India’s growing imperative to empower S Korea in Indo-Pacific

The Indo-Pacific area is currently experiencing a prominent power struggle, which is somewhat characterized by China’s efforts to lessen the influence of the United States there. Concerns about regional security, as well as worries about South Korea’s sovereignty and autonomy, have been raised by the expanding economic and military footprint of China in the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea must strengthen its security infrastructure and improve its functions due to the growing Chinese military appearance near the Korean Peninsula. The South Korean government is under more stress as a result of the growing alliance between Russia, China, and North Korea, which has forced safety measures to be strengthened.

This new alliance even puts pressure on countries with similar passions, like the US, Japan, and India, to support South Korea.

Importantly, Beijing has begun to use the web of economic interdependence that China has created as South Korea’s main trading partner for its strategic goals. The ability of South Korea to combat China’s growing confidence in the Korean Peninsula is constrained by its prominent reliance on Chinese markets.

India’s proper essential to equip South Korea has gained significant fame in this dynamic geopolitical environment of the Korean Peninsula and the wider Indo-Pacific area.

This critical is brought on by the region’s rapidly shifting power dynamics, which are accentuated by Chinese dominance and pose serious threats to regional security and the sovereignty of not only South Korea but also many other smaller countries in the area.

Without endangering its own objectives, India never afford to ignore this transfer of power. India is extremely being compelled to play a crucial role in bolstering South Korea’s endurance due to its significant client status in the area of regional peace and security.

India’s growing effect in Korea

India has become a significant and influential player in the development of peace and stability in East Asia in recent years. Given its unique vantage point and ability to have a significant impact on the balance of power within the Korean Peninsula, India’s role in bolstering the political position of South Korea assumes significant significance.

India’s expanding presence in the area and its ability to implement a comprehensive and varied approach encompassing economic, cultural, military, diplomatic, and tactical dimensions serve to emphasize this significance.

It is crucial to understand that the preservation of peace and stability within the larger Indian Ocean place is inextricably linked to the stability of the Korean Peninsula. Any noticeable change in the power dynamics on the Korean Peninsula did unavoidably affect the larger Indo-Pacific area and its overall balance of power.

India is under increasing pressure to develop an all-encompassing economic and security strategy given that China primarily uses a combination of military and economic tools to enhance its corporate objectives. In order to maintain the status quo on the Korean Peninsula, this approach aims to fully leverage South Korea’s economic, military, social, and diplomatic ties to China.

Financial hedging

The urgent need is to lessen South Korea’s significant emphasis on the Chinese market for its goods given the proper use of trade and investment by China as tools of policy. In response, India is compelled to implement targeted import incentives geared toward the promotion of Vietnamese goods, with a focus on lessening South Korea’s reliance on Chinese markets for particular goods.

These actions are intended to support the foreign policy stance of the current Seoul authority.

Significantly, North Korean commercial enterprises find themselves seriously entangled in the importation of essential high-tech organic materials from China, which limits South Korea’s ability to make decisions about its foreign and security policies on its own.

India & nbsp must address this issue as a crucial part of its comprehensive economic strategy for South Korea’s empowerment. Growth of sources for vital organic materials and technologies represents a crucial step in preserving South Korea’s protection and independence.

A growing number of North Korean firms are thinking about moving away from the Chinese island due to a variety of geopolitical and economic factors. However, the high cost of such evictions presents a significant challenge for some.

India should extend incentives and concessions as part of its developing monetary strategy to make it easier for Asian businesses to move from their well-established manufacturing hubs in mainland China to alternate locations in Southeast Asia and India.

Korean businesses may be motivated to think about moving to India if the financial difficulties brought on by these relocations are properly addressed, possibly through the implementation of tailored packages.

India is relevant because of the obvious slowdown in South Korea’s economic growth, which has serious economic and geopolitical ramifications that affect regional security.

It is India’s responsibility to considerably increase its monetary assistance to Korea through a wide range of channels in order to revitalize and stabilize the North Korean economy. As a result, it is crucial for the American government to implement an incentive plan that is specifically tailored to the interests of American businesses.

With the specific aim of promoting investments in North Korean businesses, this system should include both technical expertise and financial assistance. Stabilizing the Vietnamese economy is the initiative’s main goal, which also helps to advance local harmony, stability, and security.

government support

India must pay close attention to enhancing South Korea’s military capabilities in addition to strengthening its financial resilience, a task that is being accentuated by the growing defense prowess of China.

There is currently a pervasive misconception in American legislation circles that the US and South Korea’s strong military alliance eliminates the need for additional contributions. This perception, however, belies a more nuanced reality, where the United States is constrained by specific restrictions in its ability to give South Korea complete support.

In light of this historical context, India has a responsibility to strengthen its military ties with South Korea, highlighting its increased dedication to joint naval exercises, intelligence-sharing mechanisms, and the exchange of cutting-edge protection technologies. Like joint efforts may significantly improve South Korea’s protection capabilities and readiness.

Given India’s reputation as a country known for its expanding indigenous defense capabilities, the idea of transferring developed defense technology to South Korea merits careful consideration, especially in areas where Korea currently has relative shortages, such as long-range missile systems, marine warfare technologies, electronic warfare capability, and space warfare technology.

Maritime assistance

Local peace and stability are being seriously threatened by China’s increasing naval hostility in the area, particularly the South China Sea and its surrounding regions. Given that the majority of its business passes through the sea lanes in this region, Korea has a sizable play in the free and open Indo-Pacific region.

It is essential for India to give Korea the tools it needs to resist Chinese naval aggression and influence because Korea is extremely susceptible to Chinese pressure and possible blackmail in this area.

The two nations are now working together in a constructive way. India needs to do more to help Korea, though, given the extent of Taiwanese confidence. The peace and current situation in this region are essential to Korea’s financial stability, so in the coming weeks, the Taiwanese political and military leadership may be tempted to use this area to put pressure on Korea.

South Korea has recently been looking to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean. India may assist these initiatives, especially those involving the presence of the North Korean navy, which can help India balance China in the Bay of Bengal and the surrounding areas.

Through a variety of channels, India needs to support the South Vietnamese Navy in the Indian Ocean more actively, promoting participation and maritime security. India may improve combined naval exercises in the Indian Ocean with the North Korean Navy, giving them valuable exposure and practice. These exercises may encourage cooperation, information sharing, and fostering trust between the two navies.

India’s expertise in carrying out anti-piracy activities in the Indian Ocean may be useful for protecting South Korean shipping lanes and ensuring the security of sea roads used by Korea for business.

To improve their abilities and knowledge in fields like anti-submarine warfare, coastal surveillance, and search and rescue operations, India should expand training programs for North Korean marine personnel.

Closer ties can be fostered by South Korean naval vessels making more frequent interface visits to American ports. Discussions about marine protection and the potential for mutual marine operations in the event of emergencies on the Korean Peninsula and nearby areas could be included in these visits, which may increase in frequency.

In order to exchange marine intelligence and provide real-time information on sea conditions, probable threats, and security situations, the two nations should strengthen their mechanisms.

Support for cyber security and cross war

China is increasingly using digital and hybrid warfare as tools to increase its regional effect. India must therefore concentrate on enhancing Korea’s strategic capabilities in the areas of security and cross warfare.

India and South Korea should work together on security and techniques to counter non-traditional threats given China’s expertise in computer war and cross tactics. This partnership may aid in defending both countries from China’s destructive actions.

In order to maintain regional balance and counter China’s forceful habits, India and South Korea should simultaneously develop and carry out initiatives in the Indo-Pacific region.

Interpersonal influence

South Korea is now dealing with a wide range of complex local social issues, including demographic aging, mental health problems, and declining birth rates. These inner conflicts not only weaken South Korea’s social structure but also limit its ability to successfully manage the physical difficulties brought on by the continuous energy interactions between the United States and China.

India had not ignore the inside schisms and difficulties afflicting South Korea in its power as a key stakeholder committed to the survival of local peace and stability. India has the capacity to offer priceless insights and assistance mechanisms aimed at overcoming these internal challenges because it is endowed with a politically different environment and an abundance of varied experiences.

It is crucial to emphasize how South Korea’s capacity to take on a more forceful role in creating an entirely new, rules-based security framework within the region is essential to the resolution of these home issues.

As a result, India should pay close attention to bolstering South Korea’s inside social stability as part of its overall effort to empower the country.

improving Korea’s sweet energy

The expansion of South Korea’s soft energy represents a circle in which India may pay particular attention outside of the realms of economic, cultural, and military impact.

Through social exchanges, informative initiatives, and tourism, South Korea’s soft power is being developed, which has the potential to strengthen ties between the country and its neighbors and support India’d regional diplomatic efforts.

India is in a good position to support South Korea’s effective participation in international forums like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the United Nations, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. With such assistance, South Korea’s position within the region could be considerably improved, making it a significant participant in the emerging rule-based world order.

In order to counter China’s autocratic influence, India may join forces with South Korea in promoting democratic values and human rights in the area.

