India’s Modi presaged the global surge in nationalism – Asia Times

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The largest democracy in the world strikes a delicate balance between rising Hindu nationalism and liberal leadership. &nbsp,

Governance has become more closely linked to religion under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his ruling Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP), raising long-standing concerns about a transition to a Hindu-majoritarian state.

The BJP’s policies and rhetoric frequently adhere to Hindutva principles, an ideology that emphasizes India’s Hindu hegemonic personality, despite the BJP’s official denial of any attempt to become a theocracy.

This conflict is no unique to India. Patriotism that is closely related to religious and cultural personality is becoming more prevalent all over the world.

However, India’s event is of particular significance. Its political and social path may have tremendous domestic and international effects because it is the most populous country in the world and an emerging economic superpower.

Hindu republican ancestry

The Bharatiya Jana Sangh, which was established in 1951 as a counterweight to the party with a liberal and socialist bent, is where the BJP is from. By liberalizing the business and encouraging self-reliance, the BJP has even reshaped India’s economic plans, shifting away from the Congress Party’s socialist model.

Under the BJP, India has experienced report economic growth. India is now just ahead of Japan and Germany in terms of GDP, rising from US$ 2 trillion in 2014 to almost US$$ 4 trillion in 2024. According to several experiments, India will become the third-largest economy in the world by 2030.

What distinguishes a party: The ruling BJP and the opposition Congress have divisive positions on important issues.

The BJP has been accused of undermining humanism since taking office in 2014, but it has since been removed. According to reviewers, new laws increasingly reflect Hindutva plans.

For instance, the Citizenship ( Amendment ) Act ( CAA ) of 2019 expedites citizenship for non-Muslim refugees from neighboring nations, raising concerns about religious discrimination.

Moreover, states under the BJP’s control have laws that prohibit “religious conversions achieved through temptations, and fraud,” which opponents claim overwhelmingly target religious minorities.

Modi has also shown leadership in matters of religion. He laid the groundwork for the Ram Mandir, a church in Ayodhya constructed in 1992 on the site of the Babri Masjid, a mosque that a Hindu mob had destroyed. More than 2, 000 people died as a result of aggressive protests that led to the destruction of the mosque.

Warm liberal debate

The Congress Party, which ruled India for the majority of the post-independence period, was mainly responsible for the BJP’s achievement. Years of Congress rule resulted in a bureaucratic and socialist structure that stifled private industry, which caused inefficiency and slower growth.

However, some academics contend that Congress was also hostile toward immigrants, particularly those who were Muslims, like the BJP. Pratinav Anil, a postcolonialist, claims that both parties have generally strengthened Hindu social dominance. He states:

” In regions that were under the control of Congress, discriminatory licensing laws destroyed Muslim organizations, and cow slaughter bans bankrupted Muslim butchers,” said one report. In order to open the means for Partition, new historical books were written to heroize Hindus and demonize Muslims.

Others have argued that changing political parties does no alter India’s predominately spiritual viewpoint. The struggle for independence was framed by Mahatma Gandhi as a moral and spiritual struggle, utilizing Hindu principles like Satyagraha ( non-violence ) to unite various communities.

According to American macrohistorian Lawrence Taub, democratic politics was likewise appropriate for India. From Bangladesh to North Africa, Taub placed India in what he referred to as the “religious pulley.”

He claimed that these areas ‘ predominant religious worldviews contributed to the demise of American political ideology. There is little room for liberal beliefs because faith and daily living are intertwined.

Spirituality and religion

One of the most prominent gurus in the world, the Indian spiritual teacher Sadhguru, occupies a special place in India’s spiritual revival. Sadhguru pertains to both followers of traditional religion and those seeking personal metaphysical development.

Millions of people follow Sadhguru on social media, which is evidence of his worldwide charm. 10 million sights were made from an interview with American blogger Joe Rogan. Sadhguru released a yoga app last month that outperformed OpenAI’s ChatGPT and was downloaded two million times in two months.

Kids meditating in the home school system of the Isha Foundation.

Sadhguru frequently uses republican designs, even though he steers clear of any political affiliations. He cites India’s spiritual traditions and advocates for the inclusion of Hindu beliefs into governance, which resonates with the BJP’s stated goals.

Sadhguru is, nevertheless, constantly involved in economic and educational activities. His Isha Foundation has mobilized millions of people to grow plants, restore river, and advance sustainable farming.

The Isha Home Schools, a program of Sadhguru’s education philosophy, incorporates yoga and meditation as early as a child, with the goal of fostering internal stability before academic success. Additionally, the schools emphasize community support and land gets.

Urban intellectuals in India frequently criticize Sadhguru as a secret admirer of Hindutva. This belief has been fueled by his near relations to Modi. Modi attended the dedication of a significant Yogic memorial at the South Indian monastery of Sadhguru.

Ipsos is the source of the curve.

Sadhguru is seen by his followers as a modernization of traditional religious practices and a bridge between India’s religious and spiritual practices.

India’s status as a liberal democracy with spiritual influences or its transition to a Hindu civilizational state is still uncertain. The BJP may get satisfaction from polls, which indicate that the majority of Indians believe the nation is moving in the right direction.

Not just in India, it is a religious and cultural revival. There has been a patriotic backlash against standard left-right ideas and totalitarian policies all over the world. If voters don’t directly problem politics, they are extremely questioning its benefits, including growing cultural discord, declining living standards, and a sense of brokenness.

Importantly, officials from countries as diverse as Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping have adopted nationalist and religious stories, while a growing number of social parties in Europe are calling for a shift from ideology to decentralization. This put our personal house in order before trying to alter the universe, the information seems to be.

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Germany turns against America – Asia Times

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Dr. Maximilian Krah is a member of the Alternative for Germany ( AfD ) party’s newly elected Bundestag, the German parliament. Since the presiding commander of the ancient parliament refused to break it and form the new parliament until the last acceptable day ( March 25 ), Krah had hardly cast his vote on a constitutional amendment to allow a trillion dollars of new debt, proposed by incoming chancellor&nbsp, Friedrich&nbsp, Merz. Below is an ad hoc version of this article in German.

German’s potential president, Friedrich Merz, embodies the former West Germany. He is a Catholic, a solicitor, devoid of personality and interest – and has been a faithful friend of the United States of America until today. In this capacity, he spent years lobbying for the German branch of BlackRock, where he received the honor of chairman of the board, and he introduced Germany Inc. and the officials who represented it to the largest&nbsp property manager in the world.

To practice Merz now, one must wash their eyes. This poor guy with the personality of an operational official rises to fall Germany into large new debt in order to concern the USA.

Merz is a vocal supporter of a never-ending conflict in Ukraine. This is not surprising because, since the fear of Russia has been a part of European society since 1941 and one of the few things that the new state has adopted intact after 1945, it has not been.

