South Korea plunging toward an even deeper political crisis – Asia Times

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After last week’s prosecution motion failed to remove Yoon Suk Yeol from energy for his brief-lived shock declaration of martial law, South Korea is gearing up for a full-fledged political crisis.

Yoon’s ruling People Power Party ( PPP ) boycotted the December 7 vote, allowing for the president’s survival. The Democrat Party-led criticism, however, has promised to continue filing prosecution movements until Yoon is deposed, with the next expected this weekend.

After the unsuccessful prosecution vote, PPP president Han Dong-hoon and prime minister Han Duk-soo issued a quite bizarre joint statement promising Yoon’s “orderly first withdrawal” in a charge to calm the situation. The speech said,” Also before leaving office, the leader does not participate in state politics, including diplomacy”.

Yoon delayed making decisions about his career and stabilizing the nation to his celebration in an address on December 7, but there was no sign that he had really given the Han-Han combo control over government matters. Instead, the president said,” Our party and the government will collectively take accountability for future status affairs”, he said.

The leader must resign or be publicly removed from office, but the law of South Korea does not offer the ruling celebration chair the authority to delegate governing powers to the president or to himself. The prime minister is just able to assume the presidency when the leader is incapacitated or otherwise unable to carry out their duties.

But, what exactly is Han Dong-hoon wondering? Although Han’s precise motivations are still undetermined, it appears he is taking advantage of time to evaluate the president’s and his party’s most corporate exit strategy.

At the moment, three institutions—each asserting power over the matter—have launched studies into the propriety of Yoon’s martial law charter. In Yoon’s opinion, holding onto the president gives him more power and security as the investigations get started. If a leader is not already in office, he or she is not subject to crime.

Yoon can potentially be tried for treason, but it raises a higher bar for prosecutors and authorities. So, Han will probably continue to oppose Yoon’s prosecution, acknowledging that it would limit the government’s liquidity and also cause significant harm to the PPP.

Alternatively, Han is proposing Yoon’s “early withdrawal” while refraining from providing information on the schedule or approach. The ruling party has the freedom to make educated decisions about the changing circumstances and to make educated decisions.

This “time-delay” strategy may also preserve Yoon in energy and prolong the next presidential election. A hastily held vote would place Lee Jae-myung, the presumed candidate from the opposition Democratic Party, as the frontrunner—an results liberals are keen to avoid.

The longer Yoon stays in business, the more difficulty they could cause for the opposition leader because Lee is already dealing with his own growing legal issues.

How much is Han continue to operate in such a unique governing structure, which some lawful authorities have compared to a second coup, is a crucial problem. The truth is likely to be brief.

Analytical pressure keep mounting even as Han extends his ambiguous place. Now, former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun—a key figure in Yoon’s shortlived military rules decree—has been has been indicted, with a&nbsp, judge issuing an arrest warrant&nbsp, against him on December 10. &nbsp,

Yoon is currently subject to travel restrictions from the Justice Ministry, and the authorities have not ruled out an emergency president’s arrest. The trial has officially&nbsp, listed Yoon as a assume, and their research into the senator is expected to ramp up in the coming weeks.

Congressional attention will increase as well. The primary opposition party has pledged to continue pressing an impeachment movement against Yoon until it is overturned. This Saturday ( December 14 ) is expected to be the next attempt.

On Tuesday, opposition parties even passed a everlasting special counsel act to investigate Yoon’s crime costs, garnering&nbsp, sudden backing&nbsp, from ruling PPP people.

As Yoon’s approval ratings plunge to 11 %, seven in 10 South Koreans now support Yoon’s removal.

For Han–whose current gambit edges on unconstitutionality – supporting Yoon’s impeachment may prove more strategically viable than pushing for his early resignation. If the leader were forced to resign under mounting people, political and legal pressure, he would be stripped of all energy quickly.

With Lee Jae-myung now leading in speculative surveys, an election had been held within 60 time of a national position, which would be a big deal for the PPP. More critically, Han’s group is gaining steam as it struggles to remove its president, who lacks both a seat in parliament and a devoted party.

On the other hand, a hearing for the impeachment process could take a while because it’s not clear whether the Constitutional Court’s six-members will yet consent to hear the case. Past impeachment trials suggest that the process could last anywhere between 63 and 91 time, even if the judge accepts it. &nbsp,

However, a fee of high-burden-of-proof treachery was considerably extend the proceedings, for which the Constitutional Court may have a maximal 180 days to provide its decision.

Yoon’s station can fight his case before the courts with this option, but his departure might be seen as a covert admission of guilt. While the jury deliberates, Yoon, a former prosecutor public, may maintain his name as president.

Some legitimate experts remain unsure whether Yoon’s declaration of martial law qualifies as treason under native law, but it is also entirely possible that the leader will be spared of the charges. &nbsp,

Kenji Yoshida is a journalist for Japan Forward in Seoul and a translator.

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China putting private security company boots on ground in Myanmar – Asia Times

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The Taiwanese government appears to be lending a hand in support of the head of Myanmar’s military dictatorship as the legitimate rope pulls with the International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor for an arrest permit.

In August, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Myanmar for his first meet with Myanmar‘s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, since the February 2021 military revolution plunged the country into civil war.

Finally, last month, Min Aung Hlaing reciprocated with his first visit to China as brain of the junta.

According to reports in recent weeks, the Chinese government and the military coup in Myanmar are setting up a joint safety company to defend Chinese tasks and personnel from the civil war. This growth is very concerning and does not have any positive effects for the concerned parties.

The action comes after the opposition’s run of notable military successes, including Operation 1027 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance over the past year. These rebel groups captured large swaths of country near the China-Myanmar border, at least initially with China’s implicit support.

After decades of hedging its bet, there is still much to learn about the implementation of these secret Chinese security guards in Myanmar. However, one thing is sure: China has decided to firmly support the coup.

China’s increasing usage of personal security companies

A wide range of governments are using private security companies and private military companies to show influence and power in other nations without the political complexities that come with deploying classic military forces.

Private security firms provide basic stability to a nation’s citizens or property. Personal military companies, on the other hand, offer more in-depth military service for institutions or other players. This might involve enhancing military training and combat or combat operations.

China has a lot of new models to observe, such as Russia’s Wagner Group and the American Blackwater company. It was a bit late to the game of international private operators.

The private safety sector expanded as a result of the parliamentary changes in China in 2009, with lots of private providers working to protect personal assets from Central Asia to Africa.

Foreign private security firms typically avoid conflict roles and concentrate on protecting infrastructure projects, employees, and investments related to the Belt and Road Initiative.

The fresh joint security company’s presumably will expand the scope and number of these operations, though there are now four Chinese private security firms in Myanmar.

What do they seek to protect? The Myanmar-China Economic Corridor, which connects Kunming in Yunnan province of China with Kyaukphyu in Rakhine condition on Myanmar’s northern coast, is China’s most important strategic job. It includes a proposed railway and two suggested oil and gas pipelines. China is even constructing a interface it.

In Shan state and the Mandalay place, these pipelines pass through a range of armed groups ‘ handled place. The strong Arakan Army, a part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance, also controls the region around Kyaukphyu.

In contrast, opposition parties have already seize control of a Chinese-owned concrete shop in Mandalay and a metal processing plant in Sagaing Region.

What are the probable implications?

There is little to stop the PLA from influencing these organizations ‘ operations on the ground, despite the fact that private security companies are supposedly independent of China’s People Liberation Army ( PLA ).

Additionally, having Chinese private security companies in Myanmar increases the likelihood of Chinese immigrants being harmed and probably killed.

Authoritarian regimes that are facing common violent opposition can occasionally fall fast, as the new magnificent fall of the Assad regime in Syria demonstrates.

Russia and Iran are now learning that backing a brutal regime can strand military and economic assets when the situation unexpectedly turns. China ought to take these implications into account.