India also has the ability to intensify efforts to support Seoul’s initiatives to increase North Korean effect in the area. This includes supporting Korea’s initiatives for talks and negotiations with countries in Southeast Asia and Africa as well as the development of political ties to help the area establish a rules-based order.

In this situation, joint initiatives between India, South Korea, Japan, and the United States may become crucial tools for achieving local security and advancing a common set of political principles.

Conclusion

American policymakers must sincerely understand the gravity of the changing condition taking place on the Korean Peninsula and acknowledge that South Korea’s response to internal and external stresses will have a profound impact on every aspect of local life in the area.

A prolonged and comprehensive commitment that combines various facets, including financial, social, military, political, and strategic dimensions, is required to empower South Korea. India is tasked with the complex tracking of the political landscape while being aware of its own interests and working together with other regional countries to strengthen local stability and security.

India must demonstrate a thorough understanding of the complex dynamics underpinning the Korean economy and society in the wake of President Yoon & nbsp, Suk Yeol’s advocacy for an active and influential role for South Korea within the global spheres of geopolitics and economics, with an emphasis on the associated security implications.

Strategically important goals include the upkeep of the status quo within the Korean Peninsula and the protection of a healthy energy balance.

India’s growing economic and security cooperation with South Korea serves as an example for other countries dealing with similar safety conundrums. As a result, the proper paradigm of India may take into account factors related to economic, cultural, and secure facets, with the ultimate goal of bringing about North Korean empowerment.

India and South Korea are celebrating the gold anniversary of their diplomatic ties, so now is the perfect time for India to come up with a fresh, all-inclusive plan that strengthens its relationships with the country and the larger regional community.

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Fusion Diary: the spherical tokamak story

This is the third installment in Asia Times’ Science Editor Jonathan Tennenbaum’s series “Fusion Diary.” For an introduction to the series, readers are encouraged to start with “US abandoning its leadership in fusion energy,” by Matthew Moynihan and Alfred B Bortz. Then read part 1 of the series here and part 2 here.

In its national program to build a prototype fusion power plant, Britain has decided upon a reactor type that differs radically from the conventional tokamak design, exemplified by JET and giant ITER. Instead, the UK is placing its main bet on the so-called spherical tokamak.

In the spherical tokamak, the fat central column of a conventional tokamak is replaced by a narrow post, giving the vacuum chamber a roughly spherical form rather than the conventional doughnut-like shape. The 100-150 million-degree plasma inside behaves differently and there are big differences in the technical design of the reactor.

Why is the UK going against the mainstream in the fusion race? This has a fascinating history.

Like many of the alternative concepts in magnetic confinement fusion, the spherical tokamak was born in a US national lab. In the period 1982-87, fusion researchers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) hypothesized that a tokamak with a compact spherical form would be significantly more efficient, in terms of its ability to confine the hot plasma, than a conventional tokamak.

Let me explain briefly what the problem is.

As with an ordinary gas in a container, when we heat a plasma to ever higher temperatures, the pressure goes up. As one might imagine, even at the low densities employed in tokamaks, a 100 million-degree plasma will have a very strong tendency to expand.

The role of “container” is played in a tokamak by powerful magnetic fields that counteract the pressure exerted by the hot plasma, confining the plasma to the interior of the reactor chamber and keeping it away from the chamber walls.

How does this work? The particles constituting the plasma – rapidly moving electrons and ions – are electrically charged. According to the laws of electromagnetism, charged particles moving in a magnetic field will tend to spiral around the field lines and are thereby trapped by them to a greater or lesser extent. (Here is an elementary YouTube introduction to these concepts.)

Hot plasma in the spherical tokamak ST-40. Photo: Tokamak Energy

It turns out that to produce the field strengths needed to confine a plasma at 100-150 million degrees, the magnetic coils in a tokamak reactor must be run with electric currents of millions of amperes. This requirement imposes extremely severe engineering constraints on the reactor, and is a major factor in determining its cost and economic viability.

Needless to say, it would be a great advantage to be able to reduce the strength of the magnetic field needed to confine a plasma at a given density and temperature – or, alternatively, to increase the density and/or temperature of the plasma that can be confined using a given magnetic field strength.

In fusion science, the efficiency of confinement is commonly expressed in terms of a parameter called the “plasma beta,” which is technically proportional to the ratio of the plasma pressure to the square of the magnetic field strength. Reactor designers endeavor to make beta as large as possible.

Not surprisingly, the value of beta depends on a great many factors. Unlike the molecules of a gas in a bottle, where the molecules move around and bump into each other in random fashion, the ions and electrons constituting the plasma whizz around the toroidal vacuum chamber in a complicated pattern of spiraling trajectories.

It should thus be no surprise to find that the shape of the vacuum chamber has a major impact on the possible patterns of particle motions, and thereby also on the ability of the reactor to confine the plasma.

Analyzing these relationships is a very difficult physics problem.

Comparison between spherical and toroidal geometries. Note: In the diagram here the aspect ratio of the toroid is greatly exaggerated compared with actual tokamaks. Image: T M Wilks, DIII-D National Fusion Facility

In 1982-1987 the plasma physicists Alan Sykes, Martin Peng and Dennis Strickler, working at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, calculated that higher values of beta could be reached by greatly reducing the so-called aspect ratio of the vacuum chamber – the lengthwise radius of the toroid divided by its cross-section radius. Their studies also indicated that the plasma would behave better if the cross-section of the chamber were made oval – or D-shaped.

The result is an overall spherical – or apple-like – shape with a narrow column in the center.

Why would the spherical shape work better?

The analysis is complicated. Asked for a simple intuitive explanation, a physicist I spoke with told me that in the spherical tokamak, the magnetic field lines wind tightly around the narrow central column, holding particles there for relatively long periods before their spiral trajectories carry them toward the outside region and quickly back in again. The longer sojourn of the particles in the inner region, as opposed to the outer region, adds up to a more effective confinement of the plasma.

Creating a tokamak with a spherical shape poses major challenges, however. In a conventional tokamak, the bulk of the external magnetic field is provided by identical ring-shaped vertical coils equally spaced around the vacuum chamber.

JET has 32 of them. These flat coils all bunch together in the middle of the device, taking up a lot of room. In addition there must be space in the middle for the central solenoid coil, needed to drive current through the plasma.  

In 1984, Martin Peng came up with an elegant solution: to replace the closed-ring magnets with half-rings sharing a single conducting rod in the middle of the reactor. (As I understand, in later practice the toroidal coils are closed but wedge-shaped along the central axis, fitting together to form a narrow column.)

Left: Original cutaway diagram of Spherical Torus Experiment (STX), proposed in 1986 but never built. Image: Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Right: Cutaway diagram of the ST-40 spherical tokamak, a unit built and operated by the Tokamak Energy company today Image: Tokamak Energy

Martin Peng proposed building a first spherical tokamak, christened STX, at Oak Ridge. The cost of this small first device was estimated at about US$6 million. Coming at a time when the US fusion budget was undergoing drastic cuts, the STX proposal was rejected. The spherical tokamak idea subsequently “emigrated” to Culham, England, with Peng accompanying it.

Peng had met with significant resistance from plasma physicists who thought his idea was crazy. But the directors at Culham gave Peng the green light to build a small spherical tokamak using mainly spare components left over from other experiments. The whole project cost only about $125 000, a minuscule amount even for a small tokamak experiment.

Left: Original study led by Martin Peng on the potential advantages of a spherical tokamak (1985).  Right: The START reactor at Culham with its leading scientists (1991). Images: Tokamak Energy

In 1991, after two years of construction time, the world’s first spherical tokamak, START (“Small Tight Aspect Ratio Tokamak”), began operation. The whole device was only about two meters across.

START’s performance exceeded all expectations. START achieved a beta value more than three times that of any conventional tokamak. It also showed superior plasma stability and other favorable features. Laboratories around the world rushed to build small spherical tokamaks, including even countries not well-known for their fusion research, including Australia, Brazil, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Pakistan and Turkey.

START operated until 1998. In the meantime, the revolutionary results with START immediately suggested building a larger spherical tokamak with higher fields, higher plasma currents, more powerful heating systems and other features providing for a broader scope of investigations.

This became the Multi-Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) at Culham. The volume of the MAST plasma was three times larger than in START, but three times smaller than in the JET reactor.

MAST operated from 1999 until 2013. It confirmed the results of START, demonstrating a number of additional advantages of the spherical tokamak and providing a large store of knowledge and experience for further devices.

In the same year as MAST, a similar reactor went into operation in the United States, called the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX). Situated at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, NSTX is still operating successfully today. It has further confirmed the high beta and other advantages of the spherical tokamak.

Left:  CAD drawing of US National Spherical Torus Experiment. Image: NSTX. Right: NSTX in operation at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. Image: Wikipedia / PPL

In view of the successes of the spherical tokamak experiments, it was decided in Culham to upgrade MAST into a device with greater heating power, plasma current, magnetic field and pulse length. Most urgently, however, MAST-U was to provide a first-ever platform to test a revolutionary design for the so-called divertor, called the “Super-X divertor.”