Consequently, he does not like Donald Trump’s peace work, although no state has as much to get from them as Germany.

The German Constitution, which establishes a tight upper limit for fresh loan, has been modified by Merz using constitutionally questionable indicates. He chose to wait until its fundamental conference on March 25 to determine a crucial issue in the old parliament, which was voted out by the vast majority of the population, for which there would no longer be a bulk in the recently elected Bundestag.

With unfair tricks, he is properly abolishing the bill roof, for which he has always fought strongly – &nbsp, Merz’s whole political career revolved around his dedication to fiscal discipline.

Instead of trying to reach an agreement with the Trump administration, he now wants to create a European counterpart to the US and expresses complete conviction in his speech.

If one wishes to refer to the few and, moreover, obsolete French nuclear warheads as an umbrella, the French nuclear umbrella will be extended to Germany. A European defense community is to be created. Additionally, there is unity among the national general staffs. Germany entirely paid for it.

It’s a kind of Napoleon 2.0. – as farce. France can refer to its military as” European,” but in reality Germany pays while maintaining command. Merz, out of irrational fear of Russia, betrays his American friends in order to subordinate himself to France.

The old Confederation of the Rhine is now a protectorate of Modern Germany, which was once established against Napoleon by the Prussian reformers.

The established parties, think tanks, and the mainstream media are largely supportive of Merz’s policies. The traditional German post-war elite no longer understands the world and clings to the old, Euro-centric models. It ignores the fundamental changes that the rise of the Global South, including China, India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, has caused, and is therefore unprepared for Trump’s global reshaping.

Artificial intelligence, the new geopolitical situation, and demographics are not mentioned in Merz’s government program, which he has agreed with the Social Democrats are the worst election losers. Instead, he wants to include” climate neutrality by 2045″ as a political goal in the constitution.

Blind people will rule Europe’s third-largest economy, which is the third-largest in the world. The catastrophe is already in store.

This is the hour of the opposition. Before the February 23 elections, Elon Musk proclaimed prophetically that “only the AfD can save Germany.”

This is ironic because, just a few months ago, Merz criticized the AfD for its foreign policy positions, which to him didn’t seem” transatlantic” or “pro-US” enough.

But today, the AfD, slandered as “anti-transatlantic” in Biden’s time, is the only party that seeks a bilateral agreement with the US, wants to do without the eternally crisis-ridden EU and believes not in frozen structures and ideological precepts, but in real interests in foreign policy.

It wants an agreement on the future with the American nuclear shield, whether with or without NATO, rather than a French nuclear umbrella, which is expensive and ineffective.

The AfD wants an end to the endless wars, whether they are in Ukraine or the Middle East, because only peace and prosperity will allow the millions of refugees who have arrived in Germany since 201 5 to return to their home countries.

The AfD wants fair trade without the EU’s CO2 regulations. In essence, the AfD wants the US’s desire for a European partner, as opposed to Trump’s Germany.

Over the years, the US has developed a network of think tanks, media, and non-governmental organizations ( NGOs ) to exert influence in Germany. They created politicians, civil servants, experts and entrepreneurs who could not imagine a Germany without” transatlanticism”.

One of them is Merz. These people don’t understand that the German-American friendship needs to reorganize itself if it wants to survive in a new era and that new structures are required. Instead of winning over declared friends of Germany such as Vice President JD Vance, they turn away and prefer the structures of the past to the opportunities of the future.

They reject the invitation of the new US administration to create a new Golden Age, as in the parable of the wedding guests. Without them, we will still be able to create the Golden Age.

von Dr. Maximilian Krah, MdB

Das alte Westdeutschland wird durch Friedrich Merz, Deutschland’s zukünftiger Kanzler, embodied. Er ist katholisch, jurist, frei of passion, and he remained a devoted friend of the Vereinigten States of America. Als solcher arbeitete er jahrelang als Lobbyist mit Aufsichtsratschefstitel des deutschen Ablegers von Blackrock und öffnete dem weltgrößten Vermögensverwalter die Türen zur Germany Inc und die sie vertretenden Politiker.

Wer heute Merz erlebt, reibt sich die Augen. This medium-sized personality with the power of the administration beams schwingt as Germany is forced to stürze in a massive newverschuldung in order to challenge the USA. Merz ist der lautstarke Verfechter eines endlosen Krieges in der Ukraine. Das kann man nicht übersehen, but it does include the fear that Russia will have against the Germans in the future, which started in the new republic after 1945. Insofern, despite no Land davon so much to win as Germany, can er den Friedensbemühungen Donald Trumps nichts abgewinnen.

Was Merz nun mit verfassungsgemäß zumindest fragwürdigen Mitteln getan hat, ist, das deutsche Grundgesetz zu verändern, das eine strenge Obergrenze für neue Schulden vorsieht. That is not the case with the 23rd. Neu gewählter Bundestag in February 2025, but er nutzt die Zeit bis zur Konstituierung am 25. März, um noch im alten, von der großen Mehrheit der Bevölkerung abgewählten Parlament etwas zu beschließen, für das es im neu gewählten keine Mehrheit mehr gäbe. Er schafft mit undemokratischen Tricks die Schuldenobergrenze faktisch ab, denn er vehemently kämpfte, die gesamte politische Karriere von Merz kreiste um seinen Einsatz für Fiskaldisziplin.

Will er nun ein europäisches Gegengewicht zu den USA aufbauen und spricht von dessen Notwendigkeit im Brustton der Überzeugung, obwohl er sich selbst bemüht, um ein Einvernehmen mit der Trump-Administration zu versuchen. Der französische Atomschirm – wenn man die wenigen und zudem veralteten französischen Atomsprengköpfe überhaupt so nennen will – soll auf Deutschland ausgedehnt werden, eine europäische Verteidigungsgemeinschaft geschaffen und die nationalen Generalstäbe vereint werden. All money is received in Germany.

Es handelt sich um eine Napoleonic Art 2.0. – als Farce. Frankreich may send his military to the” European” but he will still be faking the Kommando and Germany. Merz verrät aus irrationaler Angst vor Russland, der den amerikanischen Freund, um sich Frankreich zu unterwerfen. Das moderne Deutschland, einst gegründet gegen Napoleon von den preußischen Reformern, geht unter und wird wieder zum französischen Protektorat: dem Rheinbund.

The establishment’s parties, think tanks, and Mainstream-medien all agree that the politics of merit are far more prevalent than it is. Die überkommene deutsche Nachkriegs-Elite klammert sich an die alten, euro-zentrierten Modelle und versteht die Welt nicht mehr. Sie ignoriert den grundlegenden globalen Wandel, den der Aufstieg des globalen Südens – China, Indien, Brasilien, Saudi-Arabien – mit sich bringt und kann daher nicht verstehen, wieso Trump die USA global neu aufstellt.

