan, the single US area with an Arab-American majority.

By excluding Gay symbols on town house, Hamtramck caused a stir in 2023. Muslims who follow a progressive educational system may care less about foreign policy than about corrupting their children.

Hillary Clinton in 2016 and the snobbishness of Democratic officials both found dangerous. A insult made by a Trump-supporting artist about Puerto Rico by President Biden in response to a joke about the election that claimed Trump voters were “garbage” went viral a week before the vote. No matter how difficult Biden tried to walk it again, this badly hurt Harris.

Hillary Clinton’s September 2016 reply to a LGTBQ charity that Trump supporters were “deplorables” became a gathering cry against pretentiousness. Mitt Romney, a Republican presidential candidate, claimed that 47 % of voters did n’t really matter at a private fundraiser in 2012. He meant that while that percentage did n’t pay federal income tax, it came out as a vote-in-the-ground defiance of the majority and helped to kill his campaign.

Despite numerous campaign path proclamations, Trump’s economics are completely clear. It is unclear whether Trump is articulating a negotiating position or a set policy proposal when he talks about punishing tariffs on China or Mexico or higher tariff barriers against the rest of the world.

That many may be learned from the published works of trusted Trump advisors like Peter Navarro. Trump’s campaign rhetoric portrayed tariffs as a cure-all for America’s industrial decline but it obviously is n’t that simple.

Trump has the opportunity to create a wonderful management. I had my turn to propose an objective to Trump, under the name,” Make Peace and Build America”. He has had an incredible return. The second portion will be even harder.

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New Indonesia fund rings early alarm bells on Prabowo – Asia Times

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Indonesia’s powerful state-owned enterprise ( SEO ) sector is on the verge of a major shake-up as the new Prabowo Subianto administration attempts to reshape the nation’s economic system.

On November 7, Prabowo’s state is expected to release information about a new super-holding organization for SOEs and another government-controlled finances to become known as the Daya Anagata Nusantara Investment Management Agency, or Danantara.

While the novel company’s specific mandate and work is unclear, the management has promoted the idea it will serve as an Indonesian version of Temasek, Singapore’s effective sovereign wealth fund.

But, feedback from the public and in-the-know sources suggest Danantara could be something entirely different, with some hesitant to accept it as a direct investment in the government’s name projects without going through the customary Ministry of Finance budget arrangement approach.

Fears about the proposed shake-up focus on two key points. First, while Danantara’s scope is unclear, it will likely overlap heavily in numerous areas with Indonesia’s existing sovereign wealth fund, the Indonesian Investment Authority ( INA ), and the Ministry for State-Owned Enterprises helmed by Erick Thorir.

Next, there are concerns that the move may aim to lead State resources toward idealistic political priorities, including his energy security, completely student lunch and food security policies, as well as potential patronage of political allies, given that the new holding company appears to be under the authority of the national office.

However, according to sources with knowledge of the situation, top SOE ministry officials were immediately notified when plans for the new holding company first appeared on October 22.

Burhannudin Abdullah, former chancellor of the Bank of Indonesia and part of the advisory committee for Prabowo, who was then president-elect, made the first proposals to reform the SOE government and create a very keeping company in a speech on September 25.

However, the sudden announcement that this concept would be put into practice still irritated many people. Many assumed that Thorir, a billionaire and influential political operator, would continue to play a significant role in bringing together and rationalizing the SOE sector under Prabowo. He was reappointed to the position he had held under President Joko Widodo.

The announcement of an apparently parallel organization, with scant details about its remit, has thrown all this into doubt. Thorir continued to appear obnoxious on Danantara as of November 4. ” I do n’t know exactly. When reporters inquired about the new holding company’s plans for November 8th, he replied,” I’m just setting up the office.”

In Indonesia, SOE control is a particularly powerful position. In 2023, SOEs controlled US$ 671 billion in assets, equivalent to 48.9 % of the country’s gross domestic product ( GDP ), in sectors spanning energy, mining, finance, agriculture and construction.

In addition to running big businesses in key sectors, Indonesia’s SOEs carry out government policies as varied as distributing subsidized fuel and food, to building new infrastructure projects, to making micro-loans to the poor. They are a potent source of patronage because of their ability to appoint people to fill positions and distribute contracts.

