Zelensky is at war – with his generals

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The president of Ukraine, Volodymir & nbsp Zelensky, is at war with his generals. He has reprimanded Valery & nbsp, Zaluzhny, the head of the Ukrainian armed forces, who last week told the Economist & ndbhp that” just like in the First World War, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.” There won’t likely be a profound and lovely breakthrough, & nbsp.

Yet the New York Times, a representative of the Ukrainian government, has written about Zelensky’s conflict with his commanders.

Zelensky has insisted that Ukraine does defeat Russia in the battle and expel the Russians from the nation. The massive, now-failed offensive by Kyiv, which was primarily focused in the Zaphorize region, failed with significant losses on the Ukrainian & nbsp, side. Additionally, Zelensky’s resumption of the struggle for Bakhmut, which he started in response to his generals’ concerns, was unsuccessful and resulted in significant casualties and equipment costs.

In the meantime, Zelensky insisted on defending Avdiivka, a tiny town dominated by an enormous booze plant. Coke is used in & nbsp blast furnaces to make steel. In and around the city, the Ukrainians are gradually losing floor. A much less worthy and well-trained regional regiment tasked with holding Avdiivka had to take the place of the 54th Mechanized, which the Ukrainians were forced to move to Kupyansk.

August 2022 saw soldiers from the 54th Mechanized Brigade at a happier day. Image: Twitter

Kupyansk is an important tactical railroad hotspot. Andnbsp, Losing it would make it extremely difficult for Ukraine to move items to its forces near Kharkiv, the second-largest city in the nation. This suggests that Kharkiv may soon be the target of a major conflict.

Zaluzhny’s depiction of World War I and his emphasis on how it ended in a standoff in which both flanks dug deep pits and pounded each other with gun are only partial representations of what transpired during that conflict. The other side of the story is that Germany’s inability to fight due to a lack of military supplies and even food for its soldiers caused it to lose the battle. The scales were tipped when the US allied with the Allies.

THE HUNDRED DAYS OFFENSIVE, AUGUST-NOVEMBER 1918 | Imperial War Museums
After surrendering, a German man and an ally man exchange lighting.

Zelensky’s issue is that he didn’t persuade foreign nations to help Ukraine by promoting a standoff. Additionally, Zelensky experienced issues as a result of Zaluzhny’s remarks, which included irrational requirements for technology and weaponry— some of which are simply untrue. Of course, the president wanted more resources and aircraft, but he persisted in saying that with these resources, Ukraine would be able to drive Russia out of the country.

A nice illustration is air power. Ukraine wants 100 to 150 F-16s, according to nbsp. Honestly, nbsp has nowhere to set them and, even if it did, there wouldn’t be many certified aircraft available to fly them. Two F-16s andnbsp that had been disassembled were trucked into Ukraine in early November. There are currently five F-16s in Ukraine, but they need to get assembled again.

It’s unlikely that the two bunches of F-16s that will soon be sent to Ukraine will change anything. & nbsp, These are outdated F-16 models that are difficult to maintain and cannot compete with top-of-the-line Russian aircraft. & nbsp, Worse yet, the transferred F – 16s must be able to operate in a dense Russian air defense battlefield environment for any offensive use. & nbsp, Russia recently added new, mobile air defense systems to its tactically deployed units. & nbsp, There is little chance that the European old F-16s will compete successfully.

( Note: The US needs to exercise caution when using mercenary pilots or thinly veiled Europeans operating aircraft in Ukraine. This ruse might backfire. )

In 2006, a Polish F-16 flies over Texas. Featured image: Lockheed Martin

Zelensky is likewise pleading with the US Congress to increase support for Ukraine by billion, including funding for earnings for military personnel and government employees as well as retirement funds. The annual bill alone for & nbsp is$ 13.3 billion.

A total of$ 61.4 billion has been requested for Ukraine, with more than$ 45 billion going toward military supplies. Five or six aviation companies could be purchased with the total amount. Ukraine will reportedly apply that money in a year( though there may be additional calls later in the year ). Aviation carriers have been a part of the ship for 50 years.

Biden had the brilliant idea to combine favorite Jewish help for the battle against Hamas with less well-liked Ukrainian aid, which was unlikely to draw much attention on Capitol Hill. Additionally, Zelensky saw this as a fantastic chance for him to travel to Israel in order to” show solidarity” and ensure that everyone knew that Israel and Ukraine were united at the hip. Additionally, Zelensky was looking for picture opportunities with Netanyahu and Isaac Hertzog, the leader of Israel.

Zelensky believed that Israel may overlook Netanyahu and Israel’s severe censure. Zelensky claimed that the Russia-Iran empire was caused by Israel and the NBP next year. He demanded weapons from Israel, particularly the Iron Dome of Israel. & nbsp,

Israel was reluctant to give Ukraine access to its cutting-edge technologies for fear that Russia would compromise it. Israel also didn’t want to lose any influence it may have had over Russian affairs by causing Russia yet more problems.

It seems that the Jewish side did not approve of a Zelensky visit, which was likely planned by the State Department and White House. & nbsp, Washington, as it frequently does, believes that if it says” jump ,” the response is always,” How high ?”; and meanwhile, Netanyahu claimed that the time was not right for a visit.

Washington redoubled the energy and bent the arm of the Israeli government. However, the visit seems to have been canceled after an Israeli TV channel received word of the & nbsp initiative. & nbsp: From an Israeli perspective, it is not a good idea to link Israeli aid to Ukrainian aid, especially given the Senate’s ongoing debate.

Zelensky seems to have backtracked and put the blame for everything on the Russians. He stated that it was” clear” that the Middle Eastern War” takes aside the target” on November 6. It is, in my opinion, one of the Russian Federation’s objectives.

Even if the visit occurs right away, it didn’t have the advertising value that Washington and Ukraine desired.

Peace Talks

Many covert initiatives are being made to mediate talks between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, Washington is looking into ways to reach a peace agreement with Russia while pushing for more assistance.

Zelensky, of lessons, and nbsp are against negotiations with Russia. I don’t have any relations with Russians, & nbsp. They are aware of my place, too. That is the stance of both my nation and our persons. We don’t want to talk to jihadists, and since they have nothing to say, I’m not prepared to do so. Jihadists are untrustworthy because they always come up.

A significant issue is how Russia perceives the conflict in Ukraine and its” unique military activity.” In particular, Russia thinks that NATO and Russia are engaged in combat in the Russian conflict. & nbsp, Therefore, a negotiation would inevitably need to include NATO( which, in the end, means Washington ) in addition to Ukraine. & nbsp: The Russians want NATO to leave Ukraine, even though they do want to resolve the territorial concern( and, by extension, protect the Russian-speaking people in Ukraine ).

Conflict with Generals

On September 28, 2022, Soldiers Zinovii ( L ), 56, and Vasyl ( R ), 50, pose for a photo in southern Ukraine. It was getting more difficult every week for a regiment that had been in Bakhlmut for two months. Photo: Independent Kyiv

Zelensky most likely lost the support of his best generals, but is that enough to compel Ukraine’s authority to change? & nbsp, It is challenging to respond to the query. & nbsp, The outcomes on the battlefield have a significant impact. & nbsp,

Avdiivka might be taken by the Russians and Ukrainian forces pushed up in a few days. & nbsp, Changes elsewhere could be detrimental to Ukraine’s army, which is in desperate need of personnel. In addition, & nbsp,

The help of Ukraine’s government and inside intelligence operations is the other factor in the equation. General Kyrylo Budanov is in charge of Ukraine’s military and intelligence operation, known as the Main Directorate of Intelligence( GUR MO ). The SSU, or non-military intellect, is the successor to the Russian KGB. It is led by Vasyl Malyuk at nbsp.

If Zelensky is actually in danger, it might be Budanov, and any ally he forms with the Ukrainian generals may either force him to consent to talks with Russia or result in his replacement. & nbsp,

It is obvious that the present course of events is unfavorable for both Zelensky and Ukraine. Soldiers on the battlefield now know this, nbsp. Does Zelensky veer off course or wait for the inevitable, nbsp?

Stephen Bryen, who oversaw the Near East Subcommittee of the
As a lieutenant director of security, the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and nbsp
is currently a senior fellow at Yorktown Institute and the & nbsp, Center for Security Policy.

His Substack, Weapons and Strategy was the original subject of this article. Asia Times is republishing it with their consent, nbsp.

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Battlefield, diplomatic challenges assail Zelensky

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The country’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, acknowledged in a recent interview with The Economist that the position on the front is dark and that no discovery is immediate more than 20 weeks into the conflict in Ukraine and five months after the country has launched its most recent battle.

Continued Russian air strikes across Ukraine as far as the northern city of Lviv do not augur well for the upcoming spring as concerns about the sustainability of American aid to Ukraine grow amid a shift in focus to the war in the Middle East.

Therefore, it should come as no surprise that new initiatives appear to be being made to force Ukraine toward talks with Russia. For the time being, this is unlikely to result in exact negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, but calling to end the war at the bargaining tables will not go away. Kiev and its European allies both require a more precise understanding of the outcome.