The involvement of Chinese security forces would be embarrassing for the junta because it would not be able to defend its chief ally’s economic and strategic interests even if it had one.

Additionally, it increases the junta’s dependence on China as much as it already is. China continues to be a significant military and economic partner to the junta despite Russia being the main supplier of weapons since the coup.

The Chinese security operations make it even more difficult for the opposition forces to exert control over significant economic and population centers.

And it might mean that China will now rescind its support for some of the ethnic armed groups that are fighting the junta, such as those who are the Communist Party of Burma and have ethnic Chinese roots. This could cause the opposition to shift more toward domestic small arms production.

The opposition may look to diversify its economic activity beyond smuggling or trading routes into China, which could ultimately lower China’s leverage over these individuals.

Lastly, the Chinese security forces may further entrench anti-China sentiment throughout the country. In October, for example, the Chinese consulate in Mandalay was damaged in a bombing attack.

What are the regional implications?

India will undoubtedly be concerned about these developments. In Rakhine state, which is directly across the road from India’s own massive investment projects in the country, will there be an increasing number of Chinese security forces stationed if the plans are implemented.

Bangladesh and Thailand, two of Myanmar’s other neighbors, are undoubtedly concerned about having Chinese forces on their doorstep and possibly holding meetings with Myanmar officials.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN ) will continue to demand a more inclusive political solution to the conflict, despite China’s newly gained support providing a lifeline for the junta.

They are unlikely to agree with the expansion of Chinese security forces in Myanmar.

Adam Simpson is senior lecturer of international studies, University of South Australia

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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US amphibious warfare fleet sinking into the abyss – Asia Times

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Under the mass of failing ships, fewer missions, and growing servicing overflows, the US Navy’s marine ship is sinking, threatening its fight readiness and strategic advantage in the face of China’s ascending maritime energy.

The US Navy’s amphibious warfare fleet is facing significant maintenance challenges, according to a report released this month by the US Government Accountability Office ( GAO ). This could put a strain on its operational readiness and ability to support US Marine Corps missions.

According to the GAO report, half of the 32 marine ships of the US Navy are in bad condition, with several not meeting their expected service-life expectancy as a result of delayed maintenance and aging.

It further explains that the US Navy’s decision to stop ship servicing scheduled for withdrawal has made these problems worse, leaving crucial systems like diesel engines in ruin.

Further complicating repair planning is the GAO report’s claim that the US Navy and Marine Corps are yet to come to an agreement on a certain number of ships that should be operational and trained.

The US Navy’s present plans do not help making significant investments in company life extensions, which are estimated to cost up to US$ 1 billion per ship, to maintain the legal requirement of a 31-ship fleet by 2030.

The US Navy should release its maintenance procedures to avoid unnecessary cancellation of essential maintenance, and apply metrics to identify marine ship availability goals. Without these modifications, the Navy faces a risk of continuing operating lags and lessening readiness for crucial missions, it said.

The 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit and its F-35 warrior plane were unable to be fully deployed due to the specific issues the US marine battle fleet eyes, according to The War Zone’s report this month.

Additionally, it claims that the USS America ( LHA-6 ) Amphibious Ready Group ( ARG ) had operational gaps and missed crucial exercises due to its lack of ships.

The War Zone report states that the 2020 USS Bonhomme Richard’s ( LHD-6 ) destruction due to a port fire further reduced fleet capacity. Additionally, it states that nearly 29 years of training and rollout moment were lost by the extension of 71 % of amphibious ship maintenance periods from 2010 to 2021.

Furthermore, the report states aging vessels like the 35-year-old USS Wasp ( LHD-1 ) face obsolescence issues, such as difficulties sourcing parts for outdated steam propulsion systems.

Even more recent ships, like the USS Fort Lauderdale ( LPD-28 ), have high failure rates for critical systems like the knuckle boom crane and mechanical arms for launching boats, according to the report.

The War Zone claims that these servicing issues have led to the early retirement of some boats and a queue of delayed maintenance, challenging the US Navy’s legal duty to maintain a ship of at least 31 marine ships.

Asia Times reported in April 2024 that the US Navy’s 2024 budget plan to cancel three Whidbey-class port getting ships, despite their insufficient support life, underscores the maintenance resource shortfall.

This decision aims to reallocate US$ 3 billion to more pressing needs and free up sailors for other deployments. Decommissioning without replacements is a challenge due to the legal requirement to maintain a fleet of 31 amphibious warfare ships.

The US Marine Corps has had to repurpose other ships because they lack essential amphibious warfare equipment, such as the Expeditionary Sea Base and Expeditionary Fast Transport.

The Light Amphibious Warship’s development and US Marine Corps Force Design 2030 both aim to combat contemporary threats, but these smaller ships face limitations in terms of cost-effectiveness and self-defense.

Steve Yeadon mentions in a 2020 article for the Journal of Advanced Military Studies that the traditional US force structure of 38 amphibious warfare ships, which are essential for MEU and forward-deployed Marine Expeditionary Brigades, is no longer practicable in light of new strategic priorities.

Yeadon says that calls for smaller, more numerous and risk-tolerant vessels to support distributed operations amid near-peer threats respond to the vulnerability of large, concentrated forces to precision-guided munitions.

He adds that a critical issue is training gaps, as large-scale amphibious assault training is a result of the insufficient resources for MEBs and Marine Expeditionary Forces ( MEF ) to conduct it.

Yeadon points out that the issue has grown worse as a result of US shipbuilding restrictions. Current amphibious warfare ship construction timelines—ranging from 51 to 63 months—are further strained by limited shipyard capacity and supplier constraints, making rapid wartime replacements unlikely.

He also says competing shipbuilding priorities, such as Columbia-class submarines and next-generation surface combatants, further complicate funding for amphibious warfare ship procurement.

Yeadon warns against having enough amphibious warfare ships and US maritime forces, which could result in lessening the ability to launch counterinsurgencies and distributed operations, which would put up challenges to strategic flexibility in conflicts with rival countries like China or Russia.

Contrasting sharply with the US ‘ declining amphibious warfare capabilities, Jennifer Rice mentions in the 2024 book” Chinese Amphibious Warfare: Prospects for a Cross-Strait Invasion” that the People’s Liberation Army-Navy ( PLAN ) is modernizing its amphibious fleet to support missions beyond Taiwan, reflecting a shift in China’s strategic priorities.

Rice says the PLAN’s current fleet includes eight amphibious transport docks ( LPD), two landing helicopter assault ( LHA ) ships, 30 tank landing ships ( LST ), 20 medium landing ships ( LSM) and numerous smaller landing craft.

She points out that while larger amphibious vessels like LPDs and LHAs are better suited for overseas deployments, China’s enormous shipbuilding capacity allows for a quick increase in production if necessary.

Underscoring that point, China now has the world’s largest navy, with a shipbuilding capacity 230 times larger than the US’s. This disparity means that China can build 359 oceangoing ships in a year for every ship the US builds.

Rice claims that China’s balanced force design emphasizes its dual ambitions to achieve regional dominance and global power projection in the Taiwan Strait. She explains that the PLA’s recent modernization efforts align with its wider plan to strengthen its readiness for a Taiwan invasion.

According to Rice, this strategy includes leveraging civilian vessels for logistics and amphibious landings, underscoring China’s military-civil fusion doctrine. Rice notes civilian roll-on/roll-off ( RO/RO ) ferries have participated in amphibious exercises, signaling China’s ability to mobilize commercial assets for military operations.

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Tulsi Gabbard needs a modern history lesson on Japan – Asia Times

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On December 7, 2023, Tulsi Gabbard, now President-elect&nbsp, Donald Trump’s pull as director of national intelligence, &nbsp, wrote&nbsp, on X:

As we remember Japan’s anger in the Pacific, we need to question ourselves this question: is the remilitarization of Japan, which is currently underway, really a good idea?

