As Trump goes full Indian socialist, countries need to coordinate – Asia Times

Your technique has been revealed, Italy. You have been “looting, pillaging, and plundering” your transatlantic alliance for generations, all for your own gain. Not thinking that America leads the world on almost every aspect except justice while your business has scarcely grown for 20 years. You deserve to be punished in Donald Trump’s story economics.

How should all Europeans then respond to the alleged economic war declaration made by our ally and, equally important, to the very personal decision by the world’s largest economy to adopt an economic strategy that was last used by India’s post-colonial communist government in the 1950s in a large nation.

The concept is to replace local production for imports by imposing high trade barriers, as in communist India. This concept remained impoverished for four years in India.

It will now make Americans poorer and raise the cost of producing both domestically and abroad, easing the competitive pressures that had originally caused the US to be so active.

The difference between 1950s India and America is that the size and importance of the US economy mean that the rest of the world may also experience significant changes.

Giorgia Meloni told the&nbsp, Financial Times&nbsp, on March 28th that it was” childish” and” superficial” to think that Italy might have to choose between the United States and Europe. This was the first interview she gave to a foreign publication since entering Palazzo Chigi two and a half years ago.

Trump may have to reevaluate her own strategy now that she has acted in a wildly childish and superficial way by imposing his 20 % tax on US imports of European and other European products.

Trump’s tax statement included many islands inhabited only by penguins, and there was much that was immoral about it. He claimed to have consulted a prominent businessman, Lee Iacocca, the former CEO of Chrysler, the company that is now a part of Stellantis, about his plans, but as Iacocca passed away in 2019, that discussion had had taken place sometime ago.

However, we shouldn’t let these oddities detract from his actions. Trump has demonstrated that America can no longer get trusted as an alliance or companion, not to mention the direct financial impact of this tax strategy.

For long-standing safety allies like Japan and Europe’s NATO members, this is surprising. But it is particularly painful for poorer nations like Vietnam and others in Asia who had a proper economic and security mate that would prevent them from becoming reliant on China.

The transfer taxes he has imposed may increase trade barriers in America to their highest levels since the 1940s. Based on the bilateral balance in goods trade between the US and each country, the formula used to calculate the 20 % tariff on goods from the EU, 24 % on goods from Japan, and 46 % on goods from Vietnam is an unscientific invention. Does the fact that Italy is prospering by plundering the earth mean that it had a merchandise trade deficit of €55 billion in 2024? If so, some Italians have noticed.

However, the formula even asserts that the value added tax in the EU apparently represents an unfair business barrier. Due to the fact that VAT applies to all goods and services sold, whether they are internally produced or imported, it cannot be considered a business stumbling block, let alone an unjust one. Truth does not matter in Trump’s earth. &nbsp,

[ For Bloomberg subscribers, I strongly advise my former coworker Clive Crook ‘s excellent riposte  that if Trump and his advisers really believe that VAT will lead to unfair trade benefits, they should introduce one in the US and use the proceeds to lower income and corporate taxes, rather than tariffs. ]

Additionally, this promotion completely disregards the services industry, which accounts for a third of all trade. The fastest-growing component of global business has been the growth of digital solutions, a sector that America dominates.

Trump ought to beg Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos of Amazon, or Mark Zuckerberg of Meta to discuss how they have grown to be the richest men in the world. They might also point out that digital services are one of the most likely targets for a solid retaliatory reaction.

Not just Meloni, but many Western leaders have responded by criticizing Trump’s monetary strategy and enjoining people to avoid further aggravation by retaliation. The Wall Street tycoon Scott Bessent, the Treasury Secretary of the United States, must realize that the biggest tax increase since 1968 is an act of monetary self-harm, and that countries should deal to reduce these tariffs rather than risk putting them even higher.

This strategy has a disadvantage because it forces you to enter the negotiations in a poor position if you don’t fight. The key to the answer will be to show your power and utilize without promoting Trump’s own power by increasing his threat of 200 % tariffs on European beer, as he did last month. He is at his strongest when, like with any drunk, he can split his foes and sling worry into the weakest.

The most crucial step should be to coordinate trade and cooperation with unity within those alliances. The truly juvenile response would be for specific Western leaders to then travel to Washington to seek concessions, in Meloni’s words.

The best way to advance national interests will be to come to terms with allies first within the European Union, then between the EU and other blocs, on a common strategy.

While it’s impossible to anticipate a world in harmony, whether it’s through the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, or any other organization that previous American presidents worked so hard to create, it should be possible for the EU to work with Japan, for instance, and for Japan to work with Southeast Asian and Oceania, which it successfully incorporated into the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade bloc during Trump’s first term.

Trump has been discussing his protectionist philosophy for 40 years, even though he will never associate it with Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first post-colonial leader. No one should be surprised that he is putting this foolish philosophy into practice now that he feels powerful.

The best way to demonstrate that he is not as powerful as he thinks he is is is to criticize US goods and services while maintaining open markets for each other’s goods and services.

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Beijing kills hope for any US-China grand trade bargain – Asia Times

China has shied away from negotiations and is hoping for an instant resolution with Washington.

Beijing released a comprehensive package of punitive measures over the weekend that demonstrated no cause for alarm that the world’s two largest economies are on the verge of full dispersion.

Beijing” may continue to take steadfast measures to safeguard its independence, stability, and advancement interests,” according to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

No hollow danger was presented by this reminder. Beijing slapped a crushing 34 % tariff on all US goods within hours, adding 10-15 % tariffs to the already-imposed ones earlier this year. This is a resemblance to the most recent US increases.

This increase is proper rather than just economic.

China stifled exports of important rare earth products, which are essential for the world’s tech and defense sectors, and prohibited them from supplying dual-use technologies to a dozen US companies, focusing mostly in aerospace and defense.

Beijing expanded its “unreliable entities listing,” properly blacklisting 11 further American companies from operating openly in China, making things even more provocative.

The developments from this weekend should be a cool wake-up call for those still hoping for a political off-ramp. Beijing’s change is no reactive; rather, it is planned.

In the face of Beijing’s rebellion, it is doubtful that Trump administration officials will loosen their position in the face of this situation, some of whom view this time as an opportunity to intensify the economic uncoupling between the US and China. In reality, additional round of US taxes are now all but unavoidable.

The financial harm is already being calculated. The US weighted average tariff rate on Chinese goods will increase to a staggering 65 % in combination with China’s countermeasures.

That would severely depress expansion for China this year, cutting 1.5 to 2 percentage points off of exports, a house crisis, and negative pressures.

China appears willing to bear the pain despite the rising growth challenges.

Why? Given that Beijing has come to the conclusion that any deal being discussed today would only be a temporary truce, not a real peace, and that the US is determined to prevent China’s rise. It is preferable in China to withstand short-term suffering than to take a long-term corporate disadvantage.

This calculation has geological implications. The period of managed competition is really over if China, the second-largest economy in the world, is willing to sacrifice near-term wealth in favor of proper autonomy.

Global markets are going through a severe adjustment, with some also believing cooler heads may prevail.

Buyers, organizations, and policymakers must reevaluate in light of this situation. The conflict between the US and China no more revolves around who blinks second. Who you hold their breath the longest is the subject?