MAST-U spherical tokamak reactor at the Culham Centre for Fusion Energy. Photo: UK Atomic Energy Agency

As I explained in an earlier article, the divertor is a key component in any tokamak reactor; it provides the means to remove, continuously, impurities from the plasma, as well as helium ions produced by the fusion reactions (frequently referred to as the fusion “ash”). At the same time, the divertor removes a substantial portion of the heat energy generated by the fusion process.

The divertor is a slot-like structure, installed at the lower (and sometimes also the upper) extreme of the chamber. The magnetic field is configured in such a way, that a thin stream of plasma is effectively “scrapped off” the core of the plasma and directed at a set of metal “target” plates, where the plasma is neutralized into a gas and pumped away. At the same time, fresh DT fuel can be injected into the reactor, renewing the plasma.     

The main problem with divertors comes from the fact, that the target plates are in direct contact with the 100-150 million-degree plasma, and exposed to intense bombardment by neutrons and other “hot” particles.

The divertor plates must withstand an overall energy flux 10 or more times larger than the heat shields of space capsules during reentry into the atmosphere. While reentry lasts only minutes, the divertor plates must last for periods of at least months, preferably years, before being replaced.

The lifetimes of the divertors will be a significant factor in the economic viability of future tokamak fusion power plants.

The Super-X divertor design promises to drastically reduce the heat and power load on the divertor plates. With the help of additional magnetic coils, Super-X bends the pathway taken by the plasma, making it travel a longer distance before striking the target plates. This gives the plasma the chance to cool down significantly before contact occurs. There are other important differences, relative to conventional designs, that I cannot go into here.

During my August visit to Culham, I had the opportunity to speak with a young scientist working on the design of Super-X divertors for MAST-U. I learned that there are many variations on the Super-X concept, involving different configurations of the plates, magnetic coils and field strengths. Finding the optimal ones is a major task. MAST-U was explicitly designed for trying out various divertor designs.  

Like all the other reactor designs being pursued in the fusion race, the spherical tokamak design has its advantages and disadvantages. One cannot be sure at this point which one will ultimately come out ahead.

Britain is currently betting on the spherical tokamak, having chosen this design as the basis for the UK national program to build the first electricity-producing fusion reactor. Hence the name Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production (STEP).

In his interview with me — to be published as the next installment of this series – STEP Director Paul Methven emphasizes that Britain will continue to participate in the ITER project, a giant tokamak of the conventional type, while also supporting a variety of alternative approaches to both magnetic and inertial confinement fusion. I shall report about one of the most exciting of those alternatives later in this series.     

Regardless of who wins the current fusion race, I am convinced that in the future fusion energy will take many forms and will involve a variety of reactor types, even more so than has been the case for fission.

NEXT: An Apollo program for fusion

Jonathan Tennenbaum, PhD (mathematics), is a former editor of FUSION magazine and has written on a wide variety of topics in science and technology, including several books on nuclear energy.

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China speeding into the low-cost drone swarm lead

China has created a low-cost aircraft jet engine that could open the door for the creation of cutting-edge, cost-effective drones, laying the groundwork for future drone warfare techniques around the world.

A lead scientist on the project reported that a new generation of high-speed, long-lasting drones powered by inexpensive jet engines has entered military service in China, according to South China Morning Post( SCMP ).

According to SCMP, the novel Chinese drones are unique from other types due to the low cost of their power supply, and the technology may spark a drone hands culture as the US starts its program to increase the production of the weapon.

According to SCMP, the People’s Liberation Army( PLA) will be able to purchase high-performance jet aircraft vehicles for less than a fifth of the global cost thanks to the technological advancement. According to the review, the task was presented on October 19 by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

At the occasion, engineering thermal physicist Zhu Junqiang asserted that the PLA has been quick to adopt the new engine, primarily because it uses nearly a third less energy than the existing two-shaft vehicles in use and because having 70 % fewer mechanical parts will result in significantly lower maintenance costs.

The FH – 97 helicopter from China. Chinese state media photograph

A high-speed military aircraft powered by a jet motor, in contrast, is typically regarded as an asset of great value, but most military armaments only stockpile them in small quantities due to high costs. For instance, the Northrop Grumman-built RQ – 4 Global Hawk helicopter is propelled by a great US$ 4 million per unit AE3007 turbofan engine from Rolls-Royce.

According to SCMP, 42 Global Hawks, each costing about$ 130 million, are now out of reach for the US, despite having a larger military expenditure than all other nations put together.

Coming conflicts will probably turn into satellite wars of attrition, with the Ukraine War serving as an example of the possibility of new-age warfare. Marc DeVore claims that the continuing conflict has demonstrated the benefits of lower costs and expendability in drone warfare in an article published in the peer-reviewed Defense and Security Analysis book in April 2023.

DeVore notes that during the first nine months of the war, Russia lost at least 148 washable drones and Ukraine 40, pointing out that professional factors, such as the vulnerability of aircraft information links, are to blame for the great helicopter losses. According to him, the weapons are susceptible to short-range air defenses because they fly at lower and moderate altitudes.

He points out that the use of drones for operations in heavily fortified areas by both Russia and Ukraine has prompted a move toward more affordable and disposable programs. For example, he points out that the Russian Forpost and Orion, as well as Ukraine’s Turkey-made Bayraktar TB – 2, are, both, their most advanced robots.

However, he claims that because of their vulnerability, they are less effective against jamming and low-altitude heat security assets. He claims that as a result, both nations have increasingly turned to very inexpensive or disposable robots because it is more expensive to shoot down these one-way assault weapons than they are worth.

The US has started programs to mass-produce drones for a high-tech war of attrition because it is aware of this field session.

The US Replicator system, which aims to field a sizable number of AI-driven automatic drones to combat China’s expanding military capabilities, was covered by Asia Times in September. With an intense 18 to 24 fortnight deployment timeline, the system aims to quickly improve the pitching of attritable automatic platforms in the air, land, and sea domains.

The project will be managed by the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit, which will also collaborate with non-traditional technology firms and the security industry. Great networking capabilities, grid networks, and advances in artificial intelligence will enable intelligent, decentralized functioning and enable quicker deployment closer to the military edge.

Additionally, in February 2023, Asia Times published a report on the US” Autonomous Multi-Dotacle Adaptive Swarms – of-Swaths”( AMASS ) project, which aims to create self-sufficient drone hordes that can be launched from the sea, the air, and the land to overpower enemy air defenses.

The goal of the project is to improve the ability to launch and control tens of thousands of autonomous drones, which will be used in concert to destroy an enemy’s defenses such as missile launchers, artillery pieces, and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance( ISR ) platforms.

The AMASS system is anticipated to concentrate primarily on stopping or defeating a Taiwanese conquest of Taiwan. In highly contested environments, the system investigates using” swarm-of-shwarms” to carry out military operations with inexpensive drones equipped with a variety of sensors and dynamic and non-kinetic cells.

However, the US still has a lot of trouble increasing its low-cost helicopter production. According to a CNBC statement from last month, the cost of making smaller consumer drones like helicopters in the US increases because work and material costs are higher than in China.

According to CNBC, several American drone companies left the market in 2016 and 2017 as a result of China’s out-of-competition or poor business decisions. It also mentions how difficult it is to create robots using only US-sourced components because the US lacks the companies necessary to produce such large-scale, reusable military aircraft. According to the report, it also lacks the safe supply chains required to produce delicate parts.

Potential conflicts will be waged using aircraft swarms. Credit: C4ISRNET

China, on the other hand, is in a better position to increase low-cost aircraft creation. The DJI company, based in Shenzhen, now controls 70 % of the global consumer drone market and is the world’s largest exporter of military defense robots.

China’s Sunflower 200 lounging weapons, which is allegedly modeled after the Iranian Shahed – 136, a tool Russia is using in the ongoing Ukraine war but has significantly modified to fit the local battlefield conditions, was covered by Asia Times in September. The helicopter was displayed in Moscow during the Army – 2023 protection show.

Despite having the ability to mass-produce the Sunflower 200 and improved versions for Russia, China has adopted a optimistic stance in its support of Moscow’s war work, balancing its interests to maintain an outcome that is in their best interests while avoiding American sanctions.

Although it is unlikely that the Sunflower – 200 may soon join Russia’s army, China has sent dual-use drones to the country because it knows they will be used for military operations.

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Import substitution subverting Asia’s next economic miracles

The increase of security-driven monetary policy in commercial nations gives rise to antediluvian inward-looking policy thinking, infecting the formulation of development strategies at a crucial juncture in nations like Indonesia, India, and nbsp, which are poised to make significant developmental advancements.

The world’s monetary policy environment is changing as a result of politics. The transfer of business plan in developed nations has been fueled by security-based logic and a second-best approach to the energy transition without costing carbon in the context of today’s proper competition and conflict. & nbsp,

An & nbsp, an explosion of trade interventions, industrial policies, and subsidies, has exacerbated the threat to the global economy posed by the widespread and a derogation of international trade laws.

