From low trust to high in China

It’s a question of faith.

Generally, it comes down to believe.

Billy Joel

Han Feizi believed that time had run out on his carpet-bagging time in the sweet bay after the 2019 protests in Hong Kong. Well, everything excellent eventually comes to an end. The island not stops beckoning, and it was a very good work. But Han Feizi was uneasy. Over twenty years ago, he resided in Beijing and left with a bitter aftertaste.

Han Feizi, who has been dragging users around Beijing for two years, is aware that everything has changed. He has seen the hundreds of motorbikes vanish into the streets of cities, be replaced by cars, and then return as shared versions in candy-colored hues.

Every square inch of the city is now covered by what locals refer to as the” spider web,” which was built from two metro lines in 2001. Han Feizi’s former hangouts have all either vanished or become horribly upmarket.

But nonetheless. We’re referring to Beijing, where Han Feizi has engaged in his fair share of city fights, squeezed through fictitious lines, hocked loogies carelessly, and raised his voice in official settings.

Do n’t ask, but he has even participated in a bloody brawl with steel rebar and cinder block fragments used as weapons. All of a sudden, Han Feizi felt very ancient to continue. In addition to &nbsp,

Han Feizi clicked on a David Brooks content about the Atlantic one day as he was preparing for Beijing’s ups and downs. It was a piece that wreaked havoc on America’s declining cultural confidence. It was written during the obscene 2020 election time, when trash fires appeared to be raging across the nation, despite apparently being overwrought. It was a good article, but Han Feizi laughed at one line:

Countries with high levels of social trust, such as the Netherlands, Sweden, China, and Australia, have developed or fast growing economy.

Brooks does have a keen eye for America, but it is clear that he is unfamiliar with China. It’s alright. China was n’t the subject of the article. Americans were sadly extrapolating from video of China’s shot trains and glittering skyscrapers as they were caught up in a confidence crisis. Han Feizi was wiser. These cultural trust ratings are useful because they take into account various historical interpretations of the queries and responses.

According to an Ipsos survey, China and India had the highest levels of interpersonal trust, with 56 % of respondents saying “most people can be trusted,” followed by the Netherlands in third place at 48 %, dishonest Japan at 21 % ( below the US at 33 % ), Russia at 244 %, South Korea at 233 %, and Columbia at 22 % ).

The aggressive touts in Tokyo’s Roppongi district did n’t look Japanese, but Han Feizi does recall not trusting any of them. Polls, come on. India and China away of Japan And Switzerland, Germany, and Sweden? Actually?

Francis Fukuyama released” Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity” in 1995, not long after his big break with” The End of History and The Last Man.” In it, he outlined his theory of social confidence, which was based on democratic principles and allowed people to organize on their own for the greater great, specifically to create sizable wealth-generating companies.

Fukuyama asserts that impersonalistic Germans, Japanese, and Americans may operate at extremely high levels of social respect, enabling the formation of large corporations naturally, while familistic peoples like Chinese and Italians require state action to create effectively big enterprises. Without a powerful state, Russians degenerate into mafia mayhem because they lack strong familial ties and liberal values. In addition to &nbsp,

Readers are entirely appropriate if they believe that this article will soon turn into another Francis Fukuyama-bashing exercise. We cannot allow” The End of History” to take center stage. Francis Fukuyama has also given birth to various stinkers, and the long-forgotten” Trust” has aged only as ill.

The Chinese have claimed that a technology distance develops every three years since transformation and opening up. Every 36 months, cultural customs, aspirations, and mores change in China due to the country’s rapid change. More than just a remark on unchecked financial growth, it is.

It denoted a turbulent world. As far as he could throw them, Hang Feizi pushed, hustled, bickered, received hustles, fiddled with, howled, and did n’t trust anyone in this heady mix. In addition, &nbsp,

Next everything changed. The shift is difficult to date. Stand Feizi’s trip back to Beijing was postponed by Covid by two times. But there is no doubt that things have changed. Three years, or the typical size of a century distance, passed during China’s sporadic Covid lockdowns. It had to change, of training. The time of go-go were spinning out of control. A new technology was long late.

This innovative Beijing is unsettling to Stand Feizi. How did all the smoking fare? And all the hockers from the loogie? With their phones buried in their faces, everyone instantly forms a line for the subway. Hang Feizi has received a metro seat offer from three young people. Hang Feizi was receiving the older remedy for the first time at the time, and it was just as embarrassing as he had anticipated.

Hang Feizi prepared himself for the administrative headache of opening bank balances, obtaining a local telephone number, and registering with the public protection office, rather than anticipating the expressionless officials and their condescending demeanors.

As if Han Feizi had stepped into the Twilight Zone, the truth was startling. Bank staff stooped down to accommodate Han Feizi’s several unique needs and circumstances. Similar assistance came from the public safety department. For months, Han Feizi worried that figure snatching had entered Beijing and turned the locals into service-obsessed imposters. He had to put it to the test.

Han Feizi chose to fight a DiDi pilot who was anticipating the same old Beijing retaliation. everything else. Simply a courteous nod and de-escalation. For seizing an aerosol can, Han Feizi’s better third chewed out train security.

A security guard pursued her while she was still steaming on the train platform and offered to store the offensive material for afterwards set in her workplace. Han Feizi does not like it at all that figure thievery have invaded Beijing. For goodness sake, this is Beijing, no Tokyo!

Han Feizi might not be aware of everything Brooks and Ipsos are. Street violence is all but nonexistent. In the libraries, college students leave their devices and other items unattended. Simply because, the hairstylist will give you a fruit plate. Beijing residents ‘ brash exterior, which they had previously used to fortify themselves against a perilous people, has vanished into subdued courtesy.

Part of the intense focus on company can be attributed to “involution,” a Chinese term for diminishing returns for extra work. As development slows, competition intensifies, leading to over-the-top attempts by companies to meet clients. Opinions on e-commerce programs are a slave to Chinese retail businesses.

Nine times out of ten, the vendor will get in touch and offer to make up if a negative review has validity. Although there are undoubtedly customer benefits, services workers are also expected to carry a heavy workload. Han Feizi observes the expanded service but questions whether it is only a sign of deflation, deferring judgment until the economy recovers.

The real and, equally important, the perception of public safety have been influenced by technical innovations like widespread CCTV cameras, physical recognition, and real-name phone registration. All is aware that CCTV is keeping an eye on them. This has caused a previously high-tension public’s body pressure to drop.

People are less vigilant, less willing to find their tails up, and less likely to show their teeth when there is no property offense. A once-favorite sport of Beijingers, public shouting matches, has unfortunately vanished. We point out that none of this is the result of a” social credit index,” which has only ever existed in Western media’s fevered imagination and as small aircraft plans.

After stories about people ‘ Kafkaesque experience navigating bureaucracies for routine services were made public by the media, a campaign was started to redesign government buildings that faced the public. This was a logical continuation of the ten-year anti-corruption battle that ended low-level governmental misconduct.

The 12345 people line was expanded and given the authority to register complaints; reducing complaints has grown to be a key KPI for government agencies that deal with the public.

Han Feizi is left scratching his head in China as Brooks chronicles the decline of interpersonal trust in America. He is terrified of this innovative Beijing. It was n’t meant to be feasible. Fukuyama asserts that social confidence cannot be created:

Today, having given up on social engineering’s potential, almost all major observers are aware that the vitality of liberal political and economic institutions depends on a vibrant and healthy civil society.

