What ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu does and doesn’t mean – Asia Times

The International Criminal Court ( ICC ) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defense minister, Yoav Gallant, and Hamas leader, Mohammed Deif. The court claims that since Hamas ‘ October 7 attack on Israel, both sides have committed war crimes and crimes against humanity.

Israel has claimed Deif was killed in an airstrike in July despite the release of a permit for him. Hamas has not, however, confirmed or refuted this assertion. If they were ever to become judged at the ICC, a judgment is probable.

Netanyahu faces serious charges from the judge. The three-judge board universally said that he and Gallant are” co-perpetrators for committing the war murder of hunger as a method of war, and the crimes against humanity of death, persecution, and another cruel works”.

The judges even “found fair grounds for believing that they are criminally responsible” for the war crime of intentionally attacking the population. The International Court of Justice‘s investigation, which determined that it is “plausible” that Israel has committed a crime against the Gaza Genocide Convention, supports the allegations.

If arrested, Netanyahu would go through a trial, and he could therefore be acquitted, or convicted. In the latter event, Netanyahu may join the ranks of officials considered perpetrators of crimes against humanity, such as Charles Taylor of Liberia, Hissène Habré of Chad, Saddam Hussein of Iraq, Augusto Pinochet of Chile, Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia, Radovan Karadžić of Serbia, Idi Amin of Uganda, Pol Pot of Cambodia, Joseph Stalin of the former Soviet Union, Mao Zedong of China, and Adolf Hitler of Germany.

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Subsequent steps

The execution of the arrest permits depends on the actions of ICC member state. And this is by no means a foregone conclusion. Russia’s leader, Vladimir Putin, has been wanted by&nbsp, the jury since 2023&nbsp, for his role in directing attacks on civilians in Ukraine and the unlawful imprisonment of Russian children.

Putin was recently in Mongolia, a position that is a member of the ICC, after the Mongolian government assured him that he would be healthy. However, he was unable to go to South Africa when the BRICS financial bloc’s leaders, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, convened in Johannesburg in 2023.

This was due to the practice in South Africa of past Syrian leader, Omar Al-Bashir. Bashir, for whom the ICC granted arrest warrants in 2009 and 2010 for supposedly directing a campaign of mass killing, rape and pillage against citizens in Darfur, traveled to South Africa in 2015 to enter an African Union conference. But because he was afraid of being arrested, he had to abandon immediately.

South Africa’s Supreme Court of Appeal ruled in 2016 that the government’s failing to assault him was unconstitutional. And South Africa was penalized by the ICC for” terrible failure” to arrest Bashir the next year. He was even able to travel freely to other ICC part states, including Chad, Kenya and Jordan.

In a military coup in 2019, Bashir was put in jail. He has been subject to an investigation for his role in the revolt that brought him to strength and has been found guilty of corruption in Sudan.

The ICC, which already has a poor track record of trials, is damaged if offenders are not arrested. For instance, after former president of Ivory Coast, Laurent Gbagb, was charged next acquitted. However, it also negates a sizable option for major crime victims to obtain justice.

Serious political implications

Netanyahu’s chances of appearing at the Hague are slim. He is the first president of a European nation to be accused of being indicted by the ICC. But the social implications of the arrest warrants for Netanyahu are, at any rate, serious.

Netanyahu was aware that he would be held accountable for his social choices by the ICC, which is why he opposed the ICC’s membership in 2015.

In reality, Netanyahu could gain even more of his own country’s validity than he has now lost with some organizations. Israeli civil society organizations are carefully following the ICC’s activities.

B’Tselem, a Jerusalem-based non-profit firm that documents human rights violations in the occupied Palestinian territories, has said that the ICC action and ICJ rulings “are a chance for us, Israelis, to understand that … upholding a regime of supremacy, violence and oppression always involves crimes and serious violation of human rights”.

In addition, he will have a limited range of travel options and be viewed as a pariah in many of the 124 ICC says. Most rulers of Western nations, including Germany, would agree on this position. In May, a government spokesman suggested that if permits were issued, Germany would jail Netanyahu.

The EU’s current global human rights restrictions program, which allows targeted sanctions against foreigners who are deemed to be responsible for flagrant human rights violations, is unlikely to be used by the EU.

This is because uniformity across the alliance is required, and some states such as Austria, Czechia, Hungary and Germany may become reluctant to agree to this. Perhaps the French foreign ministry director said:” It’s a place that is officially complex”. There will be pressure on the institutions of all Union nations to operate against Netanyahu because the EU is a strong supporter of the ICC.

Netanyahu is not the only one with regard to this decision’s social relevance. Since October 7, pro-Palestinian protests have occurred at more than 500 US institutions. And the UK has now joined most EU states in supporting Netanyahu’s imprisonment.

Due to its lack of support for international laws, the US is currently largely isolated among the West. On the other hand, the ICC is becoming more and more prominent as it seeks to bring about global justice for patients.

Catherine Gegout is associate professor in foreign relationships, University of Nottingham

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US anti-personnel mines to Ukraine both desperate and depressing – Asia Times

In the last week of his president, Joe Biden, has agreed to give Ukraine a deeper hand in shaping the land warfare against the Russians.

He gave the Ukrainian military the go-ahead to launch long-range ATACMS weapons against targets in Russia on October 17, prompting the British to do the same. Moscow has issued a harsh reminder after Ukraine used both places ‘ weapons in assaults on Russian soil.

The Russian leader, Vladimir Putin, eventually signed off on modifications to Russia’s nuclear philosophy, which makes it easier for Russia to establish a second attack.

However, there has been controversy over Biden’s decision to send anti-personnel mines ( APLs ) to Ukraine to help it defend itself from the persistent Russian offensive. These landmines are &nbsp, reported to be “non-persistent” ,&nbsp, meaning they can be set to be active for a limited amount of time and deactivated once their batteries fail.

However, the Ottawa Convention, which prohibits the use, stockpiling, or transfer of anti-personnel mining, has been condemned by international humanitarian agencies in a time when using them is taboo ( but not the US or Russia ).

Other than being permanent APLs, no further information has been released regarding what kinds of munitions the US has promised to Ukraine. The US has several APL and non-persistent landmine systems as well as mixed APL and anti-tank ( AT ) systems.

Dedicated APL systems are pursuit-denial munitions and area-denial artillery munitions ( Adam ). As an example of a mixed AT and APL system, the M87 ( Volcano ) is a mine-laying system that uses prepackaged mine canisters, which can contain multiple APL or AT mines, or both, which are dispersed over a wide area when ejected from the canister. This method is also employed by various militaries that have not yet ratified the Ottawa Convention.

The Adam technique is most likely to contain the US’s mine. As Russian troops are forced again, this would allow for fast deployment in the face of quickly advanceing Russian forces and for military remote deployments. They can also be remotely ejected to aid in the war, similar to the Volcano system.

Numerous charitable organizations have condemned the US for this coverage change. The US has been trying to control the use of mines in other countries ‘ defenses, despite not being bound by the Ottawa Convention.

