India blasts into the hypersonic missile club – Asia Times

India’s ground-breaking hypersonic missile test places it among the elite group of nations with the ability to master the next-generation of weapons, a revolutionary strike capability that will transform South Asia’s geopolitical environment.

The first long-range hypersonic missile, the country’s first, was successfully tested on the ground by India’s Defense Research and Development Organization ( DRDO ), according to Naval News this month.

The Indian Armed Forces ( IAF ) has three branches using the missile, which reportedly performed successful terminal maneuvers and had a high-speed impact.

The Long Range Land Attack Cruise Missile ( LRLACM)’s maiden flight test from a mobile articulated launcher this month follows this one.

The Indian Navy’s ( IN ) currently has the most powerful missile, the supersonic BrahMos missile, along with the subsonic LRLACM, according to a report from the Naval News.

As for the hypersonic missile’s specifications, the report states it likely features a delta-winged hypersonic glide vehicle ( HGV ), offering enhanced maneuverability compared to traditional ballistic trajectories.

The LRLACM, which was developed by the Aeronautical Development Establishment of the DRDO and is capable of being launched from both ground and maritime platforms, is anticipated to have a collection of more than 1, 000 kilometers.

It notes these innovations mark important advancements in India’s weapon capabilities, providing long-range regular hit options for the American government.

A K Sachdev mentions the rationale behind India’s fast weapons program in an article from the Indian Defense Review in July 2023 that HGVs and HCMs are praised for their extreme maneuverability, low radar visibility, and ability to evade contemporary air defenses.

Sachdev says these arms, flying at lower altitudes than nuclear missiles, reduce monitoring windows, with HCMs skimming only 200 feet above the ground, making intrusion by ground-based systems nearly impossible.

He notes their capability to deliver precision strikes against strategic targets —such as command centers, fortified bunkers, or moving naval assets —at continental ranges amplifies their utility.

He adds that fast weapons can perform both, carrying either regular or nuclear warheads, giving them more flexibility in conflict escalation scenarios and enhancing their proper appeal.

This unquestionable ability to reach defenses makes for reputable retaliation, which could deter adversaries and stop a nuclear escalation.

In a June 2022 Center for Land Warfare Studies ( CLAWS ) issue brief, Rajesh Gupta mentions that India’s main objectives are to improve security and deterrence in a nuclearized neighborhood.

Gupta highlights that these weapons, with their great speed, flexibility, and accuracy, can work as important tools in India’s broader plan of “dissuasive deterrent” against China and “punitive deterrence” against Pakistan.

He claims that India hopes to prevent future dangers from adversaries ‘ growing fast army and reduce its ability to incur significant costs in the event of an uprising.

Dissuasive punishment, also known as “deterrence by denial,” involves dissuasive punishment by demonstrating a strong desire to stop an attack from achieving desired benefits.

Punishing punishment, or “deterrence by punishment”, &nbsp, involves threatening severe punishments, like nuclear increase, to increase the cost of an attack. Instead of just providing strong defense, it emphasizes more severe penalties.

Gupta claims that HCMs and HGVs are crucial for enhancing regular and nuclear weapons and preventing high-value assets from being stolen from the enemy. He makes the case that having these weapons is necessary to safeguard strategic interests and mitigate vulnerabilities posed by sophisticated army systems.

He points out that India’s investment in fast defense systems and defense mechanisms is in line with its desire to become one of the few nations with hypersonic weapons, which would allow it to establish proper parity and effectively hinder adversaries.

Granath Vanaik mentions in a 2021 Air Power blog article how China’s development of hypersonic weapons poses a major challenge to India’s strategy of deterrence and its newly developed fast weapons development efforts.

Vanaik mentions that China’s use of the DF-ZF hypersonic glide aircraft and DF-17 medium-range ballistic missile highlights its focus on avoiding innovative missile defense systems, which has repercussions for local rivals like India.

He claims that these developments shorten India’s response times, putting up a threat to its nuclear command and control systems, and raising the risk of an escalation due to ambiguities regarding the types of warheads and the intended targets. He points out that China’s advancements could cause India to lower its nuclear arsenal or adopt more aggressive strategies, increasing the risk of an unintended escalation.

Vanaik mentions that India’s limited advancements in hypersonic technology and its incomplete nuclear triad, which could lead to a costly regional arms race, are compounded by the two countries ‘ asymmetric capabilities.

In a 2021 article in the Islamabad Policy Research Institute journal, Adil Sultan and Ifta Khursheed mention that Pakistan faces significant strategic challenges as a result of India’s advancements in hypersonic weapons.

Sultan and Khursheed say that hypersonic systems, characterized by their speed, maneuverability, and ability to evade missile defenses, could enhance India’s capacity for preemptive counterforce strikes. They point out these capabilities align with India’s Cold Start Doctrine, potentially targeting Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons and strategic missile systems.

Such developments, they say, might compel Pakistan to adapt its Full Spectrum Deterrence posture, possibly through heightened missile alert statuses, an expansion of mobile launch platforms, or the initiation of its hypersonic program.

As Vanaik, Sultan, and Khursheed caution, these responses risk exacerbating an arms race in South Asia, undermining crisis stability, and increasing the likelihood of miscalculation.

Sultan mentions that India’s purchase of hypersonic weapons is anticipated to worsen regional unrest in a National Security Journal article from December 2021. These weapons are particularly effective against mobile ground-based missile systems, such as Pakistan’s short-range ballistic missiles ( SRBMs), which are seen as critical to deterring India’s limited warfighting strategy of proactive operations.

Sultan claims that India might want to use hypersonic weapons to launch a preemptive strike on Pakistan’s SRBMs, potentially putting pressure on Pakistan’s ability to use nuclear weapons because it is likely to carry conventional warheads. He claims that this scenario could give India a chance to start a limited conventional military conflict.

Sultan states Pakistan might feel compelled to raise the level of its SRBMs’ security, increase their numbers, and increase their mobility in order to counteract the threat of a preemptive strike. According to Sultan, these actions, alongside other countermeasures, could further destabilize the strategic balance in the region.

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What game theory predicts Trump will and won’t do – Asia Times

Many people around the world are confused about what Donald Trump might do in his second term and whether some of the threats he made about foreign policy will be realized as a result of his success in the US presidential election.

The president-elect has threatened to make a number of significant policy changes after in office.

One of the most important issues with foreign policy is how the Trump administration may approach ending the conflict in Ukraine, in the opinion of some. Trump claimed that he could halt the conflict in a day. Different nations on Russia’s edges are concerned that any agreement that ends in a victory could lead to ideas for further military brutality, according to Vladimir Putin.

Also, if Trump abandons the US’s traditional support for the self-governing area of Taiwan, it may enable China into an invasion. The island’s status as a separatist state and its inclusion in China are seen by Beijing. But generally, US assistance of Taiwan has been a component in China holding up.

Mao Zedong’s failure after the civil war prevented Xi Jinping from establishing his reputation as the one who brought China together. In recent years, the Chinese leader has increased the pressure on Taiwan, and there are clear indications that he wants to advance.

However, neither Xi nor Putin is ensure that Trump did follow his own advice. How’s why.

A training from match idea, the scientific study of cooperation and competition, may be appropriate here – in particular, the scenario referred to as the” chicken game” or the “hawk-dove” game, which provides a model of conflict between two actors.

Because it follows the same reasoning as 1950s and 1960s contests between American teenagers, it is known as the” chicken activity.” They may drive their vehicles at high speeds, and the first to veer off to avoid a collision that might turn dangerous would be called” meat” and lose the game.

We can use a payoff matrix ( see below ) to explain the logic of this game. The speculative payoffs that could be produced by person A and player B are shown in this table. In each pair of result, person B’s return from their combined behavior is given first, followed by person A’s.

Paul Whiteley, &nbsp, Author provided ( no reuse )

A fall is the worst possible result for both people, so this pays a total of 0 for both. When player B swerves, player A should continue driving, with the payoffs visible in the top-right cell ( 1, 3 ). In the middle left body, player B experiences the same outcome. If both turn, the reward is 2 for each person.

Swerving is preferable to colliding, but the winner is the one who drives right at his or her backwards.

Nuclear punishment can be modelled using the hen game. In this situation, striking the player first before they can drive when they swerve is equivalent to striking them first. Needless to say, when both people launch attacks together, the result is a lot worse than the zero depicted in the structure.

The trick to winning the game is to persuade your rival to keep driving at all costs. For instance, some American teenagers would pretend to throw the steering wheel out of the car to warn their rival that they could not swerve in the middle of the road if they wanted to. This basically means that you must persuade your opponent to take that risk in order to win.