We need to be mindful that foolish, self-serving officials do not end up bringing us suddenly face-to-face with a remilitarized Japan.

Gabbard, a past member of the United States Congress, appears to be talking about some other Japan.

According to Richard Halloran of The New York Times, the Japanese were the worst he had ever encountered in terms of being able to “explain themselves.” That has not changed. So I did test.

Who’s scared of Japan?

Second, regarding” …the remilitarization of Japan, which is currently afoot.”. Huh? Japan militarized a long time ago. At least 50 years ago.

The Japan&nbsp, Self-Defense Force&nbsp, ( JSDF) is a quarter million strong, well-equipped, and professional. However, it poses a threat to no one because it never was and always wants to be. No president or lawmaker in Japan has ever suggested that it should be.

During a joint landing for Iron Fist 24 by the US Marine Expeditionary Unit and Japanese soldiers with the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force ( ARDB), the pair practiced with US Navy and JSDF equipment. Photo: Twitter, the 31st Marine Expeditionary System

Moreover, even if it wanted to throw its weight around, it could not accomplish much. Japan’s defense is about half the size needed to carry out all important missions – much less launch an attack on anyone.

In 2023, the JSDF missed its hiring targets by 50 %. They are frequently missed by 20 %. And it won’t get growing as the population drops. Also, there is zero political could for growth.

But what about Japan’s fresh Marine Rapid Deployment Brigade? If it could find the ships ( no sure thing ) and did not get sunk on the way, it could perhaps land 700″ Marines” on the Chinese coast. &nbsp, &nbsp,

Nothing would see. Set 700 people in a decent-sized football stadium and it would seem clear. So much for Japan threatening its companions.

It may at best establish a security strong enough to avert an attack from the Chinese, North Koreans, and Russians. But on its own, Japan has poor leads against China’s People’s Liberation Army – yet with so-called” counter-strike” potential – or&nbsp, long-range weapons.

Tokyo has no good option besides tying up with the United States and the&nbsp, US government. It has every opportunity to make the most of what it has in terms of defense and to be as effective an ally as possible. &nbsp, &nbsp,

A more effective JSDF with the ability to carry out joint activities and maintain adequate combat stocks is necessary for this. Along with integration with US troops, it also needs much better education for true combat than it does now.

And these are very much in America’s attention.

Track record of civility

Then, glance at Japan’s post-war record report. And keep in mind that the conflict ended 80 years earlier. Since then, nearly four centuries have been born.

Japan has been a compassionate, consensus-based democracy since 1945 and has remained steadfast in its support of the US and the West. The world’s largest donation of foreign aid is Tokyo. Immense Asian business and investment in the&nbsp, Indo-Pacific&nbsp, and international are welcomed and sought after.

More nations like Japan may be needed.

Japan has apologized and tried to repent for&nbsp, World War II. Yes, &nbsp, South Korea&nbsp, and&nbsp, China&nbsp, say they are angry, though the hatred is generally stoked for political get.

But, Japan is also regarded in most of Asia. Perhaps that, the battle is a distant storage. Also regarded? Let’s get down the list.

Taiwan? Japan is well-liked. &nbsp, &nbsp, How about the&nbsp, Philippines? The equal.

Vietnam&nbsp, and&nbsp, Indonesia? Japan and Japan both merit praise for removing the imperial yoke. Thailand? Excellent relationships. Malaysia? Similar issue. &nbsp, Bangladesh&nbsp, and Burma? Great relationships.

Australia? Willing to allow bygones to become bygones despite the Imperial Japanese Army‘s horrifying remedy of American prisoners of war. Pacific island nations? Japan is regarded as a companion and has strong ties to Japan. &nbsp, &nbsp,

And the great one, &nbsp, India. Ties are excellent, and in some respect, the India-Japan marriage is deeper than the Japan-US marriage, at least at the elite-to-elite levels. India also considers Japan to be a good neighbor for supporting Indian patriots seeking independence from Great Britain.

At the Japan-India Summit Meeting in June 2024, former prime minister Fumio Kishida and previous prime minister Narendra Modi. Photo: Prime Minister’s Office of Japan

More friends like Japan

Do you think Tulsi Gabbard isn’t up to date with Japan, or what? No really. She is fresh enough to understand. She may be straightened if she had a two-page briefing papers or ten minutes with a subject matter expert or someone who was open to the idea.

And she is not the second person to misinterpret Japan. Marine Lieutenant General Hank Stackpole’s” cork in the bottle” &nbsp, comment &nbsp, ( that the American forces in Japan were what kept Japan from going on the rampage ) was wrong, even when he said it in 1990.

Senior officials at USINOPACOM resisted the idea of an aquatic ready Japan until recently. Who knows what these Chinese people will do? Yes, that 700-man power that may destroy Asia.

One also encounters persons in the US government and military who are unaware that the Japanese of the 1930s share the same values as the Danes of the Vikings who carved their names in the Hagia Sophia.

Japan is a danger to anyone. It has a lot of international effect and is a fortress of good, consensus-based government and personal independence in Northeast Asia. More of these friends and a stronger Japan Self-Defense Force should be what the US wants.

If you want to worry about “remilitarization”, only look across the&nbsp, East China Sea&nbsp, at the&nbsp, People’s Republic of China.

Grant Newsham, a resigned US Marine captain, is the creator of&nbsp,” When China Attacks: A Warning to America”.

This article first appeared on JAPAN Forward, and it has since been republished with kind consent. Read the original around.

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US scrambling to close hypersonic airpower gap with China – Asia Times

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A major US general has urged that the next-generation B-21 Raider fighter be produced more quickly and effectively in order to compete with China’s fast airpower advancements and respond to rapidly changing threats. However, an expanding fast weapons squalor may be affecting China’s air power harmony.

This month, FlightGlobal reported that US Air Force General Thomas Bussiere, captain of the International Strike Command, has called for a readjustment of the planned ship dimension of Northrop Grumman-made B-21 Raider planes.

Bussiere emphasized the crucial part of the B-21, which is scheduled to take the place of the aging Boeing B-1B and Northrop B-2 aircraft, during a speech at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. The B-21 was hailed as” the most exquisite weapons program ever constructed,” according to Bussiere. It is now undergoing journey testing, and a mid-2020s start should be expected.

Bussiere suggests that the USAF’s existing program is to purchase 100 B-21s in order to meet the demands of evolving political issues. He cited the USAF’s bomb fleet’s high demand for fight operations and proper deterrence, which includes the upgraded B-52J.

Bussiere also made an observation that earlier assessments suggested 220 aircraft were necessary, and that these estimates may need to be updated in light of the state of the security situation right now.

However, due to B-21 production difficulties, the designed number of next-generation aircraft have been scaled down, making it necessary for the US to maintain older bombers in service for longer than originally planned.

In spite of difficulties in B-21 output, the US Air Force upgraded its B-2 Spirit cunning planes with cutting-edge program in July 2024, according to Asia Times.

The new open missions systems ( OMS ) software, developed in collaboration with the Air Force Global Strike Command and the B-2 Systems Program Office, significantly shortens the time between updating and two years, allowing for more quickly the integration of new weapons and ongoing improvements.

The upgrade, known as Spirit Realm 1 ( SR 1 ), includes better displays, flight hardware and survivability enhancements to keep the B-2 relevant until the B-21 becomes operational.

The B-2 ship, now numbering 19 plane, remains the US Air Force’s even piercing bomb until the B-21 reaches first functional capability. The B-2’s modernization includes the deployment of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range ( JASSM-ER ), enhancing the plane’s strike capabilities.

The US Air Force is considerably upgrading its B-52 bomber fleet, according to an article in Asia Times from June 2024, making the Warm War-era aircraft a cutting-edge warplane capable of retaliating against near-peer threats, especially from China.

