FraudGPT, WormGPT and the rise of dark LLMs – Asia Times

The online, a large and valuable resource for contemporary society, has a darker side where nefarious activities thrive.

Cybercriminals constantly develop new scam strategies, from identity fraud to complex malware attacks.

The generative artificial intelligence ( AI ) tools that are now widely available have now added a new layer of complexity to the field of cyber security. Online safety is more critical than ever.

The development of “dark LLMs” ( large language models ) is one of the most sinister adaptations of current AI.

These unencrypted adaptations of common AI techniques like ChatGPT have been redesigned to support criminal activities. They operate without moral considerations and with disturbing accuracy and speed.

Cyber criminals use elaborate LLMs to create powerful malware, create scam content, and automate and enhance phishing campaigns.

To achieve this, they engage in LLM “jailbreaking” – using causes to get the model to pass its built-in protection and frames.

For starters, FraudGPT writes harmful code, creates phishing sites and generates invisible malware. It offers equipment for orchestrating various threats, from credit card fraud to online impersonation.

FraudGPT is promoted on Telegram and the encrypted communications apps Telegram. Its creator boldly markets its abilities, emphasising the woman’s legal focus.

Another type, WormGPT, produces compelling phishing messages that can trap also vigilant users. Based on the GPT-J design, WormGPT is also used for creating malicious and launching “business internet compromise” problems – targeted hacking of certain organizations.

What can we do to safeguard ourselves?

Despite the looming risks, there is a silver coating. How can we fight them as the problems get more difficult.

Concern diagnosis tools based on artificial intelligence can better identify malware and prevent cyberattacks. Humans must remain involved to monitor how these devices react, what they do, and whether there are any flaws that need to be fixed, though.

You might have heard that up-to-date software is essential for safety. It may feel like a hobby, but it really is a crucial security plan. Updates piece up the flaws that cyber thieves attempt to exploit.

Do you constantly backup your data and files? In the event of a system failure, it’s not just about preserving records. Important protection strategies include regular backups. If you are the target of a ransomware attack and are the victim of one, you can regain your digital life without resorting to extortion. This is when criminals demand a compensation settlement before releasing it.

Cybercriminals who send hacking messages can keep clues like poor grammar, common greetings, suspicious email addresses, extremely serious requests or dubious links. It’s just as important to keep an eye on these evidence as you lock your door at night.

If you do n’t already use strong, unique passwords and multi-factor authentication, it’s time to do so. Your safety is significantly increased by this blend, making it much harder for hackers to access your accounts.

Our online presence will continue to be connected to cutting-edge AI and new innovations. Additionally, we can anticipate the development of more advanced crime tools.

Harmful AI will increase phishing, develop superior malware, and make data mining for targeted attacks easier. AI-driven hackers tools will be widely accessible and customizable.

In response, computer security will have to adjust, to. We can expect automated risk looking, quantum-resistant encryption, AI tools that help to preserve privacy, greater laws and international assistance.

The role of government rules

One way to combat these superior threats is through tougher government regulations on AI. This would require that AI technologies be ethically developed and deployed, and that they be required to have solid security features and follow strict standards.

We need to improve how businesses respond to cyberattacks, as well as the mechanisms for required monitoring and consumer publication, in addition to tighter rules.

By requiring businesses to immediately report digital incidents, authorities can act quickly. They may mobilize resources to stop breaches before they become big problems.

By taking proactive steps, preserving both organizational integrity and public trust, can significantly reduce the impact of cyberattacks.

However, crime knows no edges. In the age of AI-powered cybersecurity, global collaboration is essential. Effective international cooperation can streamline the way that law enforcement can identify and prosecute cyber criminals, putting together a single voice in the face of digital threats.

As AI-powered malware proliferates, we’re at a crucial junction in the global tech trip: we need to balance creativity ( new AI resources, new capabilities, more data ) with security and privacy.

Ultimately, it’s best to be proactive about your own website security. That means you may stay one step ahead in the ever-evolving computer battle.

Bayu Anggorojati is Assistant Professor, Cyber Security, Monash University, Arif Perdana is Associate Professor in Digital Strategy and Data Science, Monash University, and Derry Wijaya is Associate Professor of Data Science, Monash University

The Conversation has republished this essay under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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US boosts B-2 bombers amid B-21 production delays – Asia Times

The US has upgraded its reputation B-2 Spirit cunning bombers with cutting-edge technology, slashing release times and supercharging fight preparation against near-peer enemies.

The decision comes as a result of probable production bottlenecks in Northrop Grumman‘s next-generation B-21 Raider cunning bomb program for the US Air Force.

The US Air Force has updated its B-2 stealth bomber with new open missions systems ( OMS ) software capabilities and other improvements, according to Air &amp, Space Forces Magazine, which was published this month.

According to the report, the B-2 Systems Program Office and the Air Force Global Strike Command collaborated to create the switch, known as Spirit Realm 1, which aims to keep the bomb trustworthy and relevant until the B-21 is functional.

The time needed for program updates has significantly decreased thanks to the agile software development process used for the B-2, which now takes less than three months in comparison to the previous two-year pattern. That, in turn, allows for quicker integration of new weapons and constant application improvements, immediately enhancing combat potential.

The suspect’s connectivity with other devices is improved by the OMS structures, according to Air &amp, Space Forces Magazine. It even says the switch includes better shows, flight technology and resilience enhancements.

According to the same report, the B-2 fleet, which is now number 19 after two crashes, will remain the US Air Force’s even perceptive aircraft until the B-21s achieve Ellsworth Air Force Base’s first operational capability. It also notes that the B-21’s initial operational capability ( IOC ) timeline is still undisclosed.

As for further B-2 weapons and hardware upgrades, Asia Times reported in September 2022 that the US deployed the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range ( JASSM-ER ) from a B-2 stealth bomber, potentially serving in a new anti-ship role in the Pacific.

This potential significantly enhances the aircraft’s ability to strike goals at any place, at any time, and greatly extends the range of the cruise missile.

The B-2 may take up to 16 JASSM weapons, including the extended-range JASSM-ER version. Thanks to improved gas power and a more effective turbofan website, the JASSM-ER version has a range of 965 kilometers, compared to the original version’s 400-kilometer range.

The development of crypto technology aims to improve high-frequency transmission security, making it possible to use secure conversation devices in probable future threat scenarios. The B-2 bomber can also use the B61 Mod 12 nuclear bomb for nuclear strike missions without GPS thanks to the upgrade to Radar Aided Targeting System (RATS ).

Combining the B-2 stealth bomber with the JASSM-ER cruise missile is expected to give the US an advantage in overcoming modern air defenses, potentially reducing risks for bomber crews in anti-access/area denial ( A2/AD ) environments.

The B-21 boasts many advantages over the 1980s B-2, with the original being smaller, sleeker, stealthier and future-proofed with empty systems structures. But, given China’s rapid military development and B-21 manufacturing issues, the US may not have much B-21s for a Taiwan strategy, forcing the US to maintain the B-2 in support longer than anticipated.

A 300-plus bomb power with at least 225 piercing B-21s is recommended in a March 2023 report for the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies for the ability to carry out enormous strikes against highly portable enemy forces in a Taiwan invasion and deter unscrupulous aggression in another theater.