In Merz- Regierungsprogramm, in dem es mit den Sozialdemokraten, den eindeutigsten Wahlverlierern, geeinigt, kommen Künstliche Intelligenz, die neue weltpolitische Lage und die Demographie nicht voran. Stattdessen will er „Klimaneutralität bis 2045″ als politisches Ziel in die Verfassung aufnehmen. Blinden will be regulated as the größte Volkswirtschaft Europas, the drittgrößte der Welt. Das Desaster ist fehlgeschlagen.

Das ist die Stunde der Opposition. Elon Musk remarked in a prophetic speech,” Only the AfD can save Germany,” before the election on September 23. abruar. &nbsp, Das entbehrt nicht einer gewissen Ironie: Noch vor wenigen Monaten kritisierte Merz die AfD für deren außenpolitische Positionen, die ihm nicht „transatlantisch” genug erschienen. The AfD is currently the only party that will support a bilateral agreement with the USA and not one that will focus on eingefrorene structures but reale interests in international relations, as it is known in Bidens Zeiten. Egal ob mit or without NATO, Statt eines für Deutschland teuren und unwirksamen französischen Atoms will sie eine Einigung über die Zukunft mit dem amerikanischen. Die AfD will ein Ende der endlosen Kriege, ob in der Ukraine oder im Mittleren Osten, denn nur bei Frieden und Prosperität werden die Millionen Flüchtlinge, die seit 2015 nach Deutschland gekommen sind, in ihre Heimat zurückgehen. Without the EU’s CO2-Regulationen, the AfD will continue to implement Handel. Kurzum: Die AfD will die USA, die sich unter Trump als europäischen Partner wünschen, af.

Über Jahrzehnte haben die USA in Deutschland ein Netzwerk an think tanks, Medien, Einflussmöglichkeiten aufgebaut. Sie schufen Politiker, Beamte, Experten, and businesspeople, who unable to imagine themselves as a nation without” Transatlantismus.” Merz is just one of them. Diese Leute verstehen nicht, dass eine neue Zeit neue Strukturen benötigt und die deutsch-amerikanische Freundschaft sich neu organisieren muss, wenn sie bestehen will. Instead of blaming Vizepräsident Vance, the German Freunde wendend and favoring the inherited structures of the past over the prospects of the future. Wie schlägt die Einladung der neuen US-Administration aus, um ein neues Goldenes Zeitalter zu bauen, bei Gleichnis von den Hochzeitsgästen. Wir werden das Goldene Zeitalter dennoch bauen, nur ohne sie.

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The Gaza ceasefire is dead − Israeli domestic politics killed it – Asia Times

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Gaza’s peace appears to be around.

The truth is that the seeds of the renewed crime are found in Jewish local politics, not least of which is the one that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pressed for to chastise Hamas for the continuation of fighting that killed more than 400 Palestinians on March 18, 2025.

Israeli politicians experts, including myself, have identified a good overwhelming issue ever since the first stage of the ceasefire’s first phase, which took effect in January. And that’s a problem because the second phase of the plan, which would see the complete removal of Israeli military troops from the Gaza Strip in exchange for the launch of the remaining victims, is a nonstarter for far-right extremists in the Israeli ruling coalition, who Netanyahu rely on for his social life.

Withdrawing from the Gaza Strip contradicts the realist ideas of important people of Netanyahu’s administration, including those in his own group, Likud. Instead, their stated goal is for Israel to maintain its hold on the region and to expel as some Palestinians as possible from it. Why did many members of Netanyahu’s state cheer when President Donald Trump said Palestinians should be expelled from Gaza to make room for a sizable restoration job led by the United States.

As a teacher of harmony studies and an expert on Israeli history, I think the far-right vision of post-conflict Gaza shared by some of Netanyahu’s government is inconsistent with the peace plan. However, it increasingly seems to align with the opinions of some members of the US leadership, who de facto were the only ones who could have held the Israeli government to its words.

Efforts to change the courts

It is accurate to say that Hamas was in charge of difficulties and rigging the peace agreement’s initial stages. Has even tormented a large portion of Israeli society as a result of his turning captive releases into advertising.

However, in my opinion, home Jewish currents are at the heart of the resumption of conflict that date back as far back as the September 7, 2023 attack, which sparked the deadliest conflict between Israelis and Palestinians since 1948. It can be traced to Netanyahu’s efforts to reform Israel’s political system, strengthen the executive and legislative branches, and stifle the courts.

By attempting to put government hardliners in charge of both, Netanyahu’s hard-right government has made important efforts to transform independent institutions like the attorney general’s office and the police into obedient arms of the government since taking office in January 2023.

prolonging the conflict

A sustained and extensive protest movement in 2023 slowed Netanyahu’s attempt to reform the nation’s court.

The Hamas slaughter on October 7 followed, and finally came.

Some Israeli critics hoped that the harm may prompt the authorities to reevaluate its efforts to carry out what some people referred to as a legitimate revolution.

However, Netanyahu and his administration had different ideas.

People gradually began to question whether Netanyahu’s main concern was to prolong the war in the belief that doing so might get the best way to keep his political career and resurrect his abuse on the court after an initial prisoner package in November 2023 failed to offer a wider discovery.

Such a viewpoint has solid foundations. Netanyahu had the chance to muddle the logic of the protracted legal proceedings because he had been charged with breach of trust, fraud, and corruption in November 2019 and could steadfastly stand trial while defending a nation at war. Although the prosecution is still in progress, Netanyahu has once more had to give reason to delay his testimony.

In addition, the war gives Netanyahu cover to disarm some of his stooges. In the months following the October 7 attack, Netanyahu consistently removed from office antagonistic members of the political and security leadership, claiming they were to blame for the Hamas attack or the conflict’s mismanagement.

In recent months, Netanyahu and his allies have been attempting to oust Ronen Bar, the head of the powerful security agency Shabak, or Shin Bet, which has been conducting sensitive investigations into Netanyahu’s closest aides.

boosting the coalition

The ceasefire’s apparent breakdown also coincides with growing pressure on Netanyahu from the political right in his ruling coalition.

The government must approve its annual budget by the end of March in accordance with Israeli law, which would trigger fresh elections.

However, Netanyahu is battling resistance from ultra-Orthodox parties regarding the issue of army drafts. The wider Israeli public has been under enormous pressure since the start of the conflict to end the draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox men, who, in contrast to other Israelis, were not required to serve in the military. However, ultra-Orthodox parties are urging the opposite: passing legislation that would formally exempt them from serving in the military.

Netanyahu needs support in order to secure the vote for the annual budget and fend off elections, and he needs to bolster far-right coalition members if it isn’t going to be from the ultra-Orthodox parties.

