NAFO taking names, barking back at Russian disinformation – Asia Times

NAFO, or the North Atlantic Fella Organization, just commemorated its second&nbsp, anniversary&nbsp, as a group dedicated to supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defend itself in the midst of Russia’s total- level war.

This&nbsp, decentralized&nbsp, group of individuals from around the globe, often unorganized, you naturally arrange with great interest to make a mockery of those spreading Russian propaganda when needed.

The organization has shown no signs of relenting in its campaign against pro-Russian advertising and stories on the internet. Elbridge Colby, a former member of the Trump administration, was its most recent destination.

According to the&nbsp, Department of Defense, Colby was the” Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, in which power he was accountable for security plan, pressure development, and geopolitical analysis for OSD Policy”.

He is also the nephew of William Colby, who served as the CIA under Gerald Ford and Richard Nixon. As a CIA lieutenant in Vietnam under Lyndon Johnson, he was &nbsp, responsible&nbsp, for the&nbsp, Phoenix Program.

Colby’s major debate centers around the idea that help may be reduced to&nbsp, Ukraine, in favor of shifting America’s emphasis to the Asia- Pacific. However, this did not serve as the main motivation for the NAFO snobs to use jokes and counterarguments against Colby.

As Ed Scarce&nbsp, wrote&nbsp, in&nbsp,” Crooks &amp, Liars”, Colby took issue with a&nbsp, video&nbsp, from next month of the mind of NATO’s defense commission, Bob Bauer, giving praise to the work of NAFO as a group in helping combat Russian disinformation. Colby ‘s&nbsp, reply&nbsp, to the video already has over 260, 000 impressions on X.

Colby then began making complaints about the “NAFO accounts” that were flooded with his posts and account timeline. Seeking a defensive alliance, he tried to engage Elon Musk and&nbsp, pro- Kremlin commentator David Sacks.

However, disinformation expert and&nbsp, founder&nbsp, of Vatnik Soup, &nbsp, Pekka Kallioniemi, pointed out that the treatment Colby was getting was” the exact treatment that people talking against the Kremlin have been receiving for the last 10 years”.

A former Trump official was sitting behind a screen and fiercely engaging with random people with profile pictures of cartoon dogs, which was quite the sight to watch on X.

The funny thing about Mr. Elbridge Colby is that he thinks of himself as a serious person who deserves to be respected, but he is engaged farming by arguing with cartoon dogs, according to a person on X using the hashtag osint_69&nbsp. His grandfather would surely be ashamed”.

Even former US House representative&nbsp, Adam Kinzinger, &nbsp, who is a fella himself, joined in on the&nbsp, mockery. Kinzinger, responding to Colby, &nbsp, commented&nbsp, “you do n’t get to feign seriousness now that you tried pretending NAFO was CIA, got schooled, and for months refused serious convos”.

Colby joins a long list of government officials who have been harmed by a random group of online cartoon dogs. First, in 2022, the notorious Mikhail Ulyanov got into a fight with NAFO schema.

He made the mistake of replying to a cartoon dog, with the words heard around Twitter:” You pronounced this nonsense, not me”. Ulyanov was humiliated, and he deleted his social media accounts for some time. As&nbsp, Vice News&nbsp, put it,” Shitposting Shiba Inu Accounts Chased a Russian Diplomat Offline”.

Russian state media watched as the momentum started to wane as Russian troll farms finally faced a worthy foe who was fighting back against Russian information warfare.

RT, the official Russian state media, made an attempt to discredit NAFO by&nbsp, labeling&nbsp, it as” a vast pro- Ukrainian’ bot army ‘ designed to influence Western policymakers”.

Russia uses&nbsp, troll factories&nbsp, to try and spread disinformation across the internet. For years, the West lacked an effective response. In a democratic society, governments ca n’t restrict the open flow of information, which makes it easier for authoritarian governments to influence Western societies. There is a reason China has never allowed&nbsp, TikTok&nbsp, to be available domestically but supports its functioning in the West.

It is difficult to doubt the viability of NAFO. There is n’t a better alternative to the Russian information offensive on the internet as a counterweight in a democratic society.

Before NAFO’s existence, a well-known official or pro-Kremlin commenter like David Sacks could spread deceit without ridicule, and the general public who read the comments and posts was more likely to accept it as fact. It was &nbsp, estimated&nbsp, that around 126 million Americans saw Russian- backed content on Facebook during the 2016 presidential campaign.

If someone is reading a post spreading Russian disinformation and they see the comments full of memes mocking the posted statements, NAFO’s intervention might give the reader pause and the motivation to research what is being discussed.

As&nbsp, Kallioniemi&nbsp, puts it: By ridiculing Russian propaganda, NAFO disarms it since the disinformation is so unbelievable and poorly executed.

The enemy has a chance of having an impact on the battlefield itself if it is n’t fighting Russian disinformation. While the US Congress was splintered and debating aid for Ukraine, Russian disinformation played an&nbsp, important role&nbsp, in helping delay aid.

US Senator Thom Tillis&nbsp stated in December 2023 that discussions over Ukraine aid were stalled because some lawmakers feared that “people will buy yachts with this money.” This disinformation was widely disseminated by Russian intelligence services, which had been shared on the internet and even received by US House Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Colby has now joined the elite group. Republican Senator&nbsp, Mike Lee&nbsp, also found himself in a feud with NAFO fellas in 2023. Lee appeared to have lost his mind with NAFO fellas crashing his&nbsp, Twitter polls&nbsp, surveying whether the US should send aid to Ukraine.

In his&nbsp, attacks &nbsp, against NAFO, he linked a pro- Kremlin website to try and support his point. In the end, his feud with the fellas caused him to have a very unhealthy obsession with NAFO for Lee, which led to him systematically blocking NAFO accounts from allowing users to view posts on his @BasedMikeLee account.

NAFO, as a random group of individuals, has shown how information warfare is becoming decentralized, with the average person playing an important role as a member of a larger group supporting similar objectives.

It’s the organic formation of a response from the democratic world to fight Russia’s troll farms on the internet with&nbsp, memes&nbsp, to help influence perceptions. The fellas fight back against the Russian trolls as well as those who are actively disseminating Russian disinformation.

As Senator Mike Lee has demonstrated, NAFO’s mocking of their peddling of Russian propaganda drives those officials to frustration when confronted by such a “menacing” force on the internet.

Ukraine requires a lot of help. Awareness of Ukraine’s plight connects back directly to support on the battlefield. A crucial part of Russia’s war plan is to undermine Ukraine’s foreign support.

Serhii Kuzan, chair of the&nbsp, Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center&nbsp, think tank and a former adviser to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, told me in a recent&nbsp, interview&nbsp, that Russia’s information war is focused on destabilizing Ukraine and also working to undermine support for Ukraine internationally.

No matter what the scale, the organization is vital in supporting Ukraine, despite the fact that some may look at NAFO and laugh at their work. President&nbsp, Volodymyr Zelensky&nbsp, himself stated:” Attention equals help. No assistance will be provided by little attention. We fight for every bit of attention”.

Every computer user who logs in each day and posts memes disparaging Russian propaganda and disinformation is acting much more important than they realize.

The cause of Ukraine and its fight for freedom is the cause of the NAFO fellas, who come from all political parties and from around the world. Colby, Lee, and the fan-favorite Ulyanov must be wondering why they ever thought to respond to a large number of unrelated cartoon dogs online.

Freelance journalist David Kirichenko covering Eastern Europe. Follow him on X at @DVKirichenko.

This op-ed first appeared on Kyiv Post, and it is republished with permission. Read the original here.

Continue Reading

China to defuse its  trillion LGFV debt time bomb? – Asia Times

China’s leadership getting scheduled for later this month could be the catalyst for policymakers ‘ development of a defused US$ 13 trillion time bomb that threatens Asia’s largest economy.

Although China’s home crisis is in the news, debt issues plaguing local governments across the country also call for immediate action.

The recent boom in local government financing vehicles ( LGFVs ) raises questions. For bill, the vast majority of it the off- balance- strip form, now nearly rivals China’s annual&nbsp, gross domestic product ( GDP ).