The upgrades include enhanced engines, a digital cockpit, active electronically scanned array ( AESA ) radar, modernized avionics, enhanced pylons, electronic warfare capabilities and state-of-the-art weapon systems.

Designated for the B-52J type, the modifications aim to prolong the plane’s support life into the 2050s, operating alongside the B-21. The new motors, good Rolls-Royce F130s, claim cost savings, increased trip time and reduced reform needs.

The AN/APG-79 sensor may increase situational awareness and electronic war capabilities, while fresh communication suites will allow networked battle integration. The B-52J will also be armed with fast arms and other sophisticated weapons, drastically boosting its attack skills.

Despite these improvements, the B-52J eyes delays. Preliminary operational capacity is now anticipated in 2033 as a result of financing shortfalls and price increases in the sensor modernization program.

China is continuously improving its fighter force at the same time. In its 2023 China Military Power Report, the US Department of Defense ( DOD ) notes China’s bomber modernization has shifted from aging Soviet-era designs to a potent, multi-role strike capability.

According to the report, China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force ( PLAAF ) has significantly upgraded its H-6 bomber fleet, which is based on the Soviet Tu-16.

Standoff ammunition and more effective turbofan engines have been added to new variations, such as the H-6K, making it possible to strike from the Second Island Chain, a chain of islands that extends from Japan through Guam and Palau to West Papua, Indonesia.

The 2023 China Military Power Report says the maritime-focused H-6J can have six YJ-12 anti-ship boat missiles, giving it a powerful anti-ship position.

However, it notes that the most significant development is the H-6N, a nuclear-capable, air-to-air refuellable bomb capable of carrying air-launched ballistic missiles ( ALBMs), which perhaps have agile rehabilitation vehicles and revives the flying leg of China’s nuclear triad with precision strike capability against possible Indo-Pacific targets.

In addition to the H-6 and its variants, the PLAAF is looking into a next-generation H-20 stealth fighter, according to the report. It mentions that Chinese state media speculates that it will play both regular and nuclear roles, expanding China’s electricity projection far beyond its borders.

But, a new fighter potential difference may be emerging between the US and China. The emerging bomb difference is related to fast weapons features, in contrast to the Cold War bomb space, which focused on a perceived lack of US bombers against the Soviet Union.

An April 2023 RAND report that while the US has an overmatch in aviation capabilities, it does not have a clear lead in hypersonic strike capabilities. According to the report, the country’s dependence on bomber and fighter air-to-ground weapons for long-range strikes and its projected firepower globally may contribute to this capability gap.

Asia Times reported in October 2024 that the US Air Force’s hypersonic missile program, specifically the AGM-183 Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon ( ARRW), is at a critical juncture. Despite previous claims of its cancellation due to poor test results, it is now receiving new funding.

The US Air Force recently awarded Lockheed Martin an additional$ 13.4 million for the ARRW, raising the contract’s total value to over$ 1.3 billion. This funding could either signal the end of the ARRW or the resumption of a related follow-on program, the Tactical Boost Glide ( TBG).

The ARRW, a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle ( HGV ), is designed to counter heavily defended, high-value targets but has faced repeated testing failures, leading to delays and budget cuts. In the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, the US Senate and House of Representatives requested$ 150 million for its continued development.

Despite these setbacks, the program continues with planned flight tests, driven by rising concerns over China’s hypersonic capabilities. The US Air Force is also looking into the possibility of developing more affordable and adaptable solutions for air-breathing hypersonic weapons, such as the Hypersonic Air-Breathing Weapon Concept ( HAWC), which have not yet been proven.

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Al-Golani: New face of Syria has million bounty on his head – Asia Times

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Who speaks for Syrians now that President Bashar al-Assad’s concept has come to an end after 50 years of brutal royal rule?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which led the opposition improve that toppled Assad under the command of Abu Mohammad al-Golani, is one organization making a significant say to that position.

But what does the organization represent? And who is al-Golani? The Conversation turned to Sara Harmouch, an analyst on Islamist violent parties, for answers.

What is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham?

The Syrian civil war, which started in 2011 as a famous revolt against the Assad regime, is where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is from.

The organization was founded as an outgrowth of the Nusra Front, Syria’s established al-Qaida online. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was immediately praised for its fight effectiveness, commitment to international jihadist ideology, and support for tight Islamic rule in the Muslim world.

The Nusra Front officially ended relations with al-Qaida in a 2016 move by adopting the new title Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, which means” Front for the Conquest of the Levant.”

It merged with a number of other Arab parties the next year to be Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or the” Organization for the Independence of the Levant.”

This marketing aimed to walk away from al-Qaida’s international jihadist plan, which had limited the group’s charm within Syria. It allowed Hayat Tahrir al-Sham to focus on problems specific to Syria, such as local governance, financial troubles and humanitarian assistance.

Despite these changes, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s fundamental philosophy is still rooted in jihadism with the main goal being to overthrow the Assad government and establish Muslim law in Syria.

Who is al-Golani? How main is he to the team’s success?

Abu Mohammed al-Golani was born Ahmed al-Sharaa in 1982 in Saudi Arabia.

Al-Golani spent his early centuries in Damascus, Syria, after his family returned from Saudi Arabia in 1989. His ideology career began in Iraq, where he joined soldiers aligned with al-Qaida after the 2003 US-led war.

In 2011, under the path of Iraqi extremist and then-al-Qaida in Iraq head Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, al-Golani was tasked with establishing the Nusra Front in Syria.

Within the Syrian civil war, the party quickly developed into a formidable power.

It was under al-Golani’s command that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham sought to present itself as rational, less focused on global terrorism and more on governance concerns in the region of Idlib, Syria’s largest insurgent enclave.

This change in strategy is a result of al-Golani’s effort to change the perception of his as a jihadist head into a more politically viable determine in Palestinian politics.

Al-Golani’s change toward a more logical approach, especially post-2017, has been crucial in helping Hayat Tahrir al-Sham power territories and proclaim itself as a local governing pressure.

His latest actions, such as adopting a more reasonable image and engaging in conventional public service, reflect al-Golani’s key role in the defense and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s political evolution, which both support the organization’s efforts to regain legitimacy both locally and internationally.

Men hand out of a car saluting to a nearby crowd.
Syria celebrate the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad following military demonstrations led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Photo: Omer Alven / Anadolu via Getty Images/ The Talk

How did the organization rise to power in Syria?

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham used a variety of tactics to maintain control over the lands it controlled, including establishing management systems that could provide security and services while promoting their legitimacy in the eye of local populations.

The team’s leaders came to the conclusion that it needed to win over the international community in order to reduce international criticism and properly collaborate with the broader Arab innovative motion. They were trying to expand and get more territory.

Working with different Syrian actors was a part of this effort to create a more appealing entry for international observers and potential allies. To do that directly, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham brought some groups within Syria under its power. Locally and abroad, it reshaped its image through open relationships campaigns, such as engaging in social solutions.

Idlib, which was the last big fortress for various rebel groups since 2017, has been the dominant power there since Hayat Tahrir al-Sham retakes control of Aleppo after government forces retake control of the city in December 2016.

Despite reports of human rights violations, the organization has since strengthened its grip in the area by acting as a quasi-governmental body, providing legal services, and overseeing native matters, such as collecting responsibilities on commercial trucking and controlling highways.

In recent years, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s advertising has focused on defending Syria’s individuals from the Assad government. This has improved the organization’s standing among local people and different rebel parties.

In an effort to further shine its picture, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ramped up its public relations work, both at home and abroad. For instance, it has partnered with global media and charitable organizations to discuss and document aid deliveries to the regions it governs.

By demonstrating this, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham gained some local support, establishing itself as a proponent of Sunni Muslim pursuits.