And today, numerous administrations and charitable organizations are taking on the challenge of removing mines from the planet. But, according to new NATO estimates, there are still at least 110 million mines littering 70 countries.

The US’s commitment to provide Ukraine with APLs raises the possibility of lifting the ban on landmine deployment in conflict areas.

Landmines will only be used in non-residential locations and on war’s frontlines, according to Ukraine. However, the problem is not as much with the real weapons program in Ukraine: the mine are non-persistent and will not leave a lasting risk. The issue is that this appears to be a quite open display of genuine warcraft.

One of the most intensely mined nations in the world is now Ukraine, which is for noting. To slow down the progress of Russian forces, Russian troops have used 13 different types of munitions. Following the 2014 conquest of Crimea and a number of locations, Russian mines were first used in the west of Ukraine.

The World Bank estimated last year that US$ 37.4 billion would be spent on demining Ukraine. However, the global community has not responded to the US’s use of mines in Ukraine. This is mainly due to the US’s effective diplomatic support for limiting their use in contemporary conflicts.

Other than to defend South Korea, the Obama management put limits on the use of APLs in 2014, which included a ban on using them. Donald Trump rescinded these in 2020. The Biden administration announced in 2022 that limits on APLs would be lifted in order to take the United States in line with the Ottowa Convention anywhere in the world besides the Korean Peninsula.

Russian benefit

APLs are no longer a suitable and possibly useful tool for Ukraine to use, despite the charitable objections to them. The current state of the war makes them a suitable and potentially useful one at this point.

The attacking troops have been instructed to leave their vehicles and move forward because of Ukraine’s productive use of drones to attack Russian armoured vehicles, which transport troops and supplies to moving front lines.

ISW map showing the state of the conflict in Ukraine, November 21.
Russia is making regular advances in eastern Ukraine, pressing along a large portion of the front. Graphic: Institute for the Study of War

Traditional anti-tank bombs are less efficient on troops moving on foot, and men in groups are much more able to stay hidden from Ukrainian aircraft personnel. Additionally, AT landmines lose their ability to obstruct them into Russian fire lines as more Russian troops march on foot.

Therefore, Ukraine has requested these mine in response to the rising infantry’s desire to halt what has turned out to be an unstoppable Russian progress.

Soviet progress is gaining momentum. The battle to keep and acquire territory is likely to get worse because both Ukraine and Russia are aware that there will come a point when there will be peace and land.

Professor of International Security at the University of Bath, David J. Galbreath

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Russia needs a peace deal before it runs out of soldiers – Asia Times

For Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump’s win could n’t come soon enough. Putin may agree to a package in which Ukraine maintains its neutrality and abandons any programs to ally itself with NATO or the EU while gaining important place in Ukraine ( about the size of the US state of Virginia ).

Though Ukraine is experiencing conflict stress, but is Russia. The Kremlin is still battling to find soldiers for the fight, despite Russia‘s continued progress in the Ukrainian Donetsk place. This is confirmed by the recent discovery that North Vietnamese soldiers were engaged in combat in Ukraine.

A peace deal would be in Moscow’s passions as much as Kyiv’s as Russia continues to escalate the conflict, with reports from Ukraine suggesting Moscow had fired its first intercontinental ballistic missile of the conflict.

According to Western analyses, around 115, 000 to 160, 000 Russian forces have died, 90 % of the staff it had at the beginning of the war. While another 500, 000 have been injured. To mitigate these costs, Russia has been recruiting 20, 000 new men a month.

Even during the days of peace, recruiting troops into Russia’s army has never been that simple. More experienced military frequently bully and haze recruits, so many young Russian men avoid enlisting in the military. As a result, this is done. Known as dedovshchina, Russian abuse, hazing and beating of troops has been a significant game in the Russian government since the ending of the 17th centuries.

The Soviet Union’s dissolution led to the expose of the terrible circumstances in the military, which were documented by the Russian advertising. Many Russians may even recall how badly behaved conscripts were when they were sent off to fight in Chechnya in the middle of the 1990s.

The typical Russian general’s safety and well-being are not the subjects of the Russian government’s concern. This despair to prevent being drafted into an active war becomes even more severe during times of peace, which is unpopular.

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Despite the fact that study suggests he is running out of alternative soldiers, Putin appears to be threatening to employ nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

The army is also seen as a big trap to get the bad and impoverished. The graves of Russian soldiers are left out, and the bodies of some of them are maybe not identified. They are considered meat for the grinder.

Most of the volunteers have come from Far East states with significant indigenous groups such as Bashkortostan, Chechnya, the Republic of Sakha ( Yakutzia ) and Dagestan— or as far from Moscow as feasible.

However, a more intense Russian state is now facing yet young gentlemen in Moscow. Russians have eluded the land because hundreds of thousands of them have eluded it, prompting the government to pass a tougher draft legislation to detain troops.

Review notices are today delivered online rather than by mail as the new law was implemented on November 1st of this year. Those who are called up are quickly prohibited from leaving the country and face severe penalties if they attempt to do so once the notice arrives in a Russian man’s electronic box.

This means that whenever a Russian man contacts the government to pay taxes, renew a passport, get a driver’s license, or get some other government service, the Russian government will quickly issue them a draft card. It’s even easier to avoid the draft if you have an online presence in Russia, such as a bank account, loan, or car loan.

Russian people have used all manner of methods to avoid being drafted since the start of the conflict, including fabricating medical records, breaking their own vertebrae, and pretending to be drug users.

Moving to other countries or purchasing real estate in someone else’s brand was a frequent practice, but these days things are getting more difficult. Even though some of the people I spoke with for this article had no resided in Moscow since 2006, they were still drafted. The Russian government has used its extensive search for trainees to pursue Russian nationals who reside worldwide.

Russia has even somewhat drafted prisoners, which include assassins and paedophiles. This has caused Russia’s jail people to drop.

However, Putin is out of people. The Ministry of Defense has increased pay to double the bonus for those serving in&nbsp, November of last year, to attract more recruits. This makes it more beneficial than civilian jobs.

Another option is to rely on the North Korean government, but North Korean troops lack experience in combat, employ various military strategies, and are rarely Russian, making coordination for certain combat operations more challenging.

Soviet troops have remarked that they are unsure of their fate. Putin may attempt to pressure Belarus into offering support, even though this would be widely unpopular because Russian soldiers are well-versed in Belarusian strategies and operations.

Putin is demonstrating that regular warfare strategies are no longer sufficient in another sign of weakness. In response to a Russian assault using US-made ATACMS weapons in the northern Bryansk region of Russia, Putin threatened on November 19 that nuclear arms might be used.

There is no need to reduce the boundary for nuclear use when normal warfare strategies are effective.

Obviously, the conflict is never going especially well for Ukraine either. They are dealing with regional losses and their own selection issues. However, it is mistaken to believe that Putin will eventually form a strong place for negotiations. Fortunately for Putin, despite the possibility that he may not have enough gentlemen, a suitable deal may be in order that overlooks this.