It’s obvious why international investors are concerned about China’s monetary foundations given the definition drama surrounding the large property developers and the glut of LGFVs, especially in a time of extreme global uncertainty.

With US&nbsp, bond yields staying increased, Japan skirting crisis and Europe walking in position, the second quarter of 2024 is n’t simply fertile ground for China to produce an export boom.

The good news, however, is Xi Jinping’s Communist Party seems ready to tackle the ticking LGFV time bomb. According to local press reports, a long-awaited economic strategy session scheduled for July 15 to August 18 will aim to find a resolution to the enormous debt load.

At the upcoming Third Plenum, Xi’s inner circle is anticipated to permit local governments to retain more of the fiscal funds that currently go to Beijing at the upcoming election. The necessary tax reforms in China’s system could be a significant step in the direction of eradicating one of the most pressing threats to financial stability.

It could also be a vital step toward investing more in high- value manufacturing sectors while stimulating&nbsp, now languid domestic consumption. The issue is that mainlanders save more than they spend because of the lack of social safety nets.

Increased revenues would reduce local governments ‘ dependence on property and land sales to stay afloat and give them more opportunity to invest in innovation and productivity-boosting industries. Additionally, they would lessen debt issuances ‘ appeal.

It’s difficult to overstate how significant a pivot could be. Fixing China’s financial cracks is only one part of the process. The other is building economic muscle that puts China on a path toward growing&nbsp, better, not just&nbsp, faster.

Since the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis, Beijing has relied heavily on China’s 34 province- level administrative areas to fuel economic growth. Regional leaders in Beijing frequently caught attention even before that by reporting higher GDP figures than the national average.

This accounts for the nation’s infrastructure arms race. Now, the bill for all those ginormous skyscrapers, &nbsp, six- lane&nbsp, highways, international airports and hotels, white- elephant stadiums, sprawling shopping districts and amusement parks is coming due.

Local governments raced to outbuild and outgrow each other to get Beijing’s attention. Photo: Asia Times Files / iStock

“LGFVs played an essential role in funding&nbsp, China’s colossal infrastructure buildout, which has also helped drive up land prices in what was previously a virtuous growth cycle”, notes Henry Storey, an economist at the Lowy Institute think tank. Land revenue provided an ostensibly inexhaustible source of largesse for subsidies in the heady days before China’s real estate collapse.

This growth model was not without its drawbacks, Storey notes”. After decades of bingeing, he says, “LGFV debt comprises&nbsp, well over half of China’s GDP – a totally unsustainable dynamic when median return on assets has hovered around 1 %. Local governments currently invest about 19 % of their total fiscal resources in interest payments.

Over the next few weeks, Xi has a chance for a major reboot. Since taking the reins in 2012 and 2013, Xi pledged to recalibrate an economic model that he said had become “unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable”.

But “despite momentous economic change since, many of the government’s stated ambitions remain the same”, says economist Diana Choyleva at Enodo Economics.

For this “vision of high- quality development” to ultimately be achieved, it will depend on “whether Xi can fully implement” reforms, Choyleva says,

Without the structural changes required to create genuine consumer demand, Choyleva goes on to say that a successful implementation of these supply-side reforms wo n’t be sufficient to put the economy on a sustainable growth path. However, the majority of those are glaringly absent from the discussion.

The weeks to come may provide this missing link and mark one of the biggest adjustments to China’s financial system since the Xi era, if not the last couple of decades. &nbsp, It would also be a major down payment on Xi’s pledges to revamp China’s$ 61 trillion financial sector.

According to Sherry Zhao, an analyst at Fitch Ratings,” We believe local and regional governments will still face challenges in supporting LGFVs due to falling land concession revenue.” Because they have more state-owned assets and financial resources for long-term debt resolution, economically stronger regions are more likely to have higher resilience.

A more active capital market would lessen boom-bust cycles, which would be less volatile. Additionally, reforms would give municipalities more room to put policies into practice so that they can spread the fruits of economic growth.

Analysts concur that significant disruption is required. ” China’s economy is not cratering, but it is definitely running at well below potential, and the government seems reluctant to do what it takes to get it up to full speed again”, says Arthur Kroeber, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics.

As ever, it will all come down to implementation. Over the past 13 plus years, Xi has occasionally shown to be more adept at recommending bold reforms than putting them into practice. That may be about to change, though, in foundational ways.

Last week, the party’s 24- member Politburo noted that a “resolution on comprehensively deepening reform and advancing Chinese modernization” will be circulated among the Beijing elite. By 2035, the nation should be transformed into a “high-level socialist market economy.”

According to Haibin Zhu, an economist at Morgan Chase &amp, Co., one reason for reform hope is that, unlike in the past when significant policy pivots were announced, the coming Third Plenum does not coincide with significant changes in top leaders.” This is not the case this time,” Zhu says.

Continuity, economists say, could improve the odds that reforms are implemented.

Xi Jinping, the leader of China, has a chance to fulfill his high-quality growth promise. Image: Asia Times Files / Getty

According to Robin Xing, an economist at Morgan Stanley,” The Plenum will likely support the economic framework that has taken shape in recent years: prioritizing chokepoints in supply chain self-sufficiency and tech innovation.”

Shuang Ding, an analyst at Standard Chartered, expects this month to be a key moment for Xi’s legacy as a reformer. We anticipate that the Plenum will reiterate the party’s support for the expansion of the private sector, a stronger state sector, and the crucial role that the market plays in resource allocation.

More importantly, Ding adds,” we think they’ll take steps to remove cross- region barriers, encourage innovation and green transition, and improve income distribution. Additionally, we anticipate that they will place greater value on security, addressing security risks in the financial and housing sectors, and strengthening supply chain resilience. Potential fiscal and tax reforms, which are crucial for long-term sustainability, will likely receive a lot of attention from the market.

Even though it might not significantly increase GDP in the short run, this latter push may be a game-changer for local governments. In fact, efforts to repair the local government’s finances would cause more economic turbulence in the near future.

According to Xing,” the focus on deleveraging the housing sector and LGFVs continues to put downward pressure on growth and deflation.”

LGFVs have found it much harder to issue bonds in recent months as regulators have made more effort to lessen risks in one of China’s most debated industries.

That “points to the continued regulatory tightening since the fourth quarter last year and we have n’t yet seen any signs of relaxation”, says Laura Li, an analyst at Standard &amp, Poor’s.

” This suggests that it’s increasingly difficult for low- quality, low- rated LGFVs, including those from affluent provinces such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, to issue bonds in future”, Li added.

However, allowing local governments to keep more tax revenue could have a significant impact on incentives. As economist Jonathon Sine, author of the Cogitations newsletter, explains, Beijing in decades past wanted revenues routed through its own coffers for purposes of control, most importantly over subordinate levels of government and redistribution.

Once you realize that the central government is essentially responsible for the majority of the money, Sine explains. ” Indeed, once transfers are accounted for the oft- cited central- local fiscal gap disappears. Unfunded mandates did occur following the budget reform in 1994, but in a more nuanced way.

Locally generated income is frequently transported from the provinces to Beijing and back again. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP

However, he claims that the “problem was – and still is – in the nature of the intergovernmental transfer system.” ” Beijing bureaucrats apportion funds to the provinces, who are in charge of apportioning funds to prefectural cities, who are in charge of apportioning funds among county-level units, and who are in charge of apportioning funds among townships,” the phrase goes.

Sometimes, Sine notes,” the provinces send funds directly to the counties, by- passing the cities. Each level also requires its own funds. And each level may take months before passing on the funds it has received. By the time funds get from top to bottom, a year or more can pass”.

China could reduce the effectiveness of the world’s second-largest economy, destabilize distorted incentive structures, and help Xi deliver on his high-quality growth promises by putting an end to this M C Escher-like financial system.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

Continue Reading

Hezbollah brandishing drones to deter an Israel war – Asia Times

Hezbollah, a Lebanese armed group, lately made videos that show images from one of its robots flying over Haifa and the surrounding area.

In an effort to persuade Palestinian political rulers to rescind their agreement with Israel, Hezbollah released the video soon after American special envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut.

