Barkar Nash (Page 1,108)

The countdown to a general election typically prompts some voters to strategise how they will vote on the big day.

With the May 14 polls around the corner, so-called tactical voting is being planned by some voters to prevent their least favourite parties garnering too many House seats.

A political analyst said strategic voting in the upcoming polls may occur at the expense of the Pheu Thai Party, which could jeopardise its goal of winning the election by a landslide.

Where Pheu Thai stands to lose from tactical voting could well be its closest ally, the Move Forward Party’s (MFP) gain.

According to the analyst, the biggest surprise may be where the tactical votes come from.

And thanks to the re-introduced dual-ballot system, such a voting practice is predicted to deliver a particularly potent result.

Recent opinion polls have been encouraging for the MFP, which has fared consistently better with each survey in the past several weeks.

At the same time, Pheu Thai’s rating has dipped, which spurred the party into examining where it has gone wrong in its campaign.

It was reasonable to assume the party had banked on its 10,000-baht digital wallet scheme to give its election standing more lift. Despite being ridiculed by critics as a populist handout, the 560-billion-baht programme, in which 10,000 baht will be spent within six months at shops within a 4-kilometre radius of where people live, was expected by the party to be the ace to trump economic stimulus election pledges by other parties.

However, a cautious review of the policy by some experts, who feared spending of such magnitude might harm fiscal discipline, has been a political headwind for the party. This might be the reason for the dip in Pheu Thai’s popularity.

As both Pheu Thai and the MFP belong to the self-styled “pro-democracy” camp, some supporters who traditionally back one party might switch to another one at the polls over a dubious campaign policy.

The expert said the switching of support within an alliance could explain the MFP’s improved performance in opinion polls.

The two parties have warmed to one another in their common political stance, although that may be as far as the amicability goes. Pheu Thai has made it abundantly clear on numerous occasions that it is doing everything in its power to sweep the election and rule the next government solo.

It is a message repeated many times over by Srettha Thavisin, former president and chief executive of the Sansiri real estate empire, who is now one of Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates.

Pheu Thai was viewed as having snubbed the MFP’s hand of friendship when the latter earlier voiced its willingness to form a government with Pheu Thai.

In many constituencies, the two parties are, in fact, set on a collision course. Their candidates have rapidly become embroiled in an intense neck-and-neck race.

Meanwhile, according to the expert, some voters who oppose the two parties were mulling over whether they should adopt tactical voting in the polls.

These voters, who are zealous supporters of the likes of the Palang Pracharath Party, the United Thai Nation Party, and the Democrat Party, might be considering this option if they think their favourite candidate does not stand a chance of winning in constituencies where Pheu Thai and the MFP are top contenders.

The voters who dislike Pheu Thai more than they do the MFP and dread it clinching a landslide win could be tempted to cast their constituency ballots for MFP candidates while voting for their actual favourite parties in the party list system.

The expert said the “sacrificial” votes might be embraced under the dual-ballot election, where the votes of the defeated candidates will be thrown away.

If it had been the single-ballot method, as in the previous election, the votes cast for the losing candidates would be counted toward their respective parties’ nationwide tally and converted into party list seats, provided there were enough votes.

Instead of wasting their votes, some voters might opt to strategise and resort to keeping their biggest foes from becoming too big in the next election, the expert said.

First might not be enough

Many opinion polls suggest Pheu Thai is on course for a big win at the general election. Unfortunately though, the party’s chances of forming a coalition government are being thrown into doubt.

By tradition, a political party that captures the most seats is recognised as receiving a mandate to put together a coalition. In the 2019 polls, Pheu Thai, which grabbed the largest share of House seats, proceeded to try and set up a government but failed to achieve the majority it needed.

This time around, analysts are increasingly doubtful parties will observe this long-standing practice which is not constitutionally required. They reckon rivals will jostle hard to try and gain the upper hand in putting together a coalition government, regardless of how many seats they won.

Of all the parties, the United Thai Nation Party (UTN) is believed to have a solid chance of forming a government, although it is projected to finish third or even fourth with about 40 seats.

Some speculate that the jockeying will start as soon as the UTN, which nominated its chief strategist, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha as its No.1 prime ministerial candidate, appears to win at least 25 seats, the minimum number required for a party to be able to nominate a prime minister.

According to observers, the UTN has the edge over its rivals because its bloc does not need to secure a simple majority to form a government. They point to the 250-member Senate’s role in co-selecting a prime minister in parliament.

The UTN is widely believed to have the senators in its pocket, and if its rivals want their candidates to be voted in as prime minister without the need for Senate support, they must win at least 376 House seats — more than half of the combined 750 members of both chambers.

Virtually no observer is convinced that Pheu Thai can muster enough House seats to offset the Senate’s votes. Pheu Thai is forecast to win 220 seats, and together with its potential allies, the Move Forward Party (MFP) and the Seri Ruam Thai Party, they will come up with 260 seats.