Natasha Lindstaedt is professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex

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Philippines a strategic winner when Trump takes the helm – Asia Times

The United States and the Philippines have finally signed the General Security of Military Information Agreement ( GSOMIA ), which will ease sensitive intelligence-sharing and cybersecurity cooperation in the event of a regional conflict with China.

In a weeklong visit to the Philippines, the defence chief even made the first open confirmation of a new joint task force established to control China in tense South China Sea territory.

The new US Task Force-Ayungin has been providing direct US operational support to the Philippine Navy and other relevant organizations since it was established to stop a forcible Chinese invasion of the Philippines ‘ de facto military base on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal ( Ayungin in Filipino ).

By enabling US troops to help Armed Forces of the Philippines ‘ actions in the South China Sea, Task Force-Ayungin improves US-Philippine empire coordination and portability, according to Kanishka Gangopadhyay, a spokesperson at the US Embassy in Manila, in a statement confirming the task agency’s life.

However, Philippine officials welcomed the GSOMIA as a vital step to help the South Eastern world’s “access to higher features and big-ticket products from the United States” and to pave the way for” similar partnerships with like-minded nations” in the region, including brother US allies Japan, South Korea and Australia.

A new mixed coordination facility, which houses the Philippines ‘ top military installations and Department of National Defense squat, was established by the US and the Philippines. In the event of a crisis, including a potential issue with Taiwan, the new center is expected to manage joint US-Philippine operations.

This facility will allow the sharing of real-time information with a typical operating system, and it will increase interoperability for a long time to come. During the breakthrough service, US defense chief Austin stated that it will be a place where our forces can collaborate to address local issues.

General Romeo Brawner Jr., the head of the Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP), described the new facility as” a critical connection for our mutual operations, a gate for information-sharing and proper coordination,” which will improve the two allies ‘ ability to collaborate in times of crisis and create a setting where our strengths and talents come together to protect peace and security in our region.

Austin also made a military visit to Palawan, a province on the south of the border, and the tense Spratly group of islands, where Asian troops control more than 50 features whose possession is disputed by China. &nbsp,

During the visit, Austin observed the Philippine Navy’s deployment of T-12 unmanned surface vessels acquired through Washington’s foreign military financing ( FMF) program – a cornerstone of bilateral military cooperation.

The Pentagon has made it clear that it is required to intervene in the Philippines ‘ defense if any third party, specifically China, attempts to forcefully destroy the Philippines ‘ base located atop the Second Thomas Shoal, starting with the first Trump and continuing under the incoming Biden administrations.

Any attack on Philippine government sworn in, operated in the South China Sea, or the wider Pacific Ocean region, is covered by the 1951 Philippine-US Mutual Defense Treaty ( MDT ).

Any security pact with outside powers “must not ] target any third party or harm the objectives of any third group,” according to China’s foreign ministry, neither should it “untangle” regional harmony or “exacerbate regional conflicts.”

China criticized the growing Philippine-US military participation in a thinly veiled way, saying that” the only right choice is to preserve good neighborliness and friendship and keep proper independence.”

The Eastern power, however, you believe Manila did up its safety ties with the US under a Trump 2.0 management. The Philippines will likely play a key role in Trump’s administration’s pressure tactics on China with the appointment of Marco Rubio ( as secretary of state ) and Mike Waltz ( as national security adviser ). &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Ferdinand Marcos, the newly elected US head, apparently had a “very friendly and successful” conversation with him during his congratulations call.

The Filipino leader even went so far as to claim that the millions-strong Filipino-American community “overwhelmingly voted” for Trump and that” I’m sure]Trump ] will remember that when we see each other.’ ‘

Pre-election polls, however, have shown that, similar to other Asian-American groups, a healthy majority of Americans of Filipino descent actually favored outgoing Vice President Kamala Harris.

When Marcos traveled to the northwestern province of Catanduanes, which has been repeatedly stricken by super typhoons in recent weeks, most recently Man-yi, I was able to talk to him this morning and the Philippines was in his thoughts.

The president of the Philippines stated to the president that we are still trying to improve the relationship between our two countries, which is” a relationship that is as deep as can be because it has been for a very long time.”

On his end of the call, Trump reminded of his historical bonds with the Marcos family, dating back to their heyday in Manhattan, by asking after the leader’s mother, former First Lady Imelda Marcos, who is now 95 years old. At one point, the Marcoses owned a Trump building.

” He is friends with my mother. He was well-versed in my mother. He asked about her.’ How is Imelda? ” I told him that she also sends her greetings”, Marcos said.

The two leaders apparently discussed no significant bilateral issues, including concerns about how a more stringent immigration policy could have a significant impact on a large number of Filipino-Americans who are residing in the US illegally. &nbsp,

Despite the leader’s call for allies to pay more money for US security guarantees, the US is anticipated to increase defense aid to the Philippines under Trump’s leadership.

A newly released report by the Washington-based Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank that is expected to play an outsized role in Trump’s second administration, has called for the affordable transfer of high-end defense items, including F-16 fighters, as well as the deployment of state-of-the-art Terminal High Altitude Area Defense&nbsp, ( THAAD ) system, to defense allies.

The US Typhon missile system, which was previously deployed to Philippine soil for joint military exercises but has n’t been redeployed to the US since, may also be a target for the Philippines. China has voiced serious criticism of the Typhon, which can travel from the Philippines to Chinan cities.

The new Trump administration will likely have little patience for any dilly-dallying by key allies, especially in front-line nations like the Philippines.

For instance, Marcos Jr. has not yet stated his position on a potential emergency in neighboring Taiwan, and he has shied away from direct, high-level military action in Taipei or US-led strategic alliances to a future Chinese kinetic attack on the self-governing island. &nbsp,

Additionally, there are numerous significant-scale strategic Chinese investments in the Philippines. Overall, Marcos Jr.’s administration has attempted to avoid fully aligning with Washington by maintaining generally good relations with Beijing, a major trading partner.

However, it is anticipated that a second Trump administration will pressure Asian allies to declare their support for the US in order to advance regional orderkeeping.

” Hedging does n’t make sense ]since ] geopolitically and from a defense perspective I would not hedge, because you are too important ]as a frontline state ] …]so] pick a side and make sure you are not a’ no man’s land'”, Elbridge Colby, a key architect of Trump’s National Defense Strategy, told this writer earlier when asked about Southeast Asian states ‘ unwillingness to pick a side in between the two superpowers.

” Being half-pregnant is a bad idea, half-measures are dangerous”, the former US deputy assistant secretary for defense said.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Rich Heydarian

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AUKUS supercharging joint hypersonic weapon drive – Asia Times

In an effort to overtake Chinese competitors like China, AUS partners are putting together a bold new agreement that will pool sources, testing, and cutting-edge technologies.

According to Breaking Defense, the US, UK, and Australia have all agreed to strengthen their fast weapons arsenals under the AUKUS trilateral security agreement, which was signed this month.