Volodymyr Zelensky currently has no opportunities to engage in discussions with Russia on a domestic level. The Russian leader did keep an eye on public opinion surveys in Ukraine because it appears that he is thinking about holding elections in the spring.

The vast majority of Ukrainians, according to a study released in October, are opposed to making any territorial concessions to Russia, even if doing so would result in an additional and more expensive battle.

All facets of the people share this trait. Even among Russian speakers, 65 %, as well as those who lived near the front lines in the east( 73 % and south 74 % of the country ), said they rejected a deal that would have traded Ukrainian territory for peace.

Zelensky’s presidential challengers, including his former advisor Oleksiy Arestovich, currently have little chance of improving their chances of defeating the current leader in elections if they push for conversations.

But in the upcoming weeks, this could alter. Second, the Ukrainians’ support for Zelensky’s decision to make no agreements to Russia is based on maintaining the status quo, which is far from certain. Over the past several decades, the Russian battle hasn’t made many advancements.

In the meantime, the Belarusian assault on Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine has advanced steadily. Despite the high individual value of the procedure, Russian troops are likely to take the city, just as they did with Bakhmut and Soledar in the past.

Politically speaking, the presence of China from Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan at the recent meeting in Malta is a serious setback for efforts to hold an international peace conference under Ukrainian conditions. It’s noteworthy that China took part in a comparable event in Jeddah since late as August.

Concerns about foreign aid

Next, continuing northern war, economic, and political support is crucial for maintaining the status quo. Particularly in the US, this cannot be taken for granted.

The then-Democratic House of Representatives passed a$ 40 billion support bill in May 2022 with 368 votes to just 57 against. A$ 300 million bill was also approved in September of this year, but there were more than twice as many No votes( 117 ).

Then, a expenses excluding support for Ukraine has been passed by the Republican-majority House. This bill is unlikely to pass in the Democrat-led Senate and will likely be vetoed by President Joe Biden.

Given that the final$ 425 million of the$ 18 billion Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative has been committed, the US-US aid standoff is especially troubling. Aid to Ukraine will be a political sport to be played between the House, Senate, and White House given the divisive nature of US government. This is probably going to get worse, no better, as the US enters an election time.

The condition is only marginally better in Europe. In a game call with two Russian performers, Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni admitted to popular” Russian weakness” while feigning to be speaking with African Union leaders.

Hungary and Slovakia both opposed more support for Ukraine as European Union leaders discussed their upcoming four-year resources in Brussels at the end of October. Ursula von der Leyen, chairman of the EU Commission, has continued to support Ukraine in the interim.

This includes a proposal for the start of accession talks on the nation’s membership in the EU, which is likely to be approved by EU officials at an EU summit in December, content to the commission giving it favorable review.

The EU’s€ 5 billion( US$ 5.35 billion ) military aid package pales in comparison to US help up until now, despite the fact that it may give Zelensky political support by starting accession talks and keeping Ukraine financially viable.

Questionable results

A second problem serves as an example of the stress on Zelensky. Zaluzhny was reprimanded by one of his representatives for his remarks in The Economist, and he may have quickly denied being under pressure to consider discussions with Russia. However, he has yet to show that his political and military approach will fully achieve their goal of reestablishing Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial unity.

The degree of Western help over the ensuing months may have a significant impact on how long this window of opportunity may be open for Zelensky. After 20 times of war, European nations may be discouraged, but they must maintain — and possibly even enhance— their support for Ukraine.

This is no longer just a standoff on the ground; it is the good alternative. The very real chance of a Russian beat on the battle and later humiliation at the bargaining table arises when support is withheld.

Tetyana Malyarenko teaches international relations and holds the Jean Monnet professorship in Western security at the National University Odessa Law Academy. Stefan Wolff is a teacher of global protection from the University of Birmingham.

Under a Creative Commons license, this essay has been republished from The Conversation. Read the original publication.

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How anti-Semitism is a breeding ground for terrorism

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Isn’t trying to vanquish the oldest and most advanced of hatreds an ambitious goal? Anti-Semitism has existed for centuries in various forms, including theft, abuse, assault, and, as a pinnacle, the mass death of Jews.

However, one should not erroneously think that anti-Semitism simply refers to prejudice against Jews. If left unchecked, this prejudice poses a threat to society at large and is viewed negatively by political ideals.

The battle against anti-Semitism is currently facing a new obstacle. The Israel-Hamas war’s increase has stoked animosity toward Jews at previously unheard-of levels. Anti-Semitic situations occurred after the fight broke out all over the world, and Europe was no exception.

The rising anti-Semitism in some European nations is one significant issue that is already manifesting itself, according to author Dino Krause, a specialist in international terrorism at the Danish Institute for International Studies.

” Antisemitic hate crimes, such as targeting synagogues, Jewish schools, or Jewish people in public ,” have already increased noticeably since the terrorist attack in Hamas on October 7.

During the first 10 weeks of the Israel-Has conflict, police in France alone, which has the largest Jewish population in Europe, recorded more than 300 real acts of anti-Semitism. On some Berlin houses, the Stars of David have been spray-painted, evoking the persecution of Jews in Nazi Germany.

In comparison to 14 incidents and 12 acts during the same time next year, the Metropolitan Police of London recorded 105 anti-Semitic happenings in the first half of October.

harmful function of al Qaeda and ISIS

Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State( ISIS) share Hamas’ viewpoints on a number of points, but they all view Israel as an” illegal occupier” of Muslim lands. New terrorist problems in Europe have proven to be yet another example of this.

Mohammed Mogouchkov, who had formerly sworn fealty to the Islamic State, tragically stabbed a professor and injured two other people on October 13 at the Lycée Gambetta-Carnot in Arras, France. There was a connection between the strike and subsequent events in Israel, according to European Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin.

Three days later, in Brussels, a 45-year-old Turkish gun killed two Scandinavian soccer fans. According to French officials, the extremist act may be connected to the ongoing Middle East conflict. The person claimed that he was” inspired by ISIS” in a film that was posted before the strike.

” We have also seen an increase in jihadist advertising, from both Islamic State – and al-Qaeda-affiliated online programs, which have sought to instrumentalize the ongoing civil struggling in Gaza as a result of Jewish air cuts in order to call upon their followers to carry out lone-wolf attacks in Europe ,” Krause noted.

These developments are especially concerning in light of the recent Koran burnings, which have already increased the extremist threat in some European nations, such as Denmark and Sweden.

The expert added that new developments may also increase Islamophobia in Western nations, adding that the new jihadist terrorist attacks in Belgium and France also highlight the ongoing threat of such terrorism in Europe.

What has been accomplished thus much

The European Commission adopted its first-ever standard strategy for combating anti-Semitism on October 5, 2021. The report recommends starting a number of initiatives to track hate speech, create counternarratives, safeguard Jewish sites, and raise awareness of the Holocaust. The European Union also promised to work with Israel more closely in its battle against anti-Semitism.

However, as is evident from current events, significantly has yet to be done. With the Israel-Hamas battle acting as a catalyst, the anti-Semitism issue is much more difficult than one might imagine. The fight against this discrimination requires a multifaceted strategy and should not be restricted to addressing Islamic militancy alone if it is to be effective.

European regulators must create strategies to address the issue of anti-Semitism, which continues to be a big problem not just among parts of Europe’s Sunni populations but also in the wider societies, especially among some adherents of deep – left and far-right social movements, according to Krause, elaborating on the EU response to the threat.

Previously linked to neo-fascists, anti-Israel sentiments are now more and more a left-wing problem in Europe. According to a report from the New York-based Anti-Defamation League, anti-Semitism is” making inroads in the pro-independence French and Spanish parties.”

coping with a terrorist risk

Christopher Wray, the chairman of the US Federal Bureau of Investigation, recently testified before the Senate Homeland Security Committee and made an unsettling speech. According to the US protection service, a number of international extremist businesses have called for attacks against the West in recent weeks.

The FBI producer forewarned that” We assess that the behavior of Hamas and its allies may serve as an inspiration the likes of which we haven’t seen since ISIS launched its so-called empire years before.”

Krause advises continuing to work toward better integrating people of Muslim communities into Western societies, taking into account the fact that jihadist stars frequently garner support from disillusioned children.

In order to combat the greatest immediate threat posed by now radicalized individuals who may be considering carrying out terrorist attacks, European police and intelligence services must remain vigilant, he continued.

Israeli societies are more exposed the greater the terrorist threat. Ignoring this reality is nothing less than giving violent radicals the upper hand. At the same time, it’s important to realize that anti-Semitism is deaf. History has consistently demonstrated that this prejudice harms people, whether they are Jews or not.

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How to read China’s US Treasury sell-off

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In the home stretch of a rocky 2023, China and Warren Buffett are warning the global economy that the year ahead could be even more precarious.

Not directly or in tandem, of course. But the financial decisions being made in Omaha, Nebraska and Beijing don’t seem very promising for the 12-14 months ahead.