Hezbollah released images of its drones, the Hudhud ( Hoopoe ), that highlight strategic military and civilian infrastructure inside Israel following Hochstein’s visit.

The following morning, the group’s director- standard, Hassan Nasrallah, gave a speech where he reiterated that Hezbollah has the ability to build targeted strikes somewhere in Israel.

The helicopter footage provides proof of Hezbollah’s growing technical skills. It appears to be intended to counteract Jewish threats to invade Lebanon and convey the message that Hezbollah has the ability to seriously harm Israel in the event of a full-fledged conflict.

Usage of robots

Hezbollah has been attacking Israeli military installations along the Lebanon-Israel frontier since October 2023 in response to Israel’s assault on Gaza.

The Israeli army has launched attacks and shelled a number of southern Lebanoni regions. Tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border have been forced to flee the place, killing hundreds of people, most of them Palestinian.

According to Jewish media reports, the army made the decision not to take down Hezbollah’s helicopter. Israel cited issue over casualties in the human world as justification for this choice. However, according to military analysts, failing to catch enemy drones during a conflict indicates insufficient detection abilities.

A foreign military aircraft flying over a country would generally be neutralized right away to reduce any security threat, possibly by targeting it over water or underpopulated places.

Technological developments are enabling Hezbollah, and the broader Axis of Resistance, to issue Israel’s air supremacy and its ability to maintain full control over the stars.

This includes the development of strong weapons and the ability to capture or kill Jewish robots, like those used in surveillance operations over Lebanon, such as the Hermes 450 and Skylark.

But, this also raises additional risks for Lebanon because Hezbollah might increase the number of weapons it releases.

Common punishment

Over the years, tit-for-tat attempts have been made to identify common punishment in clashes between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah has recently bombed Jewish military installations and shot down Israeli robots.

Since October 2023, Israel has conducted proactive and retaliatory attacks in Lebanon, targeting users of Hamas and Hezbollah, particularly in southwestern Lebanon. In June, Israel targeted Taleb Sami Abdallah, a crucial Hezbollah chief on the Lebanese- Jewish before.

Following this assault, Hezbollah intensified its unpleasant, launching missiles that caused fires in Israel. According to Eid al-Adha celebrations, the trip that followed remained largely peaceful.

YouTube video

]embedded information]

Following the release of drone images over parts of northern Israel, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s conversation included a section of the military team’s statement.

Israel has also taken security measures to hinder Hezbollah problems by preventing the use of GPS tracking and location-based apps like Google Maps, which Israel claims are used to combat drones, weapons, and different technologies used by Hezbollah and other armed parties. This demonstrates Israel’s will to keep developing defenses against risks that might arise.

But, while groups like Hezbollah have significantly adopted advanced systems, they also rely on more fundamental approaches to escape detection. Nasrallah previously spoke to Julian Assange, the founder of Wikileaks, about Hezbollah’s use of such techniques in an interview.

The Iron Dome

Since its most recent conflict with Israel in 2006, Hezbollah has significantly expanded its military and scientific arsenal, and it would probably pose a greater threat to Israel’s martial in a wider conflict.

Hezbollah asserted recently that it had destroyed an Iron Dome device, but the Israeli army claimed it had no idea what the launchers had been doing.

Iron Dome is meant to protect Israel from robots and short-range missiles launched by armed groups. It uses radar to track incoming priorities and interceptor missiles to kill them, and it has batteries spread throughout the nation.

Despite Israel’s praise of Iron Dome’s high intercept level, US officials have warned that the system may be completely resurrected by a full-fledged conflict with Hezbollah.

Psychological battle

Hezbollah is conscious that it is doubtful that Israel would exercise caution in its political and military objectives.

This is demonstrated by the Israeli military maneuvers like the Dahiya Doctrine, which calls for the extensive destruction of human system, and the assault of Gaza. Around 95, 000 people have already been forced to flee southern Lebanon as a result of Jewish strikes and war challenges.

Hezbollah demonstrates its eagerness to confront Israel head-on by provoking Israel. The question remains: does Hezbollah really possess this ability or is it bluffing?

Nasrallah made a point about the group’s potential and said it has not yet revealed the full scope of its features in his statement. His comments form piece of Hezbollah’s approach in the internal conflict with Israel, and the latest escalation represents a considerable development.

Hezbollah is trying to control the pace of the clashes, which is frustrating the residents of northern Israel by implying that it is imposing its conditions on the area and that it is controlling the situation.

This psychological conflict appears to be having a real impact, leading Israeli leaders to avoid overreacting and raising Israelis ‘ growing concern about the inability of their government to control the situation. Since October 2023, more than 96 000 Israelis have eluded the north.

According to the Israeli military, “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon” have been approved. However, despite Israel’s undeniable military superiority over Hezbollah, its actions so far indicate it acknowledges the dangers a wider war could bring. Israeli officials have warned that a full-blown war might seriously damage infrastructure like the electricity supply.

The Israeli army has n’t engaged in a significant conflict in a while, and it appears to be getting more and more bogged down in Gaza. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has spent much of the last decade fighting in Syria, providing its fighters with battle experience. Furthermore, if the war does escalate, Hezbollah allies in Iran, Iraq and Yemen could become even more involved.

Ultimately, Hezbollah knows Israel is much stronger. However, it is communicating that any conflagration would also be devastating for Israel through psychological warfare.

Everyone involved must exercise restraint, as required. The fighting and destruction must end in order to protect the well-being of the people in the area who are suffering from the devastation of this conflict.

Hamas cannot be destroyed, according to Israel’s military spokesman, who stated that it is impossible to do so by using weapons to annihilate an idea. The same applies to Hezbollah. A peace that upholds the security and dignity of all people can only be reached at the negotiating table.

Emilie El Khoury is Postdoctoral fellow at Queen’s University’s Centre for International Policy and Defence ( CIDP ), Queen’s University, Ontario

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Continue Reading

Putting Myanmar’s 1027 in realist perspective – Asia Times

Eight months after the rebel offensive dealt a surprise hammer blow to the coup-installed State Administration Council ( SAC ) military regime, operation 1027 has resumed in northern Myanmar.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance ( TMA ), a rebel coalition made up of the ethnic Kokang Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army ( MNDAA ), Arakan Army ( AA ), and Ta’ang National Liberation Army ( TNLA ), hit multiple targets in Shan state on October 27, 2023.

They were joined by insurgent allies from the Mandalay People’s Defense Force ( PDF), the Bama People’s Liberation Army ( BPLA ) and factions of the communist People’s Liberation Army ( PLA ).

The 3BA seized 18 cities and 36 military installations, including battalion-sized ones and Military Operations Command 16, in the course of more than four weeks of fierce battle. The insurgent operation killed some hundred Myanmar Army troops and compelled over 4, 000 soldiers, including some major generals, to retreat.

Additionally, most of the land north of Lashio to the Chinese border was taken, as well as essential Shan state borders cities. Most significantly, the MNDAA recaptured Laukkai area on the China borders, which the rebels had lost to the Myanmar Army in 2009.

By all records, Operation 1027 has reinvigorated and emboldened the pro- SAC weight. Comparable escalations were reported throughout the nation in the weeks following the shock offensive.

Those combined Karenni and anti-coup File forces captured the most attention during Operation 1111 in Kayah position. After in November, the AA announced that 1027 was being extended to Rakhine State. Similar to, if not more serious, AA’s following military victories in Rakhine overshadowed the operation’s initial phase in the north.

Militants have since taken control of Rakhine position and Paletwa Township in neighboring Chin condition, with some even capturing the country’s Thandwe airport due to the AA’s military operations.

Operation 0307 was launched in the north by the insurgent Kachin Independence Army (KIA ) in early March and has since accelerated steadily throughout Kachin and the state’s northern border.

After China brokered the” Haigeng Agreement” in January, fighting started to wane in northern Shan state. As an apparent peace, the deal was largely ineffective, with numerous SAC breaches in the form of airstrikes and ordnance bombardments. The TNLA resumed its side of Operation 1027 on June 25 as a result of these breaches of the agreement.