The report says the Hypersonic Flight Test and Experimentation ( HyFliTE ) Project Arrangement, announced this August, will facilitate using each other’s hypersonic weapons testing facilities and sharing&nbsp, technical information necessary for developing and manufacturing the technologies.

By 2028, the arrangement will support up to six multilateral test flight campaigns with a US$ 25 million funding pool. According to the Breaking Defense report, Heidi Shyu, the senior civil in charge of research and engineering at the US Department of Defense, stressed the value of working together to advance the development of crucial enabling technologies like guidance and control and high-temperature materials.

John Healey, the UK’s defence minister, praised AUKUS lovers ‘ commitment to upholding international cooperation, promoting global peace, and promoting technological prowess over adversaries.

The UK statement also noted the use of up to 90 manufacturers through the Hypersonic Technologies and Capabilities Development Framework, which have away to$ 1.27 billion in commercial space.

The groundbreaking agreement, which aims to keep AUKUS partners at the forefront of the development of military technology, underscores the strategic significance of fast weapons in contemporary security.

By incorporating fast, exact strikes and a faster operational tempo, adding hypersonic weapons to existing military installations increases battlefield effectiveness, but it also raises interoperability, logistics, and infrastructure issues.

By 2030, the UK plans to have a fast weapon operationalized, according to a report from the UK Defense Journal in August 2024. Lord Coaker, the UK’s Minister of State for Defense, cited in the UK Defense Journal as saying that the UK’s Pillar 2 Advanced Capability Partnership ( AUKUS) has highlighted its position as a leader in hypersonic technology.

The UK Ministry of Defense’s Team Hypersonics is cited in the report as being a part of 90 providers ‘$ 1.26 billion Hypersonic Technologies and Capability Development Framework.

It notes that the weapon, expected to reach Mach 5, is designed to escape present air defenses and that testing of critical technologies, including a fresh propulsion system, is live, with deployment options for land, fighter jets, or warships also being considered.

The US Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile ( HACM) will be tested by Australia’s Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF ) F/A-18F Super Hornets over the Woomera Test Range, according to an article in Asia Times in June 2024.

This partnership, part of the US-Australia HACM system, aims to strengthen both nations ‘ air-launched hypersonic capabilities. The weapon, developed by Raytheon and Northrop Grumman, features a two-stage style and is expected to reach Mach 5.

The checks, driven by limitations in US testing facilities, reflect the deepening security agreement under the AUKUS deal. Australia’s Defense Strategic Review 2023 underlines the importance of long-range hit abilities for its anti-access/area neglect strategy.

By combining resources and expertise, the AUKUS deal facilitates cooperation in the testing and development of hypersonic technology. The deal aims to boost innovation and research, increase administrative readiness, and address China and Russia’s growing threats.

Mikayla Easley mentions in a February 2023 National Defense Magazine post that the&nbsp, AUKUS deal facilitates combined testing and development, leveraging Australia’s superior fast research facilities, such as the Woomera Range Complex, and the UK’s expertise in aircraft and propulsion.

She points out that AUKUS encourages creativity and preparation in both research and development, making it possible for China to maintain a competitive edge in the face of competition.

As for China’s progress in fast arms, Asia Times reported this month that China’s fresh GDF-600 hypersonic weapons, unveiled at the Zhuhai Airshow by the Guangdong Aerodynamic Research Academy, represents a significant improvement in fast systems.

Capable of reaching speeds of up to Mach 7 and ranges between 200 and 600 km, the GDF-600 may take several submunitions, including hypersonic weapons, robots, and loitering weapons.

With its versatility, it can carry out reconnaissance missions, electronic warfare ( EW), and kinetic strikes on multiple targets. Integrating EW weapons, such as non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse ( NNEMP ) devices, enhances its ability to disrupt enemy communications and radar systems.

However, AUKUS faces strategic uncertainty as the US transition to a second inward-looking Trump administration, which could impact its progress on collaborative high-tech projects such as hypersonic weapons and nuclear submarines.

In a Washington Post article this month, Michael Miller predicts that US President-elect Trump’s return could disrupt the alliance. Miller points out Trump’s unpredictability with regard to alliances, citing options like allowing AUKUS to be discontinued while urging US strategic alliances or increasing Australian defense spending.

Additionally, Gideon Rachman claims that as Trump ascends to power and that Australia is overly dependent on US dominance in a Financial Times article from February 2024. The UK defense industrial base, according to Ravman, is in the same boat as Australia because of its weakness.

However, Peter Dean mentions that AUKUS will likely continue to exist despite changing priorities under a second Trump administration in an article from June 2024 for the Lowy Institute think tank.

Dean emphasizes AUKUS’s bipartisan support in the US Congress, which controls funding and has historically fought against Trump’s isolationist tendencies. He says that AUKUS is deeply integrated into the US defense bureaucracy, making it difficult to dismantle.

He points out that unlike the NATO alliance, AUKUS is a technology partnership focused on nuclear submarines, quantum computing, AI, and cyber capabilities. He claims that AUKUS thus aligns with Trump’s preference for greater financial contributions from allies.

Dean mentions that while Trump’s foreign policy is unpredictable, the strategic importance of AUKUS in countering China will likely ensure its continuation, emphasizing enduring US interests.

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Trump squeeze coming for vulnerably sandwiched South Korea – Asia Times

The Bank of Korea is often at the center of global financial discussion.

Despite Governor Rhee Chang-yong’s leadership, the team’s focus is on the US and Chinese economies’ respected markets and their respective markets, which are the two biggest imponderables for 2025.

Of program, Donald Trump’s returning to the White House ensures these two giants may meet, maybe creating a second unknown: a massive trade conflict the likes of which the globe has never seen before.

Rhee’s BOK is already on the spot thanks to local factors in Beijing and Washington, but both are already doing so. The chances of a US Federal Reserve rate cut at its policy meeting on November 28 are fluctuating, and they are decreasing day by day.

In any case, signs that US jobs growth may be slowing and that China’s home issue is continuing to cause depreciation support the case for a Fed easing walk.

Asian prices, meanwhile, is holding well below the BOK’s 2 % destination. According to the Korea Development Institute, a state-run think tank, “it appears that easing of monetary legislation through interest rate increases has been successful in reducing high prices since 2022.”

Yet Rhee’s selection is complicated by developments at home, especially near-record home loan amounts.

According to Ashok Bhundia, an analyst at the Institute of International Finance,” the central bank is in a difficult position where domestic demand is slower and inflation is below goal.” However, the decision is influenced by concerns about economic balance caused by high household leverage.

Bhundia’s bottom line is that “delaying the second level reduce will allow more time for evaluating the approaching US administration’s policy agenda and its possible impact on global trade, which had affect&nbsp, Korea’s growth and inflation outlook for 2025”.

As Trump 2.0 launches a 60 or more taxes on China, that plan may have a significant impact. And as Trump’s group slaps 20 % cover, across-the-board taxes on all products worldwide.