This is similar to what Trump does in some circumstances. He makes significant statements about what he will do, which might include what his rivals will do after they concede defeat.

Trump also has the advantage of unpredictability. The gap between what he says and does is significant, as Michael Wolff, the biographer of his first term in office, has detailed. Wolff said in an interview:” Donald Trump is deeply unpredictable, irrational, at times bordering on incoherent, self-obsessed in a disconcerting way, and displays all those kinds of traits that anyone would reasonably say: ‘ What’s going on here, is something wrong?'”

A couple of examples from Trump’s first term make the point that the president-elect often chooses moves that, historically, other US leaders have ruled out. Sometimes these moves are successful, in other cases, they are n’t.

In 2019, Trump made a historic visit to North Korea, the first US leader to do so. Trump made the suggestion that he was the only one who could bring about a new era of friendship between the countries at this meeting. However, he made a failed attempt to form a deal with North Korea and stop the country’s nuclear program. In this case, Trump’s unpredictability did not work.

However, his unpredictability provided another example of how the US had been longing for a solution. Trump aimed to “insult and alienate US allies” in his first term, attempting to stifle the NATO alliance.

And his threats to reduce US support helped him achieve his goal of persuading NATO member nations to increase their defense spending. He had hoped exactly that.

So, Trump’s unpredictability could be a deterrent to opponents such as Putin and Xi, as they do n’t know how he is likely to react, or when he might take offence. The US president has the potential to take this personally and even have an opinion against Putin if Trump rejects a peace agreement offered by Trump to Ukraine or accepts it after starting the war in his place.

Unpredictability and carelessness can pay off in conflict and negotiation situations, according to game theory. No one is yet to decide what Trump will do next, as a result.

Paul Whiteley is professor, Department of Government, University of Essex

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Will Trump renew ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran? – Asia Times

The US-Iran marriage may change drastically as Donald Trump enters office.

During his first term in office, Trump’s innovative international policy caused a period of increased hostility toward Iran. However, the local relationships have evolved over the past four years, and Trump’s method to Iran may change as a result.

Conflicts are running deep between the two adversaries. The US Department of Justice made federal charges public last Friday regarding what it claimed was an Egyptian plot to assassinate Trump. Abbas Araghchi, the Persian foreign minister, called the allegations “fabricated.”

Iranian officials also stated in a secret meeting with the US government last month that they would n’t attempt to kill Trump in a report for the Wall Street Journal.

May these tensions continue after Trump’s subsequent term? Or perhaps Iran and the US have a chance to rekindle their connections?

How did the’ maximum force ‘ plan work?

During his first name, Trump enacted a so-called “maximum force” scheme aimed at curbing Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East.

After the Obama administration’s negotiation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA ), sanctions were lifted, Iran became significantly stronger.

Trump resigned from this partnership in 2018. Iran’s oil exports were again subject to severe punishment from the US, and there was an restriction. This severely impacted Iran’s market, which also caused social unrest there.

A US drone strike in January 2020 sparked tensions between the US and Iran, culminating in Qassem Soleimani’s death. Iran launched reprisals against a US military center in Iraq as a result.

In response to these mounting pressure, Iran scaled back its commitment to the Agreement. It prohibited the inspection of the country’s nuclear system and increased the amount of uranium enriched to the point of nuclear weapons.

Regional relationships have changed

Iran’s relations with Muslim states in the region have significantly changed over the past four decades.

Most considerably, Iran and its main rival, Saudi Arabia, resumed political relationships in March 2023, marking a traditional close to a long period of antagonism.

The two countries ‘ ties immediately increased to an inconceivable level of cooperation a few years ago. And as Israel’s warfare in Gaza and Lebanon have continued, Saudi Arabia has drifted apart from Israel and closer to its biggest rival, Iran.

The foreign officials of both countries met last month in Riyadh, followed by a conference this week between the Saudi Arabian army’s public chief of staff and his Iranian counterpart, despite some suspicion.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reaffirmed Israel’s right to respect Persian sovereignty and charged Israel with perpetrating” social genocide” in Gaza at a summit of local leaders in Riyadh this week. The mountain resolution also warned of the risk of Israel’s “expansion of anger” against Iran and other local places.

The most recent conflict between Iran and Israel has highlighted both countries ‘ dangerous features. A fatal, more extensive conflict between them, which might include the United States, Russia, and another players, would likely result in a conflict between them. Such a situation may include a significant impact on global security and economic conditions.

Trump’s approach towards Iran

Trump has constantly criticized US military action in his second term strategy. Additionally, he gave Iran a more amiable stance. Rejecting the idea of US-driven routine change in Tehran, he remarked:

I would like to see Iran be really successful. The only thing is, they ca n’t have a nuclear weapon.

He more expressed a wish for increased relations:” I’m not looking to be terrible to Iran, we’re going to remain polite, I hope”.

Elon Musk, the tech businessman closely allied with Trump, even met with Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations earlier this week in a charge to defuse conflicts in the next administration, The New York Times reported.

However, various studies indicate that Trump’s top experts are planning to reintroduce the “maximum force” campaign against Iran. By “going after foreign ships and investors who handle Persian oil,” it may mean reimposition of the sanctions and choking on Iran’s oil money.

It is too first to predict how Trump might approach his policy, given his unexpected nature.

Iran’s attitude toward a subsequent Trump word

By Iranian standards, Iran’s current government is reformist, whose rule would likely cover many of Trump’s subsequent term.

The administration of President Masoud Pezeshkian has vowed to restart nuclear talks and improve relationships with the West. And in contrast to previous revolutionary governments in Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds the highest position in the country, has a majority of its support.

Despite its martial power, Iran faces serious financial difficulties, with public frustration growing. So, Iran may seek to promote political solutions with the new Trump management, knowing any escalation could disturb the area.

In a mark of accessibility towards Trump, Iran’s vice president for strategic matters, Mohammad Javad Zarif, has urged him to review the plan of “maximum stress”, saying:” Trump may show that he is not following the wrong policies of the history”.

In the same vein, Araghchi, the foreign secretary, has sent good signs to Trump, saying:

The path ahead is also a decision. It begins with respect ]… ] Confidence-building is needed from both sides. It is not a one-way road.

He added that Iran is” NOT after nuclear weaponry.”

Iran has yet to listen to Israel’s latest direct invasion in late October. Iran may attempt to calm the situation despite having launched two primary problems on Israel this time. A peace in the Gaza and Lebanon problems is more important than reprisal against Israel, Iran’s government said in a statement released late in October.

Following a season of increased tensions, the place could experience a period of relative calm. The US would have a great chance to collaborate with Israel, Arab nations, and possibly Iran to create a more lasting local harmony arrangement.

Ali Mamouri is exploration brother of Middle East research, Deakin University

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Trump tariffs as ploy for making a big deal with China – Asia Times

As Donald Trump once suddenly assumes the role of industry, China’s leader Xi Jinping is casting himself as the manager of world trade, globalization and financial assistance.

At the height of the “new period of turbulence and change” that “is causing a significant challenge,” Xi said in Peru on Friday ( November 15 ), when national leaders were gathering for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation ( APEC ) forum summit.

Notably, Xi did n’t point the finger straight at Trump. China and the new US administration are working together to keep communication, foster cooperation, and resolve conflicts for the mutual benefit of the two countries in a diplomatic conversation a day later.

And that’s, simply, specifically what one might expect of the head of a large, unstable market staring down the barrel of 60 % taxes to take down the political temperature.

What if Trump upsets and turns out to be Xi’s open and accepting rival, with the 60 % tax hazard acting as a blip in order to elicit a significant fresh bilateral trade agreement?

Trump’s challenges to restart colossal trade wars are numerous, and there are many reasons to take them seriously. In the runup to his election win on November 5, Trump talked earlier and often about making “retribution” the driving power of his presidency, which begins on January 20, 2025. The business of Xi has every reason to worry that Trump’s revenge tour will make its debut there.

But, the other side of the argument is worth exploring. Chances are high that Trump’s taxes are only “part of a bigger American plan” and “part of a deal-making method that is going on in Trump’s thinking”, says Neil Thomas, an scientist at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis. The aim, Thomas argues, is a “grand deal” business bargain between the two biggest markets.

” So”, Thomas says,” they are there for their own sake, ostensibly to advance the’ America First ‘ plan, or they are going to be treated as leverage over China to extract some kind of broader, either monetary or proper, great deal”.

People have made this argument, of lessons, including some in Trump’s inward loop. But there are factors to wish Trump 2.0 may promote the government’s interpersonal impulses over conflict.