Gunzinger points out that China’s military modernization campaign is on track to prepare it for a Taiwanese military occupation by 2027. A full-scale B-21 production rate of 20 or higher is essential.

However, Maya Carlin mentions in an article this month for The National Interest ( TNI ) that plans to build 300 B-21s over the next ten years at a production rate of just 10 aircraft per year at US$ 750 million may not be sufficient to deter US near-peer adversaries.

Carlin claims that Northrop Grumman’s production limitations are to blame for B-21 production shortfalls rather than US budget problems. She adds that while unmanned Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA ) shortfalls for US fighter aircraft can be accounted for, the B-21 bomber cannot be affected by this strategy.

The US Air Force anticipates having 24 to 30 B-21s operational by the early 2030s, with a production rate of up to 10 aircraft per year, according to Asia Times in June 2024, but that production rate is lower than the 20 aircraft per year for older bombers like the B-52 and B-1. B-21 aircraft may be in short supply as a result of this circumstance.

In a January 2022 article for Wild Blue Yonder ( WBY ), Megan Tonner-Robinson and other writers discuss how the US might use upgraded B-2s and B-21s in a Taiwan war with China. They point out that the large number of fighter jets and integrated air defense systems make it impossible for US fighter and strike aircraft to launch an assault in a conventional A2/AD environment.

Tonner-Robinson and others claim that the B-2 and B-21 stealth bombers ‘ advanced technology could enable them to successfully target crucial areas on the mainland, destroying important infrastructure like command centers, runways, fuel depots, and power grids.

They claim that the A2/AD system’s components are vulnerable for US fighters of the fifth and fourth generations to exploit and attack. They point out that the air battle would be one of attrition, with victory going to the side that can survive the longest in the air.

However, Tonner-Robinson and others say that combining stealth attacks, long-range cruise missile strikes, suppression of enemy air defense ( SEAD ) and cyber warfare could shift control of the airspace in favor of the US.

In addition to their deep penetration conventional strike roles, the B-2 and B-21 are slated to become cornerstones of the US air-based nuclear deterrent, with the upgraded B-2 supplementing the next-gen B-21.

Rebeccah Heinrichs and other authors claim that the B-21’s flexibility and extended range make it essential for keeping the growing number of Chinese and Russian conventional and strategic weapons, key facilities, and other items hidden deep in their territories at risk.

Heinrichs and others make the claim that the bombers ‘ incredible warfighting prowess against highly developed defenses gives the US deterrence credibility.

They point out that the B-21 bomber fleet can provide both conventional and nuclear deterrence in various regions, guaranteeing US support for allies and deterring potential adversaries while demonstrating the US’s commitment to global security.

Heinrichs and others point out that increasing the fleet size beyond 100 would lower the costs per plane because the B21’s operating and maintenance costs are comparable to those of other manned aircraft.

To deter near-peer adversaries and effectively engage in potential conflicts, they advise that the US make a plan to buy at least twice as many B-21 bombers as there were.

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Malaysia-Philippines diverge on China in South China Sea – Asia Times

At the current 37th&nbsp, Asia-Pacific Roundtable in Kuala Lumpur, differences between East Asian countries on the South China Sea matter were spewed across panels, speeches, and off-the-cuff remarks, even as delegates discussed local assistance opportunities and ASEAN centrality in an environment of worsening tremendous power tensions.

The South China Sea, according to Malaysia’s National Security Council director-general Raja Dato Nushirwan Zainal Abidin, accounts for 4 % of China’s bilateral relationship at best. Malaysia has de-emphasized the South China Sea matter and reiterated its willingness to negotiate with China with this statement.

In April last year, Prime Minister Anwar&nbsp, Ibrahim said&nbsp, he was willing to engage with China over its concerns that Petronas, a Malay power state-owned business, was developing a carbon capture task in the Kasawari oil industry, an place to which both countries lay state.

Anwar was criticized by the local opposition for supposedly validating China’s say to the place, a command that Anwar defended by insisting that he was merely open to negotiations. Whether or not it is real, Anwar insists on the necessity of negotiations with China and for Beijing to adhere to the guidelines set forth in the ASEAN Code of Conduct.

The problem is another claim countries, surely the Philippines, may not see conversations as the best way forward in countering China’s actions in the South China Sea. Manila has retreated from its earlier closer ties to China under the Duterte supervision under the command of Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

In recent months, Manila and Beijing have escalated into extremely alarming speech on both sides. According to Marcos, who specifically referred to current Chinese manoeuvres around the Second Thomas Shoal, the demise of any Filipino citizen as being caused by a “willful action” may be treated as being very close to an act of war.

Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro&nbsp, added&nbsp, that the South China Sea issue was “existential” for the country – a far cry from Malaysia’s attitude toward the dispute. &nbsp,

The stark divergence between Kuala Lumpur’s and Manila’s approaches and, by extension, between Manila’s more forthcoming position and ASEAN’s non-interference stance is generating critical implications for intra-ASEAN ties and the relevance of the organization.

Manila is undoubtedly diversifying its sources of security and enlisting regional and international powers to back its claims, despite ASEAN’s demonstrated reluctance to do so.

The Philippines is enhancing its defense cooperation with the US and purchasing more weapons from them as a result of the US’s recent resumption as a major security partner for Manila following a brief pause during the Trump administration.

At the same time, Manila is&nbsp, wooing&nbsp, the EU as European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has pledged to strengthen maritime security cooperation with the Philippines. Discussions of defense agreements with the Netherlands and Norway punctuated this statement. &nbsp,

In the region, Teodoro has also been hard at work, &nbsp, meeting&nbsp, with the South Korean and Singaporean defense ministers on the sidelines of the 21st Shangri-La Dialogue to strengthen security ties.

Manila has demonstrated that if ASEAN, and particularly an ASEAN led by Malaysia in 2025, does not support its position, the nation will step in and look elsewhere for real support.

These gaps are also not only present-day leaders in power, but they are also not exclusive to them. As nationalism grows over claims in the South China Sea and international powers like the US and China prepare to court allies in their growing conflict, ASEAN member states ‘ disagreements over how to handle the disputes only grow.

As the region searches for new security arrangements in response to these differences, it may eventually condemn ASEAN to inaction and impotence. &nbsp,

Olivia Tan, a senior analyst in Onyx’s Asia Practice who leads the firm’s work on China, is a Pacific Forum young leader. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author. The content herein does not necessarily represent the views of Expeditors and its affiliates, divisions, subsidiaries, officers, directors, and employees.

This article was first published by Pacific Forum, and it is now republished with permission.

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Netanyahu visit heightens US election drama – Asia Times

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting Washington, where he will attempt to navigate the political maze of a contentious US national election campaign where each side wants to take advantage of the Gaza war to their own benefits.

Netanyahu will address the US Congress on Wednesday ( July 24 ), beginning his US schedule there. He may try to justify his blatant occupation of the Gaza Strip, which he launched in retaliation for Hamas, an anti-Israeli Islamist movement that controlled Gaza for a day-long assault on Jewish areas. &nbsp,

Then comes a probable series of meetings with former president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris, both of whom are attempting to remove him. &nbsp, All will want to meet Netanyahu’s attend into their own special political demands.