So what’s likely behind Danatara’s creation? Muliaman Hadad, who will head Danantara and formerly served as chair of Indonesia’s financial services authority, invoked both Singapore’s Temasek and Indonesia’s INA as models for the fund in recent comments to the press.

The analogies appear to be intended to reassure markets, even though they use very different strategies: the former focuses heavily on overseas assets plus a few strategic Singaporean companies, and the latter more on co-investing with large foreign funds in Indonesian infrastructure. Both Temasek and INA are reputable institutions that are renowned for having good governance and technocratic management.

However, initial reports and information from a variety of sources point to the possibility that Danantara will turn out to be something quite different. According to reports from Katadata, Danantara will control Indonesia’s seven SOEs, which are currently the biggest dividend-payers.

These include three big state-owned banks, namely Bank Mandiri, Bank Rakyat Indonesia and Bank Negara Indonesia, monopoly electricity distributor PLN, oil and gas giant Pertamina, telecoms conglomerate Telkom Indonesia and mining giant MIND ID.

There are also rumored plans to combine the reputable INA with Danantara, which could cause a potential cultural conflict between bureaucrats and private professionals. The INA has invested in a portfolio of private companies and SOEs with an emphasis on infrastructure, including Bank Mandiri and Bank Rakyat Indonesia.

Some special investment vehicles under the Ministry of Finance’s control, including perhaps Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund ( IIGF ) and Indonesia Infrastructure Financing ( IIF), may also come under Danantara’s control.

Some investors and analysts worry that the new super-holding company will add yet more bureaucracy and special interests to navigate and placate. Additionally, there are concerns that the new entity might undermine existing relationships that INA has with numerous large international investment, pension, and sovereign funds.

Moreover, Hadad’s appointment to head Danantara has raised certain concerns about the body’s governance.

Hadad served as Burhanuddin’s deputy when the latter oversaw payments of about$ 10 million to members of parliament and paid the legal fees for former central bank officials who were facing corruption charges when they were governor of the Bank of Indonesia.

One of those officials assisted in this way was Sudrajad Dwjiwandono – Prabowo’s brother-in-law. Burhannudin was later found guilty and given a five-year prison sentence for his actions.

There are already several indications that Prabowo wants to appoint loyalists in key positions in the SOE sector.

On November 5, it was announced that Simon Aloysius Mantiri, a member of Prabowo’s Gerindra party and deputy treasurer of his presidential campaign, would be the new CEO of the state-owned oil and gas giant Pertamina.

According to critics, more political appointments of this sort would be made through Danantara, which would increase presidential control over SOEs.

By resigning Indonesia’s trusted finance minister, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, and indicating that he could reduce funding for some of his signature policy promises, Prabowo earlier sought to calm market concerns about his robust spending plans and governance.

That did n’t address concerns about his big boat cabinet, the largest ever since the mid-1960s with some 48 ministers and 56 vice-ministers. The appointees are notably heavy on economic technocrats and heavy on political party leaders. &nbsp, &nbsp,

How markets will react to Nanantara’s creation is still unclear. However, as Prabowo’s vision for the fund becomes clearer, the sudden and, in many ways, suspect move taken so early in his term could well rekindle those market jitters.

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N Korea-Russia in suspected missile tech for troops quid pro quo – Asia Times

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Concerns are raising concerns about missile technology transfers that could boost Pyongyang’s army and raise conflicts on the Asian Peninsula as North Korean troops are being trained in Russia for implementation to Ukraine.

Kim Yong-Hyun, the defense minister of South Korea, reportedly warned that North Korea may change Russian-made missiles for army deployment.

Around 10,000 North Vietnamese soldiers are “drawing technology and conducting some training,” according to US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin.
He claimed they may be sent to the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukraine has been a protectorate since an unexpected conquest in August.

In response to international sanctions, Pyongyang is working to strengthen its nuclear and missile arsenals in the wake of the Russia-North Korea military change. According to the Defense One statement, Russia’s potential assistance may have a significant impact on North Korea’s reliability and ability to target missiles.

According to Defense One, the US and South Korea have responded by advancing fresh assistance agreements to strengthen local surveillance, including joint military exercises and technology transfers that build on a multilateral safety framework with Japan to combat North Korea’s growing threat.

According to the report, Austin emphasized the existential threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear and missile applications to the Indo-Pacific area.