More taxes, tit-for-tat restrictions, and corporate decoupling are likely to establish the connection between Washington and Beijing in the upcoming weeks.

Both sides are gearing up for a protracted, bloody fight that will forever alter world commerce, finance, and politics.

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Taiwan wise to China’s many broken promises – Asia Times

Making strategic promises, which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP ) has consistently demonstrated, are later undermined or abandoned once leverage has been gained.

Beijing’s strategy has consistently prioritized political and corporate gain over long-term trustworthiness, from the dismantling of Hong Kong’s autonomy to destroyed trade and market-opening commitments made when it joined the World Trade Organization.

These are structural aspects of how the CCP handles diplomacy: agreements are convenience tools, never binding commitments. This behaviour has created distrust among allies and political organizations, especially those that have paid the price for assuming the CCP’s promises will keep.

The CCP promised Tibet independence in 1951. The Dalai Lama was forced to flee to exile within ten years, and a harsh social destruction campaign took shape. Tempels were destroyed, spoken language was abhorred, and spiritual appearance was prohibited.

Over a million Rohingya have been detained in re-education camps in Xinjiang, which was once hailed as a unit for racial harmony. Surveillance systems encircles the area, transforming daily existence into a futuristic routine.

First assurances of liberty were replaced in both cases by measures of surveillance, destruction, and forced integration.

Hong Kong is the most recent and eminently shocking deception. ” One Country, Two Systems” was guaranteed until 2047 by the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1997. However, China imposed the National Security Law by 2020, properly robbing Hong Kong of its independence.

Dissention was criminalized, opposition accents were imprisoned, and civil rights were ended. Students activists were exiled or imprisoned, and pro-democracy papers were immediately shut down.

The training is clear: Beijing’s offer of freedom is only a temporary illusion. And then, Taiwan, which is self-governing, has no reason to believe that a negotiated freedom structure would treat it differently.

Trade swindles, maritime deceits, and political feces

The CCP’s deviousness goes way beyond geographical claims. China has relied on international agreements as stepping stones to power, certainly as systems for transparency, on the international stage.

China pledged rules-based trade and market openness when it joined the World Trade Organization ( WTO ) in 2001. However, it consistently abused gaps, including forcing foreign investors to pay for technology transfers, subsidizing state-owned businesses, and engaging in intellectual property theft.

American industries that were engaged in engagement now face weakened supply chains and proper dependence. The idea that political reform would result from economic reform erred devastatingly stupid.

President Xi Jinping vowed to stop militarizing the South China Sea in 2015 when he stood in the White House’s Rose Garden. Beijing installed military installations on artificial islands within weeks, and it quickly set up weapon defenses and detector towers there.

In what were previously global waters, Chinese naval patrols continue to harass foreign vessels. These military areas are now threatening the freedom of navigation on one of the busiest trade routes in the world, causing conflicts in Southeast Asia.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI), which is touted as a means of shared prosperity, has instead trapped several developing nations in debt.

Projects are intended to improve Beijing’s financial and technological techniques, from Sri Lanka’s Hambantota interface to African digital system. What starts out as a relationship is subordinated to.

Taiwan, a target of much greater strategic significance, is only anticipate duplicity if global forces and institutions have been deceived.

Taiwan’s Strategic Weight

Taiwan actively envisions a potential built on freedom, resilience, and innovation rather than just resisting Chinese coercion.

Taiwan has asymmetrical protection strategies in an effort to counteract China’s numerical advantage physically. Investments in precision-strike missiles, AI-powered early warning systems, and computer security capabilities demonstrate a shift from responsive protection to corporate deterrence.

Every new technology added to Taiwan’s army sends the message that the cost of an invasion may get severe. Also, Taiwan regularly conducts joint military exercises with its partners to confirm punishment trust and operational readiness.

Taiwan has risen to the top of the world without receiving official reputation. It has established de facto embassies in key capitals, held parliamentary delegations, and strengthened ties with political allies.

Despite Beijing’s opposition, its latest entry into international forums demonstrates growing global will to help its sovereignty. One example of expanding bilateral support that bypasses conventional political considerations is the US and Taiwan’s 2021 International Cooperation and Training Framework ( GCTF).

Taiwan’s status as a key global player is strengthening financially. Its dominance in semiconductor production, led by TSMC, gives it a clout that few other countries can overlook.

Taiwan has also diversified its business with countries other than China while strengthening ties with Southeast Asia, Europe, and North America. New free trade agreements and expense systems have helped to strongly bind Taiwan’s business to the supply chain network of the political world. Economic independence is a weapon against coercion, not just a plan objective.

Most brilliantly, Taiwan is reversing CCP propaganda with democratic innovation. It has created digital systems for voter wedding, fact-checking, and quick response to online impact campaigns.

The political tech model, which is led by electric minister Audrey Tang, serves as a global example of how openness and electronic literacy can protect against authoritarian manipulation. Taiwan is demonstrating that available societies can be more efficient and resilient than finished systems by doing so.

Civil society organizations, reporters, and think tank play a significant role in preventing autocratic narratives at the local level. While universities conduct studies on disinformation and digital defense, Japanese media regularly exposes pro-CCP impact operations.

This whole-of-society endurance unit is what distinguishes Taiwan as a truly proactive and optimistic democracy.

International plea for quality

The evidence is overwhelming. The CCP uses weapons to sabotage claims, but it does not recognize them. It defies conventions, rewrites story, and conceals diplomacy’s expansion. This design is confirmed by Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, the WTO, and the South China Sea.

The international community must dispel the myth that Beijing’s behavior can be tempered by wedding only. The CCP’s thoughts are techniques rather than agreements. Taiwan, on the other hand, has shown itself to be a companion with a commitment to transparency, shared values, and international role.

Involvement is found in disregarding story. If Taiwan experiences the same death as others who trusted Beijing, the universe cannot claim ignorance. A united political base, strong monetary partnerships, and improved regional deterrence are now the best ways to go about this.

The CCP has long since lost faith, but it is earned. It is not a given. Taiwan has won the respect of the rest of the world thanks to its honesty, tenacity, and creativity. Supporting Taiwan is more of a proper necessity than a moral imperative to maintain the harmony of harmony and democracy in Asia.

Tang Meng Kit is a graduate of Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies ( RSIS), and has completed the MSc in International Relations program. His research areas include jet technology, Japanese politics and policy issues, and cross-Strait relations. He is now employed as an aerospace expert.

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Modi’s holistic plan for breaking China’s Indo-Pacific hold  – Asia Times

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his initial state visit to Mauritius in March 2015, he introduced the Nagar, or Security and Development for All in the Region, theory.

A century later, in a second visit to Mauritius, Modi made the announcement to introduce the policy known as MAHASAGAR, an improved and more detailed version of SAGAR.

MAHASAGAR demonstrates a multifaceted, complete, long-term, and more optimistic American vision for the Indo-Pacific, one that goes beyond safety concerns to include development, sharing of technology, and economic cooperation.