Biden, who abruptly pulled out of his campaign for reelection on Sunday, will want to demonstrate that he is still in command rather than a unsuspecting lame duck. On Wednesday, he is scheduled to meet with Netanyahu.

On Wednesday, Biden and leading Democratic Party leaders and members of the party who will take the president’s place will also meet with the Israeli leader. She will make an effort to show off her experience and foreign policy sensibilities.

Netanyahu had to accept Harris ‘ insult to get the appointment: She is not going to a campaign rally in the US west. As vice president, she had usually preside over a joint program where the Senate is present.

Finally there’s ex-president Donald Trump, who is running against Harris on behalf of the Republican Party. He is meeting with Netanyahu, obviously at the Jewish party’s demand, later in the week at his home in Florida.

An unexpected trio of complications confronting a visiting international leader who leads a nearby US ally is Biden, Harris, and Trump.

Netanyahu has resisted&nbsp, Biden’s force to transform field tactics in Gaza – meaning, to kill fewer civilians, agree to a peace and discuss the development of a Palestinian state at the war’s end. Netanyahu opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state and just wants a temporary ceasefire.

A serious dispute between the two frontrunners dates back to 2015, when Biden was then-president Barack Obama’s vice president. Obama’s atomic weapons deal with Iran was supported by Bin Laden’s lobbying efforts against Israel.

At the time, he called it” a good deal, first and foremost, for the United States”, and went on to consider, &nbsp,” It’s a good deal for the earth, the area, and it’s a good deal for Israel…. I firmly believe it will make us and Israel safer, no weaker”.

Netanyahu rebuffed the offer from Republicans to handle Congress in order to raise objections to the Iran deal. Republicans arranged his meeting without discussing it with Obama.

” This is a bad deal – a very bad deal. We’re better off without it”, Netanyahu told the politicians. Finally, he waged lobbying among US lawmakers to deny the deal.

Along with her White House manager, Harris even disagrees with Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza war and opposition to the establishment of a Palestinian state. She was the first established in the Biden administration to call for a stop to fighting in order to avert the transfer of Jewish hostages held by Hamas. Just prolonged military pressure may free them, according to Netanyahu.

She made the ceasefire ball in Selma, Alabama, to African-American followers, a district that normally supports Liberals running for office but opposes Biden’s big military support for Israel in the Gaza war.

Trump has a long history of backing Israeli policies. In 2017, he formally recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. It was a move that several Israeli governments had long desired, but presidents of both US political parties had since refrained from doing so.

Trump also supports Netanyahu’s relentless war on Gaza, which is soon to enter its tenth month, but previously feel out with the leader for congratulating Biden for winning the 2020 election, which Trump has insisted was stolen. &nbsp,

Harris and Trump are making a concerted effort to sway a segment of US voters who are particularly interested in the subject: Trump, Trump, Harris, to persuade Arab Americans that she is concerned about Palestinian civilians, and Trump, to at least persuade Jewish Americans that they should abandon their customary support for Democratic Party candidates.

Netanyahu wanted to use his own political preferences to schedule all the meetings. He needs victory, as he has defined it, to stay in power. If he is ousted, he could face longstanding accusations of corruption.

The Jewish Telegraphic Agency, a New York City-based newspaper, reported that” Netanyahu has been looking for the meetings and the photo opportunities each would present, with both Harris and Trump.”

In the face of hostages held by Hamas, he said,” The meetings will come,” as he works to project a confident image abroad.

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Nvidia said to launch new AI chip for China – Asia Times

Nvidia, the world’s largest company by value, is reportedly developing a new artificial intelligence ( AI ) chip based on its flagship product B200 for the China market.

Reuters reported, citing a source with knowledge of the situation, that the mass production of the new device, which might be called B20, will begin after this year and that shipment will begin in the second quarter of the following year. &nbsp,

According to the report, Nvidia will collaborate with Inspur, one of its producers in peninsula China. But, Inspur claimed to have not yet started any B20-related businesses or partnerships. It asserted that the Reuters document is untrue. &nbsp,

Additionally, according to the Reuters report, the B20 may be created in a way to prevent the US from violating trade restrictions. &nbsp,

However, it’s unclear whether Nvidia will ultimately be able to start the B20 given that Washington may impose a tighter restrictions on exporting chips.

According to a research note cited by Jefferies experts, it is likely that the US Commerce Department’s quarterly review of its export settings in October will result in the H20 device being banned from sales to China. &nbsp,

The statement said the restrictions may occur in three ways: through a “product-specific restrictions, lowering the processing power cover, and/or putting a cap on memory power”.

Besides, it said the US may consider extending its import controls on cards sold to other Eastern countries, such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand – or extending the settings to overseas Chinese firms, although these would be harder to implement.

The report was made after the Wall Street Journal reported on an underground system that has been importing A100, which has been a sneaking crates into mainland China since October 2022. &nbsp,

According to the statement, some middlemen established research institutes in Southeast Asian nations like Singapore to acquire A100 chips from the US. When Chinese students who are returning from abroad for vacations, they are paid to take these cards to China. &nbsp,

In one case, a 26-year-old Taiwanese student properly brought six A100 cards in his baggage to China and made US$ 100 for each of them. &nbsp,

The standard marketing value of A100 is about$ 10, 000 while the device is priced at about$ 22, 500 in the black market in China. Customers of smuggled cards don’t use Nvidia’s insurance or repair services. &nbsp,

Castrated type:

In October 2022, the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security ( BIS ) banned the exports of the A100 and H100 chips to China. Next October, it blocked the shipping of the A800 and H200 and some other Artificial chips to China.

Nvidia therefore launched three AI cards, including the H20, L20 and L2, for the China market. &nbsp,

The single-chip performance of the H20, dubbed as the” castrated version” of H100, is about 15 % that of the H100. But the solution also sees strong demand from Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu and ByteDance. &nbsp,

The Financial Times estimated that Nvidia’s profits of H20 cards in China may reach one million products, or US$ 12 billion in value, this year. &nbsp,

Cailianpress.com, a Shanghai-based economic news site, said the first shipment of H20 arrived in China in May and June while big Chinese tech firms are then testing them. &nbsp,

The website said Nvidia’s Compute Unified Device Architecture ( CUDA ) platform, which can expand the capabilities of graphic processing unit ( GPU) acceleration, is so powerful that many Chinese users cannot resist.

Li Yali, a journalist of Guancha.cn, on Monday published an article with the name” Will Nvidia’s H20 get banned from being shipped to China”?

She says in the article that the H20 has an advantage in AI training and reasoning as its high-band-width ( HBM ) capacity is higher than that of the H100 and China-made AI chips. &nbsp,

She claims that for China or the US, banning the import of H20 to China is insufficient.

Stress from US politicians

A bipartisan bill introduced by US lawmakers on May 9 called Enhancing National Frameworks for Overseas Critical Export Act, which aims to ease the Biden administration’s decision to impose trade controls on AI designs. According to them, the costs can lessen the chance that US tech is passed into the bad hands. &nbsp,

The House Foreign Affairs Committee largely voted to send the bill to the House of Representatives on May 22. &nbsp,

Lin Jian, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry, stated on May 10 that if trade and technology are linked to politics and ideologies, turning them into tools, or even calling for the breakup and severing of supply chains, China’s and US’s ordinary trade and shared investment will simply suffer. &nbsp,

Read: China uses Nvidia cards via Azure, Google sky

Observe Jeff Pao on X at&nbsp, @jeffpao3

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How powerful are the world’s remaining royals? – Asia Times

On July 6, 2024, newly elected British Prime Minister Keir Starmer reaffirmed his commitment to British King Charles III, continuing a history that dates back a long time.

