China calculates impact of losing most favored nation status – Asia Times

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If the United States revokes its previous status as the most favored nation ( MFN), permanent normal trade relations ( PNTR ), China is expected to experience a 3.4 % deflationary pressure. &nbsp,

Since Donald Trump’s win in the Republican presidential election on November 5 and his pledge to raise taxes on all imported Chinese goods to 60 %, Beijing’s worries about losing its Nafta status have grown. &nbsp,

The Restoring Trade Fairness Act, which calls for the end of China’s PNTR, was introduced on November 14th, adding to the already-graved controversy.

According to Moolenaar, the US Congress voted to grant China PNTR status in 2000 in the hopes that it would deregulate and follow good trading techniques, but” this gamble failed.”

” Our country has been deposed by our country, our manufacturing base has eroded, and our most important adversary has lost work,” says PNTR. He claimed that the CCP has also abused our markets and violated the hopes for liberty and fair rivals that were present when the totalitarian regime was granted the PNTR more than 20 years ago.

The Neither Permanent nor Standard Trade Relations Act was introduced by Democratic Senators Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, and Josh Hawley on September 26. Trump announced Rubio as the next US secretary of state on November 13. Rubio is likely to get Senate verification and started his phrase after Trump’s January 20, 2025, opening.

One of the most disastrous selections our nation has ever made was to provide Communist China the same business benefits that we do to our greatest allies,” Rubio said in a media release from September. ” Our government’s trade deficit with China more than quadrupled, and we exported millions of American jobs. Ending ordinary trade relations with China is a no-brainer”.

Three scenarios&nbsp,

In October, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, a state-owned brokerage company, commissioned Infinite-Sum Modeling, a Shenzhen-based discussing company, to do research on conceivable US tax hikes against Chinese products.

” If the US revokes China’s MFN status, it will impose an average of more than 60 % tariffs on Chinese goods”, calculating from the facts that the US imposes” an average 42 % tariff for non MFNs, and there is an additional 20 % Section 301 tariff against Chinese products”, Zhao Wei, chief economist of Shenwan Hongyaun, writes in a research report.

He claims that 48 % of US imports of Chinese goods have stopped being subject to the low MFN tariff after a trade war started in 2018. He quotes a report from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, which states that the average tariff on Chinese goods was 19.3 % in June 2023, up from about 2.3 % in 2018. &nbsp,

If a new business war breaks out between China and the US, Shenwan Hongyuan created financial projections for three cases:

  • 1. The US imposes a 60 % tax on Chinese goods,
  • 2. The US imposes a 60 % tariff on Chinese goods, and a 10 % tariff on all other imported goods,
  • 3. The US imposes a 60 % tariff on Chinese goods, and a 10 % tariff on all other imported goods, while China retaliates with a 60 % tariff against American goods.
Impact of Sino-US trade war
Credit: Asia Times

The US would be able to reduce its trade deficit under all three cases, but it would also experience from slower home use and economic expansion. &nbsp,

Zhao explains that the US would prefer scenario 2 or 3, where its GDP may decline significantly over that of China. &nbsp,

In an article published on November 15, a Jiangsu-based critic who uses the pseudonym” Beibei” claims that if China’s Import position is voided by the US, Sino-US business relations and global supply chains will suffer significantly. &nbsp,

” If this actually happens, tax barriers will substantially increase, resulting in a plummeting of the deal between China and the US, Beibei says”. Orders will shrink and costs will rise for several Chinese exporters. Some small-and-medium-sized businesses may also face risks of debt.”

The journalist claims that by concentrating more on local businesses and some Belt and Road nations, China will be able to overcome these obstacles. She claims that Chinese companies could also benefit from this opportunity to move from labor-intensive to knowledge-based industries and increase the value of their goods. &nbsp,

She adds that rising costs and potential supply chain disruptions may harm US businesses. She claims that prices will rise for US suppliers and customers who rely on high-quality, low-cost Chinese products.

Since Trump won the election, the Chinese foreign government has so far refused to comment on potential US tax excursions and called the subject” speculative. ” &nbsp,

Foreign envoy to the US, Xie Feng, stated in a Hong Kong conference on November 15 that cooperation between China and the US has never been a zero-sum sport. &nbsp,

He claimed that 70 000 US businesses can generate US$$ 50 billion in China with the bilateral trade of more than US$ 660 billion annually. He added that Chinese goods may lower American customers ‘ costs of living.

The Asia Times has Yong Jian as a source. He is a Chinese blogger who specializes in Chinese technologies, economy and politics. &nbsp,

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Europe must pre-empt Ukraine sell-out, tsunami of Trump tariffs – Asia Times

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The wonder of the American national election was how fast the results were made public, and newly elected president-elect Donald Trump has kept that unpredictability by announcing government choices. Except for those who had hoped vainly that he would be more reasonable in terms of government than he was in terms of campaigning, those choices have not been unexpected. They will then place a lot of pressure on Europe to adapt and respond, and they will do so quickly.

This aims to introduce Europe’s greatest failure while highlighting what, at least in the rare instances, results in such supremacy for a single political party and individual. In a system of the European Union intentionally designed to prevent one nation or person from becoming the strong, Europe moves slowly and by bargain. America’s national state can be far more significant.

Despite Ursula von der Leyen being re-elected as president on July 18, there is still no confirmation from the European Union that a new Western Commission is in place. Even more important, however, is failure in Germany and France: Germany’s Olaf Scholz faces a no-confidence ballot on December 16, paving the way to early general elections on February 23, France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, is battling to find his 2025 resources passed by a deeply divided National Assembly.

Obviously, the speed of Trump’s visits is largely misleading. He is making his judgments sooner than he did in 2016, but electorates are still unable to fill those positions until January 20 and beyond, or until their meetings have been confirmed by Senate votes. Trump’s desires for a smoother process may not be as good.

Trump’s Republican Party now holds a clear majority in the Senate, but his controversial choices of a malevolent nationalist, Congressman Matt Gaetz, as solicitor general, of an incompetent Fox News TV presenter, Pete Hesgeth, as secretary of defense, and of extremist Putin-sympathizer Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence may all experience opposition from more modest Republican Senators. Trump’s nomination of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of health and human services is now on his list of consciously defamatory choices, which in effect challenge moderate Republicans to support him.

The new Commission is still awaiting action because the new European Commission are presently having their own assurance trials in the European Parliament. Officials may create emergency plans in response to Trump’s upcoming challenges, particularly in regards to business, security, and Ukraine. But without social management, those plans may be cast into question.

