Drums of war receding as Albanese heads to China

Prime Minister Gough Whitlam visited the People’s Republic of China fifty years ago this month, forging a bond that has benefited both China and Australia in terms of economic growth and development.

It was a brave move into the unknown in many ways. Although the two markets are unmistakably complement, Anthony Albanese, the prime minister of today, frequently points out that their political systems are very dissimilar.

Due to Labor’s vote victory in 2022, the Coalition government struggled to address the necessary confusion in Australia-China relationships, deciding that elections( and, in some cases, ideology ) had to take precedence over economy.

Starting this weekend, Albanese will travel to Beijing, which is encouraging because it represents a change from the blatant hostility that pervaded little of Australia-China relations after 2017.

From” firm ties” to” drums of war”

The then-Home Affairs director, Mike Pezzullo, forewarned his team that the” drums of battle” were beating in an Anzac Day 2021 message that was eventually published to some flourish in The Australian. The conflicts between Australia and China were explicitly mentioned.

The defence minister, Peter Dutton, concurred that a war with China over Taiwan” should not be discounted.” Weeks later, he claimed in an interview that the Australian Defense Force was” ready for action”:

[…] It is still a distinct priority to protect our territories and our waters to the north and west.

The Albanese state has rejected this viewpoint of the Morrison state, echoing Winston Churchill’s 1954 remarks at the White House that” teeth – jaw is often better than war-war.”

” Job towards fruitful and stable relations with China based on mutual advantage and value” is the new government’s guiding principle. Penny Wong, the foreign minister, and Albanese have both emphasized that Australia will engage where it can and disagree when it has.

This distinction with its father may seem little more than facetious given the government’s dedication to the US alliance. However, speech has a lot of weight when it comes to international politics. This is particularly real during times of political unrest, like the one we’re currently in.

Before their conference in Beijing in December 2022, Penny Wong extends a handshake to Taiwanese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Zhang Ling / Xinhua in the & nbsp photo

There is room for assistance

What the authorities may hope to accomplish and what Australia should anticipate from Albanese’s journey to Beijing are constrained by this broader perspective.

The days of a more receptive and amicable relationship are unlikely to return anytime soon due to the emergence of an obvious” proper competitors” between the US and China and Australia’s participation in that contest through AUKUS.

Even though it has recently taken center stage, the Australia-US empire is only one aspect of the connection between Australia and China.

In the Pacific, Australia and China even have different interests and goals. Additionally, both nations continue to own markets that are very complementary. These connections call for a more complex control of the relationship, and Albanese’s visit may bring up these issues.

The Pacific territories have long been seen by Asian governments as having significant geopolitical and economic significance. However, up until recently, these countries’ concerns and development priorities — namely, the effects of climate change and the requirement for basic infrastructure— had not received the same level of attention.

Through its Belt and Road Initiative, China has filled this space. The American authorities responded to the Chinese government’s attempts to reach security agreements with some of the Pacific islands with a number of standard visits, additional financial support, and the guarantee of programs to foster economic and cultural ties.

China and Australia can work together in this place without a doubt. Despite continuing to use fossil fuels, China has grown a sizable renewable energy sector that is significantly larger than Australia’s in terms of energy output.

Additionally, the two nations may work together to provide the Pacific with growth aid.

Both parties care about the business relationship.

The diplomatic business relationship will undoubtedly be discussed in Beijing. With 34 % of all exports and 28 % of imports, China is Australia’s biggest trading partner.

More significantly, Australia is one of the few nations with a sizable business deficit with China. Australia’s surplus on the trade of goods with China in 2022 – 2023 was approximately A$ 87 billion.

The removal of this economic partnership may present an equally important issue despite the language of the Morrison government portraying China as a threat to Australia. This has only been made worse by the subsequent failure of deals to create a free trade agreement between Australia and the European Union.

A file image shows an employee sorting Australian wine in a bonded warehouse in the Jiangsu province of China’s Nantong. Asia Times Files / AFP image

Despite the disparity in the size of the two economies, industry is currently one aspect of a relationship that is extremely important for the Foreign leadership.

While the transfer of American resources is undeniably substantial and there is some evidence that the tariffs China imposed hurt its own economy, China’s focus on trade is abroad.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement is now being sought by the Chinese state. This is the Trans-Pacific Partnership’s replacement free trade association, from which then-US president Donald Trump withdrew in 2017. China needs the backing of its members, including Australia, to achieve this.

There has been trust that a diplomatic basis for renewed balance is now emerging during the series of meetings between American and Taiwanese officials this year, which resulted in the first high-level dialogue between the nations since 2020.

Without these cues, Albanese probably wouldn’t be in Beijing right then. It might not be as serious a shift as Whitlam’s 1973 visit, but there is always some element of stepping into the unknown.

David S. G. Goodman is the chairman of the China Studies Center and a teacher of Chinese government at the University of Sydney.

Under a Creative Commons license, this post has been republished from The Conversation. Read the article in its entirety.

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A Chinese physicist rises after inspirer faltered

The Oliver E. Buckley Condensed Matter Physics Prize, the best science honor in the United States, for geometric classical material analysis has awarded two Chinese nationals.

For” groundbreaking theoretical and experimental studies on the collective electronic properties of materials that reflect topological aspects of their band structure ,” Tsinghua University’s Xue Qikun, 59, received recognition. ( At the same time, Ashvin Vishwanath, 50, a scientist from Harvard University, received recognition for various contributions to the field. )

The first person from China to get the respect is Xue. He assisted in placing Tsinghua University on the laureate list of the Prize, which was given in honor of American electrical engineer Oliver Ellsworth Buckley( 1887 – 1959 ), who made significant contributions to the field of submarine telephony.

If Stanford University’s Zhang Shoucheng had never inspired Xue in 2008, he would not have entered the field of geometrical classical materials, which is more about magnetism. He is an expert in scanning routing microscopy and spectroscopy as well as surface materials.

Xue recently acknowledged in an interview that he wasn’t a top student at school and had failed postgraduate admissions exams and public exams. However, he claimed that after each loss, his work had been harder. He claimed that he is unquestionably a hard-working scientist who works from 7 am to 11 pm every day. & nbsp,

Zhang, who was born in Shanghai, was compared to a child portent. His ability allowed him to enroll at Fudan University, a prestigious Chinese universities, at the age of 15, two years before his peers, and complete his bachelor’s degree at age 18. Finally he went to Germany to study. He enrolled at Stony Brook University in the New York state school system in 1983 to study under Chinese mathematician Franklin Yang, a 1957 Nobel laureate winner. & nbsp, He was born in the US.

Condensed problem physics was Zhang Shoucheng’s area of expertise. Baidu image

Zhang had previously predicted that he would eventually receive the Nobel laureate. Otherwise, on December 1, 2018, Zhang fell to his death from a glass of his San Francisco house, leaving Xue in the wake of the intellectual world’s rising sun. Zhang’s home has claimed that he committed suicide due to depression, but other balances express suspicion.

Zhang was arrested between flight connections in Canada for alleged violations of American sanctions against Iran, and she spent three years under house arrest. Ironically, Zhang passed away on the day he was supposed to meet Huawei’s Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou.

Meng Wanzhou from Huawei is shown in a photo while she was under house arrest in Canada for three times. Wikipedia image

Three days prior to Zhang’s passing, on November 27, 2018, his research team announced a collaboration with Huawei to build electronics.

Hall-like result

Xue and his team became famous after an experiment in late 2012 in which they observed the “quantum anomalous Hall-like result (QAHE)” when electric currents flow in topological materials. They published their findings in the journal Science in 2013.