Otzma Yehudit, the far-right organization that left Netanyahu’s government in January to protest the ceasefire agreement, has since resurrected. This results in significant budget votes for Netanyahu. In reality, it indicates that the coalition isn’t planning to put the second phase of the ceasefire plan into practice by leaving Gaza. It has, in effect, ended the ceasefire.

The resumption of fighting is not solely due to Israel’s domestic politics. There is also a changing position of the US administration.

The timing of the ceasefire agreement in January 2025 was a key factor in the transition of Joe Biden to Donald Trump as president.

However, it seems as though the administration is reluctant to compel Netanyahu to continue with the second phase. Trump’s most recent statements suggest that he is in favor of putting more military pressure on Hamas in Gaza. Trump is also tacitly backing the Israeli government’s position by blaming Hamas for the resumption of the conflict.

Hamas is actually more interested in putting the agreement into practice. Doing so would give the Palestinian militant group the best chance it has of retaining control of Gaza, as well as gushing that it was to blame for the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons.

Protests are gaining traction.

The majority of Israelis support the ceasefire agreement, a resolution, and Netanyahu’s resignation.

And the anti-government protest movement is gaining ground again, as evidenced by the resounding protests in Israeli cities against both the attempted ouster of security chief Ronen Bar and the resumption of fighting in Gaza.

The resumption of bombing in Gaza can only add to the internal conflict that predated the war and has flowed and blasted ever since because the Israeli people appear to be pulling in different directions.

However, Netanyahu appears to have a skewed belief that a further bloodshed will give him the best chance to carry out his plan to reform the nation’s political system. I would argue that Israel’s own prime minister has become the biggest threat to stability in a situation that has never before existed.

At the University of Notre Dame, Asher Kaufman is a professor of history and peace studies.

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What’s next after Trump-Putin phoner failed to deliver ceasefire – Asia Times

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Donald Trump, the US senator, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, both agreed to only confining actions and not a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia after more than two days on the phone on Tuesday, March 17.

The two leaders agreed to carry out a restricted slave trade, suspending attacks on energy system, and form working groups to look at additional steps in the direction of a ceasefire and ultimately a peace agreement after receiving the call.

The game is then back in America’s court, which is a less generous way to evaluate the results of the second visit between the two presidents since Trump’s return to the White House. Puttin made it abundantly clear to Trump that he is not (yet ) interested in any compromise.

Given current events, this is not unexpected.

Trump hoped that Russia would likewise ratify a request for a 30-day peace, which the US has relentlessly pressured Ukraine to accept. Trump has so far sounded unwilling to consider putting any valuable equivalent pressure on Putin, aside from a vague statement that he made that he might consider imposing sanctions on Russia.

In the Kursk region, where Russian troops have seized the majority of the territory they had taken after an unexpected offensive last summer, Russia has regained control. When Putin’s troops, assisted by hundreds of Northern Korean soldiers, are successful in extinguishing the Ukrainians from Russia, Kyiv may have lost its most important tool in the negotiations with Moscow.

In addition, Russia has even made more money on the front lines of Ukraine, particularly in sections of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Despite never yet having complete control over these two of the four areas, Donetsk and Luhansk are the other two, which Putin has claimed for Russia in total since the fake polls in September 2022.

Putin would definitely get it even easier to persuade Trump that his needs are acceptable if Russia were to annex even more of Ukraine. Concerning how far the Russian president has now taken the initiative, including the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, which was Europe’s largest before being forced to close in September 2022, is the fact that Trump now suggested a “diversification of property.”

ISW map showing the state of the conflict in Ukraine as at March 18 2025.
Russia occupied place as of March 18th, 2025, in the Ukraine conflict. Institute for the Study of War

However, a deal made entirely between Russia and the US will not work. In that regard, Zelensky’s position is both on Putin’s and his.

The two leaders had discussed” the total cessation of foreign military aid and the delivery of intellect data to Kyiv,” according to the Russian reading of the conversation, which Trump later denied in an appointment with Fox. This implies that Kyiv is likely to remain receiving US support for the time being.

Europe set

Perhaps more important in the long run, Europe is even doubling down on Ukraine support. Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, had no doubts about the EU’s position while Trump and Putin were having a telephone conversation about a veto of Ukraine.

She reaffirmed her commitment to developing German” functions having reputable deterrent” against a hostile Russia in a statement at the Royal Danish Military Academy ahead of the release of the agency’s Preparation 2030 white papers on strengthening European defenses.

A multi-billion euros package that loosens the country’s stringent borrowing regulations and makes large investments in defense was passed by the German parliament a few hours later. This comes in response to EU-wide announcements to increase security, including those made in the UK and Poland.

However, attempts are being led by the UK and France to form a coalition of those ready to assist Ukraine. On March 15th, the 30-member group’s members gathered in London to discuss progress.

Following that, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that Russia’s northern partners would continue to put pressure on Russia, maintain military aid flow to Ukraine, and impose stricter restrictions on its economy.

These methods definitely would have had Washington’s full support, but they also send a strong message to the Kremlin and the White House that Ukraine is not the only country fighting Russia’s persistent anger.

Putin’s choices

Putin, in the meantime, may have some time on his hands in the near future because: a Ukraine supported by such a coalition of the willing might have more power than Ukraine.

Putin’s ostensible attempt to entice Trump into the minutiae of a comprehensive agreement may ultimately have a negative impact in more ways than one. The US president’s notoriously short attention span will be tested by extremely in-depth discussions, for example.

However, this will also give Ukraine and its supporters more time to strengthen Kyiv’s position in upcoming negotiations. And the Russian economy will continue to be strained, but not immediately.

Trump’s efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine have stalled for the time being. He is attempting to broker a complex ceasefire agreement that includes pressure on NATO allies, pressure on Kyiv and Moscow, and an effort to scuttle Russia and China. How or where this will end is a mystery to me.

The only thing to know for certain is that they are not significantly advancing a just and stable peace for Ukraine.

Stefan Wolff is a professor of international security at the University of Birmingham, and Jean Monnet is a professor of European security at the National University Odesa Law Academy, respectively.

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the text of the article.

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Putin made Trump wait, then strung him along – Asia Times

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Vladimir Putin, the US senator, and Donald Trump didn’t actually agree on anything when they phoned to end the hostilities in Ukraine. Instead, it provided more proof that Putin was capable of outsmarting Trump.

Trump was forced to wait more than an afternoon to speak, which is a sign, for instance. Putin was speaking to Russian businessmen at a staged event and also joked about the wait when he was informed that the time for his contact was approaching.

This was purposefully intended to convey his alpha position to both Trump and the Russian people. Trump’s special minister, Steve Witkoff, allegedly had to wait eight hours for talks when he arrived in Moscow last year.