We are all aware that civil society is a voluntary organization made up of organizations like temples, charities, unions, and businesses that help people become high-trust citizens. Fukuyama asserts that there are no options for the authorities in these institutions, which are the results of liberal cultures and revolution principles: &nbsp,

As in the case of additional forms of human capital, the social capital required to establish this kind of social group may be obtained through a wise investment choice.

Of course, Francis Fukuyama’s traditional interpretations have not been well received over the last three years. China had already established colossal private firms like Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei, and BYD, which Fukuyama had deemed impossible, even before it recently ascended the cultural confidence group furniture: &nbsp,

Germany, Japan, and the United States are examples of high-trust civilizations that have access to a lot of social capital as well as the capacity to establish sizable, personal businesses. Contrarily, family firms have historically populated the economy of somewhat low-trust cultures like Taiwan, Hong Kong, France, and Italy.

Fukuyama offered a sort of mea culpa in his 2014 book,” Political Order and Democratic Decay.” It turns out that high trust civilizations would not survive without civil society as their key sauce. Fukuyama has recently learned that civil society can create interest groups that may ossify the democratic system and turn America into a vetocracy.

Next, how do we balance these diametrically opposed stories—that interest groups are tainting democracy and impeding economic development, and that they are prerequisites for a strong democracy?

How, in fact. Han Feizi may left that decision up to Brooks, Fukuyama, and people of a similar caliber. Han Feizi is more intrigued by the young, high-trust world that Beijing seems to have attained.

Han Feizi recently visited Hong Kong and had the unsettling impression that the locals there were disrespectful, contemptuous, and uncouth. Han Feizi has undoubtedly heavily discounted his studies in his mind by pointing out that Beijing might not be a member of all of China, that superficial niceties might mask more profound pathologies, and that it’s possible that some intangible power was sacrificed.

Han Feizi’s specific plans have also been thrown off course by this alien high-trust Beijing. Han Feizi came back to Beijing primarily for the benefit of the following century. Han Feizi’s sadistic parenting philosophy also holds that young people who have not lived in a developing economy and all of its ills will be too delicate for the foreseeable future, in addition to giving them an improved understanding of China.

This is proving to be a huge failure. Also, in America, there are a lot of institutions.

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Iran's role in Israel's conflict

The struggling in Gaza has been going on for the past two decades, and despite a brief stalemate, there is still no sign of an end to the conflict. &nbsp,

Additionally, it’s possible that fresh nations will get involved. Iran or the Tehran-backed Syrian organization Hezbollah are two of the most possible candidates.

Pro-Iranian parties have increased their attacks on US defense installations, despite the fact that the government in Tehran remains relatively careful without explicitly calling for a battle.

70 US bases in Iraq and Syria were attacked between October 17 and November 21, mostly by the pro-Iranian Muslim Weight there.

But, is a fight between Israel and Iran unavoidable?

no always. It is not in anyone’s best interest for a fight to intensify because it could increase regional volatility, disrupt the supply network, or even result in an increase in oil production.

For this reason, Saudi Arabia has offered to invest in the Egyptian market in trade for Iran restrainting its allies to stop the fight with Israel from getting worse. &nbsp,

Tehran would likely cease arming the” shaft of weight” against Israel, which includes military organizations in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, as a result.

Tehran has merely stated that it is willing to aid in the improvement of Saudi Arabia’s military ties. It is currently impossible to rule out the worst-case situation for this situation. What if Iran actually joins the issue in the first place?

It would be terrible for anyone, to put it briefly. On the one hand, there would be more people casualties, and on the other, the Covid- 19 pandemic’s aftermath may hit the world economy, which is still healing.

Iran was, in the worst case scenario, launch attacks on features like Aramco, as it did in 2019, obstructing the passage of boats and oil ships through the Persian Gulf.

Such advancements are not likely to boost business confidence. Shifting to defensive assets like gold (XAUUSD ) and the dollar could speed up, even though a collapse might not be imminent.

Bloomberg Economics predicts that if there are oil market disruptions, global growth could drop by 1 %, which would mean a 1.7 % decline in the 2024 indicator.

What follows?

Even if Iran finally decides not to intervene directly in Israel’s fight with Hamas, there will still be a lot of pressure on Iran from around the world.

Tehran’s desire to build its own nuclear army will be one of the reasons. Israel has repeatedly stated that it will take all necessary steps to prevent such a scenario, despite having an already sizable nuclear arsenal ( albeit one that is very secretive ).

In other words, there are still a lot of political uncertainties to deal with because too many potential flashpoints have emerged.

Investors should be on the lookout in this regard, remember to hedge their risks, and use the amount indication to spot any potential trend changes.

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Nvidia's automotive chip sales still riding high in China

The US Commerce Department has all but shut down Nvidia’s AI processor business in China, but its DRIVE Orin system-on-a-chip ( SoC ) for electric autonomous vehicles is still very popular. &nbsp,

Nvidia’s mechanical revenues, which are currently running at a rate of over US$ 1 billion per month, are boosted by more than 12 corporate users in China. &nbsp,

At the 21st Guangzhou International Automobile Exhibition, which took place from November 17 to 26, a number of Nvidia’s Chinese clients displayed their brand-new electric vehicles ( EVs ), including Denza, Human Horizons, Ji Yue, NIO, XPeng, Zeekr, and BYD. &nbsp,

A key system for clever vehicles called the Nvidia DRIVE Orin SoC can perform 254 trillion procedures per minute. DRIVE Orin enables instantaneous and redundant processing of data from exterior and interior cameras, radar, lidar, and ultrasonic sensors. It can be scaled from Level 2 advanced driving assistance systems ( ADAS ) to Level 5 fully autonomous vehicles.

Denza displayed its energy N7 SUV, which sits in the middle of the Model X and Y models made by Tesla. Denza’s custom Commuter Smart Driving system, which enables high-speed navigation, speed-limit and lane-keeping control, automatic emergency braking, top cross-traffic alert, and parking assistance, is controlled by DRIVE Orin. A joint venture between BYD and Mercedes-Benz is called Denza.

The HiPhi Y SUV from Human Horizons Technology was displayed. It has touch-free electricity doors, night vision, and street analysis. Human Horizons, with its headquarters in Shanghai, creates Batteries and autonomous driving systems. &nbsp,

It has activities facilities in Munich and Oslo in addition to an R&amp, D facility in Tokyo. Top executives of the company have experience working for automakers in China, the United States, Japan, and Europe.

Ji Yue, a collaboration between automaker Geely and Baidu, an expert in internet and artificial intelligence ( AI), unveiled its brand-new Robocar JiYue 1. It combines Geely technology with Baidu’s application technologies, including an engaging vocal help system called SIMO, and was introduced in late October. &nbsp,

The Robocar JiYue 01’s interior. Ji Yue is an picture

Its ROBO Drive Max assisted and autonomous driving features, which are offered as a monthly subscription services to facilitate technology upgrades, include street changing and cross-lane turns, on and off corridor moving, obstacle avoidance, identification of pedestrians, and voice-activated automatic parking.

Eight types with Banyan, NIO’s Smart Digital System, and Adam, a machine system with four Nvidia DRIVE Orin SoCs, were included in the show. NIO also provides technology upgrades. &nbsp,

The company’s headquarters are in Shanghai, but Nanjing, Munich, Oxford, and San Jose are home to its innovative engineering R&amp, D center, as well as its worldwide design center.