In addition, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham strengthened its military might by creating professional forces capable of carrying out coordinated and proper attacks. They did so by creating a military academy, restructuring its units, and establishing a more conventional military structure. The latest advancement appears to be evidence that this method has worked.

What does the US consider of the group and al-Golani?

Al-Golani and the Nusra Front have been designated as separate international criminal organizations by the US for a while.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was included in the US State Department’s expansion of this title in May 2018. As a result of these classifications, the team and its users face legal restrictions, travel bans, resource freezes and bank restrictions.

Also, the State Department’s Benefits for Justice system is offering up to US$ 10 million for details on al-Golani.

However, it has been reported that the US is considering dropping the$ 10 million bounty on the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham leader, while the UK is considering dropping the organization from its terror list.

What happens if al-Golani emerges as a post-Assad head?

Initially, we should notice that these are very first time, and it remains unclear what Syria will look like post-Assad.

However, based on my years of study of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and Muslim record, I’m willing to make some educated guesses. Generally, Islamic empires have used different governance frameworks to push their expansion and administration, which may tell Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s approach to mirroring these powerful strategies.

Second, I believe al-Golani will make an effort to establish a true spiritual management, positioning himself as a leader whose piety and adherence to Islamic principles are in line with the general opinion of the populace.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham may add more depth by highlighting the significance of Sunni Islam in Syria’s express features and incorporating spiritual legal practices into the country’s rules.

Successful management may be a pillar of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham management, just as it has been established on a localized level. In Idlib, for instance, the group established methods for taxes and society wedding. This is crucial for fostering trust, particularly among recently underrepresented groups.

Also, by allowing some independence for areas within Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham may lessen the risk of unrest, balancing tight Muslim law enforcement with Syria’s cultural and ethnic diversity.

In general, we might anticipate a governance system that aims for a blend of traditional Islamic governance and modern statecraft, attempting to unify and stabilize the diverse and war-torn nation, under the leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and al-Golani.

However, the group’s contentious status and history of militant activities could present significant difficulties in gaining widespread international support and recognition.

Sara Harmouch is a PhD candidate in public affairs, American University

This article was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Trump’s BRICS ultimatum won’t deter de-dollarization – Asia Times

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The US President-elect is undoubtedly concerned about what the BRICS countries might have in business for the US dollar as Donald Trump prepares for a second term in the White House.

And, not surprisingly, Trump is threatening big-time fines for any hint of de-dollarization among Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and the grouping’s novel people, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Trump recently posted to his Truth Social system, saying that the notion that the BRICS countries are trying to walk away from the money while we watch and watch is over.

We demand a commitment from these nations that they won’t create a new BRICS money, nor will they support any other money to replace the powerful US money, or that they will be subject to 100 % tariffs, and that they should anticipate saying goodbye to selling into the wonderful US market.

Never simply a delightful bed from the Trump 2.0 group. Trump’s affected tariffs on the BRICS may only serve as fuel for the” International South” to look for or develop a buck alternative.

According to Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG Research, it’s unclear how 100 % tariffs on a group of nations that make up 37 % of global GDP would actually occur.

Additionally, it’s unclear how the BRICS’ sky-high taxes would benefit the world’s largest economy. But as Deutsche Bank argues, Trump’s preoccupation with a powerful money appears greater than ever.

” This seems to further show that money strength is an concern for the new leadership, unlike Trump 1.0″, when the US took a less ambitious approach, Deutsche researchers wrote.

Development countries have plenty of reason to be concerned about the dollars with US government debt exceeding US$ 36 trillion and Trump countering enormous budget-busting tax cuts. Washington, after all, only has one AAA record score left — from Moody’s Investors Service.

Morgan Stanley, for one, is advising that it might be time to sell the dollars. According to scientist David Adams,” a lot of the great news for the USD” has already been priced, with the majority of them having “largely internalized the US outperformance storyline” based on Trump’s pledges to impose their tax and trade policies. Businesses, though, may become “overestimating the rate, depth and scale” of those swings.

” We sense investment attitude on the whole is very productive on the franc, suggesting asymmetrical risks for a’ problems trade,’ in the months ahead”, Adams noted.

Trump World has made it clear the US Federal Reserve’s democracy, a key component in global confidence in the greenback, is also on the board come January. The” Project 2025″ system that his Democratic party cooked up for Trump 2.0 includes treatments for curbing the Fed’s much-vaunted freedom.

The Fed almost escaped Trump 1.0 unhurt. Trump placed the pressure on his hand-picked Fed Chairman Jerome Powell first and frequently during his first term in office, which spanned from 2017 to 2021.

Trump attacked the Powell-led Fed in statements, press events and on social media. Trump also mulled firing Powell. The Fed started adding liquidity to an business that didn’t have any additional assistance in the same year.

In October, Trump mocked Powell’s policy staff over. ” I think it’s the greatest job in government”, Trump told Bloomberg. Everyone talks about you like a god when you say, “let’s say turn a gold,” and you show up to the office once a month.

But&nbsp, Trump&nbsp, even defends the right of the leader to persuade the Fed into lowering costs. In August, Trump said,” the Federal Reserve&nbsp, is a very fascinating thing and it’s sort of gotten it wrong a bunch”.

Trump added,” I feel the leader should have at least stayed there, yeah. I feel that clearly. I think that, in my situation, I made a lot of money. I was extremely prosperous. And I believe I have a better impulse than those who, in many cases, may become chairman of the Federal Reserve.

For Asian officials and politicians, it’s a truly personalized abuse on the Fed’s position. The largest US Treasury supplies ever held by Eastern central bankers are held by the world’s largest central banks. Japan only holds$ 1.1 trillion&nbsp, of US loan, China$ 770-plus billion.

More broadly, Asia’s largest holders of dollars are sitting on about$ 3 trillion worth. It all implies that a Trump 2.0 administration would put a lot of Asian state success in danger.

Actually so, Trump is trying to wrench up tariff-induced problems for any country — or economic bloc — brave to champion a penny alternative.

The coming Treasury Department, however, was apply currency manipulation charges, trade controls or levies on trade beyond anything Trump has previously suggested or announced.

Trump appears to be prepared to punish allies who look to conduct bilateral trade in currencies other than the dollar, as well as adversaries. In March, Trump told CNBC that he “would not allow countries to go off the dollar”, as it would be” a hit to our country”.

Yet de-dollarization has moved to the center of the BRICS agenda, particularly since the grouping’s 2023 summit. Both Trump’s and US President Joe Biden’s fingerprints are present in this backlash.

Trump’s meddling with the Fed, hints at defaulting on US debt, and fiscal excesses affected dollar perceptions significantly. When Fitch Ratings revoked Washington’s AAA status, it&nbsp, cited the Capitol Hill chaos on&nbsp, January&nbsp, 6, 2021, as a “reflection of the deterioration in governance” imperiling US finances.

Biden-led efforts to impose economic sanctions on Russia, including accusations of “weaponizing” the dollar, exacerbated the problem.

” The United States ‘ ability to hobble Russia to this extent, without firing a shot, highlights the sovereignty of the United States and the dollar in the global economy”, argues George Pearkes, an analyst at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center.

” In this case”, Pearkes noted,” sovereignty is the degree to which a currency issuer can dictate the use of that currency”. But, he added,” by using the power of dollar sovereignty, dollar sovereignty risks endangering the reserve status, which allows it to be weaponized”.

To be sure, Pearkes noted that “aggressive use of dollar weaponization has been signaled repeatedly by US policymakers to achieve US goals in the current Ukraine dispute.”

Although this would have a significant impact on Russia, he noted that “negative feedback on dollar sovereignty will be measured in decades rather than years— and will unavoidably come.”

According to Pearkes,” the ability to restrict access to financial markets is significantly more powerful than it has historically been.” What’s more, he noted,” the weaponized dollar” was “already a fact of life in global affairs” before Russia invaded Ukraine.