Solid governments that anticipate remaining in power for a while, similar to the total European response to Mario Draghi’s proposals to boost European competitiveness in July, will be required. Politicians who are shrouded in the support of their own political turmoil may also make some quick decisions.

Most importantly, the Scholz government, in its last weeks in office before the confidence vote, may make actions towards helping Ukraine strengthen its bargaining location, safe in the knowledge that such activities may be supported by the center-right criticism. The center-right Christian Democrats ‘ leader, Friedrich Merz, has long supported Ukraine, but he may also support a swift resolution with Scholz that assumes responsibility for such a decision, reducing the chance that it will spark controversy during the election.

Although Keir Starmer, the newly elected prime minister, is unopposed in the United Kingdom, it may be persuaded to back a decision by Scholz and Merz to send more weapons to Ukraine and, in particular, to permit Ukraine to use those weapons for long-range strikes against Russia. Long-range missile strikes into Russia would have the best chance of thwarting an imminent major Russian offensive that will attempt to retake control of the land held by Ukrainian forces since August in the Kursk region.

Trump’s biggest trade challenge wo n’t be until after January 20, but Europe should be prepared to impose a 10 % or 20 % tariff on its exports to the United States within his first few days in office. Awkwardly, that will fall during the German election campaign. But Scholz

This article, published on Bill Emmott’s Global View, is the English original of an article published in Italian by La Stampa. It is republished with permission.

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Islamic scholar hits Hamas with fatwa over October 7 attack – Asia Times

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A Palestinian Islamic scholar has issued a legal edict to denounce Hamas ‘ assault on Israel on October 7, 2023. The actions of Hamas were condemned by the Salaman al-Dayah Fatwa because they caused damage to Israeli and Gazan civilians and violated Muslim principles that govern jihad.

The name” jihad” is applied to the spiritual struggle for self-improvement, as well as military combat. In times of conflict, jihad rules strictly prohibit damage to civilians, including women and children.

According to reports from BBC News, Dayah has connections to the Salafi action in Gaza and is one of the country’s most revered religious authorities. A branch of Islam called Salafism aspires to imitate the ways the Prophet Mohammed and his supporters practice. Dayah appears to be a pragmatist from the Salafism’s “quietist” custom, which shuns social engagement.

However, Dayah has a history of intermediate in politics. He criticized the Hamas-brokered organization The Army of Islam for the abduction of English BBC blogger Alan Johnston in a judgment in 2007. He eventually chaired the spiritual intervention council that secured Johnston’s release.

More recently, in May 2024, Dayah signed an open letter calling for opposition against the Jewish loss of Arab institutions. Despite the devastation and forced removal of numerous residents by Israeli troops, accounts suggest he still resides in northeastern Gaza.

For at least three factors, this judgment is important. Second, the ruling suggests divided mind about Hamas’s steps among Gaza’s people of 2.2 million. Next, the judgment is the most recent attempt by well-known Islamic scholars to create a counterterrorism strategy grounded in religious instruction. Third, the criticism of the September 7 attacks raises the question of whether criticism of Hamas, a group that is considered a criminal by the US and UK governments, could undermine efforts to bring justice and wealth to all Palestinians.

Within the 5.2 million people of Gaza and the West Bank, over 99 % of Muslims identify as Sunni. Sunnis are Islam’s largest religion, making up between 84 % and 87 % of the worldwide Muslim community.

Not even 1 % of Muslims in Gaza and the West Bank identify as Shia, the second-largest denomination, which makes up around 10 % to 13 % of all Muslims globally. These populations are crucial: Despite the overwhelming majority of Palestinians being Sunni, Hamas receives financial and military aid from Iran, a Shia-majority land. Iran is home to around one-third of the country’s Shia Muslims.

Dayah, as a Salafi, is part of the larger Sunni traditions. His judgment may be related to his attempt to restate Sunnism or Salafism in Gaza by dividing the country’s citizens over their help for Hamas and its relationships to Shia-ruled Iran.

The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research ( CPSR ) think tank’s findings provide insight into the existence of these divisions. Although the situation is complicated and unexpected, one statistic jump out when asked in September 2024 whether Hamas had committed the crimes against Israelis that the international media covered, including the death of women and children, 89 % of residents of the Gaza Strip and West Bank responded that it had not. Only 8 % said it did.

Positive attitudes are declining in spite of this idea, and while some Hamas supporters still have strong support among Gaza’s residents. In accordance with the same survey, 39 % of Hamas’s decision to launch its October 7 offensive had fallen to 39 % by September, compared to 71 % in March 2024. 80 % of people in that quarter said at least one family member had been injured or killed while 85 % said they had moved “from one house to another” between two and six days.

Asked who will emerge victorious, 28 % of Gazans said Hamas, 25 % thought Israel, and 45 % replied “none of them”. Hamas ‘ support for continuing to rule Gaza decreased from 46 % in June 2024 to 36 % in September, and 37 % of Gazans think the organization will retain control of the area after the war.

In Gaza, there have been a few sporadic accounts of “despise” Hamas supporters who are too afraid to speak up. The BBC reported that Hamas was causing a sizable open outcry in July 2024.

The difficulties of Hamas criticism

Dayah’s judgment builds on earlier attempts by renowned Islamic scholars to create theories rooted in Islamic teaching.

In 2010, Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri– a popular Pakistani professor and spiritual leader – published a 600-page Fatwa on Terrorism and Suicide Bombings. Qadri’s text is an emphatic attack on assault and terrorism. Qadri items to the strict prohibition against the loss of places of worship and other structures in the wake of World War II, as well as Dayah.

The Global Imams Council, which holds Hamas “directly responsible for the deaths and suffering of all innocent lives lost since October 7 ), even issued a criticism of Hamas.

There are clear perceptions present. In the wake of October 7, UK officials from all functions were unfavorable to refer to Hamas as “terrorists.” On the other hand, the BBC has kept its rigid definition of “avoiding” the term.

Some see Hamas’s control of Gaza as a consequence of Israel’s employment of Israeli territory. António Guterres, UN secretary general, was critical of Hamas ‘ claim that the problems “did not take place in a vacuum” and that” the Arab people have been enduring stifling activity for 56 years.” Some criticize Hamas ‘ crimes, while not talking about Israel’s lack of proportion.