One is that it’s difficult to imagine a contemporary president who is more interested in what people think of them than Trump. He almost seems like the type of person who wants to be remembered for the trade war that America lost during his first word, from 2017 to 2021, and for impeachments, indictments, and other things.

After all, if the objective was to change China’s financial big-picture path, claw millions of jobs back from Asia’s biggest sector and revive US manufacturing, then Trump’s win-list to date is very small.

Trump is unquestionably the least-idéal US leader in recent memory. He also is reveling&nbsp, in having won a credible coalition of working-class white, black and Latino voters in the 2024 election, beyond anything serious pollsters saw coming. If Trump wants to be remembered as the “working man’s president”, he’ll have to put real meat on the bones of such a legacy.

Economists understand how and why Trump’s first-term tariffs did n’t stop China’s growing share of global commerce. They know that China did n’t “pay” Trump’s tariffs, American companies and households did.

Trump’s ability to convince the populace that his protectionist trade policies are ineffective will be limited.

Trump may make the case that he makes a different choice, giving posterity a reason to remember him as a dealmaker with Xi, China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, to make a case for it.

Two strong and proud hawks can prevail in a war and prevail in history. Take Charles&nbsp, de Gaulle, the French president who in less than two years, from 1959 to 1961, made peace with Algeria. Few people believed that during the previous six years of bloodshed. Or what of Richard Nixon, China and Indochina?

Economist Richard Wolff at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, observes that the “very real dangers, ecological as well as geopolitical, that the world now faces encourage finding some kind of negotiated agreement on a multipolar world“.

After World War I, Wolff explains,” such goals inspired the League of Nations. After World War II, they inspired the United Nations. The realism of those objectives was then challenged. That injustice cannot be endured once more. Without World War III, might we still be able to accomplish those objectives today.

There are other avenues for cooperation, Wolff says. Why not, he asks, make a comparable deal between the US and China, bringing in the Group of Seven, the BRICS–Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa– and the Global South? ” With genuine global participation”, he notes, “might such a deal finally end empires”?

Trump is not well known as a man of history or a fan of the Bretton Woods institutions, which still constitute the world’s foundation. However, some of his advisors, who are former members of geopolitical alliances, are urging Trump to bring about economic harmony.

Trump voters would be far more rewarded by a trade deal that results in significant increases in Chinese investment in US manufacturing jobs than outdated tariffs that were removed from the 1970s and 1980s.

” As it turns out, there are reasons for both China and the US to want a grand bargain”, says Louis-Vincent Gave, an analyst at Gavekal Research. ” For Chinese policymakers, their greatest challenge is not a lack of competitiveness, nor an unproductive workforce, nor a lack of natural resources. A general lack of confidence among businesspeople and the wealthy is China’s single biggest issue right now. Domestic animal spirits would undoubtedly increase if the US-China relationship improved.

Trump’s trade war, like Biden’s various high-end semiconductor restrictions, would aim to stymie Xi’s strategy to transform China into the leading technology powerhouse – and promises to further strain relations between the” Group of Two” economies.

China’s prolonged property slump, rising local government debt, weak consumption, aging population and high youth unemployment makes the specter of crossing swords with Washington again decidedly unappealing.

Could this increase Xi’s willingness to trade? At this point, there is no clear pattern in terms of how everything is organized. Many think Trump will, in fact, go full tariffs at first, only to change course later on when the results are n’t what he and his likely trade czar, Robert Lighthizer, had hoped and envisioned. &nbsp,

For starters, China is less dependent on US markets now than it was when Trump was in office, and thus less likely to be pushed around by Trump 2.0.

” Here’s what’s different this time around: the global economic landscape has shifted dramatically in the past eight years”, says Josh Lipsky, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.

” Germany’s GDP growth was 2.7 % in 2017. Today the country is teetering on the brink of a recession and mired in&nbsp, political dysfunction. China was growing at 7 % in 2017. But its GDP growth will be somewhere south of 5 % this year”, Lipsky said.

One might assume that all of this gives Trump “more leverage over both allies and adversaries in negotiations,” Lipsky continues. ” But it’s not quite so straightforward”.

For one thing, both US allies and adversaries have had access to his methods and observations of how he operates. Some people believe that because of this, his trade war threats wo n’t materialize into trade war action. The globe has seen, too, which levers they can pull in return to avert the worst outcomes.

Another reason Trump’s tariff talk may be more bluster than reality: inflation.

According to Lipsky,” the main question for policymakers was how the United States could consistently achieve 2 % inflation after years of below-target readings coming out of the global financial crisis.” Today, higher-than-wanted inflation is front and center in US and global politics, in fact, it was one of the reasons&nbsp, Trump was elected”.

The chances that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates, as Wall Street fully anticipates, will drop dramatically if Trump’s trade levies increase inflation. Jerome Powell, the head of the US Federal Reserve, and Donald Trump might encounter a second collision.

In 2019, for example, pressure from Trump—including threats to fire Powell in 2018—pressured the Fed to cut rates at a time when the US economy was already firing on all cylinders.

” As much as Trump believes in tariffs”, Lipsky adds, “he also is highly sensitive to market signals. Look back to 2018 and see how the markets responded negatively to his criticism of Powell at the time, which forced him to back away.

Trump has every reason to give the grand bargain trade route priority if this dance ever breaks out.

There are many causes for doubt about whether this will work, including how Trump intends to enlist China hawks in his next cabinet.

They include Marco&nbsp, Rubio as US secretary of state, Lighthizer, Trump’s former and likely future trade representative, Mike Waltz as national security adviser, Elise Stefanik as United Nations ambassador and Fox News host Pete Hegseth as secretary of defense.

A common denominator, aside from being tough on China, is providing strong support for Taiwan. According to Georgetown University professor Evan Medeiros, Trump might support Beijing’s efforts to reach a deal with the pro-Taiwan independence wing. But the issue could also scuttle any hope of a Washington-Beijing detente.

There’s a Door No 3, too, says Daniel Sneider, lecturer at Stanford University. As some analysts suggest, he points out,” Trump instead may opt for a grand bargain with Xi Jinping, one that could even include abandoning Taiwan”.

Trump, after all, has made several statements about the island economy wrecking America’s semiconductor industry, raising doubts Washington would come to Taipei’s defense in the case of a Chinese attack.

At least one thing is clear, says Ali Wyne, US-China expert at the International Crisis Group. Advisors who ( 1 ) view strategic competition with China as a global conflict, ( 2 ) urge the US to narrowly target deterring China in Asia, and ( 3 ) aim to stop bilateral economic disentanglement will likely engage in lobbying.

The most focused White House would struggle to balance these divergent objectives. And focus and discipline are n’t exactly Trump’s proven strengths.

However, Trump and Xi may choose to go that route for various reasons. Top Trump advisor Elon Musk, after all, has a giant Tesla” Gigafactory” in Shanghai that would benefit from a tamping down of trade tensions.

What might Trump and Xi ask for from the other, according to Gave’s list.

Trump’s wishlist includes a stronger yuan and a weaker US dollar, a push from Beijing to allow China to establish factories in the US, a purchase of Boeing aircraft, John Deere tractors, soybeans, and wheat to help reduce the nation’s record-setting US trade deficit, and a promise from China to keep North Korea in check.

According to Gave, Xi’s wish list includes assurances that any agreement will be successful, that the US will not collapse in the wake of China’s new tariffs, fewer semiconductor restrictions, the US Navy to stop parking aircraft carriers close to China’s territorial waters, and Washington to stop rattling the cage on Taiwan.

Is there enough to make a workable deal out there? Gave asks. Trump sees himself as a master negotiator who is master of” the art of the deal.” The market’s clear message is that any such bargain is priced at close to zero.

Yet when it comes to markets, Gave concludes,” One often&nbsp, makes the most money after a situation goes from being downright terrible to merely mediocre”.

Hence, Gave adds, if markets sense” that the US-China relationship is moving from the territory of ‘ new Cold War‘ to ‘ possible grand bargain,’ the rerating of assets— starting with Asian currencies and Chinese equities but moving on to emerging market debt in general, commodities, and cyclicals everywhere — could be epic”.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Presidential aspirant Yoo Seong-min on South Korea’s conservatism – Asia Times

President Yoon Suk Yeol’s approval rating has been declining since the People’s Party’s battle in the April public elections, fueled by his wife’s mounting crises and a weak market. The president’s approval rate was at its lowest point of 17 % in a recent Gallup poll. The Daegu-Gyeongbuk place, where Yoon’s most devoted supporters are located, is also experiencing decline in support.

Yoon and his party also struggle with physical challenges. The military actions of North Korea are getting worse every day.