Franklin Yang praised Xue’s QAHE trial as a” Nobel laureate – level” accomplishment in 2014. & nbsp,

To understand what the QAHE is, one should know about the Hall-like result, which was discovered in 1879 by American physicist Edwin Hall (1855-1938).

Hall altered the course of an electrical current using an electrical area. The breakthrough was applied to various electronic tools and voltage measurements. & nbsp,

In 1980, German physicist Klaus von Klitzing discovered the quantum Hall-like result, a quantized version of the Hall-like result.

A graphic illustration of the QAHE principle based on a thin topological insulator film with ferromagnetism. The magnetization direction ( M ) has been pointed by the red arrows. The tides, which come from the device’s conducting top channel, are indicated by the bright arrows. Photo: ResearchGate

In 1988, British-born physicist Duncan Haldane suggested the concept of the QAHE (adding “anomalous” to the description), which is the quantum Hall-like result created in the absence of an external magnetic field.

One of the two most well-liked areas of study in condensed problem science right now is QAHE. Superconducting elements are the other. & nbsp,

Foreign experts from abroad

Zhang was actually one of the 23 co-authors on Xue’s 2013 paper on the QAHE study. & nbsp,

They came up as a result of two initiatives meant to bring Chinese experts from abroad back to their country.

In 1994, Xue graduated from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ ( CAS ) Institute of Physics with a doctorate. He later held positions as a visiting associate professor at the Department of Physics at North Carolina State University in the US and as an interact research associate at Tohoku University’s Institute for Materials Research in Japan.

He enrolled in China’s” Hundred Talents Program” in 1999 and later came back to work as a teacher at his alma mater, the Institute of Physics at CAS. In 2005, he joined Tsinghua.

In 2006, Zhang and his Stanford team co-wrote a paper about the “quantum spin Hall-like result (QSHE),” which is expected to be used to make low-power-consumption electronics in the future.

Mark of the Program for Thousand Talents. Featured image: Wikipedia

Zhang joined China’s” Thousand Talents Program,” a recently expanded welcome-home action, in 2008 with the goal of fostering ties with Chinese researchers worldwide. He didn’t quit Stanford or renounce his US citizen. He made contact with Tsinghua and Xue’s lab through the program.

According to Chinese internet transactions that provide scant information, he assisted Huawei in 2009 in” resolving some tough questions” regarding 5G systems. Additionally, he advised Tsinghua to conduct checks on three geometric insulators.

Zhang was one of the three Oliver Buckley Prize winners in 2012,” for the QSHE’s philosophical forecast and experimental study, opening the area of geometrical insulators.”

Before deciding to begin concentrating on the QAHE in 2008, Xue and his team had no educational background in geometrical materials, according to the media. In four times, he claimed, his crew had tested more than 1,000 materials before observing the QAHE.

According to Xue,” These accomplishments are a result of the ongoing development of China’s scientific and technological prowess as well as the long-term and deep concentration of fundamental scientific study since the national reform and starting up.” So, recognition should go to every scholar on the group and, more important, to the nation.

Nobel laureate

Chinese state media has been highlighting Xue’s accomplishments ever since the American Physical Society( APS ) announced the 2024 Oliver E. Buckley Prize winners on October 24. Since the prize was first given to a Chinese national in 1953, he has received it.

The majority of winners over the past 70 years have been Americans and Britons, with a few being Chinese, Korean, and Japanese scientists. & nbsp,

In actuality, American-born Chinese scientists like Frank Fang( 1988 ), Shen Zhixun( 2011 ), and Wen Xiaogang( 2017 ) had won the Prize.

Daniel Tsui Chee, born in Henan, was among the three recipients of the award in 1984 for the discovery of the fractional quantized Hall-like result. He had studied in a Hong Kong secondary school before pursuing further studies in Augustana College in the US. He won the Nobel laureate in Physics in 1998.

Zhang’s passing

Some observers said Xue may win the Nobel laureate one day. That remains to be seen. But Zhang definitely will not win the Nobel laureate, which cannot be awarded posthumously.

The 55-year-old scientist passed away mysteriously after the US began its investigation into his company, Danhua Capital, in November 2018. It was charged with aiding Taiwanese businesses in obtaining US technology. Since the scientist’s passing, there has been no common update regarding the United States’ investigation of Zhang’S organization.

His household attributed the illness to despair, claiming Zhang had committed suicide.

There are reports that Zhang had significant financial issues involving his company, but some dubious Foreign critics claim Zhang was at the height of his career and lifestyle and speculate that the US may have played a role in his passing.

China awarded Xue the State & nbsp, Natural Science Award( the first prize ) on January 8, 2019, to recognize his accomplishments in the QAHE experiment without mentioning Zhang’s contributions.

Study: Following Huawei’s device progress, US ban goals ASML

At & nbsp, @ jeffpao3 is Jeff Pao’s Twitter account.

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There’s good news and bad news about interest rates

The issue with interest rates is not how great they’ll go, but rather how much they will stay at the current high levels before declining.

Following 11 consecutive increases, the Fed maintained its benchmark interest rate at its most recent conference, which ended on November 1, at a constant level of 5.25 to 5.5 %. ( Average borrowers’ rates increase with the Fed’s benchmark; the 30-year fixed rate for mortgages recently reached 8 %.)

Some analysts believe that any additional increase may be modest, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s open invitation to do so at a later meeting. Some believe that the Fed has raised its money. There is growing agreement that prices have reached or are very close to reaching their peak.

Because experts are divided on the perspective for the market, there is less agreement on how much before prices start to decline. The answer, according to many bond traders, is” longer than we originally expected.” Customers are being informed by Goldman Sachs that the Fed won’t start cutting interest rates until the end of the following month.

Bond traders have been demanding higher provides to make up for what they perceive to be an increase in the risk of holding long-term bill because they anticipate that short term rates will stay high for a longer period of time. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note recently reached 5 %, though it has since decreased slightly.

Of course, owners might be mistaken or may be compelled to reevaluate due to shifting economic and financial circumstances. Therefore, it’s worthwhile to look at what Federal Reserve policymakers themselves predict.

Reviewing the so-called” circle story” that the Fed releases every third will help us achieve this. It expresses the opinions of the 19 Federal Open Market Committee people, who frequently refer to the FOMC as” the Fed.” These are the people who determine interest costs and economic policy.

Seven of the 19 have been confirmed as Federal Reserve Board rulers by the Senate. The other leaders are the leaders of the 12 local Federal Reserve banks that are separate. Only 12 of the 19 votes, or the seven administrators and five president, are cast at any given time. The New York president often votes, and four of the five rotate each year. The circle story displays the interest-rate forecasts for the upcoming three years and the longer term for all 19 participants in the sessions.

In the dot plot in which Fed policymakers project future interest rates, a majority see the Fed's benchmark rate remaining above 5% at the end of next year. (Federal Reserve graphic)
Most people believe that the Fed’s benchmark price will still be above 5 % at the end of the following year in the circle storyline where Fed policymakers project potential interest rates. ( Federal Reserve Illustration )

The Fed’s benchmark rate is above 5 % at the end of 2024, according to the most recent dot plot, which was published in September, and above 4.5 % for 17 of the 19. They forecast that prices did stay close to their present levels for at least another year.

12 of the 19 projects had a standard level of between 3 and 4 by the end of 2025. We won’t receive bulk support for the 2s until the end of 2026.

For the next three decades, just one FOMC part will see the Fed’s benchmark rate rise above 5.5 %, which is great news for farmers, farmers, and other business loans.