Trump’s government picks — including Robert&nbsp, Lighthizer, past and possible future business king — are mulling moves to degrade the dollar. This could be accomplished unilaterally by using aggressive currency market intervention or another” Plaza Accord” maneuver.

The dollar-yen pact that was used in this case was referenced in 1985. The top industrialized nations worked together to create it at Trump’s former hotel, the Plaza Hotel. Trump also wants to reduce the Federal Reserve’s independence, giving his White House influence over interest rate decisions. &nbsp,

Trump claimed in August that the Federal Reserve had “kind of gotten it wrong” in a number of ways. He continued,” I believe the president should have at least had a say, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful. And I believe I have a better sense of instinct than those who would frequently serve as the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

More than a Group of Seven central bank, this is more typical of China.

Trump has previously mentioned avoiding paying the government’s debt. In 2016, while running for president the first time, Trump said this about US government debt:” I would borrow, knowing that if the economy crashed, you could make a deal. And if the economy was good, it was good. So therefore, you ca n’t lose”.

Remember that Trump filed for bankruptcy six times as a businessman. In light of trade tensions, the Trump 1.0 White House considered robbing Beijing of its debt. It is obvious why a financial earthquake of historical magnitude could result from the US national debt being twice the size of the Chinese GDP.

China, meantime, is juggling dueling crises in property, local government finances, high youth unemployment, rising in-person protests and weak retail sales. With all of this, Beijing now has a mix of both fiscal and monetary stimulus.

It’s a concern, though, that” China’s response to deflationary challenges remains cautious”, says Jonathan Garner, an equity strategist at Morgan Stanley. Even before Trump arrives, this will restore enormous trade conflicts.

How Rhee balances Korea’s current challenges with what’s to come in 2025 — whatever that might be — is an open question. And one that goes beyond the BOK headquarters ‘ decisions in Seoul.

Korea’s sizable, open and trade-reliant economy often serves as a weathervane for global inflection points. That’s why Korea’s” sandwiched” reality these days is raising more than a few red flags.

This predicament was arguably coined in 2007 by then-Samsung Group head Lee Kun-hee. At the time, Lee described Asia’s fourth-biggest economy as sandwiched between wealthy Japan and low-cost China.

Now, though, Korea is caught in the middle of something of a quadruple-decker sandwich. It’s squeezed between a Japan that’s raising rates, a China that’s slowing and an imminent” Trump trade” causing extreme dollar volatility.

Economists who are considering policy options concur that a case could be made for the BOK to ease next week but also that it should wait until January.

Recent Korean data, according to Capital Economics economist Shivaan Tandon, “was somewhat encouraging because it suggested that the worst is probably over for domestic demand.”

Others are less sanguine. Dave Chia, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, thinks soft third-quarter GDP results are” concerning and could lead to South Korea missing the BOK’s 2024 GDP growth target of 2.4 %”.

Seoul, though, must accelerate moves to batten down the hatches as the Trump vs Xi brawl begins. Korea Inc. will suffer significant collateral damage, despite China’s immediate immediate target.

A blanket global US tariff of 20 % would be disastrous for Korea, which generates 40 % of gross domestic product ( GDP ) via exports. Then there’s how the Trump revenge tour might imperil key Korean industries, not least autos.

Trump has threatened 100 % taxes on all Mexican-made vehicles. If Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol does n’t agree to big trade concessions, Trump might widen those levies to include Korean vehicles. Japanese autos, too.

In an effort to maintain the peace, Korea Inc. might try to placate Trump in the same way Japan did in 2017.

” If tariffs get raised, the first alternative firms can consider will be raising direct investment and on-site production”, Korean Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo tells Reuters. ” There are ongoing investments already, and there is a possibility that investment could accelerate, followed by an increase in US-bound exports by small and medium-sized parts manufacturers”.

Cheong emphasized that Seoul would increase efforts to foster trade diplomacy. ” We can only respond to the new administration’s policy”, Cheong noted. ” Nevertheless, we will make efforts for trade to remain smooth, with not only the United States but also China”.

In 2023, Korea’s trade surplus with Washington hit a record$ 44.4 billion, Seoul’s biggest imbalance anywhere. That’s unlikely to go unnoticed in Trump World.

With his approval rating&nbsp, around 20 % &nbsp, at the halfway point of his five-year term, it’s not clear how much latitude Yoon has to cave in to Trump’s demands for trade concessions.

And what if, as many believe, Trump’s real goal with tariffs is to force China into a “grand bargain” trade deal? On the one hand, if Korea can avoid the financial havoc that will come with a new trade war, that could be good for the country. A US-China deal might, on the other hand, leave Korea with no one to watch out for.

Politically, being left out of a US-China deal could be just as bad for Yoon’s support rate as the economic hit from Trump’s tariffs.

Then there are the ways China might retaliate, including driving the yuan lower. Apple, Walmart, and other important US companies could always be subject to a manufacturing tax from Xi.

Beijing could also dump&nbsp, large blocks &nbsp, of its$ 770 billion of US Treasury securities. Yes, China would be reborn as a result of the US debt yield surge. However, Xi might speculate that as Washington’s borrowing costs soar as the dollar falls, the US would lose more.

Korea— and the Kospi stock index — would be in the crossfire more than most export-driven economies. These dangers and other factors contribute to Rhee’s BOK staff’s potential dread of 2025. Yoon’s administration, too, as its lack of urgency in implementing vital reforms comes back to haunt it.

Unfortunately, Yoon is but the latest Korean leader to win power pledging a supply-side Big Bang only to fall short. &nbsp,

Over the last 15-plus years, Korean government after government got sidetracked by political squabbling and short-term concerns. Leader after leader turned to the BOK to repair economic flaws rather than rebalancing growth engines to increase competition and productivity.

If only Yoon’s predecessor Moon Jae-in had put some notable wins on the scoreboard to rein in the family-owned conglomerates, or chaebols, towering over the economy. Moon talked a great game of pivoting toward” trickle-up economics”, but achieved little.

The same went for Park Geun-hye, president from 2013 to 2017. Korea’s first female leader promised to build a more” creative economy” and reduce the economic power of chaebols.

She made a promise to make room for startups to start generating their own economic energy instead of going the way of the top. Park, too, achieved little.

Before her, Lee Myung-bak, president from 2008 to 2013, had his own bold plan to generate 7 % growth and make Korea one of the&nbsp, seven largest economies&nbsp, via disruptive reforms. It was all talk.

Korea ca n’t bring bold policies to level playing fields, boost productivity, empower women, and inspire young entrepreneurs to take bold risks in the last 15 years.

Despite all the excitement surrounding Korea’s startup scene, the chaebol-heavy business climate provides only limited economic support for businesses to grow.

Korea is currently dealing with an issue with its economy’s speed at the same time. China, for all its troubles, has been speeding up Asia’s economic clock — and increasingly so.

China continues to invest big in dominating the future of semiconductors, electric vehicles, aerospace, renewable energy, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, robotics and green infrastructure. &nbsp,

As China’s production capabilities increase, Korea is having a harder and harder time keeping pace with the region’s top export power and revamping its policy mix accordingly.