A dangerous rebel front has been formed by MNDAA, TNLA, and AA ethnic armed groups. Image: Social

Naungkhio on the Mandalay- Lashio roadway, way between the military base of Pyin U Lwin and the Goteik Viaduct, has recently been taken over by the TNLA. Additionally, there has been intense battle in the northeast of Kyaukme. In response to numerous aircraft and strikes on TNLA camps in the town, Naungkhio’s seizure was ordered.

Since October, SAC forces have been unable to move troops up the main highway, but they have managed to move items for many days around Lashio, where the government’s Northeastern Command is headquartered, as well as the Shan state city of Hispaw to the north. In Mogok and Mong Mit, the military is even strengthening its forces.

On the eight- month celebration of 1027, it is worthwhile considering eight essential lessons: four good and four warning for the anti- SAC opposition. The first is operating security’s significance. The first victory of 1027 owed mostly to its recipient surprise.

That the unpleasant itself, plus the movement of troops and equipment over a long period, caught the SAC off- protect illustrates the limitations of its field intelligence, both people and signals. It is obvious that keeping attack plans to “need to know” inner circles is effective.

The second concerns planning and logistics. Clearly, the offensive was meticulously organized and phased.

Nyo Twan Awng, the deputy commander of the AA, claimed that the alliance had been “preparing for almost five years to launch this large-scale operation” in the best analysis of 1027 so far, which was released by the Myanmar Peace Monitor in April. With the adequate preparations for this operation, we were able to plan it secretly. In Operation 1027, we were able to carry out attacks in a strategic, collective, surprised and synchronized manner”.

There is merit to this: the 3BA staged a “mini- 1027” in 2019 in the same area as the current fighting. That the alliance could assemble the correct force structure, arms and ammunition, and conduct tactical training on attacking specific targets, illustrates a level of strategic maturity.

The third lesson emphasizes the power of productive alliance-building. In just 15 years, the 3BA has grown from the runt of the ethnic armed organization ( EAO ) litter to the rebellion’s top dog which many PDFs are striving to emulate.

The three main members of the alliance have been successful in some ways, if not most of them are natural antagonists. The AA has no real claim to territory in Shan state, and the MNDAA and the TNLA seek to control contiguous territory ( even though tensions have grown between the two in recent months ).

The 3BA initially struggled to support post-coup resistance, but it has since benefited from the training and arming of the Mandalay PDF and other anti-coup proxies.

The fourth lesson, an intangible element of any war, concerns plain serendipity. As the old saying goes, “luck is where preparation meets opportunity”.

Operation 1027 was launched at a time when China was trying to stop the scam organizations that had spread along its border with Myanmar. It was evident that the 3BA had some support to launch the operation when it did.

Having said that, it is equally important for the alliance to learn from mistakes and difficulties that pre-exist or have developed as a result of the 1027. To the alliance’s detriment and risk of extinction, some of the cautionary lessons from the operation have been suppressed or downplayed.

The first concern is the devastating disparity in firepower between the military and its ruthless use of the armed advantage, including through its grotesque massacre of civilians.

The SAC has increasingly attacked cities that have been destroyed by the resistance since 1027 with airstrikes, heavy artillery, naval bombardment, and drone strikes. The SAC regime has deployed both” counterforce” and” countervalue” targeting to the extent that the distinction between combatant and civilian has fundamentally broken down.

The National Unity Government ( NUG) has made a complete failure to assume a more prominent leadership position in the anti-SAC war of national liberation. A Shan intellectual quipped soon after 1027 “you know the NUG was not involved for two reasons: one, it was a surprise and two, it was a success”.

The exiled NUG has been a bit player on the actual battlefield. Image: Dawei Watch / Twitter

Claiming an unwarranted leadership role in 1027 further dented the exiled government’s credibility. The unfortunate NUG actually only had Kawlin, a Sagaing town, to show for its limited role in 1027.

However, SAC forces recaptured the town several weeks later and essentially destroyed it. Nor have the gains of 1027 been matched by progress in the crucial Anya theater in the country’s central region, which is still chaotic, competitive and increasingly out of the NUG’s influence.

The administration’s enormous challenge has been reflected in the third incident after a military victory. EAOs with a long history of “governing” populations and territory, with established and capable” civilian” departments and usually robust civil society networks, are fully cognizant of the challenges of keeping towns functioning after seizure.

But for a group like the 3BA’s TNLA, the fast and major expansion of the territory it now operationally controls since 1027 has come with grave responsibilities of how to administer towns with little experience and limited resources for water, electricity, livelihoods, law and order, transport, education and health.

Even though some of the regions of the Karen and Kachin states are accustomed to insurgent-led administration, these experienced organizations are responding to urgent humanitarian needs as the territory under their control grows. By some estimates, Myanmar now has as many as three million displaced civilians.

The Karenni Interim Executive Council (KIEC ) has a legal system in place, but it also benefits from having a relatively small territory. Northern Shan state’s dynamics are much more enraging.

In addition, 1027 has revealed inter-group tensions between EAOs in northern Shan state, particularly between the Kachin and Ta’ang, long-standing territorial dispute, and issues involving local populations ‘ treatment by each armed group, including over the controversial issue of forced recruitment.

Unresolved conflicts between armed Shan groups and 3BA members could divert attention and resources from sustained combat against the SAC.

The United Wa State Army ( UWSA ), which hosts numerous 3BA leaders as well as EAO and NUG leaders, is perceived as expansionist, adding to the tensions. A more thorough understanding of the causes of internecine tensions must counteract the claim that 1027 demonstrated unprecedented “unity.”

Another overarching lesson from 1027 is the folly of prediction. Nearly all commentators made up their minds prematurely about the SAC’s imminent demise and a collapsed military across the country.

Not dead yet: Myanmar soldiers on parade in Naypyidaw in a March 2023 photo. Image: Xinhua News Agency / X Screengrab

Some now discredited outfits were irresponsibly rash to predict” three to six months” of imminent large-scale, coordinated urban attacks on SAC positions and to the fact that various “tipping points” toward regime collapse had already been reached.

Longer forecasts of conflict and more accurate depiction of the multiple challenges that will arise from an insurgent military victory will result from careful and honest analysis over jingoistic triumphalism.

As Operation 1027 moves into its next stage, its leaders and strategists will have to carefully consider the lessons learned from October 2023 and adapt their strategies and plans for the most likely still-unfinished battle ahead.

David Scott Mathieson is an independent analyst who studies human rights, conflict, and human rights in Myanmar.

Continue Reading

Ukraine war will end in surrender – Asia Times

The Ukraine conflict may end in a capitulation, not in a brokered offer. That gives me an idea of where the conflict is going and why the events are unable to reach a compromise.

The latest blemish in the missing negotiating story is a declaration&nbsp, in the form of an exam given by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the&nbsp, Philadelphia Inquirer. &nbsp, &nbsp,

In the interview, Zelensky said there&nbsp, ca n’t be direct negotiations&nbsp, between Ukraine and Russia but there could be indirect negotiations through a third party. In Zelensky’s proposed situation, the third group may serve as an entity and any offer will only be with the middleman, no between Russia or Ukraine. The UN had play this role, according to Zellensky.

The Zelensky plan is a non-starter for a number of factors, but the most important being that all conflicting states must come to an agreement before the issue can be resolved. &nbsp,

There is no hope of a third party implementing any deal, as the failed Minsk agreements ( 2014, 2015 ) proved. In a hybrid case, Russia, Ukraine, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe ( OSCE ) signed the deal. &nbsp,

The OSCE proved incapable and willing to try to impose the Minsk accords, and Ukraine refused to follow through on the agreement. Germany and France both supported the agreement, but neither was officially required to do so in any way. &nbsp,

Zelensky’s “proposal” really is just another ruse to distract criticism of Ukraine for not wanting a negotiation with Russia. Zelensky is being kept out of the negotiating table by three powerful troops. &nbsp,

The most crucial aspect is that any agreements with Russia are opposed by the two major Anglo-Saxon players in NATO, specifically the US and the UK. The US has tried everything, including imposing sanctions and diplomatic methods, to halt any discussions with Russia on anything other than slave exchanges. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The second reason is Ukrainian policy, sponsored by Zelensky, prohibiting agreements with Russia. If Zelensky requested them to do so, the Verkhovna Rada ( Ukraine’s parliament ), which is likely to do so, could rescind the legislation in a split second. &nbsp,

Zelensky absolutely controls the Ukrainian legislature, has arrested or exiled opposition lawmakers, and controls the media and other multimedia. Zelensky’s iron fist means that he wo n’t personally allow direct negotiations.