The Asian Peninsula has experienced a significant rise in conflicts as a result of Pyongyang’s most recent army deployment to Ukraine. According to reports, US President Joe Biden referenced that shift in his week-end decision to allow Ukraine to launch ATACMS long-range missiles at Belarusian territory as part of Kyiv’s plan to conquer a region that is currently being fought over by North Korean troops.

Donald Trump’s returning to the White House adds another layer of richness. A minute Trump presidency, according to experts, could fundamentally alter the US position on East Asia, probably stifling several of Yoon’s signature initiatives.

In an exam, Yoo Seong-min, a four-term ex-lawmaker and analyst, shared his understanding on these issues. Since entering politics in 2000, Yoo has led two liberal parties, has run for president ( in 2017, winning the Bareun Party’s key to become its member ) and has held several key positions. He previously worked as a scientist at the Korea Development Institute for more than ten years before earning a degree in finance from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Yoo Seong-min. Photo: Kenji Yoshida

Q: On November 7, President Yoon held a media conference to listen to several controversies. What are your ideas?

A: It was profoundly unsatisfactory. At the meeting, President Yoon did not offer a sincere apologies or specific plans for improvement. He specifically failed to show a determination to completely preventing unelected officials from interfering with state affairs, as the first woman did. Nor did he propose any effective treatments. The government’s decision to omit the first lady from the future G20 and APEC conferences and impose her own restrictions on public appearances is only a temporary gesture. A permanent solution to stop her behind-the-scenes control, which might lead to severe issues later, is what the public demands.

When perceived as being free from the same normal, Koreans place a particular high worth on equality and experience a solid resentment toward the actions of those in charge—and their families. Unfortunately, both the Yoon and the Park Geun-hye administrations ( 2013-2017 ) have faced criticism for failing to uphold this ideal.

President Yoon’s acceptance is sinking below 20 % in traditional heartlands. What factors, in your opinion, are causing this drop?

Traditional voters in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Busan-Gyeongnam provinces, the standard bulwark of the right, are what keep the Yoon state afloat. I’ve been elected in Daegu four days, which gives me more insight than most officials. They first hoped that Yoon may correct the errors made by his father and put strict laws into place. But nothing seems to be working right now – be it the four major reforms ( pension, labor, education, and medical reform ) or economic policies.

That said, I’ve always urged that conservatives should n’t rely solely on those regions. I was the first to call out the need for liberals to appeal to older citizens, particularly those in the big cities. We can only put our desired plans into action by gaining these populations ‘ support.

As an analyst, how do you assess President Yoon’s financial plans?

I initially coined the term “innovative progress” in 2016. Enhancing secret company profitability is a key goal of innovative growth. I pledged to educate one million people in highly-demand fields like AI and modern technology at the time, but Yoon’s management seems to have largely adhered to my plan. The issue, however, is that this plan is not being implemented successfully. The management relies too heavily on the company ecosystem and its existing businesses and industries, despite its need for change.

Nevertheless, the Yoon management decided to increase health school membership by 2, 000 seats. The skills share in science and technology will become even more dwindling as a result. In Korea, the brightest high school students will unavoidably converge on health colleges, leading to a shortage of qualified graduates moving into the private sector.

President Yoon generally touts the phrase “private sector-led economic development”. However, people with a rudimentary understanding of economy knows this is simply a given in a market-driven business. A single-use sector economy cannot maintain economic growth. For instance, NASA and DARPA have played a key role in the development of sophisticated technologies that led to the third industrial revolution in the United States. These technologies are funded through government-led R&D. China follows a similar type.

In her 2013 text, The Entrepreneurial State, Dr. Mariana Mazzucato puts a lot of emphasis on this. Our government should lead the charge in pursuing investments in sectors where private firms are reluctant to take risks and report on the results to those organizations to encourage their expansion.

How about legislation on North Korea?

The focus of President Yoon’s plan toward North Korea is on using fire to combat flames. But, I think we need to include equality while maintaining our main principles. Strengthening South Korea’s security features and deterring Pyongyang’s interests are really important. At the same time, but, ensuring peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula requires continued speech and commitment, not only fight.

Additionally, the Yoon administration’s political efforts with Moscow and Beijing failed. Russia’s war attempts in Ukraine have just received aid from North Korea. It is crucial to maintain contact with Russian peers at this time, even though South Korea must continue to aid Ukraine. It is necessary to discuss nuclear weapon development with North Korea’s President Vladimir Putin in order to stop further military advancements. This, of course, does n’t require American consent.

Did President Yoon have the ability to build lasting relationships to Donald Trump as president?

Trump 2.0 will be different from both the second Trump administration and the Biden administration second. Mr. Trump views issues like protection cost-sharing generally through a financial lens because he is primarily a interpersonal person. So, President Yoon’s “value-driven politics” is unlikely to relate with him or deliver the same results as it might with additional leaders.

The” skill of the deal” is what our leader and Seoul leaders need to learn. Today, I’m not suggesting they deceive Washington. However, negotiations on problems like US military spending in South Korea and cost-sharing of protection should be taken into account. Japan and Germany face comparable circumstances, but each event has a special environment. The South Korean government may make conditions that both align with its own goals and appeal to Mr. Trump by analyzing different states ‘ approaches.

Do you see yourself returning to elections?

Of program. In the fall of 2026, I’ll work hard to be in the People’s Party political primary, with the goal of running for president again.

For JAPAN Forward, Kenji Yoshida is an interact journalist in Seoul and a speaker.

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Bringing Buddhism back as a component of India’s strategic culture – Asia Times

Can Eastern foreign relations be reshaped by postcolonial values? India is already practicing Buddhism in response to that issue. Some context: While India has a majority Hindu population, its national emblem and the choice of its flag ( specifically the white band ) were adopted from Buddhist symbols at the time of independence.

Over the last few years, the International Buddhist Confederation, composed of a network of researchers, has been at the vanguard of India’s referral to the Buddhist earth. India’s growing relations to the world’s Buddhist area are being strengthened by the IBC. &nbsp, The force of the work, which is sponsored by India’s Ministry of Culture, is to investigate alternative types of wedding based on Buddhist rules and postcolonial links. India and its Asian supporters are collaborating to create a new model that will guide international cooperation on growth issues, starting with Buddhist values.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi remarked at the 74th session of the UN General Assembly that it had chosen the Buddha over Yuddha ( the word for war or conflict ), citing Buddhism as a pillar of India’s global identity and a path to peace. In subsequent global speeches, he has reaffirmed this point, citing Buddhism as central to New Delhi’s political strategy and reply to global tensions.

All political parties across the intellectual spectrum acknowledge that Buddhism is a central component of Indian and Asian social discourse, despite Prime Minister Modi’s and Bharatiya Janata Party’s well-known ties to Hindu nationalism. &nbsp,

India’s democratic administration has repeatedly revived this aspect of its commitments with Asia, and the degree of Buddhist civilization’s expansion across Asia is well known. Simply put, there is a discussion among Asian nations about adopting some standards for global conduct given the current world situation. A significant portion of the Modi government’s funds has been allocated to making these issues work for a long time. &nbsp,

Importantly, Buddha’s doctrines of reasoning, kindness and the interconnectedness/interdependency of all things and beings resonate strongly in India’s renewed drive for a new ethical conversation at the international stage. These rules are seen as a basis for local cooperation, consensus-building and fight protection.

Buddhism serves as a political tool for promoting interconnectedness and prosperity in India and as a spiritual tradition. This reflects New Delhi’s wider global aspirations, which are to achieve regional cooperation and happiness in Asia.

Buddhism has a major role played in Indian foreign policy for a long time. Indian nationalists ‘ critical analysis of India’s spot in Asia reflected the traditional extent of Buddhist effect there.

Buddhism was also viewed by Hindu philosophers and reformers as a potent countermeasure to social injustices and as a unified power in Asia during the colonial era. While it sparked intellectual debates among Hindu nationalists, there remains wide consensus on its value in shaping India’s part in Asia, promoting peace and cooperation.

In recent years, India’s international coverage has focused more on soft power in its relations with Asia. Despite having a history of hegemonic ties and practicing Buddhism before it was granted its independence, New Delhi’s development initiatives and diplomacy now speak for themselves more clearly.

Buddhism, which has shaped the cultural and social fabric of India and Asia for decades, is key to this plan. Important activities include the&nbsp, International Buddhist Circuit, remnant exhibitions, &nbsp, recovery of Buddhist churches across Asia&nbsp, and the&nbsp, return&nbsp, of some Buddhist objects to India. &nbsp, &nbsp,

It is already obvious how effective this approach is. In March this year, remnants of Lord Buddha and his two main followers were displayed in Thailand, where they&nbsp, attracted&nbsp, over four million followers. A similar museum in Mongolia in 2022&nbsp, received state-level accolades. More lately, in June 2024, Modi attended the opening of Nalanda University, the highest core of Buddhist learning in ancient days.