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway conglomerate, for example, is raising its cash position in headline-generating ways. Its cash pile is now a record-breaking US$157.2 billion amid rising global interest rates and a lack of solid investment options.

Xi Jinping’s China is also going as liquid as it can — and rapidly — without panicking investors everywhere. As of the end of August, China’s stockpile of US Treasury securities dropped to the lowest level in at least 14 years.

What’s more, Beijing’s exposure to US government debt has fallen about 40% in just the last decade. Xi’s Communist Party has long since passed the dubious honor of Washington’s top banker to Japan. But at No 2, with $805.4 billion of US Treasuries, China’s selling activity is raising eyebrows in government offices and trading pits around the globe.

Though some might claim foul geopolitical play, there could be perfectly rational economic reasons for Xi’s government to offload US debt. As economist Torsten Slok at Apollo Global Management sees it, “growth in China is slowing for cyclical and structural reasons, and Chinese exports to the US are lower. As a result, China has fewer dollars to recycle into Treasuries.”

Brad Setser, a former US Treasury Department economist, says the suspicion that Xi is exacting revenge on the US “sort of makes sense. China does worry about the weaponization of the dollar and the reach of US financial sanctions. And why would a rising power like China want to fund the Treasury of a country that China views as standing in the way of the realization of the China dream ­– at least in the Pacific?”

Yet, Setser says, “that is not what I believe is actually happening.” The bulk of China’s post-2012 efforts to diversify its reserves “have come not from shifting reserves out of the dollar, but rather by using what could have been reserves to support the Belt and Road and the outward expansion of Chinese firms.

Those non-reserve foreign assets, strangely enough, seem to be mostly in dollars; almost all the documented Belt and Road project loans, for example, have been in dollars.”

A Belt and Road bridge project in Croatia. Image: Twitter

Whatever the motivation, though, the global financial system is right to worry about the wider fallout from China selling dollars, including surging US yields. US bond rates recently hit a 17-year high and further spikes are sure to hit asset markets around the globe.

Slok notes that rising US yields are “inconsistent” with the view that stock markets are undervalued. “In short, something has to give,” Slok notes. “Either stocks have to go down to be consistent with the current level of interest rates. Or long-term interest rates have to go down to be consistent with the current level of stock prices.”

Strategist Lauren Sanfilippo at Bank of America sees China’s selling of Treasuries, circa 2023, as a bookmark of sorts. The other was in 2013, when senior People’s Bank of China officials declared it was “no longer in China’s favor to accumulate foreign exchange reserves.” That, she argues, marks “the beginning of a downtrend in China’s holdings of US Treasuries.”

In late 2013, Sanfilippo says, China owned more than $1.3 trillion in Treasuries, in excess of 23% of all foreign holdings. More recently, and over the last 18 months, China has sold more than $200 billion in Treasuries.

This isn’t the full picture, though. All in all, Sanfilippo says, “the landscape of buyers of US Treasuries has shifted. While foreigners own 30%, that share has been declining. The Federal Reserve owns 18%, or another $4.7 trillion, down from a peak of $6 trillion via the monthly run off of $60 billion of Treasuries through their ongoing quantitative tightening program. Importantly, and increasingly coming to the table, are hedge funds, pensions, retail investors, mutual funds and insurers as marginal buyers.”

In Sanfilippo’s view, the “bottom line” is that “foreigners are still a major source of demand for our paper. An important fact, particularly when accounting for a growing US deficit. A list of concerns such as a shifting geopolitical landscape, polarizing US politics, hits to the US credit rating, or a worrying pile of debt, could all chip away at the allure for US assets over the long term.”

But, she notes, “good reasons remain for our preference of US dollar-denominated assets relative to non-US dollar assets. The US economy remains the largest, wealthiest and most competitive economy backstopped by the US corporate sector. Globally speaking, that’s a rare combination that continues to drive flows into US assets, both foreign and domestic.”

Even so, Washington’s bankers in Asia losing faith en masse could be the game-changer officials in Beijing have long feared. The nine Asia-Pacific economies holding the most US debt are sitting on more than $3 trillion of it.

That, at a moment when the US national debt tops $33 trillion and the Fed might soon extend its most aggressive tightening cycle since the late 1990s. Add in extreme political dysfunction in Washington putting the last of its AAA credit ratings at risk.

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Image: Xinhua

The risk is that all that red ink prompts more of Washington’s bankers to buy fewer Treasuries or, worse, call some loans.

In March 2018, Cui Tiankai, China’s then-ambassador to the US, hinted that Beijing might scale back on debt holdings amid concerns about losses. “We are looking at all options,” he said.

That same year, Fan Gang, a top PBOC adviser, said the time to diversify had come. “We are a low-income country, but we are a high-wealth country,” Fan said. “We should make better use of capital. Rather than investing in US government debt, it’s better to invest in some real assets.”

Those concerns in 2018 were being expressed seven years after the US lost the first of its AAA ratings – from S&P Global Ratings. They also came nearly a decade after then-Chinese premier Wen Jiabao in 2009 urged Washinton to safeguard its creditworthiness.

“We have made a huge amount of loans to the United States,” Wen said at the time. “Of course, we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am a little bit worried.” Washington, Wen stressed, must “honor its words, stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets.”

One big worry for China and the rest of Asia: that bickering in Washington between President Joe Biden’s Democrats and the Republicans loyal to predecessor Donald Trump might brawl in ways that prompt Moody’s Investors Service to downgrade the US as Fitch Ratings did in August.

With approval ratings in the low 40s, at best, Biden’s path to defeating Trump in November 2024 is narrowing. Trump has suggested in the past that he might default on US debt to retaliate against China.

Also on Trump’s watch, from 2017 to 2021, America’s standing in Transparency International’s annual corruption perceptions index nosedived 11 places since from 2017 to 2021 – to a 27nd ranking from 16th place.

These aren’t comforting data points for China and other Asian governments effectively holding Washington’s mortgage. As 2024 approaches, Xi, the strongest Chinese leader since Mao Zedong, may also be trying to avoid terrible headlines about hundreds of billions of state wealth lost to US yield volatility. It’s complicated, of course.

The resulting surge in US yields if China accelerated Treasuries selling would boomerang back on China’s economy, just as it’s growing the slowest in three decades. As rates rise, American consumers will buy fewer Chinese goods. The US, of course, is already slowing. In October, the US added just 150,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, a marked slowdown.

“Some of [October’s] weakness will reverse next month with the United Auto Worker (UAW) strike ending, but there is more weakness beyond that,” says economist Thomas Simons at Jefferies, a US investment bank. “This data fits in line with the trend that had been in place before the surprisingly strong September print.”

Yet as Buffett’s Berkshire noted in a recent report: “The effects of significant increases in home mortgage interest rates in the US over the past year has slowed demand for our home building businesses and our other building products businesses. We continue to anticipate certain of our businesses will experience weakening demand and declines in revenues and earnings into 2024.”

As such, economist Mark Williams at Capital Economics doubts that Beijing is letting political objectives dictate foreign exchange reserve management.

“Falls in the value of China’s recorded holdings of US Treasuries tell us little about whether China is divesting from the dollar,” Williams notes. “A broader look at the data suggests that it isn’t, despite geopolitical pressure to decouple. The analysis of the US Fed suggests that China has been a net buyer overall,” of dollar assets.

Photo: Reuters/Jason Lee
China isn’t apparently wholesale dumping US debt. Photo: Asia Times Files / Reuters / Jason Lee

Setser, who’s now with the Council on Foreign Relations, thinks worries about China dumping US debt are overdone. In his view, there “aren’t realistic channels for financial contagion” from the second-biggest economy to the US. Bottom line, he sees “no real scenario” in which China “disrupts” American markets in ways the Fed can’t handle.

But can the PBOC handle things? Some of the US Treasuries sales of late seem to reflect a desire to have funds available to keep the yuan from extending its 5.5% drop this year.

On the one hand, it’s increasing the odds China will import inflation amid elevated global commodities prices. On the other, it raises the risks of additional defaults among property developers as offshore debt payments become more expensive.

Still, as recent actions by Xi’s government and Buffett suggest, there may be an even bigger economic storm brewing in 2024. As such, some battening down of the hatches may be in order.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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The ripple effects of the Israel-Gaza conflict

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It has been difficult to find research that suggests the issue is anything other than unresolvable as the earth has watched in horror at the events taking place in Israel and Palestine. However, states had now more than ever use this opportunity to pursue a resolution of the larger Israel-Palestine problem.

Its effects won’t only be felt in the Middle East if they are left unanswered. Otherwise, it may cause instability in nations far from the issue. Above all, it will remain the suffering that innocent lives in the area are subjected to.

The attack by Hamas on Israel & nbsp on October 7 caught Iran’s leaders off guard. However, the increase in violence has temporarily halted the development of ties between Israel and Muslim nations. This effectively accomplishes Iran’s goals.