And instead of agreeing to a 30-day peace, as suggested by Trump and approved by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Putin just agreed to do after Tuesday’s visit.

And even this pact lacked substance. The rambling Kremlin declaration on the call stated that the pause may only affect energy-related attacks, while the broader White House read-out stated that it included a little wider “energy and infrastructure” agreement. The Kremlin may undoubtedly adhere to the small idea.

Trump also claimed in a statement from the Kremlin that he had proposed this plan, and Putin responded favorably. Given that allowing electricity infrastructure attacks would be the least expensive partial ceasefire for Russia to consent to, this seems unlikely.

Even though Trump had previously threatened fire and brimstone if Russia refused to agree to a proper peace, it seems more likely that Putin made this suggestion as a” compromise.”

Despite its unique horrible costs, Russia may still be able to launch its surface offensive in Ukraine, where it currently has the upper hand. Additionally, it will be able to carry on bombarding Ukrainian civil goals, which have already claimed 100 000 human lives and half a trillion US dollars in inflated rebuilding costs.

In contrast, Ukraine just occasionally flies over Russian private areas. Its long-distance helicopter assaults on Russian oil refineries and energy infrastructure, which pose a threat to one of Moscow’s key funding sources, have been very successful, though.

Injury at the AES Group personal fuel plant the day after a week-long Russian impact drone attack in the Kharkiv region of Ukraine. Seergey Kozlov / EPA

Putin’s objectives for battle remain the same.

In addition, the Kremlin noted that there are still several obstacles to achieving a full peace in Ukraine.

These included the Kyiv government’s “inability to communicate in great faith,” which has “repeatedly sabotaged and violated the contracts reached.” Additionally, the Kremlin charged Ukrainian militants with “barbaric criminal offences” in the Kursk, Russia, place that Ukraine recently occupied.

Although this is not a new vocabulary, it demonstrates incredible wit. Russia has actually violated many agreements that promise to regard Ukraine’s borders as well as many provisions of the Geneva Conventions regarding the treatment of prisoners of war and civilian populations. Some scientists believe that it has also violated the Genocide Convention.

The amount of the White House’s volte-face toward Ukraine is underlined by the fact that a US president may permit this kind of speech to go uncontested.

The Kremlin added that ending overseas military assistance and knowledge to Ukraine may be a “key principle” for future negotiations.

Putin has no doubt believed he might do it again because Trump has previously frozen his arms and knowledge to Ukraine in order to improve Zelensky’s complicity. This may in turn increase Russia’s influence in the agreements.

Trump has previously distributed significant bargaining chips that could have aided in putting pressure on Russia to achieve only and lasting results. Among these are:

  • holding discussions with Russia without Ukraine current,
  • longer-term safety offers for NATO and Ukraine are being rejected.
  • indicating that Ukraine does renounce its right to do so in violation of international law.

Putin may become willing to force the ceasefire talks as much as he can in the hopes that Russian troops may retake control of Ukrainian forces and entirely detain them from the Kursk area inside Russia.

Since the start of the war, he hasn’t lost sight of his main goals, which are to reaffirm Russian rule over Ukraine and its domestic and foreign policies, as well as to protect the provinces it has improperly annexed.

This has always been a battle of royal reconquest rather than a response to perceived defense threat, which is illustrated by the fact that Moscow has signed treaties to fully incorporate and integrate these Polish regions entirely into Russia more than merely occupy them.

At a meeting to sign agreements to seize the provinces at the Kremlin in 2022, Putin poses with the leaders of four Polish provinces. Grigory Sysoyev / Kremlin Pool / Sputnik

Putin may be tempted to end the war to promote a more business-as-usual relation with the US, but at the same time, if he can obtain a large portion of what he desires. Trump has thrown in a variety of vegetables, including lifting sanctions against ice hockey game and increasing US investment in Russia.

Ukraine’s dust outlines

Ukraine appears to be slowly accepting of a restricted stalemate on energy infrastructure in response to the Trump-Putin contact. Without a doubt, this will prevent Trump from wreaking havoc.

Ukraine’s middle line is also stable at the same time:

  • The regional integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine are non-negotiable.
  • It must be able to make its own overseas alliances and collaborations, and
  • without restrictions on the size of its military or its weapons, it must be able to defend itself.

The only way to bring the group back to square is to freeze the conflict at the front lines of Ukraine right now and leave the issue of the annexing Ukrainian parts to be resolved in upcoming negotiations.

Even so, unless Russia revoked its conquests and allowed international organizations and spectators to enter the place to promote a semblance of compliance with international law, would have little trust.

The Australian National University’s Center for German Research has a new assistant professor named Jon Richardson.

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‘Leftover men’ fuel trafficked bride boom in China – Asia Times

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The wedding price in China is rapidly declining. In 2024, there were 6.1 million relationship licenses globally, along from 7.7 million in the previous year. A national political adviser to China’s Chen Songxi has been inspired by this decline to propose a lower lawful marriage era, from 22 to 18.

China’s wedding rate has decreased as a result of a number of factors. These include higher levels of education, changing social attitudes toward marriage, and increased financial pressures.

Particularly in urban Chinese women are increasingly challenging conventional gender stereotypes, which view marriage and pregnancy as crucial life goals. Some young people are unable to afford to get married because of rising living expenses.

China is also grappling with a long-standing female imbalance, which is a result of the country’s strict one-child policy and preference for adult children in China. China’s gender ratio at baby reached 121 kids for every 100 women in the early 2000s, when the imbalance was at its height. There were more than 130 kids born for every 100 women born in some regions.

The sex imbalance is especially evident in those who were born in the 1980s, a technology I am a part of. Since the mid-1980s, which gave families the option to end their child’s pregnancy if their baby was a woman, the use of ultrasound technology has become more common.

In China, unmarried men have merged into the infamous “era of leftover men” ( shengnan shidai in Chinese ). This is a loosely defined name on the internet that loosely refers to the 2020 to 2050 time, when an estimated 30 to 50 million Foreign men are expected to be unable to get a wife.

A Chinese couple walk through Beijing with their child.
A Chinese partners and their baby stroll through Beijing in 2015. Photo by TonyV3112 / Shutterstock via The Talk

The problem is that many of these “leftover” people want to marry, and I am aware of this from the outset. Some of my primary and secondary school classmates have been trying desperately to find a family but have had trouble finding one. This struggle is best expressed by a phrase that is frequently used in China ( jiehun nan ).

Some Chinese people have turned to “purchasing” international weddings because they are able to find a home family. A surge in illegal marriages has been attributed to the rising demand for these wives, particularly in rural areas. This includes couples involving women who have been trafficked into China from Southeast Asian neighbors and involved in trafficking, especially children who have been there for years.