Regardless of where northern sympathies are, the fatwa and the behaviour of Gazans, as revealed by research data, serve as reminders that Muslim beliefs and beliefs do not coexist in a single unified block. Palestinians living in Gaza and different areas of the region obviously have a different viewpoint.

The Muslim idea of a global community – or “ummah” ‘ – is essential for millions of people. However, the data rejects the idea that Muslims can think and act in harmony everyday. These prejudices are most likely to promote harmful myths that can perpetuate prejudice in the Middle East and abroad.

Julian Hargreaves is a lecturer in the Department of Sociology and Criminology, City St George’s, University of London.

The Conversation has republished this essay under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post. Hamas is described by The Conversation as a violent Islamist organization and is referenced by the UK and US institutions as a terrorist organization.

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All the reasons Trump should fire the Fed’s Powell – Asia Times

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October’s jobs report helps clarify Donald Trump’s disaster electoral victory. For the first time since the post-Covid treatment, secret payments decreased.

American families, especially lower-income households, were crushed by inflation rates twice the officially reported levels. Nowadays, jobs are drying up. Standard readouts indicate that the economy is much worse than expected.

By awarding billion in so-called signal checks after the US market had now begun to recover from the 2020 Covid crisis, Biden set the worst inflation rate since the 1970s and probably since the US Civil War.

The Federal Reserve poured oil on the fire after pretending inflation was a problem for a year before jacked up interest charges. It should soon lower the federal funds rate by 2 percentage points, easing the burden on communities and the expenditure.

Graphic: Asia Times

Government statisticians claim that higher private use is to blame for the US economy’s continued expansion, but investment in both businesses and homes has remained stagnant. The American public did n’t buy the official version, because it just is n’t so.

Graphic: Asia Times

Somehow, Americans have managed to increase “real personal consumption expenditures” ( the calculation of consumption in the gross national product series ) without buying anything.

True financial profits, as reported by the Census Bureau, have been falling since 2021, while private consumption keeps rising. The actual retail sales report’s and the private consumption estimate’s are the largest ever gap ever found.

The US market is much weaker than federal researchers state, which is the most likely reason and one that corresponds to the experience of most American families. Private consumption is significantly lower and inflation-adjusted use is significantly higher.

So, Trump may now be living in a crisis as a result of the Biden administration. And it is continually being given by the Federal Reserve.

The current prices is NOT the result of excessive credit generation, as opposed to the prices of the 1970s. According to the Bank for International Settlements, which releases weekly data through March 2024, the US personal sector’s complete record has decreased over the past few years.

Biden’s campaign to pay voters with massive subsidies contributed to this inflation.

Graphic: Asia Times

When the cost of higher interest payments to American homes is added in, Lawrence Summers, the Treasury Secretary for Barack Obama and Lawrence Summers, the former president of Harvard University, calculated prices at 18 % in 2022. It still rises to 8 % today.

Graphic: Asia Times

Credit card debt outstanding exploded after Covid, rising from about$ 800 billion to nearly$ 1.1 trillion. Higher interest rates, however, were the actual kick. Between 2021 and 2023, the average interest rate on revolving credit increased from 14 % to 22 %.

Graphic: Asia Times

When the interest charge on revolving credit is divided by the outstanding balance, it becomes clear that average home interest payments on credit accounts increased from about$ 100 billion in 2020 to approximately$ 225 billion in 2023.

The New York Federal Reserve’s study of consumer credit shows that past-due credit card balances now exceed 11 % of the full, the highest degree in 10 years, while criminal car loans are about 5 % of the total.

Graphic: Asia Times

Additionally, prices caused higher taxes on income earners by putting them in higher tax brackets. Personal income tax revenues increased significantly more quickly than the minimum GDP.

At the top of 2020 prices, US citizens were paying$ 400 billion a year more in federal income taxes than the level of GDP do had predicted.

Graphic: Asia Times

The Fed’s whipsaw is also the main cause of budget considerations. Interest obligations on federal loan doubled as a result of Biden’s spending spree and Fed’s excessive reaction.

Graphic: Asia Times

Jerome Powell, the main perpetrator of the monetary policy blunder, has declared that he wo n’t step down from office before 2026.

It’s not clear whether President Trump will be able to inspire Powell to left sooner. However, the President-elect needs to explain to the British people why they are in this mess and who was responsible for them.

Observe David P Goldman on X at @davidpgoldman

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Can Donald Trump stave off World War III? – Asia Times

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New appearance of North Vietnamese soldiers in Russia to combat Ukraine has sparked fears that a global World War III may be coming.

North Korea’s entrance into the issue is only one more part of the anti-Western empire that spans the Pacific Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. It includes China, Iran, and substitute armies it supports in Palestine, Lebanon, and Iraq as well as Russia and North Korea.

Each has an ambition to overthrow eight decades of power through what they see as a bloated but hostile West, and particularly leadership from the United States, which they believe is in decline.

Western researchers see Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a first step toward undermining the political West, along with North Korean soldiers ‘ membership.

” We’re in a pre-war period leading to international conflict, the most severe, the most risky and the most difficult we have had since World War II”, said Jack Keane, a retired US common who heads the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based consider container. In a television interview that aired last Sunday, he said,” I do think World War III is in the future.”

NATO’s Mark Rutter, who referred to a military danger that extends from the Pacific Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea on Tuesday, doubled down on his alarms.

” Russia, working together with North Korea, Iran and China, is not only disturbing Europe, it threatens peace and security—yes, here in Europe– but also in the Indo-Pacific and in North America”, he concluded in a speech read following a conference with French President Emanuel Macron.

As proof of the spreading harm, he pointed to disturbing recent events, specifically:

  • The exchange of Soviet missile technology to North Korea is a particular alarm for South Korea and Japan.
  • The Russian-Irani military alliance and markets, which include Russian payments of military robots from Iran, give the Islamic Republic money to pay “proxies” that “destabilize the Middle East” and “fund terrorism more afield”
  • China, in opposition to global sanctions, large cash purchases of Russian fossil fuel support Moscow’s local war-making sectors. Additionally, Beijing offers free elements for a variety of worn-out Russian military technology.

The NATO commander pleaded for allied unity to experience an anti-Western empire. ” We must stand together – Europe, North America and our international partners – to preserve our people healthy and prosperous”, Rutter said.

Rutter’s gathering cry obviously addressed European nations, whose support for Kyiv is declining. Under Donald Trump’s presidency, there is a particular interest and concern about US coverage.

