The prospect of the next polls in 2027 being run under the current constitution shouldn’t perturb the People’s Party (PP). However, this situation may not tell the whole story.
The main opposition party, which contested the previous general election as the Move Forward Party (MFP) and scored a resounding victory with the most seats garnered, had the current constitution to thank for its overwhelming poll success.
Ironically, it was the current charter, promulgated in April 2017 during the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration, that handed the MFP the victory in the general election last year. The party came out top, even beating the Pheu Thai Party, which had been seen as the frontrunner.
Pheu Thai had declared itself on the verge of a landslide win, only to emerge underwhelmingly second to the MFP, which won an impressive 151 seats compared with Pheu Thai’s 141.
Coming across as a party of mostly young, fired-up politicians, the MFP had worked its magic on social media platforms to rake in votes across many constituencies previously seen as “sure-bet” seats held by powerful political scions.
Its exceptional social media finesse aside, the MFP owed its poll triumph to the dual-ballot election system.
The system, in which one ballot was set aside for picking a constituency candidate and the other for selecting the voter’s party of choice, was reinstated after the 2019 election used a single-ballot method.
This method was attacked by critics for restricting voters’ freedom as it involved just voting for a constituency candidate. Voters were not given a separate ballot to choose their favourite party.
The single-ballot poll was also part of the complicated system of calculating nationwide votes cast for losing candidates to determine each party’s list MP entitlement.
The pressure to ditch the single ballot grew so strong that even the ruling Palang Pracharath Party at the time had no choice but to join the campaign to replace this poll method with a dual ballot system.
But even under the single ballot, the MFP’s predecessor — the Future Forward Party (FFP) — had thrived, having secured a show-stopping third spot with 81 seats. The FFP, an upcoming and relatively novice party, simply defied the expectations of most analysts and observers.
However, the FFP’s success was short-lived. It was disbanded by order of the Constitutional Court for receiving an illegal loan from its leader, Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, in February 2020, barely two years after it was founded. The FFP was replaced by the MFP, which went on to fare spectacularly in last year’s dual-ballot election.
The Constitutional Court also dissolved the MFP for attempting to subvert the constitutional monarchy earlier this year. It has been reincarnated as the PP.
Clearly, the number of ballots in elections was immaterial to either the FFP or the MFP, a political source noted.
“Gazing into the future, we might think the PP stands to repeat the success of its predecessors, especially now that the constitution appears to be nowhere near being amended any time soon,” the source said, explaining that yet another constitutional amendment could see the possibility of the election method being rejigged.
At one point, it was widely reported that Pheu Thai was exploring ways to rein in the PP ahead of the next poll by removing the party list ballot from the two-ballot system. The then MFP captured 39 of 200 list seats on offer, 10 more than Pheu Thai did.
The 39 party-list seats, combined with 112 constituency seats, saw the MFP emerge as parliament’s largest party.
But the PP may not be in for an easy ride in the next election due in 2027.
For one thing, according to the source, the party lacks a leadership that radiates charisma, the kind that came from Mr Thanathorn while he was in charge of the FFP and from Pita Limjaroenrat during his time as MFP leader.
PP leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, on the other hand, does not command such popularity, prompting the party to mount a nationwide campaign for supporters to get acquainted with him.
His quiet persona is not helpful to a party desperate to maintain its support base and win over more support. The PP’s series of defeats in local polls and a by-election since its creation on Aug 9 could chip away at the party’s relevance, the source said.
Mr Natthaphong has been eclipsed of late by PP list MP, Parit Wacharasindhu, who has been in the spotlight for his relentless pursuit of charter amendment, a centrepiece issue the party inherited from the MFP.
From the FFP to the PP, the amendment seen as the answer to the country’s democratic backwardness and equality problems is being pushed amid accusations the PP is ultimately bent on weakening or even abolishing the lese majeste law.