The brand-new X9 energy minivan, electric G6 car, P7i sedan, and G9 four-door were all displayed by xPeng. With its headquarters in Guangzhou, XPeng has R&amp, D locations, companies, and transportation and other support facilities in China as well as in California and California. &nbsp,

Zeekr unveiled the 007 as its first electrical coupe. Zeekr, with its headquarters in Zhejiang, also produces an electric SUV, car, and station wagon for” shooting brakes.” &nbsp,

In November, it unveiled its first European store in Stockholm. Geely Automotive Holdings, which likewise owns Volvo, is the owner of Zeeker. It was established in 2021 to rival Tesla and NIO. &nbsp,

BYD displayed its entire line-up of fresh energy vehicles, but its attention was drawn to the introduction of its e4 system, off-road SUV Yangwang U8, and” supercar,” which has a two-second acceleration time of 0 to 100 km/h. &nbsp,

A fresh advanced BYD brand is called Yangwang. The e4 Program is the first system for four-motor separate drive technology that has been mass-produced in China.

The Nvidia DRIVE Orin centralized system system may be extended by BYD to new designs in its Dynasty and Ocean electronic car line, the company announced in March. &nbsp,

The two businesses stated at the time that they” reveal the belief that coming vehicles will be customizable, evolving from being based on numerous integrated controllers to high-performance consolidated computers- with functionalities delivered and enhanced through program updates over the life of the vehicle.”

DeepRoute, a Nvidia DRIVE habitat partner. Ai was likewise present at the exhibition, showcasing its DeepRoute- Drivers 3.0 computerized driving solution for Level 4 automatic driving in challenging urban settings, inclement weather, and other conditions. Most of the time, Level 4 cars run on their own, but the vehicle can still be in charge. &nbsp,

DeepRoute- Driver 3.0 is not typically restricted to a particular operational area ( geofenced ). DeepRoute. Robotaxis and cosmopolitan logistics are ai’s areas of expertise. Its two offices are in Shenzhen and Fremont, California, respectively.

In Guangzhou, there were more than 400 electronic, hybrid, and other new energy vehicles on display, of which about 60 were initially displayed to the general public. &nbsp,

According to Canalys technology market research, China is currently the world’s top auto market and is about 50 % larger than the US market in terms of the adoption of advanced technology. In the first half of 2023, 55 % of all electric vehicles sold worldwide were sold in China. &nbsp,

In international markets, BYD’s electric cars are gaining ground. Photo: Online

At the Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition next April, another Nvidia DRIVE users, such as SAIC, GAC Aion, Li Auto, IM Motors, Baidu, Desay SV, Momenta, Volvo, and Lotus, displayed their Batteries and related items. &nbsp,

SAIC, Alibaba, and the Zhangjiang Group formed the cooperative venture known as IM Motors. The Zhangjiang Group, which is situated in Shanghai’s Pudong New Area, is in charge of overseeing the development of the Shanghai Science City. &nbsp,

It serves as a hub for R&amp, D schools, facilities, colleges, and private businesses with an area of 95 square km. &nbsp,

Momenta is a Beijing-based ADAS program developer that is funded by SAIC, GM, Toyota, Bosch, Mercedes-Benz, and another Chinese and overseas investors. It was founded by CEO Cao Xudong, who was formerly an employee of Microsoft Research. With its main office in Huizhou, Guangdong, Saya SV manufactures in-vehicle devices.

The Arm Hercules CPU cores, heavy studying, and computer vision accelerators are all combined in the Nvidia DRIVE OrinSoC. It has grown to be an essential component of the Chinese EV industry’s assisted and intelligent driving systems. &nbsp,

It has not yet been the target of US punishment, in contrast to Nvidia’s AI chips for data centres, which were initially the A100 and H100 before being followed by an A800 and an H800. &nbsp,

Following this author on Twitter at @ScottFo83517667.

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Why aid workers need more personal security training

One of the greatest writers of 19th-century America, Ralph Waldo Emerson, once said,” Self-sacrifice is the real mystery out of which all the reported mysteries grow.” There are no words that you adequately express the tireless and devoted work of humanitarian assistance staff.

However, one should not lose sight of the fact that these people are in no less need of safety when taking their self-sacrifice for granted.

Unfortunately, the depressing data are proof of that. In observance of the 102 aid workers killed in the ongoing Israeli-Has issue, UN agencies all over the world lowered their banners on November 13.

More than 400 charitable employees were hurt, including 116 people who died, as a result of the 235 episodes that took place in three dozen nations next year. The highest victim count was in South Sudan, followed by Mali, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

What’s the answer?

In actuality, it is possible to anticipate, reduce, and also avoid safety risks. According to Sophie Buur, a charitable security expert and the director of training at the security company Dyami, the solution may include state actors, non-state agents, charitable organizations, and donors.

According to Buur, citing the Geneva Conventions,” State and non-state players need to better know, regard, and uphold international humanitarian law.”

In accordance with that report, the law “requires parties to a fight to respect and protect personnel participating in pleasure actions” and “provides protection for pleasure activities” in that parties may permit and promote quick and unhindered section of all comfort consignments, equipment, and personnel.”

However, relying only on the parties ‘ moral behavior would be a fatal error. Aid workers often find themselves in the middle of fighting or in areas ruled by unauthorized armed groups whose adherents disregard global laws.

Terrorist organizations, in particular, have frequently targeted employees of international non-governmental organizations ( NGOs ) in an effort to gain media attention or demand ransom. A well-known instance involved the kidnapping and execution of five Action Against Hunger employees by the Islamic State in West Africa ( ISWA ) in the northeastern Nigerian state of Borno.

Information is strength.

Charitable organizations must take on greater accountability for the safety of their staff due to the element of uncertainty, which is typical of most crisis situations. The issue is primarily related to training for health skills and personal security awareness.

Buur emphasized that all team members, irrespective of their position, should be given training.” Humanitarian agencies need to work harder to do more to uphold their duty of care duties ( both legally and ethically ) to their employees, both national and international.”

The expert continued,” People working in the office and people traveling for the organization should train their drivers in protection awareness.” ” We need to do a better job of educating staff about the dangers and risks they face while working or traveling, as well as making sure they are aware of the firm’s SOPs], standard operating procedures, disaster programs, etc.

Additionally, she added,” we must keep pushing for the integration of safety and security into our activities.” When developing new initiatives and figuring out how to carry them out, security and safety should be a top priority.

Donors may also play a part in enhancing the security of aid workers in hazardous areas. Buur emphasized that” Security does not always have the funds required to train employees or hire individuals especially designated for the responsibilities of safety and security.”

difficulties in working for smaller NGOs

The fact that philanthropists do certainly all have the same level of support is what is especially concerning about their security and safety. According to the 2023 Aid Worker Security Report, 184 compared to 162 victims were lost by national humanitarian agencies last year, marking the first time in a generation.

International Organizations frequently relied on their local colleagues rather than sending their own team when addressing wars in Syria, Yemen, or Myanmar. National support staff consequently turned out to be more vulnerable to risk. For example, 43 of 44 victims of humanitarian workers in Sudan reported being local employees.

The report also discovered that NGOs frequently allocate training resources proportionally, favoring their foreign staff. Also, smaller charitable organizations typically have to take an unexpected approach to individual security training, whereas larger organizations use more established programs.

According to Buur, the most important factors to take into account are the diversity of organizations, their resources, and their potential.

” Big international companies have compliance officials looking into whether the business is up to its duty of care and are better at teaching staff and hiring people specifically for safety and security.”