Trump promised voters a kind of self-centered” America First” international policy, raising concerns if that limits continued aid for Ukraine. General Keane fears that hostile enemies have been fueled by creeping US protectionism.

” China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, who are cooperating, collaborating, coordinating up, consider that our management in the United States is poor, that we’ve lost the political will to fight them, much less get and combat them”, the withdrew US general said.

The West is not the only place to hear apocalyptic commentary. The possibility of a world war may have been underestimated, according to Zheng Yongnian, a foreign affairs analyst whose commentary frequently appears in official Chinese media.

” Looking at today’s situation, regional wars involving multiple countries, especially major powers, have already broken out, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict”, he added.

Zheng attributed the Middle East’s current turbulence to the West. ” While the wars in the Middle East have manifested themselves mainly as a conflict between Israel and Hamas, many other countries, especially the US, have become deeply involved”, he concluded.

This summer, Dmitri Medvedev, a Putin ally and former Russian president, warned NATO that providing military aid to Ukraine was ensuring that” World War III is getting closer”.

In any event, a lot has changed since Trump’s last turn inside the White House between 2017 and 2021. As US adversaries turn to war, Trump’s baffling issues have turned into tense disputes and even deadly hostilities.

Putin appears willing to continue the Ukraine war into Trump’s new term, despite certain estimates his forces have suffered around 610, 000 casualties. North Korean intervention in Ukraine is due in part to Russia’s need for fresh troops, observers surmise.

” Russia is desperate for manpower but wants to avoid a second mobilization, which would involve involuntary call-ups of Russian citizens”, wrote the Center for International and Strategic Studies, a Washington-based think tank.

” US officials estimate that Russia is recruiting 25, 000 to 30, 000 new soldiers a month, barely enough to keep pace with the reported daily casualty rate of 1, 000–or 30, 000 a month”, the influential think tank wrote.

Near Kursk, Russia’s border town, which Ukrainian forces unexpectedly overran this summer, have about 12 000 Korean soldiers gathered. The North Koreans are joining about 40, 000 Russian troops deployed for a counteroffensive. Beyond manpower, North Korea is also supplying weapons, including missiles.

According to the US-based Council on Foreign Relations,” North Korea sent eight million shells to Ukraine last year, as well as dozens of short-range missiles,” which will do much more to keep the Russian military afloat than a few thousand troops. ” Western supporters of Ukraine, by contrast, have struggled to match this provision of ammunition and weapons”.

Volodymyr Zelensky, the president of Ukraine, asserts that if his forces are given the necessary weapons, they will force Russia to leave. He also asks for permission to launch missiles at enemy forces deep inside Russia, begs the US to keep providing arms, and also for continued supply of weapons.

As the Ukraine war drags on, World War III discussions have gotten more frequent. Trump has said only that he will end the war “within 24 hours” of taking office next January, or even before, though he has n’t explained how.

Trump backs Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to bomb Iran, which was just launched in retaliation for Israeli missile attacks that have previously targeted Israel.

At the same time, two Iran-backed proxies— Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon– are under intense Israeli military pressure in a 13-month onslaught.

Trump views Hamas and Hezbollah as Iranian-sponsored terrorist organizations. He backs Israel’s massive attack on Hamas as retaliation for its 2023 attack on Israeli-occupied communities.

He has also supported Hamas ‘ occupation of Lebanon by Israel, but he has not yet stated how much Hezbollah should be punished for its support. The US Justice Department made federal accusations last week regarding an Iranian plot to kill Donald Trump before the November 5 presidential election.

Finally, Trump has promised to slap 60 % tariffs on China, a pledge that was central to his campaign. He uses the taxes to lure manufacturers who have fled to low-wage China to relocate to the US and find new employment.

He has n’t yet taken a position on China’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, nor on Beijing’s ever-louder insistence that it must “reunify” Taiwan with the mainland.

Trump made unconventional overtures to lessen tensions with potential adversaries during his previous term in office, none of which produced any notable breakthroughs.

He tried flattery with Putin, called the Russian leader a “genius” and described Russia’s 2014 limited invasion of Ukraine” savvy”. Flattery got Trump nowhere, however, judging by his second invasion of Ukraine in 2022 under Biden.

Kim Jung Un, the leader of North Korea, and Trump met with him in Vietnam and Singapore to discuss nuclear weapons. He followed up with a series of what Trump called “love letters” to the North Korean dictator. The denuclearization proposal died as a result of the exchanges.

Most significantly, perhaps, Trump hosted Chinese leader Xi Jinping at his waterfront mansion in Palm Beach, Florida, where they discussed trade disputes but reached no accords to ease tensions. Trump later imposed tariffs on a select group of Chinese goods, all of which are still in effect as he considers imposing more.

Trump’s unconventional approach to high-stakes diplomacy will have better luck this time around, or will he remain in charge when World War III is a reality rather than a threat?

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Middle East peace may be beyond Trump the dealmaker’s reach – Asia Times

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Donald Trump’s re-election as US senator took place last week during a Middle East period of extreme uncertainty.

The president-elect has promised to end all war. He has pledged to end the Ukraine conflict within 24 hours of taking business and assist Israel in completing its Gaza and Lebanon operations fast in his usual aggressive and unpredictable ways.

The Middle East is, however, a difficult position. Given the dynamic relations between Iran and its adversary, Saudi Arabia, Trump may have a difficult time balancing his fervent support for Israel with his other goals in the region.

What is Trump expect from his upcoming election campaign. Qatar’s news to put a stop to its role as a peace mediator between Israel and Hamas was overshadowed by the US vote.

Over the past year, the little, oil-rich province has worked diligently to resolve the conflict. It also made great use of Hamas’s political headquarters and base in Doha, as well as its close ties with the United States, which has its largest Middle Eastern military base there. This, Qatar believed, would help it gain the confidence of the opposing parties.

Yet, its efforts were merely limited to a small peace last year, which resulted in the launch of 240 Israeli prisoners in exchange for more than 100 Jewish hostages.

This is due to a number of factors. For one, there are a few key sticking points that the two factors must overcome. A momentary peace has been ruled out by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has pledged to totally end Hamas. Hamas demands a full withdrawal from Gaza and an Israeli military removal.

However, Washington has failed to enjoy a significant role in the speaks. The Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized its need for a ceasefire, but it has never used political language to put any real strain on Israel.