The projections are still close to new highs due to uncertainty regarding prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated following its most recent meeting that the FOMC didn’t low rates until it is certain that 2 % is a manageable level of inflation. He said,” We’re a long way from 2 % inflation.”

With all, the FOMC people might also be mistaken. These lines are basically predictions. They shift from one appointment to the next. No one has an unfailing crystal ball, despite the fact that the persons making them more knowledgeable about these topics than the regular citizen.

Is there anything that may occur to change the discussion and lower rates earlier, you may wonder?

Crisis does occur. Although it appears that the Fed has so far planned for the business to experience a” soft landing,” some analysts also predict that there will be another recession. If those economists were to be proven correct, there would be a lot of pressure on the Fed to reduce rates. A Fed decision to cut may be fairly simple if the crisis brought inflation down. ( For the Fed, a recession coupled with obstinate inflation would be nightmare. )

The compromise may be mistaken in another way, and this would be worse for company borrowers: inflation could spike once more.

Charges may soar if the Middle East and Ukraine are still at war. If many other labor unions match the sizable wage increases that Teamsters and United Auto Workers and Air Line Pilots ( CQ ) recently won, inflation may also return. ( Overall, though, recent wage increases have been declining. )

The Fed would almost surely raise rates if inflation returned to the northeast and all bets were off. Although it is conceivable, a sharp increase in inflation is not the most possible result. The real question right now, and perhaps for a few months to come, is not how large, but how much.

Urban Lehner & nbsp, a longtime editor and correspondent for the Wall Street Journal Asia, is the editor emeritus of DTN / The Progressive Farmer. & nbsp,

Copyright 2023 DTN / The Progressive Farmer is the title of this article, which was first released on November 2 by the latter news organization and is now being republished with authority by Asia Times. All right are reserved. Urban Lehner andnbsp on Twitter: @ urbanize

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Nanowire ‘brain’ learns more efficiently than computer AI

The world is infatuated with artificial intelligence (AI), and for good reason. AI systems can process vast quantities of data in a seemingly superhuman way.

However, current AI systems rely on computers running complex algorithms based on artificial neural networks. These use huge amounts of energy, and use even more energy if you are trying to work with data that changes in real time.

We are working on a completely new approach to “machine intelligence.” Instead of using artificial neural network software, we have developed a physical neural network in hardware that operates much more efficiently.

Our neural networks, made from silver nanowires, can learn on the fly to recognize handwritten numbers and memorize strings of digits.

Our results are published in a new paper in Nature Communications, conducted with colleagues from the University of Sydney and the University of California, Los Angeles.

A random network of tiny wires

Using nanotechnology, we made networks of silver nanowires about one-thousandth the width of a human hair. These nanowires naturally form a random network, much like the pile of sticks in a game of pick-up sticks.

The nanowires’ network structure looks a lot like the network of neurons in our brains. Our research is part of a field called neuromorphic computing, which aims to emulate the brain-like functionality of neurons and synapses in hardware.

A microscope photo showing a messy web of thin grey lines against a black background.
Each nanowire is around one-thousandth the width of a human hair, and together they form a random network that behaves much like the web of neurons in our brains. Zhu et al. / Nature Communications

Our nanowire networks display brain-like behaviors in response to electrical signals. External electrical signals cause changes in how electricity is transmitted at the points where nanowires intersect, which is similar to how biological synapses work.

There can be tens of thousands of synapse-like intersections in a typical nanowire network, which means the network can efficiently process and transmit information carried by electrical signals.

Learning and adapting in real-time

In our study, we show that because nanowire networks can respond to signals that change in time, they can be used for online machine learning.

In conventional machine learning, data is fed into the system and processed in batches. In the online learning approach, we can introduce data to the system as a continuous stream in time.

With each new piece of data, the system learns and adapts in real-time. It demonstrates “on the fly” learning, which we humans are good at but current AI systems are not.

The online learning approach enabled by our nanowire network is more efficient than conventional batch-based learning in AI applications.

In batch learning, a significant amount of memory is needed to process large datasets, and the system often needs to go through the same data multiple times to learn. This not only demands high computational resources but also consumes more energy overall.

Our online approach requires less memory as data is processed continuously. Moreover, our network learns from each data sample only once, significantly reducing energy use and making the process highly efficient.

Recognizing and remembering numbers

We tested the nanowire network with a benchmark image recognition task using the MNIST dataset of handwritten digits.

The greyscale pixel values in the images were converted to electrical signals and fed into the network. After each digit sample, the network learned and refined its ability to recognize the patterns, displaying real-time learning.

A grid of handwritten digits
The nanowire network learned to recognise handwritten numbers, a common benchmark for machine learning systems. NIST / Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

Using the same learning method, we also tested the nanowire network with a memory task involving patterns of digits, much like the process of remembering a phone number. The network demonstrated an ability to remember previous digits in the pattern.

Overall, these tasks demonstrate the network’s potential for emulating brain-like learning and memory. Our work has so far only scratched the surface of what neuromorphic nanowire networks can do.

Zdenka Kuncic is Professor of Physics, University of Sydney and Ruomin Zhu is a PhD student, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Electric shield: Taiwan girding for a Chinese HEMP attack

Taiwan has reinforced a critical missile command center against the threat of High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) attacks, a response to growing concerns China may use such weaponry to plunge the self-governing island into chaos before or during a potential invasion and deter a possible US intervention.

Last month, Taiwan News reported that the self-governing island’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) confirmed that the Taiwanese Navy has hardened a key missile command center against possible HEMP attacks but denied any new facility has been built for that express purpose.

Taiwan News notes that there are concerns in Taipei that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could detonate nuclear weapons at high altitudes to instantly paralyze all electronic equipment and hamper military defense efforts.

The report notes that the Taiwanese Navy has already completed the Gangping Camp in New Taipei City’s Sanzhi District, which can withstand HEMP attacks. The base is affiliated with the Haifeng Brigade, the Taiwanese Navy’s motorized land-based anti-ship missile unit.

The Gangping Camp’s critical component is reportedly the shielding room, which is designed and constructed according to US military nuclear protection standards.

The Taiwan News report says the structure combines outer steel beams and steel columns to block HEMP radiation electromagnetic waves, reducing their force from as high as 50,000 volts per meter to just 5 volts per meter.

It also notes that the shield room has a complete ship monitoring system for the waters surrounding northern Taiwan and a fire control center for shore-based anti-ship missiles.

Taiwan News says that if China were to launch a HEMP attack, the base in Sanzhi would probably still be able to command the launch of Hsiung Feng II and Hsiung Feng III anti-ship missile launchers in northern coastal areas as well as shore-based Harpoon anti-ship missiles.

China has conducted extensive research into developing HEMP weapons, which it views as critical to its military doctrine.

Source: US Congress report

Vincent Pry notes in a June 2020 study for the US EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security that China has invested heavily in protecting its own military forces and critical infrastructures from HEMP effects.

Pry says that China views a nuclear HEMP attack as part of information or cyber warfare and thus deserves the highest priority as the most likely kind of future warfare. He says that China could use a low-yield nuclear weapon at high altitudes to generate a HEMP attack that would devastate unshielded electronics.

Pry notes that Chinese military writings have several references to launching HEMP attacks against the US, with China aiming to use HEMP weapons offensively while also defending against them. He also says that China’s military doctrine closely associates cyber-attacks with nuclear HEMP attacks as part of combined operation Total Information Warfare.

L J Eads and other writers note in a September 2023 report by the CCP BioThreats Initiative (CCP BTI) that the defense sector is undergoing a significant transformation due to the integration of AI, big data and cloud computing capabilities, emphasizing the role of EMP weapons as a modern countermeasure.