However, there are also smaller local NGOs that collaborate with large corporations and frequently take on a lot more danger because they are present where the activity is. Additionally, they lack the funds to hire a safety and security staff and train employees, according to the professional.

The kind of training is important.

While online courses are more economical, in-person safety training is the most result-oriented but also expensive mode. The former ones’ guidelines can undoubtedly aid in identifying and also reducing risks in administrative settings.

However, unlike in-person instruction, online programs are unable to model actual-world circumstances. It is also well known that participants can better understand the educational materials by engaging in face-to-face conversation and acting while learning.

The most effective strategy is thought to be a combined one that combines both online and in-person modes. And this is where the issue starts: many NGOs, especially small and local people, just may afford that level of training.

Sadly, this comes at a higher cost. Lack of security training can increase aid workers ‘ risk exposure, and the NGOs ‘ leadership and donors should carefully consider this.

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The Big Bang never happened – so what did?

Jonathan Tennenbaum, director of the Asia Times Science, provides the advantages.

Eric Lerner made headlines in September with his Asia Times content,” Saying goodbye to the Big Bang,” in which he argued that the principle is incompatible with a vast body of celestial data gathered over many years, including most recent statistics from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope.

Yet two well-known astrophysicists Adam Frank and Marcelo Gleiser, who had previously been ardent Big Bang proponents, were persuaded by the data to acknowledge that the conventional cosmic theory must be inherently flawed. They said,” It’s starting to appear as though we might need to reevaluate important aspects of the creation and course of our world.”

Lerner, Eric.

Eric Lerner outlines the fundamental concepts of an alternative theory of the development of our world in this and the two articles that follow. This theory is based on the work of physicist Hannes Alfvén, who won the Nobel Prize.

The exact theories that explain the origin and evolution of stars, galaxies, and larger-scale structures in the Universe, according to Lerner, hold the key to understanding practical fusion power on Earth. He wants to demonstrate this using the work of his own business, LPPFusion, on the fusion method known as deep blood concentrate. This is Part 1 of him:

How did things get to where they do? People have relied on faith and folklore for centuries, and some still do. But today, the majority of people look to science to explain the history of how our nation, species, world, and the whole cosmos have evolved.

A deluge of fresh information from the James Webb Space Telescope ( JWST ) &nbsp, among other instruments, has caused the history of the cosmos that most cosmologists have been telling to fall apart over the past year. &nbsp, The theory that the universe is expanding from a massive blast 14 billion years ago is currently refuted by dozens of different sets of data and has been disproven by any medical exam.

What would have happened, though, if the Big Bang had n’t occurred? Exists a different theory of cosmic creation that has really been supported by data? And what difference does what occurred in far-off stars billions or billions of years back make to the present?

In fact, a different, medically supported record of cosmic evolution has emerged over the past 50 years, with science Nobel laureate Hannes Alfvén and his associates at the forefront.

Using the natural methods that we observe and study these on Earth and in our solar system, this method statistically describes and predicted the major events we see in the Universe before studies.

It’s a tale that does n’t require enigmatic forces like inflation, dark matter, or dark energy. Since plasmas, electric conducting gases, are essential to understanding cosmic evolution, I’ve dubbed this alternative “plasma cosmology.”

A principle of cosmic evolution without growth was developed by Hannes Alfvén as a pioneer. Photo: Commons for Creative

The production of fusion strength, a form of cheap, clean, secure, and limitless power to replace fossil fuels, is one of the most important processes that explain the cosmos ‘ advancement that can be used right here on Earth. The study of the sky can result in very real and significant scientific advancements here on Earth, as has been the case numerous times in the past.

The Evolutionary Technology

A proper scientific method is necessary to study and comprehend the creation of the Universe or anything else in a scientifically sound manner. To attempt to write a grand cosmical drama always leads to myth, as Alfvén put it 40 years before. Research is the attempt to replace misunderstanding with expertise in extremely vast areas of space and time.

In other words, we ca n’t sit at our computers and create the most exquisite equations that depict how the Universe must have been in the beginning if we want to learn about the real Universe. That results in story that is expressed in mathematical terms. The same way that Sumerian, Hebrew, or English can simply define myths, so you calculus.

Instead, we had use observations to follow the exact universe evolution step-by-step backward in time and forward in area. Next, as far back as we can tell with our current technology, we are constantly describing an evolutionary history that does not begin at some fictitious “beginning.”

Next, a description of truth that acknowledges that the Universe is made up of both the processes that create and maintain such structures—things like protons, molecules, cells, and people—is necessary for an accurate understanding of the evolution process.

When applied to complex methods, including the Universe as a whole, the bottom-up intellectual method known as “reductionism,” which asserts that the universe is composed of elementary particles that form nuclear, atoms, molecules, and so on, results in contradictions and “mysteries.”

Rather, it is necessary to consider the processes that create these structures to be equally important to the structures themselves, such as the thermonuclear fusion that results in chemical elements in stars.

Consider what happens when you take a breath as an easy illustration of the change in strategy. Your breathing receive hydrogen atoms from the atmosphere, which then enter your bloodstream, enter cells, and eventually become a part of your body.

It is obvious that the air particles in the surroundings are dead. But when they enter your tissues and become a part of you, do they miraculously become “alive”? When they are eventually exhaled as a component of carbon dioxide molecules in your mouth, do they “die” at that point?

These issues become enigmatic and contradictory from a materialist perspective that claims you are” only” made up of molecules, forming molecules, creating cells, and so forth.

However, when reality is viewed as a series of processes, we can see that when we breath in, the air molecules that enter our cells join the process that we refer to as “life,” which is the distinct process of each unique human being.

The buildings in your body are constantly evolving and renewing, from atoms to tissue to tissues to your entire body, but this process of life creates and maintains them. With each breathing, the specific hydrogen, carbon, and nitrogen molecules you are made of change, but the process that creates each of those molecules into you continues from birth until death.

You, as a unique individual being, are connected to the larger method of biologic and social development that gave rise to and sustains your life process.

These processes may be studied with the same scientific accuracy that is used to identify structures like atoms and molecules, and they are crucial to comprehending evolution, the most comprehensive process of all.

The earliest techniques that we can currently observe

What period of history do we currently have evidence for being the furthest again? The observations of the largest-scale buildings in the Universe provide us with the broadest perspective again.

As surface- and space-based cameras have peered deeper and deeper into space, they have found larger and larger clusters of galaxies. Galaxie clusters that are almost spherical are strung together like pearls on filaments with a diameter of tens of millions of light years, and the superclusters are twisted into an ever-larger hierarchy that spans more than four billionlight years. They are also longer.

We can determine the speed at which galaxies are moving inside of such enormous structures, so we can estimate how long it took to type them. These velocities typically do n’t go faster than 1, 000 km/sec, or roughly 1/3 of the speed of light.

Simple mathematics reveals that these objects must be about 7 or 8 trillion years old, or about 500 times older than the fictional time of the Big Bang, because the formation of any thing takes at least as long as it takes the subject to turn around its axis.

One of the main inconsistencies in the Big Bang hypothesis ‘ predictions is the existence of these enormous things.

Through techniques that we have observed in the lab, it is possible to determine the development of the observed order of buildings in, up to and including these largest buildings, without the time constraint imposed by the Big Bang strategy.

Alfvén and his colleagues first demonstrated in 1978 that, given enough time, such institutions were the unavoidable outcome of the contacts of a small number of techniques, all of which were well-observed in laboratory tests and explained by widely accepted theory.