India strengthened its diplomatic partnership with Mauritius during Modi’s attend to the country to become an Enhanced Strategic Partnership. &nbsp,

In order to maintain a stable future, Modi’s new perception of MAHASAGAR, which means” water” in Hindi, aims to incorporate trade-driven growth, capacity-building for sustainable growth, and a common security framework.

Key components of this initiative are anticipated to be administrative support, concessional financing, and modern assistance. However, how the MAHASAGAR coverage may be put into effect, as with SAGAR 2.0, is still up for debate. &nbsp,

In the growing Indo-Pacific dynamics, SAGAR has been India’s strategic platform for coastal engagement over the past ten years, highlighting India’s contribution to ensuring a secure, safe, and steady regional order.

Modi’s remarks at the 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue, including his presentation speech, more heightened India’s Indo-Pacific perspective, placing it in a broader political context. Vikram Misri, then India’s Deputy National Security Advisor ( now Foreign Secretary ), laid out five fundamental pillars of SAGAR at the 2023 Shangri-La Dialogue, namely:    

  1. Security teamwork, &nbsp
  2. Capacity-building;
  3.  collaborative activity
  4. Green creation and,
  5. connection on the water

India’s relationship with local partners has been guided by these principles. As a complement to SAGAR, India’s Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative ( IPOI ) was developed to provide a collaborative platform that is open and non-treaty-based. The IPOI encourages assistance in areas of sea ecosystem, reference management, disaster reaction, and security coordination.

Important US, Japanese, Australian, ASEAN, France, and New Zealand all have agreements with India regarding the IPOI, underscoring its equitable and joint approach to management in the Indo-Pacific.

India has effectively integrated itself into local security and economic frameworks in order to run SAGAR. Initiatives like the BIMSTEC, Colombo Security Conclave (established in 2020 with Mauritius, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and the Maldives ), and India’s observer status in the Indian Ocean Commission ( composed of Mauritius, Seychelles, Madagascar, Mayotte, and Réunion ) underline its commitment to institutionalized maritime cooperation.

India has taken major capacity-building initiatives to improve local stability and maritime security beyond international engagements. These include improving maritime domain awareness, improving white shipping information, and promoting humanitarian assistance and disaster relief ( HADR) frameworks. &nbsp,

Mauritius exemplifies India’s strategic role in building capacity, benefiting from significant American support in the country’s Coast Guard modernization, institutional development, and financial partnerships. India has engaged in a number of development projects in Mauritius, including the metro job, the fresh Supreme Court building, the 956 housing job, a new Medical clinic, and others.

China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean Region ( IOR ) necessitates a rebalanced strategy despite India’s efforts. The political conflict between India and China, which was made worse by the 2020 Galwan border conflict, has heightened strategic competition, mainly in the IOR.

India’s traditional local part has been challenged by China’s systematic expansion of its economic and military control in the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh.

India’s concern about China’s economic leverage is high because its bilateral trade with China ( US$ 1.1 billion ) is nearly twice as high as India’s ($ 554 million ), which shows how strong Beijing’s economic influence is. This financial space must be bridged while maintaining India’s strategic partnerships.

The transition from SAGAR to MAHASAGAR appears to be an attempt to address this issue by intensifying participation in the Indian Ocean Region’s coastal states for development and security.

The move from SAGAR to MAHASAGAR is necessary in light of the return of a transactional US foreign policy under the Trump administration, the fast-evolving US-China conflict, and the rapidly expanding US-China Belt and Road Initiative ( BRI ) footprint in the IOR and the Pacific Island Region.

India is a trustworthy and trustworthy online security provider to the IOR and the wider Indo-Pacific region because of the gaps between consistent non-traditional security threats and the readiness of coastal states.

Nevertheless, India faces significant economic challenges in order to expand its interests. A review of the Ministry of External Affairs ( MEA ) annual report revealed a decline in the ministry’s budget, which undermines India’s ability to provide aid and sustain substantial support for the MEA’s Technical and Economic Cooperation ( TEC ) programs.

The Committee on External Affairs ‘ Fourth Report ( 2024-25 ) of the 18th Lok Sabha of the 18th Lok Sabha of recommends” a gradual increase of at least 20 % annually in the MEA budget over the next five years to address resource deficits and alignment with long-term goals.”

Without adequate funding, MAHASAGAR runs the risk of becoming a lofty political word without the resources to support its transformational goals. India’s decision to switch from SAGAR to MAHASAGAR reflects its reputation of the need for a more expansive, active Indo-Pacific wedding strategy.

India may address a number of pressing issues in order for this vision to come into reality, including but not limited to increasing financial commitments and strengthening partnerships with ASEAN, the US, Japan, Australia, and essential IOR countries.

To strengthen economic proposal, the policy must diversify trade and investment partnerships to counter China’s economic dominance in the area. India may be institutionalized more to maintain long-term balance by playing a strategic role in local groups like the IPOI and the Colombo Security Conclave.

In the end, how well-equipped will India be to achieve the objectives of the MAHASAGAR depend on its ability to balance monetary and political goals. In a world where the political landscape is rapidly changing, MAHASAGAR’s effective implementation could strengthen India’s position as a leading power and provider of net security in the Indo-Pacific by balancing local security, financial growth, and strategic influence.

Rahul Mishra is a senior research fellow at the Thammasat University, Thailand’s Center for Excellence in Public Policy and Good Governance, and an associate professor at the Centre for Indo-Pacific Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India. He can be reached at raj, and rnbsp. followed on X at @rahulmishr_ and sent via [email protected]&nbsp.

Harshit Prajapati is a graduate candidate at Jawaharlal Nehru University, India’s School of International Studies ‘ Center for Indo-Pacific Studies. He can be reached at jnu.ac. harshi55_is [email protected]. followed on X at @harshitp_47 and followed in.

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Thawing Arctic heats up US-Russia imperialist instincts – Asia Times

You can’t seize another nation, it says. At a recent press conference with the Greenland’s approaching and approaching prime ministers, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen delivered this information. It appeared to be directed at Russian President Vladimir Putin, rather than Donald Trump, the leader of one of her government’s closest friends, who has threatened to overthrow Greenland.

Frederiksen was speaking in Nuuk, the money of Greenland, stating something that is clear under international law but cannot now be taken for granted. Under Trump, US foreign policy has played into Russian and possibly Chinese regional ambitions and has become a major driver of this doubt.

Jens-Frederik Nielsen, the approaching Greenlandic prime minister, made it abundantly clear that Greenlanders should decide their coming, no the United States. Denmark is in charge of Greenland’s home scheme, but it makes its own choices. Surveys indicate that the majority of locals want to leave Denmark in the future but don’t want to live in the US.

Trump’s attention in Greenland is frequently linked to the island’s great, but generally untapped, mineral resources. But its advantageous position is unquestionably an even greater plus. Due to melting sea ice, shifting roads through the Arctic have become more predictable and reliable throughout the year.

The Northern Passage  and the Northern Passage  ( along the US and Canadian shorelines ) are frequently ice-free during the summer.

A map of the Arctic showing the Northwest Passage.
Arctic Development and Maritime Transportation: website. Arcticportal. com

This opens up more opportunities for business transport. For instance, the east section can make a pot send travel from Asia to Europe up to three times shorter than traditional roads through the Suez Canal or around Africa.