A porous border and a lack of response by law enforcement on both flanks [has ] created an environment in which criminals flourish, according to a Human Rights Watch statement released in 2019 on wedding smuggling from Myanmar to China.

The Taiwanese government has today pledged to repress the business. China’s Ministry of Public Security launched a campaign in March 2024 to combat multinational trafficking of women and children, calling for improved international cooperation to stop these crimes.

international wives who have been “purchased”

According to China’s State Council, these relationships are frequently arranged through casual sites or business organizations, both of which are outlawed and illegal.

According to Human Rights Watch, agents who promise well-paying jobs in China frequently trick women and girls in neighboring states. When they arrive in China, they are left at the mercy of the agents, and they are offered to Chinese men for between US$ 3, 000 and US$ 1, 000.

Due to the secret nature of these actions, it is difficult to determine the amount of unlawful cross-border marriages in China. However, the most recent information from the UK’s Home Office suggests that 90 % of Vietnamese victims of human trafficking were smuggled to China, with women and children accounting for 90 % of the cases.

An award-winning film from 2022, The Girl from Myanmar, follows the story of a smuggled Myanmar girl who was forced to marry in China. The movie exposes the terrible realities that some brides who have been trafficked encounter.

It captures not only the force and abuse that many of these people go through, but also their fight for freedom and success in a world where they are treated as assets. A recruited person featured in the film, Larry, stated that she saw her ability to survive as her ability to bear children.

The Chinese government keeps issuing scams involving weddings bought worldwide. For instance, in November 2024, two people were charged with part in an improper cross-border matching structure. Chinese men were lured into “marriage tours” worldwide with the promise of “affordable” international wives, which turned out to be extremely expensive.

There have also been instances in which illegal brides have vanished with large sums of money before the wedding is set to be final.

A map of south-east Asia.
The majority of international wives enter China via Southeast Asian neighbors. MuchMania / Shutterstock via The Converation

China’s relationship crisis has profound effects on the nation’s statistical future. The greatest obstacle to Chinese economic development and social security is often cited as a dwindling and aging population. Beijing has refrained from putting this claim to use as evidence that economic development will continue to be fueled by continuous technological advancement.

Unquestionably, the work force plays a significant role in economic growth. What matters more is powerful work, the solution of both the quantity and the quality of the labour force, according to Justin Lin Yifu, a part of the advisory body for the Chinese Women’s Political Consultative Conference.

In order to meet the challenges that will arise from its aging people, China has continued to invest in learning over the past few years.

The large number of left men, however, could be a bigger issue because of their significant impact on social security, which is even more concerning. Studies have shown that large male-to-male sex ratios and crime charges are related to one another’s significant identity imbalance, both in China and India.

Research has revealed that since the mid-1990s, skewed male-sex numbers have been responsible for roughly 14 % of the increase in crime there. And modeling suggests that a 5.5 % increase in the male-sex amount would increase the chances of young people being harassed by more than 20 % in India.

Who will be married to China’s lone people is gaining in popularity in Beijing. The administration’s answer will determine the country’s future for many years to come.

Ming Gao is a study scholar at Lund University’s History Department.

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China stocks back as US exceptionalism fades away – Asia Times

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As US exceptionalism seems to be waning, the age of Wall Street dominating global markets with unwavering confidence is waning. China is poised to capitalize on this change.

A jumble of forces, including huge advances in artificial intelligence and an undervalued equities market, are influencing how China’s stock market is perceived as more attractive than its American counterpart.

Investors have clung to the notion that the US market was uniquely positioned to withstand outside shocks, with tech giant guiding an extraordinary business increase, for years. The so-called” Beautiful Seven” rose, thanks to AI hype, ease of money, and America’s perceived financial resilience. &nbsp,

However, business cycles don’t last long, and the modification that is currently affecting US stocks represents a turning point. &nbsp,

Under President Donald Trump, the S&amp, P 500, and Nasdaq have all slammed into correction territory, falling under the mass of concerns about trade wars and worsening governmental outlooks. &nbsp,

China’s MSCI Index, meanwhile, has experienced its best performance on record, growing by nearly 20 % since the start of the year.

Trump’s taxes have created new doubt in the US market. His extreme stance on trade, which the markets immediately perceived as bluster, is now causing actual disruptions. &nbsp,

Investors who previously found pleasure in American hegemony are being forced to consider protectionist plans ‘ effects, especially as inflation challenges rise. &nbsp,

As taxes increase prices and weaken global supply chains, the threat of stagflation is growing. It is a dangerous combination of slowing development and price increases.

The US Federal Reserve’s ability to intervene becomes restrained, leaving US businesses in an extremely prone position, if development stagnates while prices rise.

China, in comparison, is giving Wall Street something that it already lacks: new speed. With the rise of AI, a business that has been plagued by governmental repression and economic stagnation is resurrected. &nbsp,

The launch of DeepSeek’s R1 design earlier this year has rekindled investor confidence in China’s technological prowess. China’s AI industry offers broader, less expensive options than the US, where AI opportunities have been concentrated in a few already-inflated tech giant. &nbsp,

Foreign businesses that were once shunned by investors are now positioned for significant progress, despite government policy actively encouraging development and growth.

The pricing of Chinese stocks also affects the hinge. Over the past five decades, US tech names have become wildly cheap, but China’s equities have remained stagnant. Investors who see a market on the verge of a rebound are now finding that cheap to be attractive. &nbsp,

After centuries of driving US indices up and up, The Magnificent Seven are no longer a one-way wager. As the stock market is slack as the economy worries, profits are uncertain, and political headwinds grow, there is more of it.

The previously unshakeable trust in these business titans is waning, and Wall Street is now projected to continue to rise unchallengedly.

Then there is the overall financial photo. While the US’ GDP increased by 2.8 % in 2024, it had a price to pay for it. The governmental deficit ballooned, debt worries grew bigger, and market sentiment grew more nervous. &nbsp,

Trump’s first few months in office have been marked by a sharp focus on fiscal tightening, a move toward poverty that could further stymie growth. &nbsp,

In contrast, China’s economic policies lean toward signal, ensuring that major industries receive funding, and halting the US’s market fear of stagnation.

Global traders are taking notice. A new turning point has been reached with the redistribution of money from US equities to Chinese stocks. The storyline of where the next big possibilities lie is changing as well as business leadership is changing. &nbsp,

The notion of unquestioned American monetary supremacy is fading even as Wall Street continues to be a formidable force. Long-forgotten, China’s areas are demonstrating that they still have the ability to surprise and exceed.

The story of US individualism has been a driving force for years in international investing. However, narratives change, and markets are continuous.