Tehran, however, is unlikely to benefit from an increase of the condition. And recently, after emerging from a twin problems of an ailing business and months-long anti-regime demonstrations, Tehran appears to be & nbsp, fascinated in good-neighborly behavior, perhaps in an effort to save its faltering economy.

Strategically speaking, it would not be wise for Iran to move up the escalatory staircase at a time when the local environment is favorable to it. Tehran will welcome the chance to assert its innovative credentials and engage in political posturing in the area, but it won’t welcome either its own immediate involvement or that of Hezbollah, the” queen jewel” of Iran’s friends and proxies there based in Lebanon.

In a speech to his supporters on Friday, Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah made it clear that the group may hold off on intervening in the conflict until after the Israel-Lebanese border was warm.

Iran is indicating that it could intensify the issue if it so desired through the problems by its supporters on Israel and US outposts in Syria and Iraq. Israel has now crossed” dark lines” that” may force people to take action ,” according to President Ebrahim Raisi. What Tehran’s red traces are and how it intends to respond to Israel are still unknown as civilian deaths in Gaza increase.

US critical to all solutions

Israel continues to be the only nation that is de-escalate the position in the area, despite America’s staunch support for it. China does not already possess the soft or hard strength to contribute in any way to the resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict.

The US and nbsp were held responsible for the Gaza problems by Russia. However, neither Russia nor Iran will want the condition to worsen into a war that will be disastrous for the area. Moscow never afford to send more of its government to Syria, which is already overburdened. Israel may reciprocate by selling weapons to Ukraine if the Kremlin kept hosting Hamas, as it did in soon October.

Although there hasn’t yet been a local issue, there are still more civilian deaths in Gaza and the NBP. Israel rejected US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s request for” charitable stops” in the battle on Friday. It is important to note that the US vetoed a UN Security Council resolution calling for charitable stops in Gaza on October 18.

On a larger scale, the longer the Israel-Palestine conflict festers, more and more the weakening of the world order may occur; the United Nations is now all but powerless to stop the violence.

After UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres stated that Hamas’ attacks did not occur” in a vacuum ,” Israel & nbsp, perhaps taking note, resigned on October 28 in protest at what he called the organization’s feeble response to the crisis.

President Joe Biden discussed British leadership in the world during his conversation to Americans andnbsp on October 16. If not to protect innocent lives in the area, then at least out of self-preservation, he may follow through on his own words and devote the remainder of his term to the pursuit of a workable two-state solution. There are numerous negative effects of an unsettled Israel-Palestine issue. & nbsp,

The Israel-Palestine issue needs to be resolved.

First, there is now a gap between public opinion, & nbsp, and establishment politicians across the West, especially among young people. Children from all over the world can connect showing solidarity with Palestinians with other social justice movements like Black Lives Matter and weather justice thanks to social media.

The possibility of demonization will increase for a political group that disregards popular opinion. In some nations, this will give a deep right that is already in power more room.

Second, along with an increase in andnbsp, Islamophobia, and anti-Semitism, an unsettled Israel-Palestine conflict may become a nuclear demarcation point in politics across nations. This may cause instability in various civilizations.

Second, societies won’t have open debate, which will expose them to widespread propaganda and misinformation. Deception spread by social media during the current battle has only served to exacerbate the conflict, which has tragic results.

Smart states should allow their societies to have a serious discussion while being on the lookout for any violent incitement. The right to resist is a part of free speech. The ban on pro-Palestine protests in France and Germany does not bode well for the balance of their territories.

In the end, the Israel-Palestine issue poses a threat to the already precarious global order. Responsible nations must urgently follow peace and work toward a comprehensive agreement that addresses issues like borders, settlements, security, and Israeli sovereignty in order to preserve stupid lives and global stability.

The dangers of inaction are also great to dismiss, even though the path ahead appears to be nearly impossible.

The Syndication Bureau, which holds trademark, provided this article.

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Australia outdoing US to counter China in the Pacific

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The US guests invited Western leaders to an National basketball game just before the next conference between the US and the Pacific Islands Forum took place in September at the White House. One, however, stood out as being excluded: Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands Manasseh Sogavare.

Some people began to wonder if Sogavare’s absence was proof that Beijing had won a different kind of competition— the US and China were vying for influence in Oceania.

Sogavare has made no secret of his growing friendliness toward China. For instance, his government made the decision to” switch” diplomatic ties from Taiwan to China in 2019. Three years later, it also signed a contentious security agreement with Beijing.

But the US hasn’t just stood by. Following the first US-Pacific conference last year, Washington unveiled a new Pacific Partnership Strategy that shares objectives and goals for post-pandemic economic recovery, nuclear disarmament, maritime security, and climate change mitigation.

Additionally, the US promised the Pacific$ 810 million, or$ 1.275 billion. A portion of this, totaling about$ 600 million, was set aside for the Pacific Fisheries Agency to house fish that was outlawed, unreported, and unregulated.

Additionally, the US has enlisted friends. In order to coordinate their engagement to the area, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom teamed up with the US last year to shape a group known as Partners in the Blue Pacific.

With this commitment, the US has come to represent the region really and, more importantly, China’s expanding footprint as a danger to its interests. Oceania now seems to be important.

This year marks the Pacific Islands Forum’s annual conference in the Cook Islands, making it a good time to consider the increased interest from foreign powers like the US, China, and Australia as well as what it all means, particularly to the local populace.

American military viewing a Pacific island nation from above. Photo: Twitter

Surface-level interaction

For the US, China and fish appear to be the main sources of involvement in the Pacific Islands. However, these interests by themselves do not elevate the area above others in terms of tactical significance.

The Biden government’s February 2022 Indo-Pacific Strategy serves as a helpful manual for China. China’s” force and anger span the world, but it is most acute in the Indo-Pacific,” according to the statement.

Yet, despite rumors about Chinese basis, airstrips, and dock in the Pacific, there hasn’t been much of a Taiwanese military presence there.

In fact, the US dominates the Pacific in terms of military might. It has:

    basis in South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Guam, Hawaii, and Japan

  • Papua New Guinea and a recently signed safety agreement
  • special military exposure to Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia.

As a result of US dominance in the North Pacific, these nations are more likely to follow Washington’s policies on international affairs, making Sogavares position on China more of an aberration.

Additionally, it’s important to consider the numbers and enthusiasm regarding US assistance for the fish company. The$ 600 million commitment is only three-quarters of the total funding promised in 2022, and it spans ten years.

Since China’s very subsidized fleets are the ones that are primarily accused of illegal hunting, this vow also serves as yet another type of local deterrence against Beijing.

In contrast, the US doesn’t appear to be as interested in developing industry, investment, construction, or scholarships in the Pacific, all of which are industries where China is thriving.

Australia takes a unique route.

Nevertheless, it appears that the ring is turning in Australia. For example, the Pacific Engagement Visa was finally approved by parliament in October. As a result, up to 3, 000 Western islands will be able to live forever in Australia each year.

The importance of the card lies in its potential to change Australia into a country that resembles the Pacific more.

Research has shown that for Pacific Islanders, having access to continuous movement is more beneficial than receiving development aid. Additionally, the benefits to Western people are practically immediate.

There is the side benefit that welcoming Western migrants is things China will not do, which is of regional interest. ” This is part of a broader strategy to integrate the region in the long term ,” according to Fiji’s deputy prime minister.

However, the American state is bound in a similar way to the US. Compared to economic or evolutionary needs, defense concerns can be addressed much more quickly.

And whether or not Australia’s military deployment in the Pacific is in response to a blatant Chinese danger, it only serves to reinforce the long-held belief that Canberra is more concerned with protecting the place of the area than its citizens’ well-being.

Despite the fact that Western leaders are eager for this, unlike China, Australia’s government cannot order businesses to invest in the area. ( The lone exception is Telstra’s acquisition of Digicel Pacific. )

China’s debt trap politics has received a lot of attention, but its real influence over Pacific rulers lies in the promise of future projects and the line of investments.

Qian Bo, China’s special envoy to the Pacific, is renowned for regaling his Pacific counterparts with mocking observations about the Australian economy and its incapacity to satisfy their needs, whether as a place for Pacific exports or an investment source.

Despite the fact that public opinion has been changing in recent years, significantly increasing Australia’s Western support spending is also politically difficult.

Significantly, Australia’s minister for international development recently aimed at” transactional” development projects intended to assist mission heads in resolving” short-term” issues. Australia’s assistance is least effective in the Pacific, where this pattern is especially noticeable.

There is little risk of regional push-back on fellowships for the children of social leaders, enormous venues and swanky government buildings, even though China’s Western aid has plateaued since 2016. Additionally, China’s infrastructure spending has forced Australia to switch from grant-based support to self-financing development infrastructure.

President of the Solomon Islands Manasseh Sogavare and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi embrace in the Covid period. Photo: Xinhua

Who are the real Western countries?

What matters in the area is the material effects of all of this international interest.

Despite President Joe Biden’s assurances that things will be different this time, the US has long been accused of losing interest in the Pacific immediately.