The northwest section, on the other hand, offers the shortest path between Alaska and the east coast of the United States. Add to that the Arctic’s good significant assets, which range from oil and gas to nutrients, and the area is starting to appear like a huge real estate deal in the works.

goods in the Arctic

The Arctic’s financial potential and, in particular, its greater availability have also raised military and security concerns.

Vladimir Putin addressed the fifth global Arctic community in Murmansk in Russia’s high north the day before JD Vance’s planned trip to Greenland on March 28 and warned of growing geopolitical conflict.

He quickly pointed out that Moscow was “upgrading the combat skills of the Armed Forces, and modernising military equipment services” in the Arctic, even while saying that” Russia has previously threatened anyone in the Arctic.”

Russia’s increased marine assistance with China and Beijing’s access to the Arctic, which is equally alarming, have both increased. The two nations ‘ warships signed a cooperation agreement on search and rescue operations on the great lakes in April 2024.

A map showing possible shipping routes through the Arctic.
Ice Data Center, National Snow &, and Arcticportal. nonprofit

China participated in Russia’s largest marine tactics in the post-Cold War period, Ocean-2024, which were carried out in the northern Pacific and Arctic waters in September 2024. Russian and Chinese beach watch ships conducted their second joint Arctic guard the following month. Thus, Vance makes a point when he urges Greenland and Denmark to break up a bargain with the US because the “island isn’t safe.”

Westwards have noticed that the Russia-China relationship has led to an extremely militarized presence in the Arctic. Canada recently announced a$ 6 billion ( US$ 4.2 billion ) upgrade to facilities in its joint North American Aerospace Defense Command, which it oversees with the United States, in protest of the security of its Arctic territories.

To strengthen its Arctic defenses, it will also engage another$ 420 million in boosting the presence of its military forces, as well as purchase more boats, icebreakers, and fighter jets.

What part will Svalbard play in the future?

Norway has increased its military presence in the Arctic, particularly in relation to the Svalbard archipelago, which is strategically located between the Scandinavian mainland and the Arctic Circle.

Russia has reacted infuriated to this, falsely alleging that Oslo violated the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, which gave Norway the mainland with the condition that it must certainly host Scandinavian military installations.

According to the agreement, Russia has a straight to a place of worship there. Yury Trutnev, the Russian deputy prime minister’s minister to the far eastern federal area, is the head of the” commission on ensuring Russia’s existence on the coast Spitzbergen,” which is the Russian government’s adopted name for Svalbard. Trumpnev has filed numerous complaints about excessive Scandinavian restrictions on Russia’s appearance in Svalbard.

From the Kremlin’s point of view, this is more about Norway’s and NATO’s appearance in a proper place at the intersection of the Greenland, Barents, and Norway seas.

From there, it is possible to monitor sea prospects along Russia’s northeastern passage. The strategic significance of the island would grow even more if and when a key Arctic shipping route, which may link Greenland and Svalbard, becomes practicable.

Greenland is more significant from the standpoint of Washington because it is more close to the US. However, Svalbard is essential to NATO for tracking and halting marine pursuits from Russia and China.

Trump’s White House cares less about local security administration and is more concerned with its own immediate area.

In consequence, there hasn’t been any advice so far that the US needs Svalbard in the same way that Trump claims he needs Greenland to provide US security. Russia has not threatened Svalbard in any particular way.

However, it was obvious that Putin discussed traditional regional issues in his  speech at the Arctic Forum, including a mysterious 1910 proposal for a property switch between the US, Denmark, and Germany involving Greenland.

Putin also noted that” the NATO countries are exceedingly frequently designating the Far North as a catalyst for potential problems.” Moscow’s logic is understandable, and it is easy to see why Russia may claim Svalbard if the US is claim Greenland for safety reasons.

The conclusion to draw from this is not that Trump may aim to seize a royal Norwegian area as well. The importance of maintaining and strengthening long-standing relationships is highlighted by the North Atlantic’s sea geography.

As a result of expanding NATO security cooperation with Denmark and Norway, US interests may be protected and Russia would receive a powerful concept. It would also send a strong message to the rest of the world that the US is not planning to start a regional reorganization of international politics in order to serve only Moscow, Beijing, and Washington.

University of Birmingham professor of global surveillance Stefan Wolff

The Conversation has republished this post under a Creative Commons license. Study the article’s introduction.

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Atlantic’s Anne Applebaum needs to repeat 3rd grade math – Asia Times

Hungary is currently one of the poorest and, possibly, the poorest in the European Union. Commercial output is declining year over year. The region’s production is close to the lowest level. The rate of unemployment is rising. The community is shrinking, claims Anne Applebaum in the March 31 issue of The Atlantic, despite the ruling group’s hushed discussion of traditional values.

This diatribe, which claims to identify in Hungary’s regional conservatism a severe outlook for Trump’s America, contains no one correct fact that is stated. Ms. Applebaum, who is mathematically challenged, may think about taking the third degree again and learning math.

Hungary can’t avoid the effects of Germany’s commercial decline, and the majority of Europe is in or close to crisis. Under the Fidesz Party, which took company in 2010, Hungary’s achievement has been at or close to the top of its competition.

Graphic: Asia Times

The World Bank adjusts the raw data to represent what people really can purchase with their income in terms of GDP, which is measured in terms of purchasing power parity. In light of this, Hungary’s per person GDP is higher than that of Greece or Poland, but it still trails the Czech Republic and Slovenia in this regard.

Hungary’s efficiency is at the top of the list among its peers if we take into account the development of GDP in purchasing-power equality since 2010, when Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban took office.

Graphic: Asia Times

Applebaum asserts that Hungary’s community is shrinking as a result of people’s departures:” Despite the ruling group’s hushed claims about traditional beliefs, the people is shrinking.”

Nearly every Western nation’s population is declining, but Viktor Orban’s Hungary has experienced the biggest treatment. It is one of only two Northern European nations with positive net movement, along with Czechia:

Graphic: Asia Times

Hungary also excels in another crucial area, especially the proportion of its adult population that is financially inactive.

Graphic: Asia Times

Simply Japan is among the European nations with the lowest inactivity rate, according to the OECD, making it the only one. For instance, in the UK, only 6 % of men between the ages of 25 and 54 are employed, compared to just 6 % in Hungary. This indicates that there are many careers available and that people want to do them.

Hungary’s total fertility rate has increased significantly since 2010, but it has fallen in every other European nation, despite Hungary’s fertility rate still being below alternative. Other European nations received a reproduction increase from a flood of refugees, which Hungary refused to accept, as I explained in a January 21 writing in Asia Times.

In the first generation, immigrants typically have higher fertility rates than citizens; however, as this trend faded, fertility rates dramatically decreased across most of Europe, while Hungary’s fertility rate remained steady.

Graphic: Asia Times

Applebaum has been throwing a protracted public outburst since her father, Radek Sikorsky, lost his position in the Polish unusual government when a traditional government emerged. Hitler is the only person she doesn’t enjoy. In 2020, I wrote a review of her punishment novel.

