Barkar Nash (Page 22)

Since the formation of the government, the decision Pheu Thai and its coalition partner Bhumjaithai have had a turbulent marriage, with their association seen as more of a social need than a true empire.

Following Bhumjaithai secretary-general Chaichanok Chidchob’s declaration that he opposed the government-sponsored entertainment complex act, the parties ‘ animosity has just grown.

Due to this, Pheu Thai heavyweights have begun to question the commitment of their partner in the alliance.

The parties have been at odds with one another since the Pheu Thai-led state first started to try to categorize marijuana as a opioid despite Bhumjaithai supporting decriminalization as its main policy.

Additionally, there are area issues involving significant parties’ important players, which have increased the division.

The rights of the Alpine Golf Course by the Shinawatra family is one of the two cases, while the other involves property owned by Buri Ram and Khao Kradong, which is connected to Newin Chidchob, Bhumjaithai’s de facto leader.

Important decisions are made by organizations that closely align with the opposing camps, despite the government reviewing both situations.

The Ministry of Interior, which is mostly influenced by the Bhumjaithai Party, will determine the fate of the Alpine Golf Course.

The Pheu Thai-controlled Transport Ministry is currently in charge of reversing the title deed for the Khao Kradong area, which is located on property owned by the State Railway of Thailand.

Game discussion

The leisure complex act is the most recent contentious issue between the parties.

Mr. Chaichanok, who is Mr. Newin’s child, declared in parliament earlier this month that he would not participate in its concern.

Although Bhumjaithai head Anutin Charnvirakul acknowledged that Mr. Chaichanok’s stance is private, Mr. Chaichanok’s choice may be disregarded. The second-largest group in the state, the Bhumjaithai Party, is unlikely to pass the bill without its help.

The Bangkok Post believes the day is not yet mature for a cut, whether through a House breakup or the resignation of the prime minister. However, cracks in their relationship are becoming more obvious.

Both events also require one another to fulfill their plan commitments and bolster public support ahead of the upcoming general election. Social negotiation will remain for the next two years until voters return to the elections.

The partnership between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai is carefully poised, according to Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute.

Although tensions between the parties did continue, they are unlikely to get to the point where a split is expected.

Pheu Thai appears socially diminished, especially in comparison to Bhumjaithai, which has grown stronger and is seen as better prepared for a subsequent election.

But, Pheu Thai Party leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the prime minister, has the sole power to dissolve the House.

A House breakdown may have a negative impact on Pheu Thai in the present, he said, adding that the party could suffer major loss in a quick election.

Bhumjaithai also is not guaranteed to gain from a House breaking up sooner. ” Bhumjaithai won’t necessarily receive the votes lost by Pheu Thai.”

Women’s Party in the arms

It’s possible that a sizable portion of votes could instead be cast in the People’s Party ( PP ), which could complicate the political landscape further, he said.

The legality of Bhumjaithai formforming a government, even though it is not the largest party, may be questioned if the PP wins more than 200 seats and Bhumjaithai wins the election with about 120 seats.

According to Mr. Stithorn, a circumstance in which the election winner is pushed to the opposition may cause a public outcry. According to the scientist, Bhumjaithai even appears to be aware of this issue.

Pheu Thai is not too fragile or too powerful, he said, which is the ideal situation for the coalition group.

The PP has the greatest chance of succeeding if Pheu Thai becomes very weak. However, if the ruling party becomes very powerful, it could be at the Bhumjaithai’s cost because it would mean that the political parties that depend on it would lose to the Pheu Thai Party.

He claimed that Pheu Thai is then focused on delivering its plan claims, which include the proposed casino-entertainment challenging, as a crucial component of the project.

Bhumjaithai believes that if the program develops, it will only benefit Pheu Thai, he said, adding that Bhumjaithai is skeptical of any policy that might provide the ruling party a social benefit.

Mr. Stithorn said it could be used as a social bargaining tool to stifle tension with Bhumjaithai, who is expected to insist on keeping its current case limit.

He claimed that a significant reshuffle that assigns important ministries to Pheu Thai would cause social discord.

” For the time being, both parties are likely to remain negotiating within the existing power-sharing design. There will be some backlash, he said,” but try not to push too hard.”

He stated that the condition will persist until Pheu Thai you meet the PP’s acceptance while Bhumjaithai works to push important guidelines to increase voting support.

A House breakdown might be on the cards if the social situation gets to the point where both parties feel confident about going to the elections.

After all parties have secured their wishes, he said, “it’s likely to come to the end of the government’s term.”