The biography of Guru Padmasambhava, the Indian spiritual who introduced Buddhism to Tibet and the Himalayan place, is gaining in popularity among researchers. His influence, earlier understated, is then gaining renewed interest. Padmasambhava ( known as the” second Buddha” ) is credited with establishing Tibet’s first monastery and shaping the region’s arts and architecture, including in Bhutan and Nepal. It is thought that he used his mountain runs as a means of propagating Buddhist traditions.

Furthermore, the ancient Pali language has become a focal point for the Indian government, due to the publication of key Buddhist texts, including the&nbsp, Tripitaka&nbsp, ( the earliest texts that make up the Buddhist Canon ), in Pali. Actually the language of the common people in Buddha’s period, Pali evolved into a complex language as it spread to Sri Lanka and Southeast Asia, &nbsp, influencing languages&nbsp, including Sinhalese, Burmese, Thai and Khmer.

In October 2024, Pali was &nbsp, declared a” classical language of India”. Modi marked the occasion by addressing a large gathering of Buddhist monks, many from Southeast Asia, reaffirming&nbsp, India’s commitment&nbsp, to preserving” the words of Lord Buddha with their original values”.

In recent years, New Delhi has hosted major international Buddhist summits ( with IBC as the nodal knowledge partner ), bringing together diplomats, scholars, monks and monastic heads from across Asia. These events, inaugurated by India’s top leadership, foreground Buddhism’s growing centrality in India’s foreign policy. &nbsp, &nbsp,

For instance, following&nbsp, the First Global Buddhist Summit&nbsp, hosted by India’s prime minister, India hosted the&nbsp, First Asian Buddhist Summit&nbsp, in 2024, with the president of India as the chief guest, reinforcing India’s” Act East” policy. This strategy emphasizes regional development through cultural ties, including the restoration of historic sites, student scholarships, and a redefining of economic cooperation grounded in civilized values. The Asian Buddhist Summit concluded with the announcement of the&nbsp, Delhi Declaration, which outlined a framework for cooperation among Asian nations guided by Buddhist&nbsp, principles. &nbsp,

Beyond cultural diplomacy, Buddhist teachings are being applied to contemporary challenges facing the environment, mental health issues and combating disinformation. The September 2024 International Buddhist Media Conclave in New Delhi, which brought together world-wide Buddhist media outlets and businesspeople to discuss technological advancements and novel methods of preventing disinformation, is a notable example.

Buddhism’s long influence in Asia has shaped the region’s art, architecture, ecology and spirituality, encompassing all aspects of life. These initiatives align India’s development objectives with those of the region by highlighting India’s soft power and reintroducing Buddhism into Asia’s strategic culture. This method aids in the conceptualization of a global order based on the Buddha’s teachings.

Prateek Joshi, a graduate student at Oxford who is currently working as a media executive for the Indian Buddhist Confederation, an independent ministry of culture organization that aims to foster a lively dialogue between Asian governments and Buddhist scholars, is a graduate student at the University of Oxford.

Genevieve Donnellon-May is a researcher at Oxford Global Society and a fellow at the Indo-Pacific Studies Center. She was named a young leader for the 2023 Pacific Forum and serves on Modern Diplomacy’s advisory board.

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Biden permission to fire ATACMS at Russian territory hastens WWIII – Asia Times

A decrepit US President, Joe Biden, is reported to have authorized Russian long range weapon hits on Russian place. Olaf Scholz, the leader of Germany who has refused to send long-range Sagittarius weapons to Ukraine, has been dragged out of his grasp by his decision. &nbsp, Germany’s authorities had all but collapsed. Thanks to Biden, Scholz’s trust at house has now been damaged even further.

( It could be that Scholz knew Biden was going to accept ATACMS weapons, which is why he&nbsp, telephoned Putin away of Biden’s walk to relieve ATACMS. Since Putin speaks European, we are unsure of what the two leaders might have said to one another during an hour-long telephone call. &nbsp, But it can be supposed that Scholz wanted to get targets in Germany off Russia’s list after Biden’s announcement. )

This is a dark column, and Russia has made it clear that NATO is at war with Russia. &nbsp, The Russians say that ATACMS rockets, fired from HIMARS launching systems, are operated by NATO experts, not by Russians.

M142 HIMARS and ATACMS rockets. Photo funds: Mariusz Burcz

There is significance in the Soviet debate. The reality is that if Ukraine had used ATACMS to control HIMARS rockets, they would have already attempted to shoot them at Russian goals like the Kursk nuclear plant and &nbsp, which they had previously attempted to attack with drones. &nbsp, The good news is the Russians do not handle them.

Use of ATACMS missiles wo n’t change the course of the war, nor its outcome. &nbsp, It does, however, guide to some unpleasant surprises as the choice has implications bigger than Ukraine.

Russians have n’t attacked any NATO offer bases throughout the conflict. Although the use of specific long-range robots and strikes on Russian ships in the Black Sea, particularly those operating close to Russian territory, crossed the line, the United States and its NATO allies have certainly attacked Russian territory. &nbsp,

Russia has numerous options today as a result of Biden’s bad choice. It may strike US and NATO foundations outside of Ukraine, in Poland for instance. &nbsp, This may cause a public European-wide issue, but the Russians probably hold the upper hand and can destroy Europe, which has more to gain than the Russians.

Russia is also target its strikes on Ukraine, by destroying Kyiv for example. A complete weapon and bombing attack on the Polish capital area may result in the loss of many lives and the destruction of large tracts of land. Biden’s selection and Zelensky’s foolish passion supporting it ask precisely this kind of retaliation.

Even scarce are ATACMS weapons. &nbsp, They form an important element of US threats abroad, especially in the Asia Pacific region. &nbsp, Taiwan is getting ATACMS, but quite quietly, and the US Marines on Okinawa need them to arrest a Chinese conquest of Taiwan. &nbsp, The Marines have already&nbsp, set up a radar station&nbsp, on the small island of Yonaguni, and if tension rises indicating a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the Marines will move HIMARS to Yonaguni, which is only around 111 kilometers (69 miles ) from Taiwan.

The US&nbsp, quietly started shipping ATACMS rockets to Ukraine&nbsp, next spring. &nbsp, They were sent as part of a last-ditch effort to try and protect Ukraine from battle. &nbsp, With a range of about 190 yards, the weapons can cause considerable damage if they are not intercepted by Russian weather threats.

According to reports, ATACMS will be used to stop the Ukrainians ‘ conquest of Kursk, which is located in Russian territory. &nbsp, Ukraine has put a large number of its best preventing divisions in Kursk, trying to hold onto that place. &nbsp, It is viewed as a “bargaining device” in an expected future dialogue with Russia.

However, the Russians have recently been bombing their back assembly areas and forcing them to flee Kursk, which has resulted in a terribly high death toll. &nbsp, Russia says that Ukraine has already lost 32, 000 military ( dead or wounded ) in the Kursk war, and the numbers continue to increase.

Russia has also lost many troops, but we do n’t know the actual number. &nbsp, But, the battle is asymmetrical&nbsp, because Ukraine no long has the labor to sustain the Kursk activity and combat elsewhere&nbsp, along the long line of contact with the Soviet army.

A Rafael warrior aircraft has flap underwing.

Cruise missiles supplied by the UK and France are the other long-range munitions that Ukraine and NATO use in the conflict. Both the English and French translations are very similar. &nbsp, Britain’s weapon is named Storm Shadow. &nbsp, The European type is called Scalp.

The highly regarded French magazine Figaro claimed that the British and French had authorized the launch of these missiles against Russia, but a subsequent version of the story removed the claim that France and Britain had given for permission.

Both Storm Shadow and Scalp are already in Ukraine, but they must get pre-targeted and operated by NATO employees. Despite their language, it seems that both the French nor the British are interested in escalating their conflict with Russia. But, the&nbsp, UK Standard, quoting the UK Foreign Minister, gave a very qualified support to the use of Storm Shadow, appearing to indicate it was appropriate to use them in the Kursk region of Russia.

However, and for the record, the British have no more Storm Shadow weapons they can dispatch to Ukraine. The European stash is likely to have declined as well. &nbsp, Nevertheless the Germans have suddenly said&nbsp, there will be no Taurus missiles&nbsp, for Ukraine. &nbsp,

Depending on what Russia decides, how this turns out today.