Anne Applebaum’s record of “little Hitlers” includes past flames like British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, former friends who attended her 1999 New Year’s Eve party in Poland while her father, Radek Sikorski, was a member of the foreign ministry, and others. Because they suffer from “authoritarian characteristics,” Applebaum avers, the rogue party guests apparently morphed from democracy activists to Germans.

The old Hungarian straight, the Spanish straight, the French right, the Roman straight, and, with differences, the English straight and the British right, are also included in her list. It’s difficult to tell the difference between Applebaum’s philosophical rage over her father’s career and her individual disappointment with her friends who left the liberal dogmas of 1989.

She may continue to serve as the Neo-Conservative Right’s Don Rickles. Simply put, Applebaum is unable to publish a table or add or subtract.

Hungary may, to be certain, enhance its economic management, but its demographics and family policy accomplishments are remarkable and unique. Every standard deviation identifies its financial achievement as close to or above that of its peers.

David P. Goldman works at the Budapest Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies as a research fellow and vice editor of Asia Times ( Business ).

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S Korea on edge as US hints at redeploying troops – Asia Times

After a” secret” Pentagon memo directed the unit to prioritize “deterring China’s seizure of Taiwan” and” strengthening homeland defense,” concerns are mounting in South Korea over the evolving role of the United States Forces Korea ( USFK) in other regions.

The 28, 500 British soldiers stationed in South Korea may change their main focus from deterring North Korea to fighting China, which, in Seoul’s opinion, poses a risk to putting strain on already fragile relations with Beijing.

A defined file titled” Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance” was distributed to the US Defense Department in mid-March, according to a report from the Washington Post on March 29. &nbsp,

The report apparently outlines US President Donald Trump’s strategy for preparing for and possible winning a conflict with China while also standing up for US interests in the “near abroad” area, including Greenland and the Panama Canal.

Hegseth officially signed the document, which aims to rebuild America’s military engagements in the Indo-Pacific, shifting its focus apart from North Korean threats to China’s possible hostility against Taiwan. &nbsp,

The change comes in spite of North Korea’s new actions, including the growth and launch of new long-range rockets capable of hitting the US mainland. &nbsp,

The Pentagon” will believe risk in other theaters,” according to the report, which addresses personnel and resources shortages, therefore pressuring friends in Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia to assume greater punishment jobs against regional enemies like Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

This reflects a more expansive burden-sharing approach that has been at the center of Trump’s foreign legislation since his first word. As the nation restructures its defense strategy to be less dependent on the continuous existence of US troops, the move may raise South Korea’s defense spending.

The letter’s designation as “other cinemas” implies that the US is considering establishing a new base there and possibly deploying American troops out of South Korea. &nbsp, &nbsp,

” South Korea claims to respect USFK’s” Statement of Flexibility,” but all of that is vacant. Lee Sang-soo, a visiting research fellow at the Jeju Peace Institute, told Asia Times that” South Korea ] needs the USFK to be anchored on the peninsula.”

Seoul lacks the ability to have its neighbor without US soldiers because of North Korea’s nuclear threat, according to Lee. He claimed that because of this, South Korea’s safety depends on USFK’s existence on the island.

Redeployment dangers

The concept of expanding USFK’s influence in the Indo-Pacific is never novel. &nbsp,

Former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and then-South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon, who later became the UN’s Secretary-General, first agreed on the concept of” Strategic Flexibility,” which would allow for possible USFK operations outside the Korean Peninsula.

However, the US has previously acknowledged Seoul’s needed for a persistent protection assurance, as demonstrated by the British soldiers stationed in South Korea since the Korean War.

Concerns are now growing that the Pentagon’s new instruction makes the redeployment of USFK a feasible chance. &nbsp,

Kim Jong Un, a leader of North Korea, might be miscalculated as a result of the USFK’s exit, according to Kang Joon-young, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, in an appointment with Money Today.

Washington might even use a reduced USFK presence as leverage in negotiations over defense costs, with the US probably demanding more money from Seoul.

According to Lee, the researcher,” The US has persistently urged South Korea to add more to maintaining the USFK.” It may also use economic pressure, such as taxes, to get what it thinks is a good share of the soldiers stationed there. &nbsp,

Lee’s worries are now a fact. Trump made his long-awaited record of “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2 to make amends to the “unfair” trade practices of nations that import to the US. A new 26 % tax was applied to South Korea.

During Trump’s shared address to Congress on March 5 that outlined his reasoning behind reciprocal taxes, South Korea received a particular shout-out. &nbsp,

Trump referred to South Korea as a nation that badly treats the US in the address, saying that” South Korea’s regular price is four times higher… And we give so much support physically and in so many different methods to South Korea, but that’s what happens.”

Trump’s remarks, which associate military aid with tariffs, have sparked concerns in South Korea that the US might increase its tariffs even further when negotiations begin to discuss defense costs.

Trump is trying to use a method that ties security concerns to trade, according to Kim Dae-shik, floor spokesperson for South Korea’s ruling People’s Power Party. &nbsp,

South Korea needs a strategy that maintains a principled stance while also preventing any linkages to trade negotiations, Kim added.

South Korea has already agreed to increase its defense annual contributions to US$ 1.3 billion by 2026, after which costs will increase annually based on South Korea’s Consumer Price Index.

Trump did make the suggestion during the campaign that he would demand from Seoul up to$ 10 billion annually.

Taiwan’s conundrum

According to Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank, the Trump administration may also exert pressure on South Korea to play a more active role in Taiwan’s defense.

To be sure, US pressure on South Korea to clarify its position on Taiwan is not new. Due to its emphasis on North Korean threats and its economic reliance on Beijing, Seoul is reluctant to define its role in a Taiwan emergency involving Chinese aggression. &nbsp,

However, according to Yeo, the Trump administration may pressure South Korea into “more concrete discussions related to Taiwan.”

In the event of a Taiwan Strait contingency, Yeo wrote in a recent report that” the United States may push South Koreans outside of their comfort zone to provide more clarity and pledge robust support for the US-South Korea alliance.”

Lee noted that if China invades Taiwan, the US may have to compel South Korea to commit high-risk commitments, such as allowing US forces to use South Korean air and naval bases, or assisting in logistics and reconnaissance operations.

Any overt South Korean commitments to Taiwan’s defense would unavoidably strain Beijing’s economic ties. With exports to China reaching$ 133 billion in 2024, up 6.6 % year over year, China is South Korea’s main trading partner.

In light of Trump’s new prohibitive tariffs, China’s market will become all the more significant because of South Korea’s export-oriented economy.

” This will be a challenging balancing act, but South Korea must align its position with the United Nations’. It must support Beijing’s” One China” strategy while performing its full role as a US ally, Lee continued. ” [South Korea ] needs to consider its economic ties to China.”

South Korea’s prior strategic alignment with the US has prompted China to react strongly. &nbsp,

Beijing, for instance, imposed unofficial economic sanctions against South Korea that included a tourism ban, trade restrictions, and consumer boycotts after installing the THAAD missile defense system in 2016.