According to Stithorn Thananithichot, a political analyst at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, only 240 seats are sufficient for a UTN-led bloc to guarantee success in Gen Prayut’s nomination as the next prime minister and put together a coalition.

The Bhumjaithai Party is projected to win 80 seats, the largest number of seats in the UTN-led bloc, while the UTN and the Democrats will have a combined 80 seats. The bloc can still bank on support from small parties, which are believed to lean toward joining a government rather than sitting in opposition, according to the analyst.

The likelihood of a minority government emerging after the May 14 polls does not surprise Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University.

In Thai politics, anything is possible, and the Palang Pracharath Party-led government is living proof of how a government with a razor-thin majority can manage to complete its four-year term, according to the academic.

If Gen Prayut succeeds in reclaiming the premiership after the next polls, he will come under tremendous pressure during his two-year stint before passing the baton to someone else, said Mr Olarn.

Gen Prayut’s eight-year tenure as prime minister started on April 6, 2017, when the current charter was promulgated, and if he is re-elected after the next polls, he can remain in office until 2025.

According to Mr Olarn, Pheu Thai will find itself in a dilemma after the polls and even if the party manages to lead a coalition government, its administration will likely be short-lived.

While the UTN needs only 250 seats, Pheu Thai must gather at least 350, which means it will have to bring the MFP on board. Negotiating with the MFP over policy goals and cabinet posts will not be an easy task, especially in the areas where they do not see eye to eye, according to Mr Olarn.

It is likely that the MFP will be aiming for major ministries to pursue its policy of bringing about structural changes, including the election of provincial governors and military reforms, said the academic, who noted that the MFP’s demands for the interior and defence portfolios could be a deal breaker.

Moreover, the MFP is likely to block any attempts to bring ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra home, and this can spell doom for the government, he added.

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Political activist Srisuwan Janya has filed a petition with the Election Commission (EC) seeking an investigation into Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Pita Limjaroenrat’s interviews on the subject of the military during the coup in 2006.

Mr Srisuwan, secretary-general of the Association for the Protection of the Thai Constitution, yesterday asked the EC to review a statement made by Mr Pita on a TV programme hosted by well-known newscaster Sorrayuth Suthassanachinda on April 20.

During the interview, Mr Pita claimed that he missed his father’s funeral as he had been detained by officers after returning to the country during the coup in 2006. Mr Srisuwan alleged the statement was part of a move to defame the military and raise the party’s popularity before the May 14 election.

Mr Srisuwan also brought a video clip in which Mr Pita commented on the incident via a talk show hosted by Surivipa Kultangwattana in 2009.

Mr Pita’s statements in the two video clips appear contradictory, according to Mr Srisuwan. In one, Mr Pita claimed he was a member of a working panel under Somkid Jatusripitak, former economic chief of Thaksin Shinawatra’s government, while he told Surivipa that he was studying in Boston, in the US.

Mr Pita also claimed that he was detained at Don Mueang which meant he could not attend his father’s funeral in time, while he told Surivipa he was questioned by officers for four to five hours and did not miss the funeral.

Mr Srisuwan said many had criticised Mr Pita’s statement, particularly Panpree Phathithanukorn, a member of the Pheu Thai Party’s economic panel and Thailand trade representative in the Thaksin Shinawatra government, who said officers just questioned and then released everyone later.

Therefore, Mr Pita’s interviews could breach Section 73 of the Organic Act on the Election of Members of the House of Representatives 2018.

The punishment carries a maximum term of 10 years in jail and/or a fine of between 20,000 and 200,000 baht, as well as a ban from politics for at least 20 years.

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Pattani: The Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre (SBPAC) is preparing to set up a one-stop-service centre to distribute compensation money for owners of fishing boats who wish to leave the industry as a part of the Sustainable Management of Marine Fisheries Resource Project.

Chonthun Sangpoom, deputy secretary-general of the SBPAC, visited the location of the one-stop-service centre assisting fishermen in the three southernmost provinces in tambon Bana in Muang district of Pattani province.

Mr Chonthun said that the project aims to reduce the number of fishing boats in the deep South.

He added that the centre will be operating from May 8, and the owners of 96 fishing boats are expected to be the first to be compensated for exiting the fishing industry.

On Feb 26, a cabinet resolution granted 163 million baht as a compensation fund for fishermen to endorse the government’s goal of reducing the number of fishing boats.

Mr Chonthun said the fund would subsidise fishermen and entrepreneurs in the industry. He explained that fishing boat owners could request compensation at the service centre on weekdays during office hours.

He said fishing boat owners must also apply for approval for boat disassembly.

The process is a joint effort between the SBPAC and Internal Security Operations Command Region 4.