Nevertheless, if” strategic rejection” of China is the only place in which the US is willing to commit to on-the-ground change, this does not elevate the Pacific islands to the top of the list of American interests worldwide. And it hardly scratches the worries about financial growth and climate change that have been voiced throughout the area.

Biden reportedly responded,” because we’re a Pacific region ,” when Chinese President Xi Jinping questioned him about why America was working so closely with Australia. However, if former President Donald Trump is re-elected, the Pacific area may have to deal with a government that downplays climate change and shows little interest in the area outside of China and fish.

Australia, in contrast, has made a significant step toward becoming an exact Pacific region with the Pacific Engagement Visa. And despite the fact that the opposition is led by a person who once made fun of rising sea levels, Pacific issues are held by both parties.

All Australians should ponder the issue of why it matters. Because the why component is very important to the Pacific.

Graeme Smith teaches as an associate professor at Australian National University, and Henryk Szadziewski is an online at the University of Hawaii’s Center for Pacific Islands Studies.

Under a Creative Commons license, this post has been republished from The Conversation. Read the original publication.

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Japan-Philippines moving toward US-led trilateral alliance

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MANILA: During his two-day official visit to Manila last year, Fumio Kishida said,” I am honored to have the opportunity to be the first Japanese Prime Minister to communicate here at the Congress of the Philippines, which has a long history.”

The Japanese leader argued during the historic speech that the two nations have now entered a” golden age” of bilateral relations amid an unprecedented convergence of strategic interests.

Kishida traveled to Southeast Asia to strengthen defense ties with like-minded partners just one year after launching a new era in” realism diplomacy” and pledging to double Japan’s defense spending in terms of its gross domestic product ( GDP ).

Japan is currently pursuing closer defence cooperation with the neighboring country in addition to being a leading export destination and leading investor for the Philippines.

Kishida unveiled a new security aid item during his trip to Manila, which was highlighted by an ocean sensor system. As part of the growing bilateral maritime security cooperation, Japan is also anticipated to supply the Philippine Coast Guard( PCG ) with more multi-role vessels.

Importantly, Japan is pursuing a Reciprocal Access Agreement( RAA ) with the Philippines, which could eventually lead to expanded bilateral defense exchanges, such as regular wargames and partial basing access.

During his trip to Southeast Asia, Kishida also traveled to Malaysia, where he advocated for the” new vision of cooperation”& nbsp, which was focused on maintaining a rules-based order in the area. & nbsp,

Malaysia has been chosen as one of Japan’s new Official Security Assistance ( OSA ) program beneficiaries, along with the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Fiji, with a focus on rebuffing Chinese naval assertiveness.

The state-backed newspaper Global Times in China criticized Kishida’s visit as a” troublemaking journey” that offered” gift packs ,” which primarily contained” lethal weapons ,” because it was aware of the geopolitical significance of his regional tour.

All wind companions

Kishida wasn’t making his second trip to the area. In the midst of Tokyo’s burgeoning strategic ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations( ASEAN) bloc, Shinzo Abe, a former prime minister of Japan, had frequently visited the area.

In the past ten years, Kishida has played a key role in the rapidly growing tactical ties between Japan and the Philippines due to their shared concerns about China.

Under the leadership of past Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, Manila’s relations with the US and China underwent significant changes, but Japan was able to keep a positive momentum.

Then-president Rodrigo Duterte and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping met on August 30, 2019, at Beijing’s National Aquatics Center. Photo: Robinson Ninal / Philippine Presidential Photo

In fact, Duterte slowly endorsed increased military participation with Japan despite frequently criticizing the West in favor of China. Teodoro Locsin, a member of Duterte’s top cabinet, and Delfin Lorenzana traveled to Tokyo last year for their first-ever” 2 2″ meeting in order to” strengthen defense cooperation in light of the increasingly harsh security environment.”

Although Duterte’s rhetoric toward Beijing was generally accommodative, his top diplomat and defense chief expressed” major concern” over the coastal confidence of the Eastern power and, along with their Japanese rivals,” highly opposed” any unilateral action that jeopardizes regional peace and security.

The Philippines, like Japan, voted to suspend Russia’s participation in the United Nations Human Rights Council while the then-president of the Philippines continued to maintain” neutrality” regarding the Ukraine war.

In the midst of rising tensions with China in the South China Sea, Japan had also gradually increased relationships with other like-minded regional says, most notably Vietnam and Malaysia, which likewise received coastal security assistance from Tokyo. & nbsp,

Kishida invited the leaders of the Philippines and Malaysia to the 50th Anniversary of ASEAN-Japan Friendship and Cooperation summit in Tokyo in December as part of his most recent South Asian trip.

However, the Philippines— a friend US treaty ally strategically situated between the Western Pacific and the South China Sea — represents a significant award for Japan in many ways.

A new age in” authenticity geopolitics” was promised by Kishida during his keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last year. At the time, he declared that Japan” would be more vigilant than ever in tackling the problems and problems that face Japan, Asia, and the earth.”

Japan is expanding its network of military cooperation abroad in addition to bolstering its domestic defenses, with a particular emphasis on Southeast Asia, where Tokyo enjoys enormous grace.

Japan has consistently topped the list of ASEAN’s preferred external partners among regional thought leaders in annual surveys conducted by the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies( ISEAS ) in Singapore.

This is particularly true in the Philippines, where Japan is regarded as an” all-weather ally” that has benefited the economy more than any other country and is now exploring military cooperation like never before.

Kishida announced a number of new agreements during his meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos in an effort to forge an incredibly detailed partnership. These agreements included construction, mining, the environment, natural resources, and tourism.

Japan, which is already constructing Manila’s first train among other multi-billion money jobs, also vowed to support system enhancement under the guidance of a High Level Joint Committee on Infrastructure Development and Economic Cooperation. & nbsp,

The author was informed by a senior Chinese cabinet member that Japan is also looking into significant manufacturing investments that could possibly make the Philippines the center of the region’s automotive industry.

In the direction of a multilateral alignment

In order to improve the Southeast Asian country’s maritime domain awareness capacity compared to China, Kishida also formally unveiled the Official Security Assistance( OSA ) of Japan, which will start with a$ 4 million grant to equip the Philippine Navy with coastal radar systems.

In order to improve its maritime safety features, Japan is even anticipated to supply at least five additional 97-meter-long vessels for the PCG.

Yet, this is probably just the beginning of the ice. A Reciprocal Access Agreement ( RAA) to” further strengthen defense cooperation between the two countries” was also finalized by the parties.

The Visiting Forces Agreement-style deal will probably facilitate also larger and more powerful joint military exercises once finalized, with Spanish parliamentary ratification, as well as the transfer of more advanced weapons systems to be primarily aimed at China.

On December 11, 2022, commanders from the US, Japan, and the Philippines pose at Camp Asaka in Japan. Twitter Screengrab / Stars and Stripes image

We are aware of the advantages of having this structure to our defense and military personnel as well as to maintaining peace and stability in our area, Marcos Jr. boldly declared in front of his Chinese host.

Given that Japan and the Philippines are close to Taiwan, the two factors also made it clear that they were committed to forming a de facto multilateral alignment with the US.

Japan believes that assistance from ASEAN countries, particularly the Philippines, is essential to preventing any potential Chinese dynamic action against the autonomous democratic island that Beijing views as a rebellious province that needs to be” reunified” with the island.

Both sides’ foreign and defence ministers directly” understood the importance of each country’s individual treaty alliance with the United States and that of enhancing cooperation with local partner countries” last year.

A Japan-Philippines-US ( JAPUS) trilateral alliance would likely be the logical next strategic move after Manila gave the US Pentagon access to valuable bases close to Taiwan’s southern shores and started looking into a VFA-style deal with Tokyo.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian at @ Richeyarian on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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Invisible for a reason

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On Thursday night, a close friend of ours invited us to see Invisible Nation at Stanford University. It was an opportunity to meet up with an ancient friend and accept the invitation to the organizers’ light breakfast. All of the backpacks had been consumed by the time we arrived. On a list of failures, it came first. & nbsp,

The video Invisible Nation, which is being screened all over the US, is billed as being about Taiwan. A documentary film is expected to inform and instruct audiences by providing unadulterated details and allowing them to reach their own conclusions in accordance with conventional media standards. The name” video” is mocked by Invisible Nation. It is an outright confirmation of Taiwan as a design democracy and an unrestrained adoration of Tsai Ing-wen.

InvisibleNation has several flaws, most of which are caused by deliberate omissions of personal data and background.

The movie claims that the only period one government had control over both mainland China and Taiwan was from 1945 to 1949 and that Taiwan’s story began with the French conquest of the area. After World War II, Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang( KMT ) reclaimed Taiwan, and their brief rule came to an end when he was forced to flee to Taiwan from the mainland.

This is deceptive as best and blatantly false at worst.

Koxinga, Taiwan’s conqueror, is not mentioned in the story.