Additionally, it has steadfastly rejected limiting Israel’s defense assistance. Rather, it approved a US$ 20&nbsp, billion arms sales to Israel in August. Netanyahu has no convincing reason to deviate from his goal, as a result.

Possible peace in Lebanon

Expectations have been heightened on a ceasefire in Lebanon as the chances of a ceasefire in Gaza have decreased.

Apparently, Washington has been conducting extensive political negotiations to broker a solution between Israel and Hezbollah.

A safety zone should be established between the two countries in order to prevent Hezbollah from being disarmed and pushed back at least 30 kilometers northwest of the Israeli border in southwestern Lebanon. Palestinian officials are likely to reject Israel’s desire to keep the right to hit Hezbollah if necessary.

Hezbollah’s bombing and ground conquest of southern Lebanon by Israel resulted in significant civilian deaths.

However, it has n’t been able to cripple Hezbollah to the extent that it would be forced to accept a ceasefire on Israel’s terms, just as it has been unable to do so for Hamas. The violent group’s political and military skills are still strong enough to endure.

Then, Trump re-enters the picture. His finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, has asked the appropriate authorities to plan for the proper conquest of Jewish communities in the West Bank as a result of his political success.

Trump has long been a vocal supporter of Israel. During his first president, he&nbsp, recognized&nbsp, Jerusalem as the investment of Israel and ordered the US ambassador to move it. In addition, he acknowledged that Israel had a right to control the 1967-seized Golan Heights.

He withdrew the US from the international Iran nuclear agreement and criticized Iran as the actual villain in the area. He even spearheaded the Abraham Accords, which established a framework for international cooperation between Israel and many Arab nations.

The local structure has been altered, but, by the war in Gaza and Lebanon and the primary military markets between Israel and Iran over the past month.

Trump has backed Hamas and Hezbollah without wavering, and he is good to resume his “maximum force” campaign against Iran. Tehran might be subject to stringent restrictions, block its fuel exports, or attempt to isolate it internationally.

However, as a interpersonal leader, Trump even wants to strengthen America’s profitable economic and trade ties with the Egyptian governments of the area.

However, these locations have been shaken by the size of Israel’s Gaza and Lebanon activities. Their leaders ‘ unwillingness to retaliate against Israel’s behavior is causing their communities to swell in anger. Nowhere in the world is this more obvious than Jordan.

Saudi Arabia, America’s richest and most important Muslim ally in the area, has recently taken the lead in voicing strong antagonism to Israel. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, has also set out to normalize ties with Israel by paving the way for an independent Israeli position.

Additionally, Riyadh is strengthening its more than year-long reconciliation with its dome enemy, Iran. The two nations ‘ security ministers&nbsp, met&nbsp, next trip following a&nbsp, combined military exercise&nbsp, involving their fleets.

In order to reach a consensus on how to deal with Israel and the incoming Trump administration, Bin Salman has also convened a meeting of Arab and Muslim officials in Riyadh.

Where is it all heading?

Trump will have to strike a balance between maintaining America’s close ties with its classic Arab allies and his determination to Israel. This will be necessary to put an end to Iran’s nuclear program in the Middle East.

Tehran is no longer as susceptible to Trump’s vengeance as it was in the history. It has stronger military ties with Russia, China, and North Korea, as well as stronger ties with local Muslim state.

Given the absence of a Gaza peace, the slim hope of a block to the Lebanon battle, Netanyahu’s intolerance and Trump’s achievement of an” Israel first” plan, the Middle East’s volatility is likely to linger.

In a world where everything is so divided and uncertain, it might be as troubling for Trump as Joe Biden.

At the Australian National University, Professor Emeritus of Middle Eastern and Central Eastern Research Amin Saikal

The Conversation has republished this essay under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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China’s military mishaps don’t add up to strategic weakness – Asia Times

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Recent reports about China’s military missteps, from missiles that have been sunk to a sinking underwater, have fueled questions about its military’s eagerness and power.

Although these developments show actual issues facing China’s defense sector, it would be wrong to let US policymakers focus on a larger issue.

The United States has a significant chance to engage with China in ways that lessen threats and enhance relationships rather than reinforcing outdated stereotypes. &nbsp,

China’s nuclear army continues to grow, and its corporate objectives remain transparent. The United States may continue to be focused on reducing nuclear threats and improving the US-China relationship rather than fixating on temporary issues or internal problems in China’s military and defense industry.

This requires developing stronger political-military ties and improving our knowledge of China’s changing radioactive strategy. Creative dialogue can help stop misinterpretations and errors in judgment and, crucially, avoid a US-China conflict that neither country would like.

The United States can maintain a steady corporate relationship and reduce the risks of nuclear miscalculation only through ongoing diplomatic and military commitment. &nbsp,

True problems, real uncertainty&nbsp,

In its effort to modernize its defense, China faces distinctive internal challenges, including problems with DIB, labor shortages, and management issues. These hurdles make China’s military accumulation inconsistent and, at times, questionable.

But, ascribing very much importance to these deficiencies may be short-sighted. China has yet to declare a dedication to nuclear-related dialogue, while the US’s understanding of these options is still largely unimportant. It also has yet to make a statement regarding its commitment to developing its normal defense and nuclear capabilities.

The United States is unable to create a truly effective and beneficial exchange due to this knowledge gap. &nbsp, While it may be tempting to interpret developments such as corruption within the People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ) and inefficiencies in China’s DIB as evidence of a larger vulnerability in China’s grand strategy, this would be a dangerous miscalculation. &nbsp, &nbsp,

These views frequently show that China’s strategic interests and long-term objectives are not fully understood. Corruption, for example, while dangerous for domestic defense governance, does not essentially convert into an inability to manage or install atomic forces.

Similarly, inefficiencies in the DIB may slow aspects of China’s broader military modernization, but they do n’t undermine the strategic importance of China’s nuclear arsenal in the eyes of Chinese Communist Party leaders.

Interpreting these indications could cause US policymakers to interpret China’s real capabilities and motivations, thus stifling their attention from more crucial goals like risk reduction and transparency. &nbsp,

The need for more strategic engagement cannot be ignored by China’s domestic difficulties.

China also seeks clarity regarding US threat perceptions and assurance that the United States is willing to engage in matters Beijing deems crucial to its national interests, only as Washington gladly awaits confirmation of Beijing’s intentions.