In that direction, Eads and others note that China has made notable strides in EMP weapons technology including high-power pulse sources and military microwave applications.

They mention China’s growing lead in EMP weapons development, noting China’s patent applications in EMP technology have increased significantly since 2006, accounting for 37% of all global applications and a leading 124 patents focused on high-power microwave technology.

In October 2022, Asia Times reported that China is looking into using nuclear weapons to destroy near-earth orbit satellite constellations such as Starlink, with researchers from the Xian-based Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology claiming to have developed a model evaluating the performance of nuclear anti-satellite weapons at different altitudes and yields.

Their findings show that a 10-megaton warhead could destroy satellites at an atmospheric near-space altitude of 80 kilometers and cause satellite failures and damage. 

Conventional anti-satellite weapons can only target a limited number of satellites, but a controlled nuclear explosion could destroy multiple satellites in one attack. The simulation shows the possibility of using nuclear weapons in a HEMP attack that disables satellites, warships and power grids.

Moreover, in September 2021, Asia Times reported that China had developed a hypersonic missile that could generate an EMP that instantly damages communication and power lines, crippling a populace within seconds.

With a range of 3,000 kilometers, the new missile would stay within the earth’s atmosphere to dodge space-based early warning systems. Once over the target area, a chemical explosion could be triggered that would compress an electrically charged magnet known as a “flux compression generator,” converting the shock energy to short but extremely powerful EMPs.

Engineering scientist Sun Zheng and his co-researchers claim that it can release 95% of the energy in just 10 seconds, suitable for instantaneous discharge to cause EMP damage.

EMP attacks are key to Total Information Warfare. Image: Twitter Screengrab

This weapon would cause the effective burnout of critical electronic devices in the target information network within a range of two kilometers. Compared to other non-nuclear EMP bombs, the weapon would have no batteries.

All told, Taiwan has good reason to harden its defenses against a potential Chinese HEMP attack, as the latter has already simulated using such weapons in a potential forcible seizure of the self-governing island without crossing the nuclear weapons threshold.

A declassified 2005 US National Ground Intelligence Report says that China could favor such an asymmetric response against superior US forces in a Taiwan conflict because it would not inflict any damage to living organisms while at the same time disabling Taiwan’s military and dissuading US carrier battlegroups from intervening.

It goes on to say that a Chinese nuclear HEMP attack would minimize military casualties among Taiwanese and US forces, thus potentially reducing the hostility of the Taiwanese people over a forced “reunification” with the mainland while minimizing the risk of US nuclear retaliation.

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Netanyahu wobbles as Israelis rally around the flag

Over the past year, Israel has witnessed an extraordinary wave of non-violent protests, involving hundreds of thousands of activists from across society. The extensive demonstrations were triggered by a judicial overhaul announced by the Israeli government in early 2023.

The government passed into law in July 2023 the first planned change of the overhaul – a so-called “reasonableness” bill. This removed the power of the country’s supreme court (and lower courts) to cancel government decisions deemed “extremely unreasonable.”

The proposed judicial overhaul, which was designed to weaken the judicial branch, plunged Israel into one of the most serious internal crises in its history. An unprecedented pro-democracy civil movement mounted an extensive anti-government campaign aimed at stopping the judicial overhaul.

Each week, hundreds of thousands of Israelis demonstrated. These included several groups of reservists serving in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) – including pilots and combat units – who refused to report to duty unless the government scrapped the judicial overall.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, presided over this internal turmoil. Yet rather than seeking a political compromise, his strategy was to sow political and social division.

Netanyahu and his ministers denounced the pro-democracy demonstrators as “traitors”, “anarchists”, and the “privileged elite.” In fact, the protesters came from all walks of life: tech workers, lawyers, teachers, professionals, as well as members of the security services.

The pro-democracy campaigners, in turn, have referred to Netanyahu as the “crime minister.” This aims to highlight that the prime minister’s newfound impetus to weaken Israel’s judiciary arose after he became embroiled in a criminal trial. He faces multiple corruption charges: bribery, fraud and breach of trust, stemming from three separate cases.

Campaigners also repeatedly charged the government with violating the social contract with its citizens. They accuse the ultra-orthodox bloc, which Netanyahu relies on to hold on to power as part of his coalition, of using the judicial overhaul to preserve its economic interests and political influence and of permanently exempting ultra-orthodox males from serving in the IDF.

Social resilience and political strains

The murderous attacks launched by Hamas on October 7, which triggered the Israel-Hamas 2023 war, have had a unifying effect on Israeli society. The social divisions that marked the confrontations over the judicial overhaul have given way to a rare moment of social unity and rallying around the flag.

One of the key organizations opposing Netanyahu’s judicial overhaul, Brothers in Arms, has now turned its entire logistical, financial and human effort to support the war effort. It is also helping the communities that were devastated after more than 1,300 Israelis were murdered by Hamas terrorists and more than 230 kidnapped.

Meanwhile, several religious Jews volunteered with the ultra-orthodox Zaka organization, which retrieves bodies and body parts after terror attacks. They have been tasked with the terrible duty of identifying victims.

But while Israeli society has pulled together, the country’s leadership has not risen to the occasion. Given the monumental military and intelligence failure Israel experienced on October 7, the Netanyahu government entered the war with a severe legitimacy deficit.

And yet it took the prime minister five days to form an emergency government. This brought in Benny Ganz, former defense minister and the leader of the National Unity party.

Israel’s ‘war cabinet’: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and have been joined by opposition figure and former defense minister Benny Gantz. Photo: EPA-EFE via The Conversation / Abir Sultan / Pool

Gantz will serve alongside Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in the “war management cabinet.” Former chief of staff with the IDF, Gadi Eisenkot (National Unity Party), and Ron Dermer, Israel’s minister for strategic affairs – and a close Netanyahu ally – will sit as observers.

The formation of the emergency government does not amount to a National Unity Government, which many Israelis had hoped for. Yair Lapid, the leader of the main opposition party, Yesh Atid, has so far opted not to join the government.

He has justified his decision on two grounds: Netanyahu’s insistence on keeping the extreme right parties in the government and the proposal to form a double security cabinet without establishing clear lines of authority.

Netanyahu’s day of reckoning?

Whereas the ongoing political divide is significant, the more serious tension seems to be between Netanyahu and the security-military establishment.

Since the October 7 attacks, heads of Israel’s key security organizations – the IDF and the intelligence service Shin Bet – have acknowledged their responsibility for the multilayered system failure that enabled the Hamas offensive.

In fact, Netanyahu has refused to assume any responsibility. Worse still, as the Israeli ground invasion into Gaza deepened, Netanyahu wrote on Twitter (now renamed X) at 0100 on October 29:

In contradiction to the lying claims: Under no circumstances and at no stage was Prime Minister Netanyahu warned about Hamas intending to go to war … Every defence official, including the heads of military intelligence and the Shin Bet [Israel’s security agency], believed Hamas was deterred and sought accommodation. This was the assessment that was presented time and time again to the prime minister and the cabinet by all defence officials and the intelligence community up to the outbreak of the war.

The prime minister later deleted the message and apologized. But crucially, he did not say that what he tweeted was wrong. This leaves the strong impression that Netanyahu is still highly invested in passing the blame for Hamas’s attacks to secure his political and personal future. The fear is that this may affect his decisions in relation to the war.

This concern has prompted calls from business leaders, columnists, diplomats and former security personnel, to remove Netanyahu and replace the government, possibly through a constructive vote of no-confidence. Netanyahu is hanging on, for now, but his day of reckoning will come, possibly even before the Israel-Hamas 2023 war is over.