Zelensky even has signed&nbsp, a order prohibiting any negotiations&nbsp, with Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin.

The second reason relates to stress on Zelensky from difficult- right nationalists, including particularly the neo- Nazi Azov brigade. The best captain of Kiev’s troops in the Kharkov region, Lieutenant General Yuri Sodol, was fired, providing strong evidence for this.

Yuri Sodol. Photo: Ukrainska Pravda

Sodol was &nbsp, accused by Azov regiment leaders&nbsp, of killing more Russians than the Russians in the Kharkov wars. Zelensky obliged them by firing Sodol after Azov sent their concept to the Rada.

Since Sodol’s departure, Ukraine’s situation has worsened along the full line of contact. &nbsp, Russian war costs are extremely large, with as many as 2, 000 killed and wounded on some nights.

The Russians have stepped up their attacks with FAB fly bombs, including the monster&nbsp, FAB- 3000&nbsp, which only hit a Russian military command center in the Donbas town of&nbsp, New York&nbsp, and apparently killed 60 or more Russian military personnel.

Because Zelensky’s term of office expired in May, according to the Russians, he is no longer a feasible communicating partner. Since Zelensky served his name, there is some misunderstanding about the legal system in Ukraine, but experts from both inside and outside the country believe that the country’s leaders may be elevated to the position of the Rada. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Ruslan Stefanchuk, the speech of the Rada, is becoming more socially active, despite his opposition to Zelensky’s continued rule.

However, given the battle situation, the Russians no uncertainty determine that the time may soon arrive when the Russian army either collapses or surrenders, or both. &nbsp,

In either case, Russia will need to choose a temporary military command to replace the Russian authorities in some way. That would enable the Russians to come up with a surrender plan for a new government.

A black shadow has descended on Ukraine’s war leads. Image: Instagram Screengrab

NATO’s extended involvement in Ukraine would be difficult if the army of Ukraine surrendered and there was agreement with a Russia-appointed government.

When NATO understands what happened and why, that could lead to a security discourse between NATO and Russia. However, loading NATO with has- been political leaders like Marc Rutte does no bode well for the future of the empire. &nbsp,

The crucial message for NATO if the Russians win in Ukraine is that the security alliance may prevent expanding and look for a more robust relationship with Russia in Europe, as seems to be more and more probable.

Stephen Bryen is Asia Times ‘ senior correspondent. He also served as the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s staff director and its deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. &nbsp,

This&nbsp, article&nbsp, was first published on his&nbsp, Weapons and Strategy&nbsp, Substack and is republished with permission.

Continue Reading

China’s growing appetite for a space fight with US – Asia Times

A new RAND statement emphasizes China’s growing tactical maneuvers and risk tolerance, which are both extreme steps in a fight against US dominance in the space industry.

The People’s Liberation Army ( PLA )’s perspectives on space-based escalation over the past two decades are examined in the RAND report, which examines open-source Chinese defense literature.

It asserts that China’s leaders anticipate violent potential strategies, including the expanding military of space, from the US as a dominating but declining power.

According to the report, the PLA’s strategy includes both coercion and deterrence, a military combination that seeks to force adversaries to follow their political goals or face a damaging space-based war.

The statement outlines the PLA’s developing views on area- based escalation. These viewpoints reflect a growing wish to openly influence the rapidly changing geopolitical environment. First, the PLA’s tactical thinking was generally theoretical, focusing on discord prevention.

RAND mentions that the PLA switched its place operations strategy in 2013 and put a focus on defense vs. military escalation in order to achieve social goals.

It outlines a four- move increase rope involving demonstrating area power, space martial exercises, disposition of space forces and space strikes. The goal of the plan is to entice competitors into obedience while avoiding full-fledged issue.

According to the report, the PLA’s perception of the US as a declining power probable to resort to military has a significant impact on the move toward higher threat tolerance in space. Additionally, it asserts that the PLA’s growing risk tolerance in place has been influenced by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s control. &nbsp,

RAND advises that US officials may anticipate rapid decisions made in the face of communication gaps and refrain from requesting the PLA’s assistance in space crises. It advises the US Space Force ( USSF ) to get ready for hostile PLA operations in space, even during wartime.

China may make its space-power known by conducting low-intensity tests of superior space technology, usually during periods of peace or when there is a crisis, to demonstrate its ability and solve without engaging in conflict.

Asia Times reported that China’s small spacecraft spent 276 days in trajectory after its August 2022 release, and that in May 2023, it landed on an unknown airport in the Gobi Desert.

China’s spacecraft may have made an appearance at the Lop Nur nuclear test site, which has previously been used for spaceplane recovery, or at the Dingxin Test and Training Base, where the PLA-Air Force ( PLA-AF ) regularly conducts large-scale exercises.

The situation was hailed as a prominent achievement in the country’s space program by Chinese state media.

LeoLabs, a personal space services firm, reported the same month that China’s little spaceplane had carried out numerous maneuvers and docking missions while traveling in space with a different smaller object.

The Financial Times (FT ) reported in October 2021 that China launched a hypersonic missile with nuclear capability that circled the globe before heading its way.

The check, which was not publicly disclosed and apparently caught US intelligence off guard, demonstrated China’s major advancement in fast technology, according to FT. Studies indicated the weapon missed its mark by “only” 38 km.

According to the FT statement, hypersonic glide automobiles can evade US missile defense systems because of their flexibility and lower path.

The hypersonic missile test came at a time when conflicts between the US and China grew and China’s military operations were still continued close to Taiwan.

China portrayed the hypersonic missile test as a daily place car test for aircraft reuse, despite the US’s concerns about China’s growing defense capabilities, which it claims contribute to regional and global volatility.

China can likewise carefully position its area forces for possible offensive operations. This strategy includes launching and maneuvering storage assets to make people feel as though they are in immediate danger and urging adversaries to reevaluate their actions.

In a February 2023 Breaking Defense content, Sam Bresnick points out that China is now the second-largest area power behind the US thanks to its accelerated growth in the space industry, which included a significant increase in satellite launch over the past five years.

Bresnick information that the PLA has integrated these spacecraft into its military philosophy, enhancing transportation, security, communication and missile warning devices capabilities.

He adds that China’s focus on satellite resilience – through proliferation, orbital diversification and rapid launch ability – has established a robust space architecture, potentially more resilient than the US’s.

He also makes the point that China’s ability to launch space launches ( TRSL ) quickly surpasses that of the US, which must be done in order for the US to maintain its strategic advantage in space.

China’s space escalation strategy has the potential to launch sporadic, targeted strikes on crucial space assets like command and control nodes. By demonstrating the ability and willingness to escalate, such actions would coerce adversaries like the US into abandoning their goals.

In a June 2024 article for the China Aerospace Studies Institute ( CASI), David Chen mentions that China’s Shenlong spaceplane is capable of extended orbital presence and quick redeployment, signaling strategic intent by maneuvering and deploying payloads like rendezvous and proximity operations ( RPO)-capable microsatellites.

Chen points out that China can perform offensive maneuvers against adversaries with the aid of its RPO missions from 2020 to 2023, which will enable it to disable or capture enemy satellites.

He adds that there is another crucial aspect of cyber-electronic warfare, with China developing systems to intercept and hack enemy communications and GPS satellites. China is a formidable adversary in space warfare, according to Chen as he goes on to say that these efforts, combined with the potential deployment of directed energy weapons, pose a number of threats to space-based command and control nodes.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS ) think tank asserts in its Space Threat Assessment 2024 that China considers its space and counter-space capabilities to be essential to its national security strategy when evaluating China’s expanding space capabilities.