In this policy environment, where self-sufficiency and import-supply strategies are gaining strong novel support, how may developing economies like India and Indonesia navigate it?

The only major shift from an economic backwardness to an advanced economy status in modern times has occurred in South Eastern economies. Therefore, it is wise to comprehend the lessons learned from the South Eastern development miracle, which are still applicable today. & nbsp,

On September 6, 2018, staff at the BMW Group Production Network 2 PT Gaya Motor factory in Jakarta, Indonesia, assembled new MINI Countryman pieces. Dasril Roszandi, NurPhoto, and Asia Times Files

In order to lay the groundwork for broad-based business growth, developing economies, constrained by their financial capacity, should remember the waste and futility of previous commercial policies that chose industry champions rather than producing people goods.

Based on the traditional experiences of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Southeast Asia, and China, powerful South Asian growth was based on trade-oriented growth( anchored in the disciplines of participation in international markets) and deeper integration into the global economy rather than flee from it or reliance on import substitution. & nbsp,

The rapid trade growth experienced by these economies was & nbsp, supply-driven, and was based on the growth of market share in long-established industries rather than the expansion of trade in high-growth, new sectors of the global economy. With a departure from state role in business, government investments were focused on social and economic facilities in public goods like roads and schools.

Politicians now appear to be living in a unique era. Modernization appears to have peaked, the global economy is fragmenting, and a policy pathology that favors self-sufficiency and import – substituting industrial policy is sweeping the world. Home events and political circumstances are posing the threat of stagnant growth upon established professional economy.

The cliche that emerging economies should turn to internal import substitution due to a less positive outlook on world market growth does not fit with Asia’s successful industrial growth.

Advancement in an international economic framework is about putting a lot of labor into more and more effective jobs, increasing productivity, and increasing national incomes.

So, pro-development strategies are those that encourage import specialization in labor-intensive products, attracting large amounts of work into globally competitive manufacturing, and higher productivity employment. & nbsp,

Powerful analytical benefit drives a more technology-intensive export trade framework over time as capital accumulates. A distribution of income that frequently favors labour has been the beneficial corollary of export-oriented development techniques.

Countries have emphasized the production of high-tech, capital-intensive goods from the beginning as a result of the new trend toward self-reliance and security.

Concentrating on these industries necessitates skilled labor, which is in short supply compared to an abundance of poor labor and cheap government expenditures, all of which come at the expense of supplying crucial government infrastructure. If a nation ages before it becomes wealthy, failing to make careers runs the risk of escalating injustice and stretching public resources in an untenable way.

Investing workers in sectors that may take advantage of its abundance and create global competitiveness is the key to effective trade-oriented growth. As comparative advantages change, this enables nations to take over other people’s business stocks. This is a method supported by an open market policy framework based on the principles of non-discrimination.

The relative advantage logic also holds true even during a slow growth period. By limiting access to low-cost and high-quality capital and industrial inputs, import-supply policies undermine this transition and keep businesses from becoming globally competitive.

The history of the South Asian financial miracle was undoubtedly messier and more intricate than the narrative that highlights its key elements has occasionally suggested. The policy approaches that led to victory in Japan, Northeast Asia, Singapore, China, and Southeast Asia were developed in various administrative and political contexts and each had a unique national figure. Special national paths and patterns of development have been shaped throughout the region by policy quirks, technological context, regional size, and location.

However, some elements persisted throughout the South Eastern experience. Rapid growth was largely facilitated by allowing access to inputs that made it easier for vast local labor to be absorbed into productive manufacturing employment. This required opening up to foreign market competition and accepting international investment. & nbsp,

Effective business plan across the place was typified by local reforms to support flexibility, increased state investment mobilization in education, health, transportation, communications networks, and friendly business infrastructure, as well as reduced state shares in financial enterprise and the allocation of capital.

On September 10, 2020, workers at a Haier shop in Wuhan, Hubei province in northern China, are working on an atmosphere condition production line. Asia Times Files, AFP, and Stringer

These ideas and experiences applied to China as well. At level, it has been a key component of it.

Two of Asia’s most promising candidates for revolutionary industrialization in the coming decades— India and Indonesia — have reached a turning point in their respective development paths. They are in a statistical sweet spot due to their young populations and new strong economic performance.

However, both nations run the risk of falling victim to the influence of professional policy 2.0. They would be better positioned to both realize their financial potential and avoid the risk of homeless growth that both currently face if their development strategies were tuned to the principles derived from the West Eastern experience.

At the Crawford School of Public Policy at ANU, Peter Drysdale serves as the head and Rojan Joshi as a research associate at the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

This andnbsp, post, and was originally published by East Asia Forum and are being reprinted with permission from Creative Commons.

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Gaza tragedy a reminder that Hindutva is a major barrier to IMEC

A new economic hall was inaugurated on the outside of the 18th G20 Summit, which was held in New Delhi under the presidency of India. It is a significant trade and investment project known as the India, Middle East, and Europe Economic Corridor( IMEC ).

It departs from India and travels through Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the Persian Gulf of the Middle East before arriving in Europe via Greek slots.

The Middle East and Europe will be connected by broad territory and maritime transportation thanks to two distinct corridors, according to IMEC. Although many of its specifics are still pending and it is currently only in the form of a memorandum of understanding( MoU ), its estimated cost is US$ 20 billion.

The future of IMEC, but, appears uncertain now that a human tragedy is taking place in Gaza.

India’s preference for Israel

In stark contrast to the history, India this moment sided with Israel and abandoned its previous stance on Palestine. Prime Minister Narendra Modi decided to support Israel shortly after the Palestine-Israel issue erupted, tweeting,” India stands with Israel.”

Later, he spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu, his Israeli rival, and denounced all forms of terrorism. As the prime minister opted to support Israel firmly rather than align his declaration with the two-state solution, this signaled a distinct change from India’s prior stance on the Palestine-Israel discord.

Additionally, he did not denounce Israel’s continued murder of Palestinians. He also did not criticize Israel for the significant civilian casualties in a Arab hospital.

Arindam Bagchi, a spokesperson for the Indian Ministry of External Affairs( MEA ), reaffirmed India’s previous stance, saying that it” believes in its long-standing support in the establishment of an independent, sovereign, and viable state of Palestine.”

The paradox through which India is interacting with the Middle East can be seen in the statements and quick response of the country’s prime minister and the Foreign Affairs Ministry. Pragmatically, India’s growing economic and geopolitical dependence on Israel can be used to explain this change in international policy. That nation is an important trading partner of India, receiving$ 3.94 billion in US imports each year.

turbulence in the Middle East

Without harmony, there can be no financial growth. The IMEC and its successful application in a disturbed area like the Middle East are examples of this. As a result, the continued human tragedy in Gaza has an impact on bilateral trade between Israel and India in addition to casting doubt on the IMEC’s leads.

Anjana Pasricha, a reporter for Voice of America in New Delhi, described the Israel-Hamas conflict as” reality check” and” wake-up call” for IMEC.

Michael Kugleman, the chairman of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, emphasized that IMEC was not feasible in the unstable Middle East. He said that IMEC” is hardly just a matter of funding challenges, but also of balance and political cooperation.” & nbsp,

Again, it is clear that IMEC cannot be implemented in the Middle East as long as India just supports one position.

A large portion of this financial action was dependent on the long-running normalization of Israel and Saudi Arabia. The US-led Abraham Accord 2.0 is also in disarray following the Israel-Hamas issue.

Manoj Joshi made a remark about this at the Observer Research Foundation, saying that IMEC was started under the assumption that the Middle East was at serenity.

Other than that, IMEC stokes long-standing competitions between Ankara and Athens by avoiding Turkey. India is undoubtedly treading a fine line as it comes across the region’s long-standing conflicts.

Is India overcome the obstacles preventing IMEC and deliver on its financial initiatives in the Middle East? is a pertinent question that is related to this.

Hindutva, a challenge or an answer?

The political beliefs of a state contains the answer to this question. Since the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party( BJP ) came to power, Hindutva, its religio-political philosophy, has infused every endeavor in India, whether it be national or international.

The Modi-led Indian government describes itself as a” spiritual politics.” It claims to be a supporter of the Global South. It aims to promote changes in the world order based on naturalism and democracy while adhering to the old religious origins.

In the current Gaza tragedy, such noble claims should ideally be met with unambiguous support for mankind. Funnily, while, India refused to support a UN resolution calling for an end to the war in Gaza for the first time in its history.

The Modi administration was urged to assist the call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza after American opposition parties strongly criticized this action. They voiced their disapproval by expressing their” shocked” and” ashamed” at this sudden change in Indian foreign policy.

Beyond the rhetorical criticism, the Communist Party of India issued a joint statement in support of the UN’s call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. These actions taken by the opposition parties in India reveal how the political voices feel about India’s stance on the Israel-Hamas issue.