These incidents should validate the need for deeper communication and interaction rather than using China’s challenges as argumentative points to support a dynamic tale. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The United States must be aware that misinterpretations of China’s proper calculus can be dangerous. The goal should be to employ China on its long-term objectives, as well as the technical, philosophical, and social dimensions of its atomic considering.

This can be achieved through ongoing diplomatic and military-to-military speech, as well as by putting a mutual approach to relationship that emphasizes accountability and bilateral knowing at the forefront. &nbsp, &nbsp,

There is room for US officials to better understand the political, intellectual, and administrative factors that are influencing Chinese counterparts ‘ decisions regarding US nuclear policy in ways that seem overseas to Beijing. &nbsp,

Building a more stable strategic connection requires demonstrating a commitment to meet China way on pressing issues.

The United States can develop greater respect and understanding between the two countries by concentrating on common pursuits, such as preventing nuclear misunderstanding and direct military conflict.

In a candid conversation, both sides have legitimate interests at heart, not by making unwanted punitive concessions.

Creative relationship over distraction&nbsp,

Great energy competition has become a more active goal that extremely influences policy decisions in Washington as a challenge rather than a chore to manage in US-China relations.

As such, some are willing to look for possible symptoms of benefits or disadvantage. Problem within the PLA rates, water-filled rockets or an undesirable submersible accident are all easy distractions. The US may resist the urge to take sweeping inferences from these improvements. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Instead, US politicians should take advantage of these events as a chance to participate in proper speech. In the long-term, deeper political-military relationships are far more essential to US passions than reacting to every sign of feasible weakness or difficulties in China’s defense establishment.

The US-China conflict will linger, but by focusing on improving conversation, building confidence and addressing shared hobbies, it can be managed. Even better, with these initiatives, the United States can create the conditions for a more predictable coming for US-China relationships. &nbsp,

Shawn Rostker is a research scientist at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

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Indonesia’s Prabowo tilting perceptibly toward China – Asia Times

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Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has had a cyclone year. He was seated with President Joe Biden in the White House on November 9 while he was negotiating with Taiwanese leader Xi Jinping. Subianto contacted Donald Trump to thank him on his success in the US election while he was at it.

Subianto’s two-week international trip includes visits to Peru, Brazil, the UK, and a number of Middle Eastern nations as well as the trips to the United States and China.

The itinerary suggests the president of Southeast Asia’s largest economy’s new administration’s political priorities, which are balancing Indonesia’s relations with key West and global South allies, and pursuing a more forceful leadership position in Southeast Asia.

The position Indonesia tries to play in ensuring local stability and security in the Indo-Pacific is highlighted by Subianto’s back-to-back discussions with Xi and Biden.

A US-Indian aquatic workout is currently being conducted off the Indonesian area of Batam at the time of the sessions. Similar maneuvers between US and Southeast Asian companions have tended to be framed as a deterrent to China’s aggressiveness in the disputed waters of the South China Sea in the next quarterly military workout of its kind.

Subianto and Xi were making nice-nature promises to increase coastal cooperation between the two nations while the US and Indonesian troops carried out maneuvers. The big question is now how Indonesia’s Indo-Pacific safety balance will be affected by a Trump White House.

Trump’s Indo-Pacific plan

Trump’s first term as president provides some insight into how his Indo-Pacific scheme might change in the future. The&nbsp, 2019 Indo-Pacific Strategy Report&nbsp, issued by the Trump presidency marked China as a “revisionist” power—that is, one that is dissatisfied with the latest status quo—and an aspiring local superpower.

To counter this, Trump adopted an “offshore balancing” plan – in consequence utilizing local friends to stay China in check. Security agreements with conventional allies and joint military training exercises with nations like Indonesia and the Philippines were used as part of this strategy.

Additionally, it included providing military technology to regional partners and sporadically-performed “freedom of navigation” businesses by the US Navy.

A globe shows Chinese writing over various islands.
China’s nine-dash column takes in place claimed by different countries. Photo: AP via The Conversation / Andy Wong

But there was another side to Trump’s Indo-Pacific plan.

Trump was open to escalation with China in the South China Sea in exchange for Beijing’s assistance in battling North Korea, one of the region’s biggest threats to stability, despite the US’s lack of direct security interests there ( no US territories are threatened ), but worried about a military conflict if Beijing agreed to cooperate in addressing one of the region’s biggest security threats, including North Korea.

Under Trump’s second management, Indonesia received a challenge and possibility by easing the pressure on Beijing in the South China Sea and providing local security to Washington’s Indo-Pacific friends.

In order to fulfill its crucial political responsibilities to preserve regional security, Indonesia was required to lead the dialogue of the South China Sea code of conduct as Southeast Asia’s largest and most populous country.

Subianto tilts toward China

Indonesia has much shown a willingness to take on the safety of the region. Subsequent leaders have taken the responsibility seriously, especially given the country’s constitutional authority to do an “independent and lively” foreign plan.

In order to improve their standing as an independent professional, Indonesian leaders have generally avoided getting too close to the US or China.

However, Indonesia’s foreign policy has begun to change significantly since Subianto became chairman of Indonesia in October 2024.

Weeks after his opening, Subianto sent his new foreign secretary to Kazan, Russia, to attend the meeting of BRICS countries and show Indonesia’s desire to join the expanding alliance of non-Western markets.

China is the group’s largest representative, and it aims to be an alternative to European security and economic structures. This conventional expression of intention to meet BRICS marks a change from coverage under Subianto’s forerunner, Joko Widodo.

Additionally, a joint declaration made during Subianto’s attend to Beijing suggests that Indonesia is beginning to consider South China Sea maritime claims made by Beijing.

For years, Indonesia refused to acknowledge Beijing’s says on rocks and reefs within Indonesia’s special economic zone in the waters around Natuna – an Indian island that connects with China’s “nine-dash line” denoting the region Beijing sees as Chinese.

However, the joint statement from Subianto’s visit to Beijing stated that the two nations had reached” an essential typical understanding on mutual growth in areas of intersecting says” that was in line with “respective prevalent laws and regulations.”

Speak of “overlapping says” is a departure for Indonesia and suggests that Subianto is more open to embracing Beijing’s restrictions in the South China Sea.

OECD or BRICS? Or both?

This does n’t mean Indonesia is restricting its options for greater cooperation with the West either. During the White House leg of Subianto’s visit, Biden signaled the US’s strong support for Indonesia’s push to join the Western-dominated Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ( OECD ).

With the business establishing international standards and supporting Indonesia, the organization may act as a benchmarking body for Indonesia to help it get higher-quality foreign investment.