Since the demise of Queen Elizabeth II in 2022, the monarchy’s political control has become more royal and even more vulnerable because of Prime Minister David Lloyd George’s leadership in World War I.

This pattern is not exclusive to the UK, in recent decades, the role of nobility in politics has declined significantly worldwide. European colonial power began to destroy their power abroad as social ideals began to challenge royal expert in Europe.

Many European monarchies fell into dissolution as a result of World War I, and World War II increased their statistics. Following this, the Soviet Union and the US divided Europe along ideological outlines and sought to establish their democratic and liberal democratic principles elsewhere, while the remaining rulers were facing growing inequality.

Currently, fewer than 30 aristocratic families are politically active on a federal level. Some, like Japan’s and the UK’s, trace their bloodlines up more than a decade, while Belgium’s is less than 200 years older. Some have adapted, while others have maintained their powerful political influence while reducing their political influence. Their numerous methods and conditions make it difficult to determine where royals does withstand, collapse, or return.

Alongside the UK, the princes of Belgium, Spain, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands have all seen their forces become mostly symbolic. Smaller European aristocratic says like Andorra and the Vatican City are no inheritance, while Luxembourg, Monaco, and Liechtenstein are—though only the latter two still wield substantial strength.

Efforts to practice the remaining royal political strength have frequently highlighted its growing reliability. Due to his refusal to sign an pregnancy act in 1990, Belgian King Baudouin was declared unfit to rule before being reinstated once it was approved.

Henri, the Grand Duke of Luxembourg, lost his legislative authority in 2008 after he refrained from signing a bill preventing death. Following increasing scrutiny of Queen Beatrix’s effect, the Dutch king’s role in forming coalition governments was transferred to legislature in 2012, and she also lost the ability to dissolve congress.

The English king’s decline in social influence is also obvious, but it can also prove beneficial. Due to their world popularity, aristocratic visits can aid in the signing of important agreements, especially in nations with other royal families. Additionally, the rulers of 14 different nations appoint King Charles III as their head of state.

Also, the monarchy can be used to bypass particular political processes. The American government advised Queen Elizabeth II to deny her consent in 1999, preventing political discussion of the Military Action Against Iraq Bill, which would have restricted the ability to carry out military operations without political acceptance.

Royal efforts to maintain sweet energy and keep a positive reputation have also been essential for their success. The royal family of Belgium is seen as a important source of political unification and security.

Past Spanish King Juan Carlos participated significantly in the government’s transition to democracy in the 1970s. Politically conservative political guardians with relevant traits who work in advocacy and humanitarian causes frequently receive higher approval ratings from European royal families than politicians.

Recent years have imperial families decreased in order to have more choice and lower costs. In 2019, Sweden’s prince removed royal titles, jobs, and some protections from five of his children. Similar changes were made by the Danish monarch in 2022. Norway’s royal household then consists only of the King, Queen, Crown Prince, and Princess, while the British royal family has hinted at more reducing its latest range of 10 “working princes”.

Despite these attempts, aristocratic families in Europe continue to face scandals and intense attention from the media and the public. Hispanic and European officials began an investigation into former Spanish King Juan Carlos in 2020 after he reportedly received US$ 100 million from a bargain with Saudi Arabia. In 2023, Belgium’s Prince Laurent was accused of fraud and bribery by Libya’s sovereign wealth fund.

The current treatment of Megan Markle by the UK royal family and Prince Harry’s and Prince Andrew’s connection with Jeffrey Epstein have also shook the country. Record-low support since Queen Elizabeth II’s death in 2022 amplifies the British monarchy’s extraordinary challenges. The King’s and Princess Kate’s tumor treatments have also added to the feeling of weakness.

Across Europe, social swings, concern over royal costs, and increasing political indifference have threatened its royal people. Activities like the Alliance of German Republican Actions, created in 2010 to abolish kings immediately, reflect the increasing disrespect for royal authority.

The impenetrable nature of imperial finances, nevertheless, has granted some respite. Actually, Grand Duke Henri of Luxembourg’s$ 4 billion makes him Europe’s richest king. But, suspicions abound regarding billion more in resources like trusts, apparel, and art selections that point to larger degrees of success.

Intensive efforts go into hiding these riches. Liechtenstein’s imperial family operates a lender criticized by the US Senate for aiding users in tax avoidance, dodging debts, and other misbehavior. Queen Elizabeth II once used her Queen’s Consent to alter a draft law, concealing her wealth while the Panama Papers leaks exposed sizable undisclosed royal assets in Europe.

Europe’s poorest royal family in Belgium saw King Phillippe declare the monarchy’s wealth at roughly £11 million in 2013, but the European Union Times estimated it at £684 million.

Estimates for King Charles’s worth range from$ 750 million to more than$ 2 billion, while the fortunes of the entire British royal family, also known as” the Firm”, can range from$ 28 billion to almost$ 90 billion. Additionally, more institutionalized ties to national wealth are held by the British monarchs than by other European monarchs.

Through the peerage system that upholds British nobility, a network of support from wealthy Dukes, Marquesses, Earls, Viscounts, and Barons helps the monarchy remain firmly entrenched in the UK’s wealth centers.

Royal families in the Asia-Pacific consist of Thailand, Malaysia, Cambodia, Brunei, Japan, and Tonga. Thailand’s king is the world’s richest, with a net worth of$ 43 billion, but faces his own controversies relating to personal scandals and the use of political powers that have led to an anti-monarchy movement.

Nine sultans who rule their own states and serve as heads of state in Malaysia are a rotational system that takes place every five years. The sultans have limited formal authority, but they do have influence in cultural and religious matters. They also occasionally intervene in politics despite constitutional amendments restricting their authority. In Cambodia, the monarchy is similarly politically and culturally influential.

Brunei’s absolute monarchy has granted its Sultan, Hassanal Bolkiah, supreme authority over his country for more than 50 years. His$ 288 billion fortune makes him the second-richest monarch in the world. However, as a microstate, Brunei’s influence in international affairs is limited.

Japan’s monarchy’s diminished power since 1945 has since resembled European monarchies the most, despite the fact that its powers have remained constant since then. In sub-Saharan Africa, partnerships with British colonial authorities have allowed Lesotho’s monarchy to retain largely ceremonial influence, while Eswatini’s King Mswati III exerts strong control over the country.

Nonetheless, alongside Europe, most regions have seen general declines in royal power over decades. The Middle East, where monarchies once had swayed hands under the Ottoman Empire, is bucking that trend. Its collapse after World War I allowed them to increase their power considerably, even those under loose French and British protectorates.

Particularly the Gulf monarchies were successful by utilizing their increasingly valuable resource reserves. Today, absolute monarchies exist in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates ( UAE), Bahrain, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait with complete control over media, government branches, and law enforcement.

They are supported by religious organizations that reinforce their status as the preservers of cultural traditions, and no opposition is tolerated. Despite their heavy-handed behavior, they largely enjoy strong support, even among young people. The Saudi Crown Prince has long been a favorite among younger Saudis in particular.