Pearkes noted that” the governments of Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Venezuela can all attest to that fact, as can their civilian populations. In all four countries, dollar sovereignty has been weaponized in a contemporary context”.

Trump is, however, steadfast in his desire to avoid the risk that the Global South might lose the dollar. &nbsp,

There is no way the BRICS will ever replace the US dollar in global trade, and any nation trying should wave goodbye to America, Trump said via social media.

Trump has recently shook markets with plans to impose 25 % tariffs on Canada and Mexico as well as additional levies on China up and above the 60 % he has already threatened.

Curiously, Trump said he’s had contact with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in recent days. Over the weekend, Trump told NBC that “we’ve had communication”.

At the Group of 20 summit in Japan in June 2019, Trump and Xi had their final in-person meeting. Trump stated to NBC,” I had an agreement with President Xi, who I got along with very well.

Still, Trump World is clearly steeling for a Trade War 2.0 with Xi’s Communist Party. Last week, Trump buttressed his” Tariff Man” street cred by naming uber-China hawk Peter Navarro as his top trade adviser. Navarro, &nbsp, who in 2011 co-authored a book titled” Death by China”, rarely misses a chance to accuse Xi’s party of “robbing us blind”.

Trump also appointed aggressive China critic Marco Rubio as secretary of state, and padded his next trade negotiations team with extremists like Jamieson Greer and Robert Lighthizer.

Trump 2.0’s supporters contend that tariffs are merely a tactic used to bring Xi’s party to consensus. Yet Xi’s inner circle seems unsure of Trump’s sincerity concerning a new “grand bargain” trade deal.

Case in point: Beijing’s move to limit the sales of key components used to build drones to the US and Europe. While bad news for Ukraine’s defense against Russia, it also serves as a sign of upcoming broader export restrictions.

China also opened an investigation into US chipmaker Nvidia this week following concerns that the business might have violated its anti-monopoly laws. This is also being interpreted as a sign of targeted Chinese trade war retaliation measures. Nvidia is at the center of Nvidia’s efforts to rule the artificial intelligence market.

Earlier this year, the BRICS added Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to its ranks.

Mariel Ferragamo, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, said,” The addition of Egypt and Ethiopia will amplify voices from the African continent.” Egypt also shared close political ties with Russia and close business ties with China and India. As a new BRICS member, Egypt seeks to&nbsp, attract more investment&nbsp, and improve its battered economy”.

According to Ferragamo,” the addition of Saudi Arabia and the UAE would bring in the Arab world’s two biggest economies, as well as the second and eighth top oil producers globally.”

Yet the most powerful connector among BRICS members, old and new, is stepping out of Washington’s financial orbit. As such,” we think the bloc&nbsp, has &nbsp, the most potential to forward its de-dollarization agenda in&nbsp, FX reserves and fuel trade”, said Chris Turner, global markets head at ING Bank.

Turner noted that the BRICS bloc controls 42 % of global central bank currency reserves, likely contributing to the global de-dollarization process.

The BRICS is “gaining more and more visibility as a trade partner for other emerging markets, particularly in the fuel trade,” adding that it is “gaining more and more ground in regional trade.” BRICS accounts for 37 % of the EM fuel trade, a key area of interest for de-dollarization”, he said.

The BRICS , Turner noted, “is actively de-dollarizing its financial flows from above-average levels, as seen through declining shares of US dollar in their cross-border bank claims, international debt securities, and broader external debt”.

The BRICS , according to Turner, “has a much smaller global presence in those areas that limits the impact of its regional de-dollarization on the global role of the US dollar.”

Even so, the BRICS are causing the dollar to pivot, despite Trump’s efforts to stifle the process. Perhaps the better course of action would be to improve the US financial system.

But that seems unlikely as Trump eyes additional multi-trillion-dollar tax cuts sure to push America’s national debt toward an eye-watering$ 40 trillion over the next four years.

Trump may also be using the reserve currency to defy de-dollarization advocates. With the BRICS cast playing the role of a spoiler, the dollar will likely be a major battleline in the Trump 2.0 era.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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Rocket fuel eating away at US, China nuclear weapons – Asia Times

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A new record that exposes the ticking time bomb inside both US and Chinese missiles suggests that aging jet energy may be slowly crippling the nation’s nuclear arsenals.

South China Morning Post (SCMP ) reported this month that Chinese rocket scientists have discovered that the solid fuel used in intercontinental ballistic missiles ( ICBMs) ages much more quickly than previously thought, potentially making hundreds of missiles unusable.

Major changes in the fuel columns that can happen within the next 30 years, making them unable to resist the loads during flight, were discovered in China’s National Key Laboratory of Solid Rocket Propulsion in Xian. This finding might explain the regular launch failures that some nuclear powers have experienced in recent years.

The older engineer Qin Pengju led the study, which revealed that while the aged propellant appeared stable during regular storage, it quickly became considerably more brittle when under high pressure. It mentions that the research focused on the solid fuel commonly used in ICBMs: ammonium perchlorate, aluminum powder and hydroxyl-terminated polybutadiene ( HTPB) binder.

According to SCMP, the study’s results suggest that after just 27 years, the battery’s flexibility may be compromised, leading to potential fast fractures during launch. It notes that the topic has raised questions about the US’s declining nuclear deterrent capacity, which relies on Trident II weapons and Minuteman III weapons from the 1970s.

A Minuteman III ICBM check that went wrong in November 2023 may have heightened concerns about the US’s aging land-based nuclear army, perhaps as an example of the instability of aging ICBMs. According to an anomaly, the unarmed weapon was launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base.

While the Minuteman III as a whole is nonetheless considered a reliable arms structure, its subcomponents, such as the container, technology and weapon, are outdated and may have been neglected.

As delays and price shortfalls plague its next-generation LGM-35A Sentinel system, according to a report from Asia Times that the US is under increasing pressure to replace its aging Minuteman III ICBMs.

Budgeted first at US$ 95.8 billion, the Sentinel’s price has surged to an estimated$ 160 billion, forcing the Pentagon to support the raise under the Nunn-McCurdy Amendment. According to Covid-19 disruptions and prices, generation delays have postponed its implementation until 2029. As a result, the US Air Force has stretch Minuteman II I’s duration.

In addition to outdated delivery methods, Asia Times reported in January 2024 that the US’s proper barrier is severely hampered by the country’s aging of uranium mines in US nuclear arms. Despite plutonium’s 24, 000-year half-life, micro changes over time can impact the backup protection and violent yield of nuclear arms.

The US National Nuclear Security Administration ( NNSA ) has struggled to build new plutonium pits, with the goal of 80 pits per year unanticipated until 2030 or later. This gap is attributed to a post-Cold War tradition of apathy, a lack of skilled workers and limiting environmental rules.

Existing mines, designed for older arms, does not perform as required in newer techniques, raising concerns about the stability of the US nuclear arsenal.

Keeping the 1970s-era Minuteman III poses major problems. Lauren Caston and other authors claim that the aging equipment and components that require ongoing development are essential to keeping the aging Minuteman III in company in a February 2014 RAND statement.

Caston and others make the claim that while the Minuteman III Service Life Extension Program ( SLEP ) aims to replace crucial subsystems like guidance and propulsion with incremental modernization, the obsolescence of the original manufacturing processes and materials, which makes it necessary to rely on more expensive, contemporary alternatives.

Another major operational requirement is the monthly check firing charge, which accelerated after 2017, when the price increased from three to four tests per year, due to the depletion of missile inventory. Without boosting new production, they claim that America’s missile stockpile could fall below the required operational levels by 2030.

Parth Satam mentions in a July 2024 article for The Aviationist that it is much less expensive to extend the Minuteman II I’s life until 2050 because previous renovations cost only$ 7 billion for 450 missiles, as the US struggles to keep the Minuteman III in service while defending the Sentinel’s ballooning costs.