The squeeze effect, which is the interest of electric currents moving in the same direction as a result of their contact with the magnetic fields created by their own motion, is this primary for operation. Ampere made the initial observation of this effect in 1820 using voltages in cables.

Left: In the pinch result, currents that flow in the same direction create magnetic areas that draw the different currently flowing in that direction. Right: In particles, electrons move in filaments along magnetic field lines. Graphics: LPPFusion/MIT

Any little currents of electrons moving in one way in a blood in space will attract other current that just so happens to be traveling in the same way. They thwart opposing currents that flow through them.

Electrical tides accumulate over time in ever-greater amounts. Alfvén emphasized that because astronomical plasmas outside of celebrities have such low densities, they are often magnetized, which means that the electrical fields that currents produce control their motions.

Particle incidents that would alter tides and nbsp are uncommon.

With currents flowing in the direction of the magnetic field, yet incredibly small amounts of current self-organize into filaments. The magnetic field forces electrons to maneuver in small lines around the area way as they move across it, so they are compelled to do so very closely, much like gymnasts holding onto a shaft.

The filaments take on a distinctive form as currents flow along the filament’s plane in the middle and are wrapped in helixes around the outside.

These filaments ‘ axes are concentrated with plasma by electrical forces, which act as a vortex that draws fluids to the middle. The swirling forces of these forces also propel these celestial whirlwinds at speeds of 1,000 km/s.

For strands are still visible today at all weights throughout the Universe. They are exquisitely depicted in pictures of the Veil cloud. Tiny tides of a few amps gradually merged together over incredibly long periods of time to form enormous strands with radii of many billion light years and carrying close to one billion trillion amp.

The largest buildings that we can currently see emerged from those fibers.

The spiral electrical filaments that we see in the cosmos at all scales are depicted by the Veil Nebula, which is shown here in an image from the Hubble Space Telescope. NASA image

How can we be sure?

How can we be certain that these enormous structures were created by this method and that the Big Bang, black power, and dark matter are real events from a fairy tale?

Second, the theories of the formation of these filaments and their merging to enormous size are based on a theory called electromagnetism, which has been proven through millions of experiments and serves as the foundation for much of modern technology that supports human community.

Every time you turn on the latest, Maxwell’s electricity theory is verified. This is very dissimilar from theories like dark strength, for which there is no proof through laboratory tests. Dark power is not a comprehensive theory with accurate predictions.

Next, in laboratory experiments, we can watch and control the fibers themselves.

In all high-energy plasmas that are used to generate fusion energy on Earth, filaments naturally appear, as we’ll go into more detail in the following sections of this series. The filaments are the first step in a method of concentrating blood and heating it in our own deep plasma concentrate machine.

Left: The dense plasma focus device FF- 2B used by LPPFusion has filaments that span centimeters but are driven by the same processes as those used to span tens of thousands of kilometers of the Sun ( at right ). On every scale of the cosmos, there are strands. Images: NASA / LPPFusion
The path of electromagnetic fields and the currents that are aligned with them are shown on a polarization map of the local galaxy M83. The power of far-off electromagnetic fields can also be determined using for information. NASA image

Third, and perhaps most importantly, we see that these fibers have electromagnetic fields that are present at all scales of the world. The effects of magnetic domains on the polarization of light and radio waves can be used to electronically detect them.

The numerical hypotheses that these fibers are guided by electric and magnetic forces have been verified by in-depth comparisons of the electromagnetic fields ‘ structure and size.

When we describe the next stage of celestial development, which involves the relations of these magnetic strands with gravity, we’ll talk about more evidence for this method in the next part of the series. That, we’ll demonstrate how the enormous ancient electrical filaments actually gave rise to the hierarchy of stars, galaxies, groups, and superclusters.

The way in which electric and magnetic fields oscillate in electromagnetic energy, such as lighting and radio waves, is referred to as polarization. Here, the wave moves to the right while the magnetic field ( blue ) oscillates horizontally. &nbsp, Image: Commons for Creative

This first ask: Is this the earliest operation to have ever happened in the Universe before moving on to that next topic.

No always. We return to Alfvén’s idea of going back in day step by step. The earliest method for which we currently have reliable information is this filamentation approach. However, researchers have considered the possibility of earlier stages, including Alfvén and his associates.

For instance, we are aware that just simply equal amounts of energy can create matter and antimatter in a laboratory. Contaminants that are equivalent to matter particles but have the opposite charge make up ether.

However, problem is 50, 000 occasions more prevalent than antimatter in the universe, such as in celestial rays.

Alfvén and colleagues discovered that matter and antimatter would normally separate at incredibly large scales as a result of interactions between an “ambiplasma” and gravitation, electrical currents, and electromagnetic fields. Large-scale filamentation may have formed at the same time as or even before this parting process took place.

However, because there is no concrete observational evidence for such an earlier stage, we must state that it is currently” speculative” —something that may be true, theoretically possible, but is not in any way supported by science.

We would need more and various studies than we currently have to confirm it. For those looking for nice stories, this may not be a satisfactory response, but it is the scientific response.

However, in the following section of this series, we will move forward rather than backward in time to the gravitational-magnetic recession phase of cosmic evolution that ultimately gave rise to galaxies, stars, and stars.

LPPFusion, Inc.’s chief professor is Eric J. Lerner.

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Can COP28 make real progress on climate change?

Roads closed as a record 97,000 guests descended on Dubai for the UN’s COP28 climate conference, which opened on Thursday. They included King Charles, Bill Gates, Narendra Modi, Lula da Silva, Emmanuel Macron, Kamala Harris, Rishi Sunak and US climate envoy John Kerry – though not, sadly, Pope Francis, prevented from attending by health reasons.

Will royal, plutocratic and popular figures be enough to make up for any lack of divine approval, and deliver the climate progress our overheating world badly needs?

From the point of view of the United Arab Emirates as host, and from the Middle East, there are several key objectives. One is to run an efficient event that makes significant advances on key issues.

Second is to move on from the disapproval the host nation has faced, mostly from Western media.

COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber has faced criticism over his continuing role as chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). His speech at the event’s opening, however, made clear that bringing in oil and gas companies to the process hadn’t been easy but had now resulted in many of those companies adopting net-zero 2050 commitments.

“I will run an inclusive and transparent process, one that encourages free and open discussion between all parties,” Al Jaber insisted.

In the opening days, the UAE has already found ways to move the conversation to areas where developed countries have failed on their promises, and enlist diplomatic sympathy from developing nations tired of Western lectures.

Third is to ensure that final declarations focus on eliminating emissions, not fossil fuels.

Fourth, and the most important of all to the outside world, is to deliver real climate progress, with Al Jaber pledging it will be a “COP of action.”

Middle Eastern countries have serious climate vulnerabilities. They face further rises to already extreme temperatures, water shortages, desertification and dust storms, and rising sea levels threatening heavily developed shorelines.

The event has begun well. On the first day, delegates agreed to operationalize the “Loss and Damage Fund,” which will help vulnerable countries deal with the unavoidable effects of climate change. The UAE and Germany will contribute US$100 million each, and the US and Japan have also agreed to pay in.

Finance is a central part of the talks, befitting Dubai’s status as a global business hub, and Abu Dhabi’s possession of two of the world’s biggest sovereign wealth funds. The UAE on Friday announced a $30 billion climate investment fund, which aims to “improve access to funding for the Global South.”

It looks likely that developed countries will now reach their much-delayed pledge from 2009 to commit $100 billion annually in climate finance to lower-income countries, even though this has been eroded by inflation.