Amnon Aran is Professor of International Relations, City, University of London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Why the Philippines is exiting the Belt and Road

MANILA – Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr was among the 23 national leaders who attended last month’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) summit in Beijing, marking the 10th anniversary of the US$1 trillion globe-spanning infrastructure-building program.

At the event, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced close to $100 billion in new state policy bank financing for the initiative. In a white paper published last month, China maintained “the ultimate goal of the BRI is to help build a global community of shared future.”

But the Philippines won’t be among the recipients of China’s largesse or shared future as Marcos Jr’s administration swerves decidedly away from China’s monied but troubled program for paving its global influence.

In a major development with geopolitical implications, the Philippine Department of Transportation has announced the full termination of a series of big-ticket infrastructure projects with China in favor of Japanese and Western rivals.

According to the Philippine Senate, nearly all of China’s key investment initiatives in the Philippines are now in doubt due to both economic and political factors. The upshot is a new nadir in Philippine-China relations, a dramatic about-turn from the six years of warm engagement under the pro-Beijing Rodrigo Duterte presidency.

For the Philippines, China has largely engaged in “pledge trap” diplomacy during the Duterte administration, a cynical ploy that entailed forward-deployed concessions in the South China Sea in exchange for largely illusory investment pledges. China pledged as much as $24 billion in infrastructure projects under Duterte, nearly none of which have been delivered.

Marcos Jr’s apparent departure from the BRI is rooted in deep bilateral grievances over contested territories in the South China Sea. Most recently, the Marcos Jr administration expressed vocal outrage over China’s harassment of Philippine resupply and patrol missions on and around the Second Thomas Shoal, where Manila maintains troops on a grounded ship.

A member of the Philippine Coast Guard while being shadowed by a Chinese Coast Guard ship at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands in the disputed South China Sea. Photo: Asia Times Files / Facebook Screengrab / Philippine Star via AFP

Following a recent collision between Chinese and Philippine sea vessels, US President Joe Biden made it clear that America will respond to any attack on Philippine ships, aircraft or soldiers stationed in the South China Sea as outlined under the Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).

From Beijing’s perspective, however, the Marcos administration has walked back its earlier commitment to pursue a “new golden era” of bilateral relations by actively courting a stronger US military presence on its soil.

Under an expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the Pentagon is set to gain access to a whole host of military facilities close to both the South China Sea as well as Taiwan’s southern shores.

Upon closer examination, however, it’s becoming clear to many observers that the BRI is under strain amid China’s economic slowdown, property crisis and various investment debacles overseas.

From its peak in 2018, China’s overall BRI-related activities are down by some 40%, according to recent reports. This is partly due to declining financing from Beijing as well as regulatory hurdles and financial fragility in various recipient countries.

A recent research report published by Boston University found that while China’s development finance institutions provided partner nations with about $331 billion between 2013 and 2021, “many of the recipients of Chinese finance are subject to significant debt distress.”

By some accounts, China spent as much as $240 billion to bail out BRI recipient nations on the verge of bankruptcy, most dramatically in the case of Sri Lanka and increasingly in Pakistan and Laos.

Heightened China-Philippine sea tensions have coincided with a virtual collapse in bilateral investment deals. Though two-way trade between the two neighbors remains robust, although largely in Beijing’s favor, nearly all of Beijing’s infrastructure investment pledges made during the Duterte era are now in jeopardy.

Just days after a Chinese vessel collided with a Philippine resupply mission in the South China Sea, Philippine Transportation Secretary Jaime Batista announced that the Philippines is scrapping $4.9 billion worth of Chinese big-ticket infrastructure projects, involving two railway projects on the northern island of Luzon and another on Duterte’s home southern island of Mindanao.

“We have three projects that won’t be funded by the Chinese government anymore. We can’t wait forever and it seems like China isn’t that interested anymore,” Bautista told a forum organized by European investors in Manila. Instead, the Philippines is now seeking alternative “better” deals from traditional investment partners like Japan, South Korea, the US and the European Union.

The Filipino official complained about the lack of financial commitment and perceived as relatively onerous terms of Chinese-funded projects in comparison to Japan’s concessional loan programs. Japan is currently developing a multi-billion subway project in Manila and several major “connectivity” initiatives in industrialized regions of the country.

In fact, the Marcos Jr administration warned as early as last year of the potential cancellation of Chinese-backed projects due to the lack of any meaningful progress on the ground. The issue was also raised during the Philippine president’s state visit to Beijing in January, to no avail of a renewed Chinese commitment.

According to Philippine Senator Sherwin Gatchalian, as many as six big-ticket Chinese projects are now being “reconsidered” due to Chinese delays, concerns over lending terms and broader geopolitical frictions.

Where’s the money? Then-Philippine Transport Secretary Art Tugade (left) and China Railway Design Corporation and Guangzhou Wanan Construction Supervision Co Ltd. Consortium (CRDC) Representative Weidong Guo sign the Project Management Consultancy contract for the Tagum-Davao-Digos segment of the stalled Minadano Railway Project. Photo: Philippine Department of Transportation

Chinese projects likely to face Manila’s axe include the Samal Island-Davao City Connector project; the Chico River Pump Irrigation Project; the New Centennial Water Source — Kaliwa Dam Project; the Philippine National Railways South Long Haul Project or the PNR Bicol; the Mindanao Railway Project Tagum-Davao-Digos segment; and a closed-circuit television project in several cities in Metro-Manila.

“We [in the senate] convened an oversight on [China’s] ODA [Official Development Assistance], so I know that many of the ODA-funded projects are delayed due to the implementation of the right of way and bidding,” Gatchalian said in an interview.

“China’s grace period is shorter with only five to seven years compared to Japan with five to almost 10 years, which means (with China) we would need to immediately pay and it would be more expensive. Let’s compare the economics: it is cheaper in Japan,” he said.

But as the Philippines effectively pulls out of China’s BRI, the risk of a more volatile downward spiral in bilateral ties is rising. And it remains to be seen whether Japan, the US, South Korea and Europe will actually fill the infrastructure gap China had earlier pledged to address.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

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What Israel can expect in a ‘Gaza Metro’ tunnel fight

Amid fears of yet another long war in the region, Israel has now begun its ground campaign in Gaza.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has already claimed several successes in its three-week campaign, including the elimination of several terrorist leaders including Ibrahim Biari, who it described as a “ringleader” of the October 7 attacks, and liberating at least one hostage held by Hamas.

But Israel’s military commanders will know that this is unlikely to be a simple operation. Among the factors complicating their mission of eliminating Hamas is the “Gaza Metro”, a vast network of interconnected tunnels within the region. Having invested heavily in subterranean infrastructure over the years, Hamas is counting on this network to aid its survival in the coming weeks.

Underground engineering has a long history in warfare. From antiquity to Vietnam, a range of groups have used tunnels to gain an advantage.

Not only can they provide concealment and freedom of movement, but they also present a range of challenges for the attacking force – they can be hardened against any attacks from the surface. Storming underground networks can also be prohibitively difficult for an attacker, given the limited space available.

Sometimes they work. Sometimes they don’t. For instance, the threat posed by Western airpower caused Islamic State (IS) to construct a large network of tunnels. These tunnels made surveillance and airstrikes difficult and were riddled with traps, making capture by ground forces dangerous and difficult.

These benefits only really work if the tunnels are defended, of course, which wasn’t always the case. For instance, in the 2015 battle for Sinjar, the majority of IS fighters were long gone by the time Kurdish land forces arrived to liberate the city.