Koxinga, also known as Zheng Chenggong, the later Ming Dynasty ruler who resisted the Manchus’ seizure of mainland China and fled to Taiwan by driving the Dutch off the island, is not mentioned in the movie. The grandson of Zheng gradually gave himself up to Beijing’s Qing imperial court. Taiwan remained a part of China for many centuries after that, but in 1895, the Beijing government was forced to cede Taiwan to Japan after losing the lake battle to that country.

The Potsdam Declaration, drafted by the Allies and containing the conditions of Japan’s absolute yielding to China during World War II, is also not mentioned by InvisibleNation.

The United States insisted on recognizing Taiwan as a part of China throughout the battle. Jimmy Carter and every other American president since then have reiterated this acknowledgment, which persisted when Richard Nixon visited China in 1972.

The movie did effectively credit Lee Teng-hui‘s actions for the social turn away from the oppressive rule of the Republican government. The child of Chiang Kai-shek, who oversaw the retreat from the island to Taiwan in 1949, was succeeded by Lee in 1988. In 1978, the child assumed leadership and started liberalizing and loosening the island’s grip. Lee was a Taiwanese native, so he chose Lee to get his vice president.

Lee even went by the Japanese name Iwasato Masao, which Chiang was probably aware of. In fact, Lee / Iwasato, a native Japanese speaker, was known to confide in visiting Japanese dignitaries that his allegiance was more to Japan than to China.

In truth, his older brother was a part of the Imperial Japanese Army who died in battle during World War II. His name is listed among other combat dead, including some convicted war criminals, in the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo.

Some Japanese people remained in Taiwan after World War II. They adopted Foreign names and assimilated into the neighborhood culture. There hasn’t been much research done on the issue of divided loyalty and the impact of an estimated 100,000 Japanese who stayed with their posterity on Taiwan’s government.

Chen even failed to notice

In the case of Lee, after taking over as the head of the Taiwanese state, he gradually weakened and undermined the KMT firm, which allowed Taiwan to choose the Democratic Progressive Party as its first president and put an end to its 55-year rule.

However, Invisible Nation made no mention of Chen Shui-bian at all, despite the fact that he should have been prominently featured in the video.

In addition to becoming the first leader from the DPP, Chen also deftly divided and manipulated the opposition to become the only president to get with less than 40 % of the voting. Additionally, he was the first president of Taiwan to get imprisoned right away for willful problem at the end of his term in office.

One can hardly chastise the documentary’s director, Vanessa Hope, for omitting Chen from her narrative because he was the kind of leader who had discredit any democracy.

Chen ordered the revision of past books for students in addition to being a stain on Taiwan’s contemporary history. Any mention of Taiwan’s ties to China in terms of its history, culture, and cultural nature was eliminated in the revised books.

Fresh Chinese people grew up unaware that their grandparents did not appear out of thin air but rather traveled from southeastern Fujian across the Taiwan Strait for many years.

They were unaware that the Minnan accent of southern Fujian and the Taiwan slang sound nearly identical. They would be aware that the island was aware of the island abroad as early as the Han Dynasty, which began around 200 BCE, if they had the opportunity to study Chinese history.

It is understandable why the young hotheads who led the Sunflower rally in 2014 cried out for freedom but failed to recognize Taiwan’s reliance on trade with the mainland. Taiwan’s annual trade deficit with the island more than makes up for its global trade gap. That is a result of Beijing’s intentional decision to favor Taiwan over other countries.

Even though the Sunflower protesters weren’t as harsh as the Hong Kong ones in 2019, they still invaded the congress, insulted officially elected officials, and destroyed public property. All of this was documented in the mockery. What’s the big deal about breaking a few rules along the way, though, given that it was done in the name of defending politics?

Of course, not all young people in Taiwan are idiots. The smart great achievers are aware that the rapidly expanding island economy holds the key to their future. Some people work for Taiwanese businesses in China and reside on the island. Some people also work for Chinese businesses that are geographically owned.

It’s possible that the Sunflower kids don’t give a damn about careers, work, or the business. However, the serious-minded youth do.

a forward-thinking depiction of DPP

Obviously, Tsai Ing-wen, the current president of Taiwan, makes numerous comments and statements in the movie. Another influential people include her supporters and enthusiasts, as well as transgender government ministers. The movie boasts that Taiwan was the first country in Asia to identify same-sex marriage and defend LGBTQ right, demonstrating a progressive outlook that is even ahead of the US.

The movie also features a picture of former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s unexpected trip to Taiwan, which she made against all odds but to Tsai and the DPP’tortion. The meeting between Taiwan’s first sexual president and the most powerful person in Washington could not have gone any better.

Thank god InvisibleNation omitted the picture of Tsai giving Pelosi a beauty pageant sash. There was also no discussion of how Pelosi’s actions, which put Beijing on the defensive, significantly heightened cross-Strait conflicts and led to PLR challenges.

However, there were many people the directors could have spoken with but chose not to. On their perception of cross-Strit relations, they may have conducted interviews with Taiwanese who lived and worked on the mainland. The vast majority of Taiwanese people who favor the status quo, neither for union nor independence, could have been questioned. & nbsp,

Will the US actually come to fight alongside Taiwanese troops? was a question they may include posed to passersby about their opinions of Uncle Sam’s relationship. How do they think about Washington compel the Tsai government to purchase antiquated, archaic weapons?

What are their thoughts on being compelled to purchase contaminated meat from farmers in America? What do they think about President Joe Biden’s powerful Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company moving its cutting-edge chip factories to Arizona only to experience unavoidable labor issues, cost overruns, and building difficulties? Has Biden ever expressed any regard for Taiwan’s” reign”?

Taiwan is referred to as an” invisible nation” for a straightforward reason. Taiwan is a province of China, not at all an independent state. as easy as that

George Koo left a multinational consulting services company where he provided advice on business activities and China strategies for clients. He founded and previously served as managing chairman of International Strategic Alliances after receiving his education at MIT, Stevens Institute, and Santa Clara University. He currently serves on the board of Freschfield’s, a cutting-edge clean building program.

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India’s growing imperative to empower S Korea in Indo-Pacific

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The Indo-Pacific area is currently experiencing a prominent power struggle, which is somewhat characterized by China’s efforts to lessen the influence of the United States there. Concerns about regional security, as well as worries about South Korea’s sovereignty and autonomy, have been raised by the expanding economic and military footprint of China in the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea must strengthen its security infrastructure and improve its functions due to the growing Chinese military appearance near the Korean Peninsula. The South Korean government is under more stress as a result of the growing alliance between Russia, China, and North Korea, which has forced safety measures to be strengthened.

This new alliance even puts pressure on countries with similar passions, like the US, Japan, and India, to support South Korea.

Importantly, Beijing has begun to use the web of economic interdependence that China has created as South Korea’s main trading partner for its strategic goals. The ability of South Korea to combat China’s growing confidence in the Korean Peninsula is constrained by its prominent reliance on Chinese markets.

India’s proper essential to equip South Korea has gained significant fame in this dynamic geopolitical environment of the Korean Peninsula and the wider Indo-Pacific area.

This critical is brought on by the region’s rapidly shifting power dynamics, which are accentuated by Chinese dominance and pose serious threats to regional security and the sovereignty of not only South Korea but also many other smaller countries in the area.

Without endangering its own objectives, India never afford to ignore this transfer of power. India is extremely being compelled to play a crucial role in bolstering South Korea’s endurance due to its significant client status in the area of regional peace and security.

India’s growing effect in Korea

India has become a significant and influential player in the development of peace and stability in East Asia in recent years. Given its unique vantage point and ability to have a significant impact on the balance of power within the Korean Peninsula, India’s role in bolstering the political position of South Korea assumes significant significance.

India’s expanding presence in the area and its ability to implement a comprehensive and varied approach encompassing economic, cultural, military, diplomatic, and tactical dimensions serve to emphasize this significance.

It is crucial to understand that the preservation of peace and stability within the larger Indian Ocean place is inextricably linked to the stability of the Korean Peninsula. Any noticeable change in the power dynamics on the Korean Peninsula did unavoidably affect the larger Indo-Pacific area and its overall balance of power.

India is under increasing pressure to develop an all-encompassing economic and security strategy given that China primarily uses a combination of military and economic tools to enhance its corporate objectives. In order to maintain the status quo on the Korean Peninsula, this approach aims to fully leverage South Korea’s economic, military, social, and diplomatic ties to China.

Financial hedging

The urgent need is to lessen South Korea’s significant emphasis on the Chinese market for its goods given the proper use of trade and investment by China as tools of policy. In response, India is compelled to implement targeted import incentives geared toward the promotion of Vietnamese goods, with a focus on lessening South Korea’s reliance on Chinese markets for particular goods.

These actions are intended to support the foreign policy stance of the current Seoul authority.

Significantly, North Korean commercial enterprises find themselves seriously entangled in the importation of essential high-tech organic materials from China, which limits South Korea’s ability to make decisions about its foreign and security policies on its own.