Carbon trading is essential to allow finance to find its way to the lowest-cost ways of cutting emissions globally. That is the intention of Article 6.4 of the 2015 Paris Agreement, for which a deal was struck at last year’s COP27 in Sharm El Sheikh, but leaving many details unsettled.

Much diplomatic attention focuses on the wording of the final declaration: whether it will “phase out” or “phase down” fossil fuels, and whether this is “unabated” – meaning fossil fuels not using carbon capture and storage (CCS) or all fossil fuels regardless of their emissions levels.

The recognition of CCS as a valid approach is vital not just to oil-producing states, but worldwide. In this, the UAE and Saudi Arabia should have support from coal-heavy India and China. The US administration has also rolled out massive incentives for CCS. Most environmental groups, though, are ideologically hostile to any technology linked to fossil fuels, and the European Union is at best lukewarm in support.

Other parts of greening the traditional energy industry, notably cutting leaks of methane, would deliver vital near-term climate progress. But India seems reluctant, because of its large coal industry, and also concerns about the large share of the greenhouse gas that comes from agriculture, livestock and burning crop wastes. Instead, it is pushing a biofuel alliance.

In contrast, the goal of tripling renewable-energy capacity globally by 2030 is widely popular. With current momentum, it looks readily achievable. The UAE’s world-record low solar costs and the expansion of state renewables company Masdar make this a goal it can readily promote.

Doubling the rate of energy-efficiency gains by the same date is much more doubtful: Progress on efficiency has been stubbornly incremental over the decades, only gaining pace when energy prices soar. But oil and gas prices have moderated since last year; renewables costs, at least for solar and batteries, are back on a falling trend too.

The global stocktake, an essential part of the Paris Agreement process, will reveal how dangerously close we are already to exceeding the limit of a 1.5-degrees-Celsius increase in global temperatures from pre-industrial levels.

The crowd of delegates, from famous to humble, look set to deliver some good, solid progress – but inevitably short of what an emergency requires. The Dubai weather is pleasant at this time of year, but the world endured its hottest October on record, in this, the planet’s hottest year on record.

Perhaps holding the event in a Gulf August would have brought the peril home more vividly.

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.

Follow this writer on X @robinenergy.

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Israel faces new front in Iran’s drone war

Since the Hamas attack on Israel and the ensuing military campaign in Gaza, Israel has found itself the target of missiles and drones fired by Iranian-backed groups from various points in the Middle East.

While there has not been a full-scale escalation from groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, the attacks, many of which have been intercepted, have served as a warning of what Israel’s enemies in the region have at their disposal.

One particular incident marked a notable departure from previous attacks on Israel and will be causing increased concern for the country’s security officials.

On November 9, a drone launched from Syria struck a school in the southern Israeli city of Eilat. The drone managed to hit a target more than 400 kilometers away from the nearest Syrian territory. Previous attacks on Israel from Syria have typically involved mortar shelling across the border confined to unpopulated areas.

Beyond its remarkable long-distance reach, the drone’s capacity to fly undetected and execute a precise strike suggests the involvement of a well-trained operator. The message conveyed by the attack is equally noteworthy – it demonstrates the capability to target any location in Israel from Syria.

Eilat is Israel’s southernmost city and its only port on the country’s sliver of Red Sea coastline. The questions that loom large are: Who was responsible for the attack? And how did they manage to reach the target without triggering alarms from Israel’s sophisticated defense systems?

The Israeli military said the drone crashed into the school while about 40 students were in the basement. No serious injuries were reported.

The next day, the Israeli army said it had responded by targeting the organization in Syria responsible for launching the drone. However, the statement did not identity the group, and failed to give details about the target.

Initially, there were suspicions that the attack originated in Yemen, after several recent attempted strikes on Israel carried out by the Iran-backed Houthis. Examinations of the drone fragments indicated that it was most likely an Iranian-made Shahed-101 or a similar model.

The Shahed-101 boasts a range of up to 700 kilometers. Given that the distance from the Yemeni border to Eilat is nearly 2,000km, it became clear that the drone must have been launched from a location closer to Israel. 

Two primary theories continue to circulate regarding the launch location and who was operating the drone. The prevailing assumption is that the drone was launched from southern Syria by Hezbollah, or a group linked to it, which has had a large presence there since the Lebanese group backed President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war.

Hezbollah announced that seven of its fighters were killed on the day of the Eilat drone attack, without disclosing the location of their deaths. However, reports citing a Hezbollah official, among others, acknowledging that they were killed in Syria, added to suspicions that the seven died in Israel’s retaliatory air strike.

If these reports prove accurate, it would tie in with Israeli concerns over Hezbollah’s drone capacity and substantial influence in southern Syria. The absence of official acknowledgment from either party may stem from a shared interest in preventing further escalations.

However, there is a second theory as to who was responsible. Israeli news website Walla identified the elite Iranian-backed Imam Hussein Division as responsible for the attack. The group, also known as the Imam Hussein Brigades, was established by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria in 2016 and armed with Iranian-made drones and surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles. 

The media outlet, however, did not specify where the attack originated from. Military experts told this writer that while southern Syria remains a potential location, northeastern Syria – Imam Hussein’s stronghold – is considered a more likely launching point.

The considerable distance of northeastern Syria from the border with Israel renders it a more strategic launch spot for the drone compared with the southern part of Syria, which is subject to closer monitoring by Israel.

Regardless of which account of the November 9 attack is most accurate, both suggest the potential for drone strikes from different parts of Syria. The trajectory of the drone is an equally crucial detail. All reports say the drone approached Eilat from the direction of Jordan, covering hundreds of kilometers across the kingdom’s airspace.

The same military experts said the choice of Jordanian airspace for the drone’s path was because Israel sees its border with Jordan as relatively low-risk. Consequently, Israel directs its sensors, radars, and patrol aircraft to regions where the risk of attacks is deemed higher, such as southern Syria.

The rugged terrain along the Jordan-Israel border near Eilat adds complexity to drone detection and provides cover for the devices approaching from a distance at low altitudes.

Moreover, the drone’s distinctive features facilitated its discreet flight to the target without triggering Israel’s alarms. It flies at low speed and low altitude, can be programmed to deviate from a straight path, and has a compact size.

Amid the conflict in Gaza, the drone attack from Syria is unlikely to be the last. The Israeli military is expected to bolster security measures along the Jordanian border.

However, the technical challenges, Israel’s engagement on various fronts, and the capability of Iranian-backed groups to deploy multiple and more advanced drones diminish the likelihood of Israel completely neutralizing the threat.

Hence a diplomatic resolution for Gaza is the sole guaranteed means to prevent further escalation against Israel, domestically and regionally.

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.

Follow this writer on X @HaidHaid22.

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No Turkmen gas for Europe

Winter is coming on, and as I predicted here two months ago, not even a memorandum of understanding (MoU) or any agreement in principle was reached this autumn between the EU and Turkmenistan, for Europe to receive any natural gas in any form from the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea.

This failure has come despite a new pipeline-promoter company for the old project newly led by a former US ambassador to Turkmenistan.

It has come also despite the highly touted meeting between Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedow and president of the European Council, Charles Michel, in Brussels in mid-September, also despite and the attendance of Turkmen Foreign Minister Rashid Meredow in an EU–Central Asia inter-ministerial meeting in Luxembourg in late October and his meetings with a number of European Commission officials.

Such a pipeline was on the drawing boards in the late 1990s, until BP discovered enormous quantities of natural gas in Azerbaijan’s offshore Shah Deniz deposit, where it had in fact expected to find crude petroleum instead.