Satam points out that maintaining these outdated systems is technically challenging due to outdated documentation and a lack of skilled technicians. He contrasts that to the Sentinel program, despite its$ 140 billion price tag and cost overruns, promising a modern, cyber-defendable command and control system.

Satam says the US Department of Defense’s ( DOD ) projected lifetime for the Sentinel, set up to 2075, is arbitrary and inflates costs. He claims that a more flexible timeline could increase the viability of the Minuteman III extension. However, he cautions about the risks of not modernizing, citing the need to address emerging threats from nuclear-armed competitors like China and Russia.

However, he notes the Sentinel’s development could also strain budgets, potentially impacting other key defense programs such as the Next-Generation Air Dominance ( NGAD ) fighter and B-21 Raider stealth bomber.

In light of growing threats from nuclear rivals, reliability and deterrence are in doubt as a result of this situation. China and Russia have aggressively modernized their nuclear arsenals, further compounding the US’s strategic quandary as Russia exhibits nuclear brinkmanship in the Ukraine war and China ramps up fissile material production.

While liquid-fuel systems may avoid problems associated with solid fuel, they bring challenges such as difficult-to-store propellants, design complexity, which opens up more points of possible failure, and the need to be fueled before launch, unlike solid-fuel missiles.

To illustrate these problems, Sidharth Kaushal mentions in an October 2024 Royal United Services Institute ( RUSI) article that Russia’s efforts to replace the aging liquid-fuel R-36 Satan ICBM with the RS-28 Sarmat have faced significant challenges, highlighting issues within its missile production sector.

According to Kaushal, the recent catastrophic failure of the Sarmat test in September 2024 highlights these difficulties. He notes that the failure, likely due to propulsion issues, caused extensive damage to the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.

He points out that since its development in 2013 the Sarmat, which was meant to replace the Soviet-era R-36, has experienced numerous delays and technical issues. These setbacks are a result of the lighter structure and complexity of the new system’s propulsion system.

Additionally, he mentions that the collapse of Russia’s cooperation with Ukrainian contractors, who previously maintained the R-36, has exacerbated the situation. He claims that Russia’s reliance on its Makeyev Rocket Design Bureau for the Sarmat’s development has not completely resolved these issues.

Kaushal points out that the RS-28’s troubled history, including multiple failed tests and delays, raises concerns about the reliability of Russia’s silo-based ICBMs, which are crucial for its strategic deterrence. However, he says that despite these challenges, the Sarmat has been accepted into service, reflecting the urgency of replacing the R-36.

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Syria’s Islamist militias will listen if engaged – Asia Times

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The world was informed on Sunday ( December 8 ), suggesting that it had stopped believing that anything was possible. The violent government of Syria’s leader, Bashar al-Assad, is gone and the Syrian civil war may become coming to an end after 13 years of suffering.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham ( HTS), an armed Islamist group with headquarters in Idlib in the north of Syria, seized the city of Damascus in just a few days, overrunning Aleppo and Homs and finally capturing Damascus. Assad, however, is reported to have fled with his home to Moscow.

The most positive observers see this as a chance for peace. Syria’s several armed factions are now finally being toppled, his main allies Russia and Iran are cooperating elsewhere, and a delicate calm is beginning to emerge between them.

Some warn that the subsequent vacuum could cause a continuation of erratic violence, similar to that which has plagued Libya since Muammar Gaddafi’s regime was overthrown and killed in 2011.

What did come last will depend just as much on the international rights as those in Syria. In 2013, I spent time in Syria chatting with members of the various organizations that merged into HTS, including the Palestinian al-Qaeda online. Armed groups like Units tend to listen when the global community tries to engage with them, as I learned from speaking with them.

A number of Islamist-backed organizations in northern Syria, including the Palestinian affiliates of al-Qaeda, known as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, united in the formation of HTS in 2017. Units had previously been pushed into a spot in the Idlib area. Despite being attacked by a government supported by Russian warplanes and Hezbollah fighters, it endured tenacious resistance.

Syria is at a crossroads and has many options open up. Some folks point to HTS’s Islamic roots. The earth has been attempting to stop this terrible situation since 2011 by a radical Islamist party coming to power in Syria.

Some claim that the organization has shifted away from its more extreme roots. Al-Qaeda was disbanded in 2016 as a result of Jabhat Fateh al-Sham’s decision to merge with various organizations to shape HTS.

Additionally, HTS has recently attempted to promote a more reasonable image and even promote religious tolerance. If its promises are to be believed, it may attempt to create a secure and peaceful Syria.

The activities of various nations that seek to engage Units and its affiliates will be crucial in shaping Syria’s future. My studies suggests that, at times, they will utilize shifts as a result of such speech. Organizations that have previously abused the laws of war does respond to global pressure and alter their behavior.

They will also, at periods, respond favorably to relationship by taking part in discussions and conflict resolution. But when ostracised, isolated or ignored, these organizations may do the exact same.

I spoke with a number of the various rebel groups while I was in Syria, and one thing I noticed was how ignored they were by the global society. A common from the Free Syrian Army, which was a partnership of rebel rebels that the US supported, complained about the challenges of upholding international humanitarian law without international support.

Islamist group soldiers criticized the duplicity of international companies. When they attempted to talk to governments and organizations, they were forced to unite with more moderate parties. In an effort to foster stronger global ties, an Islamic State captain actually asked me to send positive messages to my friends and family.

It would be wrong to completely agree with armed parties when they asserted a need for peaceful coexistence. But by the same coin, ignoring them wholly is unlikely to stop the fighting.

Is harmony possible?

It may be simpler to explain how we got to this point than to predict what will happen next. Assad’s government has long been propped up by its friends. Units saw an opportunity and seized it as Hezbollah and Iran were both reeling from their fight with Israel and Russia.

Although some are expressing gratitude for the ineffectiveness of the Russian and Persian interventions in Syria, it is doubtful that either country’s effect there will end. New developments could also bring the two closer together in cooperation that might include markets of weapons technologies or interventions abroad.

No nation may merely abandon their goals in Syria. For example, Russia has geopolitical air and naval bases there that are essential for the Kremlin to establish influence in the Middle East, the Mediterranean, and Africa. Russia does certainly give up on these quickly.

Turkey, a long supporter of HTS, seems to be in a solid position to influence activities. This may include pressing its advantage in its continued assault against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces ( SDF) in Syria’s northeast.

Although the SDF are merely National friends, it is doubtful that Donald Trump’s immediate foregoing of them in 2019 has been forgotten. Turkey used a power pump as justification for the US president’s decision to withdraw US military troops from Syria to launch an offensive against the Syrian Kurds.

The future of Kurdish freedom may, therefore, been in fear, though the battle-hardened SDF will likely not go down without a struggle.

How Syria’s HTS-controlled relationship with the Trump presidency is still a mystery. However, it’s difficult to imagine Trump becoming friends with Units, an armed party with historical links to Islamists, despite the fact that it’s unlikely that there will be more American involvement on the ground.

Meanwhile, Israel has seized temporary command of a demilitarized cushion zone in Syrian-controlled sections of the Golan Heights. Some apprehensions about a potential increase in fight there are expressed by some. Refugees living in five settlements close to the occupied places have been warned by the Israeli military to” remain home.” Additionally, some schools have switched to online groups in response to turmoil.

HTS is at the middle of these events in Syria, which have profound effects on the nation and the location. The group’s ability to hold onto power in Syria is still uncertain, and if so, what kind of program they will try to establish.

The regional and global powers ‘ responses may be crucial at this time, when partnering with HTS is crucial if the chance for peace is to be exploited.

William Plowright is associate professor in global stability, Durham University

This content was republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original content.