Geopolitical risk

Despite these worries, the South Korean government claims to still be confident in America’s commitment to deterring North Korea. &nbsp,

The US Department of Defense has not provided any official confirmation or statement, the South Korean government said the day after the Washington Post’s report on the secret memo was made public. &nbsp,

The Korean Peninsula’s main goal is still maintaining peace and stability, and that has not changed.

Seoul is under increasing pressure to align with new US priorities while balancing its own security and economic interests as Washington reshapes its Indo-Pacific strategy. &nbsp,

In light of the ongoing political unrest and the looming economic effects of Trump’s new tariffs, whether South Korea can maintain its strategic autonomy or become more and more involved in great-power competition is still a mystery.

The decisions Seoul makes in the upcoming months could redefine its geopolitical standing and risks for years to come as Pyongyang closely observes and Beijing poises to retaliate.

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Vietnam to Trump: ‘Just Don’t Do It’ on tariffs – Asia Times

Demand for athletic shoes and equipment is apparently skyrocketing as the NCAA Championship final is set to captivate millions of sports fans in the US and above.

The March Madness game is a huge marketing opportunity for clothing giants like Nike and Adidas, whose products dominate the wood courts, as well as a display of college basketball skills.

However, these brands benefit from greater awareness in the context of the scene, and their supply chains are in danger of experiencing a crisis. The important manufacturing hub for these businesses, Vietnam, is the subject of President Donald Trump’s 46 % tax increase.

Vietnam’s rising clothing sector is now facing an existential threat that may destroy both the sector and US consumers. As the main producer of high-performance basketball shoes and apparel, Vietnam’s rising footwear sector is now the main producer of high-performance basketball shoes and apparel.

Vietnam has benefited significantly from shifting supply chains, especially as businesses have fled China to evade US tariffs that have previously been applied. Over half of Nike’s shoes generation and a sizable portion of Adidas ‘ manufacturing are currently done in Vietnam.

Trump’s extreme tariff policy implies that these well-known sportswear manufacturers will significantly raise their costs, making them both to pass price increases on to consumers or to look for alternative production locations, both of which would cause significant disruptions.

Higher tariffs was stifle investment in Vietnam’s factories, which could ultimately stifle demand, leading to layoffs and lowering economic growth in a country that has recently emerged as one of the US’s main financial partners.

The tariffs could undermine a crucial component of the global supply chain at a time when need is exploding because apparel companies are so deeply embedded in Vietnam’s business.

Additionally, Trump’s punishing tax threatens to pressure ties between the two countries at a crucial time, just as they commemorate 50 years since Saigon’s fall on April 30.

The US and Vietnam have developed a relationship that is now proper complete partners, centered on financial co-operation, regional security, and shared safety concerns in the Indo-Pacific, especially with regard to China in the South China Sea.

Trump’s incredibly high tariff runs the risk of stifling supply chains, stifling confidence, and causing Vietnam to look for other financial alliances, potentially undermining US influence in the region at a time when political security is important.

According to Morningstar analyst David Swartz, the White House’s draconian position is based on the US’s$ 123.5 billion trade deficit with Vietnam, which is the third-largest country in the world after only China and Mexico.

Vietnamese officials have attempted to reach a deal before the burdensome tariff levy goes into effect on April 9 in response.

Vietnam offered to eliminate all US import tariffs and requested that the US not impose any additional tariffs or fees on Vietnamese goods in a letter sent on April 5 from Vietnamese Communist Party chief to Trump, according to Bloomberg.

Additionally, he requested a 45-day restraint from the implementation of the tariffs. Hanoi has made diplomatic concessions, and his pledges also include assisting in the repatriation of Vietnamese nationals who have been held in the US.

In the end, multinational corporations that employ hundreds of thousands of workers in Vietnam will primarily be responsible for the 46 % tariffs that are intended for the country. These costs, however, will eventually be passed down the supply chain, causing the American consumer to suffer as a result.

When the new Vietnam-specific tariffs go into effect, for example, the price of a pair of Nike shoes, like the Nike Air Force 1, is expected to increase from an average of$ 115 to over$ 150.

Although the majority of economists concur that tariffs are a tax on businesses, in reality companies typically make up for these costs by raising prices, lowering profit margins, or moving production elsewhere.

The tariff impact for Vietnam will go beyond multinational corporations, and it will also have an impact on the nation’s workforce, who depends on manufacturing jobs from foreigners to provide for its people’s needs.

For instance, Nike has over 130 000 Vietnamese employees working for it in 75 contracted factories that produce Nike-branded goods nationwide. Nike claimed in its 2024 financial year report that it produced 50 % of its footwear and 28 % of its clothing in Vietnam.

Women, who make up 80 % of the workforce in Nike’s factories, have a significant employment opportunity thanks to Nike’s extensive manufacturing presence in Vietnam.

Many of these women are looking for better pay and financial stability and are from rural poor in the central and northern provinces. Many families have been benefited from their Nike-linked jobs as they have ascended to a global economy.

Indeed, for many of these workers, working in one of Nike’s factories is their first exposure to the formal economy, giving them access to steady incomes, legal protections, and opportunities for skill development that can lead to broader career opportunities.

Beyond providing financial benefits, Nike’s involvement in the promotion of gender equality and economic empowerment has also been significant. Many of these women serve as role models for younger generations in their communities, inspiring them to pursue careers and education.

Trump’s” Liberation Day” tariffs also result in higher prices for US consumers for a range of everyday items, especially in those whose heavily depend on Vietnamese exports, such as shoes, electronics, and textiles.

Former Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade Frank Lavin has publicly criticized Trump’s “scattershot” tariffs strategy for causing conflicting outcomes, hurting the US economy, and causing volatility.

He observes other countries and businesses looking for opportunities elsewhere as the US loses its credibility as a trading partner.

Trump’s tariffs on key trading partners, including Vietnam, come at a time when the world economy was and is still highly interconnected.

In a world defined by globalization, these protectionist measures not only stymie complex supply chains but also put strain on diplomatic, economic, and possibly security relations.

A more fragmented and rebalanced global order, a “rewired” world where cooperative frameworks are increasingly undermined, is the focus of Trump’s action. That new world will have detrimental effects on a wide range of stakeholders, both in developed and developing economies.

After the NCAA finals, basketball fans will likely see higher prices and fewer options for athletic clothing after the new champion is announced.

What appears to be Trump’s economic “liberation” could have the opposite effect, harming US consumers and endangering long-held ties with a Vietnami trade partner.

James Borton is the author of Dispatches from the South China Sea: Navigating to Common Ground and a senior fellow at Johns Hopkins/SAIS Foreign Policy Institute.

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Japan’s Tomahawk-like missile shows fading faith in US – Asia Times

Japan is working to build a Tomahawk-like weapon, aiming to reach further, faster, and on its own terms as China and North Korea’s missile threats come to an end and US stocks are running out.

This month, Naval News reported that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries ( MHI ) and Japan’s Ministry of Defense ( MOD ) signed a 32.3 billion yen ( US$ 219 million ) contract to create a new” Surface-to-Ship/Surface-to-Surface Precision Guided Missile” ( SURFA ).

Through improvements in range, precision advice, and aircraft capabilities, the weapon aims to improve its anti-ship and anti-ground efficiency.