The Asia Times has a top editor named Stephen Bryen. He also served as the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s team director and its deputy secretary of defense for policy. &nbsp, This&nbsp, post was first published on his&nbsp, Weapons and Strategy&nbsp, Substack, and is republished with authority.

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To Donald Trump, From Han Feizi – Asia Times

Come, you masters of war, you that build the big guns

You that build the death planes, you that build all the bombs

You that hide behind walls, you that hide behind desks

I just want you to know I can see through your masks

– Bob Dylan

The historical Han Feizi of the second century BCE was China’s greatest Legalist scholar, whose ideas the Qin Emperor used to consolidate the Chinese state for the first time. Westerners could do worse than think of Han Feizi as China’s Niccolo Machiavelli. The similarities are uncanny despite a separation of 1,700 years and 8,000 kilometers.

Han Feizi has been making a comeback, becoming perhaps the third most discussed of China’s ancient sages and philosophers – right behind Confucius and Sun Tzu. President Xi is surely responsible, invoking Han Feizi in speeches, “When those who uphold the law are strong, the state is strong. When they are weak, the state is weak.”

Xi’s unyielding anti-corruption campaign draws from legalist tradition, wielding power through the punishment lever. But enough ink has been spilled on Han Feizi and the Legalists’ influence on Xi’s China.

Yours truly is more interested in what Han Feizi makes of the second coming of Donald Trump, what advice he would give the president-elect and what pitfalls he sees arrayed before America’s populist and perhaps authoritarian sovereign.

For mysterious reasons, Asia Times has the ability to channel history’s spirit world, conjuring the ghosts of Oswald Spengler and Cardinal Richelieu. It is now time that yours truly, after cosplaying the Legalist scholar for a year, does the esoteric seance and formally calls forth the Ghost of Han Feizi.     

“Stay back, all of you. I’ve come for one person and one person only,” I yelled through the portal, Pingduoduo electric mosquito swatter in hand, “Not you Confucius, nor you, Xunzi – a gentleman scholar Donald J Trump is not. And Mozi… go away, you’re totally useless. Maybe you can go comfort Kamala.”

“Y-y-you called for me?” Han Feizi said, as his apparition appeared behind the other sages, “A-a-after all these y-y-years? A-a-a-re m-m-m-my s-s-services r-r-r-required?”

“It’s you,” I said, “It’s really you! Yes, come, come… I’ve prepared a writing desk with silk parchment, brushes and ink. Don’t talk. I know your stammer gets bad when you’re nervous. Just write. We will take a picture of the manuscript and run it through Baidu translate when you’re finished…

“Oh, taking a picture is when you… ummm… and Baidu translate is… uhhh… never mind… sit down… relax. Let me tell you what has happened in the past 2,200 years. Let me tell you about a new empire called the United States of America. And let me tell you about the rise to power of its latest emperor – the strange, strange tale of Donald J Trump…”

BAIDU TRANSLATION OF HAN FEIZI’S MANUSCRIPT   

This new empire – this United States of America – has been expanding for almost 250 years. It’s not so new at all. Forgive me for being impressed; if I recall correctly, the Qin Emperor dispatched me to the spirit world before I had a chance to witness the application of my life’s work.

Most impressive about this Empire of the United States of America is that it has lasted 250 years without an emperor like Donald J Trump. The lands of the United States of America are truly blessed. When the land is bountiful and the people are few, husbands do not have to till the fields for the seeds of grass and the fruit of trees were enough for people to eat.

And wives do not have to weave for the skins of animals and birds provided sufficient clothing. There is an abundance of goods and so no one quarreled. Therefore no rich rewards were doled out. No harsh punishments were administered and yet the people themselves were orderly.

In my time, the Sinic-lands were already teaming with people and kingdoms and warlords. No one regarded five sons as a large number and these five sons in turn had five sons each so that before the grandfather has died, he has 25 grandchildren.

Hence the number of people increased, goods grew scarce and men had to struggle and slave for immediate living. Therefore they fell to quarreling and though rewards were doubled and punishments were piled on, they could not be prevented from growing disorderly.

This Empire of the United States of America had been feasting on the bounty of expansion – westward across a continent, into the ocean and right up against the Qin Empire’s shores (which 2,200 years later is now called the People’s Republic of Qin… not too shabby of me, if I do say so myself).

Across its eastern ocean, the Empire of the United States of America controls the geriatric continent of its origins and the lands from which its sacred texts emerged. But this empire controls these regions shabbily.

Greed and weakness have entangled the empire in unnecessary military conflict, draining resources and enticing challengers. Tianxia – all under heaven – is not at peace (Tianxia is a giant round ball? I can’t wait to tell Sun Tzu… it will blow his mind).

Internally, the Empire of the United States of America is beset with disorder. This empire is governed in the most peculiar way, with levers of power surrendered to venal merchants. Impoverished barbarians are entering the empire through unguarded borders.

Prices of goods have surged. Crime and squalor have swallowed up large swathes of once-great cities. The people are angry and the distractions of sports ball, undressed girls, moving paintings, trinkets, games of chance and soothing medicines are not enough to prevent disorder and quarrelling.

On the surface, this Donald J Trump, this crass merchant, this boastful cretin, this blathering buffoon, appears to be wholly incapable of rising to power. And yet here he is.

A sage ruler waits empty and still and must not reveal his desires, for if he reveals his desires, his ministers will put on the mask that pleases him. He must not reveal his will for if he does so, his ministers will show a different face.

From a place of darkness, the sage ruler observes the defects of others; see but does not appear to see; listen but does not appear to listen; know, but does not let it be known that he knows.

Emperor Donald J Trump appears to violate all of these maxims. And yet, he has not. As much as this emperor talks, the quantity and volume of his words mask a loud silence. He has said everything and revealed nothing. No one knows what he is plotting, putting all his ministers, all his subjects and all rulers of foreign lands on edge.

The emperor’s enemies are convinced that he is capable of every sort of bestial horror. The emperor’s friends believe he is just short of divine, capable of making the fallen empire great again. The emperor’s foreign adversaries vacillate between dismissing his buffoonery and sweating over the chaos he might unleash. The emperor’s ministers supplicate themselves before him, hoping to be rewarded with high office and fearing the punishment of his immortal words, “You’re fired!”

Emperor Donald J Trump is still learning. After the throne was wrested away by a lesser man, he spent four years in the wilderness contemplating his missteps. He had made many mistakes, chief among them was appointing ministers with hidden agendas with designs on the levers of power.

Reclaiming the throne from the lesser man and his band of imbeciles was a trivial feat. Avoiding past mistakes will be the greater challenge. Tigers prowl the palace halls, coveting the throne.

That is my diagnosis of the maladies afflicting the Empire of the United States of America. My prescription will be addressed directly to the emperor himself.

Your majesty, Emperor Donald J. Trump:

You have done well reclaiming the throne. But now the hard work begins. You are now surrounded by courtiers and supplicants, each with capabilities, incompetencies and agendas. When appointing ministers, you should:

  1. Assign one man to each office and do not let men talk to each other and then all will do their utmost.
  2. Hide your tracks, conceal your sources so that your subordinates cannot trace the springs of your action.
  3. Discard wisdom, forebear ability so that your subordinates cannot guess what you are about.
  4. Stick to your objectives and examine their results to see how they match.
  5. Take hold of the handles of government carefully and grip them tightly. Destroy all hope and smash all intention of wresting them from you. Allow no men to covet them.

If you do not guard the door, if you do not make fast the gate, then tigers will lurk there. Ministers like Marco Rubio, Peter Hegseth, Mike Waltz and Matt Gaetz are easily tamed. Rewards and punishments will collar and chain these tiger cubs and they should eat from your hand.

More dangerous are the tigers who believe themselves emperor makers – Miriam Adelson, Tim Mellon, Linda McMahon and one very wealthy, very capable and very ambitious Elon Musk. Concern yourself not with geriatric cases like Adelson, Mellon and McMahon; their interests – money and clan – are pedestrian and transparent. But Elon Musk, this merchant, this self-promoter, this manufacturer of useless trivia, must be brought to heel post haste.   

Minister Elon Musk is a man of celestial talent and with that comes commensurate ambition. Given the misfortune of his birth, he has no claim on the throne. Unfortunately, for a man of his caliber, to not covet the levers of power is impossible. If you think you have tamed him by shunting him off to write reports in a made-up ministry, make sure that is exactly what you have done.

Sinecures and made-up ministries will not placate this man. He has already done an end run around the palace with the naming of this ministry – DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency) – putting his personal brand on your government department. Two roosters cannot occupy the same henhouse and you have invited this rooster in.