It’s not saying or articulating a precise plan for the moment if the Yoon administration understands this challenge.

Why Japan Inc. has such a difficult time adapting to rapidly changing global dynamics is if we overlook the fact that things are moving more quickly outside of its walls. Korea must do a better&nbsp, job keeping an eye on the time.

Seoul wo n’t waste a second when Trump and China are scheduled to invade Asia in two months.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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If TikTok threatens national security why can Canadians keep it? – Asia Times

Last week, news of the American government’s abrupt decision to halt TikTok’s business in Canada sank.

Navigating internet policy in search of relevant information has since become a wild goose chase. Behind the state of enigmatic “national security risks” is a distinct lack of clarity.

François-Philippe Champagne, the leader of the economy, is well known for his efforts to cut back on China’s ties to the North American economy. He responded to requests for information on how Canadians may view the choice when asked by the media for clarification.

Even as American legislators pressed the company to publish its data access and control practices, TikTok pre-emptively established a Transparency and Accountability Center in 2023 to provide authorities with a behind-the-scenes look at their techniques and content tolerance practices.

TikTok accountability work

I was an expert in financial security when Canada banned TikTok on government devices next year, and I was curious as to why any workstations had entry to distracting cultural media applications in the first place.

Additionally, TikTok has provided clarity through Project Texas, a system that relocates information to American servers and conducts third-party assessments. Canada, however, has not engaged in or acknowledged for accountability efforts, perhaps bypassing a co-operative answer in favour of more severe restrictions.

I’ve always used TikTok, and I’ve never been one, and I’m just as interested in the program as I am in the well-known Twitter outfit, which has a lot of content management issues. Beyond willing moderation, the American government’s managing of TikTok raises important issues, including possible individual rights implications, from where I am.

Citizens are basically told they can use the app but at their own risk because they claim that national security risks are so severe that they ca n’t even be shared with the public without providing any discernible evidence.

For a blatant charm to fear, uncertainty, and fear appears to have been purposefully engineered to cause cognitive dissonance. It not only reinforces an autocratic approach but more importantly erodes one’s knowledge of surveillance, risk and protection.

Secrecy: Surveillance by darkness

Canada has avoided disclosing details about the alleged threats by opting for a mysterious federal safety review. Such steps set a dangerous precedent, promoting a “guilty until proven innocent” thinking. This impenetrable approach could also have a cold impact, stifling foreign investment in Canada, particularly in the electronic sector.

Questions are raised about the decision’s actual intentions by the secrecy surrounding it. It suggests that people might prefer to keep secrets about information that is of common curiosity rather than to share it with others.

Although it remains to be seen whether this was intended to inform other Chinese companies in Canada, these companies now operate in the wholesale, e-commerce, banking, energy, and resources industries, which are likely strongly watching the developments. Given that five different China-linked businesses have been unceremoniously shut down in Canada over the past two decades, that is especially true.

In order to conduct business in China, it seems more likely than not that American businesses operating in the Eastern nation, such as Magna, Bombardier, Saputo, and the Bank of Montreal, may soon encounter some retaliatory winds.

Setting a difficult law

If Canada is censoring a platform mainly because it owns it, it could be setting new standards for online freedom. In the name of safety, these actions could lead to the enactment of restrictions on platforms and services around the world, as well as stifling freedom of expression and access to information.

I recently argued that Zoom and its mysterious development and IP-access techniques during the Covid-19 pandemic posed a certain risk to children and students ‘ privacy and confidentiality.

In the name of safety and security, China’s understanding of privacy is fundamentally unique: Any organizations that collect data may offer unrestricted access to it in order for the government to inspect it. The Ministry of Public Security is required to have complete clarity and access to data in China under Article 77 of its Cybersecurity Law. Period”.

Because TikTok will no longer be around in our country, it will likely be hard for Canadians to obtain information about the company’s safety procedures, inquire about online restraint, and launch Protection Commissioner examinations once its practices are shut down and hundreds of employees are laid off.

Impact on government credibility

I certainly do n’t expect to have access to privileged information. But the secretive nature of Canada’s expulsion of TikTok ( or is it truly aimed at its parent company, ByteDance? ) risks undermining public confidence in government decisions at a time when it could be a fantastic opportunity to raise Canadians ‘ awareness of real security concerns.

If the general public views this action as an excessive, disrespectful overreach conducted under the guise of security, it may raise questions about corporate law enforcement practices and foreign policy decisions.

In the end, the manufactured dichotomy between a government agency’s inability to conduct upcoming privacy investigations on behalf of Canadians and a heavy-handed approach to urgent corporate expulsion seems both deliberate and calculated.

Although TikTok has, at least by all measures publicly available, demonstrated a level of transparency comparable to that of its peers in the same way that it is true of all social media companies when it comes to collecting and processing user data, it is also true that they do so.

At the University of Toronto, author and lecturer on information risk, enterprise privacy management, and fintech cybersecurity, Claudiu Popa.

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Taiwan needs to get ready for Trump 2.0 – Asia Times

The Japanese and Taiwanese have a common trait. Both countries have a deep sense of doubt about how effective American defense is. That problem is ringing out over as loudly as ever since&nbsp, Donald Trump&nbsp, won the November US national vote. But, in&nbsp, Taiwan’s case, it’s perhaps a more pragmatic issue. &nbsp,

Donald Trump’s campaign statement of support for Taiwan was not made clear during a Chinese friend’s opinion. Then he asked a handful of concerns about Taiwan’s future hopes under the new administration.

Q: What does Trump’s Taiwan scheme seem like during his second name? If Taiwan worry?

A: Taiwan was not an issue in the US vote plan. It never is ― for any member. Very few, if any, citizens base their choice of political candidate on their views of Taiwan.

Therefore, it should n’t be much of a problem that Trump did n’t provide a thorough explanation of his Taiwan policy during his campaign for president and even suggested Taiwan was n’t doing enough.

More importantly, ponder how Trump and his administration handled Taiwan during his first word from 2017-2021. While Trump was president, arms sales to Taiwan expanded considerably over the&nbsp, Obama government’s “weak” on China / “weak” on Taiwan functionality. &nbsp,

Furthermore, Taiwan’s isolation eased as the United States paid more attention to it. Also, senior US officials ( serving and former ones ) visited Taiwan. And, most importantly, Trump’s administration was the first one ever ― since Nixon opened up to China ― that stood up to the&nbsp, People’s Republic of China&nbsp, ( PRC ) and for the free world’s interests. &nbsp,

The&nbsp, Chinese Communist Party&nbsp, (CCP ) hated the Trump administration and his advisors handling&nbsp, China policy&nbsp, in particular: Mike Pompeo, Matt Pottinger, David Stilwell, Miles Yu, et al. That provides all the information you require.

But remember, always look at what Mr Trump does … hardly what he says.

How did Taiwan security issues be handled by the new case members?