As in Europe, Middle Eastern royal wealth is often hidden and difficult to discern. Between$ 100 billion and$ 1.1.4 trillion, the Saudi royal family’s combined wealth is estimated. According to other estimates, Abu Dhabi’s Al Nahyan family, which owns more than$ 300 billion in assets, is the richest royal family in the world. Qatar and Kuwait’s royal families have fortunes that range from hundreds to billions.

The other Middle Eastern royal families in Oman, Jordan, and Morocco, have less influence, but still more so than in Europe, and have also withstood democratization pressures by promoting stability. The monarchies and their political systems remained in place during the Arab Spring as other Middle Eastern states went through revolutions and civil wars.

However, the downfall of royal families in Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, North Yemen, Libya, and Iran during the 20th century shows the risks of instability. Today, this often comes from within the royal families themselves. Saudi royal disputes frequently occur in public, including a widespread purge in 2017.

Jordan’s crown prince was placed under house arrest in 2023 for an attempted coup, but he later emerged and pledged his allegiance to the king days later. The 2017–21 Qatar-Saudi Crisis meanwhile saw Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt sever diplomatic relations and blockade Qatar following accusations of supporting terrorism and supporting Iran.

While some of their positions may be difficult, royal families still show some decency in their relationships. The historical unions between European royals indicate that the current ruling royals in Europe are all related, much like some Middle Eastern monarchies. Following controversy over corruption allegations, Spain’s Juan Carlos meanwhile lived in exile in the UAE for two years.

Royals have also taken more active roles to help one another. In World War I, the British royal family significantly assisted the Arab monarchs in supporting the Ottoman Empire. In 1962, the British monarchy, which was in close contact with the Brunei monarchy, helped lobby for the country’s independence and halted an armed rebellion, keeping British influence in Southeast Asia.

Other royal families may still be able to retake the throne. More than 20 royal families remain without a country to reign over, with Spain’s monarchy being restored in 1975 and Cambodia’s in 1993 the latest to be reintegrated into politics.

An estimated one million people gathered in Romania to welcome the former King Michael, who had abdicated in 1947. The daughter of former King Michael, Margareta of Romania, now lives in Elisabeta Palace in Bucharest, and other family members have taken a growing role in politics.

Bulgaria’s former Tsar, Simeon II, lived in Spain after being overthrown in 1946 and returned to Bulgaria after the communist government crumbled, serving as prime minister from 2001 to 2005.

Albania’s Prince Leka, grandson of former King Zog I, attempted to reinstate the monarchy in a 1997 referendum but failed. Family members of the ex-Italian King Umberto II filed a lawsuit in 2007 for damages for their exile and the return of assets, but the Italian government objected.

The case of the Italian royal family demonstrates how disputes between exiled royals can have political connotations. Greece’s royal family now lives in London, frequently appearing at royal functions. Meanwhile, members of Iran’s former royal family, as well as descendants of Ethiopia’s and Russia’s, live in the US.

Although there is no current strategy or desire to re-establish a political movement to replace them, diaspora communities ‘ support for royalty can still aid host governments in exerting influence through them.

Monarchies have largely relinquished political power in the contemporary liberal world order after surviving fascism and communism. Yet, as symbols of state continuity, some monarchs have maintained their relevance by providing long-term stability.

While incompatible with communism, royalty’s adaptability to democratic and fascist regimes highlights their resilience. Their ability to reinvent themselves and demonstrate how useful they are to contemporary politics may ensure their survival, despite the fact that their declining popularity suggests this will continue to be challenging.

John P Ruehl is an Australian-American journalist living in Washington, DC, and a world affairs correspondent for the Independent Media Institute. He contributes to several other foreign affairs publications as well as contributing to Strategic Policy. His book,” Budget Superpower: How Russia Challenges the West With an Economy Smaller Than Texas”, was published in December 2022.

This article first appeared on Independent Media Institute, and it has since been republished with kind permission.

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A neoclassical solution for China – Asia Times

China’s just completed Party Plenum drew inspiration from old philosophers to its development drive. It’s a strong and ambitious decision that could alter both the nation and the world. Did it work?

Next week, the 2024 Party Plenum issued its judgments concentrating on the market. In a nutshell, the strategy was to consolidate the domestic market, greater protect property rights, improve the governmental system and define responsibilities between central and local governments.

Then, it called on Chinese Communist Party (CCP ) members to implement decisions proactively and creatively. The Party bet that these adjustments will help strengthen the market’s sagging performance. In fact, there is much room for improvement, and perhaps a small improvement might grant China’s enormous successful potential some breathing space.

However, the Third Plenum was not just about the market. A few hours sooner, it issued a far more modern communiqué. China is thinking big; the Communist Party is urging a large corporate travel.

Bureaucracy and the free business pushed development in the West in the 17th-18th generations, changing whatever forever. With the aid of a huge bureaucratized position, the Qin state helped to unify the Chinese world under the name” All Under God” in the third century BC.

Is China now control that situation, and you a bureaucratic Chinese state win the show today?

Perhaps one should not underestimate the CPC’s plan to change China’s political and social structure given the success of the Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ) as evidence that Beijing can think and act big.

What then are different nations capable of? In the ancient civilization for bureaucratization, first big countries gobbled up little nations, and then the Qin condition vanquished all the surviving big states.

Great move again

Here are some more facts from the communiqué. Officials declared that the 20th Congress ‘ Third Plenum would be the most crucial.

It was supposed to understand the Second Plenum of the 11th Party Congress, which was held in December 1978, when Deng Xiaoping announced measures and resurrected China. The 2024 communiqué suggests that task may de facto override or roll in a novel way after the last 46 years.

In 1978, China was in tatters, shattered and full of people who did n’t trust the Party. Some were victims of the Cultural Revolution. They frequently faced harassment, including being held in prison or interning in concentration camps. Those people no longer possessed a lot of faith in the Party.

The Party was challenged to start up to European market democracy, and so it did. In the 1980s, a burst of consultants and counselors came from Ronald Reagan’s America and Margaret Thatcher’s Britain to suggest China on changes. Democracy seemed to be the answer, which properly combined with the Party’s then-extreme failure.

Now, things are very different. The Party’s achievement have helped it become stronger and more comfortable over the years. Now, the Party and its architecture play an important role. Therefore, it seems only natural that the best course of action is to develop this successful structure.

The communiqué announced intentions 1.) to bolster the Party’s organization, 2 ) to improve the laws and norms regulating Party life, and 3 ) to stress the obligation for Party and non-Party members to study relevant documents. A highly effective and politically stable system is the aim.

It is not a novel dish. From the close of the Qing dynasty in 1911 to the present, China appears to want to return to find fresh motivation in its roots after more than a century of American cultural influence.

The State of Qin eventually united due to the state’s architectural increasing that started in the 7th-6th centuries BC.

It was achieved, scholars tell us, precisely because of the combination of a governmental machine able to manage money, property, materials and human resources with increasing productivity. Currently, China seems set on a similar record.

The two great inspirers of this procedure were the scholar Mozi, who initially theorized the administrative state in the 4th century, and Hanfeizi, who inspired the second king, Qin Shi Huangdi.