Given the vast resources at his disposal, Minister Elon Musk will attempt to apply the two levers of power on you, rewarding you and punishing you to do his bidding. That is what a sovereign must suffer when power has been surrendered to merchants. For guidance, look across the ocean to the People’s Republic of Qin. The sovereign showed unruly merchants their place and order now permeates his empire.    

If the two levers of power – reward and punishment – cannot subjugate merchants, these vermin will infiltrate the state and drain it of vitality. You must restrain these ministers with clear laws or risk rending asunder the state as ministries vie for power. If you cannot make the law clear and use it to restrain the authority of the high ministers, then you will have no means to win the confidence of the people at large.

If you discard the law and instead attempt to use some of your ministers to control others, then those who love each other will band together in groups for mutual praise, and those who hate each other will form cliques for mutual slander. With praise and slander striving to shout each other down, you will become bewildered and confused.

All under heaven do not know what your plans are for Ukraine, Israel, Iran, the People’s Republic of Qin, the surging price of goods, rising government debt, illegal barbarians, trade policy, industrial policy and your enemies deep within the bureaucracy.

It is vital that your ministers do not know either and merely implement what they have promised for the solutions to these problems are difficult and contradictory – some problems and some ministers must be sacrificed for others. It is your burden to ascertain the intentions and desires of ministers and place them in their positions ignorant of your ultimate designs.

Undertakings succeed through secrecy but fail through being found out. If you have not yet divulged your plans but in your discussions a minister deduces your intent, then he must be ruthlessly dispatched. If you are ostensibly seeking one thing but actually attempting to accomplish something quite different, you must destroy ministers who catch wind of your plans.

For now, I commend you for your wily ability to reveal nothing even while saying everything. Nobody can pin down what you believe, perhaps not even yourself. You promised to end the European war on day one of your coronation but have just appointed ministers who couldn’t be less willing to do so.

You have wage laborers in your corner and yet merchants and money lenders are rubbing their hands together. You threaten commercial war with the People’s Republic of Qin and yet you invite their magic chariot makers into your empire. These are all excellent moves. Keep your options open. Let no minister in your court or the court of your adversaries divine your intentions, for if they do, they will conspire to thwart you.

The portal to the spirit world is open for only so long and I will soon have to return. I cannot leave you without specifically addressing the Empire of People’s Republic of Qin. After a short blip in history, the descendant of Qin is returning to its role as the celestial center of civilization.

The Empire of the United States of America is thus careening towards confrontation with the People’s Republic of Qin (I can’t wait to tell Sun Tzu about everybody’s flashy weapons… it will blow his mind). Expansion in Tianxia is now treacherous as powerful empires and their vassals butt up against each other (Tianxia is one giant round ball? That will never stop being funny :D).

The disorder you see in the Empire of the United States of America is the result of thwarted expansion, squandering lives and treasure in far-off lands. The neglected home front fueled your rise to power and, with your permission, the necessity of Legalist government.

The Sinic lands reached carrying capacity in my lifetime and the subsequent Qin Empires have had 2,000 years of practice implementing Legalism. Their current emperor is well-schooled in the dark arts while you are learning on the fly and relying on instinct, excellent as they may be. What the emperor of the People’s Republic of Qin has but you lack is methodical discipline. He knows what he wants and how he will get there even if we do not. Do you know what you want?

With religious certainty, your tiger cub ministers are eager to confront the Empire of the People’s Republic Qin – which has been sharpening swords, making projectile arrows, building war junks and invisible flying machines. They have reorganized their craftsmen and traders to prepare for commercial war. Has the Empire of the United States of America adequately prepared for military or commercial conflict with the People’s Republic of Qin?

The portal is closing and I must bid you farewell. I wish you good fortune in you political endeavors and hope the Empire of the United States of America can adopt a Legalist government and last as long as the Empire of Qin.

Until we meet again…

Sincerely,

Han Feizi        

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Softbank, Nvidia to build world’s first AI grid in Japan – Asia Times

In a grand plan to turn its cell phone base stations into a nationwide AI grid in Japan, Softbank Group is using Nvidia’s Blackwell processors to create the first artificial intelligence ( AI ) supercomputer. &nbsp,

Blackwell, the most effective Artificial computing system yet devised, was announced by Nvidia next March. In an outdoor test in Kanagawa district, west of Tokyo, Softbank has now demonstrated continuous 5G device service for AI inference workloads.

Japan’s third-largest smart telecom carrier is then ready to create the world’s second combined Artificial and 5G telecoms network.

This new concept, known as Artificial Intelligence plus Radio Access Network, or AI-RAN, is enabled by Nvidia AI Aerial, which runs 5G radio on Compute Unified Device Architecture ( CUDA ), Nvidia’s parallel computing software for Graphics Processing Unit ( GPU) -accelerated applications.

Nvidia’s original design for computer games is an integrated circuit ( IC ) called GPUs. According to Nvidia, AI Aerial will enable mobile telecom firms to” Deploy 5G and 6G telecoms networks that can handle words, files, videos, AI, and generative AI loads on one common system”.

That is, your smart telecom service provider will henceforth be able to supplement voice, data and video traffic with low-latency, high-quality AI inferencing, drawing conclusions from information provided by phones, digital cameras, computers, robots and autonomous cars.

Rapid response is, of course, necessary for automatic driving. In cities like Tokyo, which has both a challenging road map and a high concentration of 5G base stations, Softbank’s AI grid may offer what Nvidia general Jensen Huang calls “air traffic control … for autonomous cars”.

At the Nvidia AI Summit Japan event in Tokyo on November 12 and 13, this and other exciting new initiatives were revealed.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang invited Masayoshi Son to speak at his keynote address, where they discussed the potential for collaboration between their businesses and the future of AI.

” The world has nothing like this”, said Huang about Softbank’s planned AI grid. ” Japan will be the world’s first”.

Son predicted that “every other telco will have to follow this new wave.” ” …this intelligence network … becomes one big neural brain … For the infrastructure of intelligence for Japan”.

To be sure, the scale of the project is unprecedented. ” Together”, said Huang,” we’re going to build Japan’s largest AI factory … When it’s built, it will have 25 AI exaflops. Just remember, the largest supercomputer in the world just recently was 1 exaflop… to produce the AI”. ( An exaflop is one quintillion floating-point operations per second. )

This, he continued,” will be distributed across Softbank’s 200, 000 sites]mobile telecom base stations ] here in Japan, serve 55 million customers … We’re also going to put on top of it a new type of store, an AI store so that the AIs that were created by Softbank and the AIs created by third parties could be provided to the 55 million customers”.

From mechatronics to AI robotics

In addition, Huang sees great potential in combining robotics and AI. ” The era of physical AI is here”, he told the audience. Japan is the only nation that I can think of that would be a better place to take the lead in the AI-robots revolution. And the reason for that is, as you know, this country loves robots … In fact, here in Japan, 50 % of the world’s manufacturing robots are built”.

” I hope that Japan will take advantage of the latest breakthroughs in artificial intelligence”, he continued,” and combine that with your expertise in mechatronics. Japan is the only nation with the highest mechatronics proficiency. You must take advantage of this extraordinary opportunity, the Nvidia CEO said.

While talking with Softbank’s Son, Huang noted,” …artificial intelligence is very different than software. You must have domain expertise and data in order to use artificial intelligence. And in robotics, Japan has world-leading domain expertise.

Leading Japanese industrial robotics firms Fanuc, Yaskawa, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, and Mitsubishi Electric are supplied by Nvidia. Additionally, it provides Rapyuta, a relatively new business that was founded by two Indian graduates from the Tokyo Institute of Technology and specializes in warehouse automation and multi-robot coordination.

Nvidia provides its high-tech wares to a wide range of Japanese industries spanning automotive, telecoms, internet service, medical equipment, pharmaceuticals, advertising and convenience stores, among many others.

Its customers are among Japan’s most prominent corporate players, including Honda, Sony, Hitachi, Denso, NTT, KDDI, Rakuten, Dentsu and Lawson. &nbsp,

It also works closely with Japan’s academia and government, including the Institute of Science Tokyo, the University of Tokyo, Japan’s national scientific research institute Riken, Nagoya University, the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology and the ministries of communications, education, and economy, trade and industry.

These lists show what Huang meant when he said,” …we’re here to partner with the Japan ecosystem”.

Nvidia, which was saved from bankruptcy in 1996 by an investment from computer game developer SEGA, has been in Japan for decades.

Its GPUs were used in the Sony PlayStation and Nintendo Switch in addition to SEGA Arcades. The first supercomputer to use CUDA was created by the Tokyo Institute of Technology.

For all, for one and all.