In a February 2022 content in the peer-reviewed International Security book, Steve Fetter and Jaganath Sankaran show significant restrictions in the stability and targeting correctness of North Korean missiles, highlighting the difficulties the US faces in intercepting such threats.

Sankaran and Fetter mention that while capable of reaching the US, North Korean intercontinental ballistic missiles ( ICBMs) exhibit substantial risks due to their liquid-fueled systems, which results in longer increase aspects.

They say this makes the missiles detectable and more easily intercepted by airborne Boost-Phase Intercept ( BPI ) systems, such as Aegis-equipped destroyers. They point out that North Korea’s potential move to solid-fuel systems may reduce catch vulnerabilities, as these missiles may have shorter increase phases.

Further, they say North Korea may acquire sophisticated countermeasures from allies like China or Russia, challenging the effectiveness of the US’s Ground-based Midcourse Defense ( GMD) system.

Underscoring North Korea’s progress in developing Submarines capable of hitting the US peninsula, The War Zone reported this month that North Korea has tested its longest-ranged ICBM to day, the Hwasong-19, amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

The War Zone says that the missile, launched from a massive 11-axle transporter-erector-launcher ( TEL), is a solid-fuel, multi-stage weapon capable of reaching cities across the US mainland if flown on a standard trajectory.

The document mentions that the Hwasong-19 achieved a document level of 7, 686 meters and flew for 137 meters, surpassing past North Vietnamese ICBM testing. It further states that the rocket’s architecture includes a larger-diameter system and a more sophisticated TEL than its predecessors, indicating major developments in North Korea’s missile systems.

However, despite its impressive capabilities, The War Zone poses questions about the missile’s reliability and survivability, given its size and the challenges of hiding and maneuvering such a large TEL.

Further, Oleksandr Danylyuk mentions in a July 2024 article for the Royal United Services Institute ( RUSI) that despite public concern, Russia’s support for North Korea’s missile program is not new.

According to Danylyuk, analysis of North Korean missiles launched by Russia against Ukraine, such as the KN-23, reveals significant Russian technological influence, including the use of Russian materials and design standards.

He points out that Russian and Soviet assistance has long been a source of support for North Korea’s missile and nuclear capabilities. According to Dalyuk, this is a part of Russia’s plan to destabilize areas where the US has security interests, causing the West to engage in negotiations that are advantageous to Russia.

In addition to missile technology, Victor Cha mentions in a June 2024 Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) think tank article that North Korea seeks advanced military technology in the form of telemetry, nuclear submarine technology, and military satellite wares in exchange for providing Russia with troops, ammunition, and ballistic missiles for its Ukraine war effort.

Given North Korea’s technological and resource constraints, Sankaran and Fetter point out that despite these potential improvements, North Korean ICBMs are still unlikely to match the accuracy and reliability of US missile defense systems.

Despite that, they claim that having such weapons increases their threat potential beyond its technical reliability due to the psychological and strategic effects of their use.

A new joint defense science and technology executive committee was formed last month, according to a report from Breaking Defense that US Defense Secretary Austin and South Korean Defense Minister Kim made the announcement during a meeting at the Pentagon.

This committee will look into Seoul’s participation in AUKUS Pillar II, with a focus on cutting-edge technologies like autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, and quantum technologies, according to Breaking Defense.

It mentions the announcement that comes after a US-South Korea security consultative meeting attended by the respective defense ministers of both nations to improve cooperation in terms of defense and technological advancements.

Austin and Kim emphasized the need to address North Korea’s recent troop deployments in Russia while placing a top priority on expanding scientific and technological cooperation.

Russia has also been sternly warned by South Korea about its support for North Korea’s missile program. Yoon Suk Yeol, president of South Korea, reportedly warned of potential military support for Ukraine as a result of North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia last month.

This announcement was made following a summit in Seoul with Polish President Andrzej Duda, according to NPR. In the report, Yoon emphasized that South Korea would not” sit idle” in the face of such provocations, suggesting a potential shift in policy to provide offensive weapons to Ukraine.

Russia responded by advising South Korea of the immediate effects of its involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin said in June 2024 that if South Korea decided to supply arms to Ukraine, it would face severe consequences.

According to Reuters, Putin emphasized that South Korea would suffer the most from Russia’s reaction. Putin’s remarks are mentioned in the report as evidence of the potential for a further uprising on the Korean Peninsula, as well as his mention of the possibility of providing advanced weapons to North Korea in response to Western actions.

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