Development is expected to start in 2024 through 2032, making use of improvements made by Kawasaki Heavy Industries ‘” New Anti-Ship Missile for the Defense of Remote Islands” and MHI’s Model 12 surface-to-ship weapon improvements.

The weapon has aerodynamic wings and a fuel-efficient website, which makes extended parallel journey possible, similar to the US Tomahawk. Targeting accuracy and penetration abilities will be improved by intelligence satellites and unmanned aerial vehicles ( UAVs ).

This security initiative highlights Japan’s strategic shift to disagreement weapons as it intensifies its efforts to combat China’s sea aggression and North Korea’s weapon advances. Important project details, including engine design, are still undetermined, according to an official from Japan’s Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Agency ( ALTA ) &nbsp ).

The action complements Japan’s more aggressive military development plan, with tensions spread throughout East Asia fueled by the need. In response to rising challenges from China and North Korea, Japan announced in October 2023 that it planned to purchase 400 US Tomahawk weapons.

In order to highlight China’s evolving missile threat to Japan, Newsweek reported in March 2025 that the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force ( PLARF ) had deployed advanced missile systems capable of piercing Japan’s ballistic missile defenses.

The ground-launched cruise missiles CJ-10 and CJ-100, as well as China’s DF-17 medium-range ballistic missile, pose considerable challenges to Japan’s island.

These rockets have ranges of 1, 500 to 2, 500 kilometers and are located in the northern provinces of Jilin and eastern Shandong, covering Japan’s four main islands. Moreover, the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, which is in use in Anhui province, increases China’s range of attacks by 4, 000 km.

In addition, USNI reported in January 2025 that North Korea’s test of its hypersonic missiles that quarter indicates its goal to improve its corporate punishment features. The weapon was reported by state media,” The missile traveled 1, 500 km at Mach 12 and traveled in a “dual top” before falling into the Sea of Japan.

However, the Joint Chiefs of Staff from South Korea and Japan’s MOD provided conflicting information, with data that showed a maximum range of 1,100 kilometers and the presence of the alleged next peak.

However, Japan’s decision to create a similar indigenous weapon may have been influenced by the challenges facing US Tomahawk weapon production. In a March 2025 post from 1945, Reuben Johnson points out that the US Navy is experiencing a severe lack of Tomahawk cruise missiles as a result of rapid consumption levels exceeding creation skills.

Over 80 rockets were used in a single day in latest issues, including the 2024 Yemen strikes. A” just-in-time” production model that limits surge capacity adds to business challenges caused by fluctuating procurement needs and insufficient production prices.

Efforts to increase production through exports have not yet had considerable impact. Also, inconsistent demand has resulted in bottlenecks in crucial components like rocket motors, further putting off replenishment. Recent production costs are insufficient, with orders from 2023 estimating that only five missiles will be delivered each month by 2025.

In a report released in January 2023 for the Center for Strategic and International Studies ( CSIS), Seth Jones points out that the US spent 400 Tomahawk missiles in just three weeks of hostilities in the Taiwan Strait, with a replacement missile from a Tomahawk Block V taking 25 months.

This ability stock decline may leave much room for friends like Japan. However, Masashi Murano claims in a March 2024 article by the US Studies Center ( USSC ) that upgrading the Type 12 to a longer-range, more powerful missile presents a number of technical challenges.

A longer-range, better-than-ever Type 12 would require a satellite data link and its existing guidance system to update its flight path in real-time, allowing for time-sensitive targets like transporter-erector-launchers ( TELs ).

Additionally, an upgraded Type 12 may require different type of warheads to crater runways and obliterate bunkers and other hardened targets. China and North Korea are even likely to have strong threats, which would require the purchase of electronic warfare drones that can imitate the names of their adversary’s threats.

Murano also points out that Japan has limited manufacturing capacity for such munitions and that the long-range hit systems it is developing are costly. However, Japan needs to view much in order to take.

Christopher Woody makes clear in a March 2025 Breaking Defense article that Japan’s reliance on the US for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance ( ISR ) is still significant, with gaps in its “kill chain” capabilities necessitating US support for target detection and tracking. This leaves the chance that the US will resign when Japan had most require them.

Importantly, the temporary suspension of US knowledge sharing with Ukraine in 2025 made it clear how powerfully significant such actions can be for a country’s defenses, prompting US allies to reevaluate their reliance on US military resources and technology.

In the case of Ukraine, the demise of US intelligence services led to Russia’s ability to retake important chunks of Kursk, upending Ukraine’s policy of using Russian country as a bargaining device for peace negotiations.

Withdrawing a decision like this may give Japan the plain but challenging choice to develop its own independent counterstrike capabilities without relying on the US, or to continue adopting US technology while reducing the chance of abandonment.

In a report for the Institute for International and Strategic Studies ( IISS) in January 2024, Veerle Nouwens and others point out that while Japan has launched a reconnaissance satellite and has pledged to launch small satellites for target detection and build over-the-horizon ( OTH) radars, it will likely continue to rely on the US for these capabilities due to the complexity and cost of the associated equipment.

Woody points out that the Trump administration’s transactional approach to relationships has strained US-Japan relationships deeper, with needs for more Chinese security funding and criticisms of Japan’s contributions to the empire.

Although Japan has pledged to double defense spending to 2 % of GDP by 2027, these plans are hampered by political and economic issues, including public opposition to tax increases. The check will be whether Japan’s missiles can travel farther than US promises, as it shifts from dependent to deterrence.

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China’s tariffs as a Mike Tyson knockout punch to America – Asia Times

Yo, Canibus, your primary objective out these

Is to do nothing but take, take, take, take Clusters

For breakfast, breakfast, dining, that’s your plan, baby

Your objective to take them

Their whole living, they didn’t exist in your existence

The Canibus is here to rule long, Mike Tyson, on the trap

– Canibus with Mike Tyson

Mike Tyson’s most dangerous pairing was a right hook to his team’s kept liver followed by a bounce left to the neck. Properly executed, the right connect to the brain immediately stuns the opposition causing him to twice over, exposing the chin to the left follow-up.

China just went large, implementing a 34 % across-the-board tariff on goods from the US, import restrictions on a range of rare earth materials and sanctions on 11 American firms. Mike Tyson has really delivered a right connect to the body.

China even went second. A festival of economy, Vietnam most officially, has been making calling to the White House to discuss away terrible tariffs. The mendacious approach would have been to procrastinate and see.

If China’s plan were to rescue as much industry as possible, a wait-and-see strategy may be ideal. The whole world had become jockeying for advantage as everyone takes cues from everyone else and winds up with similarly horrible deals, especially large reductions in tariffs and/or commitments to purchase huge quantities of British goods.

By going out great with a hostile price, China signaled that it is not trying to meet President Donald Trump way. Mike Tyson wants to battle and is going for a knock.

Only China ( maybe the EU, but come on, who’re we kidding? ) you get big. If China had waited, some smaller economies would include capitulated, forcing China to either meet or bend in the wind – retribution at that point may be meaningless and self-isolating.