Established network

Hamas’s tunnel network presents a unique problem for the IDF. There have been tunnel networks in Gaza for years. Initially used for smuggling, they were quickly turned towards offensive uses, playing a role in kidnapping and weapons storage.

The Hamas subterranean networks really began to evolve after 2012, when restrictions were lifted on the importing of building materials to the region. The militant group was able to redirect construction supplies away from civilian infrastructure projects to expand its underground presence.

While the tunnels vary in quality, many are well-equipped and hardened, and deep enough to evade detection by ground-penetrating radar.

Palestinian fighters from the armed wing of Hamas. The terror group is expected to use a spiderweb of tunnels to launch ambush attacks on invading Israel forces in Gaza. Photo: The Jerusalem Post / Twitter

Unsurprisingly, key Hamas allies, including Iran are boasting about the Gaza Metro. The network provides the group with a haven and a means to move around the region unobserved.

It places leadership and organizational infrastructure out of reach from air attacks. The system is laden with supplies as well as weapons and fuel.

Defended, booby-trapped and likely to be populated with human shields and hostages as well as fighters, they will be challenging for even a well-equipped and capable attacking force.

Yet, if not addressed, Hamas may continue to operate irrespective of what happens on the surface. Indeed, as many of the tunnels lead across the border, there is a risk of further incursions, rocket strikes and attacks on IDF forces. And, given the heavily urbanized nature of Gaza, much of the network is beneath civilian infrastructure, which further complicates Israeli operations.

Hamas is a proficient and prolific user of tunnels. But in honing its expertise, the group has also provided Israeli forces with a decades-long crash course in how to deal with their underground operations.

In addition to their own experience with Hamas tunnels, the IDF can also draw upon lessons from the war on terror, where coalition forces had to contend with both natural and purpose-built tunnels, and even US experiences with drug cartels burrowing on their southern border with Mexico.

Bitter experience

While Hamas is counting on its tunnels to cause problems, Israel already has a range of solutions. It has already gained valuable experience in underground operations, having learned hard lessons from the past. A range of innovative purpose-built technologies and strategies can be used to provide the IDF with a technological edge.

Some are simple, such as flooding tunnels with sewage, whereas others are more complex, involving specialized engineering. Some solutions, such as ground-penetrating explosives, might be difficult to use, given the presence of civilians.

‘Gaza Metro’ map shows labyrinthine network of tunnels. Image: Twitter Screengrab / WSJ

Israel has known about the tunnels for a long time and is taking them seriously. Recent operations suggest that the time spent training for this exact scenario is going to pay off, at least to a certain extent.

But dealing with a network of more than 300 miles is still going to represent a massive challenge, and storming or blocking off every part of the system is probably impossible.

Bitter experience has taught Israel most of Hamas’s tactics already – but this does not mean that the group doesn’t have more tricks up its sleeve. Hamas’s recent offensive success was rooted in the way it used a number of relatively low-level capabilities in concert.

For instance, paragliders, ground assaults and rockets only have a limited impact when used individually, but together, were used to devastating effect on October 7.

Now Hamas will be hoping for the same degree of success when acting on the defensive. Depending on how Israel chooses to deal with the issue, they may find their ground forces bogged down in slow-moving subterranean activity, or risk heavy civilian casualties if they simply choose to bomb or collapse the tunnels.

Almost any solution Israel chooses can be turned into a Hamas advantage: both in military and political terms.

Ultimately, Israel has no perfect solution to the complex problem posed by the Hamas underground network. But years of dealing with the Hamas Metro means the IDF is not entirely unequipped to confront the challenge.

It seems inevitable that the next days and weeks will be a bitter and bloody struggle, both in the streets of Gaza and as deep as 70 meters below ground.

Christopher Morris, Teaching Fellow, School of Strategy, Marketing and Innovation, University of Portsmouth

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Sustainable pivot needed to secure Laos’ future 

Laos, known for its flowing rivers and abundant biodiversity, is at a critical crossroads. It sits at the heart of Southeast Asia, as part of a very dynamic region that has recently experienced multiple transformative changes to its socio-economic fabric alongside equally rapid climate change. This has created a major shift in opportunities and risks that justify revisiting a development model set two decades ago. 

The ambitious drive for hydropower has transformed the country, bringing some positives alongside more challenging outcomes. One unanticipated consequence is how hydropower projects have contributed to the nation’s significant debt.

It is now critical that Laos pivots and diversifies its foreign revenue streams. By reducing its reliance on selling energy from hydropower, Laos could pursue alternatives that improve its current fiscal vulnerability while lowering environmental and social risks, and improving transboundary water security. 

The Mekong River and its tributaries are lifelines, supporting biodiversity, livelihoods, climate resilience and businesses. The river also offers significant potential for producing hydropower and, not surprisingly, Laos has been eager to tap this resource and establish itself as a significant energy player in Southeast Asia – in line with the country’s aspirations for economic advancement.

With the government setting its sights on achieving a remarkable 12 gigawatts of hydropower capacity by 2025 and an ambitious 20GW by 2030, substantial investments have been funneled into hydropower infrastructure. 

Laos’ pursuit of foreign investment and energy exports have been scrutinized by other riparian countries, gauging its conformity within the framework of Mekong River Commission procedures.

There was much discussion of the impact these hydropower projects would have on water flows, sediment flows, water quality and fisheries, with many analysts predicting that the projects developed through public-private partnerships would be financially profitable. And yet, overall, they have significantly contributed to Laos’ debt commitments that exceed 100% of the country’s GDP.

Hydropower was expected to drag its people out of poverty, but Laos is now walking a financial tightrope and teetering on the edge of a precarious economic situation.

Short-term benefits

Some positive changes have occurred, including temporary job opportunities and better infrastructure. However, these initial gains fall short of meeting needs, with the World Bank reporting in 2022 that total revenue from the power sector represents less than 10% of Laos’ fiscal revenue. 

These short-term benefits of hydropower projects on the nation’s prosperity also need to be further assessed with a wider lens. Local communities have borne the brunt of the social costs through forced relocations and disrupted livelihoods.

This has had an especially harmful impact on women and ethnic minority groups, whose right to land tenure is not explicitly recognized within domestic law, prohibiting them from compensation or access to ancestral lands and livelihoods. 

Not to mention these threats simply add on to existing impacts created by land-use change, unsustainable sand mining and the climate crisis. With fish migration blocked, sediment flows tumbling, and water levels changing more frequently in unpredictable and extreme ways, millions of people living downstream are increasingly impacted.

Pamok, Laos: Life along the banks of the Mekong River. Photo: Nicolas Axelrod / Ruom / WWF

Fish catches are dwindling, fresh water for irrigation is running short, and the delta is sinking much faster than the sea is rising. Countless sectors have taken a hit, but agriculture, tourism and energy have been especially impacted.  

Hydropower generation is also not immune to the uncertain effects of climate change in the region. Vulnerability arises from less predictable river flows, notably more frequent droughts and intense rainfall events, which bring significant risks to both the safety of hydropower projects and their electricity production.

Hydropower infrastructure, promoted as a climate mitigation measure, too often has counterproductive impacts on adaptation performance. Positive long-term climate outcomes are not always significant and may actually end up having unfavorable trade-offs for others.

Continuing on this capital-intensive, high-impact hydropower path bears the risk of further straining Laos’ financial situation and exacerbating tensions with its downstream neighbours. There are alternative, lower-risk, higher-reward paths for Laos that should be further explored.

A path forward

A new report by WWF proposes revisiting three undervalued sectors in Laos to bring in foreign revenue to drive development: agriculture, tourism and distributed energy. Investing in these sectors would create enabling environments for greener and more inclusive private-sector-led growth for Laos, with fewer risks stemming from uncertainty in power purchasing agreements.

