On the surface, the judgement Pheu Thai Party and coalition partner Bhumjaithai Party may be getting on. But, according to a number of observers, an eruption is on the horizon.
Pheu Thai has long tried to demonize its most important coalition partner and popular Bhumjaithai numbers.
Despite Bhumjaithai head Anutin Charnvirakul’s repeated conviction that the group will march behind Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in the future no-confidence conversation on Monday, the environment within the state is heavy with disdain, according to one observer.
After the opposition announced Ms. Paetongtarn would be its hapless destination for the lone censure debate, critics claim that Pheu Thai’s campaign to use Bhumjaithai as a political assault on the opposition may have cooled.
The spectator claimed that the fact that Ms. Paetongtarn was given the spotlight is a clear indication of the opponent’s belief that the prime minister is the weakest link and that her ouster may lead to a change of government.
For days, who among the government ministers would be targeted for a frying was the subject of big speculation. Several brands were made, including the interior minister and the deputy prime minister, Mr. Anutin.
There was no let-up in Bhumjaithai, starting with Mr. Anutin, who was allegedly the subject of a land seize in Nakhon Ratchasima.
Next month, the Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister’s Advisory Committee expanded its investigation into area invasion in Pak Chong area near Khao Yai National Park.
That included Mr. Anutin’s family’s golfing lessons, Rancho Charnvee Resort and Country Club.
The group inspected three places in the area, according to Thanadol Suwannarit, an advisor to the minister of agriculture and cooperatives.
The commission likewise visited Rancho Charnvee. Mr. Thanadol claimed that the land was legally obtained from the title deed, but he needs to check the timeframe to make sure it was done constitutionally and that some of the property is incorporated into the land reform area of the Agricultural Land Reform Office.
Mr. Anutin reaffirmed that his purchase of the hotel land was improper and that he appreciated the scrutiny. Nevertheless, he suspected the sensor may have been politically motivated and accused whoever may be pulling the strings of being a fool.
The Kla Dharma Party, whose father, Capt. Thamanat Prompow, was a prominent Pheu Thai legislator and has maintained close ties to the ruling party, controls the agriculture department. The Palang Pracharath Party’s KLA Dharma quit and joined the Paetongtarn leadership as the most recent addition.
The supply said a theory, which cannot be dismissed, is that one party– understood to be a reference to Kla Dharma– must demonstrate its “worth” and show its loyalty by undertaking a particular task in exchange for a bigger share of cabinet seats.
The Department of Special Investigation ( DSI)’s investigation into alleged collusion in last year’s multi-tiered Senate elections has spooked the Senate, despite the fact that the Rancho Charnvee saga has not yet settled. Several senators risk losing their seats if such cooperation may be proven in court.
Many of those at risk were said to be the “blue-affiliated” lawmakers. Bhumjaithai is colored orange.
These senators have taken positions on controversial legislative issues, including those involving the amendment to the mandate and vote bills that are opposed to Pheu Thai.
With Bhumjaithai constantly striking a string with the blue senators, the gathering commands large and growing strength within parliament, normally leaving Pheu Thai chagrined, according to the observer.
The observer claimed it would not be surprising to anticipate intense political repression of Bhumjaithai, which has now become the preferred party for many conservative voters impressed by Bhumjaithai’s unwavering support of their political and social values.
The DSI could face legal consequences as a result of the Senate polls ‘ investigation. The Election Commission has asserted it is the sole authority in investigating election-related irregularities, and the Council of State, the government’s legal arm, has also expressed reservations about the DS I’s involvement in the Senate poll case.
Bhumjaithai also has a problem with the government considering whether to revoke the contract to host the MotoGP Grand Prix if the race is deemed uninvestment-worthy in light of the Rancho Charnvee scandal and the Senate poll investigation, which are both far from conclusive.
Since 2018, the race has taken place at Buri Ram’s Chang International Circuit. The northeastern province has long been a political bastion of Bhumjaithai.
The government’s decision to discontinue its support of the MotoGP Grand Prix event could devastate Newin Chidchob’s sporting empire, which is regarded as the de facto ruler of Bhumjaithai.
However, the censure debate may cause Bhumjaithai’s fortunes to change.
With the opposition zeroing in on Ms Paetongtarn in the debate, concern is mounting that the pressure could overwhelm her. The coalition partners may be forced to decide whether to support her or cast a no-confidence vote against her if she leaves the grilling in poor shape.