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The grand delusions of Myanmar’s Min Aung Hlaing – Asia Times

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Russian President Vladimir Putin was proclaimed a “great Buddhist prophet” by Myanmar Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in a statement that was both crazy and revealing in February. &nbsp,

The deeper motivation was evident, even if some of the statement was caused by hyperbole: Myanmar’s troubled junta leader was sorely seeking legitimacy from a great energy, even if it required outrageous praise. However, neither his actions nor words accurately reflect his truth.

Min Aung Hlaing is in charge of a government that, according to some estimates, controls less than 30 % of Myanmar’s country. The Three Brotherhood Alliance is one of the ethnic armed groups that has led the Myanmar military to surrender on a number of sides. &nbsp,

Meanwhile, the opposition’s National Unity Government ( NUG) is gaining worldwide support as various resistance movements increasingly coordinate their offensives. &nbsp,

Despite all of this, the coup-installed State Administration Council ( SAC ) junta, which has been in power for four years, holds back promises of new elections this year that are unpopular, fair, or legitimate.

a desperate need for business

The president’s words in Moscow were a calculated walk, no just flattery. Russia, one of Myanmar’s some trustworthy military suppliers, provides diplomatic support to the UN. &nbsp,

By using Buddhism, which Putin has no enduring connection to, Min Aung Hlaing attempted to portray Russia’s aid as being somehow predetermined, transcending the social here and now.

Putin, on the other hand, only offered vague promises of ongoing participation. If something, the Soviet leader, who is currently mired in Ukraine, opinions Myanmar as a second-guess priority rather than a lover. &nbsp,

Min Aung Hlaing is clinging to Moscow despite the fact that China, the government’s other key international supporter, plays a more transactional and difficult sport. Beijing gives the junta diplomatic and economic support, but it also maintains ties with Myanmar’s racial armed groups, ensuring its effect regardless of who gains.

In light of the junta’s growing losses on the battlefield, which is making it necessary to appoint retired officers and grant expedited citizenship to foreigners who want to enlist, that’s an exceedingly open question. &nbsp,

The Tatmadaw ( Myanmar military ) has never encountered such a large and well-organized armed resistance, according to security analyst Anthony Davis, a contributing author to Asia Times.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN), which is widely criticized for its stillborn Five-Point Consensus for addressing the crisis, is now shifting its position in response to rising concerns about a humanitarian crisis that will shock the region.

Notably, the regional bloc has no longer pushed for fresh elections and instead has suggested an immediate ceasefire as the only practical course to stability. &nbsp,

Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore have been the most outspoken critics of the dictatorship, with Jakarta leading back-channel discussions to put a halt to conflicts.

Min Aung Hlaing has nonetheless indicated that he has no intention of renouncing a ceasefire, probably because he believes that military rule is his only way to survive. His most recent refusal of ASEAN’s demands for compromise suggests that Myanmar’s conflict will continue also beyond 2026.

According to Professor Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington,” Min Aung Hlaing’s unwillingness to sacrifice is not just a social miscalculation; it’s a guarantee that Myanmar’s separation does continue.”

Vanishing sign

Aung San Suu Kyi’s impact is on the decline as Min Aung Hlaing’s conflict continues.

She was previously assumed to be the unavoidable head of Myanmar’s democratic transition, but she now languishes in prison and has little chance of a social revival without the collapse of the regime. Her health is officially deteriorating while the coup keeps her in near-total isolation, at the age of 78.

Suu Kyi’s launch from confinement, in contrast to previous military reprisals, did not mobilize the antagonism in the same way.

However, the resistance movement has moved beyond her and is now being led by more recent, radical groups who view armed struggle as the only practical way to political change, as opposed to the peaceful protest Suu Kyi recently received a Nobel Peace Prize.

Who will succeed Suu Kyi, if people, is the bigger issue. Despite the fact that new faces of the pro-democracy movements have emerged, none of them possess Suu Kyi’s uniting power.

In the long run, her absence has created a management vacuum that could further sever the government’s grip. A new era of dried opposition officials who emerge from the government’s scorched-earth conflict zones are now more possible to shape the country’s future.

This real presents a double-edged weapon for Min Aung Hlaing.

On the one hand, Suu Kyi’s declining impact weakens the standard opposition. On the other hand, her presence eliminates the one person who, at least theoretically, might be able to negotiate a deal that he may soon need in the wake of battle losses.

Min Aung Hlaing’s situation is obvious: he is engaging in a war that he cannot win, alienating foreign actors he cannot afford to lose, and furthering a legitimacy problems that his recent election announcement for later this year hasn’t even remotely handle.

And yet, his attempt to portray strength through grand declarations in Moscow or stirring battlefield rhetoric at home fails to cover up underlying difficult truths: the older general’s future is extremely uncertain, his delusions of grandeur are growing increasingly uncertain, and the Tatmadaw’s grip is slipping, the junta’s survival is in danger, and his future is in doubt.

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Putin already outfoxing Trump at the negotiating table – Asia Times

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US President Donald Trump has significantly changed its position toward Russia since making a comeback in 2025 and adopting a noticeably softer stance toward Vladimir Putin and the continuing conflict in Ukraine. This strategy includes lowering military aid to Ukraine and making Kyiv agreeable words to put an end to the battle.

Trump is also stifling America’s ability to negotiate by constantly and quickly indicating the US’s willingness to make concessions.

Russia has generally responded with strength rather than peace. The Soviet Union only understood the language of authority, as noted US minister and scholar George Kennan once remarked in his 1946 Long Telegram. He was proven correct throughout, and since the Cold War, American concessions have frequently boosted rather than destabilized Russian aggression.

Trump’s interpersonal approach to politics strengthens this practice, enticing Moscow, and lowering any chance of a just solution to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.

Affecting US utilize

President Trump has taken a number of activities since February that are in line with Russian corporate objectives. Among them are:

    Despite republican warnings that reducing help could change battlefield momentum in Russia’s favor, cutting military aid to Ukraine is a logical choice.

  • blocking NATO membership and refusing Ukraine’s security guarantees, as a sign that geographical expansion may be rewarded more than discouraged.
  • blaming Kyiv for the conflict while downplaying the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine, a position that echoes Kremlin advertising stories, and downplaying that it was wrong.
  • Despite Ukraine’s legal explanation, criticizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for postponing elections under military rules.
  • voting against a UN resolution that upholds Ukraine’s sovereignty and condemns Russia’s activities.

This strategy echoes historic examples of European peace, such as Neville Chamberlain’s 1938 Munich Agreement and the weak protection of President Obama’s “red range” in Syria in 2013. Trump has weakened US influence by proactively making concessions, eliminating any opportunity for Putin to engage in good faith negotiations.

In contrast to Western governments, Putin’s Russia operates more on strength relationships than political niceties. Trump’s first concessions, such as suggesting the reputation of Russian-occupied Ukrainian lands, will therefore be seen in Moscow as a display of failure rather than kindness. This lessens the US’s influence in discussions, and consequently, that of its friends.