It would also give the country a competitive edge on the sustainability front, boost efforts to meet its commitments under the Global Biodiversity Framework and support adaptation to the changing climate.

Fishing on the Mekong in Pamok, Laos. Photo: Nicolas Axelrod / Ruom / WWF

Laos’ agriculture and tourism sectors have already been recognized as areas that boast significant labor-force participation rates and foreign-exchange earning capabilities. The recent launch of the Lao-China railway will not only support increased exports of agricultural products to China, but also open doors to other rail-linked international destinations amid growing demand for healthy food and high-end tourism. 

Alternatives can also be found in distributed renewable energy sources, like solar, wind and sustainably sourced biomass. These can be viable substitutes for some planned hydropower investments and complement existing installed hydropower capacity.

By developing renewable low-impact energy, Laos can strengthen its energy security while also securing a greener, more sustainable future and continue to deliver against its climate mitigation ambitions.

Laos has a tremendous opportunity to leapfrog ahead by diversifying its foreign-revenue strategy and, in doing so, the nation could become a model for integrated economic advancement, climate resilience and environmental conservation.

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Visiting the world’s largest fusion reactor

This is the second installment in Asia Times Science Editor Jonathan Tennenbaum’s series “Fusion Diary.” For an introduction to the series, readers are encouraged to start with “US abandoning its leadership in fusion energy,” by Matthew Moynihan and Alfred B Bortz. Then read part 1 of the series here. – eds

I am standing in the gallery of the control room of the Joint European Torus (JET) – the world’s largest tokamak reactor, situated in the Culham, England. Built as a cooperative project of European nations, JET has been operating for over 40 years, serving as a workhorse for international cooperation in plasma and fusion research.

In December 2021, JET achieved the latest world record for the amount of energy generated by fusion reactions under controlled conditions. During a 5 second pulse, JET produced 59 MJ of thermal energy from fusion of deuterium and tritium. Taking account of the amount of energy absorbed in heating the plasma to its 100 million degree temperature, JET came within a factor of 3 of reaching so-called scientific breakeven.

As I mentioned in the previous article there is now no reasonable doubt concerning the feasibility of generating large net energy outputs by fusion reactors of the tokamak type. A large portion of the credit goes to experiments on JET, which have produced a wealth of knowledge and experience in the course of four decades of operation.  

The JET launch countdown

I always wanted to see how a large tokamak fusion reactor is operated. With me on the gallery was JET Senior Exploitation Manager Fernanda Rimini, PhD (physics). She explained what was happening in the control room and kindly responded to my flood of questions.

JET operates in pulses (“shots”) up to about 10 seconds long. Each shot constitutes a separate experiment, and the operators generally change the parameters between shots. Typically one shot is run about every 30-40 minutes, to allow time not only to permit the reactor coils and other systems to cool down but also to analyze the data needed to make decisions about the next experiment. Sometimes the scientists ask for more time for thinking and discussion.

Each shot is preceded by a “countdown,” analogous to launching a rocket. JET is an extremely complex machine, particularly when we take account of the numerous auxiliary systems and diagnostic instruments attached to it. Not surprisingly, JET’s control room somewhat resembles the control center of a space mission.

Rimini pointed to a horseshoe-shaped central table, from which the machine is run by operators including a specialist in charge of the magnetic field coils that confine the plasma, another in charge of the vacuum systems, another in charge of the heating systems and so on. An engineer in charge oversees the whole process.

Around the desk are workstations for staff controlling diagnostic systems and monitoring the data output. Finally, a few scientists evaluate the results and make decisions about the next experiment.

The control room of the Joint European Torus (JET) fusion reactor. Photo: UK Atomic Energy Agency

Once a shot has been initiated, events inside the reactor unfold too rapidly for the human operators to intervene. Accordingly, the machine has real-time control systems that are programmed in advance. These systems steer the plasma by adjusting the currents in the magnetic coils, changing the parameters of the external heating systems and injecting tiny amounts of substances into the plasma.  

Rimini told me that the countdown to a shot lasts two minutes. First, you start all the subsystems and synchronize them. At the “zero” point of the countdown, the magnetic field coils are activated. It takes about 40 seconds for the coils to reach their full parameters. At that point gas is injected into the toroidal vacuum chamber.

What happens then? The current in the central solenoid is ramped down, and the change in magnetic field strength induces a powerful electric field inside the toroidal chamber, ripping the atoms apart into electrons and nuclei, transforming the gas into a plasma, and inducing an electric current of about 4 million amperes in the plasma. This current heats the plasma to ultra-high temperatures (so-called ohmic heating), while generating a powerful internal magnetic field.

The toroidal coils around the vacuum vessel create an additional magnetic field which, combined with the field generated by the central current, serves to confine the plasma and keep it away from walls of the reactor. The particles circulate in complicated helical trajectories. Poloidal coils, parallel to the torus, help to position the plasma inside the chamber. The auxiliary systems that use particle beams and electromagnetic waves to heat the plasma are turned on.

General scheme of coils, magnetic fields and induced plasma current in a tokamak. Graphic: Wikimedia

Controlling this whole process is a remarkable feat. Millions of amperes of current flow through the magnetic coils. During the experiment, the power consumption of the system reaches a peak of 1000 megawatts. Over half of the power comes from onsite generators that convert rotational energy, stored in the motion of two 750-ton flywheels, into a brief pulse of electric power.

Back in the control rooms, screens on the wall show measurements of the main plasma parameters. How dense is the plasma? How hot is the plasma? What is the current in the coils? How much power are we putting in from the heating systems? On the right side of the wall is a screen showing the evolution of the plasma itself, taken by fast video cameras. I was visiting just after a shot was completed and could see view a replay of the shot in slow motion.

Note, that the visible light is only a part of the electromagnetic radiation emitted by the plasma; the core region of the plasma can barely be seen here.

JET vacuum vessel. Image: Wikimedia

Breakthroughs in computer modeling

I wanted to know how well scientists have learned to control the hot plasma in JET and other tokamak reactors. Plasmas are extraordinarily complex physical systems displaying highly nonlinear behavior and a wide variety of instabilities, which can undermine the functioning of the reactor and even cause serious damage.

In the past, the shortcomings of existing mathematical models and limited computer power made it virtually impossible to simulate and predict the behavior of plasmas in tokamaks and other magnetic confinement fusion devices in a reliable fashion. Tokamak scientists learned, by decades of hard experience, how to avoid certain dangerous areas of instability.

The situation has improved radically. Superfast computers, machine learning and qualitative advances in methods of mathematical modeling of plasma processes now produce a degree of agreement between simulation and experiment that would have been unimaginable in the past.

Not least of all, the new computer codes provide the basis for real-time control of plasmas, steering them away from “bad behavior” and permitting maintenance of a desired steady state.

“There are no huge surprises,” Rimini said. “The models that we have represent the core plasma quite well.” Still, she said, “We need to understand more about what is happening at the edge of the plasma. Not because we don’t really know what happens, but because we are trying to [avoid] large perturbations and have nice little ones instead. And that’s where we are still very much in the research phase.”

The plasma ‘miracle

In fact, processes taking place at the “edge” of the plasma have decisive importance for the performance of tokamak reactors. How does it come about that a plasma in JET has an “edge”? One would naturally expect the density of plasma to drop off only gradually as you move out radially from the core region toward the walls of the reactor.

The answer lies in a self-organizing process, in which the plasma creates its own barrier region – the so-called “pedestal” – that prevents particles from diffusing outward, forming a relatively sharp edge layer around the plasma.