The South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) through Georgia to Turkey was then built, followed by the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) stretching all the way from eastern Turkey to Greece and, via the undersea Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), to Italy. An agreement was recently reached to double the volume of the TAP from 10 billion cubic meters per year to 20 bcm/y. This can be done by adding compressor stations, without new construction.

The shore-to-shore Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline (TCGP) could also have been built in the late 2010s, when the European Commission endorsed it as a Project of Common Interest (PCI). The problem here seems to have been that the Georgian government had already begun tilting geopolitically toward Russia, despite the Western orientation of the country’s electorate.

Moreover, it appears that para-statal Georgian companies (notably the Georgian Oil and Gas Corporation and its affiliates), which wished to preserve their monopoly on gas development and distribution, had already captured the country’s Energy and Development ministries.

Since Turkmen gas would have been competing in the European market with Russian gas (which Europe was still importing in large quantities at the time), the Georgian authorities seem simply to have quietly suppressed the TCGP project until the PCI designation expired after a few years.

Platform connection

So, most recently, the EU and the United States have instead tried once more to persuade Turkmenistan in favor of the so-called “platform connection” pipeline, between Turkmenistan’s and Azerbaijan’s offshore energy platforms already built in the middle of the Caspian Sea.

Such an interconnector could not carry more than 8-10bcm/y. Turkmenistan has rejected this idea repeatedly over the last 20 years, and this year it rejected it once again. Ashgabat has always insisted on the shore-to-shore TCGP, slated to carry 31bcm/y. Once again, this demand was not taken seriously, and failure ensued as in the past.

So what are Central and Southeastern Europe going to do? Of course, it is too late to do anything for the oncoming winter, or even next year’s winter; but it now looks like the implementation of the Solidarity Ring will proceed without obstacle.

First discussed in 2022, on the basis of the former EastRing project, its major difference from the latter was that EastRing had forseen new pipeline construction and an initial planned capacity of 20bcm/y, expandable to 40bcm/y.

The Solidarity Ring, by contrast, will focus on the upgrading and modernization of existing infrastructure, and construction of short interconnectors where needed, with an initial target of 5bcm/y and a view toward a possible expansion eventually to 20bcm/y. The hopes are that the Solidarity Ring will be open for business by the end of 2025.

The implementation of the project would lead to the connection of the existing key infrastructure on the territory of the Slovak Republic (connected to the western gas hubs), with the gas infrastructure on the territory of Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and Azerbaijan. In fact, the gas would almost certainly be sourced from Azerbaijan.

This project satisfies the EU’s policy goal, to strengthen the diversification of natural-gas transport routes and sources in the regions of Central and Southeastern Europe. These regions are historically highly dependent on Russian gas supplies.

The Solidarity Ring falls into the framework of the MoU on Strategic Partnership in the Energy Sector, signed in July 2022 between the European Commission and Azerbaijan. In April of this year, an MoU was signed in Sofia, Bulgaria, to support cooperation among operators of natural-gas transmission networks from Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, and the Azerbaijani energy company SOCAR.

Line D pipeline

Meanwhile, Turkmenistan is benefiting from China’s new advancement of the long-delayed “Line D” pipeline, which would be the fourth export pipeline to China from the rich reserves in the southeast of the country. Line D is projected to carry 30bcm/y and was estimated in 2014 to cost US$6.7 billion, although the price of steel on the world market has nominally doubled since then.

In a parallel move, just this week, China, playing hardball with Russia, made it absolutely clear that Moscow would have to cover the construction and operation costs of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project, without advance payment from China for expected quantities to be received. Beijing is thus playing Turkmenistan and Russia off against one another.

From a standpoint of grand strategy, it is easy to see why China might prefer to prioritize the pipeline from Turkmenistan. It is strategically more valuable. In particular, it aligns with Beijing’s goals of expanding trade with Central Asia and ensuring stability in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region. Russia, on the other hand, in the face of Western sanctions, has little choice for its Siberian gas other than to export to China.

Nevertheless, importing gas from Turkmenistan has been costlier for China compared with Russian gas, since Turkmenistan has always sought payment aligned with global pricing practices.

This bilateral price negotiation will be tough. Yet at the same time, while China’s new contracts for imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar and the United States complicate such negotiations, they will do so only to Beijing’s advantage.

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Assassins abroad reflect a more assertive India

A recent indictment from the United States Department of Justice has alleged an Indian security official was involved in attempting to assassinate a citizen of the US and Canada in New York.

The alleged target, Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, is a leader in the Sikh separatist movement and has been involved in organizing referendums for the establishment of Khalistan, a proposed independent Sikh state in northern India.

The indictment also states that there is a link between the foiled attempt to kill Pannun and the murder of Canadian Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey, British Columbia, earlier this year.

The Indian government said it was investigating the allegations, and had established a committee to “address the security concerns highlighted by the US government.”

This announcement by the US could have potential ramifications for Indian politics, both at home and abroad. However, it is unlikely to have any significant impact on next year’s general elections, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be seeking his third term in office.

Bolstering Modi’s strongman image

Canadian allegations against India had handed Modi an excellent political platform for the next general elections.

It sent a clear message that India’s government would, under no circumstances, tolerate any threats to the country.

India’s foreign policy has become more muscular under Modi; and that’s a strategy that resonates with his supporters.

His landslide victory in 2019 had a lot to do with support for India’s “surgical strikes” in Pakistan-controlled Kashmir in 2016 in response to an attack that killed 19 Indian soldiers.

Following Canada’s allegations of Indian involvement in Nijjar’s killing, the Modi government was once again able to successfully generate a narrative against Canada in general and the Liberal party in particular.

India’s narrative consists of four parts:

  • Canada is a safe haven for terrorists, extremism and organized crime, and there is a nexus between Indo-Canadian gangsters and Sikh separatists working with Pakistan’s intelligence agency.
  • The Canadian government has consistently ignored repeated requests from India to take actions against Khalistani “terrorists” operating on Canadian soil.
  • Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is pandering to the large Sikh diaspora in Canada.
  • The Liberal minority government is dependent on support from the New Democratic Party leader, Jagmeet Singh, a Sikh supposedly sympathetic to the Khalistani cause.

Indian news media and politicians have repeated the official discourse constantly for weeks.

While India was quick to dismiss Canadian allegations, it has adopted a much more cautious approach to the US indictment. India has much to lose by alienating the Biden administration as both countries have invested a great deal in enhancing Indo-US relations and making India a central ally in America’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

Meanwhile, Indo-Canadian relations have been chilly since 2015, largely due to Khalistan activity in Canada. Moreover, annual trade between India and Canada is worth about $12 billion while trade with the U.S. is worth $192 billion. In short, India has much more to lose by alienating the US than it does by taking a hard line with Canada.

President Joe Biden with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the summit of the Group of 20 industrial and emerging-market countries in Nusa Dua, Bali, Indonesia, 2022. Image: NBC / Youtube Screengrab

Furthering authoritarianism

On the surface, it might appear that news of the US indictment could fracture India’s muscular foreign policy. However, this episode is unlikely to have much impact on India’s domestic politics. Modi remains popular with an approval rating of 78%.

He is credited, among other things, with India’s emergence as a global power, with his effective handling of border issues with China, for taking on Pakistan and with the success of the country’s space program.

The 26-party opposition coalition, Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), is unlikely to challenge Modi on this particular issue. The national defense narrative is a strong one, and India’s territorial integrity is a sacrosanct issue for all political parties.

