On the surface, the judgement Pheu Thai Party and coalition partner Bhumjaithai Party may be getting on. Yet, according to a number of observers, an eruption is on the horizon.
For some time, Pheu Thai has tried to demonize its most important Bhumjaithai figures and largest coalition partner.
Despite Bhumjaithai head Anutin Charnvirakul’s repeated conviction that the group will march behind Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in the future no-confidence conversation on Monday, the environment within the state is heavy with disdain, according to one observer.
Critics claim that Pheu Thai’s attempt to use every turn to social assault Bhumjaithai may have cooled since the opposition announced that Ms. Paetongtarn would be its wayward target for the lone censure debate.
The opponent’s view that the leading is the weakest link to the government is clearly demonstrated by the observer, who claimed that her inclusion would enable a change in the government.
For days, who among the government ministers would be targeted for a frying was the subject of big speculation. There were a number of brands thrown around, including interior minister and deputy prime minister Mr. Anutin.
There was no let-up in Bhumjaithai, starting with Mr. Anutin, who was allegedly the subject of a property seize in Nakhon Ratchasima.
Next month, the Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister’s Advisory Committee expanded its investigation into area invasion in Pak Chong area near Khao Yai National Park.
That included the golf training owned by Mr. Anutin’s home, Rancho Charnvee Resort and Country Club.
The group inspected three sites in the region, according to Thanadol Suwannarit, an agriculture and cooperatives minister’s adviser.
The commission also visited Rancho Charnvee. Mr. Thanadol claimed that the land was legally obtained from the title deed, but he needs to check the timeframe to make sure it was done constitutionally and that some of the land is incorporated into the land reform area of the Agricultural Land Reform Office.
Mr. Anutin reaffirmed that the resort’s purchase was justified and that he welcomed the attention. Nevertheless, he suspected the sensor may have been politically motivated and accused whoever may be pulling the strings of being a fool.
The Kla Dharma Party, whose father, Capt. Thamanat Prompow, was a prominent Pheu Thai legislator and has maintained close relationships to the ruling party, controls the agriculture department. The Palang Pracharath Party’s KLA Dharma became the most recent addition to the Paetongtarn leadership after leaving.
The supply said a theory, which cannot be dismissed, is that one party– understood to be a reference to Kla Dharma– must demonstrate its “worth” and show its loyalty by undertaking a particular task in exchange for a bigger share of cabinet seats.
The Department of Special Investigation ( DSI)’s investigation into alleged collusion in last year’s multi-tiered Senate elections among professional groups has spooked the Senate, despite the fact that the Rancho Charnvee saga has not yet settled. Several senators risk losing their seats if such cooperation may be proven in court.
Many of those at risk were said to be the “blue-affiliated” lawmakers. Bhumjaithai is colored orange.
These senators have taken positions on controversial legislative issues, including those involving the amendment to the contract and election bills that are opposed to Pheu Thai.
With Bhumjaithai constantly striking a string with the blue senators, the gathering commands large and growing strength within parliament, normally leaving Pheu Thai chagrined, according to the observer.
The observer claimed it would not be surprising to anticipate intense political repression of Bhumjaithai, which has now become the preferred party for many conservative voters impressed by Bhumjaithai’s unwavering support of their political and social values.
The DSI could face legal consequences as a result of the Senate polls ‘ investigation. The Election Commission has asserted it is the sole authority in investigating election-related irregularities, and the Council of State, the government’s legal arm, has also expressed reservations about the DS I’s involvement in the Senate poll case.
Bhumjaithai also has a problem with the government considering whether to revoke the contract to host the MotoGP Grand Prix if the race is deemed uninvestment-worthy in light of the Rancho Charnvee scandal and the Senate poll investigation, which are both far from conclusive.
Since 2018, the race has taken place at Chang International Circuit in Buri Ram. The northeastern province has long been a political bastion of Bhumjaithai.
The government’s intention to discontinue its support of the MotoGP Grand Prix competition could devastate Newin Chidchob’s sporting empire, which has been hailed as the de facto ruler of Bhumjaithai.
However, the censure debate may alter Bhumjaithai’s fortunes.
With the opposition zeroing in on Ms Paetongtarn in the debate, concern is mounting that the pressure could overwhelm her. The coalition partners may be forced to decide whether to support her or cast a no-confidence vote against her if she leaves the grilling in poor shape.