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Sandbagging Trump: obstacles galore to a Ukraine deal – Asia Times

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US President-elect&nbsp, Donald Trump begrudgingly met with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky&nbsp, and French President Emanuel Macron in Paris to explore the way forward in Ukraine.

Zelensky is already jittery about any agreements he might have made, even though Trump claims to have persuaded him to continue with the agreements with Russia. A peace and dialogue are neither Macron’s desires, sometimes.

The Trump strategy for Ukraine is simple but full of munitions. Trump, to put it simply, proposes a ceasefire and negotiations and anticipates that Ukraine will formally lose some of its place to Russia. So far as can be determined, Trump has not yet talked to Putin.

When a territorial agreement is reached, there will be some kind of cushion area and some soldiers from France, Germany, and the UK serving as soldiers ( which Russia about certainly won’t agree to ). In some fashion, Ukraine will withdraw itself from any concern for NATO membership, possibly for a period of time ( anywhere from five to 20 times ).

What will be said by the Russians? As long as Russian troops are stationed on Belarusian territory, the Russians are unlikely to agree to a ceasefire. Putin, hence, will demand their expulsion from Kursk.

Due to Trump, the US/Ukrainian location is that Kursk is a negotiation device, and it seems that Ukrainians want to sell Kursk for Russian-held Ukrainian territory.

Russia has reclaimed a large portion of the land it previously held in Kursk. Image: X Screengrab

The Russians have now reclaimed about 50 % to 60 % of the Kursk territory that the AFU ( Armed Force of Ukraine ) initially seized. However, Ukraine has continued to undertake significant resources to the area, which means that it will take time to finally dislodge the AFU.

In this context, AFU deaths in Kursk, according to the Russians, are approaching 40, 000, with large losses of tools and weapons. There are no credible reports, but Russian casualties may become higher as well.

Putin’s options are either ( 1 ) to continue the Kursk counter-offensive, possibly increasing the number of troops and firepower, or ( 2 ) to accept that taking back all of Kursk is too costly in manpower and material, leading to a ceasefire in place.

Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, can be expected to follow solution one, but with a secret timetable that could take one or two months to complete the counter-offensive.

It is important to point out that there has been conflict between the Russian military, which hasn’t always had the same level of political enthusiasm as Russia’s, or who has not been as capable as privately advertised.

Socially speaking, Putin is not in good condition. He is tying up his outposts in Syria, but it could blow up anytime. No one can predict the exact design or goals of the new Syrian state.

Putin’s regional failure ( throwing most of his eggs into the Iranian-Hezbollah-Syrian basket ) has weakened Russian prestige. Another bad choices, such as the North Koreans or Chinese, even are fraught with small and long-term difficulties, some of which can be managed but not all.

What will happen if Kim Jong Un’s government crumbles or China experiences a tense financial problems? Putin has some possibilities, but a significant change in Russia’s national surveillance strategy may be required to proceed from here. Trump may see an opening ok, right?

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin ( right ) and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meet on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia. Photo: Greek President’s Press Office

Turkey, which has much more on its head than killing Kurds, poses a major problem for Putin. It wants to become a significant person in the former Russian footing ground, which was formerly known as the Turkic Central Asian country.

The” stans”, as they are called, are under pressure from NATO, from China and from Turkey, and Russia’s relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is, shall we say, problematic.

How this plays up is anyone’s guess, but obviously, Turkey will need a bigger position and lead place in exploiting the country’s natural resources, including uranium, gold, copper, and natural gas, among many others.

Trump’s plan’s main focus is on ending the Ukraine war. It says little about many of Russia’s reported objectives, although Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov went through these in his&nbsp, interview with Tucker Carlson, particularly protecting Russian speakers, denazification, security of the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine, a natural Ukrainian government, no NATO bases or troops.

All of this implies significant modifications to Ukraine’s Constitution and the withdrawing of several laws passed by the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s legislature, as well as canceling different National decrees.

Putin might want a ceasefire and negotiations on territorial issues and the status of forces to be concluded before these laws and decrees are signed. It’s still unclear whether he will or not.

There is talk of sending Zelensky into exile ( London is mentioned ) and holding elections in Ukraine in NATO circles. To accomplish this, political exiles from Ukraine would need to be able to go back to Ukraine and form organizations, and those who are imprisoned or under house arrest also need political freedom.

President Volodymyr Zelensky met with members of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate and presented state awards on the occasion of the 30-year anniversary of military intelligence of the country. Image: X Screengrab

The Ukrainian secret services and their military enlistrers are the stumbling blocks. They are the ones ( both the” civilian” and military secret services ) that have been keeping the current Ukrainian government in power.

Without putting an end to these powerful, quasi-military police operations that systematically eavesdrop on Ukrainian citizens and orchestrate bombings and assassinations at home as well as in and outside of Russia, it is difficult to imagine how free elections could be held in Ukraine. Without a solution to the security services issue, it is difficult to imagine how any elections in Ukraine could go wrong.

The Ukrainian GRU, officially the Main Directorate of Intelligence, is&nbsp, tightly tied to the CIA&nbsp, in the US and&nbsp, MI-6&nbsp, in the UK, and other intelligence services in the NATO countries ( i. e., BND or Bundesnachrichtendienst in Germany, DGSE or Directorate General for External Security in France, and the Security Service or Agencja Bezpieczeństwa Wewnętrznego in Poland. )

Any attempt to overthrow or weaken the Ukrainians ‘ sister services will be met with resistance.

Another significant issue is the actions and role of the nationalist militias in the Ukrainian army, including Azov and a number of others. Included here is the Special Operations Forces ( SSO ) of Ukraine, which consists of 4, 000 Spetsnaz specialists.

Will these units follow orders from Kyiv or will they obey them? The truth is that the Ukrainian army’s professional and volunteer components could act as spoilers and trigger attempts to overthrow the country’s government.

Ukrainian Spetznaz training during a NATO exercise ( Photo: Sgt. &nbsp, Patrik Orcutt

The Biden administration, which has been funneling billions in weapons to Ukraine at the eleventh hour, thereby delaying negotiations, and conducting provocative NATO exercises that pose a direct threat to Russia, is only making matters worse for Trump.

The most recent example is the deployment of nuclear bombers, AWACS, and other aircraft ( some of which are from the allies, including Sweden ) that are close to Kaliningrad and conducting exercises in the Gulf of Finland and the Kola peninsula.

Additionally, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s statements, which are combative, claim that they are proud to have sand in the direction of the upcoming administration that wants to slow or stop sales of weapons to Ukraine and not make the situation worse by flooding Ukraine with weapons.

Oddly enough, Putin will find it more difficult to make concessions to Trump as a result of the recent blows to Russian prestige in the Middle East. Can Trump persuade Putin to cooperate?

He will require some potent sweeteners to entice Russia, but we cannot specify what they are. Meanwhile, the obstacles, including Biden, are sandbagging Trump and making real progress hard, even impossible.

UPDATE: &nbsp, Zelensky says discussions with US President-elect Trump&nbsp, are premature, as Trump does not have the authority to address such matters.

Because he is not currently in the White House, it is difficult to talk to President Trump about this. By the way, I am going to call President Biden in the near future to raise the issue of Ukraine’s NATO invitation”, Zelensky&nbsp, said.

The Ukrainian president also&nbsp, expressed openness&nbsp, to French President Macron’s proposal to deploy international military forces in Ukraine, potentially bridging the gap before NATO membership.

Reports indicate that the UK and France are &nbsp, considering&nbsp, peacekeeper deployments after a possible ceasefire, an idea that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock&nbsp, did not rule out.

Stephen Bryen is a correspondent for Asia Times and previously held the positions of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s staff and deputy undersecretary of defense for policy. &nbsp, This&nbsp, article was first published&nbsp, on his&nbsp, Substack newsletter&nbsp, Weapons and Strategy and is republished with permission.

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