Looking ahead, Huang asked Son what he finds most exciting about Japan’s AI future.

Son replied that he is passionate about AI robotics, medical solutions and AI “agents” that can improve the Japanese lifestyle, both enterprise AI agents and personal AI agents. He thinks that “each of us ought to have its own personal agents.”

Then, Huang posed the question,” Could you picture an AI agent who has lived your entire life?” Son responded that each of us will have a personal agent from the age of one who grows up with us and is familiar with everything: a personal digital twin, a surrogate parent who can identify you when you are ill, a tutor who can recall everything it has ever taught you.

Huang and Son are not, to be sure, making any warnings about AI’s risks. They do, however, recognize the necessity for each nation to create its own AI based on the data it owns as a resource.

” It makes no sense to outsource that to somebody else”, said Huang. Every country, every company, will produce its own intelligence, its own AI.

How is it possible for a business to not develop artificial intelligence? asked Huang. That, said Son, would be like “giving your brain away to someone else”.

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The strangulation of Myanmar’s ravaged Rakhine state – Asia Times

After a year of brutal armed conflict, the insurgent Arakan Army ( AA ) appears to have almost complete control of the region from the border with Bangladesh to the Irrawaddy Delta, prompting a humanitarian catastrophe in the state of Rakhine, which is ravaged by the war-ravaged state.

The anti-military AA is now under siege in the main town of Ann, which is home to the Western Command of the Myanmar military, and is still fighting fiercely in Maungdaw to overrun Border Guard Police Camp 5, the last installation following months of bloody street fights and devastating device warfare.

The fighting has gotten longer as a result of the military junta from the coup-installed State Administration Council ( SAC ) military junta, which has been dropping reinforcements and supplies via helicopter and parachute into both locations.

In a few weeks of terrible battle, the AA seized more than ten settlements. The state funds, Sittwe, is essentially surrounded, forcing hundreds of citizens to flee north to Yangon by ship.

The port and airports are still functioning, but property routes are officially closed. In order to prevent an AA abuse from coming, SAC safety troops are fortifying the city. A long-standing online blackout exacerbates the situation inside the city, as new photos from Sittwe reveal deserted streets.

This may be an extraordinary victory for insurgents in Myanmar’s history of armed conflict, but it has been done so at a bad price, with the consequences already being felt for years.

The year-long offensive has increased the number of internally displaced persons ( IDPs ) to over half a million, including ethnic Rakhine, Rohingya Muslims and smaller groups such as the Mro, Daignet and Hindus, which are often ignored but are suffering just as profoundly.

The global humanitarian aid operation is failing to meet the immediate need for food, shelter, and medicine because of the extreme restrictions in the environment.

The conflict-induced movement comes after the disaster of Cyclone Mocha in May 2023, which pummeled system and housing, especially in Sittwe, and destroyed 85 % of existing IDP tents.

The limitations of the support efforts over the past year are revealed by a late-October United Nations evaluation. In Sittwe, just 10, 634 of 76, 090 Citizens received some help, or were “reached”, as the support business language goes.

Angry fighting and large fire during the war for Buthidaung from April to May left 85, 223 individuals displaced, with just 27, 839 reached, according to the UN analysis. An estimated 150, 000 residents displaced in Rathedaung, Ponnagyun and Pauktaw have received no aid.

In the north of Rakhine State, districts like Ann, Taungup, Thandwe and Gwa have not been usually defined conflict zones and, consequently, have had little access to emergency help.

Since the AA has seized control of almost all of these locations, the SAC has increased its use of marine airstrikes, artillery bombardment, and other airstrikes against human settlements, causing displacement and halting financial activity.

Rakhine state is in danger of widespread famine, according to the UN Development Program ( UNDP ), where two million people could be forced to eat. According to a recent report, only 20 % of domestic food generation needs will be met by March 2025.

” Internal rice production is plummeting due to a lack of seeds, fertilizers, severe weather conditions, a steep rise in the number of internally displaced people ( IDPs ) who can no longer engage in cultivation, and escalating conflict”, the UNDP report says.

A siege of the majority of the country’s roads and coastal routes has made this remarkable food security worse, with merely shipping to Sittwe, the state capital, and Kyaukphyu’s port. Myanmar state is losing control, and the SAC has been strangulating it.

The AA, its political wing, the United League of Arakan ( ULA ), and its public administration in particular have been burdened with more protection and aid as a result of the conflict.

The large efforts being made by Rakhine professor Kyaw Hsan Hlaing, including the Rohingya, to “establish legitimacy among various areas in Rakhine condition, including the Rohingya,” have just been highlighted.

The AA now has to “govern” while also fighting a state-control battle after steadily expanding its public service as it expanded its place and” control” over a larger proportion of the population.

The Center for Arakan Studies ( CAS ) has analyzed the AA’s burgeoning judicial system, which clearly illustrates the armed groups” seeing like a state” approach.

The incomprehensible agreement between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Rohingya Solidarity Army ( ARS A ) armed groups to cooperate with the Myanmar military and jointly wage war against the AA has made the conflict in Rakhine even worse.

It was ARSA’s strikes against Myanmar safety power troops in 2016 and 2017 that sparked the government’s large ethnic cleansing battle that forced some 700, 000 Rohingya across the frontier into Bangladesh.

The AA has repeatedly fought with Rohingya extremists and raided their alleged military installations in northeastern Maungdaw. In Maungdaw and Buthidaung, the teeming Rohingya migrant camps in Cox’s Bazar and among the native populations are recruiting soldiers from some militants.

The Myanmar government has even forced, or accepted freely, thousands of Rohingya men to take up hands. The AA is also accused of abusing the Rohingya through forced labour and other methods.

In Rakhine state, fight dynamics have changed significantly in the past year, which could lead to a multifaceted issue. This makes the Rohingya’s return to Bangladesh’s Myanmar position even more risky than it was a year ago, and it’s good impossible in the near future.

Unheeded calls for a charitable corridor between Bangladesh and AA and government areas. Bangladeshi security forces have restricted supplies from entering Rakhine state and blocked Rohingya immigrants from entering, a significantly different view from the new Muslim Yunus administration’s commitment to aid the Rohingya.

After ferocious fighting broke out in Maungdaw in the middle of 2024, this disengage was particularly obvious. There is also popular rumors that Bangladesh’s government is providing training and arms to the RSO.

However, items from India are even restricted. In January, the AA suddenly took control of a number of nearby Chin state’s Paletwa, capturing one of the area’s numerous Myanmar Army firebases.

This, which is effectively significant for the AA, opened up the possibility of increasing food and fuel supplies from India, along the Kaladan River, and by path.

But, barricades are being imposed according to inter-ethnic animosity. Food and fuel supplies from India’s Central Young Lai Association, an ethnic Chin business with a base in Mizoram, have been stopped from India’s Paletwa and finally Rakhine State.

The Young Lai Association has been preventing supply routes for many months and is angry about the AA’s annexation of Chin place.

The new trend of “anticipatory actions,” which looks at present dynamics to forecast for unforeseen catastrophe or emergencies, is a big hit with the charitable aid sector. By then, planning to stop the state of Rakhine express from famine must be more important. But among Myanmar’s estimated 18 million individuals who need humanitarian aid, most are not being reached.

The international community’s responses to this humanitarian emergency call for a reversal of their foreign policies toward racial Rakhine communities, who have long been subject to persecution. To bridge gaps between Rakhine areas, it also requires a basic rethink of the” interpersonal unity” programming favored by Western support and development sponsors.

Since 2012, Western donor financing has been wasted on a tens of millions of dollars with much evidence of the expenditure. It is obvious that international organizations must develop new strategies that transcend the traditional and unsuccessful intervention efforts.

It is obvious that the UN Country Team in Yangon is unable to increase humanitarian aid or foster harmony.

A secret meeting with SAC leaders was made by Julie Bishop, the UN Secretary General’s Special Envoy to Myanmar, and former Australian foreign secretary. It was evident that there was no miracle in aid distribution.

In her first speech at the UN in late October, Bishop bemoaned the “zero-sum” mentality of all sides in the conflict. Many in Myanmar were enraged by this because the SAC is the primary perpetrator of using aid as a means of conflict.

The current international mediation methods will likely only add to tensions and continue to fail. Engaging with the AA leadership and the organization’s humanitarian administration is the key to resolving the crisis.

To facilitate aid directly through the Arakan Authority, Bangladesh and India must engage in more proactive international advocacy. All communities in Rakhine state will be destroyed if the humanitarian catastrophe is not addressed. There will be no end to the state’s reputation.

David Scott Mathieson is an independent analyst working on conflict, humanitarian, and human rights issues on Myanmar.

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