Mr Parit’s quest for the amendment was boosted recently when Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra agreed to meet him to thrash out a charter rewrite process. However, any amendments, time-consuming as they are technically complex, are not predicted to see the light of day under the present government.
Some observers said it should have been Mr Natthaphong, in his capacity as opposition leader, who sought the charter rewrite meeting with the premier.
Thaksin: Campaign ‘helper’
He wasn’t really needed
Pheu Thai may put its win in Udon Thani’s provincial administrative organisation (PAO) chairman election down to various factors, but former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra’s involvement during campaigning had little influence on the outcome, according to observers.
The ruling party enlisted political heavyweights, including Thaksin, father of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and alleged de facto leader of Pheu Thai, to help its candidate Sarawut Pethpanomporn in the Nov 24 local election.
About a week before polling day, Thaksin took to the stage to address thousands of people in Udon Thani’s Muang district and urged them to vote for Mr Sarawut. He also told the crowd that he would not settle for anything less than a landslide victory.
In the wake of Mr Sarawut’s win, political observers maintain that he would have still won without Thaksin’s help.
The Udon Thani PAO chief election was called after the incumbent, Wichian Khaokham, quit just two months before the end of his tenure due to health reasons.
According to unofficial results, Mr Sarawut secured 327,487 votes, defeating his rival Kanisorn Khurirang from the People’s Party (PP), who received 268,675.
The result is seen as revenge for Mr Sarawut, who lost in last year’s general election to Nattapong Pipatchaisiri from the dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP), which is now the PP.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok’s Institute, said Pheu Thai’s dominance in Udon Thani has been strong, pointing out that even at its peak, the MFP under the leadership of Pita Limjaroenrat managed to claim only one seat from the ruling party in Udon Thani.
Pheu Thai usually secures a clean sweep in Udon Thani, known as the northeastern capital of the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD). However, the party lost three out of 10 seats in last year’s polls — one to the MFP and the other two to the Thai Sang Thai Party.
According to the analyst, Thaksin saw the PAO election in Udon Thani not merely as a local poll but as a test of Pheu Thai’s strength ahead of the next general election in 2027.
The party’s win by a margin of 58,812 is significant, but it falls short of the landslide Thaksin was hoping for, said Mr Stithorn.
“At best, he might have stopped the bleeding of party supporters [who shifted to the MFP in the last election]. But he failed to lure back former party loyalists.
“I don’t think Thaksin and Pheu Thai can win them back after the party abandoned the MFP and formed a coalition with the conservative camp,” said the analyst.
The local election failed to generate as much interest as the national polls, resulting in a lower voter turnout. Additionally, Pheu Thai is reported to have mobilised significant resources for this election, said Mr Stithorn.
Despite the loss, the main opposition party gained 80,000 more votes on Nov 24, compared with last year’s election, and this is considered a positive sign for the PP, he said.
The PP also mobilised party bigwigs, including Mr Pita and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, chairman of the Progressive Movement, to help Mr Kanisorn win support. The party suffered several defeats in other local elections and hoped to win in Udon Thani to establish a firm political foothold in the Northeast.
For now, the outcome of the polls confirms that Pheu Thai maintains a solid support base there. But whether this remains the case at the next general election is another matter, Mr Stithorn said.
Much will depend on how well the Pheu Thai-led government performs and whether it can achieve the goals Thaksin outlined at the recent Forbes Global CEO Conference in Bangkok, he pointed out.
At the forum, Thaksin proposed economic reform and suggested that the government protect local businesses while seeking to attract further foreign investment.
“The government should start by pushing for the proposed 25,000-baht base salary for university graduates. If it delivers nothing, Thaksin will be seen as being full of empty promises, and former supporters of Pheu Thai will never return,” said the analyst.
Several observers noted that the Paetongtarn administration’s policies have so far failed to impress, and the government’s 10,000-baht handout scheme, which was launched in September, only benefited vulnerable groups and did not stimulate the economy as expected.