However, among some minority communities, Muslims and Sikhs, both at home and abroad, revelations of assassination plots could raise serious concerns. The Modi government’s aggressive pursuit of a Hindu nationalist agenda, its repression of minorities and control over dissent have become more entrenched.

India’s parliament is in the process of amending its sedition laws. If the changes are passed, endangering the unity and integrity of the country could result in life-term imprisonment. These proposed changes to the already harsh and draconian penal code will only further criminalize dissent.

The Modi government is ensuring that dissenting voices, particularly those of minority communities, completely disappear from Indian democracy.

Amplifying the Khalistan movement

India’s campaign of global repression of Sikh separatists could have the effect of unifying the Sikh diaspora. It was in 2018 that Pannun came up with the idea of holding non-binding referenda to mobilize the global Sikh community.

That year, Sikh activists announced their campaign for holding referendums starting in 2021 across multiple cities. The first referendum took place in London on October 31, 2021, followed by eight more referenda during 2022 and 2023 in the cities of Leeds and Luton (United Kingdom), Geneva (Switzerland), Brampton, Mississauga and Surrey (Canada), Melbourne (Australia), and Brescia (Italy).

People line up outside of the Guru Nanak Sikh Gurdwara in Surrey, B.C. to vote in a Khalistan referendum on Oct. 29, 2023. Photo: The Canadaian Press via The Conversation / Ethan Cairns

Pannun announced plans for referenda in Punjab and the US and for another round of voting in Canadian cities. In October, following Trudeau’s announcement of credible allegations against the Indian government, thousands of voters turned out to participate in a referendum in Surrey, BC, some coming from as far as the cities of Edmonton and Calgary.

While only a small minority of the Sikh diaspora is thought to support creating a separate Sikh state, the majority were likely registering their disapproval of India and its repression of minorities. The memory of the 1984 anti-Sikh riots, which left thousands dead in the wake of Indira Gandhi’s assassination, remains very much alive within the entire Sikh community to this day.

But the politics of Khalistani referenda relies heavily on images depicting so-called “martyrs” (separatists killed by India) and Indian diplomats as the assassins of Sikh activists.

The desecration of Hindu temples also has the potential to create division within the Indian Hindu and Sikh diasporas. Canadian Liberal MP Chandra Arya has accused Khalistan supporters of targeting Hindu temples.

As more information comes out, the Canadian government will need to carefully manage its relations with India and the relationship between diasporic communities here.

Reeta Tremblay is an adjunct and professor emerita of politics at the University of Victoria.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

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Is Hersh story on secret Ukraine peace talks true?

There is a story, published by Seymour Hersh and picked up by Russian media, that Ukrainian General Valerii Zaluzhny and Russian General Valery Gerasimov are secretly negotiating a deal that could potentially end the Ukraine war.

The story is supported by “anonymous” sources, allegedly in the US intelligence establishment. The question is: Is the report true?  

The Russian report on the Hersh story has disappeared.

What is true is that the relationship between Zaluzhny, the overall commander of Ukraine’s armed forces, and Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, is very bad.  So bad, in fact, that Zaluzhny did not show up on the last day of November for a meeting between Zelensky and his generals.  On top of that, Zelensky is reported to have ordered Ukraine’s regional governors not to speak with Zaluzhny.

Given the estrangement between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, anything that Zaluzhny might or could negotiate should run into a Kiev brick wall.  Zelensky has made it clear that the Ukrainian government will not – nor , legally, can it (because of legislation prohibiting it) – negotiate with Moscow.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny, pictured above, told Time magazine last year that when studying military doctrine he had read all the publications of Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, 17 years his senior. Photo: Front News

The Russian papers, following Hersh, say there are two broad conditions for a deal between the generals.  The first is at least some kind of recognition by Ukraine of Russian control of the territory it presently occupies. The second, which seems altogether impossible, is that Russia would not object to Ukraine joining NATO provided there are no NATO bases in Ukraine.

Russian General Valerry Gerasimov. Photo: Moscow Times

The first idea on territory is consistent with a trial balloon that Zaluzhny floated some months ago in two different ways.  The first was his hint that Ukraine could live without the territories Russia is occupying. The second was that to best preserve Ukraine it would be wise for Ukraine’s army to pull back from the line of contact and set up strong defense perimeters. 

Zaluzhny’s idea was to stop the bleeding down of Ukraine’s army and to prepare for the future.  Ironically, Zelensky is now saying the same thing when it comes to the disposition of Ukraine’s military forces.

Whatever Zaluzhny and Zelensky say about the war, the fighting continues in earnest along the line of contract stretching from north to south in the east, and across the south all the way to the little bridgehead at Krynki, not far from Kherson.

It is likewise true that the Russians are advancing, especially in Avdiivka where the Russians recently made important territorial gains, in the area around Bakhmut, in Kupyansk and Liman and elsewhere.

There is no sign suggesting either that Russia slowing its current operation or that Ukraine is pulling back forces. In fact, Ukraine is trying to redeploy and rotate troops in the main areas of contact.

That throws a lot of cold water on the notion that any deal is in the offing.

In fact, the idea that Russia would accept a NATO presence in Ukraine as part of a deal is one that would require quite political agreements that would have to include NATO in any deal. NATO is not talking in a way that suggests anyone has tried to bring the NATO security alliance into a dialog.

The continued fighting and Russian gains do not mean that Ukraine will not pull back or that Russia will stop pushing forward. However, they do mean that if there are talks going on they are not at a stage that is satisfactory to either side – meaning there are no battlefield gestures.

One key indicator is the bad reception that Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, received at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s high-level meeting in Northern Macedonia this week. There are several items coming from that meeting that require attention.

First off, this is the first time since the start of the Russian “Special Military Operation” that Russia’s foreign minister traveled to a NATO country (a visit to the United Nations in New York actually is not technically a visit to the United States).  To get there Lavrov’s aircraft was denied overflight permission by Bulgaria, so his plane flew over Turkey and Greece instead. That snub hardly indicates any peace process.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the 30th OSCE Ministerial Meeting in Skopje. Photo: Russian Foreign Ministry Press Service

Secondly, the OSCE was part of both the 2014 and 2015 Minsk Agreements that sought to end the crisis in Ukraine. The OSCE was to supervise the agreement, deal with violations, and help with implementation. The Northern Macedonia meeting has destroyed OSCE credibility as a peace partner, which could have been important in a final deal.

Thirdly, Lavrov poured a lot of hot water on any peace deal. “We aren’t seeing any signals from Kiev or its masters about their readiness to seek any kind of political settlement,” Lavrov told reporters at the security conference. “We see no reason to review our goals.”

It is always possible that Lavrov has not been briefed on the meeting or meetings involving Gerasimov and Zaluzhny, assuming they have really taken place. (Not only can we not be sure, but no one can yet say where they would have been conducted.)

Another theory is that Seymour Hersh has been sold a bill of goods, or duped, take your choice.

If Zaluzhny has become an impediment to the US effort to support Ukraine and push more arms into Zelensky’s hands, then how do you trash him?  You do it by floating the idea he is secretly negotiating with the enemy. The usual word for that is “traitor.”  That would explain the Russian news reports on Hersh’s Substack report, since the Russians would be happy to undermine the Kiev regime.

Stephen Bryen, who served as staff director of the Near East Subcommittee of the
US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as a deputy undersecretary of defense
for policy, currently is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute.

This article was originally published on his Weapons and Security Substack. It is republished with kind permission.

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