It points out that China’s desire to use counter-space systems to deter and counter foreign involvement in regional conflicts, such as the potential for a war with the US in the Taiwan Strait, is the driving force behind this emphasis.

Continue Reading

Samsung’s chip workers on verge of all-out strike – Asia Times

Samsung employees in South Korea staged their first ever strike on June 7th, led by the Nationwide Samsung Electronics Union ( NSEU). This traditional celebration involved nearly 28, 000 union people, representing about one- five of Samsung’s labor in South Korea.

The attack targeted Samsung’s device division, which manufactures a variety of vital components such as RAM, NAND display chips, USB sticks, SD cards, Exynos processors, cameras sensors, modems, NFC chips, and power/display controllers.

The motion highlighted deep-rooted issues with unionization at Samsung, indicating a major shift in the organization’s labor dynamics. Union users posted obvious notices detailing their grievances and demands on Samsung service doors throughout the hit.

Lee Hyun- kuk, evil president of the National Samsung Electronics Union, described this motion as “largely metaphorical, but it’s a beginning”. He made it clear that the union has emergency plans for upcoming scares if management does n’t file its problems. Additionally, he further stated that a general attack could be planned out entirely, underscoring the union’s unwavering support for their needs.

The union is pushing for a 6.5 % salary hike, in contrast to the company’s proposed 5.1 % raise, as well as an additional day of annual leave and a more transparent approach to calculating bonuses. Prizes are particularly crucial because they account for a sizable portion of an employee’s salary.

In 2023, the method for calculating prizes, which takes into account both running revenue and cost of capital, resulted in no payouts being paid to employees. According to the coalition, operating profit should be the only factor in bonuses. In the first quarter of this year, Samsung’s device department reported a profit of US$ 1.4 billion.

Samsung Group has consistently opposed labor negotiations, leading to policies that demand lower wages, little benefits, and extended work time.

In December 2013, the Korean Metal Workers ‘ Union ( KMWU), supported by theIndustriALL Global Union, revealed widespread violations of workers ‘ rights within Samsung. These violations included studies of kidnapping and physical assault on union leaders, as well as management-focused education programs intended to stop union creation.

Samsung’s reputation in the world IT sector is even hampered by its labor-intensive working environment, which entails long days and a reliance on precarious employment arrangements. The company positively discourages unionized vulnerable employees from joining unions and makes pressure on them to disengage from their delegate organizations.

This practice involves paying union members lower wages and monitoring them closely, which raises important honest questions about how Samsung treats its workforce in the technology sector.

Samsung Electronics Co, Ltd’s labor structure reveals major discrepancies because it is structured. Highly paid professionals and those involved in research and development are essential for creativity and product creation.

In the middle level are experienced tradespeople and manufacturing staff needed for production but frequently encountered difficult conditions at Samsung’s world businesses, including those in South Korea.

At the lower end of Samsung’s work order are workers employed by companies and subcontractors, a team for whom Samsung denies duty despite their important part in the company’s operations.

The intensive work environment at Samsung became clear during the 2012 Samsung vs. Apple trademark test, which exposed stringent working conditions for research and development staff. The strenuous nature of the job, including the long workdays that had an impact on one’s personal well-being and family life, was brilliantly depicted in the testimony of key designer Wang Jee-yuen.

Women make up the majority of Samsung’s skilled workforce, generally coming from smaller towns to function in semiconductor labs. They endure lengthy swings, rotating schedule and coverage to harmful substances.

Samsung is not the only company to exploit its employees. According to research, today’s phone workers are abused 25 times more than textile staff in 19th-century England. The iPhone workers ‘ incredibly high exploitation rate is 2 458 %.

This results in employees producing the goods that increase the company’s profits, but only a small portion of their day’s earnings are paid for it.

Amazon, a significant company in the US, is famous for its hard working conditions. As part of their daily task risks, Amazon employees encounter natural stress, workplace accidents, and mental health issues.

The business makes use of innovative surveillance systems to carefully monitor employee behavior. Although Amazon claims that these measures improve safety, employees frequently feel pressured to move at an exceptionally rapid pace in order to meet productivity goals.

Secondly, Amazon has actively opposed labor attempts among its workforce. The business spent$ 4.2 million on professionals in 2021 to dissuade employees from joining organizations.

However, with the establishment of the Amazon Labor Union ( ALU), which would be the first union at an Amazon US facility, workers made a significant breakthrough on April 1, 2022. This success was the result of a year-long battle against Amazon’s aggressive techniques against unions, and it attracted the support of engaged workers and administrators at the Staten Island warehouse.

In 2011, employees at the Maruti- Suzuki Manesar IMT plant in India applied to record a new coalition, the Maruti Suzuki Employees Union ( MSEU), in Chandigarh. Management reportedly pressured employees to sign paperwork pledging not to visit the MSEU after learning about this initiative.

In reply, 3, 000 staff launched a sit- in attack on June 4, 2011, at the Manesar Plant, demanding acknowledgment of the MSEU. To further strain the workers, control fired 11 employees, including MSEU business bearers, on June 6 of that year, accusing them of inciting the attack.

Maruti Suzuki has changed its workforce strategy over time by reducing the number of contract workers working in precarious conditions while keeping a smaller core of permanent employees.

These labor movements demonstrate the ongoing global fight of workers against exploitation by powerful corporations. They stress the difficulties and unfair treatment that the workers are subject to and the need for systemic reform to ensure fair treatment and the equitable distribution of the profits from their labor.

Pranjal Pandey, a journalist and editor based in Delhi, has edited seven books that cover a variety of topics for LeftWord. On NewsClick, you can read more about his journalistic contributions. in.

This article was produced by Globetrotter and is licensed for publication.

Continue Reading

Huawei, ZTE forging ahead with next-level 5G – Asia Times

Huawei and ZTE are developing and releasing 5G- Advanced system services, strengthening the Chinese telecoms giants ‘ position as the world leader in smart communications. The Mobile World Congress ( MWC ) exhibition, which took place in Shanghai from June 26 through June 28, featured the new technologies.

Compared with regular 5G telecommunications, 5G- Advanced ( abbreviated as 5G- A and also known as 5.5G), “represents a 10- slide improvement in performance across the board … as well as substantial reductions in total system power consumption”, according to Counterpoint, a technology market research organization.

According to industry analysts, 5G- A offers excellent positioning and timing in addition to significantly faster uplink and downlink speeds.

” 2024 marks the first year for corporate 5G and the introduction of AI into a wider range of equipment.” The mobile AI era is on the horizon, where intelligent services will be pervasive”, said David Wang ( Wang Tao ), Huawei’s executive director and chairman of the company’s ICT Infrastructure Managing Board, in an MWC address.

Wang added that the first standards discharge for 5G- A, known as 3GPP Release- 18, was actually frozen on June 28 in Shanghai, and that …” business 5.5G terminals are then ready to face the planet”. 3GPP stands for 3rd Generation Partner Project, a group of requirements- building companies that develop methods for wireless telecommunications.

Chinese mobile telecoms providers, including China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, and China Broadnet, are both rolling out 5G-A or making plans to do so.

China Mobile hopes to use the systems in 300 cities in China, according to a report from LightReading, and that it will have a large-scale deployment in the next two years.

China Broadnet has even launched 5G- A service, while China Unicom has started a captain job. China Telecom has released an” activity plan,” but it has not provided a start date.

The Middle East has been the site of the first 5G-A installations abroad. In Shanghai, Huawei launched its international 5G- A Pioneers Program, which includes du, the ( United Arab ) Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company and Oman Telecommunications.

Zain, a portable telecoms provider in Saudi Arabia, launched 5G-A companies last year and plans to cover 18 towns nationwide by the end of the decade.

Mobile AI applications on display in Shanghai included automatic driving, flying taxis, medical help, hotel management, test monitoring, sports commentary and algorithmic detection.

China Mobile and another Chinese companies plan to build AI techniques for state, public services and business enterprises, including big speech models for a range of industries.

The organizer of the MWC events, Mats Granryd, director general of the Groupe Spécial Mobile ( GSM) Association, stated to the audience that China’s growing presence in the world of large language models makes its mobile telecom carriers crucial to the development of AI.