If Ms. Paetongtarn is unable to garner enough votes, her term as prime minister will be over, and Mr. Anutin will most likely emerge as one of the remaining PM candidates.
However, Mr Anutin has vowed to back Ms Paetongtarn. The pledge, according to the observer, would prevent the premier from getting the axe and could lead to Bhumjaithai’s problems fading and the party having the last laugh.
About to face off in a bout to be played.
Thaksin: Hits back at the PP
After ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s name was omitted from the censure motion, the no-confidence debate against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is now all but certain.
As House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha had warned the opposition not to name an outsider if it wanted the censure debate to proceed as planned, it was uncertain whether it would occur.
According to Mr Wan, directly referring to an outsider would violate parliamentary meeting regulation No. 176 and could subject him and other lawmakers to defamation claims brought by outsiders.
The main opposition People’s Party ( PP ) directly accused her father, Thaksin, of having an influence over his daughter’s administration in its original motion, which was only directed at Ms Paetongtarn. In the revised motion, Thaskin’s name is replaced with a broader term” a family member”.
Thaksin has not wasted a moment attacking the PP outside of parliament.
When asked about the claim that he was acting as a political puppet master, the alleged de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party responded,” I must ask whether they]PP members ] have spoken with the founder of the]now-dissolved ] Future Forward Party ( FFP ) before making a grilling request for the prime minister.
The FFP disbanded over an illegal loan it obtained from its founder and leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, was the predecessor of the Move Forward Party, which reincarnated upon its dissolution into the PP.
When asked for more details, Thaksin mentioned the PP’s recent victory in the provincial administrative organization election ( PAO ) in Lamphun, making reference to Mr. Thanathorn’s involvement in the election campaign.
Weeradet Pupisit, the party’s only winner in a PAO chairman election, is now the head of the Progressive Movement, which has connections to both the disbanded MFP and PP.
According to observers, Thaksin’s remarks are no off-the-cuff comments and are intended to discredit the main opposition party by implying that Pheu Thai and the PP are no different.
According to Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer in political science at Burapha University, Thaksin’s message is quite clear that both parties are run by insiders, and that PP lawmakers should check with their own “real leader” first.
The analyst said that Thaksin’s performance in leading the neo-conservative camp has fallen short of expectations since his return from self-exile abroad because he is unable to lessen the PP’s popularity and make it less of a threat to the conservative bloc.
Former prime minister Srettha Thavisin and Ms Paetongtarn, despite backing from coalition partners, have struggled to deliver results, particularly compared to the Bhumjaithai Party and its allies in the Senate.
Mr. Olarn praised Bhumjaithai under the leadership of “blue faction” senators and Anutin Charnvirakul, who are both a deputy prime minister and interior minister, for their efforts to stop the 2017 constitution’s revision efforts.
Thaksin therefore has little choice but to” stage a public showdown” with the PP, he said, adding that the opposition party also needs to play its part. Moreover, for its own survival, the PP must position itself as the lesser evil, portraying the red camp, or Pheu Thai, as the greater threat.
Some 44 former MFP MPs who are currently employed by the PP are accused of supporting a proposal to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code or the Lese Majority Law. The National Anti-Corruption Commission ( NACC ) is reviewing the case, and if the court decides otherwise, 25 of the current PP lawmakers could be expelled from parliamentary duty.
” With that in mind, the PP must prove its worth and avoid this fate”, he said.
The upcoming no-confidence debate is a high-stakes game for the PP, according to the analyst. If the party’s grilling fails, it will only support the” Hong Kong deal” speculation. The deal involves a meeting that supposedly took place in Hong Kong between powerful political actors labelled as the real movers behind Pheu Thai and MFP.
According to reports, the meeting discussed the possibility of the MFP stepping in to take over the Pheu Thai-led coalition if and when the latter was abandoned.
If the PP doesn’t deliver in the debate, it will give the rumored deal between Thaksin and Mr. Thanathorn in Hong Kong more credibility.
” The opposition must give its best shot ]in the censure debate], and anything less could fuel the claim of a backroom agreement, “he said.
Pheu Thai’s plan of attack is to engage both sides in a fight-and-make-up game with the opposition while maintaining its partnership with Bhumjaithai, which has close ties to the Senate.
Therefore, Thaksin bears the real price for both the political future of the Pheu Thai Party and his daughter’s future.