Pragmatically, India is not going to position itself as a reliable responsible customer in the international system if it does not pursue an equal foreign policy. If it wants to establish its status as a state with great humanitarian and democratic values, it takes on specific importance.

Nevertheless, New Delhi’s foreign forays into Hindutva are casting serious doubt on both the excellent and practical principles of its foreign policy. India doesn’t appear to be doing its talking.

The American government decided to make” One Earth, One Family, and One Future” the style of its G20 president at the same conference where IMEC was established. Under Modi’s command, the BJP used the presidency to increase the political stakes in its favor rather than bringing this inclusive and global vision to fruition.

The Ukraine matter was put on hold at the same G20 Summit, which also widened tensions between India and Canada over the Sikh separatist movement and eventually led to an extraordinary diplomatic dispute between the two countries. India also used the G20 president to bring about peace in the disputed places.

In truth, India denies the Kashmiris living under its purview their basic right to self-determination, which is why it did not support the call for a cease-fire in Gaza under an anti-Muslim ruling party in charge of affairs.

The biggest obstacle to the effective implementation of IMEC is the anti-Muslim environment that the BJP, led by Narendara Modi, is fostering in India and projecting worldwide. The alarming rise in anti-Muslim fury and offences in India under the BJP has also been noted by the independent research organization Hindu Watch.

Hindutva-led forays may initially serve the BJP’s political agenda, but in the long run, they cannot guarantee the peace and stability that are essential for the success of financial initiatives, not to mention IMEC.

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Myanmar junta artillery attack fatally lands on China

One Chinese citizen was killed and several others injured yesterday (November 4) when an artillery shell fired by the Myanmar military apparently missed its intended target and landed on the Chinese side of the China-Myanmar border.

The strike had targeted the city of Laiza on the Myanmar side of the border, home to the headquarters of the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), one of the largest and most powerful of dozens of ethnic resistance organizations (EROs) fighting against the State Administration Council (SAC) military junta that seized power from a democratically elected government in a February 2021 coup. 

According to a Laiza-based Kachin activist known as David who closely monitors the conflict in the area, the artillery shell that landed on the Chinese side hit a house and injured three people, including at least one fatal injury.  He told Asia Times that three shells landed on a nearby mountain this morning (November 5) but that the area wasn’t inhabited and there was no harm to any individuals or property.

The risk of more casualties on the Chinese side has been mitigated as residents have evacuated from the border town of Naban, which is connected to Laiza as part of the same urban area. However, residents of Laiza on the Myanmar side don’t have many feasible escape routes and have been seeking shelter outside of their homes, including in trenches along the river separating the two countries.

A prominent blogger following the conflict named Nicholas cited “local news” sources as saying there were a total of four Chinese national casualties resulting from the errant artillery attack, even though the KIA has issued an order to local media not to release news about the recent attacks.

Nicholas’ widely followed, pro-Spring Revolution Twitter feed posted pictures of smoke rising from the China side of the barbed-wire fence that China constructed along large sections of the China-Myanmar border several years ago.

A high-level KIA official told Asia Times after yesterday’s bombing on the condition of anonymity that the attack was “approved” by China, without elaborating how he knew this was the case.

The border area where a Myanmar junta artillery strike fatally landed across the Chinese border. Image: Twitter Screengrab / @nicholas6284

At the time of publication, the Chinese government had not yet made any official statements about the Chinese citizen who was killed and the others who were harmed, which is unusual considering that China is ordinarily keen to show the world— and particularly the Chinese public—that it steadfastly protects Chinese citizens abroad and takes swift, bold countermeasures whenever Chinese citizens are harmed.

The lack of a swift statement could either mean that China is somehow hoping the information doesn’t become public or that Beijing is still formulating its response at a time when Beijing’s Myanmar policy is becoming increasingly muddled.

That apparent policy flux reflects the fast-changing nature of the conflict since the astounding success of “Operation 1027,” a massive and multi-pronged military campaign launched on October 27 by a unified group of resistance forces known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance comprised of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the Arakan Army (AA) in northern Shan state in areas near the Chinese border.  

Yesterday’s military artillery barrage on Laiza was unprecedented because the city was previously considered off-limits as a target, on the grounds that any attack on Laiza would most likely harm Chinese individuals or property on the Chinese side. As such, there has long been an understanding between the Chinese government and the SAC that Laiza itself would not be targeted, although surrounding areas have been.

That may have changed as the SAC seeks to punish the KIA for supporting the Three Brotherhood Alliance, whose members have reportedly received training, supplies and protection from the KIA.

According to Ryan Libre, a visual artist who has been living in KIA-controlled areas for 13 years and monitors the conflict closely, yesterday’s artillery barrage is part of a new campaign that the SAC launched on October 9, when the junta dropped a powerful bomb on a displaced persons camp 3 kilometers north of Laiza and less than 100 meters from China’s border.

Analysts say the camp was deliberately targeted as part of the SAC’s campaign to terrorize civilians and demoralize the anti-coup Spring Revolution. The fact that the bomb was dropped so close to the border indicates that Beijing had either tacitly approved of the new military campaign or that the SAC gambled that Beijing would accept the attack as a fait accompli.

Another interpretation of the SAC’s decision to launch a new campaign near Laiza is that the junta is now less concerned about angering China amid recently deteriorating bilateral relations. This theory holds that China is starting to realize that it bet on the wrong horse when it threw its weight behind the junta late last year and thus Beijing is now changing towards a more middle position on the conflict.

Indeed, Beijing may have recently concluded that it earlier miscalculated the strength and resolve of Myanmar’s resistance movement comprised of EROs and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) formed in response to the coup.

It’s also clear that Beijing believes the SAC is incapable of addressing the rampant cyber-scam problem in Myanmar’s border areas. These illicit operations are a collaboration between junta-appointed allied militia groups and Chinese gangs and involve luring unsuspected people including Chinese nationals to “call center” compounds with promises of good jobs, after which they are often literally enslaved and forced to scam compatriots in their home nations.

Survivors who have been rescued from these operations have said they were often forced to meet scam quotas and tortured if they didn’t reach their quotas or otherwise displeased their gangland bosses. Reports have indicated these scam centers are highly profitable but have also cost China enormously in diplomatic and reputation terms.

China may have recently concluded that the only way to address the cyber-scamming problem and other criminal activities is to tacitly support resistance forces, at least in Shan state where Beijing has a keen interest in maintaining the stability of the border areas, its investments and the parts of Shan state through which the Belt and Road Initiative-linked China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) runs.

This picture taken on January 12, 2014 shows soldiers from the Taaung National Liberation Army (TNLA), a Palaung ethnic armed group, parading as they mark the 51st anniversary of the Taaung National Resistance Day at Homain, Nansan township in Myanmar's northern Shan state. The TNLA is one of a host of armed ethnic minority groups that have long fought the country’s military for greater autonomy. Myanmar’s reformist government has signed peace deals with most major rebel groups since coming to power nearly three years ago, but conflicts continue to flare in some areas. AFP PHOTO/Ye Aung THU / AFP PHOTO / Ye Aung Thu
The TNLA is part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance that is fast changing the complexion of Myanmar’s civil war. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Ye Aung Thu

Indeed, Operation 1027’s primary targets were in northern Shan state where the CMEC enters Myanmar and subsequently winds down the country and ends at the Indian Ocean, a trade and fuel shipment route that aims to mitigate China’s risk of a US blockade at the Malacca Strait maritime chokepoint in a conflict scenario.

Earlier this year, Chinese officials began publicly admonishing the junta to crack down on cyber-scamming operations but the junta hasn’t apparently cracked down, likely because it relies on the political and financial support of militia groups that control the “special crime zones” where these cyber-scams operate.

And even if the SAC had wanted to firmly crack down on scamming operations it wouldn’t have the wherewithal to take control of these crime zones, many of which are located in far-flung and geographically isolated border regions protected by heavily-armed militia groups and Chinese gangs.

According to Libre, yesterday’s unprecedented artillery barrage on Laiza that killed and injured Chinese citizens marks the latest phase of a military campaign in the area, one that began with the bombing of an internally displaced persons (IDP) camp on October 9. That assault killed 29 people, injured 57 and destroyed the camp along with a kindergarten and a church, outraging the international community. All of the causalities were reportedly civilians, including 13 children.

The IDP camp assault on October 9 was followed by a series of airstrikes over two days near Laiza beginning on October 31, which hit the former KIA headquarters on Alen Bum mountain and a nearby village called Ja Hta, which had already been abandoned after a previous attack but was still being accessed by former villagers seeking to hunt animals and attracted by fruit still growing in the village since it was abandoned.

The KIA moved its headquarters from Alen Bum mountain to Laiza city shortly after the conflict between the Myanmar military and KIA resumed in 2011. Thereafter, a school for displaced children was constructed on the mountain and it’s now occupied by civilians and houses the KIO’s offices. However, according to Libre, it’s unclear whether civilians were moved to the mountain as a deliberate tactical measure by the KIA.