Hanfeizi emphasized the need for laws and regulations to govern the position. These two elements are present in tomorrow’s CPC communiqué, plus an importance on the value of research, which seems to mention the Confucian history.

It is a “neoclassical” task that is very different from what happens in the rest of the world. We must see how it develops because its shapes are not accurate.

In the 17th and 18th generations, contemporary American states were born as a result of the influence of the Chinese government. These concepts served as the inspiration for initiatives to establish a method of legal servants in France, England, and later throughout Europe and the world. By removing the influence of the previous aristocracy, the administration aided in the expansion of the market.

The CPC communiqué goes beyond that. It desires a condition that is overly bureaucratic and uses rules and requires everyone to study and learn. It differs from the old Communist Party and the ancient authoritarian regimes, which both had one leader and left-wingers.

Rather, it is a strength of practices that is supposed to operate in accordance with the laws and practices of those who learn to abide by them. Below, the role of the market is crucial but vague. The market served as a transmission channel in the ancient Chinese administrative state, but it had a different key role than it does in capitalism.

The Chinese have a history of knowledge of the administrative state, but they have no knowledge of democracy or the free market, which is not in their ethnic DNA.

Therefore, applying in a administrative state is simpler. But, it does not rule out politics, although in the past when mentioned it was very different than in the West.

Due to excessive bureaucracy and power, the condition itself burst in the Qin condition with the first king.

Because we are only just beginning this project, we are still far from considering an explosion immediately. Additionally, the government in the past did not have access to all the modern engineering.

Today, hundreds of control and communication equipment make everything much more productive. There are almost 100 million Party people, one Party part on common for every ten persons, excluding children. It’s a massive machinery, which could be very effective or extremely difficult to manage.

Party of government

President Xi Jinping’s goal is to promote consistency among all employees through this administrative body. In some ways, it gives China a chance to prepare for future sieges as well as facing a possible weaker world. If China is strengthened privately, it can either much withstand external assaults or advance with much more force.

It can work both competitively and excessively, as the administrative state of the 3rd-4th era BC did. It will take a long time to complete, so get ready. Just ten years after their standard launch, the 1978 reforms officially began to transform the Chinese economy.

Mozi and Hanfeizi addressed a major issue in the third century BC, but how do you encourage the bureaucrats? People needed the” two levers,” according to them: selfishness and resentment over abuse, as well as the possibility of being compensated and fear of retribution. How Chinese officials will adopt this is unsure.

Deng’s measures worked because they turned all Chinese officials into companies, i. electronic. companies for their own offices, areas, towns and cities, developing businesses and taking bribes in the process.

Due to excessive corruption, the system collapsed, killing the real business. Xi’s anti-corruption campaign intended to end it, and it effectively succeeded. But so far, the businesses and authorities are not motivated, and there are no new industry rules.

Some Chinese experts believe that these should begin with full legal protection of property rights, which would de facto limit Party powers. Here lies the contradiction: to boost the Party’s power, the Party may defend property rights, which may impede Party powers.

In capitalist nations, the contradiction is addressed by acknowledging a division of powers. It’s not clear whether China’s Party is willing to go that far.

Moreover, bureaucrats now fear that if they make decisions, they can make mistakes, so they do n’t decide. What kind of reward will be offered to bureaucrats who lost so much money and power in the anti-corruption drive?

In any case, no other country has equally ambitious projects, which may give China an edge.

This article was originally published on Appia Institute and is now republished with kind permission. Read the original here. &nbsp,

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US says it wants a Palestinian state – its actions say otherwise – Asia Times

In May 2024, Spain, Ireland, and Norway recognized a Arab state, bringing the total number of nations that do so to 144. The United States is certainly a part of them.

Since the Clinton administration in the 1990s, the US has consistently favored a two-state option, meaning that both Israel and a Palestinian condition may be recognized as standard nations. President Joe Biden reiterated that position at his July 11, 2024, news conference following the NATO summit, when he said,” There’s no ultimate answer other than a two-state solution”.

The United States has continuously prevented the Palestinian territories from being fully recognized as a nation, at least in terms of symbolism, by preventing them from becoming the 194th part condition of the UN.

Palestine is a continuous watcher at the UN, and the Palestinian Authority is there to represent it. Palestine can enter most meetings because it is a continuous observer, but it is unable to cast a vote on any recommendations or international agreements.

I am a former US minister and a professor of global affairs. Understanding this dilemma calls for a little story.

An older man with white hair and glasses wears a dark suit and speaks into a microphone while seated, with a placard that says 'State of Palestine' in front of him.
Riyad Mansour, the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations, speaks during a Security Council meeting for a cease-fire voting in March 2024. Photo: John Lamparski / Getty Images via The Talk

In the beginning

When the state of Israel was created in 1948, it was soon attacked by its Arab neighbors Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, which refused to recognize its right to exist, but did little to create a Palestinian state. The area has been plagued by succeeding wars and less hostilities ever since.

Over the years, the US has provided substantial assistance to Israel, in terms of politicians, wealth and military assistance. The US has tried to move the leaders of Israel, Palestine, and the Arab countries toward a time when they could all coexist peacefully at the same time.

Israeli officials and other figures have argued that the discussion of Arab statehood favors Hamas because of the recent conflict in Gaza, which has prompted Israeli politicians and others to claim. However, the conflict will eventually stop and the root of the issue may remain unresolved. And, I believe that unless it is resolved, the end of the war will only be transitory.

The leaders of other nations that help in their negotiations would then have to address a lot of issues, including those from Palestine and Israel. The edges of a Palestinian position, the right of some Palestinians to reclaim the property they were forced to flee in 1948, and the position of Jerusalem, which both Palestinians and Israelis demand may get their money, would be the three most crucial factors.

The US has much embraced a two-state answer, despite making efforts to promote peace-progress without dictating the result. Erstwhile president Donald Trump, for example, said in 2018 that,” I like a two-state option. That’s what I think works best … That’s my feeling”. Another presidents, like George W Bush and Barack Obama, have even tried to push the parties toward conversations.

However, the US has repeatedly blocked UN efforts to change Palestine’s position from spectator to complete member state despite the American government’s stated goal for peace to include the establishment of a Palestinian state in concept.

A Palestinian condition would have its status recognized as a nation in the eyes of the international community, which may give it more credibility than just a symbolic change.

The US blocked that from happening as late as April 2024, when it vetoed a “resolution on Arab independence” in the Security Council, which had review new UN people.

The US is one of the five permanent members that make up the Security Council, alongside France, the United Kingdom, China and Russia. In contrast to the 10 different rotating committee members who are limited to voting, these nations each have the right to veto any statement or declaration the government attempts to make.

What would the condition of be like?

Successful intervention is necessary to achieve peace because it will be challenging to reach deal on the boundaries of a Palestinian state and other problems. The US has mostly forfeited any part in that process, but, by its isolated and uneven position.

In May 2024, a White House spokesman stated that the US believes that sovereignty should occur” through strong negotiations between the parties” rather than “unilateral recognition.”

There are two problems with that logic. Second, 144 countries at the UN have now recognized a Palestinian status as a nation, making recognition almost punitive. And in 1948, Israel was created by the UN.

Next, Israel currently has the most extraordinary, right-wing authorities in its history. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it abundantly clear that he opposes any position in Palestine. His coalition may soon crumble if he were to consent to even discussing the possibility of one, and he would be forced out of business.