The two case users most involved in Taiwan things are Senator&nbsp, Marco Rubio&nbsp, and Congressman&nbsp, Mike Waltz. They are referred to as national security advisor and secretary of state, both. Both have strong ties to the Chinese Communists and have powerful legislative histories aimed at halting and reversing PRC misconduct.

Both of them also know Taiwan’s value to the free earth. If Taiwan is willing to defend itself, they may exert great efforts to do so.

During Trump’s battle, he demanded that Taiwan pay security costs, which aroused heated debate. If we fear?

This was a devised discussion. Trump clearly observed that&nbsp, Taiwan does not spend roughly enough&nbsp, on its own defence. In truth, it has not done so for the last 30 years. &nbsp,

The President-elect is aware that Taiwan does not make every effort to protect itself while the majority of the US population will not tolerate ordering Americans to death there. That is current British politics ‘ reality.

Taipei also needs to comprehend this.

And most Americans, particularly those whose kids are US military personnel, agree with this statement. It applies not only to Taiwan but to the Western countries, Japan, Australia, and Canada, while also. &nbsp,

What actions should Taiwan take in response to stress to improve its security resources?

Above all, acknowledge Taiwan’s desire to improve its overall defence is reflected in the pressure it is feeling over security spending. Not just to increase spending on defence, but also to increase it. &nbsp,

Then do the second:

  • Prepare Taiwan’s citizens for a potential conflict. Visitors to Taiwan are frequently struck by Taiwan’s population’s disregard for the threat posed by the local PRC and their openly indifference.
  • Highly increase&nbsp, protection investing.
  • Rearrange the Taiwan war and its operating principles to make the People’s Liberation Army of China’s challenge more difficult. In order to accomplish this, some senior officials will likely need to retire, while younger, less hide-bound officers will have the opportunity to reform Taiwan’s defense and its tactics.
  • Fix Taiwan’s utterly dysfunctional defense supply system. It is far less successful than it should and could be.
  • Create a genuine civil protection plan that engages Taiwan’s civil population in national defense operations.
  • Counter Chinese&nbsp, social warfare&nbsp, and violently targeted the PRC’s second column in Taiwan. Furthermore, do a serious counter-intelligence efforts against persons spying for the PRC in Taiwan. There are apparently many of them.
  • Invest strongly in long-range precision weapons, bright sea mines, offensive&nbsp, computer skills and hardening Taiwan’s communications systems. This will help to strengthen Taiwan’s chances of surviving a Taiwanese abuse.
  • End the fatal proceed towards “renewable” power in Taiwan― and mass up Taiwan’s energy infrastructure. Those include companies of conventional electricity.
  • Make every effort to admonish Taiwan’s resolve to support itself and that it is capable of doing so. &nbsp,

If you do all of this, or the majority of it, Americans will probably have much higher support.

Trump is viewed as separatist and has the potential to undermine America’s stabilizing role in world affairs. May we fear? &nbsp,

No. 

Trump ( and his supporters ) are often called “isolationists” but what is the evidence? Look at Trump’s first four years ( 2017-2021 ).

US withdrawn from the earth, or not? No. &nbsp,

Which continuous forward-deployed US troops in the Asia/Pacific or Europe were brought home? Nothing.

Which empire ended with an alliance? Nothing.

One does not want to be an isolationist if one wants to be wary of engaging in foreign war or of sending young Americans to death. &nbsp,

In the same way, one does n’t become an isolationist if they insist that our allies and friends spend more of their own money and make sacrifices for their own young people.

If something, it’s common feeling.

The US cannot and should not be the nation’s officer, particularly on behalf of colleagues who’ve taken the Americans and their safety for granted. And yes, I’m referring to the Europeans, the Australians and Japan, among people.

Moreover, defending the US market from unfair trade practices by other countries is not internationalist.

It was believed for years that the US could bear any losses brought on by trade practices that were favoured by other countries ( including our friends ). It is not separatist to now wish to re-establish American manufacturing. Too much of it was moved elsewhere by America’s dozens group in the last 40 times. The carnage inflicted on America’s working class ( “deplorables”, “garbage” and “lower orders”, if you ask some American elites ) has been as damaging as an actual war.

This term “isolationist” is just another attack that’s thrown at Trump without any consideration given to exact proof. Some of those who use the nicknames have children who are military personnel. They are not at all affected by the negative effects of unfair business practices in other countries or the establishment of their own territories for the past four years. &nbsp,

Any final suggestions for Taiwan?

Do everything you can to show Taiwan’s ferocity for its flexibility, and then add more. The PRC may wait as a result. And more importantly, it may make the US and the country’s free countries more ready to defend Taiwan. Because of this, so many people are supporting Ukraine. It fought tenaciously for its own safety. Taiwan needs to prepare right away.

God helps those who help themselves. &nbsp,

So does the United States.

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Former US minister and previous US Marine official Grant Newsham. He is the author of the book <a href="https://www.amazon.com/When-China-Attacks-Warning-America/dp/1684513650″ target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>When China Attacks: A Warning To America.

JAPAN Forward was the first to publish this content. It is republished with authority.

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‘Climate finance’ saddles Pacific island nations with more debt – Asia Times

Pacific scholars are urging world leaders to enhance the climate finance spread system to support people living in small island nations as the UN climate summit approaches its last stage of negotiations.

The most extensive study on climate change in the Pacific was presented to the Conference of the Parties ( COP29 ) last week. People with lived experience are amplified by the Pacific Ocean Climate Crisis Assessment ( POCCA ). It compiles case studies and data on the climate impacts isle nations are now addressing and how to apply regional adaptation strategies.

According to the report, climate finance has been integrated into global economic models that adhere to growth aid’s designs.

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, as well as other major international financial institutions, will now serve as “accepted” entities for dispersing funds, adding product components, and making clear entry difficult for Pacific countries.

Loading the receiving nations with the highest bill

By the time money gets to people on the ground, about 72 % of it is in the form of loans. Personal contractors hired by developed nations to create climate-resilient facilities are the true beneficiaries.

What might have started out as a kind of donation ended up inflating the debts of the recipient nations in the Global South, particularly those in the Pacific.

Recent studies indicate that vulnerable island nations are currently losing US$ 141 billion annually due to extreme weather. By 2030, it is predicted that this will reach$ 1 trillion annually.

At COP29, climate finance is a crucial dialogue place, with the aim of boosting the contributions of the rich.

The Dubai climate conference last year agreed to establish a fresh fund to pay damages and costs incurred by natural disasters brought on by climate change. A group of small, developing nations spearheaded this political work, and it is crucial that this fund fills the latest climate finance gap.

However, there is only one factor that can close the gap between the resources already available and the required funds. To ensure that money is distributed in a way that people who already experience routine climate impacts are benefitted, we may also change the distribution method.

A traditional elevated house in the Solomon Islands, with an elder and a child in the foreground.
Homes are protected from flooding thanks to classic building methods. Photo: Kike Calvo / Universal Images Group

Indigenous information and regional adaptation

Additionally, our report makes use of a variety of climate-adapted methods, including relocating homes and settlements that are already in use by Pacific peoples.