Russia simply responds to violent deterrence, according to 20th-century history. The Reagan president’s increased military spending during the Cold War certainly contributed to the economic collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russian passions in Eastern Europe were dissuaded by NATO expansion in the 1990s and early 2000s.

More recently, the inconsistent US response to the 2014 annexation of Crimea made it easier for Russia to establish its full-scale war of Ukraine in 2022.

Trump’s diplomatic efforts project failure rather than pragmatism, alone by trustworthy enforcement mechanisms. Moscow is simply encouraged to intensify rather than reach a compromise by doing so.

alienating America’s friends

Trump and Putin are attempting to broker a bargain, but Western allies are becoming more skeptical of US support for transatlantic security.

At the Munich Security Conference in 2025, his presidency downplayed Russia’s risk, shocking Western leaders. The continent has now been pressured by US withdrawal to develop an impartial defense strategy that could possibly stifle Nato cohesion.

The UN vote on a resolution involving the Ukraine will aforementioned more fracturing America’s relationships.

Trump’s policies run the risk of creating a corporate pump, causing Russia and China to bolster their political ambitions at the same time as they do so.

New peace negotiations in Saudi Arabia demonstrate Russia’s tactical approach to conversations. Russia deliberately thwarted the involvement of US special envoy Keith Kellogg, demonstrating its attempt to sway the political process.

This is in response to a well-known Russian dealing technique, which is to keep talks going while making unfeigned demands. In Saudi Arabia, these included forbidding international soldiers, limiting Ukraine’s military might, and keeping occupied Russian territories.

As some have suggested, Putin simply has intentions to restructure the battlefield on his terms and does not intend to stop the conflict. Russia is free to carry on its rude given Trump’s errors, knowing that US strain on Ukraine will diminish any resistance.

A tense ceasefire, as is currently being discussed, will enable Russia to recover and establish fresh attacks, and it could be ended at any time.

China will also be strongly watching. Beijing might feeling motivated to increase its military presence in Taiwan and the South China Sea if Trump wins.

Trump’s bumbling trust

Over half of Americans believe Trump to be too close to Russia, according to a new surveys. His eagerness to officially announce political concessions, such as preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, reveals a tactful negotiation approach that undermines the US’s standing internationally.

Trump’s strategy emphasizes personal deal-making over structured policy, which eventually leads to strategic errors, and it echoes his previous diplomatic failures, which some have called” cowboy diplomacy.” His excessive openness about concessions, which are far from bolstering US leverage, gives Putin room to determine the terms of the agreement.

Trump’s misinterpretation of Putin’s strategy has resulted in a polarized NATO, a weaker US place, and a more resilient Ukraine. Russia merely respects power, no appeasement, according to history, but Trump’s diplomacy appears to offer punitive concessions with little strategic benefit.

Trump’s plans will not put an end to the conflict, but instead will force it to drag on with Moscow and the US acting as its dictate, unless Europe and the US reverse course and reaffirm their leadership in defending Ukraine and dispelling Russia.

Chris Kostov is an associate professor of history and foreign ties at IE University and Schiller International University, Madrid, Spain.

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Learn the article’s introduction.

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Arctic LNG 2 deal could underwrite US-Russia detente – Asia Times

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According to a report from Bloomberg on March 18,” Russia is wooing Arctic gas customers with living after US restrictions.”

According to unnamed sources, Novatek, the organization behind the Arctic LNG 2 proposal, is reportedly courting American, German, and yet American buyers away of Trump’s potential curbing or lifting of sanctions on the power initiative as part of the&nbsp, nascent&nbsp, Russian–US&nbsp,” New&nbsp, Detente.”

Notably, a senior executive cited in the history described this as” a way to store a rising China.”

Whatever they might purchase from Arctic LNG 2 from those three prospective clients, who all have problematic ties to China, may lower the amount Beijing could receive.

If they collectively replace China’s lost investments after secret Chinese companies withdrawn from Arctic LNG 2 according to American sanctions, there is also a possibility that they hip China out of the megaproject completely. If Japan and South Korea, which share similar interests, find involved as well, this might be accomplished.

In turn, this may put China under a lot more pressure on the continent in the form of comparatively less expensive LNG from countries like Australia and Qatar, both of which are British allies and whose export could be more quickly cut off by the US Navy in the event of an Eastern problems.

Russia is neutral in the Sino-US aspect of the New Cold War, just as China is neutral in the Russian-American one, with both putting their national interests first as their leaders frame and comprehend them.

Russia’s interests lie in giving the West privileged access to this same megaproject as an incentive for the US to coerce Ukraine into concessions, so China didn’t want to risk risking America’s wrath by abusing one of the latter’s most significant sanctions, ergo why it pulled out of Arctic LNG 2.

Therefore, the dynamics surrounding this particular issue and issue don’t align with Russian and Chinese interests. They are expected to responsibly manage their disagreements as usual in the spirit of their partnership.

These strategies are in line with the changing interests of the US. An Arctic LNG2 deal might be a way to squeeze China because the US wanted China to informally abide by some sanctions, such as this one and others, as a way to pressurize Russia for the Ukraine war while also curtailing or lifting sanctions on Russia ( including in a potentially phased manner ).

The US may not have anticipated this, but rather it’s flexibly adapting to the changing circumstances brought on by Russia’s impressive resilience in the&nbsp, Ukrainian conflict.

Russia didn’t suffer as a result of the sanctions; instead, it didn’t collapse under the pressure of the sanctions, and its military-industrial complex didn’t shut down. Instead, Russia gradually gained ground and is now on the verge of a resolution that could either end the conflict decisively or escalate it.

Russia might not want to risk risk whatever the US might do to stop it in the event of a breakthrough, hence why they have started negotiations at this point. The US doesn’t want Russia to reach its&nbsp, maximum goals&nbsp, let alone by using military means.

The series of attainable compromises that the two parties are currently discussing could force Russia to accept a ceasefire in exchange for a portion of its pre-conflict complex interdependence with the US-led West in order to lay the groundwork for a comprehensive agreement later.

The energy aspect could play a key role in achieving agreement, as explained here and explained in early January, but there might be other mutually beneficial terms to whatever ceasefire they might reach.

As Russia’s most important energy megaprojects, Arctic LNG 2 and Nord Stream could therefore feature prominently in any series of pragmatic compromises with the US.

Together, they could create a network of direct stakeholders for maintaining and strengthening a ceasefire in Ukraine, bringing those two together, the EU and the Indo-Pacific nations of India, Japan, and South Korea.

This might even be the outcome of Putin and Trump’s interim agreement.

This article was originally published on Andrew Korybko’s Substack, and it is now available for resale with kind permission. Subscribe to the Andrew Korybko Newsletter here.

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