Tensions still simmering
Despite the alliance government’s apparent lack of unity, the league changed hands this year.
But, this unity has been put through a “durability check” and is far from watertight, according to a political cause.
Most institutions in Thai record have fallen as a result of a military coup, an inner collapse marked by the departure of alliance partners ‘ assistance, or a prime minister who was removed by court order.
The Constitutional Court in August saw the resignation of the top as Srettha Thavisin’s government’s fate.
Mr Srettha may be a real estate tycoon, but he failed to transmit social skills.
His steadfastness as prime minister was viewed as being entirely due to the support for him from the judgement Pheu Thai Party.
” Mr Srettha’s legs were not planted firmly on the ground, but to speak”, the source said.
He received criticism for failing to demonstrate strong leadership and initiative skills.
Pheu Thai’s premier 10, 000-baht digital wallet handout plan, for example, struggled to get off the drawing table under him despite the policy being the party’s primary election promise, required by law to get implemented.
He was also one of the region’s most globe-trotting prime ministers, having made 12 foreign visits to 16 countries in scarcely a season, from Aug 22, 2023, to Aug 14, 2024.
According to the cause, Mr. Srettha may have been chosen by the ruling party to serve as the president’s “face,” while the stalwarts in Pheu Thai were in charge of the party’s social affairs in the background.
According to the source, that is how Mr. Srettha avoided hot potatoes falling into his lap during the government’s honeymoon after the general election next year.
But, as prime minister, he could not manage to continually skirt around social issues, some of which were potentially dangerous to the alliance government’s survival.
Notably, one tender concern Mr Srettha could not dance around concerned his declared purpose to relist cannabis as a narcotic, which properly pitted Pheu Thai against Bhumjaithai, the next largest partnership party, which championed cannabis ‘ legalisation.
Mr. Srettha revealed his plan to stop cannabis use after it became illegal in 2022 to the media shop France 24.
He argued that the social benefits of legalizing cannabis outweigh the financial benefits of the plant being used for clinical and research purposes, and that reclassifying it as a narcotic should be done.
Mr. Anutin criticised the proposed hemp recriminalization strategy in July, claiming it lacked compelling evidence to support re-classifying the plant as a narcotic.
He urged the prime minister to conduct more research before re-inspecting marijuana as a opiate.
Mr. Srettha reversed in August after being under pressure from growing opposition in some circles, including those that had invested in cannabis-related research and clinical developments.
He and Mr. Anutin made a compromise on the cannabis-related matter by passing a bill to control its use, a sign that the plant may be removed from the drug list.
But, Mr. Srettha’s apparent facial reduction was only a slap on the wrist in comparison to what was to come and what would ultimately determine his fate.
The appointment of former prisoner Pichit Chuenban as a government secretary was found by the Constitutional Court on August 14th. After less than a month in business, the decision led to Mr. Srettha being removed.
Mr Srettha was succeeded by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest child of Pheu Thai’s de facto leader, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. One of Pheu Thai’s two remaining excellent minister individuals was Ms. Paetongtarn.
Although her government visits weren’t completed until September 3, Ms. Paetongtarn took over the company two days after Mr. Srettha was ousted.
Observers concur that the Srettha leadership has inherited a love-hate partnership with Bhumjaithai.
Specifically, the Khao Kradong land controversy in Buri Ram, Bhumjaithai’s political stronghold, has grabbed headlines as it threatens to ignite a dispute between the State Railway of Thailand ( SRT ) and the Department of Lands ( DoL ), which could escalate into open conflict and strain relations between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai.
After all, Bhumjaithai’s travel secretary Suriya Jungrangreangkit of Pheu Thai oversees the SRT, while Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, who is in charge, oversees the DoL.
Also, the Chidchob community, which runs several firms, including the Buriram International Circuit and a 32, 600-seat sports facility, is linked to the discussion.
The debate centers on 5, 083 area plots in the Khao Kradong region of Buri Ram’s Muang area, which total 5, 083 ra. The SRT is attempting to regain these narratives, accusing the DoL of being dishonest because it has issued area papers to undocumented residents.
After the Supreme Court determined that the property belonged to the SRT in 2021, the SRT requested that the DoL withdraw its 900 area name activities and remove all tenants from its home in a lawsuit filed with the Administrative Court in September 2021. Of the 900 area title deeds, 12, which cover 179 ray, apparently belonged to the Chidchob home.
A new topic appeared that appeared to be causing a wedge between Pheu Thai, United Thai Nation, and the opposition’s Palang Pracharath group as the Khao Kradong dispute was far from resolved.
The problem was the act that Pheu Thai list-MP Prayut Siripanich proposed to amend the Defence Ministry Administration Act, which he thought lacked a clear invitation for politicians to get involved in the Defence Ministry’s affairs.