India & nbsp must address this issue as a crucial part of its comprehensive economic strategy for South Korea’s empowerment. Growth of sources for vital organic materials and technologies represents a crucial step in preserving South Korea’s protection and independence.

A growing number of North Korean firms are thinking about moving away from the Chinese island due to a variety of geopolitical and economic factors. However, the high cost of such evictions presents a significant challenge for some.

India should extend incentives and concessions as part of its developing monetary strategy to make it easier for Asian businesses to move from their well-established manufacturing hubs in mainland China to alternate locations in Southeast Asia and India.

Korean businesses may be motivated to think about moving to India if the financial difficulties brought on by these relocations are properly addressed, possibly through the implementation of tailored packages.

India is relevant because of the obvious slowdown in South Korea’s economic growth, which has serious economic and geopolitical ramifications that affect regional security.

It is India’s responsibility to considerably increase its monetary assistance to Korea through a wide range of channels in order to revitalize and stabilize the North Korean economy. As a result, it is crucial for the American government to implement an incentive plan that is specifically tailored to the interests of American businesses.

With the specific aim of promoting investments in North Korean businesses, this system should include both technical expertise and financial assistance. Stabilizing the Vietnamese economy is the initiative’s main goal, which also helps to advance local harmony, stability, and security.

government support

India must pay close attention to enhancing South Korea’s military capabilities in addition to strengthening its financial resilience, a task that is being accentuated by the growing defense prowess of China.

There is currently a pervasive misconception in American legislation circles that the US and South Korea’s strong military alliance eliminates the need for additional contributions. This perception, however, belies a more nuanced reality, where the United States is constrained by specific restrictions in its ability to give South Korea complete support.

In light of this historical context, India has a responsibility to strengthen its military ties with South Korea, highlighting its increased dedication to joint naval exercises, intelligence-sharing mechanisms, and the exchange of cutting-edge protection technologies. Like joint efforts may significantly improve South Korea’s protection capabilities and readiness.

Given India’s reputation as a country known for its expanding indigenous defense capabilities, the idea of transferring developed defense technology to South Korea merits careful consideration, especially in areas where Korea currently has relative shortages, such as long-range missile systems, marine warfare technologies, electronic warfare capability, and space warfare technology.

Maritime assistance

Local peace and stability are being seriously threatened by China’s increasing naval hostility in the area, particularly the South China Sea and its surrounding regions. Given that the majority of its business passes through the sea lanes in this region, Korea has a sizable play in the free and open Indo-Pacific region.

It is essential for India to give Korea the tools it needs to resist Chinese naval aggression and influence because Korea is extremely susceptible to Chinese pressure and possible blackmail in this area.

The two nations are now working together in a constructive way. India needs to do more to help Korea, though, given the extent of Taiwanese confidence. The peace and current situation in this region are essential to Korea’s financial stability, so in the coming weeks, the Taiwanese political and military leadership may be tempted to use this area to put pressure on Korea.

South Korea has recently been looking to expand its influence in the Indian Ocean. India may assist these initiatives, especially those involving the presence of the North Korean navy, which can help India balance China in the Bay of Bengal and the surrounding areas.

Through a variety of channels, India needs to support the South Vietnamese Navy in the Indian Ocean more actively, promoting participation and maritime security. India may improve combined naval exercises in the Indian Ocean with the North Korean Navy, giving them valuable exposure and practice. These exercises may encourage cooperation, information sharing, and fostering trust between the two navies.

India’s expertise in carrying out anti-piracy activities in the Indian Ocean may be useful for protecting South Korean shipping lanes and ensuring the security of sea roads used by Korea for business.

To improve their abilities and knowledge in fields like anti-submarine warfare, coastal surveillance, and search and rescue operations, India should expand training programs for North Korean marine personnel.

Closer ties can be fostered by South Korean naval vessels making more frequent interface visits to American ports. Discussions about marine protection and the potential for mutual marine operations in the event of emergencies on the Korean Peninsula and nearby areas could be included in these visits, which may increase in frequency.

In order to exchange marine intelligence and provide real-time information on sea conditions, probable threats, and security situations, the two nations should strengthen their mechanisms.

Support for cyber security and cross war

China is increasingly using digital and hybrid warfare as tools to increase its regional effect. India must therefore concentrate on enhancing Korea’s strategic capabilities in the areas of security and cross warfare.

India and South Korea should work together on security and techniques to counter non-traditional threats given China’s expertise in computer war and cross tactics. This partnership may aid in defending both countries from China’s destructive actions.

In order to maintain regional balance and counter China’s forceful habits, India and South Korea should simultaneously develop and carry out initiatives in the Indo-Pacific region.

Interpersonal influence

South Korea is now dealing with a wide range of complex local social issues, including demographic aging, mental health problems, and declining birth rates. These inner conflicts not only weaken South Korea’s social structure but also limit its ability to successfully manage the physical difficulties brought on by the continuous energy interactions between the United States and China.

India had not ignore the inside schisms and difficulties afflicting South Korea in its power as a key stakeholder committed to the survival of local peace and stability. India has the capacity to offer priceless insights and assistance mechanisms aimed at overcoming these internal challenges because it is endowed with a politically different environment and an abundance of varied experiences.

It is crucial to emphasize how South Korea’s capacity to take on a more forceful role in creating an entirely new, rules-based security framework within the region is essential to the resolution of these home issues.

As a result, India should pay close attention to bolstering South Korea’s inside social stability as part of its overall effort to empower the country.

improving Korea’s sweet energy

The expansion of South Korea’s soft energy represents a circle in which India may pay particular attention outside of the realms of economic, cultural, and military impact.

Through social exchanges, informative initiatives, and tourism, South Korea’s soft power is being developed, which has the potential to strengthen ties between the country and its neighbors and support India’d regional diplomatic efforts.

India is in a good position to support South Korea’s effective participation in international forums like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the United Nations, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. With such assistance, South Korea’s position within the region could be considerably improved, making it a significant participant in the emerging rule-based world order.

In order to counter China’s autocratic influence, India may join forces with South Korea in promoting democratic values and human rights in the area.

India also has the ability to intensify efforts to support Seoul’s initiatives to increase North Korean effect in the area. This includes supporting Korea’s initiatives for talks and negotiations with countries in Southeast Asia and Africa as well as the development of political ties to help the area establish a rules-based order.

In this situation, joint initiatives between India, South Korea, Japan, and the United States may become crucial tools for achieving local security and advancing a common set of political principles.

Conclusion

American policymakers must sincerely understand the gravity of the changing condition taking place on the Korean Peninsula and acknowledge that South Korea’s response to internal and external stresses will have a profound impact on every aspect of local life in the area.

A prolonged and comprehensive commitment that combines various facets, including financial, social, military, political, and strategic dimensions, is required to empower South Korea. India is tasked with the complex tracking of the political landscape while being aware of its own interests and working together with other regional countries to strengthen local stability and security.

India must demonstrate a thorough understanding of the complex dynamics underpinning the Korean economy and society in the wake of President Yoon & nbsp, Suk Yeol’s advocacy for an active and influential role for South Korea within the global spheres of geopolitics and economics, with an emphasis on the associated security implications.

Strategically important goals include the upkeep of the status quo within the Korean Peninsula and the protection of a healthy energy balance.

India’s growing economic and security cooperation with South Korea serves as an example for other countries dealing with similar safety conundrums. As a result, the proper paradigm of India may take into account factors related to economic, cultural, and secure facets, with the ultimate goal of bringing about North Korean empowerment.

India and South Korea are celebrating the gold anniversary of their diplomatic ties, so now is the perfect time for India to come up with a fresh, all-inclusive plan that strengthens its relationships with the country and the larger regional community.

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Fusion Diary: the spherical tokamak story

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This is the third installment in Asia Times’ Science Editor Jonathan Tennenbaum’s series “Fusion Diary.” For an introduction to the series, readers are encouraged to start with “US abandoning its leadership in fusion energy,” by Matthew Moynihan and Alfred B Bortz. Then read part 1 of the series here and part 2 here.

In its national program to build a prototype fusion power plant, Britain has decided upon a reactor type that differs radically from the conventional tokamak design, exemplified by JET and giant ITER. Instead, the UK is placing its main bet on the so-called spherical tokamak.

In the spherical tokamak, the fat central column of a conventional tokamak is replaced by a narrow post, giving the vacuum chamber a roughly spherical form rather than the conventional doughnut-like shape. The 100-150 million-degree plasma inside behaves differently and there are big differences in the technical design of the reactor.

Why is the UK going against the mainstream in the fusion race? This has a fascinating history.

Like many of the alternative concepts in magnetic confinement fusion, the spherical tokamak was born in a US national lab. In the period 1982-87, fusion researchers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) hypothesized that a tokamak with a compact spherical form would be significantly more efficient, in terms of its ability to confine the hot plasma, than a conventional tokamak.

Let me explain briefly what the problem is.

As with an ordinary gas in a container, when we heat a plasma to ever higher temperatures, the pressure goes up. As one might imagine, even at the low densities employed in tokamaks, a 100 million-degree plasma will have a very strong tendency to expand.