Pacific peoples have much developed sophisticated adaptive abilities as the ancestors of the great navigators and coastal settlers who ruled the nation’s largest ocean for millennia. They have been adapting to change in the most environmentally friendly and compact techniques for centuries despite having roots in some of the world’s smallest and most difficult locations.

This includes southern protections from sea level rise and shore erosion as well as standard building methods that make more accommodating homes that are easier to restore.

The majority of Pacific Island version techniques are based on indigenous knowledge and skills that have been passed down through generations. For instance, the government in France has started funding the country’s version of risk prevention by constructing raised homes with floors 1.5 meters above ground level.

The Pacific Islands have also made an increasing effort to use ecosystem-based strategies that advance both populations and communities. Indigenous knowledge in Fiji has enabled the identification of indigenous vegetation that is suitable for reducing coastal erosion and flooding.

Relocating is a last-minute solution for adaptation. Two Fiji group transfer case studies are included in the report, which highlight the value of including all social groups in preparing to promote positive outcomes.

Changing the tale

Pacific peoples have developed social and ecological resilience systems that allow them to recover fast from disturbance because they are intrinsically linked to the ocean.

However, climate change has a significant impact on many Pacific residents. But the regular tale of vulnerability is difficult. It contradicts the very notion of native and aboriginal firm and resilience in the Pacific.

We must consider what is happening on the ground because climate impacts are complex, especially when using science-based models and the natural uncertainties to guide regional adaptation decisions.

To maintain a balance between top-down and ground-up methods to adaptation and endurance, the report recommends enabling channels that combine traditional knowledge with modern scientific methods and state decision-making tools.

On islands prone to drought, wave, and tropical cyclones have Pacific Island communities usually resided. With limited tools, they had to live on islands.

Over millennia, Pacific individuals developed native information, including social concepts and social structures, to live in these circumstances. Given existential threats and challenges, especially those facing reef island communities, we need to bring on climate-related aboriginal knowledge and practices.

In contrast to narratives of risk, legacy of endurance are key to successful weather version.

Steven Ratuva is chairman of the Macmillan Brown Center for Pacific Studies, University of Canterbury.

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Palestine’s outlook dark to bleak under Trump 2.0 – Asia Times

According to Jewish estimates, the amount of help reaching Gaza has fallen to a low in 11 months. And the kidnapping, by an military Arab group, of a fleet of 109 cars on November 16 has exacerbated the situation. Food costs are rising, and it is thought that Hamas soldiers are currently battling Israeli troops in some areas of the area.

Israel’s leadership, led by former US president Joe Biden, has consistently supported Israel in its political and military operations against Hezbollah, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and of course Israel’s hostile attacks against Iran. But all the while Biden has urged restraint.

After the worst murder of Jews since the Holocaust, Israel has the right to support itself, according to Biden, who addressed the G20 this year.

The US’s position on Israel is likely to change, based on the initial consultations made by President-elect Donald Trump to his foreign policy group.

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, Trump’s choice for Israeli adviser, has long been associated with the Christian christian right, which fervently opposes Israeli control of the West Bank.

Huckabee made his position apparent in a 2017 interview with CNN, saying:” There is no such thing as a West Bank. It’s Judea and Samaria]the republic’s bible name]. There’s no such item as a lawsuit. They’re areas, they’re districts, they’re cities. There’s no such item as an job”.

Democratic senator Marco Rubio, the man who would be the secretary of state, has publicly opposed a peace in Gaza. He just stated to reporters that he wanted Israel to “destroy every aspect of Hamas they could get their hands on.” These individuals committed vile acts.

A month out from the election, on October 5, Biden appeared at a White House press briefing and commented on speculation that Netanyahu’s apparent unwillingness to agree a ceasefire was motivated by US politics:” Whether he’s trying to influence the election, I do n’t know– but I’m not counting on that”, he said, adding that:” No administration has helped Israel more than I have. Nothing, none, none”, he said. ” And I think]Netanyahu] may consider that”.

Netanyahu must accept that the election results and Trump’s choice of steadfast supporters of his government as confirmation of a strategy that, at least today, has Israel in ascendancy. Israel’s unpleasant in northwestern Gaza shows no sign of slowing.

A new motivation for the ongoing defense activity appears to be emerging as more and more people are being forced southward.

Stress from the appropriate

Some political right-wingers, including members of Netanyahu’s administration, are currently calling for Jewish settlers to retake control of the northern Gaza Strip. These colonists see the Gaza Strip evacuation of 2005 as a “hillul hashem,” a blasphemy against God, as opposed to a tactical error.

Many now believe a similar style may be repeated in at least the northern half of the Gaza Strip as its 2 million Arab residents are squeezed even more into a shrinking space, just as IDF outposts in the West Bank have frequently been used as settlement building sites.

For the two most notable Catholic Zionists in Netanyahu’s state, Interior Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, the vote of Trump is the product that will keep on giving. Full conquest of what they refer to as” Judea and Samaria” is still a celebration for them and their power base if the long-awaited prophecy time is to be ushered in and their perception of Zionism realized.

Regardless of the wider repercussions Israel’s state to be both Jewish and democratic, Smotrich and Ben Gvir believe they have the global support to accomplish this.

Full conquest, according to the majority of observers, would effectively declare Israel an apartheid state unless all Palestinians received full citizenship and political rights. This is doubtful.

Netanyahu’s equations

Netanyahu knows this. However, he is no longer so dependent on Smotrich and Ben-Gvir because of the dynamic nature of his local elections. He now has a wider base of support thanks to the addition of a little bloc to his alliance under Gideon Sa’ar.

His approval rating has also increased significantly since Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in response to Hezbollah, according to recent elections. Netanyahu appears to be in an unafraid status despite a new boost in his ballot scores and a divided opposition.

He is also aware that Trump was elected as a transactional leader with a goal of reducing US involvement in international conflicts. Netanyahu is also aware that Trump’s first administration’s efforts to normalize relationships with Saudi Arabia and other Muslim countries have been undermined by the Gaza issue, at least for the time being.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has conditioned any measures being taken by the Israeli state and its alliance, the US, toward Israeli sovereignty by calling Israel’s military activities in Gaza a murderous.

Netanyahu may be aware that any change in that direction had fracther his coalition. He will also have a suspicion that Trump did try to use their own political influence to pressure Saudi Arabia and other Gulf kingdoms.

Reading Trump’s purposes is not for the uninitiated. Even so, Netanyahu did believe that the approaching US president will likely grant him political joy to come to an end to his wars. Many, of course, remains questionable. The Palestinians, however, will continue to bear the most of the load.

They can anticipate little assistance from the Arab globe, despite the fact that they lack effective management in Gaza or the West Bank. They now face a victory-seeking Jewish leading and the possibility of a US leader who will help him in every way.

Clive Jones is professor of local stability, Durham University

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