Mr Anutin spoke out against the bill, insisting it would not prevent a coup, contrary to Mr Prayut’s argument. He explained that if politicians did not use a pretext for a coup, no law was watertight enough to keep a lid on it.
Eventually, Mr Prayut agreed to pull the bill for revisions. He insisted, though, that he would submit it to parliament for consideration after the revisions were finished.
Thaksin: Lost his charm
Too reliant on just one man
There are still many people who are still committed to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, despite the split between the red-shirt movement.
The party’s success in these two northeastern provinces was still heavily dependent on Thaksin, according to the victories of the ruling Pheu Thai Party’s victory in the Provincial Administrative Organization ( PAO ) chairman elections in Udon Thani and Ubon Ratchathani.
In the Udon Thani election on Nov 24, Pheu Thai candidate Sarawut Phetphanomporn captured 327, 487 votes, defeating his rival from the main opposition People’s Party ( PP ), Kanisorn Khurirang, with 268, 675 votes.
In last Sunday’s poll in Ubon Ratchathani, Pheu Thai candidate Karn Kalptinan secured a decisive victory, with unofficial results showing Mr Karn, a former PAO chief, winning with 387, 456 votes.
Both winners credited their victory to Thaksin’s support during campaigning.
However, Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University in Chon Buri, told the Bangkok Post the PAO wins are no cause for celebration.
Pheu Thai’s run of victories has failed to grow its red-shirt fan base, he said, adding that Udon Thani’s party vote increased by only 1,600 despite the party having invested significant resources in election preparation.
” With a result like this, to me, Thaksin has already lost”, he said.
Mr. Olarn claimed that hard-core red-shirt supporters have allegiance to the orange camp, making reference to the main opposition party, and are not likely to return.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said most PAO election wins in 29 provinces to date are shared between Pheu Thai and coalition partner Bhumjaithai.
The chairs resigned before their terms ended in a bid to win re-election, so the polls were held. Elections will be held on February 1 in the remaining provinces to elect replacements for those who finished their terms this month.
Prior to Thaksin’s return, according to Mr. Stithorn, the party had never given much thought to local elections, which suggests that it is working hard to regain its strength and take back the top spot in national politics.
The ruling party lost to the PP’s predecessor, the now-dissolved Move Forward Party, in last year’s general election.
Due to the MFP’s position on the lese majeste law, it is now leading the coalition government.
Pheu Thai intends to win at least 200 seats in the 2027 general election, and the party thinks its election results will help it achieve its goals.
Mr. Stithorn cited the unbreakable bond between Thaksin and some of the red-shirt movement, as evidenced by the PAO poll victories in both Udon Thani and Ubon Ratchathani.
Despite Thaksin having been in self-imposed exile for nearly two decades, the connection between him and certain red shirts runs strong, he said, calling this group” Thaksin-red”.
But he pointed out the “ideology-bound red shirts”, who once revered Thaksin as a democratic icon, no longer support him. Thaksin has reached out to this group, but his call went unanswered.
” It’s probably safe to say that Thaksin has lost his charm with the ideology red shirts”, said the analyst.
Thaksin has no way of regaining the support of the Orange Camp, which has since changed camps. According to Mr. Stithorn, the former premier doesn’t seem to understand what younger voters want.
Pheu Thai’s control of the country’s 140 House seats and boosting its vote-rigging lead to a more likely outcome of 200 seats.
However, the strategy would involve poaching MPs from coalition partners.
Pheu Thai may hope to win 10 more seats by poaching candidates from Bhumjaithai, which currently has 70, and half from the United Thai Nation ( UTN) Party, which currently has 36.
The UTN’s support base may shrink as former prime minister Prayut Chan-o-cha retires from politics, and Pheu Thai could take many of its seats.
The Palang Pracharath Party ( PPRP ), which may face a change in its leadership before the upcoming election, may receive more seats. The 40-MP PPRP, which was excluded from the Paetongtarn administration, will likely struggle in the lead-up to the next polls.
More than 20 MPs have joined the Kla Dharma Party, which divides the party in the middle. With its diminishing popularity and resources, the rest, who opted to remain with party leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon, will face a difficult election battle.
According to Mr. Stithorn, Pheu Thai will have to do whatever it takes to increase its MP numbers, most likely at the expense of its coalition partners. As a result, the next government, which Pheu Thai hopes to lead, is predicted to have a thin majority.
Even if the opposition party wins the next election, these parties and Pheu Thai won’t cooperate with the PP.
The current coalition will need to unite under Pheu Thai’s leadership, which would require a government that can barely maintain its head above water, he said.