Fortify Rights, an advocacy group in the region, posted a video on its Twitter feed taken by local residents who said that air-raid sirens went off on the China side to warn people in the area on October 31.

Fortify Rights said the airstrikes that began on October 31 near Laiza may constitute war crimes and should be fully investigated, noting that “It is a war crime to target civilian and civilian objects.” Fortify Rights further said that “UN member states should urgently deny the junta access to aviation fuel and hold it accountable for its crimes.”

Those remaining in Laiza have reportedly been hunkering down in trenches along a river dividing the China-Myanmar border or taking shelter outside the city. On November 1, The Irrawaddy news outlet quoted KIA spokesperson Colonel Naw But as saying that “Laiza is no longer safe because of shelling, airstrikes and drone attacks.”

As seen in this photo, smokes arising from the other side of the border fence which China built across the entire border since 2020. Laiza is sitting across the Chinese border divided only by a small stream in between. Image and Text: Twitter Screengrab / @nicholas6284

The key question hanging over the SAC’s new campaign targeting Laiza and surrounding areas is whether China tacitly supported the attack or is at least officially turning a blind eye.

The notion that China may have given the green light for the assault is supported by the fact that people living in Naban, the town on the Chinese side of the border, had evacuated the area and the Naban market had been closed down before the junta’s attack.

Libre said the Naban market had never been closed since armed conflict between the KIA and the Myanmar military in the area resumed after years of ceasefire in 2011. Operation 1027 has been a stunning disaster for the SAC and the junta’s recent campaign against the Laiza area may be designed to punish the KIA for its role in supporting the Three Brotherhood Alliance. 

However, Operation 1027 isn’t limited to these three groups operating in Shan State. The overstretched SAC is now scrambling to defend its positions across the country as various resistance forces have recently scored victories in Kachin, Karen, Karrenni states and the Sagaing region.

It’s impossible to verify the extent to which the attacks were coordinated or launched by armed groups seeking to take advantage of the chaos in other areas. Whatever the case, it’s clear that China is still trying to devise a new policy approach to a fast-evolving conflict situation that threatens to spill over its southern border and harm its nationals on Chinese soil.

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China’s Middle East gambit upended by Israel-Hamas war

On October 30, 2023, rumors started to circulate that Israel was missing from the mapping services offered by Chinese tech firms Baidu and Alibaba, effectively indicating — or so some thought — that Beijing was supporting Hamas in the ongoing conflict.

Within days, Chinese officials started to refute that claim, pointing out that the names do look on official maps of the nation and that Hamas’ attack on October 7 had never altered the maps provided by China’s software companies.

In fact, the Chinese Foreign Ministry seized the chance to emphasize that China was no siding with either side in the conflict. Instead, Beijing asserted that it upheld the right of the Arab people under international humanitarian law as well as Israel’s right to self-defense.

Nobody should have been surprised by this claim of harmony and even-handedness. For more than ten years, it has served as the cornerstone of China’s strategic approach to the Middle East. During that time, Beijing has worked to present itself as a friend to everyone in the area and an army of none.

However, the chart incident highlights a challenge Beijing is currently facing due to the crisis. Beijing’s tactical approach to the Middle East is becoming more and more challenging to maintain as a result of the fragmentation that has taken hold over this issue, both within China and around the world.

The Israel-Hamas war, which has so far been centered on the idea of” balanced diplomacy ,” is, in my opinion, the toughest test yet for President Xi Jinping’s Middle East strategy, according to a scholar who teaches classes on China foreign policy.

Growing pro-Palestinian opinion in China and the nation’s historical sentiments in the area imply that if Xi is forced off the impartiality path, he will support the Palestinians over the Israelis.

Beijing, however, would prefer not to make that decision for smart economical and foreign policy considerations. Making this decision, in my opinion, would effectively put an end to China’s ten-year effort to establish itself as a powerful” helpful plumber” in the area— an outside force that aims to mediate peace agreements and establish an incredibly diverse regional economic and security order.

Beijing’s goals and tactics

Since around 2012, there hasn’t been any consensus in political lines that China was not the country that invested in the Middle East. Since then, China has made significant political efforts to increase its influence in the area.

Two men in suits shake hands in front of Chinese and Israeli flags.
In 2017, President Xi Jinping of China and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shake arms. Photo: The Conversation, Etienne Oliveau, and AFP via Getty

The entire corporate vision of Beijing for the Middle East is one in which China’s influence is greatly increased while the US is drastically reduced.

On the one hand, this is merely a geographical expression of the world vision as outlined in numerous Chinese foreign policy initiatives, including the Community of Common Destiny, International Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative and Global Civilization Initiative. All of these initiatives are intended, at least in part, to charm to nations in the Global South that feel extremely cut off from the US-led rules-based global order.

This perception is based on worries that China’s access to Middle Eastern oil and gas exports would be jeopardized if the United States maintained its control there.

That does not imply that Beijing wants to overthrow the United States as the region’s dominant force. Given the strength of the money and the US’s long-standing ties to some of its largest economy, that is impossible.

Instead, China’s stated strategy is to encourage regional multi-alignment, which entails encouraging unique nations to cooperate with China in areas like infrastructure and trade. By doing this, China and other players in the area become more friendly, and any incentives to join unique US-led blocs are also undermined.

Through what are referred to in Chinese government documents as” balanced diplomacy” and” positive balancing ,” Beijing aims to encourage multi-alignment.

Healthy diplomacy entails no siding with one side in a number of issues, including the Israeli-Palestinian one, and not creating any enemies. Good managing focuses on pursuing closer assistance with one regional power, such as Iran, in the hope that this will encourage other nations to do the same, like the Arab Gulf nations.

China’s victory in the Middle East

Beijing’s approach was starting to pay off before the Hamas assault on Israel on October 7.

China and Saudi Arabia formed a complete corporate alliance in 2016, and Iran and China agreed to work together for 25 years in 2020. Beijing has strengthened its economic relations with a number of other Gulf nations during that time, including Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Oman.

China has strengthened its economic relations with Egypt outside of the Gulf, to the point where it is now the biggest investment in the Suez Canal Area Development Project. Additionally, it has made investments in restoration initiatives in Iraq and Syria.

China reached a deal earlier this year to re-establish diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which was both significant progress and established China as the region’s leading negotiator.

In fact, Beijing started to place itself as a possible mediator between Israel and the Palestinians after that victory.

Effects of the Israel-Has War

But, the Israel-Hamas conflict has complicated how China approaches the Middle East.

Beijing initially responded to the issue by maintaining a fair delicacy. China’s leaders did not condemn Hamas in the wake of the attack on October 7; instead, they urged both sides to” exercise restraint” and to accept a” two-state solution.”

This is in line with Beijing’s long-standing plan of” non-interfering” in internal affairs of other nations and its core strategic approach to the area.

However, the negative stance clashed with the United States’ and some European countries’ strategies, which pushed China to take a more assertive position.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated China’s position that every nation has the right to self-defense in response to stress from US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and people. He did, however, add a caveat, saying that Israel” if uphold international humanitarian law and safeguard civilians’ health.”

And that making reflects a change in Beijing’s tone, which has gradually shifted toward making claims that are critical of Israel and friendly to the Palestinians.

Due to its failure to urge Israel to end its battle on Gaza, China used its reject energy at the UN on October 25 to obstruct a US resolution that called for an emergency humanitarian pause.

Zhang Jun, the UN ambassador for China, stated that the choice was made in response to” powerful appeals of the entire world, in particular the Egyptian places.”

promoting the South of the world

Given Beijing’s financial problems and political ambitions, such a change is not surprising.

Compared to Israel, China is much more seriously reliant on commerce with the various nations it has forged economic ties with in the Middle East and North Africa.

Beijing has strong monetary incentives to support Israel if political pressures force China to choose between the Arab world and Israel.

However, China has yet another compelling reason to support the Palestinians. Beijing aspires to become regarded as the Global South’s savior. And by supporting Israel, you run the risk of alienating that growing segment.

The Palestinians’ struggle against Israel is viewed as akin to fighting invasion or resisting” segregation” in nations throughout Africa, Latin America, and above. Under that perspective, siding with Israel may put China on the colonial oppressor’s area.

The Belt and Road Initiative, China’s system development program, and its efforts to persuade more nations from the Global South to meet what is now the BRICS economic union run the risk of undermining the diplomatic and economic work China has done.

China’s officials may be considering its maps of the Middle East and pondering whether there is still room for fair geopolitics, even though they may not have changed them.

Professor of Political Science Andrew Latham teaches at Macalester College.

Under a Creative Commons license, this essay has been republished from The Conversation. Read the original publication.

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India should cooperate with Canada‘s probe of Sikh’s killing

Another step in the ongoing diplomatic crisis between the two countries was New Delhi’s demand that Canada return 41 ambassadors from India by October 10. India used the idea of political equality as the justification for its need.