Netanyahu for ages advocated for other nations to give hundreds of millions of dollars to Hamas, knowing that the group did not deal in order to avoid being pressured to discuss independence. He did it to stifle the Palestinian Authority, which is in charge of the West Bank and is talking.

A black, white, green and red flag is seen in front of the U.S. Capitol building
In front of the U.S. Capitol building in October 2023, a pro-Palestinian rebel waved a Arab symbol. Photo: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images via The Talk

The origins of contradiction

The US has finally refused to allow a small move forward in the direction of a two-state solution, which it claims is the only way to a long-lasting peace, even before the existing Gaza war. And why does the US continue to cooperate with an Israeli authorities that will never permit that to occur?

The reason is simple – local elections.

While 89 % of Jewish Americans said in April 2024 that they support Israel’s reasons for fighting Hamas, the Gaza war has prompted some rifts in the Jewish-American community.

National Jews have long been fervent supporters of the Democratic Party, and their support for Israel continues to be crucial. Believing that help may rise, but, centuries ago Israel began to reach out to evangelical Christians. They are unwavering supporters of the Republican Party’s core. Many of them have converted to the religion by denying affiliation to Israel.

Democrats and some Democrats are currently battling it out to determine who is a better friend of Israel. The House of Representatives rapidly passed legislation that would allow anyone who assists the ICC prosecutes Israelis in an unusually bipartisan effort in May 2024 when the International Criminal Court’s prosecutor requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu, another Israeli leader, and Hamas leaders.

President Bill Clinton did n’t support a two-state solution until his final weeks in office to prevent that sort of political squab.

You may wonder why this matters given the political challenges of the ongoing conflict. A Palestinian position joining the UN as a member state did not recognize it as a nation. Before reaching an agreement, Israelis and Palestinians would have to approach one.

However, those who dream of having their personality recognized and their need to eventually establish a nation of their own may have a glimmer of hope given this UN status.

There is no possibility that a major policy change will occur while the US is preparing for a national election campaign. However, more people on both sides would need to consider things differently if peace is ever to be achieved, and I think that bringing a Arab state into existence at least on paper would do so more than anything else the US could accomplish.

Dennis Jett is Professor of International Affairs, Penn State

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original post.

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GOP attacks on Harris to go from bad to worse – Asia Times

Although Republican attacks on her are only now starting to escalate, Kamala Harris, the US vice chairman, performs significantly better than Joe Biden did against Donald Trump, according to surveys.

Perhaps as a candidate for vice chairman, Harris was the goal of an intense storm of conventional attacks that claimed, among other things, that she slept her approach to social prominence, a typical slur against women in power.

The Wilson Center, a democratic think tank, described in a report as a general pattern of sexist and gendered attacks on popular women in public discourse.

More recently, those opinions were joined by conventional attacks branding Harris as the “border czar”, part of an effort to connect her to immigration, a hot-button matter for liberals.

Just a small number of the severe attacks that have already occurred are expected. Trump has a strong sense of both social self-defense and character death. Once they enter the national strategy field, they have an extraordinary ability to defeat his political adversaries.

Harris even has strong persuasive abilities, which could make this a contentious election debate.

Trump’s other information

In my guide,” National Communication and Character,” I discuss how adeptly Trump is at converting white working-class rage into political support for himself and convincing his followers to overlook the former mayor’s personal well-remembered professional and personal failings.

Trump’s personality generates enduring disdain among progressives, but those voters will back the Democratic nomination.

In 2016, Trump defeated Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton. Sens. He also lost to a number of well-known Republican presidential candidates in the main, including Sen. Previous administrators Jeb Bush of Florida, John Kasich of Ohio, and Scott Walker of Wisconsin are Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio of Florida.

Earlier in 2024, Trump quickly dispatched another round of very experienced Republicans, most importantly Florida Gov. Past South Carolina governor Ron DeSantis Nikki Haley.

Like those other competitors, President Biden has much endured Trump’s private problems. But in 2020, Trump’s classic name of” Weary Joe” failed to become as successful as his accusations aimed at different officials, and Biden’s election marked Trump’s even electoral defeat.

As the 2024 election approached, Trump and conservative voices once again demonstrated their immense influence in shaping political narratives. They have persuaded a large number of voters this year to absolve Trump of his role in the Covid-19 pandemic, ignore how he planned a Supreme Court majority to overturn Roe v. Wade, and declare that the 2020 election was a fraud.

Polls reveal that many voters follow Trump’s lead and fault Biden for the US economic conditions, which are actually quite good, in an even more powerful demonstration of his political marketing abilities.

Unemployment is low. Job growth is booming. Infrastructure projects are underway. Since the recent highs in the stock market, inflation is much lower than it was during Biden’s tenure, and individual retirement accounts are now free.

Given Trump’s public relations prowess and the widespread susceptibility of his false narratives, one can wonder how the Biden campaign managed to survive the never-ending rhetorical assault and maintain the contest as close as surveys suggest it had been up until recently.

During a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on July 20, 2024, Trump attacked both Biden and Harris, repeatedly calling Biden” stupid” and insulting his IQ. But Harris, Trump said, was” crazy”.

” I call her laughing Kamala”, Trump told the crowd. ” You can tell a lot by a laugh. She’s crazy. She’s nuts”.

A former prosecutor for a felon who was found guilty

Political developments suggest that Trump may be in for a taste of his own medicine now that Biden has left the race.

Harris ‘ prior work as a US senator challenging the nominees for the presidency and the former president’s judicial posts demonstrates her ability to hold Republicans accountable in her capacity as one of the most effective Democratic officeholders.

She uses law-and-order themes to protest against America’s first convicted felon former president through her career as an attorney general and prosecutor.

Given that the focus on age is now booming against Republicans, Biden’s departure may offer Harris another significant opportunity to rewrite the character assassination narrative.

A key point that Trump used against Biden is likely to be turned back toward the former president now that he is the oldest major-party nominee for president.

For voters, it promises to be a scorched-earth campaign season.

Stephen J Farnsworth, Professor of Political Science and Director, Center for Leadership and Media Studies, University of Mary Washington

The Conversation has republished this article under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Marcos Jr sets tone for epic clash with the Dutertes – Asia Times

MANILA – Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr kickstarted his third, and arguably most consequential, State of the Nation Address ( SONA ) this week with a clear sense of urgency.

The Filipino chief has suffered declining approval ratings as a result of continuing to receive bulk support in authentic surveys, despite the country posting the fastest growth rate in the area last month. This is because of perceived frailty in handling monetary issues.

According to Pulse Asia’s third fourth study, the Marcos Jr management had a net bad 71 % approval rating in handling prices, which has consistently topped the “most serious” list of voter concerns.

Only 5 % of respondents were in favor of his handling of the country’s struggling prices for the past two decades. Even though general prices are in one digits and well below disturbed emerging markets like Argentina and Turkey, the majority of Filipinos who reside near the poverty line are affected by even slight price increases in basic goods.

In particular, charges of staple items like grain have picked up in recent years. This has had a particularly negative impact on Marcos Jr., who had vowed to reduce the cost of basic food staples and start a new period of financial prosperity.