This phenomenon was discovered in 1982 by researchers working with the ASDEX experimental tokamak in Germany. It is connected with a specific plasma state (or regime), now called the “H-mode.” (“H” stands for “high confinement.”) Researchers have since learned how to “nudge” the plasma into this H-mode routinely.

In our discussion, Fernanda Rimini called the existence of the H-mode “a kind of miracle.” Operating tokamaks in this mode dramatically increases their ability to confine the plasma. Together with breakthroughs in computer modeling and the advent of high-temperature superconductors, experience with the H-mode is a major source of confidence that tokamak reactors can become economically viable sources of energy in the future.

As is usual in plasma physics, turbulence and instabilities occur – called “edge localized modes (ELMs)” – which can cause plasma to “leak out” into the surroundings. This is a huge topic in fusion today and one of the focal points of work on the JET. JET scientists have developed special diagnostic systems to study the edge and “pedestal” region of the plasma.

Interestingly, the strategy is not to suppress the ELMs completely but, rather, to control them in such a way that a small amount of plasma can move out of the bulk of the plasma into the so-called divertor region, where impurities and helium nuclei (the “ash”) produced by the fusion reactions are removed.

In this way one can keep the core plasma “clean.” Rimini remarked that we don’t want large perturbations, only “nice little ones”.

Yes, fusion does produce some radioactivity

Moving on, I raised the issue of radioactivity in connection with operation of fusion power plants.

The first generation of fusion power plants based on the tokamak design will almost certainly employ a mixture of deuterium (D) and tritium (T) as their fuel. While deuterium is a stable isotope, tritium is radioactive. Additional radioactivity arises through the absorption of neutrons, produced in the D-T reaction, by atoms in the materials in the proximity of the fusion plasma.

Fusion power plants based on D-T fuel will use significant amounts of tritium. The walls of the vacuum chamber, as well as adjacent components and materials, will be subjected for long periods to intensive neutron bombardment. Radioactivity becomes a significant issue – albeit nothing remotely comparable to the hazards posed by the long-lived radioactive isotopes produced in fission reactors.

The first issue concerns safe operation and especially the maintenance of a D-T fusion reactor. In this context, JET is providing useful experience, especially with regard to maintenance operations that have to be carried out the radioactive environment of the reactor.

JET was designed from the very beginning for all maintenance to be done by remote control. Dr. Rimini took me to see a full-scale industrial mockup of the JET reactor vessel, where I could see one of the two 12-meter-long, remotely-operated boom systems, which are introduced through entry ports during shut-down periods. The booms are articulated in such a way that they can reach all locations inside the toroidal vacuum chamber, through snake-like motions.

Readers can see an impressive video here.

Full-scale industrial mockup of JET vacuum chamber. Photo: UK Atomic Energy Authority

I could also view operators training on these systems. Their situation is a far cry from that of traditional mechanical “hot cell” manipulators where the operator stands just outside the cell, separated by a protective window.

In the case of JET (as in future fusion plants) the operators are situated far from the reactor, working with remote robotic arms and closed-circuit video. Most remarkable, this system provides haptic feedback – operators can “feel” objects they are handling. I saw an operator practice picking up a screw and screwing it into a hole.  

Full-scale industrial mockup of JET vacuum chamber. Photo: UK Atomic Energy Authority

Near the JET building, UKAEA has a separate facility called RACE (Remote Applications in Challenging Environments) devoted to the further development of robotic systems for various applications, including fully autonomous robots.

Most of the time JET has operated with deuterium alone, producing only a very small number of fusion reactions. But JET has twice operated for extended periods with D-T fuel. A third and final “campaign” of experiments, designated DTE3, is being prepared now. It will run for seven weeks.

Fernanda Rimini told me that the focus of DTE3 is not to go for a new record in fusion reactions, but rather to develop plasma science, materials science, and “neutronics.”

Lessons for the future of fusion power

The latter field, which deals with the effect of neutrons on various materials, has enormous importance for future tokamak power plants. Firstly, exposure to a heavy flux of neutrons degrades materials in the reactor, and frequent replacement can be a major cost factor. A second important issue for future reactors is the effect of neutron bombardment on the performance of the superconducting coils.

A third major issue, as I shall discuss below, is how to deal with the radioactivity produced by the absorption of neutrons by the reactor vessel and surrounding components.

A main aim of the 36 planned DTE3 experiments is to investigate the impact of neutrons on in-vessel materials, electronic components and data acquisition systems. In addition, it is essential to ascertain the amount of radioactive tritium absorbed by the walls of the vacuum vessel, and to develop improved methods for reducing the heat load on reactor components, especially the divertors.

According to the plan, JET will be decommissioned after the completion of DTE3. This process, to be carried out under the auspices of the UKAEA , will provide many valuable lessons and experience for the future large-scale application of fusion energy, as well as data relevant to estimating the complete life-cycle cost of fusion power plants.

The entire JET facility, including the reactor system with all its components and auxiliary facilities, will have to be taken apart or demolished. The resulting material  – a significant portion of which will be radioactive – must be safely disposed of and the site cleared.

Unlike nuclear fission, the D-T fusion reaction itself produces no radioactive waste; the reaction products are the stable element helium-4 plus a neutron. Nearly all the neutrons are absorbed into materials and the remaining “free” neutrons decay within a few minutes.

The “radioactive waste” from the fusion reactor consists of reactor materials that have become radioactive as a result of neutron absorption, plus a small amount of radioactive tritium (half-life 12.4 years) which has been absorbed into reactor materials in the course of operation.

Ideally, provided certain chemical elements can be avoided in the composition of the materials from which the reactor is built, future D-T fusion power plants will produce only low-level waste, which does not necessitate permanent underground deposition.

Fortunately, there is significant leeway in the choice of materials in the design of fusion reactors. But it may well prove to be impossible or impractical to avoid at least a small amount of intermediate-level waste, which will require long-term storage. A short overview of these issues by the UK Committee on Radioactive Waste Management can be found here.

As far as low-level fusion waste is concerned, a number of options are being explored including recycling for commercial use in the nuclear industry and other areas.

A big advantage of fusion waste is that it consists of relatively few radioactive elements, whereas fission generates a large number of isotopes scattered across the periodic table. On the other hand, large-scale use of fusion power plants will generate low-level waste in very substantial amounts. The reuse of materials and sites is thus an important consideration.  

In the case of JET, which will have operated with D-T fuel only for periods in the range of several weeks, the level of radioactivity will be much smaller than in future power plants. Nevertheless, practically all steps of the on-site decommissioning will have to be carried out by remote control and robotic systems.

That includes dismantling of the reactor and all its auxiliary equipment, processing for removal of absorbed tritium (detritiation), cutting and sorting, waste treatment and transfer of radioactive and non-radioactive materials into containers for storage and transport.

In 2022 the UKAEA launched a new program called the “JET Decommissioning and Repurposing (JDR) program.” JDR is already begun to solicit industrial partners.

I should remind the reader that the spherical tokamak design, which the UK Atomic Energy Authority has cleverly adopted as the mainstay of its magnetic confinement fusion program, differs greatly from JET as well as from the giant ITER reactor under construction. (ITER is in many ways a scale-up of JET.)

Nevertheless, the knowledge, experience and technology generated by the JET project have been an essential input to the UK program. I think it is fair to say that JET has been one of the most successful fusion experiments so far.

NEXT: The spherical tokamak story

Jonathan Tennenbaum, PhD (mathematics), is a former editor of FUSION magazine and has written on a wide variety of topics in science and technology, including several books on nuclear energy.

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