By the date andnbsp, Canada and its political staff did not withdraw and rather chose to hold covert talks with India in an effort to end the crisis. 41 American diplomats left on October 19 in response to New Delhi’s threat to withdraw their political immunity after trying unsuccessfully to convince India. In response to this innovative development, Canada is not taking any hostile action.

After Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s violent andnbsp allegations of American presence in the murder of pro-Khalistan head Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was killed in British Columbia in June, the political crisis broke out. India responded to Canada’s expulsion of a top American diplomat by expelling another American diplomat.

The Indian diaspora & nbsp in Canada was negatively impacted by New Delhi’s travel warnings and suspension of visa services. Recently, partial visa services have resumed and India & nbsp, which is a positive sign for de-escalation.

While attending the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Trudeau & nbsp reaffirmed his accusations. In the midst of tense political relations, he urged India to assist with the research.

Canadian media outlets Revelations in & nbsp have significantly increased the credibility of Trudeau’s claims. According to reports, Five Eyes allies, an intelligence-sharing system that includes the United States, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, shared some of the data supporting the allegations, including human knowledge and intercepted communications between American diplomats.

Claims of Indian involvement in the shooting have been dismissed by the Indian government as” immoral.”

India asserts that Canada andnbsp did never divulge any certain details regarding Nijjar’s murder. However, media reports from unnamed American officials have shown that Indian officials did not dispute the existence of this intelligence during personal discussions.

During the 2023 Group of Twenty Summit in New Delhi, Justin Trudeau brought up this subject with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Jody Thomas, Canada’s national security and intelligence advisor, has traveled to India half since August to speak with her American rival about the situation. According to reports, Modi and US President Joe Biden both brought up the subject at the G20 Summit.

The largest Hindu community in the world is found in Canada, and some of its members have backed the Khalistan movement. India & nbsp has repeatedly expressed concerns about Canada’s perceived leniency toward Sikh extremism and terrorism. It believes that the support of sikhs for an independent state of Khalistan poses a serious threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Ottawa emphasizes that peaceful protests fall within the purview of this political construction and defends the right to freedom of expression in democratic societies.

US worries

The United States has made it clear that it is strongly collaborating with Canada and is extremely concerned about these claims. Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser, has andnbsp rejected media accounts that suggested there should be a border between the United States and Canada, demonstrating that the country takes this issue significantly.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken & nbsp urged India to work with the Canadian investigation during a meeting with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

India is a crucial ally for Canada and its friends in their efforts to counter autocratic regimes like China’s and share political ideals with them. China’s military attacks into disputed areas along the American border pose a serious threat to India.

India alone never shop this perceived Chinese danger and needs assistance from European nations given Beijing’s excellent military and economic might.

The corporate ties that support New Delhi’s relationships with Western nations should be strengthened, as should its democratic credentials. Concerns about authoritarian trends under the Modi administration have been raised by India’s democratic backsliding has & nbsp. If true, India’s alleged role in the murder of a pro-Khalistan president in Canada demonstrates the assertive foreign policy of New Delhi.

This happens as India’s democratic allies are attempting to harmonize their Indo-Pacific approaches at a crucial time. Concerns have been raised by the tragedy about India’s potential to act in a similar manner in various nations, including Australia, the United States, and the UK. Additionally, these countries have sizable Hindu diasporas that support the Khalistan movements.

Ottawa considers India’s alleged involvement in the assassination of a French national on American soil to be gravely violating Canadian sovereignty. India may actively work with Canada in the continued investigations if it maintains its innocence and has nothing to hide. New Delhi may act to ensure that the perpetrators receive judge if it is established that American officials were involved.

A prime example is the 2018 slaying of Jamal Khashoggi, a US citizen and nbsp who was critical of the Saudi government. Washington pursued righteousness for the death of its citizen despite having close economic and geopolitical ties to Saudi Arabia.

The Saudi government initially denied being involved, but under pressure from the US, it acknowledged its part and participated in the examinations. In the end, this assistance resulted in the judgment of eight people.

Governments must be steadfast in their dedication to protecting and defending personal freedom. Recognizing that working with Canada on these studies is India’s best course of action is in its best interest. Engagement, however, seems highly unlikely given India’s & nbsp, the crisis’ increase, and its lack of interest in assistance.

This article and its accompanying article were first published by East Asia Forum, a nonprofit organization based at the Australian National University’s College of Asia and the Pacific and housed within the & nbsp, Crawford School of Public Policy. It is republished with a Creative Commons permit.

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Albanese must aim beyond bilateral gains in China

On the anniversary of then-opposition head Gough Whitlam’s legendary journey in November 1971, Prime Minister Albanese will arrive in Beijing currently( November 4 ). Australia and the People’s Republic of China established diplomatic ties with one another when Whitlam was elected prime minister a little more than one month later.

The foundation of diplomatic ties has always been” shared respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, common non-aggression, no interfering in each other’s domestic affairs, equality and shared benefit, and quiet coexistence.”

These six tenets serve as the cornerstones of the post global order and ought to proceed to direct what has developed into a very important relationship between the two nations in the years that have passed.

China is by far the largest trading partner and buying country in the world, as well as Australia. American exports of goods and services to China this year exceeded$ 200 billion( US$ 130.2 billion ).

Despite being merely 20th in the world in terms of export, Australia will be China’s third-largest importer in 2023 and will provide China and the rest of Northeast Asia with crucial raw materials and energy.

Their financial engagement is driven by the underlying complementarity of the relationship between the two nations. For some American goods, China is the largest individual business.

And for China, Australia is the only nation with the size, balance, and closeness to consistently meet its needs for essential raw materials. Without doing business with the other, neither nation was uphold its standard of living or guarantee the conservation of its progress.

Chain of iron: China's purchases of Australian minerals such as iron ore, seen here being loaded at Port Hedland in Western Australia, are vital to the nation's economic health. Photo: Reuters/David Gray
Ring of iron: For the sake of the country’s economic well-being, China must purchase American metals like iron ore, which is being loaded here at Port Hedland in Western Australia. David Gray, Reuters, and Asia Times Files

Due to its composition, significance to the Chinese steel economy, and influence on energy use, the economic relationship between Australia and China places a particular emphasis on urgency for both nations to address the pressing issue of carbon emissions and their effects on climate change.

Both nations will need to maintain a significant change in their trade and investment relationships in order to achieve the energy transition more quickly and affordably as they work to meet their decarbonization goals and collaborate with other nations to develop green futures. To help blaze the way ahead, this necessitates fostering speech through company, non-official, and government channels.

The two countries have their disagreements and will continue to disagree in the future due to their disparate democratic systems, traditions, and histories, but the six guiding principles upon which the marriage was based also offer the framework to ensure long-term economic and political assistance. The new diplomatic ruptures and trade blockages have been resolved thanks to Australia’s appeal to these principles and the international trading regulations.

The relationship’s scope and character are significant in international and regional financial affairs in addition to being directly relevant to each nation. Australia and China both have a duty to manage their relation in accordance with the international rules-based contracts they have both ratified. The success of the diplomatic monetary relationship depends on that global framework and shared commitment to it.

Unless Australia adopts a global corporate journey with these goals and rules as its top priority in its dealings with China and generally, there won’t be any restoration of the relationship between Australia and China.

When Albanese positioned Australia as a” productive middle power with global passions” in his final talk in Washington before departing for Beijing, he started to explain that plan. & nbsp,

Only two days after his own trip to Beijing, he made the important observation that it is” the responsibility of every country that has benefited from the stability and prosperity of the global rules-based get… to work up and defend it.” This was a significant preface to the anticipated conference meeting between President Joe Biden and Xi for APEC in San Francisco.

Australia, along with China, commits to the values of non-discrimination and equality, as well as the WTO’s guiding principles of mutual benefit and respect for one another not interfering in each of the other countries’ internal affairs. Australia was a prominent and active supporter of China joining the World Trade Organization( WTO ).

The Asia Pacific region’s prosperity and security depend on the international trading system, which also serves as the cornerstone for the two nations’ long-standing participation in APEC, the G20, and the East Asia Summit as well as larger ASEAN-centered agreements like the Regional Economic Cooperation Partnership deal.

China is also interested in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership ( CPTPP ), which calls for deeper economic reforms and higher standard trade rules.

That didn’t be simple, and it will take a while, but now is the time for Australia to support China’s decision to change its course and work on initiatives that will make clear the incremental improvement required to achieve it. The difficulties of joining CPTPP are many of the same difficulties that must be overcome in order to reform the world trading system and the Chinese market.

Representatives of members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal in March. Photo: Reuters / Ivan Alvarado
staff of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement’s Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement in March. Agencies in the image

Australia and China also have similar interests in the economical growth and financial security of the area.

This entails actively participating in local organizations like the Asian Development Bank and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, both of which Australia is a crucial and valuable participant, as well as ensuring the sufficiency and continued representation of our region by international organizations such as the IMF and World Bank.

People-to-people interactions and enduring friends over the years have helped to strengthen the Australia-China marriage. These discussions are crucial to its potential.