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The relationship between the ruling Pheu Thai and its coalition partner Bhumjaithai has been bumpy since the government was formed, with their partnership seen more as a political necessity than a genuine alliance.

Recently, disunity between the parties seems to have escalated following Bhumjaithai secretary-general Chaichanok Chidchob’s declaration that he disagreed with the government-sponsored entertainment complex bill.

This has prompted Pheu Thai heavyweights to question the loyalty of their coalition partner.

From the start of the Pheu Thai-led government, the parties have clashed over several key issues, including Pheu Thai’s attempt to reclassify cannabis as a narcotic despite Bhumjaithai backing decriminalisation as a flagship policy.

There are also land disputes involving key figures of the parties that have intensified the split.

One case concerns the Shinawatra family’s ownership of the Alpine Golf Course, while the other involves land in Khao Kradong, Buri Ram, linked to Bhumjaithai’s de facto leader Newin Chidchob.

Although both cases are being reviewed by the authorities, key decisions rest with agencies closely aligned with the rival camps.

The fate of the Alpine Golf Course hinges on a ruling by the Ministry of Interior, which is largely influenced by the Bhumjaithai Party.

Meanwhile, the decision whether to revoke the title deed for the Khao Kradong land, which sits on property belonging to the State Railway of Thailand, now lies with the Pheu Thai-controlled Transport Ministry.

The latest point of contention between the parties is the entertainment complex bill.

Earlier this month, Mr Chaichanok, who is Mr Newin’s son, declared in parliament that he disagreed with the bill and would not take part in its consideration.

Although Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul assured that Mr Chaichanok’s stance is personal, Mr Chaichanok’s move cannot be ignored. Without support from the Bhumjaithai Party, the second largest party in the government, the bill is unlikely to clear the House.

While cracks in their relationship are increasingly visible, the Bangkok Post believes the time is not yet ripe for a split — whether by means of a House dissolution or the prime minister stepping down.

Both parties still need each other to deliver on their policy promises and build public support ahead of the next general election. Over the next two years, political bargaining will continue until voters return to the polls.

Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said the alliance between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai is delicately poised.

While tensions between the parties will persist, they are unlikely to escalate to the point where a split is inevitable.

In his view, Pheu Thai appears politically weakened, especially when compared to Bhumjaithai, which has grown stronger and is seen as better prepared for a future election.

However, the authority to dissolve the House lies solely with Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, leader of the Pheu Thai Party.

Under current circumstances, a House dissolution could backfire on Pheu Thai due to its waning popularity, he said, adding the party could suffer significant losses in a snap election.

Bhumjaithai is not guaranteed to benefit from an early House dissolution, either. “The votes lost by Pheu Thai will not necessarily flow to Bhumjaithai.

It’s possible that a large portion of votes could go to the People’s Party (PP) instead, which could further complicate the political landscape,” he said.

If the PP is to capture over 200 seats and Bhumjaithai emerges the first runner-up with about 120 seats, the legitimacy of Bhumjaithai forming a government, when it is not the largest party, will be called into question.

Mr Stithorn said that such a scenario, where the election winner is excluded and pushed to the opposition, could spark a public backlash. Bhumjaithai also appears to be aware of this problem, according to the analyst.

The ideal situation for the coalition party is one where Pheu Thai is not too weak or too strong, he said.

If Pheu Thai becomes too weak, the PP stands to gain the most. But if the ruling party grows too strong, it could be at the Bhumjaithai’s expense, as it means political families on which these parties rely would defect to the Pheu Thai Party.

He said Pheu Thai is now focused on delivering its policy promises to regain public confidence and a key project is the proposed casino-entertainment complex.

If the scheme moves forward, Bhumjaithai sees it as a win solely for Pheu Thai, he said, adding Bhumjaithai remains wary of any policy that could give the ruling party a political advantage.

On a cabinet reshuffle, Mr Stithorn said it could be used as a political bargaining tool to ease tension with Bhumjaithai, which is expected to insist on retaining its existing cabinet quota.

A large-scale reshuffle that reallocates key ministries to Pheu Thai would lead to a political split, he said.

“For now, both parties are likely to continue negotiating within the current power-sharing arrangement. There will be some pushback…but not pushing too hard,” he said.

He said the situation will persist until Pheu Thai can match the popularity of the PP while Bhumjaithai works on pushing key policies to strengthen voter support.

Should the political situation reach this point where both parties feel confident about going to the polls, a House dissolution could be on the cards.

“It’s likely toward the end of the government’s term, once all parties have secured what they want,” he said.

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