President of Indonesia Prabowo Subianto meets his U. S. equivalent. But will the gap between the two nations eventually grow? by Alex Wong/Getty Images

BRICS account, however, would reflect more of a political and economic shift that would position Indonesia alongside other states seeking an alternative to the U. S. dominated international organizations.

If Trump’s plan to impose high tariffs on foreign goods is implemented, Indonesia’s interest may only grow.

Providing cover for Subianto

In response to a Trump White House, Indonesia certainly seems to have the potential to adopt a more pro-Beijing stance under Subianto.

Trump’s immediate attention is likely to be heavily influenced by conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, pushing security concerns in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific region in particular further down the list.

The Chinese government continues to maintain its policy of limiting South China Sea trade and exerting economic influence on all of Southeast Asia’s countries.

Some observers are already questioning whether Indonesia’s change in the South China Sea’s disputed territory is related to China’s economic cooperation, which includes the US$ 10 billion in deals signed during Subianto’s visit to Beijing.

And a more secretive, anti-interventionist White House under Trump might give Subian the opportunity to aide Indonesia in advancing its position as a regional leader while strengthening its economic and strategic ties to China and the Global South.

Idil Syawfi is an assistant professor of international relations at the University of Katolik Parahyangan, and Angguntari Ceria Sari is a lecturer there.

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Rubio and Trump agree on Ukraine but not on NATO – Asia Times

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Nearly all of Donald Trump’s nominations for crucial roles in his presidency have been unconventional. Pete Hegseth, a Fox News broadcaster, has been named as Trump’s potential security secretary.

Vivek Ramaswamy, a founder of a pharmaceutical company, has been appointed as the head of the previously named Department of Government Performance, replacing Elon Musk. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem has been chosen as the Department of Homeland Security director despite having much experience with frontier safety.

Linda McMahon, World Wrestling Entertainment co-founder, has been mentioned as Trump’s good pick for secretary of commerce. These individuals have all shown a great deal of loyalty to Trump. Some candidates have public-selection experience.

That makes the election of Florida’s Senator Marco Rubio a little unexpected. Rubio was n’t an election sceptic, something that the other takes have been outspoken about, and he has years of experience as a legislator. Rubio even made a well-known mockery of Trump’s arms during the 2016 Republican primary campaign.

In Trump’s common clothing, he responded by referring to Rubio as” Little Marco”. However, it is obvious that these two have concealed the knife. Rubio eventually became one of Trump’s biggest supporters and ended up running for him.

What makes Rubio a surprising choice as Trump’s foreign policy president? Rubio is less fond of Russia and is seen as more of a conventional intervention. He called Vladimir Putin a “killer”, although within the last two years, Rubio has moderated his place.

This month, Rubio said that, although he supports Ukraine, the battle has to stop. Rubio argued that the US was providing for a standoff without protecting Ukraine or US objectives. He continued,” But that does n’t mean that we are happy or excited about Vladimir Putin’s actions.”

In April 2024, Rubio was also one of the Republicans who abstained from the Ukraine support costs. Rubio is likely to back Trump’s want to negotiate with Russia, which would leave Ukraine with no choice but to surrender substantial territory.

Rubio on NATO

Rubio has obviously changed his mind about Ukraine to fit Trump’s, but he does not agree with Trump on NATO. In fact, Rubio and Democrat Senator Tim Kaine cosponsored legislation that would require the Senate to approve a removal.

This likely represents a point of disagreement between Trump and NATO, but other NATO member countries may interpret it as a positive indicator.

Trump, nevertheless, seems to be willing to look past this because he agrees with Rubio’s aggressive approach to China and Iran. Rubio has suggested that US investment industry be made illegal for businesses run by the Chinese Communist Party or the Chinese government.

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Rubio also supported a law to stop the transfer of Chinese goods that were produced using forced labour, and he also urged electric cars to not be subject to subsidies.

In terms of Iran, Rubio can see no difference between Masoud Pezeshkian’s command and that of hardliner Egyptian ex-president Ebrahim Raisi.

Rubio has advocated for tougher sanctions on Iran, and more force applied to suppress the government’s nuclear ambitions. A fervent admirer of Israel, Rubio has argued that Iran’s main goal is to make Israel unliveable.

Rubio would become the first Spanish British secretary of state if he was confirmed. He is fluent in Spanish. In Latin American elections, Trump has demonstrated blind belief in Rubio’s understanding of the area.

Rubio played about a secretary of state in Trump’s first word, which was undoubtedly a key part of US foreign policy toward Latin America. Rubio worked to revers the Obama administration’s softening of Cuba’s grip and impose stricter sanctions on the country’s defense.

Rubio’s involvement in Venezuela’s crackdown was likewise significant. Rubio has made it clear that there is no way to resolve Venezuela’s status as a “narco” position.

Rubio has stated that a military coup against Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro may be open to all possibilities, and he has not ruled out a military coup. Rubio will likely recommend for far harsher restrictions against Venezuela, despite the fact that it’s unlikely that the US would enter.

But what best defines Rubio’s foreign policy? He certainly wants to take a tough approach towards America’s opponents, but had n’t recommend military invasions.

Transactional Trumpist

More important, Rubio is very interpersonal. In order to be a part of Trump’s inner group, he has made peace with changing his mind on important foreign policy issues.

Rubio will now have the freedom to clear US foreign policy in Latin America and the highly successful secretary of state position if he refused to support Ukraine in order to more strongly resemble the MAGA agenda.

While Trump’s major foreign policy objective is to try to maintain an” America first” mission, where US national interests are always commonplace, and to be unexpected, Rubio may take some predictability to his role.

He may be closer in perspective to Rex Tillerson, Trump’s former secretary of state who was ousted in 2018. Tillerson claimed that Trump reportedly referred to him as a “moron” because he had little knowledge of global activities behind closed doors. Or he might be more like former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who often sang Trump’s compliments.

Pompeo evidently and undoubtedly did have democratic aspirations after his time in the cabinet, despite Tillerson’s. He may also pose a threat to JD Vance’s rising celebrity status.

Given Trump’s present dominance of the Democratic party, there are likely to be hostilities between Trump and Rubio. We might anticipate Rubio rolling into Trump’s camp. His positions may get a little more explicit once he is in place and in charge of global conversations.

Natasha Lindstaedt is a professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex.