If Ms. Paetongtarn is unable to garner enough votes, her term as prime minister will be over, and Mr. Anutin will most likely emerge as one of the few remaining PM candidates.
However, Mr Anutin has vowed to back Ms Paetongtarn. The pledge, according to the observer, could lead to Bhumjaithai’s problems fading and the party having the last laugh because it would stop the premier from getting the axe on him.
About to face off in a fight.
Thaksin: Hits back at the PP
After the name of ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra was omitted from the censure motion, the no-confidence debate against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is now all but certain.
Since House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha had warned the opposition against naming an outsider if it wanted the censure debate to proceed as planned, it was uncertain whether it would occur.
According to Mr Wan, directly referring to an outsider would violate parliamentary meeting regulation No. 176 and could subject him and other lawmakers to international defamation lawsuits.
The main opposition People’s Party ( PP ) directly accused her father, Thaksin, of having an impact on his daughter’s government in its original motion, which was specifically directed at Ms. Paetongtarn. In the revised motion, Thaskin’s name is replaced with a broader term” a family member”.
Thaksin has not wasted a moment attacking the PP outside of parliament.
The alleged de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party responded to the accusation that he was acting as a political puppet master:” I must ask whether they]PP members ] have consulted the founder of the]now-dissolved ] Future Forward Party ( FFP ) before making the decision to grill the prime minister over this claim.
The FFP disbanded over an illegal loan it obtained from its founder and leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, was the predecessor of the Move Forward Party, which reincarnated upon its dissolution into the PP.
When asked for more details, Thaksin mentioned Mr. Thanathorn’s involvement in the provincial administrative organization election ( PAO ) in Lamphun and the PP’s recent victory there.
Weeradet Pupisit, the party’s only winner in a PAO chairman election, is now the head of the Progressive Movement, which has connections to both the disbanded MFP and PP.
According to observers, Thaksin’s remarks are no off-the-cuff comments and are intended to discredit the main opposition party by implying that Pheu Thai and the PP are no different.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer in political science at Burapha University, said Thaksin’s message is quite clear that both parties are run by insiders, and that PP lawmakers should check with their own “real leader” first.
The analyst said that since returning from self-exile abroad, Thaksin’s performance in leading the neo-conservative camp appears to have fallen short of expectations because he is unable to lessen the PP’s popularity and make it less of a threat to the conservative bloc.
Former prime minister Srettha Thavisin and Ms Paetongtarn, despite backing from coalition partners, have struggled to deliver results, particularly compared to the Bhumjaithai Party and its allies in the Senate.
Mr. Olarn praised Bhumjaithai under the leadership of “blue faction” senators and Anutin Charnvirakul, who are a deputy prime minister and interior minister, for their efforts to stop the 2017 constitution’s revision efforts.
Thaksin therefore has little choice but to” stage a public showdown” with the PP, he said, stressing that the opposition party must also play its part. Moreover, for its own survival, the PP must position itself as the lesser evil, portraying the red camp, or Pheu Thai, as the greater threat.
Some 44 former MFP MPs who are currently employed by the PP are accused of supporting a proposal to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code or the Lese Majority Law. The National Anti-Corruption Commission ( NACC ) is reviewing the case, and if the court decides otherwise, 25 current PP lawmakers could be expelled from parliamentary duty.
” With that in mind, the PP must prove its worth and avoid this fate”, he said.
The analyst noted that the upcoming no-confidence debate is a difficult one for the PP. If the party’s grilling is unfavorable, it will only support rumors about the” Hong Kong deal.” The deal involves a meeting that supposedly took place in Hong Kong between powerful political actors labelled as the real movers behind Pheu Thai and MFP.
According to reports, the meeting discussed the possibility of the MFP stepping in to take over the conservative bloc in the Pheu Thai-led coalition if and when the latter was abandoned.
If the PP doesn’t deliver in the debate, it will give the rumored deal between Thaksin and Mr. Thanathorn in Hong Kong more credibility.
” The opposition must give its best shot ]in the censure debate], and anything less could fuel the claim of a backroom agreement, “he said.
Pheu Thai’s plan of attack is to play on both sides; it will play a fight-and-make-up with the opposition while keeping an eye on its partnership with Bhumjaithai, which has close ties to the Senate.
Therefore, Thaksin bears the real burden, as his political maneuvering will determine both the future of the Pheu Thai Party and his daughter’s political fate.