A gram of rice is almost three times the average market value as of the date of his promise to increase in 2022. &nbsp, If anything, the Marcos Jr administration has also performed poorly on other top voter concerns, including poverty alleviation ( net -34 % ), wage increases ( net -15 % ) and hunger alleviation ( net -9 % ), although he scored a barely positive ( net 2 percent ) on job creation amid rapid gross domestic product ( GDP ) growth rates in recent years.

Just as concerning, nevertheless, is Marcos Jr’s declining respect ranking, which reached a low of 52 % – well below historical trends, especially under former president for as Rodrigo Duterte and Benigno Aquino, who had enjoyed super-majority support at this stage in their stints. &nbsp,

In fact, the president ranked below both Senate President Francis Escudero ( 69 % ) and, crucially, Vice President Sara Duterte ( 71 % ), who boycotted this year’s SONA following her resignation from Marcos Jr’s cabinet.

Rodrigo Duterte, president of the Philippines, and Sara, his child, attend the 2018 Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference in Hainan, China. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Getty Images

If anything, Duterte has positioned herself as the de facto leader of the major opposition at next week’s midterm elections. Before his political battle with his former allies, the Dutertes, Marcos Jr wasted no time to unite the nation’s elite and form a fresh coalition.

In his annual address to the joint government, Marcos Jr. set his priorities for his second year in office, stating that” the painful lesson of this last year has made very clear that whatever existing information happily proclaiming our country as one of the best-performing in Asia, means nothing to a Filipino.”

We were forced to temporarily implement mandated price caps on rice because of compelling emergency circumstances like illegal price manipulation by hoarders and smuggling, he continued, highlighting the impact of external factors on the high prices of basic goods.

To reassure voters, he claimed that his government has seized 2.7 billion pesos ( US$ 46.2 million ) worth of smuggled agriculture and fishery products, which would be redistributed to the poorest communities.

Marcos Jr., the former acting agriculture secretary, added that his administration will construct 1,200 kilometers of farm-to-market roads by the end of the year to lower transportation costs and lower overall costs of good commodities.

He added that his government would irrigate about 45, 000 hectares of new agricultural land this year while restoring irrigation to almost 39, 000 hectares of land in an effort to increase agricultural productivity. &nbsp,

The president also brought up climate change and the negative effects of a prolonged, more severe El Nio drought this year, which had a negative impact on domestic agricultural production.

It’s unlikely to attract back support from ensnared voters at the lower socio-economic levels unless the Marcos Jr administration significantly increases the supply of subprimed rice. The nation is also paying the price for domestic production underinvestment, which results in an excessive dependence on imported food commodities.

Marcos Jr. also acknowledged structural barriers to economic security and the decline in foreign direct investment, which was down by almost a third in April on a year-on-year basis. Accordingly, he promised to review existing laws, which disastrously privatized critical sectors such as power and electricity production.

The EPIRA [ Electric Power Industry Reform Act ] is being reviewed and thoroughly examined to determine whether it is still appropriate for our current circumstances or whether it needs to be amended. In reference to the 2001 law that gave private suppliers the authority to effectively dictate power rates in the country, which are among the highest in the Asia-Pacific region, I am asking Congress to work together on this for the sake of the Filipino people,” Marcos Jr. stated.

In the upcoming months, Marcos vowed to raise the matter among the 28 priority measures that the Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council ( LEDA ) will identify as priorities. Given the Filipino president’s personal ties to and reliance on the advice of the country’s oligarchs, however, many doubt that he will enact any dramatic reforms to critical infrastructure.

He might also advocate for competitive electricity and power rates in special economic zones to entice more manufacturing investments, which are essential for the Philippines ‘ long-term development and more inclusive growth.

Meanwhile, Marcos Jr also tried to distinguish himself from the draconian and authoritarian policies of his immediate predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte.

” Extermination was never one of them,” he said, referring to his own less-lethal anti-drug campaign”. The conviction rate for drugs is at a high of 79 %. We applaud the report that, together with this, our country’s barangay population has decreased by 32 %, Marcos continued. &nbsp,

According to the Filipino president, his government conducted 71, 000 anti-drug operations, which have led to the arrest of almost 100, 000 drug personalities as well as the seizure of close to$ 800 million ( 44 billion pesos ) worth of illegal drugs. Human rights groups, however, have claimed that extrajudicial killings remain a serious concern.

As many as 360 deaths were recorded in anti-illegal drug operations between June 30 and July 1 this year, according to the Philippine National Police ( PNP ), the Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency ( PDEA ), and the Armed Forces of the Philippines ( AFP). &nbsp,

Activists hold a protest in front of Camp Crame, the headquarters of the Philippine National Police (PNP), carrying mock dead bodies, condemning the government's War on Drugs and holding placards showing the picture of the late South Korean businessman Jee Ick-Joo, who was murdered allegedly by suspected policemen in Manila on January 27, 2017.The South Korean businessman was allegedly kidnapped by Philippine policemen under the guise of a raid on illegal drugs and murdered at the national police headquarters in Manila, authorities said on January 18. / AFP PHOTO / NOEL CELIS
Activists hold a protest in front of Camp Crame, the headquarters of the Philippine National Police ( PNP ), carrying mock dead bodies, condemning the Duterte government’s war on drugs in Manila on January 27, 2017. Morocs Jr. has argued that his method is less lethal. Photo: Asia Times Files / AFP / Noel Celis

The measure of success should not only be the absence of violence but how many have been held accountable, said Carlos Conde, a top human rights expert, to the media. &nbsp,

In another major departure from his predecessor, Marcos Jr announced an immediate ban on Chinese-run online casinos, or so-called Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators ( POGOs ), a key and controversial legacy of the Duterte presidency.

” Effective today, all POGOs are banned,’ ‘ Marcos Jr declared, emphasizing growing concerns over” financial scamming, money laundering, prostitution, human trafficking, kidnapping, brutal torture, even murder, grave abuse and disrespect to our system of laws must stop.”

” I hereby instruct Pagcor]Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation ] to wind down and cease the operations of POGOs by the end of the year,” he said.

Marcos Jr. reassured that” the DOLE ( Department of Labor and Employment ) shall use the time between now and then to find new jobs for our countrymen who will be displaced” in order to prevent any economic disruptions.

The business community has welcomed the decision with open arms, particularly the renowned Makati Business Club, Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines, and the Management Association of the Philippines, among others. Both have highlighted the negative effects of Chinese online casinos, which are notorious for tax evasion, organized crime, and a meager contribution of only 0.1 % of the GDP of the Philippines.

According to Philippine authorities, 55 % of 31 cases of kidnapping in 2022 were POGO-related, underscoring the grave threat posed by online casinos, which enjoyed a heyday under the Duterte presidency. In perhaps his most consequential and popular departure from Duterte’s policies, Marcos centered on the South China Sea disputes.

” The Philippines cannot yield. In his proudest accomplishment of his year, he declared,” The Philippines cannot waver.” ” We continuously try to find ways to de-escalate tensions in the contested areas without counterparts, without compromising our position and principles”, he added, emphasizing the need for both a firm stance and proactive diplomacy.

In many ways, his third SONA set the tone for his coalition’s impending clash with the Dutertes at next year’s midterm elections, which will serve as a de facto referendum on the two clashing political dynasties.

Follow Richard Javad Heydarian on X at @Richeydarian

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