Although Chinese models are essential to the creation of new mobile AI applications, they may not be as developed as American models.

Xiao Ming, president of overseas operations at ZTE Corporation, told Light Reading:” Years ago, we were the first in the industry to combine AI technology with 5G energy- saving technology…

” With the advent of large model technology, ZTE has applied these models to improve R&amp, D and operational efficiency. Our self-developed Nebula programming large model, which is ranked among the best in HumanEval, [a benchmark for comparing the performance of large language models ]…

” At our Nanjing Binjiang Intelligent Manufacturing Base, we actively employ large industrial models to create a new intelligent computing factory, optimizing costs, efficiency, energy consumption and quality to the extreme …”.

ZTE is working with over 1, 000 potential customers across 15 industries. Among other things, the company has created AI models for managing water resources, identifying gas leaks and road hazards, and generating emergency response plans.

China’s “low- altitude economy” was also featured at the exhibition in Shanghai. Now a government priority, it uses drones, electric vertical take- off and landing (VTOL ) flying taxis, the country’s Beidou satellite- based navigation system, low- Earth orbit satellites and airborne and surface mobile telecom terminals to deliver products and services.

China Telecom demonstrated a drone control system made up of Beidou and a 4G/5G airborne terminal, but the business’s development requires a faster and more accurate 5G-A. From delivery services to surveying and mapping, there is huge economic potential nationwide.

Shenzhen, the capital city that includes Beijing and the port city of Tianjin, plans to establish the national standard with the creation of more than 5, 000 related businesses over the next three years, according to China Daily, which was the first Chinese city to pass legislation to support the development of a low-altitude economy.

There is potential overseas, particularly in those regions of the Global South where American alarm bells are neither heard nor heeded. More accurate than GPS, has more satellites, and far more monitoring stations.

Although US sanctions apply to Chinese drones, visitors from more than 100 nations came to Shenzhen for the 8th Drone World Congress and the 9th Shenzhen International UAV Expo to view and purchase goods made by about 500 Chinese companies.

The low-altitude economy already appears to be another next-generation, tech-driven market where China is poised to take the global lead, despite the US government’s focus being on the military’s effects of drones.

Follow this writer on&nbsp, X: @ScottFo83517667

Continue Reading

The fool’s-based international order – Asia Times

Second, Biden, then Macron, and then the terrible Rishi Sunak, who arrived the following week. Japan’s Kishida, Germany’s Scholz and Canada’s Trudeau remain in office only because the election cycle does n’t require them to assay the voters.

Every big American nation’s federal is falling or had collapse if it had to hold elections, for the first time since contemporary European states were defined by the Treaty of Westphalia. What social plague has beenfalling the West’s leaders, leading to a widening turnout for all of their voters?

There is a straightforward justification for the social damage of the West’s governments: All of them consented to an agenda that their voters rejected because it had harmed the quality of their lives. Naturally and instantly, the citizens of the West are rising up to reject their leaders.

The harm to the country’s social class is amazing.

In the first round of the snap poll that Macron called following the tragic European Parliament poll of June 9, the second results from France show that Emmanuel Macron’s center-based balloon party drew only a five of the vote. Le Pen’s National Rally, tendentiously labeled the “extreme right” by the media echo chamber, came in at 34 % while the leftist coalition garnered 28 %.

72 % of Americans, meanwhile, think that Joseph Biden is n’t mentally fit to be president ( the other 28 % presumably includes a large number of dementia victims ). 56 % of Americans disapprove of his achievement.

In the European Parliament elections on June 9th, the three events that make up the German governing coalition collectively received only 30 % of the voting. The country’s second- largest party, the Alternative für Deutschland ( AfD ), has 16 % of the vote, enough to force itself into a coalition that the formerly mainstream parties have sworn never to consider.

Fumio Kishida, the prime minister of Japan, has a 13 % approval rating and won only twelfth of the vote in his own party. With a 28 % approval rating, Canada’s Justin Trudeau appears to be the leper with the most fingers.

What is the objective that the West’s voters have rejected? After the fall of Socialism in 1990, America’s aristocracy had the resources to frog-marge the rest of the industrialized world into its strategy.

The first is a worldwide partnership expanding NATO to the border between Russia and Ukraine in order to remove and weaken Russia. That is exactly what led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as Donald Trump declared on June 21.

In March 2022, Biden promised that sanctions may reduce the Soviet economy in half, rather, Russia’s economy has grown and is now larger than Japan’s, according to the World Bank, and Moscow has the upper hand in a grinding war of attrition. The rise in support for other German parties on June 9 was essentially a peace vote because the war is incredibly unpopular in Europe.

The next was a global partnership that prioritized business output over the climate change agenda. In the US, the Biden presidency hobbled the removal of oils. US petroleum exports doubled under the Trump administration, but now they have only little recovered to their previous high after a sharp decline.

After the Merkel state acceded to the Green Party plan and shut down the nation’s nuclear power plants, the Ukraine war in Germany prevented Germany from getting cheap Russian energy. Electricity prices played a significant role in the recent three-year prices cycle.

The fourth deal addressed the declining population of industrialized countries. In the case of Europe, all the leaders of the big European nations agreed that they would take large numbers of immigrants from developing nations to their west, Middle Eastern Muslims and sub-Saharan Africans, and Central Americans in the case of the United States.

This is not quite the” Great Replacement Theory” of conspiracy theory idea. Even so, it comes near: The elite had envisioned a new international melting pot of ethnic admixture that would diluted and devalue the West’s cultures.

Immigration is by far the most significant of these three because it implies the reconfiguration of social and economic life in the industrialized world and the deterioration of the country’s base.

The nationalist uprising against this worldwide agreement, led by Viktor Orban in Hungary and Donald Trump in the US, was unavoidable. The leaders will also use their swords against themselves for this problem.

In order to support the left-wing National Front, Macron’s leading Gabriel Attal ordered individuals in his party’s third-place candidates to retreat from the second round of voting on July 7 in the midst of yesterday’s election disaster, favoring the republican right over the extraordinary left.

According to Le Monde, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the radical left party La France Insoumise ( LFI), called on left-wing candidates who placed third but still qualified for the second round to withdraw to support the better-placed candidate to defeat the RN. No one vote, no one chair more for the RN,’ he said”.

The socialists, after all, are globalists of a unique line, with some serious objections to financial control by aristocracy but extremely angry to national independence. The most important issue is the breaking of national boundaries, national cultures, and national populations in the great wave of migration that they have done a lot to encourage, and globalists of Macron’s ( or Angela Merkel’s, or Rishi Sunak’s ) stripe agree with the socialists.

France is now 8 % to 10 % Muslim, according to the Pew Survey, it will be 18 % Muslim by 2050 in a high migration scenario while Germany will have a 20 % Muslim population. Migrants are the main political parties ‘ constituents, which aligns the socialist returned with the bourgeois center.

The centre- kept empire of anguish cannot govern France, to be sure. A split-off from the traditional Left (” Die Linke” ) led by Sahra Wagenknecht is currently polling with 9 % of the federal vote, which is unfavorable. The Wagenknecht group, which has won some votes from the AfD, now accounts for 17 % of the total, combines traditional socialist politics with a strong anti-immigration stance.

It’s not yet clear whether the National Rally’s despair alliance with the former investment banker Macron may prevent the National Rally from winning the July 7 square or not.

Maybe France will just go into conflict rather than sputter away around a nationalist government. Germany will have a protracted wait before its future national vote, which will take place at the end of 2025, with the AfD leading by large profits in the state elections scheduled for September 1.

British politics, however, is in conflict after Biden’s breathtaking display of memory in his conversation with Trump on June 27. Democrats cannot survive without Biden as a member, which makes Trump’s election very likely, just as they cannot live without him.

And Trump has no use for the international mission that the British aristocracy imposed on the earth after 1990. The information coming from Washington is: You’re on your own and it’s every person for himself.

Spengler is channeled by David P. Goldman. Following him on X at @davidpgoldman

Continue Reading

The expansion of BRICS+: More may be better – Asia Times

Malaysia&nbsp, and&nbsp, Thailand&nbsp, just unveiled their plans to join BRICS, which has been rechristened as BRICS with the induction of new people. This international bloc of developing economies in the twenty-first century is frequently seen as an emerging administrative group of the Global South countries aiming to create a robust and diverse multipolar world order.