The success of the Albanese-Xi sessions in restraining guidelines and regulations in both countries that unduly restrict openness and trust in the transfer of people and ideas needed to manage the relationship going forth depends on acknowledging and celebrating them.

The relationship between education and commerce is strong, which supports these shared interests. The worth that both nations have gained from cooperating on a variety of issues that are crucial to the health of the bilateral relationship over time is dependent on the advertising of company, academic, official, administrative, and private exchanges.

The East Asian Bureau of Economic Research at the Australian National University is led by Shiro Armstrong and headed by Peter Drysdale.

The Australian Financial Review published a version of this article for the first time around.

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China’s imperial model and the Muslim World

As the United States and its allies learned when nations with 70 % of the world’s population rejected UN sanctions against Russia after February 2022, the Global South — with 85 % of its population — has retreated from the Western sphere of influence.

On October 27, 120 nations voted in favor of a UN General Assembly resolution that the United States opposed but which did not condemn Hamas’s invasion on Israel on October 7. The West learned this for the next time.

& nbsp: China’s expanding economic dominance in the developing world is by far the main cause of this tectonic shift in global politics.

Notably, China accomplished this with a full forward deployment of 200 soldiers( soldiers at its foundation in Djibouti ), in contrast to the US’s$ 7 trillion investment in the Global War on Terror over the previous 20 years. China has so far only used gentle authority, despite dire warnings from the US Defense Department and various think tank about its military interests in Eurasia.

Due to growing ties with Malaysia and Indonesia, the Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia, and economic diplomacy in the Persian Gulf, China now exports more to the Muslim world($ 42 billion ) than the United States($ 38 billion ).

China’s export to the US increased to$ 40 billion per month in 2018 from simply$ 30 billion to nations with a majority of Muslims. China’s exports have increased significantly over the past five years, primarily from the Arab world and the Global South. China then exports as much to all developed markets as it does to the Global South nevertheless.

As a result of the Sinocentric inclusion of Asian trade and investment, Indonesia and Malaysia are China’s two biggest Muslim trading lovers.

Chinese imports have benefited greatly from the novel Silk Road across Asia. The former Soviet republics in Central Asia now import Chinese goods at a rate of almost$ 5 billion per month, up from about$ 2 billion in 2018. That has a security matrix, for sure: China decided it couldn’t rely on the US to put an end to jihadists on or near its borders after America’s careless withdrawal from Afghanistan, so it poured money into nearby economies.

Professor Zhang Weiwei of Fudan University told the” Observer” news website on November 3 that” the world has long entered the post-American era ,” and American strategists should pay close attention to him. This does not imply that America is no longer significant. The United States continues to play a significant role. It indicates that the United States is” going against the grain.”

Zhang compared US controls on tech exports to Jake Sullivan’s catchphrase,” little yard, higher fence ,” which he used to describe frog self-restraint in a well.

Zhang claimed that the United States” has isolated itself within this large fencing around a little garden.” Outside is the whole Global South, or non-Western world, which has the largest market, most solutions, and the greatest potential for development.

I went to a Huawei grow in Shenzhen next July. There are now only 15 workers per column, compared to the 80 workers there previously. The plant now produces 1, 800 5G base stations per day on three assembly lines. That facility, one of many run by Huawei, produces close to 700,000 base stations annually, or one-third of the world’s current power. The universe can be wired up industrially by China.

China gains significant social clout as a result. Zhang stated in the cited meeting to” The Observer”:

Although it is difficult, we want the United States to shift. China has had an unbroken society for thousands of years, and its own culture is the source of a great deal of knowledge. For instance, some Americans and Westerners do not accept China’s proposals for” peace and development.”

We cautioned the West against encouraging and supporting the” Arab Spring” when uprisings broke out in Arab nations because doing so would result in an Arab Winter.

The migrant crisis is currently one of the biggest issues facing Europe. Color uprisings have destroyed some nations in the Middle East and North Africa, and a sizable number of refugees have fled to Europe. nbsp: Peace and development are the only ways to address the issue of migrants.

In order to lessen the number of immigrants, we are promoting peaceful creation in Africa and the Middle East as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. So, it makes sense that European nations should take part in China’s” One Belt, One Road” program.

immigrants traveling to Europe. Screenshot from Huck Magazine

Zhang is totally correct: No other nation, besides China, has the means and ability to avert the economic hardship that drives refugees to Europe. The same argument was made by Asia Times editor Uwe Parpart in an article published on October 18 for the Swedish publication Weltwoche.

Between 1979 and the present, China’s per capita income increased from roughly$ 3 to$ 30 per day. This country is aware of how cutting-edge technology can significantly improve the lives of extremely poor people.

With the help of digital infrastructure, rural residents can use a$ 60 smartphone to access microcredit, sell on international markets, receive treatment via healthcare, or receive education in schools with few teachers. Artificial intelligence programs may be more successful in developing markets than in developed types.

I predicted that a” Pax Sinica” may appear in the Middle East ten years ago. China imported 53 % of its oil from the Persian Gulf in 2022. It is obviously interested in keeping hostilities from cutting off its crutch of power. As the largest consumer of Iran’s oil and its largest supplier of commercial goods, China has significant effect in Tehran, making it a moderating impact on Iran in that regard.

The Chinese, like the majority of nations, use mirrors instead than telescopes to watch the rest of the world. Peoples who also speak 200 dialects from six main language groups were assimilated into Chinese culture.

Contrary to Christian Europe, the Chinese empire rarely made an effort to bring its peoples together through faith. According to Sinologist Francisco Sisci, it required them to become” civilized ,” which required learning the written characters, dressing in Chinese attire, and paying taxes to the emperor.

Then, they were free to worship any gods and speak any dialect they wanted. The kingdom in turn provided order and system, both of which were essential in the vast flood flat of Central China.

China wants the Middle Eastern population to stay out of trouble and focus on making money in traditional Chinese style because it sees them as digital regions of a new Taiwanese economic kingdom. According to the standard display, President Xi Jinping responded to European representations about Ukraine and Israel in a video seminar with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on November 3 as follows:

Whether it be the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or the Polish crisis, Xi Jinping emphasized that in order to address its underlying causes, we must think more deeply about security issues, uphold a common, all-encompassing, cooperative, and lasting security concept, as well as encourage the development of an effective, long-lasting security architecture.

Local imbalances and the growth and intensification of conflicts may result from squeezing other nations’ security spaces and arbitrarily supporting one part while ignoring the genuine demands of the other.

Of course, it’s not quite that easy. There are instances, and China’s strategy for dealing with jihadists inside its own borders has proven to be very successful. Punitive expeditions against unassailable barbarians have a long( but distant ) history in China.

In my role as an advisor to SIGNAL, a foundation that promotes Sino-Israeli relations, I have gone to numerous gatherings where eminent Chinese thought leaders explained that China’s position on Middle East issues was caused by the fact that the country had over 50 Arab embassies in comparison to one Israeli ambassador, and that its large Muslim population supported the Palestinians.

China, however, finds it difficult to comprehend why somebody doesn’t cut the center and resume operations. Nationalism, including its Jewish incarnation, is deeply despised by the Chinese.

That line of thinking has a defect, which is highlighted by China’s tripwire awareness regarding the Taiwan issue. Because one rogue state may serve as an example for many more, China will wage war to prevent Taiwan from achieving de jure freedom.

Although the ethnic groups of the Chinese empire may be preserved like flies in gold, they are not necessarily dead or dormant. The popular proverb from the Romance of Three Kingdoms,” The kingdom, much divided, must unite. much united. must divide ,” is the guiding principle of Chinese management.

China has had thousands of years to adapt its ethnic groups, but it is still impossible to guarantee their obedience. However, given that the empire has no desire to provide security, it is unreasonable to expect Eastern Asian countries and tribes to act in a Chinese manner.

China’s position on Center Eastern concerns is still atmospheric. Beijing earns positions for the Global South at a low cost. & nbsp, However, China’s contribution might increase significantly.

According to Zhang, the doctor mentioned earlier, China may have a crucial impact on the refugee crisis. Gaza is one particular migrant crisis that China might be able to assist with.

Menachem Begin, the prime minister of Israel, suggested to later Egyptian President Sadat in 1978 that Egypt should conquer Gaza and end the refugee crisis by naturalizing the Gazans. American diplomats have never considered this option because Sadat declined.

Immediately a second chance? 1977’s Sadat and Begin. Image: Wilson Center

Two-fifths of Egypt’s people live on$ 3 per day, making the country extremely impoverished. With the neighborhood Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas’ family firm, it already has a jihadist issue. It has imprisoned 40,000 Brotherhood members. It is not in need of more.

Egypt’s major opposition to annexing Gaza, however, may be economic if Israel could dismember Hamas. That is a problem that China, in collaboration with the Gulf States, might be able to resolve. China is already actively involved in Egypt, developing facilities and a brand-new high-tech area.

This kind of assistance to Egypt and Israel in resolving the Gaza issue could signify a political revolution if China wanted to take the lead in the Middle East.

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