Mr Chonthun further said that the first instalment is worth 80% of the sum while the second is the remaining balance of the compensation.

In September last year, deputy government spokeswoman Rachada Dhnadirek said that 9,608 registered fishing boats were operating, which was above sustainable levels.

To prevent further damage to fishery resources, the government has endorsed compensation for owners of registered fishing boats as well as those who conduct illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing to leave the industry.

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The Samosorn Sannibat Ceremony, or the grand state reception, is set to be held on May 4 to celebrate Coronation Day, according to an announcement by the Cabinet Secretariat.

The announcement, signed on April 21 by cabinet secretary-general Natjaree Ananthasilp, also provided the timeline for all of the royal ceremonies associated with this year’s Coronation Day.

“The cabinet will hold the Samosorn Sannibat Ceremony on May 4 at the Santi Maitri building at Government House,” said government spokesman Anucha Burapachaisri.

Privy Council members, former prime ministers, the president and vice president of a constitutional organisation, heads of government agencies, constitutional members, cabinet members, the governor of Bangkok, the president of the Bangkok Council, ambassadors in Thailand, heads of major public organisations, and other major political figures were invited to the reception, he said.

The ceremony will be televised via the Television Pool of Thailand and Radio of Thailand on the same day, said Mr Anucha.

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The Pheu Thai Party opened its Election Fraud Protection Centre yesterday, with Pol Maj Gen Surasit Sangkhaphong — the former governor of the Government Lottery Office — as its leader.

The head of the party’s legal team, Chusak Sirinil, yesterday said the centre’s main missions would be fraud protection, the inspection of the Election Commission (EC), and the inspection of authorities and the public sector.

Pol Maj Gen Surasit said the centre has come up with methods that allow their members to report election irregularities in real-time through an official Line account.

Prasert Chantararuangthong, the party’s secretary-general, in his capacity as head of its Election Operation Centre, said the party had expected the EC to conduct the election in the most transparent way possible.

However, Mr Prasert said the EC’s errors so far during preparations for the election, such as an error made while sending ballots to voters abroad, and mismatched pamphlet publications, have kept surfacing, affecting voters’ awarenes of the election.

To help combat fraud, Mr Prasert suggested every party send their inspectors to the election booths to scrutinise the advance election on May 7.

He said the party also sent the complaints directly to the EC. They mainly focused on seven questions regarding election-related irregularities.

Those seven questions centred on ballot management, including the number of published ballots, where to store them, and how they will be spread, as well as the party’s requirement of inspectors from elected political parties.

Regarding the party’s notice on irregularities, he said Pheu Thai is questioning the EC’s management of seven million spare ballots, including how it will manage and track them.

In the meantime, the EC has invited 2,113 media representatives to check its guidelines for reporting on fraud, for the sake of transparency.

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Several students evacuated from war-torn Sudan have safely arrived in their hometowns in the southern province of Pattani.

They were part of the first batch of 78 Thai evacuees who arrived in Bangkok on Thursday night after being evacuated from the North African country.

Trinuch Thienthong, Education Minister; R Adm Somkiat Phonprayoon, secretary-general of the Southern Border Provinces Administrative Centre; and Fourth Army chief Lt Gen Santi Sakuntanak welcomed the students at Bo Thong Airport in Pattani’s Nong Chik district.

Upon arrival, some of the students recounted their harrowing experience in Sudan, where fighting between two major factions, which began two weeks ago, has led to the deaths of hundreds of people and the evacuation of foreign nationals.

Fatiha Zeeba, a 22-year-old student studying in Sudan, said dead bodies were scattered in the streets and bombs and military-grade weapons were being used.

She said she was gripped with fear at her campus for over ten days. Hospitals were unable to accommodate the rising number of injured people, Ms Fatiha said.

Fortunately, embassy officials picked her up from her university, she said, before boarding a ship to Jeddah for a flight to Thailand.

“I am very happy to arrive in Thailand. I want to see my parents and relatives,” she said. “However, I am worried about my Thai friends who are still there. I do hope they return home safe.”

Amad Jehmae, another student, said a clash broke out not far from where the Thai students had been.

Everyone needed to stay home, he said, adding people faced shortages of food and water and various shops were closed.

“I may consider studying in Thailand if the clashes continue,” he said, thanking the Thai and Saudi governments for getting him home.

Muhammad Sofron Jehpoo, another student, said he was happy to see his family again, adding life in Sudan was difficult.

He also thanked both government officials for bringing him home.

The first batch of 78 Thai evacuees — 40 women and 38 men — from Sudan arrived at Bangkok’s Don Muang Royal Thai Air Force Base on Thursday night.

They were welcomed by government officials, including Prime Minister and Defence Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, who thanked all agencies involved in the evacuation effort.

The second batch of evacuees is expected to arrive in Thailand today.

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