With its list of new entrants including Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the clustering has expanded to a ten- associate- sturdy club from the four founding members – Brazil, Russia, India, China – and South Africa, which had joined the second four earlier to put the S to the name.

The BRICS team has been strengthened by China and Russia in the midst of the US punishment, as well as with the Middle East, particularly Iran. &nbsp,

BRICS now represents roughly 3.64 billion persons who constitute about 45.78 percent of the country’s inhabitants. Together, people ‘ markets are worth more than&nbsp,$ 28.5 trillion&nbsp, – about 28 % of the global economy.

At least 34 different nations have indicated their interest in joining the bloc, according to South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation.

The gathering makes significant inroads in the ASEAN place now that Malaysia and Thailand have expressed their intentions to join BRICS . Indonesia, a former part of the ASEAN, has also expressed an interest in joining, despite having been more obnoxious about the situation. Moving ahead, Vietnam, the Lao PDR and Cambodia may be possible candidates. Rumours claim that Türkiye is considering a potential BRICS membership, which will take time.

Why are Thailand and Malaysia interested in joining?

BRICS aims to establish itself as a&nbsp, a platform for developing countries to voice their concerns and pursuits regarding the development and operation of the global financial system. The deterioration of the existing global order is a tell-tale indicator of the growing acceptance of BRICS/BRICS . The emerging relationships may not be adequately explained by looking at the BRICS/from the US-China/Russia rivalry’s files.

A closer examination of the positions of the BRICS members on issues involving international institutions and foreign governmental organizations reveals that their positions align with one another, particularly in the area of international financial architecture.

The BRICS encourages the use of local currencies in transactions between its member state while also avoiding deal in US dollars. They also support rules-based, opened, and clear global business. This goal is supported by the growth of its membership. A new choice by Saudi Arabia to&nbsp, ending a 50- time consists package with the US for multi- currency sales &nbsp, may also be read in this context.

BRICS and BRICS represent the tones of the Global South, which have been urging the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund&nbsp, ( IMF) &nbsp, to make substantial changes and to be more accountable&nbsp, &nbsp, and diverse in their view.

Moreover, BRICS has been fighting ever-present for a complete overhaul of the UN Security Council, arguing that its latest membership structure, which includes the five permanent members, does not adequately represent the interests of the worldwide community.

Malaysia’s determination to steer clear of any part results amid the growing US- China competition is natural. However, choosing the BRICS for Thailand, a long-standing and near alliance of the US, surprises some. Reading too much of the” China element” into this would be misleading.

For one thing, Malaysia joined the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework ( IPEF ) much before it expressed any interest in the BRICS, despite Malaysia having yet to make its position known. Furthermore, there has been no downward tendency in Thailand’s relationships with the US and the West. BRICS, therefore, is more about grabbing more international opportunities than being a part of an pro- US/anti- Western club. The presence of India, Saudi Arabia and the UAE now dilutes any such attempt or tales, for that matter.

ASEAN and de- dollarisation

At the 42nd&nbsp, ASEAN Summit, part states agreed to encourage the use of local money for purchases. The bloc’s approach to changing from widely used economies like the US dollars appears to be this. ASEAN nations appear to be preparing themselves for any situation in which their business is impacted by any sanctions because Washington has increasingly harmed the US dollar with punitive sanctions.

It is natural that nations feel vulnerable combining robust business with China and a dependence on the US buck for trade, especially with the US- China trade war and de-coupling going on for a long time. They should be able to deal in both local and foreign currencies.

In other words, de-dollarization is a precautionary measure to guard against the event that the US imposes more sanctions on its rivals and adversaries, including Russia ( but also China ). According to Anwar Ibrahim, Malaysia needed to look at de- devaluations, and he even&nbsp, backed the concept of an Asian Monetary Fund. South Asian countries are becoming more cautious because of the economy’s involvement in US-imposed sanctions. &nbsp,

US punitive punishment

These fears are no unfounded. For example, Anwar has received threats of punishment from European nations and their staff in Malaysia because he has been very vocal about his concerns about the Palestinians ‘ situation. In December 2023, the US Treasury Department fined four Malaysian-based companies after they claimed they had assisted Iran in producing robots.

Washington accuses Iran of providing deadly robots to Russia for use in Ukraine and as a proxy for Middle Eastern terrorists, according to Washington. One of the 300 companies that Washington placed sanctions on next month is Malaysia-based semiconductor company Jatronics Sdn Bhd, which is said to have had ties to Russian military supplies.

Anwar Ibrahim made the keynote address at the SEMICON Southeast Asia 2024 technical meeting last month, claiming that his nation is the ideal “neutral and non-aligned” number for semiconductor manufacturers in the wake of the US-China technology conflict and that his government plans to entice US$ 100 billion in new investment.

Anwar praised the US as a significant investment partner and a major export market place for Malaysian chips, but he emphasized that his administration could not impose unilateral sanctions that would impede his nation’s independence.

China: not the only factor

By 2050, the BRICS members will account for about 40 % of the global economy, according to Goldman Sachs ‘ economist Jim O’Neill’s projections. Between 2012 and 2022, the BRICS countries combined contributed more than 45 % of the world’s GDP, with China alone accounting for about 25 % of this growth. &nbsp,

China is viewed as a key member of the BRICS because of its economic strength and growing role in international affairs, both from the perspective of intra-bloc trade flows and the bloc’s foreign policy perspectives. From 2009 to 2023, China has remained Malaysia’s most significant trading partner, accounting for US$ 95.8 billion in total trade.

Naturally, China’s prominence in the BRICS makes Malaysia feel more secure. China is Thailand’s largest trade partner as well. The trade between China and Thailand increased by US$ 13 billion in 2023 despite continuing to grow for the past five years. For Malaysia and Thailand to join the BRICS makes sense in terms of business. &nbsp,

That said, China is not the only factor binding BRICS together. Russia or China for that matter are both much more important than the BRICS. Southeast Asian nations like Malaysia and Thailand are already interconnected with China in a number of ways through bilateral and ASEAN-led multilateral agreements, so they do n’t need to approach BRICS forums to engage with China.

India, South Africa, and Brazil are the three main emerging economies in the modern financial system and global politics with strong ties to the US and its allies in the West and Asian worlds as well. While assessing the BRICS, it is unfortunate that these three nations have their own minilateral, IBSA, despite how inactive it is. &nbsp,

Conclusion

Despite China being neither a rising economic nor military power, it is actually one of the two superpowers and technically does not belong to the Global South any longer. BRICS, which started as a primarily economic initiative to facilitate the transmission of economic clout to the Global South, has grown into an important multilateral grouping representing the rising powers of the world. The BRICS face challenges and opportunities because of their diverse membership and the presence of China and Russia. &nbsp,

It is not likely to be a Sino-Russian-centric bloc aimed at drawing diplomatic blows at the US, though one cannot look into a crystal ball and predict the future of BRICS/BRICS . When at their best, BRICS will counteract the current West-led liberal international order by combining the world’s various viewpoints into one that best fits the bloc’s shared minimum goals rather than a Sino-Russian club with some friends.

Members ‘ deteriorating sentiments regarding Beijing’s diplomatic acceptability and the bloc’s heavy economic and trade dependence on China make the bloc vulnerable. China’s hegemonic ambitions have &nbsp, subverted this grouping of solidarity&nbsp, of the Global South especially in the context of relations with India. India’s explosive growth and growing geopolitical influence also put a strain on the BRICS’s ability to stay China-focused.

A growing multi-regional and multilateral bloc may not be able to produce any alliance-style outcomes based on the examples of other large groups like the EU or ASEAN, given the differences in economic status, cultural background, individual country agendas, and their respective balancing acts in relation to the US and its allies.

The BRICS multilateral will be further democratized by the addition of Malaysia and Thailand, keeping it a few more steps away from member dominance. Avoidance of domination, after all, is precisely what BRICS stands for.

Continue Reading