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Loyalty trumps all else in picks of cabinet & other top officials – Asia Times

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Of 44 people who served in Donald Tump’s cabinet during his first leadership, just four endorsed him for the presidency in 2024. His biggest error, he claimed to the important podcaster Joe Rogan days before the election, was to assign “disloyal folks.”

According to what we know about the cabinet selections and other political appointments he has made so far, the president-elect makes it clear that he does n’t intend to make the same mistake this time around.

Chief of staff: Susie Wiles

The Trump team’s initial visit did not come as a surprise.

Trump said that Wiles had” really helped me achieve one of the greatest social successes in American history”, describing her as” tough, intelligent, inventive” and “universally admired and respected”.

Susie Wiles expressed some doubts to Trump about the chief of staff position before accepting it, according to a report from CNN. More executive authority over who could speak to the president in the Oval Office was at the top of the list, citing” the clown car ca n’t enter the White House at will.” However, according to reports, Trump apparently chose Matt Gaetz to be the attorney basic without consulting her. Photo: CNN

Wiles, a veteran political operator who joined Ronald Reagan’s campaign staff in 1980, has decades of Democratic political experience in Florida.

She masterminded Ron DeSantis’s effective strategy for chancellor.

Individuals near to Trump have portrayed Wiles’s comparative lack of experience in Washington as a virtue.

She is said to have no prior relations to Washington officials or officials.

Attorney standard: Matt Gaetz

In a way that exemplifies Trump’s approach to government takes, Matt Gaetz as solicitor general is no exception. A long-time MAGA brave, Gaetz has been a outspoken supporter of Trump in Congress, opposing his impeachment on both times.

The 42-year-old lawyer from the town of Hollywood, a native of Florida, has been the subject of numerous controversy in his 14 years of state and federal elections, including allegations of sexual misconduct and campaign finance fraud. Gaetz now serves in the GOP’s far-right nationalist wing since winning the 2016 congressional election.

Surprise election for attnrney common: Matt Gaetz. Photo: EPA-EFE/Erik S Lesser

Director of national intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Gabbard is a wonder get after serving as a Hawaii representative in the House of Representatives. In the National Guard, she served as a lieutenant captain. She left the Democrat Party in October 2022 after Joe Biden won the Democratic nomination for president in 2020. In August of this year, she endorsed Trump.

Gabbard has received criticism for her extraordinary views on Russia and Ukraine, and she continues to oppose US aid for Ukraine. She has no experience in knowledge, not having worked in the field, and has not served on any legislative knowledge boards.

Security minister: Pete Hegseth

Pete Hegseth, a former of Fox News and the US National Guard, makes another unexpected appearance. In fact, according to reports, his appointment as defence minister reportedly caught the Pentagon’s top brass by shock more.

As a Fox News reporter, Hegseth called for some major generals to get fired, including the head of the joint chiefs of staff, General CQ Brown, for what Hesgeth called their “woke” plan, which he said was undermining US military power.

Hegseth wrote in a book that was released earlier this year that” the next president of the United States needs to fundamentally change senior leadership to make us ready to defend our country and fight our foes.” Lots of people need to be fired”.

Secretary of country safety: Kristi Noem

Prior to her revelations in a narrative about killing an “untrainable” family dog, the South Dakota government had been viewed as a strong candidate for the vice-presidential election earlier this year. These ambitions were rapidly replaced by this registration.

However, Noem, who served as secretary of homeland security, is expected to take a harsh stance on the subject. He was a very outspoken supporter of Trump’s immigration policy throughout the plan. Some of the tone that the Trump presidency can expect from her is evident in her willingness to use phrases like “invasion” to identify immigration.

Border king: Tom Homan

Tom Homan, who previously served as the acting director of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement ( ICE), returns to the cast. Then appointed as Trump’s “border czar”, Homan is another emigration hardliner.

A recent TV interview gave a preview of immigration policy during the next Trump White House, in which he argued for mass deportation and claimed that family disputes could be resolved “families can be deported up.”

Secretary of state: Marco Rubio

Marco Rubio was a bitter enemy who received money from the Tea Party and was later hailed as “little Marco” when Trump ran against him in the 2016 Republican primary. Rubio’s foreign legislation is viewed as aggressive. Along with the president-elect, his aggressive approach toward China will strengthen his position.

Rubio and Trump disagreed on the subject of NATO because of his previous co-sponsoring a expenses that would forbid any US senator from leaving without the approval of Congress. Thus did his tough line on Russia. But more recently he has endorsed Trump’s place on Ukraine, saying the combat “needs to be brought to a summary”.

Rubio, who calls Iran a “terrorist regime,” is a steadfast admirer of Israel. He urged the Netanyahu authorities to vehemently listen to Iranian and Hezbollah’s missile launches into Israel.

National security advisor: Mike Waltz

Mike Waltz, a senior of the Army Green Berets, has extensive experience in both domestic and international affairs. He is mainly known as a China bird, having called the region an “existential danger” to the US in the 21st century, many as Russia had been in the 20th century.

He is a fervent supporter of Israel, and he previously stated to journalists earlier this year that he opposes a ceasefire and hostage agreement because it wo n’t put an end to the conflict. He backs Trump’s position on NATO, and he cosponsored policy to allow the use of force against Mexican cartel in 2023.

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy

Elon Musk’s interview is a unique one, even though it came as no surprise following the election campaign. Trump has asked the richest man in the world to lead a new “department of state efficiency” along with tycoon Vivek Ramaswamy, a businessman in medicine.

Together they are tasked with making cuts estimated at more than$ 2 trillion, about one-third of the overall budget of the federal government. Trump has referred to this as his adminstration’s” Manhattan initiative”.

Musk will unavoidably face labour unions and the stringent work protections that benefit provincial government employees in order to achieve the cuts. Tesla is the only US car company without unionized labor.

Controversially, this interview will provide Musk control over the pretty organizations that oversee his businesses and have launched numerous investigations into issues like the security of his Tesla cars and the alleged economic damage caused by his SpaceX projects in recent years.

Formally, Musk and Ramaswamy are not taking up cabinet roles. But there is intense speculation that Musk, in particular, whom Trump praised in his victory speech as a” super genius”, will play a central role in the president’s inner circle. There are also rumors that Musk’s extremely high media profile may already be grating on the president-elect in keeping with the frequently chaotic hiring and firing that characterized Trump’s first term.

Christopher Featherstone teaches in the University of York’s Department of Politics.

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