By going out first and going out strong, China just improved everyone’s negotiating position. Now, smaller economies ( and the EU, e. g. Airbus ) know China will not undercut them in negotiations. Going out early provides cover for other economies to drive a harder bargain, magnifying the impact of China’s retaliatory body blow.

Previously, Han Feizi lamented the tragic political economy that prevented America from reindustrializing, writing:

Reversing globalization would involve a massive derating of US asset prices as sales to foreign buyers are artificially restricted. Effects on GDP could theoretically be contained, but the wealthy would have to become poorer in hopes of bringing low-income folks back into the middle class as investment bankers become process engineers and Uber drivers become factory workers.

For a political economy that couldn’t figure out a mechanism to pay them off as globalization created immense riches, how likely is it that the immensely rich will stomach becoming significantly poorer?

Evidently, Han Feizi underestimated President Trump’s stomach for chaos. On many levels, we should all applaud Trump. He has blown a hole right through America’s tragic political economy and threw rich people under the bus – something no president, Democrat nor Republican, has had the cajones to do.

Unfortunately, these tariffs are a confused muck-up and will leave the US a much reduced economic power. It is unclear what the Trump administration is trying to accomplish. Is he trying to raise revenue, reindustrialize America or strong-arm trade partners?

The entire rollout, from the Mickey Mouse tariff formula to slapping tariffs on penguin-inhabited islands, was an embarrassment. We will not belabor what a dumpster fire this ill-conceived expression of Trump’s 1980s” Japan is eating our lunch” mind rot this all is and instead focus on what China and the rest of the world can do in response. &nbsp, &nbsp,

The US ran a US$ 1.2 trillion trade deficit in 2024 on$ 4.1 trillion in imports. Han Feizi is of the belief that there is no such thing as unbalanced trade – by definition. That’s why it is called” trade” and not “robbery” or” theft”.

The world sold more goods to the US than it purchased. The world didn’t supply these excess goods out of the kindness of their hearts. Nor did they get bamboozled into accepting worthless paper from the printing presses of the US Federal Reserve.

The world made up the difference by accepting American assets in lieu of goods. Paper currency and US government debt are just claims on American assets. And foreigners have been claiming American assets. About 40 % of the market cap of US stocks is now held by foreigners– up from less than 5 % in 1965.

The greatest event in economic history was the opening of the North American continent for capitalist exploitation. The US has always traded assets for labor, whether through settler colonialism, pioneers, slavery, immigration or trade.

The political economy of America’s asset and labor allocation has made trade “deficits” all but unavoidable. What should have been avoided was concentrating the spoils of this assets-for-goods business model in so few hands.

Trump has just implemented import tariffs which rends asunder this assets-for-goods business model. Unfortunately, America is short$ 1.2 trillion per annum of goods production and conjuring up much capacity domestically is highly unlikely in the short term.

The rest of the world, however, is presented with a different but altogether more favorable conundrum. Goods, formerly exchanged for American assets, will now have to be exchanged for other goods, the productive capacity of which already exists.

China, to nobody’s surprise, is a major manufacturer of bass boats. The non-American market for bass boats is essentially zero. It should be far less costly to convert bass boat production to other products (scooters, jet skis, flying cars, who knows? ) than to build the capacity from scratch in the US — the factories, engineers, machinists and technicians already exist in China.

Reshaping the market so that existing productive capacity finds buyers should be a lesser hurdle than creating this capacity where none exist. This is the “increase domestic consumption” strategy.

The more ambitious strategy would be to create a new set of assets to replace American ones. The new asset class of the world’s ultimate fantasy is surely Global South infrastructure. This is the holy grail of rational economic development and the theoretical basis for President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Well before Trump’s tariff temper tantrum, Chinese policymakers have long understood that capital flowing from less-developed Asia to fund consumption in more developed America — the Lucas Paradox — was highly problematic.

The BRI project was devised to correct this unnatural development model for the Global South, where capital from a richer China flows to less developed economies to fund infrastructure construction. In this case, our bass boat factory can be retooled to make excavators or cement mixers to build power plants in Nairobi or Ashgabat.

There are, of course, obstacles to this model on top of retooling bass boat factories. To date, the BRI project has shelled out$ 1.2 trillion, with a significant slowdown in recent years.

The Covid recession has damaged China’s BRI portfolio, forcing outstanding loans to be restructured, often extending tenures or taking haircuts which, given China’s surging exports and growing economic integration with the Global South, may be justified.

For the BRI to significantly offset a diminished US market, the Global South will need to demonstrate more consistent creditworthiness.

These two strategies – increase domestic consumption and reaccelerate BRI – can be the uppercut follow-up. China has been loath to fund direct consumption stimulus beyond modest car and appliance rebate programs.

The government has leaned heavily on investment, the benefits of which flow to consumers as better infrastructure, lower prices and more innovative products.

Over the long term ( 10-40 years ), this investment strategy has increased China’s household consumption more than any other economy – all 194 of them and twice as fast as second place South Korea. &nbsp,

This time, however, China may just need to lean into stimulating domestic consumption. China ( and Hong Kong ) exported$ 477 billion of goods to the US in 2024 with another$ 100-200 billion in transshipments through third countries like Vietnam and Mexico with the goods skewed towards consumer products. Stimulating another round of investment will soak up steel and cement capacity but not electronics, furniture and appliances.

Announcing a consumption stimulus takes the heat off of global markets, which have been bracing for a flood of Chinese goods redirected to their shores, preventing tariffs from cascading across the world.

Not only would it backstop the deflation induced by the Trump tariffs but exacerbate American inflation, putting the Federal Reserve in a stagflation bind.

But can China make up for lost American demand? Does China have the financial firepower? While not the path favored by the Chinese Communist Party’s conservative style, the fact that the government has not been profligate suggests that there is ample financial firepower.

Various agencies have pegged China’s debt-to-GDP ratio at a high 300 % &nbsp, – above that of the US which, in recent years, has been inflated down to 275 %.

This is far off the mark. Like in many other calculations, consensus Western economists are using the wrong denominator. China has been reporting GDP on a completely different basis for decades ( see here ) and as such, its debt-to-GDP ratio is closer to 150 % or even lower. &nbsp, &nbsp, &nbsp,

Simplistically, there are 500 million Chinese consuming at developed world levels – these are the people who make China the world’s largest market for cars and luxury goods.

And 900 million who are consuming at Southeast Asian levels – these are the people who will be moving into developed world consumption patterns in the next 20 years. So yes, there are plenty of people who can pick up the slack.

If China successfully pulls off the one-two Mike Tyson combo, it could be a knockout blow to the relevance of America in the global economy. China would have created a global trading system that not only does it lead but also leaves the US isolated.

If China plays its cards correctly, the Trump tariffs could go down in history as a far greater debacle than Brexit. Donald Trump has committed an unforced error and presented China with an opportunity that will not be seen in centuries.

While the modern Communist Party has generally been a conservative steward of national interests, it has been known to take wild swings. Zhu Ronji laid off 30 million SOE employees in the late 1990s. Hu Jintao unleashed an epic investment stimulus after the 2008-9 Global Financial Crisis.

Mike Tyson just delivered the first punch with the matching 34 % tariff. Will he follow up with the massive consumption stimulus uppercut?

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