The role of “container” is played in a tokamak by powerful magnetic fields that counteract the pressure exerted by the hot plasma, confining the plasma to the interior of the reactor chamber and keeping it away from the chamber walls.

How does this work? The particles constituting the plasma – rapidly moving electrons and ions – are electrically charged. According to the laws of electromagnetism, charged particles moving in a magnetic field will tend to spiral around the field lines and are thereby trapped by them to a greater or lesser extent. (Here is an elementary YouTube introduction to these concepts.)

Hot plasma in the spherical tokamak ST-40. Photo: Tokamak Energy

It turns out that to produce the field strengths needed to confine a plasma at 100-150 million degrees, the magnetic coils in a tokamak reactor must be run with electric currents of millions of amperes. This requirement imposes extremely severe engineering constraints on the reactor, and is a major factor in determining its cost and economic viability.

Needless to say, it would be a great advantage to be able to reduce the strength of the magnetic field needed to confine a plasma at a given density and temperature – or, alternatively, to increase the density and/or temperature of the plasma that can be confined using a given magnetic field strength.

In fusion science, the efficiency of confinement is commonly expressed in terms of a parameter called the “plasma beta,” which is technically proportional to the ratio of the plasma pressure to the square of the magnetic field strength. Reactor designers endeavor to make beta as large as possible.

Not surprisingly, the value of beta depends on a great many factors. Unlike the molecules of a gas in a bottle, where the molecules move around and bump into each other in random fashion, the ions and electrons constituting the plasma whizz around the toroidal vacuum chamber in a complicated pattern of spiraling trajectories.

It should thus be no surprise to find that the shape of the vacuum chamber has a major impact on the possible patterns of particle motions, and thereby also on the ability of the reactor to confine the plasma.

Analyzing these relationships is a very difficult physics problem.

Comparison between spherical and toroidal geometries. Note: In the diagram here the aspect ratio of the toroid is greatly exaggerated compared with actual tokamaks. Image: T M Wilks, DIII-D National Fusion Facility

In 1982-1987 the plasma physicists Alan Sykes, Martin Peng and Dennis Strickler, working at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, calculated that higher values of beta could be reached by greatly reducing the so-called aspect ratio of the vacuum chamber – the lengthwise radius of the toroid divided by its cross-section radius. Their studies also indicated that the plasma would behave better if the cross-section of the chamber were made oval – or D-shaped.

The result is an overall spherical – or apple-like – shape with a narrow column in the center.

Why would the spherical shape work better?

The analysis is complicated. Asked for a simple intuitive explanation, a physicist I spoke with told me that in the spherical tokamak, the magnetic field lines wind tightly around the narrow central column, holding particles there for relatively long periods before their spiral trajectories carry them toward the outside region and quickly back in again. The longer sojourn of the particles in the inner region, as opposed to the outer region, adds up to a more effective confinement of the plasma.

Creating a tokamak with a spherical shape poses major challenges, however. In a conventional tokamak, the bulk of the external magnetic field is provided by identical ring-shaped vertical coils equally spaced around the vacuum chamber.

JET has 32 of them. These flat coils all bunch together in the middle of the device, taking up a lot of room. In addition there must be space in the middle for the central solenoid coil, needed to drive current through the plasma.  

In 1984, Martin Peng came up with an elegant solution: to replace the closed-ring magnets with half-rings sharing a single conducting rod in the middle of the reactor. (As I understand, in later practice the toroidal coils are closed but wedge-shaped along the central axis, fitting together to form a narrow column.)

Left: Original cutaway diagram of Spherical Torus Experiment (STX), proposed in 1986 but never built. Image: Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Right: Cutaway diagram of the ST-40 spherical tokamak, a unit built and operated by the Tokamak Energy company today Image: Tokamak Energy

Martin Peng proposed building a first spherical tokamak, christened STX, at Oak Ridge. The cost of this small first device was estimated at about US$6 million. Coming at a time when the US fusion budget was undergoing drastic cuts, the STX proposal was rejected. The spherical tokamak idea subsequently “emigrated” to Culham, England, with Peng accompanying it.

Peng had met with significant resistance from plasma physicists who thought his idea was crazy. But the directors at Culham gave Peng the green light to build a small spherical tokamak using mainly spare components left over from other experiments. The whole project cost only about $125 000, a minuscule amount even for a small tokamak experiment.

Left: Original study led by Martin Peng on the potential advantages of a spherical tokamak (1985).  Right: The START reactor at Culham with its leading scientists (1991). Images: Tokamak Energy

In 1991, after two years of construction time, the world’s first spherical tokamak, START (“Small Tight Aspect Ratio Tokamak”), began operation. The whole device was only about two meters across.

START’s performance exceeded all expectations. START achieved a beta value more than three times that of any conventional tokamak. It also showed superior plasma stability and other favorable features. Laboratories around the world rushed to build small spherical tokamaks, including even countries not well-known for their fusion research, including Australia, Brazil, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Pakistan and Turkey.

START operated until 1998. In the meantime, the revolutionary results with START immediately suggested building a larger spherical tokamak with higher fields, higher plasma currents, more powerful heating systems and other features providing for a broader scope of investigations.

This became the Multi-Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) at Culham. The volume of the MAST plasma was three times larger than in START, but three times smaller than in the JET reactor.

MAST operated from 1999 until 2013. It confirmed the results of START, demonstrating a number of additional advantages of the spherical tokamak and providing a large store of knowledge and experience for further devices.

In the same year as MAST, a similar reactor went into operation in the United States, called the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX). Situated at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, NSTX is still operating successfully today. It has further confirmed the high beta and other advantages of the spherical tokamak.

Left:  CAD drawing of US National Spherical Torus Experiment. Image: NSTX. Right: NSTX in operation at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. Image: Wikipedia / PPL

In view of the successes of the spherical tokamak experiments, it was decided in Culham to upgrade MAST into a device with greater heating power, plasma current, magnetic field and pulse length. Most urgently, however, MAST-U was to provide a first-ever platform to test a revolutionary design for the so-called divertor, called the “Super-X divertor.”

MAST-U spherical tokamak reactor at the Culham Centre for Fusion Energy. Photo: UK Atomic Energy Agency

As I explained in an earlier article, the divertor is a key component in any tokamak reactor; it provides the means to remove, continuously, impurities from the plasma, as well as helium ions produced by the fusion reactions (frequently referred to as the fusion “ash”). At the same time, the divertor removes a substantial portion of the heat energy generated by the fusion process.

The divertor is a slot-like structure, installed at the lower (and sometimes also the upper) extreme of the chamber. The magnetic field is configured in such a way, that a thin stream of plasma is effectively “scrapped off” the core of the plasma and directed at a set of metal “target” plates, where the plasma is neutralized into a gas and pumped away. At the same time, fresh DT fuel can be injected into the reactor, renewing the plasma.     

The main problem with divertors comes from the fact, that the target plates are in direct contact with the 100-150 million-degree plasma, and exposed to intense bombardment by neutrons and other “hot” particles.

The divertor plates must withstand an overall energy flux 10 or more times larger than the heat shields of space capsules during reentry into the atmosphere. While reentry lasts only minutes, the divertor plates must last for periods of at least months, preferably years, before being replaced.

The lifetimes of the divertors will be a significant factor in the economic viability of future tokamak fusion power plants.

The Super-X divertor design promises to drastically reduce the heat and power load on the divertor plates. With the help of additional magnetic coils, Super-X bends the pathway taken by the plasma, making it travel a longer distance before striking the target plates. This gives the plasma the chance to cool down significantly before contact occurs. There are other important differences, relative to conventional designs, that I cannot go into here.

During my August visit to Culham, I had the opportunity to speak with a young scientist working on the design of Super-X divertors for MAST-U. I learned that there are many variations on the Super-X concept, involving different configurations of the plates, magnetic coils and field strengths. Finding the optimal ones is a major task. MAST-U was explicitly designed for trying out various divertor designs.  

Like all the other reactor designs being pursued in the fusion race, the spherical tokamak design has its advantages and disadvantages. One cannot be sure at this point which one will ultimately come out ahead.

Britain is currently betting on the spherical tokamak, having chosen this design as the basis for the UK national program to build the first electricity-producing fusion reactor. Hence the name Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production (STEP).

In his interview with me — to be published as the next installment of this series – STEP Director Paul Methven emphasizes that Britain will continue to participate in the ITER project, a giant tokamak of the conventional type, while also supporting a variety of alternative approaches to both magnetic and inertial confinement fusion. I shall report about one of the most exciting of those alternatives later in this series.     

Regardless of who wins the current fusion race, I am convinced that in the future fusion energy will take many forms and will involve a variety of reactor types, even more so than has been the case for fission.

NEXT: An Apollo program for fusion

Jonathan Tennenbaum, PhD (mathematics), is a former editor of FUSION magazine and has written on a wide variety of topics in science and technology, including several books on nuclear energy.

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